The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 18

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

The NFL regular season has reached the end of the line, and gamblers are eager to bet one last NFL slate. With playoff intrigue and teams eager to play spoiler across the league, this can be one of the biggest minefields of the season. Luckily, Action Network experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to help us navigate it. Together they make their top plays of the week, recap their performance in the season-long pick 'em contest, and give some guidance on how to hedge any longshot divisional futures that still have legs. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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NY, 467-369 in New York, 1,800 522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Norman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am every episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadry, professional better, Simon Hunter, who has already come out on Twitter and said, listen to the show live on AMP because we got some big, big news. And we do have news related to the podcast, much more importantly, just breaking now as we sat down to record this was news from Cincinnati that Demar Hamlin, the Bill's Safety, who needed CPR on Monday night and the Bill's Bengals game has shown remarkable improvement, appears to be neurologically intact. His lungs continue to heal. He is awake and holding hands with family members. His agents told CNN. So that's great news.

We were all trying to figure out how are we as members of the media, how are we as fans supposed to feel about all this other than being devastated by what we saw on Monday night? And then how do we cover games, how do we bet on games, what is the NFL going to do? A lot of our feelings aren't going to change about what we saw, but remarkably good news that he seems to be recovering and on pace to make a full recovery, which is great. Simon, you got some news. I had no idea. You tweeted out this morning and then Matt Mitchell and I in Slack were like, I wonder what the news is. I have no idea. And so we sat down to record the show and you shared the news.

Please share it with everybody else. So people are on pins and needles. Yeah, it was a test and you both failed. A test that you both failed. I wanted to see if you guys could wait. You could not wait for the show. They both made me tell them before we came on air. Where's the trust, boys?

I mean, come on. You are a fucking wildcard, man. Yeah, right. Remember, do you remember the one person who, who was the most afraid of doing this show live was you for fear of what you were going to say that might get us both canceled, that might get you fired. I've turned it way down though. You did.

People don't know this. I'm up for a contract right now. So I turned a way down just because I'm trying to get paid. And then we'll be back to the old ways. Don't you wear a chat? No, I'm kidding. Yeah, they both failed. They both wanted to know the info.

So long story short, I go to our picks, the same routine every week where I do our pick. So the games end, I check the games to see where we're at in the standings or where we're at pickwise. And then me and Chad, do our show twos. And then I log in Wednesday, do our picks. So I go to log in, do our picks, and they're gone. The contest is gone. And I panic and I find out the hard way chat, the contest is over. Last week was the last week.

When I checked after the Bengals and Bill's game, it was a glitch, I guess, because that game had gotten canceled where it looked as if we stole a week left and we didn't. So sadly, the contest is over to all our great fans. And we decided we're still going to do five picks, right, this week. We're still going to do five picks. We're not going to put them in the app because we want to have fidelity to the contest, but we will make the picks that we want to make today. Because we get people always complain.

They're like, oh, they change their picks. Go to the app. Nothing's changed. Nothing's changed. Exactly to what we did. Two years ago, as our loyal fans know, me and Chad, hit 60% for the season. We came in 24th place. 60% for the whole season came a 24th, 24th place.

I had a nice little payday from that. This year, it was double the amount of people entered. So over 4,000 people entered this year. Chad and I finished 116. So I had 4,000 people, 116. We did make the money, but it's not the money like we made. I think two years ago we got 4K and a check this year, $213. Last we killed us.

We went 50 of 80, so 62.5% for the season. So we did better than we did two years ago, but the competition was that much stiffer, sadly. It was different to the contests we were in, you could have multiples, which the year we made it really far. You couldn't. I mean, this one guy, this one group, let's see what their name is. We'll give them a shout-out because they end up winning it.

Investor only 55. Investor only 55. He had three in the top 10. So this guy was clearly, really good. He ended up winning it all. He won it 72.5% crazy. So he got, again, we won 50 of 80. He went 58 of 80.

So just an incredible season. You know, great year for me and Chad. I'm bummed out that. The last week, we didn't put together. We didn't make it into the top money. But I would say I'll never complain about a season. We go 62%. We know how hard it is.

I know the fans know how hard it is. So, yeah, two out of three years, 60%. We'll be back out of next year. And we'll talk to it. we'll figure out what we're going to do next year for the contest. If we need a proxy or anything like that, but I would say we love doing it. And it was a fun year doing it.

And it's always a hard break when you don't win. We get out hard it is. So 62.5%. I'm shocked. I didn't get us into the top 20%, but I mean top 20, but it's just it's stiff competition. So always looking to improve.

All right. So A, congrats to investor only 55. We got to find whoever that is and, you know, bring them on the fucking podcast and hire them at the Action Network. So if you're listening, Investor Oler 55, you know, get in touch. Congrats on 72%. But also thinking about it. So we go 50 and 30, right?

