The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 15

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

Peace on Earth and mercy mild, gamblers and sportsbooks reconciled! NFL underdogs have dominated against the spread for much of the season, but favorites have slowly crept back into bettors' good graces in recent weeks. Today, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to narrow down their top plays across the board. Now that games are being played on Thursdays, Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays there has never been a better chance to catch multiple games each week. Who will be the Big Balls Bet of Week 15? And will the guys select a Thursday night winner for their contest lineup? #Volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It might be cold, but the sports calendar is heating up and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduel. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. And Fanduel is now live in Maryland. So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to make every moment more this football season.

Must be 21 or older. And in select states, call 1-800 gambler. or visit Fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-800 next step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-88-789-7777. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana.

Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. Call 1-877-750-stop in Louisiana. 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467, 369 in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-9. Call 1-800-2-2-470 in Wyoming or visit www. www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

I am joined as I am every episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how you doing, brother? I'm living the life right now, Simon. We got a game tonight that we've already talked about, the Thursday night game. We set on Tuesday, bet it right away. Bet the Seahawks three and a half.

Since then, we've officially gotten news. Debo Samuel out. Kenneth Walker playing. Bounce back spot for Gino. Brock Purdy, first game on the road as a starter, short week. We like the circumstances. We do. But in this episode,

we got to settle on our big balls bed of the week. We got to get closer to nailing our final five. No more buys in the contest. We're five games out. We're in 98th place out of 4,000. We've lost a couple games the past few weeks in the standings because the guy went 25 and O who's ahead of us. And we got to do sharp calls. So let's get to it, my friend.

Sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, a busy week with the calls. to no surprise. I had a couple of calls about not just this week,

but last week about that group that had bit the Browns and other guys were just asking about what went on there. It's just one of those games they missed. But people always ask, how do you handle those kind of things? And I would say that's one of those where they had to probably apologize to their customers because that was a really bad miss where

why are you betting on Deshawn Watson after he didn't play for two years? But handling that, I don't know, everyone's different. To me, if I got a team of analysts, working below me and my lowest graded guy has just been bad. I've been looking for a reason to fire him. Maybe I fire him after that kind of display on a bigger bet, just because that was truly a big swing and a miss. But that's also one of those you just kind of move on to the next week. So

it was funny guys talking this week just about that where, you know, it's rare you wake up and you see a number of move by two points or a point in a half and you hear about that in the night. So this week, I think guys are looking at games that are the same kind of match. of, you know, what is the public thinking that last week that really doesn't matter cater to this week. It's not really worth talking about just because I guess it is for our live listeners, the Seahawks game, but it is interesting that the public is still betting the Seahawks despite Brock Purdy.

He didn't practice all week. Apparently he can't throw. So I know a really smart group that came in on the Seahawks. I told you, Chad, if this was a Sunday game, this probably would be one of my bigger bets, but because it's Thursday, we know how wonky and weird Thursdays. could be, I just couldn't do it. But we've seen the number move from three and a half to three. So hopefully you got that number like we talked about.

Wob, so you talked about it a bunch today on Action Island. So I won't bore people to death on the podcast because it's not useful information of them. But it is one thing to say, Seahawks three and a half, if it's in the contest three and a half, the reason we even spent any time on it the other day is because we might put it in the contest. Right. What else did they call you about?

one that I saved Chad from stepping in was that Washington game. I know a really smart, smart group. They're going to come and have you on Washington. They're hoping the line will get down to four with all the public glove right now on the Giants. They did take the four and a half, but I know they're waiting to get to the four. That's just a great game to me. I feel like we're going to end up all in that game. I spotted that last week where it's just like, that's a big deal.

This team just had a buy week in between. So that's when we're going to break down. But I can tell you a really smart group is going to be in that one. And so there's no way we end up on the Giants. And for either on Washington or I would just pass on that one. They're in line with some of the Colts. They love that Colts pick. A really, really, really, really, really, really smart guy who I highly respect.

Basically told me this Colts team is they're terrible, but they're every better dream of they're going to be in these close games. And they're kind of the team that doesn't know they're terrible. Like in all these games, they're always fighting in. They just haven't given up. Matt Ryan's not giving. We see him every game. He's literally going out there. Yeah, the picks are brutal, but they're a team that just keeps staying in these close

games. So no surprise to me. They loved it. Now, they did love it at four or above. So this is one of these games where, yeah, if it's four and a half, I'll put it in, but at four, three and a half, chat, I don't know if I would put in our contest, but four and a half just love that value because that's where I had this number. I have that four.

