The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 9

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

From a hotel room in The Horse Capital of the World, Action Network experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter quickly run through their favorite sides for this week's NFL slate, including their Big Balls ...Bet of the Week, and an underdog round robin parlay that's sure to please. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites presented by Fandual. Football season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual. I love betting with Fandul because their app is safe, secure and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code favorites and download the Fandual app today to make every moment more this football season. Must be 21 or older and in select states call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan.
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Starting point is 00:01:29 4-673-6-9. in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-978-9. Call 1-800-2-470-470 in Wyoming or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, chief content officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I am every episode by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, signs. Simon Hunter. Simon, you and I, it's crazy what's going on right now.
Starting point is 00:02:13 We've had a crazy 24 hours. Right now, you're in one room in a hotel in Lexington, Kentucky. I'm across the hall. Matt Mitchell is between us because we have our live show tomorrow at Keenland, at 1 p.m. Radio Row, 1 p.m. Eastern Friday. We encourage everybody to come by Radio Row. Check it out. Last night, you were in Philly for the World Series. I was in New York City for the Old City for the Old.
Starting point is 00:02:37 opening night of Bono's short promotional tour for his book. He's doing some concerts, like 10 around the country. Last night was the first one. We had a crazy night. Crazy night for both of us. You saw history. I saw history. You go first.
Starting point is 00:02:50 I will say Bono peaked after Sunday, Bloody Sunday. It's been a lot downhill ever since then. Don't, listen. We both had great nights. Why do you have to make it? I did not. How dare you say it agree? So I don't know if Chad believes in heaven or hell.
Starting point is 00:03:05 I don't really know if I believe in it either. do believe that if hell is real, it's a moment in your life in repeat mode. And I might have had mine last night. Seeing your baseball team be no hit, it's the most slow, painful death. And the fact that it's the World Series, I joke with Chad, the vibes going in were so good. Again, Philadelphia, if you're a fan of the team, friendliest, nicest people in the entire world. If you're not, they're the meanest people in the entire world. So the tailgate was amazing, Chad. going to the ballpark was amazing, just walking around and just sucking in the atmosphere,
Starting point is 00:03:39 I was looking it all in, was incredible, but by the third, fourth inning, you can just feel it, right? You know it is in a stadium. You can just start feeling things.
Starting point is 00:03:49 And that zero just kept getting bigger and bigger underneath the hit marker on the big scoreboard. So it was cool seeing history, right? I'll admit to that. Like, that's cool. But as a fan, it was horrible, because you're just waiting and waiting and waiting for the hits to come.
Starting point is 00:04:05 They never did. So again, fun night. But that's one of those. I wish it could have been the game before, right? We had five-home runs. Not the game we had zero hits. Yeah, it was a bummer. I felt bad.
Starting point is 00:04:17 I felt bad for you knowing you were there. I went to see Bono. Bono has a new book coming out. Came out this week called Surrender. And he was doing, he's doing these 10 sort of very intimate gigs around the country. The first one was last night at the Beacon Theater in Manhattan. which is about a block from where I lived when I lived in the city for many years. It was insane.
Starting point is 00:04:41 We got there. Five rows behind me, Bill Clinton, Tom Hanks, and it was so interesting. Bill Clinton comes in when the lights in the house are still on, crowds are still forming, and like everyone sees him and starts cheering. Tom Hanks comes in, lights are off. Like he's coming in last second before Bono comes on, doesn't want to make a fuss, doesn't want to create too much chaos. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:05:05 My big knock will always be how we not figure it out stadium traffic at the end of games is beyond me. I mean, humans, we've done the most amazing things in the world, but the emptying of a stadium and people getting in cars, they just haven't figured out yet.
Starting point is 00:05:21 So that's the worst part to me. Like when you lose, it's all nice, right? People wave you out. Oh, yeah, go in front of me. Go ahead. Let's go. Everyone can get out of here.
Starting point is 00:05:29 It's all teamwork. After a loss, everyone's giving each other the finger. No one's letting anyone out of the parking lot. So yeah, the game ended. I don't even know. Pretty quick game, right? Because it was a no hitter, but didn't end until, I don't know, 1130.
