The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 2

Episode Date: September 12, 2024

Can the Cowboys roll the Saints at home? Is Burrow healthy enough to shock Kansas City? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NF slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more.  Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrating. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show

on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast, podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host Kier Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor it? It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you

need to listen to learn the hard way on the iha radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet three six five we are part of the volume podcast network i am chad millman chief content officer of the action network i am live from the tommy john studio here in my hotel room in oxford mississippi we'll get to that and i'm joining as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing? Brother, I'm going to tell you a quick story.

I'm in Oxford. What are you doing in Oxford? I'm in Oxford because a good buddy in mine, his name is Wright Thompson. Brilliant writer. He's been to ESPN for a long time. He's written some of the most legendary stories for ESPN, from the Johnny Mansell story to the Tigerwood story, to the Michael Jordan story. we once together came up with an idea that he would do an entire issue of ESP in the magazine about how sports helped New Orleans heal after Katrina, the 10 years after Katrina.

He's got a big book coming out called The Barn. It's not about sports. It's about Emmett Till, the murder of Emmett Till here in Mississippi, and where it right is from. So a bunch of us flew down in Mississippi to surprise him for a mini book party, right? And we were hanging out at Wrights last night. And if you are someone who likes long-form storytelling and magazine writing, going back to the GQ Esquire Days for an audience that today is ever shrinking. But back then, like, it was, you know, what you wanted to be and do with your life, which I was lucky enough to get to do in different ways as an editor. It was a great night.

A bunch of us were hanging out at Wright's time. telling old stories, whatever. But this is a group that goes pretty hard. And it was late at night when I got back to my hotel. And as you know, I'm basically blind when I take out my contacts. Cannot see a thing. Get to my hotel last night. All the lights are on.

And when you get into a hotel, like the nightstand lights are on and they have different switches. And overhead lights have different switches. And hallway lights have switches and bathrooms have switches. I took in my context before I turned off any of the lights and I find the switches for everything except one overhead light, the overhead light cannot find the switch. I'm looking around. I have to feel the walls because I'm totally blind at this point. Cannot find them?

I'm hitting every switch. It's just the same hallway bathroom for your lights that keep coming on and off. I'm like, I don't know what to do. I called the front desk. It's not at a time at night where like there's much. multiple people on the front desk. It's late night, early morning. I call the front desk.

I'm like, I got a strange question. I promise you I'm going to remember this in the morning. Like, I'm not crazy. I cannot find the light switch from my room. Do you have any idea where they keep the light switch for the overhead lights in these rooms? He's like, you mean like, do I have a map of the electrical of the room? I'm like, I know it's not ideal. And then I realized he may have thought I was trying to get him up to my room at one o'clock in the morning in the middle of Oxford, Mississippi.

And like, my creative way of doing it was saying, I can't find my light switch. So I said, you know what? I'll figure it out. I hung up the phone. And then I said to myself, I'm going to have to sleep with the light on all night. you're just going to have to do it. You can't find the light switch. And then I gave myself a newt Rackney speech and I said,

nope, I can find this light switch. So once again, I felt around every single wall. I hit all the same light switches. I finally found the light switch right next to the thermostat for the room. It looked exactly like the thermostat. So it wasn't entirely on me. I think it's bad design. But I did find the light switch and I did get to go to sleep.

No, I'm with you on the hotel lights. I've been in hotels where there are no switches, right? They just assume you touch the lamps and the lamps go off now. Yes. That new technology really threw me for a loop because I had the same thing. I had to call it down an ass, but. Oh, my God. So it's not just me.

I was waiting for you to say that you hit enough switches. All of a sudden your bed started spinning in circles and it was just like love room. My bed didn't need a switch to start spinning. I can tell you that right now. All right, listen, let's get into it, brother. We got a lot to talk about. Today is our NFL week two best bets episode where Simon and I narrowed on our five picks in the favorites podcast, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now at favorites.com. We will also get to our Foxhole and Tommy John, Big Balls, Bet of the Week, our survivor, Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line underdog parlay plus by popular demand.

We didn't do the Round Robin money line underdog parley last week. We will do it again this week. Have no fear. Betts are rolling in lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as our old friend. And volume podcast boss, Colin Coward likes to say there's a sea of money out there. Because there's a sea of money out there.

As a reminder, favorites pot is presented by Bet365. And this just in new Bet365 customers. Now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 in place a bet for $5 to get $200. dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinated at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona,

Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 180-d bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Paveits podcast, pick them, $100,000 pro football, pick-em contest. presented by Bet365. If you forgot to sign up, you still got time.

We dropped everyone's worst score after week five. 100K in cash prize is still up for grabs. Sign up. Favorites.actionnetwork.com. As always, Simon, on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear all the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.

That's how inside we are. Lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. And we got a lot of calls this week, Simon. Let's do it. Sharp calls.

Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, I would say the pros are feeling really good at him of this week, Chad. They think that the public is doing exactly what they do every year, right? They're overreacting to the previous week.

And you're getting a lot of value on these lines. And we've seen just since our Tuesday show, a lot of movement, right? So let's start off of the game we loved Denver. We knew that that was a good spot. We knew the pros would like it. That number was going up to three and a half. Now it's down to two to half, almost every book, right, Chad? So no shocker there.

Cincinnati Bengals the line. We loved six, six and a half. It's down to five, five and a half, a lot of books. Another position that the pros are feeling the same way we do, right? It's a little bit of an overreaction. We're all worried about Joe Burroughs wrist, right? I don't think anyone's overlooking that spot. It just feels like they weren't as bad as people perceived their previous week.

and now this line's moved too much. I'm shocked that this is dipped down to five. Just because what we talked about, right, Chad? This is going to be the most teased game of the week, right? Oh, yeah. Everyone's teasing this. So pretty shocking that numbers come down so much. Let's keep it going to a game.

