The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets Super Bowl LVII

Episode Date: February 9, 2023

It all comes down to this. One last podcast episode covering the final game of the NFL season, as the Philadelphia Eagles square off against the Kansas City Chiefs. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome on their colleague Brandon Anderson, who shares his thoughts on the big game, along with a number of plus-money bets he'll be making as the Super Bowl approaches. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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1-8778. Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York, 1,800-522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's Thursday before Super Bowl 57. We are so freaking close, folks, to finally

kicking this game off to finally seeing how our bets are going to play out a season's worth of conversation coming to a close. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Chad, this is always so bittersweet, three days away from the best game of the year, but the last game of the year. So this is like the most fun week. I mean, it's just a week of never any hype, especially if you're a fan of said team in Super Bowl, it doesn't get much better. But this is like the worst part too. Like I know I know I'm not going to be able to sleep. I know guys too are betting a lot of money on it won't be able to sleep. It's just a long three days until kickoff. So we're getting there. Hopefully this helps people

get through the day our picks. But yeah, Super Bowl, Super Bowl week. It's just so much info, so many things coming at people. It's tough when it's over, but this week just flies by usually because it's just so much going on. I got to remind people, if you are listening to us in the volume feed and you are not following the favorites in Apple Podcasts, if you are not doing what you need to do to follow us on Spotify, now is the time, folks. Now is the time. Follow the favorites feed in Apple Podcasts in Spotify. Reminder, follow the favorites feed so you can be notified when the favorites is going live, when a new podcast is loaded. Joining us on the show for our Thursday Best Betts podcast, it's appropriate. It's Brandon Anderson,

who's a brilliant analyst at the Action Network, who has been, doing multiple podcasts all season long, the Best Betts podcast that normally comes out on Fridays. It's out today, the Super Bowl Best Betts podcast. He also does a great podcast late Sunday into Monday about wrapping up the weekend and the early bets he'll make. He'll do a column every week, looking at the games that he will immediately bet. It's a brilliant column. It helps inform me as I do this podcast and informs a lot of people as they're making decisions. Brandon Anderson, saving the best for last, buddy. Oh, what's up, guys? Super Bowl a week is one of my favorites

because as a Vikings fan, you just get to sit back and have no rooting interest ever. I just get to watch the game. My team's never going to be in this thing. So just watch the game, make a little money, enjoy some football. And really, by the time the Super Bowl kicks off, like we're all stressed about our bets and everything, but the work is done.

We just get to watch the game. Like there's no more analyzing and trash. and what are we learning here for the next game? This is it. We just get to enjoy some nachos and some good food and enjoy the game. So, man, we're almost there. Well, you know what's interesting the way you say that. The Lions came out Sunday of the NFC title game,

which is now 10, 11 days ago, or the NFC and AFC title games. And the Eagles were immediately one and a half point dogs. We've talked about this in the podcast. I bet the Eagles are plus one and a half. Then all of a sudden, the cheese were playing. plus two and a half within 15 minutes. So I bet the chiefs plus two and a half. Simon and I have talked about it.

He likes the over. I'm on the under. I bet the under. I didn't get a good number. I got it at 49.5. I thought it was going to come down to be honest. It was at 50. It came down in 49 and a half.

But that's kind of been it. Like the lines haven't been moving crazy amounts. Simon and I talked about on the podcasts last week that he really liked the Eagles in the moment. We were waiting to get more info about Jalen Hertz. but there hasn't been a lot of reason to go heavy on one side or the other. So like every day I'm looking because like that work is kind of done. So now we're even now the work is kind of done. I've kind of been tinkering with some props to bet every once in a while.

You know, we did the podcast with Raybonne and Kerner, listen to what Raybon and Stuckey talked about on their podcast. But like there's not a ton of work to be doing right now. Simon, I want to start with you. like especially you got one game for two weeks. You're used to 16 games over seven days. Yeah. I mean,

this game was done though three weeks ago. That's what I mean. That's how much free time you have in the playoffs compared the regular season. So I had this matchup done. I had the 49ers matchup done. I had the Bengals versus Eagles, all the different scenarios. Once I knew with the four final where kind of started that.

And then last week, I do a little bit of work for this, right? You'll update, you'll tinker. you're always kind of updating tinker in your model, especially when there's major injuries, where there could be an injury to Mahomes, could be an injury to Hertz. Obviously, that's a big deal to anyone that's doing a model.

