The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - MLB Season Best Bets

Episode Date: April 1, 2022

Opening Day is almost here, and our dedicated Action Network team wants YOU to profit all season long.That's why Chad Millman and his pro gambler sidekick Simon Hunter invited Action baseball editor (and Baseball Prospectus alum) Collin Whitchurch and senior writer Sean Zerillo to the show this week. Together the tandem give their favorite picks for the upcoming 2022 Major League Baseball season, and celebrate the launch of the latest Action podcast PAYOFF PITCH. Next week Collin and his Payoff Pitch crew will break down every MLB division, plus betting picks for MLB slates every Tuesday and Friday morning all season long.On today's episode, Chad and Simon learn about the best World Series futures to buy, season win totals to bet, and even some statistical leader longshots to hit before the season swings into action next week!So check out Payoff Pitch wherever you like to listen!Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/payoff-pitch/id1615600022Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3PKYHfrB9PW57vZQNKTgxHiHeart: https://iheart.com/podcast/94495831/And good luck this MLB season! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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be 21 and over in present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Louisiana. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-next-step or text. Next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-800-G or visit Fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-117 for confidential help in Michigan. 877-7-7-70 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's almost time for baseball season. We are days away from first pitch.

Colin Whitchurch, Action Network, Senior Editor for Baseball, Sean Zerillo, long-time senior writer, senior baseball analyst. You can see them all over the airways on MLB Network. You see them on Action Network. They've got a brand new podcast, first episode launching. It's called Payoff Pitch. Simon, how excited are we for baseball? My professional betting BFF companion, compadre.

Chad, this is the best time. me here. We got the very end of March madness. We got playoffs coming up in hockey, playoffs coming up in basketball and the start of the MLB season where I literally lose all my betting money on MLB the first two weeks and then I come back probably mid-July to start losing some more money. So I just bet way too much when it comes back because I'm just so fired up where it's like, oh, first five innings, give it to me, all of it. I just won it all. So I am so happy that lockout ended and it's back. I missed baseball. Well, look, this is what's cool. You know, Colin spent years at baseball. He comes at it from a very specific point of view. Zirillo, we know, digs so deep into the

data. That's literally every single baseball game. And there are so many different markets for baseball. You can be betting run line. First five, you can be betting totals. It doesn't really matter. Like the way you can bet this sport now, there's so many opportunities. It's a grind. Like you got to keep up with it. And that's what Sean and Colin are for. That's why they're here. I always love this because Sean will come on at the beginning of the baseball season. And I'm going a little more in depth because we have so many new listeners. Like some people don't know that much about betting baseball and sort of the joys of betting baseball. When you come on, Sean, you will give us like the long shots of the long shots.

And by the end of the year, we're like all these games that he talked about in March, it's now these teams, it's coming to fruition. Sean Zerillo, can't wait for you guys to get started. I can't either, Chad. I've got 50 futures bets already in the Action Network app. I've been firing on stat prop leaders all day. So like most hits, most runs, most RBIs, pitcher wins, pitchers strikeout, stuff like that. So we're digging into the player data finally, put out all of my World Series futures

and divisional futures last week. But we've moved on to the player projections. I'm going to get into some MVP's and Cy Young's next week right before the season starts, too. All right. Well, listen, I do want to sort of break this down in very specific ways. I want us to go World Series futures, a couple of season win totals. Then I'm going to want, I want to get a little bit into some of the sort of more glamorous player props. Okay.

Colin, since you're relatively new to the podcast, you're one year into your reign as baseball editor at Action Network. You started exactly a year ago almost when baseball season was starting. Now's your chance. Wow us with your World Series future bet. I'm going to go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus 900 to win the World Series. Look, if the Blue Jays had the name Boston or New York across the front of their jersey, I think people would be hyping them up a lot more than they are currently. This is the best team in a loaded AL East.

