The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Mailbag Episode Part II

Episode Date: February 23, 2023

Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with their mailbag episode's second installment. This time they tackle the LA Chargers, beloved aromas, and so much more. Plus, we learn the sport Simon would devote his life to betting on if football went away. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorite podcast presented by Fanduel. The NBA season is kicking into gear and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandual. I love betting with Fanduel because their app is safe, secure and easy to use. And when I win, I get paid fast. Plus, Fandual lets me jump in on the action anytime with live betting during games. So download the Fanduel app today to start making every moment more.

Must be 21 or older and in select states. gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Orr slash chat in Connecticut, 1-8109 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-0 stop in Louisiana. Gambling help.org in Maryland, 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York, 1,800-2-2-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, from the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Milman, Chief Consent Officer of the Action Network. It is Thursday. We're doing your questions. We did it on Tuesday. We loved it so much. We're bringing it back. Don't forget. Love the favorites as much as you can on Apple Podcasts on Spotify. Favorite it, follow it, subscribe to it on those platforms. I am joined to answer all of the most important questions that you have. If you remember on Tuesday, we were talking a lot about aliens and quarterbacks.

Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference. My BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How you doing, brother? I'm ready to dig in, man. I am ready to dig in.

I feel like our listeners had a lot of really good questions, a lot of really important questions. I think we answered them as well as we possibly can with authenticity, credibility, and earnestness. It's true. And this is it for you. Next time the people will see me on camera, I will be clean shaved with barely any

hair left in my head. This is just for when I head out to the National Park, so the Grand Canyon and the Zion National Park. I don't know if you saw this, Chad. I'm driving into a blizzard this week. Yeah, I did notice that. I noticed that the weather is looking spicy and spicy for your cross-country drive. Not a good drive to have a M4 convertible in, but we'll make it work. We got the horsepower to get through it. You know what? In your world, it's always sunny. Just keep the top down and people will look at you're like, I want to know what this guy knows. And I'll say neck warmers. That's the key of these new convertibles.

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Simon. We did not get to all the questions. So, here's the first one up. It's off-season. You're going to start doing some work. You start thinking about your power rankings. What are the most important elements in your power rankings? And this is a good pricey to the next question I want to ask.

what's the most important elements of my power rankings um that's hard because it's different between in season and out of season i say before the season it's really basic i literally just look for team strength and weaknesses and you know i talk all the time i start with the o line i start with the d line start with the quarterback next i go to head coach which obviously you know i talk all a time that's a big deal of people like the head coach in football there's a reason there's so much turnover and the ones that last tend to be really really really good at their jobs i mean as much shit as people want to give tomlin in pittsburgh because he hasn't really had that much playoff success the man every year gets that team above 500 like that's got to account for something so

yeah i would say that's a little tough just because it does change in the season but i would say definitely if you're looking just bare bones i keep telling you guys a nauseam that o line d line thing is a big deal. And coming to the year, it saved my ass. Like, I was all in on the Eagles and the chiefs because I had them as my two highest grade at O lines. And, you know, it's not always going to be that simple. But I'm telling you, more often than not, it's going to matter. And my biggest lesson I'll ever, ever learn was when I first started out, my first year was that Patriots, Giants, Giants, Super Bowl. So what was that 2010, Chad? 2011. I forget what the hell it was. 20, 2009, that first, no, yeah, or 2012.

Yeah. Or yeah, whatever it was. I just remember that was really an aha moment of, you know, how much of a difference a game wrecking front floor can make. And, you know, got lucky throughout the years with that. I won big on that Denver versus Carolina Super Bowl. Same exact thing. I just banked on a good defense.

So, yeah, if you're looking for important elements to grading the power rankings, I would say that don't just blindly just do it off the quarterbacks because that's so. chalky. Square. Yeah. Square. It is.

Because there's just so much it goes into it. I mean, we talk at the time. Mahomes is the unicorn. Like you don't really get that kind of thing where he was, we can easily say, he was the main reason for that Chief Super Bowl run. I mean, their first game, they won by a touchdown, the second game they won by a field goal, and they won the Super Bowl by a field goal. It's like you got those kind of close games.

