The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 1

Episode Date: March 16, 2022

March Madness is here! To celebrate, Action Network's own Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter go through every game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with the help of their colleague BJ Cunningham. In this episode, they go game-by-game through the Thursday slate, touching on every matchup from a betting perspective in order of tip-off time. Is Colorado State live? Is Baylor worth fading? And how confident should gamblers feel about San Diego State? All this and more, followed by our Part 2 episode giving all of Friday's games the same treatment. So sit back, listen up and enjoy the Madness! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content, Officer of the Action Network, It's March Madness Week. There's no reason to delay. It's March Madness Week. We're going to have on BJ Cunningham. We're going to break this down into two parts. First part, part one, all the Thursday games.

Second part, part two, all the Friday games. Listen to them consecutively. Listen to them one at a time. Listen to them Friday first, Thursday second. However you want to do it, whatever you want to do, BJ Cunningham, our college basketball expert for the Action Network, who joined us last week for conference tournament podcast predictions is on the podcast today. As always, my partner in crime, in happiness, professional better, my BFF companion,

compadre, Mr. Simon Hunter. Chad, I'd be a miss not to bring it up before we dive into basketball. A lot of stuff's happening with football this past week. A lot of people reaching out to us. I get stuff wrong all the time. Can we not take a little victory lap on Tom Brady? We from day one, both were like, I don't know.

We didn't really think Tom was really committed to the retirement. And did I swing and miss on that to Sean Lotz and stuff? I did not think he was going to get out of that. And he will be picking a team between the Saints, Carolina, as we're recording this, either the Saints, Carolina or the Browns, which is actually a pretty sneaky team because it made sense to me. They would send him to NFC. So football, never-ending news cycle, chat.

It's crazy, like trying to keep up with everything. What I love the most is a couple of weeks ago, we had Ray Bun on, and we went through all of our favorite futures and the best way to bed divisions or conferences and teams we were thinking about, really focused on teams from 21 and longer. And we all settled on loving the Chargers. I bet the Chargers that day, 25 to 1 here in the state of Connecticut, two hours after the podcast was released, they trade for Khalil Mack. And they've since signed J.C. Jackson.

And all of a sudden, while the AFC West and the AFC is a brutal, conference. Chargers are in play. Like they are a really good team. No, and I've had a couple pros text me, Iron Sharpen's Iron. Just about same thing with the Rams last year. Rams were in a division with Arizona in a division where, you know, 49ers, they might have stunk to begin the year, but to end the year, they're one of the toughest teams in all football, NFC championship, and it being the Rams versus the 49ers, it's like, again, I get people get speak to about these good divisions. I love it. So I love the Chargers. They are really taking, taking what we talked about, they have a bunch of cap space and they're using it.

So Chris Raybon, who he loved the Bengals, they've gone out now and they've signed three offensive linemen. Maybe it's two. I know they're in talks with third offense lineman. These teams that we talk about long shots having cap space, they're addressing their issues. So yeah, good weekend if you're a Chargers fan, if you're a Bengals fan. That's someone that bad Jaguars features. I don't know what the hell they're doing. And Pittsburgh, I mean, Mitch is back, Chad. I don't know how if you're a bitter X, but it will be hilarious if he goes to Pittsburgh and puts on a Hall of Fame career. I only want greatness for Mr. Trubisky.

I want him to go on and have a Hall of Fame career with Pittsburgh. Why? Why? He was caught in a bad situation in Chicago with a coach who didn't know how to use him and underperformed due to circumstances and then got railroaded out of town. And I think he deserves better. And it will bring me great satisfaction to see that a quarterback this good was on our team. And if not for a coach that I hated and thought was pretty incompetent, we could have been in a much better spot. And I think as a Bears fan, it vindicates everything I think about the coaching and the ownership that has existed on this team for generations.

But that's enough, Simon. We got to get to the Thursday games. We got to get to BJ. BJ, number one, kudos. Because when we had you on for the conference tournament podcast last week, you live. loved Virginia Tech. Guess who won the ACC? Virginia Tech.

You loved Iowa in the Big Ten, not just because you live in Iowa, not just because you went to Iowa, because you thought they were the best team in the Big Ten, the best odds in the Big Ten. Congratulations, you won that too. Well done. Let's see if you can bring our listeners and us

some more winners. on the podcast today. As I said, we're going to go game by game. We're not talking about brackets. We're going game by game Thursday, game by game Friday. If you want to pepper in some long shot,

some brackets, some final four topic, conversation, feel free. And by the way, soon you're going to be able to get merchandise that has mine and Simon's faces on the back of a T-shirt. I got that in the mail from the volume team.