They lost Marcus Simeon and Robbie Ray in the offseason, but brought in Kevin Gousman, who is a legitimate ace to replace Ray. They brought in Matt Chapman, who had a dead. down your offensively last year, but it's going to improve their defense a lot and probably rebound with the stick. The rotation is insanely deep with five established major league pitchers, and that's before you even get to guys like Ross Stripling, who's a competent swing man, nor Nate Pearson, a top prospect not all that long ago who's dealt with injuries in the last few years. Anything they get from him is just an added bonus. Their bullpens a little bit of a

question mark, but they have a lot of established competent major league leaguers there like Adam Simber, Yumi Garcia. Jordan Romero is a closer. that everyone's going to be grabbing in their fantasy leagues if they haven't already. He doesn't have a lot of name recognition, but again, has a chance to be one of the top closers in the league. Their win total right now is 92 and a half. So I obviously like the over there. That's one of my favorite bets, but World Series odds at plus 900 right now.

That's right in line with the Yankees. But they're a significantly better team than the Yankees, significantly better team than the Red sucks. So I really like them at plus 900. I got to say, even only as the Blue Jays, their odds are the second shortest. It's the Dodgers and then the Blue Jays. And you make the point about if it was Boston

or if it was the Yankees. That's like how much respect they're already getting from the market that if someone is just coming to baseball, all someone knows about baseball is the Braves won the World Series. They hibernated. They woke up. They found out Will Smith, slapped Chris Rock,

and that the baseball lock had ended, they'd be like, Blue Jays, plus 900. Zirillo, how did this happen? How did this team get so good? Yeah, they've continually added throughout the offseason. And, you know, what's really interesting is they weren't second in odds until last Tuesday or Wednesday, Chad. When my article dropped, they were sitting behind the Yankees. They were around 1,200, 1,200 in some spots.

My article dropped, they were plus 950 at Fandwell within 90 minutes. I know we moved that number. I know our listeners move that number. When we put out content and we say there's a good number to bet, forget my projections, right? We'll look at Fangraph's projections, very similar to my projections. fan graph says the J's at 44% to win the division, 12.3% to win the World Series. That should be around plus 125 plus 700, respectively. I think there's still value in the Jays number.

That's my biggest World Series bet, got it at 1,200. I have a unit and a quarter on the Jays to win the World Series. The other two World Series teams that I sprinkled, I have a half unit on the Brewers at 16 to 1, and I have a quarter unit on the Phillies at 40 to 1. I think getting the second seed, particularly me, NL, is going to be very, very important. You get two teams with the buy this year. So advancing to the second round, there's that three-game wildcard series. So getting that second spot, getting that second buy and moving on is going to be very important.

And I would imagine that the brewer is given the relative strength or the weakness of the teams in their division are going to have a good shot of pulling that off. Dodgers plus 500, Blue Jays plus 900, Astros plus 1,000, White Sox plus 1100, Yankees plus 1100. raise plus 1,100 Mets plus 1150, then you got the Braves and Brewers plus 1150 and then plus 1,200. It's interesting to me, Simon, I apologize, I just want to get this one point out, that teams like the White Sox, teams like the Mets,

teams like the Braves, teams like the Brewers, they were all in that same category last year, like teams that were creeping into the upper echelon of the shortest odds, getting the most action. That's a pretty significant seat change to me, Colin, like now for the second year in a row, you're getting these teams that have moved beyond, oh, this would be a surprise and a fluke to, oh, yeah, this is the expectation.

Yeah, it is the expectation now. I think people have started to look past the will they, and now it's moving to the, why haven't they yet? You know, you mentioned the White Sox, obviously, a team that I know very well. It's World Series expectation. I think after what we saw from the Brewers last year and with their top three starting pitchers of Corbyn,

Brandon Woodruff, and Freddie Peralta, it's no longer, wow, we really have a shot. It's we need to do this and we should do this. And I think betters are recognizing that as well, where there's more of an expectation. And, you know, some of the regular contenders from years past, the Yankees, the Red Sox, you know, they haven't been there in a while now. So it's more wide open than ever. We saw the Braves win the World Series for the first time in almost 30 years.