Just interesting here that this is a game that this guy loves just because to me, I don't know. There's certain times if I make big bets, I usually want to really trust the quarterbacks or the defense. I guess he's back in the Colts D here against a Vikings team that scores on everybody though. So just an interesting play to me where he's going against this Vikings team at 1 o'clock. But like we said, yeah, we love that number as well. So, not a shocker, he would take that position. And for a game we're split on, Bengals. The pros absolutely love Tampa.

I cannot get behind it. And I think it's just one of these things where these guys are going to keep going against this Bengals team because they've been an absolute cover machine. The public is fat. They are fat off bed in this Bengals team. They've just been covering every week for them. And their pros are trying to catch them.

And they think they're catching them here. They think this is an absolute trap. We already talked about it. I just cannot get behind it. Maybe my model is spot on and I'm overrating this. I feel like this should be six. If this was six, I could start thinking Tampa.

What the hell? Two and a half point difference at three and a half. The money is absolutely pouring on sensing. The number is just not moving. So not sure what to do here, Chad. We joke all the time. The pros, they know, they know. And this is a spot where they know.

But I just don't see it. I think the book's still giving too much value to Brady and this Buccaneers team. And this is a classic professional game. The pros are taking a stance. The books are taking a stance. This will be, I'm just guessing here. I haven't talked to anyone at any sports books yet, but I will before we do our picks on Sunday.

But I'm going to guess this is a 10 to 1, 12 to 1 tickets, money, bets, everything on the Bengals. So this could be a huge trap spot. I just want people to be careful if they are thinking of back in the Sincis side. All right. Still a lot to talk about. I want to dig in a little bit deeper on the Colts because that is a line that has moved from four and a half down to four and then went back up to four and a half.

We wouldn't put it into the contest at four. Unfortunately, for one of us, on Tuesday it moved from four and a half to four. I was worried it was going to go lower. So I bet it at four. am I uncomfortable that I betted it for? No. I just say push. You know, I hate pushes.

I just absolutely hate a push. Like we want that. We want the hook. Yeah, we want that hook. But yeah, I feel like our reasoning for loving it is just true in the sense that this Vikings team just plays close games. And it's not any fault of the offense. The offense we've seen all season, they've moved the ball. Kirk has played pretty well.

Justin Jefferson, he might set the all-time record for most. receiving yards in the season. I know people are like, oh, but it's unfair because they have the extra added game. I mean, how long did they play with 14 games, Chad? I feel like that was a long time. So you kind of have to get over those kind of records and those game records. Justin Jefferson, think about any games. He didn't have catchers or yards where he was open. Kirk just wasn't getting it to him. So I kind of don't fault him for playing an extra game. But in this matchup, the Colts, I just have to trust the Colts will be able to keep this game close. We've seen every team have success against his Vikings defense. We've seen their secondary. They're averaging

giving up over 13010 yards per game passing to quarterbacks. If you go through the list of teams they've played the last couple weeks, it's not like they're a bunch of all pro quarterbacks. There's a lot of bad quarterbacks mix in there. So I'm looking at a matchup of, yeah, it's scary backing Matt Ryan, but we're getting them after a buy week. All right? He's not going to be all banged up. He's going to be, for the most part, feeling as good as he's felt all season. and this offense, they have gotten healthier. We saw Pittman come back before the biweek. We saw Jonathan Taylor finally get some touches and more carries

where he's like terrible all season. He's kind of gotten things a little bit going since he's come back from that injury. So just on the offensive side of the ball, I really do think this cold team is matched up well for this Vikings team. So it is one of those games that I know that no matter what we were going to be on, as soon as I saw the numbers come out,

I just like pinged that where I was like, this is a game we always love to take, especially against a Viking team that's going to be over-inflated just because of their record. But it is surprising, like you just said, the number went down, and it went back up. Didn't really get that. So still like the four and a half,

but it is interesting that it has been bouncing up and down. Well, look, the Minnesota defense is just bad, right? The Lions only had two punts. The week before, I think the Jets, they were in the red zone six times. And they had nearly 500 yards. against the Vikings defense. You look at our luck rankings, which we love,

which is the best measurement of regression for the NFL in the country. And those numbers, when the Delta 4 is 16 or more, meaning the cults are 28th in our luck rankings, they've been one of the unluckiest teams. The Vikings are second. They're one of the luckiest teams. So that's a delta of 26. It's an auto play on the cults, right?

And so here's one more stat. Again, I always mention the Action Network podcast with Chris Raybon and Stucky. It's brilliant. Comes out Thursday mornings. Here's something from that podcast. The cults are actually outgaining their opponents. Minnesota is actually getting out gained by 60 yards per game. The Vikings are just a lucky team.