And I showed it to my wife. And I said, do you want it? She goes, no. Why would I want that? My family had a different reaction. Everyone in my family wants one now. So I guess that's a lot of love at home for Simon compared to chat.

A lot of history. There between me and my wife. A lot of history. All right, BJ. We got a game at 1215 on Thursday afternoon Eastern, 1215 Eastern. The controversial 11-seeded Michigan Wolverines against the six-seated Colorado State Rams. out of a incredibly stacked Mountain West. They are underdogs.

Two and a half point underdogs in this game. What do you think? I'm kind of staying away pregame. It's a really fun matchup to open up the tournament. You know, Michigan definitely got in because of the name, prestige, and the strength of schedule. They really weren't that great throughout the regular season.

You know, you're going to see a lot of ball screens, a lot of post-ups with Hunter Dickerson. Colorado State, not really good in picking a roll defense. So Michigan will have a big advantage. The problem for Michigan is they're actually one of the best teams in the country at getting open three-pointers, but they just can't hit them. They're hitting under 34% for the season. But on the flip side of that, Colorado State, not that great at defending three-pointers. And they do have an incredible score in David Roddy that I'm not really sure Michigan is going to be able to guard with Diabate or Caleb Houston.

I mean, he can go for 30 at a moment's known as he's 6-6-255, shooting over 60% from two-point range, over 40% from buying the arc. The big thing for me is I think this is going to be a fun live betting game to start out the tournament. Colorado State is arriving late in Indy. They had some travel mixups. They're leaving early Tuesday morning getting in the two hour time difference, only one day of practice. So you could see them come pretty slow out of the gates. And like we saw with Michigan, the Big Ten tournament, they're very capable of blowing a big lead. So I think this is a situation where if Colorado State gets down early, I'd probably hop on the Rams live.

Give me a team to advance. Michigan. Wow. Yes. I mean, they're just all around. I mean, Colorado State's had a great season, but I really don't think they have the bodies and the athleticism to hang with Michigan, especially Dickerson down low. I mean, their tallest guy is six foot 10. If he goes out, they don't really have another guy with that type of size to guard Dickerson down low. All right. Nine teams in from the Big Ten, Mountain West. Great year. Got a lot of teams into two. I think four teams in from the Mountain West. Not going to be a good start for his game for the Mountain West. That's what we're saying. South Dakota State Providence. Listen, the Jack Rabbits getting a lot of love. We're right now in Action Network. They could be a sleeper out of this particular region. Providence, another team. You liked them to potentially win the Big East. So is this a rock and a hard place, BJ? I love, love the Jack Rapids to pull off a big upset here. I think they're going to absolutely run Providence out of the gym. So Providence, by in the

in the analytics community, they've been the luckiest team in college basketball from Ken Palm to shot quality. You know, you've looked through the results. There's around eight wins that they had that they, that they should have lost. And, you know, that negative aggression hit them big time in the Big East tournament when Creighton went on a 31 to two run against them to beat them in the semifinals. If you haven't watched South Dakota State play, they are an absolute wagon offensively. They finished top five in all of college basketball in three point field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage, points for possession in both the half. half court and in transition. That last one in transition is huge for the jackrabbits because they play at a fast pace in Providence is 320th in defending in transition. So outside of transition, you know, Providence mainly struggles and off ball screens and off the dribble three pointers that are

outside of top 250 in those categories. South Dakota State's fourth in the entire country in both of those. And, you know, one of the biggest advantages that Providence has had over a lot of opponents is they get to the free throw line at the 12th highest rate in the country. Well, South Dakota State defensively is eighth in preventing teams to get the free throw lines. This is a horrible matchup for Providence in the first round. I love South Coast State on the money line. I understand there's short underdogs, you know, plus two. I think Providence is the shortest favorite ever in the tournament as a four seat over a 13, but I can't tell you how much I love this South Coast South Coast State team. I think they're just going to absolutely shoot Providence right out of the game.

