The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 4

Episode Date: September 26, 2024

Are the hungry Bears ready to roar? Are the Broncos being overlooked? And can the Indianapolis Colts cover a small number? Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to answer these questions and give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and so much more.  Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of you.

You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come up to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you

you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John Home Studio. And in his Tommy John home studio is my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better. Simon Hunter.

Hello, Simon. Always ready, Chad. How are we doing, brother? Guess what? We are going to be talking about NFL week for best bets. This is where Simon and I narrow down are five picks in the Favorites podcast, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now. Favorites.actionnetwork.com. You can still win the $1,000 weekly prize if you win best record. for the week. We're going to get into the foxhole. We're going to give out our undefeated

Tommy John Big Ball's Bed of the Week. No, I did not just mush it. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets. We're going to do our boosted money line underdog parlay, which you will be able to bet at Bet365. We're going to do the underdog round robin so much more. Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as our old. friend and volume podcast boss. Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. New Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10 and place a bet for $500 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never. ordinary, you bet 365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. As always, Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. They all like to weigh in. They all call. That's how influential we are. Lines are move,

moving based on our conversations. The pros feel compelled to tell us what they think. Simon, what do you got for? Sharp car. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, they jumped on a couple of our bets, Chad. They moved Atlanta from one and a half, up the two and a half, and they moved the colds now from two to one and a half, which no shock here. That's the professional side side. We love talking about it. A side I was unsure about that I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguar. As I said, I bet it if it got the seven. It did get the seven. I did bet it. It's now six and a half down to six of most books. That's easily one of the more professional sides this week, right? That's the

side they're all taken where the general public, they're all going to be all over Houston, especially in their teasers. So we've seen that number now come back down to six though before we got on here. I do think that's a number come Sunday. That number will skyrocketed again. We're seeing it every single week. These numbers are moving big on Sundays as more and more money is coming in. I'm not on the side, but it's a side that you like, like I bet it early in the week. I bet the bears a minus one. The professionals do love the bears. I just, I haven't really fully got there now that it's up to three. Another one, obviously, we love Panthers plus four. A lot of guys talking about that one with Atlanta as well I didn't think I'd get you there was

Vegas they were minus one they're now minus one they're now minus two basically every probably talked to heading to that matchup has the same view of it it's just a good spot to keep fading to Sean Watson you know again we talked about that we knew coming into this was gonna be pros versus Joe's the the public loves the bills they're right now in the action app I believe they're 80% of the bets 80% of the money is on the bills so professionals are the reason this number stay where it's at it's the reason has not dip down to two or one and a half.

It's pretty obvious what's either on. So that's a number I did bet, but now I'm hoping because there's so much money right now in the bills that this number does eventually come down. But yeah, Ravens minus two and a half feels like that's going to have to be the play, Chad. I know, I know. I'm actually not afraid of it. I feel pretty good about it, to be honest. We're going to dig into that game.

Quick note for Thursday night. For those who do hear this on Thursday, reminder, we played the Cowboys. We played him at five and a half. That's when we talked about it. last Sunday. The line got down to four, back up to four and a half, then five, then five and a half. Now it's at six in a lot of places, probably because we talked about it and all the wise guys who have since played it. But look, the consensus wise guy power rating on this Thursday game is in six to seven. So it's finally getting to that spot. All right. First game up. Philadelphia, Tampa

Bay, plus two and a half. from a spread point of view, the bucks are definitely the right side, as you have pointed out, the line touched three for a second before getting back down to two and a half. But to me, and this is where we have to have the conversation, that all assumes somewhat full strength on both sides. And instead, we've got A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, Lane Johnson. None of them even participated in the Wednesday walkthrough. Vita Vaya, Antoine Winfield, Luke Geddiki, all questionable or out for the box.

So who are we betting on in this game? No, it is, it's bad, but I think Evan had some great trends about it as well. This Eagles team, they're just a different team on the road, especially Jalen Hertz. Like historically, I like to back them at home. last week was just a perfect storm of you know the price had gotten insane i think the line had moved six points or seven points from the saints to being a dog from being a dog always to being a favorite so it was like okay that was a spot we want to take the eagles here it just feels like they're a little overrated right you just gave out all their injuries this isn't the same offense and you know

as much as i like to knock uh dennis allen he is a good defensive mind he kind of put it on there for that Eagles team in the sense that the Eagles do what they do, right? They got a ton of yards, but they failed a bunch of times once they got into the red zone. I see kind of the same thing here with Todd Bowles. Like he just, the way he runs his defense, he's going to get Hertz eventually. Like he's going to set up a trap and Harts will eventually fall into it.

And, you know, my big question, which I think you talked about a little bit, is just this Bucks team offensively, if this does all of a sudden turn into a shootout, the Bucks just, I feel like they can't keep up and that's the hesitation for me. But, you know, they talked this week. They said, Bucking Irving, who, you know, to me, should be their number one running back

is going to get more touches. That's a great way to attack this Eagles team, right? Get their front tire, and that's really we see them struggle. So there's a couple things I do like about this, but I think you're right where it's like, if it's two and a half, I really like it. If it's one and a half in our contest,

obviously I wouldn't take that. I think the value is when it's crossing this key number of two. So for me, not only do I like to match for this Bucks team, but it's like the trends, fading hurts on the road has been very profitable for me. So this is another spot where I kind of want to fade him here on the road, especially the guys leading the league in turnovers. It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it, especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the favorite in these kind of spots.

So, yeah, it's really what you talked on the very beginning. It's about playing the number. I make this closer to a pick. It's two and a half. I'm going to take that value every time. Look, Hertz has turnover problems, right? Yeah. One season might be circumstances, bad offense, bad communication. Heading into the quarter season mark of another season, then it's a thing.

