The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets Wild Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 13, 2023

Kickoff of the NFL postseason looms, so it's time for Action Network experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter to narrow down their top bets for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend slate. With so many quarterbacks making their playoff debuts it can feel like a minefield selecting winners against the spread. Luckily, this isn't our duo's first rodeo. Plus, we hear about interesting teaser opportunities, situation trends, and lots more angles for bettors everywhere. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It's NFL playoff time and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandwell. I love betting with Fandwell because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use. And because they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. And when I win with Fanduel, I get paid fast. Plus, Fanduel is now live in Ohio.

So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to start making every moment more. must be 21 or older and in select states. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8109 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. stop in Louisiana.

Visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. 1-8778. Hope NY or text Hope NY-467-369 in New York, 1-800-2-2-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are heading into Super Wild Card Weekend, folks.

And as always, for every episode, I've got my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. Happy Wild Card Weekend, man. It would surprise everybody to know that before we came on the air, you and I were having a very deep discussion about whether or not Shakespeare was an amalgamation of people. If Homer was real or if somebody was ghost riding him, that's what we talk about on what used to be known as

America's most literate gambling podcast. Now we're just fucking the gens and wise guys. That's right. That's it. That's all we are. We're not talking conspiracy about Bigfoot or the lizard people. We're talking to Shakespeare and Homer. That's right.

We go deep. Well, listen, listen, I have written seven books for bestsellers, but whatever. Chad Milman wrote a book. Whatever. I read at a third grade level, so we're the perfect combo. Together we are totally average. Yeah. It's like a buddy comedy from the 1980s.

So a lot of line moves, a lot of news with the quarterbacks, whether it be Skylar Thompson, we're not getting clarity on that, which we didn't have when we recorded the other day. We're getting a little bit more clarity on Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, based on who's been practicing and what Jim Harbaugh is saying, we're going to break down that. The Jags line has moved again since we recorded. There's a lot to break down. Reminder, we went Ravens Foxhole at six and a half. That line is now at eight and a half. We went, Simon says, Jags 1.5.

That is now at 2.5. Jax plus 2.5. Exact decision was Bucks 2 and a half. it remains a two and a half. Before we get to anything, I do want to ask you one question because, you know, we get a lot of questions in the chat

now that we're doing this live on AMP and we're going to get the sharp calls and the line moves and how we're adjusting and stuff. But in the chat, people have asked, how do you change the inputs for your models as we get to the playoffs?

Because you mentioned on the show the other day that betting in the playoffs and making numbers in the playoffs is just different than it is during the regular season. Fewer games, 10 fewer games. week than in the previous week. So can you explain to people how you change your inputs? Yeah, it's changing the sense that I'm not going to go as big probably with my bets during the

week where it's like you have books are going to take more money in the playoffs. It's just it's just much easier to get money down when you want to get money down, especially where, what is it, 80% of the time, 75% of the time, at least in my career in the playoffs. I'm always almost always on the side of the book needs. It's just very rare that I'm with the book. But like people know this week, there's a couple of public favorites I really like. And that's just like historically, they're profitable in the wild card weekend. So every round I change as well style. Like as the rounds go along, I'm more likely to bet just home teams in general and dogs.

Where it's like if it's a home dog in the next couple rounds, it's people are going to know. It's almost a guarantee I can't help myself because that model is always going to benefit that where home field might not matter as much during the regular season. But playoffs, the data bears it out. The one seed, there's a reason mathematically they make the Super Bowl the most. It's like they literally play two home games and they get a buy week in the first round. So we had to update that all of your playoff stuff just because they got rid of the buy for the two seats. So yeah, for me betting, I would say it's all about situational too where like that Ravens number, I mean, if I guarantee new it was going to be Huntle, I'd be all in on this game. Like I just love everything about it.

Even love the line movement. Like as much as people get scared off by that stuff, it's something we'll talk about. I love it. It's just like, all right, more value. I kind of already factored in, Lamar was going to play. But I did think in the back of my mind, all the smart people we had listened to said Lamar was going to be back by now.