And I know we talked about it on two. Tuesday. I don't hate the Vikings. I just hate betting on the Vikings. I don't believe in them. And like, that's it. I mean, people are going to come back at you just so I'll say it before they say they'll simply say, that's because the Vikings are usually in a lead position where the Colts have been behind probably in every game, which is a fair argument. But I feel like what you're saying is these teams aren't as far off as the records perceive. They both, like that's what he's talking about, the luck factor. So I do think that does play into it. All right. Colts are Colts are in there. If we can get the four and a half, the cults are in there. Yeah, right. I really do like that number.

Jacksonville, Jaguars. I love how Jacksonville, now they refer to it as Duval. Like, Jacksonville is so nondescript. Nobody cares about Jacksonville. There's no attitude with Jacksonville. But Deval County, now Duval, now we're talking about that's some character. That's a really. That's what people are getting behind. Duval. I don't give a fuck about Duval. I don't give a fuck about Jacksonville. Oh, wow. I do like the Jaguars in this game. As a Florida native, I do care about you, Jacksonville.

Sorry for all that slander there. You didn't see their mascot last week in a Speedo? That was great. Fantastic. It's great. I love it. Yeah, another game where me and Chad can't help. ourselves. What the hell are we supposed to do, people? People got, I got so many message about

this that we just love Jackson when every week we take Jacksonville. That's fair to say. I mean, me and Chad joke, we would literally be in first place if we just faded Jacksonville every week this year, our contest. That is fact, that is literally facts. It's true. But we are going strong with Jacksonville down the stretch because we have Jacksonville plus 750 to win the AFC South and we love it. Even better. I got like 13, 14 to 1. We're taking it in May and June. I'm all in on it, but it's also, if you're one of those people, you have it as big as I do, you obviously eventually need to take a position on Tennessee because those are just amazing odds.

And they have to kind of run the table here. So this is a great spot. It's not that it's the reason I'm mainly taking the bears, but I love look-ahead spots. And I doubt the Eagles are going to overlook the bears. They claim they're saying all the right things. And I think the same thing with Dallas. They're probably not going to overlook the Jaguars. But they are looking ahead that each other face each other the following week.

That's a big deal of the fact that Eagles and Cowboys play each other following week. And the fact that they're both on the road as favorites, that's a big deal. It's like a classic- Are we transitioning to the Bears and Eagles right now? No, I'm just saying like that's what's built into this line, I do believe, that this line would probably be higher if this wasn't such a look-ahead spot for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are looking ahead, right? Same with the Eagles.

I mean, they're literally already chatting about each other two weeks out. I mean, Michael Parsons. Yeah, that was great. Yeah. So looking at this matchup of do I think the Cowboys are going to overlook the Jaguars? Not at all. But how much more does this mean to this Jaguars team? I mean, this is what we were just talking about.

This is kind of it. They have to kind of went out to make the playoffs. And this is a game they need to steal. I mean, the fact that it's still at this point at four, I thought I'd have been down to three by now because I did think this is going to be a big professional and bet play on the simple fact that this Cowboys team has struggled this season with certain teams and certain matchups. But, you know, it is the Jaguars. And that's why it probably is four right, because they have so many disappointing losses this season of they're in these

games and all of a sudden the fourth quarter comes and they just have meltdowns. But everything I've seen or Trevor Lawrence, it seems like he's stepping up to the plate. Like he talked about he can't keep losing like this. He needs to be the leader of this team. And he said the right things after that Ravens game we saw the following week to lay the dud so that's the where you're chat is we're back in a team that just had a massive win on the road against tennessee now coming home are they're going to lay dud that's the fear here so i don't i i do love it but i'm trying to listen to the fans and not get too sucked in like they said they're begging us not to make it one of our five i probably listen to you people but i do love it i feel like we're getting such good value here on jacksonville but i get where

it's going to be one of the five brother oh look here's the thing oh god it's the thing it's It's the value. If this game was three, we wouldn't be having this competition. But how is it four and a half? Look, the Cowboys have injuries on their offensive line. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary. Trevor Lawrence, something has clicked in the second half of the year. And a lot of those losses we had with the Jaguars, they were earlier in the year

where we were buying into Trevor Lawrence thinking that the chemistry with him and Doug Peterson was going to be better than it was. and it's finally starting to get there. And look, the Jags have a good rush defense. I think that helps them against the Cowboys. And they've got a really good offensive line against the pass rush. So it's just too big of a number. That's it.

