The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Gambler's Guide To NFL Free Agency

Episode Date: March 11, 2022

NFL free agency kicks off next week, so Action Network's Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter welcome colleague Chris Raybon to the show to break it all down. We've had Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz make headlines this week, and the wide ripple effects of quarterback moves continues to be felt across the league. What teams are primed to make moves this offseason? Who are stuck in cap hell? What teams offer value to bettors at the moment, and where could we see movement? Together the guys discuss the league from top to bottom, and Simon offers some encouraging words on the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars' chances in 2022. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. it has been a remarkable 48, 72 hours, if you're talking about NFL quarterback musical chairs. Free agency is coming. Draft is coming. Super Bowl futures are shifting. Here to break everything down. Everything we need to know about how to make decisions right now in what is the most fun offseason for any league that there is,

in the best betting league in the world. Getting ahead of it now is all that matters. professional better, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, Simon Hunter, hold on Simon, plus my own personal nemesis from our show convince me every Sunday during the NFL season, Action Network senior writer. I hate saying it because he's probably one of our best analysts of anything, whether it's NFL, NBA, thinking logically, analyzing players, breaking things down, contextualizing, even though I kind of can't stand them personally, Mr. Chris Raybon.

Oh, I felt glad to be here, guys. I mean, that's an introduction. It was. I mean, you essentially were like, I'm good at everything except asking for a great job title. It's true. Maybe we should work on that. We should, man. Simon and I just had a, Simon and I just had his.

review yesterday, he didn't ask me for a new job title. Yeah, it's like it doesn't really mean much, I guess, like at the end of the day, but it's now like when you just introed me and you like stumbled through that, even though it was a great intro, uh, now I feel like we have to revisit. So I put that on the list. Call me after. You're a great negotiator. We can negotiate after the show. Oh, man. Simon. Dude, you come back from vacation and as soon as you get back, the NFL markets go crazy with quarterbacks making decisions. GM. making decisions. It's getting nutty out there. I know. It's a weird time, too, where it's like, I got to be doing my job and do football stuff, but I'm trying to watch

some college basketball just to get ready for March Madness. So it's like, I don't know, not the best time of year, but it's definitely most exciting. I mean, first, yeah, before we even get to free agency, the fans know, this is an Atlanta Falcons podcast. I got to hear about what happened. What was your day like when you heard about Calvin Ridley? Because Chad Millman, New York Times bestseller, the head of Action Network content, where you just just like, holy shit, because, again, this is before we knew it was 1,500. When I first saw that report, my mind went to the dark place. I was like, oh, my God, I've seen Calvin Riddley fixed games.

He doesn't fix games. He's just some idiot that's all promo from Caesars to get 1,500 embedded. So I would love to hear what you were thinking when this all broke. Yeah, this is crazy, right? So everybody, I'm sure knows. But it came out. It was reported earlier this one. week, this is Thursday, reported earlier this week, that Calvin Ridley, in November of 21,

bet on NFL games. That was the initial report and that he had been suspended for a year. And then the news came out. He had bet some parlays when he had taken a voluntary leave from the Falcons. He had done it through the hard rock in like the one month that you could bet online in the state of Florida. He did it. He used his phone. And the integrity programs, I don't say this to be like a stooge for the league and sort of the integrity programs through genius sports. But look, they have instituted these things because betting is legal, because the leagues are taking money from the operators, because they are in bed with everybody who's doing anything related to betting. And they need to be as above board as possible. They have talked about integrity from the get-go.

So Calvin Ridley used his phone and bet this parlay. And it immediately got flagged by genius and immediately got sent to the NFL. It was investigated. Now the guy is suspended for a year. Totally crazy that it happened, considering how much education is time is spent on educating players, officials, executives, members of every league office. about how you're not allowed to bet on sports if you were involved in these games. No, just NFL, though. Like, he could have bet college and he would have got his $11 million as a coming season.

It was just because, again, because he bet NFL, they don't care about other sports. Apparently, that's all they care about that. That I don't know. Like, it's to me, all the, they're all murky. Like, all the rules are murky. And, you know, I was on a panel on, in Boston on Friday at the Sloan Sports Analytics conference. And one of the panelists is from the NFL league office. And we talked about betting. And she was clear, I can't bet on sports, right? That's what she said. And so every league is different. And I've got

folks at the NBA, who I know, they don't bet on, they can't bet on sports, right? So it's all interesting and murky. That was a crazy day. And I feel like the story would have had more legs, and there may be more to come out, who knows. But the story would have had more legs if the next day wasn't Aaron Rogers. And the next day wasn't Russell Wilson. And the next day, as crazy as it seems, wasn't Carson Wentz. But look, this is going to be a thing. This is going to be a thing when betting is legal in every state. And you've got athletes with disposable income who think they can, it's not even about thinking they can find an edge. It's just what people between like 21 and 51 or God knows how old are doing now. And so it's introduced to more people.

