The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NBA Finals Betting Update

Episode Date: June 8, 2022

The NBA Finals heads to a pivotal Game 3! Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome on colleague Matt Moore along with Jason Timpf, host of the Hoops Tonight podcast on The Volume podcast network, to update them on how the series has played out thus far. What should bettors be wary of heading into Game 3? Are there any numbers to grab now prior to Wednesday night? And who has become the best bet for Finals MVP after two games? #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, aka Mr. Hoops, because I'm so good at prognostication on the NBA and the playoffs. I've got a couple of guys who will back me up on it. Action Network analyst. Matt Moore is going to join us in a minute. My volume podcast colleague Jason Timp is going to come back on. He's been on before during the playoffs. We're going to recap what's been happening in the Warrior Celtic series. We're going to predict what is going to happen in the Warriors Celtic series. Before Matt and Jason join us. Hello, Simon, Simon Hunter, professional better, my BFF, my companion, my compadre.

How you doing, buddy? It's nice to see these NBA players are just like us. Have you seen on Twitter lately how bored Kevin Durant and LeBron James are? I love it. I love it. These guys are sitting around just like us and are like, I just want to talk sports. I just want to chat up and disagree with people. I love that football, we don't get that.

Like, what quarterback is on Twitter being like, nah, I'm the best player ever. This is why. this is why you're an idiot this is why you're a fool we don't get that NBA these guys are so loose I love it they have you know they're sitting on their couch Kevin Durant's probably smoking a blunt and he's just firing away on people and it's just been really fun this off season it's so fun that you say that I was thinking look I listen to a lot of NBA radio which I think is great and in the mornings I listen to Frank Isola and Brian Scalabrini when I'm taking my kid to school if I'm running an errand it's always on and then in the afternoon, when I'm picking my kid up,

it's usually Justin, Termini, and Eddie Johnson. I love listening to NBA radio because this league, man, it is just so full of the drama. And I do think that NBA players, Durant, LeBron, I feel like they are bigger fans of their sport than NFL players are of their sport. And I think that's why you get like, A, they're more prone to drama, I think, in the NBA generally.

I think a lot of the players are more outspoken. And I think they're sitting around watching these games at night and like NFL players, look, NFL players outside of the playoffs, they're playing every Sunday. And so when the games are happening, they're playing, right? And so like there's a Monday night game, a Thursday night game. But NBA players, they're watching every game. I love, love the drama this league brings with these players. You're 100% right. Yeah, like I just meant like if Tom Bray in the middle of the Super Bowl is tweeting, man, someone should have me on their podcast right now.

We'd all be like, holy shit, this is crazy. Like LeBron James just funny as hell being like, I got a lot to say. But no, it's like we're about to dive into these guys. The playoffs have been good, honestly, through two games. People have been hating on the playoffs this year. Really competitive basketball these last two games. It's fun to hear where these guys think this year is going to go because, Chad, we know what we like. It's going to be seen.

Have you updated your view on this series? or are you still holding tight with your Warriors prediction? Oh, my God, I feel great. I got to remind people, Simon is invested to the tune of mid-five figures north of 50K on the Warriors. He bet them on sort of the series price. I have bet the Warriors for significantly less to win in sixth. I bet the war at like plus 450 or something. I bet the Warriors to win in seven at plus three something.

I bet Steph Curry to lead the series in scoring average and three point average per game at plus 430. I have seen nothing even in the first game that made me feel like I should walk away from the Warriors at this point. We'll go to Matt Moore first, who has talked about the Celtics, who was like the Celtics, who believes in a model that likes the Celtics. I think he's wrong. But, you know, he can try to convince us and see if anything has changed his mind in the last, you know, 7, 92, 96 hours. I have no idea what you guys were saying here to fill this. Like I saw Simon went back in on Steph Curry for finals MVP the other night. I was like, what are you guys watching?

