The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - March Mailbag

Episode Date: March 4, 2025

Listeners have submitted dozens of questions, and Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to answer some of their favorites. Together they discuss the most hopeless franchises in the NFL, the biggest changes in sports betting since PASPA's repeal, the proper way to fight Chris Long, and so much more. Plus, they invite all Chicagoland fans far and wide to RSVP NOW for the free Favorites March Madness live event, March 29th at Joe's on Weed in Chicago. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from. some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest

survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She's an outsider to win the French name. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually, so you can win on any surface. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcasts on the Iheart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion. my confidre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Edo, so I'm in. Chad, how was your birthday week, brother?

Oh, my God. Dude, I got so lucky. I do a trip every year with friends, all my high school buddies and their wives. There's about 25 people that go. We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the highlight of my year. It is a phenomenal weekend, no kids. It is constant ball-busting, laughing.

It is truly a gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be the weekend of this trip this year. So it was just, it was a weekend of love and laughter. A day of love and laughter turning old. And it was fantastic, Simon. Just great. Well, so others were working watching the combine. So I'm happy you had a good time.

I was literally bored out of my mind. I always forget how much I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments, other moments. just like, what am I doing my life? Why am I even watching this? Am I gaining anything from this? So, yeah, another weekend of NFL Combine gone. And yeah, already onto the next season, brother.

It feels like that's the kickoff party. So into 2025 we go. I did get a nice text from you, which I loved. So kind of you to think of me on my birthday. I was going to call, but God bless women, dude. I was out to dinner with a girl. And luckily, I was with her the day before and told her I had texted you to make sure. Throughout the dinner, she goes, did you call your buddy, Chad?

I go, holy shit. I almost reach out to them before the birthday and didn't hit him on their birthday. So thank God for women. I'm a big fan of a preemptive birthday text. Like if I remember the day before, I'm like, oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the day before and be like,

this counts is your birthday text. I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow. Speaking of NFL, Simon, today is our first off-season mailback episode. We're going to answer questions submitted from listeners, as you would expect. so many of these questions are NFL related, so I'm glad you're thinking about it, I'm thinking about it.

We've both put in futures bets into the app. I've already put in, I think, the Niners, and I put in the Packers. You put in the Rams? I did. Put it the Rams in. Got it. Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation for what you. They did.

I liked the Rams. I said I just didn't bet them because of the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what was going to happen on Stafford, I was going to do it. And yeah, I mean, we can get into it, but it was definitely a weekend of rumors. I'll tell you that much, Chad. Like the whole staffer to the Raiders, I almost got caught in that one because I thought that was like legit going to happen. He was basically like a done deal kind of thing. And then the last minute, the Rams came back and we're just like, you know, we'll pay you. So yeah, glad I did not put the Raiders into the action app because that's

looking like a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So, yeah, glad I avoided the Raiders super bowl futures, but Well, look, if you would put in the Raiders, it could have been in our mailbag, 2026, is your worst futures bet of 2025, which is one of the questions that we have today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now, new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5, sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary, bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in.

Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, apply. Okay, before we get into the questions, don't forget. You can officially RSVP for our free, free, free favorites, live. show event in the greatest city in the world, Chicago, Illinois. This will be for the Elite 8 March Madness Games on Saturday, March 29th, the Joe's Bar on Weed Street, also known, more popularly known as Joe's on weed in Chicago. Free event, free drinks, free live show. You must

RSVP to reserve your spot. Follow the link in this episode's description. What are we doing there? we'll do an exclusive pregame Elite 8 betting show before tip with Stucky, Action Network OG Stucky, Jim Root, both of them on our big bets on campus podcast. Jim Root, of course, one of the three-man weave members, one of the best college basketball analytics groups in the country. We're going to break down the games from a betting perspective. We'll do some trivia giveaways. We should have another truckload of them.

merch on hand. Those who were in Philly can recall it was basically a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some folks might have asked why Chicago. One of the biggest reasons is Bet365 is launching in the state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All right. Simon, first question. The day before our Chicago live show, friend of the podcast, Chris Long, turns 40. Man's getting old. We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's hosted the Green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly, Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the question is, if we froze.

my current physical condition in place. What age would Chris Long have to be? For me, in Chad Milman, 20, 25 years, to confidently defeat him in a fight. What do you think the answer is? I mean, I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little scrapper that people perceive.

