The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets 2022

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

The NFL offseason is hurtling to a swift conclusion, so Action Network betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with a roundup of their top picks heading into Week 1. The guys are high on the Jaguars and Eagles, but hesitant to buy the hype on the Buffalo Bills. Plus, we hear their takes on each division, their darkhorse MVP candidates and so much more. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Gambling problem. Call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 533442 in Arizona. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia. 1-888-8-9-7-7-77. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. 1-877-7-0.

Stop. in Louisiana, 1-877, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467, 369 in New York. Tennessee Redline is 1-800-889-9-9-8-8-8-9-7-8-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter, we got to go, man.

We got a freaking go. No smote talk, right? Just right into football. We'll go right on in. We're not going to dilly dally here. I want to frame the premise of this show, which is essentially you and I who love football, love betting on football, love talking about betting on football, taking a smorgasbord of every.

everything we've talked about for the past couple of months as the summer was ramping up into the season and just gathering our favorite topics and our favorite bets and throwing them out there. So here's something that you've kind of convinced me on. And, you know, I got a lot of jobs, right? I'm really important. I got to executive eyes all the time. And I got to build strategies. I've got to hire people. and I got to fight battles and put out fires. But I also find time to do my research. And you've really had me come around on the Jags. Wow.

We started with the Jags. We just lost all, half our listeners, just stop listening. Yeah, I know, right? But I look at the AFC South, and you know what I think of the South divisions in football. Yeah, irrelevant, don't matter. Nope. teams.

No one cares. No one cares. The fan base doesn't leave their very small provincial region. But the jazz are interesting. And to me,

it comes down to two things. The Doug Peterson, Frank Reich, mythology. And I want to lay it out for you. Doug Peterson went to Super Bowl with the Eagles. He creates an offense

that is ahead of the curve in terms of thinking analytically, going for it with the Super Bowl with a backup quarterback and Nick Falls. Frank Reich was the quarterback coach. He leaves, goes to Indy, has had some success. I think more credit than he deserves given he hasn't won the division and has tended to have his teams lose important games when it matters the most. He banked on Carson Wentz last year. Everyone believed he was a genius who could turn him around.

I think the genius is Peterson, and I think he's got a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence, and I think this division is ripe for the taking Jags plus 800 to win the division. Now, shout to our loyal fans who, when I say crazy things, they don't question it, they just bet it, and they were able to get the Jaguars at 12 to 1 to win this division when we gave it out. So to me, Chad is exactly what you talked about. We were just ahead of it in the sense that we looked at the landscape. We saw who is the most doubted team right now in football because of last year's performance. And it's, I mean, the Jags just stuck out.

We knew all they had all this talent. We just knew it was the coach, right? We knew all along it was Urban Meyer. I mean, we, I can't tell you how much money I lost Chris Rayburn every week was laughing. He said, you don't bet on this man. Do not stop betting on him. I just couldn't do it because I just kept looking at the Jaguarian saying they have the talent, at least now have the coaching.

So now, fast forward to this season, I feel like you nailed it, Chad. that it's we're betting on, we're betting on Doug. We're also betting on Trevor Lawrence, who's the number one pick who, I mean, coming out, this guy was getting five people who know what they're talking about that can scout talent compared to him Andrew Luck, the John Elway kind of thing where it's like this is a can't miss prospect. We saw what happened last year, Joe Burrough. He took that year two step as the first pick.

And again, we were getting really good odds. We were betting on the Jaguars. And I feel like you just touched on it, though. It's still pretty good odds. It's still moving, though, because I feel like the public is joining us. now. They're kind of coming around. Again, this is a part of a view of just the division you just talked about. We all have these question marks with this Colts team with this Titans team. I mean, Houston, no one even wants to talk about them. So to me, it's just funny. We're in your division

that, you know, coming to the year, I still think Houston has the best value technically in this division just because they're not going to be as terrible as people think. But realistically, a team that could actually make a good run in this division and make a playoff berth and win a playoff game, it's the Jaguars. It's always been to me. So I love that you've come around. It hurts. That's a little late. You know, it's late August here, early September. But, you know, it's better late than ever. So it's going to be fun this season going into it where people are going to be like, well, how are we going against the Jaguars? The Jaguars are your favorite team? Once the season starts, it's over. Like done the future talks. But right now, me and Chad

projecting out, I still love this Jaguars team. I love the value. Division, Super Bowl, all of it. again, it's all about taking a positions that we can hedge later on. So to me, yeah, one of the no-brainers, I love that you started with the Jaguars. It's an easy bet for me just because, again, second year quarterback, new coach, tons of talent all around them. It's a big year for this offense. I'm interested to see how they're going to start out this year just because he just nailed it, Chad. It's a lot on Doug Peterson right now. He has all the tools.

