The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 30, 2022

The last episode of a wild 2022 is finally here. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter look through a rocky slate of games for this penultimate week of the NFL regular season. Together they narrow down their favorite against the spread bets, including a long hard look at the discarded Tampa Bay Bucs as they face the surging Carolina Panthers. Plus, we hear a round of Sharp Calls, with many professional groups split on the week's biggest matchups. We also discuss the enormous Bills vs Bengals game on Monday Night Football, and so much more. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It's NFL playoff time and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandwell. I love betting with Fandwell because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use, and because they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. And when I win with Fanduel, I get paid fast. Plus, Fanduel is now live in Ohio.

So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to start making every moment more. Must be 21 or older and in select state. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Or visit C-CPG slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8109 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas.

1-877-7-70 stop in Louisiana. visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland 1-8-778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York, 1,800-522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am for every episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, Professional better. Simon Hunter.

Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. Our last show of 2022. Wow. I didn't even think about it. I didn't even put it in context against the end of the year. It's been such a wacky week with vacations getting canceled and sort of feeling a little bit lost that I've forgotten

that all of a sudden this weekend is the last weekend of the year. 2022, man. We did it. Who is your? Did you get your action thing, end of the year thing from Action app, where he said what team you bet on the most and won the most on? I did. I love that review.

And of course, I've completely forgotten it already. But I love it. Way to plug your product. Well, I got the Bengals, which I was shocked at. And then it made sense because if you're new to the show this year, me and Chad, were hot last year in the playoffs. I won 11 and 4 best bets, Chad, went 12 and 3 best bets. And I went through and I looked.

All my bets were on the band. Bengals. And then this year, all my bets had pretty much been on the Bengals. So my best team for 2022 was the Bengals, which not too much of a shock. I think someone put it out there. They're the best team ATS in the last like 20 years since we started tracking data. This has just been an insane run by this Bengals team. My best league was the NFL up 21 units, 125, 94, and 3 on NFL bets this year. my best months were January and November. No playoffs.

Yeah, of course. In November this past month was just rocket ship. My biggest win was September 25th, the Dolphins beating the Bills. Oh, I had a big win on Jacksonville beating. You don't have your team of the year? I'm getting there. My worst team was Houston Texans.

Man, it's like we never found the right rhythm with the Texas. on them so much early and have not been on them as much as late. And the team I could count on the most, my top team like you, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington commanders. Interesting, I listened to the Action Network podcast earlier this year. My overall record was this year 139, 116, and 3 for all bets across all sports tracking the Action Network app. So it's a really cool sort of Spotify-like wrap-up. I listened to the Action Network podcast this morning with Stucky and Raybon. Raybond's best team was also the Bengals.

I think a lot of people. We're going to have the Bengals as their best team if you bet on football, given the fact they're 20 and three against spread the last 23 games. And that end with the, I feel like a lot of the pros just rode the Bengals in the playoffs. Every game, I felt like they're catching a couple points, and you're just like, well, them is a dog. They'll only lose or win by three.

and that pretty much carried a lot of people last year. Yep, that's totally true. Totally true. It is Thursday. As is our custom, on Thursday, we will try to nail down our final five. As is always the custom as well, you can follow those picks just about an hour before kickoff. Simon and I will put them in the Action Network app. Follow the Faves 5 to get all of the picks, the other picks.

Follow the Favits podcast. We do that separately. Just a reminder, the Faves 5 is just the five picks. that Simon and I put in our contest. We are currently five games out of first. We are top 50. We are pretty much guaranteed to be in the money out of 4,000 people. But when you get to top 10 is when you make the big money.

So we are still striving in these last two weeks to make up ground and get to the top 10. Our foxhole this week was the Texans plus four. Unfortunately, that number is at four and a half. Simon says was Vikings plus three and a half. That is still the current number. The exact decision, I'm excited to hear if there were shop calls about this for me. the bills minus one and a half. We owe you a big balls.

We owe you a Scoot Roulette. We owe you a money line around Robin. As always, let's start with Sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Chad, you already know.

I'm pretty busy this week. So I'll be up front with the fans. All the calls I usually take, I pushed a lot of them to my lack. Let them do. My minions let them do a lot of the work this week. So, I mean, I got a bunch of the games, but it's not, it's not going to be one of my stronger weeks. And it's going to be one of those weeks, too, where most of the pros, they're just, I don't know. Not that they're going hard this week, but they kind of took positions early in the week based off a lot of rumors and noise. They're kind of just waiting for this next week in the playoffs where next week is you find a lot of value.

There's certain teams you'll see next week that are simply quitting or taking off where other teams, you know, they're going full bore or they're not going to play either because they're going to rest harders for the play. playoff. So yeah, there's always action. Like I got games here we'll talk about where guys are, it's a lot of split. People are betting both sides. But there's no like dudes making big, big bets or guys taking huge stands. I mean, the craziest action I would say early on was that 49ers news, which I was going to be all in on the Raiders.

And I simply said, got to wait and see what the deal is. You said, wait. I actually have a note of it. I thought it was very impressive. You said we would like Vegas plus six, but you said, just wait. We got to keep our. keep our powder dry. And it's just because we're at in this season where money is real.