Then it's like not reading things right, not holding it onto the ball carefully, not tucking it when you need to tuck it. that all of a sudden becomes a trend, not just an anomaly to me. I think he said, though, you're just trying to do too much. That's his issue. It's like when you start trying to do too much, you don't play well, and you kind of make big mistakes. I think same can be said for Mahomes this year. My home's just been trying to do too much,

and he's not looked like the QB we're used to. So he's in that same boat where it's just like, you're right. If he doesn't correct these mistakes, you know, there's not just a coaching change coming up. There's going to be a total change of the offense where it's like, we can't trust the ball in your hands. We're going to take the ball out of your hands and give it to arguably the best player

in our team in Saquan-Barkley. So I'm with you on that one. It's bad right now with him and what he's doing with the ball. Patrick Mahomes is so interesting. You know, I watched a bunch of his press conference from this week where he's talking about performance

and so many players when they talk, they sound like automaton's, right? Like they're trying to answer so carefully. Patrick Mahomes didn't say anything revelatory when he was speaking, but he has a way of speaking in sort of his tone of voice and his rhythm and his cadence that makes it sound like he's telling you something natural and human that is revealing about a quarterback. He talked about, forget about, he hasn't been happy with his performance and not talking about stats, but where he's putting the ball or where he's not putting the ball, how he's finding

people, how he's running the team, things like that. All things that we are naturally seeing. But the way he says it, I don't know if you ever watch this or even sort of thought about this, but he says it in a way that it's just so natural and easy. And maybe this is because he's had so many years of doing great. He has so much confidence he can say, I'm not playing at my best right now and not feel like he's going to have to be defensive about it. But I find the way he communicates to be fascinating. No, he's playing bad and he's three and no. It's absolutely terrifying as a fan of any team in this league.

By the way. Yeah. Speaking of bad, my exact decision this week is a game you just referred to, the Chicago Bears, I think we'll get him at two and a half in the contest. They're now at three. And while those guys have been coming in on this team. They love them. They love them.

So, you know, last night I was in New York and I had dinner with my, buddy Matt, everyone knows Matt. Matt, I was explaining to Matt as an investor with me in our betting opportunities this year that I was going with the Bears this week. And obviously, like, Matt and I were going to Bears games together in 1985. His parents had season tickets. We went to every home game for the Bears. We went to every playoff game together. I went instead of his sister. We have sweated the Bears. He went with me to the Bears Super Bowl in 2006. Like three weeks after his third kid was born, he left home and went to that

Bear Super Bowl with me. Like, we have been through wars with this team. How many times did you guys watch Ferris Beeler's Day off together? Oh, my God. So, you know, talk about my life story, right? It was literally shot in the ravine, at the house in the ravine, across from me. It's crazy.

It's crazy, right? Where's Cam's dad's house? I've always wondered that. Is that actually near Chicago? That's in Highland Park. Oh, shit. That's the house I'm talking about. It's like behind my house.

They still got all the glass? Well, I don't remember. I haven't lived there in a long time. But here's my point. I went through all the reasons of why I was betting the bears. Yeah. Why we as investors were investing in the bears? Why are we?

Well, at the end of it, he looked at me and said, Listen, everything he, I'm like the five minutes at the end of the game for the Rams, they were so lucky. Everything went right. They only had a 5% chance of winning. Everything went wrong for the Bears. I went to the whole deep dive. And then he looked at me, he goes, so we're going to bet on Eber to Flus and Williams against McVeigh and Stafford. Yeah.

And I said, yes. Yes, we are. And if we need to do a capital call at some point in mid-season because of calls like this, I'm gonna be okay with it. Yeah, I would say the only fear is, are we walking into it again? Is this like the Titans last week? We're taking the lesser coach, the lesser QB against,

you know, a matchup that we think is good. Like I totally agree. Like to me, this is really a bet on this bear's defense. Like this is a perfect matchup for you guys being able to attack this Rams team. But yeah, it's tough to get there, especially because the number's up to minus three now. So it's like, man.

Well, I think in the contest it'll be a two and a half. It's not gonna be a three and a half because this number is at minus three and it's gonna go back down to two and a half. Would you say that way? I don't know because like you just said, like every professional I talked to for the most part is on this bear side.

They like this bear's side. They like the value here and it's, you know, just what we talked about. Like a couple little mistakes here and there, they can fix it. They're pretty damn good team. I think one of the first things trying to do is you know move away from swift or it's like at the end of the day it's the other

line's the problem i don't know if swift's the biggest problem his dance in the backfield's not helping but it's like okay if that's the one move they're gonna try to make this week and maybe that will work out for us but um they can't have Caleb williams thrown 50 times even though against his ram's team that's how you attack this team it's like they want that though because eventually he'll make him a stick and they'll capitalize on if he turns the ball over that's what's going to keep hurting this team. So this is a tough game to me, but you're right. If it's two and a half, it is very tempting to put into our contest because it's a good number against a ramps team that you just said it. Like that was their perfect game last week. I just can't see them having back-to-back

weeks that way. There has never been a player in the NFL who gets three yards faster than DeAndre Swift. Every time he gets the ball, he's going so fast it looks like he's going to gain 50 yards in a play, three yards later he gets tackled and it's a useless play. Agree with me, right? Because you were an Eagles fan. You've seen it. The guy's shifty, he dances. It looks like it's going to be an exciting play. He gains three yards. It's also like I don't, I'll never get why you guys signed them. I felt like you already had a good backfield. It never made sense. And now you think back, it's like it's 24 million. It just, it is a weird, weird move for the bears to get them. So I agree with you dance is way too much.

