The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 16

Episode Date: December 23, 2022

The NFL goes walking in a winter wonderland this weekend, with wind and freezing temperature leading to the lowest totals seen across the slate in over a decade. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter brave the frosty air, and look to avoid being Jingle Bell squares as they climb their way into the money in their pick 'em contest. Together they make their Big Balls Pick of the Week, underdog moneyline round robin, hear a round of Sharp Calls, and lots more. #Volume #ColinCowherd #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It might be cold, but the sports calendar is heating up and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduel. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. And Fanduel is now live in Maryland. So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to make every moment more this football season.

Must be 21 or older. And in select states, call 1-800 gambler. or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-800 next step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-88-78-9-7777. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas.

Call 1-877-750-70 stop in Louisiana. 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467, 369 in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-9. Call 1-800-2-2-470 in Wyoming or visit www. www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Welcome to our friends listening live on AMP right now.

I am joined as I am for every episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing, brother? Isn't it nice to know two days a week? Someone is going to introduce you as if you are a championship, fighter walking into the ring.

Yeah, but obviously I wish it was the guy. Who's the famous guy that does? Like a buffer? Yeah. I mean, that would really make it. But you're not a bad sub in chat. Well, I appreciate that. Listen, we did the show on Tuesday.

We broke it down. We started to indicate our liens. We had a foxhole bet, Pat's plus three and a half. Hearing a lot of conversation about wise guys liking that this week. Simon says was Eagles plus five and a half. Very interesting conversation. on that this week.

Exec decision was Colts plus four. Unfortunately, that is now Colts plus five. That's pretty frustrating. We're going to talk about that. We still owe everyone one of big balls. We'll get into Scoot Roulette, Money Round Round Robin Parley. Simon, before we do all that, I got to remind people that on Tuesday,

if you listen on this Tuesday, we will be going live at 10 a.m. Eastern. That's December 27th, Tuesday, 10 a.m. Eastern. reminder we will put the picks in the app follow phase five we will do this on Saturday we have convinced me Saturday morning 11 a.m. Eastern after that Simon and I will chat will put in our final five Saturday morning for the contest follow the phase five in the action network app. Before we get to anything we got to get to sharp calls. Hello who's there I'm talking ring ring,

telephone rang somebody said baby what you do it usually some weeks i'll get tons of calls um because there's just be a lot of guys want to hear what other groups are on and vice versa and guys want to get bets down that's mainly what my deal is now is i'm getting guys bets down that's how i'm able to hear what so many smart guys are doing um because they want to get money down here in jersey i'm the guy to call a chat so this week it maybe it's maybe it is part of um we're so late in this season season here. And a lot of guys are kind of, you know, they've already, they've already won big. They're not really going to push their luck. And they got playoffs right around the corner. And I think

most people realize that even these last couple weeks, we've seen the numbers. Two weeks ago, the most bet money was on Denver. We saw last week the most bet money on the Bears. If that was week one or two, me and Chad would go the other way, blindly almost, because we know that's public money. At this point of the year, it's just all pros. Like, it really is, even when I go to the sports books now. It's just empty. It really is. It's just different than it is in week six, seven, those early weeks. Seems like the public's kind of getting beat up here. So this week, talking to guys, not that we're so much split, but like again, we can go, we can go off the top a game that there's guys on both sides. Guys love the Cowboys. And I don't fault them for that,

but I feel like they love the Cowboys for the same reason we were going to love them. Like if Hurts was healthy and this game was either a pick. or minus one for DAC at home against the Eagles, the 13 and 1 Eagles, we would have been all over the Cowboys. And that's like I keep saying these guys. Yes, I agree with your idea and your sentiment that are the Eagles that much better than the Cowboys? Not really honestly.

Like they're pretty close, especially on paper. The biggest difference is the quarterback position. I just think Hertz is better than Dak, especially this year right now. So the Minchu movement makes sense. We're seeing now the lines up to six. That makes sense. So the pros that hit me up. saying, yeah, I'm taking Cowboys now at four and a half because I do think it's going to be

Minshu. I do think the line is going to go back up. They nailed it. And I was the other way where I thought four and a half was already factoring Minchu was going to be in. So definitely again, I mean, you're going to have to talk about where it's interesting that it's split down the middle. I know a bunch of pros like me that they already hit Dallas at a pick and minus one.

And then they played the Eagles at plus six at five and a half and at five. When I went to four and a half, I just waited because I was like, all right, I'll wait and see what the minstue knew is. The Nazi game back to six. So that's definitely one we need to talk about. Next big one, no surprise. Everyone saw the line movement. We talked about it last week.

