The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 10

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Road favorites have dominated this season, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss if this trend will continue across the NFL Week 10 slate. Together they discuss the Cowboys bouncing back, a good home spot in the Hoosier State, a weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs. It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford show on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist

and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world

that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network live from my Tommy John Home Studio.

I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my Capadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad, how we doing? Dude, I feel like, and I'm excited for the show, because by the end of yesterday, you know, the rhythm is like Monday, we're digging in deep, Tuesday, we're talking about everything. But by the end of Wednesday, I've done a lot more research, as have you, by about 5 o'clock yesterday afternoon, I just felt like the whole puzzle came together. and I had such clarity on every game.

And you can see what I put into the app already. Like I put in a bunch of picks yesterday based on how lines were moving and where I thought they were going to go and what I was seeing in betting percentages and some of the matchup research I had done. I slacked you and Mitch this morning and I'm like, I'm not mushing it.

I don't care. I feel strong and I feel powerful. That's how I feel. I love the confidence. Today is our NFL week 10 best betts. episode, Simon and I will narrow down our five picks in the favorites, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now, still wins some weekly prizes. Favorites. Dot action network.com. We will get into our Foxo. We'll give out our Tommy John, big balls.

Bet of the week. We'll discuss Simon's biggest bets. Our boosted money line underdog, Harley, the underdog, round robin, and so much more. Betts are rolling in, lines are moving, decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss Colin Howard likes to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10.

Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, futures and more, whatever the moment. It's never ordinary at Bet365. Must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply.

All right. It is Thursday, and like we'd like to do on Thursday, we'll hear how the wise guys are responding. to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines. And the wise guys like to tell us what we're doing right and what we're doing wrong. Simon, it's time for sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking.

Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? Let's go with the biggest disagreement off the top, Chad. I like the Rams. The professionals love Miami. I'm so glad you said that. And we're, like, we're going to go deeper into that one. It's when I was doing my notes yesterday, it was the one like I couldn't wait. It's clear foxhole.

Like, we can say right now, if we're doing that, it's a foxhole because I knew the wise guys love this game. Go ahead. Yeah, I love it because it's giving me a better number on a Rams team I love. So I'm happy for it. They got the value, I guess, at two and a half. That was a good number to them. That was a key number for them. I get the movement and the bet for them.

But I just view it as these are two. two totally different teams going in totally different directions. The Rams last week couldn't have played any worse, but Stafford showed up in a big spot with a big throw. And that's another reason I love them in this game. It's really about Stafford. And yeah, a game, like you said,

we're going to dive into us. I don't want to spoil too much. But man, was I like calling everyone to figure out what the hell is going on here? Why is this number of moving so much? So that was definitely a shocker. After our show, Tuesday, I don't know what I was doing, but I remember I checked up the app, the action app again.

All of a sudden I saw that it was down to two. And then I saw it was moving to one and a half. I was like, whoa, is someone hurt? Did I miss something? So that was definitely a game that was pretty shocking, all the movement on that money line for that Rams and Miami game. Next one is the Jets. We talked about it.

I didn't really know what was going on here. The professionals are all the Jets. So that's a game we might have to take. I've kind of been talked into the Jets here in this spot at this number. So that's again. I'm looking forward to talking to. Cowboys, we loved seven and a half. Still a couple sevens out there.

The professionals love that number, especially because AJ Brown might not play. We know how bad that offense is without him. Hertz is banged up, right? He didn't practice this week. Devante Smith didn't practice either. So there is reason to take this big number with this Cowboys team, even though it is no doubt about it,

Cooper Rush, behind this bad offensive line. So that's a, that's going to be a fun game to break down. Again, we and you loved the, Colts, professionals love it. We saw that touch three, three and a half at a couple books. Now it's back up to four. Still love it if you can get the four, right? We talk all the time about key numbers.

That seems like that's gonna be a game that's gonna either land right on three or right on four, right? That feels like a really tough game, especially for our desperate Colts team. But yeah, that was not that shock. And the last one, again, I really liked, you really like the Saints. No shock here, right? The pros versus Joe's and this is this matchup. It's kind of the same thing with this Houston and Detroit game.

Even though we're on Detroit, that's just the exact same thing as this one. It's all professionals on the dog, home dog, and it's all the public coming on this road team. Shock to no one, so I was hoping this would go up. We've seen a couple force pop with this Saints number. That would be great for us. I would love to get more value here just because we both agree.

This Saints team is banged up. They are not that good. We're really just playing the spot in the number here. So any more value we can get on this number, I feel more confident about it. But at the end of the day, it's a nice spot to be fed in this Falcons team on a home divisional dog.

So here's what I love. The Jets, to me, were, the Jets were the swing state of this, of this particular slate to me. Whereas like by, you know, we were wishy-washy on it. I had no read on it, honestly. Like I told you, I made Cardinals a favorite. I thought they were the right side.

But yeah, I was definitely wrong on that. We were, we're going to go deeper. And by, by the end of, Yesterday I'm like, I feel like I like the Jets here. So I'm glad we're going to have a conversation about it. The first game up, let's get into the slate. This was your Simon Says game, the Pittsburgh Steelers at two and a half,

plus two and a half against Washington. It moved from three to two and a half, as you predicted. We all talk too much. Sharp dudes can just see it. Because sharp dudes don't care what you say anyway. They're just watching. You know what I mean? I'm a little surprised it wasn't part of the Sharp Call's rundown.