Like the owner of the Raiders is a cheap dude. I think everyone can agree on that. This guy's pretty cheap. He's not a self-made man. He's a guy that took over his dad's business and he's running it. And that's a lot of money that they're going to admit to Derek Carr. If Derrick Carr, say, blew his knee out in this final game. Like they'd be stuck in it contractually if he got injured.

So they're making a business decision. So pissed I didn't take the other side because. I was just like, all right, I'll throw them in a teaser or something, the 49ers for very small. Didn't put a lot into it. Just took them to one straight up and got to text that morning. Like, again, I was traveling, got to text. Hey, their car, I don't think he's going to play. I think he's going to come out.

He's going to sit. Just take the number. And I was like, I got to wait and see because I didn't really trust the source on it. Man, we're the pros all over that one. So that sucked and missed that boat. The Jalen Hertz one sucks too where I thought Jailen Hertz was going to play. It's looking more and more based off the line movement that. People are getting info.

It seems like he's not going to play him. He hasn't practiced either. So getting to sharp calls this week. We're split, Chad. We are split down the middle. We'll start with the Green Bay Vikings game. I get where they're coming from, why they like Green Bay in this matchup,

but I just feel like it's too much disrespect to the Vikings. A three and a half, that's a great number in a divisional game where the, let's see if the Vikings are. They play these games close. And if Green Bay was some juggernaut, if this was a 49er say, okay, I'll give the big. benefit to that home team, catch a minus three and a half at home. Yeah, I'll be on the 49ers

against the Vikings. Green Bay with Aaron Rogers, it just isn't what people think they are. They're just not as good as people perceive them. They've had really good matchups here these last couple weeks and played some bad teams. They've beaked out some good wins. Like, I'll give them credit for that. Minus three and a half, though, that just feels like such your overreaction. So interesting hearing that there's pros who actually like Green Bay. They took him at three. They took him at minus two and a half. They still said they'd take him at minus three and a half. I just totally disagree with that one. I get, once again, though, I get where they're coming from,

but I'm just on the other side of it. And the same goes for this Jet Seahawks game. The pros think not only that the Seahawks are due, that this is too much of an overreaction to a Seahawks team at home, that they play well at home. And I still think it's the same thing where me and you already got burned on this, where the Seahawks just aren't the same team that were earlier in the year. The book seems like it's out on Gino.

The Jets are healthy, right? If Mike White's playing in this game, and that's all guaranteed. I just, I love this number for them. They just feel like a better version of the Carolina Panthers. And we saw the Panthers

go up to Seattle and absolutely dominate this team. So shocked to hear that the pros love this number so much. I just, to me, the Jets feel like the right side. And the pros are against us again

with the picks we're on. But the one they liked that Chad made, I'm almost positive you made, was the bills. Dude, that was my exact decision. Right. I love that they love it.

Yeah. And I'm so, I just don't get it. It's the same thing I do where it's like I'll support it and I'll back it. It's a game I just don't have a great read on. But I just feel like to play here is you just tease up Sensing. You kind of kind of push this one and just enjoy this game where, man, it's just such a coin flip game. But like the pros are agreeing with you.

You're getting the better team under a field goal, got to back Josh Allen. And they believe it. I'm like, that's not all public money. The reason the bills are the biggest bet team. to win the Super Bowl this year. That's a lot of pro money too. So it's a guy the pros love and they're right there with Chad. They think this number should be minus three.

I think it should be a pick. It's right in the middle of minus one and a half and I'll ride with my guy, Chad, here. So I'm still back in the bills. It was just interesting to me. I thought this would be more of a split game. The pros love the bills here. They love them. By the way, this line is now down to minus one, which is interesting.

Because 82% of the money pros backing the bills, 64% of the tickets backing the Bengals. So for people listening live and for people who will be listening over the next 24, 48 hours, do we bet the bills at minus one? If you can find it at minus one. It is, there are minus ones out there. Yeah, I also think that's part of the teaser, the teaser like, where like you get a six point teaser, that's seven and a half.

That's such a key number. The books move to seven now. Most books, they kind of lost on a teaser if it's a push. So it makes sense. They moved it. It's just, it's exactly what we just talked to the, Chad. Like, I get where you're coming from. But if I see this game, any netted pick, I could honestly, because that's where I have it.

I just feel like the pros, they love, they just love the bills. I feel like they're blind to it at this point. But I get exactly where they're coming from. It's just, I feel like it's an overlay of a bunch of pros are pets. because they keep losing money, fading Joe Burrow. And it's like three weeks straight now that I know some really smart guys. And every week they fucking calling me. And they got me last week where I totally agreed with him.

I thought that was the exact right spot to take the Patriots. We just got simply unlucky. But I honestly count that as a loss to Joe. So as much as I get what they're chasing here on fading Joe Burrow, and it's going to catch up to them, like this will catch up to them. That's what I'm a little worried about this Bengals team heading to the playoffs that they peaked these last couple of weeks. and they're kind of going to fade down the stretch here.