This is the game where you get to look smarter than everybody else because you choose South Coast. Dakota State in your bracket and all of a sudden you've got an easy first round win that nobody was planning on. I mean, Chad, there are two guards, Baylor Shireman and Charlie Easley are both hitting over 46% from behind the arc. Like they are going to absolutely just torch Providence from all over the floor. So I honestly really don't see, you know, how Providence is going to get by this one. And even if they do, then they have to play Iowa. So I think Providence is going out early. But, you know, you see that in the odds because Providence, I think, is 35 to 1 to make the final four.

so the odds makers have obviously adjusted for it. 320th in transition defense. I think there's not like 120 Division 1 team. Simon. Simon. Love that call by you, BJ. Definitely see the line moving too towards this Jack Rabbit team. It opened two and a half down to two, one and a half, a lot of books.

So the next one up in our action app is Memphis, Boise State. I love eight, nine matchups. It's always a coin flip game. But it's the fun, it's more fun betting on the higher seed. And you see the higher seed right now, Memphis. minus two and a half. So again, it's interesting. Is this one of these games where, you know, they're not getting enough respect in this Memphis team? I think they're getting enough respect, and I think you'll see them get more respect as the days go on. I think you might see Memphis as

we get closer to the game. Obviously, they've been one of the hottest teams in college basketball to actually get into the tournament. So I think you'll see the market find some love with them, and you might see them get up to minus three, minus three and a half. This is going to be the polar opposite of South Dakota State. This is a huge defensive slug pass. Boise State is a huge defensive slug pass. Boise State is one of the few teams in this tournament that can actually match the size and athleticism from Memphis. They keep teams off the offensive glass at an incredibly high rate.

Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. So Boise State will able to handle them there. You also have to be, obviously, with Memphis's size, you have to be able to defend them at the rim. Boise State can do that well. Boise State can also, you know, they're 82nd and nationally and field goal percentage out of the rim.

So, you know, number one team in the Mountain West in that category as well. So it's a really good match for them defensively. On the flip side, you're going to see just 80s-type basketball from Boise State. It's going to be a ton of post-ups. They're just going to throw the ball down low. They're going to take their sweet time on offense. They're really good at scoring in the rim, but Memphis with those bodies is also great at defending at the rim. So the big thing with Boise is their snail's pace has to outweigh Memphis's tempo.

Memphis loves to get out in transition. They love to push the ball where Boise State just loves to sit there in the half court. They don't turn the ball over at a high rate. So I actually do kind of like the Broncos in this matchup. I'm waiting to get a better number. Memphis is also one of the highest turnover teams offensively in the nation. And Boise State turns people over pretty high rates. So I think it's a decent matchup for Boise who can really match Memphis's size and athleticism.

But again, I think if you wait, you're going to get a better number on the Broncos come Thursday. Memphis is one of those teams. I can't believe how little impact they've had in the postseason since Penn. Kenny Hardaway has been the coach, considering the talent that he attracts and how high their prospects, their players end up going in the draft, what sort of the ceiling on their prospects. Yeah, I mean, if they get by Boise State here, their next round matchup against Gonzaga is going to be a doozy going up against Chad Holger and Drew Timmy. That's going to be an amazing matchup down low. So we'll see if that, you know, that talent and size athleticism is going up against the best team in the country.

We'll see if they're actually for real. All right. Norfolk State, 16 seed, going against the defending national champions, the Baylor Bears. Baylor is a 21.5 point favorite, which almost feels light for a 1 and 16. Yes, Baylor does have some injuries coming into this one. So midway through the season, they lost their best interior defender, Jonathan Chachua. Then they also, before the tournament, they lost more of their guards, L.J. Cryer. he's most likely going to be out for this one, so that obviously doesn't help them.

I mean, here's the thing with Baylor is they're outstanding in half-court defense, but they're not that great in transition, 244th in the country. Norfolk State plays an incredibly fast pace, 20% of their possessions are in transition, and they attack the rim of the 39th highest rate in the country. Baylor is one of the five worst teams in the country at defending at the rim. So I understand that Norfolk State doesn't have the size and athleticism to compete with Baylor, but they have the characteristics of a team that can give Baylor some problems. they're a very good three point defense.

You know, their top 10 events against both catch and shooting off the dribble three pointers. They're fourth against mid-range jumpers. The problem is, like I said, they're just not going to be able to match the size of Baylor. But Norfolk State is the 33rd most experienced team in the country. They did play Xavier in Wichita State in the non-conference. They have seen at least somewhat of a decent opponent. So I think Norfolk State actually hangs here. Plus 21 and a half, I think is a decent number on the Spartans here against Baylor

who has those injury concerns. They're going to win, but this is going to be one of those games where there's going to be a ton of meaningless buckets down the stretch, but very meaningful to the spread. Number 14, Longwood versus number three, Tennessee. Is this an upset special? It's plus 17, but I love Longwood. It's one of the few teams I've actually watched this year. I love Longwood. I, well, I'm glad that you like Longwood because I really don't like them. They are one of the luckiest teams in college basketball. They went 15 and, in the regular season in the Big South, 14 of those wins were by eight points or less. So they have just been riding that lucky rabbit's foot all season long. Gritty.

