The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 6

Episode Date: October 14, 2022

We're live! Chad and Simon debut a new live recording session of The Favorites, available every week on the free Amp app or via the web at onamp.com for the rest of this NFL season! Just follow @TheFavorites on Amp to join our live show recordings every Tuesday at 1:30pm ET and every Thursday at 11am ET.  This week, Chad and Simon use their Action Network data to dive into the best bets for NFL Week 6, including a long look at the Steelers and the Dolphins, plus a potential buy on the suddenly resurgent New York Jets. #Volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites presented by Fanduel. Football season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code favorites and download the Fandual app today to make every moment more this football season. Must be 21 or older and in select states call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan.

in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-800 next step or text, next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-88-78-9-777 or visit CCPG.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. Call 1-877770 stop in Louisiana. 1-8-7-8. Hope N.

Or text, Hope, NY, 4-667-9. in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-97889. Call 1-800-2-2-470-70 in Wyoming or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, the live version, if you're listening to us on AMP, the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am for every episode. by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BF, professional better. Simon Hunter.

Hello. Chad, how we doing, buddy? I can already tell that you're nervous about the fact we are live because normally you'll be like, Chad, how you doing, buddy? And you got a little bit of something to say, but you're so nervous that you're going to get fired for what you're saying on live radio. All you could say was, how you doing, buddy? I actually don't even care if I get fired.

But it's more like, am I about just ruin my house? life. I mean, people nowadays can't you for the simplest things. Chad knows, I think jokes are meant to push boundaries. I go over the line plenty of times. And Matt Mitchell luckily cuts most of it out. Now there is no ripcord. I can ask you where your political views are. Are you a Scientologist, Chad? But we can just do sharp calls. Either way, nothing's really going to change from the show. I just might. If a joke pops in my head, I might repeat it before I actually just say it. We're usually I would just say it without thinking. So that'll probably be the biggest change. Fortunately, producer Matt Mitchell has a pause button.

It's like SNL. We've got a seven second delay. I can't do it. We'll do it live. We'll do it live. Hey, thanks, Chad. Thanks, Bill O'Reilly. This is the producer, Matt.

As Chad alluded to, exciting announcement. Moving forward, all episodes of the favorites will be available live as they record. Our corporate overlords at The Volume Podcast Network have struck a deal with AMP, a new live listening platform from Amazon. So you can listen to all of these episodes with Chad and Simon as they record every Tuesday and Thursday. So you've got three ways to listen. You can go to the Apple store and download the free AMP app,

which is available on Apple devices, or you can access the web version, which is onamp.com, and you'll be searching for At The Favorites, which is our channel. Or you can use any Alexa-enabled devices and just say, hey Alexa, play this. favorites on AMP. The show records every Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesdays, it will record just after 1.30 p.m. Eastern time, and on Thursday mornings, it will record just after 11 a.m. Eastern time. Again, that is Tuesdays at 1.30 and Thursdays at 11 a.m. So if you guys want to join us live,

that's great. If you don't care about any of this, the podcast version, the normal version of this show will have no changes whatsoever. It will be available just about midnight every Tuesday and Thursday night. Thanks again for listening. I hope to see a lot of you on our new AMP live feeds. And for those of you thinking about betting the Chiefs, remember that the Buffalo Bills are America's most popular, best, and most cherished franchise. And I'll be gorging myself on the tears of Kansas City fans come this time on Monday.

Go bills. You mentioned sharp calls. Of course, we will get the sharp calls in this edition of the Favits podcast. Reminder, here's the rundown for today. We will try to get closer to finishing our final five, which we will put into the Action Network app, the free award-winning Action Network app, on Sunday around noon. You can follow us, the Faves Five in the Action Network app. Simon and I usually call each other after we do our show, convince me, which is also live, in the Action Network app, on Action Network YouTube, on Twitter at Action Network HQ HQ. So we will get to our final five.

We will get to our big balls, bed of the week. I got a pretty good feeling I know what it's going to be, and I'm actually feeling really good about it. We'll do some Scoochulet. We'll do our Moneyline, Underdog, Round Robin Parley. And of course, we will start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking.

Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Yeah, and a lot of people are hoping it's like last week where I'm getting some big bets. I get big bets from different groups every week. It's just certain groups where those are the ones they make you pause because you know it's obviously a key position. So none of those this week. I mean, I got a couple of games we were about to talk about. We're, you know, these groups have hit big, but nothing, nothing compared to what that was last week.

So that's, that was just one of those, like, I really had to take a position because, again, we talked about Miami. And then obviously, I learned quickly we were stepping in it. This week, the biggest one that I think me and you were going to disagree with them on is they like the bills. A bunch of different smart groups have come in on the bills. They love the number. They think the two and a half is a great number. They like, they still like them at three. It's split though where I know a couple other pros taking a position on my homes,

but it's not to the extreme of guys taking real money putting on the bills right now. So if you're trying to figure out what side the professionals are on, I would say they feel better about the bills or I don't know how Chad feels. I still feel like the chiefs are going to be the right side to take. Like I again, we'll break it down. Well, let me just give my, I'll quickly get my opinion on this and we will break it down. but it feels like if we're just looking at these two teams on the, if we're just looking at the number and not the teams,

you're automatically playing the home underdog. But we'll dig deeper. What's your next one? Yes, the most caveman level, chat is spot on. We would definitely, blindly would just take a home dog. The next big one, I thought it was no surprise because we had touched on it, the Saints. I knew the pros were going to love the Saints in this position. It's just basically we think something's wrong with that sense of the offense.