So that's one of those where it's like, yeah, playoffs, I try not to do as much. Like try not to go too crazy betting overboard early in the week. But, yeah, if it's a certain game, I'll bet, you know, it can end up being six figures, no problem on a game. where it's just like, okay, I like this position, like the number, public keeps betting the other way and whatever it is, and the line keeps moving towards what I like,

I'll just keep buying in on those sides. But to me, my biggest betting weeks will always be week one, easy to get the money down all through the summer. It's just easy to get a lot of money down then and then Super Bowl. Super Bowl, they don't care. Anyone, any pro at any book you can walk into, they will take any type of bet you want on Super Bowl. They might limit it, like write those prop bets.

We all know that. But yeah, for money-wise, biggest weeks for me are always going to be week one and always be the Super Bowl. It's just the easiest time to get money down. That's what people are wondering, where my biggest bets usually come in at. When you're betting, let's say, let's take the Ravens and the Jags, for example.

Ravens move from six and a half to eight and a half. We both bet it early in the week at six and a half. Yep. The Jags moved from one and a half. It was at two and a half, moved down, back to one and I got to one and a half. We bet it at one and a half. Now it's a two and a half.

I'm assuming you bet it again. I bet it again. Yeah. Do you bet the same number of you, when it goes up or do you bet more or do you bet less same amount but come saturday i might just load up on it but like right now yeah it's just it's not i don't even call it feelers but that's kind of what it is it's just like all right the number moved against me let me just get more down on it before it drops down in case the pros come in on the other side it's one of those which is a little bit of a

game of there's always going to be professionals on the other side we just talked about there's six games so we're like we're about to do sharp calls it's all going to be all over the place it's very rare where there's going to be games we all align on just because it's the season of opinions. I mean, I was going to say, ask chat if you want to do at the end of our show, we can run through what we think our Super Bowl matchups and all that stuff will be. But that's what this time of year is. It's just forming opinions. And I always joke with people.

It's very rare that it goes like we all think, right? Eagles Chief Super Bowl, both one seeds making it. Last year it was both four seats. I mean, it was the Rams versus Bengals. I mean, tends to get a little weird here. NFL. mathematically it just works out where if you're going to make a bet the one seed the math always says the back that side just because they literally just won a game this weekend and they didn't play.

So that right there is a huge advantage where every team here, like we're about to talk about it's another week and it's another chance to lose. That's why the numbers are always built into that where, you know, I feel again most people minds right now, the 49ers and the bills are the two teams most people are going to be picking right now. They're just a hot team. So it's no surprise that the best. market's kind of shifted that way, even though the chiefs are still the favorite overall. All right.

Well, let's talk about it. Let's get to sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? A lot of dirt throwing on my name. No, I mean, I didn't have a lot of guys talking shit to me this week.

They hated my take with the Ravens. They were like, why are you guys taking that number when you don't. know what the quarterback situation was. And my view was, I felt like the books hung that number knowing more in front of me. I thought they hung it thinking, okay, Lamar, every team doctor said it was a three to six week injury. I believe this is technically week six or week seven for this injury. So we all assumed Lamar would be back. And with Lamar back, that's an amazing number, especially where Joe Burrow, he's pretty much torn up every defense. We've looked historically, the Ravens actually played pretty well against him, just not even this year, but since he's

he's coming to the league. So I, nothing's going to change for me. But it was interesting hearing that there are so many pros that did come in on the six, the Bengals, did come in on the six and a half, did throw them in a bunch of teasers, which we talked last show. I thought the Ravens will cover this number. I just don't think they'll win. Made perfect sense.

People teasing them down. I still think it's not terrible if you want to do it, right? If it's eight and a half, you know a six point teaser, that's two and a half, which we talk all the time. That's a key number if you get it under the three. So still just, it just reeks to me. Everything about this line reeks. I still think the bookmakers know what they're doing here.

Something's fishy. Something's off of this line. So that's definitely we're going to talk about where I was shocked to hear so many pros love this Bengals line where I just, I don't know. As soon as I saw this one open, it really jumped out. So no shock on that one. The one we're going against for sure against the pros is they like to see Hawks. All the trends, there's a bunch of stuff that backs it.

teams that have gotten swept in the regular season. Then you're seeing the team in the playoffs that favor the Seahawks. There's a bunch of trends against rookie quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs, ATS, quarterbacks, what is it, coming off five straight wins heading into the playoffs, ATS, not good. Tons of trends. So I know tons of trend betters. That's literally what they do.