Well, listen, the only other thing I like about this is, you know, Chris Raybon, his last seven bets. Last weekend, he went seven and oh. I listened to the action pod with Raybon and Stucky in their Sunday six-pack. Raybon had the Bears. So that gives me a little bit of hope, a little bit of hope. Teams coming off a 14-point plus comeback, 41% against the spread. in the next game. This is the ultimate buy, low, sell high. Go bears. Hungry bears are violent bears. New Orleans at Atlanta, don't laugh at me, don't laugh at my joy

and my passion. Come on. New Orleans at Atlanta, it's two and a half. Look, it was at one and a half. You liked Atlanta. This is to me, it's like the Eagles and Bucks game, though. There's so many injuries on the Falcons offensive line. Like, Drew Dalman is out. He's on IR. And he is the best player at his position in the NFL, arguably. Caleb McGarry day-to-day did not practice on Wednesday. Home division faves, 45% against the spreads in 2016. I told you the line was bad. You couldn't get there.

You thought the line should move more because these old line were on. I told you I moved it by half a point. Made it two and a half. It's now two and a half. So yeah, I'm with you. It's like, I really love this line. I still love it. But I know it's going to be harder to get you there, but I wish you had bet it at one and a half.

It feels pretty good to be holding a one-a-half ticket in this matchup. It's like it feels like this number is going to matter in this one. It's just going to be a close, ugly game. Went through Evans Trends, their car tends to struggle in these kind of matchups against Atlanta all in the road. So another nice spot for Atlanta trend-wise as well. I still think the Saints are a little overrated. I just think the number says that. It's like, I told you, if there was no injury to this Falcons team, I probably would have this number at three.

three and a half. All right. I did move it to two and a half out of respect to the injuries to they have up front, but it's like at what point do we come back on the other side? It's just and it's Kirk Cousins at 1 p.m., right? We always joked. Like this is when you want to bet Kirk Cousins at 1 p.m. in these type of game. So I get your hesitation though. It's like it's a big deal. But on this flip side, the Saints, they lost their all pro center as well. And like we saw they could not run the ball. We'll see if Kamara practices. He didn't practice this week yet either. So, okay, if take some hills out, if Kumar is banged up,

now you're taking away the run game, which is the only reason the Saints were as good as they've looked these past three weeks, you know, it all starts adding up where it's like, how do you not take Atlanta here? So just something to keep your eye on. If they do have a bunch of injuries to this backfield for this Saints team, it's just another reason for you to want to take Atlanta.

Look, it's going to be interesting, right? We're trying to get five for the contest. We don't love putting in that many favorites. and I feel like there's probably three or four favorites that we are both going, between the two of us, we're going to have strong opinions on. Bears in Atlanta. I would say normally you're right,

but on certain weeks, yeah, like, you got to take some, sometimes you got to take these little favorites, you know? Take the number that's in front of you. We have ugly dogs, though. I mean, fuck, man. We're about to go through it. We have like three just ugly dogs.

So the mirror image here, in terms of the spread and the side that we like, Minnesota at Green Bay, this one's been bouncing around. It was a two and a half. It touched three. It's back down to two and a half. I think it might get back to three.

At least that's what the juice is indicating. You liked Minnesota in this game. I think I've come around to it. Well, we bet. I don't know if you bet it, but I bet Green Bay at minus two on Sunday. And now I've come back, and I have bet the three in Minnesota.

But the pros actually love Green Bay here. And I'm just, I just don't agree where it's like, I feel like the advantage, right, goes to the Vikings with Jordan Love coming off this injury. It's like, is he rushing back? You know, I'll send you the clip or maybe the film of it, but it's like Jordan Love has done well against Brian Flores in his defense. Like he knows how to attack it. Same with the floor. And, you know, that might be the reason why there's so much professional money coming on Green Bay. So this is a game where, I have other dogs I like more than the Vikings. Maybe I'll sit this one out just out of respect to all these different groups coming in so heavy on this Green Bay team. But I think me on the same page where it's like I trust this Vikings defense against love. And the Vikings' offense is just on another level right now.

So yeah, this is definitely an interesting line. The trends have been put out, though. They're not, they don't favor these three and no teams that are dogs this week. Right. But this is where it gets tricky. the trends do favor the road dogs in these division games by a wide margin. Right, right, right. The home favorites, the short home favorites, three points or less,

45% against the spread the past 20 years. Home division fades overall 45% against the spread since 2016. So the Vikings are on the right side of that trend. They're on the wrong set of the undefeated trend. So then we got to take it down to the base level of the team. teams and the personnel. Right. And I'm kind of with you.

The Vikings defense, it's not like Seattle's defense where they've beaten up on Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissette and a couple of high school kids playing for Miami. They confused Rock Purdy. They confused CJ Stroud. Like two of the better quarterbacks, by the way, against the blitz, two of the quarterbacks who thrive against the blitz, they were doing so much mixing and matching with their defense. They made those quarterbacks look bad.

that's why they lost those games. Vikings defense is number one in DVOA, started the season with five sacks and three straight games, first time since 91. Like, this defense's really good and they're going against a quarterback who may be rushing back from a pretty bad injury. So I'm less, I'm actually more around to it, I think,

than you are at this point, certainly than you were than I was on Tuesday. Yeah, it's just, once again, all the professional money come in, I have to respect it. These guys know what they're doing. Respect. Respect. Well, here's one we can agree on. Please. And by the way, we do need to go into the foxhole. So it's very possible we could go into the foxhole with Minnesota. No. Okay. That was a hard no. Hard pass. Very hard pass. Simon Hunter. That was like a disgusted. Don't talk to me, pass. All right.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis Simon says when it was two it's down to one and a half moved almost immediately when you made the announcement that it was Simon says basically one and a half everywhere look

I think the Steelers defense is mitigated by the Colts top ranked top ranked pass blocking O line the Steelers have a terrible offense I don't think it has an advantage over the Colt middling defense. Yeah.

