The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 5

Episode Date: October 7, 2022

The NFL slate is unusually exciting to Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter this week, offering a number of strong plays from Thursday to Monday night. Together the guys discuss their fondness for the Ravens and Bucs this week, before resorting to childish name-calling when it comes to an AFC East showdown. Plus we get a Big Balls Bet of the Week, an underdog round robin, and plenty more. #volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites presented by Fandul. Football season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code favorites and download the Fandual app today to make every moment more this football season. Must be 21 or older and in select states call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan.

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in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-978-89. Call 1-800-2-2-470-0 in Wyoming or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast. From the volume podcast network, I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, Mr. Siam. I'm in Hunter. Packed show today, buddy. Packed, packed show. Tighter than a suitcase that's expanded and will no longer fit in the overhead space.

Yep. A lot of calls to get to. A lot of conversation about this week. A lot of pick flipping. Hopefully people forgive us. But I think that's how it is sometimes. For certain weeks you come in, right, Chad, with a plan. And the plans change.

Kind of get in the mouth, a lot of information in a couple days. It's blown up. Yeah, yeah, exactly. As a reminder, we will go through our final five, which we will put in the app on Sunday. Things change. You got to follow the Faves 5 in the Action Network app to get where we land because things do change. We're going to finalize our big balls bed of the week. We will do our scooch roulette.

We will do our Moneyline underdog round robin parlay. But first, as we do every week, let's get to some sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? We had a lot of things to say the other day. As always, the wise guys will call you and give you your take on what we talked about. What do they say? Very rare, I will be woken up in my sleep by many calls.

So basically, say I have three phones. I got one phone I don't even bring in the room. You got the other phone that's just on silent mode, which is pretty much just text and other things like that. And I want my emergency phone, which I keep off silent just because it's, you know, I feel like anyone, if you're living alone, you got ring cameras. I mean, you need to be alerted, especially for someone like me that has cash. Anyone wants to attempt it, I keep that thing loaded and I got both exits with cameras.

So don't even worry about it. But basically, that's my always keep that one phone off silent. and, you know, get the first call, hit ignore, right? 1 a.m., reach over my phone, just hit ignore. Get another call. I roll over and see the guy's name. It's a pro I respect. Ignore.

Because, again, it's late. It's like 1.30 at this time. And I get another call from another guy. It's like, holy shit, something must be going on. I thought somebody either got robbed or something big was going on, a big bet coming in. So I answer it. Little bit I know, Chazoo about our little show here.

setting the world on fire with our love for the dolphins. That was multiple pros hitting me up. Had listened to the show. I guess Matt Mitchell drops it or the volume does at midnight or 1 a.m. East Coast time. So again, that's 10 p.m. Vegas time, not that late. So a couple of guys listened to it and they reached out that they had gotten word. A really, really, really sharp group was going to come in heavy this week on the Jets.

So, you know, me thinking what the hell is going on here? I got to break this down to me. What am I missing here on my love for the dolphins? We talked to Teddy Covers. This is a good spot to be taking Teddy against a Jets team off a win. Just felt like a really prime chance to take the dolphins. And I think they're firing back with this dolphin's defense. Are they really that good?

A team that you can give up points and a Jets offense that we've seen be able to move a ball. They have weapons of the wire receiver position. So to them, they think three. and a half is too big of a number. I had to put it out there. I had to buy that position. I mean, I tweeted out.

I know people got mad about it. It was more just because me and Chad talked about love for my aim. I just want to make sure people to embed it off of that because when a group, again, there's certain groups that bet like me. They bet every week. They bet multiple games. They might have one or two big bets a week, but they're betting a lot of the games. These are 360 groups.

360 means they don't do anything for 360 out of the year, but for five days, they make five bets. So this is one of their days they're making a bet. I got to change my position. I can't be a no-it-all jerk. Like, I got to just listen to these guys. And if it's multiple guys reaching out to me, clearly they aren't something here with this Jed's team. So we've seen the three and a half. Haven't really seen it dip that much. It went down to three, it bounced back up a three and a half. But again, it's just one of those where I got blind spots. I know that. Like I'm young in the game. If a guy that has over 35, 40 years experience is reaching out and they're taking a a position, one of the five positions they take all year, I'm out. And I'll have to try to

