The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 2

Episode Date: March 18, 2022

The best gambling event of the spring is upon us! And to get everybody ready, Action Network's own Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter go through every game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with the help of their colleague BJ Cunningham.In this episode, they go game-by-game through the Friday slate, touching on every matchup from a betting perspective in order of tip-off time. Should we unload on Davidson? Is Colgate the underdog everyone will be talking about this weekend? And is this Coach K's final weekend of basketball? All this and more, So sit back, listen up and enjoy the Madness! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes,

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For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians,

and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Ashley, furniture is our passion, founded in 1945 with the belief that furniture could be made a better way. Ashley, committed to inspire the love of home and enrich lives. When you're passionate about something, you wake up every day, excited to design, create, and build your life around that passion.

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through the dark abyss to the sea floor. And a rare look at the animals that thrive in the depths. Into the Deep feature species displayed for the first time anywhere. Some, so new to science, they have yet to be named. Don't miss it. Buy tickets and reserve your day at Monterey Bay Aquarium.org. There's a lot of COVID info out there, but not all of it's true. So it's important to remember the facts.

Do COVID-19 vaccines give people the virus? Nope. It's actually the opposite. Vaccines teach ourselves how to fight COVID-19. And just like other vaccines, COVID-19 boosters help keep our immunity strong. Share the facts, not the virus. Find a vaccine near you at my turn.ca.gov. Brought to you by the California Department of Public Health.

The Favorites podcast is presented by Fandual Sportsbook. There's no better place to make every moment more than with Fandual. I bet with Fandual because they're safe and secure. They offer great odds and markets across the NBA, NHL, and more. And because it's fun to combine multiple bets into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download the Fanduil Sportsbook app to get started now. Sign up with promo code favorites so they know I sent you. You must be 21 and over in present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Louisiana.

Gambling problem. Call 1-800 Next Step or Text. next step to 53342 in Arizona, 1,800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1, 888-789-7777, or visit c-cpg-org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-800-net for confidential help in Michigan, 1-8-7-1-1-800-net.combe. in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's March Madness, we folks. We just did a part one podcast looking at every game on Thursday with Action Network,

college basketball expert, BJ Cunningham. I'm joined as I am by my BFF, my companion, Michael Padre, Simon, Hunter, BJ. We've got to get to part two. Simon, why don't you get to ask about the first game? really you're going to let me go first i want you to go first all right it's it's a chicago team so i assumed you'd be be on it but i got opinions you do this team feels like every year they're in it liola 10 seed only 0.5 dog right now to ohio state the 7th seed that's that's an interesting line right there what do you think of it bj yeah it is interesting because ohio state has some injury concerns

zd kee and kyle young two of their best big men are questionable player on friday it sounds like Zed Key's likely to play, but Kyle Young is still up in the air, which would be, you know, if both of them able to play, it's a huge boost to the Buckeyes. But like every year, this Loyal Chicago team is incredibly difficult to beat. They finish the season seventh, ineffective field goal percentage. They spaced the floor well. Their top 20 in shot selection, 13th in rim and three point rate. It's just, it's a really, really difficult team to stop. With that being said, they're going to have to hit a ton of their ton of threes to win this game because they're not that efficient at the rim. Ohio State is outstanding at preventing

people to get to the rim. The pace of this game is going to be incredibly slow and played in the half court, both Loyola, Chicago and Ohio State, bottom 70% and adjusted tempo, top 100 in frequency of possessions in the half court. I mean, listen, Ohio State, they're very talented team. They have one of the best players in college basketball and E.J. Lidell, but they're very, very reliant on him, scoring, especially from the post. So they basically get down there, they throw it into him. They gets doubled. They throw it out. And it's just, it's a long possession over and over. And that's really what Loyola Chicago does great defensively at forcing teams to play those long type of possessions. So I actually love the under 132 and a half points with that type of slow pace,

with both teams being pretty good defensively and taking away some of the advantages the other offenses have. I like the under here as far as a team to win this one. I mean, I'll put, I'll take Loyola Chicago to move on. I don't like it much because if those of two Ohio State big men are playing, that's going to be troublesome for Loyola down low. But I do think the Ramblers end up advancing here? More than anything, obviously I'm going to have an opinion because of Chicago. I am thrilled that Loyola has established a team that has a very specific personality and a program that can last beyond Parker Moser, who obviously left this past year,

