The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 18, 2022

The Dallas Cowboys weigh heavily on the mind of Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter this week, as they look to finalize their favorite betting picks for NFL Week 11. Together they go through the board and select their best plays, including some love for the lowly Houston Texans and a diagnosis of a potential thundersnow matchup in Buffalo. Plus, we get a round of professional bettors feedback in Sharp Calls, and plenty more. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites presented by Fanduel. Football season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code favorites and download the Fandual app today to make every moment more this football season. Must be 21 or older and in select states call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan.

in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-800 next step or text, next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-88-78-9-777 or visit CCPG.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. Call 1-877770 stop in Louisiana. 1-8778. Hope N.

Or text, Hope, NY, 4-667-9. in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-97889. Call 1-800-2-2-470 in Wyoming or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am for every episode. My favorite two hours of the week, When I get to be with my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad.

Here we are, buddy. Week 11. We're getting through it, man. I felt like I was a little bit worried about what the recording was going to be like the other day because, you know, we didn't have a great week. And you wanted to buy and I wasn't in the headspace for it. And now we're come back and we're going to turn it around. We'll have a great week. We've moved on.

We totally moved down. That's, you know what? Not only are you a good friend. You're professional. It's true. We move on. So to remind people, today we will do our big balls, bed of the week. We will finalize the games that we love the most for our final five reminder,

following the award-winning Action Network app. See where we land officially by noon on Sunday. See what we end up loving. Simon and I will talk on Sunday after we record, convince me, which you can watch in the Action Network app. You can watch it on YouTube. You can watch it on the Twitter at Action Network HQ. We will do, I'll remind everybody that our Foxhole bet this week,

Pat's minus three. Still a couple of minus three is out there, but it's moving. Simon says, Cowboys minus one. That's been moving. Executive decision, Texans plus three and a half. That's been moving. We've got to get to some scrutulet. We've got to get to the Monty line Ron Robin.

Before we get to anything, let's get to it. Sharp calls. Hello, who's there, I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, in another week of a couple guys telling us what we're doing wrong, and then a couple guys saying how they love our picks. So to no one's surprise, oh, I guess to some people's surprise, they love the Cowboys.

Newcoming in, this was going to be a professional play. Got a little scared off right. I took the number of minus two and it shot all the way down to minus one. I go, oh, man, I might be misreading this one. and making a huge mistake. But I think the information I've been getting is good. Got early word that they had injuries to their offensive line, got early word that Justin Jefferson might be a little banged up.

Again, still thinks he's going to play. That's a huge advantage, right? The number one receiver, I guess you could say number two receiver in football behind Tyree Kill. He's a little banged up. That's a concern if you're a Vikings team going up against a Dallas team that, again, they have a good secondary, especially there with Dig.

So that's a game I feel like we're going to talk about. We like Dallas, the professionals like Dallas. The public, we already knew they're going to be over in Minnesota. They'll tease Minnesota. It's just one of those numbers they love, right? It's a gift. The sports books give people every week to give you the plus one and a half on certain games. It's like, yeah, let me take that up to seven and a half on a teaser, no brain or play.

Usually it's a trap. So for this week, I was definitely on that one early. It's nice to hear the professionals like it as well. A game that we didn't talk much about, but we both, you know, we liked, we both liked a in it was the Pittsburgh Sinty game. Heard from multiple professionals. They really like Pittsburgh again this week. They like him as a dog in this position.

I like him at home as a dog with Tomlin. I can't go against it. I understand where they're coming from. But to me, the Sinci just feels like a smart play where, you know, this is a team that can move the ball up and down the field on most teams. Again, I get it. J.J. Watts back. That offensive line has issues for Sinti, but I just can't get there with them.

And the fact the numbers come down so much, I mean, we can talk about coming up on the show, but if that got the three and a half three, how do I not take Sinci there? So it's definitely interesting. The numbers come from five and a half to five. That's really smart professional money coming in on it. Again, another game we'll talk about today.

Houston, we thought, when we talked about it thought it was going to be a pros versus Joe's game. The ticket count's not as disparate as I thought. I thought it was going to be way more tickets on Washington. I thought the public bill over that one, but it's not as far off as you think, but the money is definitely slanted towards this Houston team, which again, talk to a couple different guys that really liked Houston this week,

a three, three and a half. I like it a three and a half. I don't know if I love it as much at three. I still think it's a good number, but three and a half feels like the smart number in that game. I can see it being a field goal game, right? I feel like that's what most of us project out with Houston. They'll have a lead. They just don't know to protect these leads.

