The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

With the gambling hopes and dreams of the holiday season upon them, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk all things betting for NFL Week 14. Together they talk about a tricky spot for Mike Tomlin, the bottom of the market for the New York Jets, and a sea of underdogs worth investing in. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more.  To RSVP for the FREE Favorites Podcast LIVE event in downtown Philadelphia on December 12th, follow this link now! And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do.

Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or where you. you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend, and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports.

And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From IHeart Podcasts, Saigon. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam.

They're pouring patriots all over here. Freedom for Vietnam! There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to. going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network.

I am live from my Tommy John home studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, and my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, I got to share with you my past 17, 18, 20 hours because it's truly insane. I got a buddy. His name is Kenny Dichter.

Kenny is a serial, brilliant, enthusiastic, force of nature entrepreneur who is hyper-connected in sports, media business. is he started a company called Wheels Up, the private jet company, right? So I've gotten to know Kenny a little bit over the past couple of years. He's starting a new business called Real SLX, and it's all about taking his superpower, which is creating experiences and getting people involved in these once-in-a-lifetime experience at really big events.

The best experiences is the best experiences. And so, you know, he did something at the Super Bowl last year with Rayo's, probably one of the best Super Bowl events I've ever been to. Simon, you and I are going to be doing stuff there this year at the Super Bowl. So he called me on Monday. And he says, I got tickets to the Auburn Duke game, Wednesday night, Auburn number two, Duke number nine, Cooper Flag, all that. We're going to fly down, private Wednesday afternoon. We're going to have dinner. we're going to go to the game, we'll fly back that night.

How do you say no to that, right? In a million years, when would I be like, yeah, I'm going to go down to Durham, North Carolina, the day before a show, and I'm going to, you know, fly private, go to dinner and come back that night. But of course I said yes. You can't not say yes to that.

Dude, flew down, we land, we go to dinner, go to this place called Nanas in Durham, which was ridiculous. And then we get the game. There were about eight of us. Kenny had a bunch of tickets and a bunch of guys that I know and like a lot. Some guys who I've met through Kenny who work with Kenny, a buddy of mine, namely Fitting, who I used to work with the ESPN, now he runs content at WWE. The tickets were, no joke, first row baseline under the basket.

like feet on the floor talking to the ref during the breaks my kid sending me pictures of him seeing me on TV because every time a team is scoring the camera crosses my face it was truly insane and the game was off the hook like I've been to Cameron before it's it's a incredible experience I went to Duke UNC a couple of years ago with my younger son. And it was loud and crazy. And the Cameron crazy is really are truly insane. And it's a, it's a must-do experience for sports fans.

I was sitting next to this guy who's had these tickets for 30 years. He's a beer distributor who supplies Cameron and the football stadium. He was saying that that game last night was the loudest game he's ever heard. It was ear-splitting, how insane it was. Duke wins, great game, get back on the plane at midnight, no, get back on the plane at 1245, land in Westchester to get home at 4 a.m.

Now we're doing the show. It was, it was once in a lifetime, amazing. Chad Milman is proud of himself. Yeah, great game, cool night, I'm gonna tell a little bit. Still flying a little bit. But you know what, Simon, no work, no perks. We got to get to work because we got a lot to do today.

As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit, $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. whatever the moment, it's never ordinary, at bet three, six, five must be 21 or older, and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky.

Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. As always, on Thursdays during the season, we do like to hear otherwise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. that's how influential we are. The lines are moving based on our conversations. The pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do.

Sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Yeah, let's start off with a Thursday game. Shock to no one professionals like Green Bay. We've seen now that a couple of books have moved it up. then they get hit by other professionals who bump it right back up to three and a half so um it's obviously

a game that's split but so far to me it seems like it's more so um every pro i talk to lexis green bay sipher for exactly what we've talked about so um unfortunately it's another Thursday we love and i feel like we're going to nail can't put in the contest so um just just another good line though it's a three and a half i still think that's the key there um let's go to a game that you loved i loved and now we've seen this number move a ton, right? This Minnesota game. Every guy I talked to for good reason, likes the Vikings for what we really talked about, right?

It's a bad matchup for Kirk in that offense. We've seen now, too, Sam Darnold, as bad as he was, right, for those couple weeks stretches, he's kind of got into a bit of a groove. Yeah, I mean, he seems like he's comfortable again. So not shocking that, that number you gave it out, I think, at five, it's not up to six at a lot of books. So that's a game.

we'll definitely most likely end up with a contest. Yeah, the game that really jumped out to me was just because we were at the time on the other side was that Chief's game. Every pro I talked to right now it really likes the Chief's side. It's looking more and more like the Chargers is kind of the Joe Public side,

which isn't that shocking. Right now, I mean, you are on the public side on that bear side. Most pros I talk to have our view of it where this is a spot to take this 49ers team. So interesting here, your view on this game now, there were a couple days later. another one that we knew

the pros would be on, the Jets, mean, chat, I don't think it changes my opinion. I still like Miami. I think they're just just keep on chasing that same thing with this Jets team every week. Dude, I got so many, I can't wait to talk about that game.

