The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Episode Date: May 6, 2022

"The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports" is this Saturday, and here to help us bet on the 148th renewal of the Kentucky Derby is Action Network contributor and TVG reporter Andie Biancone. Action hosts Chad Millman and his pro gambler bestie Simon Hunter pepper Andie with questions about all the happenings at Churchill Downs, including the importance of post position, track conditions, and so much more. We hear her favorite betting tips for the Derby, including why a horse's post-race randiness can be an indicator of Triple Crown success. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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Call 1-800-next-step or text. Next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-117 for confidential help. Michigan, 1877-770 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-8-9-9-978-9 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. If you don't know, today is Wednesday. Kentucky Derby is on Saturday.

Today is one of the most critically important days in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby. Simon Hunter, my BFF, my companion, my compadre. Do you know what is so special about today? I don't, but I love talking ponies. So I'm excited to hear just whatever you guys are about to talk about with Kentucky Derby. I am going to ask our guest Andy B. and Cohn, Action Network analyst, TVG, analyst, She knows more about horse racing than you and I will know about anything in our entire lives. Andy, how are you?

I'm good. Let's not get crazy now. I'm just, you know, out there shoveling poop at the end of the day. That's my main thing. Well, explain that to people because, like, you know, there are going to be people who know you from what you do on TVG. There are certainly going to be people who follow the podcast and follow. your stuff on action. Like, explain to people your background, what you actually do day to day and how you got into it. My dad is a third generation horse trainer from France and me being his child. They got roped in at a young age. You know, I've been riding horses since I was seven. I started

working for him and galloping race horses maybe four years ago. And I've been his assistant ever since. I went to University of Florida, but that didn't last very long because I got just You know, the racetrack is just, the racetrack is my home. And I recently started working as a reporter for TVG and helping them handicap. And my job for them really is to look at horses. They want kind of like a horseman's eye brought to the handicapper side. So that's kind of what I do for them. That's fascinated to me because thinking about what a trainer's life is and thinking about

working at the track and being in the in the paddocks and all that kind of stuff. It seems the way they portray it in the movies and in books to be incredibly romantic. Like it's lovely and you're working with animals and you've got a six sense for communicating and you're magical in the way that you can intuit what other beings and other. entities need, walk me back. Is it not romantic? What is it really like? I'm not going to lie. I do have quite a few sea biscuit moments every now and then, but I am a very romantic person. So I do like to see, you know, those moments like, I don't know, when I breeze diamond wild on the grass before she ran in the jestamine, I literally almost started crying. And I was like, this is,

this is a sea biscuit moment. You know what I mean? But, you know, the day today, it's, not an easy job. We get up. We're there every day, Christmas, New Year's, four o'clock in the morning, cleaning stalls. Everyone helps out, you know, like, as an assistant, I got to help my grooms out as much as I can. You know, we work as a team and, you know, getting on horses who aren't always the most cooperative, you know, they have each horse as an individual. They have personalities. They're, they're stars, you know, they're athletes and they know that it's all about them. And, you know, sometimes they just want to drag you around the track like a rag doll at 4 o'clock in the morning when it's 30 degrees at Keenland and you can't feel your hands and they're burning a hole in your legs. And, you know, but it's all that hard work that makes the moments when they win so special that makes you ugly cry and just have those sea biscuit moments.

Listen, I know what it's like to have to carry petulant talent that just think they are everything. I'm looking at Simon on the Zoom right now. I was going to say, I thought she was going to say, once you get over the smell, it's a pretty good gig. Because I've been to a couple horse tables and you have to get adjusted. Once you do, it's not bad. But that first waft when they open up that barn door into the horse table, oh my God.

It really does hit you in the face. See, I just feel like I don't even notice that anymore. I'm like, I think I've been smell like that all the time now. Like that's just a part of like a personality trait at this point. horse poop. It's just... Oh, that's good if keeping guys away. They go to the bar covered in a horse poop. I mean, that's a good way to deter the guys away, isn't it? Perfect. It's the best.

Andy, I open the show by saying that today is a very critically important day in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby. It's known around the land as Whisper Wednesday. Whisper Wednesday. And generally, what that means is that on Wednesday, sort of after the horses have been in Louisville and running the track for a few days, the handicappers and the trainers, they all start to get a real sense of what, who's got a good shot, who's running well. They start lining up sort of what the circumstances on the track might be with the qualities and traits of the horses that are going to be running in the race.

