The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NBA Draft Betting

Episode Date: June 22, 2022

The Warriors have again been crowned as NBA Champions, so now gamblers can turn their attention to the NBA event of the summer: the NBA Draft! Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome on their colleagues Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson to discuss the ways they are approaching betting the event, with loads of intrigue -- and value -- remaining for the top 3 picks and beyond. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It must be 21 or older and present in select states only. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 533442 in Arizona. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Or visit in Connecticut, 1-870-stop in Louisiana. 1-877-Hope-N-N-Y or text, HOPE-NY 4-4-6-7-7-3-6-7-3-6. in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-7-889, 1-800-2-470470 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

We are getting close to the NBA draft, folks. It's mere hours away. This is Tuesday afternoon when we are recorded. The draft is Thursday night. NBA draft has become a massive betting event. Ever since Wojbombs started becoming a thing, and he was telling everybody what was going to happen before. It could actually happen on television. And since betting has become legal, people have loved to speculate, as they have with the NFL draft, on the NBA draft. And this week, Action Network's own Matt Moore is making news that is driving NBA betting markets.

So in a couple minutes, we will welcome in. Action Network analyst Matt Moore, as well as Action Network analyst Brandon Anderson, both of whom you can hear on the Buckets podcast, which is exploded during the NBA playoffs. There is a new Buckets podcast up previewing the NBA draft. Simon Hunter, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. What's your take on betting the NBA draft? That's fun. Like you just said, it's definitely grown.

But just like NFL, there's just so much noise in the last two, three days leading up to it. It's like, what's legit and what's BS? So, I mean, it's fun. But I don't know about you, Chad. I had a great weekend after our Golden State win. That covered a couple beers for your boy. Nice payday. So I was like relaxing.

All of a sudden I was like, holy shit. The NFL drafts next, I mean, NBA drafts next week. The NBA does not mess around. They're just like, nope, we're not going to let anyone else get any type of spotlight. We're going right into our NBA draft. Pretty wild. I mean, I can imagine these teams like Golden State. I know they have guys obviously prepping for this draft.

That must be an insane feeling to go from an NBA championship parade to doing a draft in the same week. Number one, yeah, NBA schedule is pretty tough. And Matt Moore can speak to that. You go from NBA finals to NBA draft to free agency. And like they really don't give anybody a break. And yes, Simon, I'm glad you bring that up. You and I both had the Warriors.

I had the Warriors in six very decidedly said that. I had Steph to lead the finals in points per game and threes per game. Cash that as well. You know what? This is a good time to bring in Matt and Brandon. You guys, remind me, who did you have in the finals? At the Boston Celtics. Brandon, what was your take?

I had Celtics and sex. Yeah. Sometimes, you know what happens is the guy. who just sort of watch the game and look at it from 30, 40,000 feet, we don't get confused. We don't. We just believe what we see. And anybody, anybody watching those games could see Steve Kerr is the best coach. Steph Curry is the best player.

And if you watch the Celtics all year, which I did, watched a lot of Celtics game, you knew their fatal flaw was that Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum, all they like to do was drive to the basket without a plan in mind. and then hope they can bully somebody or the athleticism will help them midair. We saw what happened. Too many turnover from Jason Tatum because he couldn't figure out what to do

when he had the ball driving to the basket. Matt Moore. Sorry, I didn't expect the Celtics to set records for turnovers. I did. I did. Fucking ball over. But it's fine.

It's fine. Congrats on your bets, boys. You want to what? It's fine because I had Andrew Wiggins at 80 to 1. to leave the series and rebounds. So I came out just fine. You can have your paltry warriors bets.

