The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 7

Episode Date: October 21, 2022

Sharp Calls, every gambler's favorite weekly segment, returns this week as Action Network host Chad Millman asks Simon Hunter to share some feedback from the pro gambling community about his picks, including a strong stance on the San Francisco 49ers. Together the duo narrow down their selections for their Week 7 content, along with an official Big Balls Bet of the Week on an NFC team. Plus, is Chad a Scientologist? Simon asks the hard questions on this week's episode! #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome back to the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Milman, chief content officer of the Action Network. I am joined by I am in every single episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional. better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. You've got to say, I know you want to talk about the Phillies. I don't. Sports Equinox. What a day. Wow.

What a day. No joke, by the way. Sports Equinox, there is so much to bet on today. We got NHL. For those who don't know, sports equinox. It's basically when the four major sports are all playing on the same day. It's happened 27 times. It's NHL, NBA, Major League Baseball. and NFL, not that easy to get baseball, NFL, NBA, and hockey playing at the same time.

That's why it's an equinox. It doesn't happen that often. I want to welcome in our live listeners on AMP. We love doing the show. It's really exciting to do it live. And Simon, in today's episode, we're going to finalize our final five or get closer. We'll go over sharp calls. We'll do scoot roulette. We'll do the money line Ron Robin. I will remind people that on the previous episode, we gave away foxhole bet was 49ers plus three. That's now two and a half. Simon says, Washington plus five and a half. It's now four and a half.

Exec decision was Texans plus seven. That's still seven. We got a lot to discuss. There's value in listening to it live. So I'm happy for the people that are because if they're listening and making the plays that we suggest in the moment, you're getting the best of the number. And for those who didn't listen live, that's fine. These numbers started moving like over last night and this morning. You're not like penalized by listening to it later.

Yeah, and enjoy the live show because I have no, no doubt my mind. There's no way I agree to this on my next contract with chat. I just, every show live, yes, enjoy this while at last. I just, I'm the most unprofessional person ever. So if people think this is me being wow, this is as tamed as I can be. I promise you. As long as the winning keeps going, I can carry love. but no more offhand jokes, especially Scientology jokes.

I will not mention Scientology. This is the last time I would say Scientology again. Everyone thinks you're a Scientology, Chad. You fit the profile to a T. How do I live? You're going to live forever. You're shady as hell. You're up in Connecticut.

Something's going on there. What is shady about me? I am the most transparent, authentic, what you see, wizzy wig is what you get guy. Yeah, right. You act like this nice, sweet guy. We all know, Chad. You're a killer.

You fit the profile. Scientologist, serial killer, Chad, Millman. Oh my God. That is crazy. I couldn't be more boring. My life is exactly as it is.

We get it. You have a good cover story, Chad. There was a story in the New York Times this week about how people are drinking less, a lot of it to do with health and wellness. And I thought to myself, I'm drinking less because of health and wellness because I want to be able to get up in the morning.

I want to have a good night's sleep. I don't find the value in saying how cool it is I got wasted and only slept for four hours. Like, I want to sleep for as long as I can and I want to get up and do my exercise. So you might be right about that. If Scientology means living well, man, that could be a Scientology. No, we get it. Your vice is gambling. That's a good vice to have.

It's true. It's totally true. I mentioned sharp calls. That is when our wise guys start paying us about what games we talked about. What's interesting about the live stuff is they were. We're pinging you when we were talking about the Niners and the Chiefs at plus three saying bet it right away. They loved it. So what else did people call about in our sharp calls?

Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do it? Yeah, I thought that was funny. That a couple of buddies, a couple of their pros download the app, the amp app, and when we were listening to us live. And as soon as we gave out the 49ers, they were just like, that's, that's got to be the one. You got to give that out.

So, yeah, we were luckily on it down to two and a half now. Again, we were texting about it. I thought the line was going to move based off the 49-year-s injury move. It was positive. It was positive injury news. The line moved down. So, again, these pros, they were on at last week with the bills. I think maybe the general public is too high in the chiefs than they should be.

I still think the chiefs are so good. Maybe they're just going to slump here, and that's what the pros are betting on, because crazy the book moved to two and a half on this number. Like, we talked about it. every Joe Schmoe that walks into a casino this weekend is going to see a two and a half line on a Chiefs team that they envision is much better than a 49ers team. And everyone's going to be taking that where, again,

it's me and Chad's job to look at the other way and what are 49er strengths and what are the weaknesses of that Chief's team? And obviously, it's the run game that favors this 49ers team so heavily. Against, again, a run team that's not been good stopping the run last three weeks in this Chief's team. So that was a call. I got a bunch. just a lot of pros love the 49ers this week.