force Chad to let me get this one in, but it just seems like at three and a half, these guys are claiming this is free money on the Jets. I know there's no such thing, but it's, it's clearly a position that these pros are taken. The next game, again, not as crazy as that Jets one. Hold on one second. Yeah. Stocky in the Action Network podcast had the Jets in his money line underdog parley. He and Raybon will choose two teams to put into an underdog money line underdog parlay. He had the jets in there. That surprised me a little bit. I will say it piqued my interest. I also saw that you put the jets into the app. You made a pick on the jets at three and a half. I saw you put into the app yesterday. I was like, oh, that's interesting. We're going to talk about that

tomorrow on the podcast. I will say this. I don't give a fuck. This Jets team. is trash. And this Miami team is better. And while in a million years, it goes against every fiber of my being and all of my principles to bet a road dog, I mean, a road favorite,

a short road favorite. Yeah. I'm riding with the dolphins here. We're having a bet off then. I'm just, I'm with you. I was all on this. It's like,

it's like we're in West Side story right now. We're having a bet off. Yeah, I just, I got to listen to these guys. It's like, again, I'm pretty damn good at what I do. These guys are the goal. Like, I want their lives. These are the OGs, the guys who they move mountains. So to me, I don't like it either. But me and Chad don't have in this competition, I'll have it every other one.

It's just like, I bet numbers and I play off other players plays. And it's like, I know I don't know everything. But as soon as a group, like last week, the Seahawks one, Chad hated that until late Sunday. Like I literally had to be like, dude, just take this number. It feels they'll maybe the same boat here with the Jets. But yeah, the second one was they think we're stepping in it with the Seahawks. Again, we can break that one down. They like the Saints. Fuck that.

I'm kind of taking your stance here where it's like, nah, I don't care. I'm on the public side, a public dog. I'm going to take the Seahawks here just to keep this game close. And then the last one, no shocker. They love our Rams play. So they think, like, had a bunch of guys call, reach out about that one. They love the Rams too. I kind of wish I had made it my Simon says.

I think I went from the four and a half to five and a half. But what can you do? Still a good number on the Rams. But yeah, we'll break that one down too. Because again, it's rare. I mean, chattered on a bunch of favorites this week, but I feel like that's a trend for a lot of pros this week. There's just some undervalued favorites.

I agree. I agree. It does feel like we're seeing that. We also saw it. You mentioned Simon says. You had the Ravens at minus 3 as your Simon says. A lot of sharp love on the raven. to remind people your fought the foxhole was Seattle plus five and a half.

I'm feeling a little antsy about a couple of our underdog plays. And the exact decision by me was the Browns plus three, two bets that are making me very nervous right now. Seattle plus five and a half, Atlanta, which has gone from eight and a half to nine and a half. And I am shocked that that number has gone up, given how the bucks got beat on Sunday night. it just, I felt like that number would come down. So I'm a little surprised by that. It's making me a little antsy.

Yeah, but we kind of touched on the Atlanta spot where it's like I was on the other end from it, just from that get-go of Brady 2-0 at home playing against a team that's 4-0-A-TS, now a huge dog. I know you read Evan Abrams piece. It's a great spot to back Tampa. Historically, this is a good time to take a favorite like this. But I think the Paul is right for every. with Tampa right now is what's up with Brady?

Like rarely is the guy in the injury report. I think they had him on there for a shoulder, like a rotator cuff maybe, and then a finger. Yeah, not a big deal. He was supposed to take Wednesdays off anyway. He was still at the facility,

getting treatment, watching the practice. That's something to monitor. Because, like, to me, if I'm going to put a favorite of over eight points into our contest, I got to know it's all right. So, again, weeks like this, we could talk about a little bit.

I do a lot of chalky stuff. I think we talked about last week with the London games. it's like 18 and 3 or 19 and 3 now, the favorite on the money line winning out right in London. So again, that's a nice one you compare with Tampa, Tom Brady 10-0 straight up after two losses. Can't beat that. Like that's a good spot. So there's a bunch of little things like that I'll do this week. But trying to convince Chad to take a banged up Brady at a nine-point favorite,

probably not going to happen. But I would just say to other people in pickpools, I would feel comfortable taking Brady in this spot just because it is a good position to take them and fade in Atlanta team that could be slightly overvalued right now. just because of what they've done the last four weeks. Yeah, that's what's making me more nervous about it is it's like investing, right? You want to ride the wave and you want to sell before you hit the peak. You're right. You want to time the market.

And we're usually really good at timing the market on teams that are on the upswing as we have been with Atlanta. I worry that I might have gone a week too long in Atlanta. I'm having a lot of second thoughts on that one. That's the one I have the most second thoughts on. And it's not in our contest right now anyway. You would touch with the Seahawks real quick? Yeah, let's talk about this.