That's usually because the quarterback's that good to keep you in it. I feel like that's why we all knew. Burrow was that guy. I mean, that playoff from they had, every game that kept winning by three points. That's how you know, that's how you know you have a guy. It's like this guy, when it gets really tight, can make those moves. And to me, you can't really find that building a model. So if you're looking for things like that, those are things I look for in quarterbacks. I want quarterbacks that can win really tight games. That's a really big deal to me, a quarterback that doesn't get tight, he can play free and loose. So if you're looking for different

elements, head coach, all offensive line, defensive line, and quarterback. Obviously, Those are my bread and buttons. Those are the most important things to look at. That's a good answer because we've got a question later on about a very specific head coach and how he can impact gambling. What I would say about head coaches, just to lend some context to this,

is over the years, professional betters would always say Bill Belichick was really the only head coach that had any kind of impact on the point spread in a positive way, right? Like you would give you. give him an extra point because of the way he could game plan and the way he thought about the rules. I don't know that there's a coach today that you give that point to when you're power rating

as opposed to you just want to think about, all right, this is a guy who has an advantage when you're handicapping. The flip side of that is I know a lot of wise guys who used to take a point away from the chargers because of the way Norv Turner, the former coach there, used to coach the games. So I just think that's interesting context, Simon. Yeah, I would say there's certain coaches as a dog where I give them a point. Like, if Shanahan's a dog, I give Shanehan a nice bump there. Like we've seen it time and time of game.

Shanean as an underdog has been profitable. Same with Doug Peterson. Doug Peterson as an underdog has been profitable. So there's certain coaches where I'm right there with Chad where it's like nothing's like Belichick. Belichick, I don't want to say he was free money as an underdog. But he was. Like there was a run there where, you know, Brady was either out for injury or he was out for deflategate.

And I think he was an underdog in every one of those three games or four games. And I think he went three and one in those games, Belichick with the backup. So it's just one of those where Chad's right. Like I know plenty of pros. They just, you know, they went six and three betting on time in the Super Bowl. So they were happy with the results. They just blindly would take Belichick and Brady in those runs just because they had that much respect for him in his game planning. because we saw it time and time again.

He's just, when he was on top of his game, Belichick, there was no better defensive mind in football. What are the three most important things you look at when handicapping in an NFL game? I'll take this one first. I'm curious to see if you are thinking about the same things. But I am looking for, do I immediately see an edge

in a short home favorite or a home underdog. I immediately look at where the market is and do I think there's going to be an advantage. And I also try to incorporate what happened the previous week, which goes into both of those things, but I try to let that be something that has a pretty powerful influence on how I'm thinking about handicapping a game. It's almost, to me, it's entirely perception and market when I first look at it.

Yeah, that's tough. I mean, it's, I don't know, because it's not like three things. Everything is kind of unique and different. Every scenario is unique and different. So my most basic first three things you look at, I don't know, man. Again, I'm trying to grab my head around. There's just so many different things. Like Chad just said, like,

There's some games where I don't even need to run my model. Like, literally the team will get blown out last week. Now they're coming home playing a team that beat the crap at some team last week. And there are seven point favorite on the road. Chad knows the deal. Like, I'll almost blindly always take that underdog. Right. But I think that's the question.

Like, that's how I looked at it. Yeah. That's how I'm answering it. Like, you and I, you and I look at the board every single week. And, you know, in the fall, we're going to start doing episodes on Sunday nights as soon as the late games are over. And there might be some lines posted that we'll have some early opinions on. Right.

But by Tuesday, we're looking at the board. We'll have been looking at it for, you know, say 36 hours by the time we do the podcast. Yeah. And we know it without having done any modeling. Yeah. Which games we like. And that is entirely based on the market. Yeah.