Well, listen, I'll give you a hard time about the Celtics. And look, this was a really interesting series for that. And it is worth having a discussion in a betting context because it very much was a public sharp divide on this. For the most part, a lot of people, a lot of the public looked at the warriors, saw the dynasty, they were betting on the same. Celtics. A lot of wise guys, they loved their models having the Celtics. And I just thought that was a fascinating narrative, Brandon, for how the market publicly was looking at something versus how

the professionals were looking at something. Yeah, I agree. And I was really excited. I get accused by my colleague Matt of being Mr. Public a lot of times. I tend to be on the public side of a lot of bets. And it's true. It's a fair accusation. I was really excited to be on the other side of this one to be on the Celtics. They were a team that we had been writing. I was on Celtics preseason. We both bet Matt and I both bet them during the season to come out of the East to get the title. And it just, it felt like the right read. It felt like a team that was looking really good. Chad, I'm not only going to own Celtics in six. The last time I was on the favorites was before the Western Conference finals. And you asked me, Brandon, Warriors in five over the maps. Simon,

And you said Warriors is one of the easiest bets that your guys had ever made. Chad, you asked me Warriors in five. And I said, I don't like it. And you told me I was fired. Well, my paychecks are still coming in. So I think that didn't happen yet. But you got me on Warriors in Five and Warriors in Six on back to back. I literally have a Warriors basketball over this shoulder and a Steph Curry book over that

shoulder. I'm wearing a Steph Curry shirt right now. And I bet against the Warriors. Chad, I am proud to work for a person who knows the Warriors, even better than I, a shooty hoops fan, knows them myself. It was great for his legacy, great for the team. I was glad to enjoy the win despite being wrong about Boston. Okay, I have a lot of stress this week because of how much draft intel I'm trying to sort through.

Can we not maybe throw up on top of it? Well, let's get to it. Let's do it. Because, Matt, to your credit, you did break some draft news this week. And you had a story on Action Network about Paolo Boncaro and the what's happening with his draft odds to set the scene you know the consensus number one basically since the um since the lottery uh positions were were announced jubari smith number one chet holmgren number two chet humgren from gonzaga jubari smith from auburn palo ben caro from duke

number three matt matt more explain what's happening right now So it started on Sunday. On Sunday, I started getting texts about, hey, hearing some stuff that Bancaro is in play for number one. Now, we have been told pretty much repeatedly, those of us that like follow to try and follow these circles in the league and all the noise, that the magic had not made up their mind. That was true. Two weeks ago, it was true on Saturday. The last time I checked was that I heard that the magic had not made up their mind on who the number one pick is going to be. On Sunday, I started hearing that Bankero might be a possibility at number one more so than he was before.

And then the money starts coming in. on Sunday afternoon Palo Bancaro was plus 1,600, 16 to 1 at most books to go number one. By Monday morning, he was plus 900 or shorter. By Monday afternoon, he was plus 400 or shorter. And last night, and as of this morning when we're recording this on Tuesday, he is less than plus 300, often plus 250 or shorter to go number one. It's across all of the books. I talked to bet MGM that took a 4% increase in handle.

I talked to win bet that tracked 37 different bets on Vancaro to go number one in a 24-hour period. Every book I've checked in with, Superbook opened early on this and on Monday, and they immediately shot the odds down. Fandul, you've seen the exact same odds movement. The books have all in synchrosity been moving Vancaro down and down to the point where now Chuck Holmgren has longer odds than Bancaro. The question that you have is, okay, is this, because there's still no indication that Bancaro is actually the choice from Orlando. There's some rumors that he's in play for it, but not the guy. My understanding is that Bancaro has not worked out for Orlando. Jabari Smith has worked out for Orlando.

We don't know about Chet Holmgren. Chet Holmgren's medicals are in question. The big takeaway here is that there's a lot of uncertainty between those three guys for the number one pick. Depending on what number you get them at, there's value on all three. right now. There's a consensus that Jabari's probably still in the lead, but Bancaro is absolutely in play, and Holmgren's odds have moved so much to where I have to think there's a little bit of value on Holmgren, because many consider him to be as valuable as the other two. This is a fascinating situation. I don't remember seeing this much movement across every book in 24 hours the week of

the draft. Simon, professional better. When you see this happening, what is your take on the moves? Well, there's a lot that goes into it. It's not just him to be the first pick overall. It's also people betting on him to be a top three pick. I mean, again, that's a crazy amount of movement for a 24-hour period. But I'll tell you what I talk to a guy who does a lot of our NBRA coverage and he was talking to a couple scouts.

Who has the upside here? I think Chet's going to be a great player in the NBA. I like his upside. But is he going to be ever a top 10, top 20 player in the league? No, I don't think so. It just doesn't work that way. I think it's been interesting in the movement, but honestly, it's expected.