I want to go through our sort of list. What's making you uneasy about the Seahawks? Well, Seattle right now is in our final five. It's one of those situations where I am betting the number. But if I look at the flow of the teams, I've got a Saints team coming off a tough loss. I've got a Seahawks team coming off a huge win. Traveling again, is Gino for real? I don't know.

are his offensive stats and the Seahawks' offensive rankings inflated because of a couple of games? I looked at the number and immediately liked. I just didn't think New Orleans should be favored by five and a half. That's really what it is. Yeah. So I played the number. That's it. And I'd say the pros, that's what they're talking about kind of of the Seahawks.

They're big pause. Like a couple of guys that call me and said, why, they like the Saints is. Okay, I'm buying high on Gino who just beat a lion's terrible defense. and Atlanta terrible defense at home. Again, he didn't beat Atlanta bump, and he put up staffs. He put up good numbers against them. He got shut down by Denver.

He won't not shut down. He just didn't do much against Denver in the second half, and he did nothing against the 49ers, right? He put up zero points. The only points they scored was on a blocked field goal. So I kind of get where they're coming from on the Seattle team. It's just honestly me fade in Orleans. Like they're coming off, they skipped the buy week, right?

Coming back from England, they had option to take a buy week. They said no. So they're coming off even a longer travel than Seattle is coming back home to New Orleans. And maybe you're right. Maybe like what I'm what I'm overlooking is in fact that any golden is that much of an upgrade over Winston. Because again, Winston was just a corpse back there. He'd really been doing nothing. We saw any Dolan really turned on that second quarter and kind of going forward against the Vikings.

I'm with you. It's a tough one. But to me, I just like the number of the sense I think Gino, he'll be able to backdoor this number. It just feels like a Saints team that, yeah, they're strong against the run, but we've seen teams able to move it. Like Kirk Cousin has just moved the ball in this Saints defense. Again, I don't think Gino's as good as Kirk, but he's not that much worse. And he got his weapons of D.K. Medcalf and Lockett.

Like, those are all good weapons. So maybe me and Chad gets scared off of it because, again, he's hearing noise from people, too. And, like, it feels like we're kind of, like he just said, we're staying along with the public on this, on this Seahawks team. feels like we should maybe jump off. But man, I just got a bad grade on the Saints team. Like, again, they are so lucky. They have that one win.

They stole week one against Atlanta because they look like an 0-14 this year. They just, things haven't really gone their way in most of these games. So I'm not going to fight you on it, Chad, come Sunday. But I do feel like it's going to be one of those. We're going to be like fighting about who's going to be our fifth one in. It's going to be hard to take the C-alks out. Yep. All right.

Well, I agree with you. Next on the list, the Houston Texans. if we can get it at seven and a half, we like it at seven and a half. I think I still like it at seven and a half, but it does feel a little bit like a trappy spot. And even though it's divisional game, the Jaguars all of a sudden I think are getting the credit they deserve in the market. And I feel like this is a really good team.

and I love them against the Eagles. I think they could have covered against the Eagles. It was a bad game for Trevor Lawrence. I think they go home and they start to see how good they are. And Doug Peterson has them playing and believing. I could just see this becoming a blowout game against a competitive but not talented Texans team. It worries me. Yeah.

And you would honestly think that if the Jaguars are who we think they are, which is a top five, top six team in the AFC right now. This should be what you just talked about. They should be able to come home after a bad loss and dominate a bad team. Just like, again, the charges run on the road and did it against this team last week. I'm with you. It feels a little, yeah. Like it doesn't really give me a bunch of confidence betting the seven and a half.

It kind of just feels like I'm going through the emotions of something I should do. Yes, exactly. I'm honestly, I'm willing to pay it, though. I'm willing to pay to see the Jaguars be the team we think they are. because to me, it's always interesting when books and the public move a number after a team loses. So the Jaguars lost. Their divisional odds went up, got better. It means they became more of a favorite to win the AFC South and the Super Bowl odds got better.

So clearly, I think other people are kind of with us now at this point where it's like, okay, they're probably the best in their division. I don't know. It's just hard for me to be like, yeah, take the Jaguars minus seven and a half. Whereas a pro, just like, yeah, you take the, in this position, you take the dog seven and a half. a divisional game against a team that who are they to get that kind of number? Like the Jaguars haven't proven it yet. They got to earn, to me,

earn that number. The only thing that really dominated this year was the Colts. And like we've kind of seen what the Colts are, right? So yeah, I'm willing to pay for them to prove it. But yeah, sliding out of our contest, it seems likely.