So I would say like that's obviously an important thing to look for. But I would say for, you know, just. just starting out for people, I would look at the public what the public's doing. Again, I don't blindly do it, but if you find yourself in line with everyone else on a public side, you know, that's an issue. You got to start checking those things where I told people in the playoffs

is different. I don't mind betting with the public in the playoffs, but during the regular season, there's certain times where I just won't touch a game. Even if I like that same side, I'll just either play the other side or I'll just stay out of it. So for just starting out, I would just, say try to learn that, try to learn that of, you know, again, you don't blindly fade the public,

but you don't want to be on the public side all the time. If you find yourself on the public side all the time, you got to redo your model. Like something's clearly wrong in your model because me and chat, talk about time. A lot of time I find value is, you know, a team will be as low as it's been all year. And that's peak value in certain teams. So for me, for the most important things you look at when handicapping, I tell people to start there. And then also, you know, go through trends. So, like trends, once again, I don't blindly bet off it. I do think they're very important to betting. Like trends can kind of help you make a mindset of how you think the game's going to play out.

And it lets you stay away from repeating the history. Again, people get in trouble because they keep repeating the same history over and over again. Trend's going to help you stop that. Like if you kept liking fading the Eagles in the first half and then you realize, well, the trend says they're 5 and O in the first half, that's pretty easy. You just stop fading the Eagles in the first half. So that's one of those where I don't, I'm talking about the biggest trend, I need to look at trends. I need to make sure I'm checking the trends because sometimes it can save you from wasting a lot of money thinking you know more where, you know, trends tend to be pretty right.

Like things are what they are. That's why they're trends. So again, not one size fits all, but I like to check trends before I make bets. Trends are trends for a reason. Cliques are true for a reason. There you go. When, let me scroll down, you know, Matt Mitchell put these all together in a very, thoughtful Google Doc.

But one of the questions that is lower in our doc is about Sean Payton. And we were just talking about coaches, Belichick, Tomlin, Norville Turner, right? Shanahan. You and I both love Sean Payton. We talked about the Broncos in our futures podcast right after the Super Bowl. Love them. Massive impact. I mean, the question is how big of an impact?

act gambling-wise, does Sean Payne's return actually have? Huge. It's like going from, again, I hate shit on people's cars, but it's like going from driving to Kia to a Lamborghini. Like that last head coach, we all saw the first game of their season. Again, I wasn't trying to be an asshole. I just said that was fireable shit. This guy didn't know how to handle the moments. And we saw a playoff for the rest of the season. The guy just was not meant to be head coach. He might be a great offensive coordinator. He just doesn't have that part of his brain that can work to be an ed coach, which is you're calling the plays, you're doing all this other bullshit.

But in the back of your mind, you know you have three timeouts and there's three minutes left to go. And you have to make a plan on when to use those timeouts. That's all real stuff. Sean Payton, to me, he's everything I love of a head coach. This guy is obsessed with football. And he's so fucking smart. Like, one of my favorite Sean Payton stories ever was that bounty gate. Remember he got kicked out of the NFL for a year or two?

Yeah. He went to coach his son's high school team. which I think the previous year had two wins, they went undefeated and they won the state championship. So it's one of those things where it's like, this guy is really smart at taking what he has and making a system around it. I think that's what he'll do here where,

you know, all that BS we heard. Russell Wilson had his own people in the building and his own nutritionist was in the building. He wanted the time Brady treatment. That's why I love Sean Paine. He's going to come in there and he's going to be like, dude, I was the one that I brought you here to Denver. Like, I could care less.

This new ownership ain't the one that brought you. here to Denver. They could care less by you too. If you wanted me to get the little bit of ounce of talent out of you, you're going to shape up and listen to what I have to say. I think that's what Sean's going to do right away, where he's going to go and he's going to kick a bunch of guys' asses. That's a team with a shitload of talent. So that's why, you know, coming into Denver, their biggest weakness is still to me their offensive line. I think Peyton, the mind he has, he'll be able to scheme around that. So, you know, if I was going to actually put a number on it, I would give them an extra one and a half to two wins on Sean

