The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 13

Episode Date: December 2, 2022

Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to narrow down their top plays across the NFL Week 13 slate. Will it be lucky number 13 for the duo? Or will they enact their required bye week in the contest? Hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week, Scooch Roulette, and so much more. #Volume #ColinCowherd #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It might be cold, but the sports calendar is heating up and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduel. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. And Fanduel is now live in Maryland. So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to make every moment more this football season.

Must be 21 or older. And in select states, call 1-800 gambler. or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-800 next step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-888-78-9-77-77. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana.

Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. Call 1-877-750-70 stop in Louisiana. 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467, 369 in New York. Tennessee Redline is 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-9. Call 1-800-2-2-470 in Wyoming or visit www. www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

I am joined as I am for every episode by my co-host, my companion, my compadry, my BFF, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. What's going on, brother? Listen, when last we spoke, the U.S. was playing Iran. We were hoping they'd advance in the World Cup. You tried to claim that this is the one time every four years that Americans fall in love

of soccer. I refute that premise and say Americans are always sports fans. And this happens to be the event that is capturing their attention right now. And I think every American sports fan would look for an excuse to stop working from 2 to 4 p.m. in the middle of a Tuesday afternoon in order to watch something. And I will say that second half of that Iran-U-S game was excruciating. Like you can see why people love watching soccer so much and why it evokes such passion because that was fucking intense.

Well, I always try to explain to Americans as it's like playoff baseball. It's the same kind of feeling of it's always a one-run game or a one-nothing game. and you're living and dying by every touch and every little thing. So, yeah, that was a really exciting game. Now, before we dive in, Chad, I do have a bonapick with Miami Dolphin fans. Okay, let's hear it. All right. We did a show.

And usually me and Chad, I'll get hate mail. I mean, every day I'll probably get three to four DMs on Twitter after a show. Nothing out of the normal. So I go to bed, I wake up Wednesday morning, so our show post. And it's multitudes of DMs from Miami Dolphin fans. upset at me and Chad about us simply talking about the dolphins having

a hard schedule coming up and the fact they haven't played that hard of its schedule what the hell happened? It was a bizarre world of just really nasty, mean things said to me and people that have messaged back because usually I don't read or look at DMs, but when it's that many, I had to look.

I told the people, if you go back in August, I gave out them to win that division. Like I was a Miami supporter or Miami fan. If Chad was to bring up their schedule and I agree with them. We're just talking about the matchups they have going forward. And it's like, there's just certain people. It's like, don't take things so serious, okay?

Especially when you've forgotten away, that many people, it's like, you're on a rock flying through space, around another rock that's on fire, a million degrees in the void of vastness of the darkness of space. Don't be so upset. Don't be so mean. I couldn't believe it. Dolphin fans have been cool this year. That is the most angry fired up I've had a fan base.

It made me feel like Stephen A for us. second. But we didn't really give a take. We were simply stating the fact of they had an easier schedule those last couple games and now that it's about to get very tough. And I totally agree what Chad said about the fact that it is going to get tough and it will be really interesting to see what two is made of and what kind of team is. And that, that to me just was funny to me though, how upset people got off. So I just had to comment to the really angry, I would say 10 to 20 fans of Miami Dolphins. I love your perspective. I love your context. Hashtag. Hashtag gratitude.

Yeah. Like the amount of time we are on this earth is so small. I'm just not going to get really mad at commentators who say mean things about the teams that I like. Especially when all we're saying is that their schedule gets harder. And it does. The last six games, they have played basically bad teams at home. The next six games, they play good teams. On the road.

Those are the facts. People were not living in an alternative truth universe. That's just what it is. We didn't say Tua sucks. I think he's having a great year. Big fan, huge fan of Mike McDaniel. I like, I love watching his TikToks. I think the way he communicates with his team is amazing.

He's hilarious. He's hilarious. Big fan of everything they're doing. Schedule was just fucking hard the rest of the year, people. Now I'm getting lit up in the chat, seeing him soft as an Eagles fan. I am not soft. I'm just bringing it up to the forefront of like, please save your nasty DMs.

It was just, it just was just so out of place where if we came on here and just shit on the dolphins for 20 minutes, I would understood it. It was just, it felt like we barely even touched on it. It was just us talking about how hard their schedule is. Just interesting. Listen,

I'm glad people are listening on AMP. That's awesome. A reminder that today we will try to filter down to our final five for our favorite picks for Sunday. You can follow those picks. We will log them in the Action Network app. The Faves Five, usually do that around noon on Sunday. I'll put notes in there based on where the line is for our contest, which locks on Wednesday, versus where the line is.