And then obviously a game I love. The professionals, though, were pretty split on it, that Cleveland Brown Pittsburgh game. Oh, hit that horn, babe, let's dance. There's still a one book in Jersey or that has a seven, which is pretty shocking.

I really thought this would be six by today. But we get why they like Pittsburgh. No one's denying Pittsburgh is a much better team when they are at home against a Cleveland team with an inconsistent quarterback. But my argument to them is just this number is way too big for this type of divisional matchup. I don't know if you watch that AFC hard knocks.

This is like the perfect division to do the hard knocks on. Like it's just all of it was just so football. Like everything about it was so football. Just talking about how you kind of throw the records out in these teams and they're just so familiar with each other. So yeah, it's been a good year to back the dog in this division. I think the pros that are looking at this one are saying, well, it's got to go the other way at some point.

The favorites can't all not cover in this division this whole year. So a pretty interesting game there. And the last one, aside, I like, I like the bills that we knew that was going to be heavy public side. It's interesting to hear how many pros like the Rams here. And, you know, talk to a couple guys that I really respect. They went pretty heavy on the Rams of four and a half. The books that took that money moved it to three and a half. Now some other, you know, Bill's money has come back in, a couple of those books went back to four.

So, yeah, really, really split week with a couple of these games chat. Some pros just are betting the numbers here and other ones are just taking the value on they can on certain dogs. All right, well, good. I'm glad because all these games are the ones that we want to touch on. And, you know, when we get, for me, especially when we get into Wednesdays and do a little more research, the Bill's Rams game definitely stuck out. Chiefs Chargers definitely stuck out on second thoughts, especially deep into some research yesterday and then early this morning.

One final order of business before we get into the games. Reminder, our latest free favorites podcast watch party is happening. Gotta RSVP, folks. Thursday, December 12th, one week from today, we're going to be at the Wicked Wolf in center city, Philadelphia. We're going to do free drinks. We're going to do like a mini show. And so, you know, it's not a show

that we're going to be able to post. Simon and I are basically going to do what we do on the favorites. We're going to do it live. Matt Mitchell's going to be there. Evan Abrams is going to be there. We have so much freaking swag to give away. Favorite swag.

Tommy John swag. You know we love the Tommy John swag. It's going to be leading into the Thursday night. Football game between the Rams and the Niners. We're going to sweat to get. We're going to bet together. We're going to have a good time. Please, RSVP to the event. Check out the link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. RSVPs are pouring in. Don't delay. Sharpen our sword for the battle. Let's get Roland. Simon, I'm calling it right now. Miami minus six. We're in the foxhole. You know me regards to what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Clearly, we're in the foxhole. Taking the dolphins. as six point favorites.

This is the first time that the Jets have been underdogs since they played the bills, I think it was week six in the middle of October. That included closing his favorites against Houston, Arizona, Pittsburgh,

that game against Buffalo, the money was pouring in on the Jets. They closed as only one and a half point dogs against the bills. I don't get it. it. Like, it's a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile who now is going on, you know, McAfee and saying, we don't have anything to prove as if to say, I can't be held accountable

for the losses. I'm not doing it for you guys. You're a professional better. What is wrong with your brethren? Well, it is also model based. So it's, the model is not taking account that like you just said, everything is just so negative in that building right now. now and it shows up in the games right a lot of those games you know even when they have a lead they've been falling apart and it's just not the rogers of old like we talked about just he's incredibly inconsistent and um i think their view of it is just that this team every week is undervalued because of that in their model and that you know i'll be at first to admit it i got burned by this team coming to the season i overrated them simply because of the model like i had a high grade on them and

You know, it also screwed me with the 49ers because the 49ers just rolled them week one. It made me, in turn, overwrite the 49ers and think, well, this team and the jets, they'll bounce back against these bad teams. And they kind of did. And it made me think, okay, this is who I thought they were going to be. And then they fell off a total cliff, right? I mean, they literally have three wins at this point, like you just said. So I think that's the issue, chat, is that, you know, the professionals have loved them all year. They've lost a ton of money, and they're kind of chasing that money, it seems like, to me.

That's my view of it because I'm with you. I don't really understand the betting here and the market, but it's unfortunate that the books haven't shifted. Like I said, five and a half would have been amazing if they just would have gave us that number. But it seems like they're just going to hold here at this six right now with Miami. So I'm with you. I love this matchup for Miami, two at home, and this matchup against a defense that has struggled against the pass. And they've struggled against the run. That's what Miami wants to do as well.

They love to run the ball. That just opens up everything obviously downfield for the pass. And we've talked about, we've seen Miami now since Tua has been back, just beat up on these bad teams and even good teams, right? They've held into some games like that. I wish I had taken more from that Bill's game, went into it, drove down the field. It was like, that was a big moment for him on the road

against that Bill's team that I didn't give enough credit for it. And, I mean, we've seen they're just a different team they were early in the year. So I'm loving this as a flag, so I'd just like to be on this chess in the spot. I mean, Miami. Yeah, so since firing Robert Salah, the Jets are 31st and points allowed per possession. their last in EPA per play.

Sauce Gardner might not play this weekend. Not like he tackles when he does play. That team is in such disarray. Look, we're talking about it so much. We just may get burned. But Tua, in this spot, I mentioned this on Tuesday. Miami and Tua beat up on bad teams as favorites at home. Seven and one.