But to me, it's kind of futures. Like, that's what this past week, I mean, a lot of pro just hearing what they like for futures for next year, what the rumors are, where do you think guys are going, where the value would be? I mean, yeah, this office isn't going to be mental. It really is, like, go with my British friend saying, it is going to be wild, though,

just because the Rogers to the Jets thing feels pretty real. Like, the old saying, with there's smoke, there's fire. And that's a big deal. That's a huge upgrade for a team that just needs a game manager. So I can tell you a lot of pros, like the early market on the Jets and things like that. So that's what I mean. This offseason, that's what a lot of guys are talking about.

That last week. Yeah, we talked Super Bowl, me and a bunch of guys, right? But everyone's thinking next year already because this kind of is just a party. If you're a pro, yeah, there's going to be value. Guys will always find value. But I think any of room can agree. this is a pretty damn smart line and a pretty damn smart game where it's just you got two teams both are the one seeds we're all reaching for something to clinch onto that's negative about either

team because it's just like such well coached teams just really good teams all season no one can really argue against either than being the one seats all year so it's one of those where I get what you're saying or you're like is there really that much value and I would say there is because it's like I have a preference on a side in the total. The question is, is my model going to keep being right? Like, we talked last week. I didn't know what the hell to do last week. I was just like the human enemy wanted to take the 49ers and take the Bengals.

I told you, I'm just going to take the models projection. And the models had the Eagles winning, had the Chiefs winning, covering the spread. So it's the same thing this week. I think the Eagles on paper and everything I've talked about, I just think they're the better team. I have them a minus three. How am I going to argue against anyone taking my homes as a dog? It's like I get exactly where they're coming from. That's what's so fun about the Super Bowl is everyone's got the same chance right now.

As much as we want to say we have an edge and everything like that, it's still just one random-ass game at the end of the year when everyone's all banged up. And that's the best part of the Super Bowl. It's really just it's the pinnacle of it. That's why we all love football. It's one game a week, decide so much of every season. It all comes down to just not a seven-game series like in these other sports. It's a one-game winner-take-all and you become a legend for life.

It just does not get much better, Chad. A legend for life. Brandon Anderson. Will you be a legend for life? What you say right now about this game? Man, I don't appreciate the future tense on that. That implies that I am not already a legend for life, Chad. My favorite part of these two weeks is, you know, books put up hundreds, thousands of props for this game.

and look, we already know, I agree with Simon. We already know before the line came out, you knew. You knew if you liked the Eagles and the Chiefs, you knew if you're thinking over-under, you've done your work on this game. But now we got props on, will there be a scourgami, and will there be an octopus in the game? We're like, what are these things at home? And we got over and under's bought every player in alternate props

for like the guys down at the end of the roster and will they make a catch, will they play a snap? We got just so many extra props because this is the Super Bowl. And what I like, and you're not going to go big and win huge money on these. But of course, the line is sharp, the actual game. Of course, the over under, the total is going to be sharp. Everyone in the world is playing those things. But you know what?

They're not necessarily playing. Will there be an octopus? Will there be some of these weird random long shots? And the further down the board you get, like that's where I live. That's where I kind of make my living. You guys know at Action Network is with these weird long shot bets and the niche bets that you got to dig down the app. When you log into FanDule and you're like, okay, keep scrolling, keep scrolling. What's down here?

So in Super Bowl Week, you got more of those than ever. So I love when I see something new and I'm like, oh, I have no idea if there will be a touchback on the opening kickoff. But that looks like one that there could be an adjohn. Let me do the work on it. And let me research a thing that I haven't normally looked at and see if there's something there. And the fact of the matter is when there are hundreds of props up, you're going to find an edge somewhere. Before you get to those, because I want us to get to the best bets, I thought your research leading into the last couple of weeks about the Eagles edge on the defensive line against the Chief's offensive line and the Eagles edge on the offensive line against the Chief's defense overall was really smart. Simon and I

I think it makes you think about the Eagles as the side but excuse me Simon and I have been going back and forth on this over under every bit of research you said about the Eagles pass rush the sack rate the rush rate being number one in the league she's being mediocre

makes me feel like this should be an under game are you on the over or are you on the under? I lean under I don't have a strong play on the top total, but I'm with you. I think this game is won in the trenches. And if I'm on Philadelphia, then that has to be why, because they're going to win on both sides of the ball right there on the line.