But again, seven and a half, it's so tempting to put in because it's just a nice number. Isn't it weird how sometimes we see numbers like, this and we know the right side. We know to bet the number and it's a no-brainer. We don't care who the teams are. We don't care what the circumstances are. I think this is, you know, we talk about this all the time about our biases getting in the way and last year that we struggled with this a lot, right? Yeah. So all of a sudden, we are in love with this Jaguar's team. We

have been open about it since the season began. Our biases about the potential we see for this team getting in the way of our ability to just neutrally examine a seven and a half and saying, yeah, this is a no-brainer because of course it should be. In the same way, the Bears plus seven and a half should be a no-brainer against the Vikings, I'm having a really hard time pulling the trigger on that. I think we're paying too much attention to these teams because we're invested in them in different ways. Well, the hardest part for me is I'm trying to find the best five for us in the contest where those are percentage plays. Those are numbers. I get, I gained to you are at least above 56% lifetime,

where you just take a team like Houston in this position. It's going to work out for you. In a divisional game, we've seen it time and time again. Usually these games kind of work out for you. What we are getting better than we were last year is we would be blindly taking the commanders this week, and I'm so happy we're not doing it.

Yes. Because I've been saying that number nonstop. Again, I had a couple pros call me on it, but that was one of those. As soon as I heard, come, man, and I just hung up. As soon as I started hearing them talk, like commanders, just click. Like, I don't even want to hear it.

I don't even want to be convinced into it. That's one of those where, like, I want to load up on Tennessee. Every room where you hear is Rivera's lost the locker room and that team has flipped on them. And it's proved out. They've had two horrible losses two weeks in a row. Again, then it's divisional foe. Now they're playing a Tennessee team that none of us know how to really feel about. It's just a really weird game.

So I would say me and you last year 100 would have been on this commander's team. I'm just so happy. We're both just like, nah. Yep. Stay away. That is so true, by the way. You're 100% right. It's so interesting, though, how there are, how we are blending the automatic play based on a number and historical precedent and what the wise guy play should be with what we're seeing on the field and the player personnel. And what we've seen on the field with the commanders and what we've seen from Carson Wentz makes us very shy about pulling the trigger on what should be in. automatic play against a mediocre Titans team. Fascinating. Yeah, I told you, though, one of my favorite, like one of the legends of Vegas, my favorite lines, they, multiple guys would always say, but guys always just say in the book is,

hey, hey, asshole, I'm wrong 40% of the time. Don't take it too serious, all right? That's the joke. He goes, well, at least I know I got a four in ten chance. So that's the tough part about going on the other side against professional money. Yeah, well, we're doing it this week. Speaking of, we talked about Miami, go Finns. Well, we got to talk about that one.

What do you want to do there, Chad? Well, I don't want to put it in the fucking contest. Because I want to make it our big balls bet because you're being a little bitch about it. You're scared. By the way, no, no, no, no. You're scared. No, I'm not scared too. When I got woken up to hear it and take the jets, I don't scared too, Chad.

Listen to me. Lean into it. I'm not so scared. I don't have ring nests. I don't pack heat. I got nothing. I got nothing. Okay.

Likes good up in Connecticut. I got a 20-pound dog who sleeps in a crate that's covered in the back. of the dining room. I'm not scared. I just don't think it's the right side. If you want to make it our big balls better the week, I do. Totally fine.

I'm not scared either. I'm prepared. That's what I like to think. All right. Well, in this case, you know what I think you are? I think you're the bitch. I think you're the one who's so influenced by what everyone else is doing.

You can't see the forest for the trees. And I'm telling you right now, Miami is the right side in this game. And we are going head to head. bet to bet sharks and jets. We are against each other in this game. There ain't no good guy. But.

What is it ever worked out when you ride it with the public? I don't think ever. Never. Never. You're literally the definition of stepping in it. No, I'm not. I'm not stepping in it. Again, I hate that I'm on such an island here because I hate this jet's bet too.

But it's just one of those. It feels like I have to make it. It's just a smart side. Let's go. Big balls, bed of the week. New York Jets plus three. Is it plus three or three and a half right now? I'll do three.

That's how much of a man I am. New York Jets plus three is our big balls, bed of the week. Listen, now I'll be torn because I always want, I always root for the- Bengals all over again. I root for the show, but if we don't win, I'm not going to be upset. Well, there are no guarantees in life, but this feels pretty good. Start the NFL week off right with a no sweat same game parlay every Thursday from Fanduel America's number one sports book. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandual or already have an account.