This is one of the bigger luck ranking games this week with Indy as the unlucky team. It's in the contest at one and a half. Say your peace. We love it. The fear is, I'll say with the pushback is when I talked to other pros, what their hesitation is.

Because this is a pros verse Joe's. The pros absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough of this Pittsburgh team. I was in Atlantic City yesterday with the three different sports books at each guy. I was like, who is the most money coming in on right now? It's always going to be the Eagles, especially in Atlantic City. It's where its proximity is. Number two, without a doubt was Pittsburgh.

Like just you can't stop getting enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now you're saying it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh compared to this Colts team. So very telling because I joked with him. I go, yeah, why don't you go back up to two then? And he just gave me a side eye look of like, we don't fucking need to. We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here. I think me and you, our only real hesitation here is Anthony Richardson.

Like this guy is going to burn us on one or two plays. Me and you know that when we bet this. It's just part of the deal here, especially when he's going against, you know, a top two, top three defense in this league. It's going to happen. But I think it nailed it. Like this O line is going to be the difference to me in this game. They're going to fall control with Jonathan Taylor.

I believe you had over 100 yards, two touchdowns last week against the Bears. It's the same scenario here where it's like, okay, the bears, the greatest strength they had was they're passing rush and their pass attack in the secondary. Same thing to go with this Pittsburgh team. It's like they dominate teams that they have the team when teams have to pass against them. When you can run the ball, control the clock, that's when they struggle, right? So this Colts team, this is a, they need to get right spot. They just have not put together a complete game, even though it looked like they did against that Bears team. That was just a really sloppy game overall.

So this to me is a nice spot. Historically, Anthony Richardson in his young career, when he faces really good defense as he performs really well against them. So hopefully that trend continues here, chat. It's just really about trust the number as well. Like I have the Colts is a small favorite in this matchup. You know, I'm getting two points of value

compared to my model against a Pittsburgh team that we talked about. Eventually, it's gonna go the other way, right? Justin Field isn't this squeaky clean, never turn the ball over kind of guy. He eventually has major mistakes. He's just been very blessed. He's not been putting in those situations at all

because they've been playing with these leads. So, yeah, I feel like eventually is going to catch up to him. We would get some good value on a number. Now we're getting it, right? There are three no against the spread, three no straight up this year, Pittsburgh. Eventually it's going to run out. I feel like it does here.

Terrible, terrible spot for Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as a road favorite. We know he obviously won this year as a road favorite. in his career, Mike Tomlin is a road favorite, is as bad as he is good as an underdog. So this is a spot where you want to fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. All right, we know that one's getting in. Washington, Arizona, Arizona is a three and a half point favorite. This line is held firm.

I know. I'm really surprised because it still feels to me like we are getting the Cardinals at a really good time. Like their offense is improving, their defense is improving. Again, it's probably a buy low, sell high spot, maybe the most obvious buy low, sell high on the board because of Washington and what they did. I just got the sense, just looking at your face this second. And the way you said, that's true, that you were wavering on that.

I'm not, I bet it. The wavering is more just, I don't get why there's so many professionals going on the other side taking this commander's team where it just feels like the obvious trap where it's like, this line hasn't moved too much in your opinion. I thought it moved too much. And a lot of guys are like, no, I think this is where it should be in this type of matchup. And it's like, man, I get, Danos did look amazing. Like, we've never seen anything like that. This kid, you know, one week, he can't find the end zone, right? They, they, they They were driving at will against the Giants, couldn't find the red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss.

Everything he did turned into a touchdown. So it's like, me and you have to ride those extremes here. We don't know what kind of get we're getting here. But one thing I know what I'm going to get on the Cardinal side is I like the way they're set up right now. I think the way they are built is the same way the bucks were built against this team. It's like they can ball control and have guys on the outside that can beat this commander's team. And defensively, they have guys that can get stops for them. Now, their best E tackle is probably gone for this season, this Arizona team,

but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week. So, you know, not total cancel out. It's a big deal for their defense. But, you know, it's a young team that they lost the veteran on the defensive front. But, you know, this number is just a tricky one where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like I'm missing something here. And I don't know what that is because to me, it's just touch a letdown spot.

Especially, holy shit, man. Can Jane Daniels get any more smoke blown up his ass this week? It's been ridiculous where, yeah, it's well deserved. But these conversations of these guys taking the victory laps of being like, see, I told you you should have went one over Williams. It's like, Jesus Christ, man. These people are the fucking worst. These are the same people that were touting Bryce Young to be the number one pick for six months.

They just, they're no difference. So I don't think this is at all comparable to Bryce Young, CJ from last year. The gap between Caleb and Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why would you take a guy who's two, three years older than Caleb Williams? It just didn't make sense when they're playing style is not that much different. So, yeah, for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation, the fear that I have right now with this Arizona team because something just seems off for this number.