Look, the consensus amongst like the hoop heads is very much that like the Celtics are getting what they want, that they have a lot of strategic advantages. I think it's a little too far. This series is pretty even. But look, Boston Steel's game one. They have home court. They responded after every single loss. They have, the other thing I would say is they made Golden State adjusting game too. But that's the big thing here is like, Steve Kerr had to crack first and be like,

if we don't win this game, we're sunk. So I got to go ahead and start making adjustments now. Coaches in any playoff series, they want to wait to adjust as long as possible. You don't want to get out ahead of it because now you're in this race of your counters. counters and you're not doing what you do best. Kerr had a crack first. And now Emo Doka's got a full two days off before this game three to

counter program. The other thing I'd say is I look back, I went back and did the film and there's a big article over on action about game two and what happened. The Celtics, honestly, it wasn't even necessarily just like playing badly. It was just doing weird things. Like they junked

up their own spacing, which they haven't done. There's all these types of things. I cannot. In six, especially, I cannot believe that you guys are like, like, no, no, I feel great. Who does it like having lost home court in the very first game and then needing basically the Celtics to vomit on themselves in game two? We're good, baby. We're good.

Well, I don't agree with your framing. And my theory on this the entire time was the Warriors are going to lose one of the first two games. I firmly believe they were going to split. I also firmly believe that they will steal a game in Boston. I still subscribe to the best player in the series usually gives his team a chance to gives his team a little bit of an edge, which is why I have the Warriors in six, but also bought them at seven. And Steph Curry so far is the best player in the series. And you can't, you can't, You can't give me that look, Matt Moore. That's just fact right now.

He has been a game changer in this series. When he wasn't playing well, in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, the Warriors blow their lead when they weren't shooting well. When he is on fire and playing at full capacity and hitting shots that nobody should be hitting except for him, the Warriors go on and they dominate that game. And my feeling on this series the entire time has been, the warrior's ceiling on scoring is higher than the Celtics. And when everything is going right for them,

they have an opportunity just by virtue of the way the games are played to outscore Boston. We saw them in stark contrast. We saw that theory exactly proven right in game one in that they kind of shit the bed when they got into the second half. At the end of the first half, they couldn't score. In the fourth quarter, they couldn't score. for all the reasons why we think they can't score.

It's a little bit like Duke basketball. When they hit threes, they're unstoppable. When they don't, they can't. I am betting on the fact that the Warriors will find ways to hit threes and score more often than go cold in this NBA finals. Jason Tim, before Matt Moore can respond to me, because I know he's got something he wants to say, talk to me. So one of the things that Matt mentioned that I believe very strongly, and especially in the playoff series where you're trying to get a feel for process. because in a short sample size, wild things can happen, right?

Like in game one, Marcus Smart, Derek White, and Al Horford going 15 for 23 from 3. That's kind of wild, right? Or like in game two, you get Jordan Poole hitting half course shot. You know, like there's all these kind of random things that can happen. But you look at process, you look at what, like which team, you know, I like the way Matt said it. Like it just, the game looks a little bit easier for Boston in the sense that to get to get to get the kinds of shot. that they want to get when they really lock in defensively and they need to contain a certain matchup, it feels like they're more capable of doing so physically. The problem is, is they don't

get to that high end of their two-way basketball often enough, which is why I've always said they're the Jekyll and Hyde team of this playoff run. I think their best punch is better than anybody else's best punch. It's just been a question of whether or not they could get there frequently enough, which is why I picked Golden State to win this series in seven. I have not seen enough to justify switching that pick yet, but I do feel just slightly better about Boston now than I did before the series. The interesting thing was in game one, Boston was getting incredible dribble penetration, particularly with Jalen Brown, who's my sneaky pick for finals MVP if Boston wins. But the adjustment that Matt Moore mentioned was moving Dremont Green over to Jalen Brown.

Dremon Green's allowed to be very physical and uses hands with the way that this series is playing out. And he just basically held Jalen Brown in his place on the perimeter and turned him into a perimeter shooter, basically. In game one, he had 11 shot attempts in the paint. In game two, he only had four. But the flip side of that is IMA, Iudoca did absolutely nothing to try to punish that mismatch in reverse. So for instance, they didn't attack the offensive glass with Al Horford nearly enough. They only posted up Al Horford on Clay Thompson one time in the game where he immediately drew a double team and then he just didn't see the double team coming and ended up missing a shot. But in general, I do think Boston has a lot more moves to make.