that they built a reputation. Like they built a Gonzaga of the Midwest. And I think that's fantastic. And they're moving to the American conference next year. Yeah, I love that. I love that for that team. I love it for the area. I love it for the campus. Love everything about it. Go ramblers. All right. Simon, we got Jacksonville State visiting a very inconsistent up and down Auburn team that to me is one of the teams that is most reflective of the personality of its coach in that it is frenetic, it is emotional, it is inconsistent, it can be great, it can be maddening, all of those things. also pertain to Bruce Pearl 15.5 point favorites against Jacksonville State. You know, this is going to be the polar opposite of the last game we just talked about. If you want to see a three-point shooting contest, this is the game for you because Jacksonville State,

they're going to be completely outmatched in the front court. Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler have huge size advantages over them. But for them to Jacksonville State to actually have a chance in this game, they're going to have to hit a boatload of three-pointers. And that hasn't been a problem for them this season because they are 11th in the country in three-point field goal percentage. and they take them at top 60 rate. I mean, Jacksonville State's two guards, the two Jalen's, Jalen Gibbs and Jalen Fitch, Finch,

are both shooting over 40% from behind the arc. Auburn defensively is very hard to score at the rim with those two big guys, but they do tend to struggle defending three-pointers. So Jacksonville State is absolutely going to be able to stay in this game. The pace is going to be, like you said, frenetic, fast if it's played at Auburn's liking. Their top 10 in the country in terms of efficiency in transition. Well, that's also good for Jacksonville State. who's also top 10 in terms of efficiency in transition.

So if this turns into a track meet three point shooting contest, I mean, there's going to be just scoring galore. But the worry I have for Jacksonville State is their two biggest guys are 610 and 6.7. That is not good going against Javari Smith and Walker Kessler, who are 611 and 7.2. So given the fact that Jacksonville State shoots a ton of three-pointers, they're efficient in transition. And the pace of this game is if it's played fast and it should be because,

Auburn is the favorite. I love over 136.5 points here. I think this is going to go way, way over the total given the style that this game is going to be played at. I like that you're giving us totals and not just focusing on the sides because now we got an opportunity for every market.

We got the 14th seed, Montana State, playing against what you said is one of the best defenses in the country, Texas Tech. 15 and a half points, that's a lot of points for a team that is, you know, defensively strong. But are they offensively strong to cover that number? Is this one of those that the bookmakers

just saying this team won't be able to keep up with such a great defense. This is one ultimately would be passing on. I think Texas Tech, you know, cruises here. But there is one little bugaboo, troublesome thing for Texas Tech. The Montana State, they get to the free throw line at the fifth highest rate in the country. And while Texas Tech does everything well defensively, that's one area they tend to struggle with. They're 230 seconds in free throw rate allowed. So if Montana State is able to get them in foul trouble and gets the free throw line,

They could stay in this. The Bobcats are very efficient in both transition and the half court. But like I said, this is the number one team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, number one team in college basketball and half court defense. Montana State, the two biggest non-conference teams they played were Colorado and South Dakota State. And they were pretty efficient offensively in both those games. But this is a really, really bad matcher for them. And really just a massive step up in competition from what they've been seeing in the Big Sky Conference.

you know, Montana State's not that greater defensive team, especially in transition. Texas Tech is third in terms of efficiency in transition, but they don't, they play a pretty slow pace and they don't get out in transition that much. So it's kind of a weird matchup. I do think the line is absolutely correct, along with the total. Maybe look at it over if this game is, if Montana State pushes this to an above average tempo, which they usually play at. But yeah, ultimately, this is another one of those matchups that is giving me a little bit of a head scratcher so I will ultimately be passing. Texas Tech Loyola, Purdue, three college basketball programs that are sustaining success

after like the long time or which that brought them to that level of success, got them there. I love that. I love that for these programs. Legacy, legacy boom. So we're doing with the Action Network. long after I'm gone, Matt Mitchell, BJ, Simon, yes, I'm putting myself in the same category as Gene Cady. You guys will be just taking the action network

to the NCAA tournament every year, losing in the second round, and it's going to be fantastic. The Yale Bulldogs winners of the Ivy League being Princeton, they get the benefit of getting into the tournament to be 16-point underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers. Yeah, this is going to be a very very, very, very interesting game. And I think one that's going to be played in a pretty high tempo with a lot of scoring.