Peyton. So say I have the top five quarterbacks, I mean, not quarterbacks coaches this year. I'd still put Belichick one, put Andy at two. Maybe I put Shanahan, even though Shane has no rings, I still think he's that good. I put him at three, McVeigh of four. And I would, honestly, even with the years of miss, I put Sean Payton at five. I just think he is that good of a head coach. So, yeah, I think it's a big deal. Like you got to get it all right. All these things need to line up. You need to get the quarterback and you need to get the coach. And I think, think at this point they have the coach for sure in Denver. I just don't know if they have a quarterback. That's an interesting discussion. I would also add, I can't argue with your

top five. You know I love Shanahan and think he's brilliant. Yeah. But I would also put in there John Harbaugh. I would put Dan Campbell. I would put Dayball in there. I would put Tom in there, that's nine. And I put Vrabel in there, that's 10. Yeah. I'd also have to put in Matt Eberflus. Why?

Because the way he allowed the barriers to look competitive, but was still smart enough to lose 10, 11 straight games to end the year and end up with the number one pick, that is Machiavellian. It's true. Don't sleep on. Listen, everyone says, don't sleep on Iber flus.

I completely forgot what that guy's name was until you said. So that's wrong. Eber flus, remember the name, my friend, Simon. Remember the name. I agree with you on Peyton. Love the guy. Yeah. Here's an interesting one.

A lot of football questions, but I think this is a really important one. It says a lot about the person you are, how you approach life. we had a lot of that in the previous podcast. If you were perpetually surrounded, before I get to that, let me just say, I do think answering the question about whether or not you believe in aliens says a lot about who you are.

Yeah, it's true. And I'm glad that we were aligned on that question. So this is another test of our relationship and our compatibility. If you were perpetually surrounded by one aroma that you and everyone around you could smell, what would it be? It's tough because I know you eventually will hate it. Like my first thought was bacon, but then it might ruin the smell of bacon for me.

But I have a really weird thing. My favorite smell ever, this is weird as shit, is fresh off the ice hockey pucks. Like, you ever catch one in the stands when they're doing the warm-up shots and stuff? No. I used to huff them, man. It's like pure rubber. Whatever that smell was, I loved it as a kid. Now I'm older.

I don't smell hockey pucks anymore. But, yeah, Simon from 8 to 12. that was my favorite thing about America. You catch a hockey puck in the stands. I just huff that bad boy, the whole game. So I don't know. I'm trying to think what weird ass smell I would like forever. It might be that rubber.

I just used to love the smell of hockey pucks. You are a freak. Yeah. I know. It's the most random thing. That is the most random thing. Like, you could say, you could say citrus. You could say vanilla.

You could say a fresh pine. I did straight. Like when I did dip, I did straight, which is like the old man dip. There's no smell to it. So I'll let you know we're on that with aromas. Like I just like it bland.

See, I was going to say like the smell of the forest on a camping trip when you first wake up. I mean, if we're going to do that, I would say when I step off an airplane in Hawaii, that's the greatest fucking smell ever. Or the redwoods in California. But no,

I was sure. I find a weird object, Chad. Give me something weird. You like to smell. Like, you like, you like gasoline. You a gas huffer? I don't mind gas. I mean, I'm very, my wife will tell you, I'm very olfactory sensitive. Like, I walk into a room and I like can smell immediately if something is off and don't like it. I do, you know, it's like, I like, like, you hate potpourri. I hate pulpery. Yeah. Hate, hate, potpoury. Can't, can't do it. It makes me sick to my stomach. Matt Mitchell is weighing in and he says the answer is cedar, the world's greatest smell. That would make sense from a guy who basically lives in a cedar basement in the middle of Wisconsin.

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but here's another fun one. If you could only bet one sport for the rest of your life and it couldn't be football, what do you choose and why? Oh, like I'm living here in America my same exact life. Yeah. You're thinking soccer. Yeah, if I was overseas, I'd do soccer. But because I'm in America, I'm just doing baseball.

