The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NBA Conference Finals Betting Guide

Episode Date: May 18, 2022

The NBA playoffs are heating up, so Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter of Action Network welcome on two NBA experts to break down the semifinal round. The Boston Celtics take on the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Golden State Warriors tip off against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. These two matchups that are sure to delight fans and gamblers alike, so Action Network analyst Brandon Anderson and Jason Timpf of The Volume Podcast Network's Lakers Tonight podcast provide their analysis on both series and how to approach them from a betting perspective.  But first, we debut our newest segment: What Are The Odds? Listeners submitted their wildest coincidences and circumstances. We've selected one and invited on Action's predictive analytics team to break it down from a mathematical perspective. Today's maiden voyage takes us on a journey involving the Dallas Cowboys, Ric Flair, and his famous chop. #Herd What Are The Odds Segment - 4 min Western Conference Finals - 11 min Eastern Conference Finals - 35 minSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're starting conference finals in the NBA, folks. I got Simon Hunter, professional better, BFF, compadre companion, my co-hosts, here on the favorites. Simon, Sixers, we haven't talked about sort of the demise of your team. I want to bring in our guests in a second who I'll introduce, but we should talk about the fact that, you know, Doc Rivers is coming back and this team looked like they had no. passion, no fire, no fight. The heat were grabbing offense to rebounds, one guy in between two guys. What say you? What say you about the prospects for your local team?

I mean, it's the life of a sixish fan. It's been, um, AI was 2001, man. Like, that was a lifetime ago for me as a sixers fan. So am I upset? Yeah, but I literally said it to you. I hate James Harden, did not like his style play at all when he came to the six years. I was like, this guy is zero heart. Like in the playoffs, you need heart, you need a dog. That man has no dog in him. So nothing shocking. It sucks.

I keep losing money, betting on them, but it's all good. It's like, it's what I expect. So as a Sixers fan, I'm excited that we have Maxi, Joel and Bede,

hopefully his face comes back normal next year and he can heal up. And I'm happy, excited for the future, but if Harding gets a five-year deal from Darry, I know you or Ravel have that guy's phone number or address. I'm getting it off you,

and I'm going to that guy's house. So I can't have it. So right now I think all of us Sixers fans are just scared about what's going to happen this offseason with James Hardin. Look, there's a lot at stake, right? I do want to bring in our guests, Brandon Anderson, NBA analyst at Action Network, frequent guest and podcaster on our buckets podcast as well as frequent guest and podcaster for our NFL podcasts. Jason Timp, volume colleague, host of the Lakers Tonight podcast on the volume network. Before we get to previewing the finals, both the Mavs and the Warriors, Warriors favorites and the Celtics and the Heat, the Celtics, our favorites.

Before we get to Brandon and Jason, we created a game a couple weeks ago. Quick reminder, I was in Vegas. I was coming back on the train that takes you from the security gates to the terminal. A guy gets on the tram or the shuttle. And like his hand is bleeding all over the place. I give him a band-aid. We go our separate ways. And two hours later, I board my flight.

I take my seat. And this guy sits right next to me. What are the odds? I asked people, what are the odds? What are the odds that that would happen? I asked Sean Croner, I asked Nick Giffin, two of the mathematicians here at Action Network. Of course, they broke it down for me, took all the mystery out of it, gave me the exact number of what the odds would be. It was 450,000 to 1.

But it did prompt a potential to this segment. And so, Simon, a lot of people. And again, I said this in the last episode. I got to give credit to Michael and Jen Schiffman, friends of mine who were over when I was telling this story. And Jen looked at me. She goes, that's a segment. What are the odds? segment on your podcast. Of course, she knows I have a podcast. My wife who was sitting next to

it was like, you got a podcast? Anyways, asked people to submit. Michael Ryan wrote this. A few years ago, I went to the Dallas Cowboys playoff game against Seahawks. I attended a tailgate party and got to meet Nature Boy himself, legendary wrestler Rick Flair. At the party, I asked Rick Flair to perform his signature move on me that chop. Unfortunately, Rick declined to chop me, and that was that. A few months later, I'm in New York, enjoying a late lunch at a restaurant near the Brooklyn Bridge. I'm the only person sitting in the bar when in walks an older gentleman. He sits down once over from me and orders a beer and a glass of wine.

He turns towards me. It's Rick Flair. I introduced myself and explained the insane circumstances of running into each other again, just three months later and 1,400 miles away, knowing this would be my last shot, I again asked Rick Flair if he would chop me right here in the restaurant. He politely declined, which was totally reasonable. I offered to buy him a drink, but he declined that too

because he wanted to buy me a drink instead. So instead of a Rick Flair chop, I got a drink a new story. And I'll never forget the name of the restaurant because it was the Brooklyn Chop House. What are the ass? That's amazing. Woo, pal!

