The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFC Team Betting Updates

Episode Date: May 11, 2022

The NFL Draft dust has settled, and Action Network betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to break it all down, team by team. In this episode they go through every division in the NFC, discussing which teams are rising and which are falling... and most importantly who has betting value right away. Are Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals worth the risk? Can the Rams repeat as champions? And what was the best part of Action's big pre-Draft party in Las Vegas? #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Call 1-800-next-net-neck-100 next step or text. Next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-1-17 for confidential help. Michigan, 1877-770 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-9-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I'm joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, Micahadre, professional better. Simon Hunter

My man There's nothing bad than talking NFL football on early May I'm so happy we're about to do this We're about to do this man Listen it's a Tuesday afternoon

Or Tuesday I should say And we are going to Drop a pod Breaking down the NFC Post-Draft Analyzing Division odds, analyzing conference odds for all the NFC teams, bets that were made pre-draft on futures

for these teams, bets that were made post-draft, how lines have moved, especially with our friends at Fandul. And then Thursday's episode is going to be all the same stuff, but for the AFC. And I got to tell you, like, Simon, you know, we went to Vegas for the draft, right? And you and I recorded a podcast live from Vegas, at least I was in Vegas, because while you're, you know, young and virile and unattached and rich beyond any of your wildest expectations, it was too much for you to be in Vegas on 420, celebrating whatever 420 means. I don't know. I'm just an old person.

And then going back to Vegas a week later, whereas I, who in April, had been between starting on April 8th, Chicago, Puerto Rico, I get it, boogey, vacation, whatever, then Boston, then a cross-country flight to San Francisco, three days later, a cross-country flight back, 48 hours later, a cross-country flight to Vegas for our Action Network event in Vegas, and then home, in Vegas, I get COVID. And yet you're in the safety and sanctity of your own home the entire time. True. But I told you that was the, that's why I had a bad feeling about Vegas was I already pushed

you five days. And again, I'm the worst. I literally went to a guy I worked with his house. So I don't know if I went to, no, I did. I did go to the Bellagio. But I don't know. Again, you were with a lot more people than I was. I was literally out in the desert a couple of times.

No, I mean, we're going to let you tell a story. My favorite thing that happened to me, because I was around a lot of pros, old school guys too. So have you heard about Lake Mead? Yeah, yeah, I've heard about Lake Mead. You know what's happening there? Yeah, tell us the story. So the people don't know. They're running out of water pretty much.

The water is getting really short. And they're starting to find barrels. And what do you think are inside these barrels? Bodies. So it was really funny joking with all these guys. They're just like, I can't wait to hear about old pros we thought took off and lived a good life and they find them in these barrels because there's it's just Vegas one of these cities you meet people and they disappear there were no cell phones there were email addresses back in the day with

these guys. So it is funny hearing these guys talked about that lake because it's the lowest it's ever been historically. So it was hilarious being there that weekend all them talking about that. Yeah, it's pretty amazing. It's a pretty gruesome story. There were these people walking around along the edge of Lake Mead and the water levels in Lake Mead have dropped so much. They saw a barrel that was decomposing and looked inside and saw a skeleton with a shirt and a belt sticking to it. And the cops came out and said, this guy was probably a victim of a hit from the mob in the 80s. And yeah, you're going to see that a lot now. It is so weird to fly into Vegas and you fly over Lake Mead and you see the reservoir.

And the way, like you can see how the water lines. The color. It's so strange. And you can see it's, it's the, the color is crazy. and also the striations in the banks. Right, right, right. It's just, you know, you can see where it used to be. And it's totally stunning.

We had an action network event. It was amazing. It turned out to be an amazing event. Yeah, look fun. I actually honestly wish I was there. You would have loved it. A lot of fans were there. I appreciate everybody who came out.

Every single person asked me, where's Simon? We're signing. Next one. Next one. you know, I'm not the jealous type, Simon. I always want you with me. And so when people ask me where you are, I'm thinking, that's my guy. Of course we should be together at this event.