62 and a half percent against the spread, five games every week. That's just fucking hard. Like, let's put it in context. Put it in context. You win 53% against the spread. You're making money as a professional better. Most betters are not going above 55, 56%. Even if you do that, you're one of the best betters in the world.

So doing it at 60% and above, that's fucking insanity. But also think about this. 5850. That's one and a half hands of gain. that we can count over the course of a year. Oh, yeah, easily. Easily. Now, the flip side is there's probably eight other games that we, you know,

ended up on the right side on it for a variety of fluky reasons. So it all evens out. We don't remember those eight that we missed. Yeah, I was going to say, got to blame the Jacks. Like that, they killed us midseason. We kept getting on it because we kept saying the value was there. But there's a couple of teams like that. I told you, I went through it.

And it's just, we'll do even more of a recap next, next week, once we know all the seating, because I went back and I finally listened to our August show, which was just hilarious to listen to us. Not that we were both beat down at this point, but you could hear the love and excitement we had for football. And at this point, after 18, 19 weeks, I'm just so ready for the playoffs. It's just funny listening back. But yeah, I'll never ever complain about a 62.5%.

I'm just pissed. Like you just said, we are so close. And like I can see all those little games and all those little mistakes, which this notebook I keep filling up every year I add more to it. This was year three of me and Chad doing a full time. I'll take it. Two out of three years, 60% pretty damn good. Matt Mitchell is sending us notes that we should make a comment that we do have an advantage

in that the lines are off in lock on Wednesday. So we're betting some lines where we're getting some closing line value, you know, half a point here, half a point there. The flip side is a lot of times we're not. Exactly. I was going to say, I totally disagree. When anyone, someone says that, I always disagree where there might be the off chance we get half a point of value.

You can go through all our picks, count it up. I counted five games the entire season that came down to the line closing. And I counted two games, two games. We gave out five games every week that we got a number that other people didn't get and that it mattered to the spread. So I get when people complain about that stuff, I think that's the, I got nothing to say. I don't know much about sports betting,

so all I'm going to do is talk about closing line value. That's the honest truth. Like if you harp on closing line value, you're a sucker and you're a long-term loser. It's like, yeah, it matters. I load up on games irrelevant, irrelevant, where it's like, we're going to talk about a game today. Me and Chad loaded up on the Broncos at three and a half.

That line is completely flipped. I will take the chargers at three. Am I going to be like, oh, it's because of my closing line value the whole time? No, it's like we took a position now and playing it. there's certain weeks where that does really matter. Overall, anytime someone complains it, so we gave out those lines on Tuesday or Thursday show. So it's like I get where they're coming from,

but I hate when people have bitched about that to us where it's like half the time we took lines because it was great value. It didn't work out for us. So like that's why most of the year we never chased. I think we probably, we probably ended up like we could have entered up top 50 like we were most of the year.

Yeah, if we didn't chase lines. If we hadn't been sort of so enamored with a lot of games where we fucking threw Atlanta in there this past weekend because of that. I bet there's five games over the course of a week over the season that we could pinpoint that we lost on. But a lot of it has to do with the model too, though, brother. We're like I do I do some gut betting. I do bets off other people. A lot of my bets in Chad as well comes down to I'm playing a model. So it just that's the same thing with the Atlanta one where I don't want to do it either, brother.

But I had four and a half in my mom. model it was three and a half. The line had all gone up to six and a half. I was like, all, we're getting crazy value here. So I completely agree, though, where that feels like the lazy man argument against Arsha, where all of you listening, you can enter these contests, see how hard it is. Pick five games every week. You can pick them on Wednesday or Tuesday, whatever the contest locks. Try to go 60%. It's brutally tough. I promise you that much. At the end of the day, we finished 116th out of 4,000. contestants, that's top 2.9% of all contestants. I'll take top 2.9%. Top 3%. I don't mind living a top

3% entire life. You're living good top 3%. I don't mind it. I would have liked higher. Yeah. Not bad people can probably tell them a little snippy because I'm just mad that it's over. A reminder. Foxhole, we had the Browns plus two and a half. Simon says we had the Titans plus six and a half. Exact decision. You mentioned the Broncos. We're going to get into it.

I chose the Broncos plus three and a half. That line is now Chargers plus two and a half. A lot of flipping going on. We will make a big ball. We will do our scooch roulette. We will do our money line round robin. Parlay. But first and foremost, we're going to get to Sharp calls.

Hello. who's there, I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, Baby, what you do it? It's a tough week where a lot of these lines are bouncing. We got a bunch of QB news. We did that show, what was it, Tuesday night, and a bunch of QB news kind of came out

and, like, during Tuesday, Wednesday, Tuesday morning, Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon. We've seen all these lines shift, really, and then a couple lines haven't really shifted at all. The sharp calls, a couple of times are dead. So it doesn't help anyone at all. People all over the Broncos, I feel like we talked about it where you took the number

just in case it shifted when news came out, that charges might be sitting starters. And that's exactly what happened. So that was one where I think we both sent the show. We were going to bet as many plus threes and a halfs as we could find. And to no one's surprise, it completely shifted. So that was one of the more sharp call and sharp-degree bets of the week. A game I told Chad I needed more calls on was. that Carolina Panthers game.