They're gritty. They're gritty. They shoot a lot of threes, and that's great. But Tennessee is third overall in the country and adjusted defensive efficiency. And you saw that in the SEC tournament. They can just shut teams down in the half court. It's, you know, Longwood has obviously put up some great numbers. If you go through all their Ken Palm numbers, everything looks great.

but they played the 330th most difficult schedule in the country. Tennessee was third in terms of their strength of schedule. So I actually think, you know, Tennessee, they love to play in the half court, and I think they will make this a half court game, given how good they are defensively. No, Tennessee grades out really well analytically for a lot of things, but when you watch Tennessee, there are so many times where they go through stretches of just shooting droughts for five, sometimes 10 minutes.

So I think the pace of this will be played a little bit slower, not so much in transition. So I actually do like under 132.5 points. And I know the spread is high, but I do like Tennessee at minus 16 and a half. The one thing about Longwood, their travel got delayed as well. They're leaving at 7 o'clock tonight on Tuesday. They're getting into the hotel in India at like 10 o'clock. So they're basically just going to have one day.

And they play, you know, turn around at 245 on Thursday. So not the best of situations. And I know their coach has been very outspoken about how Maddie is at the NCAA. So I think Tennessee rolls here, but I think they just shut down Longwood, Longwood offensively. I think that day for Longwood, that's the difference right there. Otherwise, they had a real shot. Yeah. Tennessee is a great team.

It's really interesting. We talked about this last week. Love the SEC this year. Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, like really competitive teams. Obviously, Tennessee winning the SEC conference title proves how good they could be. Listen to me. Dropin basketball. Knowledge.

All right, BJ. Take your victory lap here. Iowa is a 10 and a half point favorite against the Richmond spiders. The money has been coming in on Iowa. You called it last week. You had Iowa winning the Big Ten title. They did it first time since 2006. What say you here?

I say if I wasn't a biased person trying to break down this matchup, I would say that this line is a tad inflated. The thing with Richmond, and you saw in the 8-10 tournament, they have an outstanding point guard in Jacob Gileard, who is a matchup nightmare for Iowa if they decided to play Jordan Bowen for a significant amount of time. There are a couple things for Iowa defensively that give me a lot of concerns. Richmond is top 10 in the country at not turning the ball over on offense, which is what Iowa basically lived off against Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. And second, Iowa allows a ton of open three-pointers, 34th in the country to be exact. Richmond's 48th offensively in open three-point rates. So if Richmond gets those open three-pointers and knocks them down, they're definitely going to be able to hang with Iowa.

Now, on the flip side of that, Iowa obviously has the best non-big men in the country in Keegan Murray. And Richmond doesn't really have an answer for that defensively. And quite frankly, the spider's defense overall for the season has been incredibly below average in both the half-court and transition. But what worries me about Iowa, and you saw it last. year with Illinois. It's the hangover from winning the Big Ten title. Illinois got ousted by a tough loyal Chicago team in the second round. This is a really experienced, really good Richmond team who,

you know, obviously they won the A10 tournament, but the high of a team like Iowa and Illinois who hadn't won the Big Ten title for a long time, that hangover tends to carry over into the first and second round. So if I wasn't an Iowa fan and I wasn't biased, I would tell you that Richmond plus 10 and a half has a lot of value, but I'm not going to do that because I love. of my Hawkeyes. Can I just say that I don't even know if Keegan Murray was the best non-bigman in that in that game? Jared Ivy was amazing.

I'm not so sure. I mean, Keegan Murray was the best player in the Big Ten tournament. We don't have to get into a debate about who's better to. All right. He might have been the best player in the tournament. Jared Ivy is the most electrifying player. I mean, yes, he's obviously more athletic, but I mean, Kagan Murray can, he can beat you everywhere.

He can go down low and take you up in the post. He can hit from three. He can just, there, he's an absolute matchup nightmare for any team really in this term. And the reason I said non-bigman is because if Stuckey was on here, and I said that Kiggan Murray was better than Oscar Shibway, he would jump through the computer screen and choke me. So that's the caveat I had to put that. I mean, Kikin-Murray's incredible.

