The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 3

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

Can the Ravens rebound in Dallas? Are the Panthers ready to win an NFL game? And can the Miami Dolphins cover the number with Skyler Thompson? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to answer these questions and give out their favorite bets across the NF slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more.  Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford show on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist

and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world

that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman, chief content officer of the Action Network.

I am live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as always by my co-host. My companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Hello, Chad. Fix the camera, brother. We're all good to go. Ready to bet some ugly dogs. And hopefully, hopefully the takes are so hot, it doesn't overheat the camera once again. Well, listen, I feel like just in the pre-show banter, I felt like coming into today, we would be on the same page. And I don't feel like we are. So let's get to it. I'm feeling a little like a little sad today. Last night was my last curriculum night as a parent for my kids. My senior had his curriculum night last night. What is curriculum? Is that back to school night? It's back to school night.

Oh my God. Hate the name change. Hate the name change. Yeah, I don't know. That's what they call it here in West Harford. I think when you become a senior in high school, it's no longer back to school. It's very serious. It's curriculum night.

No, they should be reminded they're still children. They're children, okay? It's back to school night. Maybe in college, I get it. I get it. When the parents come and visit, they can give it some name. But that's crazy name change. Well, listen, whatever it is, it's over for me.

So now all I have to look forward to, was what we do on this show. And I'm already upset. I'm even more upset because we can't get on the same page. We'll have to talk it through. There's no one else in this marriage, Simon, but you and me. All the outside noise has to go away. You and I have to come to an agreement.

Today is our NFL week three best bets episode. Simon and I will narrow down our five picks in the favorites podcast, $100,000 pro football pickam contest presented by Bet365. sign up favorites dot action network.com. We will also get to our foxhole, our Tommy John, big balls, bet of the week. Simon's biggest bets are boosted money line underdog parlay at Bet 365 plus our underdog round robin parley. We're still debating if we're going to give a survivor because we are so out of survivor that we didn't want to talk about it anymore. Betts are rolling in, lines removing decisions need to be made as our friend and volume podcast.

boss, Colin Cowher likes to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and this just in new Bet365. Customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 in place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features, and more.

Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet, 365 must be 21 or older and present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. Thursdays during the season, we'd like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our two. Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. And the pros feel compelled to weigh in.

Simon, I bet there's a lot to discuss. Sharp calls. Hello. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? It's more split this week than I thought it was going to be. Last week, it felt like it was very one-sided. This week, there's a lot of split games. One game, we're probably going to pass on even talked about the pros are pretty split on this chargers pittsburgh game right i think a lot of people are looking at the charges are a better team with a better quarterback and this is a good spot for them and i think me and you are a bit a little bit lost in that one where it's like we like pittsburg but um don't know if it's going to one of our final five uh you know the pros absolutely love the viking this week right

we saw that number open at three and a half um it's it's down now to most books at two two and a half so uh not too shocking there. You know, we'll get into that one more. I think it has a lot to be rhyme for us, but yeah, pretty crazy. That number's moved so much. So game, another game, we're probably going to get more into this Raiders Panthers game. The pros love the Panthers. They love the any dull and bounce back spot. I told you my hesitation is, can they get stops on that defense? I have thoughts on that. Yeah. So that's going to be, I think a lot of pros have thoughts on it. So that's why they're, they're kind of saying that this Raiders team, when the worst run teams in all football, they're a little overrated as well after that big win.

This spread to them should be closer to three and a half than it is at four and a half five. So pretty interesting that I was a little not not loving that one where I wanted to be on the Panthers, but it was just, I just thought it was a bad number. The pros think that's a good number. So if you have any hesitation, I get it. The Panthers haven't looked like a real team in two weeks, but that's, that's where the pros are backing this week. The big one, I think I've crossed over, Chad, to the Ravens side. The pros love the Ravens. Obviously, Lamar, 20 and one straight up against the NFC.

I think most professionals, that jumps out to them, right? He just historically has won these games against the NFC. And the one loss he did have, if people don't remember, was against the Giants, you know, this fluky game where they were up 10. They lost it in the final two minutes type of game. So for those early games, that's where they're at. The game, two games we and Chad love, the pros love as well. Atlanta. I thought no doubt this would be in our contest. I think Chad's come around on it a little bit as the weeks went along here.

This is definitely a professional sticking the flag in the game. We all are the same view. There's some major questions right now about this Kansas City offense. And then Chad's going to be happy to hear this. The game that I was not totally in on, but I'm coming around with it supporting my guy, Chad. The Jaguars. It's a good number. It should be closer to four. It's still at five at most books. Professionals I talk to that love that number. They've already bet it. They're hoping, right, that by Sunday, everyone starts putting Buffalo in their teasers. Everyone starts betting that number up. And maybe it does get back up the five and a half six. So if you want to wait on that one, I totally get. I'm still grabbing the five now just in case more professional money comes and bets it down. So, yeah, a lot of road dogs this week for the professional betters.

This is going to be a fun one. Quick note on Thursday night football from our friend Evan Abrams, director of research, is going to join us on the show. after the opening week of the season, the New York Jets haven't closed, above a field goal favorite versus a team that is 500 or better since 2012. When, by the way, one of my favorite songs was still on the Billboard, Hot 100 charts. It's so random that Matt Mitchell chose Call Me Maybe, because no joke, my wife and I were out on Saturday night. We were listening to live music here in the Hartford area.

We're fun like that. The couple we were with, someone said that she loved to sing karaoke. I said I had a list of like karaoke go-toes. Call Me Maybe is on the list. What do you think of that? Oh, God. Simon, you're learning so much today about me.