So I guess, just because he's a genetic freak, I guess at some point in his 80s, right? Like his hips, his knees, something's going to go on that guy. He's pushed his body. to limit. Chat here, not so much. So I feel like you have an advantage there. So I guess, yeah, I guess Chris Long 85, Chad could easily take him down. All right. So I thought a lot about this. And you know I exercise a lot. I'm on the rolling machine. I'm on the peloton. I do light weightlifting.

You know, I'm about bone density. I'm about flexibility. I'm about stability. I'm about eating right, I'm about B-O-2 max, all those things. I'm looking for health span, okay, not lifespan, health span. And I believe I am in better physical condition today than I've been in my entire life. So if I was able to freeze this in place, my diet consists of nuts, legumes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables, very little sugar. very little processed food. I am a specimen right now, Simon. I have tensile strength.

Tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step-ups. You've got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I did it at the gym when we were in Palm Springs. I went twice in the three days we were there. I love you think any of this is going to help you in a fight in any way. My point.

It's a good time for me to freeze myself in place. the age for Chris Long for me, you said 85, I wrote down 83. And my thoughts were by then, maybe he'll have let himself go. Like clearly he's a physical marvel, naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong. And then he did all the work required on top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, she's stronger. But I think by 83, maybe he's let himself go. I think some of the achiness from football, like he might not be able to move around.

I'll be able to, you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at 83. I said, that's the only way you could beat him. Because if he got his hands on you, it would, even at that age, old man strength. Like I was going to say, I've seen, like you were talking about you being in great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting.

And Chris had the ultimate cheat code. He has a house full of freak brothers who, sure they fought a ton growing up. So yeah, we would both need Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take them down. You're right. The brother factor and sort of the muscle memory of being in that position. It's not the same for me given that I had a sister who was seven years younger than I am. Not at all. All right. We get a lot of questions about your model. Namely, what are the most important inputs. So let's start with that question. Yeah, I always tell people like the start of the top, if you're trying to build a football model, the most important position, pretty basic, go to the

quarterback. And then I think not enough people realize the next position on, you know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers, those type of positions, right, Chan, we always talk about it's all about the deal on the O line. So for me, if you want to go D-line over O-line, no problem. I know plenty of people who value that higher than they do O line. I do put O line above D line and then you can build out from there. So yeah, for me, it really is all about the quarterback, the O lines, D lines. And then, you know, I know plenty of people that factor in the coaching. And, you know, the biggest adjustment this year, I mean, I know that's part of this question coming up. What's the, you know, adjustments I'm making to the model?

It's going to be, we talked about the fourth down success rate. Like, I can't overlook how important that was this past season, how much that changed football. Like we just, we've never seen it go up like it did this past season. That's something I really do need to factor in my motto of, you know, teams being more risk, averse. And that's, that is a big deal. And we talk about, like we did this past year, about the favorites compared to the dogs, right? The better quarterbacks, even if they're on that, but not that much better of a team, if the quarterback is such an important position that if these teams have the trust to go for on their fourth downs, rather than a team that, you know, like the Saints and Derrick are, which me and Chad have

zero faith on fourth down that this is going to be a completion. It is a big difference when you're talking about betting. Like I'm more, I'm more able to put money on a quarterback of a favorite that I believe in rather than a dog at this point with a quarterback I don't believe in because these fourth down tendencies are just, it's just different in the NFL than it was, just say four years ago. Like this is really a new age type of thing we're dealing with here. So that's definitely something this off season I'm going to dive way more into is the

fourth down success rate. When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings? Like to me, I would start top down, offensive power rating, defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then offensive line.