Last year, the rays are right in there all the time. Now nobody, they're not sneaking up on anyone anymore. The rays aren't, the Brewers aren't, et cetera. There's now more of an expectation for these teams. They're the new heavyweights, you know, and people are starting to recognize. that instead of just going with the traditional powers and then letting these other teams sneak up on them. All the pressures on Sean this year, because last year at this point he gave us 50 to 1 Brewers last year, which was an amazing call and the 25-1 Houston Astros, which again was an amazing call.

The market has caught up this year. Obviously this season, these teams that kind of had these sleeper status, like Chad and I touch on, aren't really there. I kind of look when there are seasons like this with baseball, I look to bet on teams where I feel like I'm just talking a little bit, where Boston's down a little bit. but they're 25 to 1 right now, Fandall. Is that a sneaky team where people are just down on them this season, where I've looked at their prospects they have coming up. I've seen their bullpen, their pitchers and stuff like that. There just seems like there's a lot of upside to this Boston team

where people are going to be all talking about the Blue Jays, everyone's talking about the Yankees. And I just see there's going to be value in this Boston team this upcoming season. What do you think, Sean? So I pulled five different projections in addition to making my own. And pretty much everybody has the same order of Blue Jays or Yankees, one or two, raise three and Red Sox four.

And there's, you know, very, very similar projections between the raise and the Red Sox. That said, year over year, the raise continue to get under projected. They're usually three or four wins underneath their win total when you average out the market projections. And because I factor a defense more and other things, I tend to be more in line with the raise. So I actually have the raise ahead of the Yankees so far by about, you know, half a win, two-tenths of a win, have them both closer to 91.

And then I have a tier drop sort of to the Red Sox closer to 85, 86 wins. So I can see them threatening for a wildcard spot. but I don't know if those odds are really going to get, you know, much better or much worse throughout the year. I think they're going to kind of stay in the same range just because it's so difficult, even with the expanded playoffs, to imagine them getting past at least two, if not three teams in their division. Hold on a second. Simon, when are you doing research on prospects and bullpens? Fantasy baseball season, man. I'm all in. I told you, I go all in hardcore for like a month here, and then I get back into football draft. So this is like my time for baseball.

I love it. I mean, again, I grew up on that Philly's 2002 to 2012 run. So it's like I grew up in the best era I could possibly live in for Philadelphia baseball. So I just love baseball. If we look down the futures odds page, if we want to get the most bang for our buck, who are we looking at, say, from the LA Angels at 20, 22 to 1 down? You got the Angels, the Mariners, the Giants, the Giants. the Cardinals, the Phillies, all in that, 20 to 30 to one range. Sean, you mentioned the Phillies, obviously. Who else are we talking about here in like long, long range, Colin? I want to give you a team that I know Sean's going to disagree with here, a very contentious team among the MLB writers here at the Action Network, and that's the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners haven't been to the postseason in 22 years, 2001, when they won 100. 16 games and got bounced in the playoffs. That was the last time we saw the Seattle Mariners in the playoffs. I'm drinking the Mariners Kool-Aid this year. They added Robbie Ray to the rotation. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball. We're going to see Julio Rodriguez this year. We're going to see Jared Kellenick, who we saw a little bit last year struggle, still one of the top young talents in baseball. They're brimming with young guys who are ready to make that leap. Chad, you talked about teams that were kind of under the radar waiting to make the leap. The Mariners are the next. team on that list. They're going to break that playoff drought last year. They're going to break that playoff drought this year. And we're going to start seeing them as perennial World Series contenders for years to come. So I think there's a lot of value on them in that kind of mid-tier range. So really, you were nodding. You don't hate what witch church is saying. No, I mean, I get the argument, you know, and I get anybody who's buying into Seattle. That said there's a lot of arguments

that I could make going against them, right? So I improve their true talent projection by 10 wins over the offseason, I upgraded the type of team they were by 10 wins, which was amongst the highest upgrades I made. But they still overachieved by 14 wins last year. Their run differential suggested that it should have been a 76-win team, ended up winning 90 games because they led the league in fun differential. They're the kings of fun. Now, looking around the projection market, right, there is no bigger disagreement in terms of an under between the consensus projections and a team other than the meritors. I have them projected at 79.7. The market range is as low as is 76 and as high as 83. So every single projection that I use likes the Mariners to go under

