The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - July NFL Mailbag

Episode Date: July 13, 2022

Baker Mayfield is now a Carolina Panther, and NFL questions have been streaming in for Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman and his pro gambler co-host Simon Hunter. So together they wade through questions about the Panthers prospects in the NFC South, MVP longshots, Patrick Mahomes as a poker player, the worst stadium name in the NFL and so much more. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. The Favorites podcast is presented by Fandual Sportsbook. There's no better place to make every moment more than with Fandual. I love betting with Fandul because they've got great odds and markets for MLB, PGA Tour, tennis, NFL futures, and more. Plus, their app is safe, easy to use, and when I win, I get paid out fast. If you're new, just download the Fandul Sportsbook app to get started now and sign up with promo code favorites so they know I sent you. you must be 21 and over and present in select states only.

Gambling problem. Call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 533442 in Arizona. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-888-8-9-7-7-77. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. 1.8777-7-7-0 stop in Louisiana.

1-877-Hope-N-Y or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York. Tennessee Redline is 1-800-8-8-9-9-9-8-8-8-9-9-8-2-2-4-7-0 in Wyoming or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milam and Chief Content Officer of the Action. network, big, big show today. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion,

my compadre from the fighting city of Philadelphia. Professional better Simon Hunter. Hello. Chad, what's going on, brother? Dude, I know you're not feeling great. You're a champ. You and I spoke over the weekend. You were working out.

You were running hills. You were in peak condition. one weekend on the shore. You're getting all that throws you for a loop. A little bit. When visited family up in Connecticut, they live on this lovely lake, was based on a boat,

day drinking all day. I got either sun poisoning or I was hung over. I woke up Sunday morning. Like, I literally couldn't get out of bed. I felt so weak and tired. And then, yep, I don't even know how to describe it.

It was just like 24 hours of hell. I woke up Monday morning. And I was like, I got to get tested for COVID. When it took the test, test a positive. They got your boy. chat again. I got COVID again. So yeah, luckily it's before football. I'm starting to,

you know, dive into football stuff anyway. That was kind of my last hurrah. So I don't know. It's kind of perfect timing. I'm trying to be positive about it. But yeah, it sucks. I feel like shit right now. You got to be positive. You got to be optimistic. The way you said, you got to be positive. You said hurrah right there. It sounded like Al Pacino from scent of a woman. That's what I'm going for. Well, gentlemen, when the shit hits the face, some guys run and some guys stay. What a sham. What kind of a show are you guys putting on here today?

We've got a couple things going on today. Two very popular segments are coming back. One, the mailbag. We've done the mailbag a couple of times, I think. The questions have been outstanding. And so people in the past couple days have sent in a bunch more questions, including some big media moves that have happened

in the past 24 to 48 hours, some player movement, how that's impacting odds, what we should be thinking about it for the NFL. Before we do that, we're going to bring back one of our brilliant, predictive analysts, Nick Giffin for the favorite segment of the fans. What are the odds?

Hey, Nick. Howdy? How's it going? It's good. I will tell you, this segment has become very popular. So I was out this weekend on a Saturday night. I was at a little bit of a shindig.

here in Weeha, West Harford, Connecticut. A buddy of mine came up to me and he's like, I listen to the podcast. That one of the odds segment is so good. And then he started talking about the last one we did about the two golfers who got the whole and one with the same ball at the same course on the same day. He like knew every detail. He remembered every number. He remembered the odds.

He remembered the breakdown because he was explaining it to another buddy. He's like, dude, you got to listen to this. You can't believe this segment. So I'm excited to bring back Summer's favorite segment of all podcasts, which is what are the odds? This is great. Oh yeah,

I love doing these. Well, what the hell am I to this guy? What am I even doing here, Chad? Jesus. What do you mean? What about my segments? Oh, my God.

Are you serious? Are you serious right now that like, you've blown up into a gambling cultural phenomenon and we have one segment that you're not the fucking centerpiece of and someone's not talking about you and they talk about the podcast.

And all of a sudden, you're whining about it? Yeah, I got a problem. Where's my story about this guy coming to you saying? I like your partner Simon more than I like you. That's what stories I want to hear from you, Chad, because those are my favorite stories. That happens like every day. That happens, honest to God. It happens in my own house.

I don't need to happen in parties I go to. No, I agree with the guy. It's my favorite segment we do. I love it because I love, I just love the stories. I love the math. It's the best. Well, look, there was that. And it's becoming more, more relevant, right?