It's just looking from far away, it's not as crazy because it's kind of expected where these guys seem like they don't know either. No one really knows what the hell his magic team is going to really do. So these pros know something. Like that amount of money to come in at that time, I talk to you all the time, Chad. When do I work from midnight to 6 a.m.? That's not me.

That's most professional groups. So they know something. There's something going on here. So I love that these guys were having these guys on today because it was so cool, reading Matt Moore's article because it's like that's real time line movement that's no BS. So Simon, I want to get your thoughts on this because one of the things that I thought is, okay, I think there's probably value on Bancaro, but this is what we kind of came to on the Bucket's podcast is like there's value, there was value on Bancaro at 16 to 1.

Like that number was wrong, that he was enough in play and it was probably value on him at 9 to 1 and 7 to 1. One of the things that I do kind of wonder about is if there's been any, what you think the likelihood of the pros coming in, because I, My understanding is that a lot of this was sharp movement. It wasn't public money. This was sharp groups that these books were taking money from predictably, right? Why would the public all of a sudden jump on one side?

I think they tailed it later. And that's why we moved from like plus 400 plus 700 down to plus 300. But is there a chance that the books also were looking to steam bank caro because they thought there was a good value there with the possibility of coming back on Jabari Smith, now that his number has dropped from minus 300 down to a minus 140? 100%. That's exactly what they did. Like you just nailed it perfectly. So they don't care. They don't care if he goes number one now. They already got the value. I'm right there with you. I think it's the hardest part about, especially about doing these kind of shows where it's like, yeah, I'm with them. I would bet that steam. I think that's a good number still. But man, that's tough when you're telling someone to take a number of what is he plus 250 right now compared to when he was, you know, just even three hours ago when I woke up. He was plus 400 plus 500, some book. So it's again, it's tough position to tell people to bet that. number. You just said it. These guys have already hit their position and now they're just going to hedge it because it's again, what is a minus 120 now for him to be the first book overall?

Jabari is minus 150. Palo is plus 200 to be number one. It just moved from my, it just moved from minus 140 to minus 150 while we were recording. So that's what's going to be so crazy these next couple days. It's just like money's going to be keep coming in on these rumors. It is interesting to me that the draft has become, and I said this off the top, has become such a big betting event entirely based on speculation. Simon, you're connected, you know, you are a professional better who pulls from a lot of sources and you work with a lot of sources, work with a lot of other betters who have different coverage areas, right? So how do your guys know in the same way, Matt, how do you know when you're getting legit information from people on

NBA teams and scouts and when you're getting smoke screens that, you know, you got to sort of separate what you are hearing from what's real. Trial and error. I mean, there's a lot of that. But I would say after a couple of years, honestly, it's not like you need a huge group of guys. You just need the right guys. So I would say when NBA, there's certain people that I talk to when they speak, I listen.

And then when you see things start and fall into place and they said it a couple weeks ago, That's when, again, after years of doing that, you're just like, okay, this is, I don't need to listen or read all these other guys. I can literally talk to this one guy and get pretty good information because the NBA is more unique. I think, again, the NFL is the NFL Combine. That's where a lot of good information comes down to draft. The NBA has the Vegas League.

They have all these parties where they get together, especially the NBA final parties. So apparently there's just so much information that's trafficked it, like in these last couple weeks where that's different, the NFL. The NFL has a long break until we have our draft. So that's why it's really cool watching this in live time because, again, we can just say it's all smoke. I don't think it is. I think someone knows something clearly that this kid has risen up their draft board because the magic have kept it so quiet. And it's, again, it's any issues here where Matt Moore is going to say because it's a lot of information being thrown around right now.

I don't know how he's dealing with it because there's got to be a lot of BS inside there. The magic themselves are putting out there just throw people off the scent. It's nerve-wracking. It's annoying a lot of the time. The two things that I've kind of tried to rely on is try and make sure that you hear it from two people that you don't think operate in the same circles. That you feel like, okay, I don't think this guy heard something from the same person that this other guy heard from. And then the other thing that I try and focus in on is repeated information. So last year we hit Scotty Barnes going to Toronto.