We didn't really talk about. I like the 49ers every probably talked to. They like Minnesota once again. So they liked them last week against the Giants. They like them again against his 49ers team. It's pretty simple, right? 49ers historically have struggled in Minnesota. It's a short week.

They're on the road to 49ers. So I get it. I just think they're overlooking that, you know, this is one of the best defenses in football, one of the best run blocking schemes in football, playing against a team that they overachieved right against that Giants team. They only really scored 21 points on offense. Like, I just think people are going a little too crazy with the San Antonio love.

Oh, yeah, we're going deep into that game. I think I'm with you, like I'm in love with the 49ers right now. Another favorite, though, that the pros love, Chad, that we talked a little bit about, we were a little unsure of the number, Detroit. I mean, I've seen this now. I'll get up to a couple of books and minus eight. It's gone down back to minus seven and a half. The pros are not scared about taking that seven and a half.

They love Detroit in this spot against a banged up. Buck's team that I think people are a little overrating them a little bit, right? Because they just played the worst defense on football. Happy for Baker to get his flowers for a week. We assume he comes crashing down to Earth here. That's what the professionals are looking at. We'll keep it really quick here. Panthers.

Pros love Panthers. No one wants to fucking hear it. I get it. We'll keep it moving off that one. Me and you talk about the Raiders, right? That number touched 10. It's back down to eight and a half. I'm probably just because I read my man Evans article,

we're probably going to put them in our survivor pool just because the Ravens historically. They don't lose in this spot. And the number tells another story of these teams tend to bounce back at home as big favorites, just winning outright, right? We're not talking about spread. So pretty interesting. The pros have come in so heavy.

It's back down to eight and a half, which again, we talk all the time. That's a key tease number now, right? So the books are letting people tease down at two and a half. That's a big deal. So pretty interesting, that number has moved so much. Last one, again, me and you love. And I think it might end up as one of our five.

The professionals love Green Bay here, Chad. They are loving Green Bay. That number was up to three and a half. It is down to two and a half of most books at this point. So it could be because LaFleur left the door open for Jordan Love coming back. I think that's a smokescreen. I think we're really betting this on LaFleur. This team is a dog against,

and then consistent Anthony Richardson, right? Like it kind of feels like I stole one last week. I do feel more comfortable to taking Green Bay here. So pretty shocking though, the pros have come in so heavy that despite all the public money coming in on this cold steam, it has gone from three and a half down to two and a half, Chad, crossing two key numbers. That's like we're going to have to get into it.

There's no doubt about it. I will say one thing about the Panthers. You know how much I love Stucky and Raybon on the Action Network podcast and their Sunday six-packed. that they do that's live on YouTube, Wednesday nights, that's part of the podcast that comes out Thursdays. Stucky put the Panthers in, you did. He put him in their six-pack.

We're not gonna do that, I can promise you right now. Yeah. A couple things to keep in mind because there are certain trends that I don't wanna repeat every single time, but they are applicable to a lot of the games we're gonna talk about. In weeks one and two, one to five and a half point underdogs, 77, 44, and 3, 64% since 2018.

You know, it's 4 and 8 in week one. So should we expect a regression? Probably. There's usually overreaction. It's overreaction week. Favorites of 1 to 3.5. Again, 43% in September the past 20 years. In the first three weeks, 42% since 2014.

Flipside, 8 and 4%. in week one. So we're definitely going to have some conversation here about the opportunities. Another opportunity to buy low this week over the past 20 years when two winless teams meet. The underdog is 66% against the spread. In week two, it's 68%. If two teams are winless, it almost always makes sense to take the points. This week, it's a couple of teams we talked about. Giants, the Packers, the Browns, the Raiders, and the Titans, which we talked about the other day. All right, here we go. First game up, we're going to talk about a favorite.

I love it. You love it. I think it's going to be in our five. Dallas Cowboys, six and a half, over the Saints. Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart of the lone star state is a galaxy of extraordinary football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys. We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it.

It's moved to six and a half almost immediately. I've been thinking a lot about this game, especially DAC. Dak is a favorite of six or more. 31, 13 and 1 against the spread, 18 and 9. Think about that. 311, 13 and 1 against the spread. That's 71%. 18 and 9 since 2021.

It's his spot. And like Dennis Allen, he is, as we know, terrible. He's been an underdog of a field goal or more 33 times in his career. He'll be upset just five times. That's like Scott Winnihan and Rod Marinelli. That's who his company is. So book it, give it to me. Don't care.

Dallas, six, six and a half in the contest. We won a favorite. This is one of them. Yeah, right there with you, Chad. I love Dallas and, you know, some professionals come in on the Saints. I think the reasoning is sound of just, you know, this team got off to a hot start. Who's to say they can't carry this over and they have a new identity coming to this season, right? Their car, he's learned a new offense.

Maybe he's flourishing in this new offense. My rebuttal is what I think when you were both thinking, chat. That was just Carolina, right? They just caught a really bad team there in week one that was underprepared. And they showed out, I can't say the same with this Dallas team. They're prepared. and even reading through Evans article, I mean, McCarthy is incredible in week too. Like apparently he's really good at getting his teams up for these early games.

So I like the matchup here. And I do think Dallas didn't play that great of a game against the Browns, right? I think there was a lot they could work on this upcoming week for them to grow and get better. And I can't say the same for the Saints. Like, you know they're just going to be feeling themselves all week. They're just not a team used to hanging 50 points, right, Chad? So this is such a typical letdown spot, especially what do you even talk about? it man they got real serious flooding going right now in new Orleans me and you always talk about

this it's hard to think these players minds won't be in other places right so uh that's another added thing to this and then just on the field stuff i like the match up right there's a bunch of stuff offensively this dallas team could do to attack the saints defense and then we flip to the defensive side the saints offensive line is better than i gave them credit for heading to the season like they had a couple unknown guys i still think on the outside their tackle positions that I mean, the Cowboys should be able to feed. So Derek Carr, we know how he struggles when he's got guys around his feet. He does not like to have push on the outside.