It's one of the risks. And look, we're in the business. I'm obviously an advocate for the business. I want there to be a lot of sports betting. I want it to be as accessible to as many people as possible. This is one of the things that people are going to have to look out for. I'm just scared of. If it, if it's ever a quarterback, a referee, a coach, those are the big ones where when it was Ridley, I honestly wasn't that, I didn't think it was that big of a story. Like you said, I was kind of blown over because, again, I think we all sit back here and we all laughed about it because it's like, this dude was bet in 18 parleyes, five team parleyes. Like, the day we catch a referee or Aaron Rogers or someone betting 50K on.

on the other side of whatever game they're in through a proxy or whatever, if that ever gets blown up. Like, that's the story of theirs. I just think there could be more of the story because where there's smoke, there's fire. And let's be honest, his mental break, whatever you want to call it, voluntary leave, was pretty out of left field and super suspicious to begin with and just kind of mysterious. And so a lot of times when you get these big things that come out later,

like you go back and there ended up like, was, With something going on even before this, because the weave in itself was odd, you know, kind of like, you know, what happened with Gruden, where we heard this like one quote about that that happened with Gruden. It was like, oh, well, that's kind of messed up. But like, okay, like, he can come back from this. And then all of a sudden, like, it comes out after that that, like, all this other shit went down. We're pulling back the curtain a little bit.

You're saying what every reporter, editor, producer is saying at every. sports media entity right now. Certainly what we all said at action on Monday afternoon. You've got to frame it like responsibly, right? Because I think everybody in media right now has some kind of investigative reporter trying to unpack more about the Calvin Ridley story. And action's no different, right? We're reporting around it. We're trying to see like we're calling our sources and trying to see, I'm not giving away a secret here, like his voluntary leave and taking a mental health break and the betting, are they completely disconnected and there's nothing there or is there something directly related?

We don't know. Nobody knows. It's irresponsible to say that there is a connection, but everyone will look at that and say, okay, is that something to pull back? Is that something to dig into? No doubt everybody is trying to figure that out. Obviously, you know, it could be the opposite way around. It could be, did something happen that just made him not want to play football anymore?

You know, whatever he was going through mentally, could he have just kind of said, fuck it. If I get caught, I get caught. You know, because like even when if the news first broke, like, he didn't really seem to care too much. He was like, Jesse, I don't have a gambling problem. I just got a year, L.O.L. Like, he didn't seem too broken up about it either.

So, I mean, we would love to hear from him. But, you know, what we're getting from him, just it only lends fuels of the fire that he's not thinking about football the same way he was a couple years ago. I think that's fair. That is, that's a better way to frame it. There was a tweet that I saw somebody sent out. The NFL's team in Miami plays in a stadium sponsored by Hard Rock Casino. They take tens of millions of dollars from gambling companies. They have an investment in a company that is one of the leading data providers to gambling companies around the world. And one of the players, that's $1,500 on a parlay and get suspended for a year. And so, There's a lot of mixed messaging going on. NFL players should not be betting on NFL games. I think we can all agree on that. But it speaks to how challenging an issue this is going to be. And look, it speaks to the way in which the view of betting has changed even in the past 18 months. Six months ago, Draft Kings as a business was valued at $26 billion. Today, it's valued at $26 billion.

Today, it's valued at seven. The market, the frothiness of the market is changing dramatically every single day. The way that investors are looking at sports betting generally is changing every day. And so it's not just going to be, okay, here's a billion dollar opportunity for everybody to cash in on. It's more like, okay, what does this really, what does this business really mean? What is it? How are we capitalizing on it?

How are we protecting the players from it? how are people engaging with it. We're entering that. Everyone always likes to say we're in the first inning of sports betting. I feel like we're probably entering the second and third inning. And the middle innings are always the hardest. Yeah. All right.

Let's get to it because people do want to know. Here's the irony. People do want to know, what the fuck do I bet right now? What do I do with all the information that's happening? Forget about all the controversy. Aaron Rogers is staying with the Packers. Russell Wilson go to the Broncos. Carson Wentz getting traded to Washington.

Let's start with Carson Wentz. That was an interesting move. At most books, Washington commanders were 60 to 1 before the trade. They were 60 to 1 after the trade. One book moved it down to 75 to 1. We all laughed about it. Ray Bon, you actually had really good thoughts on why that might be the case. It was win-bed, I believe, that moved the odds down.

But I don't believe it was, you know, they were trolling or anything. I just think when you're making these odds, you're factoring. in, okay, they have cap space, they have assets. What can they do with this? You know, what quarterbacks are on the market? Who can they potentially acquire? We knew they were in the market for a quarterback. So I just think, you know, Carson Wentz versus, you know,

maybe a Deshaun Watson, maybe having those drafts, Jimmy Garapua, who was rumored to them. Russell Wilson at a time was a potential option even. So I just think, you know, they're factoring all those things in. And now that we know it's Carson Wentz and we know that they're paying him, all this money and we know that they gave up, you know, some picks for them. Now it's like, okay, well, now they're not as in, not as a good a position as it could have been potentially if things had broken a little bit differently.

Ray Bonn just recorded a two-part NFL free agency pod on the Action Network channel, Action Network podcast. That is all about your betting guy to NFL free agency in which you went through every single team discussing cap space, potential free agents. So you have never been more prepped to come on this pod and hand it, hand it to Simon Hunter. It's not a competition, Chad. We're just trying to give the people out here what they want. Everything's a competition. Oh, okay. I'm going to get you a minute. Well, look, like, but here's the point. Simon, do you want to weigh in on Carson Wentz and Washington and Washington commanders? Yeah, I mean, I'm pretty much right there with Chris. I

I look at it, though, it's great for Carson. It's his last opportunity. This is it. So, yeah, I might think it's a dumb move, and they're paying them a lot, way too much money. But at the same time, who the hell have Washington has their quarterback in the last 20 years? Nobody. So if Carson come in, they can spark something there.