So you and all the pros are on the smart side of you're backing the fact the number is going to catch up to Joe eventually, which it will. And you're back in the fact that he hasn't caught a loss against the spread in fucking hey, what is it, eight weeks, like nine weeks. It's something crazy like that where he's just been a covering machine. So I totally get where you guys are coming from. I think it's just I'm just scared to put the money against them. That's the honest truth where it's like I'm totally with these guys.

it's going to catch them eventually. But it's just interesting that these guys are making a bigger bet on the bills where it's a prime time game and they know this number is going to fluctuate. Like this is the Monday night game. Depending on how this week goes, we're going to see a lot of money pouring in on this game on Monday night. I like it. I like when I'm on the same side as the wise guys.

It is a good feeling, honestly. That's why I like, I wish I was more committed to it where it's like made sense that so many really smart guys are putting big amounts on it. I freaking love it. Love it. Let's dig into another game. A couple other games. The Jets, that number is down to one and a half.

We liked it on Tuesday at two and a half. It's now down to one and a half. I don't know that it'll move much more than that. I'm with you. I think that we've seen Pete Gino. This team's not going to get better. They're not going to get better playing against a really, really, really good top five in the league. Jets defense, a Jets defense that can basically do what it wants against the run,

daring Gino Smith to beat them, and has really incredible back-end coverage. Exactly. That to me is a difference. Like the fact that they can run man, that's such a huge advantage. We've seen it all year with this Jets team. So I told you, it makes sense what they're thinking is with the Seahawks, where it's the same thing of how overdue the Seahawks are to cover. and win games at this point.

But I like a really standpoint of this is just the better version of Carolina with better, I don't want to say better coaching because Carolina's coaching has improved ever since they got rid of their last head coach. But this Jets team, they played so well. I know it doesn't, didn't play out that way, but they played so well against the Jaguar team that was humming offensively. They held them to a bunch of field goals. And that was a lot of times where they were on a short field because Zach Wilson was so

anemic on the offense. So nothing's changed for me where like you bring in a couple of. quarterback a team believes in. That's a spark to a team. We saw it. The week where they went to Minnesota, I know they didn't win or cover that game, they had every opportunity to this Chet's team. We saw the team rally around Mike White. They had those t-shirts on about like, whatever it was, about having a real quarterback. It was something a little shade throwing at Zach Wilson. So yeah, I love it, Chad. It just, it's one of those where I leak a little bit of confidence. I know I'm going against my brethren where it's like, I know two smart groups came in

heavy on the Seahawks at two and a half and went down to one. Me and a couple of the guys went right back in on the Jets, went back up to two, and now it's kind of been bouncing from two to one and a half. And it's like, all right, be three or four of us against three or four of other guys and it's just going to be us ping ponging. This will never hit three and this will never hit a pick. I feel like it's just going to sit right here and just bounce back and forth. So as long as it's under two and a half, I feel like we're getting a good number of the

jets. Sounds like we got a wise guy betting battle going on. A little bit. I would say that the bigger ones that Green Bay Vikings on, brother. Like that's like the tear family apart. Like, what the fuck do you know? No, no, you fucking need. Like kind of arguments going on.

Like I stay out of those, but like, dudes are pissed at each other about a football game. They're like, you know, not that we view each other as, I don't know, even put in a phrase without shit on someone. But it's like calling someone, you know, going chalk. It's like you're super chalk if you take the Vikings here. Like, you're taking. a team that has over 10 wins, that's a three and a half point underdog on the road.

That should be your signal to take Green Bay here. Like the bookmakers are telling you something here. And I just say the bookmakers are overacting just like the general public is for this Green Bay team. It's like, yes, do I think Green Bay is going to probably win and steal this game? Yeah, but over three and a half? No way. Like they can maybe squeak this out by field goal. They're just not that good of a team.

Like look at their last couple wins, who they played, how they won those games. Their defense is as good as people are first. and I don't think the offense is as good as people perceive. And I agree with the Viking stuff. The Vikings have major flaws. Like we all know about their point differential and how much they've struggled this year. And are they closer to an 8 and 17 than what they are now? Yes.

But I think that says more about Kirk and this team. We're like they're just, they're dead, they're left for dead and they keep fighting back every week. So you can't scare me off of it. Three and a half. If it's three and a half in the contest, I have to put it in. It's just a number I have to play. It feels like at this point of the year we know exactly what all. all these teams are, and I know exactly what I'm getting from Minnesota.

And at three and a half, that's just too good a value to pass on. By the way, we always reference the luck rankings, and we'll get to this. Number one, luck ranking differential this week, Denver and Kansas City. Number two, Green Bay and Minnesota. So Minnesota has been the way luckier team? Yeah. Right. And also luck differentials of 16 or more winning.

it a 60% clip this year. Denver, Green Bay, Indie, New Orleans, Cleveland, all at luck differentials of 17 or more. Interesting. By the way, the next one in the list, Houston, Jacksonville. The differential is 11.

And I do want to talk about Houston and Jacksonville. That was our foxhole game at plus four. The line's gone up to four and a half. Yeah. I still feel really good about the Texans here. Yeah, and I think that was after the Doug Peterson press conference where he said he wasn't going to arrest starters. So maybe that's why the number bumped up.

But from the pros I talked, it seems like one of those where it's like, you bet Houston here, you bet nothing. Like you can trust the Jaguars in the game. They just simply don't need. And yeah, they might show out and they're professional. I'm sure they're going to try and they're going to try to put up stats. but I don't know. The Houston lane an egg after winning a game,

I get that argument as well, but I just, well, he's had that in love these last couple weeks. It's hard for us to predict that they have such a letdown game here where every week they've had nothing to play for technically and they've showed up. Like, they've had key starters not playing in these games and they're picking these games to the wires.

