The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Final Four Betting Guide

Episode Date: March 30, 2022

College basketball blue bloods square off this weekend, and here to break it all down from a betting perspective are Action Network college hoops experts Stuckey and BJ Cunningham. Host Chad Millman and his pro gambler sidekick Simon Hunter probe their guests for gambling angles for a legendary Duke vs. UNC game, plus a Villanova vs Kansas contest that boasts plenty of intrigue of its own.We get the latest injury updates, plus leans on the totals, and a deep dive in Coach K "appreciation" from BJ and Simon. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, chief content officer of the action. work. We're heading into the final four. But as always, football is everywhere. And so Simon, Hunter, professional better, my companion, my compadre, my BFF. It's good to see you, brother. Yeah, good to see you, buddy. We're big time now. I keep saying that every time I come on here, but we actually have three producers now for our little Rinky Dink show. I'm sitting here with three producers, Chad. We have more producers than we do have hosts of this show. It's pretty incredible. I think it's an indication of how big the volume is getting.

They now have two producers. I'm looking forward to the blood duel that will ensue to see who gets primacy to be the A number one producer from the volume side of the favorites. Anything before we get to, of course, our Action Network, college basketball experts who had been with us all during the tournament, B.J. Cunningham and Stuckey, anything NFL related that we need to unpack before we get to the college basketball. I mean, I know they changed the overtime rules, which Matt Mitchell would care less.

His old view is it's one year too late. It's not fair! It's not fair! But it's a change that we all support, right? We all think in the playoffs, both teams should get the ball, even though we know they're both going to score the exhausted defenses. Still, you never know. Like the Chiefs and the Bengals game, the Chiefs got the ball.

They couldn't score. They had to punt it to the bench. angles, which in turn did score. So I didn't know, I didn't really think they needed to make the change, but I'm cool with them making the change. So to me, that's the biggest news. I know we have the Tyree Kill, everything, all this crazy movement, but that that overtime rule in the playoffs, that's going to be something that's a big deal going forward for the rest of our lives. Yeah, look, like the last few years since the overtime rule changed to the touchdown scoring rule is completely changed how you root for games, right? And as you're getting close to the end of the game,

And sometimes if your team is ahead, you're almost rooting for the other team to tie because if the spread is three, you want to get it into overtime to give them a potential to score a touchdown. You know, it's just that much more intensity and sweat for the rest of us. It's just that much more drama. It's that much more discomfort. It's that much more you and me testing on a Sunday afternoon saying, I can't believe we bet on the Las Vegas Raiders.

Can't wait. Already dream about it. Let's bring in our boys. B.J. Cunning. Stucky, you've been with us throughout the college basketball tournament. We've made it to a final four. We've got Kansas playing Villanova. We've got poetically, like proof that God is a sports fan.

We've got UNC taking on Duke for the first time ever in the NCAA tournament. Coach K's final set of games or game, depending on what happens. How lucky are we? This is fantastic. Stucky. as a man who was literally created to Beck College basketball. How do you feel about this Final Four? I'm just pissed about this overtime.

I had a huge bill's feature last year from the preseason, so of course I knew they were going to change it after the Bulls didn't get possession. But the tournament's been awful overall. We kind of deserve these great matchups in the Final Four. Hopefully we get some buzzer beaters. And, yeah, it's about time that we get Duke, Carolina. In the Final Four, it's rare to get a conference matchup

in the Final Four. and since 1985, when the tournament expanded, this is the first matchup where two teams will meet in the final four that split just two regular season meetings one to one. It's never happened before since 1985. It's only the fourth conference matchup in the final four since 2000. We've only seen one in the past 20 years, and that was Syracuse, North Carolina in 2016.

So, yeah, it should be two really good games. I'm excited for Villanova, Kansas, too. Villas a little short-handed, but two great coaches there. So, yeah, it's Blue Blood Central in the Final Four. So hopefully we get some really good games. I'm just glad that St. Petersburg didn't make it another round because no one needed to wait a week to watch them get waxed. So, yeah, I'm really excited.

I think we got the two really good games coming up. I agree with you. I was walking my dog this morning, 20 degrees here in Central Connecticut at the end of March. I thought to myself, these are the big thoughts I have as a powerful media executive, we're getting the final four we deserve because it was a kind of a boring tournament. You know, the St. Peter's drama was fun. There were no buzzer beaters. BJ, no buzzer beaters. I know, it's insane. And I feel like the first day was was pretty crazy with all the upsets with Kentucky and Iowa, Connecticut, you know, a bunch of teams going down.