Can he put it together? Again, he did run a really good offense. It was part of that RPO offense and kind of took the league by surprise. eyes. So can that often still work? We'll see. Do you want me to continue with my theories? I would imagine you have something to add that could be a potential best bet. Yeah, I got everything you need. I literally, I was just going through my books before he came on because you asked me for my best bet, which is like almost impossible to do. I just have so many bets. And it's funny, I have like no bets on teams what people expect. Like I almost have zero dollars invested in the bills. Just a couple of teams where it's like I have no money in them just because I think they're overrated or over.

revalued. And it's just like, I know, bills might be the best team the AFC, but are they that much better than every other team that everyone's betting against? No, it's like, we saw Ravel yesterday. Ravel said the most money, most tickets, Super Bowl winner is on the bills. Everyone's all in on the bills. It's not even close. So that's what's going to be funny going through this. People are just going to hate these gross teams we're betting. Well, before we walk away from the Jaguars, are the Jaguars to win the division, Jaguars in any circumstance? And I want to say a couple things. A lot of good best Bet's content on the Action Network podcast.

People should go listen to it. But also any other Jaguars bets that you are thinking is a best bet. If I hadn't said the Jaguars right now, would they be the first best bet you're offering? No, but I would have gave out their Super Bowl odds just because it's a good number. But I would say to anyone, if you're hesitant on the Jags, look at their schedule. You can afford to wait a little bit with this team just because that week one, that line stinks. It's them versus the commanders. I know plenty of pros have taken the four,

taking the four and a half of the Jaguars. I think it's down to three and a half now. So if you already missed the boat of the Jaguars, you want to wait a week, I got no issue on it because they could lose commanders. And bam, you got great odds once again on this Jaguars team. So to me, if you're hesitant on it, just wait it out. Me and Chad, we invested early and often on this team.

So we're kind of already in on the Jaguars. Exactly. So give me something else. Chad knows I like doing not sure things. there are no shirt things on football. But if I'm going to bet these favorites, I like the parlaying them together. So I'm looking for parlay breakers.

I feel like all the time, that's the kind of thing I'm looking for. It's like, what trap am I stepping into? What am I falling into? Again, the hype has been building around them, but I still think you're getting a good number on this team, and that's Miami. So they're plus $4.50 right now to win the division.

I get the bills left. Like the bills on paper, unbelievable team. But the biggest clearing weakness to this bill's team is their offensive line. And if I'm looking for a team in Miami that they've put the pieces around Tua, they have the offensive, they have the system, right? They're going to one of the most spread offenses in football. I have to take this number.

Like this should be closer to plus 300, rather than plus 450 plus 400 on fan dual. So to me, one of my best bets this year is just betting against what people consistently think is going to happen, which is the bill is to take a big step this year and be that number one seed. I just can't see it working that way. It felt like last year was a better team than it is this year. And again, I know they've made offensive season moves.

They were just so, they were put together so perfectly last year. I know, again, the money hasn't kicked you yet for Josh Allen. So they've went out and added more players to that defense. It's just going to be a really tough road in the AFC. And I just think their division got that much better with Miami. And again, I know England's going to take a step back, but they're still going to be improved with a second year quarterback than a rookie and Mac. So to me, it's just, it's too much love with the bills and not thinking about how

improved their division is. and in Miami itself where everything I've read about them defensively and offensively is they are so fast. People are going to be shocked about how fast this Miami team is just because they really haven't seen it yet. Only read about it. So to me, if I'm looking at a dark horse that is kind of gaining steam here, especially down in Florida, I mean, I can't get over the Tuanon fans like these guys, if I even mention Miami, they're just on me about it. But I do love them.