I think that's one of the more overlooked parts of the game. Everyone knows about on Patrick Mahomes. He's Patrick Mahomes. That's not a tough analysis. And you can't really fault an analysis either. But I think coaching an offensive and defensive and defensive line play is where you can really get an edge that's overlooked a little bit. And I think if you like the Eagles, part of your analysis, at least a little bit of it, has to be, I think this Eagles pass rush can get to Mahomes a little bit.

I think Philadelphia can slow down the chiefs from scoring. So for me, I think if I like the Eagles, which I do, then you have to go Eagles and under, or if it leans over, then I'm a little bit afraid for my Eagles position because I don't necessarily want Jalen Hertz matching Pat Mahomes score for score. and suddenly we got an over, I think if we go over, I start to get a little more worried from my Eagles position, and it feels more like Under Eagles or Over Chiefs. So since I like the Eagles, I like the under. All the line play stuff is just so overwhelmingly in favor of the Eagles, that that for me, I know Simon you said,

I think the first favorites here right after this matchup was set. We were on lockstep. The game is in the trenches. This is the best, deepest offensive line in the league for the Eagles. Eagles, and they're going to be able to handle Chris Jones and be able to gash in the run game once they get going. And then the Eagles defensive line, 11.5% sack rate on pass plays. That is the best number the entire century in the NFL.

The Eagles are further ahead of second place in sack rate than second places from 29th. They basically have lapped the entire NFL and the Chiefs only ranked 16th in pass protection. They only had two games all year against a top eight pressure teams. So there's been a lot of talk this week about, well, the Eagles are untested. Well, I think that that's fair. I think those points are all very fair. But I think the Chiefs maybe are a little more untested than we've given credit for as well. That O-line has struggled when they had a few tests here.

Obviously, Mahomes has the ankle thing that is going to probably flare up the further the game goes. And then the Chiefs, they only face four top 13 offenses by BVA all season. The Eagles are certainly not. They're certainly near the top of the list there. I think that you look at the run game, the Eagles chewing up long drives, that like 12 play 78 yard, 8 minute drive, that leans under as well for me.

So I think if you look at a total, I look under, but that's probably not my top play on the game. Simon, just respond. Let's get the conversation one last time about the total out of the way, and then I want best bets from each of you, and I will give mine.

Yeah, I'll just give brand of credit. it like we talked all the time. I give people exactly what I do. There's no secret to my method to my menace. I literally start with the offense line, defense line, and then I build my model off from there. And obviously, quarterbacks thrown in there.

He was all over this summer. He had the Eagles as his number one offensive line. I think he had Chiefs two or three, which was literally the same thing at the end of the year. So I had the offensive line, and I believe them both quarterbacks, made them the one seat because there's other things

that trickle out from that, but obviously schedule plays into it. So it's one of those thing coming in this year, the Chiefs actually, kind of didn't do as well as I thought they're going to do all season with that O line. So the pressure rate could be put on the homes a little bit because he holds onto the ball too much maybe as well. But look in this total, there's a bunch of reasons why I like the over.

But the biggest one is I think there's going to be a lot of short fields because of turnovers. I think the Eagles, with that front line, they will be able to get to them. They will be able to turn over. And vice versa, the Eagles, they're kind of team that, yes, they've been smart with the ball. I think they're going to take more risk in this kind of match. We've seen teams in the Super Bowl. they take more risk.

Especially when you're playing against guy like Mahomes, you can't really play it safe. So I just see a lot of short fields in this game, a lot of big plays with both sides of ballware. I know what people think. This Eagles defense is really good. So just looking at a couple of their big matchups, they played the Cowboys.

Everyone remembers that Saturday game, Christmas Eve. Their defense gave up 40 points. They lost 40 to 34. You could say that was a fluke touchdown at the end. Remember that really crazy play. So you could take that away, but still over 30 points in an indoor game. The next time, they play.

Green Bay. They won 40 to 33. So their defense gave up 33 points to Aaron Rogers. You're just seeing a little bit of a trend here that when they play a good quarterback, even week one, I mean, I remember Chadden, remember that. The Detroit indoors put up 35 points. I know there's a long time ago, but there's a thing where they're indoors. It's different than when they're outdoors at home.