But after that, really the only story was St. Peters. I mean, we obviously, you know, we had some really great games between Houston and Arizona and pretty much every single number one seed going down, except for Kansas who coming into the tournament, I think a lot of people would agree would maybe be the most fraudulent number one seat of all the other number one seats. You know, I've gone Zaga going down in the Sweet 16. There's a lot of like weird interesting things. And somehow we have this narcissistic retirement tour continuing into the final four that I am just so sick of and ready to be over with. Spoken like a true leader, which is all Shashefsky says he ever wanted to be. That's what I was trained to do. That's why I went to West Point to be a leader.

The headline is going to be Coach K, Coach K, Coach K, Coach K, down your throats for the next five days until we finally get this thing over with. So I'm just hoping and praying to God that Duke does not win the title. How dare you? How dare you? I mean, you got to admit, this is ridiculous, Simon. I mean, we are just on a pretty much a year-long narcissistic retirement tour with Coach K. I mean, I was sick of it in June when he announced it, and I am still sick of it now. So I am just ready for Duke to be done. If I spend every waking moment trying to just be you, eventually that becomes a shallow life. That can't be what motivates me.

No respect of history, no respect for his elders, Chad. Unbelievable. These young kids nowadays, I've, on the other hand, have enjoyed it. Every time I'm watching these games with him, I'm like, this is it. Not that I thought they're going to lose a Texas Tech fire. I honestly did go into that game thinking like Texas Tech is going to actually probably win this game. And it was a weird feeling as a fan.

I was like, this is the last time I'm going to watch Coach K, which it's just different. I don't know. I've just, he's been in all of our lives for so long on their sideline. I'm very nostalgic about it. So I'm the opposite end of view. I'm like just sad about these coaches who that's what I think of now with college basketball. It's change where it's not really, I'm not attached to the players like I was when I was really young.

It's more about the coaches for me as I've gotten older. So it's just something I'm going to miss. So I'm enjoying it, but I feel like we all know how this is going to end. It feels a little rig that Duke's going to somehow win this whole tournament. Oh, Duke is 100% winning the tournament. There's no doubt about it. If the refs went out of their way for Baylor to come back from 25 against North Carolina and did everything they could to keep Baylor to get Baylor to advance and they still couldn't,

there's no way Duke is not winning the national title. I'm with you, though, Simon. I'm not a Duke fan at all. I don't have Duke animus, but like I've never liked him that much. I've always rooted for North Carolina over Duke, but there's something about this run that I've been very sentimental about. I keep thinking about the finality to sort of a long career that has been so successful. I also feel like Coach Kay has been a little bit warmer.

He's like been a little bit more grandfatherly. It's made him, made me feel a little bit more like, Like you said nostalgic about the experience. Stuck, are you feeling any feels for Duke? No, I don't really care. I mean, I appreciate the history, but I mean, I grew up hating Duke. I mean, my dad was Duke. So it was the first team that I hated.

He loved Duke. He was out the late in her shot front row under the basket that he made the shot in. Wow. And I didn't talk to him for like a week. I was only like six. I was six years old. So I don't really remember. But my mom said I cried and then I wouldn't talk to him for a week.

So I grew up hating Duke and then they were playing Kentucky and then I married a girl of a Kentucky girl. And my dad says it's the only reason I did is because of that shot to get them back for it. No, but I mean, I appreciate the history of it. And Duke's playing really well, probably the most talented team in the country. If you just go by composite, you know, recruiting ranks and, you know, you have like Kentucky, Duke, Memphis. You know, these are the teams that are up there, just pure talent. And then Carolina is playing as well as they have. I mean, since March 1st, they're the best team in the country by a lot of metrics,

and they wax Duke to end the seasons. There's a lot of storylines here, and then two teams playing really well with a lot of talent. So I'm just excited for game itself, and I can appreciate the history of it. There'll be some emotion there to see Coach Kay, if that is his last game or not. I think it just adds to the drama of the final four and the week-long build-up in a tournament that hasn't had that much drama. we're not going to be lacking for it in this game for sure. Well, listen, I think it's funny that the two people who you would think are the most hard

scrabble when it comes to college basketball because we're not regular watchers are feeling the most sentimental. And two people who are more invested in college basketball emotionally and financially could give a shit. So I think that's good because now you can break down the games with zero sentimentality or attachment. I'll say one more thing. I want to break down the games.