The line moving reflected that. The next one I got called about, again, the line has already moved a decent amount right when we talked about it. Seattle. Well, hold on. Before you get to Seattle, let me say one thing about the 49ers and the chiefs, just from a betting perspective. You mentioned the public is going to be all over the chiefs.

82% of the bets on the chiefs right now. And this line moved in the opposite direction, went from three to two and a half. So that should tell you everything you need to know about how much money is coming in on the 49ers. And I will say what's interesting is earlier in the week, about 85% of the money was on the 49er, on the chiefs. Now you're seeing that percentage shrink because of the 49ers injury news and so much wise guy money has moved this down. So you're starting to see a real discrepancy here. Yeah, it's an old saying.

I mean, I'm sure Scooch told you a few times. The bookmaker loves to say it. It's the, a pro comes in. They bet $10,000. They might move a line. The public can come in with millions of dollars and they'll just keep a line where it's at. It's just that's one of the biggest things you look for. Certain guys move numbers.

The public does not. Unless that pro is you or me and if we bet $100, the line moves. Yeah, apparently. But again, our show reaches so many people. I still think we do move lines with the show. So, yeah, Seattle, I was not surprised that pros are. going to be on it. My surprise is more so that the general public would be so in on Seattle, where, again, it just feels like even against the Cardinals, people were betting the Cardinals

on the road against Seattle. I just felt like people already gotten off the Geno train. They're waiting for the other shooter drop. And here he is. He opened at seven, got down to six and a half, down to six, now five and a half against the charger. So had a bunch of guys talking about they loved it at six and a half. And we had to take that one. So again, I don't care what the number is up at. You can go back up to six and a half. we would still take it in contest at six and a half or five and a half if that's what it is. But to me, the six and a half is a key number. We talk all the time now about the extra points.

Love that number. The last one, again, we weren't on the Cowboys. Bunch of pros I talked to love the Cowboys this matchup against Detroit. Wow. Yeah, which was interesting because, again, I wasn't going to say I was going to make a huge stand on it. But to me, if you're getting seven and a half seven on Detroit, it felt like kind of a no-brainer play, I think their view of it is, do you really trust it? Detroit team that's still not fully healthy yet.

They still might not have Swift back. They still might not have DJ Shark back. Again, that's, I guess, a big deal to them where, I don't know, I just thought it was a big deal. Dax coming back off a hand injury. I feel like he rushed back. I feel like we were getting good points. So I don't know if I'm going to bet it, but they might have scared me off from letting

me and Jeff put the seven and a half in or seven in with Detroit. But I just thought that was interesting stand. They think the Cowboys are really that good. Like they put them in the top three, top four team right now. in the NFC where they have a view on Detroit as a bottom two team right now in the NFC. So again, just difference of opinions. All right.

Well, we're going to get to that because as I was preparing for the show this morning, I added one team to the conversation that I wanted to get very specific on, and it was Detroit. Well, I'll be to hear it out because I was with you. I was on Detroit. I just felt like, again, if I get enough calls about one team,

I tend to listen, right? just marked it down as like, okay, five different groups I know for sure are taking a position on the Cowboys. Only one other pro I talked to took a position on Detroit. We're going to get to that one. I'll put it at the end. We still owe people a big ball's bed of the week. Who knows? Maybe it ends up being the Lions. I think it's becoming an interesting game. Let's start from the top of our list. Jags minus three against the Giants. I still love this side. And I was listening to Stucky and Chris Raybon on the Action Network,

Kenafo podcast this morning. Stucky was making the case for the Jags. Their rush defense is third in the league, I think, for DVOA, you know, fancy way of saying advanced stats. They're really good at defending the run. The Giants, their best offensive weapon is running the ball. But then he made something really a really good point. point. The Giants keep winning games on luck in the fourth quarter. And we've talked about the luck

rankings on this show, right? The rankings that we put out that quantify how lucky teams have been this year. No team has been luckier than the Giants, according to our math, no team. So we got a team in the Jags who had the kind of lost this past weekend that literally almost never happens. No one had never had as good a game as Trevor Lawrence had had and lost the game. Like statistically, he had the best game ever for a losing quarterback. And the Giants keep winning by luck. I know we've talked about the Jags being a team that we might be biased in favor of. And that could be clouding our judgment.