I never fail to disappoint. I just love how different our lives are. Like I think I dropped LSD on Monday and when did karaoke. And Chad's out here saying, Call Me Maybe is one of my favorite songs. We're just in totally different worlds right now, my friend. We could not be living a more different life. That's so funny.

All right. Let's get to our final five. I'll tell you right now. This game, Denver at Tampa, Denver is a six and a half point dog. I love this game so much. I love everything about this game. I don't know how we are not going to put it in our final five. Simon.

Like, I know we are afraid Bo Nix can't throw a touchdown pass. He just undressed him all the way around. round. Look at that. He just got it handed to him. This is the biggest luck rankings game on the board. Of all the ways we can slice and dice the luck rankings, home versus away, the delta in our overall luck rankings between unlucky and lucky. Early in the season versus late in the season, the team in Denver spot covers 64 plus percent of the time. our rankings have the bucks is the luckiest, the Broncos as the second most unlucky.

Vita Vaya, out. Antoine Winfield, banged up or either out or playing very hurt. Bonick started against two really good defenses. Is he now getting a break? Simon, I need you to be my betting buddy on this. Yeah, I would say my only hesitation, chat, is what is going on in college football,

rookie QBs keep getting worse. That's my fear. Like these kids all look lost. And I'm worried that because of the way the betters are in this new water, and I mean, Evan can even talk about at the end of the show, this back in the day, it would have been a 10 point spread. And what world is this not a 10 or 11 spread? And that's what's really pissing me off here.

It's like, I agree with the number. I make it seven. So yeah, I have value towards this Bucks team, but you just nailed it. But Bo Nick should be able to move the ball against his team. Jared golf, I think he was one for seven in the red zone, right? Yeah. That was the struggle of that game. So you're able to move this ball against this buck team, but it's like,

if they're gonna do the Patriots thing of the, you know, the Belichick way of just once the teams get in the red zone, they're done. We've seen that with Bo Nix now. It's just he struggled when he gets down there. So that's my hesitation, Jed. Other than that, I agree with everything you've said. Like, why would we not buy low on this Broncos team? Why would we not sell this Bucks team that clearly got

lucky to not only win that game, but win the way they did, right? They, their defense has so many injuries. So you can get me around to it. It's just you're throwing out three or four really ugly dogs this week that are big numbers. We got to pick one or two of them. We can't take all three or four, right? We can't take the Jaguars, the Panthers, and the Broncos. That's usually doesn't work out well for us.

We just blindly take these gross dogs, which I do agree with them. But it's tough trying to cipher through all of them. It's like, okay, at least I'm getting a bigger number on some other guys that I do have more confidence in. I know it's crazy to say, but I do have more confidence in Andy Dalton than I do in a Bo Knicks type. So that's just what I'm trying to save us from. I do agree with the luck rankings, though, right? This definitely makes sense. This one team, the Bucks have been lucky to start the year where Denver has had some bad luck.

But that's my hesitation, Chad. All right. Well, they're not in the final five yet. I do think we've got a couple of games that we feel really good about the final five that we are going to get to. I feel very good about the Broncos. A little nervous because I don't think that line is going to be any better than six and a half in the contest. I haven't bet it yet because I'm waiting for the number to go back to seven. I think it will get there.

It's trending that way. The juice is sort of an indicator that it's going to go back to seven. But man, I want to bet this game so bad. Guess what? Guess what, Simon? Yes, sir. It is time. It is time.

For our big balls, bed of the week, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest, as you guys know. All right. Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota is plus two. Massive pros Joe's split here. Sixty-five percent of the bets on the Texans, 70 percent of the money on the Vikings. That's why the line has moved from three and a half on Sunday night to two and a half, now down to two. You convinced me of this. I was a little bit nervous because I was anxious about the line. line movement. I think it's moved a little bit too much for me to feel comfortable going all in on it. But for the contest, you feel like we're ready to roll. State your case, Simon Hunter. Yeah, it feels nice for getting, especially two plus two and a half in the contest, but this is

not so much banking on Sam Donald. Right. I think he will keep doing what he's been doing. And, you know, the hope is that they'll have their wide receivers back and everyone will be good to go. And if obviously there's some late scratches, mean chat, are happy to switch this one out. But Brian, for us, I mean, we haven't really talked about it, what he's done through two games with this defense. And even last year, I mean, I couldn't believe how they were so good last year

when they just had a bunch of nameless people. And it's kind of carried over to this season, right? He's turning guys into names and putting people in the right positions. And it's the exotic blitz packages they're running right now. That's really working. And in his career, you know, he's done well against these first years.

year two quarterback. So it makes more sense when you dive into it, why this number is calling down. I know that public perception is Houston's a much better team. You know, this is a team people project to go to the Super Bowl. The books know that, right? There's a reason they're 0 for two this year on the spread and each non-cover is by half a point shed. Like the books kind of know what they're doing here with this Houston team, right? They know that the public money will come in. So the fact that they've moved it down, even though they know come Sunday, a lot of money's going to come pouring in because why would you not back CJ on the road and is less than two points against Sam Darnold, right? It's a spot that I see them taking position on the public.

So I want to grab it now. I would grab it now just because I do think professional money will keep coming down. This number will keep getting bet down. So yeah, I really love this. Our big balls bet. It's just it's a tough one for me to swallow because it is San Darno, but it's like, I can't believe me and Chad now are backing him in this spot. under a field goal against CJ. So Chad knows, though. We don't like backing CJ on the road, especially in a game where he's a favorite.