So Purdue ended the season, third in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. And as you saw in the Big Ten tournament, they have two incredible big men. And Zach Eadie, who's 7-4 and Trevionne Williams, who is about as physical and skilled of a big man that you're going to find in college basketball. They're top 12 in 2.3 point field goal percentage. They're unbelievably good in transition where I think most this game is going to be played. Yale does play at a pretty fast pace. They're 86th in adjusted tempo.

their average possession length on defense is ninth lowest in the country, which means teams are either getting shots up in transition, where they're scoring very quickly in the half court, which definitely favors Purdue in this one. The biggest problem is Yale is not a good defensive rebounding team or defending at the rim, which is a big, big problem facing Purdue. So I think Purdue scores at well.

I mean, Isaiah Kelly is their starting center for Yale. He is 6'7 trying to defend a huge. seven for Zach Eadie. So Purdue, big time advantages. On the flip side, Purdue not that great of a defensive team. 11th, a hundredth in the country and adjust to defensive efficiency per Ken Palm. They're 316th in points per possession allowed in transition defense, 300 second in defending mid-range jumpers, which Yale is 25th most efficient at on offense. So the total is set at 143, given the fact that Yale plays at a fast pace, Purdue is incredibly good in transition offensively, but really bad defensively. I think we're going to go way over that total. So I love over

143 points. All right. We got the 15 seed Delaware, which is a school I did get into, Chad, but they wouldn't give me any money. So I was not allowed to go there. 15C Delaware versus Nova, the two seed, 15 and a half,

a lot of points. Yeah, it is a tad high. And I think that if it gets a little higher, I might end up playing Delaware, who finished the season as the number one team in the CAA in terms of just offensive efficiency. But I don't think that will translate too well against Villanova.

They play a team very similar in terms of the style of Villanova, which is very slow pace, very efficient defense, and shoots a ton of threes. They played Davidson in the first game of the season. They got their doors blown off. 93 to 71. Davis hit 14 threes against them. There was the first game in the season, I understand,

but that's also the last time they saw a team even close to the caliber. They're going to face against Villanova. Delaware, not a good defense against three-pointers. It's 257th in the country. three-point field goal percentage allowed against a Villanova team that shoots the 23rd highest rate in terms of three-pointers in the country. So very, very bad matchup here for Delaware. But Delaware is good at defending in transition. But for those, like I said, Villanova does play at a very, very slow pace with almost all of it coming in the half court.

So it's a really tough match up here for Delaware. But with that being said, the number is getting steamed. It is getting a tad too high. If Philanova shoots up to minus 16 and a half, minus 17, I might have to end up playing. Delaware, but other than that, I will be staying away. Miami sneaks into the tournament as a, what looks like a 10 seed. They're playing the USC Trojans, which has become a very consistent program. They're one and a half point favorites.

USC is. I think USC covers and advances. So they have a pretty massive size advantage against Miami. Trojans are fourth and average heights. Miami is 212, but Miami is the most efficient team in scoring and transition in all of college basketball while USC is in the bottom half in defending in transition. However, I still like this matcher from USC. The Trojans are the number two team in the country and field bowl percentage allowed at the rim where a lot of Miami shots are coming from because they

have one of the lower three point rates in the ACC. So if Miami isn't shooting a high number of three pointers and isn't able to score effectively at the rim, that means it's going to be forced into a ton of mid-range jumpers, which USC is pretty good at defending. On the flip side, USC with their size does a ton of post-ups with Isaiah Moble, which is a big Big advantage against Miami who's outside the top 200 in post-up defense and field goal percentage allowed at the rims. Also, USC 26th and offensive rebounding, Miami 266 that keeping teams off the offensive glass. So outside of the kind of a bad matchup for USC in transition, given their size advantage, and I think they'll be able to dominate Miami down low.