But I don't think it is here. Yeah, again, the tough thing, argument with the Giants is they are five and one on one possession games this year. Like they were winning the close games. And I'm with you, that's luck. But I just talked about it. A lot of that does go into coaching and believe in it. It's like, again, I don't get what's happening. But yeah, to me, the Jaguar, as soon as that number opened, it was a no-brainer.

And then all the trends in numbers start pouring in and makes you pause, but it doesn't change my position. But yeah, like that I think someone was saying it was what, two and 14 the Jaguars are playing against NFC teams, their last 16. So it's like, I think I put. too much in a dog changing the culture on one year where it looks like it's going to take a little while here like a culture that is just what just loses i mean yeah and that like blake boardle's year that was a special year don't we all saw through that right that was just a kind of a fluke year the jaguars made it always this a fc championship game they've done nothing but go backwards since then so um jaguar's team as a pro me and chat are going to bet it we're probably kind of talking about

and put in the competition but it's a bizarre line like The books are getting money on the Giants and they're keeping it at three. And people are thinking they're getting a good number on a five-and-one team against what I just talked about, a bad team in the Jaguars. But again, this is a spot where I have to trust the numbers and take the Jaguars. But it's just like, man, me and Chad are not going to be surprised at all and we lose just because as much you want to say how lucky the Giants are, the Jaguars are equally unlucky this season. It's just two teams on the opposite side.

So, yes, I'm with you. It should flip more than do. and the numbers back it up. But I bet it too, and I just felt sick to my stomach doing it. Something to point out to me is, again, we can't do this for the contest, obviously, but Jaguar's first half, that's where the Giants have struggled. They've not been well, done well in the first half, but the second half is when they keep it close and have won these games.

So unlike me and Chad, we don't have that choice. You could just go Jaguars first half if you want to take a position and not even take full game with Jaguars. Because, again, they played really well these first halves, the Jaguars team. But to me, if minus three, chat, if it's in our contest at that or minus two and a half, I would take it. But I feel like you agree at minus three and a half.

Maybe we'll pause. Yeah, I don't think three and a half. I want to call you out on one thing. Matt Mitchell, I feel like we need to get, we need to get like a penalty flag drop or something. I'm putting the kibosh on bullshit, small sample size, historical trends that mean nothing. I don't think, and I've heard this going around and it's so stupid, I don't think the Jags being 2 and 14 against NFC teams, the last whatever number of years, means anything. It's a small sample size, different teams, different coaches. The Jags are historically bad

against everybody. So you can't take anything into account when it comes to a sample size that involves the Jags or a trend that is 16 games over God knows how many years. We're dropping the flag. It's like those new commercials where you throw the replay in there. It's when we're going to look at. We'll regret saying that. They are one and three on the road this year. So again, it is an old trend, but there's some merit to it.

Well, this team just hasn't won. And like, again, I'm with you, Chad. I'm waiting for them to turn that corner. but you are what your record says you are, right? Like they haven't won games to this point. I hope I'm wrong. I'm betting on the Jaguar, so I hope that trend is bullshit. So the other game I want to get to, Washington plus five and a half.

We talked about this. This was your assignment says. When we recorded, I immediately bet it. I went into the action app. I clicked on Washington plus five and a half. And then I used quick slip technology. I clicked on Fandual from the action app. It immediately took me to a bet slip in Fandual.

I didn't have to go to Fandual app, open it, search for NFL games, finding the bet I wanted to make, immediately took me there. I could put in the amount of money I wanted to put in, make the bet. While you were talking about the Washington commanders, I made that whole bet. It took me about 15 seconds. If you were in a legal state and you are not using, in quick slip with Action Network and Fandau, you are insane. It is the best way to bet.

It is so smooth, seamless technology, auto magical. Here's what I will say. That was an unprompted, shameless plug, by the way. I feel like you've got in Washington and Green Bay, two mediocre to bad teams, two mediocre to bad defenses. The one thing Washington does well is pressure the quarterback without blitzing. That bothers Aaron Rogers. He is significantly worse in that situation. Other side of the ball. No more Carson Wentz.

Taylor Heinecke. Similar QBR for his career, similar yards per attempt for his career, better completion percentage for his career, and he's more mobile. So even at four and a half, which this number has moved to, and we might get that in the contest. I'm still playing in Washington.

Yeah, and to me, again, we're playing a kind of numbers game here of how much better is Carson really rated than Heinke? I feel like Chad is nailed in the head. It's like the books hung a high number because they expected the public come in on Green Bay. The public did, right? It would stay at five and a half. And all of a sudden, all that pro money just poured in the last 24 hours.