85 and a half. I actually got an under 86 and a half, which I loved. I'd probably still bet this down to 84 and a half. Get all the arguments and the reasons why the Mariners could potentially compete. I see all the prospects coming up. And frankly, it's a weak ALS this year too. I'm backing the Angels personally, who's a team I've been against the past couple of years, but I just think the Mariners are a bit overinflated than their win total. And it's a high bar to clear. I love how impuged curious Zirillo can sound when he's talking about his projections and his rankings, you have to have a level when you're when you're making models, which Zerillo does, Chris Raybon does it, Sean Kerner does it,

when you're making models, you have to have so much confidence in the work that you're doing in the numbers you're creating because you are betting a fuckload of money on these things on a day-to-day basis. Zerillo, how long does it take you to build up confidence in that model? It's taken a few years, you know, and I continue to evolve, right? So it's every time I add something, it's almost like I have to go through a new trial period of like, did I screw up by adding this element in or is this going to improve my process? So every time, you know, every year and sort of April, I like, I change something and then I'm a little bit hesitant about firing more aggressively on totals. This year, too, we have other factors to consider.

like all 30 parks are using a humidor this year. They keep swapping out the baseball. So I might not go as aggressively on totals in April as I have in years past. But yeah, it's, you know, it's something that if I see a huge disagreement where I'm either way low or way high on a team, I'm going to dig into it further. But if I'm sort of in the range with the rest of the projection market, I feel pretty confident that my process is at least sound. And, you know, I may have a slight difference from another projection.

But as long as I'm within the range of outcomes, I feel pretty confident in it. do you think there are teams that have better value that you would rather bet to win the pennant versus the World Series? Colin, you go first. If you're looking at value in that way, the American League is the way to go just because the Dodgers are such a strong favorite in the National League. Once it gets to the playoffs, the Dodgers are just, they're tough to beat. I mean, we saw a team beat them last year, but the American League is generally the way to go. The team I like to look at from a pennant standpoint is the raise. The rays are always impossible to produce.

project. Most projection systems have been wrong on them for most of the last five years as they continue to just overstep their expectations. But they're also a team that once they get to October, they're even tougher to project somehow because of their pitcher usage, because of the way they manage their bullpen. Kevin Cash gets a lot of credit as the manager, but the front office runs that that day to day. They're consistently undervalued there. And I think that at the plus 750 plus 800 range, I like the value there, just them to make it because they're going to get to October. I think the odds of them getting to October are very strong. And once they make it there, their path becomes a lot more clear.

And so I enjoy finding odds in that way. Yeah, I'd see if you see a number that's more than 50% of the World Series number. I'd take it. You know, there's, I think I saw some like plus 900 floating on there on the Brewers where their World Series odds are plus 1,600. So I'd look for discrepancies like that. But by and large, I rarely. bet independent futures as opposed to World Series futures.

Love to hear what you guys think about win projections because I'm terrible at it. I always think I can do it. I listen to people and I'll try to bet off of it and then make my own opinion. But it really is one of those you need to build a model and just bet that model because it is so. We've just seen it comes down to a couple of games. I mean, you always have the weird teams that go over by 10 or 20 games. But usually the bookmakers are so good at it. It really does come down to maybe four or five games.

Yeah, I'd say half, about half the league every year is within like three wins of their win total. It's very tight. You have some, you know, huge outliers like the Giants last year who were the biggest to ever exceed their win total by 30 plus games. They crush their pro quota projection as well. So there's two unders and two overs that I'm targeting this year. Actually, two unders in the AL and two overs in the NL. But let's stick with the AL because I think those are too much contentious teams. We talked about the Mariners before, right?