I mean, on Tuesday, Green Bay. The pros love Green Bay. They've hit that number down to three and a half. Now it's back up to four. That's just a good number. So I still think we'll talk about that. A four, four and a half. I feel like Green Bay is a no brain or a three and a half.

I guess I could pause and maybe start thinking the other way. But I still think if we could get the four, four and a half, Green Bay is a smart side. and then the Patriots. Like the pros, the funny thing is talking to these guys who've just been losing on the Bengals. And me and chat, we've been avoided, honestly. Like, I've had maybe during this streak,

I bet you I've probably been on the Bengals five times. I've been against them once. So it took the L of that one time. But for the most part, it's been really good to me. These other guys have been getting smacked around by Joe Burrow. They fucking hate Joe Burrow now, which is funny because last year, that was their guy. They kept betting him as a dog.

He kept covering. all last year. And this year it's really flipped, right? The public all over him. The guy went to the Super Bowl last year. He's kind of the darling of the NFL. This 11-1 runs insane. So I love it, Chad, at three and a half, but at three, that makes you pause. I mean, I feel like anyone that's going to make you pause at three, where it's like, why isn't this still three and a half? Because the public has done nothing but bet this all week. So no surprise, the pros were all over that one. They loved that three and a half. Still like it at three, but I think three and a half was really the key number for a lot of these guys where that was such a big deal

to them getting that hook because Joe wins games he wins by three usually like this what these last four weeks he's been kind of dominating blown teams out historically we've seen them play close games so not not surprising that a lot of pros are on that one but more so surprising that I didn't think people I thought they'd be scared off because they like again they're all over the bucks I just some really smart groups all over the bucks last week and they got slaughtered like they really did get slaughtered so interesting interesting calls this week on, you know, a couple sides we like, and the biggest discreetment's going to be that Cowboys Eagles game.

I just think that's going to be normal. When there's a backup quarterback coming in, it's going to be people sticking their sides on both sides, saying this guy's overvalued or this guy's undervalued. And right now, a lot of pros, they just have such respect for Hertz. They don't think he's getting enough respect on the line. They think it should be seven. They say you're still getting good value at six if you're taking Dallas.

All right, a lot to unpack. Before we got on the air, Matt Mitchell mentioned, he was curious to see if we were getting called. about the Cowboys and the Eagle, because I do think that's a game where there is just no consensus. Before we do that, let me ask you a question, because you brought up a really good point.

At the end of the year, it's a lot of pros betting, and you know that the money coming in is professionals. And so I was on the phone this morning with Logan Swame, who oversees content for the volume, Colin Cowherd's podcast network, Logan's a brilliant guy. Logan is one of the guys who created this sensibility and was the producer for Good Morning Football on the NFL network for a long time when sort of it was at Zenith. So that's who we have to blame.

Yeah, no. And so we were talking about betting. And he was asking me like, am I betting more at the end of the year? And I was like, yeah, my bankroll, like my unit. has increased sort of as the year has gone on as we make more money. Right. As we continue to do well. And also because I just have so much more confidence in these final games. Like the board just feels clearer to me. And it's like the other way for the other people because they're like, they've just been so burned, right?

The public has just been so burned when they have perceptions coming to the year. And those perceptions don't work. They have a hard time adjusting to it. Which is always fun. People listen to our clips from the summer and they, you know, either talk shit or support us and they'll just be like, you guys really did nail that Jags pick just about how the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence could take that next step, yada, yada, yada, and it's, that's kind of the way I view the season where I'll come in with perceived notions, but we keep

adjusting by like week four or five, that's when you really guys are trusting the math. Like so Chad said, I honestly let a lot of money sit on the table this year because we were so good. I just kept waiting for a disaster week. And by week 11, it just wasn't coming. I was like, all right, forget it. Like, I got to get back to my ways of just betting big amount of money because it's just, it's just a good year. And it's been that way all year. So, yeah, I think the interesting part is it's Christmas time.

Like, these are normal people living normal lives. They got to buy presents. We all know it is. Like, everyone's a little tighter. So the money, most of the money bet right now is going to be pro money. It's going to be pro money and millionaires who are going to be throwing the money around. It's not really going to be the $5, $10 parlay guy at the counter like it usually is. So that's definitely something you notice where like every weekend, I mean, it's been two straight weeks for me.