At that point, do we still like it? Why are we making those decisions? We will give out our big balls, bed of the week. We will finalize Scoot Roulette. Reminder, I won last week. Simon lost. We'll lose some money lying around Robin. also reminder,

foxhole, 49ers minus three and a half. I'm a little nervous about that. Speaking up, even though all the dolphins talk we just had, I'm still nervous. That line is now at four. Simon says,

Giants plus two and a half, exact decision, the ED, SINC-E plus two and a half. Before we get to any of it, let's do. Sharp calls. Who's there?

I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, Maybe what you're doing? Sharp calls was rough for your boy this week, Chad. A lot of hate coming at time from a lot of the guys I bet with and work with. The biggest ones, they're on your side by semi-pro friend.

They love your idea on the Titans. They're with you on the Titans. It's a lonely feeling going against the pros and the public. It really is because there's just really no one left with you. And I got exactly what they're saying is what you're pretty much saying. You're getting very able to big numbers as a dog. he's been very profitable, especially on the money line. You take him in these positions.

It's been very profitable. But I was, I get where they're coming from. My whole view of it is we saw last week what the Bengals were able to do with taking Derek Henry away. And that kind of shut down that whole offense. And the Eagles this week, I had heard some whispers that we were supposed to get Jordan Davis back. And then we just saw him come off IR this week.

Now it's three weeks he could come back. He doesn't have to come back this week. It could be next week or the week after that. So I was trying to get ahead of the number for one of those reasons is he's the best runstop for the Eagles half. He is a game changer for that team. He eats up doubles. So not surprising. The pros, they love the Titans with Chad.

The other biggest one, I know a really, really smart group that came in heavy on the Bengals, and they took a large position at two and a half on them. You've seen that number dropping out a one, one and a half. Doesn't surprise me. We and Chad talked about that game. We'll talk about it again today. That just felt like a game that the pros would be on. of the public would just be hammering the chiefs.

They're going to have that, even though it's through zero, they're going to be teasing that number up, like down, whatever, plus four, plus five. They're going to have their money lines. That's going to be one of the bigger pros versus Joe's games this week. And another game that Chad is going to feel maybe a little better now they knows this. There's a really, really smart group that, you know, I gave out that big Dallas bet. They've taken a huge, huge position on this 49ers team. They took a big position on it Monday.

another position again Tuesday morning and then again on Wednesday. And they finally have moved it up at most books to minus four. So that's going to be another game this week of the public will be all over Miami for good reason. What we talked about, they have a lot of talent on offense. But interesting when you hear a professional group making a large position play on a four-ninner team that three and a half is a key number. So if you if you wanted to get Miami a four, it seems like all week to be able to get

that four just because the pros are going to be better than that way. Oh my God. This is so exciting. So on the Titans, just some context, the number opened at six and a half, got bet down to five and a half. This morning, it's at four and a half. I'll say I've seen some four and a halfs. Yeah, down to four and a half this morning. Massive amount of money coming in on the Titans.

In the Niners Dolphins game, to your point, Simon, the majority of the money coming in on the dolphins, majority of the tickets coming in on the Dolphins, The line is moved in the other direction, which tells you the professionals are playing the 49ers. And they're just betting it constantly. So they've just been betting it multiple states, multiple books for four days now. Really interesting. And then finally, the Bengals and the Chiefs, this is a pros Joe's game, but very close. 5449 is the split and 51% is the money on the bangles. And then the last one, just because we're going to have to talk.

about it just because I've kind of flipped on it. It's the Vikings Jets. You're back at the Jets? I've heard a lot of rumblings about the Jets. A lot. And I didn't want to do it because, again, it's Mike White on the road, but, you know, I have guys that call him up. They're going to smack me around a little bit and be like, you fucking idiot. Look at the Jets defense. Stop looking at Mike White. I look at the cornerbacks and how they're going to be able to stop and play against his Vikings team. So again, it's trying to be humble and take and listen to my elders and respect my elders and kind of take their position where I just thought it was a good spot

for this Vikings team at home, catching the Jets team after, again, Mike White played arguably a perfect game. So it could be misreading it, but if Chad wants to talk me into taking the Jets, I'll probably will be able to be talking to it because it just seems like a lot of really smart people are on that side, and I might be overlooking,

just such a dominant defense of this Jets team is. Yeah, we'll get into it. I listen to Stucky and Raybond on the Action Network podcast, and they've always got incredible breakdowns. And Raybon, or was it Stucky? No, I can't remember. But one of them had an incredible breakdown of the Jets. So.