But I feel like those two sides plus quarterback would end up being like 85% of what I was looking at. You could, I use, what I use grader for, especially like pro football focus, like going to their grades about different players where I'm not keen in on, right? Like there's a couple guys that come into the league and you're not really sure about

and you're not paying attention to those teams and they kind of pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a player is good or not. And that's really like you're talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that

into your model, you can do that, but that is a ton of work. And, you know, that might muddy the waters a little bit because it could make you overadjust to different things. Like, you know, we joked about a group of, Bridgetjean join the Eagles, you look at how he ended of the year.

He ended out of the year is like a top five cornerback, nickel. That's the type of thing where you do need to be ahead of and adjust that in your model, the fact that he has improving a defense that much. So I agree with you. There are individual stats to dive into, but yeah, for what I do, no, it's kind of a median, right? I use them and a bunch of other different websites to try to give me one median number on each player grade rather than individual each player grade.

Right, but what I'm saying is, overall offensive power rating overall defensive power rating you're saying you know like that's dv oa though we talk about that all the time that's that's dv oa like you want to do that yeah why do you hate dvola i don't i just think it's like it's just the boring lazy man tool in a lot of ways right like the lines played the the the washington the playoffs dv oa they had a way better grade because they were better all season if they even they adjust while the season goes along you know DVO was going to favor big time the Lions team against that Washington team where when you really break it down their DVO is much closer because that Washington kept on improving

throughout the season towards heading to the playoffs or on the flip side the Lions were just dying like they were just slowly dying and there was nothing they could really do so I do I do explain to you I just think it's a tool where some people just simply use that as their metric for every bet they make on just I think that's way too risky and too basic to use like that. No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually, you and I've talked about this, for about the past month, been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs should be. And everyone I talk to, they don't use DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating.

Offensive line comes up less, defensive line comes up less, and then like success metrics, you know, because that's a new advanced analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how well you perform in those 10-yard increments, right? And so to me, that's a really interesting metric to start to think about if you are looking for new keys to analyzing teams because it tends to indicate how well a team is performing in the most basic of expectations, which is getting a first down. Yeah, but like those numbers that you're diving into there, that's also people looking for matchups that can take advantage of, right?

So, yeah, that makes total sense in my view. I like when you agree with me. makes me happy. As I get older, Simon, just makes me feel like I'm getting smarter, but so are you, because you're thinking on my level now as an old person. Looking back at last season, the worst futures bet you made. For me, it's easy. Like, I saw this question, and I didn't have to think hard at all.

I bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in the NFL. because I had so little faith in Sam Darnold. I thought the team needed to restock. I was not a fan of the signing of Andrew Van Ginkle and getting rid of DeNeil Hunter. So I just thought this is a team that is going to start over. Little did I know, Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that I thought he was. And Sam Darnel was going to have a brilliant year.

So for me, that's the one. Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely our worst take, but it's also why we love football, right? They were basically every one of those games were playaway pretty much for being, you know, four and 13. Like they had a ton of really good luck in one square games and Sam Darno played at an insane level that there is no one in the world that can say they knew that Sam Darn was going to play at that level for that whole season. So they're going to be coming up a lot here.

If we're talking about worst things we did this past season because it took me a minute. to believe in this Vikings team. Like I was fighting them. Like we talked about, we were heavy on them being the worst team. Like my three worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England. Nailed the other two, got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings. But we talk all the time. It's tough to know how these quarterbacks can perform in new situations and new teams.