We think whatever is going on with Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow just is not jelling right now. And a Saints team again with Hill back there with Andy Dalton, they just feel like they know exactly what they are. And you saw this week they're getting guys back. I mean, Michael Thomas is back practicing. That's big for them getting him back. He's obviously still does what he does. You watch him earlier in the year, he gets open. Like, again, it doesn't matter how all these guys get.

if you can know how to make and break out of routes, it's such a key thing. So that number's fluctuating. I was shocked to see it. I woke up one morning, what was it, yesterday? It might have been down to plus one, and then shot back up to plus two, and that's back one and a half.

So definitely a battle of the pros versus the Joe's on that one. And then the next one, again, no surprise. I felt like right when the game came out, I knew that pros were going to love it and that I was going to take a position with them, the Eagles. The Eagles were down. to four and a half. You saw a really sharp group come in heavy. They took it at the four and a half.

They shot it right up to six, six and a half at some books. Don't feel as confident at that number. I like it. Still right, we'd still take it there. But I mean, the four and a half to five and half, we talk about all the time. That's under the six, the key number. That's just a great number. And there was no surprise. They waited until it was official. Cooper was going to be the quarterback, and they pounce. So, again, those are games real touch on. I'm kind of out probably on having the chiefs in our contest. We'll see how Chad feels. Just because, again, I know these smart groups.

Yeah, nothing crazy money-wise, but enough, like six figures bet enough on the bills that give me pause. It's like, okay, clearly this game is more of a coin flip than I thought it was, taking a plus three with the chiefs at home. I should remind people that our foxhole bet was the Saints plus two. Still love it, falling in love with it a little bit more every day. We'll dig in a little bit deeper. Simon says when it was Atlanta plus five and a half and the exact decision by me was Cleveland

minus three. We didn't get any conversations about that, but you and I will dig a little bit deeper on those games. Let's start with Atlanta. So Atlanta plus five and a half, it's your Simon says. I really liked it at five and a half. I think the lean for the wise guys might be on the favorite here. I think based on the fact that you're getting a Niners defense that isn't just strong against the rush, number one against the rush. And Atlanta, if there are anything, they're a rush dominant offense.

And then I think there's some law of averages regression to the mean in play here where there could be concern. Can you keep rolling it over on Atlanta? They're now five and no against the spread. Is that just going to come back to Earth for them? All of that said, I still like Atlanta five and a half. I just understand why people might have a lean on the Niners.

What say you, Simon? I honestly think it's kind of a perfect number. It's like every book knows that every Joe Schmo will just throw Sam Fran into a. a teaser. Why wouldn't you? The 49ers are a good team. Lovued as a top three, top four team right now in the NFC. I just think people don't realize how injured they are. They just have a lot of injuries on that team where, yeah, to me, Cordell Patterson's a big deal for Atlanta. They just threw new guys in there. Apparently, this run scheme works, and it doesn't really matter when you got a guy like Marriota

that can also run with it that's always taken one defender away. That's why that read option is such a big deal. So I get the pause, Chad, because I guess you're looking for more movement. But I just think that's a smart number. It touched five and then it bounced back up to five and a half. I have no conviction with Atlanta. Like, it's just one. There's a couple of games this week. I just feel like we have no choice and we have to bet. Like, there's just certain numbers. Like, this is one of these few home dogs where it's like, you're right. Maybe this should be seven, seven and a half. But because Atlanta covered last week, it's not. And just because they're five and no ATS, it's not. But the point.

public isn't actually hammering this number. It's kind of been flipped. Mixed depends on the books you go to and look at their numbers. It's split between the public and the sharps sides and tickets. So I don't know. I still like Atlanta. But yeah, am I shocked that's sitting there still five and a half? Not really. Just because of the teaser factor. Again, that's just such a big thing at the factor into nowadays where it's like, yeah, they just are going to tease it down to the minus half or one or plus one, whatever it is. And they'll just take the 49ers to win outright. definitely still like Atlanta plus five and a half. Do I like it as much as some other games

that will keep it in our final five? I'm not quite sure yet. Depends on where the numbers end up midweek. Let's go back to the Saints for a second. Love the Saints here. Just love them. Here's what's really interesting to me. And I was listening to the Action Network podcast with Stucky and Chris Raybon earlier this morning. And they're killing it this year. And Stuckey pointed out that the Bengals this year, their offensive line is so bad that even the guys on the edges who were supposed to be coming in and a rebuilt offensive line are rating out as bottom 10 for their position along the offensive line. And while the Saints haven't been getting a lot of pressure, they still have really good defensive ends. And if there ever is a game where they could get themselves healthy

to start forcing more pressure, it's this game. And the other thing that was really interesting to me, Joe Burrell, we all know, was amazing against the blitz. When he's not getting blitzed, he's a pretty average to below average QB rating. And the Saints are not a blitzing team. So this just feels like schematic.

a great spot for the Saints, and it feels like a good spot for a team that's now been home for two straight weeks after playing in London. And the Bengals are still getting sort of a post-super Super Bowl Joe Burrow bounce. Yeah, it's funny. When you just read a style like that, it's like, imagine knowing that you have a guy that does really well against a blitz, but terrible against just four rushers, and you still can't fix that O-line. So teams don't even need the blitz. They can just keep sending four and getting pressure on Joe. Yeah, the Saints one, I would say I really liked it when I saw the number came out. I knew I was going to be on it just because the bingo should not be fair for this position.