Like that Chiefs game, when I went back and watched it, sure, it had a lot to do with the scheme and Mahomes not having the best game, but he wasn't really that bad in that game. Like he was actually completing a lot of passes. Just the offense was moving the ball so well. Sam against Dallas and then same against Tennessee last week. So seems like they kind of found something here in Houston. And if this was three, I could see why you would take the Jags.

But the fact that it's four and a half now, how do we not take this if it's in the contest? Oh, my God. It's another one of those games where it's like maybe we'll be kicking ourselves come Monday. It's like no wonder it was such a good number. but it feels like just an overreaction of, yes, the Jaguars are very good. They're probably going to win this division. Are they four and a half better than Houston, a team that's had their numbers over these last couple years, even when Houston was terrible?

No. So, yeah, give me Houston, Chad. We can't avoid this number. Yeah, yeah. I'm only disappointed that I didn't get up. And it's Jaguars on the road, too. Like Jaguars back to back on the road. Come on.

What are we missing here? Like I said, I better. on Tuesday. My only disappointment is that I took the Texans at four and not four and a half. That's when you got to bet it again, brother. Yeah, that's right. I told you that last week. I think it was like, you were like, well, I bet that under and the Chiefs Seahawks game of 49, now it's 15 and a half. And I was like, even better. Bet it again. Yeah. You're right. If you like it that much of 49, go back in again at 40 at 50. And again, that will burn you sometimes that overall, I really do feel like you just take the better value, you trust the instincts

So, okay, the public's wrong on this one. I'm going to keep getting a better number. And that's how it kind of goes with this one, where I do think it's because Doug said, no starters will rest. We saw this flip. Vice versa, no, we can't really talk about it. Maybe we will at the end to the amp listeners,

but the Cowboys Titans game, that moved three points when the head coach Rable came out. I was just like, yep, resting them. Yep, Derek Henry Doubtful. So 10 guys, 10 starters on the, are listed as doubtful or they won't be playing. They're treating this one like an exhibition game. Let's do that at the end, just for the ampers. Well, what I was going to say on that is that you can have the same thing with the Jaguars Texans,

where this number can be four and a half. All of a sudden, Sunday morning, you see, okay, they're going to rest Travis E.TN. They're going to rest Zay Jones. They're only going to play Lawrence for the first half. Whatever it is, there might be news that might make this number of moves. That's what I mean. Like, if you just want to be safe or you are with us on it, make sure you grab the four and a half now, because this number could move if teams are going to start resting players.

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Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A game that's popping up a little bit in conversation, I listen to Stucky and Raybond talk about it on the Action Network pod. I'm looking at it as the fourth biggest differential in the luck rankings. New Orleans Saints going to play the Philadelphia Eagles as six point dogs. What about it?

I like the birds, but it's definitely murky. We don't know who the quarterback's going to be and they're now down a key starter on the offensive line. So I would say it makes sense

the pros, the pros like the Saints and they'll grab that number. I told you, I thought if it was going to be Minchu, this number would be four and a half. If it's hurts, I see this number being seven and a half, like eight and a half. I see a big movement here if this is hurts compared to Minchu. The more I think about the more I feel like this is a little bit of an overreaction to

the Saints last week catching a terrible Cleveland team and a tsunami outdoors. We've seen this Eagles team at home be dominant. We've seen them totally be a different team at home against teams, especially bad teams. So I might stay away from it because maybe we're getting a bad number in the the contest, right? Maybe it closed at six and a half and that's where the value is and the Saints. Like you should take that number against Minshue in the contest. That's fair. To me, I would just stay away from it where the Saints coming off, a huge win on the road, now on a back-to-back road game against an Eagles team that just lost brutally to Dallas. They're pissed

off this week. Like the whole week, all these guys just seem really pissed off. They might take it on the Saints here, blow them now and they know they'll get two weeks off heading to the playoffs like that's a big deal to them get two weeks of rest heading into this so um the play for me is probably still just going to be teased the eagles and i'll stay away from the spread but totally understand if guys come in on the six and a half i know that plenty of pros that came in on the seven when the saints once word came out hurts wasn't practicing so it feels like a number i'll be bouncing around maybe he'll settle in at four and a half five once we know it's minchu yeah um i think the other things that are the factors avante maddox we saw

saw in that Cowboys game, the Eagles defense in their secondary when he wasn't playing, just wasn't as good. Like in any of sort of the third down scenarios, you lose that guy and they talked about it. And immediately, that's where the Cowboys started attacking. Jordan Davis, concussion, you know, against a team that likes to run the ball. they play zone Andy Dalton decent against the zone like I think there are some other factors here

that are that are shaping up for them yeah but it's still the Saints man like they fucking suck like that's no exaggeration if you go back and watch them this year they're a bad team with Dennis Allen who's a bad head coach

so you're playing with fire if you're gonna back a Saints team on back to back road games I think I used up all my luck last week on the Saints I'm not going to do it again this week. All right. That's fair.