And Sam Darnold, you know, totally, totally played out of this world. Just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like these guys get to these new teams. if they have the right coach and the right talent around them, it's pretty incredible what they can do. But, yeah, the Vikings clearly don't believe in them long term. They're letting him walk. What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker

that has been really impressive, that bodes well, I think, for him, back-to-back years now with a new offensive coordinator and did great both years, from Canales to Liam Cohn, and now he's going to have to do it again, I would be less worried about it if I were a Bucks fan, than I might have previously been

because he's proven what he's good at that he's got Moxie, the players get behind, and all of a sudden, I think that's a lot to build on versus, here's another journeyman QB

that we're not really sold on. I think that's going to be the problem with Donald is you're going to have to see if people really start to rally around him as he decided, if he ends up going somewhere else, and if he can repeat the success

the way Baker has done it. Simon, which individual game bet to you look back on and hate the most. I have a list of so many

and I've been trying to figure out which one I hate the most. You tell me what yours is. Mine's easy. It's week two. I'm almost positive. It was week two. It was 49ers versus the Vikings.

And it was like definitely one of these moments where like everyone thinks their shit don't stink. And I had a moment there where I was like I thought I was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect in this business they basically told me all week to bet my house on the Vikings versus the 49ers I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog or plus six and a half and I got down to four and a half four by kickoff and whatever

happened that someday and morning I not only that I load up on the four nineers I made you put them in the competition when we both knew I only said it to you this is going to lose but I need to bet it anyway Like, I have no idea what I was going through at that time period. My head must have just spinning because normally nine out of ten times I would have been on the Vikings in that spot. Ultimate trap spot, undervalue team as a dog at home. And yeah, my hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was when I was just like, fuck, that was such an amateur bet.

So that definitely haunted me this past season. I am going to go to first week of October. October 6th, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore Ravens. Yeah. Bengals are two and a half point dogs. That was brutal. We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back in it, nonstop in the first half of the year. We're thinking Bengals outright is the play. So two and a half is value. I swore you were going to go Bears, Bears commanders here, but that was such a Chad moment.

That was, God, that was pretty bad too. I forgot about it. You know what I was... I'm sorry, you blocked it out. I should never even

brought it up. You just buried that one. I totally forgot about it. Because the Bears game that was on my list was when we had the Lions minus nine and a half and they were dot,

they should have been up 35-thoupping in the first half and the Bears were covered. No, Cincinnati two and a half because that was a game that also to me, like the Bears,

whatever, the Bears, you know, they weren't a team that we believed in. They were a team that, that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was a bad beat.

But this was a beat that felt indicative of the season for us, where we're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst play he makes the entire season. And we end up losing the bet on a field go by a kicker who is having his worst season and happen to make his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like,

it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's like the extremes didn't go our way. No. And that game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season. They're brutal. You know what the game I'm talking about. Oh, yeah. I remember them all, brother.

I don't remember the wins, but I remember all the losses. Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like when I saw this question, I made a bunch of notes in the script. And I had seven or eight answers for this one, including any Tennessee boy bet at any point in the season and any Karen Alina bet in the first half of the season. And basically any Jets bet all season, right? Because they were fucking us all year.

The ones I liked, I basically had three games. A bet that I look back on and it still makes, me happy. I pinpointed Miami minus five and a half at the Jets in early December where, because Jeff Ulberg is such a bad head coach and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no business covering a six point spread, they did it in overtime against the Jets and it never felt like we were out of it.

Yeah. And then Carolina covering a six-point spread against Tampa first week of December also was a big one for me. Yeah, I would just say regular season, that's a big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucs, just because we love them, we hammered them. We kept saying that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks were going one way. The Panthers were going another way.

And, yeah, that one was going for the full season. I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's why I love the show. Like it was one of the rare times we really love the dog. We talked about them nonstop, even game out the money line. And it's the best because you hear a ton of noise those types of weeks, right? Because there's only four games going on, especially Lions fans, right?