That was a good hit for the action network crew. I heard Barnes killed the workout and interview in Toronto days after the lottery. And then Toronto was mentioned again and then again and then again. And it was in the midst of all this like it could be this. It could be Toronto could go here. Toronto's look at the trade the pick. But the one piece of information that kept coming through was they really like Scouty Barnes. And you try and hit those patterns, I think, especially in the betting space, that's where I try and focus on a lot is, can I find consistent information across sources that. I can piece together and go, there seems to be a consistent message here.

But like you talk about smokescreen. Yesterday, the big news was like, the Kings basically came out and held a press conference waving little Kegan Murray flags. Like Gavoni from ESPN, one of the most respected, probably the most respected draft expert in the world, formerly of Draft Express, writes on ESPN that the Vecron Diva is taking a like into Kegan Murray and that Mike Brown has warmed up. to Keegan Murray. And I hear from people that Keegan Murray is going up spaces. But then here's the consistent thing, though, is that what we've heard all along is the kings want to trade this pick.

The kings want a win now guy. And so that's one where I'm like, do I think the kings are taking Keegan Murray? No, I think the kings are probably trading it to somebody who does want Keegan Murray because I've heard the spurs and the Pacers are both very interested and want to trade up. And so they're trying to drive up that price and trying to sort through these things. is really difficult because everyone is slinging something right now and you're just trying to duck and not get hit with a piece of the feces. This baseball season turned K's into cash and big hits into big wins with Fanduel Sportsbook. Right now, new customers can step up to the plate with a no sweat first bet up to $1,000.

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Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I've got other topics I want to hit because I do want to hit some of the trade rumors because that has impact on the draft. And I do want to hit some futures market stuff for NBA title because there's been a lot of conversation about that in the last couple of days. But as we are thinking about Jabari Smith,

Paolo Boncaro, Chet Holmgren, what are the bets down the board, Brandon, you first, that you're thinking about that might have more value since the top of the board is what it's going to get all the attention. Yeah. So I, in this, you know, is regarding the, the intel and how do we sort through it all? On an NBA draft, I like to do kind of what you and Simon do on the favorites. I like to bet on the unpredictability, the gross factor. Like whenever something looks locked in and the number goes away up and it's like, oh,

here we go, Apollo to number three. It's been at minus 500, minus 1,000 for much of the process. Jaden Ivy, the sure thing at number four. nothing is a sure thing. Never anything is a sure thing. You can't be sure at number three and four when we don't know who's going one and two. It logically doesn't make sense.

So I end up getting a lot of things wrong because I'm willing to play a lot of these longer plus numbers. So one of that Matt just talked about, Matt said a lot of things about Keegan Murray. I agree with all of them. Kegan Murray is a really good player. He's a known commodity. I'm taking the over on Kegan Murray at five and a half.

I'm getting that plus number, something close to two to one now because there's so much talk about him going in the top five. But here's what I think I know about the top five. There's those three big guys. They're definitely going the top five. There's Jaden Ivy. We think that he's almost certainly going the top five. That's four. There's only five picks in the top five. I'm pretty good at math. That five out of five is it. That only leaves one spot for Kegan Murray. I think Kegan's a good player. He's like a Tobias Harris, a T.J. Warren type, but he's older. He would be the second oldest top five draft pick in the last nine NBA drafts. We don't draft older college players.

You know, Sam, you talked about the American thing. That to me is a red flag. An old player, a junior, basically by age, almost a senior. That would be really rare here. So you look for, okay, well, if it doesn't happen, what's the reason? Benedict Matherin could go there, Dyson Daniels, Shaden Sharp, younger upside guys. That's what we see in NBA drafts. I'm willing to bet on uncertainty. Maybe it's a smokescreen, maybe it's a Kegan Murray thing. Maybe it's a team fell in love with one of those young guys.

But when there's a very narrow path, it's got to be this way. Kegan Murray has to fit in this one slot to hit the under. I know that's what we all think's going to happen. I'll play the other side because I'm getting better odds there. I like that one. One other, my favorite pick. on the board right now is Okshay Akbaji over 13 and a half. Akbaji is another good known commodity.