So trust in the number, trusting the Vikings defense in the spot. That's what we're doing this week. We're getting back to the basics. We're trusting the numbers. We're trusting our instincts. We're not being swayed by our bias against quarterbacks. I have been saying for over a year now,

I think Kevin O'Connell is underrated as a coach, and I think he's finally starting to get a little bit of recognition because of what he's doing with Sam Darnold through two games that is similar to what he was doing last year with his rotation of quarterbacks and keeping the Vikings in playoff contention after Kirk Cousins was injured. So Minnesota Vikings, they are big balls bet of the week. Our sponsor, Tommy John, they give me the kind of support I need and make me comfortable enough to invest in the Minnesota Vikings as our big balls bed of the week. You guys know this is the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John. Get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites save 25% at Tommy John. dot com slash favorites imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged it's the enhanced

games some call it grotesque others say it's unleashing human potential either way the podcast superhuman documented it all embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year within probably 10 days i'd put on 10 pounds i was having trouble stopping the muscle growth listen to superhuman on the ihard radio app apple pod or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or we're you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross

double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim?

Well, you can find out on the Look Back at It podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode, with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point,

Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so... Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we, are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person

while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing,

growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Learn the Hardway and listen now. American soccer is about to explode. The World Cup is coming. Ramos sending on to Ernie Stewart the chip.

I'm Tad Ramos. I'm Tom Boe. On our podcast, Inside American Soccer, you'll get the real storylines. I'm not worried about Policic. I'm not worried about Balagan. I'm not worried about McKinney. My only concern is what happens in the back.

The biggest decisions. If you're going to look at stats and numbers, he has no shot at making this World Cup team. And the truth about the U.S. national team. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here.

Experience it all with us. Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. One more stat for you, from Evan, Minnesota Vikings. Dogs in this spot, undefeated versus undefeated in week three, 13 and 9 against the spread, home teams, 14 and 8 against the spread. So there is a little bit of trendiness to back up Minnesota Vikings. You mentioned off the top, the Chargers and the

Steelers. I almost just want to skip this game. I don't think it's going to make our final five. The line is moved in the direction of the Chargers. The line is now one. one and a half, opened it two. There's more money than tickets on the chargers. So I feel like it's wise guys moving it, especially when the money came in the early side of the week. I just feel like it's too hard to play this game. Too many things up in the air for me. Yeah, this is a fun game, though, honestly, if you're between professional betters, right? This is an old school and new school mentality. The new school that bets trends and situational of football, they love Herbert in this type of spot, right? He's actually performed well going from

west to east as a covering machine. And I think just the old school guys I talk to, love Pittsburgh here. They're viewing it of, you know, they have good intel that Herbert's banged up. And he's kind of toughing it out, right? The new hardball way that he's going to play through this bad ankle in this spot. And it's just, it's hard for me not to like Pittsburgh, but I know the hesitation, right? We haven't seen Justin Fields have to make a completion down three points at all this season, right? They've been up in every game he's played in. So understand the hesitation. I get why I mean you are a little getting a little cold feet on it.

But, you know, maybe Sunday this would be a shocker if this is somehow made into our one with Pittsburgh. That's why I still liking this game. But I agree with Chad right now. There's five other games I like better than we sit here today. But I just want people understand that it's a game that is. split, right? And if you're having a tough time with it, so they're professionals. I'm just, I prefer Pittsburgh in the spot in Tomlin rather than backing this horrible team that I feel like has gotten a little lucky to start the year rather than Pittsburgh. That feels like their

defense has earned every win for them this season. Well, look, you've got J.K. Dobbins, who is running like he's superhuman, and you've got a defense that has looked great. We don't know yet if that Raiders team they beat up on week one is the Raiders team and offense that excelled against the Ravens or was terrible against the Chargers. We don't know yet if the Ravens defense, which we've said, is not nearly as good as it has been the past. We do know that the Steelers have stolen two games because of their defense. So that is unquestionable. And we know that Tomlin is a great coach against the spread, and we know that that defense is going to show up, especially if TJ Watt is there. A lot of questions on this one. If it got to pick, like all of a

sudden if on Sunday it's at half, you know, Steelers minus a half, maybe. I do think there's going to be at least six other games that we feel better about than the Steelers come Sunday. One of those games, Philadelphia at New Orleans Eagles now are two and a half point dog massive swing and this is 50-50 split everywhere money tickets everything you leaned the Saints

on Sunday night when the line was Saints plus two and a half I didn't lean it I bet it yeah I know it's now move five points this feels like such an overreaction and such a letdown spot for the Saints. Like, the Eagles are the side here at this point. Yeah, it's definitely a letdown spot for the Saints,

and the Eagles do feel like the side, but the move does feel warranted in the sense that their offense is different without A.J. Brown, right? That deep threat is taken away. That is a big deal for this Eagles offense. So I get the movement, but you're right. Like, you couldn't have more opposite teams right now, right? Saints, how do they not feel themselves, right?

I mean, this is a team that, I mean, I can't remember. I can't, I'm trying to think of a team that's done this before. Like, we just didn't see a team coming. They put up back-to-back weeks of over 40 points. I'm running through my mind. I really can't think of one. St. Louis Rams. The Rams, right, Kurt Warner.

1999, Kurt Warner out of nowhere. Honestly. And we kept waiting for that team to break, right? we kept waiting like, you didn't because, you know, you were five. But me, as an old person, like, you know, that's the season I was writing the book of the odds. And I was in Vegas every single week and watching bookmakers try to adjust as fast as they can and then sweating the liability because they had opened the Rams to win the Super Bowl at 200 to 1. And so every single week they were trying to play catch up on this team and you couldn't.