I'm a little worried about it because I love the Steelers here. It's a public dog. But what I do like with this game is 48 hours ago, it was the money was sort of split. Now there's a preponderance of money on the Steelers. And there's more money on the Steelers than there is tickets. So like when we look in the action app, we see. the betting ticket percentage difference and we see the money percentage difference. 61% of the bets are on the Steelers. So that's the public is the bets. 67% of the money is on the

Steelers. So what that tells me is that while all of that 67% captures the public betting market, there's also a little bit of a lift because the wise guys came in, which is why the line moved from three to two and a half, Simon. There are 27 teams in pro football. And then there are the Pittsburgh Steel. Yeah, I didn't throw it in there just because it's not a game that like it's consent. Like all the pros are betting, right? I've talked to multiple groups and it just seems like it's us and a couple other guys that like this spot where a couple people are like,

I'm either on Washington or I'm not betting this at all because Washington has just been good to the betters, right? Like most pros you talk to, you know, they love this Washington team. Just like we talk about. We love Washington too, but at some point we have to sell at this value. And right now, Jane Daniels, who's 5 and O is a favorite against the spread and straight up. Like, come on now. When does it go the other way? This is insane.

I don't think we've seen anything like this. I mean, everyone knows better than me. I can't remember the last time seeing a rookie do this. Maybe Rothusberger or someone ran them like that. But to be 5 and 0 from the start of the season, like he started a game one of the year. It's not like Purdy coming in late in the season onto a great team. This is a guy uplifting in this team this season to be 5 and 0 against the spread. Eventually the value is going to be too much.

So I agree with you. I was shocked. This wasn't a more professional, better heavy thing. But like you just said, the money says otherwise. Seems like there is a lot of professional money coming in. So I still like it, but you like you just said, probably going to have to take this at two and a half in the contest, brother. I mean, that's where it's going to be at. And it's like, I really like it still.

but if you have other games you like more, I totally get it. Right now it's a top five for me. It's really going to be the Jets on the outside, and we'll see if we end there for me. But what's interesting about the commanders is, and I understand why there's a sentiment to bet on Jaden Daniels, we've passed through, similar to C.J. Stroud last year, that, all right, his performance is fluky, into his performance is real. And he's made what was supposed to be a terrible offensive line look better. He's made mediocre talent outside of Terry McLaurin look better.

What's really interesting to me is the Marchand Latimer trade. Not that this is something that moves the line or gives them any more of an advantage against the Steelers team that, you know, their outside talent is George Pickens and now Mike Williams. it's because the commanders are recognizing the new reality of the NFL, which is you've got a high-performing rookie on a rookie contract. This could be their window. Like, the lions are clearly best in the NFC, but after that, the Eagles, they're competing with the commanders.

The Niners, they've been struggling. So the commanders see, like, in the standings, they got a shot and they got a quarterback whose window is wide open, you go and get to the nineers. you go and get the best available talent. Like to me, that speaks to their confidence, which also is, you know, you said the other day, you love this commander's team. It's hard not to love him for that.

Yeah, but at the end of the day, like we both love Pittsburgh and it's all about Tomlin and him being 26 and 6 straight up against rookie quarterbacks. Like, he just shines in this exact spot. And it's a rare opportunity. It's Tomlin as a dog against a rookie quarterback. So it's, I can't pass on it. Tomlin is a road dog, 61% against his spread.

a most profitable coach in the NFL the past 20 years. I also think, and I said this on Tuesday, this is the best defense that commanders have faced. The best, the Steelers pressure stats are mediocre, but T.J. Watt, Alex Tye Smith on the edges, playing together, that's easily the best combination Jaden Daly's face. Yeah, that basically this, not that this game will decide them

when in the division, but they literally have this game and then they play the egos on a short week. like they could in the next two games basically lock up the division in a playoff spot if they can perform in these spots and it's the toughest spot you can possibly imagine you're going against tomlin then you're going against the eagles on the road it's it's pretty i mean we've had high praise for jane danes i know he's people talk about MVP this is literally where he can make himself actual into the MVP conversation he wins back to back these type of games and what we perceive as i think he's going to lose both of them just incredibly tough spots it's just um this feels

like a big, big deal of a tone setter for Washington for the rest of the season, these next two games. Chad Milman will be taking his son Owen to his first NFL game, Eagles, commanders, next Thursday night. That's sick. That's good. Cool is that. Yeah. How cool is that? We have a, he just turned 18. We're going to Nick's Bulls at MSG Wednesday night. I think the train down to Philly late Thursday, go to dinner with my kid, who's in Philly at Drexel, then we go to the game, and then we get up the next morning,

going to visit University of Maryland, and that night, going to the Maryland Marquette basketball game, three games, three nights, blowing it out, super friend style. Look at you letting your kid miss school. I think the only time I ever missed school

was when I was getting suspended, so props to you for being a cool dad. Dude, it's, it's, he's a senior in high school. He's applied to all the colleges. Like three days, it's not going to matter. Buffalo, in three days to go see

three premier sporting events, you got to do it. Now I'm jealous. Buffalo at Indianapolis, we just talked about it. This was your second short for Simon says. And on Tuesday, we were still digging into it. I don't think we had the same confidence.

You pegged it as as as as as Simon says, really I think we looked at it as a buy, low, sell high. We were selling high on the road Faye that coming off the last second division win. that puts them in the driver's seat for their division basically in November. You know, Josh Allen is odds on for MVP. Their Super Bowl odds are improving.

We're buying low on a team that look really bad against the Vikings in prime time. But this line actually got up to four and a half and then it's like it got to four and a half and it was streaking down the second it hit four and a half. Like Bet365 is at four, but a lot of places are at, three and a half.

I know not only like it as a buy low sell high. I like the matchup too. I don't know if that's playing into your thinking here. Love the matchup and all the other BS off field, right? All those stuff we always talk about, the look ahead spot. The chiefs coming up.

I mean, this is like we just talk about the Washington's deciding their season. This is like, this sort of run here will decide if the bills can get that one seed, right? They got the Colts here, then the chiefs, then a buy. Then they have 49ers,

Rams, Detroit. I mean, talk about an insane. a little run here, a little stretch for this Bill's team. And me and you talk about like this bill's team, we think they're really good, but we've seen them struggle this season against teams that are kind of at the same level as them.

And that's what this to me will really decide here. Are the Colts an actual playoff team, or what we see to start the year was kind of fluking a lot of luck with them. Because you said it, right? They're four and oh against the spread at home this year. And I mean you have been a lot on the, I've been on those games and that we always felt like we got away with one,

especially that week one against Houston with Anthony Richardson. So we love this spot. It's also the whole thing of Flacco was not as bad as he was in that previous game. Like that was the worst start we've seen by Flacco in the last two years, including what he's obviously did for that Browns team last year. And looking at the matchup with this Bill's team, you can attack the middle field. You can run it down their throat if you can establish it.

And that's what the Colts want to do. That's literally what their identity is built around this team is to basically ride down your throat. Once you have the safety you step up, they just take deep shots. And we've seen that even with Anthony Richardson, now Joe Flack was happy to run that same exact type of offense where it's like, okay, bring the safeties down and stop the run, that's when we'll attack these teams deep.

And offensively, obviously, we're scared of this Bill's team. You know, they're going to be able to move the ball. It's can the Colts keep up with them offensively. I think that can in this matchup. So another game, I mean, you were just really playing the number. I think this number should be three. It's four, three and a half. We're happy to still take the four if you can find it.

So you mentioned the offense for the Bills. The strength of the Bills is their rushing game. And Gian Kohlman is going to be out. Amari Cooper's, you know, has not been playing. So their ability to throw the ball is a little bit diminished. But the one thing that I do think the Colts have been getting better at is stopping the run, right? Since Buckner came back, we've seen Stewart, Grover Stewart, like how Dominion. and he was against the Chiefs the other night.

I do think, I'm not against the Chiefs, but this past weekend. He played really well against the Vikings. I do think that's an opportunity for them. And on the flip side, you just mentioned it, like the Colts running game offensively, that's their strength. Like, they are fourth and yards per play,

fourth in rushes of 10 plus yards, eighth in rush yards over-expected. the number one ranked offensive line for run blocking, according to pro football focus, the Bill's Rushdie is just not very good. So a lot of matchup stuff in addition to the spot, in addition to the public perception, like all the things that we like to bet from public perception to number to match up are lining up here. I can see this definitely making the contest. By the way, by the way, road favorite.

with a winning percentage of 75 or more, 75% or more. The past decade, 43% against the spread. That said, let's not forget. This season, road favorites are, what are they, 16 games over 500 against the spread, this season, best ever. The past five weeks, 46, 29, and one against the spread, road favorites.

So our favorites overall. So like the trends are valuable for historical context has not been a play this year, which has been part of our struggles. No, it's been brutal, but it's like I always say that I don't want to over adjust because it's like once we do, that's when it comes back around the other side.

And that's something I tried doing last week and it clearly didn't work. So I'm just trying to stick to it where it's like, can't over adjust they'll come back around it's just been a little bit of a fluky year with everything that's going on i think it's worth explaining the idea of adjustment i don't want to make matt mitchell's head pop off because i know he wants us to keep moving but i've seen like some of these comments in i do go and like rewatch the shows and i will see the comments in the youtube channel oh don't tell them that shed no and like we get we get stuff on twitter and so people are asking like

why aren't you adjusting and things like that so bookmakers don't over-adjust. Like you can't in your power rating. Just explain for like 60 seconds why it's a bad idea to over-adjust based on four-week, six-week sample sizes of data. I do say you do want to adjust, but what you're saying about over-adjusting is just you're basically just totally throwing out everything you believe and you work on to go with what's happening right now.

And we always talk about like the thing that makes the performance. professional is better is different than the public better is they don't overreact to small samples right you don't overreact to just you know three four bad weeks which is very rare if it happens I can't totally throw out what I've gotten me to where I'm at in life on betting and I can't just throw away all the data and numbers I always use to try to adjust it now like I mean you talked years ago the spread offense totally changed NFL I was ahead of it right I was using a college model to do professional betting and it was a big adjustment where like you know Guys who have only strictly bet NFL, they need to adjust to the spread coming into the NFL. That was a huge change from 2010 to say 2017, 2018. Then we saw the read option came in, which is, again, you had to adjust your model to these running quarterbacks or running these read options. So that stuff I do make adjustment to the home field. I mean you talked about, I made adjustments to that. I moved it down for most guys had it at three.

Some teams, I only have them at one to half for home field advantage. Like good teams, I make them two points. That's a big adjustment. Us just blindly betting these road favorites because they've been covering, that's too much from an overadjustment. So that to me is the biggest thing of we agree with it. Maybe it's, I don't put as much on some of these lines, but it's like the Rams last week.

That honestly before, that wouldn't have been one of my bigger bets, right? The Rams were on the road in a divisional game against a desperate Seahawks team. But I adjusted this year being like, okay, this shouldn't just be minus one and a half. This should be three because these road teams have been performing better divisionally. But on the flip side, you have games like the Saints,

which was a total miss right against Carolina where it's like, that's where I did over adjust. That number I shouldn't have made it six and a half. I made it seven and a half. So I was like, okay, I like this number for the Saints team. That was way off. So that's been the biggest issue with me is I'm trying,

like you talked about earlier in the year, the divisional home dogs have not been hitting like they have before me in the past. And it's been hard not to over. adjust to that because it's what's happening this season. I'm not trying to just bet basically what happened off the previous years. I am trying to bring into the new data of like, okay, my old way of thinking is not what it used to be. I need to adjust to what the market is doing right now.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games. and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are

chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the look back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it, including a recent episode

with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, yeah, literally. But just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So, we're not. We're Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many. incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important

to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keer Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose

on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great. Take over another country.

From My Heart Podcast, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire.

Do you rate me? They're pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. Fort Bridge on. Let's get out. Freedom for me. Saigon, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict.

Sting here's madness. The world should hear about this. There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm glad you mentioned home divisional dogs. I'm glad you mentioned road favorites. We do have a road favorite that we're going to talk about. I love it.

We talked about it on Tuesday. I love it even more. We'll get to that. The next bet up is a divisional game. Denver, Kansas City. Kansas City is an eight-point favorite. We end in Haude a bit on Tuesday because of how bad the Broncos looked against the Ravens. And excuse me, I feel like we were a little bit bummed because the line was at nine and a half on Sunday when we first talked about it. We were hoping it would get to 10. And I think because of that, we missed a little bit.

little bit of the take a bite at the nine and a half. This is a pro's Joe's game. The pros are on the Broncos. The Joe's are on the Chiefs. It went from eight and a half down to eight. Yesterday, it was actually at seven and a half. I bet it at eight and a half. It's in the Action Network app.

It's now at eight. I like the Broncos here. I'm not afraid of it in any way. I'm not either. I've come around on it because I was with you. I honestly wanted to be on the Chiefs here. But because I do think the Hopkins edition, it's a big deal to this team. Like he is clearly once he builds a rhythm with Mahomes, that's going to be a game

change because right now him and Kelsey are peaking. Like that since Rice has got injured, every week Kelsey has just gotten better and more comfortable than Mahomes. You can really tell that like whatever happened early in the year, he clearly came not, I don't want to say out of shape into the season, but it wasn't that Kelsey we all knew and we all thought it was the age thing. Now we've seen him in good shape. It was not an age thing.

I mean, Kelsey is back to being a top three tight end. So that's hesitation in me is that I don't know if the books have adjusted enough to this. But I mean, you talk about that Bo Nix was just, I don't want to say unlucky against the Ravens, but it kind of felt like they were, right? Like all the little things that could have gone wrong went wrong for them. And the public reacted over too much to it. So at eight and a half, I would take it. But it's down to seven and a half at a lot of books now.

Yeah, I mean, I think it'll be interesting in the contest. Right, but at what point do I want to take the Chiefs? Like if this touches seven, I'd much rather have more money on the Chiefs at the seven than I would the Broncos eight and a half, just because we did see last week they looked like a young team that had beaten up on bad teams. And once they played a veteran good team, they did get down there. I mean, Lamar, he could have done whatever he wanted against that defense. Like once he figured them out, it was totally over for them.

So that's why I'm happy. This is not going to be one of our five and we don't have to because I'm, I, I, I, did bet the Broncos eight and a half but if it does get to seven that's where all my money will be on this chief's team when i was looking at our five um this was this is either last one in or first one out to me uh and the jets are sort of the the the replacement yeah i'd rather have the jets than them i will say division favorites plus seven seven or more covering it just a 49 percent clip the past 20 years. We know Mahomes' record as a favorite of more than three. Short rest too this week. Short rest, more than three, tweaked ankle. I was watching some video yesterday. Like, at the end of that

game, he was really limping. He was barely moving on that ankle. I know he says it'll be fine. He'll be ready. But I also like teams coming off a blowout, 20 plus points, 57% against spread the following week. A lot of trends and a lot of on-field stuff to favor the Broncos here. We have to think the Broncos, don't mean. Evan just had a good note in our app. It's like, and they're off OT in a short week. Yeah, that's what I mean. Oh, man.

I have to think of Broncos, don't I? Yes. Like, I would not be betting the Chiefs here at all. Look, the Chiefs, the Chiefs are dominant. They've won what, 14, 15 in a row. But they win their games by five or six points per game. Yeah. You know, they're methodical.

they are not throwing the ball downfield, 20 plus yards, explosive plays. That's just not their game. And I agree with you with DeAndre Hopkins. They're a different team with him playing, but he's not an explosive downfield receiver. What he is is one more outlet who knows how to play in space and find the pocket to give Patrick Mahomes a target. He's got like top five hands in the league, though. Like that that doesn't mean.

He's a difference maker for Mahomes. He's got a guy now. He can just throw it to him. He'll catch anything. Right. That's great. But to me, the way they're going to utilize that, 10 yards down the field, 10 yards down the field.

It's third and eight. There's DeAndre Hopkins for 14 yards, right? It's not like they're going to have short drives that end in seven points and they're going to score eight times in a row. So. We'll see. Because again, the Hopkins thing that was, he had this play in that game where he was coming back.

He saw Mahom's scrambling. and he knew to turn it upfield. And that was his second game on that team, Chad. That's, that's like crazy, crazy good. Like, I can't believe how good Hopkins is still that he saw Mahomes going out. And he left his route and was like, I'm just going to go deep because my homes will give me a chance. And he did. He threw it.

Perfect ball, perfect catch. So, yeah, that's just, that's my view of it. Like, you're right. I'm thinking long-term year. I got to just think this week. And obviously the Broncos is the play this week. Simon? Yes, sir.

Are you ready? It is time for big balls, bed of the week. Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest. Guy, we need all the support we can get to hold our very big balls on this bet. New Orleans Saints plus three and a half. at home against the Atlanta Falcons.

Look, the line moved from three to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday. I had already bettered at three and a half. It's not a huge surprise that it got up to four. And then went back down to three and a half at 365. There are fours out there if people want to look for them. This is the biggest luck side of the week in our luck rankings,

which you know we love. Derrick Carr, he lost four games this year. He missed three games during their seven game losing streak. Three of those games, they lost to the Chiefs by 13. Other than that, they've lost by three points, two points, one point, obviously one of those games, was against the Falcons.

Well, this is a team that was so embarrassed against the Panthers. Their most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized. apologized, but we're taking the Saints. It's one of those games where it actually makes no sense to me not to take the Saints. But it's a game you hate yourself because you have to take it. That's how I feel about it. I don't even, you know what? I actually don't.

I don't know what's going on this week. I'm loaded up on different kinds of steroids for this cough that I've had for a few weeks. And so maybe I'm just feeling more energetic than usual. or maybe I'm, you know, seeing the light. Not once have I been afraid to bet this Saints team. Yeah, my only fear of it is just if this turns into a track meet, we're done so. Because now we have Derek Carr throwing to backup receivers. Like, I really hope Alave's back.

We need him for the match. He's not playing. No. No. So, yeah, this is just, we're trusting the number, trust in the spot. But, yeah, like matchup-wise, when I was diving into a chat, It's not ideal. Honestly, the biggest takeaway to me is that Elena doesn't get pressure.

Derrick Carr is great when he's not getting pressured. You can run the ball against obviously to land up front. The fear for me is just that they just got rid of their best corner on this New Orleans team. And now we're getting Drake London, who's been great this year. So that's like the movement to me is interesting that it even got up to four because it just shows that there is some professional money on the Atlanta side where I thought this was going to be a total. Pro's Joe's game where it's gonna be all professional money on this Saints. So like you just said, people out there You don't need a rush to get this is the reason I didn't make this assignment says either. It's like you don't need a rush got the three and a half

I still think it could go back up to four four and a half by game time But this is What me and Chad love to do like this exact team like this is like the lady the bias of low on this Saints team They've lost seven straight games Playing against a Falcons team that has a big leading division everyone thinks to the best team that's the best team that's a big league in the division everyone thinks to the best team this division where I still think the bucks, even though they lost him twice, like if they were healthy, this would have been their division, right? The bucks clearly were the better team this year, but they just haven't had the luck this Atlanta team has. So I'm happy to sell on this

Atlanta team, especially this number in this matchup, Saints at home. Historically, this is a good spot to take them. And now you factor in the fact they fired their coach who seems like most of the guys in the team absolutely hated. That's just what I've read online. So usually this is a nice spot for us. Evan had in his article, I think it's 2217 against the spread teams after firing their head coach. So we'll take that number at plus three and a half. You're not wrong about Derek Carr. He looks like a decent quarterback if you look just at the stats. But as very famous Herpford resident and American Treasure

Mark Twain once said. There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Derrick Carr gains a lot of yards, does not win a lot of games. That makes his whole career a facade.

So we're betting on a guy. We hate to bet on, but it's exactly what we have to do in our big balls, bed of the week, because our sponsor, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. They've changed my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better. That's why we can bet on the New Orleans Saints.

If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John, get 25% off your first order right now at Tommy John.com slash favorites. save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. All right. We talked about road favorites. San Francisco, six point road favorite at Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more work on this game yesterday,

I just loved it more and more. Love the Niners here. It was at five and a half yesterday. I bet it at five and a half. It's in the app. I still like it at six. I actually don't know. if it'll get back to five and a half.

Like the public had been betting on the bucks. It was one of these weird pros Joe's games where the public was betting the bucks probably because of how they played against the chiefs and thinking about the nineer struggles. But the wise guys have been coming in on San Francisco, Simon. I got a lot of reasons I like it, but I want to hear your take before I dig into them.

Yeah, actually a few professionals I talk to, they've taken the bucks. If you like the bucks, they've taken them first half. They think that's the spot to take this team because you basically have a four-niners team coming off a buy into this matchup where this might be McAfrie's first start of the year. All of it is just, if that's where you want to attack this four-niners team, try to attack the first half because you just nailed it. Like this is the same scenario with the chiefs, right? So a team on a short week, they played into

overtime. Then they had to fly back home to play this matchup against the team off a buy week. So it's like five and a half chat, this is our week of five and a half in contest. We put it in and McCaffrey is cleared and he's going to play. No doubt about it, I'd take it. If McCaffrey is out again for this game, I wouldn't honestly put this in our contest. And this wouldn't be one of my bigger bets. Like that's how important I think he is to this offense.

Because as good as the other guys have done, we always talk about McCaffrey is such a difference maker. Even the other day, I was watching highlights from them from last season. It was like every time they needed a big play, he was there. Anytime they needed a first down carry for five or six runs to get pretty a short field, he would do it. So I can't wait to have them back. It's obviously a game changer just 49ers team.

And you nailed it. Five and a half people, try to find that number, grab it. If he does get cleared, this goes up to what, six and a half, seven if McCaffrey is cleared before kickoff? I don't actually know, like to me, every indication is that he's playing. And so I wonder if that's already priced into the line a little bit. I mean, it did get up to six and a half. It came back down to six and then five and a half a little bit yesterday.

so there's some buyback. But to me, it might get back to six and a half on Sunday when people who are, you know, you and I live in a world where we're tracking this from Sunday to Sunday. We forget that there's the majority of the betting community is not really paying attention to this until Sunday morning at 11 a.m. Eastern. And so it could get some heavy aggressive action when they realize Christian McCaffrey is playing. Like, if he is playing, and he's fresh against a run defense that is 29th in success rate, which for those who don't know,

it basically calculates how much yardage a team gains on each down, so that they gain 20% of the yardage they need for a first down on first down, 40% on second down, like it scales up. The Bucks D is terrible at success rate. The Bucks D is terrible at line yards, 27th and line yards, which means their D line line basically gives up a lot of rushing yards without getting any contact on the running back. So I like McCaffrey against this defense

over the past two decades. Road faves off of a buy covered a 60% clip. By the way, that number is 70% when the spread is 5.5 or higher. So when you've got a good team coming off a buy as a favorite, they

overperform because they're a good team coming off a buy. So good spot for us here. I feel like this is going to be in the contest. I do think we'll get five and a half. I haven't looked at the numbers yet. Yeah, I'll say, you've convinced me now.

If we can get the five and a half and then Sunday McCaffrey is playing, this is a guarantee to be one of our five. Yeah, I think of it. And I think, like, it hasn't been at six and a half enough that it'll be at six and a half in the contest. So I think we'll get a good number there. This is, to me, this is a, this is the in-and-out game.

New York Jets plus one at Arizona at Bet-365. I will say most places have the Jets as a one point favorite. We had a long chat about the Jets on Tuesday. They were dogs at like one and a half, so he missed that. But over the course of 24 hours yesterday, I just decided the Jets were the side. Like everything made sense to me. Even as like a one point favorite, I know we hate betting against the line flip, but we did it, you know, we've done it.

we did with the Rams last week. I just think the Cardinals are streaky. They've gotten the right teams in the right spots. The Jets have had 10 days. I think they're the better team. Yeah, I told you, I have Arizona is slightly better, graded higher than I do the Jets right now. I'm a model, but as the human, my view of it's kind of the same thing,

like throwing out all the model and everything like you just talked about. I feel like the Jets on paper and just visually are the better team. They've just been unlucky the season where Arizona has been lucky. That's why obviously they have so many more wins. And this is another telling line where I was way off on it. And maybe I haven't adjusted enough to Devonthe Adams coming over, right? That's obviously a big deal to this team. And we'll see how it Rogers does now.

Back to back weeks. You know, he was banged up. coming to that game. He got a little more banged up on Thursday. I saw he had an interview the other day. He said he's fine. He's feeling great. I mean, that's just football talks.

We really don't know. But yeah, looking at this matchup on paper, this should be a great matchup for the Jets offensive. The question is defensively, a team that struggles against the run. That seems like that's Arizona's identity this year, right? They kind of just been running the ball down teams threats. I mean, Kyle Murray, he might be second or third in the league right now in rushing for quarterbacks. He's been great running the ball as well.

So there are always. obviously is ways for Arizona to attack it, but you just nailed it. It's like, isn't this peak Arizona? Haven't they just been on this insane around these last couple of weeks where they've won a bunch of close games and they just blew out that Bears team at home? Now this is the letdown spot, right? Like isn't this where they kind of have that where the Jets, they can't afford it? They're probably one of the most desperate teams in football right now. They know every week is basically a playoff game. So we can ride it with the pros. We can bet it. I honestly have a small bet on this so far. Like you just said, it was really about being a plus one.

It was like, okay, I'll grab the plus one now before it does flip. It hasn't even moved since I bet it yesterday. Like you can still get the plus one out there if you want it. But like Chad said, most books now have the Jets as a favorite. All right. Well, it's on the list. We got six games on the list right now. Philly at Dallas.

Dallas is a seven point dog right now. This was my exact decision when it was at seven and a half. I had four I was interested in heading in Tuesday. Dallas, New Orleans, Denver, and the Jets. And at the time, I chose the Cowboys largely because of the number and being at seven and a half. It was like my own little version of Simon says. The Jets were just confusing us. The Saints were only at three.

The Broncos, we still kind of hoped it would go up. So I grabbed Dallas at seven and a half. It's moved to seven. I'm hopeful Micah Parsons plays, gotten every indication that he will. Yeah. AJ Brown, I think, is going to play. You had mentioned AJ Brown. He practiced yesterday, looked fine.

So to me, this is a spot. We're playing the number, got the half point. I don't think this is a contest play. I don't know that we'll get seven and a half in the contest. It's a hook and their spot is a bigger division dog. Yeah, and we talked, Hertz has struggled on the road. his career he struggled as a big favorite um as an eagles fan i don't think we've ever won in dallas with hertz as a quarterback i could be wrong is that right evan i'm not sure but um i don't think

he's ever won in dallas uh and that's obviously dallas has had some great teams and they're not a great team right now but there's something to that in these divisional games and um you said it though at the base it's just playing the number seven-and-half is just too much for this eagles team that just keeps letting teams get back in the game doesn't matter for the the team's good or bad, they find a way to kind of shoot themselves on the foot and let these teams come back in. And looking at this matchup, obviously, Eagles across the board are a much better team. Yeah, it hurts is 0 for three in his career in Dallas. But at seven and a half, I don't mind taking the number. I bet this number, six and a half, no play for me would not put in the contest.

I agree. 100%. It's going to be, I don't have this making our final five right now. We'll see what we get in the contest. If it's seven and a half, it might make it a harder conversation. It would, I much rather put the Rams or Detroit over this, uh, this, uh, good. You know what? I'm glad because I don't want to, I don't want to put it on the line with the Cowboys. I like the seven and a half number. I'm glad to have made it an exact decision and made a bet. It will be a strong. We got our ugly divisional dog in the scenes. We don't need two of them. Exactly. All right. You just mentioned Detroit three and a half point favorite over Houston. Yeah. I don't, I like, this game worries me.

I know we were talking a lot about Detroit on Tuesday. From a betting point of view, it's really got to be at three. I think we need to show some discipline here. Nico Collins is eligible to come back. He didn't practice yesterday, but they did run him through all these physical tests. They had them running 20 miles per hour on a treadmill. That's deep research right there. That's what I'm bringing to the podcast, okay?