I get where people are coming from, though. And I am sorry. We just, we love this team. We love these, like these are such good matchups. And this is the public hates them. This is why we're getting value. Simon, as I tell my kids, don't apologize for who you are. We are a Jaguars loving team.

We are a cult loving team. We are going to ask people to do ugly things. We're going to ask them to them in us. And over the long haul, and by the way, long haul, meaning a season, you're going to win. It's true. I mean, I message these people back. I tell them, I'm losing with you. Like, this isn't like, I send them tickets.

It's like, I bet big on the Jaguars. I'm hurting with you. Because I get it. People are like, I hate putting my hard-earned money on the Jaguars team. But you got to trust the process, people, please. Speaking of trusting the process. So it's really interesting to me, this has been a year in which underdogs of more than three have been crushing. Yeah.

And so here's what we've been talking about. Jags plus four and a half, Colts plus four, four and a half. Bears plus nine. Look, the Rams two weeks ago. The Broncos last week. The Bears this week. I want to get your take on this because we know we're going to bet the bears. But this is one of those things that we talk about all the time in that you play the number,

you play the situation, but you also got to think about the teams at this. point in the year. I love the bears here. I'm not walking away from the bears plus nine. But their defense does scare me a little bit. Like the reason we liked the Broncos at plus nine is because we like their defense so much. The reason why we liked the Rams at plus nine is because we thought their defense could

sustain against the, I think it was the Seahawks. So, I mean, they were at it's plus seven and a half, plus eight, whatever it was. The bears do not have, bears are playing a JV defense right now. Yeah, they're awful, but it's the game changer of fields. And I'm not going to lie,

Chad, when I saw that he had illness and wasn't practicing this week. Not ideal. We got a guy who's a vegan, who's got apparently some type of flu or maybe it's a stomach bug. I don't know what he's sick with,

but he's sick. He's missed, I think, two practices now. Not ideal, especially the fact that I've already bet this damn game. I bet the nine and a half,

bet the nine, because I did think this was going to go down to eight, eight and a half, for the next couple days, but you just touched on it, though. It's like, what can we do? This is an inflated line, though. This Eagles team, yes, they are very good.

They are very talented. We see how hard it is to cover big numbers because it's hard to sustain it for an entire game. It's just human nature. If they go up 21-0, you know, you head into half, are you going to come out of the same kind of energy in the second half? Probably not. We've seen this out with this Eagle team this year. They get up big on teams,

and they've let teams back in the second half. and multiple times this year. So I'm with you on the fact that this Eagles team is clearly a juggernaut. We talked in all offseason. This was the best put together team on paper. This was better than the Eagles Super Bowl team. All the questions was, can Jalen Hertz learn to read a defense? Clearly he has.

I mean, this is incredible. He's playing an MVP level. Every reader is right. When he should run it, he runs. When he should pass it, he passes. He takes the deep shots. Bears are probably one of the worst defenses of football. But what we're back in here is the fact that you guys are a great team offensively.

We've seen it every week with Justin Fields. He really does produce, I believe Herbert's back, right? The second number two running back for you guys. I believe he's back off the injury reserve. So that's another weapon this offense is getting back. It's just too big of a number, Chad. That's why it's like I'm with everyone. That's why it's a foxhole bet.

This is terrifying. This is going to be one of the least bet teams of the week. every teaser, every money on, everything is going to be connected to this Eagles team. Are the Eagles really going 16-1? I mean, think of all through all the history of all the teams of just one loss to the season. So there's just tend to be games that trip up teams. And this just feels like a good spot to take against the Eagles team. This is their second road game.

This is before they played Dallas, the following week on Christmas. There's just so many little distractions. I know Jaylon Hart is saying all the right things, and he's laser-focused. But, man, if there's a spot to overlook a team that's coming off, but buy a week. We got, we got to buy this Bears team. That's such a big number. But I'm with you, Chad. There's a couple games this week that that's what's going to be tough on Sunday. It's like, are we going to take all four of these games that make us sicker? We drop one or two out of here. So if the Bears don't make the list, I wouldn't be shocked.

But a nine and a half in contest, it has to be in. That's just a huge number in the contest. Simon, the sicker, the better. Is that our saying? That's our saying. The sicker, the better. If we don't feel gross, if we don't look like the goddamn puke emoji on Sunday, then we're just not doing our jobs. I also do wonder if the eagles are up big in the first half because they do play so well in the first half,

do they pull back a little bit in the second half? And I don't mean they're not trying as hard, but are they more conservative with the offense? Are they not pulling everything out of the playbook to try to build the lead? You know, because they do have the, the Cowboys the next week, they want to be healthy. You can start to take your foot off the gas a little tiny bit.