So, yeah, Chad, if this is going to be our one favorite, maybe we'll get a second favorite in there. I definitely wanted it to be Dallas this week. I just love Dallas in the spot. Historically, we played Dak as these big favorites at home, and it's been good to us. They are the Dallas Cowboys, a freewheeling, all-American Star Kiss team. We just talked about the Raiders and the Ravens.

A lot of trends to back the Raiders here. It's moved down. It was nine and a half on Monday, on Tuesday when we did the show. Like you said, it got up to 10. Now it's back down to eight and a half. Money from the wise guys clearly coming on the Raiders. I don't want to play the Raiders. We're betting the number, not what we've seen on the team.

And I have no faith in this team right now, especially in a bounce back spot for the Ravens who are going to be at home, perfect spot for Lamar, just feels like we're walking into a trap there. And you're not wrong. I think the public has your sentiment right. I think it's only about 10% of the money and I don't know, less than 20% of the bets right now are on this Raiders team. And for good reason, right, the coach let them down. They punted two, they took a field goal at fourth and one and they punted out fourth and one and the Chargers territory. I just think people are a little hesitant now with this team. They're, they're a little unsure. So that's

fine. Just because I think this is going to be our survivor pick. So it's like, you know, I'm happy going on to them. My 10 ticket, my 9.5 ticket. If this is one ugly dog, we're not forcing it. There's a couple other ugly dogs we're about to force it anyway. So I get your hesitation, but yeah, I do like the radar side in this one. Yeah, we have so many ugly dogs that we're going to ask people to bet. Just because we're not asking people to bet the Panthers doesn't mean we're not going to ask of people to do horrible, disgusting things.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only. legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack

all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people

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I'm not qualified to get. give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura podcast network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcasts.

One of those horrible, disgusting things, New York Jets, currently three and a half point favorites at the Tennessee Titans. We talked about the Jets the other day. This is an incredible bounceback spot for Aaron Rogers. There are a lot of reasons to love Aaron Rogers here. After a straight up loss, he's 63% against the spread. When it's like a bounce back game happens for Rogers in week two or three, he's six, one and one against the spread. But non-Rogers trends, and this is going to come up a couple of times with games that we like the underdog.

Forget about all the other trends that I mentioned to the top, which the Titans fit. Teams with fewer than 25 minutes of possession in a week are six in week one, are six and 20. against the spread in week two. That's 19%. One of those teams, the New York Jets. The Titans did not allow an offensive touchdown. The Jets defense was on the field

for a million plays getting chewed up by the Niners and has a short week. Teams that open at plus four or higher at home, weeks one and two, 60% against the spread the last 20 years. teams that open plus four are higher at home after losing game one against the spread 64% since 2020.

I'm saying, do we bet the Titans here? No, I wouldn't put them as one of our five. I just can't get there with this Titans team. I just have to make questions about the coaching and Will Levis. So everything you just said is so true. If you want to fade Rogers, I don't hate it. Chad just pretty much broke it down for you why you should, right? Their defense, how can they recover?

in six days on a road game when they just played that many snaps on defense. And on the flip side, they have a lot of stuff to work out offensively, right? They don't really have an identity, but I still think we're getting a good number here just because the Jets just played when maybe the best team in the NFC. Like, it's just, I don't know. I'm still, I'm still drinking the Jets Kool-Aid and I'm still kind of off this Tennessee team. So everything you said there, like everything my body wants me to take Tennessee, but my numbers say this should be my minus four. It's now minus three and a half. Technically, I like the Jets, but I'm with you.

I don't want to put this game. I just, I don't want to bet in Rogers. And, you know, their offense, even watch, going back, watch, we're watching that 49ers game, you know, I don't know if it's Rogers calling the offense or who's calling their offense, but the fact that they, their mentality was we're going to spread out this 49ers defense or we're going to wear them out running the ball from left to right, right? They tried to get the ball on the outside, try to get those, you know, interior alignment, tired, the linebacker's tired. And every time it was like, okay, now it's third and eight.

So it's like you run it first down, you run it second down, now it's third and eight. And it's, I just didn't like how they didn't adjust off that way. It's just eventually they figured out, oh, we should just be having Rogers drop back in pass the ball the whole time. Like there are holes in this defense, none of which are running lanes. So I totally with you on the hesitation of this Jets team. And the sharp side, the professional side probably is Tennessee here, but I still think it's a good number on this Jets team. You're betting the Jets. I bet them.

I took him at my minus three and a half. Once I got the three and a half, I was like, all right, I'll take this number here. But obviously, after reading the Evan's article, I didn't feel great about it, right? All those trends point to take a Tennessee here. But yeah, I like the Jets at that number. All right. Well, we'll find out later in the show if it's one of your biggest bets. No.

For the week. You just mentioned San Francisco, San Francisco. This number has moved down from six to five and a half. I think we're both a little bit surprised by that because we love the Niners in this spot. I know there are going to be trends now that it's in that five and a half range that compel you to bet Minnesota. The professional betters have moved this down. You know, I want to get your opinion, but I do think there's some data to back betting Shanahan specifically in this spot that for me overrides some of the other stuff that is just more broad about underdogs in this spot. but give me your thoughts.

Yeah, historically Shannon does well against teams he lost to in the previous meeting, and this would classify as one of those spots, right? So I don't know if people remember the last time they played, it was one of the most bizarre games ever, right? I think Purdy got concussed. It was just a lot going on in that game. We're here.