To be the man! You got to beat the man. And I'm saying, I'm the man. Woo! We don't just ask questions here at the Action Network. We provide the answers thanks to our award-winning, much beloved heartbeat of our business, predictive analytics team,

which include Sean Kerner and Nick Giffin. Get the fucking nerves to work, all right? What are they fucking doing all day? NASCAR, modeling, predictive analytics. We're trying to make up games here. They went into their lab on the request from this listener about what are the odds of seeing Rick Flair in two different places.

Nick, predictive analytics, genius. mathematician, give us the odds. Hi, everybody. Hi, Dr. Nick. All right. So Sean and I, we actually did pretty heavy research on this. And given that, you know, the Seahawks Cowboys playoff game was in January 2019, why would Rick Flair be in New York City in April of, you know, April of 2019,

WrestleMania. So our hero, Michael here, put himself in this situation in a new. York area restaurant, the chop house, the week of WrestleMania, we have to look at it in the way like, what are the odds that Rick Flair actually ends up there? And Sean and I went through a bunch of different things. We found out that New York, the metropolitan area, has a population around 19 and a half million, but not everybody's a drinker, not everybody goes out. So we kind of whittled it down and we found that there's about 6,000 restaurants in the New York metropolitan an area. So then we had to say, well, what's the probability? Rick Flair ended up there. And I think

Sean had a little interesting nugget on why Rick Flair would actually be more likely to end up at the chop house. Yeah. So I mean, obviously our hero in this story is obsessed with Rick Flair. So it's more likely he's going to end up at a place called the chop house. Rick Flair is obsessed with himself. So it's more likely he's going to at a place like chop house. So that tidbit in this story doesn't make it crazier. It just makes it more likely. So it allowed us to throw a little bit more cold water on these odds. But I'm saying it's more likely that Rickler go to a place called the chop house.

Exactly. You know, we also have to consider what are the chances Rick Flares in New York the week of WrestleMania, probably pretty high. We put that at around 90% chance. Then we also have to consider, well, the average American goes out about five times a week for a meal. But that's much higher in New York City. and it's probably even higher for Rick Flair while he's traveling during the week of

WrestleMania in New York City. So we put the probability of him going out for a given meal at around 75% chance. Like I said, about 6,000 restaurants he could choose from. So that's one in six thousand. And then Rick Farr is probably not going to McDonald's. He's probably not going to Sabaros. He's Rick Flair. He's, you know, world champion multiple times.

He's probably going to a nicer establishment. So we gave it like a 70. 25% chance that if he goes out, he's going out to an establishment similar to shop house. So then we also have to consider the time. And the time is another factor that actually kind of lowers the probability, makes a lot longer odds. The key factor here in our story was it was an empty place. And it was a late lunch. We can probably assume as a weekday, late lunch, not many Americans are going out at that time. If you take five meals per week for an average American and there's about 14 go outable meals, you know, two per day, let's say

ballpark, then that would be about 35% chance, but given it's a late lunch, it's probably much lower than that. But you also have to consider Rick Flair probably wants to avoid the crowds. So bump it up a little bit. So we gave about a 25% chance that Rick Flair would be going out at that time. So you multiply all those odds. 0.9.75, 0.25, 0.75, and 1 in 6,000. we come up with ballpark 1 in 50,000 odds that he would run into Rick Flair at that time.

And it makes sense. He's going to New York City. He has about 6,000 places to choose from. What are the chances he end up there at that time, probably about 1 in 50,000? And I'm saying since it's called the Chop House, it's even lower than that. We are back then to Joe Rick Flair and ooh that year. Tick against John Michaels, who just got topped and topped again. Oh!

Anyways, Brandon Anderson, analyst action network, Jason Tiff, host of later's tonight on the volume podcast network. We got a lot to discuss. We got to talk about the heat and the Celtics. Celtics favored. We got to talk about the Mavs and the Warriors, the Warriors favorite.

Most people will be hearing this after the Celtics Heat game for game one is tonight. Mavs, Warriors tomorrow night game one for them. Before we get to that, Brandon, I want to ask you this. and then, Jason, I want your take. The Sons have gone from a team that last year was in the finals to this year, had the best record in the NBA, to five games ago, looked like they were a Sherlock for at least the Western Conference finals.