The Jets are a bad team, folks. there's just no two ways about it. So the big money will pour in on the Jets on Sunday. We've seen it every single Sunday for the reasons. Someone just said, you make a great point. We've talked about this a lot on the show. Like, rankings are hard to completely change in the middle of a season, right? It's going to happen.

It's like you titrate off of drugs, right? Like, you can't just go from 50 milligrams to zero milligrams. You've got to go from 50 to 40 to 4. 40 to 30 to 20 to 10. Like that's what happens with these rankings. And no one can go fast enough to catch up with how bad and sort of discombobulated the New York Jets are. Well, the fear is you over adjust.

Like obviously we talked about that. I mean, we took a beating back in the Panthers early in the year. But you're seeing why because of what this team can be when Bryce Young is what I thought he was going to be coming to the season, which is an open offense that have been a much better team. The biggest issue I've had, definitely personally this season has just been the adjustments to these bad teams are really bad, right? There's just some really poor coaching right now in the NFL and not adjusting enough to injuries,

right? This Carolina team, we should adjust some more around the year when they lost a lot of their defense. Like they had major injuries to their defense and I didn't adjust to it. So there are things like that, but like I said, you don't want to over adjust because we would have missed these last three weeks on this Panthers team, right? we would have totally been out on them if I had overadjusted their number and underrated the value. So the same thing is going to hear of this Jets team.

I just think guys are stubborn dug in on the exact number they have with this team. Well, you mentioned Carolina. Carolina is a 12.5 point dog at Philly. Like, it's an interesting week for us. I feel like there are a couple of games. And we're going to talk about the other one too. In years past, they are auto plays. Big number against a super-hyped team.

a team that we've been loving all year. Carolina's 12 and a half at Philly. And on Tuesday, we talked about it and we liked Carolina, like, or at least we're leaning that way. But we didn't go all in. We didn't like immediately bet it. You didn't call it as Simon says. The number had come down a little bit.

There are some trends that sort of back fading the hot team here. But I can't get there. Like as much as we love how Bryce Young has improved, Like, this is not the Saints or the Bucks or even the Chiefs, like with an underperforming secondary, an undermanned offense and a terrible right tackle and left tackle. Like, name me a defense you'd like to face less than the Eagles right now. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams are pro football focuses third and fourth highest rated defensive tackles rushing the passer. Zach Bond, the linebacker, he's the fifth highest rated player in coverage. not amongst linebackers, amongst all players.

And he's a freaking linebacker. Like the Eagles are given up 6.18 yards per pass attempt. And then the Panthers defense, while it's getting healthier, it's really just terrible against the run. Yeah. Like, you know, basically bottom three, and that's being generous. Like, if you average every overall number, Sequin could get 2,000 yards for the season by the end of this game.

He could have 500 yards. So I don't know. I think we want to bet the Panthers based on the number, but I feel like we're going to eat it. That's fair. Like just the off-the-field stuff, though, like the human side of it, where this is a game where they just played the Ravens,

and now they're playing against a three-and-nine Panthers team at home a week before they go and play a Pittsburgh team. Like this is such an in-between game where it's like... It's a rap spot. It really is. It doesn't get more trapped than this. That's another really glaring spot where I like it. The reason I didn't really bang your head about this one is because I wanted the 13

and I've been pissed off where like the professionals have kind of held it under the 13. Like the highest we're getting right now and most books is 12 and a half where it's like, you know, no one's take, like you just said, no one's taking Carolina. You think everyone in the world doesn't feel the same as you. The only people I know are obviously professionals taking this Carolina spot. And it's just it's such a spot to take him because of the NBA. and the fact that this offense, like you just said, okay, they're not the best team, obviously, defensively,

but we've seen a change offensively with the passing game. And as much I want to say how great this ego's defense is, they're young. I mean, they had, you know, they've had a couple injuries as well to this defense as well, Reed Branklin-Shipp, Brandon Graham, and a young defense that's feeling themselves right now where there were guys open.

I don't want to say Lamar lost that game last week. But he did miss open receivers. And their kicker, if he had made those kicks, it's a much different game, right, towards end there. Like, the Eagles, you know, they're up 14, 12, and then Justin Tucker missed that field goal, then when they shrewing up 1512, and then because you missed it, bang,

Eagles were down in the Red Zone, Sequin ran it in, and it's like, okay, totally different game now, right? It was 2112 at that point. So I do think this Eagles team is just a little overrated right now, where it's like, yes, are they very good? Are they, should they be said to be the best team to NFC right now? Yeah, because they're healthy, right?

Detroit's had so many injuries. I get the respect to them. I just think it's gone too far at this point. That's the whole point for me with this one where it's like the summer should be closer to 10. It's a nice in-between spot where you expect them not to overlook this panthers team, but how can they not, right? It's the human element of it where it's like you just took down the big bad wolf of the ravens like a team that Lamar and his whole career only lost one time to an NFC team and you smacked them. You're feeling good all week. You're home now against the Panthers. You're not going to look ahead to Pittsburgh where you know that's literally the last tough game when they're I mean Washington's tough obviously but that really is going to decide their one seed because

Detroit here if they dropped us to green bay and they got buffalo next week really quickly the eagles could become this one seat so yeah I feel like it's a lot to weigh on this young team of this Philadelphia so for all that chat that's the only reason I'm like okay maybe I'll convince you come Sunday they take this panthers team but it's really it's about the number it's like if if I'm not getting a great number here okay we want we don't have to put it in but If this is up to 13 and a half contest Sunday, Chad, I'm going to probably be an asshole and be like, we got to put this in, blah, blah, blah.