This is basically the public deciding the line here. But I don't know. It's like the more you read, the more you see of Joe, I just feel like they're failing. Like, again, another team that's just failing, like you just talk about the own line. They brought all these guys in, but the system's clearly not working. Like, they're still getting a pressure. So, yeah, the Saints number, we were obviously hoping to get a best. better number on it, but plus two is fine.

Like, again, anything above a pick to me is a good number in this matchup. So in our contest, I knew we were probably going to agree on this and have this one in there. It's just, I just feel bad for Joe. It's like, this should be, this should just be such a better season. They had the money. They had the capital. They went out and signed the guys for the old line. And again, we're through five weeks.

It's just not working still. So I'm 100% with you that the Saints just felt like me and you were going to be on no matter what. your response is so, and the look on your face right now and the way you're playing with your hair, it's so filled with anxiety. I'm so, like, I felt like you should be saying, yeah, of course this is going to be. This is a no-brainer. By the way, all respect. I know Joe Burrow is our teammate on the volume. I don't give a fuck if he's having a hard time.

I don't give a fuck if, like, he's not getting along with Zach Taylor. Like, does he care of our numbers tank in this podcast? No, it's a zero-sum game. Right now, the Saints are two-point underdogs at home with a better scheme and a really good defense. And Michael Thomas coming back and Alvin Camara two weeks back and getting healthier. Give me the Saints plus two. That's it. I don't need anxiety.

Yeah, well, you're not betting crazy money on it. Mine is it feels like it's too easy, chat. Like that's my issue. It's like, this feels too easy. And that's always the pause moments. I've increased my units after week four. After week four. Is I unit shamed you?

I wasn't even trying to unit shame you. I was just, I just felt like you needed up it a little bit. I can't text my runner say, bet this certain amount without him being like, who is this for your little brother? Like, I needed to be a little more.

You didn't ask any questions. It wasn't even trying to unit shame. It was just a simple, I can't text on the amount you said. Simon, you can't shame my unit. I'm unshamedable. All right.

So we love the Saints. We still like Atlanta. Let's talk about Cleveland because it's a really interesting matchup. It doesn't make sense to me why this game opened a two and a half. It got moved up to three. I think it's still the right side. Cleveland has the best running offense in the NFL, right? Nick Chubb is the best running back.

Nick Chubb, his yards after contact, would not. make him the fourth highest total for rushing yards in the NFL right now. He's leading the league in rushing. He's tied with Sequin Barclay. But if you took, if you only counted his yards after contact 415, he'd be fourth in the NFL in rushing. The problem with the Browns is they can't play defense. So essentially, we like this game. At least I did, I bet it at two and a half because I was getting two relatively evenly matched teams and I was getting the home team at less than a field goal. I'd still probably let play Cleveland minus three. Yeah, and it's, again, two and a half, I got no issue with it.

I feel like the books are kind of looking at what you just said, that if Belichick can run the ball, right, and control the clock, just what the exact same thing that Browns want to do, then this number is good. Like, this game will come down to most likely be a field goal. So it is a little worrisome where the more you look at this Brown's team, that's the glaring thing that pops out, as you can run the ball on them.

and that's kind of what the Patriots need to do with a rookie quarterback starting here on the road. So still like the Browns. I'm kind of with you, child. Like, I would still bet it how the Patriots dominated Detroit last week in the trenches. What's to say they can't turn around do that against Cleveland? It's all about Bill taking the ball out of a rookie's hands. And last year with Mack, he did as much as he could.

They made it to the playoffs that way. So it's just he kind of knows he needs to do with these young quarterbacks and put them in the best positions. But to me, it's just like Berset's better than people realize. this Browns team has been really good. Again, if you look at them on paper, it could easily be 5 and 0. Every game they've lost, they've lost by a last second field goal or a last second touchdown from Joe Flacco. It's like they kind of had these flukely losses this year and they just play tough, tight games.

I got to know what you're saying, Chad. Like I still don't take it. I just know it means you are going to come Sunday and we're just going to be like, should we take that or should we just take one of these eight-point dogs that we like? And that's always the hardest part about doing this. I think we can do both. I'm not letting you get both. I tell you that much now.

