The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 10

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

The pressure is on Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter this week, as they look to maintain a perfect streak of winning weeks in their weekly million dollar pick 'em contest to start the season. Together they discuss sharp calls Simon has received so far this week, dive deeply in the Steelers home game against New Orleans, and feel out how invested they want to get in a Packers underdog opportunity. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-89. Call 1-800-522-470-0 in Wyoming or visit www. www.1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. If you are listening to us live on AMP, welcome. I am joined as I am.

every episode by my co-host, my companion, my BFF, my compadre professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad, on the road. I'm on the road. So if it sounds a little bit quirky, or if you're watching it on video at some point, it looks a little bit quirkier than usual traveling this week. But that doesn't keep us from doing what we do.

No. Which is recording our follow-up episode, the second episode of the week, to talk about week 10 NFL. As a reminder, we will get through and finalize, get closer to finalizing our final five. We will give away our big balls, bed of the week for the second week in a row.

I will have to yell big balls bed of the week from a hotel, and maybe, maybe someone next door is going to get a lucky break. We will pick our scoch roulette. Got a couple complaints. We forgot, again, we were on the road last week. We forgot, I guess, to put scoch roulette in the app. Oh, you know why? Because Matt Mitchell was putting Scutroo, putting our picks into the app while we were waiting for our Uber at Keenland. And he was asking me what the picks were. And he asked me like 17 times at the point where I thought I was talking to one of my children.

All right. All right. Let's move on. I didn't honestly notice that. But that's the exact reason why we missed it. We won't miss it again this week. And then chat, getting a lot of questions from new listeners about who we are, what's our relationship. how did this show come about? And it's always funny when you're constantly getting new listeners. People ask them, Chad's my boss. So I would start with this. Chad is my friend first. I look at Chad with sports betting as my little brother, but in media is my big brother.

I do have a contract with action. I work with Action Network. I do multiple shows with action, but I do work for a betting syndicate. I'm under contract with a group, so I don't sell picks. Everything I do is for free. Someday I might sell out.

I have no idea, but I am under contract where, Yeah, that'd be great to have a thousand people sign up for my website. Give me $100 each. Like, who doesn't want $100K a week? But I don't sell picks. Anyone that acts like they're me on Twitter selling picks. That's never me. I've never sold picks, never would on Twitter.

Me and Chad's deal is show up at these times, do the work that you're supposed to do. And we never have any problems. So Chad's never had to be a boss to me, really, because I do my work. Chad's never luckily had to really yell at me. But we're friends first. So this is year four, which is crazy. We made the money two years ago, on pace again to make the money. the contest. So if I missed a show and Chad had to give me a serious call, give me a licking. I deserve it

because he is my boss. That's so interesting. I always forget that there will be new people listening to what we're doing. So for context, Action Network, which is the platform that Simon and I work with. We launched four years ago. We are a sports betting media company. We have an incredible app where people track their picks. You can link out to sports books to make your bets. We have this incredible partnership with Fandul where you can get in, link directly to Fandul, not have to search for the games that you want to bet through a technology called QuickSlip. I've been doing a podcast about sports betting for 10 years. I was at ESPN forever. I was the editor-in chief of the magazine. I ran ESPN digital. And then when I left ESPN to help launch action, Simon reached out to me,

DM me on Twitter, and I called him, and I loved his story. And he started coming on the podcast for 15 minutes at a time. And the next season, he was coming on every single week. And he's been co-hosting with me now for three years. Yeah. He truly is my BFF. And Matt Mitchell is our producer, and he's brilliant at all of it. Anyways, good roundup, good reminder. Just a reminder that everything we do here is free. We're not here to sell you stuff. Sure, we would love you download the action app. But the goal of this, we just want to give out good info and have you think differently. I feel like we've accomplished that goal where we're not out here, Ben, all the favorites. It's rebeating ugly dogs usually week to week.

And we've proven it wins. Nine straight winning weeks. The haters really can't say much. People that love the show have really been back, because supporting us, and it's actually paying off for all of them. So, reminder, our foxhole pick this week, Packers plus five.