The pros love the Saints. They love it. I'm scared because I like the Panthers kind of, but I'm not going against them. I don't even know. It's up to like five different smart groups that came in on this number, and then one guy came in on the opposite side,

took the Panthers out plus four. I'll end up probably in the Saints, but it may be that one I'll just stay away from just because it's really split, but pros I can tell you right now, they're going to come in on the Saints team. A game we didn't talk about, surprisingly, was Atlanta. I know a couple really smart groups have come in Atlanta.

That was the one game we missed by accident. So maybe we could talk a little more about that one. I kind of had an opinion on it where I was going to take Atlanta because it felt like they were going to play the starters. Like they're one of those teams that just play hard regardless, especially with a rookie quarterback in there. On the flip side, Tampa is resting. I mean, everything I've read, it seems like Tampa's not playing that one.

So that's a game we'll definitely have to touch on. And then again, we love that all the pros are going to love Tennessee. We said early in the week, I thought Tennessee was going to be just a pro-back game. The fact that it wasn't seven, it was kind of a telling sign. It felt like it kind of let you know that early money was going to come in on them. I think Chad looked it up and said that all the money had come in early on Tennessee, and that's what I expected. I just feel like that was the normal play where every guy is going to have that

that six-point parlay of this week of, I mean, I have to go through it. I know, like, the Chiefs were in there, and they bumped out all the way up to nine and a half. But I was not shocked to hear so many pros on Tennessee, but I was honestly, the Atlanta went through me for a little bit of a loop just because that's an interesting position to take. And the fact that I didn't really anyone backing us with Cleveland, maybe they want the three.

But I feel like two and a half is a fair number. If you can get the three, obviously, that's great. But I thought that was going to be more bet this week. And again, we're early. This is, you know, it's not even one o'clock. noon yet East Coast on a Thursday, but for the amount of bets I usually take in this week, I was just shocked that so few have come in on the Browns. I do really still like this spot of this Browns team.

All right. So let's talk about the Broncos first. Broncos plus three and a half. Look, we like the Broncos plus three and a half, at least I did. On Tuesday, not in a vacuum, right? The Chargers being on the road, being favorites on the road. the Broncos have been a team that we have backed pretty consistently all season long, especially as pretty really big favorites this past weekend especially.

And I just feel like, again, in a vacuum, their defense is really good. The Chargers offense has been struggling, even if it is Justin Herbert and sort of a wide array of complementary talent on the edges and Austin Echler. Now, I think this game is flipped. I haven't seen news about the Chargers resting, but I do know that their seating is dependent upon what happens earlier in the day. So it's entirely possible they know what they need to win

to get better seating or they could win and nothing will happen depending on earlier games. I think that's why it's flipped, right? Am I missing something? 100%. So it's like the easiest thing ever. If you want to bet like a pro, a pro is always taking the money where you can.

You literally, if you bet, I don't even know, If you bet one unit on the three and a half, you take the three. You just take the three in the charges right now, and you hope for that middle or if it lands on a push, so be it. But it's the exact thing what Chad just said. If the Ravens or I forget what the scenario is, if the Ravens or the Bengals, one of them pulls an upset or vice versa, if the Bengals win, I guess they don't need a play if the Ravens lose. But if the Ravens win, they can move up a seeding. So that's why the Chargers would have to win this game to keep that seed in the five hole, I guess.

And I could be wrong because I'm not the best with the playoff scenario stuff. But just looking at this movement, Chad just said it. Like, we'll take the dog. And I took the under as well where if Herbert sits even better. This would be a low total. Don't know how many defensive players are going to rest either of the Chargers, but could just already see this being a low scoring game. The Denver is the bet.

I think Denver is going to win this game. Obviously, it changes everything now if it is going to be Herbert. So that's the thing. If you already missed the value on Denver, you can just sit it out. out and then once you have more clarity, maybe bet the number before the game. Do you feel like you take the two and a half for the chargers right now or do you wait? Do you wait until Sunday when you sort of get a better sense of what the chargers might do based on their seating?

Yeah. And also, I just don't tell people to buy points. I hate telling people to buy points. Like buy half a point to make it three if you could get two and a half. But I wouldn't fault you if you did it. I just play the number. So like to me, if I already missed the three, I would throw a little on the two and a half. But just if I'm already locked into three and a half, that's the big bet.

So, yeah, instead of putting half a unit on the two and a half, maybe only put whatever, point two on the two and a half, just because it's a key number, but it's not as key as three, obviously. Just mathematically, you know, the math doesn't work out where it lands more than it does it too. Yep. Interesting game. Fascinating game. This whole weekend, there could be a lot of spots where...