He's playing his former team twice a year back in his old division. I like to move for a one year, you know, burner quarterback because it's just an awful organization. We've talked all the time. They're just their ownership's trash. Their fan base is giving up on the ownership. They're one of the worst stadiums in all football. As an Eagles fan, we go there and we take over it whenever we play them.

So it's rough times right now for Washington. But as much as I want to laugh and make fun of this move, I don't hate it. I mean, it's just like they're getting a guy who has tremendous upside. We've all seen these moments are brilliance, but he just mentally isn't there. So maybe they think they can change that. But to me, I just think it's a waste of a year as an organization because there's just nothing there for me. I think it's tough. It's also going because this is a great fan.

base. Like, it's a great fan base. They know they deserve better. But it's also a tough place to go. I mean, you know, the fans are going to be on you out here in Washington. I just don't think Carson's built for. I mean, I watched the hard knocks with the Colts. I got to see them up close. And, you know, they've been showing us every quarterback every year that's on that hard knocks. And you kind of get to see, you know, the level of leadership that's there. And Carson, to me, just didn't feel like a quarterback, right? Like, they're highlighting him and they're following him home and they're showing him at meetings. He just seems to me. And he just seems to me. And he just seems. like another lineman or something like, you know, like he just didn't have the personality of a leader.

And there's actually an article that came out from Zach Kiefer at the athletic that essentially said that since he walked in that door to Indianapolis, they essentially, people within the organization knew it wasn't going to work out. And it came down as leadership skills. And so I mean, he's a marginal upgrade on what they had last year. I think he could throw the deep ball better than what they had. and that'll help Terry McLaren, but ultimately, I just don't think it moves the needle. And I think, you know, having to play Philly twice a year, that's going to be tough. I just, I just don't think he's built for it, unfortunately. I do want to, I want you guys both to dig in on, like, where you're finding the best value now.

Like, Simon, you and I talked about this about a month ago. And at the time, you were all over the Falcons. You were all over the Ravens. And, like, I want to get an update now that we've seen some real things. start to change. But before we do that, let's examine, in addition to Washington and Wenz, let's talk about Rogers. Let's talk about him saying he's going back to Green Bay. Let's talk about what that gives them for cap space. And how does that position them in an NFC where quarterbacking is kind of at a premium right now? Simon, you go first. Right now, by the way,

the Packers are seven and a half to one to win the Super Bowl on fans. dual that is the second shortest odds after the Buffalo bills at seven to one. Yeah. So people listen to the show, I know I don't ever bet a future under 20 to 1, especially this time of year. It's just I rather invest my money and do other stuff with it than let a sports book hold it for nine months. So my advice to people is unless it's over 20 to 1, I just wouldn't make the bet.

Green Bay, that's an awful bet. I mean, excuse me, people last year gave a shit at this time of year because I said it was the stupidest bet you'd ever make bet on the Chiefs in Tampa Bay. Am I a genius? No, it's just like you're buying an inflated line. You're literally buying, like we talk all the time about stock market. You're buying at the peak and you're waiting to cash in in a long time where you wouldn't invest in the long shots that maybe you can hedge out of, do whatever later on.

And when I just look at that Green Bay line, it's just no value. Like 7-1, yeah, there might be three good quarterbacks in NFC, so maybe that's why it's so low. But man, every year, Rogers chokes at home, either on the road at home, whatever game it is in the playoffs. we've just seen it time and time again that he just choked. So to me, I just would not put the investment. If you want to bet them, just bet them straight when you get to those games. But I would not let a sportsbook hold my money for over a year on an investment of Aaron Rogers. So we've just seen it time and time again.

He just does not do it in the playoffs. Rayben, I got to think you agree there. Absolutely. I mean, this team is perennially overvalued in terms of their Super Bowl eyes. And I think Simon brings up a good point. So like I also and it's I think it's partly our fault too because we kind of feed into it. But like there's other odds you can bet besides just Super Bowl odds too. Like like if you want a better edge, like there are edges to be had this time of year.

But you know, depending on cap space and things like that, obviously it's you're still going to run into the same issue. You know, your bet's not going to cash for a long time. But like, you know, books have conference winner odds posted. They have division winner odds posted. Like there are other edges besides taking. one in 32, you know, a thing that's going to happen to one team out of the 32, you know, that you could still have some pretty good odds on. But, yeah, the Packers are way over value because this, you know, whatever the Rogers deal

is going to be, you know, they're going to have the least cap space in the league and by a significant margin. Now, so they're going to have to make some moves and shift some things around or restructure guys, but you might see some cat casualties there as well. I mean, both of the Smiths, they could save over $12 million, releasing both Preston and Zadarius each. So, I mean, that's, you know, is that on the table? Who knows?

But there's a good chance. This team might not even be as good as it was last year. Remember, they got the one seed last year, you know, the guys like Rassul Douglas, who, you know, are they going to be able to bring him back? Probably not. You know, guys like that, they were able to kind of get, you know, get lucky and kind of go on a run there.