Like you couldn't move the number fast enough. So I think it presents a real problem for people like you and the rest of the professional betting community on the Saints because everyone was so down on the Saints to the point where some people were picking them to be last in the NFC South. All of a sudden, do you have to like grade the Saints better than the Knights better than the nineers better than the Eagles, better than the line? Like, it's a massive adjustment you might have to make. Yeah, and it's, I agree though with what you said

at the very beginning, which is like, this line moved too much and, you know, hoping we talked on Tuesday show, I was really hoping that it would stay at three and maybe we'd get the bump up at three and a half, but you just saw that eventually a professional money was gonna come in and take that number at the three. So I like this game.

This is another game where it's, because it's so early, growing the season. I don't have the most confidence I would later in the season where it's, you see this Eagles team having some growing pains, not just defensively, but offensively. And this matchup actually is a pretty decent matchup for this Saints team offensively about what they can do against this Eagles defense because the Eagles don't have any pass rush. And we've seen Derek Carr, if he wants to do well, it's when he has no pressure. That's really when he succeed. So he hasn't had to face any type of pass rush because his team has been up 14-3 in

back-to-back games to start the game. But I'm with you, Chad. This Eagles team, you expect to bounce back. And at best, this should probably be a pick-um. The public reaction has moved there's so many points, right, and that the books, they need to protect against that. So if you are scared off by these Eagles at two and a half, right, make it a teaser leg. But to me, I'm with Chad I have no fear here. I think the Eagles pulled the upset off. And we almost put this in our moneyland brown robin, but maybe we'll stay there for the end of the show.

The, you've been, you know, you and I talked about Philly Sports Radio and Chicago Sports Radio out of the weekend. Give me your, like,

have people, people have been bashing Nick Siriani for the call for Sequin and the throw. But why isn't that Kellen Moore's fault? Why aren't people going after Kellen Moore? Because no one knows what Nick Siriani does. That's the thing. I think in Philly is just,

we are already, you know, getting ready to push this guy off the boat. And, you know, now he's just, he's on the plank at this point. Like, they're really, it's just the classic situation of when it's working, and he says all the stupid little phrases, it works.

When we're not winning, it's just, it's just a bad look. So I told you, I don't panic about it. It's so early in the year, this, This feels like the first four weeks really is pre-season to a lot of these NFL teams and coaching staff.

So, yeah, the big issue I had with him was not taking the three early in the game. But you know how I like it, Chad. I like teams to be aggressive. So, you know, obviously foreshadowing and seeing the future, I didn't realize that I was going to be the decider of the game, that three points that he passed on there. But I'm with you. I blame Kulam more, but I don't, I'm not mad at him, but Seekwon dropped that. I like the call. I thought it was a smart call in the Senate.

that they're going for the win there. But the pushback, I think, in Philadelphia is just Sequin could pick up five, seven yards at a time. Why did we keep going away from that in the red zone and putting the ball in Hertz hands where it just clearly didn't work in that game? So another matchup, though, for the Eagles against the Saints team,

they should be able to run this ball at will against the Saints team. That, to me, is the biggest weakness to the Saints team. So as Me and Chet are backing this team, we need Seyquant to have a day. And I think we're going to see that right. This is the ultimate motivational game for a guy who just had, you know, you could say a loss on him.

So I definitely like this bounce back shot for this Eagles and this offense. Saints are only the fifth team since 1990 to go 40-40, opening two weeks of the season. Thank you, Evan. All right. Crazy. We don't have a favorite we love yet. You know I have the one favorite.

Well, yeah, we'll see. Green Bay at Tennessee, Tennessee minus one and a half now. Yeah? Like, I decided I fell in love with Tennessee after, you know, three days of research. I saw the line got to two and a half, and it was a two and a half minus 115. So I was nervous the line was going to go back up to three. And so I rushed to bet the two and a half. as soon as I put the pick in the app,

no joke, within three minutes, I got a slack from Matt Treby, our NFL editor, who also happens to be a native Wisconsinite, who told me that Jordan Love was practicing yesterday. And then that line dropped to two, and then it dropped to one and a half, which is where it is now, and now I just feel like a schmuck,

because I bet the Titans at two and a half. The Titans could easily be two and oh right now, Simon. I know like we're nervous about the Jordan Love factor here, and that's important. But like they're blocked punts and Will Levin's bonehead plays away from being 2 and O. Whatever worked for the Packers as a game plan with Malik Willis against the Colts will not work against the Titans. We don't know Jordan Love status.

Maybe there was a decoy. and maybe he's just getting on the field to get loose. But this Titans team isn't as bad as their record suggests. Yeah, I'm happy you came around. I told you Sunday night. I loved it. But you just said the big thing holding us back here is Jordan Love. Like that's a five, six point line movement, if he is the quarterback.

And that's why I think professionals are taking a position on Green Bay. Just in case that does happen, it's like, okay, was this line go up to a minus three, minus three and a half for Green Bay? I mean, that's how big of an upgrade he is at the quarterback position year. So, yeah, to me, if this is going to be one of our favorites come Sunday, I got no problem putting this in Chad. You know how much I love this Tennessee defense, especially up front. This is a perfect matchup for them going against Green Bay.

Again, without Jordan Love. If it's Jordan Love, we have a little bit of hesitation there. But, yeah, I love it, Chad. So if we could lock in the contest today, though, at one and a half with Tennessee and then, you know, it does go up to three when Jordan loves out, me and you will love that, right? That'll be the kind of game that will ruin our Sunday because we didn't switch it out. Yeah. We should have for a different game just because that's going to be great value on the numbers.