He played at Kansas. He won the national championship with them. He is 22 years old. He's a knockdown shooter. Every NBA team wants a guy like Abaji who can shoot, who can come in and play right away. Easy case, done and done, slot him into your lineup. Again, the NBA draft at the top is about youth and about upside.

There are a lot of wings in this draft. This is a really interesting wing draft. here are guys on the wing like Agbaji that I know we're going to go ahead of him. As far as we know, Benedict Mathuron, Johnny Davis, Dyson Daniels, Shaden Sharp, A.J. Griffin. Those are probably top 10 picks. Those are guys going to go ahead of Akbaji. I like Malachi Braini from Ohio State a lot. Usman Jang, the international guy, is a guy getting a ton of buzz lately. I am betting on those guys by fading Akbaji because, again, there's only 13 picks in the top 13. And there's going to be some big guys,

and some other players in there. I think the number is important there, but I like the over on Akshagbaji. He's a good player. We're not betting on, will the player be good or not? We're betting on the value and where will the intel kind of force things.

And I think it's important on these bets. Look at the number. If you think a guy has to go in the top five or the top 13, count the players out. There's only so many slots for guys to fit in. And know, too, that books want you to bet, books know we want to bet the unders.

That's more fun. We want to bet the guy to go high in the draft. So I usually try to trend toward the over if I can because of that reason. I think Gakbaji is an interesting case study. Last year, I.O. Dissumu had a great year for the Illini, all-American. Consensus top point guard in college basketball. Team went in with a number one seed, didn't perform in the tournament. Iyo drops to the second round, ends up being second team all rookie for the Bulls, had an incredible year, was a little bit older, right?

The ceiling might not have been as high as some of the players taken ahead of him in the first round. That's where guys start to outsmart themselves, right? And like, look at what Akbaji did throughout the tournament, winning a national title. he played well in the tournament. Like sometimes you've got to get a player who just knows how to play the game and is ready to contribute. And I feel like that you're probably right, Brandon. I also feel like this is where people get a little too excited about potential.

Yeah, absolutely. Because you're looking at, you know, okay, well, Malachi Branum, he's only 19. What will he be three years from now when he is the age Agbaji already is? Well, that's fine. But I also have to play the player the next three years. and I bodje can play for me right now. You know, he's the exact sort of guy that Desmond Bain comes to mind, a guy that a lot of people in the NBA draft loved a few years ago,

and he slipped, and then what's he doing now? He's playing huge minutes in the playoffs for the Grizzlies as like a key part of their franchise, and then we do a year or two later. How did Desmond Bain fall? He hits shots. He plays defense. How did it happen?

Well, this is how it happens. You're taking the upside. And in the NBA is interesting. that number 14 is really important. You're in the lottery because you missed the playoffs. When you slip past the top 14, now you are, unless the pick was traded, now you're being added to a team

that doesn't probably need a franchise superstar. They need an Akshach Bhaji, a guy to just come in and play a role. And so that's where suddenly you're in a winning situation. You're not the guy. You're the fourth guy. You're taking open shots, not creating your shots. So it's a much better team con.

context too. So yeah, I'll take the over on Akshayk Baji. Then I'll take the under on, on didn't we, what do we do with this guy? Like, how do we pass on him? Like, I'll take both sides of that equation because it's going to play into both angles, I think. Yeah, that's why I love the draft though. It's like you never know the real upside of these players. I mean, one of my favorite stories ever always be. This kid came out of college. She was his incredible three-point shooter. He was skinny as hell. He had really bad ankles. And he just won his fourth NBA title last week. It's like you never know. Like Steph Curry, I remember they talked about it.

If he would have played just five years early in the NBA, they didn't have the science for what they figured out with his. They literally fixed the way he would land after he would shoot the ball. Like that was sparesly his big weakness is that like he kept rolling ankles. And it's like incredible thing. Like these teams don't know. Like it's it is a craft shoot. Like that's what I always love these NBA drafts.