So they're up by two. If the game's tied, you just assume Houston loses that one. So interesting. 58% of the, I said interrupt you. The 58% of the tickets are on the commanders. To your point, 85% of the money on the Texans. Yeah. And I honestly think that's from two groups.

Like I just, I know one group that came in really heavy. I don't even know. Not today, but like I would say 24 hours, 20 hours ago, I got a text about a group hitting that number heavy. Not all the books, right? But I just saw, as soon as I checked the action app, I saw a bunch of threes across the board. So it was three and a halfs all morning.

and then I really literally got this text. I looked and it was like all these threes just shifted. So clearly there's people taking a heavy position. I liked it already. Like me and Chad both already better earlier in the week. I've continued to bet it at three and a half. Hopefully you're listening to this on Friday. You can still get the three and a half.

Because to me, that's a key number in this kind of matchup. So the last one, again, I don't think we're going to talk about much because I don't want to take the Bears. Atlanta. Atlanta was minus three all week. The professionals have come in heavy. on that again, it's a strength versus a weakness in that fact that Atlanta wants to run the ball and the Bears can't stop the run. I think, again, that's what these guys are going to be betting.

Chad's going to talk about it, maybe that he likes it at three and a half for the Bears. Hard to argue against that. I've seen all of Atlanta's games this year, right? It's a team I've really been on. They play close games, and that's a huge key number, three and a half. So I would prefer Atlanta minus three. If you can't find out of your book and all you have is a three and a half, I don't hate it taking the bears but to me I would just pass on the game So it's just interesting The professionals

They like that Atlanta team In a bounce back spot here I think they're on an 0 and 3 straight ATS streak after starting 6 and O I think they think the values Come back around on this Atlanta team All right We owe people of big balls

We're going to get to that A couple games that are floating around it And we touched it just now On a lot of the games that we had zeroed in on the other day, that we still like. Full disclosure, most of these games, Simon and I have bet at some point during the week.

I haven't bet the Bears because I'm still waiting on a three and a half. I haven't bet Atlanta. A couple games that I do want to get to, though. So let's talk about the Cowboys, because that is one that is so interesting. at what point do you think the Vikings go from being a mediocre team that's getting lucky to a good team that keeps itself in a position to win and makes its own breaks? Because right now they're on what?

They're eight and one. Last week they had the what we would catalog as the luckiest win in the NFL since 2014. based on their win probability throughout the game. Right. So and the Cowboys, like, we're playing the inflation, you know, we're playing the defense, we're playing the Vikings being banged up and that we think they're lucky. At what point do we change our calculus on the Vikings?

I feel like we've been nailing the Vikings all season since that we know exactly what they are. It's like a team that if they're a bigger favorite, we kind of fade it. When they're at home at 1 o'clock, I usually buy it. on it. This is a nice little sweet spot where it's a 430 start. So it's like, you know, it's the in-between where it's like, all right, at least I don't have to just blindly bet the Vikings at home here. But the biggest thing about me, then, me saying they're not a pretender is like, again, you can go back and watch that game. Kirk, yes, we say it all the time. He has these moments. He's really dumb moments of, you know, either taking the sack or making

bad throws. But he also has these throws where it's like, you know, you see Kirk's talent right at that level. And we've seen it this year. He's had, I think it's up to five games now where he's come back or whatever, I had a game winning drive in the fourth quarter. That's a big deal. If you're a fan of the Vikings or you're someone that has a futures on the Vikings where it's like, okay.

To me, they already have that division wrapped up. I just don't see them falling off a cliff here to end the season. Even though they are due for regression, like Chad just talked about, the one-score game thing is real. Like the best team last year in one-score games was a Las Vegas race. This year, they're the worst team in one score games. That's how it is. It's just like eventually these things turn.

Maybe it won't be this year. Maybe the Vikings will keep pulling off these miracles. I just, as someone that's just going off the pure data and the math, it's like, okay, the Vikings are a very talented team. I just don't think they're a top three, top four team in the NFC. And like, again, that's nothing to take away from them. It's more about their defense. again, they're not as good as people are giving them credit for. It's like I've seen it where their D-line has played well,

and I give them credit for that, but their secondary has major issues. On offense, again, Kirk has played incredibly. You're going to see it this week. They might have major trouble in that offensive line with these injuries they have. So again, in Minnesota team, I think they have a ton of talent. It's all going to come back in the end to this head coach, where it's like, I've liked what they've done.