And they, you know, they hold. their defense steps up and holds the 49ers to six points in a playoff game and they lose because they give it up on special teams. So, you know, are they, I don't think they're going to be better this year than last now. Tom Brady's not in the conference anymore, so that helps. But I mean, my goodness is, you know, if you're betting Packers, Super Bowl futures, that's a terrible bet. Just wait to the Packers play their home games and bet on them to cover the spread. They're like one of the only favorites that covers at home consistently. So just do it like that with Aaron Raj. There's no reason to

to bet them to win a Super Bowl right now. By the way, we think Tom Brady is going to be playing in the conference in 2022. We don't know that yet. We don't know that yet. Which could give you reason that you might want to get the San Francisco 49ers at 13 to 1. But let's talk about Russell Wilson. The team right ahead of the San Francisco 49ers at 13 to 1

are the Denver Broncos at 12 to 1. They shout up as well. that was a team that a lot of people might have backed into buying them because they thought that's where Aaron Rogers was going to go, trying to handicap the moves. They end up getting Russell Wilson. I don't hate, I know you don't like to do anything under under 20 to 1,

but like the Broncos, is it 12 to 1? It's not terrible. Yeah, again, I would just pass on it because like you just said, I just don't like investing in things like where you think that's good value right now. Just wait until the playoffs where they might be, a five or six seed like the 49ers were last year. We got them at 20 to one heading into the playoffs where at this time last year the 49ers were 12 to 1. And I just, that's my whole point. It's like you can invest your money now and something else. Come back later and take that money and then

put on one of these futures. So I'm looking at Denver as I feel like Chris will be the same page here with me. It's like I'm going to use their value being the shiny new toy and maybe get better odds on the chargers or the cheats and the chargers. That's probably where I'm going to go with my money because I do think Brandon Staley's going to learn from his mistakes last year of. You do, I love the, I love the aggressiveness, but there are times you just take the three. It's like mathematically, if it's two seconds left before half ends, you take the three there. It's not a field position game there. It doesn't matter if you get the seven or the three.

So I'm one of those where I'm going to bank on the chargers being better this year. They have more cap space. They'll improve while everyone's talking about Denver. Everyone's going to be talking about the chiefs. You can find value probably on the chargers. So that's where I'm going to put my money when I'm looking at this Denver thing. Raybine, you got so excited when he said that. Yeah, that's what kind of stood out to me.

And we talked about this yesterday as well. You know, the Chargers now are the third in third place in terms of the odds to win the division. They're plus, they're four to one to win the division. They are 25 to 1 to win a Super Bowl. and I just think those odds, you know, like that's one of those 20 to one odds that you say, okay, this could work because guess what? You have a quarterback. You have a quarterback and not just a quarterback.

You have a quarterback on his rookie contract. When did that work out in the past? Oh, right. It worked out last year with the Bengals, at least getting there. And that's also why I say you don't only have to do Super Bowl futures. You know, you could do a conference future. The charges of 14 to 1. That's pretty good odds even for, you know, to win the AFC.

and not only that, but the Chargers are top five in Cap Space. And they play in Los Angeles. So they're going to be an attractive destination for a variety of reasons. And a lot of people thought even last year that this team had enough to make a deep run. So it's like now you got over 40 million in Cap Space. You got a quarterback on his rookie deal. Yes, it's an extremely competitive division. But there's no reason that the Chargers can't be that team that, you know,

you know, wins just as many games as the Chiefs and Broncos and kind of, you know, they, you know, sneaks into the playoffs or whatever not. So I just think that the charges are a great way to kind of take advantage of Russell Wilson going to the Broncos because obviously, you know, that's, the market is all over that. Their odds are skyrocketing. I think they're in a great spot. I mean, I think they, they were a quarterback away and they're going to be, they're going to be right there this year. But the charges are really from a betting perspective that's how you bet at this time of year. Like, you know, like that's the value.

That's where you got to go. You've said this a couple times. I want you to explain it to people. A QB on a rookie deal. What's the significance of that? I mean, Kirk Cousins right now, for example, I just put it this way. Kirk Cousins is going to take up 22%

on a Viking salary cap this year. Carson Wentz is going to get something like $28 million this year. Like, quarterbacks, even average quarterbacks, are just drastically overpaid because they're still, you know, or maybe it's not overpaid, but they just cost so much money. So having a rookie quarterback that is good, he's got to be good, obviously, Herbert is, Burrow is, on his rookie deal, there's just kind of a cap in place to where, you know, you can only get so much money.

and so you're just getting ridiculous value. Even look at a team like the Seahawks. How did we get here? How do we get to the point where they're blowing everything up and moving on from Russell Wilson? Well, you know, their height of the Seahawks, everyone talks about the Legion of Boom. Well, yeah, it was the Legion of Boom

and the fact that they had Russell Wilson playing on a rookie deal, right? And then once they had to pay Russ, then everything around him went downhill and eventually he just couldn't, you know, carry that burden anymore. And it just didn't work. And that's kind of where, that's kind of why that rookie window is so important. So I love the charges because of that.

And then because of the fact that the Broncos now are, are kind of pushing the charges odds down a little bit. You know, I get it. It's all correlated. So it makes sense. But that's where the value is. Oh, and by the way, talk about 20 to 1 or better. Cincinnati Bengals, 22 to 1 to win the Super Bowl this season.