Like supporting the Jets? Supporting the Jets. Okay. Yeah. It seems like that's the purpose of it. It was Stucky. It was Stucky. Matt Mitchell?

That's right. Okay. Matt Mitchell says it was Stucky. So let's get into it. Let's talk about the Jets. Let's talk about the Jets right away. Because, you know, on Tuesday, like, we immediately thought Vikings because of the perception and the blowout. But again, Vikings had another one-score game, probably got lucky with the Hunter Henry call on the Patriots, not being a touchdown.

Here was something really interesting that was pointed out by Stucky. 31st in the NFL defending short passes. 65% of Mike White's completions last week were on short passes. And this, I think, was Raybon pointed out that on paper, the Jets are a better team. Yeah. Like 9th and overall DVOA, 18th on offense DVOA, fourth on defense DVOA. Vikings 22nd, 20th, and 23rd in those categories. And by the way, the Jets were doing all of that was Zach Wilson.

And I will say to people, the only fear is all year the Vikings had this number and they keep winning and somehow fucking covers. They're just that stupid team that way. So that was what I said to the guy was just the fact that I wanted just to take the Vikings at two and a half. I felt like that was going to be a nice price. I have this line at three. And he said, well, you fucking idiot. Just take the Jets plus three then. That's the right side.

That's the team that's better. They're well coached. Their defense matches up really well against what this Vikings team wants to do. And those are fair arguments. But there is magic to this Viking. team, which is like one of those stupid things. We can't account for number wise, but I can't look at this Jets team and say to myself, what's their biggest weakness? And it's Mike White. And if this kid's playing, like the way he's going to be played last week, there's no weakness

to this Jets team. There really are filled out really well. Like their wire receiver, wide receiver position is very, very, very, very, very, very, very balanced. Like the Zach Wilson stuff, that was on Zach Wilson. They have the weapons. Gary Wilson, he's a great receiver. So So Mike White, you got away with a couple ones last week, but I feel like you just talked about this, this Vikings team, they're just not that good. Like, what is their point differential, plus five or something crazy like that? So I know they're nine and two and it's, it's really incredible what they've done this year or 10 and two, but man, can they keep getting away with this, Chad?

At plus three, I feel like you're right. That's the smart side to take. It's just, are we going to be able to take plus two and a half? because that's going to probably be the choice. And, you know, we were both pissed. Last week, that scared us off the Cardinals where, you know, we should have been on it at plus two and a half. So it'll be interested to see what we do with the contest on that number.

Look, this number right now, it's at three, opened it four and a half. Money coming in in the jets. It's probably going to go to two and a half. It will because like a sharp book already has at two and a half. So it's going to go two and a half. It's going to go to two and a half. And I think that whoever you spoke to about the Jets,

it doesn't matter who's playing quarterback. We cannot expect Mike White to do what he did in the rain against a really bad bear's defect. You know, the Vikings can get more pressure, right? And so they will be able to get in his face. But the Jets defense is just so good. Right. And I feel like that's the reason you take the three. That's the reason you got to take the three.

Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what we get in the contest. But I do like the Jets at plus three. Let's talk about Let's revisit the Falcons right now

because they are at home this line has gone up they're plus one right now I cannot understand for the life of me why anybody would take the Steelers in this spot

I like Kenny Pickett I think he's a gamer I think he's going to be a serviceable, if not better, professional. Been really impressed with how he's evolved from being thrown into the fire to being better after the by week. We saw it against New Orleans. We saw it against Cincinnati. We saw it against the Colts.

But they shouldn't be row favorites. This isn't a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. This is a pet the Falcons who probably should be playing for the division and still have a shot at it. why would I not bet the Falcons here? Give it to him. Yeah, and the Tomlin Magic made sense when Pittsburgh was a dog. But now that's stripped in their favorite, it's like this is kind of when you want to get off the Tomlin and the Pittsburgh train.