So as Whisper Wednesday ends, what are you hearing about the horse? horses that have performing well, that have been performing well as we headed into the race. I've heard nothing but good things about all the contenders. I know Crown Pride, the Japanese horse had an incredible work today. Worked to half in 46, which was, I mean, looking at this horse's form, he just doesn't seem like he's fast enough, if that makes sense. Like his times, he's just not as quick as these other horses. But when he won in Maydan, that track was extremely slow, extremely sandy, and he was able to power through that. And Japan has been on absolute fire this year.

So that's just something we have to consider, right? Horse looks incredible and seems to be taking to the track well. Obviously, we're going to have sloppy conditions on Derby Day, I think. So that is going to be, I mean, as usual, right, but that's going to be a huge factor in terms of numbering these horses down to who's serious and who's not. Who else have you heard about sort of as the week has been going on? I mean, it seems like those Pletcher horses are all doing well. I mean, I'm excited to see how charge it has developed because I remember when he

debuted at Gulfstream and I saw him in the paddock. I said, this is Todd's Derby Horse 100% out of Ironworks, Emmanuel. This is, this one is the Derby Horse. And then, of course, he got beat by Volcanic, but he had like a horrible trip, like volcanic just kind of pressed on him the whole way. He never got a chance. then he came back in, I think what did he do? He came back in one impressively by eight and a half.

And then when he ran into the Florida Derby, I feel like, I just feel like this horse tries so hard. And in the stretch, people were saying he was green, but I think he just got a bit tired. You know, it's really difficult to break your maiden and take that step and going to Florida Derby, and he still showed up. So I think he's at 20 to one,

a very serious horse. If I tap it, you know, he should have that, should take to that sloppy track really well. You know, you mentioned, form, and we talked a little bit about, you know, is it going to be muddy on Saturday or what is the weather going to be? Forget about sort of the training on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday at the derby. What are you looking for when you're trying to handicap horses in the derby in the lead up,

in the months leading up to the race? You know, there's so many factors go into it, right? I mean, this particular derby is going to be very speedy. We have a really talented, strong group of front running horses. There's so many of them. It could set up really well for a horse to close. Obviously, epicenter has been a horse that has, I mean, it's crazy because I've never actually seen epicenter in real life. But every time I've watched race replays of him, he just stands out. It's like if all the horses were words on a page, epicenter would be like bold, but he just looked physically outstanding, even on, you know, my phone, like on TV.

So I've always thought that was a very serious horse. But then going into this race, there's going to be a lot of speed going to the front Zosos. I know it's probably just going to try to attack him. And you've got classic causeway. You have a lot of speed. So if Epicenter doesn't relax, like if you can't settle, and it's especially more difficult our horses to settle on a sloppy track because they're hearing the clacking,

clacking and sometimes courses just get like freaked out by that and they don't breathe you know what you want these courses horses who are front runners it's best if they can get to the front get a lead and just like relax and chill up there but if they have horses constantly in contention with them up front it's like they run their race too early if that makes sense so you know a lot of what I look for is how these races can set up and what advantages some of these horses will have over the others based on their previous form. And also trends of improvement. I love to look for trends of improvement.

A horse like simplification, for example, it's a really nice horse. And I remember he, from when he ran in the Holy Bowl to the Fountain of Youth, he physically developed so much. Like that is such a good thing. I haven't seen him recently. So I don't know how he's doing in person right now. But that horse is just a little bit inconsistent in his numbers for me. you see he in his numbers he'll run higher ones like he run a 91 after the Holy Bowl and the 96 in the found of youth and then 92 in the Florida Derby. That's not really, I don't like to see that

as much as I like to see a horse like Xandon who is like consistently running a higher number slowly every time he's running a little bit points higher. I think that's something to look at. Another horse who's like that is cyber knife. I don't know if he's, you know, Arkansas has been extremely weak this year. Like horses who've been running at Oakland, they come to Keenland and they've just not been running. Like turfway form has been stronger, particularly at Keenland, than Oakland form. So I just kind of, it goes to show that Oakland has been very weak this year.

But, you know, nevertheless, that horse has been consistently improving. So that's very interesting to see going into this race. So there's two things I want to follow up because I know Simon wants to ask a question, but you mentioned a couple of numbers there that one of the horses like 92, 95, 96. Explain to people what that means because a lot of people who are listening to this won't really understand sort of how you look at numbers and what some of those numbers mean when you're judging a horse. Okay.