They have every right to be really passionate about their team. And them and the line fans and the backers of that team were just non-finding. stop that whole week. Like anytime I'd say anything on social media, even if I didn't say shit, I was getting messages constantly, how big of a fucking idiot I am. And just to see that fact that they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that Jane Daniels played a perfect game, their defense had the three picks, the pick six, four interceptions, three off golf, but all of it just lined up. And it was just, you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle Games as a fan, those were the most fun games to watch. It's just a stray better. That Washington game was so much

fun to watch because of the buildup to it and the fact that it just kept going their way throughout the game right it was a nice slow burn of just dominating that Detroit team because it was I mean people forget it was back and forth the Troy was running for like 200 yards they could do whatever they want and then all of a sudden that pick six happened and it just flipped that entire game so yeah yeah that was a really fun memory that Washington Lions game here's another question Simon, so many of our listeners are pondering but are afraid to ask. Luckily, using my incredible powers of discernment, I am channeling that question right now. These listeners, they are uncomfortable in their daily lives. They lack the confidence to achieve greatness. What they access can they

do? How can they transform their lives for the better? What tools do they lack? Well, I've got good news listeners, everything you need is just to click away, one click to Tommyjohn.com slash favorites to transport you to a world of comfort, confidence, and transformative change. That's because our beloved sponsor, Tommy John offers flexible, breathable, high performance, comfort of top quality underwear and casual essentials, delivering the confidence you need to unleash your fullest potential. And with a special sale for our listeners ascending to a higher plane of existence, just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?

Because comfort is king. Right now, you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. This is going to be the eighth NFL season since PASPA, the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act, was repealed in May of 2018. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen, Simon, in NFL betting markets? What are some of the biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today? That could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny, you name it.

Oh, that's tough, brother, because I hate being negative, one in the off season, but People that bitch and moan about the good old days, they're kind of right in the systems. Everything is just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend. And things will get turned around in the future. I just think we're in a very weird time period right now

when it comes to sports betting, values. I mean, some books legit give out, I mean, Chad knows they give out a minus 120 on a side and a minus 120 on the other side. I can't believe that's legal in this country that these books can do that type of stuff. So it's, there's a lot. There's, there's so much I could go, we get to spend an episode on, a whole episode on

that type of question, but my biggest one I always preach to people is have multiple books. I hope you're in a state where you have multiple books where you can price and shop around because, I mean, every dime does matter. Every, every cent they take from you on the line does matter. And that adds up if you want to be a long term successful better. It's a big deal. But to me, the good thing in this. industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to know people at different sports books

work with guys. And there are good guys out there running books that will take bets and you can work with them. And they'll reach out to you and try to help bounce their books out. But a couple of the books that are just too big to fail that can do whatever the hell they want. It's just a different, totally different world. So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just shop around, find the best number and the best line. It's so interesting. You say, you know, every dime matters if you want to be a long-term, successful, better. I don't know if people do want to be that.

You know, when we started action, and when I saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same game parlous. And I don't mean that as a negative or a positive. the question was, what is the biggest difference? Obviously, same game parlays were not a thing. Before we launched action and before the repeal of PASPA, they just didn't exist, right? And so when we launched action, we thought everyone would want to bet the way we do, which is you don't care about the team that's playing. You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price on sides, totals.

that's really where that's the markets that were most dominantly available and that's how we approached it that's how operators were approaching it and so we that remember this we wanted best bet no matter the team at best price with the biggest edge parley's have become so popular same game parley's have become so popular and while there are certainly edges and we do our to identify the edges and the opportunities and the value and all these things, those still aren't the bets that you make that are the most ROI positive, the most positive EV. And so it turns out people kind of just want the worst bets on their favorite team

that's going to make them the most money in the shortest amount of time. And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference is the advent of these parlay markets. Yeah, and I've obviously tons of people I grew up with friends that I've known a long time. That's I could tell them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going to want to do their own take their own test, right? They don't want to bet the smart syrup sides like you talk about. Well, they might throw my bet into the parlay, but what you just talked about, so true, Chad.