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We said earlier in the week we wanted people to wait to take Miami before we saw who the quarterback was. Skyler Thompson gets announced and also the ping pong tables get removed which clearly the dolphins now mean business the line shot up to three and a half

as soon as it shot up to three and a half I bet the dolphins plus three and a half wow I wish I had the confidence you had again I'll probably end up on this I'm hoping to get to the four like the pub will just come in heavy on the Vikings against a third string quarterback

and I'll take that value I don't know how to cap the game, though, because to me, the way they're talking is as if, as if no matter what, even if Teddy gets healthy, Bridgewater won't come in and be the quarterback. I just feel like he's playing mind games. Like McDaniels just feels like he's playing mind games right now with us in the media and the other team. It's got to be Teddy, right? If Teddy comes back and he's cleared, they can't just, they wouldn't just start that kid that literally couldn't not really do anything against that Jets team last week. that would be bizarre to me. Again, we like the matchup.

The Vikings have done a lot of traveling. They just flew all the way back for England, came home, played a game. Now they're flying down to Florida. They'd be, like we talking about, they'll be in the sun for this game. A lot of things where we just like Miami. So I'm kind of with you, Chad, Rob,

I'll blindly bet this at the number. I'll get it whenever it gets the four or whoever the quarterback is. I just don't know if it's one of my five biggest bets this week because it's just, I don't know really I'd model out this quarterback that I really have no numbers on. Um, it's just, it's kind of a toss up situation here. I will look.

I will remind everybody that right now, the only game we love, despite you didn't show any enthusiasm for it, because you just feel sad for Joe Burrow. I do. Is the Saints plus two. I mean, the only game we love right now. Yeah.

Again, there's like, talked about there's four, yeah, four games you haven't talked about that. There's a lot there. I've got, I've got a list of, of six. I've got a list of, uh, 16. seven that we haven't talked about yet that we'll get to. But these were like when we talked on Tuesday, I'm going on the list of the games that we loved the most.

And this is interesting just how things evolve over the course of the week. So the other one, Eagles minus four and a half. We talked about it. It's now up to six in some places. We both bet it. Eagles minus four and a half. Look, I'm just not a buyer on the Cowboys. They have an amazing defense,

but they've beat up during this Cooper, Rush rush. They've beat up on a Washington O line that stinks, a Cincinnati O line that stinks, a Rams O line that stinks, okay? That doesn't impress me against the Rams. They had fewer first downs. They had more penalties. They averaged fewer yards per play. They had multiple fumbles they recovered. Cooper Rush completed 10 passes. Tony Pollard had a touchdown for 50. 57 yards. They had a fumble recovery for a touchdown, and they blocked a punt that they converted into a field goal.

Like, this is not a dominant team in any way. The Eagles kind of are a dominant team. So I see why the numbers move from four and a half and higher. I think in the context, if we got to play a midweek number of six or six and a half, it makes me a little bit more nervous. But I still think the Eagles win this game pretty handily. Yeah, and again, I was not surprised at all to hear that

a bunch of professional groups took a position on the Eagles. Eagles. That was just a really good number of four and a half. My biggest reason I didn't really move on it was just this Eagles team in the second half. It's real. Like them struggling the second half. It's been five weeks every single game. They've done it. They led teams back into these matchups and it's definitely an issue. So four and a half, I love it. Like I feel like you just talked about six, six and a half. You definitely need to think, is there value still on this number? I would still bet it. Obviously, I still like it. But I was going to make one of my bigger bets this week a four and a half. I miss that. So still love the Eagles, still take a position on them.

Don't mind taking the contest either. Even if it's six, we could talk about it. I wouldn't hate it. It's just, it's just unluckily the fact that, you know, the Cowboys, usually they're public darlings. I thought the public would be all over them in this position against this Eagles team that had such a bad game last week against Arizona. So it's interesting what you just talked about. Now I'm looking at our site. A lot of the money late has come in heavy on this Eagles team. So they're looking like the public side right now. Saints plus two.

Love it. Let's talk about the Steelers plus eight and a half. Because could it be? Will it be? Is it? Our big balls, better the week. I'll do it, but I'm going to put it all on you. If you want me, like I stood last week with the Jets in my heart,

you want to stay in with the Steelers in your heart, I'll do the big ball. It's going to bet them. I just, I can't find any logical reason other than the fact that who the hell are the bucks to be getting eight and a half against anybody. They just, they're just not right right now. But I'll give it to you, Chad. You got some big balls making this your big balls back because I just, this Steelers team looks absolutely broken right now. In this spot historically, forget about, you know, using the action network. Action Labs database going back 20-something years, millions of data points. Teams in this spot, they get blown out.

They're heavy underdogs and they're getting fewer than 30% of the bets. They covered a 61% rate historically, right? Want to narrow it down even further. week six dogs off a loss of seven or more covering at 62%. Week six dogs below 50% against the spread since 2005 covering it 67%. I get it like it's a by low spot. I'm a little disappointed. You just have to make like you're just pretty much saying.

That's what makes it the big balls better than week. It is by definition we have to do. You got to hold your nose. You got to buy low. You got to sack up. You got to bet the Steelers. Is it plus eight and a half? Like, do you think this takes more balls or do you think taking the Panthers?

With a new head coach and a no name a quarterback takes bigger balls? I just think that's the other one I was thinking for our big balls, but. Like, I just think that it takes much bigger balls to bet a team that looks as bad as the dealers do. To take the Panthers at like, what is it, plus 10 right now, to take them against a team that nobody has a lot of faith in in the Rams that has looked really bad. Everybody's going to be on the Panthers. That doesn't take balls. Not a betting split,

but that's fair. It takes balls to bet the Steelers. It is. And I won't take any of your glory if it hits. This is, because I am betting it, but this is truly Chad's moment here taking them as big balls,

but this is one where your runner goes, man, whoever you were talking to about that one, that guy, he's got serious, serious courage. Not at all. They would all love that bet. That's a bunch of us are probably going to make this week.