And now you're wondering if you've got to blow up this whole team. Brandon, what is happening? What can fans expect? What do you think the sun should do? Boy, it was a mess. DeAndre Aiton plays 17 minutes in game seven. His contract is up. So now what happens with Aiden?

Does he resign? Does he get traded? Does he just sign elsewhere? We already knew that was a storyline. And that is a juicy way to send that one into the offseason. Chris Paul through two games is just like scoring anytime he wants to. And the poor guy turned 37 and celebrates his birthday by turning into a pumpkin. Chris Paul played so bad in game seven.

I think the Lakers were calling at halftime trying to see if he's available to join the teams like 37 year old wash star like the guy fits in perfectly so jason i think that's a future laker for over there but it was a mess i hate to say they looked uncoached they looked unprepared they were making uncharacteristic mistakes turnovers all game all series that's the one thing chris paul never does is turn the ball over and him and devon booker are just like throwing it to the other team it it it was so ugly and so messy that I almost can't wonder if there's something else behind the scenes. Is there something in the locker room?

Is there something happening with the suns? Like they were so far off their usual game. And the other wonder that I have now is, is this the new Utah Jazz? We've seen the jazz pile up regular season wins for years. And I famously took the Jazz at 14 to 1 to win the Western Conference this year, thinking, well, maybe they'll get the bounces this year. They didn't get the bounces.

They got bounced. But are the suns a new jazz where they kind of broke the regular season code open, but don't have that top level in the playoffs? So it was a rough way to go. Well, look, Brennan, you love the Lakers. I know from listening to your work. Jason, you genuinely do love the Lakers. You see the suns collapse like this.

And what is your look, both as a media basketball professional? analyst and is a Lakers Homer. Well, for starters, I do have to clarify, and I apologize for not doing this in my previous appearances on the show. I am not a Laker fan. I simply covered the Lakers for the last couple of years. Now, I did fall in love with that 2020 Laker team and everything about them. I thought I just loved as a competitor the way they went about their business every single day, but I found the product this year to be so deeply offensive that honestly, like, getting away from them and switching, like we completely rebranded to hoops tonight,

actually. And now we're doing a five night a week. Well, here in the playoffs, it's been every night, but we're covering the entire league. And I can't tell you as a basketball fan, how refreshing it's been to get into some real quality basketball. As far as Phoenix goes, you know what's super interesting to me is if you look at last year, they were dominant through the entire regular season, dominant through the first three rounds. Yeah, as Clippers took them to six, but then they beat the hell out of them in that sixth game, right? And then things started really well in the finals, but then Chris Paul fell apart. And when Chris Paul fell apart, they fell apart, right? So then we come to this year, exact same thing, incredibly dominant through

the entire regular season, pretty dominant in the first round, but you got to factor in that Devin Booker injury as it pertains to that series getting dragged out. And then through two games, Well, let's just zoom out a little bit. Through eight games, Chris Paul was averaging 23 points per game, extremely efficiently, attempting about 15 shots per game. And then over the course of the last five games of the series, he basically stopped shooting. He only attempted, I believe, just under eight field goal attempts per game over the course of that last five games of the series. So I first I pick it up on some weird body language stuff and I thought it was related to that incident in the crowd with some drunk fan trying to like give his mom a Mother's Day hug. or something. There was something clearly going on with Chris Paul mentally in those

couple of games, but then it extended through the end of the series. So my theory is he got hurt. I think he, I think we have reporting from Marcus Spears that it was a quad injury, a left quad injury. But the gist of it is that the Phoenix Suns, obviously there's a lot of facets to their offense, but the core full cron of their offense is high pick and roll with Chris Paul and D'Andre Aten. And he has to be able to come off that screen and either dictate attention or score. Is either got a score or be a threat to score. And too often towards end of that series, like he wasn't even looking to score. He would throw that swing pass across the court before even putting any real pressure on the defense. And as a result, Phoenix's offense completely

decombusted over the course of the end of that series. And so it's really this simple. And I know people think I'm crazy, but I think you have to have an elite top tier superstar, someone that can consistently compromise the defense, even when you're having a bad night. Like a bad Chris Paul night, really bad. A bad Janus night or a bad Steph night or a bad LeBron night. Those nights are still deeply impactful just in the attention they dictate from the defense, right? So if Chris Paul's not that guy and Devin Booker's more of a number two, then you are fundamentally flawed at the top stages of the NBA. So I think it's time to start looking at Aiton and Bridges packaged together for a star somewhere around the league. It needs to be the next focus here because you're just going to