Also, I think Boston has their best lineup entirely figured out. Derek White, Marcus Smart, Tatum and Brown and Al Horford, that's who they're going to go with when the chips are on the table. Whereas with Golden State, you can tell they're still kind of trying to figure out like how the perfect balance of offense and defense to go with. But at the end of the day, I mean, I think, I think Fandwell has basically at a coin flip right now, right? Golden State is just a barely a favorite at this point. You're getting home court for Game 7 for Golden State. You're getting the experience advantage. And what I do agree with you, Chad, even though I do think the next two, three, four

players are probably Boston, I think Steph is clearly far in a way, the best player in the series. He's playing his best NBA finals he's ever played to this point. And that's, you know, another huge card in Golden State's pocket. But my point is, as if you're a Boston fan, you should be feeling pretty good right now. Listen, Matt Moore, I'm not letting you talk yet because I know it's killing you that now Jason agrees with me in my assessment. Simon, you've invested heavily in the Warriors. The price is significantly lower than it was before the series. It's one one. Having seen two games,

do you now start investing again in the Warriors? Yeah, but I did, like Matt would brought it up that I bought more shares of Steph for MVP. It's a simple fact that he's looked the best through two games, in my opinion, as well, on offense. And in the game, too, we saw his defense really show up. And these writers, they all were talking about that two votes on these awards. So they already were going to give him a little bit of a leeway to win the MVP. And the fact that he's doing on both ends of the court now, which has always been kind of a knack on him is like, okay, great, he showed up on offense, but look how a liability was on defense. That's huge. And the fact he didn't play the fourth quarter in that last game, people were talking about that.

I mean, the guy, he is what makes that team go. So I bought a little bit more, not enough to really like go crazy about. But I did bet them again a minus one and a half to win this series because, again, as much as we're about talking to you about Boston at home court and what they think that's not been in game three, we've seen these playoffs. Boston has not been that good at home. They've been much better on the road. And we know Golden State through their history loves to play on the road.

Draymond loves to be hated. He feeds off the crowd. I think this is what Clay Thomas needs. He needs to get the hell out of his same brand, get out to Boston, clear his head. I think we're going to have a really good Clay game. So to me, I'm going to bet on Money Line either first game or the second game, but I can guarantee you if they lose first game,

I'll be on the Money Line goal in State second game. So start with you, Matt. What do you think is going to happen this game three? I'm heavy on Boston. This is like the one spot that I'm really targeted in the series for a game bet. A couple things. So Boston had a ton of turnovers in game two. That's been their Achilles heel,

and every Celtics writers talked about it. In games after they have 14 or more turnovers, which they had in game two in the playoffs, the Celtics are eight and three straight up, eight and three against the spread. After losses, there's six and oh straight up, six and oh against the spread with the average margin of victory plus 15.5.

That's defined them, these playoffs, is their ability to bounce back from losses. They haven't caught two in a row yet. But Golden State after a win this postseason, just six and seven against the spread. That's just part of the cap on this. Part of it also is we've talked about some of these things with, you know, Jason brought up Draymond Green on Jalen Brown. Like I mentioned the weird things Boston did.

So if you have Jail-Mong-Green on Jalen Brown, what do you want to do? Like you want to space them out, right? You want to get him out of the paint so that at least he can't muck up things as a help defender. Yeah, no, the Celtics put Jailen Brown in the dunker spot. and let Draymond Green just completely fuck up the, the Celtics drives. It was absolutely insane. Some of the same stuff happened where they put Clay Thompson on Robert Williams.

So Robert Williams can't do anything else. So he's in the dunker spot. And that contributed to how bad Boston was from two point range. So you've got bad Celtics adjustments, a lack of Celtics adjustments. You've got turnover issues, all these type of things. Two days to work on it. I genuinely think that this is a great Boston spot. They'll get good shooting at home.

Now, Chad, I don't necessarily think they're going to win two at home. I think it's possible. But I kind of lean towards Golden State winning to put this at two, two, in game four. But I do like Boston very much in the spot based off of what I've seen from the adjustments, how these games have played out. So on the Steph Curry front, look, if you're going to bet Warriors, I think Steph Curry is probably the best value here, right? You don't have to worry about them winning three of the next four.

You don't have to worry about that in order to make sure that you don't avoid the game seven if you're doing the minus one and a half. So if you're going to bet it, just bet Steph Curry, because I think Simon's right. Like, he's going to win. He's been the best player in the series, I guess. Like, a lot of this is, if you actually look at what happened,

here's what happened. Game one, the Celtics screwed up their coverage and played drop against them, and everyone was like, what are you doing? He goes five of 16 in quarters two through four in game one. Second game, right? He has 28 points on 21 shots. Good efficiency.

it's not otherworldly. And really when you go back and you break it down, here's what happened in the third quarter. They did things like, hey, let's play Daniel Tice and have him play drop against Steph Curry and see what happens to the point that I'm like, was Udoca just like lolling them into a false sense of security?