But if three and a half, we think Arizona is a good team. We think they're a playoff team. They are. This is a game they should smack the hell out of us Washington team after that type of game. So this, this is, again, the only fear here is we're walking to a team and that's just on our role in Washington, right? Everything is just clicking for them. But this is historically through Evans Trends, this is a perfect spot to fade, Jaden Daniels. Look, the line has moved two points. You're getting a little bit of blowback from wise guys. Are we in the foxhole right now? I'll do it. I love it. We're in the foxhole.

with the Arizona Cardinals. Let's climb down into the foxhole. No better team to be in the Foxhole with than the Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend Janet. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip, just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast

We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white color or something here? Just a second.

What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious.

Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky. I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky. I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.

Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before.

And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us

on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, I said,

you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it. So by stopping at the education section of a resume,

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Learn why at tear the paper ceiling.org. Brought to you by Opportunity at Work and the Ad Council. It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month. Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. Jay, and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. When you hear the word healing, what does that mean for you?

What came right back to mine are the three P's that I live by. I'll go through the process of healing so that patience, that perseverance and that prayer equals healing to me. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools, real conversations, and the mindset shifts you need to move forward. You matter too. Your mental health is your responsibility. Not your wife.

Not your partner. Not your children. Not the church. Not the pastor. Not the council. It's your responsibility. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it. Listen to Just Heel with Dr. J on the IHeart Radio app.

Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Guess what time it is, Simon? It is time for our big book. Balls, Bed of the Week, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John, as you know, makes the greatest. And it's one of the reasons why we are undefeated so far this year with our big balls

bad of the week. And it's why we are so comfortable going with the depleted. Run down Los Angeles Chargers plus seven and a half as home underdogs against the Kansas City chiefs. Simon, we said it before we came on the air, but we were discussing what we were going to do. I said, I think we've got to go with the Chargers. You blanched. Everything about our philosophy, our history, our passion for betting says we take the Chargers here. Are you my betting, buddy?

I am. No, I love the Chargers. My whole hesitation, I think you know it is, this was eight and a half, we both bet it. I don't know if you bet it eight and a half or got it at eight, but it was like, it was at a really nice number. Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet it again with you. Like, I love this number. I love this spot. I'll put in the contest.

And it's really about Mahomes and this Chief's team. I feel like they're still getting way too much respect. On the flip side, this Chargers team is banged up as they are. They can kind of keep this game close, right? We talk about that. there's ways for them to stay in this game and keep this one close. So it's obviously we're both hoping it's Herbert.

I'd feel way more confident taking this number, but I think the number is saying that Herbert's not gonna play, but I'm looking at the live, just since you mentioned this game, this number's already moving to seven a couple books. So I would say most of the guys listen to the show love this game as well. Hopefully you guys are all right,

because I like it too. I just don't have this, you have way more confident, I would say, in Tyler Heineke, this John Harbaal team than I do. So I'm definitely kind of trusting Mahomes isn't right yet. And this Chargers defense will be able to get some takeaways. So let's take the ugly seven and a half.

I'm with you, brother. An ugly seven and a half where Joe Alt, Rishon Slater, likely out. Joey Bosa did not practice. Joe Alt might be out too. Yeah. Justin Herbert was limited. This is a luck game. It's favoring the chargers.

The Chiefs have graded out as the lucky team so far in our luck rankings, Simon. But I'm not worried because if Taylor Heineke goes, backup QBs 55% against the spread since 2021. Dogs of six plus points or more. Eight and five straight up, 12 or 1 against the spread through the first three weeks. I am not, not afraid. Oh, man. I didn't know Joe Alt was out. To me, that's a bigger deal. Because now you're down both tackles, shit, man. I mean, this takes some big balls, Chad, making this bet.

We got big balls, Simon. Our big balls are supported by the underwear that we put on every Sunday. It's the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It is the second skin that has given me the confidence to make bets

like the Los Angeles Chargers without anyone on their offensive line. They are giving free runs to the Kansas City Chiefs defensive line, and we're still going with them. When you're truly comfortable, you can be better. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John. Get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites.

I feel like I'm going to have a hard time getting you to get the charters into the contest. We've got a couple more games here. Cleveland at the Raiders. You've been all over this. it was at minus one. It actually moved from Cleveland minus one to Raiders minus one, now at Raiders minus two.

What do you have this power rated at? Do you still have an edge in this game? Are we worried? Well, let's answer that. Yeah, I got it at minus three. So yeah, I still show value here. You know, I did have it at minus three and a half. I adjusted it down a little bit

just because I think Minshu is just struggling a little bit and they don't really have a run game right now. But, you know, my view of this chat is just Watson has historically been horrible. If you look at it out, I think a Browns fan did a chart. And it was basically of all the quarterbacks they've had since I think 2001. If you go look at that list of these names of these quarterbacks, Chad, you'd be amazed at some of these names. You know who's number two worst quarterback in that entire span? DeShon Watson.

So it's pretty telling how bad they've been. you know it's not going to get any better we talked about they've already they've lost another starter from their offensive line miles garrett i mean what by week eight it's probably going to be shut down getting surgery because this team just is not going to have a winning record um it's just a nice spot to attack this team it's just i just can't get over how bad they are and then you factor in like all these trends i haven't had about the browns traveling from east coast to west Coast. Historically, they've been terrible. You know, the Raiders as well.

Raiders at home, I know they just got walloped and embarrassed by the Panthers, but they usually play well at home. You know, so I'm just thinking about the Max Crosby Wilkins matchup with this O line. It's just, how does Watson beat us? They're gonna fold them up, man. He's gonna be a launcher in this game.

It's just, it's just such a great match of the Raiders team. That's why you've seen this number move. And let's see the action app real quick. Yeah, it's, I mean, it's professionals. 65% of the money right now is coming in on the Vikings, even though 50% of the tickets right now is on the Browns.