I like they're under. the Tigers are the other team who were the buzz team coming into the year. I grabbed some early World Series value on them at 75 to 1. I didn't really like what they did with their offseason after that. But meanwhile, their futures odds dropped to that like 40 to 1, 30 to 1 range. Similar to the Mariners, every single projection likes this team to go under this year. As low as 70, 67.4, the high is 75. My projection leans towards the high.

I'm at 73.6, but I got an early under 80.5. I'd continue to bet this under 78.5 all the way down to 70. 76 and a half. The one over that I like, my favorite over is the Marlins, over 75 and a half out there right now. A lot of projections actually have them finishing closer to 500, which is surprising, because this is a very good and a least division this season. My number is closer to 79, and I'm not even the high man on the board. There's an 80.1 out there from Fangarraf. So Marlins over 75 and a half, Mariners under 78 and a half, and I should say the Mariners that are 84. That's my bad. Those are my three favorite win totals for this season. Colin, what do you got?

Oh, look at Cirillo, just jumping in and, like, trying to direct traffic here. It's like you guys are practicing the payoff pitch right on our show. I'll take my cue there. My two favorite win totals this year are really ugly, disgusting win totals, among the worst teams in baseball. And I'm buying into the hype of how bad these teams are going to be. My first one is with the Oakland Athletics. You've all seen the movie Major League, I presume.

That's what's happening to the Oakland Athletics right now. Oh, you're not. all us. We're a major league baseball team. But nobody recognizes us, not even in our own hometown. The Oakland athletic ownership is actively trying to make them lose games and not necessarily in a way like we saw with teams like the Cubs and the Astros early last decade where they're trying to like save money while while building up the super farm. This team is just like outright making the worst team it possibly can. Its projections are a little high right now because they still have Frankie Montes and Sean Mania in the rotation, who they've been actively shopping all offseason,

will probably be moved by July at the latest. The wind totals right now are 70 and a half, 71 and a half range. This is a 100 loss roster. I don't see any way this team doesn't finish in the last place in the AL West, even behind the Texas Rangers. A hundred losses are within question. I think that the projections are way too high here. And the second team is the team that's going to be competing with Oakland for worst record in the American League, and that's the Baltimore Orioles. Oh, no, we suck again. This team loses 100 games every year. They're currently projected at 62 and a half.

Like the A's, they are consistently trying to be bad. They don't even tinker on the margins. You see a lot of bad teams like the pirates who will make all these stealth, you know, waiver claims and try to find these reclamation projects. Baltimore doesn't do that. They just stand Pat and they sign bad veterans who they're going to flip at the deadline. They do have a couple of intriguing prospects who are coming down the pipeline. Adley Ruchman, a lot of people know a former first overall pick is going to take over at catcher pretty soon.

They have Grayson Rodriguez, who's one of the most intriguing young pitching prospects out there. But I don't know if or when we're going to see them. And even with them, you know, one or two players don't make that big of a difference in a win total in MLB. I think we're going to get another 100 losses. They're going to be in the 50s again this year. So Oakland and Baltimore under, those are my two favorite bets. Ugly one. I love the stat.

Oh, go ahead, Simon. I love the stat that Max Schurzer gets paid more this season than the entire. Orioles team, which is pretty incredible. That one guy makes more than entire team is going to make. Simon, I actually have a Max Scherzer story. Would you like to hear it? I would love that. When I was a student at the University of Missouri Journalism School many, many moons ago, I was in a class and you had to cover a Missou sporting event that was the assignment. You had to go to the live event and cover it and then do an AP style right up at the game. I put it off and put it off. So I didn't have a lot of options left.

I finally decided, you know what? I'll borrow my roommate's car. I'll go to the baseball stadium. I'll cover a Friday night game. It'll end pretty early. I can still drive back, type it up, go get hammered, or whatever I was doing back then. I go to this game.

There's nobody there. Mizzou's playing, I think, like, Western Illinois. And this guy, Max Scherzer, who I didn't know, who was also a sophomore. He was my classmate at Mizzou, 20 years old, just like me, he pitches a no-hitter through seven innings. He strikes out 14 dudes, but he's top prospect guy or whatever, so they pull him in the middle of a no-hitter.