I've been incredibly annoyed at the television schedule. I feel like they've screwed this up. I feel like the way they are programming some of these games, who they're putting on, when they're putting them in the windows. I just want to get that off my chest. I thought it was like very specific when Duke played in the 10 o'clock window on the East Coast and Gonzaga played in the 7 o'clock window. Get that game at 7 o'clock in prime time where everybody in the East Coast can watch the whole game

because no one in the East Coast was staying up until 1 o'clock for what was potentially his last game. especially not someone who goes to bed at 10 o'clock, but whatever. Stuck, break it down. No Justin Moore in Villanova. Kansas opened at three and a half, immediately bet to four, up to four and a half on the news of Justin Moore. Give me your take. Yeah, I think it's a little too high.

I think we might see a five and then I'm going to take Villanova. I make this line like a little under one close to a coin flip. Moore's worth about two points to the spread for me. It's a little hard. You could argue that he's worth a little more. They don't have a lot of depth. So the minutes, the on-off splits with him on the court and off are not significant. But a player of his caliber in the pace that Villanba plays, and they play really slow.

Like, this is a pace clash. This is Villeneva plays really slow. It's the bottom 15 and adjusted tempo. Candace wants to play fast, top 60 and adjusted tempo. But I think Moore is worth about two points. But I think for the first game without them, it might not sting as much. Like, I don't think Nova can win at all now. I can't.

They could, but it's just going to. to take a lot and Moore's loss is going to be really significant because he's big on defense. He's big in their pick and roll and he's big backing down defenders when they invert their offense. He can post up guards and he's really effective there as well. So he's effective in many different facets. And it's a team that just doesn't have depth or they're, you know, outside the top 300 and bench minutes. They don't play a lot of guys. So who are you going to get in for him? That's a major question mark. It could be Antoine. Is it? It says it gets a little iffy. but they played without them one game this year and they waxed Yukon, a really good team.

They were up by 25 with 10 to go. They ended up winning by 11. And I like backing these teams when they lose a key player for the first game without them. And, you know, you kind of have this factor, two things work in your favor. Everyone else kind of steps up. You know, it's the, all, we know, we all have to step up. And then the other thing, which I think is more important is that you have a really good coach here with a whole week to prepare is that you're probably going to get different looks from Villanova that Candace doesn't have on Phil. I'm sure Jay Wright's going to cook up

some different things that Candace doesn't have on tape that might be effective early on. And look, Villanova keeps you out of transition and they're elite defending in transition, which you have to do against Kansas. They're so good when they can get out and run. Villanova's going to grind this game down to a halt. I think they're going to work through Dixon. They're going to work through the post a lot more. They're going to have some tricks up their sleeve. but you can have some success against the Kansas Biggs on offense. And Villanova is a really good defense. I think Antoine can step in and still be effective.

So I think this is too many points in what I think will be a lower scoring game, a total 133. So I can get five with Jay Wright here. It's a Kansas team that has struggled for most of the season to get margin. So I don't think it's a terrible matchup for Nova. The loss of more hurts, but I think it's being over accounted for in the market. And for a one game without them, I think everyone else can step up. You might have some new looks.

So I'll be on Nova here, and I hope I'm waiting to see if I can get a five. BJ. Yeah, I agree with him. I just to echo off what Stucky said. The main point is, you know, a great coach like Jay Wright, having a lot of time to prepare for this is huge. I think that especially if they can keep out of transition and play this game in the half court, it's going to benefit them greatly. Because Kansas, while they're really good in transition, they're really not that effective

in the half court. They're 150 second in points per session. and half court offense. What Villanova does a fantastic job at, and you saw it against Houston, is they keep teams away from a rim. They're top 25 in terms of preventing teams getting the rim, and then also top 25 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

So that forced Houston into a lot of outside shots. They obviously went one of 20 from behind the arc. Now, obviously, you know, that's not going to, over time, the regression is going to catch up with them. And a lot of those shots for Houston were open, but it echoes a larger point that that's what Houston was forced to do. They weren't forced to be able to get anything inside. So David McCormick can be.

Mitch Lightfoot, even though they have height advantages over anybody that Villanova has up there, I still think Villanova will be effective down in the post. So I agree with Stucky. I think the number is floating a tad too high. The question mark I have is Jay Wright can switch things up. Villanova obviously runs a ton of pick and roll and shoots a lot of threes. Well, Kansas is very good at defending both those things. So if they can play this game in the half court, like Stucky said, maybe go through the post a little bit more with Dixon. I think it's a decent matchup for Villanova. So I agree with Stucky. If we can get a five, I'll be with him firing on Villanova.