Like, I love my favorite thing about baseball is all the numbers with it where it's like, if you build a model, you can find the huge edges in baseball because it's, it's every day. And basically, I know a handful of pros that they might hit 40% for the season, but they're up a shitload of money just because they bet underdogs all season. So, you know, baseball is the grind of grinds. But I just, I used to be, that used to be my thing. Like, I used to be obsessed with fantasy baseball when I was really young.

As I've gotten older, I've kind of phased it out. Like, I'm still a Phillies fan. I just don't have a model build or anything for baseball. like I get my picks off the guys in my groups or Sean Zorilla, our guy. So, you know, to me, if I had to do one sport and the same thing where football, you know, I just do nothing for seven months. Like I can do that with baseball. Like just literally going to a hole after pitchers and catchers and I come out of the hole in November.

I can do that. So I guess I'll go with baseball. I would bet first five in baseball. I wouldn't bet full game in baseball. I would, my answer would be an. era and a sport. So if I could bet one sport forever and it couldn't be the NFL, I'm betting late 90s college basketball and I'm probably betting like the extra games that Richie Bachelary posted

at the MGM. So when I was writing the odds, my best selling book about guys who've been on sports for a living when I spent six months in Vegas tracking these. guys. And Alan Boston was the professional better who I profiled and he was the best college basketball better in the world at the time. And I'd be with him on a Saturday, full day on a Saturday, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. West Coast time. And, you know, he's literally betting millions over the course of the day on college basketball. But the MGM and the books then, they, you know, you could find some really good opportunities because if you were focused on college basketball, especially October

November, the books just couldn't be sharp. Like, you know, Ken Palm was barely a thing. If it was a thing at that point, I don't think it was. And so the books were so focused on baseball, NBA, college football, NFL, there wasn't an opportunity to really make great lines for college basketball. And then Richie Bachelori took it one step further. and was posting lines like Patriot League lines that nobody else was posting and was taking big, big limits. Like he didn't give a fuck. And so you could go in and just clean up on those games.

And he didn't care. He's like, this was old, end of old school Vegas where bookmakers were gamblers, right? They weren't, they weren't sort of considered to be the arbitrage experts that they are now. they weren't trading floor analysts, right? They were bookmakers who were thrown up lines, letting wise guys come in, pound him into shape, taking big limits, and letting the chips fall where they may.

That's what I would bet, and that's the era I would bet it in. Can't argue with it. Doesn't that sound nice? Yeah. You know, like back then, the Stardust, which is the book that I profiled and the bookmakers were Bob Scucci and Joe Lupo.

and you know they'd have a line out the door at 8 a.m. for from wise guys to bet the opening lines for college basketball. They weren't betting them offshore yet. Like it was just starting to become a thing. So they would just line up to get like the freshest lines. It's like lining up to get the best fish at the fish market at four of the morning. It was just fucking insane. I wonder how you would have done back then.

If you would have liked it, like before, I know you lived in Vegas, but like before you had the advantage of technology and all these kinds of things, I would say, I would definitely say I would have gone broke easier. That would be the damn truth where a model is a nice crack. I can line my model up with a bunch of other things. I can line it up with the old school guys who are like, I tell you chat all the time. There's guys who walk outside, you know, and their mustard stain tank top. and they'll look up in the sky and they'll be like, you know what? Today I'm betting the Knicks and the Knicks will win by like 30. And I'm like, how do these guys do it with no model?

But they do it. They got good source and everything like that. So I would say back then it would have been a different type of work where all you're doing is talking to sources and you're talking other pros. You're trying to line up with all them where nowadays, you know, you got models. You have trends, all these other things where pre-internet, there was none of that. I mean, bet labs. I can't imagine my life without bet labs, Chad. So I would say I would probably would survive, but I would be miserable.