Simon Sass was Brown's plus four. It's down to two and a half. Exec decision by Chad was Bears minus two and a half. That's up to three. We will do Scoutrelette. We will do the money line round Robin. We will do the big balls. Before we get to all of it,

we got to go. Sharp calls. What do the wise guys call us about? out this week, Simon. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing?

Yeah, a lot of calls, actually. I would say the most interesting thing was the pros are all over that Rams news. I know a couple of pros that, yeah, we liked that number two. We were talking about that. We liked it at three. We liked it at three and a half. I didn't really get why there was a lot of guys bigger bets, but clearly they knew that there was something going on with Stafford there.

So we've seen that actually only dropped to a minus one and a half. which is like a little telling. No one really knows if Stafford's going to play or not. So that's a game we're going to break down because, again, it feels like if you could get that in your contest at three, three and a half, the Cardinals, that'd be hard to pass on that when you know that Stafford's not going to play. So that's one you can't really bet now, but for contest it's interesting. Chad was spot on with his love for Pittsburgh. Again, I wasn't on that one. A lot of pros I talk to love this spot for Pittsburgh.

They're on that one this week. I love it. Yeah, I was saying Navy check convinced me on it. Before we came on, I said to you, there's one game that I felt like we didn't dig into deeply enough. Yeah. And I didn't tell you what it was. It was the Steelers. And the Steelers, when we spoke on Tuesday, was three.

Now it's one and a half. Well, this group that, you know, I got two guys that work their NFL side and they're really sharp guys. Take smart positions, right? They're not in every weekend better. They do bet, right? But they take positions on certain weeks. They took three big positions this week. of their biggest one was Pittsburgh.

So that jumped out to me where it was like a game that wasn't on my radar. And then I'm hearing this group's on it. It's like, okay, that's going to be a smart side this week. So might be able to be convinced on that one. And then again, we touched on Denver. Three different really, really, really big money groups came in on them. And I'm shocked. It's still two and a half.

I thought it'd be down to two, one and a half by now. We'll see. We'll see what that number does the rest of the week. But I can promise you that's going to be most likely in our kind. The fact that so many guys are coming on it, it just feels like it's a smart number. Got scared. We're at no one, no one's back in our Green Bay love. And the boys I talked to, they love Cleveland at four.

They still like it a three and a half, but they're just, they think four is the key number there with this Miami team. So didn't get the news I wanted on Cleveland in the Green Bay side, because I thought everyone would be on Green Bay. But I think they're looking at it like Rogers is legit cooked, like something's wrong with that team, he doesn't look right. They could be right, but I just can't get over how nice of a spot it is. So we definitely dive in more into that one. But yeah, interesting hearing a lot.

The biggest plays I heard this week were Pittsburgh, Denver, Arizona, and actually 49ers, which we can also talk about because we're on the other side of that one. God, I don't like that. I don't like that at all because I love the Chargers this week. Me too. So, look, we can start breaking it down. Let's go to the Bears for a second, because I love the Bears at two and a half. I don't know what line we're going to get in the contest.

And again, for people who are new to this, and Simon, it makes a good point. Simon and I will enter a contest, high stakes contest. Every year, you've got to put in five picks. You can follow those picks in the Action Network app, follow the Faves Five. The lines on these contests, lock in the, the middle of the week. We don't have to put our picks in until Sunday. So we often wait because that's when we can get some of the best value in the line. Or the worst. We've taken numbers, like Chowell said. They're awful numbers, but we just like that side. But we try to narrow down

the games in these podcasts and give people real-time info. And so the games we're talking about are all games that we end up betting. Like, I can tell you right now, I bet the bears, I bet the Packers. I bet the Browns. I bet the Chargers. I bet the Steelers. Um, so we're not saying anything that we're not betting. But let's talk about the Bears. Everything I see about this game makes me continue to love the Bears even more. They are just getting better and better. And in a game in which I think the running game is going to be a big difference and they are still getting in some places less than a field goal, I don't know how you don't take the Bears with a dominant rush offense.