There was the Andrew McCabe and James Coney from the FBI. Both were given these very sort of excretiating colonoscopy like IRS audits during the Trump administration. The New York Times upshot column did a data and analytical examination of what are the odds that these two guys would get this kind of audit? It was like I sent it to Nick and Sean Croner. I think the ads were something like $1 and $82 million, right? Yeah, just phenomenal odds there. So not impossible, but very improbable. You got to, it's something's fishy about it.

I'm just going to say something very, very fishy. All right. So this, this comes from a listener, a long-time listener named Josh. This is the European vacation edition. Here we go. A few years ago, I took a vacation to Europe by myself. It was the first time outside the U.S. One of the first stops was the Czech Republic.

My first night in Prague, the craziest thing happened to me. I checked into where I was staying in the center of the city that went out for dinner because I only speak English. I didn't bother to ask anyone for a suggestion on where to eat. Instead, I just picked a direction, started walking until I saw a crowded restaurant that looked like it had a good menu and I went inside. The restaurant had a capacity of about 75 people. I order a couple beers, some food.

While I'm waiting, a group of six people come in, sit down to the table next to me. Immediately, I can tell they're Americans. I start a conversation with them. At the time, I was almost 30, and in the group of people, and the group of people were all in their mid-50s. They tell me they just finished a river cruise on the Danube, and we're flying home out of Prague. They invite me to sit with them, and they ask me where I'm from. This is where things get a little crazy. I told him I grew up in Texas in the late 1980s.

One guy asked me where. I told him El Paso until I was about 10. The guy tells me he used to live in Texas and had to travel to El Paso for work. I asked what he did for a living and he told me he sold medical equipment for cancer treatments. I was stunned. My mother was the head of radiology at a cancer treatment center in El Paso. We also have an unusual last name to my knowledge. there are only 15 people with our last name in America.

So I tell him about my mother's job in El Paso. He naturally asked me for my mother's name. And when I tell him, he shouts, I remember Beth Butterwedge. The guy can't believe it. And we proceeded to call my mother from the restaurant and then reconnected right there at the table. It was wild.

That is the end of the story. Nick, I will ask you for the odds of something like this happening in a moment. Let me, of course, bring it back. back to me just for a second. When I traveled in Europe as a college junior went to Prague, one of my favorite cities in the world. It was beautiful. Great place to travel alone. I got to say, too. I laughed because this guy at the time was in his 30s, probably saw these people in their 50s coming off a river cruise. And I laugh because I watch a lot of PBS, especially loved

Downton Abbey. Laura Linney would always do a commercial and then a promo. And then there it would always be a commercial for River Cruises down the Danube. And I always say to my wife, that looks amazing. And she goes, that is for people who are so old. And so now I'm thinking about this guy, Josh Butterwedge. And the way he would perceive me is as a very old person who likes River Cruises. Nick, break it down, brother. All righty.

So we, unfortunately, I'm going to throw a lot of cold water on this one. It's not going to be as long odds as it may sound. first of all, all this boils down to is he ran into somebody that knows his mom. So that's what we need to figure out, right? I mean, that's what we need to figure out. That alone just sounds like you meet this guy at a party. He tells you this story. You're like, yeah.

So somebody knows your mom in the world. Big deal. Exactly. Exactly. Just because of the week we had, I really thought we were about that was Zach Wilson story coming here. Hey, oh. Oh, hey-o.

So here's the thing. He's, we don't have a ton of. details. We know he's in Central Europe in Prague, and this was not the first place he had visited on his trip. So there are some other variables like the length of time he was there, how many cities he go to, et cetera, that could affect this. But what we're going to stick with is, first of all, his mom is the head of radiology. That means she probably knows a lot more people than your average American. The average American knows about 611 people, according to a paper I found. And if she's in the 90th percentile for women, that means she knows probably 1,250 people. And that's like knows.

There are probably a lot more that she's met or things like that, which would go into the tens of thousands. But we'll stick with people she knows. Of those 1,250 people, they've probably taken about 1,600 trips to Europe in that year. A lot are in the zeros, but she's also in this demographic that is head of radiology. The sky is in sales. These types of people are taking one, two, three trips to Europe per year. So we actually average a little more than one trip to Europe per year.

Or I should say one trip abroad per year. 11% of those trips go to central Europe. So that gives us about half a person going to Central Europe per day that this person's mom knows. So let's just say he's in Europe for 10 days. that means two and a half mom acquaintances per day will be in central Europe. So if we take the central Europe population of 165 million, we can just say, you know, 200, 2.5 divided 165 million.