And that's when the Eagles defense has been so dominant. So this was an outdoor game. I honestly would have been all over that under. I think that would have been skewed towards both teams being towards the under. We're going to talk to Andrew Reed's history in the playoffs and the outdoor game when his team was in it. He was 60% towards the under. But when he's indoors, it goes more towards the over, especially with Mahomes.

So that's my big thing here, Chad, is I just see both offenses being very risky and taking big swings. Where he goes offense, I do think they'll be smart. They'll try to run the ball. If Mahomes goes up at any point, if he goes up seven or 14 points, which historically in Super Bowls, you see big swings like that. Teams go on little runs and other teams bounce back, which that's another probably, can talk about during the prop show. That's just something that happens in the Super Bowl.

So I'm an under guy. I mean, we talk about time. I love taking under, especially when the value is there. I could easily flip if it hits 52 to the under. But right now I got a mile with 51.5. Still think there's value there. We're crossing a bunch of key numbers right now. So if you could still in some crazy book find a 50, I'd grab it because all the legal

books now are heading, heading towards 51 and at 50. 50.5. So it seems like when most people hear this, it'll be at 51 at that point. So it's tough for me to tell you get a shitty number because that is a key number. I'm hoping you grab that earlier and grab the over. But Chad's right. This is one of those where two quarters in I might be feeling like an idiot because both these defenses have been playing so well in the playoffs. All right, Brandon.

You mentioned that you're looking for edges deep, deep, deep into the books into all these different markets. Hard to find an edge on the total. Hard to find an edge on the side. where are you finding your edges? Let's start with your best one. Your very best one. You've got one bet to make. You've got to make it.

What are you making? Yeah, well, obviously, I like the Eagles here. I'm rocking my Carson Wentz, Jersey, North Dakota, born and Brad. We fell in love with the Eagles back in North Dakota when Carson came out. And what can I say? We draft Carson once, and the Eagles are off to two Super Bowls in five years. It's pretty easy cause and effect there. I'm on the Eagles on this one,

but I'm always looking, okay, how can I limit some of my outs by adding to the payout here? So here's how I'm going to play this. Give me the Eagles halftime plus full time. So I need to lead at the half. The tie will not do, but I'm going to lead at the half

and win the game on the money line. Give me that a plus 160. I've seen it as high as plus 18. out there. Eagles half time full time. Right now, Philadelphia has 16 wins this season. Do you guys know in how many of those 16 wins have the Eagles led at half time? 14. I would say I would, oh, 14 is correct. 14 is right. They were tied with Houston at the half. They trailed Indianapolis by one. Yeah. If you like the Eagles, what's the script? My script. My script is this.

You get out early, we know the Eagles have been so strong in the first half all year, second quarter especially. They pass to take the lead. They run to protect the lead. The best defense against Patrick Mahomes for all the pass rushing and all the number one DVA pasty, the best defense is just keep them on the sideline. Keep them over there, run the football, run the clock out. So if I don't take the Eagles, I don't want a comeback script.

I don't want the Eagles to be trailing and now I need Jalen. to out dual pat in the second half. No, thank you. Not saying it couldn't happen. That's not the script I want. Give me the early lead, set the tone, then control the clock, run the ball,

do what the Eagles have done, and really bored us in the second half of these games in the playoffs so far because they've been so dominant. So if I get that at a plus 160, that's a 38% implied. The money line right now is coming out around a 55% implied.

So I'm getting almost an extra 50% payout on the implied here just delete at halftime, but I think that's the script where the Eagles win anyway. So really, that's my main play on the game, not the Eagles side, but just gave me Eagles half time full time. And I think that's a sharper way to play just back in the Eagles here, straight up. Wow. Did not see Brandon going in with an Eagles leading and to win parlay at plus money as being his best bet. Feels ballsy. Feels ballsy. You know what it feels It feels like the kind of bet in which legends are born. Simon.

Yeah, brother. Tell me. Tell me where you're going with us. I love it. I mean, you know me. I talked about it all season. The Eagles' first half was just free money. We just bet it all year.