I just love this offensive scheme. And to me, I'm putting too much on a rookie head coach, but it's all there. Like, it's all there. Schedule-wise, match-up-wise, certain times they have games, rest of disparity against these other teams. It just lined up very well for this Miami team that I would have taken this all way down to plus $300. The fact that I'm getting plus $4.25, $450,000 at certain books, I'm going to take that

on Miami to win this division. And it's not just a hedge against this bill's team. It's simply, I think you're getting good value. And later on, I believe you will, but I'll come back. And if you want to get back on the bills, I think you will go to it, maybe a minus 120 and minus 150. Because again, the bills have a very tough schedule early on. Can we go back to the AFC South for a second? I would love to.

I'm thinking about three things. League passing leaders, most yards passing. I'm thinking about most yards receiving. So I'm thinking about Matt Ryan. I'm thinking about Michael Pittman. And I'm thinking about Trevor Lawrence. this brings it back to the question of do I believe in Frank Reich? Do I think that he has just been, you know, the victim of bad luck with his quarterbacks?

And with Matt Ryan, he's kind of getting a guy who can do most of what he needs a quarterback to do. Because I believe to Matt Ryan before. I remember last year we were like, Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley. Like, he's going to be amazing. We had him to lead the league in passing yards. It didn't go very well. now we're saying Matt Ryan could lead the league in passing yards with Frank Reich as his coach and Michael Pittman could be a guy.

No one's no one saying he's going to lead the league and passing yards. Have you actually heard someone say that about Matt Ryan? I don't know. It's a Jonathan Taylor offense. It's just Matt Ryan's just there to manage. You know what I mean? So that's a dead bet. I like we were going with Pittman, though, what you're about to say with Pittman.

So why are we saying that about Pittman? Because he's the only one, he's the one man show there. I think that's what Chris is looking at where it's like he is. We're talking about Chris Raybaum. by the way. Chris Raban, who talked to us about Michael Pittman to lead the league in receiving yards. And I got, I see what he's coming from where I look for that. I look for the island players. So a guy that's on a team and he's the only guy. To me, that's my question work is the Matt Ryan thing. It's like, again, I saw Philip Rivers. I've seen this cold steam put a

corpse back there and make it work somehow. And that's what they're hoping to do. I mean, Rivers, you can say all you want about him. Literally, he retired the following year. He got that team to the playoffs and they won. They beat the Ravens in the play. else with him. So I'm with you. It's Frank, Frank's done it before with these quarterbacks. He just, I don't know what's up with him. He just can't win this division. So that's my only reason of being out on them. It's like, Frank, for some reason, you just can't, you kept losing divisional games, all right? You can't beat the Jaguars in these stupid games. Can't beat the Tennessee Titans these last couple years. But man, do they kill this Texas team? So that's what's so funny.

Me and Chad, we love the Texans week one, where the simple fact that Frank starts slow. If you go through Frank's record as a cold side coach. I mean, almost every season, they're either starting one in three, one and two, oh, and four last year. It's been a problem from as a coach, and I'm interested to see if they actually can get out on a hot start because, again, Matt Ryan, that I think he's that much better than Carson Wentz. But we, again, that's something we talked about with Ross. It's like, these players, they're probably going to look at Matt Ryan way differently than they look at Wentz, right? It's like a confidence belief thing. So to me, a couple, a couple of people ask why we're not in on Tennessee or the Colts.

And it's just a value-based bet. It's just I don't see that big of a difference between them. Again, people hate the Houston. I'm telling Houston on paper is not as bad as people think. And the Jaguars. I just think both those teams are closer to plus 400 plus 500 to win this division than, you know, 25 to 1, which is what Houston is, and 8 to 1, which Jaguars are. All right.

We can get off the AFC South now. We spent too much time on a division that nobody cares about. You talk about the most controversial division right now. Are we talking about the AFC West? I'll do AFC West. I was going to talk about NFC East. That's the buzz this week is the Eagles Cowboys. The Eagles are all way down to even, I think it's plus one and 45 and the Cowboys are

plus 145 now. So they're finally mutually the same odds right now for this division after six months. Well, I'm glad you bring it up because I do have a thought here, which is Jalen Hertz to win MVP. Right now. You're going to make that bet. Jalen hurts to win MVP. Hold on. I'm looking it up on the Action Network. Jalen Hurts 25 to 1 to win MVP. Do you not like those odds right now? You think they're too short? You think they've been cut in half?