He went eight for 10 from three. against Indiana in the semis. I mean, come on. I don't know what you're talking about. Simon, ask your question. Next up, we got number 16, Georgia, Georgia State verse, number one, Gonzaga. I do the singing on this show. Plus 23.5.

Is that a short number for the Zags? Like, should I be taking the Zags here? That feels short. No, this Georgia State team is actually really, really good and really underrated. you know, listen, Gunzaga will cruise. They'll get by this, but are they going to cover that spread? I'm really not so sure.

Georgia State doesn't have the height to compete with Gonzaga, but boy, can they defend at the rim? 27th in the nation and two point field goal percentage, 45th and field goal percentage allowed at the rim, which not surprisingly is what Gonzaga does best offensively with Chet Holgram and Drew Timmy. And Gunzaga obviously loves to push the pace. They love to get out in transition,

but Georgia State is the third best team in the nation in transition defense. So it's not that great of a matchup for Gonzaga offensively if they can't score at the rim. Additionally, Georgia State 19th internal percentage, 36th, enforcing bad shot selection, eighth, and defending off ball screens, which is all what Gonzaga does at an elite level. Now, well, Georgia State isn't that grave and offensive team. They do run a lot of pick and roll, which is one area that Gonzaga has tend to struggle with this season. And honestly, if you look at some of their shooting regression stats, I mean, they are due for a ton of positive aggression.

Even if you look throughout their results all season long, you know, an analytics site called shock quality that basically measured expected points and, you know, expected results. Georgia State should have gone undefeated in the Sunbelt this season. They were just incredibly unlucky and had a bunch of wins and losses that they should have won. So I love the Panthers at plus 23 and a half. They really honestly should not have been a 16 seed. They should have been a 15. I mean, for Gonzagos, I mean, they're going to win, but I think they would have preferred to have a different 16 seed than in Georgia State. So I definitely think the Panthers are going to hang here and definitely cover 23.5.

Marquette, three and a half point underdog to UNC, which, let's face it, they don't be Duke and Coach Kay's last game. They probably get credit for three wins in that game. They might not make the tournament. Do they advance? Do they cover? This is one of the matchups that I have really just up in the air and can go either way. So North Carolina, incredible rebounding team with Hermando Baycott down low against a Marquette.

team that is outside the top 300 and both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. On the other hand, you have Marquette, who is third in the country in terms of quality of looks they allow from three point range against North Carolina offense that have been hitting threes at an incredibly high rate, but is also due for some negative shooting aggression. Both these teams play at a fast pace, which is going to favor Marquette, top 50 in transition offense, North Carolina outside of top 250 in transition defense. Marquette also loves to shoot a ton of threes, which North Carolina tends to struggle defending, but that, man, that rebounding advantage down low for North Carolina is absolutely no joke.

And Baycott could have 16, 17 rebounds in this game. So this is one where I do think it's priced correctly along with the over-under. So I will ultimately be passing. And yeah, this is the one match if I've looked at. I just, I really, it could honestly go either way. And I really don't know what to make of these teams. Well, so who do you choose to advance if you have to choose someone in a bracket? I will choose North Carolina to advance, given the fact that they are favored.

and the rebounding advantage, I think, will outweigh any of the shooting regression that they're due for. Take a shot on college hoops this march with a risk-free bet on Fanduals Sportsbook. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandu or already have an account. All customers get a risk-free bet on the bracket. Just sign into the Fanduals Facebook app to claim your offer today. New to Fandual, sign up with promo code favorites to get in on the action. Imagine an Olympics where DHS Doping is not only legal, but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

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What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at It podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day

But just so y'all know I mean at this point Mark this is the second episode where we've discussed crack So I'm starting to see There's a through line We also have AIDS on the table right now So

Thank you finishing that sentence And yes I don't think there's a more important year for black people Really? Yeah For me it's one of the most important years For black people in American history

Listen to look back at it On the IHeart Radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcast Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross,

because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing,

growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app, Search learn the hard way and listen now. There, you can bet on that underdog you've had your eye on or just go with the favorite. Either way, it's risk-free. On Thursday, I'm going with the San Diego State Aztex,

laying two and a half against Creighton as my favorite bet, and with cash out the balls in your court so you can close out your bet whenever you want before the game is over. There's no better place to bet the tournament than Fandual Sportsbook. Join now with promo code favorites, If you already have an account signed into the Fandul Sportsbook app to claim your risk-free bet today, you must be 21 and over and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Wyoming. Refund issued as non-witrable site credit that expires in seven days, max refund $5. Offers non-refundable restrictions apply. See terms at Sportsbook.Fandle.