keep running into Luca or running into Janus and losing because they are so much better in these specific environments. And to the jazz comp, it's a perfect example. When you build your team as a regular season engine, it's bound to fail. Dallas was all year kind of an underachiever in terms of like with respect to the rest of the NBA field. But they were prepping a playoff style of basketball that was proven to work. A lot of switching, attacking matchups, really good spacing of floor, five out concepts, all that stuff. So they rolled into the playoffs and they actually go up a lot. Their play style is conducive to this environment, whereas for Phoenix, it's the exact opposite. If anything, they trended down a little bit. And so I hope they learned their lesson. It's wild to

say that a team not even basically a year removed from the NBA finals should rebuild. But that's where I'm at. I'd keep Booker and I'd look to flip Bridges and Aiton for a big star at this point. All right. Well, that wreaks a desperation. So good luck to the Phoenix Sons. Talk about Luca. Mavs dominated in game seven. Luca had more points, had as many points in the first half as the sons did as a team.

And look, midway through the third, they had doubled up, doubled them up in scoring. That's when I went to bed. It was four minutes left. They were up by 45. Now we're looking at game one on Wednesday night.

let's start. I don't need predictions yet. I know Simon wants to get more specifics on that. But when did you, Brandon, start to think, all right, the Warriors may be the best in the West. I mean,

I started to think that it maybe like 10 games into the season, five games into the season, like way back at the start, the Warriors just came out of the gates, guns blazing, and were just, they looked like the Warriors. I think they were 18 and 2 out of the gates.

No Clay Thompson yet. But Steph was, was the MVP and was going to run away with it. Dremont Green, my beloved 33 to 1 defensive player of the year, looked like it was just found money early on. And then he got hurt. Steph got hurt. Steph started pushing for that record.

And somewhere along the way after that first 20 games, and those 20 games came against pretty easy competition. But everyone kind of got injured and we sort of forgot about the Warriors somehow because this team hasn't even been in the playoff proper the last two years. And they, toward the end of the season, got healthy. Clay Thompson had rusty start, but then started really getting going late. Jordan Poole has been just a revelation. Jordan Poole has been the ultimate X factor for them.

And X factors are good and bad. Sometimes he has been very bad in the playoffs. And especially his home road splits are huge. He's much better as a lot of young players are at home when he's comfortable there. So he is a big swing factor. boy, when they get going, when they've got Steph and Clay, and somehow they find Jordan Poole, who is a Steph clone. He's running around all the offball movement and the relocating after the shot.

Like, poor defenses have already had to chase step around for 35 meds doing that all game. Now they got Clay doing it. Now they got Jordan Poole doing it too. Draymond makes everything work. I mean, look, I've got the Warriors' Steph Curry shirt on. I've been a Warriors fanboy for this whole round over the years. These are not the old warriors. The floor is much lower.

But boy, when they hit that ceiling, it's pretty basketball. So looking at this matchup, I'll start with you, Jason. Any picture of this Golden State, Dallas game won Wednesday night. We got Golden State minus five. Or it's up to some books at minus five and a half, but Fandul, it's minus five right now. Over under 214.15.5. You got to play for this game right now? So I'm on Golden State for game one.

The, the, first of all, throughout this entire playoff round, we've kind of noticed that Golden State's been better early in series and it kind of faded late, which I think is directly a, uh, it's directly related to their lack of overall size. Like as the series dragged on, Denver size really wore on them. Uh, Memphis ditched John Moran and really had a, I don't think anybody realizes how close Memphis was to winning that series. Like, it was very, very. close. And it just, despite having a massive chasm in talent offensively between those two teams at

the end of that series. But they were just physically bullied by Memphis, a lot of the facets of the game, right? And so I think as this series progresses, Dallas's advantage will become better. I'm actually picking Dallas in the series. But I think game one, Luca kind of reminds me of LeBron, too. He's a very feel out type of player. Like game one, he's just going to be trying stuff. Like, let me see if I can get this shot off against, let me see what, works against Raymond when I get him on switches. Let me see what works against Wiggins if I have to attack him at the end of a clock. Let me, let me see how good I am at getting Steph isolated away from the group or Jordan Poole isolated away from the group. Like it's a total feel-out game. I don't even think

