The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 8

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter of Action Network return to narrow down their favorite picks for NFL Week 8. Is now the time to buy on Kliff Kingsbury? Are the Texans a side worth taking? And can the Jets soars to new heights against the Patriots? #Volume #ColinCowherd #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Hope and why or text Hope NY 467369 in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-978-8-9. Call 1-800-2-2-470 in Wyoming or visit www. www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined by my co-hosts, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, every episode, professional better, Simon Hunter.

We are on the eaves, the eaves of the Phillies playing the afters in the World Series. So a week from right now, me and you are going to be in person together. Can we tell the fans where? Dude, let's talk about it. We got it. It's a week from right now. A week from right now, me, you, Matt Mitchell. will be descending on Lexington, Kentucky.

Thursday night, we're going to hang out with our friend Stucky, too, co-host of the Action Network NFL podcast with Raybon, which will reference in the show. Then we'll be doing a live podcast. We're super excited. We'll give more details about how people in the area can attend as we get closer and as we get them. But yeah, we'll be together, my man. I can't wait.

So I love it. I've been jokingly chad the whole time, how we haven't been letting anyone know that we're going there. And I just realized it's literally a week away. We're going to get to this place, have a live show. and two people are going to be there, which wouldn't be the worst thing. Two loyal fans show up. I listen to me.

Do you know how many times I've done book signings where there can be 200 and literally one? There was one book signing that I did for the book I did about the Steelers and the Cowboys, and I co-wrote it with somebody. And look, that was a bestseller, one of my four of the seven books I've written. But we did a book signing in Pittsburgh. There were two authors there, one guest. You never know what's going to happen. live events, that's what makes them exciting.

You can be completely surprised or you can be completely tickled with sadness. I'm sure you had a month notice to all these people before you went to these book signings. I'm just don't feel bad people. If you can't make it to Lexington, we're giving you a week notice. I'm sure me and Chad will do other live events.

We'll meet people. I know people always ask, like, can we get a drinks and meet with you guys? We'll figure something out. This is more like, this is what, the volume, right? So this is through the volume. This is why we're all going there. So Matt Mitch wants to let everyone know.

The favorites episodes will be done as normal. We'll still be putting out the show Thursday, Friday morning. Hey, thanks, Chad and Simon. I'll jump in here for the logistics. So next week, Chad, Simon, and I are heading to Lexington, Kentucky for the Breeders Cup. Here's the deal with the schedule for the show. Tuesday, no changes will release the show. Like we always do late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

That show will also record live on AMP. after 1.30 p.m. in the afternoon. Then on Thursday, we're all going to fly to Lexington. We will record together in some hotel room. That, again, the podcast version, exactly the same. We'll come out late Thursday into Friday morning, same as always. That show will also release live on amp, 245 p.m. Eastern time. That would be my guess right now. Then we'll have a bonus podcast episode that we'll record in person in Lexington for the Breeders' Cup. We'll cover NFL stuff, World Series stuff, Breeders' Cup stuff. We'll record that and then release it immediately upon completion.

It should be somewhere around noon, eastern. Next week, if you don't care about AMP, podcast will have its normal episode out, late Tuesday into Wednesday, late Thursday into Friday, and a bonus episode Friday afternoon from Lexington. So that's all you need to know. if you're just a podcast listener, we'll have a, you know, Wednesday morning, a Friday morning

and a Friday afternoon bonus episode. Doing a live show, obviously we'll be able to meet some people in the local area. I think it'll be pretty cool to meet actual fans because for the most part, I've literally had, I don't know, I would say 80 interactions, 70 interactions with fans of the show. Just one bad egg out of all of it. And to me, that's pretty good, pretty good numbers to start this thing off with. Speaking of pretty good numbers, we should get to the show. It's week eight.

We got to finalize our final five. We got to give a big balls bed of the week. We got to do some scooch roulette. We'll probably do a money line round rob and parlor. Not probably we will. But first, before we get to anything, we got to do. Sharp calls. Hello.

Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do it? This is, of course, when we get some feelings. from the professional betters who listen to the show, and they give us their take on what we got right and what we got wrong from the previous episode.

Simon, what are people saying? I feel like it was, again, this is only going to help, I guess, our live listeners. So I'll just be brief. I just going to believe how many guys like the bucks tonight. It feels like they're just betting a spot and trying to be sharper than they're sharp. It's just, I don't get the reasoning behind it,

but that was one of the bigger calls I got. And I just told them simply, So there's no world. Me and Chad are going to have the bucks in our contest. I get it. Great spot, but I just can't do it. So one they agreed on us with that I think you've come around on was Cowboys. Again, they talked to us about it last week.

Me and Chad were on the other side. Luckily, we didn't play the lines in the contest. I think this week we're going to do a big spread. It's looking like the Cowboys. Like I like the matchup. Chad loves watching videos of people celebrating the locker rooms and getting mad about it, which I love about old man, Chad. Well, listen, what you're referencing is, of course, we talked about, listen, as soon as we saw that Cowboys Bears line, we both agreed the Cowboys were the right side.