I mean, this 49ers team just feels like they're humming. And even that Jets game, even going back watching it, they didn't play that clean. Like, they actually weren't that good as people think they were. That's how dominant this team is. I mean, the guy on many field goals they kicked, right? Normally, those are sevens, not threes.

Like, that's, that was probably the most shocking part to me. It was just not in rhythm, right? Ayuk had a couple really bad drops and just different things like that where the 49ers team feels like we didn't really see their best shot. Just that's how dominant this team is. And we didn't even talk about their new DC. I thought he did really well in his first game against the Jets. And it's like, even here, I like a lot of the matchups that they have

on the 49ers team against this Vikings team. So I can tell you, Chad, though, from the professional side, they do think that this is a big deal, right? That it's a short week. They're traveling to Minnesota against a team that the public does undervalue and that professionals coming to the season did value, right?

They like this Viking team coming to the season. So it's definitely a team that I think me and you both are down on. I still am down on. And I think that people are overreacting to what happened last week against the Giants, right? When you really break it down, we saw one good half from Sam Darnold and they put up, what, 21 points against the Giants defense, which we all think is not going to be that good of a defense.

So it's just like, okay, I'm not going to react to that. I still think the 49ers, even without McCaffrey, we still have them, what, putting up 31, 28 points here? And I don't really see how, you know, Sam Darnold in this defense puts up more than 25, 26 points. Like for them to get three touchdowns or two touchdowns in a field goal, that would be a really good day for this Vikings offense against this 49ers defense.

So I think we're getting really good value, you know, Chai. I make this number seven. The fact that it's down to five and a half crossing that key number of six. We love the Niners almost all the time. We love Shanahan. A couple things to think about with Shanahan. The number will catch up to them, though, because like even this, if they blow them out,

you know, the number is going to keep getting exponentially crazier as the weeks go over here. I mean, look, it's like same as Patrick Mahomes, right? Like, Richie Mahomes as a big favorite doesn't have a great record against the spread. But that's because the number's always so big because Patrick Mahomes is so special. So to me, Shanahan, we've talked about this a lot, one of the most special coaches in the NFL. Because it does make me a little weird where like this is definitely like the Giants last week. We're on, heavily on the public side with the public going against the pros here. Don't care. Don't care.

You know what it's time for? Give it to me. Time for our big balls, bed of the week. Presented by Tommy John. I was a little muted on that one because. I'm in the hotel. I don't want to freak people out. We are going with the Green Bay Packers. Wow. Green Bay Packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell called when we started talking about it on Tuesday, podcast malpractice. But look, and like the number's down to two and a half. So we obviously don't have the best of the number. It's at Bet365 at two and a half. There are other places that it's a three. There's a couple threes left, right? You know, it was at three and a half when we talked about it on Tuesday. The wise guys have come after. after it, they bet it to three, they bet it to two and a half. I think a lot of people are thinking

a couple things and we'll get to some of the trends, but overall, too much of a swing in the point spread from Jordan Love to Malik Willis. And so there's some buyback from the wise guy point of view, but what's your take here? Honestly, it feels like it was the right amount. I see it's come down a little bit here because of the spot. We're excited about the Colts and what they can be and what they're going to be this upcoming. season but green bay you know they were viewed as one of the better teams in all football and you know just because they lost Jordan love we expect LaFleur to kind of figure this out on the fly right i mean their run blocking was incredible against the eagles i think that will be able to

translate against this colts team that just gave up you know over 150 yards the houston running right so um there's a couple things i like here but i think you're right right the pros they've kind of dug in here because of LaFleafloor leaving the door open for love maybe playing in this game right that That to me is what the movement is. So me and Chad are taking this on the show at two and a half. You can grab it if you want, right? Because there are, like we just said, we're sponsored here, so we're giving out that two and a half.

There's threes out there. I'd grab that just in case on Sunday, if it's guaranteed it loves out, it is Malik. I think you agree, right, Chad? The public money will come in very heavy on this Colts team. So we could get back to have three and a half. The movement here though is warranted.

It's like, that was way too much. much like Chad just said and you know Green Bay they're going to be just as desperate as this Colts team right like no one wants to start oh and two that's why I love these kind of spots but they're going to be desperate at home with a nobody believes this mentality and you know open up the action app here let's I mean I can't imagine this number's going to be yeah right now it's only 19% of the money and about 25% of the bets right now is on this Green Bay team and it's gone from Chad just said from three and a half down to two and a half so So it's at two at a book I'm seeing here.

But that's pretty crazy. That much professional money is coming here. So we know we're not getting the best number giving out two and a half, but we talk all the time. Two and a half has become such a key number. I feel comfortable taking this and making it our big ball is better of the week. Look, we had two and a half. We had two and a half with the Colts last week.

Yeah, that was fun. And it worked out just swell. It wasn't a sweat in any way at all. It is our big balls, bed of the week. presented by Tommy John. Like, you know, Simon, there's no bigger fan of Tommy John. And when I am sweating through a hurricane while trying to figure out what games we want to bet in this upcoming week so we can try to get back to dominance in our favorites contest, there's no better pair of underwear to wear than the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It's the second

skin that I've always needed so I can be happy, whether I'm podcasting, whether I'm in terrible meetings, talking about something I don't want to talk about. Whatever the case, I'm going to be comfortable because I'm wearing my Tommy Johns. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you'll love Tommy John. Get 25% off your first order right now at Tommy John.com.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommy John.com. Flavits. A couple things I will say for this game just to sort of give people a little bit more confidence.

We've seen Action Network coming into the app taking the Packers. It's not just me and Simon talking crazy. Backups in their first start as an underdog. Past three seasons, 57% against the spread. The Colts have a secondary that is banged up, couldn't get off the field last week. Brenton Buckner did not practice yesterday.

Wednesday, really important practice day. Matt LaFleur, one of the second best coach against spread the past five years. Like the Colts, I mean, like the Jets, there's another one. The Colts only had 25 minutes of possession last week. Does not bode well for them against the spread.