And it's like, yeah, it should be down to four and a half, should be down to four, would not be shocked. Again, it's down to three and a half by kickoff. It's just, I feel like you nailed it. It's two teams that aren't that different. The biggest difference is it's Aaron Rogers. It's like if you're betting Green Bay, you're literally betting Aaron Rogers to bounce back in this position. But it's like bounce back and do what?

Like blow out this Washington team. It's really hard to blow out and dominate teams. And I look at a Washington team that they do really well run the ball. Like again, Robinson looked really good to me last week. I have to take Washington. Like it was just a no-brainer. As soon as you saw the way the Jets beat Green Bay, right, they didn't beat it with Zach Wilson. They beat it on the ground.

Heineke and Zach Wilson, again, not that different if you grade them out. Like, I look at my grades are not that far off. Heineke's biggest weakness is the stupid turnovers. If he can limit that, Chad, I love this. I love this matchup so much. And people already probably listened to last week new. We're going to have this in my money line around Robin. Crazy to think they're going to have a three game slide and they're going to be losing to the

giants, the jets and Washington. But that's how football goes, right, Chad? Like, it comes out of you fast. These teams that were really good for a couple of years. as they fall off, this just looks like a down here for Green Bay. Again, I can't believe they haven't traded for a wire receiver, but Randall Cobb might be out now. Who is he going to on third down with this team right now in Green Bay?

So to me, it's a bad spot for Rogers. I would bet it down to three and a half. The fact that you can still get four and a half, I'd still grab it now. But, yeah, Washington, as soon as the game opened, I knew we were going to be on it. The fact that we got the best of the number, that's always a good feeling. Yeah, no, it's great. It's totally great. This is one of those things where we talk about betting ugly all the time.

Washington, you're betting on a team whose ownership is in disarray. Yeah. That hasn't performed well. That's starting a backup quarterback against the two-time defending NFL MVP and one of the teams considered to be the favorites to win the conference. And it's a no-brainer. total no-brainer. This is a great way

to go against public perception. All right. Well, we know we're going to be on Washington in the contest. The other game, Houston plus seven. It's another one where like two teams

similarly ranked offensively and defensively. The Raiders are seven point favorites at home. 70% of the tickets on the Raiders 80% of the money on the Texans. Just based on that, you play the Texans. But this number is so big.

I cannot figure out why this number is so big. Yeah. No, and again, we might be stepping it. Someone pointed out to me that me and you were on all three of the dogs for the late games. Me and Chad, don't even think that way, honestly. We're just picking games. I didn't even realize that until after that. Yeah, I mean, either.

Yeah, I hear it like, yeah, I'm sure statistically a favorite's going to win. Me and Chad, don't bet that way. Like, I'm not only going to pick a dog or just pick a favorite just to have one in there. I'm with you. Houston, that feels like a good number to me at seven. Scary a little bit because exactly what you just said. It feels like the Jets last week where I'm trying not to get scared off the number. I just trust that it's a good number where it's like in what world in Green Bay

have we been catching seven and a half against the Jets? Same thing here. In what world is Vegas seven points better than Houston? In anyone. Yeah. I mean, they just haven't shown it to this point. So Houston just plays games close and they let teams back in it. I just, again, I'm with you, Chad.

I'm hoping this is seven and a half in our contest because that would be a great number for this. But at seven, it's still a good strong play for me. I don't think we're getting seven and a half. I haven't seen it go to seven and a half anywhere. So I think we'd be pretty lucky if it got there. It was seven and a half in a bunch of offshores, but that's fair. I haven't seen a seven and a half in America in two days. All right.

Let's talk about the 49ers and the chiefs a little bit more. Yeah. Do we like it enough if the contest line is, two and a half to still bet the 49ers. Yeah, I feel like we kind of have to because we're taking such strong position on it. Again, it's going to end up being one of my biggest bets of the week. And it's like, I try not to put so much weight into three because it's rare where games laying on three like they used to.

That used to be such a key number. Now with the extra points, teams going for two, down 14, everything like that. It just changes the math and the rhythm to two and a half to three. So, yeah, if you liked it, if you had, again, Mean Chat would love to make us our big balls, but we already made this our bet, our Foxhole bet. So to me, it's going to be the hardest bet you have to make. You kind of have to trust Me and Chad and just the numbers. This is a pro bet you make lifetime.

You're going to win this bet 60%. And, again, that's a big deal. So not only do the numbers back it up where you have a good run scheme for this 49ers team against a Chiefs team that early on, I thought they might have fixed their running back woes. And then what did we see? We saw them play against teams that can move the ball and run the ball, and they absolutely dominated them.