Like, what's your thinking here? I like it. You know how I view week one. I do think the Lions are going to upset this team, the all hype team of the Eagles, on the road as a big favorite. And I've been telling people, again, if you really want to do it, go ahead, bet on the Eagles. But I'm a big believer in value betting. And you've missed the value. The value is when we've been talking about them all offseason, about how good their D-line is, how good their offensive line. Now you see everyone's all in on this team now. So you wait. You wait in this spot. You hope the Lions can do what we think they can do. Pull the upset off week one at home against this Eagles team where, again, I just think this team, they're feeling good right now. And you're hoping they get humbled real quick by this Detroit

Lions team, because that's what this Eagles team is going to need. Everyone's just been blown smoke up their ass this whole, whole preseason. So to me, if you're going to get on the Eagles, I've already talked about just wait. I do think they're going to have a little bit of trouble coming out of the gate just because it took them a little while last year to find their rhythm, find their groove. And it's just different. Every year is different where if you're taking a team on the road that's more than three points of a favorite, they better be damn good. And that better be an established quarterback week one. This Eagles team has proven nothing to be getting that kind of respect other than the betting public's favoring this team. So to me, it's just wait. Because again, we're going to talk about

who we think, you know, teams are going to be in the Super Bowl and everything like that at the show. I'm all in on this Eagles team. I've been all in on them since the start. They're just one of the best teams how he's ever put together on paper, the GM of the Eagles. The only question is hurts. That is literally the only question. Can this kid read a defense? Because he cannot. He could not last year. You could not read a defense. His first instinct was read one, pull it down and run it, which I love for fantasy, that'll never win you playoff games. Teams can scheme against that. So that's my biggest question we're coming in this year of this Eagles team. love all the talent on this team.

Best all offensive line, top five, top three defensive line, just because of rotation. But hurts, man. I just, there's just so much hype around them. It's, it is honestly getting terrifying because he, again, he hasn't done enough for him to be deserving of the hype. They're giving him every opportunity to secure a massive, long-term deal. Like, they desperately want him. to succeed. They desperately want him to be the quarterback. It's clear if he doesn't win with

this team, it's really fascinating how they've positioned themselves because they'll probably be good enough to make the playoffs or maybe, you know, be a seven, eight win team, which won't net them the high draft pick they would need to get a quarterback. So there'll be an interesting spot next year because they'll have to play the free agent market or the trade market or something. So they got the Saints pick. That's what he's banking. He has the Saints pick as well. So he's hoping that Winston can lay an egg for the Saints team and then he gets a high pick.

But I'm honestly of the view that it's a two-year plan, how he's giving them this year and next year. And he'll just keep moving, moving either he'll draft a quarterback next year because he doesn't care. He took Hertz when Wentz was here. People act like that didn't happen. That was just two years ago. So to me, how he doesn't care. He gets it.

It's like, I've said this since the, I've been. doing this show. Like if I was a GM of a team, unless I had Aaron Rogers, which even his team did, I'd be drafted a quarterback every other year just because it doesn't matter. It's like, again, it's one of my favorite things ever, people shitting on Green Bay for drafting Jordan Love, how stupid of a draft pick. Have you ever looked at what Rogers was doing before they drafted him? He has been doing a bunch of nothing. And they drafted him. He went back-to-back MVP. So, smartest draft pick ever, I would argue, but what do I know? So that's, again, that's just to me, I'm giving Howie the credit right now,

but he's kind of set up this team like Chad just said that he owes nothing to Hertz. He's put Hertz in the best position he could. He gives him a year or two, and if Hertz doesn't produce, it's a business. We're on to the next one. So I love the way this Eagles team set up for this season.

And again, that's why I want to ask you, who's betting this Dallas team? Because I talked to a bookmaker a couple of days ago, there's still money coming in on Dallas to win this division. That's why it hasn't dropped. Again, the Eagles aren't favored when this division. They're literally the equal.

of the Dallas Cowboys right now. I would love to hear how you're going this Cowboys team heading because it feels like everyone's really down on them and people are going to be surprised. They're one of the seven I have making the playoffs this upcoming season. I have them making the playoffs. You do? As a wild card.