Dallas lost game one in both of their series. So from that standpoint, I would be on Golden State for game one. I just don't think it matters much for the long run of the series. Jason, you're about to get a big lesson in NBA gambling. Do not want to take the Mavericks in the series. That was adorable what they did to the Sons. Golden State, bro. They're talking about Golden State Warriors, all healthy, all playing at the top level. Huge mistake. I mean, this is, I would say a handful of pros I've talked to. Again, we're going to talk about the next series too with Miami. They said this is one of the easier bets they've ever made with Golden State to win this series. And they love it that people are drinking the Kool-A with the Mavericks who just beat the Sons

who tank every year. I mean, we can go back to Steve Nash, running with Stodomar. Every year, the Sons would do great and then lose. in the playoffs. So it's just, I just think people are buying too much into the Kool-Aid of this Mavericks team. I get it. They're up and coming, but Golden State, man, they're all healthy. It's like, even in that fourth quarter, if they're down 12 points, I mean, Brandon, Brandon can talk about, are you ever scared about Golden State? It's literally Steph Curry hits two-threes, Clay hits a three, all of a sudden, it's a two-point three-point game. It's like, this is why they're just one of the greatest dynasties we've ever seen. So that's really interesting hearing that you would actually

take the Mavericks in a series because I haven't heard anyone put real money on the Mavericks in this match. So again, I'm not the gambling guy. I'm the basketball guy. You guys know that. That's why. And I learned something every single time I come on the show or when I go on with Matt Moore. But like, to me, it's like I and I trust the pros. Like trust me, I get, I get that they have a lot of really good reason to feel the way that they feel. To me, I just look at it from a basketball perspective. Like Golden State, the biggest thing that scares me with them offensively is they through extended stretches where their offense doesn't function super well. They have stretches where they take similar shots that they took in 2015 to 2017 range, like prime warriors. They'll take

similar shots. The difference is Steph's not the same guy he was then. Clay's not the same guy he was then. And Draymond's not the same guy he was then, you know? So like they go through these really cold stretches. The weakness for them on offense is they do not generate a ton of rim pressure. And what was killing them in the Memphis series as it dragged on was they weren't getting any drivel penetration and getting into the lane that was getting them better shots. And then it really is this simple to me. There is not there is not a soul on that entire Golden State roster that has a hope of guarding Luca Donchish.

Phoenix had, Phoenix had guys that at least could make him work. He was trying to get, he was trying like hell to get away from McHale Bridges. DeAndreighton, with exception of a handful of times he left his feet, made him take really difficult fadeaways. Like there were guys because Phoenix has such great size and because Luca depends on his size to create a shot. He had a hard time in some specific settings. That's why his efficiency was so bad throughout the first several games of that series.

But I think, I think Luca, especially as this series progresses, is going to get any shot he wants every time down the floor. I have the utmost respect for Golden State for the record. This is not a warrior's hate take or anything. I would have picked the Warriors over Phoenix, by the way. I just look at it in terms of the matchups. I think Dallas's defense is highly, highly, highly underrated. Dorian Finney Smith and Reggie Bullock have been incredible on the defensive end of the floor this year.

They were literally the reason why Chris Paul and Devin Booker struggle so much as that series dragged on. I am a lot higher on Dallas than most people. But for me, just strictly from the basketball perspective, I think Dallas is going to get better shots. And as the series progresses, I would not be surprised if this is the kind of series where Golden States up two to one, you know, or even if they won both at their home games. But as the series progresses, that's when Lucas' brain becomes a factor. and that's when Dallas is, you know, Golden State's lack of size could become a factor. Luca did, or LeBron did say that his favorite NBA player, 25 and under, is Luca. He said it in his Q&A last night on Twitter.

They're very similar. I always say that Luca reminds me of 2018 LeBron without the athleticism. So he's basically like the best half-court surgeon that we have in the league right now. just without the defensive up and without the above the rim stuff. But like, he is, he is, he is the best in the league at specifically targeting weak defensive matchups. There are a lot of teams that struggle to target weaker defenders. Luca is relentless about that.

He's even so crazy, like, he's such a psychopath that he will target your best defender strictly to get him out of the play. So that he'll, like, I watched him target Janus just so that he wasn't in help. Like, he was like, oh, I'm throwing these swing passes. And Janus has taken these shots. the way. I'll just have him guard me. And then it'll work Janus into the lane to make the same swing pass, except for now it's a weaker defender closing out and they get a better shot. Like the dude, the dude is 2018 LeBron without the athleticism. He's that level of half court creator at this

point. It's funny. That's how we describe Matt Mitchell to Brandon. Um, Jason seems to be in love with Luca. And I think he's overestimating Luca's value and the Maverick's ability to compete in this series. Uh, uh, Do you agree with Jason or do you agree with me making a Warriors in Five Bet is a better number than Warriors to win the series? So I'm actually a lot closer to Jason on this one. And I don't like the Warriors in Five Bet. Luca Donchich has played four playoff series in his career. All four series, he's taken to six games or long.