So, we're on the Packers. Another game, though, that I think you and I might disagree on, Cleveland at Jacksonville, that number has stayed at three and a half. I think the wise guys are coming in on Cleveland. You still want to fade Cleveland or at least pass on this game. I think Jacksonville's defense is in trouble. I think they also have secondary issues. I think Cleveland's defense has something to prove against a Jacksonville team

that I don't think is as good as the Cowboys. Jacksonville blew a big league. lead. So it's a little bit of a reason to like Jacksonville. What's your thought here? Yeah, and it's down to three to a couple books. If you do want to take the Jacksonville, it just minus three. But Chad's right. Like the pros like Cleveland here for a bunch of reasons. Obviously, there's a lot of trends that point to taking Cleveland here and fading this Jacksonville team. But I'm just looking at on-field football stuff. And when I break down the film, there were so many great throws there for Trevor Lawrence.

Like he had guys in good positions and they were open. And I know for a fact, Doug Peterson is going back and watch a tape, and he's going to see all that. And, you know, we talk all the time. Cleveland, on the road, that team did not travel last year. And we said those trends don't carry over from year to year, right? We already saw that week one, right? They were not that same defense, week one at home,

against that Cowboys team as they were last year. I think that, you know, we've seen it. historically, Jim Schwartz has these years where he has an incredible dominant defense and then they fall off a cliff the following year, right? When teams kind of figure out how to go against his scheme and right now he's 0 for one. And like that really stands out to me where it's like I get what the pros are seeing here, but I think this Jack's team's not as bad as people say. Like even Chad here saying their defense didn't play that well. I mean, it was 177 midway through the third quarter against a high powered Miami defense at home. And again, that could be Miami not

being in rhythm and it took them a while to get into rhythm and eventually they did get up to 20 points right so um that's maybe i am overrating the chaguarize deeps a little bit but i love their front four like i really do especially their pass rushing and um like they're down to i think their fourth string tackle at this point this cleveland team with a guy in watson when i watch a tape he has happy feet he thinks guys were he thought guys were around him when they weren't even around him right He's getting rid of the ball super fast because he thought he was getting pressure. And they were actually holding up pretty well in the past block. And it's just everything feels broken with the Browns.

Even this week, they're not even talking about football, right? They're talking about all field stuff to these coaches and these other players about Watson, dealing with his BS. So it just feels like it's all bad for Cleveland. And the pros here, I don't know why they're coming in on this one. I feel like there's other games they would like better than step in this one. So, yeah, me and you definitely disagree. Chad likes Cleveland at three and a half.

I'm taking the Jaguars at minus three. I feel safer and happier taking that number. It's just like I could see one team getting rolled here and it's not the Jaguars. I could see Cleveland getting rolled in this matchup. I don't like when we disagree because it leads to confusion and dismay. It makes it harder for us to find the games

that we want to put into the contest. Like when it comes down to it, would we feel better taking Cleveland at three and a half in the contest or Green Bay at two and a half? half, right? Those are, those could be. Green Bay. No, no doubt. All right. Okay. Because that's what it'll end up being. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full

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Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Cincinnati at Kansas City, it's down to five and a half. Yeah. Simon says, he said get it at six. We got a couple of competing trends here. Patrick Mahomes is 48% against the spread is more than a field goal favorite.

Casey moved from three and a half to six. It's a huge number. Mahomes is 10 and 13 and 2 against the spread when the line moves two plus points towards his team. But like you said, I think before we came on the show, Joe Burrow right now, two and seven against the spread

in his first two games each season. Hasn't won in week two. we really have to be betting over a reaction because the Bengals were so bad and the Chiefs were so good and by the way, this is one of our three lunk ranking games. It's going to be in the contest.

We bet it at six. We're going to take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it. No, we hate this spot too. We get the people's pushback, but we already talked about it, right? The number had just moved too much. And, you know, if this is four and a half in our contest,

maybe we don't play it. If it's five and a half or maybe it goes up to six game, we can get that six and a half, I'd feel so comfortable taking it at that number. So you basically nailed it. The biggest thing, too, is, I mean, how many times you've seen the video of Joe Burrow flexing his wrist? Like, I've already seen it feels like 10 times

since that game on Sunday. So the public is all in on fading this team right now, this Bengals team. They are probably the bottom of the barrel. I'll open the action app right now and check. what the money is but um yeah so it's less than 30% of the money right now is on the bangles um less than 20% of the ticket is on the bangles so they're they've totally fallen off a cliff right i think people just got burned like we did in our survival pool by then last week it's easy to hate them

and doubt them and um you know i understand the worry here right because like we said the line and move three points based off really nothing and people's pushback is well it's moved that much because this Bengals team might be terrible, right? Their defense has a lot of new faces. They might just be bad compared to the years they were in the past. And if Joe Burrow isn't 100 percent, you know, no T. Higgins, you know, Chase doesn't have the right mindset. This is a, I get all the reasons why people are fading this team and taking them homes here. But me and chat, say all the time, like, we're just playing the numbers here and trying to not let the outside noise really affect this year.

So, yeah, four and a half, I don't see us putting this one in at five and a half. I could see it's having this game in R5. I don't see it getting to four and a half in the contest, so I think it will definitely be one of our fives. There's one game I want to just touch on quickly because it's moved so much, and that is Tampa Bay at Detroit. We really liked Detroit.