That would be a really tough life to live. You know, it's funny. You mentioned no internet. There's the old school stories about Lem banker who was like one of the original old school professional betters. He would go to the airport early in the morning in Las Vegas. And as the businessmen flying into Vegas on the first flights out from the East Coast would throw away their newspapers, he would grab. have the sports section from the garbage and start reading it to see if there was any edge he could get on the games that night for lines that were just being posted, you know, 10 a.m.

noon in Vegas. Alan Boston, when I was doing the book, he used to call the scorers tables for schools on the East Coast and say it was, say it was, you know, St. Joe's Villanova playing at Boston college, he would call the scores table of Boston College and say he was the reporter for Villanova and asked the scores table, like, who's going to be playing, who's in the lot, who's practicing right now, who's in shooting drills, all those kinds of things, to get the latest in the lineups that nobody else was getting. Like, you had to hustle.

You couldn't just go on Twitter and follow every beat writer. Yeah. You get an answer. Those are harder days, really harder days. One of our, two more questions. One of our favorite teams to bash this past year were the Los Angeles Chargers. Somehow, Staley kept his job, but Joe Lombardi, the offensive coordinator, got fired. The defensive coordinator, Ronaldo Hill, just left to take a job working for the Miami Dolphins and his old boss, Vic Fangio.

Brandon Staley remains. Do we think these are improvements? Are we just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic? Kellyn Moore is the new offensive coordinator. I saw all this and I thought starts at the top. It's the same coach. The rest of it's not going to make a difference. Yeah, it feels that way.

It feels like it's also an owner kind of being cheap. Like the owner should have let this guy go, ate the money, hired a new guy, but he isn't. And no, it sucks. If you're a Chargers fan, you have the dream scenario. You have the all pro quarterback. on a rookie contract. And what did we just see?

We saw Joe Burrow, same exact draft class, make it to a Super Bowl. You saw Hertz, same draft class, make it to a Super Bowl. We've seen two a struggle. We've seen Herbert struggle. I mean, Herbert, he doesn't want a playoff game yet. This is year four we're heading into.

So I feel bad for Chargers fans. I'm not even to try to beat them up, but yeah, I'd be pissed. It's like, that wasn't Herbert's fault. They let the Jaguars come all the way back in that game. And that was the head coach's fault. And the head coach is the guy that runs the defense as well. So not good.

But, you know, I'm trying to be positive because it's Herbert. Like Herbert, he's so good. But I think we're all at this point now where he's looking like a damn arena. Like all the town in the world, I just can't see him winning in the Super Bowl as is. So that's the fear right now if you're a Herbert fan or just a backer. It's like kiddos is all the town in the world. It might be like betting on the Cowboys when it's a super bowl. Super Bowl. It's just a dumb bet. It's just a team that they might have all the hype.

They just won't get there. But I'm not there yet with this Chargers team. I feel like, and maybe this is a bad move because I was so in on the Chargers two years ago. Yeah. I was in on the chart to win the Super Bowl. I was in on the Chargers last year to win the division. Although I don't think I was in on them as much as I was in on the Broncos. Yeah. The Chargers, I just, Staley's one of those. coaches to me where he hasn't proven it enough for me to believe that he can do what he needs to do with Justin Herbert. And like, if I'm the Chargers ownership and I wanted to win, I'm like, fuck it, Sean Payton's

available. I got a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback here. Get me Sean fucking Peyton and let me fix this. Yeah, like I was going to say, I didn't watch much of Mojomes' parade speech, but I can tell you 90% of it was directed towards people like Chad, which was, you know, Mahomes lost Tyreek. They're in a rebuild year. Denver's probably the best team in that division. My home's was firing away on all those people. So that's definitely one of those where I'm with Chad where it's like, I just don't want

to be burned back in this Chargers team again where they're in a division with Mahomes. Last question before we get out of here. I am very excited about the NFL draft. I've been reading a lot about it. The Bears have the number one pick. What are they going to do? it's a couple months away. Still, we've covered it a lot on the favorites podcast.

It's become a big betting event. When does NFL draft betting season heat up for you? I say this with the last 24 hours, a shitload of speculation and market movement on Will Levis to be the number one overall player taken. And that's all this time of year is where it's like, you know, That kid will, you talk to anyone that watches college football.

Apparently that kid is not that good. Like, nothing about him screams good. But to me, that's irrelevant. You're looking for a body type and a style. And what would you rather have, people? You want to have a great college quarterback in Baker Mayfield or you want the kid from Wyoming and Josh Allen. So it's just like, I say it all the time.