Yeah, by the way, I feel like the 13 was the line of demarcation for me, and I'm trying to be really disciplined as we head into the end of the year and not chase feelings and put them into numbers. Right. We miss the best of the number. 13 feels better to me. And we've talked about it so the number is not burned us this year. Well, the only number that have burned us are three and twos.

Look, it's been a really weird year where these big numbers have not mattered. Old habits die hard. And if there still be available. I'm just suggesting for this season, I agree with you. But for this season, it's just been twos and threes that have really mattered. Everything else, not so much. Look, it's funny you say that. Like, you can look in the action app and there's a really cool feature that tells you

your sort of performance against the closing line value and your ROI against the closing line value. and your ROI against the closing line value. And like, it comes into place so infrequently, but you still want it. Like, you don't want to buy high and sell low. You want to get the best of the number. You want to feel better on Sunday morning. I want to see in the app that I've got it at 13 and a half

and now it's a 12 and a half and all those kinds of things. I told you, stupid gambling is that when you lose a bet, you go, well, at least I had the best of the number. That's the main part of it. Yeah, by the way, I've never said that in my life. Yeah, right. When I lose a game, I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? Why did I even care about this number?

Why did I like race to bet this to beat the move when it didn't even matter? I don't disagree with anything you're saying. I feel skittish about, I think this Eagles team, and I felt this way last week, I think it's on an upward trajectory. I think their way they're playing minimizes their weaknesses, which is really Jalen Hertz is a passer. I think their defensive line is so good. that that minimizes the emotional up and down. Because when you're playing physical, you're playing physical, right?

That's not about what happens on the edge. And I think skill players, to me, are more inclined to be prone to emotional roller coaster mistakes than players of the defensive line. And their defensive line is just so good. So that's my fear. But look, we'll talk about it on Sunday. We'll see where we land. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. we created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a...

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. The morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses.

Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keir Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood,

pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Atlanta at Minnesota, this was my exact decision. I did it with clarity and confidence, if I recall. And as you know, as you've said, the wise guys are with me. It's moved up since the show. In fact, as the show is happening, it moved from five to five and a half.

It is a pros Joe split, tickets on the Falcons, money on Minnesota. I guess, as you noted, the public is buying into the very lazy, facile, Kirk Cousins, revenge, narrative. We disagree. Yeah, we know that it would, though. It's just it's the lows of hanging fruit and that's the easiest fruit to grab. So yeah, this one shocking to me because I really didn't think you'd get back to six,

especially where you were able to get four and a half when you were talking about on Tuesday. Like that's a great number now, especially now that it is touching six at a lot of books. And, you know, for me, this matchup, it's really all about, like we just said, the defense here where I do have faith now

in this Vikings offense as, Sam Donald's got more comfortable, but this defense, I just can't get it out of my head where it's like, isn't this the perfect match for them against Kirk? A guy they know in their style

is what gives him fits. It just feels like it's, that's the fear is it feels too easy, chat, because it's like five and a half still a lot of books. It feels like a gift like we always talk about

where it's like it's still below this key number of six, you know, them rolling them, blowing them out or this coming down to they're up 14 and Kirk gets the late touchdown and they get the two-pointer and it lands right on six.

That sounds about right. So that's why I think the number should be six. It's like that's where this game's going to go. So yeah, if you took, like I threw a little in Atlanta. I mean, there was one book that had the six last Sunday when we talked about it. Obviously, my bets have dwarfed that for this Minnesota side. If you were stubborn and you do like Atlanta, I would just wait. Like every pro I talked to is coming in on this Viking side for the most part.

So it's like if they're going to keep taking respected money, they'll keep bumping it up. And, you know, the public, they'll come in on their teasers, right? This is like this in Miami, it's going to be a big tease team. They're both at six. Everyone's going to take it down to a pick. That's just what people like to do on their teasers. So this could easily keep going up. So if you're like me and Chad, you like Minnesota, grab the five and a half while you still can if you haven't already.