longer. I think that this has a really good chance of going along. I'm not taking the Mavericks in the series, but part of that is because it's a terrible spot to take the Mavs in the series right now as a better because I love the Warriors early in the series. And I think the Mavs are going to fall down in the series, down a game, down 2-0, I think is even very probable and that the Mavs will be live after that, though. You have to like the Warriors in the series because they got home game one. I like the Warriors minus five at home for game one since 2015 playoffs. So this version of the Warriors, that's the first title year. The Warriors in game one are 20 and two, or sorry, 20 and two straight up in game one. And of course, a lot of those heavily favored in, but as a single digit

home favorite in game one, they're eight and two against the spread. So that's the spot here against Dallas. It's not just that they're good and at home. They're a great home team. Dallas is coming off of a game seven, not the hardest game they ever played in their life, but still a long series. Aroham Palmer talks about game seven winners are 32 and 49 straight up in the following game one. So that's a rough spot for them. The other thing, too, with the Warriors, their offense is just different. It's different than everything. And they get all these cuts and back cuts and passes and ball movement. It takes a while just to get used to it. And, you know, the Mavs just played the Sons and the Jazz who are like the most conventional

pick and roll. This is how you play NBA basketball type stuff. And the Warriors are very different than that. And I think it's going to take them out some time just so. I like the Warriors a lot in game one. Those trends are pretty similar for game two. I think they'll have a good chance to go up too well. But as the series goes on, I think there's going to be some value on the Mavs as a long shot. For a lot of the reasons, Jason said, Luca is going to get better as the series goes on.

He's going to find his numbers. I like Luca plus 210 at Fandul to lead the series in points, rebounds, and assists per game. I think he has a good chance of doing that, and he fills off the box score in a huge way. Last 25 games this season, after they traded Christop Porizingas, Donchich average 32 points, nine and a half boards, eight rebounds.

And he's pretty close to that in the playoffs. The rebounds actually have gone up a little. Assists for me are the close one there. But Luca is going to put the numbers up. He's going to do a lot of things. I think Dallas's defense is going to get much better as a series goes on and have time to kind of adjust to some of those gimmicky things that the warriors do and adjust to chasing those shooters around and all that.

The other thing, too, with the warriors, you think, okay, so they're up to O, maybe. They get home game seven if it gets there. How do you not just take the warriors on that spot? Well, the warriors of all teams, we know this about them in their DNA is built in. Oh, two, oh, two oh, done. We got this. We're in the finals. Let's party. Let's go out. Let's go celebrate. Like they love, nobody loves to just throw a game away and just completely no show than the Golden State Warriors. It's just part of who they are. That's that's the arrogance and confidence is built into their DNA. You can't take it away

because they wouldn't be Draymond and stuff anymore. They get the turnovers and just start throwing ball away. We saw the Mavs take advantage of that last series. I think Dallas is going to push back after the early Warriors push. And I think they can make this a series and be a real threat because suddenly the series goes long, now you got Luca late in the series

and you got maybe the best player on the court and that's always a danger. All right. So Warriors and Five. Who do you guys think? Jason, Jason and then Brandon, give me one name to win the Western Conference Finals MVP. Don't give me, don't give me analysis. I want to get to the Eastern Conference.

Western Conference Finals MVP, Jason, go. I'm obviously going to be on Luca. Luca is about plus 185. Brandon, go. I want a different Maverick. Give me 140 to 1. Spencer Dinwiddie off the bench conference finals MVP long shot. Wow. I love it. And that's exactly what the number is right now.

All right. Eastern Conference, Simon. Let me throw him real quick. Graham on Green. Throw a little love on Draymond Green. If he shuts down Luke though, that would be pretty insane. Draymond Green is about plus 950 right now. You know, I love that. You know, I love that value. You do love that.

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embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the eye heart. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so... Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes, I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years. from black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We got number one and number two seeds. What I want to ask, Brandon, Ime, Udoka, one has talked about what he has done since January with this team. What I'm curious is from your point of view,

what is different about this team that Brad Stevens couldn't get it to do? Same roster. What is Udoca doing that is, so much better. It's not quite the same roster. I think Derek White, who they picked up the trade deadline, has been a really big addition for them. Just getting a guy, a glue guy, I know that he's had some games in the playoffs. We're like, oh my gosh, can you make a shot, Derek White? But you got to look at all the other things he's doing when it's not shooting because that's that Celtics basketball. It's the passing and the glue guy offensive complimentary stuff, moving the ball a little bit better

with him out there. He's a good defender. Everyone on the Celtics is a good defender at this point. They only play good defenders. So I think one thing Doka did this year that really unlocked the defense is they took Robert Williams and they said, okay, you're not going to be guarding centers anymore. We're going to put you out kind of off the ball, have you be the help defender and we're put Al Horford in all the action because Al Horford's going to switch. He's going to, he's going to be a great defender. We know that from a decade of ball now. And that is kind of what unlocked the defense. Robert Williams was looking at. like a possible defensive player that you're candid until he got hurt late in the season.