I don't argue against it because you're right. Most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contest. That's why most people listen to us. we're trying to help them with their pick contests and give their view of a different perspective on a pick contest where you know most beters these days especially guys i know if they have a hundred dollars to bet that sunday they want to do 10 different five team t parlays or whatever with $10 on each one and they're hoping to hit just one of them to get their money back or maybe make 20 bucks on top or something like that like i i get that's a lot of the people now and you know chad knows we have the numbers that back it up but i still think there are a lot of guys that they like to see the other side of it and how the pros do do it so I do think there is a market for what we do which is you know pick game straight up which is we talk all the time it's hard as

shit you want to go make easy money go bet player props right that's that's an easy market that's a small market and you know if you don't need to get big money down you can bet player markets but if you want to make real money long term like chad just talked about you got to bet it's straight. It's the only way. These guys online posting their five team parlays making a million dollars every week. Only suckers fall for that. Anyone that's in this long enough knows that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting both sides. They're messing with you. It's not real. It's fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there. People want me to call people out all the time. And it's just like it's a waste. People need to learn. Like all, everyone's gone through it.

Everyone's been a sucker online at some point. You had paying picks to someone that's a fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlayes all week is going to keep hitting them for the rest of the year where it's like, no, that was the one week this year it's going to hit. So Chad's right. It's a weird way the sports betting world is gone, but I saw it coming a mile away. It's everyone views sports betting as a get rich quick scheme. And it's just, that's the biggest lie they're being sold. It just simply is not.

Well, I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. No. I feel like I've been pretty prescient about this business and where it was going. and I thought like I thought player props would become much, much bigger and they have, and I'm a fan of them. And I think that that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating to watch. I did not see sort of the parley market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's fascinating to see it.

And we covered as best we can. But to me, that's the biggest difference in sort of pre-PASPA and post-PASPA is, you know, you're less, I am, you're more cynical than I am. So I didn't think people would want to get rich quick in sports betting because it seems impossible. to do it. I figured people want to just be good at this because they're enjoying it for watching the sports and they want to make a little bit of money and feel connected and be the smartest person in the room, all the things that interest me in it. So yeah, the SGPs were a surprise for sure. Change can happen quickly in the NFL. As of today, Simon, what NFL would you least like to be a fan of because their status, their future, their hopes,

feels least, feels most hopeless. I mean, it's hard because that's why we love football, right? Is that your team can be changed on one draft, right? We saw that with Washington. I mean, how I saw that with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback in there, a couple of pieces fall into place, you can change your organization.

And that's what, so special about football, but some organizations can just cannot get it right. Does not matter what, what they do, even if they get the guy. They let the guy either a coach or whoever, they let them out of the building. So for me, the team, I don't know what the hell they're gonna do going forward.

It's the Saints. I really don't know what the Saints are gonna do and what their game playing is. Maybe they found their head coach, maybe they found their guy and he can show some things this year and then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever. It's just when I really dive into their numbers in their team and how bad they

done in drafts, money management, all of it. I just, I feel like it's about to be 10, 15, 20 years of just the dark ages right now for the Saints. So they're definitely my number one. I had them on my list. They were the first team I thought of as well. And then I added on my list, Browns, Titans, and Raiders. Saints, for all the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is kind of bare.

They've got huge cap management issues. They have not historically drafted that well. Browns, they've got the Deshawn Albatross, they've got ownership that I just don't think is very good, all that savvy, reputationalally not known as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community. Now their best player in a generation in Miles Garrett wants out because he sees how bad things are. They have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they can get, you know, turn Cam Ward. into something brilliant, but the grades on him are not can't miss prospect. The Titans, because I think there's a lot of the issues, like they're drafting number one at a

time where there isn't a can't miss prospect in a position that can really change the game. And the Raiders, not great ownership, totally bare-covered, just complete utter mismanagement from every level over the past 10 years, I would not want to be a fan of that team. All fair. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit.

With the Edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook. daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no-brainer. Plus, your Edge Boost debit card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built-in tools to help you stay responsible, and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances.