And the Cincinnati Bengals, because they have Burroughs, on that rookie deal, they have the seventh most cap space heading in a free agency. So, like, no one's talk about that. Like, the Bengals got to the Super Bowl probably should have won it. And they have the seventh most cap space. So, yeah, Bengals and Chargers, like, those are two teams. That's it for me. Like, those are teams that I think that if you're making a better than March in the NFL

because you're, you just got to get something down here, that's where you got to go. Simon, I know you feel differently about the Bengals. Me and Chris, we were doing so well this whole show. I hate the Bengals next year. I'm going to hate them all season. They're literally going from an injured Browns team to a healthy Browns team, an injured Ravens team to a healthy Ravens team. Yeah, maybe they'll get another walkthrough with Pittsburgh like they dominated him this past year.

But I just can't do it. I'm looking at a Bengals team that his first season, he tore his knee up. His second season, he partially tore his knee up, historically cheap owner who does not spend the money. So we could be sitting here. They may only spend $20 million of that cap they have because they have notoriously have a cheap owner. I just the Bengals reek of a fluke where it's like Joe Burrow, that was legendary. He's incredible. All their playoff wins, the Raiders, that was pretty fluky.

They almost lost their car on that fourth down. Tennessee Titans, they should have lost that game a thousand times older. Same with the Chiefs. The Rams won again. I'm with you on that. I thought the Rams were choking in that. Burrow hadn't partially torn at his MCL, they would have won that game going away.

They literally were dominating that ramp defense. As soon as he got hurt, he kind of could have moved in the pocket, and that's how they lost the Rams game. But I just, I'm so off the Bengals. And I hear what you're saying, though, like the rookie deal, I'm just, I look at it. They had their opportunity this past year,

and now they'll just fade away in the distant memory. Like Joe's always going to be good, but they just can't go on that run again. I feel like you're still salty from losing all those bangles bet. in the playoffs, man. I think you got to, I think you're just, you're betting with your heart here.

Because like, you got to look at it objectively. No, bro. We know, we know. No, but like, seriously, I just think you got to look at it objectively, though. It's like, yeah, most of the time,

you take a team coming off a Super Bowl, win or loss, and they're going to be overvalued the next year. But now you're taking a team that has a quarterback on his rookie deal that made the Super Bowl and that is 22 to 1 with, you know,

the top eight cap space. Like, that's just a good situation to invest in, like, in my opinion. Like, that doesn't come along most years. Like, and they don't have to spend all their cap space realistically. You know, you could, especially the way things are with offensive linemen. And, you know, we just saw a couple of decent offensive linemen be released, you know, heading into free agency. I mean, you can get a couple of guards, you know, for cheap on, you know, one, two-year

deal. Like, their window is now. They don't have to sign these, like, massive offensive line contracts. They don't even need, like, a Toronto Armstead to be honest. Like, you know, they just got to sign, you know, maybe a couple interior linemen in a right tackle. And, I mean, that's going to be such a massive upgrade to what they had last year. I just think, I just think it's a smart play because, again, I mean, it satisfies your criteria. It's greater than 20 to 1, quarterback on a rookie deal.

Like, that's just, I mean, like, they're right there with the chart. I don't see much difference between them and the charge. I think both of them are in that same boat. They're similar quality teams. Yes, their chiefs are better. Yes, the bills are better. But they're in the running. The books are telling you something, though.

That's what I love about sports books. They give you a little secrets. And they're the third highest pet team across the board for Super Bowl futures. And the odds have dropped. So there's obviously, like you just said, there's smoke, there's fire. There's someone knows something. Because it's interesting. Their odds have dropped, even though people have been betting them heavily

ever since the end of the Super Bowl. Hey, I mean, books are only so sharp. I mean, Chad just told you, Draft King's stock, like, is just, you know, plummeted over the past year. Not, you know, nothing against them, you know, but, you know, it's just like, listen, man, I tracked all the sharp action and all this stuff.

Like, sharps are overrated. Books are overrated. At the end of the day, you just got to make, you know, smart bets where you see value. Like, and I just think, I just think there's nothing that, between the bangles and the charges, given the quarterback situation, given the cap situation, and given the roster situation. I just think they're quality teams with quarterbacks on

rookie deals who have, you know, long odds that you could, like you said, you could, like at worst case scenario, right? Like they probably get into the playoffs and like you said, you can hedge it out. So I just think it's good value. College basketball championship season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduil Sportsbook. New customers can place their first college basketball bet risk-free up to $1,000. Bet college basketball any way you like. Tonight, I like Seton Hall catching points in Madison Square Garden.

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Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversation. with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations,

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Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring. Discover the Forest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. You know, there's a couple other teams that fit the criteria you guys are talking about. Teams with starting quarterbacks who have shown greatness or potential for greatness or have had some kind of success who are on rookie deals.

And what's remarkable is none of these teams are amongst the top teams with the shortest odds. Bill's not a, you know, Josh Allen, their cap space is, yeah, and their cap space is not. Cap space is wrecked. Packers, not on a rookie deal, bad cap space. Chiefs, not on a rookie deal.

Rams, not on a rookie deal. They're always trying to maneuver for cap space because they're just trading away picks to get star players. Broncos, now with Russell Wilson. Niners, Cowboys. Then come the Ravens.