So I love the Trojans to cover minus one and a half in advance the second round. And BJ, thanks again, man, Virginia Tech, which is the next game where I talk about. that was such a great call. I'm a Duke fan. So for me, it's, it hurt to lose and Coach K lose like that, but I don't know. Oh, I hate Duke. So I savored every single moment. I mean, you know what?

I was thinking about hedging it. But at this last second, I was kind of just like, you know what? Let's just, it's 10 to 1. Let's just let it ride. Yeah, I let it ride. I got 9 to 1. So, like, again, it was 9K. I was like, you know what that sucks for Coach K, but I just made 9K to watch a basketball game.

Exactly. Yeah, I mean, listen, Virginia Tech is an incredibly underrated team. you saw in the ACT tournament. Back to the same thing I spoke about with Iowa, these teams that aren't used to winning the conference tournaments aren't used to going deep. I really worry about the hangover playing four games in four days and having that type of, you know, that high of winning the tournament and then coming in and having to play a very, very good Texas team that grades out very well analytically, but there are just so many times with Texas. And a TCU game is a perfect example in the Big 12 tournament where they just go through these scoring droughts that

completely take them out of the game. I mean, Texas, they're the second best team in college basketball and points per possession allowed in half court defense. So, you know, Virginia plays at a snail's pace with most of their possessions coming in the half court. So that's not really that great of a matchup for them. But as we spoke about in the last podcast, Virginia Tech, really, really efficient three-point shooting team over 39% from behind the arc this season. But it's really hard because I really do like Virginia Tech in this match. I really do. I think they're one of the more underrated teams in college basketball.

And Texas has given me so many bad vibes all season long. But then you look at it analytically and you're like, okay, this is not the best matchup for Virginia Tech. So I will ultimately be passing given how good Texas defense has been all season long. This could be a good live betting situation if Virginia Tech gets down from that hangover from the ACC tournament, as we saw so many times with Texas just blowing these type of huge leads. So you could get a better number on Virginia Tech Live. But unless the Hokies get to plus two and a half or plus three, I'm going to ultimately be passing and just, waiting to bet this life. What about just advancing? I will be picking Virginia Tech to advance in my bracket. Do think they are a better team than Texas, but I will say it does not give me a good feeling.

Gives you a yucky feeling. Yes. It gives me a hangover feeling, Chad. The next matchup is Chattanooga at Illinois. Listen, Illinois, we talked about this. I feel they've been inconsistent. They proved it during the Big Ten tourney. I feel like the past two years, even when they were number one C last year, a little bit overhyped. Great in the middle with Kofi, obviously. But Chattanooga was live to me. I just got to say. Yes, they definitely are live.

And this number is a tad inflated. I mean, Chattanooga has two incredible players. Malachi Smith and Kansas transfer, Silvio and DeSouza are two, we're two of the best big, best two players in the whole Socon this year. And DeSuzza can definitely match up with Kofi down low. The mocks, no, if you remember, they want that desperation three-pinter beat Furman to go to the turn.

tournament, you know, just one of those first basket that, like, hey, we're finally here at March. Defensively, they're not that great. I'll be honest. They pretty much every category you look at down the line, they tend to struggle in it. And to beat Illinois, you know, obviously they've been inconsistent, but you have to defend in the postwell against Kofi. You have to defend the pick and roll well, which they run a ton of with Kofi. And you have to defend three point line rule because they can throw four shooters out there on the three point line and just, you know, run away with a certain type of game now. The reason they've been kind of consistent is they weren't hitting the three-pointers at the high of the rate in the big 10

conference that they were in the non-conference. But on the flip side, you know, for Chattanooga offensively, they're going to have to push the pace to compete in this game. They don't spend a ton of time in transition, but they are very, very efficient there, 25th in the nation points per possession. Illinois defensively 307th in defending in transition. Chattanooga also very good offensive rebouting team. It hardly turns the ball over. It's a really, really good team. It worries me how bad they are defensively and that Illinois could just score at will on them, but they definitely do have the talent and the offense to hang

with Illinois. And I do think Illinois is a tad overvalued on the spread here. I think the line should be around five. So I do like Chattanooga, plus seven and a half. Fifteen seed. Cal State Fullerton is playing Duke, a two seed. Coach Kay's last run in March Madness.