Yeah, I love these kind of games. You might want to wait, right? I just love these games where everyone's hoping for a middle. and the book, just because it's so sharper this time of the year, they're dreading that. They're just so they're going to be right all in the middle. Another game, and I always referenced Chris Raybon and Stuckey in the Action Network podcast. Stucky had a really good point about the Lions Packers.

And we talked about this the other day. We like the Lions at four and a half. Yeah, we're a couple of suckers. Regardless of the scenario, right? Because the Lions will know before the game whether or not they're in the playoffs or they're playing spoilers because of the Seahawks. Earlier in the day, if Seahawks win and Lions are out. And it screwed up, but honestly, is the better, chat?

I want them to be the spoiler. Like, them playing for the playoff makes me more nervous than being a spoiler. Them spoiler spot, yeah, to me is great. But that's what I think. I think, and Stucky made a really good point, it's very possible. Seahawks win. Lions know they're only going to be spoilers. The line shoots up from four and a half to five and a half to six and a half

because people think the lions won't play for anything. But if you're paying any attention, you know the lions are going to go balls to the wall no matter what. So you might want to wait and see if you can get an even bigger number as the game nears kickoff if you know what's happening with Seattle. Yeah, and Matt just hit us on the slack about people parlaying these things together. Like different scenarios about different teams, how they're going to make the playoffs. And those exact scenarios need to happen for them to make it. I love doing that stuff. I'll never bet Seahawks to make the playoffs, whatever it is right now, plus 120.

I'll parlay the scenarios together because that's the better value. Last year is one of the, not the funnest year I can remember, but it's close to it and it sounds stupid, but that tie scenario in the last game of the year, that was a real bet that came down to the wire. They were in overtime. The clock was ticking down. There was a minute to go. And the legit scenario was there of them. The Raiders were going to run the clock out.

And the coach of the Chargers did something I don't understand. He took a time out, shot himself on the foot. They end up losing charges to the playoffs, yada, yada, yada. Same thing this year. I will do those weird bets with all of you. Like there are shows that are way more in depth on that kind of betting style. And people do write-ups too.

I think Action does a really good write-up about incentive betting, which is you bet certain player props for incentives. Obviously, the books have caught on to it, right? They bump the props up. Still do it. Like, they still, over the last three years doing it. I don't know if it was Sean that did a lot. Sean that did it last year, but one of our guys had an article where it was like just all every,

you could pick your own, pick your own bets, but I literally told you every single plan what their incentive was pretty much for why they were playing for what in the prop market. Same thing this year. Like shop for that stuff as well. It's obviously there's no foolproof plan, but it's been profitable over the last three years to me. So that's one of those where I just like, I'm going to look at it. I'm not going to bet every single thing people give out, but it's like, if it makes sense, if the matchup favorites, favorites it as well, yeah. Yeah, bet those different props on players, planning incentives, because that's a real thing.

These people are humans. They're friends. I mean, everyone knows that famous clip of Brady talking to Gronk, and Gronk saying, like, I need two more catches to hit the million dollar and Gronks said, I got you, baby. Brady said, I got you. And they let me go in back-to-back plays and they go off the field. And that was it for them for the season.

So definitely something to keep an eye out. It's fun bet on that and the playoff scenarios. Yeah, no, it's totally true. And we did have a story about that and we'll update that for this year. What about luck, You got anything good for me this week, the luck rankings? Because you guys killed it last week with that. I haven't seen the luck rankings yet this week.

But I did cut you off with the about Stucky in their show. We were talking about the Lions and the Packers. They're with us. They're against us. They were with us on the Lions, but also Stucky was making the really good point that it might be worth waiting because you might get a better number later in the day. It probably won't go down. It won't go down to.

Like it won't go below four. It could, but I don't think I'll go below three and a half. Right. So if you want to wait, you'll still get the lines at a good number. And you might get them at a better number depending on what happens. It was their point. No update for the Lunk rankings yet. All right.

So the other game that you got Sharp was, I'm sorry. What I was going to say about the luck rankings, though, is if you've been tracking it, it's 100% something to keep your eye on for the playoffs. Because that stuff does matter in the playoffs. Like teams, you'll see that like they've, not that Green Base turned their luck,

But you've kind of seen that these last couple weeks, they were a team that was crazy unlucky if you followed our charts all season. And these last couple weeks, it's kind of regressed back to the meme for them where they're getting luckier. Things are bouncing Green Bay's way. So definitely something to follow in the playoffs. Check out the luck rankings. Looking to get more out of the NFL this season.

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It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm surprised as you are that, people haven't come in on the Browns, given the trends of Mike Tomlin as a favorite, given how. Spoiler trend. Spoiler trend, given that it's divisional teams. The number. This division specifically, these games end up being, the underdogs end up playing really

well in these games. So I'm still comfortable with the Browns. Yeah. And I just thought it was interesting where the pros I did talk to, they're like us. They've come in on the Browns at two and a half. coming on two. Some of them even got threes. I want to touch three for a little bit.