So I'm right there with you. I love Tennessee. Have no issue making that our only favorite. But there is one other favorite I do love, but this one is definitely at the top where it's just defensively, I love the match up. And it's just, man, we talk all the time. You got to bet these 0-2 teams straight up 0-2 against the spread. week three. There's a couple of teams like this. This is one of them I circle, so I'm with you,

chat, on this one. We still owe people a foxhole. I don't think this is it yet because there's too much uncertainty at the quarterback position. We talked a lot about the Giants in Cleveland the other day. Cleveland's a six and a half point favorite. We're still awaiting word on both tackles, Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis for the Browns who I have not played. The Giants, like, this is a good spot for them. A lot of luck rankings, advantages. Winless teams in week three

go 60% against the spread the past 20 years. I don't hate the Giants here at all. I know like it's ugly, but this is what we do and we make these hard decisions. No noise, Simon. No

noise. Talk me off the ledge on the Giants. I can't. This Brown's team just as lost offensive. I think they were two for 14 on third downs against the Jaguars. It's just all bad. The total feels very high. And I'm looking at the money on the side. It's like all the money's pouring in on the under and it really doesn't move much, which is a very interesting move by the sports books. I'm not seeing what they're seeing here. I just see this being a slug-it-out, ugly game with two teams that have major questions at the quarterback position right now. So you know on that, chat. I want the desperate dog and there is no more desperate team right now than the Giants. They knew last week they gave one away, right? That's a spot that I think historically teams that score three touchdowns versus a team that does not score a touchdown. Usually win those games. So man, to be a Giants fan right now, it must just be absolutely brutal. I can't even imagine, but this, to me, has got everything written about upset. So this could squeak in to be one of our five

now the more I'm thinking about it, but it's like these big dogs, right? I think, historically I haven't had an amazing number about it like these these dogs of five and a half or six and a half are nine oh and one or nine and one this year to start that's that's pretty crazy Chad so it's gonna eventually go the other way at some point so not to shock to anyone that we love these big dogs this week but there's definitely a reason to be a little hesitant on just blindly betting all of them this giants one of all of them I feel pretty good about just in the sense that it's still all about the Sean Watson I just don't think that offense is right yet.

Defensively, the Giants, you know, they have one of the worst secondaries. Can he take advantage of that? I haven't seen anything to prove otherwise. So I like where you're at coming with a six and a half chat. I can see this being one by five. Right now I'm looking at our list and it's Giants, Titans,

Broncos, Vikings. Now we're getting back to it. No more of this Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, You DAC Prescott, bullshit, right? Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

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or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here. Experience it all with us. Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. Chicago at Indy I think you and I are split on this game Mine's at one and a half I just think that

I can't get behind the bears yet I don't love that the wise guys are backing them Hungry Bears are violent bears Their rush defense Has just not been very good That's what I expect the Colts to do and do well I think it's a coaching mismatch

I think it's a home game for Anthony Richardson, a little bit more of a get-right game, and I can find a lot of value in betting on the Colts. Yeah, keep it moving. It won't be one of my top eight bigger bets of this week. So you're right. It's another team. Colts owe it to at home,

clearly going to be the more desperate team, right? They know if they go over three, the season's basically over. So I get where you're coming from. My view of it was just finally Caleb Williams going to play against the defense that can be passed on, right? He's just been through the ringer. the last two weeks and he's hearing all the noise. So it's just like, can he finally bounce back?

And I do think your defense, you know, they might struggle against the run, but they're so good in every other aspect of what they do. Amazing in coverage. Their pass rush has been great. Like those two elements, they're, you know, top five. If only they had Jalen Carter. I mean, that's all they're missing is a detackle in the middle. Miami at Seattle.

This line is at four and a half. I think I think we both felt on Tuesday that the line had moved too much and there was no more value I'm kind of having second thoughts you know like I like what the Dolphins

secondary has been doing the Seahawks won't have Kenneth Walker the Seahawks I think are getting a lot of credit for beating the Broncos and the Patriots and not doing it decisively and even with Skylar Thompson there's still so much more talent on this Miami team

than there was on those other two teams. Still might be a little bit of value on this. There could be, but yeah, I'm just not going to get there. I tried even going through Evans' trends and reading all this trends and being like, there's going to be something in here to get me on this Miami team. Just because it's another team that, you know, they should be 0 and 2.

I mean, they got really lucky that week won. like, all right, this is the kind of team I do like to back in these type of spots because Chad just said it. It's like the Seahawks, how are they not overvalued? But they're another team the books have had a pretty good read on, right? They're also 0 and two against the spread this season to start the year. Both games not covering by half a point. So yeah, I just, I can't, is this really one of our five? That's what I'm like trying to think here, Chad. Are we really going to make this one of our five? I can't do it, but maybe, maybe Chad, this will be one of his picks to put in, but as we sit here right now, I got no read on this one.

Well, look, if you asked me to choose between the Broncos and the Dolphins, I'm 100% choosing the Broncos. I'd rather, yeah, I'd rather the Broncos. You know, that's not even a question to me. All right. People don't want to hear us talk about this, but I do think we have to be responsible and talk about Carolina at the Raiders. Okay?

Like this number has moved down from seven to five and a half off the Dalton news. Now it's down to five. I know you had this rated at five and a half, so clearly you're not going to see value on the Panthers at five. I know we believe this defense can't do anything, but I do think that just by having Andy Dalton be the quarterback, you're automatically going to improve the defense's chances to perform. I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the action pod this morning.

Raybond had a stat that the average field position for Panthers' opponents has been the 39-yard line. The Panthers, the opponent's 39-yard line. So, like, you got to think it'll be better just from field position perspective. They'll be in a better position to stop the pass, to rush the passer. I don't know. I don't know. Like if we were truly unfeeling, unemotional traitors.

Yeah. Working for Bill Ackman and one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. And we were committed, we would bet the Panthers here. We're not going to do it because we don't want our audience to fully revolt. But you know we should bet the Panthers. A little bit. but it's also like you got a good number at the seven or six and a half on the Panthers. Now you're kind of getting a bad number.