Do you have a feeling on? The Raiders have been really interesting. You said the Raiders, we should wait. Now Jared Stidholm is starting. It's not going to be one that we necessarily want to play unless in the contest, we're seeing it still at five and a half. Even six and a half. If you're in a different contest than us, I would smash this.

Derek Carr is as much shit as people want to give him, how bad he's been this year. I think they're like a top 15 offense, and their defense is 31st. So you're taking away now a top 12, top 15 starter, and you're replacing him with a, I mean, being nice, a bottom 45, bottom 50 quarterback. This is a nightmare scenario.

If you were a Raiders fan or better, they're tanking. I mean, this is nothing more than they're kind of throwing in the towel. They still had a chance in making the playoffs if they'd won this game. This is a great. tune-up spot for the 49ers. I think they get them here and then they get Arizona. Maybe it's next week. So the hype will be at the all-time high, Chad, heading to the playoffs. 49ers are still fighting for a two-seed. They just need the Vikings to trip up here against

Green Bay. So, yeah, me and Chad, if we're getting five and a half or six in the contest, this is an automatic play on the 49ers here. Just a bizarre, bizarre world we're living in where the Raiders just are simply giving up with two weeks left. And as someone that bet on Derek card to lead to league in interceptions. I'm pissed. I hate that they're doing it, but it's all business. Like the owner, he's counting his money. This is a business decision.

So Jets fans, whoever, whoever's getting their car next year, they should be a static. Like that is. Colts. Or the Colts. Yeah, the Colts. Holy shit. I don't know about that spot. But yeah, it just feels like their car is going to go somewhere and that that will be mutually beneficial for both teams.

If that's what he does and Tom Brady really does go to Vegas. All right. Like that will all make more sense. But right now, I don't really get what they're doing, this Vegas team. So it's a game to me where me and Chad, automatic, automatic play. Anything under seven in contest. Anyone listen to this, I'd play it. How pissed are you if you're Devante Adams? If they don't end up getting someone like Tom Brady, how pissed are you that Devante Adams went there to go play with his best buddy Derrick Carr and it lasted 14 games? I say it all the time, like history just never stops repeating. in itself. It's my favorite thing about life. You can fight fate. It is what it is. What team in our lifetime is worse at bringing in number one receivers? Randy Moss went to there, left for dead. Everyone thought he was dead. Went to New England called 20 touchdowns. Antonio Brown went there. Left for dead. Charge his feet. Went to Tampa, won a Super Bowl. DeMonte Adams. Wherever he goes

next to Ted, I will be making a large amount of money, betting a large amount of money for them to go to a Super Bowl. So insane. It really is bizarre a world. What's going on with them? If you're a dynasty owner, though, I'd keep holding him. If anything, I could see him get moved because, like I said, their owner is a very, very cheap man.

I want to raise a suggestion for Big Balls' Bed of the Week. And I can't remember if we talked about this on Tuesday. But I'm fairly certain we did. Denver Broncos. Plus 12 and a half against the Chiefs. We've talked about this a lot. on this podcast. There are so many trends for teams that are overrated in November and December, overinflated because of their massive winning percentages, especially when they're

playing teams that have really crappy winning percentages. I've talked about sort of the 25% and 65%, which fits into the Broncos and the Chiefs, the teams that are the underdogs since 2016 covering it north of a 60% clip. 72% of the money coming in on the Broncos, 60% of the tickets coming in on the Chiefs. We've got a classic Pro's Joe's here. I don't know, man. How do we ignored it?

I mean, I think it's a good pro play. It's the same reason on betting the Titans tonight. Am I giving out the Titans to anyone listening to this show? Hell no. That's truly a pro bet. You're just simply playing the numbers of big dogs in December. Yeah, Chad. You're exactly right.

That's the smart play. It's just, I just do not like it. I just don't like the mojo of it. I feel like the team is quit completely on Russell Wilson. The only reason I play is because they fired that head coach, and maybe they all hated that head coach that much. But I thought the big ball is bad. I thought you're going to go with is what you brought up on Tuesday of the game.

I really didn't like, but I feel like you're talking about it and it's the right side. I know a couple of pros that love it. The bucks at home catching minus three, minus two and a half. That takes balls to me. Like, Panthers look good. They look like the best team in that division. They just had a huge win at home. No one's been in Tampa.

Like I talked to, I don't know, 15 pros in the last 24 hours. I know one other group, Chad, one other group that has placed a single wager on Tampa. So this would truly be an island play if we bet this number. Every pro I talked to for the most part, they like the three. They like them in teasers, Carolina, which I think is a good play too. Teaser is, tease Carolina. It's a fair tease right there, taking them up to nine, nine and a half because Tampa's not going to blow them out. I don't think that's going to happen.

But covering this three, cover two and a half, I just feel like they are. Like this is a good number. Three and a half, minus three and a half, I wouldn't do in the contest. But minus two and a half, Tom Brady at home, I feel like that's a good number. Like they win these ugly close games by three. That's what Tampa's been this year. I don't know. It feels like the same thing with us back in Carolina last week.