Niners are interesting. I just wait, before you go on, just the Niners right now are over the cap. But if they trade Jimmy Garapolo, that clears up about 26 million cap space. That puts them above average in the top half of the league in terms of cap space. And they would have a quarterback on a rookie due.

And pretty much every quarterback they've put out there has like performed average or above average. Like even Bethard and Mullen's had like, I saw a tweet that like leaders in, I think it was yards per attempt since 2018. And like Betherd and Mullen were in the top half of the league along with Jimmy G who was number two. So like the Niners would quickly kind of ascend into that same conversation. It's just that Trey Lance still has a lot to prove I think is more the issue there. It's like whereas Herbert and Burrell have kind of proven themselves. to a degree already when Lance hasn't,

but they would kind of be that other team that's there. But their odds also reflect that. Yeah, I also, to me, I'm sort of slimming down the categorization to quarterbacks on the rookie contract who have actually succeeded at some level, right? And so in the NFL, Tray Lance hasn't done that yet. So to me, the Niners are not sort of befitting of your money

because he hasn't done anything, and their odds are too short. And they're over the time Brady, though. That's the time Brady effect. Like people like me, I put a dime on them just because just in case Tom goes there. Like I know it's a long shot. But I mean, holy hell, dude, if they got Tom Brady with that defense, that offense, that'd be crazy.

Can I get to my point, please? My point is this. The Ravens, 20 to 1, the Patriots, Matt Jones. Belichick being active in free agency. The Eagles, 40 to 1. And I'm going to put it out there. I'm going to put it out there. Okay.

Chicago Bears, 80 to 1. Justin Fields. Not crazy. It's not, it's not crazy. But let's talk about specifically the Pats and the Ravens, because I think those are more realistic, given the parameters that we're talking about. Lamar Jackson in the last year of his rookie deal. Simon, you go first on the Ravens.

Yeah, that's my, that's my shortest future odds I did. I just did the Ravens and the simple fact that they were so injury, so many injuries last year, we know they'll come back, they'll be better. They had their plan against an easy schedule just because they came in last place or second or last in that division. It's like, we talk every year. That's a big deal. Like who you're playing week to week. If you come in first, all of a sudden, again, you come in first place like the bangless did. That's a first place. That's tough to get the same type of seeding or the same type of wins to get that seating. So I'm just purely value playoff the Ravens.

It's like I'm with people. I don't know how I feel about Lamar. I don't know I'd feel if I was a Ravens fan about paying Lamar. But to me, this is the guy who was an MVP at one point. We know his athletic talent. We know how good he is in the football field. He's healthy. They're completely different team.

And no team had fewer losses by like a smaller margin last season than the Ravens. Like they're one of those teams that you put like flip a coin last year. could have been the one seed if they had just flipped a lot of those one score games. So I definitely like the Ravens is a bounce back candidate this year. Patriots, no real read on him on a set. I don't, I like what Mack did last year. We saw him hit that rookie wall. He kind of fell apart later in the season. And then they went to the, they went up to Buffalo and Josh Allen played a perfect game. So it's like Patriots, they're not as bad as they looked in that playoff games, but are they as good as they looked throughout the season last year? I don't, I don't really know what to do with them yet.

because, again, it's the Belichick effect. It's like, I want to fade them, but it's Belichick. I'm terrified of fading the greatest coach in football. So I'm probably not going to touch their odds, but I definitely will be one of those people back in the Ravens for a lot of next season. Raybound. Yeah, I like the Ravens more than the Patriots.

Like, I just think the Patriots have, they have a high floor, you know, a Belichick's never going to let them go, like, completely in the tank. And I think Matt Jones is kind of the same way. a higher floor quarterback, but at least I didn't see anything to suggest he's like, he's got that burrow ceiling. He's got that. And part of it is, I mean, you know, the receiving court drastically different. But I mean, I just don't see Matt Jones throwing for like, you know, 400 something yards and completely changing a game the way a guy like Burrow can or Justin Herbert can. So, you know, the Ravens, we've, and the Ravens just have all these intangibles.

I mean, Harbaugh has done a great job. They're going to like, as Simon says, they're going to get healthier on defense. So of those two teams, definitely the Ravens for me. I think they're another one. But even saying that, just to go, not to be that horse, but it's like both of the Ravens and the Bengals have equal Super Bowl odds. And forget what you think about the rosters and all that and what happened last year. But just going completely on cap spaces,

which is what we're kind of looking at heading into free agency, you know, saying a lot of these teams are kind of quested together behind the chiefs and the bills. the Bengals have about 35 million in Capspace. The Chargers have 42 million. The Ravens have about 16 and the Patriots have about 13. So you just see the drastic differences, you know, and yet these teams are kind of clustered together. But you just see the upside for the teams like the Bengals and Chargers

whereas like they're in this window now and they could get better now, you know, to a greater degree that I think the Ravens and the Patriots can just because of that drastic difference. So I just wanted to put that into some context. How much do you, Raybon, you guys do these two-part podcasts, and you're thinking about cap space and free agency and all this stuff, and you're incredibly well-informed today, and so that's impressive. How much are you thinking about draft positioning,

holes that can be filled in the draft, and where the opportunities down the futures board, whether it's Super Bowl, as you point out, but you don't have to bet Super Bowl. It could be division, could be conference. Are there teams that sort of in that 20 to one range and below that you look at and say, if they get the right draft position, the right player, that's sneaky and we should go get them now? Yeah, I don't really because for two reasons.