They just bet trends. They're not like me. They're just all day on a computer making calls. They literally will run through their trends on Monday and Tuesday. And they'll be like, okay, this is what the trends say to. to do and this is well doing it because the playoffs are pretty simple it's not you can go back through the history tends to repeat itself the history in the playoffs and that's where if you look through the day of the books they always have an advantage of the public in the playoffs because of public

perception so of course it's it's very chalk on me to back to 49ers i knew the guys would be on their side i'm shocked that enough money came in the books moved it to nine and a half because that's a key number that they moved it off to 10 so that that definitely made me pause but i honestly of my picks change after all these sharp calls. That was one though that was more obvious. I knew that we were on the public side and we talked about that one shot. I feel like that's why I thought you'd probably be on the Seahawks. But yeah, they're all they're all pretty much like that Seahawks side. The one we all lined up on was that Bill's line. We got a little lucky it dropped the nine and a half off like not just fake bad news, but people

just speculate, like speculating that two would be back. People moved that number and nine and a half, which was an absolute gift if you were betting the bills. Call it the news, whatever. He said it was like five minutes after Schaeftier had given it out, put in the action app at 11. And I think not even 20 minutes after that, it was up to 13, 12 and a half of most books. Now it's settled in the 13, 13 and a half of the bills. I told you I made it that number.

With this kid as the backup, that's the number I made it. Now you're telling me they're starting tackles might be out or their starting guard as well might be out. I dude this might close for me at like 15-16 like this number might just keep on moving because not only do you have an inexperienced quarterback now you're taking away an offensive line and I get ifon miller's a huge deal to this bill's defense their weakness is kind of against a run like they're great at pass rushing so to me I I do get why this is the biggest line ever um in football but it was interesting interesting hearing the pros come in so heavy on the bills saw some sharp groups

coming the other side. They thought, okay, this two of news sounds good. That tool would be back this week's pure speculation. They got caught, but I think most of them were able to buy other positions. That's why that, to me, that's why that number moved so heavily. Was anyone pro that had come in on Miami, but out of their position? That's why it was just a double of public. Pro is hitting the same side and guys buy out of their position.

So it's going to be scary because Miami is going to be the biggest need of the books this week. But it's nice to know that the pros line up with us on a chalky favorite. And I believe our guy Evan, who you just put out a lot of the trends, dogs of, I mean, favorites of 10 or more at home since 2016 in the wild card round, 5 and 1, I guess it's spread. So it is good to take some of the big chalk favorites in the wild card round. Yeah. It feels like this is a, we've been seeing as more and more.

There are just more blowouts in this round. So I think it's interesting that we're talking about the bills. you and I talked about it the other day. We texted like that line was sitting at 12 and a half. I still felt good about it at 12 and a half. I bet it at 12 and a half. I still feel good about it. I think they might beat them by 30.

You know, I don't think this. What's that? We make our big balls. I feel like it's big balls for us to take a 13 point favorite here. It's huge balls for us to take a 13 point favorite. Well, let's, I think it may end up being that.

I think it's the, Because it's making me on cornbow. I'm not going to lie to you. Like I just hit it again at 13 because I'm worried about going 13 and a half. I was just like, man, this is a massive favorite. Like Josh Allen, his red zone turnovers. This could be our Achilles heel here. But I just kept thinking about this Bill's team.

Not, I don't, I hate saying team at destiny, but they got the vibes with their fans of like, this is setting up really nice for them in every way. I mean, who knows what the atmosphere is going to be like there. But you can already, I think we all. can agree. It's going to be absolutely mental at Orchard Park. And this is a rookie quarterback. I can't get over the fact that this kid is literally just being thrown to the wolves here with no offensive line either. It's just, man, Miami is just in a terrible spot. Well, look, there's also that stat that rookie quarterbacks going against veteran quarterbacks in the first

last start 14 and 35 against the spread. I forgot when that year, what it goes back to. It might be. I want to say it's 02, but it could be 03. Yeah. Using BetLabs, right? Yeah, it's using BetLabs, so it's a 20-year train. I'm assuming that's 20-Nage. Usually that's when Betlabs cut. So look, let's just do it.