Yeah, so it's, I don't know. I do really like the Raiders. I know it's going to be hard to convince you on this one just because there are so many questions about this team, but I'll send you some of these trends that Evan has about this Browns team, man, but man, this is just such a fade spot. They won't be a team I'd back at all,

the Browns, until they do make a switch a quarterback position. You know, their one win this year, their one cover, was against the Jaguars team that just looks lost. So there's a lot of reasons to like this Vegas team to bounce back here in a spot they usually win. So here's the one thing I'll say about historical team trends. I don't care about them.

Like to me, they're not indicative of anything because these teams change so much year to year, circumstances change. I don't care about historical team trends. I think what's interesting to me is how, if we are going to say Jalen Hertz is having turnover issues and one season is circumstantial and the beginning of a second season becomes habitual,

Deshawn Watson has reached post-habitual just bad stages, right? Like we tried making so many excuses for this guy over the last two plus years and it's just not there and I think that's why everyone is starting to feel more comfortable betting against him

like people are always in the back of their mind worried that he's going to pop off right that he's going to have that game that he's going to find the magic that he's going to be who he was to paraphrase Rick Petino Bernie Kozar is not walking through that door like he's just not a very good quarterback right now

So I'm with you. I'm with you. And I'm super excited to now have the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Bears as short favorites in the contest this week. Or should we go with Baltimore minus two and a half? Which feels like something that we want to do and fading an undefeated MVP leading team for a underperforming team that feels a little schizophrenic whose defense has not performed well that almost gave up a 25 point lead or whatever it was, 22 point lead to the Dallas Cowboys. Let's go Ravens. I know. I think we both know this is what we're supposed to do,

but it is horribly terrifying, especially when you just think about this Ravens team right now, they've been dominant against the run. Like I think there's second best defense EPA per play against the run, but it's because teams just because pass it against them. I mean, that's been really, that's been a problem this year. Like teams are able to pass the ball through the air against this Ravens team. Now we have the MVP coming in with, you know, a bunch of nameless Joe's, but he's making it work.

Like when you don't know who he's going to go to, who he's going to have to force the ball to, it's terrifying. I mean, if you, I don't know if you rewatch that Jaguar. his game might be too painful but um i loved it even though i lost money obviously it's just like he's so good he's so good like every ball was right where it need to be he was protecting his receivers hitting guys in stride i get the hesitation for everybody for this one but me and chad always played these kind of spots teams aren't going 16 17 and oh they're going to lose games they're going to drop games and you know maybe he's too hot and we're a little too early stepping in front of him here

but historically this is the number we do play and i mean we even talk about the action app right now all the bets all the money i believe it's 80 percent it's all on this bill's team this number hasn't budged yeah not budged so sports books know this is going to be the number one teased team this week right why would you not take the bills up day and a half fuck i don't did it. I don't know, I can't remember the last time Josh Allen lost by more than a touchdown. I just, I've been thinking about before we came on here. I was trying to think of that game. And it's like, I really can't do it. This guy just always plays it tough. So, um, we're basically betting on last possession. Our guy Lamarri's got it. He drives a field and our 80 year old kicker

Justin Tucker kicks one through for us. We cover this number. Like, because this is found technique. He's coming back to us. This just feels like such a sharp number. Like there's a reason they're holding it here at two and a half and Chad knows as well like the same reason I wanted to bet lamar last week you got him under three if you have him under a field goal he's 23 and 7 against the spread in his career so I just blindly got to keep betting this spot I mean it just made me so much money over the years I just keep doing it so yeah of all the ones you've talked about like I could see us leaving this one out just because this one really does make me sick to my stomach like we even talk about another game that makes me sick to my stomach but I feel more

in betting it just because there's reasons to bet it where we're literally our biggest reason for bed in this right now is just the bills have played i'd say the cardinals are all right Miami's dog shit and the jaguars don't look any better so it's like we're kind of betting on is he really this good or is he just been beating up on bad defenses that's kind of what this bet is right now so it sounds great we're we're saying to Josh out and prove it to us again but that's what it feels we're doing here chat taking the ram's it's like okay you've done great, you've looked great to start this year, now play a really good team that's one and two

and desperate at home in prime time on Sunday night. This is going to be a great test for him and this Bill's team. So, yeah, the more we talk about now, I'm starting to feel a little better about this Ravens team. Takes nothing but blind faith to convince any better. All they got to do is talk about it, Fernon, be like, of course I'm betting this game. You went from sick to my stomach to feeling confident.

Not confident. I would not say confident. Josh Allen, I'm telling you, if you watch that Jaguars game, he looks like a man on a mission right now. He was amazing, and that is the one thing that worries me is this Ravens defense is not great up the middle right now. And like the Jaguars were parting the sea for Josh Allen, and he would just do whatever he wanted to do.

He was toying with them. Kyle Hamilton disappointed. I mean, have you heard his name at all this season? Not at all. And like last year we loved him. He was everywhere. He was everywhere. So that's been the biggest difference.

It's like whatever, you know, Mike McDonald took with him to Seattle, they have not figured that out in Baltimore. Well, speaking of Mike McDonald, the one thing I will say before we get to him in Seattle. I feel like you're passing on a game we talked about and we love. I am. Jaguars. Well, I thought we weren't going to talk about it because, well, because now the number's down to six. And so, like, the value is gone.