I'm just saying it's just one of those where it's like, I got nothing. Chad's exactly right, though. This is a spot play. This is a trend play. The number's back up too. Like my numbers say you're getting a good number here. But it's like I have zero faith of going to the window with this one. Like I got no faith going to the-

So what you're saying is you definitely do not want to put this in the contest. Yeah. Yeah. I again, Sunday weird should happen. I don't sleep. So through the night, it can pop in my head. I can visualize it and see it. and be like, you know what Chad's spot on, we'll throw it in there.

But yeah, as we sit here on Thursday morning, no, no way. All right. How about Seattle Seahawks plus three? There we go. That's what I've been waiting on. Love Seattle. Love Seattle. Yeah, I love the matchup of the Seattle offense.

I think Gino is what, number three or number four right now in the league and QBR rating and a bunch of other past metrics. The guy is on a role. His outside weapons, D.K. Metcalfe. pocket healthy. Going up against a second year of the Cardinals, that has been absolutely terrible. They give up the 30th most receiving yards right now. That's a bad spot for this Cardinals to be put in. And again, no shock. The public has come in heavy on the Cardinals just because there are on paper a better team than the Seattle team. But I still think

they're just being underrated Seattle team. Again, a home dog, divisional dog in this position. and the books might be sucking me and chat in. We'll pay for it because this is usually really good to us taking this number in this position. I'm happy to take Seattle on this spot, especially coming off such a brutal non-cover last week when they should have covered. Feels like we're getting a little bit of value just the fact that people lost money on them last week. It doesn't make any sense to me that Arizona is, and this line is down to. It's based off last year, though.

They made the playoffs coming in this year. You look at their win total. Yeah. The line is down to two and a half, by the way. It's no longer at three. Still I hate it. Still take it at two and a half. I agree.

Like, it doesn't make any sense to me. You've got a better coach in Pete Carroll. Right now, as you said, a better quarterback in Gino Smith, better weapons on the edges, a better offensive line, a more explosive passing offense, the second most explosive passing offense, the most explosive passing offense. Yeah, that might be number one. In the NFL. And the second worst defense.

Yeah. in defending explosive pass plays in Arizona. Again, if we're playing the blind game, you've got a short home dog in a division game. You're going to bet Seattle. Yep. And again, it's just there's a bunch of these bets this week. It just felt like I didn't have a choice.

It's just automatically, she just saw the number. It's like, well, I already know what side I'm going to be on. And then the numbers and the trends back it up. And again, I tell people the whole time, that's how you build out these things. You just don't go off one thing. You're looking for all of it connected. And that's definitely one of these spots where Seattle, I would love to fade them because it's just been insane how good Gino has been.

But maybe Gino with the right pieces around him, this is who he is. He's not that quarterback we saw with the New York Jets. You know what he's amazing at? He is so good at stepping up into the pocket, towing those line of scrimmage, keeping his eyes downfield and finding a guy who's just raced beyond all the coverage. He's great at that. And he's using all of it. Like he's been using Will Disley is tight end.

And the D.K. Medcaf aspect of it where if he's in any type of trouble and he knows he needs to just get rid of it on third down, he's doing something I wish all quarterbacks would do if you have a big receiver. Just throw it to your guy up in the air. He'll either get the ball or he'll bat it down for you. Like that's just, that's something I'll never get with these big receivers. Just like just put your guy in the position to win.

And D.K. has been winning for him. And like that's the crazy part about the Seattle team. As much you'd be praised. us, it's like, he actually had pretty good weapons around them up there in Seattle. It wasn't just all about Russell Wilson these last couple of years. All right. So we like Seattle. We like New Orleans.

As always. Like the Eagles at a good number. We like the Eagles at a good number. We still like Atlanta. But I'm going to bring up a couple more teams. And if I don't bring up the games that you've liked in the last 48 hours, yeah. Go free.

Are we liking the Jets against the Packers? plus seven. Yes, and still like I'm at seven, like I'm seven and a half. I mean, everyone in the world, that's like the, you know, the guy that likes to get the clicks and the likes on social media is like, did you know the Green Bay after a loss is 10 and 0 straight up in 10. ATS? Like, I get it.

LaFleur bounces back after all these losses. Let's go through it this year. They only had one loss, the final week they played against the Bears. Remember what happened in that game, Chad? Pretty sure field scored and they would have covered in that game. So I just have a worry now with this Green Bay offense. I just don't think they're consistent enough to be favored by this many points. On the flip side, I like what the Jets have done.