Number one, the draft is, I mean, obviously, if you just, you know, have, like, your team is gutted of picks. I think that could be an issue if you're not, like, in a win now window. But, like, look at the Rams. They've been fine. Broncos, you know, they gave a boatload of picks, but look at their team. Like, they should be good. But it's just, it kind of goes back to like when you're betting during the season and like somebody gets hurt. And it's like, okay, how much is you worth to the spread? Like, we know the only player is really worth anything of substantial to the spread or quarterback.

So that kind of feeds into their odds in terms. You're just extrapolating that in terms of their future's odds. And so no one player or even group of players is really going to change things to that degree. I mean, yes, Jamar Chase, for example, for the Bengals was great, but it's still about Joe Burrow. Like, it's still, you know, if they, if you don't have a quarterback, that's where a draft pick could change everything. But even so, like, then you still just have a rookie quarterback. So you're still probably a year away. So that's, it's not like a major thing. It's definitely something you're looking at more. So, you know, I think with maybe if you're betting like division, straight up like a division odds, you can kind of compare the four teams and how,

they all match up in terms of those things. But when you're talking about like Super Bowl futures, I just think there's certain teams that got it and certain teams that are a year away or more. And it's not hard to see the difference. I'm right there with Chris about that where it's like, as much I wish I could predict how these guys will drafts and how that's going to affect the outcome,

it's like, did we know that Jemar Chase and a kicker? We're going to take the bangles from never winning a playoff road game to a Super Bowl. It's like you just can't see these things come. And it's definitely, you definitely need the quarterback there. So for me, like Chad, you know a team I'm heavily invested in a second year quarterback is going to be the Jaguars. I love I love just really ugly gross teams. I know they have the quarterback potential.

They just need the coaching and to make the right moves or free agency and other places. So that's a team where if the Jaguars can nail this draft, if they can get a good offensive lineman or de-line with that first pick and then use their other picks that really fill out that roster, that's an exciting turnaround team because it's like the AFC South is kind of terrible. Not that I don't believe in the Titans, but Titans, when it Titans, I won three years in a row when that division of the Colts, we don't know what their quarterback is. There's a lot of unknown in that division. So for me, 120 to 1, 150 to 1 where you can get them at the Jaguars. That's a fun second year long shot where I could see their odds moving a little bit

after the draft if they really do draft the right pieces. That's disgusting. Why would you even say that? That's like saying, yeah, let's definitely bet the Jags plus 17. against the Texans in week 18. Terrible. Which teams are totally fucked right now? Like,

they cannot get under the cap. They're saddled with a quarterback contract that is going to screw them for the next 12 months, if not beyond Raybon, who is totally screwed? first of all we have to put this into some context like every like the packers for example have the worst cap space in the NFL right now but like they have Aaron Rogers every team can do what they need to do NFL contracts are so dumb like you can do what you need to do

to kind of get under the cap but with that being said uh I worry about the Saints I mean the Saints have the second fewest cap space and there's no quarterback to speak of like you know are you going to run it back with Taysam Hill? Like, what's going to happen there? Now you have this legal drama that popped up with Alvin Kamara. I mean, the Saints could be, like, they could win that division or they could be really bad. So I would worry about them because if they don't have one, like, when you look at some of these other teams that are in Capel, like the Packers, the Rams, the Bucks that don't have a lot of cats. The Chiefs are in the bottom near the bottom of the league.

Like, these teams are teams that win. I mean, if you just look at the bottom 10 in cap space this year, right now anyway, and this changes all the time. Guys, teams are making moves. But bills, cowboys, Niners, Chiefs, Giants, Bucks, Vikings, Rams, Saints, Packers. Almost all of those teams are very good. So the teams that you would say are fucked, giants, they don't belong in that group. Like, you know, for a team not to have cap space and have a roster that bad, not a good sign.

Saints for a team just lost their great coach and have no quarterback. For them to be that deep in the hole and not have a great roster, that's troubling. And then the Vikings kind of, you look at it and say, eesh, I mean, Kirk Cousins is taking up 22% of that cap. And, you know, you don't want to move them or anything because it's still having Kirk Cousins still gives you a better chance than not having Kirk Cousins, unfortunately. So like those teams. And then, you know, the Bucks, I mean, if they can't find a quarterback,

I mean, they still have a lot of pieces, but you're not going to win a Super Bowl with Blaine Gabbard. So I don't look, that's not a great situation either. But yeah, the Giants and the Saints really kind of stick out there. They're not in that same group. They should not be this far in the whole heading into free agents. Once the Giants sign, we talked about this last night at the Millman dinner table. Once the giant sign Mitch Trubisky and he proves that. that Matt Nagy was a fraud of a coach who coached the Chicago Bears into the bottom of the bucket.

And Trubisky gets his shot to become a Hall of Famer because he was not utilized correctly. The Giants, one of the most incredible turnarounds in NFL history. Yeah, I mean, I was good. I don't think you have to be too worried, Chad. It's his nickname was one read Mitch for a reason. And like the kid would make one read. If it wasn't there, he'd pull it down. So maybe he's updated and changed one year with the bills.