It felt like we were on an island when we did it. And it's the same thing with the bucks this week. It's the seesaw play of we're riding the highs and lows of both these teams. This is the lowest point of buying the Tampa. This is the lowest time all year. We've bought them. It doesn't get any lower. So if we're talking big balls, Chad, this feels like this is going to be a big

balls bet this Tampa team. You think betting Tampa is a bigger balls than betting the Broncos against the chiefs? Yeah, because Broncos, that's a buy-the-book play. That's a by the play. I see. Okay. I feel like that's a play. I am,

I'm right there with you. That was the same reason. I liked the Chiefs last week against Seahawks was those nine and a half. Like, once you hit that double digit, that's always like Chad's kind of talking about it, that's always going to make me slant towards that dog. Because historically,

this late in the year, a team with the highest, high win percentage they have as the Chiefs playing a team as a dog shit, one percentage like the Denver Broncos. We take that number. Like the divisional game, too. We usually back that. number. It's just, oh, man, I don't know if I could, I don't know if I could force it into the

contest. 13 and a half I could be talked into, but it's moved down at 12 and a half. Yeah, I don't think we'll get it at 13 and a half. Yeah, I just would much rather obviously have at 13 and a half. And that's why I don't want to make it our big balls. I just don't want to make the fans of the show bet it at a shit number. All right. Then let's go with the bucks at minus three. Perfect. Big balls, bed of the week. Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three. Just to recap for people right now.

Games we are eyeballing for Sunday as we narrow it down to the final five. Texans plus four, maybe plus four and a half. Jets, possibly, if we can get them below two, that'd be nice. Potentially, we're talking about the bills, maybe. The bucks minus three. I want to throw a couple more games out at you based on the luck rankings because we talk about him a lot on this show. We just talked about Denver. We talked about Green Bay, Minnesota.

Indianapolis and the Giants. I know. I told you that one scares me. They're like I bet the Giants when it was four and a half, five and a half and five. And I'd still take him at six. I told you, I'm just worried the Colts have quit. Like that's the fear at this end of the year where we talked about all last. year, or I would say, I shouldn't say all last year, but the final three weeks, I know a really

smart group that just kept taking the Giants because the Giants were getting two or three extra points per a week than they should have been. And that was because they had quit. They didn't cover any of those games. They just were bad. They simply had given up on their head coach last year. Man, did that not look like a team that gave up on their head coach? I mean, you literally just got embarrassed, had the biggest comeback ever, and you come out and Nick Foles laid a total egg and this team laid an egg. Like, at least the defense played kind of hard against the Chargers, but that offense with Nick Foles. Yikes, man.

Does not look like a team I want to put any type of money on. So I'm happy with my position on the Giants. Another game where if you're scared of the spread, throw him in a teaser. Good week. I rarely do I give all teasers because it's not that you're betting like a coward, but a little bit. You're kind of throwing two games together instead of just bedding it straight. But I feel like the books get so sharp at the end of the year like this.

I like to just take teasers where it's kind of thrown that out where me and chat talked about. The underdogs have not been winning outright. Like they've been covering, but this has been the worst run historically since week 11 of underdogs winning outright since BetLabs has been tracking the data. So another one of these games where if you didn't get the good number on the Giants, just throw it in a T'sier if you're scared off by the 6th. But I just, I like the Giants here.

And normally, yeah, Chad, if this was like we always joke about this early in the year, no-brainer take the Colts here. But this Colts team seems like a team that's giving up. and Nick Foles looks like a quarterback that's been sitting on a team's bench for a year and a half barely practicing. Just not a good combo. All right. Matt Mitchell is reminding me. I mentioned specifically the luck rankings of 16, differential of 16 or more.

So this year, teams in those scenarios, the underdogs or the unlucky your team is covering it at a 62 and a, a half percent clip. The 16 plus differentials this week, Denver, Kansas City, Green Bay, Minnesota, Indie, New York, in this order, New Orleans and Philly, Cleveland and Washington. God damn it. So I'm going against like three of those. You're against Green Bay, you're against Indy, you're against New Orleans. Yeah, that's not ideal.

Because these luck rankings are really interesting. Like, it's been interesting to me. Your response to this, you're a professional better. There's a lot of sort of advanced metrics that you think are pretty gimmicky. But you, I feel like you've liked the luck rankings as a barometer of success and how it's, and the effort that is put into it. Yeah, because I think a lot of gambling comes down to luck and things bouncing your way. I mean, just last week, me and Chad went from a three and two week to a two and three week

because a guy missed an extra point. I mean, it's that slim of a margin to cover these numbers where you're talking about luck and good luck and bad luck. I mean, even that Patriot Super Bowl dynasty they had there, they had a lot of really good luck, but they also had crazy bad luck. I mean, Eli Manning, not that great of a quarterback, beat them twice.

Nick Foles, we just watched him play. People don't get it, but it's just one of those things where it's like luck, luck does steer a lot of things. So the reason I like the ranking so much is because it does shed light on certain teams that's like this team's incredibly lucky. Like they've been incredibly lucky this year. I kind of got into the point, though, at this point of the season where I've used it the other way with the Vikings. Like we all know how very, very lucky this Vikings team is. It's kind of who they are.

It was the same thing last year with that Bengals team. Like I remember the Bengals team every week I'd hear about their DVOA. They were like the 18th team DVOA overall. They were like the 19th defense and the 17th offense, DVOA. What DVOA couldn't factor into that is what we're talking about here, the luck ranking. And that Bengals team last year was very lucky. And they were lucky all season. And we saw that plan.