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What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination. our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think.

Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. 12 seed, New Mexico State University. Getting six and a half versus the five seed, Yukon. I mean, Yukon, this is their time to shine. I feel like every time we get to this point, even though they're not even talked about, this is usually when Yukon just makes a nice little run in the tournament.

I think the final four long shot. Final four long shot in Yukon Huskies. Wow. I mean, I tend to somewhat agree with that. I mean, this is honestly an interesting match, but I think it will be a trendy, 12, 5 upset. You know, New Mexico State has been in the tournament a ton of times. They're obviously, you know, experience from being here.

But, you know, North, you know, Connecticut is an incredible defense. you know, number one team in the country in terms of the quality of three-pointers that they allow. That's really bad news from New Mexico State, who takes a really high number of threes and is only hitting around 33% for the season. Yukon also the number one team in college basketball in offensive rebounding percentage. New Mexico State does rank pretty highly in defensive rebounding, but they didn't have played an overly difficult non-conference schedule. The one team they did play was Washington State, who finished the year top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage. The Cougars grabbed 18 offensive rebounds in that game. So if I'm New Mexico State, I am very, very worried about keeping Yukon off the offensive glass.

Yukon, I mean, just all around great defensive team, but offensively, they have tended to struggle. They've had some shooting goals from time to time. But, you know, in Mexico State, not that great of a defense. So I am leaning towards Yukon at the current number. I'd like to wait and see if maybe the public comes in on New Mexico State. They've already gotten some money from the opener. But this is actually a really good matchup for Yukon in the first round. on one of the five-twelves that I don't think has a real good one of the 12s that doesn't have

really good shot of upsetting five. I know we didn't plan on this, but I am going to need you to give me a final four prediction and final for a national title winner at the end of part one. I'm just saying it right now. I'm going to need it. Okay. Don't give me your attitude, BJ. Just say yes.

Okay. Yes or a chance, sir. All of a sudden, You got the best player in the Big Ten, and you think you're so special. I'm just asking for facts. University of Kentucky, which I think a lot of people also think could be a very trendy final four pick out of their region. They're playing St. Peters. They're a pretty big favorites at 17 and a half.

That tells you a lot about how much bookmakers respect Kentucky right now at 17 and a half, considering the seating they are. Yeah, it's a really not a great. match it for the Peacocks, but they were, they are the best team in this tournament against the spread this season, 20 and 9. But that being said, they are the number one team in the country of the frequency of their shots coming at the rim, but they are at 352nd in field goal percentage at the rim. So going against a Kentucky front line of Oscar Shebawe, this is really, really bad for them. It's, it's, you know, they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. They do get the free

their line at a pretty high rate, you know, but Kentucky, those are two areas that they are incredible at. You know, St. Peters, if you look at their schedule, the toughest opponents they face, the place BCU, St. John's, Providence, and Iona twice in the MAAC, they got beat pretty handily in all five of those games. So I think Kentucky cruises here, but, you know, Kentucky is a very high percentage mid-range team. They don't take a lot of threes. So if they're not hitting those mid-range shots, which are technically lower quality than three-point. they could be in some trouble here. But again, you know, Oscar Sheewe is 6-9-255.

The biggest guy that St. Peter says is 6-7-200. So She-Bway should just be able to dominate down low. But with that being said, this line has got steamed pretty hard. It opened a 15 and a half, and now it's up to 18 at a lot of books. If St. Peters gets to 20, I don't like it. And I highly doubt it actually will get there. But I may end up playing the peacocks, even though it is kind of a bad matchup with the backdoor potential.

But other than that, I'm staying away. 352nd in the country on shots at the rim. When you're getting so many shots at the rim, it's not good. It's just not good. Just not good. Next up, you got number nine, Crichton, plus two and a half versus the eight seed.