Like they drafted well. We already talked about I didn't see these kids impacting this early. Sauce Gardner might be a top five corner right now. The guy is legit a shutdown corner. Again, you can say it's not a big deal because they don't have any receivers anyway on Green Bay. It is, though. They can just turn them in exactly what Green Bay doesn't want to be, which is one dimensional. They're just where you have to run the ball.

that's going to be easier to prep for. Flip on the off-sensive side, they have a nice two-headed running backs right now. They got Carter, they got the rookie Bryce that they drafted. Again, Hall didn't look good the first couple of weeks. If you look at his numbers now, this rookie running back for the Jets, he's improved every single week, and that's something we're looking for as the season goes along,

which guys aren't going to be shook by the league, which ones are going to keep improving? That's big for this Jets team. They need an identity. So again, it's scary back in Zach Wilson, but at seven and a half, it's still out there, that's seven and a half. Let's grab it. You got to grab it against your Green Bay team that's just struggled this year.

The only team they really dominated and put away was the Bears, and we just touched on it. The Bears probably should only lost by seven points. So I think you're going to get a good number with this Jets team. It's going to be a public dog, but I'm on it. Yeah, I think that we need to, as the preeminent sports betting podcast in the world, you and I need to make a rule on sample size. Like, because there are so many Yahoo's out there now who are claiming to be sports

betting experts, we're getting Matt LaFleur, 10 and O in his career, or we're getting, you know, the Packers have done this historically. Like, that's all fucking bullshit. Give me a sample size that is at least 100 games. Give me a sample size that shows consistency during the mind. era of football. Don't give me sample sizes that include what the Packers have done in 50 years or what has happened in a single season with a single player. Like, it's just not big enough. The variance is too high. There's no consistency to those trends. Like, let's just be smart about it.

We're not giving you bullshit sample sizes on the favorites. I mean, I will. If anyone gets as a good sample and it's small, but it's winning, send it my way. I'm not like chat. I'll never shoe you away. I just want winners. I'm a fucking purist. You are. Okay. Do we like the Jets enough at seven and a half to put them in the contest? I would.

Again, who knows what can change again? I think I would too. If I wake up Sunday morning and it's like 90% of the bets and 90% of the tickets are on the Jets and it's still sitting there at seven and a half, yes, people. There's no way I mean, Chad will have it in our contest. But if it's come down a little bit, like again, what I'm hoping to see, which means professional money is coming on the Jets, that's what I'm looking for here. because right now I haven't heard that many pros on the Jets. It feels like they got their money last two weeks and they're just going to sit this one out

where I think there's still value here on fading this Green Bay team. I'm so nervous about it. I have my sports book app open right now here in the state of Connecticut where it's legal and I see the seven and a half and I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger. This is the moment of truth and I actually can't, you know what? I can't do it right now.

Isn't that weird? That's how I feel every week I bet on the Jets. That's just that feeling of betting the Jets. I'm so uncomfortable doing it right now. But we'll leave it in the contest for now. The other game I think we've got to talk about is the Jags against the Colts. There we go. Yep.

I loved it. We were hoping to get the three. We both betted it two and a half. Again, I was going to really lay in big money on this one if they got the three. It never did. Once again, the pros came in. Back down to two. and one and a half at some books.

No surprise. It's just this is a definition of a pickum game. The Jaguars are the more talented team. What they do well on defense is exactly what the Colts want to do on offense. The Colts want to run the ball. Guess what? The Jags are one of the best run defenses on football this year. So, bam, we just turned them into one-dimensional.

Matt Ryan needs to be stepping back passing. That's what you want. Again, the Colts team, they might somehow make the playoffs this year because I don't know how they're two, two-on-one. It's one of the more insane things that's happened this season other than the Giants being 4-1. I maybe I'm getting blind. Like Chad said, maybe we're blind to our Jaguars love.

But I know a lot of pros that love this number. I love the right when it came out too with the Jaguar team that just played terrible. Last week, should have covered against the Eagles. They didn't, right? They had four turnover. So I do think we're getting a nice bylaw position here. And the fact that people are betting the colds,

just because they won last week. They think they're a better team than the Jaguars. It's just, again, that's just the public not really known what they're betting on. So I do think we're getting a good number and an automatic play in the contest will be the Jaguars. Yep. As usual, Simon, as it comes down to it, we're betting on Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Gino Smith. We're betting on the Saints.

We don't know who the fuck is playing quarterback there. And we like Atlanta. So we got four that we feel relatively good about. Five, we feel relatively good about. I got one more game I want to bring up. I was going to say, the list of names you just read off. That's the list of names you read when someone's 72% for the season in the contest. Right.

That's how we've been winning, just ugly quarterbacks. So one more game I want to bring up. And then I do want to talk about the bills and the chiefs. the Denver Broncos, five and a half at the Chargers. I don't know how you don't bet the Broncos here. Do we put it in the contest? I don't know, but the Chargers are not that good of a team, and they're getting the benefit of the doubt.

Everyone loves their roster. Everyone was high on them before the season. The Broncos just consistently playing terribly. But you've got two coaches that you can't count on, and you got about two points, two and a half points of value to me in this game. I feel like you have to bet the Broncos. Yeah, maybe I'm way off here. I made it a way bigger number just because Russell Wilson got that surgery this past week.

I just can't let that be a no big deal. Like, that's a big deal. It's a surgery, and he's going to turn around and play a game seven days later. We saw how a major injury affected Herbert, right? He did not look right until a couple of weeks after that injury. These guys are human. Like, as much crap they want to shoot him up with, that's real pain. So I got no position on it.