Right. Previewing Simon and I will go through our top seven in each conference. But I do think as far as expectations, look, it's the Cowboys, right? Ezekio Elliott as a top flight running back. They have Micah Parsons, who is a defensive player of the year candidate. Casual fans do not look at offensive line woes the same way that hardcore fans and betters look at offensive line woes. Jerry Jones makes a lot of noise.

He runs a train wreck of an organization, right? Yeah. And people who pay attention to the league recognize that. Forget about their valuation. Forget about the fact they're worth more than any professional franchise ever. Internally, they stink. So, like, they're on pace with the Lions since, like, in the past 30 years for having won a playoff game. Yeah.

They're going to get the money. That's why they're still favorites. And you're also looking at a division with the Giants and the Washington commanders. So the money's got to come in on somebody. and there was more Dak Prescott as a higher profile quarterback than Jalen Hurts. People bet on the quarterback

so you're going to bet on the Cowboys, you're going to bet on Dak Prescott. So that's why the money's coming in. But this is the Eagles division to lose to me. So that's what we're in agreement where I think my biggest of you is if you didn't get on their win total with us early,

their division odds early, or for them to, you know, went to NFC, I would just wait. Like you've already kind of missed the boat here. And that's, again, that's my best advice.

It's like, don't put your money into something just because you feel like you're missing out. It'll come back around. You'll be able to get value on this kind of dog. But man, the hype around this ego team, it's, I can't remember being this high. College football is back and Fanduil is putting you in the middle of the action. Because right now, all customers can get a no sweat bet for week two. That means free bets back if your bet doesn't win for everybody.

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call the Tennessee red line 1-800-889-9-9-7-8-9 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's your next best bet on your list? No shocker to people. Ravens, Super Bowl. Still at 20 to 1. Nothing's changed.

I just love this bet in the sense that they're my favorite high-profile team. People are still doubting them. A lot of question marks about Lamar right now because he hasn't signed the deal. I love that. I love that Lamar has to sign this deal yet. When you're trying to be great, it's going to be negativity. But you know, they hated Jesus.

And I'm not Jesus, so I don't really worry about it. I don't know if you guys remember the last time a Ravens quarterback went to a season without signing his deal. He won a Super Bowl, Joe Flacco. So to me, it's setting up one of those career years. I love how they're scheming this team out. Like people, if you look at who are their running backs were last season, I believe all five guys who played for them at one point are not on a roster or on a practice squad. Right?

and they brought in a new, a bunch of new faces. And Kenyon Drake's there now, too. They're supposed to get J.K. Dobbins back soon. I know the question marks about a riot receiver position, but to me, that's not that big of a deal where you're kind of a tight end base team and everything's thrown out of a scheme. Like half the time, Lamar is throwing to receivers, they're a schemed open just because of the linebackers have to step up,

to, you know, counteract what Lamar is doing in the run game. And there's always these little openings that Lamar can fit the ball into. So I've come in, realize that the Bengals are always going to be that team now with Joe Burrow. That's going to be talked about in this division. And again, we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other favorite bet for this division and not at 9 to 1 or 10 to 1 to win this division. But just strictly Super Bowl bet the two biggest ones I've done for like highest odds are the Ravens and the Chiefs. Like those are the two teams. I bet that chiefs are 10 to 1, Ravens 20 to 1.

But the Ravens thing, again, I know Lamar has done the playoffs. but you just can't, you can't get a defense like, do they have out of nowhere. Like the way they built their team is an incredible defense with an incredible running team. And like, I love that kind of style heading into, you know, January because it's hard to prep for that. Like, only certain teams can really defend that well. You need a certain type of linebacker or a certain type of speed to defend this kind of offense.

So I'm a little nervous about it just in the sense that everything I've heard about Lamar is he's improved. I haven't seen it. I haven't seen them play any preseason football. I've only seen a little bit and read a little bit from the beat writers about the Ravens. I'm putting a lot of faith

in this Ravens team in the sense that I know the talent they have on defense and I know what they have on offense. It should be 20 to 1. They should be closer to 14, 15 to 1 than they are at 20 to 1. But again, it's the Bengals effect. The Bengals, because they're in division,

they've made that number a little higher for you just because the Bengals are at 22 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. So that's that's kind of move. Vegas doesn't really have to do with either team, so they just put them right next to each other. I love this. I played this as well.