That's what the 49ers love to do. So I'm just going to trust that it's going to be a close back-and-forth game and that, again, the 49ers can pull this one out. Because as much I would love to tell you to take the Chiefs, the numbers back it up. It's like, this game's closer to a pick than it should be at plus three, that what it was. So that's why reason I knew right away to give it out and that we were going to be on it was the fact that everyone was going to bet it.

I texted chat. I really did think this was going to go up the plus three and a half and it just went down. So again, that makes me an infield good knowing we're with the pros as well. Those are the four games that we felt strongest about. Jags minus three, Washington plus five and a half, even at four and a half. Houston plus seven, 49ers plus three. Other games on the list, one of them mentioned in sharp calls. plus Seattle, plus six and a half, now down to five and a half.

I'm not surprised this line has moved. Yeah. The Chargers roster, everyone loves it. Everyone thought they'd be a contender. Everyone thought this was the year they could take over the AFC West. Keenan Allen hasn't played since week one. We don't know what's going on with Bosa. I mean, Bosa's not going to be playing.

Rishan Slater, not going to be playing. I think they struggled mightily last week against the Broncos. They probably should have lost that game. I think that's having a little bit to do with it, plus the fact that Gino Smith, Gino Smith looks so good when he steps up in the pocket and throws deep and throws over the coverage. And I'm a huge, huge Kenneth Walker fan, huge Kenneth Walker. I don't know why, but last year I ended up seeing a lot of Michigan State football games. Yeah, he was incredible.

I loved this guy at Michigan State. And he's been, he's carrying people. He's either carrying people or people can't flat out tackle him. Like he's jitterbugging, you know? Amazing player. Love it. Yeah, just a bizarre. Again, Seattle coming into the season,

I just thought they'd be in trying to make position to get a top pick. Now they are going to be in position to have a top pick, but that pick's going to be the Broncos pick. So again, life comes at you fast, the NFL. Who knows what's going to happen, right? Only one third way through the season. But the Gino Smith stuff, it's got nothing against Gino. I love the kid, W. Boy, it was just every time he would get these,

opportunities to play, he would literally light it up and look great for a game or two, and then he would just fall off a cliff. And like a team would get a read on him, the defense would get a read on them, and then he'd fall off. Again, he didn't light the word on fire last week against the Cardinals, but he kept his team in a position to win. And that's what you're looking for with these quarterback. So if you can have those kind of games and down games and then rely on the defense to lead them and just not turn the ball over, that's huge for Gino. So in this matchup, love it at six and a half because what we talked about last show, it's like, again,

The Chargers, we know they have the talent. We just don't think they have the coaching. They just simply do not. Like the offensive scheme they're running, the position they're putting Herbert in, the fact that you can't really get protection at some points where it's like bizarre, they can't scheme that up either. It's like just keep your running back in instead of always running and Echler out. I don't know.

Like I love Seattle. It just sucks at it down to five and a half. Like, yeah, I'll still take that number. But we had such a nice number at six and a half. I am shocked. But again, it makes me feel bad. better knowing that the professionals have come in so heavy on this number because that's a big key number.

Like moving through the six, that's a big deal. Books don't want to do that either because now you talk about all the time. You just simply tease down the chargers to win. They just need to win outright for you. So interesting movement. If me and Chad, have it at six and a half in our contest, I just don't know how we don't play it on Sunday.

Like that's just such a good number. I gave it to be back and forth. Yeah. What about the Falcons plus six? I feel like this is this is the game that is a line, a line of demarcation. We talk about value. We talk about getting out of the peak,

getting out at the peak of the market. It feels too big for me to still be playing Cincinnati is a six point favorite. But are we pressing our luck? I think it takes balls. We're been a six and a O a team, ATS. Are you saying right now

the Atlanta Falcons are big balls better the week? I am. Big balls better the week. Because I feel like no one wants to do it. They're like you. They're just like, are we just walking right into it?

Like this team, we should be selling all of them. I think they're still underrated. Like, they really are in this division they're tied for right now in their division. They're still plus 700 in most books that win the NFC South. This line, I get it. It was plus 10 at one point. It brought it way down to plus seven. Then they brought it down to six and a half.