What's happening here? So like if you like the Warriors, I think Steph Curry is the play because Clay Thompson has been so bad in games one and two. So bad in games one and two. I have a hard time seeing anybody being able to get the scoring up to where it's like, I guess the default is Steph Curry, but ultimately, like, I don't necessarily, like, to me,

Curry's not solving the good coverage that the Celtics bring on him. The Celtics have just had breakdowns, really inexplicable ones. And when they've been locked in, Steph's having a hard time because he doesn't want to run pick and roll 50 times like he did in game two. That's not what he wants to do. That's not their offense. They're out of their comfort zone right now, and I think that matters. So sometimes I wonder, you know, Simon and I, we're NFL experts.

NFL betting experts say that with all humility. And yet sometimes because we are so inside of the game, it becomes harder for us to make the right decision when we're betting. And I feel like when I'm listening to hardcore inside NBA, NBA, analysts like Jason and Matt, but more so Matt than Jason, because Jason agrees with me. In this case, just in this case, just Matt, they keep accounting for inconsistencies in Boston as if this isn't going to happen when we've seen the evidence. It happens literally in every single playoff series. No joke.

First game of the playoffs, they are killing the Nets. and then Nets in the final three minutes, outscore the Celtics, go on a crazy run. The Celtics let Kyrie run loose, and they need a miracle slashing layup from Jason Tatum to win that game. And even the rest of the games were close, even though they won that 4-0.

And throughout the rest of the series, we see they don't beat the box without Chris Middleton going down. Jimmy Butler misses a wide open three. They lose that game in game seven. They had plenty of inconsistence performances against the heat, why am I to believe that they're not going to continue to do that and give the Warriors chances to win? Matt Moore, you say they're going to clean it up. I say it's going to keep

happening. I say this is the Warriors series to lose in six. I would say that you're right, that they probably are going to keep doing this, but you also can't look at Golden State. You want to talk about like, oh, they're not, they're not, those warriors aren't going to screw around, like getting beat by 50 in game five versus the Memphis Grizzlies. Like, this has been Golden States M.O. the whole time. Like, the defining moment for me of the Warriors entire time is not any sort of heroic championship moment. It's Steph Curry throwing the ball out of bounds in game seven after being up three one. This is who they are. You want to like, I agree with you that sometimes we can get

too much in the weeds so we can like bring it back. Who's been the best team since January 29th? Over five months of basketball. It's been the Boston Celtics. Just they've been better. you talk about, well, the Warriors have a higher ceiling. The Celtics entire design is to keep you from getting there. That's why they've had the best defense in the league, one that's been talked about as one of the better ones ever. I don't go that far. I think that's ridiculous.

This is not the 04 Pistons, but it's really, by the numbers, that's one of the better defenses we've seen over the last 20 years. So you have this combination of a team that will keep you from getting to it. Plus the Warriors, they're just, you see this with Clay Thompson. You see this with Jordan Poole. You see this honestly with Steph Curry. this is not Splash Brothers. They're just not the same team.

I read about this before the finals on action. This is just not that same team. They're different. I think they're really good and they can definitely win the championship. I don't think this is a lock by any means. But if we're looking at value with a team that stole one on the road already

that has won the first half in both of these games that's had a huge advantage in terms of how to make the tactical matchup decisions, I personally can't get into any sort of idea that this is like, oh, yeah, the Warriors have got this. I think if you're looking at the value, now right now, the Celtics are favored in a lot of spots.

I think you wait until the Celtics lose again if you want to come back in on them. Like, I think there's a good chance that there's a good spot to bet Warriors after game three because I think the Celtics are going to win game three. We look at the, again, the history of how they've played after they lose, says that the Boston Celtics are probably going to win game three at home. I think that's a good spot for you to get back in on the Warriors or Hedge. I think that's a perfectly fine spot because I do think Golden State's really good. But if we're talking about the matchup, if we're talking about team quality,

if we step back and we just go, okay, like who's the best player on the team, in between the two series? Steph Curry, all right, who's more easily able to actually influence things? Well, it's Jason Tatum because he can run pick and roll more. That's Jason Tatum. He's been amazing. He doesn't need to run five off ball screens to get an open three. So all of these kind of factors combine.