Big Balls, bet of the week. Buffalo Bills, nearly two touchdown favorites. We're going for it. We hate it. We're going for it. Alert here for Josh Allen. Forebacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone. Goodness.

something about this outrageous man became louder and louder. But yeah, like, I'm betting it all straight. This isn't one of the, like, this is one of the games. I threw in a teaser, but if you're still scared of that number, you can tease it up under the seven still. You can still do that. I get it. But I feel like Chad just nailed it.

Just historically, the trends, everything backs. You just take this number. It's the quarterback position. That's what we talk about all the time. The playoffs, the quarterback can overcome even bad coaching in the playoffs, where we saw that with Aaron Rogers. I don't want to show on Zach Taylor too much, but Joe Burroughs talent so out of this world.

I feel like he's been carrying Zach Taylor for a while here. To me, it's just one of those. We're in the playoffs. I rarely get these kind of opportunities because this could have been my homes, right? If they didn't get the one seat, if the bills had gotten it, and what would this line be an arrowhead? Miami going there with this kid.

It probably would be 14. So I do think this line's still a little undervalue because I really do neutral field, Bill's Chiefs, that's a pick, or maybe minus one towards the bills. So to me, I still think you're getting great value on this Bill's team. You mentioned the Seahawks and Niners. It's interesting to me, there's two games that I haven't bet yet. The Giants and the Vikings and the Seahawks and the Niners.

Yeah. Because everything in my body says bet the Niners at nine and a half. But there's something that is holding me back. You're a pro. Yeah, it's like, it's the situation, the fact that it's going to be shitty weather. It's a rookie quarterback against a veteran quarterback, even though it's first time in the playoffs for both. The Seahawks are so undervalued. The 49ers are so overvalued.

Everything about this to me says, I think I'm just going to stay away. You can't. It's the playoffs. No, that's fair. I just, like, there's no, I see no. advantage either way. Yeah, it's just tough where I do. Like I just got to stay staunch in my belief that the league has figured out, Gino. If you just look at his numbers towards the tail end of the season, it was bad. You look at the three quarterbacks he beat in this last half of the

season. It was John Wilford, Baker Mayfield, and then whoever the backup was to Arizona. So the Gino, that's my biggest thing here where it's like, if he was playing really well coming into this, it would be a no-brainer because it's literally like what Chad's talking about, which is giving them a weird feeling of. It's a division. It's the third time they've seen each other. They've already been swept, which is like all the math backs out backing the team that just got swept. Now they play each other in the playoffs. But it's just that Gino factor where it's like Brock Purdy, I think he's going to get caught. Like, I mean, we haven't given our Super Bowl predictions here.

I do think he's eventually going to get caught. It's just, it's a lot to put on this kid's shoulders. I mean, in these games, I talked about it. If you go back and look, he's been not only flawless, he's just running a really smooth offense. Like guys in his face, he always makes the right read. It's just been insane, especially when I talked to, like, especially college pros who bet this kid.

And like, I honestly knew nothing really about him. They don't get it. They're like, dude, if you watch him at college, he had talent, but this is like out of body experience right now for this kid. And this matchup where he has all the confidence in the world, they're at home. I'm going to take it, especially now that's under 10. I'm still going to back it. But obviously, like Chad just said, it's never a good feeling.

I know it's not just one or two pros. It's a lot of pros that are back in the Seahawks in this spot. They like this position, but I still think this is the move here for me with a 49er. So I'll be on 49ers first half. I'll be on 49ers' first game. All game. It's just a spot I like to take them. Maybe next week I'll go against it, right?

because everyone in the world's going to be on them again against the Vikings and that or Giants, wherever they play, Tampa, Dallas. That'll be the time I'll go against them. But in this spot against the Seahawks team that they've already climbed them out, they won their Super Bowl last week in overtime making the playoffs. I just good letdown spot for them against a team that's just better in every aspect. Stucky and Colin Wilson, big bets on campus podcast covering college sports. They do our college football.

they loved Brock Purdy at Iowa State as long as it was in October. I called it Brocktober. Anytime it was in October, they didn't like Brock Purdy. Because he was what a crazy ETS record in October or something? He just lit it up in October. Like that's every year when Iowa State started sort of trending upward

and, you know, would have an upset, would play the game close in the Big 12. And then come November they'd fade like they always do because it's Iowa State. It's not like a big-time program. But the Jags opened a two and a half, we're plus two and a half, got bet down to one and a half, bounced back up.