San Diego State University. Fun fact, San Diego State University told me my grades weren't good enough to get into their college. I hold a grudge forever. I'm still pissed about. it. My whole life would be different. My whole life, I wish I got in, but two each is a two and a half. Who we got in this matchup? I love the Aztex. For those who are known San Diego State finished

second in the entire country and adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Palm. You cannot score quickly on them. They are the number one team in the nation in terms of their average possession length on defense, which is a problem for Creighton, who is going to try to speed San Diego State up and try to score quickly. And San Diego State turns opponents over top 30 in the country. Craton's outside the top 300 offensively at turning the ball over. So really not a great match. But on top of all of that, Creighton was out with their starting point guard, Ryan Nemhart, who broke his hand.

So this is really not a great matchup for Creighton offensively. On the flip side, Creighton, very, very good half court defense, 13th in points per possession allowed. They're also top 10 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, which is really basically where San Diego State runs a lot of their offense. But the Aztecs are hitting a pretty decent percentage from outside the arc, where Creighton hasn't been that great at defending. So I really think this matchup favors the Aztecs, given how good their defense is.

So I love them minus two and a half. And I just really am not sure how Creighton is going to score efficiently if their defense isn't able to hit a high percentage of three-pointers and they're constantly turning the ball over. I'd like to see a list of all the schools. Some have applied to where he got in and where he got rejected from. I also want to see your SAT scores. To this day... I was a good student. I told you.

I cheated all with through high school. So I got good grades. I got the exact grades I wanted to get through high school. I was one of those kids. You can't say I was a good student. And by the way, I cheated on the way through high school. Why not? Those are two.

Is that what made you a good student? 100%. It's all high school is about effort. People put effort into studying. Other people put effort into cheating. It's either or. I mean, that's high school, right? Fake it until you make it.

Amen, brother. The lessons you learn about evaluating. upside and opportunity on the favorites podcast. The University of Vermont, I believe they're called the Catamouts, are taking on the Arkansas Razorbacks last year's tournament, darling. I love this team so much in the tournament last year. The Razorbacks are five-point favorites. They're playing at 9.20 p.m. on Thursday.

The question is, are you going to be able to stay up for this one, Chad? Oh, no, listen, not even. There's no chance. I'm probably done after a halftime of Creight in San Diego State. Well, when you wake up the next morning and check your phone, you will hopefully see that Vermont has covered five points because two years in a row, the Arkansas has gotten a really dicey first round draw.

Last season, it was Colgate, who almost got them. Now they get an incredibly experienced Vermont team. And the market has hit it pretty hard. Arkansas opened at minus six and a half, and the Razorbacks are already down to minus five. This is actually a pretty good matchup for Vermont. You know, first off, they're the number one defensive rebounding team in the country. So they should be able to keep

Arkansas off the glass. Secondly, they're very good at defending inside the arc. Twenty-second and two-point field-ball percentage allowed, top 80 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. Arkansas cannot shoot from behind the arc. So really bad match for them if they're not able to score from inside the arc. Vermont is also going to slow this down to an absolutely snail's pace and force Arkansas to play them in the half court where they are the second best team in college basketball in terms of efficiency. Vermont is also just incredible in terms of their shot selection. They don't turn the ball over and they're very efficient attacking the rim. But most importantly, like I already mentioned, per Ken Palm, fourth most experienced team in the entire country. So if Arkansas is forced to play

this in a half court, grinded out style of game with one of the more efficient offenses in college basketball, they could without a doubt be on upset alert. So I love Vermont plus five, plus five and half. And it's a nice money line to throw in a round Robin on Thursday as well. Wow, we got a couple good upsets on this Thursday one, Chad. I like it. Yeah, me too. 10 seed, San Francisco, plus one and a half first, seven seed, Murray State. Murray State 30 and two, a seven seed.

That's kind of crazy. They just don't play against good teams, I'm guessing. Yes, yes, and no. I mean, the OBC, it's typically just them in Belmont. Morehead State was pretty good this year, so they had two decent opponents in conference play. The last time they lost was December. 22 against Obama. So they haven't lost in 2022. And the reason they are so good is they just

torch people in transition. 76th highest frequency of possessions in transition. Sixth best in points per possession there. Well, guess what? They're facing the team that's one spot below them in that same category. San Francisco is seventh in the country in transition offense. So I think we'll end up seeing an absolute track meet. And the guard match for this is incredible. You know, these two backcorts are two of the best, you know, in mid-major college basketball. Murray State, you know, when they are in the half court, they run a ton of off-ball screens, you know, which bodes well against San Francisco, who's outside the top 200 in defending that. They also attack the rim in an incredibly high rate.