And it turned out to be a really fun event. It was a little bit of a sweet spot because there weren't a ton of media out there doing an event like this. We were doing it during a happy hour. It was a beautiful night. We were at the pool at Circa and had sort of an area roped off for us at Stadium Swim. beautiful venue. And we just had a blast, meeting fans, meeting other people in the media industry that came by.

Chris Long was there. So, you know, you had said to me last week on the podcast, when you meet Chris Long, mention the name Joe O'Malley. So I'm, it turns out like the space that we ended up using for some of the video with Chris Long, ended up being my hotel room. I was upgraded to a suite at the hotel. And so I had a nice size room and then I had a really nice size sort of living area, right?

And we were originally supposed to be in this one space circa and it didn't work out for shooting. So I said, hey, you guys, we can just use my suite. And so we set up like the whole crew. How much did you love saying that to multiple people? Yeah, and they just use my suite. Guys, you can use my suite. Guys, use my suite.

Guy, guy. I'm saying it here for the first time. I've been saving so much stuff for this podcast. So I'm getting in the elevator to go up to the room to see the shoot. And it turns out that's right when Chris Long had just gotten in the elevator. So he's standing with one of our producers and they introduce me. I'm like, oh, hey, cool, man. And first thing I said to him, I said, listen, I got a podcast.

I go, and I look at him and I go, it's very popular. And he goes, aren't all of our podcast popular? And like, because it's just an inside joke. Everyone's got a fucking podcast. And everyone does. Everyone says their podcast is so big, right? So he's impossible not to like off the bat. Also, he's one of those people that is just so empirically good looking.

You don't even think people like that exist, right? Cheap bones. All about the cheekbones. He's huge. He's rich. He's a great athlete, perfect face, right? So I say to listen, the co-host of my very popular podcast said, didn't mention one name to you. He goes, what? I go, Joe O'Malley, his, his mouth dropped to the floor.

Like he was stunned. He was like, dude, legend. Legend. I told you, when I say legend, I'm not lying in life, people. You know what's annoying? It wasn't enough to make him feel like, I got to get on your podcast and talk to this guy. Oh, wow. No, I mean, he's big time. He's big time. He's really big time. I wonder if we get more listens than he does, though. we probably do during the football season i mean i'm not not to not to say that he doesn't know what he's doing with NFL but i mean he's he's he's he's owned by a gambling company now so he does a lot of sports gambling stuff himself so i doubt that he listens to our show just because we do the same stuff that's right that's right so that was number one open offer i'd love to have him on i mean

yeah maybe we can figure that out um that was number one number two uh i go to the go to the event uh i I ended up coming home with COVID. I can feel, I know exactly when it happened. It was at the event. Like I felt, I felt like a little bit of someone's like spittle on my face at one point after too much close talking. I'm like, oh my God, I just got COVID. Here's what's crazy. Okay.

So the next morning, I go through security. I get on the shuttle, the train, the tram from security to the D gates at Las Vegas here at the airport, Harry Reid, an international airport. And I get on the trim, and there's a guy who's like, sucking sort of the webbing between his thumb and his finger. And it looks really weird. I'm like, oh, fuck. This guy's going to kill everybody, right? And then he takes his hand out of his mouth. And he's like, gut.

Blood is gushing all over his hand. I'm like, oh, my God, he's going to kill us. But he had a machete in his bag and he cut himself first. And then he puts it back in his mouth. And like, it really looks like it's painful. I happen to have a bunch of band-aids in my bag. So I hand him like a whole load of band-aids. And he's like, thanks so much.

I appreciate it. I reached into my bag and my razor was in the side pocket and I forgot. I cut my hand. Great. Don't see him. After that, we both get off the tram, go our separate ways. I go up to my gates. I get some food.

I'm lounging. I'm talking to people. Just giving them all COVID. Look at you go. Yeah, right? Exactly. You know what? I was wearing a mask.

I was one of the few people like in the airports. and on the plane wearing a mask. So I'm wearing the mask. I'm talking to people, whatever. And I get on the plane, I board the plane, I sit down on my seat. Right before the door closes, this guy gets on sits right next to me.