We thought that there was a little bit too much of an overreaction to what Tampa Bay had done in week one. But Detroit is a dominant team, and I love how, this game matches up, it is moved to seven and a half. I don't know if we're going to put Detroit in our contest. We should have made this our foxhole. What's that? So we should have made, we should have made this our foxhole. Well, we can we can we can we can we go back? Can we? Yeah, I rather take this is our foxhole. Is that okay, Matt? Can we can we change it up guys? Do we already brand it? Can we

rebrand it? Someone just tell me in the chat. That's fine. Approved. Approved. Approved. All right. We're going back to Detroit. Detroit is going to be we love Detroit. We just love them. We love Detroit and we just feel like people are still sleeping on this team. It is a dominant team in the trenches. Dominant team in the trenches. I don't know how we don't take this.

I make this number minus eight. So again, not crazy value here but it's more, I think even my model is underrated in this Detroit team, vice versa. This Buck's team has so many injuries on the defensive side. I just don't see how they get any type stops. If they want to run the ball Detroit, I think they could run it. If they want to pass the ball, I think they'll go to pass it with ease. Like, I just don't know how they get the three and outs the Detroit team. On the flip side, this Bucks team, man, like, if you want to put it all on Baker's

shoulder and let them pass it 30, 40 times, that feels like a recipe for disaster. And you know, worked out against the commander's team. This is night and day. These are two totally different team. So, man, this is very chalky of us back-to-back. weeks, especially last week, right? People think me and Chad got a little lucky with that Detroit number, even though they were up 17 to 3 for about all the game. But it's like, I thought, you know, they had some rhythm issues last week. I can't see it having the same, right?

Even talking about the advantages that this Detroit team has offensively, I don't know any linebackers that can stop LaPorter. Where last week the Rams had a couple of guys that could move around that could give him some problems. and same go for this Bucks team. It's like, I get why the public is kind of in on them right because they were so good against the commander's team. But this is totally different scenario.

And even when I was looking at last year, I went back and rewatched their playoff game. They are a different team, this Detroit team, compared to what they were last year. They're just that much better to me, Chad. So I feel much more confident taking this one. I don't mind making this our Foxhole better at all. Simon, we're in the Foxhole.

Let's go. Let's climb down into the hospital. A foxhole. Detroit is now our foxhole. I can't remember the last time we made a more than touchdown favorite. One of our like, Simon says, big bets, exact decision, foxhole, ever. But I agree. I feel like Detroit might end up being in our final five.

Pittsburgh at Denver, this was my exact decision. Now it's a two and a half. You got to get the best of the number. It was at three. It doesn't bother me. this is more about believing that the Broncos will win outright, you know, money line parley boost hint, by the way. Great spot for them.

Yeah. At home against a bad quarterback. Terrible spot for Mike Tomlin. As good as he is as a dog on the road, just as bad as a favorite on the road. 32 and 40 against the spread as a road favorite when he opens as a spread of three or higher in his career, 38% against the spread. spread. Also, the Broncos are another luck-looking game. I'm not uncomfortable betting them at two and a half. I don't care. It doesn't matter to me. Yeah, and it feels like for Denver,

this is going to be an easy game to turn this Pittsburgh team into a one-dimensional team, right? They're going to force fields to throw the ball. I already know how they're going to do it, too. So I love that matchup for them. Even though we're not hearing much about it, from people I hear that do work for Pittsburgh, there's a lot of drama behind closed doors, right? I think Tomlin and went to bat for Russell Wilson and kind of gave him his word that he would be the guy if he was healthy. He's not, right?

They have to ride Justin Fields because he did win that game last week. So talk about a team that's going to be feeling it. And the other side, a team that lost last week in Denver, it's all good, right? They feel like that young, happy, fun team. And even hearing Bowenicks talk about,

he knows the guy wouldn't watch the tape. He knows the same thing I'm watching, which is he had open guys. If he doesn't get such happy feet and pull it down and trust his offensive line, It's bow time. Boom.

Like a powder keg in your mouth. Suckin style. He did have opportunities to pass the ball against, what we view is going to be one of the better defenses, right? I think Seattle is as much grief if we want to get them. They're not that terrible defensively. So I'm excited for this Denver team. The only knock is me and Chad would have loved,

loved having this three and a half in the contest. We're not going to let the two and a half scare us off, just like Green Bay. I like both these ugly dogs here. I'm still going to take Denver. The public perception, though, that this Pittsburgh team, they're going to be able to travel with this defense. I get it.

Like, that doesn't make sense. But I just think Denver, Champaign, they're going to have something to wear this defense down, especially come the second half. So even if we get out to a slow start chat with this Denver team, I'm not going to be worried, right? We're going to trust the mile high to eventually eat away at this Pittsburgh defense. And I know that they're just going to spread them out, right?

Like I already talked about, you know, JJ Watt, or T.J. Watt, I should say. They're going to just kind of use him as a dummy, right? They're not going to let him dictate this game, which Atlanta, they could not do, right? They don't have a mobile quarterback. So I'm excited to see what Sean Paine is going to do to counteract this Pittsburgh defense. And we're getting Justin Fields is a favorite here, people. Don't overthink it. Take the dog.

Take the two and a half. Simon, everybody knows you can't say T.J. Watts' name out loud. He's like, it's like saying Marvin Harrison out loud. You can't say it. Right now we got six games in our final five, and I was concerned we weren't going to get to any. So I feel pretty good. One game I do want to mention, and I still want to get to, I want to bring in Evan for some, you know, self-fulfilling prophecies here. Atlanta at Philly, like, it is the spot you play Atlanta.

I know we don't want to. It is a luck rankings game, the third of the week. There's only three sides that are luck rankings. I know you like the, I know you like the Eagles. The line is ticked up in their direction, gives you more of a spot to play the Falcons. I don't feel strongly that we have to put it in, but it is a spot you play the Falcons. Yeah, same thing, though.

Like I took the sixth. I, you know, plenty of professionals are going to come in. They'll take the six and a half in Atlanta. For good reason, though, like Chad just said, it's like this number's too big for an unproven Eagles defense that's full of young guys that they couldn't stop anything Green Bay was throwing at them, right? Like Green Bay had guys flying open.