They've put Kirk in good positions. But Chad just talked about. They've been one of the luckier teams all season. So I don't want to say bad things about Minnesota because they have played so well. But this is just like a typical spot where even if they win this game, right, I'm not going to over-adjust it. I'm like, okay, now they are for real, a top two team because I try not to over-adjust to those things. I just on paper, I look at this Cowboys team is they are better across the board.

They match up very well across the board against Minnesota team. So just going off the matchups, that's where I like this. And then I'm playing the value of the number. I have this at three. It's minus one. That's why I'm taking the number. Again, if this was three and a half, I'd be all over in Minnesota as a home dog, a three and a half.

That'd be an amazing number. Maybe you think about them in my plus three, but at plus one and a half, I think it's a bad number. And that's why I'm taking Dallas here. So I'm trying not to overthink it because I do think Minnesota is a good team. It's just a good spot to take a Dallas team that,

again, the public is just simply off them. This is a truly a professional game. The pros are the ones betting this. game, the public will be all over in Minnesota in this match. Vikings getting 54% of the bets, Cowboys getting 77% of the money. Yeah. And again, we're not always right. Chad knows.

Chad says all the time. Like, we get you wrong all the time. But it's just this is a game that pros will take a stance on just because they have the same number as I do. It's like this is a mismatch and a good matchup for this Dallas team. Still love the Cowboys. We still love the tech. at plus three and a half.

We think Stucky, listening to Stucky and Raybon this morning on the Action Network podcast, we were already on the Texans. Stucky was talking about how much he liked the Texans. And we had all the right theories on it, sort of the inflation, the luck factor for the commanders in that game, some bad turnover, some bad calls. Like, they were the better team, but they still got outgained on a yards per play basis. The Texans outgained the Giants on a yards per play basis. They outplayed the Giants on a yards per play basis.

I will reiterate what I said the other day, four red zone possessions for the Texans, two turnovers, two field goals. So they were the better team on Sunday. They didn't cover. Now they get to go home. They get a, we get the inflationary bounce. on the commanders. So now it's at three and a half. Like, come on, people.

Just do the right thing. Take the Texans. That's all we're asking. We're just asking you to be some goddamn professionals. It's another pro's Joe's game. We talked about, 58% on the commanders, 85% on the Texans. And I was right there with Chad,

where I love this game Sunday night. Like right, when this number came out, I was like, all right, this would be a good number. I'll wait, get the three and a half. hopefully it gets there. Throw a little bit on it. Me and chat, I think we talked Tuesday morning,

but still three. And then before we did our show, jumped up a three and a half. That's when I was like, all right, I got to grab that number. Surprised to hear, though, two different groups

really love this game and they're betting heavy money on this game where, I don't know. I try to stay away from the worst teams of football because you never know when teams have given up,

right, when teams have just simply given up. And we saw Brandon Cooks, who was a captain of their team. He was stripped of his captaincy for this Houston team. Again, This is a guy that people would talk highly about.

He got burned out from losing. Like, that's a real thing. So that's my only worry with this Houston team is that they could be cooked, right? They could have given up and are just tuning out, Lovie Smith at this point. That's a major risk when you're taking this kind of game and this kind of number. But blind test people, like, again, I'm begging you, this is just a professional bet. You have to take a three and a half. It's overinflated line like Chad just talked about.

game should be closer to, I don't know, say one or two. The fact that it's three and a half at this point that's been bent up that high just because of what Washington did on Monday night, it's too much. Washington is not the kind of team that blows teams out. We've just seen it all year. They let teams back in and they play close games. So three and a half is just a no-brainer smart number. We will die on this hill, especially in our contests.

I know we're going to get a three-and-a-half hopefully. I have to take it. It's just a no-brainer play. No-brainer. You have to take it. We love the Texans for the contest. We love the Cowboys. I think we'll get a one or one and a half for the Cowboys.

Let's talk about the New Orleans Saints. We liked him the other day at minus four. We didn't know if Stafford was playing. Stafford practiced today or practiced yesterday. You said before we came on, you heard he had been cleared and he would be playing this weekend. The number is now down to three. I still love the Saints.