Oh my God. I say to him, I say to him, how's your hand? He goes, it's really good. Thanks. I go, what are the fucking odds? He goes, it's pretty crazy. So you know what I did? I slacked Sean Croner and Nick Giffin,

our predictive analytics geniuses. And I actually said to them, what are the odds that this would happen, that this guy would sit next to me? And they did the math. They did the math. And they basically narrowed it down. Matt Mitchell, keep me honest on this. I think it was 450,000 to one that this would happen.

Because they basically said, there's this number of gates, this number of flights leaving, this number of seats on the plane. Right. The chances of this happening are X. And it both was amazing to me that they figured it out and also like completely removed the mystery for me. And the reason I tell the story is, A, was just amazing, but B, our friends, Mike and Jen Schiffman, Mike is a regular listener of the podcast, works at ESPN. We're over on Friday night. And I was telling the story. And Jen Schiffman, she's like, dude, that's a segment.

What are the odds? What are the odds? What do you think of that? Should we do that? What are the odds? Like, listeners can send us their happenstances, their coincidences, and we can determine what are the odds of those things actually happening in real life. I mean, I'm not going to get too into it because I don't want people. People already think I'm crazy on this show, but they don't even know how deep I think about life and other things like that. But basically those things like that would like,

you decide what that guy happened to me constantly in life. I'll see someone and I will see them multiple times, say throughout whatever it is. Like when I went to Mexico, I forget what the guy's name was. I basically had to go back to Miami from Cuba to go back to Mexico. And this guy at the airport, same exact thing. I sit at this guy.

I look at him maybe for two minutes because I'm like, I know him from somewhere. I end up sitting next to him on my airplane. And it's just one of those things where there's just like weird little coincidence in life like that. But I feel like it happens. If you pay attention your surroundings and people, it happens way more than you believe, Chad,

little things like that. Like, I'll never forget this once I went to the supermarket, me and this woman, there was the last bananas left. I said, you can take it. Not even 20 minutes later, I'm at CVS. That same woman is walking on the aisle in CVS. Like we were both doing our Saturday errands. And I was like, this is weird.

So, I mean, there's just little weird things like that. I can off top of my head. Listen, life moves in mysterious rhythms. Amen. If people have anecdotes like this and they want to send them in, Matt Mitchell, where should they send them? Go ahead and send those to podcasts, plural, at actionnetwork.com. I have no idea if this will be an interesting segment or not.

I have no idea of people. I have no idea of people send him in, but, you know. Because that is, that is insanely weird where it's like you're the only person you offer this guy, any type of aid. Yeah. It sits next to you. Insane, right? Totally insane.

All right. Simon. So the draft did happen and it continues to be one of the best events in the world to watch. I got on late Thursday night from Vegas, watched it, stayed up late watching it, watched it Friday night. I was like one of the main things I was watching instead of the NBA. I just fucking love it.

I love everything about it. It's so good. You wanted to see this year I didn't drink or party during the draft. Do you want to see what I did during my draft while watching? Yeah. Simon is turning around. He's grabbing something from behind. He made a Lego DeLorean.

First Lego I bought almost, I'd say 20 years. Why did you do that? Why did I buy a Lego DeLorean? Yeah. I was like, how can I keep myself occupied while watching a draft that they only draft every 10 minutes? Because I didn't want to booze with a bunch of people. I just wanted to watch it and actually like enjoy the draft. Because usually when I bet big money on it, I go to a party.

So I'm not thinking about all the money. I'm about to lose of the draft. But this year was a little different. I love the draft though this past year. I mean, again, the Vegas thing, that to me was pretty cool. Just the whole view of it was pretty cool. And it was just great to see fans again at these drafts. because, like, as an Eagles fan, going to that draft in Philly, it was so cool.

Like, I'll never forget that Dallas Cowboys guy, like cursing us all out. Like, that was just a really cool experience. I think that was day two. I mean, getting the draft, Chad, who is the biggest winner of the draft in your opinion? Before we go through all the teams, do AFC or NFC. Are you going to go with everyone saying the Jets? Well, I'm not actually thinking about the Jets. To me, I'm a sucker, right?