Right. And then, of course, I'm on the social media. I follow the Bears everywhere. And there is a celebration from the locker room. You had talked about what the Bears were going to be doing that after that game on Monday night. And, of course, there was a celebration of the locker room. I didn't even watch the whole thing. I just slacked you and Matt Mitchell.

I'm like, fading the bears. That was it. I sent you the link and the fade the bears. I'm 100% fading the bears. I'm with you. So I knew we were getting a couple calls of guys back in that one because I'm starting to see a trend, a little bit of a trend here of just them buying the dip on Dallas, right?

I think Dallas, they're clearly really good. Like there's three or four teams NFC that are just performing really well. I mean, there's no denying at this point. The Cowboys have an incredible defense. So I wasn't surprised getting that call. Again, we'll break that down more as we go along here. The one they want to stay away from, which I still think I like, was Vegas. They see it as a good spot for this Saints team.

They think they're undervalued. Can't talk me out of that one. Again, we'll talk more about that as we go along here. But just surprising here that so many guys like the Saints in that spot. And then a one we have to take apparently. We can't not take, Chad. Houston. We thought that line was fishy.

We thought it stunk a little. We said wait, maybe you'll be able to get some points back on it. It's gone from one and a half up to two and a half. Yeah. Man, again, that might be our BBB bed of the week. Man, that is, I just couldn't believe it when they kept saying. I said there's so many other options on the board. You really love that one.

It wasn't just like one or two professionals. It was just about every guy I talked to this past two days. So that's definitely more going to have to dive into more because I would love to hear what you're at with that one. So that of coming out of the call, the most confident pick I felt was the Cowboys. Didn't hear much love for our Cleveland pick. Surprisingly,

I think guys are just scared to get in front of Joe Burrow right now because he's playing so hot. And didn't hear much love for the Jets. I think guys are like you. They're like ready to get off the Jets train here. So just an interesting week, a lot of pros because there's so many home dogs, home divisional dogs,

which, again, is just very profitable to take in these positions. It's really interesting that you say that about the Texans because I'm starting to fall in love with the Texans here. And I know we fall in love with the Texans every single week. But this is lining up to be a really good spot. So we can get into that for sure. Let's go down the list here because there's a couple other games that I want to get to. I agree with the wise guys who are coming in and saying they don't like the Jets. It makes me nervous.

I'm trying to find the logic. There's two sides of the coin here. Are you going against the team that are you going with the trend of playing the team that got blown out on prime time and fading the team that's on a hot streak that everybody is falling in love with? or do you play the team that is the home dog in a divisional matchup? Those are the signals that we're battling against. And it ends up being which one do you favor more? And the reason I'm having a hard time is because these are all the things that I look for at one time playing against each other. I look for it too.

I think the big thing that kept getting brought to me was just all the Belichick, the Belichick trends versus Jet Steam. they have had their number for all 20 years he's been in New England for some reason they just even when the the jets were good they made all those aFC championship runs I know they did beat the Patriots one of those runs but I think the Patriots won the division every year that that happened again the Patriots have just played well against him Belichick he's 12 and 0 right now against them the last 12 times they've played I'm trying to throw all that stuff out because I'm trying to think this is the new Jets error like this ain't the same old Jets.

to me. They got the players on this team. It's, it is brutal, though, when you think about this is the time to fade the Jets. I think that's where these pros are, right? Like Chad just said, they're on four straight wins, four straight covers, all his underdogs until last week, right? They flipped to be a favor. But I just think they're still just being devalued by the public. Like, the public is coming and they bet the Patriots. Again, the pros weren't saying they're a bet in the Patriots. They're just saying they're not touching the Jets. I feel like that's a bad spot to take them. So I don't know, nothing's really changed. I already did a teaser with them to them to Bucks, because we talked about on Tuesday, bucks, you could have teased them up to seven and a half.

That was a good number. It was the same thing with the Jets. Like I probably should have waited, right? The Jets are now up to two and a half for one and a half. But I just was like, you know, it'll take up to seven and a half. Matt Jones looks broken. So they can keep saying all these trends, all these things they want. I try to always take in all this stuff, but I also have to trust my numbers and trust this Jets team and the fact that they've just been covered. for me. They've been winning for me. And for the same things I like about him, nothing's changed. Like, their defense is really good. Going up against a team that's one dimensional right now. All you got to do is stop the run with the Patriots. You won. Again, this sounds crazy to say,

you won Matt Jones throwing the ball. He has been atrocious this year every time he drops back. So maybe me and Chad won't have it in our contest, right? Maybe that's what we'll do again, like last week. We'll just stay away from it. But nothing changed for me on the Jets team, even though I know you're right. Like, this is me staying on too long. I'm just playing the number here, and it's just like, who the hell are the Patriots be two and a half against the Jets? Like the Patriots.