But I get what they're saying too. Like Chris talking about this kind of spot for Andy and this team. Like we've seen this, right? Where the new quarterback comes in and does give a little pop to a team. And, you know, the Raiders coming off that insane win against the Ravens. You expect a letdown the final week, right? They're going to be feeling themselves all week here. But I don't know.

My problem is I probably watch too much of the all-22 of this Panthers team. And it's just everything. Like the only guy that felt like he was trying, that's not fair. The offensive line has been trying the whole time. But like there's a couple of times that these guys running routes would just take the routes off.

You expect that to be different here with Andy Dahl. The wide receivers I lost total confidence are Bryce Young. I really haven't seen what the Panthers are because it feels like their team would give up midway through the second quarter. So this Raiders team, this is a big number for this team to be getting, right?

They aren't one of the best teams on football. They're a team that's still trying to figure out their own shit right now. But man, there's just other dogs I like more than this Panthers team. That's the hardest part he's trying to get there on this number. It's just it's hard for me to do. They're so bad. This team is so bad.

But it's also like defensively, it's so bad. It's going back to the girlfriend again and again and again no matter how many times you've been burned. You matter how bad she makes you look to your friends. What is wrong with this dear? He's such a sucker. Like, they just keep getting me. All right. We'll put it on the list.

Baltimore at Dallas. I hate this game. They are the Dallas Cowboys, a freewheeling All-American Star Kiss team. I feel like there's new defensive coordinators on both sides. There's no running game to speak of. The Cowboys backfield is terrible. I think there's a huge identity crisis.

on all sides of the ball for both of these teams. We have four identity crises, crises are happening. I think the Ravens have just had bad luck. That's honestly what it is to me, right? They missed winning that first game by tow, the last game. They're up 10, and then it just all went wrong in the final four minutes of that game. Like Lamar getting sacked and the punt, I think they punted like 20 yards to give the Raiders a short field.

It just went, it all kept going wrong for this Ravens team where I had a lot. I think we talked about coming to the season. We had major questions about their defense because they were so thin, especially the defensive line that they don't have guys to switch in and out, right? If that top unit is gas and doesn't have it early on, it feels like Dallas can be cooked on defense.

So, Derek Henry's not been as bad as people perceive. Like this running game isn't as horrible as people think it is for this Ravens team. And let's throw some stats of you. Maybe I can get you the other side. Lamar, when it's the spreads under three points or less, two and a half, or he's an underdog. He's 22 and 7 against the spread.

Against the NFC, Chad. He's 20 and 1 straight up. This is a straight up line. It's won. So, yeah, is this to feel a little trapby? A little bit because me and Chad wanted to be on Dallas here. But then you see C.D. Lamb didn't practice yesterday because he had a bad ankle. And it's just like, oh my God.

I mean, come on. If CEDY's not right in this matchup, that's got to be a huge win for this Ravens team. It's just what is the identity on offensive? CD's not right for this Dallas team, right? He is, to me, the key to that offense and makes everything go. As much as we want to say, it's all DAC, it's like, CEDY's the one

that makes the big plays out of nothing. So I think I'll be able to get you there, maybe on Sunday. I mean, I convince you to get it in there now, but of all the favorites this week, obviously I put Titans number one if it's Malik Willis, but number two right there is the Ravens.

I just, they're 0 and 2 against a spreadsheet, 0 and 2 straight up. It's horrible. I mean, we have to take them in the spot. This is what we always take the Ravens in this. No one believes in us back against the wall spot. But I understand your hesitation. It's just the vibes are so bad.

No one would be shocked if they're 0 and 3 to start the year. But man, Lamar in this spot historically, we have the numbers that back it up. He does very well. I worry about this defense, the Ravens defense. Totally get it. I mean, we just saw Minchu go up and down the field on them. So I have no rebuttal against it, but no, it's bad right now for the Ravens. We haven't chosen a Foxhole yet.

And the final two games on our list are already chosen as an exact decision. And Simon says, so we do have to get into a Foxhole here. Who do you think for Foxhole, then you want to do Eagles? Because I know you're not here on the Ravens, but we're both on the Eagles. I'm also not afraid of the Giants. I know you won't be in the Foxhole with me on the Broncos. I'm going to bet it, but it's going to be a little baby bet. I'm just, oh man, these rookie QBs are so bad, Chad.

I can't get over how bad they are. I'd rather be in the foxhole on Tennessee. Okay. I'm with you on that one then. All right. We're going to the foxhole on the Tennessee Titans. We're in the foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole.

All right. Last couple games here. Detroit and Arizona, I still see nothing. I know you're like saying Arizona. I have no feel. This line hasn't moved. I don't see anything in the numbers. I don't want to do it.

No, it's fair. I like Arizona in the sense that to me, they've been the more consistent team offensively. I think they know exactly what the identity is. Detroit just feels lost. I mean, this is the perfect get right spot for Detroit. That's why I'm not pounding the table for this one. But I love Arizona pull the upside off here.