Starting point is 00:05:42 Didn't get home until 1.30, too. And then woke up at 7, got on the airplane. Now I'm in Kentucky with Chad. Guy, I was like asleep at 2 and got up at 5. Jeez. All right. We're ready to go back. Yeah, so this is our lives, people listen on AMP.
Starting point is 00:06:02 Yeah. It was a crazy fun 24 hours. Now we're in Lexington, but we have more important things to do than talk about Lexington, then talk about Bonner, then talk about the fans. We do. We got to give people our FAPS 5. We got to give people a big ball's bed of the week. We're going to get some sharp calls in a second.
Starting point is 00:06:23 First things first reminder, foxhole, we said bangles minus seven. All the lines that we liked on when we recorded on Tuesday are now moving. moving in the direction we said they would. We liked Bengals at seven. It's at seven and a half. Simon says it was Washington three and a half. Washington in the last 24 hours has moved to three. We liked exact decision bears plus five.
Starting point is 00:06:46 This morning, bears moved to four and a half. So, you know, more reason why people got to listen up and make the moves when they hear the podcast, because lines are moving. Before we get to the rest of our picks, Simon, what do we say about sharp calls? Hello, who's there, I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, and I think Chad just nailed it right there talking about the line movement. That's what a couple of the calls I got were about this week.
Starting point is 00:07:21 The big one, I knew going into it, the first of all over it, was Washington. I think everyone's just like us, Chad. They're looking at a Washington team that they just have a different mojo going right now against a Vikings team that we all think's a little inflated, like six and one. one, that's crazy. It's just crazy they've been playing that well. And they've had a couple spots where they've been due for a letdown. They keep getting out of it.
Starting point is 00:07:43 And again, I haven't looked at the luck rankings. I just see them being high up there in the luck rankings this week. So no surprise, decent amount of calls. The other side, the pros are on that me and Chad weren't on. And I think I'm going to stay put. I can't get talked off my position. The Jets. Heard a really smart group came in heavy on the Jets.
Starting point is 00:08:03 Sure enough, wake up this. morning after the Phillies game, open up the action app. And what do I see? 11.30, it's down to 11.5. So clearly someone came in, hit it. It bounced back up, I think, got a couple books to 12, but I might be overlooking this Jets team, but I just, I just can't do it. Again, I get it. Divisional Home Dog, I should be all over this Jets team. I still think the bills are the right side. So if you do want to back with the pros are back in, I get it. Like the Jets are a smart spot. I get. why a really smart group is taking a position here.
Starting point is 00:08:38 But to me, I would not make this one of my bigger bets. So interesting when I hear a group is taking a large position on a game that's like, again, I like the bills, but there was nothing I'm putting, I'm not putting five figures, I'm not putting six figures, anything crazy on it. And the last one was the Bears. Me, Chad, we nailed it on our love for it, five and a half as well at a lot of books.
Starting point is 00:08:59 We talked about now down to four and a half. It was a no-brainer play. Like Miami, everyone sees what we're seeing, right? Like, they'll barely beat Pittsburgh by six, right? You can write that off the two of getting right. But Detroit had them. Detroit really did have them. They let them into that game.
Starting point is 00:09:15 They did sport in that second half. The Bears' offense consistently moves the ball. So I know we're going to talk about that one this week. Feels good knowing the pros are on it with us. So, yeah, definitely a little scary with that bill is one, but still feeling really good about Washington. So happy we gave it out three and a half. Because we both kind of knew that number was going to move.
Starting point is 00:09:33 the Bears one I did not see going down. I thought that was going to go up to six. Love, love pros came in and backed us on that one. So hopefully in contests we still get five and a half, but I'd still think it a four and a half. We both thought about it. We think it should be three, three and a half. So still think you're getting a good number there.
Starting point is 00:09:49 Well, those were the first two games that we love the most, right? That was our sign and says. That was our exact decision. Depending on what we can get in the contest, I'm still going to like those games. The other game, so let's go through the rest of the games that we liked. Detroit plus three and a half. I still like it, but DeAndre Swift is not going to play.