Are we sure the Patriots are good, right? Like, that's why I had to keep asking myself. Remember when they played Green Bay with Zappy and like, yeah, they probably should have won that game, but they didn't. And Green Bay looks terrible. And then they beat up Cleveland, which, I don't know, Cleveland doesn't look like the best team. So they're just, I'm just a little weary of this New England team.

where this Jets team, they've been smacking everyone they've played. Like, ever since that Miami game, they've just been bullying these teams. So I just feel like the Jets identity is more tangible to me right now than saying the New England Patriots should just win this game because Belichick is 12 and 0 against the Jets. Well, listen, number one, I've never seen such concern on your face when we've talked about a game. You seem so conflicted because you believe in your heart that the, Jets are the right side, but I know how seriously you take the opinion of other professional betters. And it is, it is killing you right now. Because it should be an auto play. I just don't get it.

And like, I can't wait to talk shit to these guys if it hits, but I'm not going to do that because I try to be a pro. But geez, it feels like we're missing one here. Well, look, I, it, there's, I don't think we can put this in the contest for a couple of reasons. I think there's way too many conflicting signals to feel, you know, if we, if we, if the contest is a reflection of our confidence level in games, I don't think we have a confidence level with the Jets that that will be higher than five other games. Like, there are four games that I've squared that we didn't even put on the list on Tuesday when we spoke. You like, but I feel better about than the Jets. All right. I'll hear it. So the other game that we talked about, and I kind of want to take this off

right now is the Falcons minus four and a half. So we believed betting the Falcons at minus four and a half, it was time to get back on the Falcons. We bet the Falcons at plus six last week against the Bengals, didn't work out, plus six and a half. It was peak Falcons. We were wrong. We knew we were stepping into it. This week, we got back on the Falcons right away. I am very concerned about their defensive secondary and that, A, they can't get pressure, and B, they can't cover anybody now.

I'm not so concerned about, you know, the Panthers beating them. I just feel like, is my confidence level high enough on the Falcons that I think this number is right compared to other games that I like a little more? Okay. I mean, that's fair. Again, it's two divisional,

it's a divisional game between two teams that just aren't that good. So I agree with, that you probably should take the points there. I just think such an easy spot to fade Carolina in such a letdown spot after such a big win. So completely agree. The injury to the injury to. Terrell.

Yes, who's an all-pro cornerback to them. That's a big deal. We talked about it last week. That was a huge deal against the Bengals. So I'll ride with you on that. I could stay away from that one because there are a decent amount of other games I like to this week. Lions plus three and a half.

Still love them. Love them more than I ever have. I've been tracking DeAndre Swift all week. Full practice, not on the injury list. Amonra St. Brown, expected back. They're playing at home. It's a by-low, sell high on the dolphins. Everything about this to me screams Detroit Rock City.

Hello, Detroit. Well, bye and I'll blame Chad if it doesn't win. No, of course, I'm going to be on this one, too. I'm just, Chad knows, I'm fearful of this day. Campbell thing, man. I do not like what I've seen from Detroit these last couple of weeks. They started out so well. I mean, the offense was incredible. I know they had a bunch of injuries and that's what really slowed them down. But man, it's just bad vibes right now with a team that, again, people don't get it. If you're not winning, that's got to take a toll on you. And it's been

a lot of years, a lot of guys playing on the Detroit team that have not been winning last year and this year included. So this has got to be the everything game. That's why I'll ride with chat on it. Like, again, this feels like this should be it for Dan Campbell if they can't win this one. But I don't know what to make of it. Good number. Play the three and a half. We play that every time. Yep.

But Detroit, they got to show it here. Again, Amonte Brown, that'd be great if he's back. I think Chad nailed it. The Swift, that's the big deal to me. He is the game changer for them. We've seen what they've been like without him. So they desperately need Swift back.

And at three and a half, that's great value. I believe the Lions will be in our money. line, Ron Robin, underdog, parley. Of course. All right, let's talk about the Seahawks. We have a minute minus three. Are they one of our five most confident? Probably not just because of the Giants are our daddy.

Giants are 6 and 1 ATS this season. Me and Chad, I think, are 0 and 5 picking against them. So, yeah, that's the one reason I'll stay off. But if it's two and a half in the contest. Got to. Got to be tempting. Yeah, exactly. That's going to be really tempting.

and taking a short favorite there and a game that should lane on three. Like that feels like a good number. Yep. The Giants are going to be down 10. Daniel Jones will throw a touchdown. They'll somehow cover that three and a half three just because that's what the Giants have done all year.

So again, the luck metrics, I love them, follow them. They're the number one luckiest team of football right now. It's incredible what they've done with the talent they have. But yeah, two and a half again, me and Chad, we'll have a tough decision on Sunday to make with the Seahult just sitting there in contest. All right. the last one on our list from the other day.

It's the Simon says, we bet it Browns plus three. Even though we said it was going to go to three and a half. It's now a three and a half. Yeah, which we said that was going to happen. So what is the trepidation here? I mean, I still love it. I was shocked to know their pros are on it.