And you expect that a new defense with a bunch of young guys, right? There's going to be a lot of growing pains here. So I get your standpoint. I don't even think this is like in my top 10 of bets I'm even making this week. I just, I'm with Chad. Like I wanted to be on Atlanta. I just have no read on Kirk Cousins. Even going back and watching that game again, it's like, I didn't even know who that was.

That was not Kirk Cousins. We all know. Like it's just, it's a big deal, whatever's going on with his Cicillies. And we don't really know anything about it, right? That's the tough part here is I am in the dark. And when I do talk to people on the team, they don't really know much either because they're just not really pressing it, right? They're like, okay, well, we know he's not the same old Kirk that can roll out of the pocket.

He's kind of just stuck in the pocket. But who the egos have pressure in him, right? That's the question here. It's like, I don't know if the egos have anyone on the outside that can get type of pressure. That's going to give Kirk a problem. So I get where you're coming from, like really quick again, we didn't touch on, and I didn't mention the sharp calls. The professionals like the Giants, the public likes Washington.

I didn't think I'd even be able to get Chad even, you know, even think about putting the Giants in for good reason. But I thought he made a read Evans article about how Debo just owns this Washington team in his whole career. Like Daniel Jones is terrible against everyone else too. He's great against Washington historically. So if you want to take a team in that spot, I am going to end up on the Giants. And if you hate the number, that's another team.

I just tease up with the Rams, right? Just put them into, get them up to eight points. I can't see them getting blown out by this Washington team. And they just, even going back and watching Washington's offense, it's so erratic where it's like they, it's still a first read pulled down for Jaden Dano's, right? That's kind of how it is for these rookie quarterbacks coming into this league. So this is as by low as you can get on this Giants team. I talked to two different bookmakers.

They have no Giants money. It's just all Washington money. So I do like the Giants in this spot. Giants, one and a half point dogs on the road at the commanders. I just didn't bring it up because I didn't want to discuss people. Like we're already talking about, you know, betting Denver at two and a half. But this ain't Carolina.

They got to get over if you're going to listen to their show. We're going to have losers every week. We're talking about betting Malik Willis. Like, we're already asking of people, you know, extraordinary things. But look, I think right now, like if we're talking about Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, Sincere, Detroit, Denver. New York Giants, that's seven games we could potentially choose our five from. So right now, Simon, and you and I might put in the picks into favorites.

Dot Action Network.com today, just to lock in some lines, I would say Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, Denver. and Denver, but that leaves Detroit on the outside. Would we do Detroit or San Francisco? We'll see, because I'm looking at it right now. The 49ers just went down to five. So if that's four and a half in contest, I mean... Forget it.

Right. That's going to be... We'll be the suckers with the Joe Public and we'll buy on that one. Yeah, yeah. That's a fair to have them both as coin flips, but I definitely think it's the number that matters with that one. All right. So we definitely think it's going to be Dallas, Green Bay,

Sincy, and Denver. and then it'll come down to San Francisco and Detroit. Yeah. Okay. Got it. All right. When you were a sweet roulette? No, we got to do boosted underdog money line parlay because our sponsors,

Bet, 365 are giving our money line underdog parley an odds boost this season. We asked, they said yes. Each week we'll give out a two-team money line dog parley, bet three, six, five. We'll have that highlighted on their site all weekend long. with boosted odds. We loved how many people bet it last week. We were very sorry. We couldn't give out the winner

with Carolina and Indianapolis. But look, keep betting it, right? Because the more listeners who bet these boosts, the more picks we can get boosted in the parlay. This week will be Denver. I can't believe I'm saying this. Podcast malpractice and Green Bay. Denver and Green Bay.

But we should do is going to be our boosted. parlay. Both games are eligible for bet three six five's early payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead. Even if they blow the game like the Titans did last week, if you want to bet this better at bet 365. We should still do a money line underdog round robin like the five teams because people really like that last week. I mean, we're definitely putting in Green Bay and Denver. You know, I'm making the people putting care Carolina. Even though I think it's dipped below 200.

We gave it out at plus 250 on Tuesday. I think it's down a plus 200 now, but still love the Panthers in that spot. Giants? Let's see if they qualify. Yeah, there's still plus 105 plus 110, so we can definitely put them in. Sinty?

No, let me get New England in. I know we haven't talked about it much, but like I got to get New England in that spot. They just feel like that wonky team that's going to start 2 and 0 then lose every game the rest of the year. All right. New England?

It's Seattle on the road with a bad offensive line. It's kind of hard not to take this number. Well, I bet Seattle, so now I feel sick about it. I'm a colt of minus two and a half. I'm trying to thread a needle here with Green Bay, you know? So it's like it's tough making the early bets on Sunday night, brother. I know. As Stucky likes to say, it's like catching a falling knife.

Survivor pick last week we did, we had the bangles, but we also had Seattle. We split it in the Survivor Pick pools that we're in. So now we're out. with one but we lucked out with Seattle this week feels like Baltimore right yeah and we'll do the same thing we're doing too um i would take baltimore i know people are like well i want to save them for later in the year you can roll the dice and be a better man than me and take the chargers because this this this is a good number for them but it's like chad knows i don't like taking road favorites on the

road early in the year like this like i like taking the home the home chalk so um yeah i like I like the Raiders, and if there's another team that really pops out, you know, it would have been the Eagles, but it's like, I mean the Ravens. The Eagles for Washington or Giants, so. Who else, Chad? We like the Ravens.

You said Raiders, and I'm like, people were not betting the Raiders in our survivor pool. We're taking the Ravens. Who would you put for number two? Who would you go with there? I mean, Houston had that option? I was thinking the Chargers. Yeah.

they definitely jump out where it's like, I don't know when else we would use them. But yeah, that's, God, that's gross. I know. That's why I don't want to talk about it. I'll put the chargers in my notebook then. Yeah.