What if you can't? Right now, 57% of the bets are on Kansas, 76% of the money. I think that was a lot of early money that moved it. What if it doesn't get to five? I mean, I'd probably end up just playing four and a half out of principle. Maybe you can get a better number live. And maybe you can get a situation where Philanova goes up early, which they've gone up early, pretty much every game in this tournament and has been able to control the pace,

you may be able to get a nice middle situation and get Kansas out of plus numbers. So if Villanova can start fast and get out and make a few shots to start the game and slow this tempo down, I do believe Kansas can get back in this game. So you might get a good chance at a middle, but four and a half is getting close and probably good enough for me to play it. Yeah, I like hearing that. So looking at this and this matchup, UNC, Duke, eight seed, first of the two seed, all I heard all year. I just got to get this off my chest.

The ACC, how bad it was. We heard it all year about how bad the ACC was. Now we're sitting here with two teams in the final four. Would you both agree? I'll go to you first, BJ, that either team, Duke or UNC, will be favorite versus Kansas or Nova in the final? I would think that Kansas would probably be a favorite over UNC,

but I do think that Duke will be a favorite over Nova or Kansas. So I think the only scenario you have there is Kansas being a favorite. But I mean, you talk about the ACC. I mean, they were bad for most of the season. It was basically just Duke or nothing. And North Carolina has gotten hot here in the tournament. And, you know, Miami obviously got hot as well. So, yeah, at the end of the season, we can say the ACC was great.

But during the regular season, they weren't. Like, it wasn't even close to the level of the SEC or Big Ten. So, yeah, it's, this just kind of happens from time to time in the tournament. Teams get hot. And then at the end, we say, oh, my gosh, the AC is great. But the reality was for most season, they really weren't. do you think stock duke duke and duke and kansas are about even from a power ratings perspective you'd probably get duke driven out to a one one and a half point favorite maybe odds makers open it there because there'll probably be some public love for duke especially after they beat carolina but from a metric standpoint most people would would line that game right around a pick and then you know right now duke is a four point favorite over carolina so you can assume that you know Carolina is a four-point underdog against Kansas as well,

but North Carolina would have just beat Duke. They'll probably get a bump for that. Depending on how Kansas looks against an underman Nova team, I would say it's probably going to be Kansas minus three, maybe two and a half. Depends on how good North Carolina and Kansas look. But Kansas would definitely be favored over North Carolina. Duke, Kansas toss up,

but I think that it would end up being Duke a small favor. Wow. Yeah, love to hear that. Fan dual sports book, NBA same game parlays give you the chance to turn a small bet into a big payday. Choose any NBA game and combine multiple bets like the number of three-pointers made, who the leading score will be, and more all into one wager for bigger wins. For example, tonight, I'll go with the Bulls Money Line, the over and Zach Levine to score the first basket. Make the mid-season feel like the playoffs when you bet on fans. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not.

only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports. and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford

show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day but just so y'all know

I mean at this point this is the second episode where we've discussed crack so I'm starting to see there's a through line We also have AIDS on the table right now so Thank you for finishing that sentence

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have already faced each other. Isn't that one of those where it's like, I got to just throw my fan amount just take the four points like this line's too high for this kind of matchup. Yeah, I think the line is priced pretty correctly in this matchup. What I'm very interested to see from Duke, a lot of the narrative round is because North Carolina plays a very fast tempo, their top 40 and adjusted tempo. But the two matchups that they faced, Duke just torched North Carolina in transition. 1.15 points per possession, the first matchup in 1.24 in the second. So Duke obviously plays a slower pace in North Carolina. You could say, well, if they play in the half court that's going to be advantage. They can keep North Carolina at a transition. Well,

North Carolina is outside the top 200 in defending in transition. And with those two matchups earlier, I mean, the second match of there were 75 possessions, that's the fastest pace that Duke has played all throughout the AC regular season, conference tournament and the NCAA tournament. So with both, I think that it actually is an advantage for Duke to play a track meet here with North Carolina, given the success they've had against them before. What I find interesting in that second match is neither team really shot the ball lights out, even though we had 175 points. I mean, both were about 45% from inside the arc. Only 16 threes were made in the game, but these teams combined for 92 points at the rim. And both them are very good teams at defending at

the rim. So I find that very interesting. I think we'll probably see some regression there. The difference in that game was not kind of just got to the line 22 times and Duke had under 10 free throws. So both these teams are top 10 in terms of free throw allowed. So it's really, really interesting. I actually like the over 151 points. I know we're playing in a football stadium here in the sight lines and and all that jazz that could throw off team shooting. But I really think the pace is going to be very fast in this one, because given the matchup and the fact that North Carolina is actually very good in the half court in terms of defense,

they're the second best defensive rebounding team. They don't foul. I think it's actually a big advantage for Duke to get out in transition and play this as somewhat of a fast pace. So the total sitting at 151, I actually like the over here, even if these teams come out shooting or comes out slow, maybe nervous a little bit. You might be able to get jumping on a live over as well.