But I just think two and a half is a great number for this game that we know exactly what's going to be. It's just going to be a close slug it out game. That's going to come down to a field goal. And two and a half, we've seen it plenty of times now, these weird scores, these 1413s, these, you know, really random games and these missed extra points. So the two and a half does matter. The fact that they're not getting the three, though, is kind of telling. Like, it feels like they know the big money will come. in if it touches three again.

So they just keep leaving at two, two and a half. One of those where, if we were doing our contest pick this week, I guarantee you it would be one over five. It's just it's a game I really like. It's a spot I really like. And it's not that it feels right that Pittsburgh won't make the playoffs, but it feels like they are definitely, them are the Patriots getting the seventh seed.

They feel like a seven seed team. They're both teams with tons of question marks that are toughest shit, that has really good coaching, right? Tomlin Belichick, they'll drag these corpse of a team across that finish line. It's tough going against Tomlin, but I feel like Chad nailed it where it's like we love Tomlin as a dog, especially at home. Usually we fade them in these spots where they're kind of the public darling as a favorite playing against a team that no one's really taking. So we love the Browns.

Let's do a facsimile of five. We love the Browns. We would have Titans in, and we could talk about that game again if you want. Yeah, yeah. Well, I was going to get, I was going to, that was going to be my last one, but let's talk about it now. It's moved from six and a half to six. I'm not uncomfortable betting on Josh Dobbs. I'm not uncomfortable betting against the Jags in this spot.

For every bad look that the Titans had against the Cowboys, that's how good the Jags have looked against equally bad teams. during their streak. Including they beat the Titans handily on the road. But the Titans were really injured and in bad shape defensively. I like a six-point spread as an underdog for Mike Vrable, who covers it a 70% clip as a dog of three or more in his career. I like a team that's now basically took a buy last week and is totally healthy.

I like Josh Dobbs, who was serviceable against the Calais. Cowboys having a chance to practice for two weeks with the first team. I like the circumstances here. Yeah, and it's also that position that Jaguars I've never been in before. This is going to be a legit playoff game, total playoff feel for this matchup. And like you just said, the variable factor so huge to me. Like I get where people are coming from that they, they haven't been the same old Tennessee team these last couple weeks, right? They just, they're really disappointed, especially better.

I know some really smart groups that, you know, they've made a lot of money off Rable these last couple years, bent him when the public just kept undervaluing him as a coach and this defense. And Tainahill was part of that too, right? Tainahill, that whole run with him and A.J. Brown with Derek Kennedy, that was a nice combo they had for those last three years. We saw them adjust this year. They really didn't have any passing game, and they were still covering these games. I mean, that middle of the season was crazy. I'll never forget it.

I think it was week two. They got blown out by Matt Mitchell's bill. I mean, the bills steamrolled them in a prime time game. We go, all right, Tennessee is a joke. Like, they're going to be bad all year. I think they won seven straight. Like something crazy like that where that's kind of the variable makeup of this team. And here we are sitting again where they're left for dead.

I mean, every pro I talked to, they've come in on the seven. They came on the six and a half. They've come in on the six. Just makes sense they're going to be all betting this because I feel like Chad nailed it. Like the Jaguars, they're the ones feeling their pressure. I feel like Tennessee team's going to have no pressure here, especially with variable coach of them. They're just, they are that team.

And I would say if I didn't have such an emotional big bet, I mean, we could talk about hedging our position too here at the end of this. But it's one of these games where I really do want to take Tennessee's money line. Like the math works out. It's profitable to take. Vrable is a dog on the money line. He usually wins and covers. But I won't do it because I do think the number's fair.

Where it's like, this should be three and a half. So I'll take the number. And I assume the Jags will win by a field. That's what I haven't modeled out at. And the biggest thing is the hedging chat. I don't know if you want to talk about that now. Yeah. This game, shout out to our diehard fans have believed in it with us.

The Jaguars, we talked about it all year. Only a couple of you guys bet it, and I got it. I completely understand where people are coming from where it's just, well, guys will see it this off season. We're going to talk about teams that are gross, and it's impossible to really see it because you're just so tuned into what happened the year before and what you saw the year before. but it all lined up.

Like we had a second year QB, the first pick overall. We had a new head coach and a head coach that was light years better than the previous head coach. And a team with a ton of talent. So did we get lucky as hell that they happen to be in the AFC South? Yes. Any other division, they wouldn't have a chance at this point. But that was also the crazy part of the time we were talking about them at 8 to 1 and 9 to 1 to win this division. It was the Colton Tennessee's division.

Like you look back now, it's just crazy to think how high, even like listening back to our show, how funny it was us talking about. Not that we were respected the Colts so much, but we understood why people were betting them, right? They just made sense. And that ugly, that ugly, ugly dog, that Jaguars team, they were just sitting there. So for hedging, this is the dream scenario.