They're just one of those teams. They're just really well prepared. And what are they, 7 and 0 against playoff teams this year in the first half, technically? So one of those teams that they've played well against the best competition that they faced all year. No doubt in my mind. This game not only will be decided by coaching, but Andy Reid is an Eagles fan. All that can remember is Andrew Reed's two minute drills and those blunders. So you're giving me an Eagles team that our only hope is that the Chiefs blow it in that final two minutes of that first half.

It gives you even more confidence to taking Eagles first half. So I'm definitely with them. If you're going by Gainescript, the Eagles, Eagles are down by touchdown that first half. That could be a big problem for them because that means exactly what Brayne was talking about. It means they're going to have to be passing, which if they go three and out, that's more time for Mahomes to get the ball. So you better hope is an Eagles backer.

They got an elite here. So I like that a plus money, but you know what me. If I'm going to make that bet, I'll just load up on the first half and load up on full game. I don't know if I'd parlay it. But I love plus number. So not going to lie, I'm definitely going to throw a little on that bet. That's a nice bet. What is your, as we head into the weekend, best bet?

Is it still loading up on the Eagles? I would say my best bet would be, yeah, that's hard to say. Because right now, technically my most money I've had bet is the over. I wouldn't make that my best bet. That's just my biggest position as we sit here on Thursday. Yeah, I'll go best bet Eagles. I think that's just a great number. Whatever you can get it at, as long as you're under a field.

It feels the same thing as this 49ers game where it's most likely going to come down to three. We saw the Chiefs in that Bengals game. How much luck did the Chiefs need at the end of that game to get that field goal to cover that game? So it's one of those that feels the same thing. Mahomes all year has had a team that's lacked in talent, and he just keeps them in every game. You can go through their entire schedule. The man doesn't get blown out. He just keeps games close.

He's just such a fighter. So as we sit here on Thursday, child, say best bet, Eagles, full game. Football fans, Fanduel has the perfect way for everyone to get in on the Super Bowl 57 action with a no sweat same game parlay. That means everyone gets bonus bets back if your Super Bowl SGP doesn't hit. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandual or already have an account. Same game parlay is let you continue all your favorite bets for a chance at a bitter payday. So start building your own or just bet, a popular SGP already made for you in America's Number one sportsbook for Super Bowl 57. My Favorite SGB is the Chiefs, the under,

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I know this is crazy, and I hate doing it. I don't know how my best bet isn't the under. I cannot, I want to bet the over so bad, but I just feel like... Chad, you were sharp all season, riding along with the pros, and now you're going off reservation on the last... I know, and it seems so weird for me, because I know the pros. are on the over. I know it because I've seen the number move and I know it's pros who are moving the number. You have talked about it like nonstop. But other pros are with you. They really disagree

with it. So you got you got you got smart guys on your side. I just like it like it doesn't make any sense to me. Yeah. If you believe in the Eagles that you don't believe in the under and the this is such a matchup of are you an Andy Reed? Patrick Mahomes believer or are you a believer in the rest of the roster, right? And so if you're a believer in the rest of the roster, then you kind of have to believe that this is going to be an under because of what I said earlier about the past rush, about how we believe the Eagles can win the game, what they historically like to do. Because Simon, these are coaches who like to take risks when it comes to the red zone, as you just noted with

Andy Reid in the two minutes. That's what scares about the under brother. You got really high variant coaches here. You got high variance, right? But you also got there at the 40-yard line or 35, and it's fourth and eight, he'll go for it instead of kicking a 53-year-old field goal. That's true. Which is why I also like, you know, the prop that Krooner has talked about so much is will both teams kick a field goal over 33 yards? I say no. Yeah.

The Eagles break the model, too, of they've done so well in fourth down this year. They screw with my model just because of that where even the Chiefs where I'm downgraded them just because they don't run the ball in the red zone. I mean, they're one of these teams that they get down there. They have that much confidence in Mahomes. They're taking that high of a risk. So that's another thing that's good towards you're under. Not only the Eagles do to have regression on fourth down because they've been so above board this year,

Mahomes is due is due for some red zone turnovers. Like not the Josh Allen level, right, where he was doing one a game, but, you know, something. He's got to give us one. So I know we're talking a little bit of props here. That's another prop I love is the over in Mahomes interceptions. That's a fun prop to do. I think at most books it's minus 110, minus 111.