So I think we're going to see a fast-paced game and a lot of points here in the third meeting. Stuck? I would lean towards Carolina here. I think the line is pretty good. I mean, Duke was an 11.5 point favorite at home, and that Coach K sendoff at the front of his home finale and Carolina rolled. Duke rolled on Carolina's home court. But since that game, you know, you had some public money built into that,

the situation of Coach Kay's final home game. And, you know, Cameron is worth, you know, in a conference game, maybe upwards of four points in that spot for maybe four and a half points. in that particular spot. So, you know, you would say, okay, well, Duke now on a neutral court should be, what, six, seven, but Carolina, you know, won that game. They get a huge bump. Duke, it's downgraded.

And since the first of the month, which is a seven-game sample size, pretty big sample size. And we were talking 30 games, that's about a quarter of the year. Carolina has been the best team in the country. And if you adjust for an opponent, and they've been playing to the team that we thought, and look, their peak is as good as anyone in the country, maybe just slightly below. Dukes. But the problem is with Carolina all years that the consistency wasn't there. You would see them, you know, lose at home to Boston College. And it's just that defense didn't

show up in certain games, but it's a tournament. You can expect the defense to show up. And that's been the case. So far, the tournament, all of their guards are playing really well. Brady-Matic is a matchup problem. You know, and you got Baycott in the middle. It's just a really talented team. And I've been impressed with what their first time had Coachieper Davis has done and some of the adjustments that he's made. So I think that Duke should be favorite of the line is about right, but I think it's going to come down to the wire. I don't think either defense can really stop the other offense.

Duke's defense still has major issues that, you know, everyone is really forgetting about down the stretch. They couldn't stop a nosebleed. You know, they got just shredded by Virginia Tech. They got shredded by North Carolina. And then, you know, they get in the tournament. They'd look better, but they played, you know, Arkansas doesn't have a great offense. Texas Tech has a horrific offense, and they still scored at will.

North Carolina is the best offense by far that Duke will face. They can really exploit some of the offball issues that they have. North Carolina's defense also isn't great, and Duke's offense is arguably the most talented in the country. I don't see Carolina get many stops. So it's a really high total for a final four game. You know, you've got to have a lot go right, and you can't have the teams get tight and start to play slow, late,

which can happen. but I would also lean over. I would also lean taking the points with Carolina. I haven't played anything yet. But I also think it's a great live trading game. It should be runs on both sides. If you want to wait to get Carolina with a better number or Duke with a better number, I think you will be able to do so during the course of the game.

And if you want to get both sides, you know, say Duke get a pick and Carolina plus six or seven and try to middle it, I think there'll be a good chance you have that opportunity as well. But I think this game really comes down to the white. buyer and it should be one of the most exciting games of the tournament because I don't think either defense can stop the other offense. Throughout this whole tournament run, Duke has not faced a good three-point shooting team. Arkansas was outside the top 300. Texas Tech has been streaky all season long. Obviously Michigan State hasn't been good and then obviously Cal State Fullerton that didn't take a high number of threes. North Carolina can knock it down from behind

the arc. They're 38% on the season. They made a ton of threes against Duke in both meetings. So it's it's really troublesome here for Duke. And I think we're going to see their defense to address back to like what Stuckey said, back to the ACC tournament against Virginia Tech. Consensus here seems to be lean towards Villanova if it can get to five, but you still kind of like it at four and a half, lean towards the over in Duke UNC. We're just happy to get a final four that has high profile teams and hopefully get good games and a good final. Stucky, BJ, Action Network, College Basketball experts. Thank you for all you've done. Thank you for all. the work on the BBOC pods.

Thank you for all the work, supplying content to the masses in the app, actionnetwork.com. For Simon Hunter, I'm Chad Noman, download the podcast, Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get the podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, five stars. Say whatever you want.

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