Starting point is 00:10:19 Yeah. I listened to Raybon and Stuckey on the Action Network podcast this morning. And Raybon made a great case for the Lions. Everything about their offense is great at home. they're scoring more points at home as an average than the Packers have scored in any single game all year. The Packers rush defense is not very good. The Packers defense is not very good. Certainly not as good as any defense that the Lions have faced at home this year.
Starting point is 00:10:47 All these great reasons to bet the Lions. But my confidence in the Lions is so shaken from what it was earlier in the year. It's hard for me to commit, even though what's interesting is a lot of the Lions we talked about. some have moved, but the Lions hasn't moved at all. Still exactly at three and a half. Yeah, I can tell you that I know a couple of professionals that took a position on the Green Bay. So I do like the Lions too with Chad. I do think the issue here is what I've been saying for weeks now is they just seem to not finish out these games.
Starting point is 00:11:24 And again, they haven't, they don't cover. Like they were a covering machine and now the books have caught up to it, right? We've had a multiple weeks here. They just simply have not covered. So scared. That's what I'll say about this when I'm scared. Simon's being a coward, but it's true. I want to take Detroit here because what Chad just talked about,
Starting point is 00:11:42 like to me, Detroit can put up points. I have no faith in Green Bay putting up points, especially with all the injuries they've had to the wide receiver position. So three and a half, maybe I'm being sucked in on it. But the only reason me and chat won't have this in the contest is because the guys I listen to and trust that I know are smart players. they've taken a position on Green Bay and the public has just pounded
Starting point is 00:12:05 this Detroit 9 and the number is just not moving. So again, there's other dogs I like better this week so we might stay away from it, but I can't, as you sit here on Thursday, I can't honestly say that I would have this in our contest. I agree. There's something, the way we choose our games, it's always about a confidence ranking
Starting point is 00:12:27 and as much as anything. at the end of the day, am I going to have, are the Lions at 3 and a half going to be one of the games knowing what we know now we're most confident about? I can't say that for sure. We'll see what happens Sunday. Things change a lot. Reminder.
Starting point is 00:12:43 Follow us in the Action Network app, Phase 5. We will lock in our picks Sunday at noon. That's when we see where we land on these final games because a lot changes between numbers moving, what the contest lines lock at, injury. so, you know, this is where we're thinking about today. So when we get to Sunday, we can make some informed decisions. Let's talk about the Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:13:13 Where are you landing right now on this game? I'm still in the Colts, but I still have no real confidence in taking them. I just, I like the match up for the Colts and since they match up well against the strengths of New England. And that's a big number for a game that I assume we'll be close. But again, we're taking this kid Sam in his second start as a QB against Telichick. Like the guy kills young quarterbacks. And he just, again, he schemes it up where these kids just by the third or fourth quarter,
Starting point is 00:13:46 they're just done mentally. They're shot by him. What he does, the fake blitz, the movement, the switching from zone to man. He does a lot of trickeration to really getting guys head. So again, another game where I like the number, it's just scary where it feels like we're walking right into a trap here. But again, another game, I know the pros are on the Colts here with us. So it's giving me confidence in that sense. But we joked about it.
Starting point is 00:14:12 I knew it was going to come down on one of these games on Sunday. It was going to be this or the Bears. Now I really like the Bears, right? Like I'm starting to feel more confident with the Bears where this Colts won, it's kind of the same as Tuesday. It's like I feel like me and you are just doing the smart professional play. here. We're deep in our soul. We're like, God, we hate going against Belichick in the spot. When we look deep in our souls right now,
Starting point is 00:14:34 we know we don't want to bet on Sam Ellinger in the Colts. If we're a little bit three games out of a million dollars. That's what's making it so hard. That's what's making it harder, right? And I'm worried that all of a sudden we've been playing loose. We've won eight straight weeks. Like, now we're going to tighten up. Yeah, that's okay, though.