Plus 19. That's a lot. Duke will get by this one, but Duke can't stop anything right now. They can't turn anybody over. they can't stop anybody in transition and they're horrible at defending three-pointers. Cal State Fullerton pretty split in terms of their percentage of possessions in both half-court in transition, but they don't take a high number of three-pointers. So I think Duke might be a little bit off the hook here in the first round.

You know, Cal State Fullerton, they do not have the size to compete with Duke. They're pretty poor at defending threes. So I think this line's pretty much spot on along with the over-under. So I will ultimately be passing. But what I will say is if Davidson gets by Michigan State, I will be fading Duke so hard. hard in the second round. Duke last four games allowed over 1.1 points for possession in North Carolina, Syracuse without Buddy Beheim, Miami, and Virginia Tech. They are ripe for a big time upset playing especially a Davidson team filled with guys who wanted to go to Duke, but Coach Kay wouldn't recruit.

So that'll just say, I love Davidson if they can get by to face Duke. Davidson also one of the teams that we wrote about on Action Network that's getting a lot of wise guy I love right now. Iowa State and Louisiana State, Louisiana State, the team that best represents the history of corruption and malfeasance in sort of the best representation of that from a state known for it, Long live Huey Long, right? Will Wade has been fired. Man, that guy had nine lives, but there's still four point favorites against Iowa State. Yeah, I guess that shows you just how bad the sanctions were to have to fire a coach the day. before the selection Sunday.

22 wins. Out. Yeah. So, I mean, the tigers are absolutely in flux. This is a game I will ultimately be passing on. Maybe potentially, I think you could play a live under. These are two teams, both top 10 in the country and adjust to defensive efficiency, both top five and turnover percentage while both offenses are outside the top 300 in terms of turning the ball over.

So if I'm playing anything here, I mean, the total is set at 127 and a half. That's fairly priced and honestly, pretty low. But, you know, both these teams, if they come out shooting lights out, I think that that's obviously going to regress towards the main because both they're hitting under 33% from behind the arc. And these are also two of the 20 best three-point field goal defenses in the country. So we'll be trying to look to play alive under. I don't know if we'll be able to.

It might come out and these teams might just turn the ball over back and forth for the first 10 minutes. But that is where I'd be looking, but definitely just completely staying away from this altogether. Because Iowa State, I mean, they are so, so bad in the half course. really, they've regressed so much from, they obviously had a high at the beginning of the season. They were outperforming and then they regressed all the way back down to Earth, which was so, so sweet to see as an Iowa fan. Start your bracket with a bang.

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Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. is a way. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the big.

moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crows.

crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

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call the Tennessee red line 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-9 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. There's a lot of COVID info out there, but not all of it's true. So it's important to remember the facts. Do COVID-19 vaccines give people the virus? Nope. It's actually the opposite. Vaccines teach ourselves how to fight COVID-19. And just like other vaccines, COVID-19 boosters help keep our immunity strong. Share the facts, not the virus. Find a vaccine near you at my turn.ca.gov, brought to you by the California Department of Public Health. Boosters provide stronger COVID protection for everyone who's 12 and older and vaccinated. Boosters mean fewer people who are seriously ill

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If you watched him in the conference USA tournament, Jelly Walker, absolutely electric point guard. You know, hung 40 in a triple overtime game against Middle Tennessee. But, and listen, I know everybody's going to love Jelly Walker, and this is going to be a very, very trendy underdog, because they're fun. I mean, who doesn't want to bet on a fun team? Who wants, doesn't want a fun team to advance. But this is a really, really bad match for them. Houston, despite losing some key pieces injury-wise really on the season,

they finished top five in the Ken Palm rankings. And they're a fifth, they're a five seed. And their top 11, both adjusted defensive and offensive efficiency. Eleventh and defensively, their 11th in three-point field-goal percentage allowed, eighth and two-point field-bombal percentage allowed, top 20 in both half-court and transition defense. they turn opponents over at a high rate, and they're a very good defensive rebounding team. So I understand everybody loves Jelly Walker. I understand he's fun, but this is a really, really bad matchup for UAB. Even though they took a ton of threes in this Comptus USA tournament, they're actually one of the lower three-point rate teams in the entire country, only 293rd to be exact.