And now they're getting action on both sides. I think that's what you were talking about. People are just skeptical of this Atlanta team. I'm looking the other side of Cincinnati. They've lost two of their big. D tackles up front. That's got to be a big deal to this team of stopping the run. We saw last week the Saints were able to move a ball against them without their top weapons. Atlanta's healthy right now. Pits is back. London's been playing for them. Like,

Marriota's got no injuries. Again, I know it was going to hurt them to have no Cordell Patterson. It looks like it doesn't matter. They've been averaging 150 yards per game rushing since he's been out. So I'm with you, Chad. We're going to get caught eventually. I just don't think it's this week. Again, you're playing the matchups, a 60 team that just does not blow teams out that play close. They have their own issues, right? We keep talking about that. Jamar Chase, he was the difference in that game last week. Guess what Atlanta has. They have a shutdown corner that should be able to take him away. So there's a bunch of different little matchups I like for Atlanta. But yeah, six and a half. Again, another big dog that we like this week. I love it. I'm in. I mean, I feel like I'm ready to, sometimes you get a feel on teams. and how the market is responding.

Yeah. And I don't think the value has been accurately portrayed in any of the Falcons lines yet. And it's mainly because Mary hasn't heard us. Like if he catches us in this game and the episode lays a complete dump, honestly, people that does happen. Like this guy isn't the top five quarterback of football. But Arthur's really done this offense where it's not predicated on him.

Like when they need to make these big third down plays, he does it, but they aren't asking it that much because they can run the ball. there's so many third and short options. Again, it's just a beautiful thing watching a coach come in and scheming offense around the players on the team. He doesn't care about his own scheme. He scheming it around the offense on the team. That's what you're seeing on this Atlanta team.

All right. I do want to talk about the Lions. There's two more games I want to talk about. Yeah. The Bears went from plus eight to plus seven and a half. I can't believe. Let me just say this. We like the Bears of Plus 8.

I don't think we're putting the Bears at Plus 8 in our contest. The other day, someone texted to me or, you know, tag me in Twitter and showed how Bill Belichick had basically gone on for eight minutes about how good the bears are. Jeez, did he really? That's like the kiss. That's terrible for the Bears. That's terrible. That just means he really sees how bad they truly are. Wow, because he never does that, Bill.

No. No. No. So as a Bears fan, I know that we're kind of fucked. You know, but we're on the Bears plus eight. You might get lucky. Mac Jones might come back for you. Yeah, you know. That's all they just cleared them. I don't know that that would happen. I feel like this is Bailey Zappy's team until Bailey Zappy, you know, can't do it anymore.

Bailey Zappy. Until he has like an absolute meltdown of the game. You got to let him keep playing. Exactly. Lions plus seven. I guess my feeling on this is. the lines keep games close. If they're fully healthy,

especially Amman Ross St. Brown, who I expect to be fully healthy in this game, the Cowboys' Offensive line is dreadful. I don't know that it's that much of an upgrade getting Dak Prescott back right now. I'm not saying I think Cooper Rush should be replacing Dak Prescott. But coming back after a long layoff with the thumb injury and a bad offensive line,

I just feel like this is a backdoor game. Yeah, again, I said we're going to take it. Just don't be surprised when we're dead wrong where it's like, I get it. These pros, they're not going to get everything right, but it was just interesting. They're all taking that position where it just made me rethink where it's like, I looked at this is another easy bet. Like same way I've kind of felt with the landing where it's like,

you just have an inflated line based on public perception where, again, I wouldn't be, no surprise with Cowboys somehow defense completely shuts down Detroit like the Patriots did. And again, no points. but if Swift does come back, I mean, we have a great number on a Detroit team that we'll be able to move the ball. Like, again, that guy is such a difference maker. So to me, I don't know if we're having the contest, but if Swift is back on Sunday and we're catching seven-a-half, we might end up switching it in because that's just a good number on a team that, again, they're predicated on their talented players around them. We've seen golf do well to indoors, right? We've seen the difference this year.

Like him indoors, they're always in these games, especially at this big of a number. They tend to hang in these games. I just, the same thing I said, the other pros that I talked to, the ball is on you to be betting Dak coming off an injury, a hand injury, coming in, and this is his first game back. Again, it feels like he's rushing back. He should just be, he just waited until after their by week, but again, he just saw another man exceeding in his job.

He just wanted it back. So I'm with you, Chai. I think we're getting a good number. It's just like last week, there's certain games they got a pause on. This week, the two, this is, this is. is one of them. The other one is the Tennessee Colts game. I just knew a new pros are going to be on Tennessee, but I knew real big money was going to come in the Colts and what happened this week. Big money came on the Colts, but it's been kind of split. Another game that I don't think

we end up having in the contest, but just a result I can't wait to see because it kind of feels like that's the fight for the division right there, the Colts Tennessee game. I don't know if you have an opinion on that one, Chad, but I didn't really know what to do with it on Tuesday because at first glance, I was all in on Tennessee. Still kind of lost in the weeds here on what to do with this game. Yeah, I mean, I think you play Tennessee because it's a divisional matchup and they're less than a field goal favorite at home. Yeah.