But that also would be only if you ran into one person. Now he's going around and, you know, it sounds like he was actively seeking out Americans because, you know, Americans sat next to me. The first one I'd seen, I went to talk to them. So let's say he meets, I'm just going to guess about 20 people per day over 10 days. That means he's met 200 people. So we need to take that 2.5 divided by 165 million and multiply it by 200. We get 1 in 330,000 chance that he would run into somebody who knows his mom.

But this is like our conservative estimate because if it was his dad, if it was his brother, his best friend, his significant other, we'd get this story as well. So really the one in 330,000 is like our longest estimate, but there's a lot of reasons it's probably even shorter than this. And Butterwedge is a German name. And Czech Republic is right next to Germany. So there's probably some underlying chop here. A lot of underlying chop factors going on here that would potentially shorten this

even further, you know, just things like being in similar social circles, you're more likely to travel abroad and you're more likely to, you know, travel to Europe. So that could influence the odds even more to come down from 1 in 330,000. I feel bad for Josh that he was living in this world before he thought this was an amazing, unbelievable coincidence. I feel bad for all of us that every single time we do this segment, I'm both amazed at the, math you can put into it that you've found a paper of how many people the average person knows and you're able to use that as the linchpin for the modeling you're doing. And also incredibly disappointed that some of these odds aren't longer and that the serendipity of the world

is ruined by the cold hard facts. Yeah, I'm Dr. Buzzkill, as they say. But if you think about it, I think our Rick Flair story ended up in the tens of thousands, maybe like 25. thousand. So $330,000 for this one kind of makes sense because instead of like going to New York during WrestleMania, this guy's just randomly going to Prague. So we probably expect an order of magnitude ballpark higher chances. So I think this is right in that ballpark. The crazy thing about things that happen so infrequently like one in a million or one in a billion is there's still a billion opportunities for them to happen. So eventually they do. Yeah. And that is my friends, where we bet big dogs. Exactly. By the way. Nick Giffin, another.

masterful performance for what are the odds, our favorite new segment from the favorites. Thanks for coming on, brother. Thanks for having me, as always, looking forward to the next one. Go Yard all summer long with $5.Dinger Tuesdays on Fandual Sportsbook. This season, all customers will get $5 for every home run hit by both teams when you place a $25 to hit a home run wager on Tuesday MLB games. And the best part about Dinger Tuesdays is even if you're bet, loses Fandual. We'll pay you $5 for every home run. This week, I like the New York Yankees at home

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in Connecticut 1-800-2707-117 for confidential help in Michigan. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-889-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, as promised, we're going into the mailbag. First one, number one, a lot to discuss.

Brian in Charlotte, Simon, we've talked about this a lot, but based on their offensive weapons and previous QB situation is Baker Mayfield, an enormously impactful addition to Carolina. or do I sound hopelessly naive? I have some very specific thoughts on this. All right, I'll keep it quick. I would say, no, that we know how it is in the NFL.

There might be 15 really good quarterbacks. The rest are kind of all junk and trying to figure it out. Apparently, Baker doesn't work really hard, doesn't study film. You're hearing a lot of bad stuff come out of Cleveland about him right now. So to me, Carolina, you're hoping to get a good draft pick next year. It's a really good draft class. Baker's a nice linchpin and it's also, you have nothing to lose. I think you guys give a fourth round pick, paying him $5 million.

Either he gets you in the playoffs this year and he earns a job or who cares. He's terrible. You move on. So my take on this is that it's not impactful for the offense, but I do think it's impactful for the defense. Because you are getting a quarterback who is better than Sam Donald, who will likely keep his offense on the field for another series or two per game that will decrease the number of plays that Carolina's defense is on the field. And to be honest, their stats last year were not very good.

But if you take them out of the context of having to play so many plays and adjust for that, their defense was actually much better. So their defense can improve just by virtue of having Baker being an above average quarterback versus Sam Darnold. That's my take. I would bet, I would bet Carolina over with Baker Mayfield. So I'm saying, six and a half. Corey and Quincy, Illinois.

Did you want to say something? I mean, it's too early. I'll get into it once it's August with you on that one. All right. Corey and Quincy, Illinois. It's July and Green Bay's Whiteout Corps is Alcorp is Alan Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb washed up. There's still minus 170 to win in the division.

Is the NFC North really this bad? Yes. I mean, the simple answer. You think you're looking at Green Bay the wrong way, though? They're moving into a position of, a very ball dominant team. They're going to run the ball, and they're going to play an amazing defense, and they have one of the most accurate, smart quarterbacks that's ever played football.