But they are hitting over 38% in the season, Jelly Walker, over 40%. UAB is actually one of the highest mid-range jumper frequency teams in all of college basketball, which is bad news against Houston, who is seventh at defending mid-range jumpers. So the market has correctly priced this, I believe, Houston being a minus eight-and-a-half-point favorite. You know, if Jelly Walker is hot and they go up early, you might be able to Houston at a better number, but I will ultimately be passing. You know, you mentioned adjusted efficiency for offense and defense. Ryan Collinsworth has this incredible piece that he's done the past three seasons.

well, the past four, but three final fours because we missed one about, it's based on a formula that includes offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and margin of victory. And it has been incredibly accurate at predicting who would advance, right? And so based on this formula, the teams that he pinpoints have made it to the suite 16 every single year. All 16 teams advanced to the round or 32. 14 teams have made it of the teams that sort of fit this bill that he has predicted, have made it to the Sweet 16 in the past three final tournaments that he's written about. Ten have made it to the elite eight and five.

So that's five out of 12 and made it to the final four. You mentioned Houston, adjusted offensive efficiency. They're one of the 10 teams that qualifies along with Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Auburn, UCLA, Kansas, and Nova. So all teams that we've been talking about in both podcasts that we like to advance, you've got Kentucky and Zona in your final four, if I'm not mistaken. So, you know, we're aligning the stars here a little bit. All right, we talked about Davidson.

What a great match of that would be if they get to play Duke. There against Michigan State, we've now entered the games I will not be awake for. Michigan State, I always think Tom Inzo and Michigan State is over. were rated and inflated in the tournament, they're one and a half point favorites against Davidson. And you would be correct in this type of match. They are one of the more overrated teams in all of college basketball. So like I mentioned earlier, there's a site called shot quality that measures basically expected results for certain teams.

They, you know, keep track of what teams record should be based on the quality of shots they take and essentially expected points. So Michigan State finished the season with a six to ten record over the last 16 games. But if you look at their shot quality record in games, essentially they should. should have won. They only should have won one of them. They should have gone one in 15 to end the season. So for a team that is 299th in offensive efficiency in terms of their shot, shot selection, 334th and rim and three point rate, which are the two most valuable shots in half court offense, that has caused the Spartans to rank outside the top 200 in points per possession in both the

half court and transition. So even though Davidson isn't that great of a defensive team, Michigan State's not going to be able to exploit their weaknesses. Davidson also top 10 defensive rebounding teams. So there's going to be very few second chance points for the Spartans. If you haven't seen Davidson play, one of the best shooting teams in all of college basketball, they can just shoot anybody right out of the gym. I mean, they finished the season shooting over 38% from behind the arc, top six and both catch and shooting off dribble three-pointers.

They can really just do it all from behind the arc. The thing about Davidson, I mentioned earlier, they played a very, very slow tempo, one of the highest frequency teams coming in the half court. Their third in points per possession and half court offense, while Michigan State is outside the top 100 in defending in the half court. So that slow pace will be big in this match of Michigan State plays primarily a lot of their possessions in transition. So I just absolutely love Davidson. It's probably my favorite play in all of Friday.

But there is one good storyline here. Davidson's starting point guard foster lawyer played at Michigan State for three years. He was a captain there, but he mainly was on the bench. Transfer to Davidson this season was having a complete breakout years. They're starting point guard and now has a big time revenge spot to get his old team back. And also Michigan State has some injury concerns. Their point guard Tyson Walker is questionable for this one. So I really don't think the Wildcats should be underdogs at all here.

So I love Davidson. Moneyline plus two, whatever you want to do, throw it around Robin. That's my best bet for the entire Friday. You like Davidson to make, oh, sorry, Chad. You like Davidson to make a run this year? Yeah, though I, they are, I believe around eight or around seven to one, six plus six 80 on Fanduil to make the sweet 16. Wow. If they did by Michigan State, they are not going to be plus six 80 against Duke.