And so the kid from Michigan who tours Achilles and otherwise it would have a bit of top pick that went to Baltimore. That's what I was like, I kept saying to my son, I'm just so sad for this guy. I'm so sad for this guy. Like it's just stunning to me, you know, the turn of events and the misfortune. And then I was so thrilled that he got drafted by the Ravens, a great organization to develop him by his defensive coordinator in college, who will now be his defensive coordinator in the pros and give him sort of the time he needs to heal, put him in a position to succeed.

he'll do great and in four years get his big money contract like it's hard to time your shot right it's hard to have everything line up so your moment matches the market and this kid was so close and his pro day to tear his Achilles and have to basically start over i just you know i feel bad for him so i and i think the ravens did an amazing job drafting the jets I don't fucking know. Like, sure, they got the best players in the spots that they happened to need because they had high picks. I think it was a good move to trade up to get the defensive end from Florida State. But we don't know anything in these things.

Like, nobody knows anything. So, sure, they had a great draft. I was so focused on the bears. Like, I could live with a defensive back with the first pick. I mean, the Bears practiced really excellent, like, social distancing in their secondary last year. Like they were COVID truthers about how much they were going to stay away from people in the defensive secondary last year because they wouldn't guard anybody. No, I like your GM. He seems like he's a nerd.

I like that. Like, he seems like he's very by the math. I guess I wish, like, I kind of feel like they stretched for that receiver from Tennessee who's going to be 25 and is really a kick returner. Like, we didn't get Justin Fields anybody. At least you didn't use a pick on Kevin White, so. There you go. There you go. No, but I was lining you up, Chad.

That's what we're all killing. You're supposed to talk about the Philadelphia Eagles because we're talking about the NFC East. Oh, well, you. I know, I know. We're just out of sync here. Low-hanging fruit. Of course, Chad said the Ravens did great in the draft. Everyone in the entire world every year tells about how good the Ravens doing the draft.

And every year, they either don't make the playoffs or leaving the first round. Get out of here with your love for the race. Wow. Every year. Wow. The Kyle Hamilton, obviously, he's our guy. That was a great pick by them. But yeah, the Ravens, every year, everyone's like Ravens killed another draft.

They're the best. Who does it better? Yeah, what have they done since Joe Flackle left all those years ago? All right, fine, Simon. Listen, we want to, we're going to start about the NFC. We are. Let's talk about the NFC East. That is the one that we want to talk about first.

Jerry Jones showed everybody in the world their draft board. That was amazing. That was so cool. That insight. Yeah. I love that. Right now, the Cowboys, let's line it up. The Cowboys plus 105 at Thandul to win the NFC East.

Eagles plus 240. Washington commanders plus 450. New York football giants who a lot of people say had a good draft too, plus 650. Let's talk about your Eagles. That's where the value is right now. It's got to be the Eagles. It's debatable because they've been. bought up a little bit at this point because everyone I think has the same view as us where it's

like that that draft couldn't have gone any better for Howie. I do think he traded up to get Williams and then Detroit moved up the pick before and took him to buy receiver. So he did the next beth's thing. He took an absolute freak detackle that's going to replace Fletcher Cox. And again, that the Eagles D line is unbelievable. That's the biggest strength of their team. And then he went and made the trade for AJ Brown, which you're looking at this market. He gave up, you know, a first round pick. And I mean, basically this kid is 24 years old. So we just paid him. I think it's $100 million. So basically he's locked up now because he saw as a year left on his deal plus the four years. So he's got five years left. He's going to be out of here

at maybe 29. I have no idea if he's going to be good. I've seen AJ do some incredible stuff. I've also seen him have a ton of injuries. He's always got these tissue injuries. He'll play really well for a quarter, make a catch, and then go off the field because he's grabbing his side or something like that. So I like AJ a lot. He's only 24 years old. I'm about the move for Howie. So for me, the Eagles at plus 240, I think that's pretty good value. But my job is to bet on the best value of everyone in the division. How do I not take the Washington commanders? Like, no one wants to bet on them. Their owner is a piece of crap. They have the worst name in all football. They're ugly. Everyone, I mean, they're the grossest team, one of the grossest teams right now in all football.