And you're right about Kenny. This is a big spot for a rookie to be put in on the road against an Atlanta team. Yeah, they've had some struggles here, but I don't expect those struggles continue. They're getting healthier as the season's gone along. The issues now is what's this offense really going to look like? You're down pits, which I know he wasn't a huge factor, but the defense still had to equate for that. And Drake London has been targeted like he should be for this offense.

So that's the questions with Atlanta right now. You kind of have a losing trust in their offense of late. They're just, they seem like they're not functioning well. Teams have been able to defend them better. But it's it's hard to look at it and just think to yourself that this Atlanta team, like you just said, shouldn't be closer to a field goal favorite in a game. against a Pittsburgh team that that's a big task to ask them to keep winning these close, hard games and how they're going up against a team that just lost.

Again, you know, they probably not just win, but at least cover. So the public, to no one's surprise, is going to come in heavy on Pittsburgh, right? They've been good to them where Atlanta, since starting the season 6 and O, ATS, they've struggled. I mean, they have struggled, especially against the spread. So it feels like another game show where it's just going to be me and you and a couple pros on Atlanta. the public will be all over Pittsburgh in this position. You loved the Giants the other day.

I don't know if the Falcons make it into the contest, though. We'll see. Yeah, it depends on the number. Depends on the number. The truth is, we're not going to get better than I think one and a half on the Falcons. If I had to predict in the contest, we won't get better than one and a half. You love the Giants two and a half. It was your Simon says play.

Remind people why that is. I love them coming in the week. Not only is this a good spot to take a divisional matchup, home team. The biggest fact in this game is just that the Giants have been on a slump here. The last couple of weeks they have not been playing well. The injuries seem to have caught up to them where Washington has been going the other direction, right? They've been outperforming. The bounces have been going their way.

We already talked about their six and one in their last seven, which is just insane to think about that. They've done this with Heineke, an undrafted quarterback. But he's played well. Like they've schemed it right. He's using the weapons around him right. But now you're getting a Giants team that's a home dog and a really, really scrappy one at that, that usually in these games, this is where you want it back, a Giants team. Like, they're, what's catching up to them is teams are kind of figuring out what they want

to do on offense, right? These naked bootlegs and getting Daniel Jones out wide and kind of getting them on the mood. And I agree, teams have figured that out, but I assume they're going to be able to counter that. And looking at this Washington team, they've struggled against the run. And now you're getting Saquan in a good spot against a team that's struggled against the run. So I made the closer to a pick.

That's my biggest scripting of this. It's like if you're getting plus two and a half, plus three with the Giants, you just have to take that special divisional game. I thought we would get to the three because I thought the public would come in really heavy on Washington, but it seems like it's split so far at this point. So if you didn't get the two and a half and it's down to two, you might better wait. I do think I'll go back up to two and a half. I'm surprised that nobody, none of the Sharps called us about this.

Yeah, it wasn't the one they loved. I mean, again, the biggest one they talked about to me, they hated my Eagles pick. and they love the Bengals pick. That was, and the 49ers. Like those three, we really talked about a lot. Yep. Just the fact there's multiple groups hitting it. Again, they're not making big bets every week,

but it is interesting when teams take, when different groups take positions on games, I'm the opposite of it. And I'm just like, shit. The same way last week. Like, you talk about Tennessee Bengals one. It's like, I'm with you. I would have loved to been all over that Bengals one.

That was a great read, but it's like, fuck, man. These guys, they know what they're doing. They take a large position like this usually works out for him. So that's the balance with listening to these guys and trying to fight through what's right and what's wrong. So, all right, so that's our take on the Giants. Let's go back a little bit to the Bengals because I loved the Bengals the other day.

And to me, if you're getting Jamar Chase back, which I think you are, yeah, he'll be back. You're getting Joe Mixing back. I understand the history with Patrick Mahomes that when he is a favorite of less than three,

he's generally unbeatable. Right. In November and December, he literally is unbeatable, winning 26 consecutive games. I don't even think of that. Shit.

But listen, that's damning. No, I even think of that. He does not lose in December. A, we don't need him to, we don't need him to lose. We just need the game to be less than, you know,

points. Yeah, just need him to miss an extra point. This Bengals team has been really strong on defense. And I think Joe Burroughs just in his own, man. He's seeing it. And, you know, we talk about this all the time. And this is germane to Deshawn Watson, too. And you said it like on Tuesday.

We don't know what we're getting with Deshawn Watson because, and I'm going to get to the point, he hasn't played for two years. Yeah. Quarterbacks need training camp. They need practice reps. They need a lot of those things. and then they need game reps. Joe Burrow basically didn't play in training camp.