Starting point is 00:14:53 I'm a little worried about it. All right. The Falcons plus three right now. And that number hasn't really moved. They're hosting the Chargers who are off a buy. You know, like my senses that we like the Falcons, just because we don't have any faith in the Chargers coaching staff and the Chargers aren't that healthy.
Starting point is 00:15:24 but the Falcon's secondary can't cover anybody right now. That's true, but apparently they're getting guys back this week, and that's why I was going to see if you want to make this our big balls, better the week. Because I feel like what you just said is the truth, right? The public's a little scared of this one. They're kind of looking at Atlanta and looking at that secondary. I have a lot of questions about when you have Herbert coming in,
Starting point is 00:15:48 who was one of the top five guys in passing yards this year just a couple weeks ago, And I get it. I get why people would be scared taking this one because the Chargers look like world beaters. But I still think if you can run the ball in the Chargers and you can ball control them, that's where you beat them. Like we've seen it time and time again, this Chargers team when they lost the Seahawks. It wasn't Gino Smith doing incredible things, right? It was the fact that they ball controlled. And once Herbert, you know, gets one or two, three and outs, he gets flustered.
Starting point is 00:16:18 And that's the biggest issue right now with a lot of people on him is he's streaky, right? he'll have two or three drives. He'll have incredible throws and they'll get down the field. And sure, they'll might be, get seven out of it. But then he'll go quarters of doing nothing, right? Three and out, three and out. And it's, again, I don't trust the O.C.
Starting point is 00:16:36 For the Chargers, I don't like the position they've been putting Herbert in. Because to me, the kid has all talent in the world and they're just not winning, right? You see it time and time again this year. They simply aren't winning. And they have a lot of injuries as well. So I get where people are coming from.
Starting point is 00:16:50 but to me you might be able to wait and maybe get the three and a half but I would still grab the three because I do think pros are going to come in on this Atlanta game. It just, this feels like a pros versus Joe's game this week just like the Browns did last week
Starting point is 00:17:04 with all the public was all over sensing all the pros were on the Browns. It's like this can be like this week with Atlanta. Atlanta at home in this position. I'll take that three, three and a half if I can get it. I don't think this is our big balls better the week. Give me a bigger one, then.
Starting point is 00:17:22 Dude. Tennessee. Tennessee? Yeah. You would really have that in the contest, though? Not in the contest, but like... So you need bigger balls than that, though. If you want to make it our big balls.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Well, that's interesting. Because it's probably going to be 12.5. I think it's going to be 12.5 or 13 and a half in our contest. We've never had a rule where we said, that's true. It's good balls better the week. Or like an executive. decision or assignment says it has to be in the contest.
Starting point is 00:17:53 Yeah, it's all based on the number. I just think we'll get a good number on this for the Tennessee in the contest, just because it's been 12 and a half for 13 all week. Now it's down to 12. Yeah, it's, yeah, well, I see 11.5 and I see 12 and a half. So, yeah, I mean, you know, I love it. So if you want to make it, I'm in on it. Like, I've already bet it.
Starting point is 00:18:13 Brable is a big dog to me. It's just an auto play. It's been good to me, so. Bandw is plus 12.5 right now. That's a good number. Yeah. Dude, I'm calling it right now. Big Balls Bed of the Week.
Starting point is 00:18:28 I can't be as loud as I normally would because I'm in a hotel and I don't want to scare the person in the room next to me. But Titans, plus 12 and a half, is our Big Balls Bed of the Week. I don't know. It's very courteous of you in a place you're never going to be ever again after one day. I'm like the opposite way. I raise hell in a place I know I'll never be back. So again, people be on the lookout for next two nights in Lexington. Listen, you and I live different lives.
Starting point is 00:18:54 I don't want to walk out of the room and, like, randomly have the person next to me walk out at the same time. And they're like, were you just yelling big balls bed of the week at the top of your lungs? I don't know that. I would say yes. Again, you're never going to see this person ever again. That's true. That's how I live almost all of my life. Right.