You guys don't know exactly what a pro does. This is exactly what I'll do. I have tons of money invested, but we'll keep it simplified, well, just as if I have one unit on it. So if you have one unit, let's just say eight to one or you can do seven to one if people really won if you got even a worse number. But eight to one, it makes it simpler. So you bet 100, you win 800, right? That's how that works.

You get something in that position, eight to one. The hedging, when you have a dog like you do with Tennessee at six and a half for six, you can take four units and put it on the six. And you're trying to have the dream scenario of the Jaguars win, but they win by under six. So you win both bets. You win them the division and you win. your hedge because they cover the number. And I mean, all the top of my head, the best hedge I've ever seen ever play out was last year's Super Bowl.

All these pros, these really smart guys, all had the Rams for the Super Bowl. They had bet it all year. The Super Bowl came. What they do? They took the four. They took the three and a half with the Bengals. So right there, they were key, they're already covered on their hedge. And they won both bets.

The Rams went outright by three. they won their hedge on the vangles. So that's what, as a pro, I'm building a bankroll. That's what I do. If you're someone that just has high risk, you can do nothing. If you think the Jags are going to win, you can do nothing. I just would at least try to get your money back and play it safe and maybe put one or two units on the six and a half with Tennessee.

Like that's just an easy way to make sure you get your money back and a little profit. But I don't know. I always feel weird telling people exactly what do their money. But that's what I do. Like I always take the middle hedge where I always try to get exactly. my money back and halfway where it's like no matter what I'm either going to win 12 units or I'm going to win whatever it works out to four units it's just I just try to always play that middle part where I'm always going to get money back instead of let my money run

I'm listening to you and this is amazing and fascinating and while you were talking about it I had forgotten what I how much money I put on the Jags to win the to win the division. So I was just checking it. And I happened to put exactly the same amount on the Jags to win the division as I did on the Titans at plus six and a half.

There you go. But yeah, it's just, I always tell people that people that always say like hedgings for losers for suckers. That's just, that's like a stupid like, oh, be a man kind of phrase where if you got the money to burn, yeah, don't hedge.

Like, who cares? But if you're like taking this series, you want to learn how to build a bankroll, this is it. Like, you literally are making these bets in August to set yourself up for a profit down the road to build up your bankroll. So it's just one of those things

where we talk all the time about taking positions and this is one of them that worked out. Now, I don't know if you want to do it. I'm guessing we're going to do it next Tuesday. We'll do a full recap of that whole August show. Yeah, let's get through. We got to get through this regular season. Those regular.

And make sure it's official. official, right? Because, like, you know, we had the Bears under jets, jets under, lions over. Those were the three big ones, I think. We'll talk about all that next week once everything's paid out. I meant two where we went one through seven for the NFC AFC and like those bets through that too. Yeah. Totally. Bills, it sucks. You guys are getting the two C, whatever it is. If the chiefs win this week, they get the one seed. But they have to let them play a neutral side. If it's Bill's Chiefs in the conference championship game, they can't give the Chiefs to me.

They couldn't give the Chiefs home field. That just does not feel right, twice versus the bill. So split it down the middle, let them play on a neutral site. Their fans can go 50-50, whatever it is, fill it up. That to me is the fairest thing because, yes, the Chiefs earned being the one seed. They played well all year. They were in arguably a tougher division, whatever you want to say. The bills should not be punished for something completely out of their hands.

So I've been thinking about it all the time because it is the most impossible scenario ever. To me, they were never going to play that a game ever. again. Once the bills flew home, that was over. That game was over. They're ever going to play that again. But hopefully since he wins this week, whatever it may be so they can get that three seed. The bills get the two seed. Chiefs get the one seed. Let them play on neutral field if they both make it. If not, if the bills lose, they stumble and they're not in the conference championship, yes, Chiefs can be the home team. But I do believe that's the only fair way where it's like, it's such an out-of-this-world experience. There's no book on what to do here. That just seems fair. Give them a

neutral site. They both deserve that. They're both the two best teams and the AFC. Can we talk about the Rams for a second? Yeah. Again, we have no choice and we have to bet. We have to bet the Rams. Yeah, we don't want to choice. It lines up with every scenario. It lines up with teams that have been blown out, being undervalued. It lines up with teams that had a big win, being overvalued. And their seesaw team. Good one week, bad the next, good one week. It lines up with teams potentially being eliminated versus teams that are already out. Like, there's just a seesall team. There's just no reason not to bet the Rams here. I hate it. We can't help it.

I mean, it's making me feel a little better, though, knowing the numbers moved. It moved off the six and a half down to six, which is like, all right, good. At least the pros are betting it with us because it was a little spooky there. I was just sitting there at six and a half. I'm like, why is this number not moving? Like, that's same thing to Tennessee. It's like these numbers feel inflated just because of what happened last week. We're buying the value.