Yeah, and no surprise. The pros aren't touching this game just because they probably view it as we're buying high right now in Justin Fields after he just did something historical last week, right? Didn't he not break Mike Vicks rushing record? He said the single season rushing record for most yards gained by a quarterback on the ground in NFL history. In a single game. Single game.

Yeah. So they could be right, but I feel like everything that you touched on is so true about this line. They're a different team outside. They play different. We've seen their offense struggle outdoors. They have a bunch of injuries to that team. With the bears, they don't really have any injuries. Like right now, yeah, they're not good, but they're healthy. And with Justin Fields playing that the level he's playing, that feels like such a huge advantage to me. So I knew coming into it, no pros would be on it and just be one of those chalk plays that me and Chad love. And I'm not going to be out of it. Like, I just think it's a great number, especially at two and a half.

Scary, of course, that's not at three. And as it stayed at three, that some books are still letting you get to two and a half. half because again, it's going to be the most bet public side this week. But I'm with Chad. I'm willing to pay for this loss. That's what I feel like we're doing with the Bears here. It's like, okay, we know it's a sucker bet, but the sucker bets do win every now and then. The lines have proven me nothing these last couple weeks that they should only be catching three points here. Again, we think this line would be much bigger. They had dropped that game to the Green Bay, which they easily could have. And the Bears could easily could have won their matchup. So I feel like we're getting free points here, at least half a point.

that it's still under three. You're not wrong. 82% of the bets, 91% of the money on the Bears. And this thing is hanging out of two and a half. So that tells you everything you need to know that you and I are going to be alone as the professionals. That's bad. In this game.

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Tennessee red line is 1-800-889-9-9-8-8-8-9-8-2-4700 in Wyoming, or visit www,000-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Call it grotesque, others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I listened to the Action Network podcast with Raybon and Stuckey that came out this morning. Stucky loves the Packers in this spot. And he's not the only one. I've heard a lot of people who you and I both respect really loving the Packers in the spot that the Packers are basically an average team. And that if you look at the Packers when they were playing against the Bills a few weeks

ago, the delta between what the line is for then and what the line is now would basically say that the Cowboys are even to the Bills. at first rank, which they're not. So you're getting probably two points of value here. So I feel like to me this is a no-brainer for the contest. I love it. It is. And I'm glad we would walk in it together.

But it's the definition of a sharp trap. And I just thought it was interesting that no real pros are on it where it's like all of us, the minions are on it where they're like picking the other games. They're just, they're better spots where it's like, I don't know. Like I said, a couple guys, how can you not take Green Bay here? Like you just said, this is as low as it can get. we're getting at least two points of free value, just because Green Bay has been on absolute tailspin.

Their view of it is, why do you think the tailspin ends here? Like, why won't they just keep, you know, being horrible? You know, easily could see this game being 24 to 7, 24 to 6. Dallas just dominates Green Bay. Because, again, Dallas, their defense is incredible. But I feel like Chad nailed it where it's just like, this is the spot where you take Green Bay. And a Dallas team that, I'm not going to say they're going to sleepwalk,

but they're coming out of a by week, playing an inferior team, and a game they think they're going to dominate. And that's usually where you get caught, especially against a Packers team that this is it. Like we've already talked about last week. So, yeah, four and a half, five, five and a half, whatever it is in the contest, I'm sure me and Chatterger end up having it in there.

It's just a nice home, ugly dog that we're the only ones that are going to be on it. Like he just said, no one's betting this. No one is betting this. There's going to be a very small amount of us betting this number. Can't avoid it. Again, there's a couple of games. week we're going to talk about. There's just some games I feel like I can't avoid. This is one of them. It's like we have finally have a losing week and it's because of this

matchup here. Won't be shocked, but it's just this is what's got us this point. We keep playing these numbers and these positions and it's been good to us this year. Can we agree if we have a losing week this week for those who are listening? You have to take at least one buy in this contest. Let's agree that if we have a losing week this week, are we taking a buy? Like the following week? Yeah. I wouldn't do that. To me, that's like our get out of jail thing where it's just like, we're eventually going to hit a week where we just hate and we can finally use it.