I picked the team of the most bad money that usually would scare me off, but it doesn't at this point of the year because I know that's pro money, especially when it's a huge dog. So like you just said, it's the public will come back in and the playoffs. But for right now, it's mostly pros and the people that were smart managing their bankroll to this point, which obviously should be hopefully fans of the show. But fans of other shows, they're probably broke at this point because it is, it's hard to make money. Well, as you said when we were coming in the air, the most bet money right now on the board, a game that we loved on Tuesday that we still love today, Chicago Bears, 90% of the money. The line has moved from nine and a half down to eight on that game. The other game right now with the most bet money, which we barely talked about, I'm going to skip the Eagles for a second. and I'm going to skip the Packers, which also has 90% of the money.

The Broncos, 88% of the money. The New Orleans Saints, 80% of the money as three-point dogs against Cleveland. And those are all road teams on. That's my issue with all that, where it's like, when it's a home team, I don't mind it as much. Denver, that was a big home dog. The Bears last week were a big home dog. again this week, Bears were a big home dog. I mean, you both loved it because not only because of the weather,

but we're like, this is a nice match for this Bears team that they want to run the ball. It's really the only struggle that the bills have had this year is against the run. So not shocking at all that numbers come down, especially when you know how cold it's going to be. Yeah. As great as the weapons are for the bills, that's a huge difference throwing in 15, 20-mile-per-hour wins and the windshield is minus six. Like, that's really hard to catch balls that are just literally bricks.

and you have one of the strongest arms in the league throwing it at you. That's just a tough spot to be in for them. But I would say it scares me a little bit with Green Bay, Chad. I'm not going to lie to you. The fact that you just said that because they're a road dog, and I know a really smart group that likes Miami, and it's a simple thing we talk about where Miami is a different team on the road than at home. We've seen at home, they've blown out and dominated bad teams.

Like they dominated Houston, they dominated Cleveland, dominated Patriots early in the year. I mean, they just played different at home. this Miami team, but I don't know, man. That Green Bay number just feels like a smart number. So that's what we need to talk more about. I don't know. Okay, so let's get into it.

We'll talk about Cowboys and Eagles in a second. That's a highlight game that we got to dig in. Yeah. I think in the middle of the year, there were a bunch of times where you and I got caught on what turned out to be public dogs and happen a lot with Jacksonville. And I think if we were, you know, we like to self-scout. I think it's a really important process for anything you do in life, right?

Is to sort of understand where you've been mistakes, you made mistakes, and then try to improve, especially important in betting. I think we made a lot of mistakes with the Jaguars. I think we got caught in the lines a couple times. And if we were to look back, we would say the Packers are, in that then diagram of road underdogs getting a lot of money that in the middle of the year scared us. But I don't think that's the case this year. And we could have said this week, we could have said the same about the Colts the other day. I think the Jags, even though they

were at home against the Cowboys, were similar. We're like, wait a second, there's a consensus building here that should make us nervous. I'm not nervous about the Packers. I think it's a really good matchup. The more I look at it, you know, the more it feels like they're on the right side. I think some of the money is reflective of the line opened at five and a half. I got it at five and a half on Tuesday. You know, so it got down to three and a half. I think the Packers are ascended. I think their offense is better than it's been at any point in a year. I think their defense is better than it's been at any point in a year. And I think the dolphins have been exposed a little bit.

Careful now, though. I don't know. You're giving a lot of love the green bag. Also, look, I'm giving them a lot of love in comparison to the dolphins. Also, it's not going to, early in the year, when some of these meltdowns happened, they were almost literal meltdowns.

It was 100 degrees on the field, and teams are visiting sidelines are in the sun. It's supposed to be cold in Miami, like relatively. So I'm not worried about that circumstance. And the true fear for me is not that they're a sexy dog, but kind of. Like my favorite bets we give chat on the show are the ones that are never ending people

being like, that's gross. I can't get behind her. I hate that. Like the Colts last week was perfect. I mean, I put it on Twitter that morning. We were going to take it in a contest and was never any rolling bets of like,

I literally cannot do it. They're terrible. Like there's no reason in a back of me when it's just like simply like you just say all the time where it's gross. it's disgusting. If you can't watch it, don't watch, just play the number. And that's mainly what we're doing here. So the Patriots one is that this week. The amount of people I reached out were just like, I can't get on board with it. As soon as it dropped the three, all then were just like, damn, I wish I got the three and a half. And that's, that's kind

of what we're doing here. We miss on that Colts one. It's not our fault. We didn't know Nick Foles, who hasn't practiced with the starters all season was going to step in. So that's one of those shot where it's like, I get, I don't know which we want to talk about the Colts one, but it's like, I already bet it. I took the five. again because I don't see it that much of a downgrade of Nick Foles. That's a big deal. A guy is not practice all the season. I stepping in to be a starter in week 16.