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Still love it. Hopefully be lucky enough that this is 3.5 in our contest because that's what it was for the early part of the week. No brainer. Like even at 2.5, I don't hate it, but like 3 is the number. Like we play that number every time. We've seen it now that hopefully it's professional money.

We're not walking in it with all the other squares. but this is a really good spot to take a Cleveland team that just can move the ball. I think the glaring thing that people have really noticed this week is their defense might be a little suspect. You looked at who they played this year. It's been bad quarterbacks. The teams have semi been on move the ball

on this Cleveland team. But to me, Chad, we kind of touched on it. Really short pros I talked to came in heavy on the under in this game. For the simple fact, they think Nick Chubb's going to ball control this game. So I feel like they aligned with our view of we're getting plus three with all the all around better, healthier team. The only scary part for us is Berset. Like we're back in Berset against Herbert.

Me and Chad don't feel great about that. But playing the numbers, this should be closer to a pick than that plus three. So hopefully you can still get that plus three out there. Chargers getting way too much credit right now. I think it's down to two and a half. So the money is coming in on the Browns. I think that it's a different.

experience to go on the road at Cleveland against a really talented team in the Browns, than to go win on the road as favorites in Houston against the Texans. And again, that was close, right? It was like a three-point game. That game was much closer than the final score. Until Mills threw a pick. You got to peel it back. Keenan Allen did not practice yesterday with a hamstring injury.

That's good for us. Wednesday is usually a big sort of indicator of whether or not you're going to suit up when it comes to practicing. I think Nick Chubb goes off in this game, over 86 and a half rushing yards in the app, following the Action Network app. You've seen a lot of experts betting on that as props, player props start to roll out for a lot of these games. So, you know, I like the Browns here. I like them a lot. First bet I made last week.

And then I made the Miami Dolphins minus three. The other game we loved, you talked about it. Rams minus four and a half all over it. This line's moved up. wise guys love it. Great spot for the Rams. Who have the Cowboys beaten with Cooper Rush, right? You're going to make that case for Miami.

You can make that case for a lot of teams. Cooper Rush hasn't had any interceptions. Again, I'm stealing this from Stucky from the Action Network pod. You can go back play by play. It's about five picks that should have been, if not for defensive penalties or drops by the other team. So this Cowboys team is beating some teams in chaos, Washington commanders,

bangles during their little streak here. Rams offensive line is trash, but I still like the Rams at four and a half here. Yeah, again, there's a lot of historical stuff backing up of the Cowboys winning a home divisional game by 10 or more points going on the road is not good for them. McVeigh, after a divisional loss coming home, has been very good for the Rams.

So not only are the trends kind of pointing to us taking the Rams, we just like the number. Again, Dallas, they've had a great run. Usually that's how football is, right? Teams get a nice little run, have a couple good wins, and then they just have a letdown game. This is what this game kind of stinks of, a letdown spot for what Chad has talked about.

This guy Cooper Rush, four starts, four and O going back to last year, four and O ATS. He's so due, man. Like the guy, we joke all the time. We have a luck metric here at the Action Network that people grayed out. He's got to be way up there right now, Dallas. It feels like their bounces are just going their way. This is a nice matchup for the Rams in the sense that I get people are worried about

their offensive line woes. I just, I just see this team be able to move the ball against this Dallas team that has kind of looked better than they really are, right? After playing a Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones. Now they're playing a Super Bowl winning quarterback and Matthew Stafford, a guy that can really move the ball. So we saw him able to move the ball against the 49ers. You just couldn't finish the drives. I don't think it'll be the same thing for this ramp team this week. It does suck that already bounced up to five and a half. It was a nice number of four and a half. I would still take it right. We talk all the time. I think six is such a key number. I wouldn't mind taking it. But it is brutal where all the money, all the tickets are pouring in on Dallas and

they move that line off sharp money. You'd hope maybe it could go back after the public bets even more this weekend on Dallas. But I'd wait. Honestly, I would wait. I can't see it jumping up to six right now. I would just keep waiting hoping you get back to four, four and a half. The other game that we loved. And if we haven't mentioned any of the game, the game that you still want to talk about, we should do it after. Ravens minus three. Love this spot. Love the Ravens here. Ravens are a couple plays away from being four and out. And this is a team that I think is devalued right now versus a team in the Bengals that still has a little bit of Super Bowl bounce and now is won a couple games in a row. Last time we saw them, they won big. Come on.

Yeah. I'm a more... Don't fucking waver. Dude, this is your Simon says. I'm already bet it multiple times. There's no going back. I'm invested. The biggest pause for me right now is who is playing for the Ravens?