But I don't know, man. There was a reason all these teams didn't make him any offer last year and he was a backup for the bills, you know? It could solve two problems for the Giants, though. Like, if he really just is good under Brian Davel, and Daveo just somehow unlocks the best of Mitch Trubisky, not only do the Giants have a quarterback, but then they can move Daniel Jones.

to running back, and they'll finally have a running back because Saquine Barkley is apparently not who he was, you know, a couple of years ago, you know, just three hours in a crowd of dust. So, hey, you never know. Listen, here we are, just a podcast, just a betting podcast, solving all the problems of the NFL. That's what we do here.

You're not going to ask me if I'm down on, Chad. You're just going to skip over me like I'm a piece of meat? What do you mean? You didn't ask me who I'm down on. All right. Who are you down on? Oh, keep it, and your show. It's your Bengals. You clearly down on the Bengals.

You made that very clear. No, that's just bad doubt. Don't, listen, don't, you come back from vacation and like you're tan and it's like your whole body is sensitive. Not just, like just tell me who you're down on. Maybe, maybe I missed it. Maybe I got caught up in the Mr. Trubisky, euphoria. And I completely forgot to ask the follow up. Great job.

Go with. Echow. Check it out. And easy answer, Miami. We talked about it with Stephen Ross. They have so much drama. They're the team that they messed up the tank season. They didn't get Joe Burrow, who's looking like a Hall of Fame or two years in.

They didn't get Herbert because they passed on them for Tua. That's just, that's one of those teams, Miami. They could, if they struggle early in the season, they could fall apart quick because you've heard the whispers about them not really committed to Tua. And Brian Flores trying to get Watson in there. And now he's gone. They got the new coach in there who, he seems like a cool dude, but he seems like he is stoned 24-7.

Every time I hear this dude talk, I'm like, wow, that is the highest coach I've ever heard. So I don't know, Miami is just making me nervous because I love to bet on Miami, but they got drama and they might have whiffed big time on taking Tua over Herbert. Oh, they did. That's not even a might. That's a, I think it's already clear. It's not looking good. Nah, we could judge.

You got, see, this is the, you got like, listen, Burrow, Herbert, these guys, you know, it doesn't, like, we already see it. Like, it's like the best Tua could hope for. is to be like Jimmy Garoppolo. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like you put him on a good situation and he can almost get you there. Like that's all, and I was high on to it coming out, you know, I bought into, you know, leadership qualities and what he did in school.

But just watching him in the NFL is like, he kind of already know. And we should mention the dolphins have the second most cap space. So I think the real disappointment for me and is, again, you know, let the legal situation sound. but like taking yourself out of the Deshawn Watson running based on football reasons. Like obviously, you know, some people are going to say they have morals, this and that. But like if this man is available to play football, he is by far the best quarterback on the market. And I mean by far.

So taking yourself out of that running, and this goes for any team that's doing that. I just think you have to kind of lower the expectations because he's that one guy that all the stuff we're talking about now, he could change it off. He goes to one of these teams. Like that's the one guy that could change a franchise that's available or could be available. All right. Well, then let's end it like this, Simon.

Give me the team you would bet on right now trying to you handicap where Deshawn Watson ends up. Can't do it. I mean, I have no idea because I just, I don't think he's going to get away with it. I think he's going to get this year off. Like stuff's going to come out on court. The more I read about it, just like this dude had a problem.

Like, I don't know if he still has that problem, but clearly something's wrong with this dude in his head. So I just don't see him playing this season. I'm one of those betters where I'm off of Deshaun Watson. The more I read about it, I just don't think he plays this year. Raybon, thoughts. On where he's going to go? Like, what's his most likely?

If you had to handicap, you know, if we're playing quarterback sort of musical chairs here, if you had a handicap based on where everyone else has landed, like you said, the best player on the market, if you're trying to guess and say, take a flyer on a team, is it the Panthers? Like, how are you predicting where he ends up? I think the Indianapolis Colts. You know why? Two things.

Number one, after that Wednesday, they now have the most. cap space in the league, had it in a free agency. Number two, I always feel like when you have executives that are on a team and they're in a division with another player

and they see that guy twice a year and he has some success against them, I feel like they're always, it's kind of like scouts that scout a certain part of the country. So it's like all the guys they're kind of bringing you back and saying, we need to go get this guy

from obviously that region. So I just think Colts in the division. Now, you know, would the Texans trade in the division? Maybe not. But I could see it happen if they offer the right deal. And they have this catch space and the assets to kind of do it. And they're the team that every year quarterback for hire, Indianapolis Colts. So that would be my bet.

Nice you to take a stand on that. Simon was a bit of a coward. But that's cool. Damn, shots. Shots fired. All right. This has been the favorites. the volume podcast network for my co-host, Simon Hunter, for my nemesis, Chris Raybon, for our producer,

Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman, download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, five stars, say whatever you want. Until next time, love you. Look for your children's eyes and you will discover the true magic of a forest. Find a forest near you and start exploring at discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the ad council. What does the chicken say? Dog.

Cat. Giraffe. Giraff, really? Girat. A giraffe. You're not going to get it all right. Just make sure you know the big stuff. Like making sure your kids are buckled correctly in the right seat for their age and size.

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or subscribe to Navigating Adoption presented by adopt U.S. kids. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for kids. banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the Listen to Superhuman on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

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With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast.

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