It's amazing to me that they've just been sitting at 20 to 1 for basically the entire off season, even though so many people have said that's weird, right? And if you're talking about value, which we talk about all the time, we tend to want to bet on teams at odds that are 20 to 1 or longer. And this has been a team that's getting a lot of attention. I'm just completely surprised that it hasn't dropped at all. I'm surprised the bangles haven't either. Just because we know after the Watson news came out,

I swore both these teams' odds would go up just because who's betting the Browns coming out of this division to win a Super Bowl? But again, I just think people forget this team, the Ravens, they were the one seed before Lamar got hurt. Yeah. That's what was happening last year. And also, also they had like, they barely had any defensive backs last year. Yeah.

And now they've won the one best, the best defensive backfields, according to pro football focus. of all the teams. I think they're top three right now rated. So again, it's, I try to build a time. You can't really think so much about last year. It's completely new year. And I get the doubt with them more in the playoffs and stuff.

But like just look at this team on paper, they should not be 20 to 1. For my next best bet, I'm offering two. Bears under five and a half wins. And by the way, the bears right now under five and a half wins. That is plus 125. at Fanduil and the Jets under five and a half wins plus 125. Wow.

The Bears are a dreadful team. There's no two ways about it. Alex Leatherwood is the savior of this team. A first round pick from 2021, who played the offensive line for the Raiders, was cut. They couldn't find a trade. He went on to waivers.

The Bears picked him up. That's who they're counting on to solidify their offensive line around their quarterback, that they have invested no protection in, I'm just not a believer. They're in complete rebuilding mode, a defensive coach with a, and Matt Iber Fluse,

who I have no opinion on, other than I want to build on Justin Fields as a generational talent, and I'm not getting that opportunity. And that's what it's going to be a fun year for Bears fans. As much is going to be miserable if your team's terrible, awful. It's awful when your team's bad. But when you have a young quarterback,

it makes a little less painful because you're just just excited. Like even in that preseason game, there are certain throws where it's like, oh my God, fields upside is so high. Again, I'll never understand why Zach Wilson went above him. It's so crazy if you think about these certain things. I came from BYU went higher than a kid that played Ohio State. I mean, I know that doesn't matter, but at the same time, it kind of does. Yeah, it's just the talents there with fields.

We'll see if they can scheme it up because last year they just did. nothing for him. Like, but they literally put them in the worst position every time. If this team just schemes it right for fields, I can see him putting up good numbers on a fun team and this Bears team. And the same thing with the Jets. Like the Jets have, unlike the Bears have a ton of town. The Bears have no talent. They've just drafted terribly. I think the Jets have drafted really well. I just have way too many questions at the coaching position. I have way too many questions of the quarterback position. So I'm on both those unders. And it's funny where I'm in on the Houston being over, Atlanta being over, and the lines being over.

But there's some bad teams I just can't get behind. And the Jets and the Bears are those two teams where I just, I think both them are not spending their tires this year, but it's just like they just weren't put in a position to do well, the team that's built around them. And the Jets one is just because they're a division. They're just in such a hard division, including the AFC. Like, you would really need Zach Wilson to take a major second year step to do anything. No Joe Flacco.

Like Joe Flacco might be fun for a game against his old team. you do not want that man playing this year. If you're a Jets fan, you want to know what you got it, Zach Wilson. You need that kid to play. So hopefully you can get back soon and we can really figure out what this Jets team's going to be. Jets under five and a half, largely because they're one of those teams that is so public right now since the draft. They had three first round draft picks, sauce Gardner, a corner, Garrett Wilson, at receiver, Jermaine Johnson on the defensive line.

And everyone assumed, all right, we're betting the over because they won the draft. That's when you buy the under, especially if we're going to plus money on the under of five and a half, plus 125. Just for the NFC North for my best bet in that division, everyone knows I love the lines. I feel like that. But it's actually the Vikings under and the Vikings they miss the playoffs. I think you're getting really good value. They're one of the most hyped up teams head into the season based off them getting a new head coach, which I agree. The guy can't be worse than Zimmer.

He still is Kirk Cousins. Like, you still get any Kirk Cousins to make big plays, not just put up junk time yards and touchdowns. So fading Kirk when the public is all over Kirk. And that's what they are this year. They're everyone's darling. I still think Green Bay is far and above the best team this division. So for looking at a divisional bet, Green Bay,

they're probably the best value now at minus 150. But my favorite bet is Vikings not to make a playoffs. I believe it's up to plus 175 plus 160 because they've just been getting bet up. So you like the vikes not to make the playoffs. playoffs better than the Vikes under the season win total? Yeah, just because you're getting a better plus number. Okay, which is probably the same thing. That's a smart way to look at it, right?