And so it took him four to five weeks to get where he needed to be. And now he's doing exactly what we would expect him to do. And I don't think Kansas City has the defense to be able to pressure him in the way that he needs to be pressured to be uncomfortable at home when he's got a really powerful offense. Yeah, and even if they do get a little bit of pressure, we touched on the fact that the chief secondary is all young. and they're small.

And he's got his big body in Higgins and his big body in Chase on the outside. That's what Joe's kind of leaning on nowadays, where if he's getting pressure, like you said, we'll just put it up to his guys down the sideline rather than even take the sack or the hit. So Patrick Wilhomes, congratulations on having a baby boy. Yes, very happy for him.

I know it was funny the other day I was watching. What clip was it? It was some clip. It might have been Brady's kid dropping back and like throwing a pass. And, you know, Archie Manning, playing football. Like it just made me think of this next generation

we might get of quarterbacks from all these Hall of Famers. It's just what a great time to be a football fan. Oh my God, it's amazing. So just for this game, I don't know. What do you want to do with? Would you want to put it in our contest?

Yeah. I had no fear on this. All right. No fear. I play with confidence. Yeah, I would, I wouldn't, I would not be uncomfortable. One and a half, you're cool with it.

No. That's what's going to be. I guess my feeling on this is... And I don't know that. Like, I haven't looked, but I just... I basically, the contest has been ahead of it. They usually go the sharp line. Like, they're going to go with what they think the pros are going to bid it to.

So I'm looking at a book right now that I trust. It's one and a half. I'll pull up the one we use, but that's what I feel like it's going to be. It's... It'll be hard for me not to take it Sunday because it is... It's just such a good. spot the back of Sinti team that Joe is just he's the same thing as my homes like whoever has the ball last is going to win this game. I like that we're getting the point in a half still in it

in this matchup but yeah this week like there's three or four games I really like and this is one of them. It'll be a good conversation on Sunday. Another game, have we touched on multiple games that you really like so far? Like we both love Sincy. Would you say that you feel wrongest about CINC Jets and Giants? I would say CINC 49ers right now. I'm my two favorite this week.

All right. So that was the next game I want to talk about, was the 49ers. Yeah. The only thing that concerns me is that Kyle Shanahan in this spot at home as a favorite, he calls a different game. It's almost like he gets more conservative.

And I'm worried about McCaffrey being banged up. I'm worried about Jimmy G. being banged up. I'm worried that what Waddle and Tyreek Hill can do on the edges is so confounding. It makes me nervous. Like the fact that you've got a massive group coming in on the Niners is interesting to me. Yeah, it's nice. And I think they're looking at it where I go with my stuff is the D-Line O line. matchups and that's where you can find a lot of value.

Game, we didn't touch. Maybe we'll talk about at the end for the amp fans of that, that Bill's New England game. You've seen that line move and people are like, why is it moving so much? Is that just because of the professional money? And it's, no, there's a major injury to the Bill's offensive line and Von Miller's out as well. So it's like, if you're a left hat, you're starting left tackle is out and your arguably best edge rushers out, that's going to move a number. People always think it's just mainly the quarterbacks, running backs, or whoever are going to move it. But it's like, the books are smart. They understand how important offensive.

and defensive lines are. That's what this matchups all about here. Miami, as great as they have looked these last couple weeks, look at the matchups, their offensive lines go against defensively, like what defensive line they've played against. And we've seen the games that Miami struggled this year, it's being against really good defensive lines. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows oh too well.

That game, the bills lost. Their defensive line dominated Miami's offense. Miami's offensive maybe three big plays against the bills in that game. That's how they won it, just a wacky game. We saw that again when they played the Jets, even though he went out of the game and he got banged up to in that game. The Jets' defensive line was absolutely dominating this Miami's offensive line. So I think they're betting that, okay, we totally agree. I mean, I sent you that video of that Saints fan losing his shit.

We totally agree. The Saints easily should have covered that game. They outplayed them. They had all the opportunities too to that. Jimmy completely laid an egg. That's why I feel so good about taking four-nine. They just had a game when they laid an egg and they got away with it. now they're not going to be overlooking this Miami team.

It made sense they might have a little overlooked that. Shane's going to have his guys ready for this matchup, especially against his pupil and McDaniel. So I love everything about it. Like the four, it scares me a little bit. I'm hoping we can get the three and a half because that's what I bet a lot of money on. That's what I'd rather get in the contest.