I'm getting easily, easily plus 150 of value on them. Like, no doubt about it, just because everyone's out on Calhurt. I think Colin Cowherd is only one that's in on, in on Wendt right now. Everyone's out on once. So it's like Calhord's the only other person I've seen back him. I don't think, by any means, I think he's a great quarterback, but I think this is a great spot for him. He's on a team that's pretty good. they almost made the playoffs last year with a, I mean, literally a kid that was off the streets.

Like Fitzpatrick got hurt. They, they're starting undrafted free agent quarterback. So to me, if I'm going best value right now on the NFC East, and if you want to get money down right now, I wouldn't do the egos. I wouldn't do the Cowboys. I actually would do the commanders because that's the best value. No one's betting them. You can look it up online, the numbers.

No one's betting that team right now in the women's division. You know, the H.A. Brown thing is really interesting. you've got two very different ways of thinking about your team in its future. And what the Eagles have done have basically said, we're going to get the best available talent for our quarterback, who we're not entirely sure of his ability yet, but we're not going to be able to really judge him if we don't give him the best tools. I think that is a phenomenally thoughtful way of trying to evaluate.

You want to know if a guy is going to be great, give him greatness around him. Because the number of people who succeed when they aren't complimented by other assets is very small. In football, you can basically say it's Tom Brady. And that's it, right? Because he succeeded no matter who was around him. And for a large part of that time, he did have the best tied end, probably in the history of football and usually an overachieving defense. But, like, this is a great move by the Eagles. Also really interesting move by the Titans.

A very forward thinking, very progressive, very, we're going to get our ducks in a row. We're not going to be held hostage by what the fans might think, or what our quarterback might think. We're going to go with what our gut and what our financial sense is telling us. We're going to get rid of A.J. Brown. We're going to get a guy who might be 80%. We don't know, but we're hoping. for a lot less money, and it allows us to make the entirety of the team better.

That, to me, is like really smart, judicious thinking by both sides. Two different ways to do it. Yeah, definitely pretty risky. But I, again, I love to be the Eagles fan that shits on everything, but I can't get over how, howie Roseman has become basically like the Bill Belichick of GMs. If you look at the tree right now of all the different GMs in football and all the guys who work for them, it's incredible all the people.

have been poached from the Eagles that are running all these different teams. And I have to have faith in him where he likes this move. And again, like you just talk about Hertz, the kid in his first year starting took a team to the playoffs. Yeah, the Eagles were not that good. And they probably got in there off an easy schedule. Guess what they have this year? They have another easy schedule. So to me, it's it's a no-brainer where they're going to see what Hertz can do this year. And if he's not that good, they have the draft capital of draft quarterback next year. So how he's really set this up great for this Eagles team that like you just said, he's surrounded them with every weapon he could ask for to be good. I mean, look at fields with the bears. He's he's got

nothing. So there's certain teams that they they take a while to get there. The Eagles are here. Like they have the weapons. There's no real excuse for hurts. So it's as a fan, it's exciting. But as it better, just take a step back. They're not that much greater than the commanders. I know they have a lot of sexy names right now, but I'm telling you, like between these two teams on paper, there's not that big of difference just because the Eagles don't have any really good safeties. They don't really have good cornerbacks. I know they have sleigh on one side, but when they run nickel, they have major issues.

So there are some weaknesses to this Eagles team other than Hertz having to step up this year. So with the Washington commanders, they chose Jahan Dotson, the Penn State receiver with their first pick. I think he had one drop in three years of playing at Penn State. Yeah, he was great. I mean, I watched a lot of Big Ten this year just because he was always on. He was fantastic

all year for a pretty pathetic Penn State offense. And then they filled needs in the defensive secondary that they needed as well. Plus, they got everybody's favorite quarterback who turned into nothing special in North Carolina, which was Sam Howell. I think it's about two weeks before people are saying, when are we going to see Sam Howell replacing Carson Wentz? Probably again. He's going to have a very short leash. And we've seen Carson melt when the spotlight's on. All right.

So Washington commanders plus 450. Giants are plus 650. Look, they got the defensive end they needed. they got the offensive linemen. They needed two great picks. Everyone thinks they're amazing. It was so fun to watch. There was a video of the new Giants coach calling, I think, Evan Neal.