Like, literally this man does not turn the ball over. I know we can make it. It's a big deal. He lost Avant de Adams. Like on third downs, that's going to be a big deal, but I don't know. To me, it doesn't make, it's not that crazy. They're that number with what you're looking at offense. I just think they're moving into a different style.

It's a different time in Roger's career. So, no, it's a fair number to me. I think it's a, if I put it into my mind, model. I might have it at minus 150 and it's only bump at the minus 170 just because people have bet it up to that number. Would you, I know we've talked about this, Vikings value on them to win the division instead of betting the Packers? No, because I mean, I think the Vikings do have value, but they won't get a dime from me. I do like what they're, what I've read about the Vikings though, the new, like the new head coach plus 300 now and a fan do. It's,

if you do like the Vikings win this division. I just wouldn't touch it. I just think it should be closer, maybe plus 400 plus 450, just because Kirk. Like I don't care if they have this high flying offense. It's still Kirk Cousins. So to me,

we talked about it, Chad. I love the value on Detroit. You could have got them at, I think, 13 to 1, 11 to 1, now they're down to 9 to 1

on Fandul to win this division. I still think it's good value on a Detroit team that you can look on paper, guys, they actually have one of the most expensive offenses in all football. I know it doesn't mean much,

but at least you know, they've spent the money, they have the offensive weapons compared to this Green Bay team that they're putting their money into that defense after giving Aaron Rogers 50 million per year. Merrill 88. Matthew Barry yesterday announced that he was leaving ESPN. It has not been announced where he's going yet. Speculation, according to Andrew Marchand in the New York Post, is that he's signing a deal with NBC. Merrill 88 asks, is Matthew Barry leaving?

leaving ESPN a big deal, should I be feeling something about this, or either of you? Simon? Depends what Matthew means to. I mean, I love Matthew Barry for what he was, where, you know, I was just really getting into fantasy when I was younger. And I think it might have been 0708 when I was like getting out of high school. I found his podcast with the guy named Nate Rabbits, who he's a paper pusher over ESPN.

And I loved that combo of Nate Rabbits just shitting on. Matthew Barry because Matthew was such a cocky shithead, but it was just a really funny combo. Matthew, you know, and his prime was really good at fantasy. All these years later, yeah, I don't know if I would take all Matthews fantasy advice, but I think for what he's done for the industry, how can you not say he is the godfather of fantasy football in America? He changed everything.

He brought it to the main screen of ESPN. So, yeah, I'm a big Matthew Barry fan. Again, not for his advice, but for what he's done for the industry. I just think you can't talk. Fantasy Football in America without mentioning the magic talented Mr. Roto, Matthew Berry. So it's funny you mentioned Nate, who I've known forever. And when I was at ESPN and I first took over ESPN digital, Nate reported to me. Wow. And then he took on other roles and and bigger jobs within the universe. And now he actually has a lot of the, and then more, but my old job now is

Nate's job plus other stuff that he's doing. He is a weasel. He is a weas. I said he is a weasel. He did. That was his role on the show, right? Yeah. But look, Matthew Berry leaving ESPN is a big deal because of everything Simon just said.

He created the industry from a broad point of view. He pushed ESPN further into fantasy by force of his personality. and by force of the quality of the content he was doing, and by the audience he was gaining, right? Like the reason- Podcast, I mean, it was what, him and Joe Rogan? Like, I feel like there's no podcast in 07. I just think back to that time,

you download it right off the internet. There wasn't an app for podcast. And like, but also digitally, the audience he built forced ESPN to pay attention to it, right? ESPN now does fantasy shows on ESPN too. Matthew's got his own show on ESPN Plus. Like his column was one of the biggest things ESPN would do every single season. His podcast, most downloaded podcast, ESPN does.

Like, of course it's a big deal when a guy of that caliber of talent decides to leave what is the biggest brand in sports media. The flip side is the majority of ESPN's fantasy business is built through its product and people signing up and what they're doing in the fantasy app to manage leagues, to build teams, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. It's got a really healthy fantasy business that 15 years after Matthew was there, he's at the tip of the spear of. I think the fantasy business will end up being fine.

You know, the other questions that Merrill 88 asks are, should I be feeling something about this? only if you only want to go to ESPN to get Matthew Berry content. If you want to go to ESPN to do other fantasy stuff and you still want to get Matthew Barry content, look, it's not like 2007. You can get Matthew Barry through a newsletter, his fantasy life newsletter. You can get him on Instagram. You can get him on Twitter. Wherever he lands next, you will be able to get him.