But I'd still take it a four. That's what I make the game. You just know I fucking hate pushes. So that would piss me off. But three and a half you can still find it. I'd grab it just as it's a matchup of how real are both these teams, which you already talked about. Like, this is going to be an awesome game in a sense we,

but we're really going to figure out which team is legit from this game. Because if Miami can move the ball, like we think they could be able to with Tyreek and Waddle and their line can hold up against Bosa. And that's a real key matchup to watch. Then, yeah, Miami's real. If not, it just knocks them down to Peg. We're just like, okay, the bills are still the class of that division. And Miami's got, you know, a rough road against them.

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Can we talk about a disgusting game right now that I love we got three gross games. We got Colts plus 11 on the road at Dallas. We got the Browns minus 7 on the road at Houston, which Houston is treating like it's Super Bowl. The city is treating it like... I know. And we got the Rams.

There we go. Plus eight, actually down to seven and a half because the wise guys have come in on the Rams. I don't know why. Say it. Seahawks. Dude, you know what we're doing right now? Yeah.

Big bowl, bed of the week, my friend. It is. He loved the Rams when everyone's jumped off the ship. It's empty. Aaron Donald, he's never missed a game. He's finally jumped off the ship. So it is the biggest ball is bet, maybe of the year that we're going to make. No-brainer, have to bet this, especially at seven and a half.

Yep. What do we do in the contest? I feel like this could be a really interesting play in the contest. This is some game theory here. If we want to make up ground and it's getting late in the year, this might be a play that we got to make because I don't think a lot of people will take the Rams. Luckily we've been so good though.

We don't even need to do that BS yet. Because again, we had a bad week. I just look, we're three back still. So it's like if we were five back or six, maybe I started doing a little bit of game three. But with us, we just got to still just find the winners at this point. So seven and a half though, like no. no brain or automatic play six and a half that's when it's like oh man that yeah that's tough

it's not going to be at six and a half the game hasn't gone below seven and a half yet that's true that's true but at the same time this time last week when we did the cardinals they were three and a half and for some reason they put them two and a half like they knew that number was going to jump down but that could have been just because they knew collier was going to come back um bastards that's what they are yeah the the interesting interesting game like you just told me out that houston one was i heard a couple guys that love that i think they're going the same things you do of like not that they've been betting and losing money every week on Houston but it feels like a couple of these guys have been like they're my love for the Jaguars

has been kind of their love for Houston um which I look at this line as one of the fisher lines of the week in a sense that like you just said it I've seen a couple books at six and a half Houston that means you can tease down Cleveland to half a point they just need to simply win the game so yeah maybe the books are giving us a free one there because I'm very tempted just to take that tease because it's like, and what world do they not win? I can see him maybe not covering, right? This is like a close game.

Watson, if you watch any of the tape of him in practice, he's sailing balls over guys, just not in rhythm with a, what is it, 12 weeks he hasn't practiced with any of these guys. So that is a big deal like Chad was just talking about. So Houston and Rams are two games of Chad. Again, we have a lot of games I love this week. If he came in with one of them was like,

you got to take one, I would be all bored this Sunday. Just six and a half, seven. I would take Houston in the contest. Seven and a half, no brain I would take the ramp. So we'll have one of those two ugly dogs in for sure this weekend. I really think the Seahawks are overvalued right now. So are the Browns. Like you're getting such a bonus on, such inflation on Deshawn Watson.

Another game, I'm narrowing down on our list here. You love the Raiders at plus two. Yeah. And that number is moved. explain your logic. Well, the main love for it was... Against the Chargers, by the way. Yeah, Raiders Chargers.

The main love was of the matchup of this Chargers defense versus Raiders' offense that we just saw move the ball at will running the ball against the Seahawks. And the Chargers cannot stop the run. They have major injuries to their detack position. That's the biggest weakness. And I flipped the other side of the Herbert effect

of, yeah, he might win this game. But he wins a lot of... him close. He's just a guy that plays really close games. And you're now giving me the Raiders, a divisional dog at home playing against a Chargers team that they're just the darling of the public. The public simply loves this Chargers team. And it feels like we're in the exact same scenario last year. Hell, it might have been week. Yeah, it was Week 18 because I remember everyone about the tie. We had the Raiders versus the Chargers and the winner got into the playoffs. So, of course, the public hammered Herbert. They love the Chargers. And the line just

sat at three, three and a half all week. And the books were happy. They let everyone come in, bet that number went overtime. The Raiders won out right anyway. So in this same kind of matchup, these teams really haven't changed that much. If anything, they've both gotten slightly worse. I mean, the Oakland, I mean, Vegas's defense, they're terrible. Chargers defense is even worse than they were last year. The problem is, again, what we talked about on Tuesday. If there's no Jacobs, that's where I have pause on this. Like, he's the really what gets it going for this Vegas team. Like he is their offense.