I can tell you that much. So I think that's a wonderful, wonderful price for the Wildcats to get to the sweet 16. Next up, we got the 14 C. Colgate Dental School versus three seed, Wisconsin, plus seven. Yeah, I, this is, uh, Wisconsin, essentially. essentially it's a home game for them because it's going to be in Milwaukee. But this Colgate team is going to give them a ton of problems. Similar to Providence, Wisconsin drastically overperformed and was pretty lucky to season. They were 15 and 3 in games decided by six points or less.

Now, that is actually one of the best records in all of college basketball history. So the narrative around there is like, well, they have the clutch gene and, you know, they can win these type of close games. Well, statistically, and as you know, Simon and Chad, that these type of things, tend to regress towards the mean. And you saw it in their last two games when they lost close games to Nebraska and Michigan State.

Matchup-wise, Colgate is the third most efficient three-point shooting team in the entire country. Their top 12 in points of possession, both the half court and transition. That transition number is key because Wisconsin, if this turns into a track meet, Wisconsin is terrible in transition. Now, Wisconsin offensively,

they have the big 10 player of the year, Johnny Davis, who makes up a ton of, it makes up for a ton of their, real inefficiencies on offense. However, he's coming off a brutal ankle injury, and he definitely wasn't 100% in the Big 10 tournament against Michigan State. Went three of 19 from the field, only scored 11 points. If he isn't 100%, the Badgers are in big, big time trouble. Also, the way to beat Colgate, he got to get out in transition. They are one of the 10 worst teams in college basketball and transition defense.

But Wisconsin, they play a really slow pace. They have the 12th highest frequency of their possessions coming in the half court. So they're not used to getting up in transition and beating Colgate or doing what they need to do to beat Colgate. So I love Colgate in this match, but another fun team to throw in a money line around Robin. Love them plus seven and a half. Love them on the money line. This is a really, really bad matchup for Wisconsin in the first round, even though it is kind of a home game in Milwaukee. All right.

Now we're ending it with like a couple of juicy, spicy money lines. I like that. Last game, TCU, Seton Hall, Seton Hall. Short favorite here. Yeah, another game that's similar. of the last game on Thursday, that might put you to bed earlier than expected. So if you're going to beat TCU,

you've got to keep them off the offensive glass. They are second in the country, an offensive rebounding percentage. And while Seton Hall isn't a great defensive rebounding team, they definitely have the size advantage down low, and they have some other advantages, that I believe will be able to outweigh that advantage that TCU has on the boards.

First off, Seton Hall is third in the country in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, which is basically all TCU does. They try to get all their shot attempts closer to the rim because they have the eighth highest rim frequency rate in the nation, but they're 320th in terms of their field goal percentage there. So that's a pretty big advantage for Seton Hall, even if they do give up those too many offensive rebounds of TCU can't put those back at the rim. Secondly, Seton Hall, seventh in the country in half court and points per possession allowed in half court defense. TCU plays an incredibly slow pace with a lot of their possessions coming in the half court. So Seton Hall, even though they're not a great defensive rebounding team,

I think this is a really good matchup for them against TCU, who yes, they'll get a lot of offensive rebounds, but they're not really efficient at putting those back up. So I love Seton Hall on the money line minus 110. I think they should be closer to two or three-point favorites. All right. We went through every Thursday game in part one. We went through every Thursday game in part two.

reminder, your final four, Texas Tech out of the west, Kentucky out of the east, Arizona out of the south, and Iowa out of the Midwest, and you like Arizona to beat Kentucky in the national championship game. First title for Arizona since 1997 is what it would be. BJ Cunningham, you did a Herculean job of lifting us through March Madness. we appreciate it. Everyone should go read your stuff, read all of our college best block coverage, Action Network app,

Action Network.com. For Simon Hunter, my BFF, my companion, for Matt Mitchell, our producer, I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorites

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You may think the NFL season is over, but now it's Tapehead's draft season. And this NFL podcast gives you the inside slant on all the top prospects. Hi, I'm Bob Wussuzin. Starting March 1st, I'll be joined by NFL films Greg Kosell, who studies the tape and provides the real story on which prospects fit which system and which are likely to make the most impact in the National Football League. Listen to Tape Heads draft season, premiering March 1st on the IHeart Radio app, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all,

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On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

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