It's just, can me and Chad, no, the Rams guys have all booked their vacation? They're completely going to quit on this game? No, we can't. But we know the math works out of the 60% spoiler. This is a spoiler game. It's a divisional rivalry. Can't help it, Chad. Like you said, we cannot help it.

We have to bet the six and a half. It was contest six and a half. I'd bet it. Six might pause, but I'm still bent up, like personally. I'd still take the six. But for contest plays, I'd want that half. I want that six and a half. This is likely big balls better the week.

Really? Is this or one other game that is on my mind? Let's say we've got four games we've decided on right now. Browns at the lines that currently exist. Browns 2 and a half, Titans 6, Rams 6 and a half, lions 4 and a half. Do you feel good about those? I thought our big ball is going to be the Saints. It makes me sick.

I was going to recommend the Rams or the Cardinals. All right. If I had to pick between the other days, I'd 100% go Rams. Nobody wants to bet the Rams. That's true. Nobody in the public does. Wise guys do. But to me, the Saints, neither of us feel strongly about the Saints.

Like, I lean Panthers at 3.5. I know. I feel like that's the play where it's like, I just didn't really view that one as a great one. But it's like the more I'm thinking about it's just like, man, that's going to take. It feels like the bucks last week. It takes balls to go against Carolina as a dog. Carolina is a good team. Takes more balls to bet on the Rams at 6.5 after what you've seen.

I 100% agree with that. Rams plus six and a half. And you're right, Denver's already shifted to minus two now. Yeah, I mean, that lines, you know, it was running down. Increased juice at Banduel at two and a half. So to be honest, at two and a half with the increased juice, I didn't bet it. I decided, you know what? No.

I'm on the Broncos. I'm riding with the Broncos. Let's ride Broncos. That's just a great number of Herbert does play. I know. I know. I might have missed. I might have missed. I don't know. Sometimes it's so complicated, Simon.

What do we think about, we need to pick a fifth game? I promised to fans, I wouldn't do the Colts. I had too many complaints. I won't do it. I won't do it. That was one of those things. They make our big balls, but I'm not doing it, people. Relax. People just got real upset. They're like, but they've quit. I know. I've said they quit, and we won't do it. It's painful, though, because I do love the Colts.

But we'll stay away. We'll stay away. I think we got to do one of the two big spread games, either the Giants, Eagles, or the Cardinals Niners, or the Sam Howell led commanders at plus seven. Couldn't run away faster from that game. Because I was like, I love them, especially if it was going to be iniqui, but even when I heard they were going to do like a back and forth,

like he'll play a couple snaps, and Sam was going to come in. I basically bought out positions at five and a half. I was just like, there's no way. I'm letting them screw around with Dallas. they want that game. Like, the more I read, it seems like Dallas is like really actually playing that game straight, where they want to win it because they still think they can get that one seed.

So, or not the one seat, but win the division. Giants or Arizona? Because it is a coin flip. I mean, I truthfully, I've only bet Arizona. I haven't bet the Giants yet. So I don't feel great about either. I'll be honest. Like the Giants, I feel great about the money line because I do think they could try to play spoiler.

But it's also the fear of they really are going to sit everyone. And it's all. I think they're going to sit everyone. You know, they might already be prepping for the Vikings, or they know that they're going to be facing, or they're going to be facing the Eagles. So why show them anything? And there's no Hopkins.

You know that right for Arizona. Hopkins is sitting out. 14 is just a big number. It's too big of a number in the NFL. That's fair. Cardinals. Yeah, we got it. I guess.

It's the last week of the year. and this is just a massive number. When do you see a 14 point spread? It's rare. It feels different with the Giants than with the Cardinals. The Cardinals can let it all fly, right? Yeah. Whereas like the Giants have reason to hold back.

All right, I'll be talked to it. Because, like, honestly, I've already bet the Cardinals I took, because I did think it was going to come down. I'm with you. I think the 14 is egregious. Like, this should be closer at 12 and a half, 13. just a little nerve wreck and it has a move. They just shows you the pros are kind of avoiding these big ass spreads, I guess.

I know one smart group that came in on the Eagles at 13 and 13 and a half, but that's it. Like, I don't know anyone else that's bet these games, really. But I'll take you with the 14 with each other. I'm going to put that down. Let's do it. Let's do it. So what five do you have marked?

One more thing. You brought up the player incentive. betting on those props. Action Network is working on the story right now. It should be up by the end of the day. There's multiple people working on it. I am told in real time. So,

quick up. I just got a message from Matt Mitchell about a couple of the listeners took the bears the first half I gave out. Yeah. Please buy out. I refuse to have money on Nathan Peterman. I'll buy out on that. I took a bad number too.

I think I took like four and a half or four with the Vikings. Obviously, the line had moved once the Peterman news came out. But yeah, completely bought out of that position. It's a dead bet. I mean, I tried to get advantage. I thought I was going to be Justin Fields. Obviously, when that news came out, it wasn't him. The line moved.