I'm a Sixers fan. We spent years trusting the process tanking to win these drafts. And what did we end up with really? We ended up with Embed. I know we got Maxy here down the road, but it's like these teams, we strike out constantly. Like Ben Simmons,

we struck out. Fultz, we struck out. It's like, I love the draft because it's like, no one cares right now. It's just the high of highs. Like we have such high,

happy hopes for these players right now. But we know the deal. It's the NBA. There's what, 20 really dominant players and you're lucky. So lucky if you can just find one of them. Steph Curry, hard to argue right now that he isn't a top 10 all

time NBA player. That is that is the only conversation that anyone has had since the Warriors won the finals. I've been out with friends. It's the constant conversation. I've seen it on Twitter. It's the constant conversation. Steph Curry, top 10 player all time. You can't argue with it. It's like it's transformational. Matt Moore is rolling his eyes. You're with me. I'm with you. Look, I don't necessarily know why we didn't have this conversation earlier. I've never been a step guy. I needed one more though. Does he?

He had three titles and is the greatest shooter of all time in which the entire point of the sport is to put the little round thing in the hole with the net. Like, he's literally the best at the number one most important thing ever. He's verified and certified with three titles already. Now he gets four. Like to me, he's already in that conversation. Like he's more impactful than a lot.

This has been the thing. You know, I judge everything on what's your impact on winning? Do you impact the game in a way that makes your team win? There's no question. Steph Curry is the most impactful offensive player since Michael Jordan. And his offense is so impactful. It makes up for the defensive side of the things where he's not even bad. He's just not very good.

So to me, I absolutely think that Steph Curry is a top 10 player of all time. I think you can put a real argument for him over Magic as good. It is as amazing as magic was. I think when you get into these conversations, you're parsing greatness. And so it's okay to just say, like, these are all incredible players. You're not insulting anyone.

But Steph Curry is the greatest player of all time. He's a consummate winner. He's willing to do with so many guys that could have been great, would not, which is work off ball and move. If you just move, if Russell Westbrook was willing to be, earlier before all the knee injuries,

was just willing to be like, yeah, no, I'll just cut. I'll cut to the rim. and catch lobs and do all these things. How different is it rather than taking defense off and wanting to dribble there out of the ball? Curry's work ethic, his leadership, he's such a magnetic personality for that team.

I think you cannot separate him from Draymond. Draymond's impact on him is huge, but Steph's the greatest shooter of all time and a four-time champion. He's top 10, no doubt. I do think you hit on something really interesting, which is to me, if you're going to be a top 10 player, there has to be an element in your game that revolutionized the game, right?

And you can say that about Michael Jordan. You can say it about Magic. You can say it about Larry Bird. You can say it about Wilt. You can say it about Kareem. You can say it about LeBron. And you can say it about Steph. Like all of them had an element of their game that was entirely revolutionary and had an

impact on the way the game is played. The way the game is played on the court. How teams draft, how teams defend. Steph did that 100%. Also, I'm getting tired of the Steph bashing on defense. The guy played really well defensively in the finals. He is bigger. He's more physical. He stayed in front of his player. Like the guy he's defending on offense. He shuffled his feet. He was there. He was in the lane taking physical poundings as much as Andrew Wiggins, who was extraordinary.

Enough said. I don't need a response. Here's my question. right now two trades being discussed. One, everyone's saying it's a fate of company, Rudy Gobert, to the Chicago Bulls. What I'm trying to unpack is, what's the other side of that trade? If the Bulls give up Patrick Williams, to me, that is insanity because he is built for today's NBA. The ceiling on him is huge. He's 21 years old, has so many physical gifts.

And even in limited time, he could have a huge impact. see that when he got back. And if you have Patrick Williams, Lonzo Ball, DeMar, Zach Levine as a foursome, that is incredibly powerful. That is long, it's defensive, it can run really fast. Like they are a powerful group. I don't want to give up Patrick Williams for Rudy Gobert. So to me, the trade is Vuccivich, Kobe, the 18th overall pick for Rudy Gobert, Matt Moore. Am I right or am I wrong? I think you're wrong. I think here's what I know on Gobert.