Yeah. And it was like the stiffest conversation ever. And then Mike Tomlin calls Kenny Pickett. And I mean, look, if there's a moment for the first Mike Tomlin drop of the new 2022, 2023 NFL season, it's right now. Because you want to run through a wall. Like, he calls Kenny Pickett. He's like, Kenny Pickett.

Kenny, what's you doing tonight, man? What y'all got going on? Hey, we're about to make you a Pittsburgh Steeler, brother. Congratulations to you and your family. Bro, we're excited to have you, man. This is awesome. And, like, Brian Dayball is like, hello, son, how are you? I want to play for the football Giants?

Like, where's the spirit, man? I'm not knocking Brian Dayball. I'm sure he's a great coach. I'm sure you can rile people up. But that video, like, you want to go play for Mike Tomlin. Yeah. Well, my mom who knows nothing about NFL really calls him. She's like, Simon, do you know about this, Kenny Pickett? And I'm like, yeah, I know about Kenny Pickett. And she's like, is he good? I work with his mother. And I'm like, no, you do not. She goes,

I do. And my mom's known his mom, say for like five years, she never knew her kid played college, like a very humble family. So it was just really funny. My mom out of nowhere. Apparently he's from the Jersey Shore. So he's like, he's probably like half an hour, 45 minutes from where I grew up down the beach. small world, Kenny Pickett, going first round, pretty crazy. Get him on the pot. We can have him and Chris Long on the pot.

All right. I'll see what I can do, actually, honestly. The playoffs are heating up and you can make every game feel like Game 7 on Fanduil Sportsbook, an official partner of the NBA. Throughout the playoffs, all customers can place a no-sweat

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I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast,

or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.

So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Let's talk about the NFC North because the Packers, you know, they gave Aaron Rogers a lot of help. Not, not really. The Vikings, the Packers are minus 180. The Vikings are plus 300. The Bears plus 950. The Lions plus 950. Lions, Aiden Hutchinson. You had Aiden Hutchinson to go number one. Yeah. How did it fare for you overall? Because obviously that was going to be a pretty significant loss. Well, luckily, woke up in the same, what I talked about, like if you wake up and the odds are still

minus 400 for Walker, that meant Walker was probably going to be the first pick overall. So it didn't get burned too much, but I mean, it was pretty boring. Luckily, Kyle Hamilton dropped, which, like, I needed him not to be in the top 10. Again, love the kid. It's just, you look at a draft where safety isn't valued as

other positions with the money. So, yeah, I, we talked last year coming into the year, Chad, that we're going to be one of the few people that love the lines all year because the lions were so bad. And I knew coming to this year, I was going to love the lines, no matter what, just because I loved what they're building there, which is they're building a D line, they're building an O line. Like to me, you build that and you can build a rest out. It's like the most important part of a football team in my opinion.

So everything they've done, I mean, dude, I might have looked before the draft. I think they're plus a thousand 200 on Fandul. So they've moved. A lot of monies come in because people like what they did the draft. I love what they did the draft, but I already love them coming into this. The draft, it's, if you're going to listen to this show for the next three years, I'm going to tell you to bet them to win the division and win the Super Bowl every year. Like, I already bet them at 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.

I bet them at 12 to 1 to win this division. I'll bet this again at 9 to 1 to win the division. I love everything about the Detroit team. Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Jared golf, but last year, offense schemed around his his weaknesses. They like really they kept things underneath. They didn't put him in a position of throw turnover and make intercept. And so if they can get a cornerback or find someone to play corner for them, this is a really good team. Their defense is really good. Their offense is actually stacked. So it's not surprising seeing their number of moves.

I get you by the time to be closer to season, everyone's going to be talking with the Lions. They're just a really fun team. And gamblers like us, they won money in last year. So to me, I would still grab that number at 9 to 1. I love the line this year. I think they're great value. They picked up Jameson Williams with the 12th pick. They moved up 20 spots to get them. They picked up Josh Pascoe from Kentucky. And then they really didn't go defensive back until late in the third round. They got Kirby Joseph, the safety from Illinois. Jared Gough, I was in the Bay Area and visiting family that lives in the East Bay. And of course, Of course, I met someone at one of the events I was at, whose hair stylist is a cousin of Jared Gough.