Yeah. the things that Kirk Cousins struggles against the most pressure in the pocket are what the Vikings excel at, right? He's facing a defense that is fourth in Sacks, third in QB pressures, second in blitz rate, also the top ranked defense for rushing, fits and C, defending rushes inside the tackles, number two, outside the tackles. The most effective weapon the Falcons actually have right now isn't Kirk Cousins. isn't Drake London, definitely isn't Kyle Pitts, it's Bejean Robinson, playing like a pro bowler. But that also plays with the Viking strengths. And I think that the wise guys see what we see about Kirk

is how terrible he was against the Chargers when they really weren't getting any pressure and that unless he's playing the bucks, he's kind of having a terrible year. And so this is a, I am a little bit worried. It's funny, you know, I said I'm trying to, to be more disciplined. I'm also trying to be more disciplined with the bank roll. And I got this at five, but I didn't put, I know, I got it at five and a half. I didn't put a ton on it because I was kind

of hoping it would come down to five. And now I got to make a decision, do I just increase the amount of money I'm putting on it at a five and a half, which I'm going to because I wanted to get a little bit better number. I'm not going to get it. I'm going to have to live with the five and a half. Yeah, and with Kirk, I'll just say, whatever's going along, he has been awful these last three weeks, even after coming out of that bi-week. I mean, he, you know, no touchdowns. No touchdowns. Six picks. Six picks. Ticks. It's just been a disaster. And, you know, you think only, it's only the people in media saying Michael Pennix's name. Like, there's obviously going to be whispers in that locker room that someone they see every day in practice that apparently has looked

pretty good all year in practice and even coming to the year. Remember they sat him? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was the second week of August because there was obviously fear even then with Kirk coming back from this injury. And it's just different. Like he just does not have the step, he doesn't step into the throw, the same zip on the ball with everything that goes into it.

So yeah, Chad, this is one I can guarantee people is going to be in our contest, especially at five and a half. Well, look, if you're also watching Caleb Williams, the last three games really developing, If you've seen Jaden Daniels playing well, if you've seen Drake May balling, if you've seen Bo Nix playing like a pro, like truly developing, you're going to be like, if the rookie quarterbacks are this developed, then Michael Pennix is on that plane. We want to know, we want to see it, we want to take advantage of it.

And by the way, the next offensive coordinator head coach or quarterback who can figure out how to use Kyle Pitts might go into the Hall of Fame because he's now going through multiple. levels of coaches, quarterbacks, and coordinators who cannot figure out how to get them involved in the offense. Do you think we ever see any teams ever after Aaron Rogers and Kirk Cousins coming back from their Achilles, ever give money to a quarterback after the age of what, 35, 36 with a coming off in Achilles? Of course we will. We 100% will because everyone believes they can be the one to turn it around. Everyone's got a God complex. Everyone is hoping. Everyone is looking

conferred, the handrail on the roller coaster. Of course we're going to do it. There's not a question in my mind. Past glory will always remain. Chicago is San Francisco. It's interesting, you say, the bears are four-point dogs here, and a better number than we got on Tuesday. So the wise guy money has come in on the Niners.

We actually asked on Tuesday, is the value on the Niners? And you said that it's feeling very public. The Bears and the Seahawks are shaping up to be the biggest. public dogs of the week. If you're looking at the splits, 73% of the tickets on the Bears, 60% of the money on the Niners, like,

I think the Niners are in real trouble physically. And I still think I like the Bears. Yeah, I'm letting you kind of drive this boat here. I was just happy to sip this on out because it's like, I want to be with you on the Bears, but when I'm talking to every guy who's, You're saying exactly what I said, which is in my lifetime, this is a spot I hammer, this 49ers team.

Like this is always a spot I take this team, especially at this number. But my pause is what we talked about. The 49ers have so much bullshit going on off the field outside of their injuries. You know, the turmoil or the drama right now, I mean, their media falling along and seeing everything going on. The conversation is being had. Even Kyle Shannon's demeanor, it's like, this is the team that went to the Super Bowl last They just feel like everything's totally different this year.

Confidence is totally gone by Shanahan and Purdy. The biggest one to me is what me and you talk about, which is this Barry's team, it feels like they really fucking hated Iberthru. Like he's gone. Like the ding dong, the witch is dead. It seems like that to me is the biggest thing where it's like, are we reading too much into a betting too much on a team that we expect we'll come out here and play hard together as a unit and play for,

something where I still don't know what the frontiers are playing for people are like well they're playing for a playoff spot they've been playing for that all season like I hate that where it's like I don't think they have it in them like they just don't seem like they have a dog in the fight but yeah obviously we expect this is their last ditch effort this is going to be their everything game I get why the professionals are coming on the 49th side but I just can't get out of what we talked about how much it seemed like that bears team hated their head coach he's gone we've seen it before in these exact spots where teams just play hard for their interim coach. And I just don't think the bears are that bad.

Like I feel like they're no. No, like they really aren't like they have talent on both sides of the ball and we've kind of seen that play out this year where you know they have covered in what three four straight weeks and crazy back door. You could say fluky covers but it's what we talk about Caleb Williams. He's a guy that never gives up could push a ball downfield and you've seen that now after the Minnesota game where he came back and that game against Green Bay where he came back in that game against Detroit.

At the end of the day, those games they probably should have won, maybe it came down to the coaching. They've just been playing so much better these last couple weeks since 49ers team. So not going to let them bully us, Chad. I'll stick with you. I'll grab the plus four with Chicago. Yeah, I guess at the end of the day,

if we're talking about, we always like playing teams when they're dogs and they have a new coach. And that, we've seen that win consistently. saw that it happened again this year with New Orleans, right? And New Orleans has less talent than the Bears. I think there's a lightness in that locker room and relief for that team and joy. They'll just play with, you know, unabandoned joy knowing that they don't have to worry about

earber flus fucking it up at the end of the game. More than they'd probably want to show that he was the problem, right? Oh, for sure. Yeah. Also. Like they play them for that hell Mary and think how long ago that was. Will they hold, they've been snatching losses from the jaws of victory for a month in the most awkward, inane way. So the Beatles will be on the list.

I mean, what's scary right now, Simon, is we've got on our list two, you know, mid-sized favorites. in Minnesota and Miami. So we're playing with fire a little bit here, especially since one of the other games we liked the other day. Buffalo was a four-point favorite at the Rams. I got to tell you, when we talked about it on Tuesday, I felt pretty confident. By the time I closed my computer yesterday,

much less confident. The line had moved in the Rams direction. All of a sudden, I was just feeling like, are we at the peak of the bill's market? I know we like them to win in these spots and that they do tend to cover in these spots, but they just came off a stretch where they had like statement wins against the teams they have to beat in the Niners and the Chiefs. And the Rams are in a knife fight to win their division and still think they can do it. The move is on the Rams right now. And you even said it in sort of sharp calls.

Yeah, I was shocked to talk to a lot of the guys. Like even yesterday, I mean in the book and talking a couple guys who I really respect and they're both like, this is our favorite bets of the week as Rams. And all I could say was like, I'd been there, been there this season where I love the Rams in this exact spot too and it's just been burning me. So they could be right. Like you could be right as well where it's like, isn't this the spot to sell this Bill's team, especially, you know, huge win last week and then they're heading to Detroit

after this game. Like this is their, this is the brutal stretch here, but I can't get out of my mind, Chad, just that this is Josh Allen's world and we're living in it right now. And he's kind of broken a lot of the rules this season. And he was someone where, you know, I'll be the first to admit it. I thought we had a pattern growing with him where he was just going to be the team that beats up on bad teams and then struggles against the playoff teams. But that Chiefs game really changed my mind with that.

But like, you know, no one beats my homes by more than seven points. Like they really beat the hell out of that Chief's team. And even if you want to say the Chief's team is not that good. This is a Bill's team that lost 20 to 23 to that Houston team, right? They were down 20 to three at one point in that game. And the week before that, they got demolished by that Ravens team, 35 to 10. So it was like, we had reasons to question this Bill's team. Since then, I mean, like you just talked about, they've been one of the best,

best teams all football. I mean, their only close game, really, was that Miami game, right? They won, what was it, 30 to 27, something like that, where it was like, Tua had the Miami in that game. So, okay, maybe they still aren't the best team against playoff teams. This Rams team is not a playoff team. I mean, we can both agree with that.

They're just lucky to be at 6 and 6 right now. And yeah, okay, you don't want to put this one in because it does feel a little trappy. How am I not going to agree with you? My whole life, I'm always on this other side with this Rams team. I do just think it's just Josh Allen's different. I'm confident in them, believe in them. Love the match for the run game, though.

That's the biggest thing for me is this Rams team. We've seen it now. If Taysam Hill didn't go out of that game, I don't know if they're going to come back against that Saints team. It feels like the Saints were kind of finding a groove there, moving the ball. Same with this Bill's team. It's like, how do the bills not just run for 150 against this Rams defense

that literally cannot stop the run? Like they have no guys up front that can plug gaps and really stop stuff. So, all right, Chad. If you want to put it in, I totally get it because it is not a spot we usually take, but it's, it's, all right, give me three and a half. Let the professionals bet it. I'll be the sucker.

I'll be like the Joe Publicer, and I'll take the three. And watch it land right on three and me lose my three and a half, but I can't help myself here. I'm just, I just love this bills team and how they're playing right now. Well, look, we can keep it on the list. It's not like we have 15 games. I give your comfortable. You're like, am I really going to make chap with four favorites in? Well, look, here's the thing.

I get it. I get it. And not just that. the next game we're going to talk about, which is our big balls, so we know it's going to go in, will be the third game in a row. I know. That is going completely against what we normally do. So let's talk about these as a package instead of sort of trying to talk about them individually.

But it is time to talk about our big balls better than week. Presented by Tommy Jay. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support great games. Start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest. Okay. LA Chargers, four point dogs at Kansas City. Simon, this is a game that is testing us.

It's testing our faith. It's testing our fidelity. It's testing our biases. Because at first glance, we should love the chargers, love them. Physical team, a good coach, an elite quarterback who doesn't make mistakes. Since Justin Herbert got healthy, they have been running more play action, which is getting him much more, many more windows to throw down the field.