I mean, their kicker, he was automatic last year in the playoffs. Now he can't hit a kick. That's kind of how it goes from year to year with there's certain luck for certain teams. So that's what I mean with Minnesota. That's the only team I could care less about the luck ranking with. every other team I think that does matter. Like the Eagles, no doubt, have been way luckier than the Saints. Colts, no doubt, they've been an unlucky team.

They also suck. So it's kind of hard for me at this point of the year. We're like, yeah, they've been unlucky, but that was unlucky with Matt Ryan. They've downgraded her from Matt Ryan. I know how that was possible, but they have to Nick Foles. They're just certain things where I do believe in a luck ranking, but it's all about Pacific teams and what their scenario is. So I do agree with that, though, that it's a useful tool, and I've used it all year.

I'm not going to lie. Like, I always check it, especially on Sunday morning after I made my bets. I just like to know that I'm lined up right with certain teams where if I'm taking an underdog, especially a home dog, it makes me feel way better when the public's all over the road favorite. And I'm getting a really good luck ranking where it's like that home dog, they've been super unlucky. That road team that's the favorite, very lucky. That's been very profitable for me this year. It's not the end-all be-all, but those are a couple of things I look for to match up with when I'm making bets. The other game, do we have a feeling on Cleveland, Washington?

Washington is a short home favorite. This is the only other game we haven't talked about that is of 16 or more. Yeah. I don't have a strong opinion on this. I think the running joke is like the leagues against Washington, so they're going to fix this for the Browns, which I don't know. I think the league hates both these teams right now. I would take Washington because of the better team. But I don't know.

They're in a tailspin right now. Like I know Carson's the starter. And just don't really know what to do with this one, brother. So to me, this is one of those games where I'll just end up either taking Washington or pass. I just went back Watson. He just hasn't looked right since coming back off that long layoff. So pros, I could see them coming in on Washington. Washington this day is under three.

but as soon as it touched three, I'd probably bet the Browns. Like, they're two bad teams. I'll take the plus three with whatever the worst team is. But, man, just one of those that's wouldn't even make my top 15 a bet. And that's probably the last game I'd bet.

What about the last one on the board? And this is, the other one is Houston, Jacksonville, which we've discussed. Chicago and Detroit. Bears are about six-point dogs. Lions need the win. lot of evidence and stats, and again, I'll reference Raybun and Stuckey and the Inaction Network

pod. We've talked about late season over inflation. We just talked about it with Kansas City. Stucky had a really interesting stat. You narrow it down even further and talk about teams that are eliminated versus teams that have a chance to get in. The inflation is just as great. And that's the scenario with Detroit and Chicago.

Which I talk all the time that next week, please, for the love of God, the whole, just blindly bet a team because they need a game against a team that does not need the game. I mean, some of these guys love playing spoilers. It's the only two teams right now that I believe have quit. And that could be changed this week, where if Denver shows up against the Chiefs, that might have been just about their head coach.

But it's Denver and the Colts. Those are two teams I think quit, and now the Raiders can be added to that list. That's something to be aware of with certain teams heading these last two weeks. The Bears have not quit. I mean, that was just, I don't know, not bad luck last game.

but they were in it. I mean, it was 10 to 8. They completely laid an egg in the second half. I got blown out by the bills. I don't know, Chad. I don't know what to do with this one because I want to take the bears. The fear here is Detroit gets right against that defense, and they just pour it on. You got golf indoors.

His outside weapons are healthy. We've seen the connection. I look at this game where it's like, I'm sure stuck here. One of those guys is on the six. I just don't have the confidence betting it. But that does feel like the right side where that's an inflated line. like you just said, probably should be four and a half, just up to six now because most people are visioning this bearish team is quitting on the season.

Yep. One other game that Matt Mitchell just pinged us about. Early in the week, we talked about Miami at plus three if it got there. Any strong feelings on that game, that line is currently at plus three. Oh, Chad. We don't have a choice. Another game we don't have a choice. We bet Teddy covers as a dog.

We just bet them. We take the plus three. I don't know. It's a tough one because. Miami is just the better team. They got the better skill players. It's crazy to say, but they seem like they have the better coaching this season all around. I'll take the three and a half in our contest.

Yes, we blindly take it. If it's two and a half, I probably pass on that one. Yeah, three and a half. Yeah, three and a half Miami, divisional game with Teddy. Teddy loves to be a dog and he loves to cover. So it's a game where if you're like us, you just love betting these ugly dogs, ugly dog that we will be betting, Miami. Last question. This is from a user. I think it was in the AMP chat.

Last year, we talked about Mike Vrable as coach of the year. Simon crushed coach of the year last year with Vrable. Do you have any other picks for award winners this late in the season? That was like a freak scenario, though. We had the number one seed at plus 350 to win coach of the year in Vrable. And that was the classic, what have you done for me lately, bet, where the Bengals had basically upset the chiefs at home. So everyone poured in money on the Bengals head coach to be coach of the year. And we got crazy value on the number one seed in the Titans where I was just like,

these writers aren't idiots. They're going to know that the Titans had a bunch of injuries and they still somehow became the one seat in that really tough AFC. So this year, like the team I would put for coach of the year. I know he's not going to win it, but it's got to be Shanahan. Like, Tray Lance went down and what was that, week two or three. He somehow navigated that whole Jimmy G. Situation of bringing in a guy to replace him, still got him to resign.