Man, it's a tough week with that where it's like, same with the Eagles. Like I thought we were getting a good number of five and a half. I was dead wrong. So there are weeks like that where we get caught. This Miami one, we definitely didn't. We got the four and a half. We got the four. Went down a three and a half.

I was feeling pretty good. Made sense why I went back up to four, though, because I had a bunch of pros that were like, Well, Miami at home, Miami's wide receivers against that Green Bay defense, that's another advantage to this Miami side. Like, I get where they're coming from. Aaron Rogers in Florida, historically, not good for him. He's not performed well in Florida. I get that angle of these guys are saying.

But like Chad just said, I don't know. Even with all the money, I'm scared about it a little bit, but I just feel like we're getting a good number with Green Bay. If it's four or four and a half in the contest, I have to play it. Three and a half, maybe I can get talked off a bit. at that key number of four and a half in a game that I see being at one possession game, two teams that aren't that different. Like Chad just said,

Green Bay had a terrible slump middle of the season. Miami Dolphins didn't. They really ascended in the middle of the season. Their slump has come these last couple weeks. So that's the fear here is, is Miami going to try to flip it or are they going to turn around here at the end of the season or is Green Bay who have been to the playoffs these last couple years?

We know we're getting from low floor. We know we're getting from Rogers. Are they going to be able to figure out this rookie coach where it seems like the league has figured it out. Like that middle of the field is a real thing. Like them taking that away. The Bills game, I know it kind of threw things off because that was such a winnable game for Miami. That was about them in the run.

That was like something they really hadn't been doing. That Miami thing where they figured out the run against the bills. Jeff, they figured that out. That's a huge issue for Green Bay. They cannot stop the run. So another thing to keep eye on where not comfortable with three and a half, but a four, four and a half, way more comfortable with Green Bay. And that's fine, by the way.

Like, that could be the band that we're talking about, three and a half to five and a half. And if it gets to three and a half, we like Miami. If it's in the four to five range, we like the Packers. That's what we're talking about half point increments here. That's how you make your money is on half point increments. People don't get that like the difference isn't, well, I only like it at three and a half and I only like it at five and a half. you got to be comfortable with the half points. Same thing with the Patriots and the Bengals.

And we can talk a little bit more about that one. Like it went down from three and a half. Why did everybody like the Patriots at three and a half as a wise guy? I could tell you because a lot of guys backed the Bucks last week. We didn't, but a lot of guys did. And if you look at the paper for that game, the Bucks were better offensively. out gained them and forget about the whole numbers or the gross yardage because the box in the

second half were trying to rally. They beat them on yards per play. Like the difference in that game was the turnovers. And that's an outlier. You can't depend on that. And also we've liked the box during this run, not so much because of Joe Burrow. Because DJ Reader was back and that defensive line was playing so much better. he had a huge impact on that game.

Trey Hedrickson, injured, may or may not play if he does. He'll be playing with a club in his hand. Yeah. Sam Hubbard, injured and out. Like that defensive line was becoming a real foundation for the Bengals. So I'm still comfortable with the paths at three and a half. Yeah.

And another classic spot chat of, it's only going to be pro as bet in the Patriots or fans of their show. It's no one. The public, like we joke every week, the public has gotten so fat. the Bengals, they're just not going to turn their back on them at this point. Three, what a gift. Like, they was going to go wake up Sunday morning.

They're going to be ecstatic. They're going to have all that money in their accounts up from the week before. They're going to be like, well, here are the Bengals again. Another easy number. Give me three against a Patriots team that, I mean, let's face it. They've looked embarrassing in certain games. I mean, to lose that game, I did think we were going to get a nice bump. I thought this would be maybe four.