But I got it. Coming off a buy. Yeah, I got no time for this game. I think Mike Rable is a better coach than Frank Reich. I don't know what's happening with Jonathan Taylor. The Colts defense has been pretty good. Right. I don't even want this game to appear on Red Zone.

That's fair. We got to talk Jets. People who want to talk to Jets Denver. I think when we talked on the show, it was two and a half or maybe two. Now I went down to a pick and it's back up to a plus one. Oh,

the Denver Broncos. Yeah, so we liked the Jets, as a reminder. We liked the Jets at plus two. I think I probably still favor the Jets. You know, Russell Wilson is claiming he has Wolverine blood and that doesn't mean he's playing.

It just means he has Wolverine blood. The Broncos are one of those teams where you talk about the giant. right? Let's say the giants, they're getting lucky. And you can say they have good coaching and that helps fuel and instill belief. And that helps fuel luck. I think the Broncos have bad coaching. I think that if Russell Wilson does play, he doesn't quite know what to do in that offense yet.

Their defense is outstanding. And I think Zach Wilson is a terrible quarterback, truly terrible. And this Jets team is also beaten bad teams in dramatic ways that is, you know, they beat the Packers. They beat the dolphins, although that game was too close. And they beat the Browns and Jacoby Brissac kind of blew up and turned back into a pumpkin. So I have qualifiers in liking the Jets, but I think I still like the Jets here because I think the Broncos are just so bad. Yeah. And again, the Zach Wilson thing, I have to wait still.

Like I always give guys the benefit of doubt. I give them a couple years. Again, rarely does it flip, but the few times it does can be insane. Like Josh Allen, if you go back and look at his. stats through two years, you probably would have cut them from your team. You just looked absolutely lost. We've seen how that pan down. So, Zach Wilson, yeah, it's not good right now.

But the bet me and Chad talked about making here was simply because the Jets defense. This is a good matchup. We talked about the under as well. This is one of my favorite under bets. I bet early in the week. It's down in most books to 38 now, down from 38 and a half, down to 39, 38 and a half, now down to 38. I still think he's going to play.

Like what you just talked about, he's a psycho saying he's got, Wolverine blood. But I mean, he's a competitor. Like I thought he should have rested last week after he'd gotten surgery on his shoulder. He went out there and played. He threw 13 yards in the second half. I know they're blaming his handstring on part of that. It feels all mental. Like it feels like the guy he's missing. It has nothing to do with his body. They're wide open in front of him. He's just not seeing them. Whatever it is, he's just locking in on people. So it's the public dog of the week. Like everyone in their grandmas, we bet in the jets. The jets are the hottest team. I mean, the Northeast here, all the New York books, all the Jersey books, all the PA

books as well, they're just going to be taking tons and tons of Jets money. So I know I'm on the public side here. Maybe I'll just tease them now. You can tease them up to seven. That's a pretty great number to have against a Broncos team that can't blow teams out, especially a good defense like the Jets. But we could be stepping into Chad. I just, again, if it comes to Sunday, we're getting a plus one and a half, plus two and a half. And we know it's Russ going to play through an injury. I feel like we're probably going to end up having the Jets. That's just why I want to bring that game up before he moved on. Totally got it.

By the way, he didn't have surgery on his shoulder. He had an injection in his shoulder. Oh, okay. Tip off the NBA season with Fandual, America's number one. Sportsbook, new customers get $150 in free bets. Guarantee when you place your first $5 bet. Plus, Fandul is the only sports book that's giving all customers three months of NBA league pass.

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We are going, I know there's people listening live on AMP. They are asking about Thursday Night Football Picks. We will get to that. Give us a minute. First, Simon, you're ahead and scooch roulette, our head-to-head battle. You get to go first. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

Let's play! Scooch Roulette. that. Oh, God. And I try not to double dip, I might have to do this week. You want Washington so badly. I know you do. I do.

It's just a really good number. But I'm trying to be good and not double dip because it's served me well these last couple weeks. Give me Seattle. Oh, you. That's your eye. That's what I wanted. All right.

Seattle. Damn it. What is it? Is it a five and a half? You're taking it at five and a half? Yeah, I'll take it a five and a half. That's fine. Gosh, darn, darn.

All right. Well, I don't want to double dip on Houston. You've been double dipping. Yeah, but I don't want to. I want to be, you know, Atlanta's out, Washington's out, 49ers are out. All right. You know what? Here we go.