We've just been so hot. That's why I haven't want to use it. It's just like we're rolling right now. Even if we go two and three, I don't know if we should use it like that. Yeah, that's a losing week. But, I mean, come on. That's nothing for us, two and three. So, yeah, I know we have to use it, Chad.

That's the thing. To me, I was looking at the final week that has a six teams on by. So I think it's either week. week 13 or week 14, there's six teams on a buy. That's what I was really saving it for. All right. That's the worst week. That's three less games we normally get.

That's where I was going to use it most likely. All right. But now I just gave out game theory to everyone else playing in our contest. I was just going to say. What can you do? Matt Mitchell might have to cut that. I think we're going to have a couple of games in our contest this week in our final five that are pretty ugly that other people won't play. So this could be a moving week for us.

Yeah. Again, and that's towards the end of the year. I know Chad's probably 10% believed what he said. He said he carried me through the first early couple of weeks, which is why I love Chad. But like I had in June, I had our first four weeks mapped out where it's like I knew that five in June. Like I literally have no life.

This is my life. As the weeks go along, I feel like it was going to get easier. And surprisingly it has, right? Like I feel like most weeks here, we get the three and two. We get the four and one. These next couple weeks coming up,

I've looked at the lines. It just feels tough. That's why, like, I'm comfortable with what you're talking about using a buy coming up here because there are some tough weeks coming up. The books are just getting sharper. All right. Still like the Bears. Still like the Packers. Yep.

Guys guys liked the Browns plus three and a half. Plus four, hopefully you can get that. Plus four, hopefully you can get it. For the record, I bet it three and a half because I didn't see any fours out there anymore. And the pros keep buying it. Every time it hits four, like I hit four this morning. I texted my runner. So I grabbed that draft Kings four.

I just checked now. it's already gone. So the four pops up. It's going to keep disappearing. You're probably right. Look, the dolphins are five in O in games decided by six points or less. Justin Fields just said a QB rushing record against Miami. What can Nick Chubb do?

Browns are one in four in games decided by six points or less. So, you know, I think these teams are more evenly matched than the bookmakers are giving credit to the Browns for. So even at three and a half, you're still getting, I think, an extra half point of value. The four is better, but still like it at three and a half.

I just, and honestly, the biggest reason I love this spot is it feels like we're so overdue for a bad two again. This guy has had, every time I'm watching his game film, the amount of drop picks,

he keeps getting away with it. Again, maybe it's his throwing style, the way his ball comes in there because he is a left guy, I believe. Maybe that throws off the DBs. But in a matchup like this,

I just can't see Miami pulling away where their defense isn't good enough to be fair by that many points. Like Chad just said, they give up the rushing yards. They can give up the passing yards. Teams remove the ball in this Miami team. Where you flip the other side, like Miami's offense, I love it, right? Like they're the waddled Tyreek Hill thing. That was by far the most fun game to watch last week. I was watching that Bears Miami game.

Just both offense removing the ball up and down the field. I love what they're doing at the same time. you're one-dimensional. They're a one-dimensional team, Miami right now. So in a matchup here with Cleveland, they had an extra week to prepare for this, right, coming off their bi-week. I like that.

They can scheme up against McDaniels in this offense. So that was the big reason I love the three-and-a-half. It's just annoying to me, right, that it hasn't gone back to four, and we couldn't get it to four again. But happy to take the three-and-half. I would take it all the way down to three. Miami, this is a huge game for them, right?

We're all assuming that bills are probably going to drop this game here to the Vikings. It's a big deal. They're going to have a backup in there. That would be huge for Miami. They would take a lead in the division. Insane to think at this position, right? New head coach, Tua, all the stuff going on in the summer, the whole thing going on with Tom Brady, them trying to get him in there.

Incredible how well Tua has played. And the Tyra Kill move, I mean, we haven't even talked about it really, but he's like up there now for offensive player of the year. Incredible. And like the whole thing is just crazy where usually those things don't work out for teams. It's all worked out for Miami from this offseason. Dude, he's not just up there. I mean...