Yeah. Why do you think it bounced back up? I know why I still love the Jags and bet it again at two and a half. Why do you still love the Jags? I truly believe it bounced back up because of Joey Bosa news. He got full practice in, so he is good to go. And I think to me, Joey Bosa, even if he's coming off an injury this year,

and he's still to me worth half a point. Like, he is an absolute game wrecker. And they're down, I wouldn't say that one of the best left tackles on football, Jaguars, they got issues on their own line. Like, they've had injuries this year. So the Joy Bosa, Becky's full on practicing this week. It's just, it's bad. Mike Williams, though, still not practicing, so I'll take that.

That's a bonus. I'm shocked that the pros like the charges here so much. It just feels like such a public darling, I don't know, I'm not a sucker bet, but it's... It does. It feels like a sucker bet. Look, Simon, we've faded the Chargers as favorites all season long. We're fading the Chargers as favorites on the road in a coaching mismatch.

You know, like I am just not a believer that Brandon Staley is wily like a Fox. I think he's a wild card who sometimes makes incredibly irresponsible decisions. And I think we saw it this past week with how we used the roster. And so I like the Jags at home with Doug Peterson. It makes no sense to me. Yeah. And it's just funny talking like this, just the fact that I know two really smart groups that came in on the Jagger, the charges, I should say, at one. And their whole view of it was, yeah, I could see the Jaguar's covering this number,

but Herbert's not losing this game. Like they got him winning a really close battle. Their model makes it too. I make it a pick. So like to me, yeah, the value right now is screaming on the Chargers. But I saw where they're coming from. If you go back and look through Herbert's record. You mean on the Jacks?

Yeah, sorry, on the Jags. If you, if you get with, I get what they're coming from. Like Herbert plays close games, and those close games, he tends to win them. And Trevor Lawrence on their side, we've seen him play well this year, But if you go back and look at the teams, he did beat, there was always a reason for that, either between injuries or whatever it was. I get they have so many question marks around Lawrence, but I feel like what you're just talking about is what they keep overlooking, which is the coaching discrepancy in this is just major. Like Doug, he is such a weapon in the playoffs, the fact that he's been through it and he knows exactly how to handle these kind of moments.

The guy is a rookie coach in the playoffs. He's never been a head coach in the playoffs. That's a big deal. ATS-wise, I don't know the exact data on it. I know there's going to be a discrepancy there. There has to be tough to be a first-time head coach. But to me, I'm hoping it gets the three, but I would be shocked if it gets two-three.

Because to me, that's an easy position in middle for most of these pros. Like if you've got the one on the chargers, it's crossed a two a key number, two and a half a key number. Now it's hit three. That's crazy. So we'll see, Chad. If it does hit three of that, I will not go out of you. I'd be a little terrified.

If we're sitting here Saturday night, it's just sitting on three. That means the books really need the Jaguars, which would be a little scary just because, you know, it's not ideal when they're letting guys middle of them moving that number to such a key number. But I wasn't surprised that more guys weren't on the Jaguars, but it was a sense that every pro I know for the most part is on the Buccaneers. I thought it would be the same thing here, like a good home dog, a good spot with a good coach. This was a good spot to back this Jaguars team. So in my leaking confidence a little, probably a little bit because it's like playoff time. There's just a lot of noise in my head. But this Jaguars team, I just never had a doubt.

I'd be taking them. The only way I would take the Chargers has been flipped. And the Jaguars were minus one favorites. And it just never was going to be that way. The public is always going to like the Chargers. They're always going to have an affinity for Herbert. It's just, SHA, we're getting good value. We have to take the value.

So two and a half. I'll take that every time. Like I said, it just seems nonsensical to me. The wise guys seem to be buying into a narrative that Justin Herbert is the second coming of the next great quarterback. And with Keenan Allen, they're a different team. We saw enough of the Jags. We went all in on Doug Peterson as a coach. We did, right?

Like before the season started, we said we believe Doug Peterson will be able to do things with this team and this quarterback to get them in a position to win the division. And that's exactly what happened. And it started to click in the latter half of the year. So no reason to get off that Dougie P train right now. Totally agree. NFL Wildcard Weekend is here. And the easiest way to get in the playoffs is with Fandual America's number one sportsbook. New customers join today to get started with $150 in free bets guaranteed when you place your first.