If they're not going to win nine games, then they're probably not going to make the playoffs in the NFC. And because, again, we're just assuming we're last year, I think the Eagles made it at nine and eight. But if they had to play starters, they probably wouldn't have made it at 10 and 7. So, like, that's one of those. That's what you're really, you're kind of banking on is teams need to play at the season.

But I want to take the risk of like betting the teams over and then just sitting all their starters and you get nothing out of it. All right. I want to recap the five best bets we've given so far. Tell me if I'm missing anything. Jags plus 800 to win the NFC South. It's actually down to 750. Ravens 20 to 1.

The Bears and the Jets under five and a half. The Vikings not to make the playoffs plus 165. Miami plus 450 to win the AFC East. AFC East. Did I miss any? Nope. All right.

And we could throw in Pittsburgh. I also think that is one of my better bets. Divisional winner, 9 to 1 or 10 to 1, depending on the book you're getting at it. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. We all talk too much. Sharp dudes can just see it.

Because sharp dudes don't care what you say anyway. They're just watching. You know what I mean? So what I think we need to do? do because people have asked for this even though as Matt Mitchell who is nothing if not stringent about the need for every Action Network podcast to only be about actionable information. Just go out there and try to have fun, you know. Having fun is the name of the game. People want to know what we think the seeding is going to be for the AFC and the NFC.

Simon, do the NFC. Which this is all actionable, but it's just not a good value now because like a team, I'm about to give out. They're at 25 to 1, to be the one seed in the middle of July. Now they're down to 10 to 1. So I'll start from the bottom for the NFC. My seventh guy, my last guy in. You know who it's going to be, Chad.

Detroit Lions, our squad. They finally make it in the playoffs. And I got them getting their first playoff win. So I'm got Lions at 7 at the 6 spot. I got the Cowboys. Five spot, I got the Rams. So that means I got the 49ers winning the division. I got them as a four seed.

Got the Bucks win their division. I got them the three seed, got Green Bay one in their division, and they got them as a two seed. And the one seed with the easiest schedule on football, the Philadelphia Eagles, that one seed. So they were 25 to 1 to have the best record in football, and now they're down to 10 to 1, to have the best record in football. It's interesting how similar some of our surprise picks are. We spend a lot of time together. That's true.

I have the Niners is the one seed. I'll go the other way. Go seven. Okay. You already ruin the surprise. Okay. Seven, I have the Vikings. Six, I have the Cowboys.

Five, I have the Rams. Four, the Saints. Wow. Three, I have the Packers. Two, I have the Eagles. One, I have the Niners. I've decided, you know I love Kyle Shanahan. I think he is one of the best play-calling schematic,

coach him-up coaches in the end. NFL. I think he's he's so close. I don't think Matt Ryan was a great quarterback. I blame Kyle Shanahan for the fourth quarter collapse. I don't think Jimmy G. was a great quarterback. I blame Kyle Shanahan for the fourth quarter collapse. Give him a great quarterback and he fixes his fourth quarter collapse tendencies. And I see this guy winning a Super Bowl. Yeah, I got Jimmy G coming in week seven, getting them to the playoffs, winning their division. That's why I got I'm sneaking in the four seed. Okay. I'm going to go in on the Niners. The Niners right now plus $750 to win the NFC on Fandau. We had a lot of similarities though. Yeah. I mean,

we're literally the lockstep on the Cowboys and the Rams. Yep. Interesting to that. You can think the books, though, they're not going to make it. You just think Brady's got too much going on? I think their offensive line is a mess. And the best way to pressure Brady is up the middle. I think with a new coach, I think for whatever reason, and this is, you know, what the fuck do I know? I'm literally going to put 10K on them after we get off their show to make the playoffs. I love you, Chad. He feels disengaged to me.

This is what Tom needs. He needs us a couple assholes in media doubting them. Because I do have my doubts too, but like I gave them the three seat just because it's Brady. It's like if there's anyone that can adjust to any little thing and you have him around with talent and Mike Evans and Leonard Fortnet and got Gronk coming back. eventually, I don't know. I just think they're going to figure it out where like, as we sit here right now, I'm with Chad, I'm so down on them.