It's just if they have the ball last, I have confidence in Kyler Murray in this offense right now that he does have the weapons. And if they get a lead, even more so. Like that James Connor run attack with Kyler. Pretty good. Yeah, it's pretty damn good. So my only hesitation, which I feel like you have the same,

is this Arizona defense might be absolutely awful. And yeah, they beat up on a Rams team that had their third stringers on the left tackle's position. Yeah. Now they have the best offensive line of football coming in in a get right spot. So totally understand your hesitation, Chad. Obviously, if this was three and a half,

I think I'd be able to talk into this for contest. Right now, I checked it was two and a half in contest. I just mean you both are like, eh, we don't need to put that one in. No, definitely not. Atlanta, Kansas City, we're definitely going to play Atlanta at three and a half. That was your Simon says. The Atlanta Falcons were typified by players

who consistently made the big play. Look, it's been getting a ton of money on the falcons side. it moved from four and a half, really off of the Monday night game. But I think the Chief's run defense is in trouble. I think that the Falcons offensive line is the best rush offensive line in the NFL,

especially interior on the right side. I think we saw what they could do when Bejohn is the primary focal point against the Eagles. I think the Chiefs, and you said this best, they're still figuring out who they are, and this is when you get them. and now Pacheco being out, they still really don't know who they are offensively.

Travis Kelsey hasn't been involved. They have one downfield threat in Mishie Rice. We don't know what Xavier Worthy is yet. Patrick Malmes hasn't been that good. No. Yeah, Atlanta. Go, Simon says. It's in.

Yeah, that's my biggest reason, right? Is Mahomes fact. I just don't think he's looked right. I don't think it's going to get any better in this spot here. I still think he just doesn't feel comfortable right now with the they don't know who their left tackle is and that's a big deal and obviously defensively Chad just touched on it

there are some gaping holes in this defense that can be exploited and perfect run blocking scheme here for this Atlanta team to exploit it so my only hesitation at all is still Kirk Cousins as well as he did against the Eagles we saw the Eagles had no pass rush right it was only up the middle they had any type of pass rush and

the veteran Kirk Cousin was able to step around it we never really saw what he had to do when he was forced out outside the pocket. So that to me is the only fear with this. Everything else, I love the number, love the spot. Home team, Sunday night, prime time. Every Joe Schmo is going to be going in there throwing the Chiefs in at the end of the day on their parlay or their teaser ticket, right? So my only hope was this would go up, but the reason I made it Simon says was, I talked to a couple really wise, sharp guys and they were just like, no, I'm going to, I'm going to hammer this Atlanta line. This is going to keep going down. It hasn't, right? There's been enough public money to

keep this up. Like I'm looking right now, it's over 75% of the bets, 80% of the money at a couple books right now is on this chief's team. So that makes sense, right? The more public books are getting hammered on this chief line while the sharper books are getting a ton of the land on money. So I'm glad you come around on it. I know that it probably helped that Nick had the land here in the luck ranking. So he did by the way. You came around on it, and this morning, you know, I told you that I bet with a couple of friends. Yeah. And one of them saw me put Atlanta in the action app, my buddy Josh. And he's been hammering me this morning.

I'm not going to question your judgment as the chief investment officer of our fund. But why are we betting Atlanta plus three and a half against Kansas City Chiefs? And then I went through a whole explanation. I'll say text back long term winner. Mathematically, we always talk about this is where you want to fade Mahoney. Yes. And by the way, I did. I'm like, look, historically you were going to win money if you fade Patrick Mahomes as more than a three-point favorite. But then there's all these other things. So we've done it. It's happening. Atlanta's in. Lock it in. Lock it in. The Jags. I'm glad

you're coming around on the Jags the way I did. Oh, it's tough. But you're with me. You're with me because you watch old 22 at all or no. Have you watched the Jags all 22 at all or no? I have not watched the Jags all 22 at all or no. I have not watched the Jags. Oh my God. I mean, I know Evan keeps telling us that Fayed Trevor Lawrence in the second half. Even their game script to start the game, all of it was just so bad. So this makes me feel sicker than your Broncos bet. No way. Yeah, it could all be really bad right now for Jacksonville, brother.

But it's early in the year. I try not to react because I always say these first four weeks I kind of treat it as a preseason same with the players. Trevor had moments and he has guys open. He just was sailing passes. it was really, it was really bizarre. So this, though, is the classic spot where the bills let down everybody, right? They're on like 11 days rest

after a huge divisional win on the road. That's why I'm getting so behind the chat because it does feel like another game where it's like, same with that Eagles, right? We talked about that Eagles Houston two-team teaser who was going to lose it. This feels like the same spot, right? Who's going to break this Monday night,

Cincinnati Bill's teaser? I just can't see the Bengals. losing and going 0 and 3 against Washington. But the bills dropping this game to an 0-2 Jaguars team, I can see. And just matchup-wise, there are things they can do defensively, right? They have the athletic D-Ns that can give Josh Allen issues. And Josh Allen's been playing like the MVP.

How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way. That's the hesitation for me. But, you know, we both agreed on it. The bills have had such injure. to their defense, there are ways to attack this team.

So if Trevor Lawrence can't get it right here, me and Chad might add them to the list, right, of guys were just not going to be betting for a little while. So this is definitely a show to me, Trevor Lawrence. We're playing the number. You can still get five, five and a half at a couple books. I love that this is still above four, four and a half. So I'll take that number, Chad. Bill's sixth luckiest team in the NFL, Jack's, 29th or fourth most unlucky.

They actually averaged a yard more than the Browns last. week. The Browns got lucky, went three for three on fourth down. The Jags went one four in the red zone. We just have to believe at some point, some of this goes the other way. Either Trevor Lawrence I mean, it's been what, a year and a half now? It's been a year. It's been a year. Yeah. Like Trevor Lawrence, and we talked about Barnwell's column, Bill Barnwell from ESPN, had a great summary of Trevor Lawrence's challenges in the quick passing game, meaning when he's got to get the ball off less than two and a half seconds, he has not been good. And he has been not been good in the red zone. And this team has been turned up in the red zone. Some of that has to eventually regress

the other way. It will be this week against the Buffalo Bills, Western New York's finest. Shout out Matt Mitchell. All right. Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. Underdog Moneyline Parlay, our sponsor, Bet365 gives our Underdog Moneyline Parlay an odds boost this season. Bet365 will have that highlighted on their site. Our week three boosted Underdog Parlay, in deference to my BFF, Simon Hunter. We are going with the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings. Both games are eligible for Bet365's early peasant.

payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead. Even if they go on to blow the game to lose, you want to bet this better to bet three, six, five. All right, let's do our money line underdog round Robin. We'll come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday, someday. There will come a pay day. Hallelujah, what a pay day.

