The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 12

Episode Date: November 21, 2024

With Thanksgiving's bountiful NFL spread just one week away, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk all things betting for NFL Week 12. Together they go through a sea of underdogs worth investing in, along with their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more.  To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now! And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume  #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio, joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional. better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing, brother? I'm ready. I'm ready. I think there are some really ugly, ugly games. I don't know about you. You said on Tuesday you were feeling good about

this week. It took me until about 2 p.m. yesterday to find real clarity and start to get comfortable with some of these games because they are so ugly. We had a long chat about the Chiefs, his big favorites over the Panthers this week, and I just wanted to put some stuff in context. We're going to talk more about that game. You mentioned that double-digit faves are 5-0 this season against the spread.

Evan confirmed that in his excellent, excellent trends piece this week, double-digit faves, 5-0 this year. The first time they had been undefeated, not just against the spread, undefeated as winners this late in the year in 20 seasons and only the second time in the past 40 seasons. But if you want to know how extraordinary it is that the double-digit favorites are undefeated against the spread, you have to go back to 1950. That is the last time double-digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through week 11.

If you need some context for this, I thought you'd appreciate this as a professional. better and a connoisseur of history, all things betting. In 1950, Simon, the point spread was less than a decade old. It was invented in the early 1940s by a math, genius, and traitor in Chicago named Charles McNeil because all the stuff that makes people happiest comes from Chicago, deep dish pizza, Chicago-style hot dogs and the point spread. That's the list. I thought you were going to do the Darren Revelle and be like,

the number one movie and the number one song played when this happened. Today is our NFL Week 12 Best Best. Episode, Simon and I are going to narrow down our five picks in favorites, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Go ahead, sign up now. You can still win the weekly prize as favorites. Thatactionnetwork.com. We're going to get to the foxhole.

We're going to give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bed of the Week. which won last week, by the way, we're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets or boosted money line underdog Parlay, the underdog Ron Robin and so much more. Betts are rolling in, lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss, Colin Coward likes to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5.

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gambling problem called 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. As always, Thursdays during the season, we're going to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversations, we are moving lines. My good friend Simon Hunter, that's why they feel compelled to weigh in on our decisions. So, Simon, let's get to it. Sharp calls. Hello, who's there?

I'm talking. Ring, ring. Telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, let's start with the Thursday night. As fans of this show know, we felt like we had to take the Browns, and we kind of felt like we were following the professionals here. Nothing's changed, right? It's been really professional, heavy.

It's pros versus shows. It's really heavy for the public on the Pittsburgh side. Professionals have come in. Even when this number's ticked up to plus four, you've seen it come crashing right back down at plus three and a half. So the books, the professionals, they've kind of draw a line in the sand here, and they do think this is an upset. And then Evans article came out and you saw what I sold.

All that info about Tomlin on these Thursday night games against divisional opponents. So I didn't really understand where they're coming from. Now it starts to make sense. Then you add in that we have some bad weather coming in. So yeah, this went from being everyone thinking this is going to be a boring Pittsburgh blowing this team out kind of game to, is Cleveland had actually a shot to win this game out right? So that's a really fun game. Let's get into the big dogs.

The professionals, they love the Colts this week. They love the Panthers. And a couple guys shockingly like the Titans now. The Titans is the smallest one. I would say the other ones, guys are better and more confident. Guys are kind of playing this Titan spot because of the number. And the fact that this team is one in nine against the spread, right? Like eventually the book is going to catch up to it, give you extra points.

Same goes to that Houston team, right? I think that's the view of it. CJ's a different guy as a big favorite. We've seen him be so much better and consistent as an underdog. So those are a couple of interesting games that we're going to dive into. For games we love, the pros love with us. Rams, that's when we'll spend a bunch of time on Chargers, not that shocking. They love your Arizona Cardinals pick.

We've seen that number flip-flopping, right? We've seen that get up, they've got up to minus one and a half at a couple of books, Arizona. So that lines were moving like crazy. Now, this is the game me and you really haven't touched on, Denver. Like I've talked to a lot of really sharp groups that love this Denver number. And they've taken this number from opening of three all the way up to six now, chat. So that's a game that like if we're going to force in a favorite, maybe I can convince you on that Denver team because it's a good matcher for them. Defensively, offensively, I get where they're coming from.

And I agree that at five and a half, if you can still get in contest or in your pickpool, I take that value. That's a really good number on that Denver team. And then a game that means you spend a little time. Not much though was the 49ers Green Bay. Our whole issue was, okay, Brock Purdy is missing practices. This is a big deal. That to me would make me want to take Green Bay if they're obviously going to play back up.

Pretty practice, no problem yesterday, apparently. Same goes with Kiddle, who we talked about how important he is to that offense. So we've seen the money come in now on that 49ers team. Now it's down to one and a half. So a couple guys I talked to that are pretty smart. They were ahead of it.

They got the two and a half. I was going to be on the other side but Chad knows on something that I wanted to be on the 49er so I'm happy to come back on this 49ers team. That's the position I wanted to be on it was all about if Purdy was going to play. He seems like he's good to go. This seems like a really nice spot to back

this 49ers team. So yeah, the professionals Chad, they're betting big on the dogs this week and I think this is kind of the spot either the public's going to be I have a ton of money in their pocket heading to Thanksgiving or they're going to be chasing pretty hard

come that Thanksgiving three-day game slate. Look, I'm glad to hear all this because obviously I'm having different conversations than you and a lot of my work between Tuesday and Thursday is hunkering down, researching, looking at advanced analytics, seeing if I can find an edge across any of the things that we look at from success rate to, you know, EPA, et cetera. I was starting to feel so much better about some of these teams. The Niners are an interesting one, and I think that's sort of a tipping point game for us.