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Let's talk about the Bucks. You mentioned the Bucks. Love the Bucks at two and a half. Stucky and Rating. We're talking about it today on the Action Network podcast. You know, I love to listen to it on Thursdays. And we were already on the Bucks. Stucky was talking about the Bucks defense.

We already had made some notes. We talked about this on Green Dot Daily on Tuesday. We talked about it on the podcast. Bucks defense against the pass plays to the weaknesses of Dac Prescott. They will get pressure. They allow their top 10 in quarterback sacks. Their top 10 in total passing yards allowed. Their top 10 in yards per pass attempt.

And then Stucky pointed out something when Akeem Hicks and Vita Vaya are in the lineup at the same time, this team was six and one this year, averaging under four yards per rush allowed and averaging under 16 points per game allowed. Without those two, nearly five yards per rush allowed and nearly 25 points per game. So I think we're getting a pretty good matchup here against an offense with an offense and Brady that I think. was starting to peak in the final few weeks of the year other than Atlanta game. Yeah, and the only, like, we got a little bit of pushback. And the only pushback was, well, their stats are skewed just because they played in such a weak division. And I said to them, well, they had guys missing time a lot.

So Hicks was out for a decent amount of the season. Like, that's a lot of, yeah, I can get where they're coming from. That does help, obviously, them playing in a division where you look at the quarterbacks in the division. Yeah, it was an absolute train wreck. like Dak is one of the better quarterbacks they'll face all season. But if you go back and watch that film before he even got hurt in that game early in the year, the Bucks just did exactly what Chad talked about.

They had a lot of pressure, which obviously Dack doesn't like. He hates being moved off his spot. And then you saw in the secondary, he just did was not be able to move the ball against that really ferocious defense that Bucks do have when they're healthy. We already talked about that. To me, the biggest thing is the flip side where Cowboys secondary, they're just not what they were earlier in the year. They have so many injuries to that position.

And we already know God wins healthy. Mike Evans is healthy. We expect Julio to play in this game. Those are major weapons for Tom. And we've seen Tom, if he finds a team with a little bit of weakness, all he does is attack the weakness. He does not care. Completely corrected.

Tom just knows better. He'll just keep attacking it. We saw that against Carolina. Mike Evans, he was literally in a coma for, I don't even know, 11 weeks. And he scored about three bombs in that game. And it just felt like they kind of found something there, where Tom was just like, this is here. When I need this, this is always here.

So matchup-wise, we love it. We already talk about, though. It's scary where this just feels too easy. It felt too easy when I took the three. It feels easy when it's two and a half. So one of those, I bet early in the week at three, I've taken a little at two and a half. And now I've just been waiting where it's like, this goes to two by Monday. That's okay.

I'll still take it there. I'll just take the money line. If it goes a three, that's what I'm hoping for. It's just hoping that the public or whoever chases on the Cowboys, come Monday and night and we get it back up to three. So if you already got the three or two and a half, it's one of those lines,

you just hang out on it, wait until the game, wait until Monday. Not much you do with it at this point. Last game to review. The only game we didn't spend a lot of time on last time was the Giants and the Vikings. Anyone call you about the Giants and the Vikings? I think we, like,

I'd probably lean giants, but don't feel strongly about the Giants. I'd say like a very, very small amount of pros are on the Giants. I'd say almost most of the guys that talk to, they just do are the same thing we're doing. You're taking a veteran quarterback against the guy who hadn't been the playoffs before,

and it's historically good, where Daniel Jones, this is, if you're a guy who's just been backing them all season, I think they're the best team, ATS this season, the Giants, this is your dream. It's what you've been betting all season if you bet the Giants. It's everyone like me, doubting Daniel Jones, doubting the Giants,

and them catching three points, and they just somehow cover the numbers. So to me, I just like the Vikings in this spot. I like the number for them. I like Kirk in this spot. The Giants had an incredible year. I just feel like it runs out here. But completely, this is why I didn't make it one of our four or anything like unique to it.