So as a fan, you should be thinking, I'm still. going to get Matthew Barry. And he's such a nice guy. Reach out to him. I mean, literally that guy apparently reaches out to all of his fans. He's just a really good guy. So don't, you'll be all right. He's going to be around.

Matthew's not going anywhere. He's a Hall of Famer. It's true. Totally true. Tony Hawkeye is Akrishore Stadium in Pittsburgh now the worst name for an NFL field. Holy fuck, yes. I don't even know if I'm saying it right. I don't know what that is.

I don't know what this business does. It almost sounds like something you should see in the Simpsons or South Park. Yeah. I mean, for someone like me, I feel offended that they're making people that have dyslexia like I do. Even read that word. I can't read it. I mean, until Chad just pronounced it. I had no idea what it even sounded like.

It's Heinzfield. I'll call it Heinzfield. I mean, I probably called the new Lincoln Financial field. I probably called it the vet for a good 10 years before I started calling it the link, even at just as lazy. So I just think as fans were stubborn and it's hard to adjust to new names of stadiums. Frank Frank 20. Jimmy G will account for $27 million salary cap hit if he's on the Niners roster this season.

Handicap the odds. He's cut, traded or the starting QB for them this season. I would say handicap the odds that he's not on the roster versus on the roster. I'd put it at like minus 500 that he's not on the roster. I mean, you traded away multiple first round picks to move up to take Trey. Trey has shown you he's a great athlete. Sure, he's not the most accurate guy last year. He was a rookie.

Like it's really hard to go from D1A to the NFL. It's a big adjustment. So to me, they watch Trey Lance every day. It's kind of a thing where, you know, not that I'm saying this is John Lynch's job, but it's a big deal. like Jimmy G got him to an NFC championship last year. Again, that wasn't all because of Jimmy G, but he was a part of it. He made big throws down the stretch last year for them.

So I am all for shooting on Jimmy G just because I think he was always overrated, playing in one of the best run blocking schemes of all football. These are pretty good quarterback. They're making a big move here. They got to get them off the roster. They can't keep this going and think Trey Lance is going to lead this team where Jimmy's just going to be ahead of them right now. Jimmy's been in the league a lot longer.

He knows this offense a lot better. Like he's been with Kyle Shannon a long time. So to me, it just makes sense. Like you hear the Seattle rumors, you know, just anything would make sense. Even Miami, I know everyone's about Tua right now. Hell, we already read it's a make or break year for Tua in that town. I don't hate bringing in Jimmy G being a backup in that city for Tua. So to me, I just can't see him lasting on this roster headed into the season.

Yeah, I think minus 500 is actually the list. a little short, to be honest. Kyle loves him. That's my whole thing, though. Kyle, Kyle, like, legit likes Jimmy. Like, yeah, but they're just, they're not going into,

like, they're not going to the season with Jimmy G as the starting quarterback. Yeah. They're not going to go into the season with him on the roster. They haven't found takers for it yet. They're trying to avoid sending him to Seattle. So I think what they're really hoping for is training camp comes. There's always quarterbacks getting hurt.

And some team is desperate and they make a play for Jimmy G. once training camp starts. Dan underscore the underscore man. ESPN has a story this week about the Ravens, Calais Campbell, passion for poker and his participation in this year's World Series of poker based on just their public personas.

Who do you think would be the best and worst NFL poker players? Well, we all know the best liar is Aaron Rogers, so I guess you would probably be the best, right? I mean, that's a lot of poker. Like, you have to have a good poker face. He got us all. Like, none of us knew.

Like, he was so smart with his wording. So quick with what he said. Again, he got us good for, what was that, three months? So, yeah, I would say Rogers would be the best. Who do you think the worst liars? I guess he's out of league. I'd say Antonio Brown, though. Like, that man just had no off switch.

Like, he just spoke whatever came to his mind at all times, which is the worst thing to be in poker. It's hard to say who's left in the league that's still that crazy? That wouldn't shut up. I was thinking, I mean, I couldn't think of anybody now. I was thinking maybe, it's funny, you went to liars. I went to. Well, liars and smart.