We keep getting... Every time I check their injury report, are they still starting a left rookie at left tackle? Again, if you're waiting on this number, I can't see this getting above four. Like the worst case, I see this getting back to minus three and a half. grab the three if you can. But again, another one of those, I don't mind waiting until Sunday,

until you see the injury report. Me and Chad are going to be on this one. Like, I love the Ravens in the spot. I think it's a good number. I would take it up to three and a half, but hopefully you can just get the three. It's been out there for a couple of days now. Just a bad position for this Bengals team to be in against a Ravens team

that kind of desperately needs this one, right? They're going through it right now. They've been getting interviewed all week about letting that bills one really slip away, which is, again, it's not hyperbole. That one could have decided the one seat. Like both these teams, we expect to be at the top level. If they both finish the year with the same record, the tiebreaker goes to the bills.

They won the head to head. So that was such a big game last week. I just see them using that as fuel this upcoming week. But the fact that every guy I've heard is on the Ravens with us, Chad, that's my pulse. Like, everyone we work with feels like they're in line with us on the Ravens, which can be great. like we work with really smart guys.

But it's also scary where it's like, is this one too easy? Because it feels that way, right? Like we're getting an undervalue team at a field goal with the best kicker of football. It kind of feels like we're stealing money here with the Ravens. But I've already took in a position that I really can't get out. I'll probably just keep betting it at three. It's just such a good number in this game. Can't get out.

Stuck in a moment. We can't get out of it. So my last one I was going to try to convince you on. I know there's no way of doing it, but because it's so chalky. Talk to me about this Eagles, brother. You know what? I'm coming around. You're coming around?

Good. Coming around. You've been watching more Hertz interviews because that guy is cool as a cucumber. I love Jalen Hertz. I feel like there's some real disarray on the Cardinals right now. Cliff Kingsbury is just not a very good coach. and this team continues to get pummeled in the first half. It's almost like he, it's almost like he doesn't really know how to prepare for the game,

doesn't know how to do anything to get the team ready until he sees what's happening on the field. Then clearly he's good at making adjustments because this team is really good in the second half. That's what gives me pause is that the Eagles tend to let teams back in it. And the Eagles tend to be a great first half team. So you're getting a great first half team. against the great second half team with the second half team on the road and a lot of variance in a quarterback who can sneak away and make plays, they can keep a game closer than it should be. That's my biggest pause.

That's fair. So again, if you're feeling like Chad is, just do Eagles first half. And I think it's minus three and a half at plus money or minus three and minus 120. Just do that if you're kind of the same boat as chat. I more look at it as, all right, I've seen them play four games now on a team that everyone coming to the air was down on. We were all down on this team, right, coming into the year. Just the Mojo fell off with Arizona.

We all felt like they had overachieved last year. And so it was going to be natural regression for this team. Yeah, me and Chad, neither of us had us had them in the playoffs when we did before the year, or seven from the NFC. So I was luckily down and coming into them. This year, we've seen to play two home games. They played against the Chiefs. They lost 21 to 44.

No big deal. I was week one. The Chiefs were probably one of the best teams in football. In week three, they played the Rams at home. they were down, what was it, 20 to 6 heading to the fourth quarter. I think they got a late touchdown, so it made a 20 to 12 game. So again, there are two home games. They got dominated by the Rams who we're just talking about.

We don't think are that good. And absolutely dominated by the chiefs that we do think is a good team. Then they went on the road, they beat Carolina, which we all think is a joke. They beat Vegas, right? They had that insane comeback. They were down 23 to 3 and came all the way back against Vegas. So I'm looking at a team that, yeah, they've been able to do art against bad teams and have crazy comebacks.

Again, I'm not here to shit on Josh McDaniels. Is he really that good of a coach? Certainly not in Nick Siriani's level right now. So I look at an Eagles team that's got a really good defense, a really good head coach, and an offense that can move the ball. No weather. They're indoors this week against an Arizona team.

I love it under six. And it's like, again, my biggest pause is this is another game. Like I'm throwing the Eagles money line in there with Tampa. I'm throwing them in there with Green Bay. like you're giving people free money. It feels like when you're moving that number under six because everyone's going to tease the Eagles down. Everyone's going to have them in a teaser.

So that's probably my biggest ball is. But again, chalk does win. You're scared. Like Chad just said, just go first half. The Eagles 4 and O this year, ATS first half. You don't even need to go a money line there. Cardinals have the worst scoring discrepancy and of all teams in football in the first half.