I told you, a bunch of guys have the same view as you, Chad. They said, who the hell are the Chargers getting this many points against a divisional foe? No read for me on this one. Like, I wanted to bet the Chargers. I'd like the Chargers and a simple fact that this Broncos team is kind of real in here. But like you just said, it's a hard position you're doing, Ron. I really want to take a home divisional favorite on a Monday night game where all the money and all the tickets are coming in on the Chargers. It's just not going to be a winning side usually for me, but we'll be split on that one, Chad.

You can take your Broncos. I'll fade down. Another week, I'll let Russ see if he can finally look right because as much as people want to blame the surgery, he missed a wide-open guy on that slant route to win the game against the Colts last week. That had nothing to do with his shoulder. That was all mental.

And that's my issue with him right now. He just seems like he's mentally broken as well. Aren't we all a little bit mentally broken, Simon? No, this is me flying high. Phillies. One-on-one in the series, Eagles 5-0. I mean, life is good. Last game to talk about.

And then we still, we've nailed our big ball, so we've got to do a money-line underdog parlay, of which there could be many this week because we like so many dogs. Chiefs Bills, it's another game. I don't have a strong opinion on it. I might not even bet it until we get to the game. I took it. As soon as a three-popped, I took it.

But again, books limited. didn't get anything crazy now, maybe five figures. It's like I was hoping they was going to stay up there for a minute. And as soon as I took a little taste at a couple of different books. It was even like, I don't know, two hours. The line was back then at two and a half. They know what they have here. The books.

The public is going to be all over the chiefs. Again, I said every time the pros win six percent of the time, 40 percent of time the public wins. That's my hardest part. I'm trying to do a balance act here. I can't always blindly fade the public. I got to take it. Like I just, I look at this line. It's just like the Chiefs, Mahomes is 701 as a dog.

He's never been a home dog in his entire career. Again, all these, all these reasons, this is why pros like the bills here. They're like, you think the books are just giving you free money here? I know they're not, but it's, again, in Mahomes is the unicorn. Like, the guy breaks a lot of these rules. I don't know what to do with other than the fact that I, again, I believe the bills are the number two best. team and the AFC, I've had it coming to the year in all offseason, I had the Chiefs rated as my number one team. And even when they lost Tyree Kill, I still did. It's the simple fact that it's

just Mahomes has had the number against Josh Allen. I know Josh Allen got the best of them last, but then we saw what happened. Like the playoffs came around, wherever the ball lasts, that's who won. It's just these guys are very evenly matched. I'm getting dog points at home. We know how hard is to play at Arrowhead. I can't not take the Chief. I just, like Chad said, I don't know if I can put them in our contest because it's like scary as hell going against Josh Allen. It's one of the worst feelings. That Miami game took a year off my life. Like them, think about all the things I need to happen for us to cover and win that number against Miami against the bills.

Like all that stuff you need to beat Josh Allen. It's just one of those games. Everyone's going to have bet on it. Everyone's got to take a side. We're all going to kind of washing it with one eye closed because it's just so painful going against my homes or Josh Allen. They're just simply the best. So no play on the Panthers. You don't even want to put that one in?

Think about putting it in? No, because I think the Rams are going to kill them. Their Rams are fucking bad. The Rams are bad. All right, you know what? Bad. And you love the Panthers coming in. The Panthers just literally, it's as if they had 200 pound tumors on their body.

The coach and the quarterback, they cut it off, playing against a Rams team that, I don't know if you saw the injury report, Cooper Cup, bad ankle, Aaron Donald, bad ankle. That's huge. Like, that's, say they got four all-stars on their team, that's two of them right there. So just anyone listening, that's something I monitor to me.

Like that's a game on Sunday. I don't want people to be shocked that me and Chad had the Panthers in there. If Cooper's out, automatic play. I don't care who the hell. They can have a freaking trash can literally playing quarterback Carolina. I'll play it. It's just whatever to me. Which is you take away the only guy that's working right now for the Rams,

that's got to be an auto play. But I'm with you, Chad. Like this spot play-wise should be the Rams. But fuck, man, they got a lot of issues. All right, so we'll talk about that one on Sunday. Reminder, you can follow the picks that we play in the Action Network app. It's free. It's award winning.

Download it now. Follow the Faves Five. You can follow the favorites podcast for our Foxhole, which is Saints plus two, our Simon Says, which is Atlanta plus five and a half. Our exact decision, which is Cleveland minus three. Our big balls, bed of the week, which is Steelers plus eight and a half. Survivor, we decided on Rams, on two. Tuesday. Yeah. Maybe we want to rethink that. We said Rams or Bucks. And I got another one if you're going to throw it in there. Lamar Jackson, 12 and 0 career against the NFC. If you still got the Ravens,

you want to use them here. Don't hate it. All right. Rams, bucks are Ravens for Survivor. Before we go, we got to do the money lying underdog parlay. And because we respect our new listeners who are listening live on AMP, someone actually had a question for us about Tennessee, Alabama this weekend. And so we'll weigh in on that at the end. First, Simon, give us a money line underdog parlay. Your dog, your dog likes my dog. First one, no-brainer. Everyone knew we'd take it, dolphins against the Vikings. Who the hell of the dolphins? I don't care if it's a third trigger teddy. If I don't play the number, I'm definitely playing the money line just because this is such a bad spot for a four-on-one Vikings team. That's a little fraudulent. So I'll take that one on the money line.