Can't do it. Cannot bet on Peterman, even a first half bet. So, yeah, if you took it, I would buy out. I already did. Are five right now Browns plus two and a half, Titans plus six, Rams plus six and a half. Lions plus four and a half, cards plus 14. Foxhole, Browns plus two and a half, Titans plus six and a half.

Is Simon says, exact decision, Broncos plus three and a half. Chose that on Tuesday. Big balls, Rams, six and a half. Scooch roulette, it all comes down to this week. Reminder. Some people ask me on Twitter sometimes, can you explain the concept of Scrolet? Bob Scucci, long time Las Vegas casino executive. I've known the guy for 25 years.

I wrote a book called The Odds in 1999 about guys who bet on sports for a living. I spent six months in Vegas, was with professional betters and with bookmakers. They were all sort of trying to beat each other in a game. And one of the bookmakers who I profiled was Bob Scucci, who was one of the bookmakers at the Stardust Hotel, which was the place making all the lines at the time pre sort of internet days, right when the internet was becoming a thing. Scooch then came on and was with me on the podcast of DSPN for years. On the podcast here, he got elevated into bigger jobs, wasn't really following week to week, what's happening in the lines anymore. But he and I played a game every

week called Scoot Roulette, where he picked a game and I picked a game and went head to head. Simon and I have brought that back to honor Bob Scootie and his contributions to the world of sports betting. So we go head to head all season long. One guy. game. When all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play. Scooch Roulette. Simon, I think I won last week.

You did. So I get to choose first, and I think we're tied? We are. This is for all the marbles, unless we keep doing it in playoffs. It's all the marbles right here. I am going to go with, Jesus Christ, I think I'm going to go with I can't believe I'm saying this, but I look at this and feel like the best value,

best in it. I'm going with the Browns plus two and a half. That's smart. I'll go out of our team, Tennessee, give me plus six. I came down to the Browns and the Rams. Yeah, I just knew coming in this week, Tennessee is going to be one of my bigger bets.

It's just, no, that's, I can't help it. It's nothing personal, Jaguars. I love you guys. but it's a good number. All righty. We did miss Tampa Bay in Atlanta on Tuesday. Someone pointed that out on Twitter as well.

Yeah. Sometimes I'm looking at the schedule on my screen and in the app and sometimes they don't line up and I think I missed the game. I was going to say, I'd already been up at that point for 18 hours. And Chad usually goes about at 8. So that was a late show for the boys. Exactly. We were way off on that day.

Yeah. I had to go back and listen because I didn't remember a thing I said on that show. It was the real time that happens. Yeah, I was, I think I was asleep midway through. The fact that I've already, I don't know, probably close to 50K now runout bet on Atlanta for most of these guys. So they like Atlanta. I'll take Atlanta with them. It just, it makes sense where they're coming from, right?

Atlanta, they have a bunch of guys that try-hards. They're going to play their starters. We expect Tampa not to play that many starters, them to rest. they rest a couple of key guys in their defense. Atlanta will be able to run it all over them. Like Atlanta is still business as usual for this Falcons team. So I kind of wanted to stay away from it because I was so pissed at them for burning us last week. But got to move on.

It's a new week. Atlanta is the right side. So it won't be one of my five bigger bets, but I'm just going to follow the pros in bed Atlanta here. Your dog, your dog likes my dog. Round Robin. Round Robin. Every time Evan tweets out, it's been historically hard. now for nine weeks, been in the underdog's money line.

Whoever's still doing these with us, it's been brutal. We just keep getting these games, too. We're leading with these dogs all game, and they'll just lose it at the very end. So we still cover, but it's not helping our money line around Robbins out at all. Four of the games I would take are the ones we bet. Yeah. Like Browns, Titans, Rams, lions.

I agree with all of them. The long-suffering Chicago Bear fans, let's throw Houston in there. The Bears can get the number one pick The Texans I think have to lose Texans, if Texans win You guys lose you get the number one pick They're two and 13 and one You guys are three and 13

So they would have whatever Half a win more than you guys So yeah exactly We'll do that for Chad then We'll throw in Houston Houston Big Houston to win fans Houston Browns

Titans Rams Lions Are the five Money Lion, round Robin, parley. Love it. And if you hate that bit, the Houston pick, the Rams one, like Chad was saying, I love that one. All right.

Browns are the foxhole at plus two and a half. Simon says is Titans plus six and a half. Exact decision. Remember, we set it on Tuesday. So we liked Browns plus three and a half. That line is now Browns minus two. Big balls, Rams, plus six and a half. Scoutch roulette.

Titans plus six. Browns plus two and a half. Simon likes the Titans. Chad likes the Browns. Money Lion around Robin. Texans. Browns. Titans.

Rams. Lions. We're good to go. This has been the favorite podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter. Producer is Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify.

wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Listen all the way through. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800

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