We saw how Dominie was. He's not practicing all week. I do think he's going to play. Like resting all week, you expect him to be back. If he is back, Chad, we're getting one and a half two in the contest. Yeah, I would still take this number. It's just simply, just like the Giants play. It's a home divisional dog on a team that's just being undervalued.

Vegas, we saw that historical thing of, they had three different games. They were out of the 17-point leads and they lost. That had never happened. in the NFL before. So we saw the early, early, early woes of this McDaniels coach team early in the season. Now, these last couple weeks, they've seen like they really started figuring things out and turning things around. Like they know how to win.

So as long as Jacobs is playing in this game shot, I would take this. Let me ask you a question. Right now, I feel like we feel pretty good about the Niners. We feel pretty good about the Bengals. We will, I'm willing to bet that will bet on the Rams. are you feeling like you could play the Titans right now? Like if you wanted to do it, I would do it just because I respect your opinion,

I respect these other guys' opinions. So it's like I just, I knew I was going to be on island with it. I just knew in my heart of hearts where I told you I felt this line blindly before I ran the numbers. It was going to be three, three and a half. That's just because it was two and a half,

it was two the week before. Eagles won. Titans didn't make sense, right? books bump it up to three and a half three what the hell they shot it all up to six and a half it just did not make sense and like i my first original in bed was grabbing the six grabbing the six and a half and the fact that it didn't just drop all the way back down which i thought it should of four and a half that that started giving me more confidence of being like okay chad's right this probably is the right side but it's just a fishy fishy line i just will never get why i was

so far above three three and a half and it could be the a j brown effect that this is going to be such a revenge spot for him? And can the Titans offense keep up with an Eagles offense that is top three in points right now? They are a high-powered, high-flying offense. We haven't seen the Titans in many shootouts. We've not seen them really being games at our shootouts, and they're on the road against an Eagles team that at home, they put up points. And that's the difference to me. So it's the fear of the books know what they're doing and they're sucking me in because I told you every ounce of my body is screaming, you have to take the thing. It's just like the New England. thing. It's like you have to take Newland against the bill is at home here, but I'm just trying

to fight it off. It's just, it's like a six cents. It's just too stinky. I don't, I don't like it. I could be wrong. So if, yeah, it's five and a half chat and you're like, hey, asshole, we're putting this one in. You're wrong on this. I'd be in because it's just, if you're taking a big enough stand like that, who am I to say you're wrong? Because I'm, I'm not, I am in on the Eagles. It's not one of my bigger bets of the week, though. What about, uh, we haven't talked much about the Lions and the Jags. Another split game between the pros. Yeah, and that line

has just been bouncing back and forth. Like, Jacks plus one, Jags minus one, Lions plus one, Lions minus one. I'm feeling a little more confident about the Lions. Yeah, I knew you liked them too, where it's, I agreed with you. If it got up to two and a half three, I would have been there with you on Detroit

because that's too big of a number for this Jaguars team. But, oh, man. It's a coin flip game. to me, though. That's why I just wouldn't feel comfortable putting the contest where it's like, if you gave me a two and a half or a three on either side, that wouldn't be the play to me. But it's not. It's lined as a coin flip game. Yeah, it is.

And it should be because it's like both teams have had such incredible weeks and then such egg laying weeks where you really don't know where you're getting week to week. And your love for Detroit, the only reason I want to back it is they're coming off such a bad home loss. Now they're at home again against the Jaguars team that. I've seen all the trends that they have not historically been, you know, played well on the road. Doug Pearson is trying to change all that, but he hasn't to this point. Even this year, they have not played well on the road.