They bring in another guy. I think he's name was Michael Cole. He finishes the no-hitter, has no idea a no-hitter's going on. He gets the last out, and they mob him, and he looks totally baffled because it was 25-0-0-Mazoo. I go to one baseball game, and it was a 20-year-old. 25-0-0-0-hiel-out. It's a Max Scherzer no-hitter. It's the first Mizuno hitter in like 25 years. And then after the game, it's me and one other dude, one-on-one with Max Scherzer, interviewing him on the field. For my first interview ever, and I do remember he has the two different colored eyes.

And I didn't know that. I was so close to him. It's very disconcerting. That's my Max Scher's story. And I assume he'd still remember it very well and we're best friends. Oh, I have no doubt your best friends. Perfect. I was just going to say, look, the Orioles, last year, what do they have, a 19 game, losing streak? There were a couple teams last year. The Orioles felt like one of them. The Royals felt like one of them. The Marlins felt like one of them at times where every single night you were betting on one of those teams because the line was so egregious. You know, Zerillo, we always talk about in your projections like if there's a 2% edge, a 3% edge, you feel obligated to bet it.

How do you manage that with teams that you know are going to be terrible? Who's going into the sportsbook and is ready to fire on an Orioles over? Who's going in the sportsbook and is going there with the intention of firing on a Pirates over? I just need to be contrarian from the sense that my numbers are coming in a few wins higher than these teams, regardless of how terrible they are. So you have to just take the best available number. Like Orioles over 62 and a half, I'm not taking that.

I found it over 60 and a half, so I'm going to play that, right? When you see a number that's, you have to set a cutoff before you even go in and look at the numbers where at this number I have to play it because you can't see the number and go, get a little wishy-washy about it. So set your targets, play your targets regardless of the name on the front of the jersey. It sucks. I'm not going to lie to you, but I'd rather lay two units on the Orioles now at their win total and not think about it and then look to play them during the season when, you know,

they get a three-game road series against the Yankees and they're plus 300 every game. just need them win one of those to come out ahead. So yeah, the diamond backs for the other team that you were thinking of, they had that 24-game road to losing streak last year, which I believe is an MLB record now. So we're on the diamond backs over this year. So best of luck to us. I can't tell you how many times Sean and I both were on the same side of Arizona

when they were like plus 300 last year. And they just would break our heart time and time again. But they were one of the most unlucky teams in baseball last year. And like Sean, I'm on there over as well this year. they're going to bounce back a little bit. They had a lead in like every one of those games, too, and they would just blow it in anything. It was delightful.

How much does a guy like Bucks Showalter matter for the Mets? How much of a difference can he make for win totals, for pennant for World Series? That's a good question. Managers aren't something that I've tried to like analytically handicap yet or put a number on. Guys like Kevin Cash, you know, they work so closely with the front office.

It's almost like the front office and cash or managing the team is one. And I think that's more what the Mets are going to get out of show, Walter. He is a very analytically inclined guy. And I think it's possible that he helps these younger guys develop to and stills him with confidence. So I certainly like seeing the Mets make a change and going to somebody who's competent, as opposed to a manager like Luis Rojas, who had no major league experience. I think that alone is certainly an upgrade. But in terms of like actually quantifying it or putting a number on it,

not something I've tried to do yet. I think it's hard to quantify over the course of a full season. Also, when I'm looking at managers, I'm more looking at October track record. And I know, you know, someone like Tony LaRuees has a great October track record, but he doesn't have a great track record of game management lately. So if I'm looking at a team with a manager who I know really well, it's like I'm not going to go anywhere near a pennant or a World Series future for the White Sox

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Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or we're you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the

VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode, with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.