And then he goes down. He's running Rock Purdy and they've only been better. So, yeah, if I was going to say best value and who I think should win it this year, and they're going to win their last two games, that's kind of a given. and they're going to finish as a two seed, I don't like that value on Shanahan. So if people want to know what I've sent out the clients or what I've been myself,

I like the Shanehan line of it where he has turned, a team that is very talented, has a ton of talent on it, but they've been showing up and doing it every week, and that pretty stuff is crazy. Like, he's completely not, not, I don't even want to say it, because the offense was already good with Jimmy G, but Jimmy G wasn't using all the weapons.

Like the whole thing of Kiddle not getting the touches was very weird to me. Purdy is using Kittle at a crazy rate. Like he's really using that weapon, and that's been really good for him. So they got it all going on there for the 49ers. And if they win these last two games, get the two seed.

I get where people are coming from, the Shiriani angle or, you know, any other coaches they want to bet, but to me the best value right now, yeah, it would be Shanahan. All right. Foxhole, Texans plus four. It's now a four and a half.

If you can get it at four and a half, great. Simon says Vikings plus three and a half. It's actually four at every book now, Chad. That's all good our show is. Seriously. That's amazing. Yeah, it's full every book. Simon says Vikings plus three and a half.

That was the other day. He said it on the other day because the Simon says idea is, bet it when he says it because that line's going to move. It's now at three. Exec decision, I, the bills minus one and a half. The wise guys are with me. That number is actually at one right now. So good luck there.

Our big ball's bet of the week. I can't believe we're doing it. 10 big bucks in years, minus three against the Panthers. Time for some Scoot Roulette. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. I got mine. I'm so excited about it.

Really? I'm touring because I have three different ones. I bet all the same amount on. They're all pretty even. Who just needs it? Who's the most desperate? Fuck, I hate it. I'm going with the Jets.

Give me Jets minus 2, whatever it is. I think you're a Jets minus 1.5 right now. Chad Milman has decided he's going with the Broncos plus 12.5. Are you really? Yeah. I just, it makes too much sense. It's weird to me that it's not more of a no-brainer for us.

That's fair. Broncos plus 12. I'm not even nervous about it. It's almost like when we were going with the Broncos, against the Chiefs a few weeks ago. And they were down 27-0. Never got nervous. Never nervous Millman.

That's what they call me. Money line run robin. Saints. Yeah. I don't mind that. Throw the Saints. And even though I would truly be shocked if they went back to back.

Throwing the Texans. Those are our guys. Give me Minnesota. Minnesota Vikings. I mean, there's a couple here I like. Like Carolina, even though I'm all over Tampa here, I just feel like Carolina playing for the division here. That's a fair price plus 145 money line.

How about the Colts? You think they're going to beat the Giants outright? I could so see the Giants just choking on it. I'll throw that in for you. Or I would do the Colts or the Bears. I'd rather do Bears, much rather. You're going to be bears. Let's do bears.

They at least have a pulse called Justin Fields. Bear down, Chicago Bears. I love all the teams in here. I love the Bears, obviously. I'm a huge Texans fan generally because I've always had infinity for them. When they were first launching, I went down to Houston and spent many, many weeks with the Texans as they were sort of going through their first training camp, their first game. I was there when they beat the Cowboys. We moved to the Texans.

That's everything, right? So Moneyline, Ron Robin, we did before we sign off. Earlier, we asked our live listeners on AMP a question, who is the worst QB you've ever bet on? We got a ton of responses. There were no wrong answers. It was a who's who of shitty quarterbacks. We have to select some finalists. A murderer's row of horrendous QBs to bet. First, Matt Mitchell, what inspired this question from you? In the last game of the 2010 season, versus the Jets, the bill started their third string quarterback. He went 10 for 23 for 106 yards. He threw three interceptions.

He was sacked three times and he lost a fumble. He threw a 10 yard out into the stands. The bills would lose to the very old and washed up Mark Brunel and the Jets 38 to 7. And that Buffalo quarterback's name was Brian Brom, who is serving as Purdue's interim head coach, week in the Citrus Bowl. Here we go. Matt is sending me the five finalists. Tim Rite, Christian Ponder, Jonathan Quinn, Kendall Hinton, Spurgeon, Wynne.

The guy whose name makes you laugh every time as if you were a fourth grade boy. Simon, you go first. Well, my number one was going to be Nathan Peterman. I mean, I feel like that was the most legendary thing that we came in and threw six or seven picks. Like, that was legendary. I'd put him from my number one. Yeah, it's hard to beat Nathan Peterman. That was like historical.

Yeah. From this list, I wouldn't choose Kendall Hinton because it was the easiest win you could possibly have. I'd probably go with Christian Ponder. Yeah, it's fair. He got such a cool wife. I really feel like that guy won. Oh, dude, he's totally winning life. First round pick, made a ton of money, Florida State guy.

Yeah, killing it. She seems perfectly wonderful. The guy's winning. But not a guy you wanted to bet on. No, that's true. Kdub 24, you are the winner. Please email podcasts at actionnetwork.com for your prize. This has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network.

I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter, producer extraordinaire, is Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Listen all the way through. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you.

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