Marcus Smart won the award. Really it was a team award. The Celtics, since January 29th, Celtics had number one defense in the NBA. They also had the number one offense in the NBA. They just started generating far better looks and just getting much better shots. Defense becomes offense because you're getting all those stops. And when the defense is that good, we saw against Milwaukee, some of the easiest, some of the only offense Boston could come up with was get a stop and then run out and get something in semi-transition before the defense can lock in.

That's going to be really important for both teams in a series with so much defense here. And of course, with Boston, you need the threes to fall. But since January 29, the Celtics are 34 and 9, including the playoffs now. Out of those nine losses, five of the nine losses have been by one bucket. So if those games go the other way, Austin could be three. 35 and 4 since the start of February. And we are two rounds in the playoffs at this point. I didn't know it feels like they just barely got by the box without Chris Middleton.

Wouldn't the bucks have just beaten them with Middleton? The Celtic won four games with Janus putting up like 34, 15 and 7. And they were almost going to win two more games. Two of those losses were by a buy it again. They could have won that series six to one. So I think we have to be careful with the narrative framing. on it. Boston is just really good. And Udoca, I think, has kind of set up the offense to succeed by unlocking what the defense is done. I agree with narratives. It's kind of like thinking the Mavs

and Luca can take the Warriors deep because of what they did against the sons. Simon, go ahead. And honestly, it's interesting to hear what you say because a couple of guys I talked to, they really love Miami in this matchup. They think Boston's kind of the darling of everyone. They just saw what they did in that series. Their fans are obviously, way bigger than Miami's fan base, that's for sure. But I look at Miami is kind of the more veteran team with Jimmy Butler, who's been slept on this whole playoff series. I think statistically, he might be number two, I believe, overall and plus minus

and what he brings to the floor every game. So when I look at this, I'm all in on Miami, and it's funny that they're plus, what, 145 right now? I don't win this division. I would love to hear your view, Jason. What if Miami loses this first game? I mean, most people are going to be coming on Boston here. Is that one of these where you think I should just wait bet in Miami

because they're probably going to lose game one? Or is this extended rest? Is this the time to pounce on Miami? Because what, they're coming off four or five days or rest compared to, what, two days for Boston here? Well, we also have extensive evidence that when Boston gets when, they tend to let their foot off the gas, particularly offensively. They start to lose their focus on the offensive end of the floor.

Brandon, you broke down so many of my talking points for Boston that I don't even really need to get into it. Like, hit the nail on the head on so much stuff. Austin has been my pick to win the championship since game two against Brooklyn. I think they have the best defensive team of this era, even better than the 2019 Raptors. I think they have the quintessential modern NBA defense, basically the ability to switch every single screen, the inability to have any defensive player that is easily targeted. And the way that that can stagnate really good motion offenses and turn you into an isolation team

and bait you into trying to attack their awesome defenders in one-on-one situations. And as much as their offense has been their biggest flaw. And the reason why Boston has turned around so well over the last couple years, it's email you duck at instilling toughness, which I think is an important detail there. And then also taking the bumps and bruises of letting Tatum and Brown run your offense for two years and letting them suck and letting them make all kinds of mistakes, but learn how to do it.

And so now they're both better at it. But they're still, none of them are that high level. floor general. So as a result, they have a tendency to get off the rails a little bit with their offense, bad spot selection, early shots in the clock. If you looked at this series, Boston won every single game in the half court, according to cleaning to glass. But literally Milwaukee stole three games in the things that surround that static half court environment. So transition opportunities won two of the games. And then they won a game on the offensive glass, which was game five. So like Boston has things that they can get loose with. So between the letdown of just beating Milwaukee,

the fatigue of just playing on Sunday in a really physical game, Miami being super prepared and ready to go. I think Miami's best chance to jump up on the series is in game one. So I would think that that would be the smartest bet. But I view this as a defensive slug fest between probably the two best defenses in this field, except for Boston has significantly more offensive talent in terms of guys that can dribble, shoot, and pass. And so I expect this to be a defensive slug fest. I would hammer the under in every single game. Both teams will go in extensive stretches where they can't score, but Boston will score more. And so from there, I think it's that simple. So that's why I'm on Boston. Is there any player on the heat in an open draft of the talent on both of these teams that you

would take over Jalen Brown or Jason Tatum? I would take Jimmy Butler over over Jalen Brown. Yeah, Tatum and then Butler and then probably a couple Celtics and then the rest of the Celtics. I think Boston's overall two-way talent is significantly better. Brandon, so you guys seem to be aligned on this series. Give me any value in betting finals matchups right now. Warriors Celtics plus 130, heat maves plus 600, heat warriors plus 280, Celtics, Mavs looks like plus 350. Any thoughts on matchups right now?