Is he number one? He's, I think, pretty sure. I'm checking in the action network app right now, but... I thought Hertz would still be one. Fairly certain that I'm checking right now. Offensive player of the year. Tyree Kill plus 300. Wow.

Tyree Kill at Fandul. plus 250 Jalen Hertz plus 450 yeah no that's that's crazy so yeah Tyreek I think it's an awful bet

he's a he's a day away from a hamstring being pulled people forget this is a guy that always has soft tissue injuries but it's working right now so crazy if you got him 50 to 1 or better before the season

all right let's talk about the Steelers for a second yeah do your thing he missed it the other day and I was disappointed because I said on the pod that I liked it and we didn't dig into it. The line is moved.

I still like it. Mike Tomlin came out this week, said he was optimistic that T.J. Watt was going to come back. This is a significantly different defense when T.J. Watt is playing. This is a top five defense in the league when he's playing. I think Kenny Pickett's been a gamer. He came in against the Jets in the second half, nearly beat him. That looks more impressive, given how well the Jets have played.

True. To close against Miami. He beat the Bucks. You give this guy. The two weeks now after a by week to get a little more comfortable. They're playing at home against a not very good Saints team, especially away from the dome. Ra, Ra, Mike Tomlin, when he's a dog in this spot after week five,

covering 70% of the time, that's a big data set. It's not five games. Scream it. You know what this is? I don't think so, actually. Really? You got another one you like better than this? Maybe.

But if you want to do this one, I'll do this one. I this doesn't feel honestly taking the Steelers as home dogs with Mike Tomlin and T.J. Rock coming back against the Saints team. That's it. That doesn't feel like it takes big balls. That's true. That's true. I'm right there with you. I honestly didn't like it just because the Saints team has just been, not that I want to say they've been unlucky, but they really have. They're just, they've had bad injuries. They've had bad QB play.

But Chad's right. Like this is the spot you take. take Pittsburgh every time. Tomlin is a home dog. It sucks it down in one half. I'd still take it there, though. Hopefully we can get two and a half or two in the contest. You're right. Again, I overlooked in the sense that it's probably my love of the Saints here,

but the Pittsburgh historically trends to point to this is always a good spot to take Tomlin and this Pittsburgh team. Now you bring in the fact that Watt's going to be back. that changes everything. Like, again, I did not see him coming back this week. I think that's honestly the movement. I don't know if it's professional money moving the line. I think it's the Watt news because he's worth in my math,

he's worth at least a point and a half to a point. So that's a big deal. Even if he's not even fully healthy, he's that dominant of a player. And he means that much of that team. You can look at their record with him and without him. It's a big discrepancy. So I'm with you, I can put this one in and come Sunday.

All right. I like it. So then the next. one, we can go back to Denver. But I'm going to say this. I said it last week with Tennessee. I'll say it this week with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Big balls, better the week.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus nine and a half. Look, dude, we talked about it on Tuesday. It's ugly. Oh, no. We know it's the right spot. We know Moe Holmes doesn't cover as a huge. huge favorite at home. This is a team that has been struggling to beat bad teams at home.

Look what they did against Tennessee. Look what they did against the Raiders. Look what they did against the Chargers. They lost to a good team at home in the bills. The Jags, we love the Jags. Yeah. The only question to me is, do we wait and try to get it at 10? Because we know come Sunday, the public is going to come in on the Jags.

but I think we got to be thinking Jags right now. Yeah, and again, now one of them we're talked about games this week from the boys. I know one group that loves it as well. A couple guys listen to the show live now that are pros and that was an instinct text I got afterwards was, you're taking the Jags after a win. And again, I get that.

It's probably historically terrible because they, what, they've had, sheesh, man, they've had what, three or four wins, five wins the last two years? I mean, even going back last four or five years, I can't imagine having more than 12 wins. It's been bad. I get it. But like Chad just said, this is more of a play on Mahomes, right?

Like him and these big spreads, he does not perform well. They usually don't cover such big numbers like this. They usually take the foot off the gas. And the Jaguars can move the ball. We've seen them with Travis E.T.N. Move the ball. If you look at early season, the success on the offense, it sounds great, but it ran through Christian Kirk.