So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of. too. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Again, join Fandual today with promo code favorites. Then you can place your $5 bet to score

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Brought to you by the ad council. So we'll start with player props here. Sean, last year, again, I can't thank you enough, man. I cash huge. Vladdy was, I think, 50 to 1 to lead them while being on runs. I am almost positive I was watching the game. I might have either been his last at bat or is that bat before it to tie the major league lead with the,

the catcher from Kansas City, I think it was, Perez. Crazy. I mean, honestly, one of the most fun bets I had because I had like $25 bucks on it, 50 bucks on it, 100 bucks. I get all these different little bets I'd made, whatever it was for that last week leading up to it. And that, to me, that was my biggest hit by far in baseball last year. Do you have any other player props this year where you think you have a good shot at a 50

to 1 or greater? I'm going to give you an exactly 50 to 1, Simon. And I like this bet just as much. We were on Vlad, most term run, and most RBIs last year around the same price range. My guy this year is Kyle Schwerver. I love everything about this bet. I know Chad likes him some Kyle Schwerber. 50 to 1 out there at a couple books.

So Schwerber pays for 41 home runs last season. He projects for 15th roughly this year. So this is how I do player props, right? Like I look at my projections. I try to bucket guys based on where their projections are. And then I look at the odds board and say, oh, well, this guy's bucketed with the, he shouldn't be bucketed with the 30 to 1 guys,

but you're giving me a 70 to 1 on them or 50 to 1. Well, Schwerber on the odds board is bucketed more with guys in the 50 to 1, 60 to 1 group, when based on projections, he should be in that 25 to 30 range, right? Here's the reason I really like this back. Working with Kevin Long, new Phillies hitting coach. He was the nationals hitting coach last season. If you're not aware of Kevin Long, he helped Curtis Granderson unlock back-to-back 40 home run

seasons, helped Daniel Murphy double his power output with the Mets, went absolutely ballistic in the playoffs, went from 13 to 25 home runs year over year, how Ryan Zimmerman, late career resurgence. This guy unlocks power. Look at all the data for Schwerber last season. Highest launch angle of his career increases fly ball rate by 10%. Ninth in barrels per batting ball event. That ranked in the top 10, obviously ranked in the top 10, but amongst guys like Aaron Judge, other superstar power hit hit hit rate of his career, and he chased pitches outside the zone less off than it ever before. So improvements across the board for Schwerver, modified his swing under Kevin Long. I think he's probably going to break that 40 home run mark,

whether he gets to the top, whether he plays enough to hit that mark, we'll see. But 50 to 1 is outrageous value on a guy who should be a top 15 home run performer. Kyle Swarber, Indiana Hoosier. That's right. You got that double that double Schrober connection, Chad, favorite college and, you know, your favorite baseball team. I cover the Indiana Hoosiers baseball team for the Indiana Daily Student back in the day. Look at that. Any future major leaguers on that team?

The only guy who got a look, I remember it very clearly. His name was Phil Doffin, D-A-U-P-H-I-N. And I believe he became a Philly's prospect, if I'm not mistaken. I'm Googling it right now. He was drafted by the Cubs. Okay, drafted by the Cubs in the 11th round. Never, never made it to the big leagues. Bounced around for a long time, long time in the minors. I'm sure he blames you for never making it. Well, a lot of people blame me for a lot of things that don't happen in their life. I'm used to it.

You guys can't do that, though. Colin, what's your long shot? It's only a kind, it's only a semi long shot compared to what Zerillo just gave out, which I do love a lot. It's, it's one of those stats that's, that's completely unpredictable and not at all telling of a player's skill level. And it's most RBI, and it's Freddie Freeman at 25 to 1. Freddie Freeman is consistently one of the, you know, one of the best hitters in all of baseball. He's also now going to be playing in the best offense in baseball. He didn't come from a bad offense.

Obviously, his team just won the World Series. but now he's going to be hitting behind Mookie Betts and Trey Turner every single day. And he actually had some bad RBI luck last year. I think he finished in the 80s. He topped out in the 110s a couple of years ago. But if you look at his RE 24, which is, you know, the best predictive stat of just consistent hit and run production, he's always in the top 10 there. And he's being priced down in the range of guys like Nolan Aronado and,

And John Carlos Stanton with his injury issues and Kyle Tucker who are less proven. And I think that there's just a lot of value and a guy who he knows going to be out there for 150 plus games, hitting in the heart of the order for the best offense in baseball. And at 25 to 1, I just don't really see why he's priced that low. I think he should be up there in the range of the of the Vladis at plus 800 of the Juan Soto's at plus 1,000. Even Pete Alonzo at 14 to 1. Freeman should be in that range. He's not getting any respect in that market.