Starting point is 00:19:11 Guess what? Guess what? Big balls, bed of the week. All right. Well, you're right. I don't know that we'll do Tennessee in the contest at 12 and a half. It depends on where the line is. Look, if we want to make a case right now,
Starting point is 00:19:24 no one's going to take Tennessee 12 and a half. That'll certainly get us a game up if we do it. I can see the pros being on it. But again, the pros are like the dogs this week. Like I know a bunch of pros are on Houston tonight. You couldn't pay me to bet Houston tonight. I know a bunch of pros in the Jets, and I keep arguing with them.
Starting point is 00:19:42 The Jets identity kind of feels like it's gone now, Bryce Hall of being now. But they don't care. They still believe in. that defense. So three big dogs this week, I could tell you all pros run all three. Last week, all pros run all three big favorites. So it's flipped this week to last week. What do we think about the Falcons though? So right now I'm putting Falcons and Titans sort of on a side list. I have Washington and Chicago on a main list. I have Detroit on a side list.
Starting point is 00:20:10 I would put the Colts on there now. I'm fine with that. I would definitely get Atlanta on there. That's going to be one of my. All right. That you're going to feel strongest about about Atlanta? I feel like by the time the contest comes around, I will, especially if it's three and a half. Like, I kind of feel like I have to do it. Because, again, the Chargers could win. I could just see it being a close game because they just will go for it on fourth and 20, fourth in their own 20 and make no sense.
Starting point is 00:20:35 And then they'll be a close game. So to me, Atlanta has just played well at home. I got to take those points. All right. So right now, Washington, three and a half, bears five, Falcons three, Colts, five. Those are four that we like a lot. What about Bengals seven and a half? It's scare you?
Starting point is 00:20:53 I don't love the hook. I feel like we're paying interest we don't need to pay. There might be other games on the board. See, I would pay because I think that's what they're trying to do to you. They're trying to suck you in to take Carolina up plus seven and a half after the last week. Just because they know the public is mad at the Bengals, right? People were loaded up on that Monday night game and they got embarrassed. No way.
Starting point is 00:21:16 Is any of those people taking? That's how the public is, though, right? We joke all the time about that. They are bitter, and they're bitter towards this Bengal team from last week, and they're like, why would I take them to seven and a half where I can take Carolina, who looks way better with this QV?
Starting point is 00:21:30 Again, Bengals just lost their top corner as well, so that's a big deal for DJ more. But I just think a bad spot for Carolina playing back-to-back road games to such a crushing defeat last week. Again, if they keep it close, I will completely change my grade on PJ Walker. I just think you're kind of buying high on him coming off back-to-back
Starting point is 00:21:52 really good starts for him against defenses are now where near as good as this Bangal's defense is. Like this Bengals defense, I promise you, they are much better than what they showed against that Browns team. Just we've seen the Browns match up well against. We know divisional games are weird like that, right? Browns are now 4-0 against Joe Burroughs since he's been the quarterback there. That makes zero sense.
Starting point is 00:22:12 For the last two years, Cincinnati has been much better than their browns. rounds. It's just divisional games are weird like that. Team just match up well against certain playing styles. It's a scary one. Start the NFL week off right with a no sweat, same game parlay every Thursday from Fandual America's number one sports book. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandual or already have an account. Every Thursday night, you'll get free bets back if you were NFL.
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Starting point is 00:24:28 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Starting point is 00:24:51 Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's one that worries me the most that you and I both love. Seattle Seahawks plus two against Arizona. And I cannot find a way to walk away. from this game because everything about it says Seattle is a better team, catching points with a better coach. The only reason not to do it is because we feel like we're at peak Seattle the way we did, we felt like we were at peak Atlanta. But they're just a better team. Yeah, I was hoping to get more
Starting point is 00:25:32 calls about them this week and find out what more guys are doing. It seems like most pros are staying away or just taking Seattle. Like they're not actually back in the Cardinals here, which even more, I know it sounds stupid, even more of being like, well, crap,
Starting point is 00:25:45 are we all stepping in it then? Because we're all behind the Seattle hype, like Chad's just talking about here. But the reason I feel comfortable taking them is what I've talked about last week. I agree with Chad. I think the CX are playing better right now and their defense has really been playing better these last couple weeks.