The fact is that three, my only issue is it's the same thing with Tennessee and the chargers last week. Me and Chad talked about taking Tennessee. We love Tennessee. We thought that was a great number at three, three and a half. It was two and a half in the contest. We avoided it. What happened? The game landed on three. So that's the same thing here where I love the Patriots at three, three and a half, mainly three and a half. It's two and a half. There's no, play there. Because I make this number three, my values shifted to the bangles, but I just feel like this is a game they're going to drop. Like, it's Joe, I mean, we came into the year. I put Joe as my number three guy I wanted on my list of if I needed a guy who just, you know,

needed a guy in a moment behind Josh Allen and Mahomes, who did I want? And it was him just in the fact that he is Joe Cool, man. Like they were down 17 nothing, didn't miss a beat against that Bucks team, never got flustered, kept trust in the process. Like you just said, didn't have a good game, did not have a good game, not have a good game, but they capitalize on all those opportunities. I mean, they get the ball in the red zone. They used to not, you know, they used to not, they used to kick field goals.

scoring touchdowns, man, are they doing for a letdown game? Like 11-01 ATS on a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. That just doesn't happen. The books are smarter than that. So to me, you're getting a good number and in a spot of them having a letdown spot. So if you could still get the three and a half, of course, you have to grab that right now. If you have the three, you can afford to wait. I honestly would wait because I do know the public, they will be coming in on the Bengals.

Peak Bengals right now. It really is. It doesn't get higher than this. Like, it's like, we rode the wave. It's one of those teams that we just nailed. Like, we totally sensed when they were about to start climbing. And now it does feel like the time to get off. I don't want to talk about the Eagles Cowboys.

Unlike last week, where last week I thought that number should have been six with the bucks. That's why I stayed away. This week I made it literally three. So I was like, okay, three and a half, perfect number. Take the Patriots. It's just funny where I don't feel an easy. taking Sinti at two and a half, where I shouldn't.

Like, that should just be playing both sides. But just something about this game, I just don't trust for Sinci. Before we get to the Cowboys and the Eagles, I do want to mention. The tease of all teases. Right, exactly. Santa Barkley is back, and this year he's giving new fan to a customer is exactly what you asked for. Unwrap the gift of a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500 back and free bets.

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First online, real money wager only. Refund issued is not withdrawalable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, 1,800 next step or text, next step to 533342 in Arizona.

1-888-7-9-7-7 or visit c-c-pg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-8009 with it in Indiana, KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-770 stop in Louisiana, 1-8-8-Hope-N-Y or text, Hope N-Y in New York. Tennessee Red Line is 1-800-9-8-9-9-8-9-8-1-8-2-4-7-800 in Wyoming or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's talk about the Colts for two seconds. It's my executive decision.

When we talked about it earlier in the week, you were like, if you're not going to make it your exact decision, then it's going to be my assignment says, I love the Colts at 4. It doesn't matter to me who's playing quarterback. Yeah, obviously, my biggest issue is the fact that he hasn't been with the first team. Like that, like Brock Purdy, that was a big deal. This kid had first team, not first team, but second team reps all summer because he had Garoppel holding out. And then as soon as Tray Lance went down, he was back in the training camp, back practicing with the team again, Brock Purdy.

Nick Folst had the opposite of that. They literally shunned them. They had him not in the facility all the offseason. Then when they did bring them back, like, yeah, we'll put you on the practice squad and do whatever with you, make our third stringer. What the hell was that kid's name Sam Ellinger, Ellinger? He's behind him. Behind him.

The disrespect. So I love Nick. I know exactly what I'm getting from Nick. He isn't the ultimate gamer. This is the kind of guy you want to have in this game. So yes, I'll be taking the five. Guys, well, I will not be shocked if we get a total egg laid by Nick Foles here. Because it's just a lot to ask of a guy being, you know,

upset this whole season, not working out with these guys. But this is like such a great matchup for him to come into where this charge of defense cannot not stop the run. And they have a bunch of injuries to their secondary. So he'll be able to pass it. So the buy, we jokes all the time by buying low. So as low as a guess for the Colts. They now are down to their third string quarterback after, I mean, already going in the worst loss. So what I didn't even touch on? I mean, I'm trying to think of the human thing. Matt Ryan, do you imagine if that's it of his career. That's literally how they're going to do this guy, that his end of his career is going to end that way. That was the first thing I thought

of, Chad, because that was the reason I loved this spot so much for the Colts was like, like this is a great bounce back spot for Matt Ryan. That's gone now. Like they're, I think they're sticking him on the practice squad, wherever it is. He's off the team at this point. Still,

I'm on it. Like you just said, it's up to five now. I can't pass on that value against a Chargers team that just plays close games, especially against a Colts team that plays close games.