And one of the Jaguars, there's no value there anymore. So I'll just throw it away. Give me the Jets. Give me Atlanta. Give me the Saints. Give me the Seahawks. To me, they're all good dogs. The Chiefs, I really wanted to do it.

I'm telling you, Chad. I'm scared. I feel more comfortable taking the three for some reason. I do take in the money line because I can see this game coming down to a field goal. But every other game, I just see our right winners. Like the Jets won. No one would be shocked if they somehow beat the Green Bay anymore. Like, I would say, this was crazy me two, three weeks ago.

But now you just look on paper and it's just like one team is completely going the other way. And again, years catch up to these teams. We see it all the times. Teams can rebuild in the drafts while the other team goes the other way. It's a nice look right now with this Jets team. So I like it. The only one that I'm scared about in chat, I would say, is my aim, right? We're betting a third stringer to win out right.

But it's just kind of law of averages. The Vikings team, does anyone think this team is a 12 and 5 team? No. They feel more like a 10 and 7, 11 and 6 kind of team. So we're going to try to steal a couple wins from this Vikings team because you go along here. Miami, the Jets, Atlanta, Saints, Seattle. It's weird to me that you were only able to get,

barely get five figures down, not too much on the chief set plus three. I got mid five figures down because I told you I got my unit size, mid five figures on the Saints at plus two before that number moved. But hey, sometimes we're just playing different games. You know what I'm saying? What's your take on Tennessee, Alabama, Mr. Simon Hunter? I will tell you right now, Colin Wilson, who co-host the Big Betts on Campus podcast. Everyone should listen to it with our friend Stucky.

That's our college podcast. You can watch Stucky, Colin and Brett McMurphy on Saturday mornings, Big Betts on Campus College Football Preview Show. He likes, and I forgot our Scoot Roulette, but I'll get to that in a second. Colin says this is entirely about Bryce Young and whether or not he plays. If he does, it's Bama. If he doesn't, it's the under.

Tennessee can defend the rush. They can't defend good passing. Simon, but you have a hot take on this. Yeah, it's a no-brainer pick. He shouldn't even care who as a quarterback for Bama. You just take Bama here every time. If you got Bama as a seven-point favorite, right, and everyone in their grandmops coming in heavy

on a number that they're hanging without even knowing where the quarterback's going to be. And then they bump it to minus seven and a half for Bama, come on. You just got to bet this every time. So I don't have any type of trends or data backing up, taking Bama in this spot. I can tell you my lifetime, I always win taking Bama in this spot.

I mean, just last year, man, I forget if it was, it might have been the C C championship game or it might have been, yeah, I think it was. It was Bama Georgia. Georgia was getting 80% of the money, 80% of the bets. Bama was getting no love. I think Bama beat him by like 20. Like it's just,

And these positions, you're getting Bama where people are down on them. You're down on Nick Saban. And the percentage of all the money is coming in on a public dog. You just always take Bama here. So I knew a couple of guys that already hit the number at seven with Bama. They still like it at seven and a half. Their view of it is you take this up to 10.5. I'm not saying they think Tennessee are frauds,

but that's just kind of the word around the college world right now. It's like, is Tennessee as good as they've looked or they've just have good matchups against teams that are just not that good where we know what Bama is or the cream of the crop. You want to do a scooch? Let's do some scoge roulette. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch roulette. I don't want to double dip, so I'll try to do something we haven't done.

Give me Seattle. I'll do a beautiful home dog. I don't need a three. I'll take the two and a half for scooch. All right. I'll take the saints. I don't need the two. I'll take the one and a half.

And then just everyone knows, me and Chad, all the live listeners, we are going head to head tonight. he's taking the Bears. I am on the commanders. No. Yeah, I am. I saw a whole report that like a Wence might have a torn laborer or something like that. Love it.

Give me the commanders. This is when you want to Carson when he's hurt because he'll just hand the ball off, hopefully. Carson Wentz has a torn labor. Logan Thomas is out. Jahan Dotson is out. I am a little nervous about this for the live listeners. The numbers moved from Bears minus one to commanders minus one. I worry that's sharp money.

Yeah, she's the better team on paper. Yeah, and then my fandom, like all the theories we have about betting the Steelers, they also apply to the commanders. Yeah. So I am a little bit worried about it. But you know what? I'll be watching it. And when I turn on the lights for the video to record our podcast today, you know what I was thinking? I fucking love football.

And I can't wait for Thursday night football. And I can't wait for the Bears. And I don't care if it's as bad as last week's game with the Broncos and whoever they played. I'm going to watch every second of it. Don't forget people. again, live listeners, unders when the total is 38 or lower since 2007 and one toward the under. Small sample, Chad, love small samples. Small sample, small irrelevant sample.

All right. This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter for our amazing producer Matt Mitchell, who got us live on AMP today for the first time, as well as managing the rest of the machinery to get the podcast rolling. is the best. You can download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

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