The market for him was really strong when it opened about a month ago. And Atlanta and Toronto were two of the teams that were really interested. They backed off a little bit. That doesn't mean they can't come back to the table, but they backed off a little bit. And so there's been a lot of momentum that, like, it's going to be Chicago. I've asked people that are familiar with Arturis Karnasovas. I know a little bit of him from him working in Denver. And the question I asked people was,

is Gobert or Carnasovas type of guy and they were all emphatically yes that he values length, defensive IQ and the ability to really be a foundational piece and Gobert checks all those boxes. This checks out logically that the interest is real here.

There's been a growing sense around the league that the most likely destination is that he's probably going to end up with Chicago and there has been kind of this idea. I don't think Danny Age is going to back off the Patrick Williams requirement. I don't, I personally, don't think that's going to happen. I think that it's going to be a requirement that Patrick

Williams is included in the trade. Age wants good talent, picks, and prospects. Chicago is one of the only teams that has that combination available, where they can provide Voochovich as a win now player, Patrick Williams as a prospect, and some lower value draft picks. The fact they don't have high draft picks is part of this equation. That's why you have to compensate with something like Williams. Do I agree with you that they shouldn't trade Patrick Williams. I do. I agree with you on that. But there has been kind of the idea that eventually Chicago is likely to go ahead and commit to that deal. I will tell you that Minnesota has in recent days over the last couple weeks really gotten involved with the idea of Gobert and has banned about a number of different options that might

help in terms of, you know, if Minnesota sets a lower bar that helps Chicago being like, hey, hey, Minnesota is not offering, you know, whoever. We're not offering, Patrick Williams in this deal, but it can work the other way in terms of being like, look, if you're not going to give you Patrick Williams, I'm just calling up Minnesota and taking that deal. So to me, if I had to put odds on it, I would put the bulls at a small minus number to get Gobert. The only reason is not larger is Danny Ains drives a really hard bargain and that's hard for anybody to deal with. But as of right now, with what we're talking about right now, I expect Rudy Gobert to be a Chicago bull by the time that the season starts.

and I do expect Patrick Williams to be part of that deal with the caveat that if he can get anged to back off, I haven't seen our tourists in this situation. Maybe it doesn't happen. But right now, I think Patrick Williams winds up being part of that deal. I hate that trade. I hate it. To me, it's like P. Will should be an untradable asset at this point. And then you find out, is he Kyle Kuzma, when he was untradable from the Lakers, like four,

five years ago, or is he Tyrese maxi when he was untradable from the Sixers in the last couple years? I think that the ceiling is Tyrese Maxi, not Kyle Kuzma. I would hate to see Patrick Williams leave the Bulls. Brandon, do you have an opinion on this? I do. So I am famously a Chicago Bulls fan that grew up in North Dakota as a Minnesota sports fan. So I think I also famously had a Utah Jazz to win the West ticket that is still, by the way, only 10 wins away from cashing. Rudy Gobert coming to only one of two teams, both of whom are my teams. I feel like his penance for how terrible that bet was that Rudy's going to end up on either one of them.

But Rudy is a great player. Like, Rudy is a elite, elite defensive player. I'm with Matt on the price. I think when you look at the price of what's Gobert going to take, look, Vooch, Kobe, and a draft pick is the sort of trade that we make as fans to say, well, here's some stuff. Like, which is pretty good, right? He was an all-star. And Kobe White, he was a high pick, even though we don't really want him anymore, but

he was pretty good. And number 18, that's a draft pick. That could be anyone. That could be, that could be honest someday. Just take the right guy. He'll be great. Have our stuff. Give us the guy that we want.

That is kind of how that offer reads to me. The Bulls are not rich in assets. The Bulls asset is Patrick William. that's it. If you are trading with Chicago, a great player like Rudy Gober is in the regular season, you have to get a big asset. And I think Patrick Williams is the asset to get. I'll say that, Chad. I'm in Chicago land. The Bulls were a lot of fun to watch this year until they all got hurt. If you get Rudy and then you get Alex Caruso and Lanzo ball healthy on the perimeter, that's going to be a really, really good defense. Rudy is valuable offensively,

the way he opens up as a rim runner, with Damar, with Levine, hopefully back. I think that that's an assumption at this point. That team is going to win a lot of games next year. I think the reason that you make the trade, the reason you give up Pat, even though I agree with all what you're saying, Chad, he's valuable, he's where the modern game is going.