There's six and a halfs out there. I do want, before we move too fast, I want fans to know, like two games, I think we're not going to talk about. I love Jaguars. Chad loves it too. You can get six and a half out there. I still like the Panthers. I don't know if you're as lukewarm or warm on the Panthers,

but you can still get a plus four, four and a half at a couple books on this Panthers team, just before we totally move off of them. I'm not, I like the Jags. I think it's a good spot for them. I'm not convinced on the Panthers right now. because I think it's a it's the reverse of buy low sell high I think you're buying high on the Panthers and I think you're selling low I'm telling you the only professionals betting the Panthers still the public fucking hates them everyone is betting the Bengals

that's how it is man they just who you're gonna bet on Joe Burrow or any Dalton they're pretty simple creatures that way they go up I guess I'll go Andy Dalton I guess I'll go Joe Burrow then it's like all right yeah of course that's what the public is going to do I'm just, I'm skeptical that the Panthers can do it again. You know what I mean? Like we've lost so much money on this team. We did make, we did make some of it back last week, but it was the exact right spot to make it back.

And this feels like the exact right spot to lose it again. Coming home, a ton of confidence, thinking, oh my God, we're actually a good team. We just needed a capable course. quarterback and they are going against a team that is like needs a win for their lungs. They need to win this game. Their season is over if they don't win this game. Yeah. And I get where you're coming from.

I think people think the same way. But it's just I don't think it matters because Joe Burrow is great as he is. It's like they don't have the pieces defensively. And I saw Chase hasn't practiced this week. He might have a bad shoulder. So he might miss this game. which is another big deal to this bingo's offense. So I get your hesitation, man.

I don't feel great about it either. I just think Annie Dalton's giving them such a spark. I think this is a totally different team. This is the team I felt they were gonna be coming into this season where it's like, they have offensive weapons they can beat you with and their defense is bad, but they're young and there's ways they can attack you defensively.

So you're right. Like if you wanna wait and see them do it another game, I totally get it because it's like, I'm not standing on. of my soapbox here saying this needs to be one of our five. I just, people need to know. I did bet this panther's side and, you know, I would take it down at the three and a half. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves,

I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nasree. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense.

And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball like, after you go through a training camp with that Isaiah, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. This is my best friend, Janet. And we have been joined at the hips since high school.

Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip, just a little bit bigger hips. wider. This is a podcast we're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drink.

Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here? Just take it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? I would. How did you believe? I would buy it. Cut through the defense like a

hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If a baby is giggling in the back seat, they're probably happy. If a baby is crying in the back seat, they're probably hungry. But if a baby is sleeping in the back seat, will you remember they're even there?

When you're distracted, stressed, or not usually the one who drives them, the chances of forgetting them in the back seat are much higher. It can happen to anyone. Parked cars get hot fast and can be deadly. So get in the habit of checking the back seat when you leave. The message from NHTSA and the Ad Council. It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month.

Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. Jay, and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. When you hear the word healing, what does that mean for you? What came right back to mine are the three P's that I live by. I'll go through the process of healing so that patience, that perseverance and that prayer equals healing to me. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools, real conversations, and the mindset shifts you need to move forward and thrive. You matter too. Your mental health is your responsibility, not your wife, not your partner, not your children,

not the church, not the pastor, not the council. It's your responsibility. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it. Listen to Just Here With Dr. Jay on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Mike McDonald is getting, you know, the, he's a brilliant young coach. Oh my God, what a culture changer he is. Yeah. Treatment around the media this week.

It's what happens when you've got the number one rated defense because you've beaten up on Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissette, and Skyler Thompson and. Life is good. This line has moved aggressively. It's down to three and a half visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday night. you like Seattle. I think Seattle is not as good

as it's played. You think they are as good. I think Detroit is better than they have played and getting a team at its exact peak right now. Yeah, because I mean,

we joke all the time. I mean, about the same thing we just said with the bills, right? It's like, who would they really beat? They still beat them.

Like, you can't say the same for Cincinnati Bengals who lost to New England at home and lost the commanders at home, right? So.

Yeah. Got a play is in front of you. in the year here, teams actually can show up, especially with a new coach. I felt like the Seattle was the professional side. Clearly it was, right? We've gone for four and a half now down to three and a half. So it's like, okay, at least I'm on the same side as the pros. That makes me feel a little better. But you're right. Like, is the number moved too much now? Would I touch it? No, it's down to three and a half now. I'm happy to sit on my four or four and a half ticket and let this one play out here. But they're just, I told you my main questions right now is about golf. He's not

looked right through three weeks, they should be dominating these teams they've played. Like their defense is so much better this year than they have been in previous seasons. I mean, it's just glaring. And they're running attack where it's like you guys can just lean on these teams, bullyball. Like you have the guys up front and it just has not worked. So I won't make this one over five, right, because the numbers move too much. And I don't think you're anywhere close to my confidence on the Seattle team. But yeah, this is, I don't know.

know if the Lions lost this game, I'd have to totally re-evaluate them. Because right now I have them Power Right as number two best team in the NFC. And it's like if they drop this one, man, it just can be such a bad look. So yeah, I'm with you. It's like I feel I feel a little bit about hesitation about this one as well. I don't know who our five are right now, but I do know our five is loaded with a lot of favorites. We're going to put Indy in there, obviously. I feel strongly we're going to put Chicago in there. I think it's like, I mean, you got to get chargers in, right? Our big bowls.

I mean, we got to get the chargers in. Yeah. But, like, after that, Arizona. Love Arizona. Yeah, like, I love Tampa. I know you're not there on Tampa. If you love Tampa, I could get there on Tampa. Like, you know, I don't, I'm.

If Kumar is out, could I get you there in Atlanta come Sunday? Probably. I think we're going to have to wait until Sunday. I think we're going to have to wait until Sunday to really sort of nail it. I don't think we're ready for anything. We'll definitely going to lock in our five, though. So if people want to see them, right, they can hop on and click on us and see who we picked right for our five. But yeah, I would say there's like seven teams right now.