They were getting Christian Kirk the ball, and they were getting first downs, moving the ball. They went away from that in the middle of season. and we saw they dropped a bunch of games. He said two weeks ago they're going to try to get nine to ten touches per game. It's a big difference. Like he's a performer for them. And again, in this matchup, this will be a good matchup for Christian Kirk.

So I hate it. So that's probably a great bet for us, Chad, because it's like twisting my stomach, just like Tennessee was going against my homes here. We got to do it. It's a big number. I would still take the nine and a half. I just don't see it getting back to 10 because I think the pros will buy it again at 10. But Chad's right. Like come Sunday, you might be able to get that bum.

But if you want to take the nine and a half just to be safe in case it drops down to nine, eight and a half, I got no issue doing it right now because I do think it could drop. Well, Christian Kirk, that's a great point. Last week, he had nine targets, eight receptions, and he was a game changer in that Raiders game. Yeah. And again, that's Doug Peterson being aware of his fault. It's my favorite thing in people, being humble, being honest, and he was. He was just like, their team is messing up.

It's on me. I need to get our guys touches. Like that's how you can flip these things around. And he has. He's gotten Christian Kirk touches. He's got Travis E.T.M. He's going to turn their season around if they're able to do that. Humility, honesty, humor.

Simon, if I'm your media big brother, I'm telling you right now, you follow the Triple H cocktail. You will do just fine. This is the Triple H podcast. Humility, honesty, Humor. All right. You got to be a Scientologist.

Oh, Jesus Christ. I guess we should talk about the Chargers plus seven and the Niners minus seven. We gave the big balls. But because I love the Chargers in this game. I think it's going to be a slow game. I know the Chargers are missing so much, so many offensive weapons. I know. But I think it could be a three-point game.

Like I think it can be 17-14. Yeah, and I just don't get it though. Like, it's, I've seen the numbers, right? I've seen Herbert. He is dead last to getting the ball down the field this season. Again, I talk about, I think his coachings are, the coach is failing him. But it's also the Keenan Allen and Mike Williams injuries. Like those are the two big body guys he goes downfield to.

They've been out. So I'm trying to take too much away from a chap, but it does give me pause when, you know, a guy I really respect. He's like, no, that's, I'm taking a huge stand this week on the 49ers. just a great matchup, great spot for them. And I even said to them. Have you ever looked at the numbers of Shanahan as a favorite? And Shanahan in prime time, it's not good. So I'm with you, Chad.

It's going to be really hard for me and Chad on Sunday. If this is seven and a half in our contest, the pass on it. But fishy, fishy, fishy, fishy. Because, again, what Chad has talked about is so true. The chargers are always in all their games. Like, the issue for us is when the charges are favorites. That's when we like to fade the chargers. but as dogs, they always come back.

I mean, just think about that Chiefs game. Was that week two? They were dead in the water. They saw it came all way back. Even the coaching was such a blunder and it was stupid as hell. They still came all the way back and covered the three and a half. And it's just that's the kind of team they are where, you know, fourth and five, fourth and 12. It doesn't matter to them.

That's annoying as hell when you need them as a favorite. As a dog, we love that. It's like, yeah, go for it. You're the dog here. So I'm with Chad. I think there's too much variance. Yeah. Give me a big call.

and Chargers coaching decisions. Right. To count them out as big underdogs. And you just nailed it. It's why we don't like them as favorites. It's why we do like them as underdogs, especially really big underdogs. I think we've got a really interesting collection of games

to make decisions from on Sunday. We like the Bears, two and a half. We like the Packers plus five. Browns plus three and a half. Steelers plus one and a half. Jacks plus nine and a half. And so this is interesting. No, like a lot of games this week.

Again, we didn't even talk about it, but games, you might, if you're in a contest, right? And you're looking at lines that have moved and you think there's good value. There's some good trap games this week that me and Chad might walk right into. And one of them is being the Vikings. If we could get six, six and a half, how do we not take that, right? If we could get Cardinals three, three and a half, now they're down to one. It could be even down to a pick. But if it is Stafford, that's out, we know the data.