I don't care who's playing quarterback. for the Rams. Yeah, it's just interesting that, you know, the professionals like Stafford and they came and heavy on this Rams team where the issue to me is the Rams O lines keeps getting worse and worse every week. They keep losing guys. The kind of argument to that. You lost more guys this week.

Last more guys this week. The Saints don't get that much pressure. I think they've improved that as the season has gone along here. Again, they've had weird matchups where, you know, you have to throw out that Atlanta game because that was on a Atlanta game where all they did was run the ball. so of course they didn't get any pressures in that game. I just, I don't really overreact to it, but Chad's dead on.

Like if I could get a three in the contest, I'll take that with the Saints team at home in a matchup against a Rams team that just has major issues across the board. They're on top of that. They just lost Cooper Cup. I can't get over that. And I feel like the books aren't reacting enough to that info.

Stafford is really worth a point and a half at one point. What's Cooper Cup worth? Three points? Like seriously, I'm not even like. Cooper Cup is. There is 30% of their offense. Exactly. And at one point, it was 50% of it.

So it's just, it's a major, major deal. I don't think the books are factor into it. So hopefully we get a good number of the contest. If it was four, four and a half of the locked at that number yesterday, I'd pass on that. But at three, I would love to put that number. And that's just a good number for a home team in the Saints. That worst case, I see him winning by three.

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Because right now, right now, the Colts are all of a sudden a seven point underdub. I am starting to feel strongly about the Colts because Jordan Davis not playing for the Eagles. As far as I know, he will not be playing. That troubles me if the dominant defensive linemen for the Eagles is Fletcher Cox. We saw what happened when he had to play.

at a ton of game, a ton of plays on Monday night. The Colts can be a better running team than Washington. Matt Ryan, I like having them back under center in this kind of contest. Going on the road, winning by a touchdown in the NFL, that's fucking hard. You know it is. I get, everything you said it's fair. It's one of those I'll walk away from them most likely. But I don't know, come Sunday, I feel like I might be able to convince you to take the six and a half.

It's just to me the biggest discrepancy is the head coaching position. Like the coaching for the Eagles to me is so much better than what the Colts have. And, you know, we can say it all we won about last week. Then I'm winning in that spot. I still believe it has more to do with the Raiders than anything else. And again, the Raiders were in that game. They were winning in 2019 and they had the ball. And, you know, Derek Carr, you could argue is one of the worst QBs in football right now,

gave the ball back to the Colts in which they took it down the field and score. So looking at this match. matchup, do we see Hertz having another bad game? Again, he didn't have that bad of a game last week, but the team just said as a whole. I just don't see it. The Eagles team are just a well-coached team. Defensively, they got embarrassed.

We've seen historically teams that get embarrassed tend to bounce back. But Chad's right. They're one of the worst ranked run defenses in football and Jordan Davis is not coming back. And Fletcher Cox, who, again, I hate to say as an Eagles fan, he's just not that good anymore. And the man had to play 70 snaps in a football game last week. They interviewed him, I think it was yesterday, about how he felt.

And he said he felt like shit. And he said his whole body hurt. And it's like, well, Chad just nailed it. They got to turn around on a short week. And now he's got to play a bunch of snaps again. That's a big issue. So I wish I'd come here and confidently be like, no, you take the fucking Eagles here. This is the play.

Chad's probably right. I'm probably being a little blinded here by the mismatch and the coaching staff. But I just, I can't, I cannot be talking to the Colts. at this number. Seven and a half, eight, you peak my interest, but it was eight and a half Sunday night, was eight Monday morning, moved to seven and a half by Tuesday morning,

and then seven by time, or six, I think, six and a half by the time we did our show. Clearly, their professionals are with chat. Like, that's pro-money, keep coming in and moving that number. Definitely an interesting game this week. I said Chad's probably going to be on the right side with the professionals,

but at six and a half, I already kind of made a position. on this Eagles team. You know what? That's the beauty of doing it together, right? We're not going to agree on every game. We have to make compromises. We're in a relationship.