I mean, that's what they've been all season. I mean, I'm trying to think the blowout they had was a couple weeks ago. What was that Dallas? That was a close game. I mean, that was like a 20 to 19 games.

game but scored these before they scored 30 points in the fourth quarter. But we saw the following week, the Colts team bounced back and we made money on them that week. So same thing here. Like we have a bunch of teams. We ride their rhythm this whole season. This is usually a spot we back to Colts at home in a primetime game and it's good to us. So we could be stepping in a chat because we have Nick Foles now and that kind of screws with the numbers in the spot. But I can't avoid it. It's like one of those games I just have to play because I've been playing it all season. So it fits. it's five in the contest.

It's going to be hard for me and Chad not to take that. It's a great number in this matchup. So hard. I also, Nick Foles is a professional quarterback, right? And not just that, a professional backup quarterback. It's his job to come in for a game or two,

fit in with the system, make the right throws, make the right decisions, keep his team in the game. You know better than anybody as an Eagles fan. He's not a starting quarterback in the NFL. And that's when he gets exposed is when he's a consistent starting quarterback. So I don't worry about his reps.

I don't worry about his time on the practice field. It's a big dick, Nick. All right. We haven't done big balls, by the way. And I'm feeling like we might have to double up here because the Eagles could end up being our big balls if we decide we're staying on them, even though they're also your Simon says. I mean, I have a couple Like there's two games I could see I could see Bair our big balls but do you want to do the Cowboys Eagles first

Yeah I thought Stucky I listened to the Action Network podcast What's amazing? What's that? What's how it's Stucky on? Well, I'm going to tell you Stucky and Raybon do the Action Network podcast

They'll do the Sunday six pack In which they each give their three best games Stucky love the Cowboys He feels like the Eagles are in a spot where, I'll quote, they don't want to show anything. They got half their roster not practicing this week. Jalen Hertz officially out. It has the makings of a game where they just want to put someone on the field,

but they don't necessarily care if they win or lose. Gardner Minshu did not practice much this week because he was at the Mike Leach's funeral. So his take was that all the circumstances lead to the Cowboys minus four and a half. I mean, that's fair. Like, I've heard that argument too, but it's just, I don't know. I feel like it's Dallas week. Like, these players know how much Eagles fans absolutely hate the Cowboys.

And, you know, no shock. They've heard all this stuff. Like, I mean, like, just last week, Michael Parsons is calling Hertz, a system quarterback. Like that was real and guys got mad about that. They were making comments about it the week before even playing the Cowboys. So they're getting ready for the Bears and they're talking about that. I don't know. I don't see the Eagles overlooking this one.

And it is technically a game we need. We need to win this game to lock up the division and be the one seat. So to me, like we already talked about it, I love the Cowboys in the spot because it was going to mean more to them, especially after that loss and overtime, this was going to be a great bounceback spot for the Cowboys at home under a field goal. That, to me, was all the value where you're like, we're catching under a field goal. Dack, not the age is a lot to prove, but what is this?

Year 7 for a deck, and he's one and three in the playoffs. So they're just going to be a lot more sense of urgency with the Cowboys. Like, I agree with him on that, where they were going to be the hungry and more desperate team. But with Hurts out, I just feel like that's such a rallying point for this, Eagles team. And not shocking the public would be all over it because we all thought it might be Hertz. So the money you saw pouring in the last two days was all Eagle's money because the off chance of Hertz would's going to be in. You're getting a great number. Like this number would probably go down to three if it was a banged up Hertz playing this game. It's not. So now it's

all the way back up to six. Obviously, we gave up the bad number. That sucked. That does happen. I mean, we're human. We make mistakes. And that was one of those that's out of our control. Six and a half in the contest, Chad. How do we pass on that? You know, you don't. Right. I'll tell you right now. You love that.

So I agree with what Stucky's saying, but there's some parts of it where it's like he should know better. He's a Ravens fan. The Ravens had a backup QB when they went down to Pittsburgh. Did they kind of flown that one in? Hell and no. They played even harder. And that's how I feel like most teams,

they rally around that backup quarterback. It's just a rallying cry for the team. I will tell you, I have no fear of taking the Eagles in this game. I listen to what Stucky said on. Action Network Pod, don't disagree. But I feel like the Eagles are a better coached, better all-around team, a lot of pride. And I like, like, Gardner Minshew in one game, he's a fucking wildcard, man.

You take it at four and a half, though? I would want to see what else is out there, right? Like, we have, we will see what the Bears number is at. We'll see what the Pat's number is at. We haven't talked about Washington. We'll see what the Packers number is at. you know, who knows? Can we get Carolina at three?