I don't think they've scored a single point in the first quarter this year. Maybe it's three points. They've kicked one field goal in four games in the first quarter. quarter. They're bad. They got major issues in Arizona. We talked about last show, 0 and 7 ATS, 0 and 7 straight up Arizona as well, their last seven home games. It just feels like a five and a half. We're getting a good number. And like I know maybe two pros, again, out of like 15 to 20 guys I talked to that liked Arizona. And I asked them why. It was kind of what Chad just said. They're like, well, Eagle's second half, Kyler Murray's second half, he'll just turn it on.

Maybe you'll get the back door, which is all fun and well. So, I get if Chad doesn't let me put it in the contest, but to me you have to bet this first half on the Eagles. This is a really nice matchup on a team that literally dominates first half versus a team that has been horrible all season in the first half. I'm surprised. I thought I didn't know what you were going to bring up. I'm surprised you to bring up the Raiders or the Bears.

Tell me about the, because Raiders, we had a long conversation about the other day. Yeah, and Raiders, again, someone called me out and said, well, they got absolutely blown out last year. Like I think Mahomes beat them by 40 in both games. And it's like, we'll go look at the year before. Like Derrick Carr won a game against them. And I think they lost another game by six points. I know historically right, that guy is right,

where Derek Carr is unfair well against Mahomes. Statistically, Mahomes and primetime games should be an auto play. I think Evan wrote about it. He's been unbelievable in these prime teams. Hell, me and Chad just got smoked by him last week on a Sunday night. prime time game. Leaking confidence, like a mother on that one. Like, I was excited to bet it. Fuck it. I'll just do the over and just be happy with that. Because I just see these two teams putting up points. I still like the Raiders offense. My issue is like, how am I going to find

stops on their defense? Like, the only thing that stops the chief seems like is Mahomes. Like, that game against the Colts, that was not the Colts winning. I was Kelsey dropping a touchdown on the back of the end zone and go up 11 with two minutes to go. So it's, I'm with the fans of the show being like, please don't make me bet the Raiders. Fine. I won't, I won't do it. We won't have them in the contest. Seven and a half, though, so tempting because that's what it's going to be most likely. I see this number getting a seven and a half, but stayed away from that one. Bears, I feel like you're going to come to me Sunday morning. I probably be able to get convinced on it because I'm with you, Chad. It's like, there's just something about these teams coming up from back from London

playing at home. I just think it's a bad spot for them. But again, the biggest pause with the Bears team is we don't know we're getting from fields. Like this team, they're just not competitive. Like, even when they're in games, that's my fear. It's like, I don't know. If we were going to take the Bears, ignore, honestly, be a bet on fading Kirk, right? Because it's such a big spread for a guy in a divisional game. But I got no numbers that back up take them here. Like, this line to me is good. I have it at six or seven. Like, that's a fair price. I just, I don't know. There's other games I'd rather take, right, than having to be sweating the bears and your boy fields. The interesting thing about the bears to me, everybody in the league knows that they can't pass.

Right now, Cooper Cup has more receptions than Justin Fields has completions. I know. Okay? But the bears, even if everybody knows what they're going to do, are still averaging 5.2 yards per carry. which is top five in the NFL. And if you had said to me, well, the Bears are the number one team in rushing in terms of total rushing yards, I'd be like, who gives a fuck?

Like they're running it 50 times a game. You know, it doesn't matter. But everyone knows what they're doing, and they're still averaging more than five yards per carry. That means it could be a much sort of faster game. I don't mean fast pace in terms of scoring, but the clock will run more because the Bears will have longer, drives or be running it more, that doesn't bode well for a potentially big number, like seven

and a half. Yeah. I would say also teams are happy that other teams run the ball, right? It's one of those things where, like, I'm with you. The Bears have actually been on move the ball. They just aren't finishing any of those drives. Like, they get down there. And you know what it is as a Bears fan. If it's third and eight, third and nine, that's it. Either kicking a field goal or you're not going and pick up that first down. It's just that's the problem with Justin Fields right now. And he's not running it, which I don't really get. Like, he has such insane athleticism. I thought this team would roll him out of the pocket more and get him moving. Yeah, again, it's just a weird week for me where it's like there's dogs I do like and there's just some I don't trust because I don't really know what the

make of these teams still. Like, I just don't know. Again, I should know what the bears are. They're a bad offense that likes to run the ball. I just see so much potential in fields. I just can't really pigeonhole them like that where it's like I see that they have more to offer. You did get, who the hell did you guys get back this week? Nikil Harry. Some receiver came back. I know. It's all irrelevant, but it's just like at least they're getting some bodies back in the mix.