And that leaves it open for Justin Field to juke and make his moves and, you know, do all the backdoor cover things that we think he can do while the bears still lose the game. I will say this. As a Bears fan, me and my buddies have been texting about this. This is the greatest season ever because we are. all believe in Justin Fields. And for the first time in what feels like a generation, it looks like the Bears have a road map.

The management team feels competent, right? And you can see where the holes need to be plugged. And every week, our expectations aren't to win. Our expectations are, let's have fun watching Justin Fields. Let's pray to the football gods. He stays healthy. And let's move on next week, win or lose. We don't care.

I mean, Bears, you want to lose, though. Like this is a great, absolutely amazing draft to be bad and not need a quarterback. I mean, your front office, I do think they are smart because they made two picks and you guys had nothing last year to players that really look pretty good. Again, it's so early in their careers, but they look good for your defense. Bears, oh, yeah, that's the greatest thing we talk all the time about the draft. It's like it's such hit and miss stuff. where going back, it's a no-brainer.

You can go back and listen to people. We talked all, we talked that ad nauseum in that draft about how we didn't get why Fields wasn't the number two quarterback. And look at this Jets team now. If they had Fields, think of how different their season would be this year, all of that. And then think about that with the 49ers. If they had a weapon, if Shane Anand had a weapon like Justin Fields. So that's, I can't wait until this upcoming draft.

I think there is in like three or four quarterbacks. That's kind of same thing. It's all in there. but that's why the bears have to be feeling so good where you have never-ending amount of money in this upcoming off-season to get an offensive line and then you should have enough draft picks

to try to fill in going ahead to all the pieces you're missing on defense. So I'm right there with the Bears fans. This is like, this probably to me would be the most exciting I'd feel about this team since that season with Mitch, the double doink season where like that was a great season for the Bears. Because Mitch, you guys all believed.

I believe too. I mean, I was like, okay, Mitch is going to be the bear's quarterback now. We saw how quickly that can change. I just don't see that same fate with a field tier. Bill Barnwell, who we've had on the podcast before and is a brilliant columnist at ESPN, has a great story. It's on the front page of ESPN right now. Looking at, and it's germane to what you said about the draft,

looking at the moves, the picks, the Denver traded to Seattle for Russell Wilson, that the Rams traded to Detroit from Matthew Staff. effort and that New Orleans traded a Philly for like a variety of moves. They end up getting Chris Olive, right? Yeah. So now we're talking about Seattle, Detroit, and Philly all having really high first round picks, the Eagles. Like, how is the goat, dude.

It's crazy. Five years after one of the Super Bowl, he's back to make him. And then they have all these picks to make, like to get people on the edge or to like it's going to be insane. And same with the lions. Like the lions can plug some really important holes. Oh yeah. There's options for Jared Gough over the next couple of years.

Like it's insane. I try not to beat people down with like my Eagles fandom. But like, yeah, I think every Eagles fan right now is just like, holy shit. Is this really our lives right now? Like this team is stacked very young and there's just tons of draft capital coming forward. Could be a great four or five year. run for the Eagles. Yeah, how he's, he's playing chess, everyone else is playing checkers. All right. We talked with Bears. We talked Colts. We talked Jags. I got one wild card for you real

quick. All right. Well, we haven't done a big balls yet. And let me remind people, you mentioned foxhole. Bears plus nine is our foxhole. Simon says, Jags plus four and a half. The exact decision, Colts plus four. If you have a wild card, is it our big balls? Yeah, you want the big balls? Well, is it the same as the wild card? I want the wild card first. No, my wild card, I just wanted to hear what your view was of this Chiefs Houston game. Pass.

Normally, out of play. Here's why. All week, I've been waiting for this line to go higher. I'm saying what if it was 13 and a half in contest? Would you take Chiefs? That's interesting. Think about it over the weekend because literally Houston, they have no, no one left. Well, that's what I mean.

They have all these injuries. It would be an auto player in the Texans, right? Yeah, if it wasn't for every injury. Right, but they don't have, like, cooks might not be playing. Damien Pierce isn't playing. Like. Their top two corners aren't playing. Yeah.

So it's very possible. And by the way, let me just say this. All right. Let's flip it, right? Our worldview is always take the dogs. And so for us, a big ball is better than we. is Titans plus three or Raiders plus one. It's actually a favorite.

But what if our, like a couple weeks ago, I made us take the Bengals as a big balls better the week as a favorite. Yeah. What if, what if the Chiefs as two touchdown favorites was our big balls better the week? I don't got the balls to do it. I'd play a contest. Yeah, I don't, honestly. Dude, your face, the way you just, your face just looked.