Simon, give me your biggest bets right now. I mean, think people already know. I love Denver. Love CENCENCES, especially if you can get CINC still five and a half. I would prefer you get the six,

but the pros just came in and across that one. You know, Detroit, I have a large position on it, seven, seven and a half. I think comes Sunday I've been waiting for the pros to come in on the Saints I'm hoping the Cowboys

dip down to five and a half because that would be probably my biggest bet of the weekend but right now I have a decent amount of the six I'm just really waiting hopefully getting the five and a half dude I got to get out of Mississippi

so I can get back to a legal state and fire away on the tricks I haven't really made any bets on them yet and now I feel like I've missed it imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged it's the enhanced

games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care where you're saying. Yep, that's me. I'm Giver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because, of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

Podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade

of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase

that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth?

Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose

on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search learn the hard way and listen now. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody!

Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hippocrat, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions.

Sike! I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to get. give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike

Coutura podcast network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcasts. Scoot roulette last week. You had Philadelphia minus two and a half. Nice job, Simon. Really good pick. Chad had Tennessee plus four. And I think for, you know, 35 minutes,

it looked like an amazing pick. Who is your scutte roulette this week? Last week was so chalky. I don't want to go chalk. You know what? I will go chalk again. Can I get Jaguars minus three? Is that not allowed?

Of course. All right. No, fuck. No, no. I'm, you know what? I'm not over thinking I'm going Cowboys minus six. Damn it. I was about to take the Cowboys because you took the Jags. But you know what? It's your right. As the winner, it's your right. Yeah. I guess I have to go with Denver. That's good. Yeah. That's good.

All right. We've got to get to our friend Evan Abrams before we get out of here, director of research. He's going to give us the final word and just make us feel better about all the bad things we've done. The last word with Evan Abrams. Abrams. We're finished talking. So Simon almost just took the Jaguars as his favorite play of the week, so we might as well start there and how bad. Trevor Lawrence has been lately,

because that was always where we were going to start, so perfect timing. Lawrence has actually lost his last six consecutive starts straight up, dating back to November of last season, including three straight starts straight up as a favorite. The issue for him has been second half. He's one in six second half ETS in his last seven, so that has been where the game has fallen apart,

like last week against Miami. but the stat, Lawrence is 8 and 9 straight up as a favorite. He is one of eight quarterbacks under 500 straight up as a favorite last 20 years with the minimum of 10 games started as a favorite in that role. Now, here are the most starts of those eight quarterbacks. Number one is Kerry Collins. 37 starts, he's 18 and 19. Number two is Kyler Murray.

24 starts, he's 11 and 13. He's a favorite this week. Kyler is 1 and 6 straight up in his last 7 as a favorite. And number three is Trevor Longer. So two of those quarterbacks currently favored on the board this week. So a little bit of caution there. Second one we've got. This is just a short, short note.

Back-to-back road games to open the air. So Steelers is the one I'm using in this example because everyone seems to like the Broncos. But Steelers were in Atlanta last week. Now in Denver for week two. Teams to go road road, weeks one and two, just 38% straight up since 1990. That is Pittsburgh, Vegas, the Rams, and the Jets this week. So just a little bit of a tough road trip to open the year for some teams. Now, you guys talked about Cincinnati and Mahomes and the whole Bengals chief situation.

So let me give you two notes here. So last week, Burrow, obviously we've seen the video a million times. Didn't look fantastic. 164 passing yards. And looking into the passing yards, 162 air yards on all of his passes. Seventh fewest of any quarterback in week one. The issue wasn't the pressure. He was only pressured three times.

which was the second fewest of any quarterback. Now, if you look how Burrow bounces back. So he had under 200 passing yards. His team's actually averaged 29 points per game after he throws for under 200 passing yards in his previous game. So if Burrow is right, should be a great spot. Now you look at the actual number itself. Simon said about five and a half.

So if he's an underdog of above four points, he's 10 and 2 ATS in his career. When he's that big of a dog with Jamar Chase, he's 5-0 against a spread, never lost. Now, if Burrow isn't right and that wrist is an issue, you kind of have to turn the tide a little bit, and you have to assume, okay, Mahomes is about to face a team and a quarterback who isn't right in their own way.

Mahomes is 16-0 straight up at home after facing a team who had fewer than 200 passing yards in the previous game. He's just not the guy you want to get right against. So depending on how you feel about Burrow should be the way you bet the game. Now, finally, I've got to talk about Carolina. because every podcast and every time we're on the favorites,

I'm going to give you a Carolina trend until they cover. It's just how we're going to do this. They've been a dog in 21 straight games. They failed to cover their last nine games as a favorite. They haven't covered in one as a favorite in three full years. Every other team in the NFL has three covers in that span. They've actually held a lead of 10 points or more three times and lost outright in all three of those games.

Now, to tell you why you should be betting them this week, this is just ridiculous. They had the worst loss in week one. They lost by 37 points. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 plus and her dogs are four or more, 50, 18, and 2, 74% against the spread. I don't know what to tell you, but to take points of Carolina, but I will see you here next week when they are 0 and 2.

I can't wait. Listen, Simon, we're going to have to find a way to sneak the Panthers into our 5, even if we're not going to talk about it. People will just see it pop up in the Action Network app if they follow the 5th, and they'll just see, oh my God, they bet Carolina. They just didn't talk about it because we didn't want to turn people off even more. All right, Evan, thank you very much. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365.

And this, just in New Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets. When you bet $5 sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10 in place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. These bonus bets can be used on spreads, parley's player props, futures and more, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply.

Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, we're recapping. Our final picks from the contest in NFL week two. We'll preview the blinds that we like the most in week three. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

Listen to The Clippert Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean need to listen to learn the hard way on the iha radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast