The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Conference Championships

Episode Date: January 23, 2025

In this extra prickly episode of the podcast, producer Matt Mitchell shouts at Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter about his Buffalo Bills and their date with destiny. Later on, Chad and Simon break down the AFC and NFC Championship games, with two tickets to the Super Bowl (and Mitchell's precarious sanity) hanging in the balance. We also get their takes on hedging, their leans on the totals, and much more. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest

moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsClace on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Superhuman on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my time of John home studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my confidre, my BFF professional, better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing?

brother, I'm so glad we're starting the show because from the time we got on 15 minutes ago until literally the second we went live, Matt Mitchell did not shut the fuck up. Loved it. Like 15 straight minutes of talking. It was like listening to my mother-in-law on Hyperspeed who can cover 1,000 different topics in the span of 15 minutes without anyone even responding, making eye contact, looking up,

asking a question. I want to have Matt Mitchell come on the show today to talk about the bills. I know he's made a massive bet on the bills. I'm a little nervous about it because I know he likes to keep the shows tight. And that might add 45 fucking minutes to the show. So we'll have to see how we're feeling

when we get to the Chiefs Bill's game to see we want to add Matt Mitchell and his nonsense. on the show today. Today is our conference championship weekend best bets episode. As we did last week, we will not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games. We are adding any other bets we like as well. Hopefully going to give folks more to look for, root four, think about this weekend.

We will also be including the best options for our foxhole as well as our Tommy John, big balls, bet of the week. And we will of course discuss Simon's biggest bets, play Scoot Rulette, all that jazz, plus today, I do want to have a conversation about two very important topics. One, hedging. I mentioned this on Tuesday. Simon and I both gave out Super Bowl matchup bets on this very show before the season began. We each have one AFC team and one NFC team from those bets still alive.

So we got a shot that may be true for a lot of you. So how do we hedge if we want to? Do you want to cash out? I got that question on Twitter. Also, I want to talk about Super Bowl futures. There's four teams left. If you choose to get some value before the big game, now is the last chance. As we were last Sunday, we will be on Sunday night after the end of the second game.

This is the Bills Chiefs this weekend. We will come on live after that. First look at Super Bowl review of what happened during the day. Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving. decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss Colin Cowherd likes to say there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now.

New Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5, sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, players, players, and more, whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. All right, as always, on Thursdays. We'd like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation, fewer games, but still lots of opinions. we are very influential lines have already moved based on our conversations.

Let's get some opinions from the wise guys. Simon, let's do. Sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Yeah, interesting weeks.

Shocked. I thought it was going to be everyone on our side, to be honest with you, Chad. It felt like we're going up against two very public dogs. But there is some really smart money on the other. side and we can start the commanders guys I respect taking a position on that side and I think it really does come down to Hertz's health they think they are getting a good number here because Hertz is not going to do what he can normally do and I still think it's being overrated it's like they don't rely on Hertz this is not a team built around Hertz this is the team built rely on the running game so

definitely a lot of arguments right now about that with I'm being told that I'm overvaluing hurts and not understanding his injury and they think they're getting a great number and the books backed that up most bookmakers i've talked to it's heavy heavy heavy like there was really heavy early money on the eagles now it's basically all washington like they're all taking the six it's not even close on the money line it's all money is coming in on the money line for this washington team so yeah i can't dive to that because that honestly makes me feel even better like the books needing a home favorite like even when i'm talking to the bookmakers are laughing about it because again, Chiefs would make basically the same exact spot as the Eagles.

It's all bills money. All the money coming in right now is bills. All the teasers are on the bills. So yeah, if you're like me and you talk to bookmakers and you go to a lot of different books, they're very happy right now in their position to be in, right? They are in the position of they need two home favorites to cover and win. And on the futures market, the best outcome for them is the chiefs. The chiefs have never, I mean, Evan could probably test this.

I don't think they ever got above plus 700 for the entire season. So this is a team that basically never got really high odds. On the flip side, if the commanders make it to the Super Bowl, they'll be crushed. Like that's a position that, you know, Joe Schmoe down the street that bet them at 100 to 1 or 150 to 1 can be able to hedge. And professionals will be able to hedge. So it is interesting talking to the perspective of the bookmakers and the perspective of the professionals that, you know, I get why they love the bills. I get why they love commanders. It's a coin flip type of game.

I do think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So yeah, I'm looking forward to diving into these games even more, Chad, because it does seem like, you know, coming into it, I was a little nervous in our positions. You know, me and Chad don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites, not chalk favorites in this spot. We are definitely taking, shockingly, the underdog kind of favorites in this spot of everyone's backing the dogs on the road. And we are actually the ones going off trail here and taking their home favorites,

which is pretty shocking position to be in. All right. I love it. That is a great tee out for what we're going to talk about because it's Washington at Philadelphia. The number of Bet365 is minus six. The total is 47.5. I have seen this at six and a half in some spots. But guess what?

Right off the bat. Our Big Balls, Bed of the Week. Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great game. Start with Great. underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest. Man, number of six, like I said, tended to six and a half already there in some spots. I do want to give you one funny story

as a Philly native. You can appreciate this. So my younger son, my 18 year old, has discovered it's always sunny. And he's been watching it constantly lately. And if I'm in the same room with him at the same time, and like he's just watching it, I end up sitting down and watching a few episodes. And like, he's in the beginning. He's only in season two, right? So it's going back 18, 19 years. And the episode that came on yesterday that I watched with him, the gang gets invincible. I don't know if you remember this episode. Of course. But this is the episode where Mac and Dennis and D try out for the Eagles because it's right when the movie Invincible came out

and everybody in Philly, every fucking Philly scumbag decided they're Vince Papali and they can go try out for the Eagles and they're going to make the Eagles. Steve? Rise moving, fans. Come on. Let's get on the bus. What the hell are you talking about? The bus that takes you to the field.

Wait, I thought we were going to be playing on the link. You think you dips shit's going to play on the same field that champions play on? Where are we going? We go. We're going to a shitty high school in Bucks County. Get your ass on the bus. Sprint to the bus. Sprint to the bus.

So on the show, they have a tryout that is inspired by Vince Pauly making it. And they say, we got to do it because the new kids on the block movie about the guy making the team. You know, because Mark Wahlberg are running for it. And so I'm watching it. And in the middle of it, I don't say anything about it. In the middle of it, my kid says to me, didn't you. like do something about some dude who tried out for the Eagles. I'm like, yeah, I wrote the book, Invincible. It's on a shelf 10 feet from where you're sitting right now. I wrote it when you were

just born so we could put food on the fucking table. I cannot believe you can't even remember how many times we've talked about this book. And you cannot remember that I wrote the book, invincible. No respect in my house, Simon. I love that you watch an episode. Great episode of Cameo by Donovan McNabb. You got Frank Reynolds getting stuck in a

porter in a bathroom, I should say. Oh my God, on the green man. And by the way, it wasn't a Donovan McNab cameo. It was a cameo. I know. That's the joke.

I know. Because it's so good. It's such a good show. Like, I haven't watched it in a while because I feel like I was just caught up. man, it is so funny. It makes me love Philly.

You know how much I love Philly. It makes me love Philly even more. I'm the trash man. Just throw me in the trash. And I love the Eagles even more. This is our big balls. I kind of feel like it might need to be our foxhole, too. We might need to double down here the same way we did with the chiefs on Simon says

and exact, because if all this money is starting to come in the commanders, it really does feel like we're starting to be alone here. Damn it, God damn it. God damn it. You get into this time of year, and it's really is opinion heavy, and guys try to just throw the numbers out, which I would love to make fun of them and everything like that, but I'd do that too.

Like that bill's spot last week, Chad was totally right in his thinking of the bills were not the better team, that, you know, Ravens team were better on paper in almost every metric, but I kept saying you had to throw the numbers out. And this is the type of game where there's plenty of, guys making their statement taking their position on this Washington team and has the same view of it. They know that this is not as good of a team as the Eagles on paper. They know that this is, you know, I don't want to say a fluke, but it is a fluke. Come on, let's be real people. This is the

six seed. We know how rare this is. I think Evan had a amazing seat with a rookie quarterback. Right. Evan had an amazing piece about this, how it's like this just never happens. And obviously as an Eagles fan, it doesn't get much better. My team is literally a game away from beating a rookie quarterback 60 at home to make the Super Bowl. You literally can't have an easier position. The Chiefs got to play the freaking bills and vice versa. Like that's usually what you're getting in conference championship games. You don't usually play a rookie quarterback with a team that is just happy to be there, right?

This insane run that they've been on. And yeah, it's been interesting in breaking down the game. And especially this week, all I'm really doing is watching film, honestly. Like that's what's so fun when there's just two games left. You can really dive into both teams. And obviously, if you listen to show a year, I mean, me and Chad have talked at analyzing about how much we love Daniels in this Washington team. And we bet them all season.

We love them. I mean, I've talked so much about how impressed I was with him. And, you know, this is a game, though. You have to really go back to what me and Chad talked about. There were two previous games against the books and the lines and why they did win those games. Yes, Daniels played incredible. It was all about turnovers, right? That, to me, at the end of the day, that was the key to those games.

And we've seen this playoffs really dictated by that. Now, that's not shocking anybody, right? That's how it is usually. But you've seen teams play these incredibly conservative, boring offenses. Three out of the four teams have done that style, this playoffs, and have gone to this position. Now, you know, Daniels just doesn't play that way, right? He's a high risk, high variance type of player. He's willing to push the ball downfield in those 50-50 balls.

He's willing to- He makes a lot of bad throws. He's a rookie. Right. And he's incredibly accurate. I don't mean to cut you off, but like he's incredibly accurate, but he makes a lot of downfield throws that if you're watching it on television, the camera pans, and these are millimeters away from picks.

And when I found by watching this film, especially going back to the earlier games, is how cool he is in the pocket. And we talked about that. We were like, eventually he's going to take a hit, and he won't be so calm, cool in the pocket like he was.

And he did. It might have been your guy's Bears game, where he basically got rocked. I don't know if his ribs got broken or bruised, but you saw there was a three, four game period there where it was different. Like you could see that he, after that hit, it was different. And now he's back to what he was, though. Once he healed it up and got that confidence back,

he's back to what he was in week three, four, like that really confidence in the pocket. Just, I can't get over how above his age he does play. I know a lot of people have talked about this week where it's like, you know, he might be a rookie on paper, but he has like it feels like a year five. veteran mentality. He's just so smart, makes the right decisions when he needs to. And yeah, when you break it down, he'll be the X factor in this matchup. But this really, like me and

chat, this number really should be seven, seven and a half. Like the fact that, you know, golf, who's never done anything in the playoffs, honestly, like this is a guy with the lines that, you know, he has choked with them. And you could say, well, he got to the Super with the Rams. I mean, come on. Let's be serious here. It's, it's kind of interesting where the, the books got that number all up to nine and a half. And now against the Eagles team that to me is better on paper. They're healthy defensively. They can have all their guys all offensively. They're only a six point favorite against this Washington team. So me and I were talking about how this is an inflated line for this Washington team that this has moved too much. That's what we're talking about

because I had a lot of people ask about that why we think this is peak value for Washington. Just breaking it down very simple. You can see how much respect the books giving them and vice versa. they're in a happy position to be because right now like I said they need the eagles all this money is pouring in on Washington and um you know me and chat honestly chat I thought this would be six and a half seven when we came on today's show so you know the fact that at night like I've been checking it there is you see the resistance from professional betters like a couple books do hit six and a half quickly bump down to six so it's clear that there is some really smart money keeping this number down and I think it does come back to the Hertz injury to me.

Like, that's why I get why the professionals are saying that, because on one side you have a quarterback that is playing at a high level, and he is fully healthy on the flip side. You have a quarterback that the professionals and public have questions about, and he's got a bad knee. So that, to me, makes sense about the resistance on this number. But like I just said, to me, that's another reason for me and you, I feel like we're getting great value on this line,

where it's just too much hype, too much love for a Washington team that has a couple little bit of a fluky wins here now. they're being praised as one of the best teams in the NFL. Also going outside. It's just a different game for everybody when you're playing outside. And I'm not saying the commanders

can't handle weather. They're not to our team. But when you're playing indoors and you go for it on fourth downs and you're going against a team that is playing basically second and third stringers across the board defensively

and you force some turnovers early in the game, you're just playing from a different point of view, a different perspective. This Philadelphia team, to me, I thought you nailed it. It's not really about Jalen Hertz. It's about the offensive line and the defensive line. And again, we talked about this on Tuesday. Sam Cosme not playing is kind of a big deal

because the strength of this Philly defense is what they can do within the interior of the defensive line. Jalen Carter is amazing. He is like he's Aaron Donaldesque this year in his ability to control a game and impact a game as an interior defensive lineman. So I like him coming up the guy against Jaden Daniels is going to be really, really daunting, especially in this kind of scenario. You got to like, you can't you can't take that factor away. And we also talked about the Eagles have not played their game yet. Like they have not played a sound perfect game like we were used to when they were rolling midseason. On the flip side, Washington's coming off, in my opinion, their best game of the season. Like going back and watching that game, every little thing they did kind of broke their way. The only really dumb mistake they made was that weird Marriota pitching trying to pitch the ball back.

And this is why I do give respect to Dan Quinn. He went to Kingsbury. Whoever he went and talked to him and he just said, we're not. taking the ball out of our best players hand and losing this game again. Like from now on a fourth down, no more bullshit dumb gimmick plays. We're going to give the ball to Daniels only because that was the type of play where you're just like, you're overthinking at Washington. What are you doing in this type of big moment?

And, you know, the rest of that game, so sound. And, you know, like you just said, this Eagles game is outdoors. I have moved to the over. Originally, I liked the under in this matchup. I have flipped to the over. And just because the number has moved too much. I basically have this total of 48 and a half. So it's only a point difference, right?

The total right now is 47 and a half. Still showing Valley to the Yover. And it really is all about what we just talk about the weather. Now, if you live in the Northeast or just America in general, we're in a deep freeze right now. It's absolutely awful outside. It's like 10 degrees in most places. It's going to warm up by this weekend.

I don't know if you saw it, Chad. It's supposed to be in the mid-40s come Sunday. Okay, so no snow, no rain, mid-40s. Like you just said, both these teams are from the same area. They're used to being out in the cold. I don't think it's going to affect the offenses like it did this past week with the Eagles. I don't think we'll see as many drops from the Eagles. And same from this Washington team.

I think they'll be fine playing these elements. But like you just said, the difference will be Washington just played in Florida and then an indoor game against Detroit. So this will be the first time they are out in the cold in the elements in the playoffs. And, you know, we... No, go ahead. Sorry. No, go ahead.

The one thing that worries me is that this Eagles' team is incredibly reliant on big plays, specifically big plays from Sequin. We saw it in the Rams game, two huge touchdown runs. I was at that Eagles Commander's game in November where they were down most of the game and the only reason they won that game is because there were two long Sequan touchdown runs. That's kind of been the theme of the year. We talked about his rushing prop on Tuesday, it was 127 and a half. By the time we were off the show and we talked about this on air, it was already at 129. And a half.

One other sports book, very public sports book, high profile sportsbook, yesterday announced that Sequin's rushing total at 130 is the highest rushing total they've ever had for a prop. Do we worry that this team is too reliant on big plays? we think big plays are predictive and are they something that you can count on or are they totally random and that skews our perception of the Eagles? Yeah, I would say if you have the number one offensive line on football, an all pro and A.J. Brown than an all pro and Saquan, probably going to get big plays. I mean, that's just the honest truth. So I give you a coming from, Yeah, ideally do I want the Eagles to drive the field and then all their red zone trips or touchdowns?

That'd be great. But I mean, people keep pointing the fact that, oh, the Eagles haven't been great in the red zone. Even last week, right, they struggled in the red zone. No, I don't really mind that. I don't worry about that stuff too much. Like big plays can be inconsistent if it's all Y receiver. That, to me, it'd be scared, right? If it was the Tyree Kill type of deal where it's like, well, if we don't have Tyree Kill downfield,

then our offense kind of stalls, right? We rely on those big plays to move the ball downfield. The Eagles aren't that. I mean, the reason they have those big plays numbers is because they wear teams out. And eventually, like we talked about, Seyquan gets these teams in the fourth quarter. And that's when he breaks out for those long runs. So, you know, the stats we gave out on Tuesday about this Washington run defense and how bad they are in the second level, that just adds more fuel to the fire of this team going to be hitting big plays.

I mean, it lines up for this Eagles team. So I told you, my biggest worry here is going to be. going to be same thing we had when I was betting Washington against the Lions. It's the fourth down regression. Like it's, we're at, we're at our historical numbers at this point with the fourth down with this Washington

team. And it did come to bite us. Like even that Bucks game, right, they had a couple failed fourth downs. And that Lions game, we just talked with the Marriota play, there are opportunities for this Eagles team to get stops. And, you know, Dan Quinn,

he's getting tons of praise right now, well deserved. If he goes for it on his own 35 on fourth down, right? say they're down seven in the second quarter and he goes for it there the eagle stop them now they're up 14 will he look like an idiot or will just be like no this is who this guy's been all season it's just been working so that's that's going to be interesting part here in this game to me it's going to be another game where um if daniels hits these fourth downs yeah they can stay in this game easily i mean we all know the the track record of you know divisional opponents keeping games close in the spot but

when you really dive into the numbers this this would really be an embarrassing loss for the eagles like to all honestly, you were getting a rookie quarterback on a team that is basically to rebuild season. The fact that come into your home stadium and win this playoff game would be shocking. Just because across the line, like we just talked about, the D line matches up incredibly against this O line of Washington. Ego's offensive line, even more so. I mean, second level, all of it lines up really well.

We give tons of credit, though, to Washington. Bobby Wagner, he was left for dead. This man has come in and made a huge difference to this team. Zach Ertz, another guy, left for dead, has come and made, like, veteran presence on this Washington team has been huge. It made these huge difference. So they do have guys who've played in these big games, these big moments. But this is an Eagles team that basically was in a Super Bowl, you know, a year and a half ago. So it's like, we've seen it time and time again in sports.

Teams usually have to go through growing pains. And you expect Washington, someday they'll get to this level, someday they will make a Super Bowl. It would be shocking for them to get there this early. Like, they haven't gone through the pain that almost all teams need to go through to get to. to that next level. Even the all god we talk about Patrick Mahomes, he needed to lose to Brady at home in that AFC championship game. Then he needed to lose the Super Bowl. I mean, he did win obviously against 49ers, but then he needed to lose against Brady in the Super Bowl eventually. Like these great quarterbacks all go through it. We think Jane Danes will eventually be one of these

greats, but he has not gone through any pain yet, right? It's all been good. That's why you watch TV. Everyone's just loving this team, hype him up, making him a top five quarterback in this league. I mean, I still can't go over, Chad. There's 16 to one next year. in Super Bowl futures, this commander's team. So it's just, it's all peeking right now. They're the darling of the NFL. They beat the one seat, a team that people thought were unbeatable.

And on the flip side, this Eagles team, people have not believed them all the way. I mean, you can go through it. People picked the Rams to upset them just last week. Like that was a big bet by a lot of people. And, you know, when you really got, dive into, the Eagles probably should have won against Green Bay by double digits.

Should it be last week by double digits, right? They just didn't think that things break their way. So it's a unique opportunity to have a team like the Eagles be underrated, even though they've been one of the top three, top four best teams in football all season. So it is a unique position like me and Chad talked about. This is, it feels too easy. That's my fear here, Chad, where it's like right now I'm able to get, you know, in a teaser, I can get them down just to win this game.

And I'm just shocked this has stayed under seven. And I do think it all comes back through the Hertz injury and the public and professional money coming in so heavy on this commander's team where I'm shocked. to see how much money is poured in on this team. Like I really did think by the time we do the show it would be more balanced. It's still heavy towards commanders. Jake Elliott, do your fucking job.

Need the extra points. This line is six, right? We felt the last week. It pushed on six because Jake Elliott was missing extra points. Jake Elliott, do your job. That's all we're asking. Simon.

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Because comfort is king. It's my wolf. Howl. Right now you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save Tommy John, save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. I went off script on Matt's read there.

I hope he's okay with it. What did you think of my howl? I don't know what you're going for there. That was definitely a wolf howl though. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some

retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama,

the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Buffalo, Kansas City,

Kansas City minus one and a half. The total's 47 and a half. This was Simon says. The chiefs on the money line is our exec decision. It's taken a minute to get some traction. It's moving to two in some spots. You know, we'll have Matt Mitchell come on if he can promise to, you know, keep it tight. We're trying to keep the podcast less than four hours today.

Because he came on before the show. I think this is why he's a little hot today. because he said he bet an inordinate amount of money, an obscene amount of money on the Buffalo Bills. We obviously are both on the Chiefs here. I would like Matt Mitchell to come on as the resident Bill's obsessive. He's an excellent better.

He's not just a mediocre podcast producer and a Bill's freak. He's an excellent better. So Matt, you want to explain yourself why you're going against the hosts of the show? Hi, Chad. It's nice to be on. I hope you're well.

I appreciate all the listeners and the outpouring of support following your incoherent and asinine breakdown of your chief's love last episode. I've realized that since the infamous 13 seconds game three years ago,

I have done a very good job of locking my heart away and developing a thick candy shell so that I'm not as absolute, absolutely crushed by a loss in the playoffs as I was after that game so that the Bengals lost in the playoffs met very little. Also, they just lost regular style, which is what I always ask of them, even last week. I felt more relief than joy in a victory that was very hard fought and one that I was consumed with dread leading up to it. And I'm realizing,

and Chad, that I'm not able to hit those, those, the high highs, the true mania of an incredible victory because I've been, I've been holding back and shielding myself. And the time has finally come. I used to, to dance like everyone's watching and love like I'll always get hurt. But now I'm ready. I'm ready to get hurt. And I'm going to go into this game filled with optimism and excitement, a ruthlessness that the bills will leave Kansas City victorious. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is. And I'm

disgusted with myself that I'd be saying this out loud to so many people. But I'm in. I'm fucking all in. I've heard enough. It's time for men of action to do just that. So go bills. That is a end of a rom-com worthy soliloquy about your love and your willingness to expose yourself and be vulnerable this weekend. I believe it was Bob Scucci, who once said, when all hope is gone, all that's left is relief. It might be something you were feeling at some point. And I'm glad that you are getting back to finding euphoria and joy as a sports fan. My Kansas City Chiefs take, which I know what you're referring to, and listeners know what you're referring to, which you went after me for, when I couldn't defend myself, you dropped it into the podcast on Tuesday,

is I'm rooting for history. I'm not saying I'm rooting for the thing that's never happened, which is to beat the Buffalo Bills, because the Buffalo Bills get beaten by everybody. My point was, I want to see the three-peat. That's what I'm rooting for, Matt Mitchell. I'm rooting for historical dominance of dynastic proportions. The fucking Buffalo Bills have been playing fucking football for longer than there's been a Super Bowl, and they've had not won a Super Bowl. That is pretty goddamn historic. All you got to say, Chad, all you got to do is go into that fucking microphone and say,

you know what, I'm rooting for the team that never loses to not lose. I'm rooting for the team with the better coach. I'm rooting for the best quarterback to beat the second best quarterback. I'm rooting for the team that is favored to win the game at home. I'm rooting for the team. that has the opportunity to win three straight Super Bowls, I'm rooting for the team that has a quarterback that has the opportunity to set standards that have never before been seen in the history of the NFL,

which has been around longer than the Buffalo fucking bills. So that's what I'm rooting for. See, I have the bigger picture. I think much bigger than you do, Matt. I'm not thinking myopically. I'm not thinking, oh, how does this all impact the tiny, cute, little Paris of Western New York franchise Buffalo Bills. I'm thinking, how does this impact all of fandom? How does this impact sports history? Where does this put Patrick Mahomes in the

legendary status of the greatest athletes and achievers who have ever lived? I'm not thinking, oh, does the team that always wins, are they going to win? That's not how I'm thinking about it. Chad, okay, listeners, I had you do a visualization exercise on Sunday. I want you to do a another one. Again, unless you're driving, keep your eyes open. Unless you're driving, close your eyes. I want you to picture Chad Millman walking into a beautiful glittering casino. He's walking through the casino. He's going to the high roller room. He's walking through it. He's saying, no, no, you know what? I need to go to the lowest limits. I want to see the biggest losers. I want to join them. He goes over to the biggest loser's shoe, a blackjack, and he sits down and they say, how much, how much do you want?

And he says, oh, no chips for me. I'm here rooting for the dealer. And he has a little pennant that says, go casino. That's the argument you are making. Go house money. Matt and I have been at each other all morning because I asked a simple question in one of our Slack channels. Simon, we're on the chiefs. Go chiefs.

We love the chiefs. Why am I worried about the chiefs? If we still have a producer, you got to cut that last 30 minutes. unbelievable back and forth by Chad and Matt Mitchell. Holy shit. Yeah. My only question of Matt Mitchell is if you know what you're doing here, you're supposed to bet the chiefs so you can actually win money when your team loses rather than you lose money

and you are depressed for a year when your team loses. And nobody in your beautiful Milwaukee neighborhood gets ice cream. Jesus. Right. Imagine one guy ruined for the fucking casino and another guy with the most cowardly fucking approach in history. That's why we have this drop, which I'll play right now. Simon Hunter, professional coward. I would never hedge emotionally or otherwise, but I wish you the best of luck. No, I'm smart. I actually bet on my favorite team in August, unlike Matt Mitchell here,

who bets on his favorite team in Leach a lot. Now this is great. Yeah, I don't sleep. I don't need, I do nothing but think of you, Kansas City Chiefs. I just can't, I keep looking for ways to fade this chief's team, chat. And we're here. We can't do it. There's no reason not to bet this number. It's low. It's a great matcher for them. And we talk about this Bill's team.

It's been an incredible season. This is a team that had 30 million in dead cap for Stefan Diggs. They had 70 million in dead cap overall on this roster this season. People, that's fucking insane. They're literally paying 70 million to guys who are on this roster. And they're in the finals, the AFC finals. It's, I can't believe it. So this is a team that's overachieved all because they have the mutant that is Josh

out and the greatest quarterbacks to play this game can you get over the hump chad that's what everyone's betting on the the public has the same exact view as matt mitchell like they're coming in heavy on this bill's team not because they're sick of the chiefs but they think this is the destiny this is the year of josh allen and they're betting them hard i mean even the action app i'm looking at right now 70% of the bets same percent of the money right now are on the buffalo bills on the road in kansas city this is the team that yeah was perfect at home but they struggle on the road this season and the the struggle on the road was their defense it wasn't once again wasn't josh allen was the defense so um yeah it's it's interesting that people are so confidently

betting a bad number on the spills team where it's like this should be two and a half three they're happy to line up and take a bad number at one and a half or two so um yeah like i said bookmakers are happy i'm extremely happy it's a rare position to be in chat we're based on a chief's team that the public is doubting and it's the exact scenario that happened last year the The chiefs, people forget, were a five or four point dog at the Ravens last year. They got up to five and a half before kickoff, five and a half dog. No one was betting the chiefs. That line was running up.

Even the action app, I believe it was less than 20% of the bets, 20% of the money were on the chiefs in that exact spot. They rolled that Ravens team. And that's literally what this exact scenario is playing out right here. People are doubting, not believing the chief's team, betting the other side. And yeah, you can wave your hands and try to act like no one believes in us if you're the bills. People do. That's just not true. You guys are the darling favorite right now of the league, just like the commander.

So I love our position that we're in. The Chiefs, to me, are the better team across the board in every position, except the strongest part of this Bill's team, obviously, is Josh Allen on that offensive line. And that to me is our only fear here, Chad. If the Chiefs can't stop the run, we're done here because the bills have evolved. They're a different team now. They play smart. They don't turn over. If we can get a lead with this Chief's team, have to make Josh Allen drop back a ton and throw the ball a lot.

That to me is how the chiefs can come out on top in this one because we know the weakness of this Bill's team. They don't have receivers. Like they got rid of their two top dogs and he's just throwing a nameless guy. I mean, Amari Cooper, who they traded for, he's been non-existent since they got him. Like it's just, it's not great. And, you know, like I said, incredible run by this, this Pills team, but they've run into a juggernaut that's not going to lose this game. Like the Ravens kind of lost that game last week. Let's, let's be honest here.

The Ravens beat themselves. I'd be shocked if the chiefs beat themselves in this matchup at home. And we've seen the stats from Evan. When it's cold, below 40 degrees in Arrowhead in the playoffs, this is when you want to back Mahomes. He just lives up to these moments, the exact spot. So, yeah, I really can't believe we're only getting minus one and a half with the chiefs at home in this spot.

And no one's betting them. It really is shocking right now looking at that metric and seeing that we are on the team that no one believes in and they're a home favorite. So, yeah, obviously you can tell you, I'm feeling pretty confident about this chiefs. God. There is a better, according to Patrick Everson, who placed a $1.3 million bet on the Chiefs to win the game. Just on the money line, I'll reiterate, Patrick Mahomes, in November, December, January, when it's 40 degrees or less, 23 and 2 straight up, he's won 20 in a row. His last loss was to times.

Brady in 2019. The only fear here is Josh Allen. And, you know, he's so good at avoiding sacks. And the chief's pressure, as much as George Karloftus has been amazing on the edge recently, their pressure is Chris Jones on the inside unless he is moving himself to the edges. But when Josh Allen gets flushed, he is very hard to sack, like so difficult. to put into plays behind the sticks, right? That to me is like the biggest fear is every time he rolls out, I get a little nervous when I'm betting against Josh Allen. But I think to your point,

teams are not the same when they play the Chiefs in the playoffs that they are throughout the year. Because they're not thinking, oh, I have many, many series in which to make up for any mistakes every series is so critical you get tighter when you think you can't make a mistake and everyone believes they cannot make a mistake against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs he's that magical he's that awesome I think that has a real impact in these games that just doesn't get accounted for in the spread I don't know if you feel the same way I do and I also think that's another reason

why I love the under here where it's like both these teams are going to play super slow and and just eat the clock up, because they have the same view we have, keep the offense off the field. Like that's how you're going to win this game, right? Not let the other team get into a rhythm. So coming into it, I think both game plans are going to be run heavy.

And, you know, we talk a little bit about Matt Milano. That's a big X factor for this Bill's defense. I know that yesterday he was limited with a hamstring. So, you know, great that it's not a knee, terrible that it's a hamstring. Like, you don't want a guy to have hamstring issues

heading into a game like you just said it's gonna be below 40 degrees. That's not ideal, especially for such an important defender. That's, you know, an older guy, Matt Milano in this spot. So, yeah, that's, it's, I was really trying to be on the bills, honestly, Jack, coming into it because I just, I love this team in their story. But to me, it was all about the number,

and it never got to where I felt comfortable that this would be a good bills line to bet. Like, it never got to two and a half three, and it's what we just talked about. They are beloved right now by the public, and there's plenty of smart professional money out there coming heavy on them as well. So I'm not trying to have people overthink this year. You're getting a very unique opportunity.

You have two home favorites that the public doesn't really believe in. And you're getting a good number on both of them. So I like this position we're in. It doesn't feel like it was in other years where everyone's just hammering these number one or number two seeds. This is a unique season where people don't believe in this one or two seat. People believe in the road dogs. And the money, you can follow it. it says that they believe in them.

So it's going to be interesting by game time, see if it comes on the other side. If the professional public money does show up on the Chiefs of the Eagles, because right now this early money, it is without a doubt all in these road dogs. So interesting how people's perceptions can be changed by how brilliant just the quarterbacks are, right?

Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels have been much better players this year than Patrick Mahomes and James and Jalen Hertz, and it has put us in a position, you are 100% right. I don't think we've ever had an experience where we both like a home favorite that are the higher seeds that none of the public wants to bet. Like it's such a, it's a different position for us entirely. But like you said, we're all over the Eagles.

We're all over the chiefs. Really important stuff. By the way, one more, one more injury. report. Taylor Rap, safety, did not practice for the bills yesterday. He's got that hip injury. That could be significant. You mentioned Milano. He was limited in practice. We saw what a difference he made for the bills against the Ravens last week. Christian Benford, the cornerback, had a concussion last week, was limited in practice, which could be a good sign because it means he got back on the field. It's one of the first steps you have to make to get through the concussion protocol. So those are

the latest updates. No real injuries of note. for the Chiefs. Okay. To hedge or not to hedge. So I got these questions on Twitter. Before the season began, we each gave out future bets we liked, including Super Bowl matchups. Mine was amongst many Chiefs versus Eagles in the Super Bowl. Every year I do a matchup round Robin in which I bet the teams whose preseason Super Bowl odds are 12 to 1 or shorter. It's a bet that Evan tipped me off to in his preseason story last year. Heading into last year, it was nine of ten. Matchups had been from teams that had odds of 12 to win or shorter.

Last year it happened again. The Chiefs and Eagles were both in this group. Their odds to meet in the Super Bowl preseason were 28 to 1. I bet that. I have that existing. Before we go to Simons, whose bet is even more exciting, because people like to say, no, you didn't really do that. Gifford, let's go to the video evidence.

My finals, Chiefs winning over the Eagles, once again, in the Super Bowl, if they win three straight. And you can get that right now at 55 to 1 on Bet 365. Chiefs beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I just think it's there. They're both going to be the one seeds. If they're both at home, like if the lines got to come to Philadelphia in mid-January, if Purdy has to come to Philadelphia in mid-January,

I just think the Eagles should win that game. The only hesitation I just talked about is the Rams. I think of all the guys that wouldn't be fazed about that kind of environment is the effort. But yeah, I have the Eagles winning it. Denver's the Chiefs, the Chiefs winning the Eagles in the Super Bowl. It's just Chad knows that I love Ben on history. I want to be part of history. It's just it's one of my favorite things.

And this is the team to do it. Like it's just the Super Bowl team always gets a little weaker. I mean, we're seeing it right now with the 49ers. Look all that drama they're having to deal with. Yeah, yeah. The Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there.

So the boring bet, I know. But Chiefs win in the Super Bowl. That's where I'm going, Chad. All right. It's so fun to go back and listen to that because you were spot on about so many things. Not just the Chiefs like in their opportunity, but the way you nailed the Eagles after they had come off a down year, talking about the Rams having to go to Philly, being off the Niners. Brilliant, brilliant stuff. We've all seen your ticket.

We know it is a significant. significant amount of money, and that's just one ticket you have. I know you've got several on this particular matchup, Chiefs beating the Eagles. A couple of our listeners sent me notes. I'm going to read the excerpts of one because it is representative of everything. I'm currently sitting on a Super Bowl futures. Chiefs beating Eagles and Eagles beating Chiefs. Each or one unit bets. Chiefs win pays out. 56 units, as you noted. Simon, we have had it at 55 to 1. Eagles pays out 67. Book is offering a cash out of 20.5 units. I've thought about letting the Eagles game ride. And if they win, betting 28 units on the

bills to cover, also have considered cashing. What strategies would you guys consider? So basically that covers everything, right? That covers a cash out. You and I and Evan talked a little bit about this on Tuesday after the show, talking about waiting to see what happens in the first game. And if the Eagles win, hedging the second game, how will you be handling any hedging this weekend? Yeah, so off the top, everyone should know every person is unique and has their own life going on with your own shit going on your own life. And you need to plan accordingly with these type of bets. If you are in that position that you need this fucking money, if you need this money, cash it out. Like go ahead who cares cash it out take that money you can you made a great bet

The books are begging you to take their money because they are terrified that You're gonna hit this bet and they don't want to pay it out so if you do need the money cash it out if you're building a bank roll and you don't have any money to hedge it you're in that type of spot cash it out there's nothing wrong with that now someone like me There there there is no reason to cash out like I am of course gonna let this ride and it's from the perspective of It's a bet I trusted and it basically came all to exactly what I predicted. These two teams would be at home in this position to win.

The math is telling you this is a good spot to be in. And I'm a unique spot where I really only bet on these two teams for Super Bowl futures. Like I had, I think I had two different bets on the Rams from when I thought it was really stupid, but I basically thought they were open up cap space to have a big signing. They were actually paying out Aaron Donald to retire. So that was a futures bet I did make on the Rams. But other than that, my two heaviest bets were what people just heard in the clip were basically the chiefs and the Eagles. And now I'm in a spot where could I hedge on the commanders?

Yes, I think commanders right now are plus 700 to make the Super Bowl. But I wouldn't do that, especially if you're anyone else out there, this is not the spot to hedge. I think this guy talking about hedging the next game, that's the spot. Like, if you want to take a position to hedge out, do that on the bills. You can either do it on their Super Bowl future. You can either do it taking their number. you could I mean if you're going really balls you throw them in a seven and a half up to seven and a half put them with the eagles take the eagles down to a pick because again it's historical of eagles don't win in this spot it's it's a really good spot to be playing a rookie at home so there's a bunch of different ways you're going to approach it I honestly think if you if you're able to people I'd let a ride like you made a great bet that's why the books are trying to give you a cash out like I'd never cash out because if the books are offering you a cash out one they're going to under they're getting to give you a bad price.

They're not going to pay you out what they should be paying you. And it also just shows that they're terrified because they don't want to cash out people. Like that is not the business they're in. They're in the business of taking your money. So the fact they're even giving you that big of an option shows how terrified they are. So yeah, I would pat myself on the back. People out there if you had the balls to take it in August at 55 to 1 or 50 to 1. And I'd let a ride.

But if you want to take a position to hedge out of it, I wouldn't do on the Eagles game. I would do on the bills game. Because to me, that's the game. that's truly a coin flip, that bills game. Like, none of us will be shocked Sunday night if the bills will have that upset. Simon Hunter, professional coward. I would be shocked if the commanders put it off. So to me, that's where the value is right now if you're trying to hedge it.

And obviously, if you get to the Super Bowl, even more, even easier to take a position. You just basically will put half the money on the Eagles because they will be an underdog. I don't know if this is true, but from my lines, I do have the Eagles as an underdog to the Chiefs or the Bills. I'm positive the books will follow suit. Like they're just, that's just the way it usually is. Usually the AFC is going to get the respect in this type of spot. So, yeah, if you do want to be patient, I think you'll get a nice opportunity in the Super Bowl.

But yeah, Chad, feeling pretty good. I basically have somewhere around 5K invested in the Chiefs to beat the Eagles to win 300K. And obviously people know I'm an Eagles fan. I have a ton of money invested in the Eagles Super Bowl future. So, yeah, no bets. I've seen the commanders. No one saw this coming.

I was, I talked about coming to the year. I did doubt the bills, did not see this type of run happening. So have no money invested and I would need to hedge out if I had to in that game against the Chiefs. But like I just said, I'm going to let it ride. I'm confident in our position. I love our bets right now. So if you want to let, if you want to hedge in that second game, if you've got the Eagles and the Eagles make it and you want to hedge on the bills in that second game in a matchup

because you have the Chiefs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl, Evan is also really good at this stuff. So maybe when we bring them in a second, I'm going to ask him his opinion too. What's your normal hedging strategy? Do you bet half a unit on the team so you can recover half of the winnings that you would have otherwise had? Even if you bet half a unit, you're still going to be way ahead on whatever you put in for the futures. Most people aren't putting in a full unit when they're betting on futures at long odds.

So what would you as an amount tend to bet if you were to head? edge in this second game. Once again, it's tough because it's about your confident level. I mean, you have a 55 to one ticket. So I would view it as at minimum five to eight units on the bills. Like you want to make some good money here. And even if that doesn't hit, you still leave yourself a huge ticket for that Super Bowl future.

So it all depends your position. Like I said, if you do just want to recoup your losses, you could do what Chad just talked about. You could just put one unit on it, like play it safe because you are confident, but you want to make sure you at least get that money back to invested way back in August. But to me, I'm all about turning profits. So at minimum, I would say two to three units on the bills because you want to make some money, which is a great play.

It's like you deserve that reward. You deserve to get a nice kickback for that. And that's what I'm saying with people that don't have that type of money put down or they're not confident in it, hit that cash out button. Like you're getting paid out a nice penny here for a bet you made. So there's just so many ways you can attack it. But yeah, for me personally, I want to get some money back that I made good bet on.

So I would definitely go three to four or five units on it just so I can get a nice hit even if I do lose that bet. And like we've done before, you can find a middle. That's why it sucks that it's dropped back down from two. But if this got up to two and a half three, you're getting on a really nice chance to hit a middle with that bill's number, which again, that's a position we want to be. We want to have a middle spot.

But I think the books are wise to it. They're not really going above that two number. Super Bowl futures. Eagles plus 175, Chiefs plus 220, Bills plus 230, commanders plus 750. Any worthwhile investment here. I was leaning to playing the Chiefs at plus 220 just because obviously we like them to get to the Super Bowl. They're not going to have those kind of odds when they get there. I probably like them to win the Super Bowl. So I feel like I'm getting the best number on the Chiefs over the, that I'm going to get over the next two and a half weeks. Yeah, so basically, the way to go about this is if you have no futures,

if you're just looking for an opinion on who we think is going to win the Super Bowl, I think me and Chad are both in agreeance. We think it's going to be the Chiefs. Like it just, if those lined up for them, they have the perfect team put together right now, the way they play, even if it is the Eagles or Commanders, I think they match up well against both of them. And, you know, you can shop around right now. there are a couple plus 2 30s, a couple plus 220s out there.

On them to win the Super Bowl at this point, the Chiefs, that's basically you get in a line of their money line as if they were a four, four and a half point dog. So that to me is great value on the Bills and the Chiefs. Like if you like the AFC side, you're getting great value because I just told you, my model has the Eagles as the dog against the bills and the Chiefs. So in my view of it, if you're trying to play that type of number,

two to one on the Chiefs or the Bills against the Eagles, that's really, really nice future to get. So that's one way to play it. But like I said, I'm already having invested, so I'm not doing anything. But in my opinion, I think there's still value on this chief's team. Like, you know, you're getting them as if they're a four and a half dog against the Eagles, where we know they're most likely going to be a favorite.

So to me, that's where my eyes go, right? I saw that number. I was like, oh, my God, it's above 200. And again, it's just because the bills and the chiefs are playing each other. But still, that's tremendous value against the Eagles team that, you know, We all know they're just the favor just because it's more likely they get there, not because they're better than the bills of the chiefs. So that to me is a horrible number to bet if you're taking the Eagles.

The way to go is either take the chiefs or the bills. Excellent, excellent questions from our users and breakdown. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about edge boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit with the Edge Boost Visa debit card.

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That's edgeboost.com. bet. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy.

Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsClyce brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to SportsClyce on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. I know the answer to this. Simon's biggest bets. Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs.

God damn it. God damn it. Oh, God damn it. Eagles, Eagles. Am I right? Yeah, and I love the totals too. On the Eagles over, on the Chiefs under. I believe Chiefs are, Chiefs under is still 47.

A half. Still like the value there. Still would tick that under. and the Eagles over, I could see it moving as they get closer to the game. Right now it's still 47 and a half. I can usually see that get up to 48, 40 and a half, which that's where I got at a model of that.

I think there's still value on the over. And my view of it is what me and Chad kind of talked about there where, you know, Eagles are a big play offense, and there's a high variance right now on this commander's team, them going forward and fourth down. And I just don't see many threes being kicked in this game. Even the Eagles don't really trust their kicker right now. So it feels like Washington Eagles easily get turned into a shootout,

And that Chief Spills game, both sides wanted to be boring, want to take long, slow drives. And it's basically bumped up just because of the names, right? It's Mahomes versus Allen. We're getting probably two to three free points because people are still living in 2020, 2021. Like these are not those same teams. And it's not winning football. We've seen that. The NFL is shifted now where it's the three, the three, I mean, you can even say commanders, like the four best teams left,

all go for the most and most successfully on fourth down, and they all have good strong run game. So we've definitely seen a shift chat in the NFL, and that plays into this Chief Spills game. I just, I like that under there. So yeah, both favorites and then an over and under. Pretty, pretty simple. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

Let's play Scooch Roulette. Scooch Roulette last week you had Buffalo. I had Baltimore. I feel like we're going to end up on the same teams this week. Nah, well, you can go first. You pick, I'll go and I'll go a different team. Well, I want the Chiefs.

Yeah, I'll go Eagles then. All right. Hey, ain't nobody trying to hear that bullshit. All right, before we get out of here, let's welcome in our direction. You're so magnanimous. You're feeling so good this week. You're unlike Matt Mitchell, who's like,

says he's free and happy and, you know, just joy. I've never seen him more unhinged. Dancing like no one's watching. and yet we're seeing him come in seven years of knowing him. Yeah. I've never seen him this unhinged. Go outside, nerd. Get out.

Go. I ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless chime is. Gone. You better tell this some bitch to walk the fuck out right now. Are we done for the day? Gone. When we get out of here, let's welcome in our director of research, Evan Abrams, for the final word.

Tell me something, Evan. Make me feel good. The last word. with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. To be fair, for people who have known Matt Mitchell for as long as you and I have, I mean, this is the closest he's ever been

to the Promise Land. Like, this is actually the closest. Like, 13 seconds and the whole thing, yeah, this is the Bill's team that isn't turning it over, it's playing safe football, it's doing exactly what they need to do to get there. So I think he's unhinged because he's never been this nervous in his life.

I'd like to see on Sunday night if they just lose regular Correct. How he's feeling when we got to record the podcast. Yeah. He barely made it on to the show last Sunday. I mean, he's not showing up the place and then he's showing up early and screaming at everyone.

It's been, it's been wonderful. To answer some of your questions from earlier, there are hypothetical lines out for the Super Bowl right now. So, yeah, like KCN Buffalo, about four and a half point favorites over Washington in both situations. And Casey Buffalo,

both about one and a half favorite. it's over Philly. That's right. At this point. The interesting thing about those look at headlines, Buffalo Washington total is 53 and a half, which is fun. Everything else is kind of in order. All right, so I'll give you a few stats for some of these games. You guys have talked about the Chiefs and some of the advantages they have. Well, they have another advantage.

If you watch the games last weekend, they played the first game of the weekend. They played on Saturday. Well, Buffalo played the last game of the weekend. So Chiefs actually do have a full day rest and prep advantage against Buffalo in this one. So Andy Reed in his career, 45 and 12 straight up. Chiefs and Eagles when coaching a game on extended prep time more than a full week, while his opponent is on normal or less. When that game is at home, he's 31 and 7 with Mahomes. Reed is 20 and 3 in that spot and 14 and 1 at home with the

rest advantage. So let's talk about the other thing I was going to mention is this, Casey's bet percentage. Now, depending on the book at action, we do like a consensus. his percentage. Right now it's in about the low 30s, which would be one of the lowest of his career. So Buffalo definitely getting some love in this game. And let's turn our attention now to Washington and Philly. So yeah, Washington is a six point underdog, but they feel like a bit of a different six point underdog, and especially this year because of their scoring. They're averaging 29.1 points per game, including the playoffs. Since the merger, only the 2014-2015 Packers behind Aaron Rogers, averaged 29 points per game or more,

and were this high of an underdog in the conference championship. They closed plus eight and a half against Seattle in that game. They actually led 197, lost 28, 22. They did cover the spread. It means very little. I think the thing I'm trying to prove here is that Washington is kind of an enigma. Like, they're honestly a team from a scoring point of view, from the fact that they have a rookie head coach,

you know, a new one for Washington and an actual rookie quarterback. So I just think they're a little bit messing with the models because of their offense. And then I'll give you this last note, pure from BetLabs, but commanders had no playoff experience, didn't make it last year. While the Eagles, they've got a decent amount of playoff experience being to the Super Bowl. And obviously they were there last year. So teams who didn't make the playoffs the year prior are seven and ten against the spread versus a team who did in the conference championship dating back to 2004.

When the spread is over a field goal, they are one in nine. straight up and four and six against the spread. Now the one upset, Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the Chiefs in 2022 that took Mahomes home and took them to the Super Bowl. So the numbers aren't fantastic for Daniels, but who the heck cares at this point? I mean, he's won twice as underdogs and now he's an underdog again. That's only happened once where you've won all three games in the playoffs as an underdog to get to the Super Bowl, 2008 Giants. So we will see what type of history Washington makes on Sunday. My favorite Daniels stat is in nine season,

Dak Prescott, two playoff wins. Jane Daniels, one season, two playoff wins. I love the troll. Well, look, it's very possible. He's just a cheat code that can't really be accounted for. Yeah. And we're having all these conversations about it. And in the end of the day,

he's Mahomes asking what he can do on the field that you have to discount every other element of the game. What was that stat that Andy Rehombs? with Patrick Mahomes is 20 and three straight up with an extra day of rest? It's just a rest advantage. Yeah. So when they have eight or more, so like more than a full week, and the opponent is normal or less, so seven or less, 20 and three with Mahomes, 14 and one at home.

When I say 14 and one, though, I in my brain, I'm saying to myself, who was the loss? I honestly can't remember, but I have to look it up. You know, it's going to be the Raiders. It's something stupid like the Raiders. It's always Raiders or Tom Brady, which is now the same thing, so which is funny. That is funny. Thank you, Evan. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5.

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