You know what? I know we're not going to do it in the contest. Give me the goddamn lines. Wow. I'm biting the decaps. Survivor, I think it's still Patriots or Bucks. Yeah. No other choices.

And the fact that now it's definitely PJ being the quarterback for Carolina. Again, look at the buck schedule. Let's do the same thing with the Patriots and ask yourself when you're going to take them again. So that's how me and Chad, we've gotten lucky. But a couple of our picks this year, I've done it that way. Here we are on week seven still somehow alive. It feels like an easy week. Those are usually the dangerous ones.

But I can't see Patriots losing at home to this Bears team. And I just can't see the bucks dropping another game. Like this week has to be hell. for that Puccaneers team with Tom Brady at the helm. So yeah, like both, up to the fans of picking shoes, I would say which way I'm leaning the highest right now would be the Patriots, just because their division's so hard. I just don't see us taking them against the Jets, Miami.

Obviously not the bills where there's other opportunities to take this Bucks team down the road. So I would say it's more likely we take the Patriots. All right. Money line around Robin, I'm going to say the teams, I think that we're going to put in it, ready? Yeah. We're going to put in the Falcons.

I didn't realize. People said we went three and two last week. Let's go. Falcons we're going to put in there. Seattle. Yep. Niners. Yep.

Washington. Yep. And then who else? Nope. There's a bunch of different avenues we could go here. Like every orifice in my body. You already said Houston, right? I didn't say Houston.

I said Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington. Houston. jumps out just because again, who is Vegas be catching that many points? Like we have to take the value on that one. And then just because of injury report and no one else is doing it, like I know no one else is doing this, Cleveland's money line. Against a team in Baltimore that has just melted against so many teams in this fourth quarter.

Like, it just jumped out. So that's terrible. Let's put Houston in. All right. Houston over the Browns. That's fair. Money line round Robin. Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston. let's give people who are listening live a last minute Thursday night football pick I know what you think and I got to tell you it's different than what I think you like Cardinals tonight I think I like the Cardinals. I mean I can't fault you for it.

I think DeAndre Hopkins is a big deal. I think him coming back is a really big deal. It changes it literally tilts the field. Not literally. That was stupid. but it tilts the field. The Cardinals in a way that just changes the game plan. I like the Cardinals.

Short home dog. I mean, short home favorite Thursday night. That tends to be the play anyways. It's going to be an ugly game. So give me the Cardinals. And I'll just take the better team. The Saints are the better team. I'll just take them blindly here.

And I'm happy to lose money on it. All the numbers back up, Chad, bet in the favorites, especially short home favorites, has been very profitable on Thursday nights. Again, just a blindly bet thing. If you just want to just bet all the trends, I think you're right with Chad here. If you just want to go, based off the numbers, I think the best play for me will be the first half. I'll just take the Saints.

Team that should be more prepared. They obviously have been better than the Cardinals in the first half early this season. Another sneaky play I like just a long shot play. Taysam Hill, he might get a lot of touches at quarterback this week just because any Dolan has a back issue. So I see them subbing out. I read a couple of beat writers talking about him getting way more touches this week, Tastom Hill. Cardinals run defense is bad. So at plus 190, anytime touchdown, Taysam Hill,

that to me has value on a guy that could be the number one QB midway through the second quarter. Again, Andy Dahl takes one bad hit. They're going to yank him. They said they're not going to mess around with it. He wants to play. They're going to risk him injuring himself for the whole season. So sneaky play for me would be Taysam Hill anytime touchdown.

Yeah, because you can totally predict when a guy is going to get a bad hit and whether or not it's going to be season ending in the game of football. So really good planning there. All right. we've done it all, Simon. We've narrowed down our five right now. If we had to do it today, it would be Jags, Washington, Houston, Niners. And then we'd probably debate Seattle and Atlanta.

The money line around Robin, reminder, Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston. Scoot, Rulette, you're on Seattle. I'm on the Lions. Our big balls, better the week. Atlanta plus six. I've got to remind people, listen to Buckets, the podcast, our NBA podcast launched daily this week with Matt Moore and a rotating all-star cast of betting analysts. If you want to bet the NBA, you've got to do it every day.

You've got to listen to buckets every single day. Don't forget, use QuickFlip with the Action Network app and Fanduel. It is genius technology, automagical, so much easier than having to search around a sports betting app for the game that you want. We'll take you right there, my friends. right there from the Action Network app. Use quick flip. For Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell.

I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us on Apple Podcasts on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

Love you. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.