Like, I wanted to bet them so bad against the Cowboys. Again, we're going to talk about week one, but it's like, oh, man, just bad, jujura. I've never seen Tom so despondent in one of those things where he's like, I'm 45. I got a lot of shit going on my life. And it's like, holy shit, this guy is human. So that was definitely weird seeing him be more human than normal. All right.

Let's go now to the American Football Conference. go from the bottom. You want me to go? Yep. All right. So people think I hate them. I disrespect them constantly. People forget.

We were a huge Bangle fans last year. We gave them about 10 to 1 to win their division. Still love the Bengals. Just don't love the value they're going at. So I have the Bengals of the 7th seat. I'm getting in 9 and 8. Again, I think they're going under their wind total. I think they do sneak in because Joe Burrow is that good.

Like they're going to have so much bullshit this year. Because of Joe, I still think they somehow get in because he's that good of a quarterback. So in the seventh seat, I got Joe and the Bengals. Sixth. I got the chargers. Five, I got the Bills. Four, Jaguars. Three, Miami.

Two, Ravens. And number one, the Kansas City Chiefs, man. Nothing changes from me. I just love the Chiefs this year. There's far and above to me the best team. So interesting. So interesting. We have a lot of the same teams, but different order.

So I basically have four new teams making them. AFC playoffs. The four new teams are Chargers, Jaguars, Miami and Ravens. I have the Chargers at seven. I have the Bengals at six. So you and I are flipping. You had the Bengals at seven, the Chargers at six. I have the Chiefs at five. Wow. Okay. Yeah. Then I have the Jags at four. The Broncos at three. The Ravens at two. The bill's at one. Wow. So you got the bills playing out as the one seat.

I mean, that makes sense. It doesn't mean I think they're going to win the conference or the Super Bowl. You want to do that too? I do think that the bills will end up with the best record and, and, you know, that'll play to form. I kept my surprises for later, the Jags, the Broncos, that kind of thing. Give me your AFC and NFC. Green Bay playing the Buccaneers in the NFC championship game with the Bucks winning. Then I have the Chiefs over the Jaguars and the AFC championship game.

So I have Chiefs bucks, but the Chiefs winning it all. So a rematch, but it's going to be flipped. It's going to be a revenge tour for the Chiefs. I like the Eagles and the Niners. I like the Niners to win. I like the Ravens and the Bills. I like the Ravens to win. And I want the Ravens to win the Super Bowl.

That would be another rematch. Last time they played, it was Capernick Flacco, the lights going on. I was at that game. That was an amazing weekend. I barely remembered it. Oh, that was an amazing Super Bowl, too. I mean, the 49 years really came all the way back. So good.

So this is interesting. I like the way this ended. Isn't it fun? The chiefs are, we didn't talk about the Chiefs. We either are going to look like geniuses or huge assholes in six months. Well, look, that was always my theory. When I was running ESP in the magazine,

like you had to make Super Bowl picks. Yeah. And my theory was always, just do something stupid. Because in six months, you're either going to look like a genius or no one's going to remember. But like, why choose the same two teams all the time, you know?

I literally just ran mine through a simulation. It was just like, just give me the odds of the best chance of whatever's going to happen. And it was no shocker. Like Brady versus Aaron Rogers, no one will be shocked if that's an NFC championship game. I do think the Chiefs, though, that would be pretty wild if it was Chiefs first Jaguars. Like if Trevor Lawrence can make it year two into the AFC championship game, I mean, their hype will be like Joe Burroughs next year. It would just be out of this world, the Jaguars team.

Yep, I like it. I like it. Go Jags. Last year we were in Atlanta Falcons podcast. This year, we're a Jacksonville Jaguars podcast. Yeah, we've upgraded to the Lions and the Jaguars. We continue to love teams from conferences, nobody, from divisions nobody cares about in the AFC and NFC South. I think we've wrapped it up for Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

Download us from Apple Podcast, Spotify, whatever you get your podcast. rate, review, subscribe, say whatever you want, leave us five stars. Feedback is a gift. Next time we talk, folks, we're going down the lineup. We're going down every single game. We're going to start picking out our favorite five.

Until next time, love you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter Streeter Seidel

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