You go down the list of the remaining players. Marcus Smart hasn't played well yet. Jalen Brown honestly hasn't played great yet. I think there's way more upside for the Boston Celtics in the series. By the way, minus 36. Steph Curry would never get a minus 36. But Jason, just real quick, I want to hear what your view is on game three. Are you with him?

Are you just like Boston continues a trend? They just bounce back this whole playoffs after a loss. I'm again, I love going against trends like that because they're due. But I would love you where your view is on that. Jason, go ahead. Before you ask you ask you, let me just set some context here. Right now the Celtics are three and a half point. favorites in game three.

So my head is exactly where Chad is in terms of like the, my dealing with the Celtics team, this entire playoff run, I've never seen a team that like is so allergic to success. Meaning like they struggle to identify why they're winning and they immediately go away from those things. Their shot selection

in game two was appalling. There was a hilarious sequence where Tatum had Namanya Bializa, Golden State's worst defender on a switch. And he passed out of it, didn't take a shot. They went down. They got a stop. He came back down and shot an early clock pull up three over Andrew Wiggins and made it. And I'm literally sitting there and I'm like, how is it that you wouldn't shoot on their worst defender? And then you took an early clock pull up three on their best defender. I'm like,

what are you doing, man? But that's the that's the entirety of the way this Celtics team has approached every single game in this playoff run. It's like it's literally just incredibly volatile. Now, to the point about the home road thing, I don't think it's about a home road thing. Some teams psychologically are just unaffected by the arena. The Celtics are one of those teams. They're just an inconsistent team, which means they're going to lose at home, just like they're going to lose on the road. So the way I look at it, I think this game three will be the most dominant Boston game of this playoff run, the best game that they will have played in this entire run. The, I think it's a first NBA finals game at home for Boston since what, 2010. So you can expect just an incredible environment in that arena.

the Celtics just got their butts kicked, which to Matt's point, every time that's happened in this playoff run, not only have they responded, they've responded resoundingly. They come out and kick your ass in the next game. So from that standpoint, I think, and then also Golden State is a famous team that when things start to go bad, they'll pack it in for the next night because they're veterans, they'll bench guys in the fourth quarter. They've got guys dealing with injuries out of Porter's got a foot thing. Everybody's banged up, right? So I think this is the resounding Boston blowout game is game three. But then to Simon's point, I'd be sitting there at game four like, man, that gold state line looks really interesting because like I just don't expect them to

replicate that performance. When someone tells you repeatedly exactly who they are, I'm inconsistent, then you should believe them. And Boston has told you they are inconsistent. The NBA finals are here and so is your chance to score big on Fanduals sportsbook throughout the NBA finals. Fan Duel is giving new customers $200. in free bets, guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. Bet the money line, point spreads, player props, and so much more. Plus, you can combine your bets for an even bigger payday with the same game parlay.

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at least $5.10 first deposit required bonus issued as non-witrawable free bets that expires 14 days after receiving. Gamble problem. Call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 5,000. 3342 in Arizona, 1,800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1,887-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1,800-2707117-1-17 for confidential help in Michigan. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, Matt, how are you thinking about player props? Now that we've had a two-game sample size, you look at so many people bet Jason Tatum over 26-5, 27, 27-5.

I know you actually had an alt-line, by the way, like Warriors minus 9 or something like that. So good job in that one. A lot of people liked Andrew Wiggins over 16 and a half. He had 11. A lot of people liked Otto Porter over 7.5 points. He had three. how are you thinking about props during a series when teams are playing each other only against each other and you're starting to see adjustments you handicap props a little bit differently

I would imagine yeah so one of the things that we've really tried to target in on the playoffs on the action NBA side is trying to look at who's going to get written out of the rotation for me the biggest targeted honestly and this will probably surprise Jason a little bit it's Robert Williams I actually think Robert Williams is going to be a problem for Boston in terms trying to, like, they need to go small. When they have Williams on the court, it's like, oh, what a massive block by him. Oh, he stayed back and allowed Steph Curry to shoot three-threes off the bounce. That's, that's not what you want.

Like, you make Steph Curry make layups. And so I think Williams is going to be a spot. But the problem is, we run into this all the time of, do you want to get ahead of the coaching adjustment or do you want to wait for it? And with Kerr and Udoka, I also have to wait for it. There are some props I like in this one. Wiggins had 17. points in rebounds and only played 30 minutes.