So another game, Chad, where come Sunday you might be able to flip me, but right now, my Jaggs Homer hats on, I can't flip on Thursday show. All right. Is there any game you feel like we're missing? I feel like we've got a lot of wait and sees, like 49ers, Rams, bangles. and then we're a wait and see on the Raiders for Josh Jacobs we're waiting to see on the Titans

to see where the line is I think we're we're leaning jets but we don't know if we'll put it in the contest I bet I'm on jets now like if it would go all in on the jets in the contest okay yeah like I'm on the three now

okay so then that's four with like it looks like three or four Titans Las Vegas, maybe Atlanta. We'll see what we even talk about it. Another game that I could somehow be talked into

would be your love for the Broncos of. Lamar popped up an injury, had an injury of a quad, was held out of practice. That's a big deal with this Ravens team now. Like their superstars are not practicing. Mark Andrews has not been practicing with Lamar. We saw him have key drops in that game. In the end zone have drops.

that's big for a team that just has not been healthy this year. So you have a couple buddies, again, a couple pros that agree with Chad. I have such a fear of this Broncos team, just all the negativity. But the biggest reason I want to bet on now is that stupid article you saw put out about half Russell Wilson's teammates coming to his birthday party. So now I've got to hear from every asshole I run to be like, yeah, easy is better than the week, right? Ravens, like they're going to shit on that team. Like they already quit on Russ.

And it's like, fuck. And every time someone says that, it makes me want to bet the Broncos. So that's another game where if Jack comes to me on Sunday, it's going to be hard to fight him off because he's just, he's right what he talked about. We're getting two to three free points on this Broncos team. They're just, they've been absolutely terrible, but it's mainly on Russ. It's just week to week.

We don't know what kind of rust we're going to get. I mean, eight and a half points. Can we really, can we really be comfortable going in on the Rams and the Broncos and maybe Texans? Like even that is so, so gross. I know. No, it feels like a good week, though, to go ugly. Like, there's some ugly game.

It does, doesn't it? The lines do make sense in these games. It really does feel like that kind of week. All right. So I think we've talked enough about those games. Leaning towards Jets, leaning towards Rams, leaning towards CINCII, leaning towards Niners.

and then sort of last in, first out amongst potentially Titans, potentially Broncos, potentially Las Vegas if Josh Jacobs is playing. Yeah, okay. And that makes sense. Again, it's week 13, like injury reports at this point of the year. It's everything. So that's a couple of these games. That's honestly what I'm really waiting on.

I just need to know who's in, who's out, especially for a couple of these key positions. All right. I won Scutteulet last week. I'm dead brother, we're tied up. Tied up. We are tied. You're on my ass. I'm scared now.

How do I not, like at this point, how do I not take the Titans? Wow. I thought you were going to go with your darlings. All right. I'm taking the Titans. Give me the 49ers. All right. Three and a half of Fandall.

Thank you, Fandle. All right. What's the best number I can get in the Titans right now? I'll let you grab the five. Is there a five? available? Yeah. I mean,

I'm looking at five and a half but offshore but yeah, if you want to grab a five in America, there's fives.

Well, I bet legally. Titans plus five. I'll take that. Yeah, exactly. Mondayline Ron Robin. I mean,

look, Rams, Broncos, Texans, Colts. All right, let's start over. Go Rams.

Who'd you like? Broncos? I'm fucking around. I don't know that like I'd ask. I do have an ugly dog I want to throw in there that I just the whole city is behind it. Texans. We have to go to Texans money line against that scumbag Watson like got to got to go with got to go with Houston so go Houston giants. I mean I'm not going to fight chat on it because it says it's one of his darlands Tennessee um jets and then Rams. So two uglies. Wow. Texans and Rams. Yeah. Because I, I,

I just can't see a world where the Colts win. I really want to do that because that would be such a classic Dallas choke spot. But we've seen this Colts team, their upsets have come at home. They really haven't done it on the road. So I'll do, I'll go with the Rams and just, that feels like the ugliest dog. Again, another money line. No one's going to bet you have it, but me and you. Let me see how many people have bet the money line here.

Yeah, so it's on our app, it's less than 18% of the money. Oh, boy. No one's betting that money line. No. Nobody is. Let's see. All right. So Texans, Giants, I'm going slow so people on AMP can hear this.

Texans, Giants, Titans, Jets, Rams for the money line, round robin. Parlay. Again, Scoot Roulette. Simon took the Niners minus three and a half. I took the Titans plus five. Big balls, Rams, plus eight. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network for producer extraordinaire, Matt Mitchell, for my BFF Simon Hunter. I am Chad Milman.

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