I'm excited to get to that. We're going to dig into all of it. Before we do, reminder, our latest free, free favorites, podcast, watch party is happening in a few weeks. December 12th. That is a Thursday, December 12th in Simon Hunter's hometown of Philadelphia right there in Center City, folks. We're going to the Wicked Wolf. I hear it's a banging spot.

A lot of people have said to me, oh, I love that place. We're going to have free drinks. It's going to be a live Q&A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell is going to be there too. We're all going to hang out. We're going to sweat and bet and enjoy the Thursday night football. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. We're going to go and attack much.

We will not go gently. We're going to unleash hell here in December because we have to because that's what's required. You must RSVP. Space will be limited to RSVP. Check out the link in the podcast description page or the YouTube episode description. Simon and I will tweet it out as well. RSVPs are coming in. Do not delay.

I've gotten a lot of requests from people to start putting more stuff on threads. I joined threads last night. Milman C. Go ahead and follow me. I posted a link to the RSVP in my threads feed. I'll do the episode. I'll do the RSVP there as well. Not abandoning X.

I'm just saying I'm adding threads, getting a lot of requests for threads content. So we're going to put it all in there. Again, RSVP, join me, Simon Matt Mitchell. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. All right. Let's get rolling. Simon, right now we're starting with Kansas City of Carolina.

We have assiduously, that's right, I said it assiduously, big word, avoided the Carolina Panthers since they basically turned our podcast audience against us after about three weeks. We have avoided them all season long. They are 11 point underdogs. I think it's going to go higher. I wanted to put this on the list just so we could officially dismiss. miss it and so I can refer to Evans double-digit stats off the top I think it's time to fade those stats and I'm not afraid of the Panthers here it's fair and I don't want to move on too quick did

did you say banging is that in your vocabulary you said that they had banging food at the the bar we're going to I said it's a bangin spot I don't even know what just happened I can't believe that's that's part of your 90s lingo I love it yeah do you know how I am so hip I'm so cool I'm banging. I'm banging, dude. You just said it, it just kept the moving. I was like, oh my God, I can't let this keep going. Yeah.

Panthers are banging this week. How do we want to do you? I don't know how you see me, but the way I see myself, very hip to the trends. I don't know about that. I only had to look up pink tote lid moment once today. Yeah, this Panthers team, it's what you're just talking about. We're just playing the number, right? Try not to overthink it.

I talked about I have this at eight, eight and a half. We're getting a ton of value here. It doesn't feel good, Chad. I think you're in the same boat as me, where it's like, I think we have PTSD from betting this Carolina team, but it's really all about playing this number. We've seen it before with Mahomes. The public drives these numbers up,

and that's why he is 03 and 1 as a 10-point favorite or more. And it's because the public drives the number up. The books have no issue pushing it to its limit. because they know that this is going to be the number one T's game on the number one Moneyline Parlay game, all of that. So you're right. I'm trying to think it will take the value. At 10 and a half, I was already committed.

Now it's up to 11 again, 11 and a half. How do we not take that, Chad? So to me, it's really about the number, the matchup to this Panthers team, you know, as bad as they've been, we've seen these last couple weeks that Bryce Young's found a little bit of confidence, and he is pushing the ball at downfield, and that, you know, as great as this Kansas City team is against the run,

we know that the Panthers, they'll find a way to run the ball. That's just what they've done all season. So I was hoping we would avoid this one. But now that we sit here on Thursday, it feels like this is going to be one of our five. It's just too good of a number, too good of a spot to pass on this Panthers team. Well, here's our challenge. And by the way, we're in the Foxhole. You know, me regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy.

I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. And we're not in the foxhole against the professional betters here. We're in the foxhole against our listeners. I hate to say it, but we are because I can feel the revolt. I can get my threads feed just blowing up with feedback about the Panthers. But yeah, this is just how we play the game.

And look, there's three fewer games this week, right? So there's not as many options. And all of these games, like there are a lot of ugly dogs and there aren't the obvious favorite spots like we've had in the past. The numbers say you've got to take the Panthers here. So if we're going to play, let's play like we're supposed to. We're taking the Panthers. I think it's going to be in the contest.

I hate doing it to people. But if you want to be with us, if you want to jump in the foxhole with me and Simon, look, we're going to buy you free drinks in Philly. So if it doesn't work out, at least you're getting that from us. Minnesota at Chicago, bears are three and a half point underdogs. This has been a weird game. Like, it says play the home dog with a defense whose strengths match up to the fading QB's weaknesses. The trends say fade the road favorite with a win percent or 75 percent or more.

It's 43 percent. The past decade, I just can't get there. Like, I think I think Caleb Williams going against. Brian Flores for the first time is a real X factor here that is not being considered in all sort of bet the number blind metrics that we see. And I know Sam Darnold is fading. Like I'm not a fan of San Darnold. We've been looking for ways to fade him the past few weeks. But I got huge, huge concerns and numbers to back it up with Brian Flores against Caleb Williams. Yeah. I'll take the coward, right. I'm still taking the plus three and a half. But I definitely feel more.

confident taking the under in this game. Like I'd rather take that than to take this number, especially because we talked about it. This number's moved a ton. At four and a half, I honestly would feel pretty good taking this number, just because I do think it's going to be a low scoring, really close game. And as much you want to knock this Barry's team of Caleb Williams,

all of his games, for the most part, he plays pretty close. Like, it feels like they're always in these games and they're in these tight games. And, you know, as much you want to bash this Barry's team, it's the defense that's kept them in a lot of these games as well. Like they've kept them in a really close matchup. So I like both defenses in this game. Like both them match up well for the offense on the other side.

Your hesitation is warranted. Like we know the deal. You guys can't block anyone in the Bears. And now you have a team that can just throw a ton of different looks and blitz packages. It's not ideal for Caleb Williams. So I'm with you. I coming into this week, I really was loving this spot now as we've gone along.

It's like I still like it. I just prefer the under more. so I'm happy to pass on this one. I'm making one of our five. You know, it's interesting, and I'm glad to hear you sort of found a different perspective. I was afraid you were going to try to bully me into taking the bears. And I just didn't get the love.

I got the love for the bears at five and four and a half, but still hearing about it at three and a half is confusing to me. We got a one-game sample size of the bears, you know, with a new offensive coordinator and trying to be a little more vertical and most importantly, Caleb getting one of the ball in two seconds, two and a half seconds instead of holding onto it forever. The Packers are just not the same defense as the Vikings. And here's a stat I stole from Evan in his excellent piece

about the trends in betting this week. When Caleb Williams faces a defense with a sack percentage of 2% or higher, and that's basically when the opponent's percentage of plays that end as a sack while on. defense. That's how you calculate sack percentage. He's 1 and 6 straight up, scoring less than 20 points in six of the seven games. The Viking sacks percentage, sack percentage, five and a half percent. I just feel like they're going to do so many things that confuse him to fuddle him, make him hold the ball, they'll drop back into

coverage and still get pressure. I don't like it. I don't like him a little bit. I want you to talk me off a game. New England at Miami. Sharp money has moved this from seven and a half to seven. So you've lost the hook. But this feels like a classic eye test versus a numbers game to me. Like we watch a lot of Patriots games because we're either betting on them or betting against them the past few weeks. And we've watched the past couple of games with Tua and the dolphins.

And when I look at these games with Tua especially, I think the Rams beat themselves. against Tua. The Raiders game, this was a five-point game with three and a half minutes left. Okay? And the Raiders were a defensive pass interference away

from getting the ball back and having a chance to win that game. They get a bad call. The game sort of gets blown open with a couple of freakish plays. But they were five points out of that game with three and a half minutes left. And I think the Pats are gamers.

I think Drake May is a gamer. I think their biggest detriment is they have a coach who's just way too conservative and puts them in bad spots where you don't get the opportunity to cover as much. But I want to bet the Pats. Yeah, it's another game that we're basically just trusting the number. You know, I haven't put a penny yet or anything on this money line of this Patriot team. I thought by this point I would just because he just nailed it. Like I don't really trust this Miami team.

When I really think about it, this Miami team is going to be able to score points. in his Patriots defense, especially at home and that kind of spot that just we've seen to it. He's a different player at home. And especially. Against bad teams. Yeah. But it's all about the number, brother. If it was seven and a half, I'd be more confident putting this in the contest.

I looked where he came on. It was six and a half. So it's like, exactly. There's no point if you can waste our time because we're not going to take it. So if you want to bet it with us, it's not one of my five or six bigger bets, but it's really, it's really about the number. Like seven and a half, Drake May against this Miami team. I feel like me and you have an opportunity for a back door.

At six and a half, obviously there's no value there. I don't want to force that number in those. So, you know, we just talked about an ugly dog. I'd rather have been there, Carolina, because it's still a better number than this is. So that's what it's going to come down to. People are going to be like, why don't you guys end up having this one? It's just a bad number.

So I'm with you. I like this number, like the spot. Drake May, we've seen him be a difference maker for that offense, right? I don't know if it was you or someone else talked about, but like, you know, they have one of the worst past, past blocking offenses in all football, the Patriots. That's been good for Drake, man, because it makes him get outside the pocket,

and we've seen him really excel when he either runs the ball or pushes the ball downfield. Like, that seems to be what he's so great at is getting out and making the defense kind of move around unorthodoxed and throw the ball downfield. So, you know, me and you aren't scared of this Miami defense in any way. We know they have a couple guys who can rush a passer, but overall, they're just not that very good of a defense.

So it's seven and a half, too many points. I would still take that number if you can find it. What do you mean? You don't know if it was me or somebody else. Who else you listening to? Why would it, why would it not be me? Because I talked to like hundreds of people every week. I don't know if it was you that said that snapping or someone else.

It all melts together. Simon, I don't forget anything you say to me. I catalog it. I make a note. I put it in the script. I remember almost every encounter because they're all that special. and I feel like you're discounting what I'm saying in our relationship. So does that mean you did say it?

It's possible. Listen, I'm so old that you're surprised when I'm using the word bangin. How can I remember what I'm saying about Drake May on a Tuesday? Yeah. Drake May is banging. Tennessee at Houston. All right. There's a couple games on this board.

This in San Francisco that I feel like, are going to sneak their way in or could potentially as like scary bets. Like this line has moved all over since we discussed it. It was at eight. It got to eight and a half. Then it got to eight and a half. In some spots, now it's down to seven and a half. You were adamant.

The Texans were the side when we discussed it the other day. They are a massive, massive public play. Very chalky. 80% plus of the tickets on the tech and. Texans. And I would say in any other year, it's a no-brainer. We're betting the Titans. We're like not even hesitating. We're in. We're excited. We're optimistic. We feel like we got the sort of a bead on the right line here. But man, Will Levis, you know? And Evan's got some crazy stats. You just mentioned one of them. But, you know, give me your take here. What are we

thinking. Yeah, it's it's fair. Like professionals are bet in Tennessee because they're not that bad of a team, something you talked about every week. It's like they have a pretty good defense. They can run the ball pretty well. It's just they've had Willebbson, Mason, Mason Rudolph at the quarterback position this season. There's a reason that's why they're one and nine. So I don't disagree with the people. It's like I want to be on Tennessee. Who doesn't? They're, you're getting a bunch of free points because they're the only people betting them as professional betters. But I can't get there. I got no faith in this team, especially the 10th. Texans, we've seen it. They're, they're what, Evan, 10 and 1 or 9-1 first half against the spread?

Like, yeah, they come out, they come out fast, Chad. This Texans team, you know, there's a reason they have 10 covers in the first half. Like, they don't mess around. They're just a really well-coached team. Not only offensively, we've seen defensively. They just have some real gamer. So I know. I wanted to be on Tennessee. I want to get there, but I can't do it. Like, to me, it's just, it's still not enough points. but the professionals betting this makes sense, Chad. I'm someone that's been betting Tennessee I feel like for the last two, three weeks and it's just never getting there.

And even though I'm getting a ton of points, they somehow always forgot a way to shoot themselves on the foot. It's mainly because of the quarterbacks. They're just, the turnovers are such killer, especially on their own end of the field. So, yeah, I'd rather lose money this week on the Panthers than Tennessee. I tell you that much.

I totally agree with you. I can't decide if with the Panthers, I mean, with the Titans, and you make a great point about the Texans in the first half. If this game goes to form and the Texans are great in the first half, the Titans have been awful against the spread in the second half, essentially for the entirety of the Will Levis era, the past two calendar years, 7, 26, and 1 against the spread in the second half. This year, one and nine against the spread overall. the second time that's happened through 11 weeks in 30 years,

this is why you want to at least not bet on the Titans, forget about betting the Texans. The one thing I will say about the Titans, and this is reflected in the luck rankings, and we're going to have some luck rankings games in here. This is a big luck rankings under for anyone who's interested. They have been incredibly unlucky. And if you look even at the game last week, right,

where the Vikings covered. And we thought that, you know, we were anxious about a cover there. It's one of the reasons we didn't put in the contest. The Titans easily could have covered that game. And I talked about this on Tuesday. I'm sure you remember, Simon, cataloging everything I've ever said. Sam Darnold was kind of terrible in that game.

Got most of his yardage from three plays. Bad handoff led to a fumble. He fumbled. they recovered. The Vikings recovered. But the Titans had like multiple penalties that called back game changing plays. Is that luck?

Is that bad coaching? Were they bad calls? I just feel like they're incredibly unlucky. Is that enough to want to bet them? Put them in the contest? I don't think so. No. But they're like, they're barely on the outside looking in.

It could be time for that. trend to reverse. You know what I'm saying? Simon? Yes, sir. Are you ready for our big balls? Bed of the week. Presented by Tommy John.

If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. I know it because I'm wearing my Tommy Johns right now. Great games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest. Last week, we did something we've never done. We took the Detroit Lions as huge, huge double-digit favorites as are big balls better the week.

And it paid off. Paid off better than investing in a pair of Tommy John underwear. This week, we're fading the Detroit Lions as seven and a half point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. We talked about it on Tuesday. We got to choose between our baby. that's all this is we've been betting the lions we've been betting the colts we're going with the colts it doesn't matter if you have one ass cheek and three toes i will beat your ass what's in

your mind about this because we just talked about it right before we came out so we didn't get to you know dig deep on it we've heard from sharp calls that they're on the colts uh have you because on tuesday i felt like we were still 50 50 yeah this is a classic case of me getting bullied into a pick. I liked it, but it feels like every pro I know is just like, you guys are suckers if you don't take the Colts here. And you liked it. I can tell I kind of liked it. And then I read Evans article and it's like, okay. Now it's all coming together. When the trends back up what the professionals like and you can see how there is a game script, there is a way for this to be that type of game where we talked about Detroit. The eight hundreds and thing has not really

bit them, this is the type of game it does, right? In a game where, you know, they don't have that guy that can contain the outside. They don't have that athletic freak on the outside who's going to be able to match the speed of this Colts offense. Because we've seen Anthony Richardson, you know, sure, you can say it's a small sample, but they talked to him. They said to him, okay, you need to use your body more. We're no longer protecting you. You need to run the ball more. And that's when we're at our best. And, you know, last week in that game, he really did put it all in himself.

I mean, that was an incredible drive to end of the game to lead his team down the field and score that touchdown. And, you know, how do they keep building off of that? We don't know. But at seven and a half, I'm willing to pay for that insurance. It feels like we're getting a really good number here against a Detroit team that we joked.

I don't know when the peak value is going to be on this Detroit team, but this is getting pretty close to it. Like, we know. know that they beat up on bad teams they have done so this year me and you both love this colts team they're not a bad team and we've seen them just be different at home i think i'm almost positive they've covered it feels like every game at home this season like we've just been betting them at home and you know anthony richerson as much as people have doubted him this year he's one of the best covering quarterbacks in all of football like he's great to bet on he just

he finds a way to cover and you know even though me and chide been on the been on his side for a lot the season we feel like we've got lucky i mean especially that week one well you remember that cover against Houston with a two and a half. He's just been a covering machine. It's kind of just the way the public is doubting him. So the key number here is seven and a half. I've seen a couple of books already touch seven. Shop around, get that seven and a half.

I'm starting to really love this matchup, not just because of this offensive line, how they match up with this Detroit team. But not that we have major questions about the Detroit offense, but it kind of feels like they are due for some regression, right? It just, they can't keep being this high-powered offense every week. There's going to be teams that are going to give them problems. And, you know, I don't know if Gus Bradley's the guy defensively

that's going to figure out of how to shut down Jared Gough totally on this offense. But I think he won't know how to keep this close. He's a veteran D.C. He knows how to go against veteran quarterback. So, yeah, Chad. I really had a tough time of this one, talking to people, reading Evans' article, it's like, okay, I feel a little bit more confident now putting this one in just because I know the numbers do back up.

taking the seven and a half. So look, matchup point of view and number wise, this hits our Venn diagram. We love, we've talked about it all year. It's why we've been back in the Colts. We like their ability to run the ball for two reasons. One, it allows them to control the clock, lower the scoring, keep games closer, but also it's a way for them to wear down the opposing defense and able to work on the play action. And Anthony Richardson, he was really good last week. Like, you know, he completed a high percentage of his passes. He didn't make the same mistakes.

It was impressive. And it's not like the lions get pressure. So he shouldn't feel like he's going to be forced into making bad decisions as long as he sticks to the game plan that Shane Steichen is putting in front of him. So we like that matchup-wise. We also like Jared Goff playing against the zone. he's just, his numbers are significantly lower than when he's playing against man when he's nearly perfect. And the Colts play more zone than anybody else. You've referenced Evan's numbers

since 2015. Teams after winning by 35 points, 23, 34 and 1 against the spread. when they are favored by more than four points, that number goes down 2337 against the spread since 2003. Teams who are road favorites after being a double-digit favorite in any location, road or away, a road or home, have had struggles against the spread over the past decade, just 43% against the spread the following week, the past decade. last one from Evan.

In November or later, since 2003, there have been 40 games where a team is averaging 33 plus points per game with a 90 plus win percentage. Those teams are 32% against the spread in their next game, including 4, 16, and 1, 25% coming off of a double digit win. So all of a sudden we've got matchup and trends that are making us feel a lot better about the Indianapolis Colts. Yeah, we have good reason to be scared of this Detroit team, right? So there's everyone else that's bet in this number, but it's really all about what you just said. Trust in the number, trust in the maths, but then trusting the trends. It's like this is an unusual spot where we kind of need a back, and I feel bad for your Bears team up next week for that Thanksgiving game because it feels like

we're at the pie throw this one in the money line around Robin. We're hoping for the upset. And if they do, man, are they going to take it all out on that Bears team on Thanksgiving? Listen, I got to drive to Staten Island on Thanksgiving Day to help my mother-in-law pack up a house she's lived in for 56 years. Oh, God. She's moving. I am looking for, that's how much I don't want to watch the Bears Lions game is I will spend the majority of that game going through boxes in a garage. that have not been touched in 56 years.

That's what I'm choosing to do. Oh, man. What a terrible day. Simon, the NFL regular season stretch run is here. This year, give a gift that helps your loved ones stretch and run. The gift of Tommy John. Black Friday is next week. We need to start thinking about the people on our holiday gift lists, the men and women we love, those who deserve

the perfect gift and the confidence that comes only when you're fully supported. I feel fully supported under two circumstances when I'm with you, Simon, and when I'm wearing my Tommy John underwear, Simon, my brother. Why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season? Pretty simple, Chad. It's a gift that last. You nailed it, brother. This Black Friday sales has begun. So if you're looking to score your gifts early, go to Tommyjohn.com slash favorites for 30% off right now. Save 30% sitewide for Black Friday at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites.

That's 30% off for a limited time at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast.

podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was...

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human beings. potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with

the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the

triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12

and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player. they ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows.

Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reed. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball.

Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay. We touched on San Francisco at Green Bay. I'm still seeing twos out there. It has ticked down a bit from two and a half to two, and I think that. They started moving in the Niners direction yesterday after practice.

It got down to one and a half at some of the more public books. But I am seeing twos. I think we're both feeling a lot better about San Francisco right now. Yeah, I thought Purdue was really hurt because, like I said, he's just such a tough guy. I just never miss his practices. And I was like, okay, if he's going to miss a practice, this has to be a really serious shoulder injury. He was back out there last week, I mean yesterday. And he was passing.

Like that, I know it said online, he said it was limited, but. The fact that he's throwing and it's that shoulder, that's a big deal. Like it clearly there might be some discomfort there, but at least he's out there. And then we saw the big news that Kiddle guaranteed pretty much that he'll be back for this game. We know how important he is to that offense, not just as a run blocker, everything else here brings to that team. So, yeah, this is, I feel like we both agree on it. We just think the 49ers as bad as they've been. I still trust them more right now than this Green Bay team.

Like there's just something off with this Green Bay team. And at the end of the day, it's like, we were going to bet Green Bay just because there's going to be no priority. Now that we know it will be back, it's like, okay, this is a good matchup for a really desperate team from the 49ers. And the flip side, everything just feels a little off with this Green Bay team this season, right?

Even their defense, they've been heavy reliant on turnovers. Without turnovers, they're just not that good of a defense. We've kind of seen a play out this season. So Shanahan, you know, Evan had a great stat about him after losses in these kind of spots. Like he tends to bounce back. You know, this is really about the number as well. Like you just said, you're still able to get two.

Maybe for luck in our contest, we can get two and a half. That's such a great number in this matchup. That just feels like it's going to be really close down to the wire type of game. So the public, they're coming in heavy on this 49ers team, which is not shocking. I think most people are thinking the same way as me. So, you know, we got away with the last week, been a public dog. Maybe we'll get away with it this week. Yeah, look, we have had a hard time finding.

significant edges in this game because both teams have sort of not been able to be consistent and finish in the way we think they should finish, right? Obviously, we think the Niners should have blown out the Seahawks last week. They should have blown the doors off the place in Tampa. And in both games, they've really struggled. They've had a hard time all season long. They've had weird quirkiness, the losing their kicker. I think it was against the Cardinals that kept them from kicking field goals,

and that led to a fumble that lost them in that game. It's just a lot of injury, bad luck. This is the biggest luck rankings game of the week. There's no bigger difference between luck factors than the Niners who are basically at the bottom of the rankings and the Packers who are at the top. So when I saw that come out yesterday from Dr. Nick, I felt a lot more comfortable about taking the Niners. So that sort of put it over the ad for me.

Yeah, and it's a rare opportunity. This is the first game. I think in Purdy's regular season career, I can remember him being an underdog. I know when he played the Eagles, he was underdog in the playoffs when he got hurt. But Purdy, the books have respected him his whole career. I mean, I'll never forget.

When he first came in, me and Chad, I had to beg Chad to take him against Arizona. I think he was a minus four and a half favorite. it. And we were just like, I get where Chad's government was like, I'm unsure about it. It's like, no, we just played this spot. I think they rolled him in that first game. And then it's just been on the roll since then. So big deal, the fact that the books have made this dog. And Chad knows I viewed this that this was going to flip just because of that. Like I thought the public would come in. The books would respect it and they would move it to being him being a favorite by Sunday.

Still could happen. So it's another thing where it's like, I want to play this number because I can still see this flipping. Once we know all the guys are healthy for this 49ers team. So yeah, Chad, I'm right there with you. If you can grab the two right now, I'd grab it. This is a little bit of foreshadowing. I just wonder if it's worth playing the money line. Like if it's already down to, if it, by the time we get off the show, which is live and these numbers move fast when we're talking, if it's at one and a half or one, I might just play the Niners on the money line. That's fair.

Arizona at Seattle. This game has gone crazy like a kid at a bouncy house. Cars plus one, cars minus one, cars plus. one, now is minus one again. You mentioned it in sharp calls. This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the Cardinals a plus one and a half. You said you saw it at two some places. This was my exact decision. I believe you like it too. Do we like it enough to make it one of our final five? Yeah. Honestly, I thought I would break on this one, chat. I really did. I thought I would make it so we wouldn't take this one. Evan had something amazing in his article that I know you had to have

seen it. So Gino Smith, we talked about his struggles this year, especially at home and his career. So since the beginning of last season, Gino Smith is 310 ATS at home, the worst mark of any quarterback in football. Did you see who his three covers were against? It was against, Skyler Thompson, John Dobbs, and Annie Dalton. Yeah. What are we doing here? Can we not overthink this one for once in our lives? No, I'm there. I know. We're going to live with the consequences that sucks because we both have a little weird feeling about this Arizona when it feels too easy. A little trapish, but once I saw that, it's just like, when we were back in Cleveland as a dog, they end up as the favorite and we still take them because we feel like we're getting,

you know, a good number at plus half a point. That's, honestly, that's what's in the back of my head right now. And they were coming off a buy. Are you kidding me? I know. So it's just, it really is to me about this Arizona team's been ascending. They've been playing so well. It would burn us, right? If they had a let down game. here, but I think Gino is going to make it so we're not going to have a letdown game. He's just been horrible at home. He just has not live up to the moments at home. And that's reflective of this season.

They're one to five against the spread at home this season. That's not the Seahawks we're used to. I mean, the last 20 years, you could always count on them as bad as they would go through their up and downs. You could always count on them at home. Those days are long gone. So yeah, Chad, maybe we're walking into it. Maybe there's other games you like more and this won't be one of our five.

But as we sit here right now, it's like if we have to force one in, I'm okay with us putting Arizona. Even though it is a little fishy here. It's just like, man, you can't deny that this guy struggled against good quarterbacks. And as much as people want to deny it, Kyler Murray is playing like a top five, top six quarterback right now. Like he has been bawling out.

So, yeah, it just feels like a nice number in a nice spot. Well, look, we have five games on the list right now. And I know we don't want to put the Titans on there, but we like the Panthers, Titans, Colts, San Francisco. Arizona. The last game, we have two more games to discuss. And Philadelphia at the Rams, the Rams are three-point dogs. This has been bouncing around.

I love the Eagles here. And you love the Rams. And this was your Simon says. And I just don't get it. Like, this Eagles defense is legit. They've gone from 27th in the league in EPA Loud. to number one the past since week five. Like they have a really good defensive secondary.

The Rams have been entirely inconsistent. We have been on the Rams the past three weeks. I feel like we've gotten away with it last week. We got burned the week before. They make too many mistakes. Something is inconsistent about the way they're playing this offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball as effectively as they had been able to do. that opens up their passing game.

I just don't get it. I don't get why the Eagles aren't at the play here. I'm surprised that you're not with me on this. Been around the block, Chad. Been around a long time to know better than the step into this trap. This is a fishy game with a fishy line. I just think people are undervaluing this Rams team

while they're overvaluing this Eagles team. Now, Chad says that this team has turned it around. Okay, let's start from the top. They lost 16 to 33. to Tampa this Eagles team. Then they went on a buy-a-week, and we all agree. Whatever happened with fangs and that defense, all these young guys, they've been better since that by-week. They came out, they beat Cleveland 20 to 16. They didn't cover. That was the game they easily could have lost. The next week, they blow out the Giants. Okay, earned that win. Next week,

they dominate that Cincinnati team. That's another game we respect they deserve that win. Then they had that weird game with the Jaguars, which they almost lost once again. Okay. That's what I'm trying to make a point here of like they're up and down they're inconsistent this team this season and then Dallas once again they blew them out and then Washington That was kind of a felt like a lucky game to them right Jane Daniels He just was not himself in that game was not hitting throws that guys were open like he had guys open he just was not making the throws against that Eagles team So as good as this Eagles team has been I don't think they're not the lines like this is not some juggernaut team that doesn't have some some major issues like this to me is a a team that has been fortunate, a little bit of lucky, and just overrated right now.

Like, this should be a pick. This is, the number is just moved too much to me. That's why I don't like it where Sunday night I was blind to it because I kind of had the same thought of view of like, this Eagles team is way better. Like they're better than this Rams team. They are consistent offensively. They actually have guys that can get stops defensively. But then when you really look at it, it's like, you know what?

This Rams team is not that bad. Like they're just like in my mind. They're just like this ego team. I mean, you could say they don't have the big names on defense. They've drafted really well. Like these last couple drafts have been great for this ramps. Oh, yeah. That D-line is actually pretty good.

And, you know, this matchup to me is going to come down to the quarterbacks. And I don't trust hurts right now, child. I'll be honest. There's just something a little off about him right now. So with me, this ramps team in this moment, I looked at Evans' trends. didn't make me too confident. Like I've seen Stafford has actually struggled as an underdog, especially since he's been in L.A.

But I don't know if you saw how bad hurts has been in night games on the road. He has not been good in his career on the road in these night games. So this is really about me, trust of the numbers, trust in the sports book. And this is why there are all these tall buildings built in Las Vegas, Chad. Like this is the definition of a trap game on Sunday night. That's the worst fucking cliche.

That's like what they say. That's what old people like me say. That's not a banging phrase. I've heard that phrase 30 times this week about this game. That's not one that gives me confidence. Everyone's going to be coming in with their grandma, I'm trying to get fat and rich off this Eagles team on Sunday night, and they're going to lose.

This is such a bad chase spot for the general public. All right. Look, I owe you one because we put Cleveland in last week, and you wanted to put the chargers, and that was the difference between three and two and four and one for us. So if you're going to feel strongly about it, I have already bet the Eagles aggressively here. And so if I'm going to have to eat one and you feel a lot better about the Rams than any other games, then we're probably going to have to put it in because that might be the last option.

Because the only other one on the list that, you know, is playable is Tennessee of the games that like. The other not, you love Tennessee. I'm not. That's what I'm saying. I'm not award Tennessee. Dude, I was just going to say the only other game that like. I know. You keep saying their name, though. Stop saying Tennessee. What is it? Like, Marvin Harris? Like, that we quasi agree on that, like, if there were no other

options you would be comfortable going with is Tennessee, which means you like the Rams, which means our five are going to end up being the Panthers, the Colts, the Niners, the Cardinals, and the Rams. And I'm going to have to bet against myself, because I've already aggressively bet with real dollars on the Eagles, which is fine. I'm sorry. I'm willing to eat it. I'm going to eat it. It's fine. Do we want to say anything about the Chargers and the Ravens? I feel like I could go either way on this. I kind of like the Chargers. I want it to be at three and a half, but I don't know that I like the Chargers better than Panthers Colts, Niners, or Cardinals. And I definitely don't think you like the Chargers better than you like the Rams.

No, it sucks. I wanted to be on the charges well, but at two and a half, it's like, I feel like that's where the value is and the Ravens with the general public. But yeah, this is, this feels like a game that maybe there's something I'm missing here because it's, it's also like, I don't really understand the movement here. I don't know why this number's come down so much. I get why the professionals are on, the charges at plus three. I just don't know why the books have moved off the plus three. It's just been all Ravens money. So maybe I'll, I'll just stay away from it or maybe I'll end up bed in the chargers once it comes Monday night the plus three. But yeah, I don't know. This is just a weird week where like I love all the

primetime dogs and that's really works out for me. So this is either going to be a really, really bad week for the general public or I'm actually, I'm going to get absolutely slaughtered. No, it's not. You know why? Because the first thing you said on Sunday, again, I remember everything you ever say. You said this upcoming week, it's going to be. going to be a bad week for the public. You said you love the lines. It feels that way. You love the games. I was having a hard time. You gave me some confidence. By the time I got to Wednesday afternoon, again, like two or three in the afternoon, I'm like, you know what? Some ugly numbers here, but that's an opportunity for us. We are, we are sussing out the opportunity. Now we need a favor,

Chad. What's going on to the Broncos? How do you feel about the Broncos five and a half? That feels trappy to me. Like, I know you're, You're saying wise guys like it, but it's a vision game. The Raiders keep finding ways to stick around and then blow it. But what if there's a week where they don't blow it, right? And so. That's a big what if. Yeah.

And I just, you know, I just. But you love dogs. Like you're also scared at Tommy DeVito. Something's wrong in your brain where you're like, eh, I think Tommy DeVito might be better for the Giants. And what fucking world is Tommy DeVito better for the Giants? I want to hammer the Giants of plus six so badly. I just do.