At the end of the day, I think we make more correct decisions together. And if this ends up not being one, so be it. That's the world we live in. Yeah, and again, if you come to me Tuesday, I mean, Sunday morning, and it's seven and a half in our contest,

and you're like, guy, I fucking love the cult. It's one of my favorite, too. I wouldn't say no because to me, everything we just talked about is the truth. It's like if they're going to get a lead, the Colts and they can run the ball

with last year's best running back in football, Jonathan Taylor, who looks like he's kind of getting back in the form here, that's a huge deal. Like that's a team that can control the clock against an Eagles team that we've seen struggle in second half

this year. So I get where your heads at. Again, seven to half would be the number for me. It's seven. Still kind of leaning towards the Eagles. Chargers plus six. We said on Tuesday, take him a plus seven.

They're now plus six. Getting 75% of the money. That's why the number is moving down. Do we not like him at six in the contest? We like him at six and a half. I am not a buyer on the Chiefs as a near touchdown favorite. They don't do well in these games. Patrick New Holmes does not cover at big numbers.

The chargers are supposed to get Keenan Allen back, maybe Mike Williams back. We like the Chargers as dogs at big numbers. The variance plays to their favor. Yeah, it's all about where the number is at for our contest. But in real life, people, you might get sick of us saying this because they burned us last week with the Jaguar. But more than a touchdown favorite,

or even I think it's three and a half favorite. Yeah, it's just right. That's what it is. He's below 50% ATS. And there's a reason for that. It's an inflated line. backed off Mahomes. So, yeah, I love the, I love the Chargers. It just is always scary when Chad says all this money is coming in against Mahomes, because this is usually where he bites you.

Like, again, Mahomes is that talented. The books know what they're doing. They're flirting with us line here, right? We saw a drop down at five and a half, then it jumped up to six. They're just like us. They're trying to dictate what's going to happen here with this Keenan Allen, Mike Williams news because that's a big deal. Again, the secondary, you can look it up. they have a small secondary in the chiefs. If you get two big body receivers, that's so huge for this Chargers team that on third down, that's where they've struggled.

Again, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, if you go back and watch film, they are exactly who he looks for on third down. This year, what has he been doing, Herbert, with those guys out? Checking it down to Austin Echler. That doesn't work. Again, amazing for fantasy football,

but Austin Eccler is not picking up those first downs like he would if he had these two big receivers. So if you miss the good numbers, again, six and a half, seven. I get it if you want to take the six, but to me, I would wait. You wait and see if it's going to be Mike Williams or Keenan Allen here. If me and Chad do get words Sunday morning that they are going to be playing,

if we get six and a half in our contest, I'm going to have to put that in. That's too big of a number of division, a division matchup between these two teams here, especially when the Chargers know this is it, right? They need to win this game if they have any chance in this division, which I've written them off. I don't think they have a chance in this division,

but this would flip that. Them winning this game would totally throw upheaval into this division where they would actually have a chance at winning it. So to me, this is going to mean more to this Chargers team. Wait on the number, though. Again, major, major, major news of those two receivers play. I didn't wait on the number. You got the seven, though, didn't you?

I got it at six. Yeah, I mean, I got the seven, so that's why I feel comfortable waiting. Or even six and a half of you got that, I feel comfortable. But yeah, if you're scared. just want to grab the six just to be safe because I do think it'll drop, right? As soon as those two guys get cleared, it will drop. You go ahead and grab it.

Again, it feels like the Cleveland game. We talked about Cleveland Buffalo. blindly just grabbed the eight and a half because we knew the snow was coming. I thought it was going to be way more snow. Apparently it's only going to be three to six feet now, which that's good for them. But just two towns over,

they're literally getting 15 feet of snow. So this is ever evolving. People asking about that game is going to be canceled too, Chad. Everything you read, these people on Buffalo, these maniacs, they say that it's the snow is the day before. So it's not like the snow will be affecting that game. It's the cancellation.

Are people going to be able to get to the game? So that was pretty funny reading all these comments online about this Buffalo game because it's just tough-ass people up there. There's like, listen, we've had worse snowstorms like this. We've made it to the Bills game. Yeah. Again, as much as I would love for this game that you play in the snow, it seems like it's going to be a kind of thing where it's the same.

snow the day before. So, you know, it won't be that terrible during the game. Love the over, though. If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, take that value and take the over. I already grabbed it at 41.5. 41. It's up to 42 and a half at a bunch of books. Key number, I'd still grab it there. You could see if it's clear day, if it's a clear sunny day and it snowed a ton the day before, who cares? Like, that's perfect weather for Josh Allen to throw in against a horrible Cleveland defense that, you know, we just saw them get lit up in Miami. We've seen the bills be able to get run on.