We know the Rams are 12 and 1 straight up against this Cardinals team, their last 13. Like, I get all those trends. It's hard to not take those numbers, though, when the value is that good. Like, you're getting four points in some of those games of value. So games just to keep our eye on in case people are shocked that we have in there because we didn't really talk about them. Could have great value on the Cardinals with Stafford out.

Could have great value on the Vikings with Josh Allen. We don't know yet, right? The coach is kind of keeping it. close to his chest. The last one we didn't talk about because I don't know what we're going to do with it. Because, again, we liked it was the Houston movement. I don't know who bet that. I reached out to a bunch of different guys and who's moving this line.

No one's taking credit, so that means no one did it. So something's happened where the books just adjusted off their own lines or someone I don't know hit that and moved at a full point and a half, two points. Big deal. Not sure why, right? Damien Pierce, the best player on Houston, came up on the injury report this week yesterday. Line backed up to five.

So don't know what to do with it. People have been asking about it. I have no idea. I don't know who bet it. Don't know to go off of. Just simply what I said last week. I thought that was a good number or on Tuesday. That's a good number at six and a half. Like that's what I would have taken Houston at.

Down of four and a half five, I don't know if I can back Houston at that number. Boxhole, Packers, plus five. Simon says Browns plus four, three and a half. Exec decision bears minus two and a half. Big balls, Jacks, plus nine and a half. Simon, last week you at Seattle plus two. I had the Bears plus, I think, four, whatever it was. Yeah.

We both want Scoot Roulette. You are still on the lead. You go first. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scootch Roulette. Seven and two on the season, Chad. Seven and two. What does that make me?

three and four? You're four and five or five and four. How can I not do it? I loved it. The pros love it. They're betting it. Wish it was still a plus three, but I'll take it anyway.

Denver plus two and a half. All right. I thought you were going to take the Steelers. No, that's yours. I don't want to steal that. I told you on Tuesday, I was leaning towards the Saints,

but everything you said so true, it's like these are the times you take Tomlin. I'm taking this, you're taking Denver plus two and a half. I'm taking the Steelers plus one and a half, Let's do our money line run, Robin. My dog likes your dog, your dog likes my dog. I mean, I love this week.

We haven't had a good run here where, like, the dogs, they've been covering. They just haven't been winning. Let's start off of Minnesota. How can we not if Josh Allen's out? Throw them in, throw Cleveland in. Got to throw the chargers. I love that big number. I just, we've seen it time and time again.

The 49ers, when they lose, they lose. We're like bad. Oh, do you want to do Green Bay? I was going to say we have to do Green Bay. We do. right. Of course. Yeah, that's good.

100%. And then I think... So Minnesota, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Chargers. Minnesota, Cleveland. Oh, you do want to do Denver? Because I would do the Steelers. Yeah, it's such a short number, though. All right, so do Denver.

It's what's a plus 109 in the app. Okay. Denver is... That's not that much better. Plus 116. Yeah, we can do that if you want, switch out Denver throw Pittsburgh again. I feel better about a home team as a dog

All right. Let's take Cleveland out, though. Let's take Cleveland out, though. Okay. Cleveland's out. Denver's in. Pittsburgh is in. So for those listening live, I know Matt is putting these in the chat right now. Ripping his air out. Minnesota, Denver, Chargers, Green Bay, Pittsburgh. Yep. All right. Listen, last week, Simon, we were right about Foxhole. We were right about Simon says. We were right about executive decision.

We were right on Scoot Roulette. we were right on big balls bed of the week. We went four in one of the contest. Things can only get worse. Amen. Honestly. The only way they can get better is if we do all this and go five and oh in the contest. So I feel bad for anyone who's just listening for the first time this week because we were so

brilliant last week. This is it, though. That's it. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter, producer extraordinaire, is Matt Mitchell, download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars.

Keep us in the top 100. You guys have been doing it all season long. We really appreciate it. Give us the five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

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