He said that Jared Gough... Get him on the pod. Jared Gough used to not be very nice. But since he's been traded to Detroit, he's been humbled, much humbler around his family. Yeah, he was a shithead. I mean, we all watch Hard Knocks. I mean, come on now. So that's great.

Again, he's an idiot. So in my opinion, I like the kid. I think he plays hard. He's just not smart enough to be a quarterback on this league. So they can do stuff. They can kind of hide it. But once he starts having to make reads and figure out the defense, he's done. So to me, it's like I would, I was praying they were going to trade for Jimmy G.

I would love if Jimmy G. Or even Baker, if that went to Detroit. But here we are. We got golf again. I'm not a huge fan of it, but I will be betting them the next couple years because You know, golf's not great this year. Hopefully Detroit finishes, you know, the bottom two. Again, they draft one of these quarterbacks.

But that was cracking me up thinking about if they just had Stafford still, this team would be amazing. But that ship is sale. All right. Well, the Bears are plus 9.50. You know, don't do it. Don't do it. No.

Them in Minnesota, every year they suck people in. It's just don't. Minnesota is just not there yet. I know people like their drafts. I think they're building for the future. I do like their GM as well. Minnesota's new GM. And yeah, Green Bay is boring.

We're not here to be a minus 180 on division teams. Can we talk about the Bears for one more second? I just got to get it off my chest. How do you not find talent to protect your quarterback and to give him weapons? I know, I know Ryan Poles. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt. He's saying we were going for the best athletes available that filled the positions we needed. But come on, man. He's got nothing to work with, Chad.

Your ex-O-GM, he sold everything. You sold the radio. You sold the airbags. There was nothing left in the car. Like, it's, you need another year or two. It's just, it's dark days right now with the bears. All you're, all you're hoping for is just growth from Justin Fields. Like, that's all you hope for this year, because the team just doesn't have anything around them to really make you a contender. It's hard to grow when you're running backwards for your life and you have no one to throw the ball to, 17 weeks out of the year. I think it'll be better. Like, again, you have to get someone that actually believes in him,

unlike the last head coach, something that builds an offense around. I think it's going to look a lot different. All right. Well, that's an easy division. Like, the Packers aren't going to be the value. The Lions are clearly sort of the class. The fact of they're running down.

Yeah, they're being bet down. That just shows everyone else is on it. So I would get that number now if you're going to tie your money up for six months. All right. So now the NFC South all of a sudden it becomes very interesting. to, right? Bucks minus 320 Saints plus 500. Panthers plus 1,100, Falcons plus 1,900. I mean, you got to bet on, like, you can't bet on the box, but there's no reason to really believe in anybody else.

James. Now, if you can parley, yeah, if you can parley divisional winners, like a bucks bills parley, love it. Like, love the bills when their division. Love the bucks win their division. It's just Tom Brady is a division killer. like he literally turned this division into the AFC East in two, three years. Like these teams, they scrape the whole team. Just like,

why bother? Like, why even try in this division? So, yeah, no faith in any team in this division. I mean, the Saints, they have the highest upside. If I had to put money down on a value team in this division, yeah, I bet the Saints just because if Winston can be good, they got still a pretty good defense and a pretty good offense. So I would say Saints, but I'm not touching. This is one of those where I'm going to do, bunch of big money parlays with the bucks, the bills, and a couple other divisional teams we'll talk about that.

I think we're going to win. All right. Let's just skip over. Let's go right to the NFC West. Home of the Super Bowl champion, Los Angeles Rams, plus 140 to win the division. The 49ers plus 185, the Cardinals plus 310, the Seahawks plus 1,000. I mean, look, the Cardinals Super. interesting with Kyler Murray.