That game's not a blowout if Boston just doesn't completely shut the bed offensively. He probably gets there. Steph Curry, 10.5 over assist in rebounds was a really painful one. He had 10 over 10. He had 10. I got hit by the hook and he sits the entire fourth quarter. I'm back on that for game three. I like assistant rebounds for Curry with where this is going to go even with expecting a Boston win in this one.

Brandon Anderson, who will not hesitate to always tell me how he would have known better, as he constantly victory lapsed on Bucket's our podcast. He was like, why were you guys betting the Tatum over assist prop? Because when the Celtic, you all thought the Celtics were going to lose game two. And when the Celtics lose, Tatum doesn't get assist. And his assist prop is like plus three over the line in wins. So this is obviously, I think a great spot to bet Tatum over on assist. I tailed Raybon because he's been red hot in game two, and that was a miss.

But I think this is a much better spot for it. The other one I really like here, honestly, is, okay, we think that Williams might play less, who plays more? And it's Al Horford. Al Horford, I think, gets a ton of minutes. I also found this at home. Horford is averaging 3.6 assist. That's a huge differential from his road splits.

And so his rebounds and assist only. So we just think that he's going to play a lot of five, get a lot of rebounds. He'll probably crash the offensive glass. more Jason talked about that adjustment. 12 and a half over is plus 104. So that gets us a really kind of a good number there, getting a plus number on what I think is a good spot for Al Horford. That's where I'm looking at for props. But as a general strategy, I think that you need to try and stay away from the obvious ones unless it's something like, oh, I think the Warriors are going to win. And the only way they win is if Steph has a huge game, some bad stepovers.

You should try and correlate those a little bit. But other than that, to be alternate markets for things like assist and rebounds is where there's more value. That is really good advice, Matt Moore. I don't know. I feel like we covered it all. I feel like we covered game three. I feel like we covered potential MVPs. I feel like we covered sort of who we like for the future.

We covered player props. What is it, Matt Moore? You want to say something? I have two things before we get out of here. One, Steph Curry has two games where he's had worse than a minus 36. Thank you, Simon. And two, I'm excited to be back on here next week to be told how I'm totally crazy that the Celtics are going to win when they're up three, too. Really quickly, Jalen Brown is plus 750 to win finals MVP.

Now, regardless of how you feel about the series, that's one hell of a number. And most importantly, Matt just hit on this with Live Moods today on Instagram. I was talking about how I liked Tatum's over assists at five and a half. The big thing there is it's breaking down with the way Golden State is guarding that the best dynamic for Boston is Tatum to almost play decoy just to get dribble penetration and kick out and start their driving kick. and for Jalen Brown to be there, let him loose gunning score. And I could see him, I think he's only 22 and a half for his over under points tonight, which I really like. And for the series, I could see him being just placed in terms of his role on the team as the dynamic score.

There's a real possible outcome here where Boston wins. He averages 26 points. Tatum has an inefficient, low scoring series, and he ends up getting finals MVP, and plus 750 is an incredible number there. Wow, that is really good. I think Matt Moore is shaking his head. He likes that too. I think if you like the Celtics,

you bet Jalen Brown MVP. If you like the Warriors, you bet Steph Curry MVP. Like to win the series, the number is built in that people are sitting out there are 40 to 1, 50 to 1 tickets on the Celtics right now to win the NBA championship. Like the Celtics were a huge,

huge, huge dog to win it all. So when you keep, people keep reaching out, they're like, why is this line so fishy? Like, why are the Warriors only minus 115? It's a lot of that that's built into it. Also, the bookmakers are, they're following a trend.

They believe Boston will win a game after they lose. So right now, in their mind, they have Boston winning the next game. So I know a lot of people have asked about the minus 150 and minus 110 for the series price. I don't think it's fishy. If you like the number, take it. It's not, I just want to overthink it. People are kind of overthinking it. There's a lot that goes into it.

Again, there's people sitting on 40 to one Boston to win it all tickets. It's the books, if Boston wins it all, they're probably going to take a loss. So it's something to keep in mind when you're betting these series prices. Don't over think it. Keep it simple, stupid. That's what we do here on the Favorites podcast, on the Volume Podcast Network for Jason Tim from the Volume Podcast Network, for Matt Moore from the Action Network for Simon Hunter,

my co-host. This has been the Favorites podcast. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Leave us a five-star review, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

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