Spending my time trying to figure out. out, our key player is going to play, bringing it to our audience. Will Anderson did not practice. We both know. This was a different team against the Jets as soon as he went out. They were winning and then they lost. As I keep looking at this game, my biggest fear for betting the lions in this game is their rush defense stopping Joe Mixon, who's just, he's playing pissed. Four straight games, 100 yards in a touchdown, ever since he came back from injury. If Nico is back and Joe Mixon is doing what he does against a middling lion's rush defense, that feels like a recipe for pain if we're betting the lions. Yeah, but this also feels like when you talk about a time,

trying to catch a falling knife. It's like, we know Detroit's going to get burned eventually. Like they can't keep up this pace, but we had to. two straight weeks of their offense putting up, what, 250 yards against Tennessee, their special teams that were for them. Last week, same thing, they put up like 257 or 2506. I forget what it was exactly,

but they struggled offensively. Their defense showed up, and defensively, they've been one of the best teams on third and fourth downs in the league. Like, they've really shut teams down even after the Aiden Hutchison injury. You know, their defense is going to be able to attack this Houston team, like you just said.

Like they have a bad offensive line. yes, their biggest weakness is going to be against their run. But if there's no Nico Collins, why would they not stack the box? If they know that's what they're going to need to do here with Houston. So Detroit breaks all the rules. Like golf, we've never seen anything like this.

How he basically every week is the public favorite, biggest public bet, and he just covers. And it's not just because of him. It's the whole team right now. They're just playing at such high level. So your hesitation is warranted. I wanted to be on Houston and coming into this.

It's like another week of trying to fade this Detroit team. but I think last week was just a much better spot and that was where I wanted to do it. And this one, it's like, I told you, I got this line a little higher. I think there's value of three and a half. If you're scared off, you don't want to put it in,

I get it. But yeah, I actually still like Detroit at this number in the spot. And it's really, like you just said, no Will I, no Will Anderson, no Nico Collins. This will become one of my bigger bets come Sunday.

Football is a physical, violent game, physical travels, right? The reason why we've loved, the Lions all year is because we love their offensive line. Like it's just something that it's not, offensive lines are not streaky. No. The way quarterbacks are, the way receivers are,

the way running backs can be. Offensive lines are consistent. That's what you're betting on. I think that's why we fall in love with the lines and why we back them in certain spots, even when that was sort of chalky. I think there's too much running against their defensive line as a run-stopping team

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A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with,

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Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Miami at the Los Angeles Rams. It's time to explain yourself, Mr. Hunter. What do you mean by that? Why do I like the Rams? This is a, this is a pros Joe's game and we are decidedly on the public. team. Yeah.

The number has moved aggressively in the direction of the dolphins, maybe one of the biggest moves of the week. You know, other than Denver and Seattle, Denver and Kansas City, which moved from nine and a half down to seven and a half, there haven't been games unless there have been injuries that have had massive moves like this. So what you're thinking? Yeah, and clearly there's professional betters that just do not simply believe in this Rams team.

They bought heavy on them against that Vikings team, a spot I loved. The following week against the Seahawks, they were not on our side. They were all on the Seahawks. I mean, that number went from two to two and a half all way back down to one, one and a half by kickoff. Like money came in very late on that Seahawks team. Look like it was a pretty good read, right? Stafford did not have a good game. And then we got a pick six from Gino and then that insane overtime touchdown to get us that cover.

So we know fortunate we were. But I look at this Rams team, it's just aren't. the better team. I don't really get the line moving here where it's like I get it to us desperate the Rams not going to be as desperate this Miami team coming off divisional game but Evan has a bunch of trends of point two. It's actually nice to play this Rams team after that divisional game. McVeigh 11 and 7 against a spread after playing divisional games after a win and you know this is another match above this this Miami's defense is terrible like who like Rams he's going to shut down Cooper Cup

for Puka, I don't think so. Like I don't think he's the same guy we think of in the past. And we know their run defenses struggled as well. So maybe their view of it is this is a shootout and that's why they took the two and a half. And it's like Miami's gonna be able to stay in this game. But I still think their offense is off. And yeah, two had that great last drive against the bills. But overall in that game didn't really feel like that was the Miami team of old, right?

That feels like they were lucky to be in that game against the bills. So I have no issue. on here, but there's clearly a blind spot here. I just maybe love this Rams team too much and that the professionals are making a good review here on taking the Rams. I mean, taking Miami, especially at plus two and a half. Simon, you and I, we're in the Foxhole. You know me, regards to what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. I'm with you on the Rams. I love the Rams. I like the Rams not because of Cooper Cup and Pooka Nuku and Matthew Stafford. I love him because of Kyron Williams. And I love him

because Sean McVeigh run so much motion. And at the end of the day, he's a coach who just wants to run the ball up the middle. And in Kyron Williams, he's got a guy who's gaining four or five, six yards per carry against a Miami Dolphins defense that isn't very good. And to your point about the Dolphins offense against the bills, that was a Devin H.N. drive that got them into that game and tied them in that game against the bill. So I like everything you're saying here. I like it even more that we're getting a much lower number. Getting great value now on the Rams at this point. Great value on the Rams.

Like, I could see the Rams making it in here into the contest for sure. I could see them getting in there for me over Detroit, possibly over the Broncos if the line is seven and a half. We'll see. We'll see. That's exciting. I felt good about all of them today, though. I really did. Each week, Simon, we give out a two-team moneyline underdog Parlay, Bet365, boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all week and long under both game pages.

And remember, both games will be eligible for Bet365's early payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win if your team takes a 17-point lead, even if they lose. I've benefited from this no-sweat moneyline offer. to bet this. Bet it at Bet365. This week's boosted parlay is, um, but-da-dam, stealers and Colts. Find the boost under either the Steelers or Colts. Game pages on Bet365. Let's talk about our money line underdog round robin. We'll come a payday. Hallelujah. What a payday. There will come a payday someday, someday. There will come a payday. These are my entries.

There will come a payday someday. These are my entries. Tell me if you feel differently. Ready? Mm-hmm. Steelers. Yep. Saints.

Yep. Colts? Yeah. Texans? I'm going to disagree. Gimmie. Give me. Give me.

Um, how do we not go? I mean, I know this is, we just talked about it, but how do we not go Cowboys? Interesting. Like I want to know the big one. We've seen some of these big spreads come through. It feels like this is the type of game that no one sees coming and, uh, the Eagles Polpo Opso. Right now on the Action Network app, less than 9% of the money and the bets right now in

the Cowboys money line. So this is definitely no, no one's going to be joining us here unless they listen to this show. who's your fifth I want to do the Jags that's clearly gone now that Mac Jones is going to be the starter I had it on the list and I took it off because of Trevor

yeah I mean those who don't know Trevor Lawrence is out it's going to be Mac Jones starting for the Jags against the Vikings I want to do the Panthers

but I talked about I don't do international games on the dog so that that's unfortunate because that number is now up to plus 240 on their money line the Carolina Panthers which is in insane that it's got up that high.

I'm taking the cheap way out, Chad. I was going to throw the jets in. I mean, right now they're minus. They're even money, basically. And that technically works for a money line around Robin. All right. I was going to say we can do the jets or like, we could also do the dolphins.

No, don't do it to me. Yes, the biggest one is if the Cowboys come through, that would be, you basically just need to go two for three on this thing to get money because that's how big of a dog right now the Cowboys are. at who are your biggest bets right now? Yeah, right off the top. Pittsburgh plus three, if you can still find it, love it.

I've seen the Giants at five and a half. It's gone. So now that's not going to be one of my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half. Colts right now, them in Pittsburgh, I would say my two biggest lines on waiting on Detroit. That's going to be my bigger bets,

depending on who's healthy for Houston. Rams will probably get up there because it is the Monday night game. And then obviously we just talked about it. this 49ers team at five and a half, six, even then McAfri gets cleared and he's good to go. Even at six and a half, I would still be printing this pretty heavy on Sunday. So as long as it's below seven for that 49ers game, I really love that matchup this week. Biggest bets. Colts, Steelers, Rams, waiting on Detroit, waiting on San Francisco.

When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play. Shrewlett. Simon, you're six and three in Scoot Trulette. I am not. Who is your truette pick? I have two listed in the script.

I am hoping you don't choose either of those. I will choose the opposite if you do. I mean, I want to go Colts or Pittsburgh, but I feel like I need to trust my brethren on my big miss this week. And I'll go with the Jets, minus one, or plus one, Wow, you're getting bullied into a scooch roulette pick. Well, I want to give out something that I already haven't given out.

So I'm hoping people, maybe this pushes them over the edge to take this Jets number here and trust the professionals. My choices were between San Francisco and the Colts and I'm going with the Colts. I mean, I'm going with the Niners. I'm going with the Niners. The only reason I said Colts is because that's the first team name that I saw when I was in the script, but I'm going with the Niners. All right, Scoot Roulette, you're on the Jets, I'm on the Niners.

Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams, make us feel better about everything we've said, please. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. You guys going back and forth on which picture liking, which picture throwing away, this is just going to be so much fun. But on the tip of the tongue right now is Mack Jones. So I did look up a few things as I was kind of doing things on my own here.

Mac Jones, three and 15 against a spread as an underdog in his last 18 starts. Now that line is up to about six and a half right now. And I was trying to get a good comp for Mac Jones. So since 2022, he has the EPA per play of Josh Dobbs. He has the completion percentage over expected of Bryce Young. And he has the success rate of Haleb Williams. I'm sorry. But that is actually what it is.

And I apologize for that. Okay. Let's go into a few. That was a low blow. I honestly, when I saw it on the score, screen, I was like, oh, well, this is exactly what has to happen, but I apologize. Tomlin as a dog. We understand that. We've heard that millions of times. I took another layer into it, which I thought was kind of interesting. Let the greatest of all time look at your work.

So how does he do against stopping elite offenses? He is 21, 15 and 1 against the spread, 58% versus opponents averaging 28 plus points per game. When he's a dog in that spot, he's 14 and 7 against the number. And because I was curious, even without Big Ben, that's still 4, 2, and 1 against the spread because I know a lot of those numbers are juice because of it. So kind of interesting. You guys have been flip-flopping back and forth a little bit with that Eagles Dallas line, a little scared of what's going on. If you do land on Dallas, this is probably the reason why you'll get the cover.

So last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and leads by 10 plus points at any point in the game, they are still just five, six, and two against the spread. They are the only team in the NFL below 500 ATS in that spot after leading by 10 points as a favorite. So something usually happens. They make a dumb mistake. Dallas gets back in the game. See what happens. And I'll leave you with one more. This is simply just a numbers play at four, because I knew you guys were interested in Indy. Trying to figure out a reason why Indy might cover this game isn't exactly easy when they don't do a lot of the things right that Buffalo does. But let's just put it this way. Indies played 11 straight games decided by one score. Indies played

16 straight home games where the line is under four either way. So three or less either side, 16 straight. They've played six in a row at home one score, 12 of 16 one score. So at four, it's a very, very valuable number. I don't think there's anyone's going to tell you differently. And I know Chad's going to be like, this doesn't matter, but I did find it interesting. Historically, Indy isn't the easiest place to play for good teams. 66 plus win percentage, going into Indy, culture 30, 15, and 1 against the spread last 20 years

and 3 and 0 against the spread last three seasons. So kind of working both ways, difficult place to play. That's a situation, fellas. I mean, look, I'm going to take it because it's confirmation bias, but really historical context for teams. Who cares?

Correct. Correct. But I liked it and I added it. And I knew I get that feedback and I love it. Everything about that eagle stat just says, wow, is Nick Siriani a terrible in-game coach? Like, that is. That is, that's honestly what we're betting on. We hate Mike McCarthy. We don't think he's very good either, and he doesn't have any players right now, but we're really betting against Nick Siriani being able to make the right decisions

as the game goes on if they have a big lead. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus. when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, and place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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