They traded for Hollywood Brown. They must have known that the suspension for DeAndre Hopkins was coming. You don't know what you're going to get. You're losing him for the first six games of the year. You got Cliff Kingsbury who usually, you know, forgets how to coach come November. The 49ers have some serious quarterback confusion and a wide receiver running back in Debo Samuel who only wants to be a wide receiver and doesn't want to do it in San Francisco. go. And then you got the Rams that are a team of all-stars coming off a Super Bowl win.

And they got better. You can arguably say they got better this offseason, honestly. So, yep, Rams, one of those teams, I'll throw them in with the bills. I'll throw them in there with the bucks, a couple of parlays with them. They're another one of these teams. But best value by far, Cardinals. Cardinals, they choked this division away. They had this division last year. And they blew it the last two weeks of the season or three weeks. So it's like everything you just said they're so true about this Cardinals team, they're the best value by far in this division. If you're looking for a purely value-based bet, and I bet money on them just for this division just because of it, they're closer to plus 200. I mean, there's, there's no way they're

close to plus 300. Everyone's just reacting off the Hopkins news. And, you know, Kyler, I don't want to call him a little moody bitch, but that's what he is. It's like, who are you to be saying, this team doesn't support me and doesn't do this and that, where it's like, all your team does is support you and are trying to do what's best for you in this team. So I don't know. I don't love the drama there with him, but I would say that's the best value just because the Cardinals, them and the Rams aren't that far apart. Like that talent level is pretty equal. The Rams, to me, they just get the edge because I trust the coaching like we just talked about. It's, it's a big deal come November, December. So if you're saying best value to meet Cardinals,

but safest bet here, I would say Rams. Like Super Bowl hangover, I, I, I, I, I like to play that card, but with this Rams team and all the mature guys they have on it, these are the kind of team that does repeat when they have a lot of veterans. They're not some young team. Like these guys are all established veterans. Why do you say they got better? I just like the moves they made this offseason. Again, losing von Miller was tough for them, but they've added other pieces to their defense.

And on offense, Whitworth retired, and then they re-signed at Note Bloom, who honestly, when he stepped in was just as good as him. I don't think they're going to, people are downplaying how much they've lost because they lost a couple of veteran guys, but they've replaced it, in my opinion, this off season. I'm a, they have one of the schedules this season that's pretty, pretty tough. So if you do want to wait on the Rams, you could find better value later in the season if they have a really tough start to the season. That number will definitely go up because we saw last year, right, Chad, this, this division was flip-flopping every week with who had the best odds. I remember last year, I was all in on the 49ers. The wise guys were all in on the Rams. I thought Shanahan was a better

coach than McVeigh. And in a lot of ways, I still agree with that. What McVey did with this team was genius, but there were plenty of times last year where it wasn't so much a coaching decision that won them in the game. It was great play to get them out of bad coaching decisions that won them games. And the Niners all of a sudden, to me, a plus 185, obviously not a huge number, but you're looking at a team that is really good. And a coaching staff that doesn't get frazzled the quarterback situation is what keeps me from wanting to be heavy on the Niners right now. That is a tricky one because I don't know who they play. I don't know who they play to sort of keep the locker room together.

And again, they're trying to play it off saying Jimmy's cool with and so is Trey, but they're such a up and down team. We've seen it year to year where like they go to the Super Bowl. The next year they have a top three pick. They make the playoffs the next year they have a top two pick. It's like very bizarre with this four-in-hner team. but yeah, I just, I don't love the value on them because I, again, I don't see them being that much better than the Cardinals. It's just Cardinals aren't the sexy team.

That's why you're getting that kind of big number on them. All right. So I want to wrap up the NFC and say that we like the Cardinals at plus 310 for the best value in the NFC West. NFC South, forget it. Find a way to parlay the bucks with another big team, maybe the bills. NFC North, we're liking the Detroit lines at plus 950, and then the NFC East. We're liking the Washington commanders at plus 450 on Thursday.

The next episode, we're breaking down the AFC post-draft. Obviously, we just did the NFC. For Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. What are the odds? You love this show. Let us know.

Give us a five-star review. Rate, review, subscribe. All feedback is a gift. Say whatever you want. Just give us the five stars. Download it from Apple Podcasts from Spotify. Wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time.

Love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and Holowel. Various guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. call it grotesque, others say it's

unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to

Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.