Yeah. It might as well have been our big balls better the week. No, because my other one, I want to give our, I got another one that's, I feel like more confident. I just, I just think if it's 13 to half, that's really hard to pass on that because I could see it closing at 15, 16 by kickoff. Yeah, I'm not uncomfortable with playing the Chiefs as a favorite in the spot. All right. Love it. But yeah, you're ready for the big balls?

I wish I was mainly enough to take Tampa. I do people. I really do. I just, I just cannot do it. Cannot do it. Big ball is better the week. going against my guy Chad, Washington football team at home. Why would you do that to me?

No, no, no, no, no. Yeah. No. Look, I haven't bet the Giants yet. Everyone's saying the same thing. This game played in a tie. Why is this in the game not three? Why is this game not three and a half?

Once you hear every Joe Schmoe, even the guy in the 7-Eleven's talking about it because I live near a lot of Giants fans, I was like, holy shit. This is going to be a monster for the book, isn't it? So this got to be the big balls But you don't want to do it? No, hold on. What do you mean the guy of 7-Eleven is talking about?

Like when you walked into 7-Eleven, he started talking about it? Yeah, I had my Eagles hoodie on. Oh. He's like, hey, he's like, you're an Eagles fan? I was like, no, I just stole the hoodie. You're such a... Fun jersey combo.

But yeah, it's just a classic Giants fan trying to get into my skin. He's like, you're scared, right? If they make the playoffs, it's like, you guys ain't making the playoffs, but... And then he started going on about this line. I was like, holy,

shit. Maybe I'm overthinking it here, but I do, I'll tell you what. I'll tell you what. I just feel like every one of their grandmas will be taking this four and a half. They think they're getting a gift here. That is the spirit of the big balls bed of the week. Is to do the exact opposite. And all anyone is talking about is the Giants plus four and a half. I listen to Raybon and Stucky this morning. Stucky loves the Giants. I gave you all the reasons. I loved the Giants. I went on. I went on more ways to win. It's a show on Fandual TV.

All the experts there. Love the giant. Love the giant. Let's go. Keep going. Love the Giants. Let's go. Danny Dimes on the road.

Like they played to a tie. The Giants were up by seven late. They had a game winning field goal. They missed. Let's go, Jeff. This is all on you. All right. I love it.

Now, you know, I love these home favorites and the public loves these road dogs. So this has been very profitable me all season. I'm going to keep riding this trend. It's setting up nicely, especially Chad just saying that. It feels like the public and a lot of these, like, guys who bet big money are all going to be on this giant side. I don't see us putting this in the contest for sure. It's going to be in there. I'm not going to be the nice guy on Sunday.

I'm forcing one in. I'm going to force this one in. I just know a really smart group that's going to comment on them. Or maybe they already have, but there's just a lot of things I point to this. a great number. Got the pros on it. Got a good number. Every week there's a game that we're convinced we're on the right side of with like an

ugly dog and oftentimes it doesn't work, right? And so is this the game this week? What are you talking about? We're like 70% for the season. No, no. But every week there is a game that maybe we don't put it in the contest, but that we love. Oh, yeah, yeah. And that is like, it makes total sense to bet it.

And then the game happens. You're like, what the fuck happened there? Right? Who knows? This could be the game. I happen to think you're wrong, but we're not going to do a bet off because... Yeah, say it's a bet off then. I don't want it to be a bet off because...

You're already 0.14. You might as well try to end the year 0.05. Don't fucking bait me. No, you're going to cheer for this one because we're probably going to have this one in there. Right. Like, I'm not, I'm not... I'm not... doing that because I'm not going to bet on the game that I'm then secretly hoping.

The upside, honestly, the upside of winning in the contest is greater than any amount I will bet on this game. I wish you felt that way when we put Tennessee over the Eagles in. That was one of them. That was one of those picks, right? That I'm talking about. I feel like I got good calls on it. And it just feels like what you just talked about. It just feels like the public will be on it as well with the Giants.

So one of those spots. Well, let's look right now. Let me tell you right now. The, where is the public on this game? Oh, Jesus. I'm telling you, they're going to be giants. Dude. This guy is the public.

He's the work at 7-Eleven. 73% of the ticket, 91% of the money. Where is it? Who's it on? The Giants. Oh, Jesus. Yeah. Chad.