I think it's the Joe Burrow effect, though. The guy is on a little bit of a heater right now, right? They started out really slow. He's kind of put it together and they've been beaten up. on bad teams. Cleveland is viewed as a very bad team. I had a couple of people reach out about DBOA. I'm the wrong guy. I hate DVOA. I'm the biggest nayser of the OA. It's just the lazy man stat. Again, there's Bengals team last year DVOA. They were like 20th. They went to the Super Bowl. DVOA don't mean shit. It's just a nice little parameter where it's like, yeah, if I have a team

that's a number one DVOA defense going against the 29th DBOA offense, sure. That's me. meaningful, okay? That's going to matter. But other stuff, like, that doesn't really matter to me, especially when you're going off numbers of seven weeks in at DVOA, it's like based off matchup, schemes, backup quarterbacks, a lot of stuff can get skewed that way. So that was the biggest thing reached out to me about. This is a horrible team DVOA-wise, the Browns, go to get to high-power offense DVO-A-wise of this Bengals team, which, yeah, makes sense. The Bengals have put up a shit ton of points and yards. The Browns have given up a ton of yards and points. They're not as bad as their record has shown.

The Browns, again, have lost a bunch of close games. We talk all the time. I try to get too freaked out about one possession games because those are coin flips to me. And we've seen the Browns. I don't know if you saw that clip with the Ravens, Chad. They called them for whatever it was, off sides, false start. It was a bad call. Like the Browns probably should have stole that game against the Ravens.

I still think they're being underrated. Or since he just beat the crap out of Atlanta. It's just such a sell high spot on an Atlanta team. And a Brown team that no one's going to bet. I told you that a Monday night game. Everyone's going to be chasing. You're going to get a good number. That's why I thought I would go back up with three and a half.

It moved quick. That moved quick to three and a half. It literally went that night. So you can keep waiting, maybe open for the four, but I can promise you it's going to be a pros versus Joe's game. I know pros are going to come in on the Browns. I know the public will have every teaser, every money line parlay, everything tied to that money night game.

So it's just an easy spot for me to take this Browns team. You hate DVOA. I do. I think it's good, though, if you're just, if you're lazy, just trying to find quick numbers, I think it's great because it's literally two lists and you're done, while other people have to do tons of work to find those numbers. I have a question, but first I want to feel some questions from the live listeners on AMP who are sending Matt Mitchell some questions in the chat.

I would encourage everyone to do that. We can answer them live. Is this a good game to bet live with the assumption that it'll end with in three points either way. Yeah, again, I'm the wrong guy for live betting because I don't do it because I can't really get that much money down doing it. So that's why I'd rarely ever give it out because it's like it's like the ultimate cheat code.

Yeah, there's plenty of times where like even off the time I had the bangles playing the Ravens. We talked about the exact same scenario of the Ravens get out fast and they play bad in the second half. So the Ravens were up, I think 10-0 on the Bengals. The line shot away up to 11 and a half for the Bengals, right? Plus 11 and a half. Yeah, I want to give that out as an easy play. Of course, it's a divisional game.

Two teams are going to keep it close. I think the final score is Ravens by three. So divisional games like this, I love playing live dogs, especially home dogs. It's always great opportunities to play these kind of things. So yeah, if you just want to wait and play it live, always. I mean, that's, I say it all the time, playing live is a lot easier than betting games beforehand. You can just find a lot of opportunities betting live, but you also get in a lot of trouble chasing. And that's why I try not to give out live betting because a lot of people get hurt that way.

Like they'll have a great one o'clock afternoon, right? They'll win four out of five games. So they're up, say $400. Then the next two games in the 4 p.m. isn't going their way. And they start chasing and start using the money they'd already won. That's my issue with live betting where it's like you just take the L and move on instead of being like, no, I'm right. This is why I keep hitting this live number.

But in divisional games like this, I love playing the dog, especially I know what Joe Burroughs team is. incredible second half defensively. Like Joe puts up 24 points and the Browns have seven points head into halftime, it's over. That's a dead bet. So that I would not recommend. But again, if the Browns are up 14-0

on the Bengals, hell yeah, coming on the Bengals. You hate DVOA. I do. What is a stat that you look at as a better that you feel is predictive.

My big reason I think I have a little bit of an edge on most books is I'm really into D-line play and offensive line play. So to me, if you can go into different sites and look at different run blocking schemes, different offensive schemes, and then you go and see how the D-line performs against those schemes, again, pro football focus, they have good numbers over there. Again, they're a thing that books just won't account for because they don't care about that stuff. So Carolina last week, if you would have looked at it, they performed really well against the certain blocking scheme of the books were going to run, right? The books could not run the ball, made them one dimensional.

And that was a huge advantage for Carolina. Did I nail that pick? No, but me and Chad were simply like, yeah, you take the home divisional dog. We weren't blindly just saying that, right? There's always going to be numbers backing up stuff. Just do people really want me to come on here and break down the defensive line, offensive line play? I mean, there's other shows that do that. So to me, I'm looking for edges in places people aren't looking,

and that's where I find big discrepancies. Again, I missed it big time on the Lions, right? I had the Lions graded as my third best offensive line. Big miss. I also had the Eagles my number one graded, and Kansas City is my number two graded. Okay, we see my Eagles futures, my Super Bowl future is great on the Chiefs. It wasn't me just betting their offensive line.