And we had Nick Chubbentown. So a low total in a game that you assume would be high sport without bad weather, I'd grab it now. Call it a snover. Snover. We got a snover. Okay. All right.

We talked about the Chargers. We talked about the Cowboys. We talked about the Texans. We talked a little bit about the Saints, which are now down to three in some places. Pats, if we can get three in the contest, we still like that. Three and a half would scare you off? Three and a half with the Pats?

I don't think so. Okay. Yeah, because I'd be five. I'm thinking because I told you, I make it four, four and a half. So I think there's still a good value in that number. We have not come up with the big balls yet. And I kind of was hoping to convince you that the Colts can be our big balls better the week.

But it doesn't sound like I can't. No, because I let you do it last week. I wanted to be Pittsburgh. You said that was too easy and you took the Jaguars. And I got a lot of hate about I need to start standing firm against Chad. And I was like, I liked the Jaguars last week, though. What am I going to do here? It's hard when he says big balls.

I like the game. I mean, if you want, brother, if we're going to go big balls, no, I can't do it. No, I guess it is. It'd be the Chargers, right? Yeah, I was just going to say. The only other option is the Chargers. I was going to say, it's the only one that's really making me feel sick. It just sucks that it's at six, but I guess at the same time, it's a good number.

So for big balls, I would do the six. Here's what I would say. Does it take big balls to bet the bangles at three and a half? Wow. Going against your team, Pittsburgh. It does. It takes big balls to bet a road favorite of more than a field goal in a divisional game when the wise guys are on the Steelers.

Buck. Big balls is just about. betting underdogs. It's do you have the fucking cajones? To go against the pros. To go against the pros to bet a not perfect number because you've got conviction that you are on the right side of history here. I'll do it.

I mean, I feel sick to my stomach. I feel sick to my stomach doing it. So you must be right. You must take big ball. The sicker you feel, the bigger the bet. That's true. Jeez. So we're going against our boy, Chris.

Raybon. Oh yeah, we're going against Raybon. We're saying, Sinty, let's confirm. I don't want to be overly enthusiastic and convince you here. I told you the pros are on Pittsburgh

this week. Like I had a couple of calls and I said to them, what we're saying right now. It's like, all right, keep bedding it. Let me get three and a half.

It's three and a half a fan duel. I got to be a man of my word chat. I'm with you on it. We're doing it. Fucking bangles. Fucking bangles. Big balls. Better than week.

I'm not on hotel this week. I can scream it from the top of my fucking lungs. Cincinnati Bengals, Big Balls, Better the Week. Still a lot up in the air. Yeah, and again, a lot can change. Like Sunday morning, again, we didn't really talk about it. Chad loves 49ers. I want to take Arizona.

If they're down to their third string quarterback, I will be joining Chad on the 49ers. And again, if it's seven and a half, eight in our contest. I'm happy to put that in. I'd make that number 10 if it's the third stringer in there. So big deal. Again, talk to a bunch of me amigos down in Mexico. They're all going to the game.

They're all 49ers fans. They said it's about to be a fucking party. So if you want to know with the real people in Mexico City and Mexico are doing, they are going as 49ers fans and they are going to party. So true. So, so true. All right. We did big balls.

talked about a lot of games. I don't know that we've narrowed a five, but I think in the category, if people are getting antsy. Six or seven we like. Yeah, like the Texans, the Pats, the Cowboys, the Chargers, the Browns a little bit,

the Bengals we like, Saints at minus three, we really like. So. Yeah, like if it's down to six and a half seven, the Browns and we got eight and a half, eight in the contest, we'll probably have to do it.

Yeah, we'd probably have to do it. Yeah, we'd have to do it. All right, let's talk about our money line round Robin parlay. And then we got to do some scoge roulette. Your dog likes my dog. I did not like this week. Like last week I feel like we had three games that were just like good money lines. We did.

We had three winners last week. We had the commanders. We had the Vikings. We had the Vikings. We have someone else, I think. Pittsburgh. We'll start off easy. Bears, no-brainer.