So if you're an Eagles backer, you better be betting that interception because we need one of those to beat this chief's team. Brandon, give me one more best bet. My other best bet for you is a plus 3,100, and it's a Super Bowl MVP. So you're not telling me the name? All right, all right. Give me Devante Smith, Super Bowl MVP, plus 3100. Wow.

We gave this one out on the Action Network podcast. You mentioned that I'm on there twice a week. Heading into the Giants game, gave it out at plus 7,500, heading into the Niners, plus 5,000. I still like it here. I like Devante Smith. All right, I'll just, I'll make the case here. So Devante Smith has been slowly kind of taking over,

at least coming equal to AJ Brown, the numbers down the stretch. Last seven games before the Niners, you have to kind of throw that game out. That wasn't really even a football game, right? Like we didn't have a quarterback on one side. Before that game, last seven Devante games, six and a half catches, 93 yards a game,

five touchdowns in those seven games. The Chiefs, our bottom five D. DVOA against wide receiver one. They also are very poor on the right side of the field. Defending the right side, they are 26th in DVOA, 6th on the left side. Devante lines up predominantly on the right, AJ Brown on the left. And so two of the last four Super Bowl MVPs are receivers. That's where the direction the NFL is heading.

And I think, too, if you like the chiefs, they're going to be a lot of talkable. Just play the quarterback. Just play the quarterback to win MVP. That's your pick. I think with the chiefs, great. I think Mahomes, the narrative there, so strong, I don't think Hertz wins MVP if it's the Eagles, because the more Eagle stats you're looking at,

like, if you get Hertz's numbers, I project him somewhere around 190 passing yards in a score, 40 rushing in a score. Does that feel like MVP numbers to you? Like, that doesn't pop to me. We don't see huge highlights. He has two passing touchdowns, the last four games. He has 275 passing yards in the play.

playoffs and why? Because the Eagles are winning as a team. That's the whole cap with the Eagles is it's not about Hertz MVP. It's about the team thing. I think the better Hertz's numbers are the last chance the Eagles win the game. And we know you need a winner to win the MVP. So give me Devante Smith MVP plus 3,100. That's been implied 3%. I make him closer to 8 or 9%. So that's triple the value here. I still got my tickets from earlier. I'm making it my best bet. That really is. That's how I play these. If I find a long shot I love,

you just got to play and go for the ride. Dude, I bet it while you were talking on Fandall, 31 to 1. Simon, you got anything else you want to say before we hit the road for Super Bowl 57 that we haven't said in four podcasts previewing the game. Yeah, I would say it is one game. A lot of randomness to it. But your friend Simon here is one nine street.

Don't listen to check. Chad, do not take the Chiefs. Take the Eagles. Your boy's been hot. I didn't say, by the way, no, no, no, no, no. I didn't say take the Chiefs. Chad likes the Chiefs. Chad likes the Chiefs. If Chad was going to Eagles, he'd be all over the Eagles, celebrating it with me. He's hesitant. I don't trust him. He's giving me Chief Vives. For crazy MVP bets, I'm trying to think if I have any good ones. I mean, when I just looked at it, I thought there's a couple of big values of, like, random guys, like, Darius Slay is 80 to 1. James Bradbury, who's just as good, who's the Eagles other corner,

he's sitting there at, I think, 150 to 1, where I think they should be closer in value where you never heard of his name, probably, Bradbury, because he's that good. He doesn't really give up that many yards. He gets a couple picks off Mahomes, and the Eagles win a low-scoring game. That would be really good value to me. So along the MVP sides, I'd go crazy upside bets, because I think Brandon nailed it where it's kind of a quarterback award.

Like, even if Hertz doesn't have that good of a game, I'd probably just give it to him because he's, he's young, pretty damn good looking, and he's the Eagles head coach. I mean, the Eagles quarterback. It's like, this is what the NFL wants. They want these big brand teams to have a Super Bowl MVP winning quarterback. So, yeah, on the other way, though, I think this is really going to be a shootout. So everyone knows my position, end of the game.

At this point, I guess I have to say Hertz looks good in practice because it's Thursday. I don't know. I'm just feeling confident about them all week leading up to it. I do think the chiefs are a really good team. I just think all year the NFC was better. People are just blinded by a quarterback play. So to them, the AFC has all the quarterbacks. The public just think that's the better side.