Right. Are we going to be able to get Minnesota at three? Like, there's a couple things that I think we need to sort of see how things play out. Do you want to talk about the Washington game? Yeah, because to me, that might feel like big balls. That is the big balls. Big balls, better the week. Hicking myself, I didn't make that our Simon says are foxful because seven and a half,

it felt like that was going to disappear. And it did. I mean, that it was a second. Yeah, you can maybe find it, but I could just see this number going a six and a half, and that's exactly what it should be in this matchup, where, yes, the 49ers are the cream of the crop. They're one of the better teams in football.

But Washington's also a playoff team, and we've seen them kind of rally in these games where them losing by eight points, wherever that was against the Giants, that's like a blowout for Washington. This whole year, they've just been in these really close games. And we've seen his whole career Shanahan at home is a big favorite struggles.

Like for some reason, that's when he struggles. And it's always kind of been that way. So not surprising that this is going to be a pros versus Joe's. I mean, the public is going to be all over the 49ers. This is one of the most teased teams this week. It's one of the most money-line bet teams this week. Shocked to no one. I love this game as an upset.

Just a total out of nowhere. Everyone's off Washington after a bad primetime game. People are all in on the 49ers. They are, I mean, they probably are now the most bad team over the Eagles. Pete Niners. Yeah. Just because Hertz got hurt. I feel like people are going to come in now on the Niners because that gives them a little bit more confidence, which is fair to me.

Like, if Hertz is out for five weeks, he doesn't play until the first time he's in the playoffs, that's a huge deal. So it makes sense for all the love of the 49ers. But this is the exact time this team has a letdown game. So wish we had the seven and a half would take it down at six and a half. So I feel like you can grab the seven right now. That's perfect for the big balls, bet of the week. Pro's Joe, as you said, it's 65% of the bets on the Niners, 73% of the money on the commanders.

Right. I think you made a really good point. Kyle Shanahan, as a big favorite at home, is almost an auto fade. And I don't have the exact ATS record in front of me. It doesn't matter. I can say blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I believe Chase Young's coming back too this week. This is a coach who when his teams have big leads, we've seen it, and our big favorites,

his decision making tends to get a little more conservative. Brilliant offensively, everyone knows I'm like a Kyle Shanahan Stan, right? I love the guy. I think he's brilliant. But this is an Achilles heel for him, these spots. Also, it's a low total. And I think when you have low totals at 38, 38 and a half, and you have a relatively high side, in this case a touchdown or more,

the books are basically telegraphing, take the underdog, because they're expecting the big money on the favorite. And that's the big bets on the favorite. And that's what we're seeing here. Big balls, better the week. Washington Commanders plus seven. Now, have you bet anything along on these small? home teams like the Carolina Panthers catching two and a half three at home you touched that at all

I did not bet that instead I bet the under in that game fair you touch uh Pittsburgh against Vegas have not touched Pittsburgh Vegas at all because the entire oh it's a two now so that was that was a split game I know a really smart group on Vegas I told them straight up I love Pittsburgh here not going to throw in our contest I respect these guys but I love this for Pittsburgh. Catching this Vegas team outdoors in the cold. I don't know. Just feels like a great spot to back this Pittsburgh team,

especially the way that Vegas just won that game. I don't know. I liked it. I was just shocked to hear that a really smart group was heavy on the Raiders. Now, that was at plus three. It's down to plus two at most books now. But I don't know. Just thought it was interesting.

They'd be so willing to back that team when we know it's going to be like whatever it is, minus six in Pittsburgh. we'll see if these desert boys are built for it because I know the Pittsburgh guys historically usually in Pittsburgh defense kind of rallies at home and these kind of games. Interesting to hear the pros like Vegas in this spot. 60% of the bets on not all of them, 60% of the bets on the Raiders, but 58% of the money on the Steelers. Yeah, that's what I thought this was the pro spot for Steelers.

So I just letting people know this is more split. This is why we might have it in there just because I respect the hell of these guys. I just know if they're taking a position that they, They know something going on behind closed doors that I don't. Well, we got to make a Scooch Roulette call here. When all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. Normally, Simon says, an exact decision are two of the leading indicators for which way we'll lean.

But, you know, you had the Eagles and Simon says and I had the Colts an exact decision. Right. I think I won Scooch Rulet last week. You did. So I get to go first. I'm taking Washington plus seven. Smart. Is because I think of the games that I like the most

and that I've already bet this week, it's the only one where the number is still the same. Right. Because I would also take the Packers, but I got them at five and a half. I would take the Bears, but I got them at nine and a half. Like those numbers are so far gone. Washington Plus 7 we've liked all week. So that's mine.