Chad. But here's what's interesting to prove your point. I'm going to be a. prime time game. That's a Sunday night game. Hold on. I'm going to be a mensch. I'm going to prove your point. 91% of the money is on the Giants. The line hasn't moved all week. What does that tell you? Yeah. Right? For those. I was going to touch four, but I told you this group is literally, they're waiting. As soon as it touch four is that they're hitting it. So it tells you that the wise guys are going to like the Washington commanders. Fine, Simon, you did what you're supposed to do. You did your job.

You showed me the light. Thank you. You took me from journalist who knows this to professional level insight, okay? Peek behind the curtains. Peek behind the curtain. You did it. Congratulations.

All right, so that's our big balls. And now, God only knows, I'll be heavier on Washington than I will in any game this weekend. And it'll probably end up in the contest. Start the NFL week off right with NFL same game. game parlay insurance from Fanduel, America's number one sportsbook. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandual or already have an account. You'll get free bets back if your four plus leg

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And whether you're shopping for friends, family, or yourself, know that every order is backed by their unconditional money-back guarantee minimum order may be required. Let's get back to the show. two other games. Tennessee, still plus three against Los Angeles Chargers, feeling a little queasy about it.

Yeah, we want to be stepping in it. Yeah, and the Raiders, I still like them at home. Yeah, obviously, one and a half,

we were ecstatic. We were hoping it was going to keep going up to two. The pros came in. That was just too big of a number. Yeah, Raiders are the right side in that one.

So we might, we might, I might have enough talking chat into it. He might end up talking me into it. The Patriots, just clearly aren't the team or used to. They've only been beating up on bad, backup quarterbacks. The record looks way better than it should be.

They've been very fortunate in the season. It should be a good game for this Vegas team. This is exactly when Vegas disappoints us. So that's a tough one. Tennessee, I don't know, I was hoping for sure. I was hoping for more pro calls on it. I hope when the pros were going to love that one with us. Split.

It's all split. They think the books are undervaluing. A healthy team now in this Chargers, team, right? They got Mike Williams back. Yeah, they're just healthy. And the fact that Herbert, you can watch it on film, he took that shot, what was it, week two or three at the ribs for the chiefs, whenever he hurt his ribs. He didn't look good for about four weeks there. And every week since then, he's progressively looked better. Now you look up and he's like top five in passing and pretty much every category. Herbert's just an animal. So, oh, man, I get where they're coming from.

The Tennessee's defense struggles against big body receivers. Look at who they just lost to. It started with the Bengals. They went down there in Tennessee. They beat them. Then they lost to the Eagles, big body receivers. Then they just lost to Jacksonville, where Zay Jones had an incredible game against them. Jay Jones is a big body receiver.

So the matchup, yeah, favors the Chargers team. But me and Chad, I feel like it's been good to us taking Tennessee as a dog bigger than three. and it's been good to us to fade the chargers as a favorite bigger than three. So it won't end up, I guess, in our five. I feel like it just on my principle. I just have to blindly take Tennessee here. It feels like they are reeling, right?

They're going through injuries, everything like that. But if Berks is back, the wide receiver, if they have more than two healthy receivers, I'll probably end up on Tennessee. If not, I'll just avoid this game most likely because it is split. I know a really smart group that is pounding the charges at two and a half. They think they're getting great value.

We've seen this number. It's been three and it really hasn't moved. So definitely an interesting game this week. I forgot. I lied. There's one more game I want to talk about. Talked a little bit about it the other day. We didn't settle on anything. Ravens plus three right now against the Browns. But it's like, what are we doing? We're going back to the third string quarterback for the Ravens? I know we're supposed to. Like Ravens' defense versus a broken Watson. And if you even go through the Nick Chubbs numbers, he's been suffering since Watson's come back.

So, I mean, I get it. I get why the pros are betting the Ravens. I'll probably end up on them too. But I don't so know if I can make it my five, chat. It's like, fuck, man. The third stringer. I know we got away with the last week with Brock Purdy, but that was like, we're backing that amazing system and all that was all offensive weapons on the 49ers. They do not have that on this Ravens team.

Like, I know Dobbins was able to move the ball last week against Pittsburgh, but. I don't know, Mark Andrews just hasn't looked himself for weeks now, and they don't really have a number one receiver. And now we have a third string quarterback. So I get what you're saying. Like on principle, I should love the plus three. But man, there's just, I'm thinking I'm getting sucked in on Chad's August darling and this Carolina team to win this division.

So I don't know. I think I'm jicking the juju, the juice. I see the Ravens dropping a game here. And this feels like a good number. So three, I'm just, I'm stuck. I wouldn't pick either side in it, honestly. Mike White, we talked a lot about the Jets and the Lions. We love the Lions generally.