It feels like we get there. And even I know you're not loving the Jaguars, but if there's six and a half in contest, it's kind of tempting with all the trends that point to this team where historically we've just seen Houston. They don't do well as these big favorites. And, you know, not saying the book is that on CJ. but he is really bad against man coverage and he's great against zone. You know who runs the most man coverage in all of football?

The shitty ice Jaguars team. So it's like there are some reasons too like this Jaguars team outside of just the trends. But I'm with you. Like this week, we're heavy on the chalk home favorites. All right, let's get to our parlay section here. Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the Moneyline,

Underdog Moneyline Parlay from Bet365. Each week we are giving out a two-team moneyline dog parlay and bet 365 boosts the odds and highlights it on that site all weekend long under both game pages. Our week four boosted Underdog Moneyline Parlay, we are going with the Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. find the boosts under either the Colts or Bucks game pages on Bet365. Remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo, where your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead,

even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at Bet365. We also got to do our Moneyline underdog round Robin. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday. Someday, there will come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday.

Here's my suggestions. Ready? Mm-hmm. Chargers. Chargers. You are sick. You are sick. All right. Chargers.

Minnesota. There's no way. I love Minnesota. Tampa Bay. Love Tampa. I mean, we got to do indie. Got to do indie. Panthers, Jags?

Love Panthers, and let's definitely do Jaguars, right? All right. So who do we just say? Minnesota, Indy, Tampa, Panthers and Jags? Yep. Look at us back-to-back weeks taking the money line on this Panthers team. Because you're a coward and don't want to put the chargers in there, which is fine. Give me your biggest bets right now.

You know the numbers. is it just Mahomes doesn't look doesn't lose to his division he doesn't cover but he doesn't lose to his division don't give me your excuses what'd you ask me at before what are your biggest bets um I'm pretty spread out I would say the cold stuffing are one of my bigger bets right now um Tampa Arizona Vegas and the Ravens after we get off the air I'll probably hit the Chargers even more because I just feel like the seven and a half is going to disappear probably going to wait and see what the Kumar news is like I was having invested in

Atlanta one and a half I've not bet them at two and a half yet but if he is out Kumar I'm probably going to attack that Atlanta line even more so yeah right now earliest biggest bets we'll go Colts Tampa Ravens and Vegas give me your Scout roulette because you won last week you had the Ravens I had Miami What the fuck you had Miami and Scoutrelette? Yeah I went with Denver and then Evan like did his segment and like talked me out of it. Oh you son of a bitch. Yeah exactly. Ah shit. Oh man I got a double dip I guess I'll go with the fucking colts. Oh dude I was going to take the colts I love them. You know what I'm doing you're taking the colts I'm taking Arizona okay but I really

want the Colts. All right, before we get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research. Evan Abrams for the final word. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. All right, guys, well, it's time to Jink Simon this week. So let's start with Colts. I'm going to keep this super simple because it really doesn't have to be much more complicated than this. When opponents score more than 20 points versus a Justin Fields-led team, they're 21 and 0 straight up. All 13 field wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less, with their teams averaging 13 points per game.

Richardson just needs to put points on the board, and you'll win the bet. So hopefully that happens. Let's move on to the next AFC team here. We're going to talk about the Broncos. Now, you have to understand the process in putting these notes together. I'm trying to predict a little bit of who you guys are going to like during the show, give a little momentum, you know, reinforcement is always important. So we're going to go with the Broncos here.

I think we like them against the Jets this week. But the Jets schedule. Jets are the only third team in the last eight. 80 years to play the first three games of a season with an 11-day span. 2018 Jets and the 2013 Eagles, so the other two teams. So the 24 Jets are the only teams to pose a winning record during that three-game span. But also, those other two teams lost by 17 plus in week four and both finish the season under 500 against a spread.

So maybe a little bit of impact there. And it's also worth noting. This is the first time Sean Baten's team will start the season as a dog in four straight since his rookie year in 2006 with New Orleans. And Peyton's teams as a dog, September October, 30, 13, and one against the number. So pretty good and done pretty well this year. And now I got to answer Simon's question from before. So this was a quick lookup, so I'm pretty sure this one's right.

But Josh Allen's last 49 starts, he's only lost by seven or more once. Bengals in the playoffs in 2023. Lots of losses, but by four, three, six, et cetera. Pretty crazy, but this is why you might want to look at Baltimore. So it is a tough spot for the Bills. Third straight night game and listed as a road dog. Only the third team in that spot in the last decade. Those teams 0 and 3 straight up, but more importantly,

they're allowing 35 points per game. So hopefully Baltimore and Roamar can get the offense going. And also, just a unique spot all around. Bills are 3 and 0. Ravens are 1 and 2 and the bills are underdogs in this game. A 3 and 0 team has only been. a dog to a team with one winner less six times last 20 years. They're one in five straight up, losing by almost 10 points per game. So signs point to Baltimore, but see how it goes, guys.

It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. All of a sudden, I think your reason for your quick turn there from sick to your stomach from feeling confident. Now we feel even more confident. What I'm not going to do is put Baltimore in as my scooge roulette. I'm going to stick with Arizona, even though I've never felt better about the Baltimore Ravens. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and this just in. New Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10 in place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Ceno Show podcast, each episode invites you into a raw, unfiltered conversations about recovery, resilience, and redemption. On a recent episode, I sit down with actor, cultural icon Danny Trail,

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Listen to Just Heel with Dr. Jay on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the day. the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season.

And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come until he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs.

This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.