What's yours? Yeah, I hate it because like the, We got the numbers are just moving Like I really want to go Patriots at three But I just hate pushes Why don't you take the The Steelers at minus two Because that's what a smart person went doing

I'm not smart Oh fuck it I mean it's I'm in on it It just sucks at such a shit number But I fucking love this spot Give me the Panthers plus two and a half

Wow Yeah a little bit off reservation Totally It's not even one of my bigger bets this week. I'm just, I'm trying to think of what game do I just absolutely hate the most because I just love the lines. And it's just got to be the right side.

Like, this is such a trap line. That is. I'm fading myself. Even when you are a professional, there is no amount of professionalism or confidence that self-loathing can't come into play. All right. This is how I win, baby.

What is our money line round robin parlay right now? Oh, Matt Mitchell's so right. How did I know take Steelers after our guy Franco passed away? God damn. That really is the play. Look, one of us on this podcast, Matt Mitchell, Simon Hunter, bestselling author, Chad Millman, wrote a bestselling book about the Steelers and the Cowboys rivalry in the 70s.

and how it not just represented the changing NFL at the time, but also the changing sociology, psychology, and reflection of American values at the time. Because the Steelers were the blue-collar team. They believed in hard-nosed living, and the cowboys were the fancy team from a city that was growing out of the desert, gleaming office towers, home of Texas instruments, representing a new world order steeped in computing.

The Steelers were representing the old world steeped in the industrial revolution. Melman wrote that book. It was a bestseller. I would say to that, without the Amacca reception, football is probably half as popular as it is. Totally agree. That was one of those like people talked about it for years and years and years just because, it was just such a polarizing play. So I always put that in the name of, you know, calling his shot Super Bowl.

Those are the two big spark plugs to me for the NFL where it's like you can trace back all the history and everything like that. But those are the two plays that people talked about forever, right? I mean, they're still talking about it. What was it? It's the 50th anniversary this weekend. This weekend is the 50. If they have a big celebration plan in Pittsburgh prior to Franco Harris dying, this was all planned.

So something happened before I was even alive. I can close my eyes right now and see it frame for frame. Oh, of course. Often they show that clip. So it's just crazy to think how historically impactful that play was. Look, if people want to go by the ones who hit the artist, the hardest by Chad Millman, bestselling book for the holidays, this could be the time to honor Frank O'Harris, who I met with for the book and couldn't have been nicer.

By the way, a little more Millman history. Here we go. I was his Sports Illustrated. I wrote about his Super Donut Company. Oh, it comes full circle. Oh, comes full circle when it's about Chad. Yeah. Chad Milman wrote a book.

All right. What's her money line around Robin? Your dog, your dog likes my dog. All right. Let's start off with our boys, the Patriots, pull the upset. Give me the Panthers. I'm sorry, Detroit, but that game just stinks. We don't care anymore.

We already got Detroit over six and a half. Twins. Vax. What's a good big dog for us? I mean, Atlanta's tempting just because the Ravens right now have no quarterbacks practicing this week. Like the backup to Lamar is not practicing. Lamar's still not practicing. Who would you rather throw in for the big dog?

Them or the commanders? Atlanta are commanders. Commanders? Commanders? All right. We'll throw them in. Got to go with the Eagles at this big of a number. and of course our darling.

Our team we love this week. The public road dog. Give me greenback. All right. I'll go slow so Matt can put it in the chat for the Ampers. Moneyline round robin. Patriots, Panthers, commanders, Eagles, Packers.

Here's the full lineup. Going slow. Foxhole. Pats plus three and a half. Simon says, Eagles plus five and a half. exact decision was Colts plus four. That is now up to five with Nick Folls news. Big balls, Washington plus seven.

Scoot Roulette, Washington plus seven for Chad. Carolina plus two and a half for Simon. We got a whole host of liens right now. We're waiting. I can't believe I forgot my Christmas hat this whole episode, bro. Oh, man. We like the bears. We like the paths.

We like Washington. We like the Packers. We like the Eagles. where could be talking about Carolina on Sunday. I got a feeling. So please, please, please check the action network out. Follow the phase five. That's where you get our final lineup for our final five for the contest.

We'll post it Sunday at noon. Let's do it. Listen, I want everyone to have an incredible holiday weekend. We, of course, are so appreciative that everybody listens, that everyone rates and reviews and subscribe. and gives feedback to me and to Simon and to Matt Mitchell. Can't do it without you guys listening. You are our gifts.

Thank you. For Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter, I'm Chad Millman. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify. Wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

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