I mean, we have a favorite. We have the Cardinals. Depends where you're shopping, but that is true. Because there's still a bunch of plus ones out there. You know what I'm going to do? Let's put the Broncos on there. You and I will have to sort of narrow it down. And it might end up being on Sunday we want to move things around.

I don't think the Broncos are in our final five right now. I think the final five is probably Panthers, Colts, Niners, Cards, and Rams. What a five. What a five. Unbelievable. Our big balls is the Colts. Our foxhole is the Panthers. Our boosted money line underdog parlay.

Each week we give out a two-team money-line dog parlay. Bet365 is going to boost those odds and highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages. Remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo where your moneyline pick gets marked as a win if either team takes a 17-point lead, even if they lose. If you want to bet this, bet it at Bet365. The boost did parlay. 49ers and Rams.

I feel like I'm getting bullied. He just undressed him all the way around. Look at that. He just got it handed to him. 49ers and Rams. Find the boost under either the 49ers or Rams game pages on Bet365. A reminder, quick programming note. Next week is Thanksgiving.

We do not do a Thursday episode on Thanksgiving. Obviously, I won't be around because I'll be packing up my mother-in-law's house in Staten Island. We will not have our normal Thursday episode. As is tradition, Simon and I will pack everything. All of our picks, all of our segments, the one mega spectacular episode on Tuesday at our normal time. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, a pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's

unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind.

Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves,

their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about Defying the Odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard

guys like Nasree. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get to flying. He running up the court licking his fingers while he got the bar like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up. Get your ass up and down the court and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Simon, what is our money line underdog round robin? There will come a payday. Hallelujah. What a payday. There will come a payday someday. Someday. There will come a pay day. Hallelujah.

What a pay day. There will come a pay day someday. Here were my suggestions. Are you ready? Yeah. San Francisco. The Colts. Love it.

Chicago. What else you got? Rams. Love it. New England. Love it. Oh, no way. Yeah, why not?

I love when there are big numbers like that. All right. Well, I just gave you four, so give me one more. Plus 310 paired with the Colts plus 320. If those hit, that's a great day day. That's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, Thanksgiving miracle right there. So give me one then. I got damn, Cardinals are minus 108 so I guess we can't do Cardinals. Yeah, New England,

Rams, San Francisco, Indy so far. And I mean, unfortunately, I guess we can't do Browns because it's two, not enough listeners will hear it. Yeah. Because that would definitely be a nice, like, I'm going to personally throw that one in. I mean, the only other one I can think of for us is the Chargers. They're plus 115. I guess we kind of have to. It's a tough week right now for the dog. So, yeah, I'll take that number. How about your biggest bet? Early here, definitely Rams plus three, chargers plus three. You know, for these big dogs getting pretty heavy at this point on this Colts team,

this Panthers team. So I would say as we sit here right now, my biggest bet is definitely that Rams in the 49ers where if you can get the two, to me, that's a big deal of this 49ers team. I just, I've been hitting this number just because I do think it's going to flip. You know, that's not to my biggest year of that 49ers one. So, yeah, the Colts one comes Sunday. That are the Rams, why not be my biggest bet? When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

Let's play Scooch Roulette. Simon, guess who won Scoot Roulette last week? Did you? He's got two thumbs and he says banging. I took Detroit, you took Kansas City. I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts in Scootts and Scoot roulette. I'll go the Rams just because Chad likes the Eagles so much.

I was going to take the Eagles and like I just couldn't do it to myself to have them in the contest and have to root for him for Scutroulette and have bet on him. All right, before we get out of here, let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams, the man we reference. So we should start setting a line on how often we reference Evan Abrams in our show. Maybe Matt Mitchell can set that. Take it away, Evan. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. Yeah, that was a really good segue.

of this, so let's head into this. Things can only go so right for so long. Teams to score 24 plus points in five straight games and are listed as a favorite are just 45% against the spread since 2003. When they've also won all five of those games, it's down to 42%. Yes, that includes Detroit, who is 41 and 15 against a sprint over the last three years. And yes, that also includes Philadelphia, who is 7 and 0 straight up with AJ Brown this year, scoring 30 points per game. you could say Detroit and Philly are pretty much banging right now. Going into the next one here, Carolina. And I know you guys are all over this,

so I had to kind of split this up and give you a different angle on it. So Patrick Mahomes has started 44 games as a road favorite in his career. When the home team scores less than 20, he's 11-0-2 against the spread as a road favorite. When they score 20 or more, he is just 9 and 22 against the spread. This bet is just about how many points can bright, down, get on the board, depending on the entire game. If he scores, you know, one touchdown, two touchdown,

Mahomes going to cover the game. So you might want to look into the team total on Carolina. That's another angle to kind of play there. And Chad, you had mentioned the Caleb Williams' sack stats. Well, I found a little bit more of a simpler one. It kind of says the same story. So at this point, a bet on Chicago is a bet on their offensive line. It's just as simple as that.

When Caleb gets sacked four plus times, they are 0. and four straight up, scoring 41 points in four total games. Three or less sacks, they're four and two straight up. More importantly, they're averaging 26.2 points per game and scoring 20 plus in five of those six games. Iber Fluse has faced a Flores defense twice. Chicago has scored 25 total points in those games, eight combined sacks. So it just depends on how Caleb can do in this one, but it's all about the sacks.

That is a great stat. Maybe we should be betting a sax prop in that game and avoiding avoiding the number altogether. Thank you, Evan Abrams. I think you're spot on when you reference the Detroit trends. I think you're pretty off when you're referencing the context of Philadelphia. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now, new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10.

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