Like, Rogers is, obviously, smart with jeopardy. My point is like, I immediately thought emotion in this spot. And so I watched the match with Brady and Rogers versus Allen and Mahomes. And Patrick Mahomes was like, so. cool and relaxed. He was popping open beers, having a good time, never sweating it, knowing he could just knock the fuck out of the ball

when he wanted to, was making clutch shots, hitting clutch puts. I also thought Aaron Rogers just because the guy seems to be unflappable, but there are moments where he gets too emotional and takes things personally. I don't think Mahomes does that.

And so from an emotional makeup point of view, it's hard not to argue Mahomes. And obviously we're just talking about quarterbacks, but in the moment, those are the people that need to have the ball. Mahomes, I thought about Brady for sure. Those were the two people

that I thought might be the best. The worst, I was also thinking emotion. And like, I was trying to think, for me, when you're thinking of motion, it always goes to wide receivers or cornerbacks, right?

Yeah, I was thinking of Miles Garrett. Like, he's the only guy I could think of that bashed, a guy in the head with a helmet. Like, who would lose their cool? Like,

that's what, like you were saying, like who's the craziest. But I couldn't get past AB. Like, AB, you don't get crazier. He's the craziest player ever. We've never had a guy take off their stuff and do jumping jacks and wave to people out the field like he did the Meadowlands. So it's just, A.B. is the craziest? I would also go with like, is it Jalen Ramsey?

Or is it a very sort of emotional cornerback? Eli Apple. Dude, Eli Apple was clutching and pulling and do whatever he could when the pressure got the worst. Right? Yeah, but I mean, France Damme, he's going against like the best receivers in the world. Well, he might be going against the best poker players in the world. Eli Apple versus Phil Ivy, come on. All right. Is there a player worth betting for MVP right now at higher than 15 to 1 odds? Let's see. We're talking about you've kind of missed a boat, buddy. We're like, you want to bet these things in February, March, April.

You want to get early jump on the books and you're projecting out. So Hertz, I think he was 80 to 1. I'm looking at Fandall right now. He's 25 to 1. That's tough. That's really tough. You went from 81 to 25 to 1. Trey Lance, 150 to 1, down to 60 to 1 at a lot of books.

Now he's down to 40 to 1 on Fandall. Again, you miss big numbers on that one. If we're just going strict value, you know, Lamar Jackson, 20 to 1, playing for his contract. He's already won an MVP before. That's a fair price for a 4. former MVP and a guy who had his team as a one seed last year before he got hurt and his team went one of four down the stretch. Again, that's the kind of thing you're looking for. If you're looking at short odds with guys who are bumped down a little bit just because people are low on them because of what happened last year, Watson is a really good one for that.

Where guys above them, you're not getting any good value on Justin Herbert, right? Like he's been bed up now. He's 10 to 1. That's no good. Russell Wilson, 12 to 1? That's too much for a guy that's never won MVP before moved all the way up there. So, you know, I've had a couple pros talk about Mack Jones. I like the way his body looks and everything like that.

I just don't know if Mac Jones has a weapons around him. Again, it's 40 to 1. That's good odds. He needs weapons, right? Like, who's Mac Jones throwing 50 touchdowns to when you look at that team? Like, that's what you need to do to win MVP in this league. Like, you got to be incredible. So to me, if I'm just going pure upside guys, you know, way down the list, me and Chad

talked about. I like Trevor Lawrence, 75 to 1. He's getting a whole new offensive scheme, number one pick. second year leap. I know it sounds crazy. You saw it happen with Patrick Mahomes, right? We saw Mahomes come in and be this incredible kid, one MVP, right? He was 50 to one that year. He won MVP for the Chiefs. The Yel Amar won his second year. He was 50 to one and that Ravens offense. So it sounds crazy right now. We're talking in July. That's what you're looking for. You're looking for a second, third year quarterback, the pop. That's that crazy long odds.

We've seen it happen before. So looking for some craziness. Trevor Lawrence, 75 to 1. If you're a Jets fan, I would not put a. single dime on Zach Wilson, but I get it. If you're a Jets fan, you want to believe in this kid. So to me, look at these really long odds because that's what you want to invest your money. You don't want these short odds. So the shortest I'd go, 21 to 1, a Lamar. 21 to Lamar. The Ravens still 21 to win the Super Bowl. I know they're getting a lot of heat, a lot of sort of smart conversation about them. I like your Jalen Hertz conversation as well. I wraps it up for this one, Simon. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network.

I want to thank Nick Giffin for coming on to talk about what are the odds. I want to thank Simon Hunter for battling his COVID, his sun poisoning, his hangover. I want to thank Matt Mitchell, as always. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate, review, subscribe, give us five stars, say whatever you want in the feedback. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite.

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