San Francisco, while they defend well at the rim, they're allowing the 16th highest frequency of shots at the rim. So some pretty good advantages for Murray offensively. On the flip side, San Francisco is an excellent three-point shooting team. They have the third highest points per possession on off-the-drivel three. pointers. Murray State is decent at defending those, but where they aren't decent is in the post-up. 324th in the nation while San Francisco was third in the West Coast Conference in post-up sets. So with those type of offensive advantages for both teams and the fact that both are so efficient

in transition, I think we're going to see an up-and-down style type of game. So the total is set at 136.5. I think that's way too low. I love the over in that spot in this game. I love the nickname for the University of San Francisco. It's one of my favorite in all of college basketball, the San Francisco Don's. I also love that two of what I would argue are three of the best players in San Francisco Don's history played for the Chicago Bulls. They won a national title in the 50s, I believe. They won a national title in the 50s with probably, arguably the greatest center in India history, Bill Russell. Yep. You were probably in high school then, right, Chad?

You are a Okay. Last game on Thursday, we got Akron at UCLA, another Final Four team from last year, Final Four darling. They were fun to watch. Lay it on us, BJ. Yeah, this is one might put you to sleep late at night

because it's going to be played at an incredibly slow pace. Akron, seventh slowest and adjusted tempo in the country. UCLA well below average in 10. tempo as well. But you're going to see it from Mick, Mick Cronin's team is a lot of mid-range jumpers because they're 10th most efficient team in that category. Akron is pretty average in defending that. UCLA, their offense is obviously very good, very efficient, but I don't think a lot of people realize is that they don't really take up a high number of three-pointers. We obviously saw Zhu Zeng go crazy in their run last year, but they're outside the top 300 in three-point

rate, which in this matchup, they may want to rethink because Akron does tend to struggle a lot against three-point shooting teams. The thing about Akron is they shoot a very high percentage from the floor, but they'd get to the free-throw line at the fifth highest rate in the country. And that's one area that UCLA tends to struggle defensively. I mean, against Arizona, they allowed them to get to the free-th line 28 times in the Pac-12 championship game. So, you know, Akron didn't play the toughest of schedules.

Their toughest game they played was the opening game against Ohio State in Columbus, which they lost on a buzzer-beater. But they did beat a really good Toledo team twice in the Mac, but 208th in terms of strength of schedule, it's going to be really tough for them to match up well here with UCLA. I will ultimately be passing on this game because I think the line is priced correctly. The old runner is pretty correct.

So ultimately this game, I think, is just a pass and UCLA advances pretty comfortably. All right. The other two games that obviously we haven't talked about, and reminder, we're going to do part two of the Friday games in a separate pod. We're going to ignore the playing games because they're happening today.

most people aren't going to hear that. BJ, before we get to part two, give me your final four. Give me your national champion. My final four is going to be Texas Tech coming out of the West region. Kentucky coming out of the east. Arizona coming out of the south. Iowa coming out of the Midwest. Arizona is going to play Kentucky in the final.

And Tommy Lloyd's team, the Wildcats, well, the Wildcats are going to beat the Wildcats. Arizona is going to cut down the nets against Kentucky. That is a really full, interesting, well-conceived, diverse Final Four. You've got like underdogs, you've got a number one seed, you've got a blue blood in there. I like it. Yeah. I mean, Gonzaga, they're ripe to get taken down by a Texas Tech who is the number one defense in college basketball. So that's going to be one of the more. if it ends up happening, those two teams is going to be one of the more fun matchups of the entire tournament.

All right. For Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell, for BJ Cunningham, I am Shadman. This is part one of the March Madness 2022 game by game breakdown. We just did the Thursday games. Don't forget Friday games, a part two podcast released simultaneously. Download the podcast from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get. your podcast rate, review, subscribe, give us five stars. We don't care what you say.

Feedback is a gift. Until then, love you. Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic not enough people know about and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinwiddie host of the new podcast Navigating Adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Each episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories told by the families that live them with commentary from experts.

Visit Adoptuskids.org slash podcast or Subscribe to Navigating Adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. This offseason, get football on your terms with NFL game pass for just $999. It just starts getting good. Welcome to the NFL draft. Experience the draft like never before with live streams into draft rooms. It's an absolutely home run kick.

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Giraff. Giraff, really? Giraffe. You're not going to get it all right. Just make sure you know the big stuff, like making sure your kids are buckled correctly in the right seat for their age and size. Get it right. Visit NHTSA.

Slash the right seat. Brought to you by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Ad Council. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for Black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.