Like, that's one of those again. If you got a three, I would just take the money line there. I could either see them one in this game or losing by two touchdowns. That's how the Bears have been this season and up and down team. Give me the Bears as our first leg. Game, we didn't even touch on a game. I didn't get much info from pros about, so I didn't really have a feel for. I think everyone's a little scared off in the professional community of this Giants team,

but Detroit feels like a smart side. but a smart sign of the sense that I'm just going to take their money line. I'm not going to mess with the points here. We're on the stinkier games this week. So start off with the Bears. Give me the Troy. I know Chad wants to do it. I can't do it.

I can't even say it. But I'll have to say it. Colts. Yeah, throw them in there. Dude, we were in a mind meld right there. You said it at the exact same time. I know it, though. And you're spot on about it.

It's like teams go through different periods in the season where they just drop games. We've seen it. We've just saw it with the bills. The bills have dropped two games that shit. No one projecting out. so them losing the Jets and then Minnesota at home. It's just, that's wonky parts of the season. That could be easily be the Eagles here,

dropping a game with Washington, dropping a game with the Colts. Give me Houston, no-brainer. We love them at a home in a bounce-back spot here. And top of it off, our big balls bet, Chargers outright win. It's not our big balls bet. Since he is our big balls bet. Fuck, you're right.

But still, the Chargers should be in this money line parloric. You're right. You got to mark that. I will listen. No, because I wrote, I wrote, I rode chargers and big balls, and I forgot to cross it out. You're right.

Is it because you want chargers and big balls? No, I'm good with either of them. They're both, to me, take huge balls. They both make me feel sick. Fucking balls. Well, you won Scutrelette, brother. I won Scutrelette last week. I did.

I had the Steelers. You had Denver. Last night I got a tax for old school, the old school fans of the odds, the old school fans of the Behind the Betts podcast at ESPN and then the buffet with Scooch. One of the main characters in The Odds, he was the golden boy. His name is Jim Corona. Jim Corona is now a massive executive in Vegas, has been for a long time.

He was sort of the apprentice bookmaker to Bob Scootie and Joe Lupo at the Stardust in the late 90s when I was doing the book, The Odds. and love Jim Corona. He texted me. He texted Bob Scoochie and he texted Joe Lupo last night because someone had asked him to sign a copy of the odds. So shout out to Scooch. Shout out to Jim Corona.

Shout out to Joe Lupo. Yeah. As we play this latest round of Scooch Roulette. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play. Scoutch roulette. It's so ugly. I feel like I chose the Texans for exact decision.

I'll take the Chargers plus six. There you go. I'm all in. I have to do it. I don't even have a choice. Give me Dallas minus one and a half. I'm all in on this week. It might be your biggest bed of the year.

Yeah, it's shaping up that way. And it's the worst because now I can't sleep. Like I won't, starting Friday, I will not be able to sleep. It's just, there's just too much on the line. but it's I feel good. I honestly do. Like I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So trying to keep under wraps.

Don't want the bad karma. But going within Scute Roulette, need the win. Where are we at right now? What am I seven? I'm six and four in Scooch roulette. You are seven and three in Scooch roulette. Listen, neck and neck right now. I started off hot.

You had a little bit of a run. We're both coming off hot right now. So six and four, seven, and three. Yeah, I did a little thing we like to call cheating, but not really. Just smart betting. I just rode Seattle. Yeah, it doesn't matter. I know.

Guy. I just saw Seattle getting hot here. I was just like, you know what? I'm just going to ride them in the scuttrellette, and it served me well. Wins or wins? True. All right. I think we've done it all.

Remind you next week. Next week, we have a normal episode on Tuesday. And we are off on Thursday because as Matt Mitchell says, nobody's fucking listens in a podcast Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving week. And those looking to join us on AMP, God willing, it will work. We will be on at 145 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. Tell them where they can catch us, though. Where they can catch us on Thursday and Sunday. You can catch us on Thursday and Sunday on Convince Me. Nice job. Simon, Jesus Christ, I can't believe that like this is only your third or fourth year doing it. There are people who have been

doing this for 20 fucking years or third. 30 years like me, who would forget to tell people where to catch us. Watch us and convince me. Me, Simon, Raybon, Kroner, Dan Ravel, Samantha Paviti. We have a Thursday episode, Action Network HQ on Twitter, in the app, on YouTube. And then we have a Sunday episode, 11 a.m. Eastern. Catch us. It'll be awesome.

We'll be doing a lot of talking about gambling as we do. And download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Don't forget, rate, review, subscribe. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, the greatest producer ever, cares about you guys more than you know. I'm Shad Milman. Love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

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