The guys who we know that can actually catch the ball. Because what I've just seen from the bear's offense, can't do it, Chad. They're just, they're so bad right now. I just can't put them in. All right. All right. Well, look, we've narrowed it down. I would say our list currently looks like Seattle.

Houston, Browns, Rams, Ravens, potentially Eagles, and we'll see where the lines fall on Sunday when it's time to put the picks in. Again, follow the Faves 5 in the Action Network app. We'll have everything in there locked in by noon. Also follow the favorites podcasts. Keep up with our Foxhole, our Simon says,

our exact decision, our Scoot Rulette, which it is time to make a choice. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. Simon, we both lost last week. I am winning on the year. I'm three and one. I believe you are two and two.

Yep. So it's time for me to make a scooch roulette pick. Mm. It's tough. It is tough. You know what we should do? There we go. We're so on opposite sides, while you're making the big balls better the week, the Jets,

we might as well make Scute Rulet Jets and Dolphins. No, I've learned not to put all my eggs in one basket again after the bucks last week. So you're a coward. So you're a total coward. Simon Hunter, professional coward. I'm not. I already know I already won this bet. So I'm happy to do that.

But I had a fun, I had a fun move for the Scutrelette. Now you're throwing it off. All right. Well, no, that's fine. Take my name. Take Miami and Scrutte Rolette, Chad. You know what? I'm taking Miami and Scrutte Rulette.

You're taking a minus three and a half. I am all in. So, Chad, minus three and a half, Miami. I'll take, I'll do it. That's fine because you took the big balls at plus three. Because I'm a man. So I'm going to do another manly thing here. And I'm going to take the bills minus 14 and Scrutte Rulet.

That's how much of a man I am. Wow. No, I just, I looked at this line. I was just thinking to myself, what is the one game that no one was expect me better? for Scrutte Trillette, and that's got to be it. Who's going to think I would take a 14-point favorite? Literally make the line 14.

Like, there's no value here. I just, I love this spot for this Bill's team. I know Brandon Anderson, one of our colleagues gave out. What the hell was it, Bill's second half. That's fun, too. If you don't want to pay them minus 14, I think it might be minus six for them second half. Bill is this year I've not been done well the first half. They've actually, last year, they're incredible first half.

This year they've come out a little slower. If you want to do that, go ahead, take the second half. I'm not scared of the 14. I just see them rolling offensively and defensively. It's a great matchup for this Bill's team. We had talked about this earlier in the week. We settled on bills as our survivor. I'd still go with the bills as our survivor.

Maybe the Jags, but I'd probably go with bills. Yeah, I mean, another one, again, I didn't use the Green Bay in. I thought about that, right? We already know Circle Data. These favorites do really well winning straight up in England. Green Bay against either banged up Daniel Jones or no Daniel Jones. That could be a good spot. We're just talking about Tom Brady, 10 and 0, straight up 10 and O in a position after losing two straight games.

You expect the bucks to win. So if you want to save the bills for any reason, go ahead. I'd rather use the bills here just because their division's so tough. I don't know when we'd use them again. Should we talk about a money line parlay? This week was really hard for me. Like a couple of that were easy, obviously, the Browns. Chad doesn't want to dump with like the Jets, Seahawks.

I like those three, like right away. The other ones I'd throw in just because I think you have a good chance of an upset. For my fourth leg, and now pains me to do it because the Jags are our team. But the Texans got to get their first one eventually. They're 0 and 3 in 1. Someday, Texans are going to hit. So for my biggest dog this week, I'm going to go to the Texans. For the fifth leg, I'll go with the bears like that at a big number against this

fighting team. All right. I feel like you and I are misaligned on a lot of different things this week. I know. I'm feeling good. I feel like I should double all my bets. I three and one friend. Good luck to you.

We've locked it in. We've locked in the big balls. We've locked in the final five-ish. We'll update it in the Action Network app. Watch us on Convince Me. You'll probably get a little bit of an idea of where we're leaning. If you watch us on convince me, Sunday mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern, watch it in the Action Network app. It's really cool. You can do picture and picture.

And then while we're talking, while me, Sean Cunner, Chris Raybon, Simon are talking, you can immediately go make some of your bets. You can watch it on YouTube. You can watch it on Twitter at Action Network HQ. Friday is the start of the Major League Baseball playoffs. That means starting Friday Action Network's baseball podcast. Payoff pitch. We'll have new episodes basically every week. weekday through the World Series. So if you want to bet some playoff baseball, check out the Playoff Pitch podcast. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter for our producer, Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify. Wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get.

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