It was more about you're giving me Mahomes behind the best offensive line. And the same thing with the Eagles. It's like I was basically, I liked all the talent on paper. It was all about hurts. So to me, if people want to know what my advantages and what I'm looking for, that's where I really start, honestly. I look in the trenches and that's where you'll find so much value because no one wants to look at that stuff.

It's boring. It's bland. No one talks about it. But I'm telling you, there's a whole little world inside that offensive, defensive line matchups that you'll be able to find value in certain games that way. that's fascinating. I don't want to shit on DVOA though. I'm telling you, if you're just a sports fan

and you want to look at something for one minute, do it. It's the perfect lazy man thing. But if you're just blindly betting, you're going to get screwed. It's public. Everyone has those numbers and everyone uses that numbers. There's no advantage on lines simply betting DVOA. It's too publicly known to find an advantage.

I just think it's nice for our baseline. So that's what I don't want to shit on it. I know people use it. I just want to make it my number one thing. It's fascinating. For years, I know that professional betters, they're watching the second game of preseason, the third game of preseason years ago

when there was a fourth game, a fourth game of preseason. Not because they're betting crazy amounts on these games. They want to grade the second string right tackle. They want to grade the third string left guard. Because at some point, those players are going to have to play and they always found the advantage in offensive line play. And whoever was backfilling and if they were good or not was going to have a huge impact on whether or not they found value in the number.

It's like you're 100% right. Look, you're talking to a guy who's full belief and philosophy about building teams is an offensive line metaphor. I thought you're going to say DVOA, which would be hilarious. When we were starting Action Network, before it even begun, Like I left ESPN. I'm sitting in the VC office of the place that was founding it. And we're talking about who we want to hire and talent.

And they've got all these names on the board of people who are high profile, who we know like sports betting. Again, this is 2017. Yeah. Like we knew these people like sports betting, but they weren't doing sports betting. And they want to spend this much money and this much money. I'm like, you guys, we got to hire the fucking offensive line.

Like we cannot put anything out if we don't have the people who are making the decisions and putting stuff on the website. I'm a huge believer in building around an offensive line. Again, people building out models. That's where I start a lot of my edges. Like I look offensive line play, but I talk all the time. If you're building a football model, the number one thing is always going to be quarterback. Like, again, there's not too many giants, jets teams out there that can hide their QB and I haven't worked for them. but certain schemes can do that.

So that's just something you need to be a paying attention to. Right now we like the Lions a lot, plus three and a half. Everything else we're wavering. So I want to throw out some other teams. I would not be uncomfortable putting the Cowboys in at minus nine and a half. Yeah, auto play it for me. Again, we touched on it where we like the defensive matchup. We like Michael Parsons against the fields.

But the biggest thing is just this Cowboys team's defense is built for the exact style that this bears offense likes to run. So to me, they might find an edge in running, right? That might be where they look to find an edge in the bears, but they have the same tape we all have. Like, you've got to bring, you just got to bring the house to stop the run and have a QB spy for fields, and you'll be good. The kid doesn't get it.

You can't hold onto the ball for as long as he holds onto the ball. Now you're going against a defensive line that is arguably the best on football at sacking the quarterback and against the quarterback that holds on the ball too long. So it's the same spot when we kind of faded. We took the Cowboys against the Washington commanders. Like, again, it was more people all over the Washington that spot. They're like, this number is a fishy number. We kept saying it's Wentz, though, against that D-line.

I got to holds on to the ball too much. Number two, I holding the ball, the longest right now being great out this year is field. So just a bad matchup for a Bears team coming off a huge win. Again, we talked about being a letdown spot. You mix that in. A young team and a great, a young team with a big, great win on a Monday night game. It's never a good formula for them the following week. Now you're going on the road to play against a Dallas team that's just, you know,

getting after in every game against the quarterback. So yeah, like a Cowboys. Back. No brainer. All right. Another game that I have completely fallen in love with over the past few days. And we talked about it on the podcast earlier this week. You asked my opinion.

I didn't love it, but I felt like we had to do it. The Arizona Cardinals. And the more I look at this, I was doing some research this morning. on my own, I was doing the research, and then I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the Action Network podcast, and they confirmed it for me. This is a different team with DeAndre Hopkins,

and I said this the other day. This team, Kyler Murray, 17 and 10 with DeAndre Hopkins, 6, 13, and one without him. Hopkins comes back, goes for 10, 103 last week. They're playing a Minnesota team that I still think is a bit of a fraud and has been getting lucky,

and their defense is dreadful. defense is the last three games. They've had fewer yards per play than the team they played, which to me shows the other team has actually played better. They've gotten good bounces. There's a regression. They are terrible at covering a number one receiver. Everything to me lines up. And I will say this. I got a theory. We're about to enter November. Cliff Kingsbury usually turns into the worst coach in the NFL in November. What if we're living in Bizarro Cliff Kingsbury universe where because he's getting DeHondre Hopkins back and because the Cardinals were so bad early in the year, the colonels actually become good. So I like the Cardinals

plus four. Love him. Love him in the contest. We might have a bet off, brother. No. Yeah, I flipped. I like the Vikings. No. I'm so sorry. I do. I do. I know. They're getting you though. Sharp trap. Dude. They're getting you. Don't do it, Chad. You know better. Too late.