So there's, I mean, numbers don't mean everything, but they're definitely a good basis. Basically, after a horse runs, they get a rating on their performance based on the conditions, the type of trip they had, you know, the how they performed and they get a grade, like a number grade based on the performance for buyers, which are on the racing form, the higher number, the better. But then there are some other things like magazine sheets, there are a graph, like those you look for lower numbers. But the racing form uses buyers.

So that's kind of what we go off here and, you know, higher buyers are better. And it's kind of, it's interesting to see a trend. like trends in buyers are very interesting. You want to see, like I said, improvement is great. Sometimes if they run similar numbers in a row, they'll like run a next best number. And then sometimes they'll bounce. Like if a horse has just been running like consistently high buyers,

like sometimes they'll just bounce. Like if like they will regress suddenly because they've had so many good races in a row type of deal. The biggest horse race of the year is quickly approaching and you can bet the Derby risk-free up to $200 with TBG. That's right. New TVG players can get started with a risk-free bet up to $200 on your first single-horse win wager.

That means you'll get up to $200 back if your horse doesn't win. The TBG app gives you all the tools you need to bet the derby. You'll get access to free picks, analysis, and wagering advice from industry experts. Personally, I'll be betting Epicenter to win. The Derby is coming up this Saturday, so don't miss out. Just sign up with promo code volume for your chance to bet risk-free up to $200 exclusively on TVG.com and the watch TVG app. Remember to use promo code volume to sign up. Age and residency restrictions apply.

New users only refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires after 30 days. Visit TVG.com for offer terms gambling problem. Call 1-800-522. 470. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont.

Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The second question I want to ask you is thinking about sort of post positions, do you look at certain post positions as being the most advantageous, specifically when it comes to the Kentucky Derby? Absolutely. I would hate to be on the far outside. I feel a bit, it's a bit unfortunate for horses like Weta Barrio. iron knife, classic causeway, all those. It's much more difficult because think about it to get over

to the rail. That's already you have to exert yourself a lot. But then again, being on the inside isn't particularly advantageous either because you have the pressure of a 19 horse field. For example, being in that one hole, that horse is going to feel crowded. Like imagine sitting on the window seat of a plane, but having like 19 people next to you. You know, it's a little bit claustrophobic. I was a little bit disappointed to see Modanical drawing the one hole. I was like, dang, that's such, that's disappointing. However, Modanical has drawn one multiple times. He's drawn one in the, in the wood memorial. He drew one in the remsen and he's won both of those. So if any horse can handle that one hole, it's probably him. But that is also, you know, a tough spot to be in.

best place to be in a big field like this. I mean, probably, you know, charge it is in a great position. Sanden, excellent position. Even the 12, Taiba is in a good position. At the center being a speedhorse, I think three hole could be advantageous for him because he doesn't, instead of needing to break and make a big move, he can just kind of break and send and kind of just get where he needs to be. Um, yeah. That's great. Yeah. Chad knows I love drama. I love drama, not my personal life, but in sports, I absolutely love it. And when we talk horse racing, I just keep thinking about Bob, Bob Baffert, where I know that the, like, I'm assuming the horse racing world open, welcome on back with open arms, but he's definitely tarnished. Like, again, I'm a follower of racing where I follow the big events.

When I thought of him, I thought of like he's, he's the top. He was like the Michael Jordan felt like a racing. Now, how is he viewed in the racing world? And especially is he, is it that a lot of people still talking about it? I mean, a year later, are people still bringing it up now at racing events? Absolutely. It's a very big deal, you know, a lot of, we uphold this sport with a lot of integrity. And it's important for each of us to do our part as trainers, as assistants, to uphold that integrity.

And I don't know, you know, if his actions were just, more repercussion of negligence, you know, like I feel like he maybe just wasn't cautious because there's rules, okay? There's medication rules in racing what he got caught for, Bannamethyone. That's a perfectly legal substance that, you know, we use when we inject joints, which is like getting an oil change. The horses need an oil change in their joints, even like hunter jumpers and stuff like that, or sport horses. They need that extra little help sometimes to help them, you know, perform better, more comfortably to just help them. And it's perfectly legal, but not 14 days in within a 14 day period of running.