This is a timeline thing. You're in on Demar, you're in on Vouch. This is the team you've committed to. Rudy Gober makes this version of the team way better right now. This is the team you committed to. then I think you just go for it. All right. Well, that's fair.

We've only got a couple minutes left. Two things that we need to get to. One, in 30 seconds, tell me, where is Kyrie Irving playing next year? Each of you gets to answer. And then we need to spend about two minutes on NBA futures. Brandon, 30 seconds. Clock starts now. Where is Kyrie playing next year?

I'm taking Kyrie to the Knicks. Just because I don't know, I don't understand, I don't understand Kyrie, I don't understand the Knicks, I don't understand how it's all going to work. So sure, of course, Kyrie to the Knicks, he's leaving Brooklyn, that seems to be done. Maybe it's L.A. I just feel like Kyrie Blon's as a Nick. He can just dazzle Madison Square Garden crowds every night en route to 28 wins and a playoff non-exit.

I think it's a perfect match. Kyrie to New York. Matt Moore. You've got 30 seconds. The clock is going. Tell me now. Where is Kyrie next year? Venus, where he's a fry cook.

I'll say the Los Angeles Lakers. That's been rumored for months. There's been a lot of smoke around Kyrie making up with LeBron over his departure in 2017. There's been a lot of conversations about that. The Lakers obviously need an injection of talent and reconfigured to get back on top. LeBron will approve that move. That, to me, is the simplest answer here that he's going to wind up as a Los Angeles Laker. Very good.

Okay. All right. Nixon Lakers, which seems to be the consensus, how those trades we put them into our mythical trade machine actually work out. Nobody really knows. It's a lot of ifs to get there. Let's talk about NBA futures for a second. A lot of conversations about how the market is moving right now.

And Celtics Warriors at the top, Simon, if you've made any NBA futures bets, have you heard about NBA futures that where the value is right now? Warriors 5 to 1, Celtics, 6 and a half to 1, bucks, clippers, nets, 7 to 1. Wouldn't touch anything. I'll just wait until January, February, and bet the Warriors again. I mean, we all know this is going to play out.

It's just the way it is. I'm just a big fan of what they are right now, like a full season of clay, Dre, Steph. Matt Moore, NBA futures. Bet three teams, right? And then the market opens because that's how I do things. I bet Warriors last year on June 26, the plus 1,200. So I bet clippers plus 850, Sixers plus 1,600, and the bucks at plus 800.

I'll look for a warrior spot, but like Simon, I think there's a shorter, I think there's a longer spot somewhere after free agency when everyone gets enamored with moves or whatever else. I take the three teams, I think that will probably shorten, and I'm waiting for Golden State to get a longer number. Step will have an injury, Draymond Allen injury, and everyone will freak out, and then we'll bet them then and live during the season and a longer number there. you're moving lines because the bucks are a plus 700. I was wrong. The clippers are a plus 750 looking at Fanduo.

Six are still a plus 1,600. Brandon, one minute. Give me your teams that you've bet NBA futures on. I'm just doing one. I like the bucks. I think if you take the playoffs, we just watched and everything we knew going in and played out a hundred times,

I think the Milwaukee Bucks win the championship the most times out of there. Chris Middleton stays healthy and they get past Boston and seven. I know Matt thinks they get past Boston 7 if they get there. And I think the Bucks are a tough matchup for the Warriors specifically. They don't have a Yannis answer. Nobody has a Yonis answer.

I think the bucks are still the best team. Yannis is the best player. He's the guy that is unstoppable in the playoffs. That was even the case this year. They just ran out of other options. So I like Milwaukee. I'm not going to go hard on it. What I learned with futures this year especially is you can get a better price later.

You can wait because the season is eternal. And these numbers are going to go up and down. Someone goes 18 and 2. Someone rips off a winning streak. Someone gets injured. There are going to be chances to bet the number later. It doesn't matter that you're right now. It matters that you get the best value.

So I like the bucks, but I think that there will be a chance to get them at value later in the year, too. All right, guys, we've covered it all. NBA futures trade possibilities, betting the NBA draft for Matt Moore, for Brandon Anderson, for my BFF Simon Hunter for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Norman.

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