Starting point is 00:26:01 The same defense only gave up nine points of this Cardinals team, not even like two, three weeks ago. So, yeah, Chad could be right. We could be walking right into it, but two and a half, two, that's a good number for a Seahawks team that's just good right now. Again, the lead in their division for a reason, like they've been winning these close games. So it could be right, but there's so much dysfunction right now with the Cardinals, I just, I can't do it.
Starting point is 00:26:27 Like if I'm going to be bad in this one, I'm going to do what the other guys I've talked to is doing. Like I'm going to take Seahawks. I'll throw them in a couple of teasers as well, cross eight and a half, across the seven and a half. but I just can't back the Cardinals here, even though I feels like Chad's right, that we might be waiting a week, one week too long on keep back on the Seahawks team, but I like how they're clicking.
Starting point is 00:26:49 The defense is really playing well. And again, they just, for the last month of October, they just had the rookie of the year at a cornerback and they had the rookie year of running back. So we clearly see their draft is paying big dividends, and they're both healthy. So that, to me, that's the big reason here with the Seahawks. I just like that team right now.
Starting point is 00:27:06 I think we just talked ourselves into Seattle to being like very strongly on our list. Yeah. Yeah. Especially if it's at two and a half or two. Seattle, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta. I would say Detroit, Tennessee, Indy, Cincinnati are potentials for last one in or two potentials to be last ones in to knock somebody out depending on numbers. Yeah. Yeah, and like, again, we didn't touch on it. I know Chad said you like the Buccaneers.
Starting point is 00:27:43 I talked to too many smart groups. They're playing the Rams side. I'll stay away. Like, again, there's only even a handful of games I haven't touched this year. I'll still probably get on the under in that game, but I just, I got no real read on picking either side. It just both teams, this is like their season, it feels like, right? The Bucks need this win, so are the Rams just as bad. Like, they need this to stay afloat and maybe have a chance in this division.
Starting point is 00:28:06 very telling that neither of these teams made a move of the trade deadline. The Buccaneers didn't make a single move, and neither of the Rams, which was very telling of what the GM's view of. What we thought were going to be Super Bowl contenders this year, I think the teams were starting to come to realization it might be a loss year for both teams. So, you know, we have Evan Abrams, our researcher extraordinaire. So I asked him to look something up for me. Greatest of all-time quarterbacks, the week. After divorcing a supermodel against the spread, 42 and 7, all time. Is there a, I was going to, is there a bum-bump?
Starting point is 00:28:47 It was a joke. It was a joke. How did you not get that? Because I don't know what was funny. Dude, I made a funny joke about a man's getting divorced. You're dancing on Tom Brady's grave. Chad, for shame. Do you not have any shame? You? No, I'm kidding. you you decide to find something precious that is too precious to joke about i i am shocked i'm a
Starting point is 00:29:15 hopeless romantic i'm a hopeless romantic sorry chad as someone that has never been married nobody loves love more than me don't bring your that's not true you just you're just shitting all over don't brady no it is divorce i made a funny betting joke humor is so good. I put a guy who DM me on Twitter and then I had a 15 minute phone call on my podcast and look where we are now. That's true. 2000, 2008, 2022, when it comes to the economy, these are some scary years. Dot com crash, hasn't crashed and the roller coaster we're going through right now. One thing is certain it's a dangerous time to not know your numbers, but over 31,000 businesses have the confidence
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Starting point is 00:30:39 Head to netSuite.com slash favorites right now. NetSuite.com slash favorites. NetSuite.com slash favorites. Here's what we are, by the way. Foxhole, we said it early in the week. Bengals minus seven. Simon says Washington plus three and a half. Both of those numbers.