Because within that 14 days, that could be like performance enhancing as opposed to just helping them, aiding them in training. You know what I mean? So he kind of obviously went within those parameters in some way, whether he knew it or not. And that's like a, you know, he definitely needs to be held accountable for that. You know, you have to do your job as a trainer to pay attention. So if you're negligent in this score, like you unfortunately, because you're the representative of that force, of that barn. And you have to be held accountable.

So you've got posts on Action Network in the app, Action Network.com. Run down as we're sitting here Wednesday night, who your predictions are for the top three spots in the Kentucky. Derby. If we are betting the Derby, who would we take him? So hard. I wish I could do a top four. Do a top four. Okay. All right. I'm going to go Zandon, charge it at the center and Taiba. And how would you place them? I mean, I've been so high on epicenter this whole time, but I just feel like it's too good to be true and that he's going to bounce. I feel like he's just a very consistent horse. you can't knock, I mean, any of these horses, you can't knock their consistency. I could see charge it, taking a piece of it.

I could see Zandon winning the thing, honestly, because he's a deep closer. There's going to be a ton of speed. During the Keenland meet, I actually did post-race interviews on a pony for TBG. And when I interviewed Flabian Pratt after winning, after Zandan won the bluegrass, Zandon tried to mount my pony, like he was. And you think after winning the blue horse, progress, you know, he should be tired. Like horses after they run, they're like tired.

Zandon was like, oh, hey, cute co. Oh, hey. I was like, oh, my. Yeah, so that's a really good sign because that shows that that race didn't take anything out of him. And he beat a very salty group. He galloped out incredible. It's like, I mean, Flavion could barely pull him up.

He wanted to go another lap. And I think that is an extremely good sign. Zandon is three to one right now. Epicenter's seven to two. Those are the two favorites, as far as I can see, as we stand Wednesday before the race, obviously because of the way horse betting works or petting on, you know, parametral betting works. Like these odds all change dramatically.

And whoever, you know, Cyberknife right now is 20 to 1. By Saturday, if more people start jumping on that particular horse, it could be going off five to one, four to one. So just because you get the good odds now, it doesn't mean it's going to stay that way. But I'm going to pressure you here. One horse who's going to win the Kentucky Derby. You gave me four. I felt like that was a nice way to transition into asking the harder question, which is give me the one.

Pressure. No pressure. A lot of pressure. There's a lot of people that listen to this podcast. And if you get it wrong, they're all going to remember. Like gun to my head right now, right? Yes. I'll go with Zandon, gun to my head.

Zandon, gun to your head. Zandin currently three to one. Gross. The favorite. Yeah. That's the matter? Like the best pick is the best pick. Now I know what I'm going to bet.

I love horizontal wagering. So I love Xactos. I love picking horses underneath. You know, I think there's Zandon in the top spot and using another horse underneath. Even Kizabom is going to be an interesting horse. I know, like, on form, he just really looks like a grass and to peat, polytrack kind of horse. But fun fact, I think, like, 70% of Kentucky Derby winners or something have turf pedigree. And if a turf horse is going to take to any dirt surface, it's the Churchill Downs dirt surface, especially sloppy, especially, I mean, on Derby Day, they make it wicked fast anyways, but in Slop, it doesn't really matter.

And he's won in the slop. He broke his maiden in the slop. by four and a half lengths. So I like that nine post position. He's a little bit of a, I don't know if, I mean, mentally, I saw him when he won the bourbon and he like broke through the gates prematurely and he was a big handful. So he's going to have to mature a lot mentally to handle the derby because the derby

is a lot for these horses. You know, none of these horses have ever run in front of a crowd of 200,000 people and they feel that pressure and the slop and it's a lot to ask really and only a true champion can handle everything thrown out them on that day the trip it's it's a very serious race and it's i'm feeling like the sea biscuit moment but it's just thinking about it i'm so excited well that's a great way listen the way you framed it you can feel that even when you're watching you know from Connecticut or Philadelphia, 6.57 p.m. Eastern post time. It is truly dramatic. There's so much pageantry. It's so much fun. Andy B. and Cohn, you can find her stuff on Action Network. You can

find her on TVG as an analyst. You can find her in the paddocks at 4 a.m. every single day. Thank you for coming on the favorite podcast for Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, rate, review, subscribe, five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an

Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast. The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled of conversations

with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app,

Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.