Like these kids, people, especially people watch college football, I think they know shit. It's like, dude, definitely. NFL, this ain't no little boys league. This ain't no little kids playing like college football. This is growing man shit with growing men have to play a sport where you're going to be taking hits. So, you know, I'm not here to shit on him, but Bryce Young off my board. Like that kid, I might take a mid-second, you know, take a flyer on him, like a Jalen Hertz type. That kid don't have the body for this league at all. I just cannot see him last in his league. Now, he might

take a shit ton of weight gainer and do whatever he needs to before the combine, that kid to me will not last in this league. He just doesn't have the body type for it. And it's like trying to have to put these guys into a box. But there's a reason that, you know, Kyler Murray's been hurt a lot. Lamar Jackson, he's had multiple years now. He's been hurt. Again, these are guys who are smaller, good athletes. Roy Shung ain't no good athlete. Like, I don't think this kid's going to run under a four or five. He's just, probably one of the smartest quarterbacks I've ever watched on tape, and he has a credible arm.

So to me, I get why Bryce Young still is the number one pick. I got no issue if this kid Will goes number one, or the kid I love, Anthony Richardson, goes number one. It's just like I'm trying to project out. Like, that's my job right now. Like, me and chat talked about, I don't know if I talk on the show. I'm actually working for an NFL team this year and doing stuff for the draft.

I've sent them a little notes and stuff I've taken right now. I'll really dive in in a month. This is kind of, as a pro better, this is kind of like our little break here. So basically, I'll chill right now. I mean, I'm a workaholic. I've been doing the draft anyway. I just love watching film. I start now, but I'll say most pros, you know, like say I got, I don't know,

I might have eight people now working underneath me. I had three of them working on the draft since December. So that means they're watching tape, they're running notes, and then they're matching up with teams where we're going to be able to find value betting on the draft come draft season. me personally my biggest thing I study is the quarterbacks like to me that's the moneymaker um i mean we just talked about Herbert i gave out Herbert to win rookie the year in 19 to 1 so like did i really think Herbert was going to win rookie the year this first year no i just thought this

kid has crazy amount of talent and then i got lucky with you know tyrod taylor got a needle to his lung and then Herbert was in the rest of the year so you need a little luck with these kind of things and i'm kind of in the same spot here of i don't really like price young I don't like his body type. I got major questions with CJ Stroud. And again, I watch this kid Will. I don't think he's good. I really don't.

But he's got the body. He's tall as shit. He's like, what, 6, 4, 6.5 with an absolute incredible arm. And, you know, there's just a little things like that. So, yeah, it's, if people are doing draft prep now, like they want to do it as pros do, I would say try to make a big board in a way you think the draft's going to play out

but in the back of your mind, no, the Bears could trade that pick next week and then it's all going to be thrown to shit, right? It's all going to be chaos if they do trade that pick. So this year for right now, I haven't made too many bets yet on the quarterback position, but one thing I did,

I gave it on the action app was I bet Anthony Richards to be the first quarterback taken at 40 to 1. It's down to 20 to 1 in most books. So I think other people, point in the same line of me of this is a good QB class, but I don't know who the best quarterback is yet. It's the same thing of that year of Baker got taken at one. I did not see that coming. I really did think it was going to be Sam Darnold. And then a day or two before, the word came out

that I was Baker. And it was a mass panic. I got Baker at a plus number. So I think we might be in the same situation now where for months it's been Bryce Young as the number one pick. I think that's going to flip in the next couple weeks as we get more combined tape and other stuff comes out. Listen, for every Josh Allen, body type, prototype, there's a Mitch Trubisky. Yeah, that's fair. But Mitch only started for one year. That was, again, that's a big red flag, played one year at UNC. As a reminder, it is the NFL offseason.

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Simon Hunter. This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman for Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell. Download us on Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate review. Subscribe to the favorites on those platforms. Leave us five stars. you want feedback is a gift.

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