Yeah. All the games, just the most hated, torturous bet I'm making because I want to bet Daylon Jones. I love these tiny teams. They're just gritty as hell and cover every number compared to what we think the Vikings are, which is absolute fraud, and they're way inflated than they should be, just because Kirk had an incredible, incredible season in the fourth quarter. So that's why I'm going to back the Vikings,

almost this whole playoff run, as long as they're in it, just because they just feel like one of those teams that just knows how to win. Like they know to win ugly. They know how to keep games close. So two and a half, we already talked about, two and a half automatic butt Vikings, three and a half automatic bet giants.

It's just the perfect number at three. I'll just take the Vikings because I like them at home here. By the way, we've mentioned the luck rankings all season long on this podcast. I should tell you that the biggest discrepancy in the luck rankings for the playoffs right now, the only one that is more than 16 point differential in luck parameters. And that was a at higher than 16 points or more in differential was covering it like a 62% clip during the season. Tampa Bay, Dallas. So another reason to take to Tampa.

Yep. Everything else, it's interesting, is below 10. And so there's no real advantage below 10. But that was a big one. I would say even Cowboys fans could agree with that. Where it's like they had a lot of close games and a lot of bounces kind of go their way where even when Dak put them in bad positions with all of his turnovers, they found away.

So that's why it's like that the stat Evan put. out about what the hell was it, Brady being 2 and 14 ATS and his last 16 night games. It's like, fuck man, can I not see this stuff? Stop trying to talk me off this books one. I'm trying to stay staunch where it's like I know this is the number and I have to take Brady here.

Evan, of course, is Evan Abrams who runs all of our research and is a true savant when it comes to betting information. By the way, I should say, you and I waffling on the Vikings, you're taking a little piece of the Vikings. Raybon, love the Giants on the Action Network

podcast. Homer. No, I'm kidding. He's a pro, but he is a Giants fan. Full disclosure. That's good. All right. Let's see.

Our big balls, we're going with the bills, minus 13. You want to break down the Ravens game? Well, we kind of did. Yeah, that's fair. I would you say everyone, like, I'm still in on it. I'm still in on the eight and a half, but we obviously need Huntling. That's my biggest thing I wanted to say. It was just if you've already bet it,

don't keep betting it every day. Like, don't be a psycho like me. Wait until you get the QB notification, whatever the news is on the quarterback position, because it's a big deal. I mean, Hunley, I know he's not an all-starring like that, but if you go back, he kept them in most close games. He was able to put drives together.

That would just be a big deal for him playing in this game. So just keep waiting. I would say if you're nervous about your position, just tease out. Do a teaser with the bangles get out of it, do whatever you want to do, get down to that two and a half. but I already told you. I just, there's something about this line.

It's just, it's rare we go through the wild card weekend without at least one real upset. And this would be, I feel like all the other games, there wouldn't be really an upset, right? If the bucks, one of the Jags, I mean, it's under three. It wouldn't be shocking, I feel like the most people. This would truly be shocking. Joe Burrow losing here at home would be very shocking.

So I'm just, the reason I'm not giving up their money line is just because I don't see it happening. Like, we talk a time, Joe cool. It's just hard to think. think this guy's not going to win by a field goal, which is what he does. But like we said all the time, this is an inflated line. Wumped way too up in the playoffs, everyone plays tighter. And when you have a dominant defense, which the Ravens do, you're always in it. You're always in it. And that's what I'm trying to keep insane in my head where it's like they're going to be in this game because of that

defense. And that's really what we're back in here. So injuries, again, are mounting for that, that Bengals team on the flip side. The Ravens defense have only gotten healthier to this point. This is the healthiest they've been all season. So that's that's what we're back in. We're back in this Ravens defense. You can follow in the action app. I bet it at six and a half. I bet it again at seven and a half. Of course, it went up to eight and a half. I haven't bet it at eight and a half just because I feel like I got it at seven and a half. I'm just going to wait on the news for Huntley, like you said. The foxhole bet for us was the Raven six and a half. Now we'll just say it's Ravens eight and half. Simon says was Jags plus one and a half. Clearly you like it at two and a half.

and the exact decision was the bucks plus two and a half. I think that's everything. Just enjoy people. This is it. Six games. Next week's four, week after that, two,

then one. Enjoy it. Most games we'll have the rest of the year. It's really going to be an amazing, super wildcard two words weekend. This has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter for producer Extraordinary Matt Mitchell.

Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Listen all the way through. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

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