So the key thing that I'm looking for, and you're right, Jason and I think are looking pretty similarly at the Celtics. For me, I have Boston a tier above the other three teams remaining at this point. But, and listeners will have seen what happened in game one already by the time we hear this. It's a schedule loss spot in game one. It's such a rough spot for them coming off the seven game series. I want it. I want the loss. I want Miami to go up a game because I'm not playing the finals matchup right now. I want better odds on Boston. I'm looking for my spot.

Where can I? I'm a sniper out here. I'm just waiting for my Boston number. Where is the number that I can get? Right now it's decent value, but I think the number goes up. It has to go up if Boston goes down a game in the series. And Miami's good.

Miami matches up well. Miami could win any game of series, certainly any home game. So if Miami goes up 1-0, Miami could go up 2-0. And if they do, I'm going to bet Boston again to win the finals because I will still like the team better in that spot. It's tough to overcome a 2-0 deficit. But Boston just, I don't know that I trust Miami to score in this series.

We like to think of the heat as heat culture and this very big balance that they have. The heat on offense so far have been Jimmy Butler and please will anyone else make a shot. Butler has been awesome, awesome, these playoffs. Look, I'm a Bulls fan and a Timberwolves fan. I've had the Jimmy Butler experience. This is about as well as Butler has ever played. And this guy is putting up triple doubles in the finals a couple years ago. He has been awesome.

He's arguably been with Janus, a co-playoff MVP so far. But the Celtics just played Janus, just played Kevin Durant before that. And this, you don't beat an all-world incredible modern NBA defense with one man playing all of your offense. You just don't. That's not a winning formula. And I worry where, especially with Kyle Lowry hurt too, where will the heat come up with enough other answers. So to your question, I want Celtics warriors, but I want to wait or at least wait until this post. I want to wait for a better number on the Celtics.

because I'm looking for Celtics futures, but I want them to get down early. Simon, you asked about how do I bet the heat? I think if the heat lose game one, they're in a huge trouble in this series. You can't lose game one with a huge rest advantage and coming off game seven. If the Boston gets that one,

I think this could end up going short. I think you're hoping that you get a long series. You get the heat win early, so you've got to get the bet in early on Miami because they're probably going to win the first game. then I'm looking to come back in Boston later. Jason, it feels like Brandon has the Celtics and the Warriors in the finals.

Give me your two teams in the finals. And if you're not going to back up your whole Mavs, Luke is amazing take, then you have no courage. So I actually, this was actually, before I respond to the professional betters here, if I thought that Boston was going to beat Dallas,

is it smarter to bet them on a round by round basis or to pick the NBA finals exact result Boston over Dallas? I would say, given what we've just talked about, if you want Boston over Dallas, you absolutely cannot bet it right now because we both think that the home teams are going to win early in the series.

You've got to wait for the better price. But certainly, the more exact things, you put together, the better payout you're going to get if you're right. The more risk you're taking on, but I love the ROI. I love the long shot. So for me, if that's the thing you think is going to happen, look, we could get Miami up to O, Golden State up to O. And if you still think at that point, Boston over Dallas in the finals, you're going to get a pretty tasty number on that one. You got to wait for that number, though, I think. Yeah. So, but the gist of it is, is I view Dallas as the best

mismatch attacking team in the league versus Boston, the team that is best equipped to avoid any sort of mismatch. So, and I don't think Luca particularly would struggle, the two guys that I think would have disastrous series is against Boston or Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. And I think Dallas's offense overall would fall apart there. I'm very high on Boston, obviously, but I think Boston ends up beating Dallas in the finals. All right. There you have it. We got our experts. We got Jason Tim, Wakers Tonight, slash Hoops Night on the volume podcast network. We got Brandon Anderson, NBA analyst for the Action Network for my BFF, my companion, my compadre,

professional better Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell, our producer. I am Chad Nolan. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. Get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement

to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford show on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast,

wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days,

I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.