It's a bed off. Vikings 1 o'clock at home. I should have known better than get sucked in on this Cardinals love. Of course they're giving us plus three and a half. They want us to take this game so bad.

They're begging you to take Arizona. Guess what the public is doing. They're coming in heavy on Arizona. Chad getting sucked in. The Hopkins hype. I'm going to lose money on Kirk. I've already. accepted it. I got it back. And so this sadly will not be in our contest because there's no way

I'm taking the Cardinals here. Had a couple calls about it. A couple of sharps on the Vikings as well, but that didn't even flip me. It was just more looking at the day and it's just like Arizona sucks. They probably should have lost to New Orleans last week. They got very lucky on two pick sixes before the half. They haven't fixed a lot of their issues. I like the Hopkins move. I agree. It's a big upgrade for them. He doesn't fix anything for them on offense. They got me. major issues. So to me, Vikings, full game, Vikings first half, fuck the Cardinals, ain't doing it. Dude. Dude, we got a bet off. We got a full on bed off. Who's going to be my bitch? I'm 1.0 on bet off. So I'm feeling good. Oh, my God. I can't believe I got to have this much pressure on

the game. I've already bet the game. And now I got to have a bet off pressure. I know. I bet it too. I bought out of my position, though, because I was I was with you on Tuesday. It's like, hell yeah, you take the Cardinals here every time. Like, Kirk is not that good. Their record, they're not what their record says they are. But when you really break down the film and the numbers on Arizona, Chad, they are broken. Again, even with the Rams being as bad they are, I still see the Cardinals finishing fourth in this division. I am shocked.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. You want to get to the big balls? Well, I just said Texans, as you said big balls. And I feel like that just shows that you and I are having the mind meld that we always have except on our big, our betoffs.

Benoffs are a healthy relationship, though. It's true. It's totally true. It's time. Big balls, better than week. Really going to take some big balls, right, Chad? This might be one of our bigger balls of the week of the year. You seem like dead.

people are leaving them for dead. They view them as the worst team in football, which they might be, and me and Chad might be walking right into it, betting against their divisional leader in Tennessee. But I do think Tanyl is banged up. I think that's real. The amount of professionals that reached out to me

said they like Houston here for that simple fact of he's not healthy. We'll do it. We'll walk right into it. This is going to be painful as hell. Play the number here, people. Two and a half should not be what it is. Like this is another game this week the public is going to view is free money.

And the books aren't your friend. They're not just giving away money. They're setting you up for a trap. So I like the Houston aspect. The only worry with Houston is this is Sellers Week, right? So, you know, if you want to get the hell out of Houston, this is the week you tank because you're going to get traded for the deadline this upcoming week. But I look at the matchup, the scheme.

this Tennessee team just has not been playing that well. Again, their defense is really, but what's holding that team together through a bunch of different games. Our defense just gets the turnaround makes the plays. Houston, historically in this position, plays well against Tennessee.

So, so divisional home dog. We can't take all of them, but this is one of these where if I can't get the Jets in the contest, you got a least letting me get Texans in. Dude, I'm with you 100% on this. I love this. That's a good one. Marking it down.

I heard a stat, I think, on the Action Network Pod this morning, that the Titans are allowing 21 points a game and scoring 19 points a game. And yet they're four and two and leading the division. That's probably because what, the bill is just beat the crap out of that one game. This is not a great football team right now. No, no. So I love the Texans at plus two and a half year. As you were talking. Hoping to get the three though, right? The public will keep hammering Tennessee. So if me, I could get three in the contest, three and a half, that'd be amazing. I got no issue taking my two and a half, though.

Well, listen, as you were talking, I went into the Action Network app. I clicked on this game. I used Fandua quick slip and made the bet as you were talking. It took me about 13 seconds. It was that easy.

What number? I took it at two and a half. Two and a half. I'm okay with taking it at two and a half. Me too. But to the loyal listeners, I always want them to hopefully get the best of the number. I do think the public will hammer Tennessee and you'll be able to get a three. Yeah, that's true. Totally true.

All right. So we got the Texans in lines three and a half boys, nine and a half Texans plus two and a half. I will tell you right now, I'm feeling more optimistic about this lineup so far than any lineup we've had this year. It's never good for us. Usually when we hate it, we do good. Yeah, that's true. The foxhole bet for us the other day was 49ers minus one and a half. Yeah, you hated it.