Against the blicks, his QBR has improved from 63 to 86. But then on Tuesday, like during the show, again in a conversation you and I had, like, before we came on the air, we couldn't get there. And like, for me, we talked about it on Tuesday. It's really about the injuries. This team could not move the ball on the ground after J.K. Davenz went out against the Ravens a couple weeks ago. And they weren't any better against the Falcons, like gaining only 56 yards rushing. Ladd McConkey is the only received. receiver who's been doing anything. He's been banged up, limited in practice, has had shoulder

issues all season. Now he's got a knee injury that's newly diagnosed. We got to go with the chiefs. Yeah. And it's, it really is. The thing we talk about this charges team was really me and you having a little bit of like, we always backed the charges at this number. Even early this year, we took the seven and a half where. And always fade the chiefs at this number. Right. And it's because it's been good to us, right? You're going back, I'm in the action app right now. You look back in 22 they had two matchups both times the chiefs were favorites greater than three and a half both times Herbert backdoored that covered like he covered it both times and that was obviously really good to us now last year you kind of can throw it out right the chargers had a bunch of injuries and then the

final game of the year I think it was the backup playing for the chiefs and same for the charger so obviously you know don't have much golf that but this year we've seen it now where um this This chief's team chat to me, they looked burned out. I don't know about you, but I felt like they were burned out. And I read a really interesting article the other day about Andy Reed giving them a little mini byweek, right? They had the Friday game and they gave them off the weekend. Had a couple guys come in Monday, obviously. But like overall, it seemed like it was a nice thing to let that team get away from it because they just looked, you know, beat.

Like that defense getting rolled, it's just not something we're used to with Spags. And like you talked about, the big thing to me, this Chargers team is that loss of J.K. Dobbins, is they had no run game, and it felt like they had no, like, I don't know, not that they've been lucky this year, but they've been a team that this year

have just been able to run the ball. And like you say, after they can run it, Justin Herbert gets the open, easy reads because of the play action pass. And when you take that away, it just looks so complicated and just awful. And he looked uncomfortable. And again, this is against a,

Atlanta team that's not that great at anything defensively where the chiefs team we've seen as bad they looked you know before that before they started playing bad these last couple weeks this is a defense that is really tough to run on and has a pretty good secondary overall so yeah this this really is about playing this matchup and try not to overthink it where it's like okay is this the lowest we can buy right now in the chiefs this season it kind of feels like it would have been great if this number got the three thought the professionals were coming on the charges but I told you it's other way. Most pros I've talked to at this point have come in on this chief's team.

I get their viewpoint. I get where they're coming from. And I feel like in agreeance with them that, okay, the number of moved too much. If it isn't three and a half in contest chat and you don't want to put in it because it's not three and a half, it's obviously not ideal. But I feel like if three and a half, we might have to put this one in another favorite. I know it's crazy. But it's really all about buying in these spots on these teams. I feel like the public is underrated a little bit.

Yeah, I agree with you. And I think if you look at the Chief's injury report for the week, which I did this morning, there's three guys on it. All three of them were full participants in practice yesterday. Isaiah Pacheco is not even on it. You know, he came back. And expectation, Andy Reid is teasing that DJ Humphrey is going to be starting at tackle, left tackle for the Chiefs. And their biggest issue, and we could see it in the game the other day, even on the

the touchdown pass that Patrick Mahomes threw in the second quarter, that sort of awkward pass where he got hit and bent over. Like, he was yelling at the offensive line about protecting him on a touchdown pass and yelling at Andy Reed to get some of these guys to get that right tackle out of the game. So, and Joanne Taylor constantly getting the same penalty over and over and over again. So I think they're between the rest, between DJ Humphrey playing, Andy Reid has been teasing it, the injuries dissipating. I think it's the exact right spot. So I'm excited that we kind of agreed on it.

When we were slacking this morning, I'm like, is he telling me he doesn't like the chiefs? Because now I'm in love with the chiefs. So I'm glad we could find a mind meld. Which made no sense. I offered up the chiefs and the Panthers. And you were like, do you like the chiefs here? It goes, yeah, why would I say them? I didn't know what the hell you were even talking about.

Well, I just got confused because I'm like, I don't know. Listen, dude. I'm on like, three hours. I get it. I'm on three hours of sleep. Yeah, you're the man. I'm trying to do the job. I'm trying to do it well.

But I got to live my life, okay? Listen, I can't be getting up, taking care of kids and doing this job while I'm out jetting around. Simon, we can hear the bells. We can smell the gingerbread. The holiday season is upon us. and with over 20 million pairs sold and thousands of five-star reviews, let's make the gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition.

It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but it feels great to give Tommy John. You'll feel the warm glow of upgrading someone's life, and with breathable comfort, they'll feel those special cringled tingles all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season? Oh, we love Tommy John chat. I'm giving it because it's the gift at last. Shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites right now for the holidays and get 30% off site wide. Save 30% off Tommyjohn.com slash favorites.

Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. I got to think that we're responsible for at least half of those 20 million pairs sold. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.

But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an

a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the eye heart. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,

give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsClyce brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsClyce on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast. learn the hard way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.

And we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about, wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth,

or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose

on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The last game I want to talk about before we dig into some round robins and get to Evan is Cleveland and Pittsburgh. So this was Simon says. Very much a sell high on Pittsburgh, right?

We would do that even if the other divisional and Tomlin factors didn't exist. We're going to go in attack mode. We will not go gently. We're going to unleash hell here in December because we have to because that's what's required. But teams in the Steelers' current position like the Eagles who are car, cover him by five points per game, just 44% against the spread, against teams with winning percentages of 60% or less, which is what the Browns have. And then there are Tomlin spots as a favorite, you know, in a variety of categories,

all of which have him covering less than 45%. You know, we don't want to back James after he wins. We do want to back James after he loses. Anything changed for you here? No, and even if at James had one last week and this was still the number, I still think I'd be able to talk myself in it just because how can you make a number this big in this division? It's so rare in the AFC North to blow teams out. Like you really have to be a really good team playing against a team that simply gives up midway through the game. Like could that happen here with Cleveland chat?