Jets with the superior defense, Mike White now playing outside, Jared Gough, Kryptonite. Everything here is split evenly. Tickets, money, everything, no consensus. I mean, we know our side, though. Like, we have to take the Jets. We have to take the Jets. The defense, outdoors, and against golf. Love it, though, because this to me is why I love December football.

This is a true playoff game. Both these teams, this is a playoff game. For both these teams to make the playoffs, they need to win this game. So I love it. I love the lines, like you said, the line just sitting there to pick all week. Love it. Love everything about this game. One of those where we're not really getting much value of either side,

so maybe we won't have it as one of our five. But I'll be on the Jets, and I cannot wait to watch this game. I love Dan Campbell. much. I'm so glad that he's going to be coaching this team next year, and I think he will be. All right. Our foxhole bears plus nine, our Sun Seggs, Jacks, plus four and a half, our ED, exact decision, Colts plus four, our big balls, bed of the week, Washington minus four and a half. We are we going to talk about, are we put in Seattle in or not? Because, let me say this, we like the Colts, we like the Bears, we like the Bears, we like

the Jags. We like Washington. We're thinking about the Chiefs. Like... Thinking about Vegas? We're thinking about Vegas. I don't know, man. I know.

That's when we'll talk more after we do the Island show. But as we sit here right now, I fucking love the Seahawks. Like, Brock Purdy, not throwing the ball all week. Like, that's a big deal. We might be getting a fourth stringer tonight. I think my feeling is. that if this were a game on Sunday, we wouldn't be hesitating.

No, we'd be in our top five. No, this would be an easy pick. It's always scary to us to do it on a Thursday. On Thursday, because I hit that 0-1-1 headed into Sunday. But I'm trying to convince myself it's all good, Chad, because we can either, we can do a pick on Saturday anyway. So I'm trying to pin zone it. So it's like we should end up on this game. You know what?

I think we got to do it. All right. Let's do it. We're going to put it in. Is it three and a half? Yeah. Yeah, I'll be three and a half, definitely. Okay, so people listen and know that we're putting Seattle in.

I'll put it in the app under the Phase 5. So you'll see that we put that pick in. What is our Scoot Roulette this week, Simon? Oh, my Scrolet, geez. Like you just said, there's so many games I love. Shit, you usually have a written down. I got to do it then, I guess. I'm like, I'll go Washington.

I knew you were going to do that. I have to. You have to. Just scroll through the list here. It's like who am I sticking claim on this week? It's got to be the commies. You know what I'm going to do then? I'm going to do Jags 4.5.

Even though it's yours, Simon says, because it was going to be my exact decision, but you pulled it first. So I'm doing Jags plus 4.5. Our money line, round robin. I would do Jags. This has been anyone. listening. I've, I've way lowered my bets every week. We've just been, not us particularly,

but just football in general, the dogs have not been winning outright. They've been covering, but our win weight went way down for underdogs outright. So just don't be, don't be going as crazy as we were earlier in the year on these money line around Robbins. Jags. Colts. Coults. Raiders. Yeah, okay. That's fair. I mean, what are you going to do? You know, I could put the bears in there. No. Let's go with Tennessee.

And we got to go, we got to go balls in this last one, this big one. Got to go with Miami. Interesting. It's got to get weird with it. Because we didn't even talk about Miami as a game. Well, it's left the seven and a half, and that's what I want. I want the seven and a half. I don't want the seven.

So that's one of those. We just wouldn't have in at that number. And we already know the deal. Like this is, this is, you go. We're taking Miami outdoors, a team that struggled in the elements, not ideal. So that's why I just didn't think it would be one of our five because there's so many unknowns that don't really help. Not even close. Right.

In fact, I would, I'd almost be more comfortable making our big balls, Buffalo than Washington. But whatever. You love Washington. That's everything. Bears plus nine is Foxall. Simon says, Jacks plus four and a half. Exec decision, Colts plus four, big balls. Washington minus four and a half.

Scoot roulette. Simon, Washington minus four and a half. Chad is on the Jacks plus four and a half for a scute roulette. Moneyline, round robin one more time. Jacks, Colts, Raiders, Titans, Miami. Do expect us to be putting in Seattle plus three and a half in the contest. I will put that in the Action Network app. Follow the Faves 5.

All right. Simon, we've done it all, my brother. I love it. We have done it all. This has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network for my BFF Simon Hunter, for our producer extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. Download us from Spotify from Apple Podcasts wherever you get your podcasts.

Don't forget, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. More importantly, listen all the way through people. We know that helps juice the Apple podcast rankings. We like staying in the Fat 200. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you.

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