To me, the NFC had the better teams, the better constructed teams from ground up. That's why I just think the values there. So Eagles and over, Chad. It is one of those where people got to check in Sunday morning for convince me to get our updates. But it's looking like Chad's on the chiefs in the under. And I'm on the Eagles and the Over.

I would say I'm definitely. on the under. Yeah. But the Chiefs, I haven't, I haven't, yeah, committed to. I'm kind of... I know you, Chad.

I know you. I can tell. Dude, I have not, honest to God, what I'm really waiting for is I'm pretty evenly split at this point. Like, unless the game lands... Make the move.

You know what you got to do. Unless the game lands, you know, Eagles win by one or two or cheap by one. That's not happening. I'm kind of a wash on the side right now. I'm kind of waiting to see what happens on Sunday, if the line moves in the direction of the Eagles and in the Chiefs again, then I'll probably

end up betting the Eagles and being much heavier on the Eagles. At this point, I'm just waiting for the line to move because I think the public hasn't come in. But my sides are kind of washed based on what I did, you know, right when the lines came out. I realized after I did it, I kind of fucked myself, but whatever, I figured I would just wait for the lines to move and see my edge over the course of two weeks and have a good position to start. All right. Before we get out of here, Brandon, give us one more for the road. All right. I'm going to give you just two fun bets. Two fun ones.

I know you love the anytime touchdown. Simon, I think you're going to bet this one. Give me the Philadelphia defense to score a touchdown. Plus 750. Simon, you talked about high variance and the turnovers. We have 56 Super Bowl so far. 21 defense of touchdowns in the Super Bowl, 37.5% of touchdowns in the Super Bowl.

We had at least one touchdown by defense in almost a third of the games. And 21 of those touchdowns, 20 of them scored by the winning team. So whoever you like in the Super Bowl, you should bet their defense to score an anytime touchdown. And it's going up to last 30 Super Bowls, 15 defensive touchdowns. That is one every two Super Bowls. We're getting this at plus 750. Is it because we got great defenses in the Super Bowl? Is it the extra week to prep on tendencies?

Is it just, hey, this is it? Go for broke. Put it all out there. Whatever it is, I have to play that one. And then last one, the most fun bet you can make in the Super Bowl exclusively at Fandwell, our sponsor, both Kelsey's to score touchdown 200 to 1. Look, Travis Kelsey, we already know about Travis. I don't need to make the case for that. Travis is probably going to score his anytime touchdown is lowest of anything.

Jason Kelsey is the whole story, Kelsey Bowl. We're going to see mom wearing the split jersey down the middle. we're going to have the whole thing going. Here's why this actually has some legs. Jason Kelsey is the center. Obviously, centers don't score a lot of touchdowns. They're guys snapping the ball. Back on October 5th on the Pat McAfee show,

Nick Siriani is on. He talked about how they're bringing, they had to give Jason Kelsey his guy a keg to bribe him back. They're talking about how nimble he is. Nick Siriani, coach of the eagle, says, but you know what, maybe we need to report Jason Kelsey eligible, put him in the backfield, give him a couple of care, put them on a screen. That's out there. That's a thing that happened this year. Then,

January 11th, less than a month ago on the New Heights podcast, which by the way is the Kelsey Brothers. That's Travis and Jason's podcast. They're talking about that fun Chiefs Circle play they did where they ran around the Arctic Circle Snow Globe left with the reindeer personnel. They're talking about it and Travis is hyping up and Travis Kelsey says, quote, we're still waiting on that Jason Kelsey Watchetown, man. I'm just saying there's smoke out there. There's some smoke. It's 200 to 1. Five bucks gets you a thousand. This is not my best bet. This is not going broke here. But have a little fun. Get your money in. Get out with the big win. Listen, I'm thrilled that Brandon was our last guest of the entirety of the 2022,

2023 NFL season, Brandon Anderson. Thanks for joining me and Simon for Simon Hunter. for Matt Mitchell. I am Shad Milman. Reminder, follow the favorites feed. Follow the favorites podcast. Like it on Apple Podcasts. Follow it on Apple Podcasts. Follow it on Spotify. The best way to get the podcast. And this has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify. Wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Until after the Super Bowl, when all the answers will be revealed,

then we'll know who was a genius, who was mush, how right can we all really be? Talk of futures. It'll be a good Tuesday next week. We'll talk about futures, everything you need to know. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

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