There will come a pay day someday. Obviously we're doing Minnesota in Arizona. For the big dog, I was almost there with you in the Broncos, but I think we got to go Giants, right? Yeah. Like they feel like the more realistic, most veteran team that could pull off that upset. Let's get Atlanta in there.

Yeah, that's a good idea. Minnesota, Arizona, Giants, Atlanta. Now, do you believe in the Jaguars or should we get real sick and go with our Carolina Panthers? I mean, we could do Carolina. we could do Denver Let's go with Panthers because I'm not going to make this one of our five

but I'm a sicko I just can't stop bedding their money line You're sick Let's go Panthers You are disgusting This whole show is disgusting Oh I love that I love that five

There will come a pay day someday I don't know Do we have to talk about Survivor I don't even want to bring it up I'm back in I bought into a one Just so I can keep it going Because I did feel bad

Shockingly people we have won people's survivor contest. Last year we had a couple of people win, thanks to me and Chad, not being total idiots to start the season. For me, what I'm personally doing, if you didn't use it yet, I am going SINC.

If you had used them, I'm going to go 49ers. Like the 49ers against this Rams team, this Rams team might be shutting it down pretty soon. So I'm going to take the, whatever it is, minus 355 now. It's up to this 49ers team

to win out right in that game. So my two, Cincinnati, the 49ers. Scoot Rulette, last week you had the Cowboys minus three. I had the Broncos plus two and a half. But in the rollover world, believe in week one, you had Philadelphia minus two and a half, and I had Tennessee plus four. So you get to choose first again.

All right, keep a simple stupid. I'm going to go Lamar, Ravens. I just can't see them start 0 for three. So I'm going to take the minus one. Wow. Then I think I will go with the Miami Dolphins. I'm just, I'm putting it in the script. It's official.

I am taking the Miami Dolphins. Evan Abrams, save me from myself, director of research. Oh, man. Let me some final words to make us feel good about something. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. Just one fun note. So you talked about Mahomes not being the same type of quarter.

of 32 quarterbacks this year. Average depth of target. The lowest is Jaden Daniels. The second lowest is Mahomes. It's 5.0 for Mahomes. For reference, rookie year was 9.1. 2022 was 7.4.

It's five this year. So it's just ridiculous how a different quarterback he's been. And then to answer your question, Simon, before, 2 and 0 at home, 0 and 2 on the road. When you're at home in that week three last 20 years, the average line is 7.6. So, yeah, when you're talking about Denver, Jacksonville, those types of games, the line probably should be a little bit higher for what it's worse. So you're right.

All right. Into spiel. So as Jan Harbaugh said this week, the NFL season is a race to improve. And that is exactly what the Panthers are trying to do. So we're going to talk to Carolina right now. So the Panthers have gotten blown out twice to start the season. Over the last 35 years, we've seen 39 teams lose by two touchdowns or more in weeks one and two. Those teams in week three are 25, 13, and 1.

against a spread 66%. But to me, there's just way more than that because of the Bryce thing, right? So I think it's worth touching on that. Since 2022, there have been 39 quarterbacks with at least 500 total plays. Dalton and Bryce are on the list. In terms of EPA per play, which is just expected points added, Bryce is dead effing last. Andy Dalton is 21st in terms of success rate,

which is simply yards gained depending on what down it is. You got to gain more yards as the downs go by. Bryce Young, dead effing last. Andy Dalton is actually 11th on that list. So call all the Toy Story fans, Andy's back. All right, let's talk about the Jaguars for a second. So Josh Allen has closes a favor of four points or more 26 times over the last three full seasons. Bills are 8, 17, and 1 against a spread in those games.

Of the 46 quarterbacks to close over four points in any game in that span, that is the single worst ATS mark. So understand where you guys are coming from on the Jags. Now, talk about one bonus nugget with the Jaguars, which I literally found last night. Doug Peterson is actually 13 and 3 against a spread as a dog at night. Best of 136 coaches last 20 years. And he's actually 3 in 1 against the number with Lawrence.

So decent spot there. And then I had to use this one. So here are five random quarterbacks. JP Lossman, Patrick Ramsey, Kevin Cobb, Dennis Dixon, and Kenny Pickett. What do they all have in common? They all were pretty terrible, but they're all above 500 against a spread in their careers. Sometimes you just have to bet really bad quarterbacks. Now we talk about the Miami Dolphins.

It's simply going to give you one stat. Backup QBs catching four points or more in their first start for a team. Two and O this season, Justin Fields Week 1, Malik Willis and Week 2. Now we get Skyler-Thomson. But those quarterbacks, 83, 58, and 2, 59% since 2013. Just hold your nose and do what you got to do. Skyla Thompson's one and two ATS career. Time to get even.

I'm so in on the Jaguars. I don't need to be like... Evan's got me fired up. I wasn't as much, but Evans got me now. I'm way too far deep on the Jaguars. Not even the best number on the board. No, I'm already looking forward to us sweating out. Atlanta and the Jags.

Oh, my God. We're going to have miserable Sunday and Monday nights. No, it's the best. Terrible. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet 365. and this just in new Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10 in place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet, 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap the latest and greatest in NFL

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