Now I love it. Let's do it. And again, that's another one where I didn't break it down too much, but that was just mainly offensive line, defensive line. And I just think we have a huge edge with the 49ers. And after getting embarrassed last week against the Chiefs, they're going to be hearing it all week. And this is such a bounceback spot. Historically, Shanahan versus McVeigh,

he schemes it up against him. He just does really well in these matchups. So I'm happy here you came around. on it. I knew you would. This would be our biggest public play. Last week, our biggest public play was Tennessee came through for us. This week, it's going to be the 49ers. I know they're going to get every teaser, every money line parlay. Everyone's going to have them thrown in there just because public is watched this in the Rams team. They're not being, they're not being sold full as gold here. We know they had major issues and they have no run game. And we've just seen the running back is

now in the injury report, right? Henderson's out. So they're bringing up some young kid to play who hasn't played all year. Just not good juju right now for the ramps. All right. Lions three and a half, boys nine and a half minus nine and a half. Texans plus two and a half, 49ers minus one and a half. One more game. You liked it a lot the other day. I'm liking it even more now. Washington plus three. And I was actually surprised we talked about the line movement on it. I just couldn't believe Matt Ryan was worth a point. Because from everything I've seen this kid, Sam's not as bad. Or he's just more athletic, I should and then Matt Ryan.

So he should bring something new to this offense. But again, we might be stepping in here, but we have to take, we have to take Washington. It's going to be a public dog. I think everyone's going to be on them because everyone's feeling good if you took them last week. And this Colts team let a lot of people down last week.

Not only did they lose the spread, they burned a ton of people on teasers, right? Everyone teased them up to eight and a half. They lost by nine. Usually the public's really mad about those kind of teams. So I'm hoping we're not stepping in it. We're not waiting too long here, but I just like what Washington has, right? They have good pieces.

If they weren't in the NFC East, they'd probably be doing well in these other divisions. Most of their losses have just come in the division this season. So to me, Washington is not as bad as a record shows. And again, Heineke, we talked about last week. He wasn't going to be that much worse than when. What did we know he was going to be able to throw a pick six and be all right? But still, you watch that game. He had the offensive movie.

Like him throwing the ball to Terry McClure. I love that kind of stuff where it's like you got no read. You just get it to your best guy who's in single coverage. You let your best guy make a play. There's three different third downs, like 30 and eight, third and nine, third and 12. He made those kind of throws to Terry. I love that shit.

Like that's my favorite stuff seeing the QB trust in their best receivers. So again, this Colts team, they're just bad. They're just a bad team where I've seen Washington actually have good moments and good players and their scheme is good to me. So, yeah, me and Chad might be stepping right into it. I cannot take this plus three. I don't think we are. I think everything you said is true.

I think the market is not caught up to the fact that Taylor Heineke is a better quarterback for this team and they're still getting downgraded because of what they had done with Carson Wentz. The Colts thing is really interesting to me. Sometimes there are those stories that just start to fascinate you. And as soon as they benched Matt Ryan, I was reading some of the coverage. And I feel like Frank Reich, he had some quotes. in there. And he seemed like a lovely guy. And, but one of the quotes was basically, we thought it

would be great with Matt Ryan, with our running game and our offensive line. We didn't hold up our end of the bargain. And then he essentially said to Matt Ryan, it's not you, it's me, but you're getting benched. And to me, and then there was a weird transition. And Raybon and Stuckey talked about this on their podcast too, but in this story, there was this transition. about how involved was Jim Ursay in the decision making. And Reich basically said the decision was me, Ursae, and the GM. That's not a good way to run a football team. Yeah.

And so it feels like there's a lot, there's a lack of faith in what the coaching staff can do. It feels like the owner is getting too involved in the decision making. And they're given a quick hook to the quarterback. Matt Ryan for a guy who's a six, you know, round draft pick two years ago. So I think there's some real issues on the Colts. Yeah, and we talk all the time.

It all starts in football at the top. You go through all the different organizations that have success, that consistently have success. What is it? It's good ownership, good putting the right people in the general manager position and having owners that just shut the fuck up. Like they're letting people run their teams instead of stepping in,

controlling everything. I feel bad for the Colts because they're stuck in that middle level of hell. It's like you're not bad enough to get a franchise quarterback and you're not ever going to stop trying to pick up these guys and these one or two year deals because you have the pieces there. Like again, Jonathan Taylor was the best running back on football last year. Can't do a single thing this year. Cannot do anything.

So it's brutal if you're a Colts fan where maybe this is it, right? The kid Sam can come in. You'll know what you'll have in them or he's terrible and you can be bad this year and get a good draft. pick because it's different this year. The bottom's not really that bad, right? The couple of the worst teams, like the Saints, the Jaguars, even Houston, they're not that terrible.