Starting point is 00:30:56 Exact decision bears plus five. That number is moved. What we're saying people is, if we say something, bet it right away. Titans plus 12 and a half. That is our big balls, bed of the week. These are the teams that we're leaning into right now on our list that we will evaluate, that are the lead positions to be in our Fave 5 for the contest to win a million dollars. Washington 3 and a half, Bears 5, Falcons 3, Seattle 2, having a lot of deep thoughts about Detroit plus 3 and 1 half,
Starting point is 00:31:27 Colts plus 5 and 1 half, maybe Tennessee plus 12.5. Yeah. dog likes my dog Who do we want to put in our money line Round Robin Parley? Bruttle week. Start with the Seahawks, no brainer. Give me a little Atlanta.
Starting point is 00:31:53 Give me a little bit of Washington. Should we do it? Nah, I can't do it. What are you going to say, No, no. I want to say it, but I feel like that would be such a waste. What about Detroit?
Starting point is 00:32:08 that's what I was thinking. Like, should we do it, but they haven't? Yeah, all right. You got to. I feel like if Green Bay is going to win, this has to be a game they win. Like, I just see them losing by three, but that's fair. I'll put Detroit in there because we kind of need it. And also, why don't we do in Chicago?
Starting point is 00:32:25 That's the final piece, yeah. Here's a great stat that Brandon Anderson had. He does his story every week where he sort of talks about the early bets that he's making and the early liens and stuff. and he had an amazing stat about teams this year that have been underdogs between three and ten points this year, 41, 21 against the spread covering 66% of the time. Those teams are 25, 36 and 1 straight up, 26% ROI on the money line. So Seattle doesn't fall into that, but Washington does.
Starting point is 00:33:05 Atlanta does, the Bears do, and Detroit does. Yeah, that's crazy, though. The year the dog and the unders. Yeah, right? So I like this. So for those listening on AMP, because I know sometimes it's hard to follow along, the money line round robin underdog parlay.
Starting point is 00:33:22 Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, Chicago. That's it. Perfect. What I miss. Scootrillette, something I'm dominating you in. Oh, my God. I totally forgot about Scoot Chulette. When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
Starting point is 00:33:39 Let's play Scooch Roulette. I mean, I got it on purpose. You're right. You're dominating it right now. I started off so hot, crushing it. I was feeling my own. I was a confident, confident man. I told you, Chad, I got to, you're getting a little too cocky.
Starting point is 00:33:57 So are you sure? And you were like, I'm feeling pretty good. Yeah, I got that. Now we sit, we're eight weeks in. Simon, six and two, Chad, three and five. Six and two and three and five. I know. I read it down, Jack, because it's that funny to read every time.
Starting point is 00:34:13 I got it. Yeah. I don't know. I hate you, and I got it. I don't do here because, like, me and Chad talked about, our favorite games, the lines have moved so much. So it's tough, or it's like, I want to take Washington with the three and a half's gone.
Starting point is 00:34:26 I kind of want to take the Bears, but I hate doing the cross stream. So I'll go with the team. We haven't really picked for anything that, You know, I'm all in on them this year. Somebody's all right with them in Scooch. Seahawks plus two. Give it to me. All right.
Starting point is 00:34:41 You're taking Seattle plus two. This is tough. This is tough. I need a win. I need to win. And I got to go into it with a game I feel confident about. I feel like it's the Bears. So you can break your heart twice.
Starting point is 00:34:58 Yeah. I'm all in on this team right now. The Bears, I like their moves. I like shedding a bad defense, get rid of players. You're not going to pay. Start getting some assets. Give Justin Fields some weapons, even though Chase Claypool probably will make that big of a difference this weekend. It's a fade of Miami.
Starting point is 00:35:16 Give me the Bears. Bear down. Let's thrill the nation with the T-Formation. Love it. All right. We did it, man. We didn't know how it was going to go. Getting into Lexington.
Starting point is 00:35:27 Matt Mitchell, I don't even know where in the hotel he is, wherever you could find the internet machine to work. for Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Reminder, we're live tomorrow like Keenland in Lexington, Kentucky, 1 p.m. Eastern Radio Row. Come join us. Me, Simon, Matt Mitchell, we'll be there together. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. You can rate, review, subscribe, Spotify, Apple, five stars.
Starting point is 00:35:55 Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:36:21 This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts.

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