So stop leaving money on the table. Visit Edgeboose.combet to sign up. if you use promo code favorites and deposit $25, you'll receive a $25 deposit match, $25 deposit match, plus tier two status for faster bank deposits and more cash back. That's edge boost.bett promo code favorites. Simon, last two questions.

We cannot leave the show as members of football covering media without asking this question, is Aaron Rogers relevant as a player? If I'm a terrible team that has no option a quarterback or I want to sit a guy for a year, I'd bring him in, why not? He did get better as a season went along. I know that's not saying much to a lot of people,

but it's such an ugly gross position, Chad. I mean, there's just some teams that just have nothing at the position. So, yeah, would I rather have him than, you know, the 30th or Marcus Marriota, who I love Marcus Marriota as a backup, but you don't want him as one of the 30s, a 32 starting quarterback. So, yeah, do I think Roger still as a place

in this league, sure, but it's just hard because we're so used to him being great. And, you know, a lot of people don't like him because it was off-field antics and what he says off-field, but just strictly on-field, I guess I'd still take him. Like, if you have nothing at the position,

I'd give him a job just because he does have these moments of brilliant. and he does not a commanding offense, but yeah, it's just sad times. I mean, you know, this might be it for him this year as a starter in this league. I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can read his mind,

you're destined to be disappointed. I think he will come in and change the chemistry of your franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand until he's in the building. I think the only reason he's relevant is because people still like to talk to him and talk about him because he's always going to give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking he's the smartest guy in the room, kind of think he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons alone, you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are those football reasons? No. But he's still going to be

a guy that has relevance because of Aaron Rogers at the tail of his career and things haven't been going well. And the expectations are always so high. So yeah, he's relevant, unfortunately. Last question. Last question. We started the show talking about inputs for models. offensive line, defensive line, quarterback, what is your least relevant position?

In football? Sheesh, man, they're all tough. I thought about this a lot. I had two answers. Yeah, I would say, I guess it is

because it's kind of gone extinct would be the fullback. That was my answer. That's a good one. I would say fullbacks would go one. I'm trying to think it's like, I like to make fun of kickers and punters, but they're crazy important.

Like they're crazy important to the team. If I had to put one down, though, I would say you could win a game of all the positions that have the worst player in the entire field. You could win a game if your slot corner, I guess, is just absolutely terrible. Like if there's one position, you could get away

on the field, because everyone else, like if your linebacker's awful, if there's a guy in the line that's just the worst player in the team, safety, cornerback. Yeah, I think, I think Nichols is the only place you get away with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can just double that guy. And, you know, yeah, that's really tough, though. That's tough. Worst, the least important position on the field is really tough.

Well, I think the least important position has to be the position that is basically no longer in existence. How many fullbacks can you name, right? There's like three fullbacks and two of them. them, one of them plays for the Ravens and one of them plays for the Chargers and one of plays for the Chiefs. And the fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just being guys that the Harbaughs like to play both ways. And so I think that's got to be the least relevant because they don't even have to be on the field. Their impact is so minimal.

I thought punter or kicker for less than half a second because anybody knows kickers forget about how important they are. Puntors, you have two bad punts in a game. It could fuck you. It could change the entire tenor of the game. Yeah, brutal. We're going to do another mailbag. I didn't get to all the questions today. We are going to do another mailbag because they come flying in so we want to get to as many as we can.

As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 and bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150

in bonus bets. bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older in present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Don't forget, sign up for the favorites live event.

You got RSVP. Joe's on weed in Chicago, March 20. Elite 8 Saturday. I'm going to be there. Simon's going to be there. Stucky's going to be there. Jim Rute from Three Man O'Eave and the Big Betts on campus podcast is going to be there.

We'll do an exclusive show talking about the games that day, plus some hangouts. Those are great events. Joe's on Wheat in Chicago. RSVP in the link in the episode. Description, Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern with special guest Field Yates.

talking NFL. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast. Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. is telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves,

their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicalife 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless, and at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garros. Jen, she's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerner-Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface.

Listen to the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast on the I-Hart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.