Like them and the Bears, the differences in that extreme, but the hero of the bears at what, three and four, Chad? So there's going to be a bunch of teams that they're going to win some games they shouldn't. And I think even if the Colts tank this year, if they only won one or two more games, they might be able to still end up with a top four, top five pick where we just talked about. There's five good quarterbacks in this class that could work out for the Colts.

to me, I would do what they're doing. I would sit Matt Ryan and give the young kid a shot where, again, it's nothing against Matt Ryan. They did fail him in some aspects. He has the most interceptions, the most fumbles, and the most sacks in football right now. Again, not all on him, but some of it is on him. Simon, we've narrowed it down. And I'm really excited.

Lions plus three and a half, Cowboys minus nine and a half, Texans plus two and a half, Niners minus one and a half, Washington plus three. our foxhole is niners minus one and a half Simon says is Browns plus three executive decision from me is lines plus three and a half big balls Texans plus two and a half we have a bet off we have an official bet off Matt Mitchell we probably got to get some some bet off music now just play a clip of check on me a bit so I'll be fun and here comes a stoppage and play because someone has run on the field in this case you know what I think you are I think You're the bitch.

And it will not be a good night. We have a bet off with the cards and the Vikings. Simon, give me a Scoot Roulette pick. You're dominating right now. When all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. Yeah, what's the record of that Scoot Roulette stuff? I don't know.

You're far ahead. I do. What are you like? Are you like five and two now? Yeah. After a slow one and two star, the boys won four straight. Yeah. It's three and one.

Real cocky. He's now three and four. Wait, you're four and three and I'm three and four. No, no, no. I'm five and two. Don't you try to take one away. How dare you? Well, listen, what could be interesting, we have a bet off,

but should Scoot Roulette be the Vikings and the Cardinals? I'll do it. You really want to do that? Yeah, I was going to take the Cardinals anyways. You fool. You fool. All right, give it to me. Vikings.

You're a fool. it's not any one of my favorite bets and now it is. Now I have to load up on this just to even even feel like more of an idiot when the Cardinals do some. I cannot wait for the Cardinals to win. I know. They're going to not win. They're going to definitely backdoor though. This says backdoor written all over it.

Listen, it's not November yet. This game is being played before Halloween as Matt Mitchell will tell you. Matt, I know the AMP folks can't hear you, but for the benefit of the, you know, hundreds of thousands of podcast listeners, would you like to share? your Cliff Kingsbury theory. It's an annual tradition here on the favorites. Well, I'll do the full screed next week when it goes into effect, but Cliff Kingsbury is very much in bounds before Halloween, which is Monday. So you get it in just under the wire here.

You can bet him. But once his stock and the health and vitality of pumpkins are basically the same, we're approaching the other side of the curve for pumpkin futures, And same goes for Cliff Kingsbury. So I wish you the best of luck bettenham in this kind of final week of eligibility. Well, listen, Madam Mitchell is a man who knows pumpkins. We've had many conversations before we get on the air about the number of pumpkins decorating his front stoop, his sons. He has two kids.

He has a boy who's older. His son's obsession with pumpkins, also gores, which he doesn't really know how to differentiate. differentiate, kind of kind of teach the kid these things. So it's an apt analogy. Money line round robin parlay. I mean, obviously we're going with the lions. I think we got to go with the Texans. Washington.

Yeah. Who else? Can we get a big dog? That's a good. Because that was nice last week. Obviously, he only hit on the one, the Seahawks. But if Houston, when it came through, that had been a really nice pairing. You throw the Jets in there?

Jets? Lions, Texans, Washington, and the Jets. I know Matt Mitchell is putting this all under the chat for the live listeners right now. It pains me to do it, but they're the only team I could see of all the big favorites get upset. Eagles. I could just see this scenario that I'm sleepwalking in this game, even though, again, I'm taking the Eagles. Why would we not put the Cardinals in there instead of the Eagles? We can.

That's fair. I'm just trying to get a big dog because all these dogs are. little. Like I like having one big guy in there, because that really juices the odds. But this is a little dog week. Like, there's no really big dogs. Because I know we didn't talk on it, but like another survivor play is a cowboys, obviously, against the bear. So like, there's no way I'm picking the bears that went out right. There's no world I pick green bait and went out right. Yeah, there's just not, there's no really good big dogs this week. Lions, Texans, Washington Jets, cards. That's what I think we should do.

All right. Lions, Texans, Washington Jets cards. We've got a bet off. We are playing it in Scrutulet. You've got the Vikings. I've got the Cardinals. Our final five lines plus three and a half, boys minus nine and a half. Texans plus two and a half, 49ers minus one and a half, Washington plus three. Those lines are pretty stable right now.

So as you're listening to this, you should definitely go get them. Only one I'd wait on in Houston. Just hope to get that three. I just love the number three. It's okay. Even though I bet it two and a half. And I bet it too. I got answer.

got antsy uh i think we've done all we can do here brother um this has been the favorite podcast from the volume podcast network for simon hunter for matt mitchell i am chad millman you can download us from spotify podcast from apple podcast wherever you get your podcast please rate review subscribe leave us five stars say whatever you want feedback is a gift until next time love you another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.