I tried to tee you up for some Sayah Suzuki talk and you didn't take the bait. Oh, well, if we're talking award futures, I'll go all over Suzuki. To be whatever. It's player specific, man, whatever you want it to be. Saya Suzuki's not a long shot by any means. And this is actually a rare instance where I'm citing with one of the favorites. If you look at baseball prospectus as Pocoda projections for the season and Suzuki's 50th percentile outcome. So if everything just breaks in an average fashion for Suzuki, we're still looking at a

player who's going to be worth 3.7 war, hit 24 home runs. And his strikeout to walk numbers in Japan were insane, and they project to translate well in the United States. 71 walks against 87 strikeouts. He's going to play every day. He's already in his late 20s. And if you can find him in the plus 400 to plus 500 range, I think that health pending he should be the runaway favorite for NL rookie of the year where right now he's tracking in the second, third, fourth range. You see me with my Osaka Tigers hat on. I love, I love me some Japanese baseball. He tore it up for the Hiroshima carp over the last couple of years,

and he's going to bring it right back over here to America, and it's going to be very exciting, especially at Wrigley Field, where we're going to see those balls fly out of the park. The bleacher bums are going to love this guy. I'm all over him for NL. Rookie of the Year. It's a good defender, too. Doesn't hurt. I was just waiting for Sean to give me a long shot.

out again so I can just load up and I've already made those bets. I mean, as soon as he said Phillies player, I just started betting all the Phillies guys before you even said Kyle's name. So if we had any sort of bullpen, I'd be all over the Phillies futures. But it's just a negative Phillies fan I am. I just, they spent money on the bats. I love Nick. I love Schwerber, but I look at that team.

I just cannot bet their future. But if I had 40 to one, I would bet the Phillies, but at 25 to one, I'm just not doing it. I like their original future too a little bit, Simon. They're sitting around five to one. I think that's pretty solid. But they're the kind of team to me, like the Angels, pretty similar, who they're probably either going to be very competitive for the division or go under their win total. I disagree with Zerillo on the Phillies, which means that I know that I'm going to be

wrong on the Phillies, just because it's their defense that concerns me. That's one of the things that's hardest to quantify into a win total, but with Schwerver and Castellanos out there, I think they're going to be among the worst defensive teams in baseball. And also, I just don't know what they're going to have in pitching behind Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola. They didn't do a lot to improve their bullpen. You know, Corey Knable and all of his injury issues, he's not going to solve everything that was an issue with their with their bullpen last year. So I actually lean toward the under on that wind total. Going against the Rillow makes me nervous, but I just don't see it in Philly this year. I think their playoff

droughts going to extend. We're going to look at another 500-ish season. Listen, here's the beauty. We're going to get to find out who's right and who's wrong all season long. on our favorite new podcast. Payoff pitch. By the way, early next week, six new episodes covering every betting angle across all six major league baseball divisions. Go check out our episode description

where you'll find links to payoff pitch. Let's all go subscribe. There is no doubt everyone could use more Sean Zirillo and college. and Witch Church in their life a couple times a week throughout the summer. This is what the world needs right now. It's how we're going to find peace and happiness. If the Oscars can't provide it, the Action Network can. For producer extraordinaire, Matt Mitchell, for my co-host, Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download

from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, rate, review, subscribe, five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. We've all felt left out. And for people who moved to this country, that feeling lasts more than a moment. We can change that.

Learn how at belonging begins with us.org. Brought to you by the Ad Council. What grows in the forest, our imagination, and our family bonds. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you at Discover the Forest brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council.

Look through your children's eyes and you will discover the true magic of a forest. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the ad council. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some

retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human beings. potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick you here, unpack what went down and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits.

my basketball and college football journey or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human