Could we get caught? Sure. Right. That's always a possibility. But it feels like James has brought something to this team that they were lacking. and you've seen in the plan, right, the offense looks so much more open and fast and they just need the defense to catch up to them.

We know the defense has not been good this year. And we talk coming in the year that defense from your year does not translate. And Jim Schwartz, I mean, we have history now data back it up. His splits from year to year are incredible. Like he either has a top two, top three defense or a bottom 10, bottom five defense. Even last week, I was shockingly talked about. They only had two interceptions or two takeaways on defense all year

before Bo Nicks kind of threw a couple up. So this is a Browns team that I understand why no one's betting them right. I think in the action app right now, all the money, all the tickets right now. We're on Pittsburgh. I expect him to be the biggest public side. No one's going to believe

that Cleveland's going to beat this team twice. That's how this division is, though. Pittsburgh could easily win this division and sweep the Raven Cincinnati and then somehow gets swept by Cleveland who maybe only has four or five wins coming to the season. Like that happens all the time in this division.

It's just a very weird, wonky way. that it plays out. So I'm, I can't help it. Like I love this number, six and a half. Like I said,

there's still a book in Jersey where that has a seven, which is incredible. So, um, this is another number that I think professional money will come in. I think it'll be driven down.

I can easily see this being six, being one of the bigger sides, when the bigger parlays. And I can't wait to put some on our money line road robin. And I just love this for an upset for this Cleveland team, especially like we just talked about like this Pittsburgh team, you know, not that we're,

we're trying to sell, on them but it's just like i talked about it last week how many of these 50 50 balls is russell's going to keep getting away with it's been incredible they just keep all connecting it's going to catch up to them it's just a matter of the variance so yeah chad i i love the browns as you can tell look a fc north halffields mccoy's montague's and capulettes like it just it's going to be close we're on the browns i feel better because at least now we know we're going to have a couple of a couple of underdogs, potentially. Yeah, my five I had written down before it came on.

Obviously, I get where you're covering with the Panthers was Cleveland and the Panthers and then the three favorites we like. I like Miami, Vikings and the Chiefs. So if people don't be shocked if that's our five, if Chad somehow knocks me out and I wake up in Chicago's in there or the Seahawks are in there, also wouldn't be shocked either because I get where you're saying those are the more public sides, but obviously I like those numbers. Yeah, I think we're exactly aligned.

I had Minnesota, I had Miami, I had Kansas City, I had Cleveland, and my next in was between actually the Rams, the Panthers, and the Bears. So we'll hash it out. We'll see what happens. And we'll do something today, and it could change on Sunday as it did last week. And it might not even matter because we'll end up in the same spot because that's what karma is. Can you name the best ticketing app in the United States? Game time. That's right.

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We got to give out our two-team money-line underdog parlay. Bet-365 is going to boost the odds, highlighted on their site all weekend under both game pages. And remember, both games are eligible for Bet-365's early payout promo, where your money-line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17-point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at Bet-365. The boosted parlay is Bears and Seahawks.

Find the boost under either the Bears or. Seahawks game pages on Bed 365. Our Moneyline underdog round robin. We'll come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday, someday. There will come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday.

There will come a payday someday. We, unfortunately, we don't do the Thursdays for our Beth 365, Moneyland Parlay, because we want as many people obviously to get in on it. If you want to do a parlay with like Green Bay in Cleveland or something like that, I also love that money line parlay. I know we don't get the boost of Dodds. But I just, I mean, I think Chad's agree with me. I do think Green Bay is a live dog tonight to pull the offset up.

Our money line around Rob and Chad, we went with Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland. Chad got the L.A. Rams in there. You sicko. And the sickest one of all can't quit it going the Giants at the finish it off. Here's my thing. I think I'm on the right side here. I know you don't agree with me, but the money has come in on the Giants. I know. I'm just scared. The Dexter Lawrence thing scares the shit out of me. Well, look, I'm a believer. I think the saint shouldn't be five and a half, five points of favorites against anybody. Yeah, I agree. The wise guys agree with me. They've moved the number down from five to four and a half. So I'm putting them in there because you got to believe in the New York pretending to play football giants. Like hap-tip.

Thank you, Chris Raybaum. I just want to say, but people understand what I'm working with you. I'm looking at our text chain exactly. Chad didn't understand if I like the chiefs. My text was Panthers or Chiefs for big balls. How could I be more clear? I don't know.

You're a crazy person. Because I was like, maybe I worried it weird. Now I'm looking at it. I'm like, how could I have more clear? Did you put a question mark? Was there a question mark at all? You're hilarious. You know what?

That's so funny. Oh, you said you did. Panthers or Chiefs for Big Ball's question mark. I don't know why I interpreted that as you thinking, you know what it was? Because you were so on the Chargers on Tuesday. And I was too. And now I'm on the Chiefs. I'm like, did we come to a mind meld?

So I was just, that's really what it was. And I was so excited. Simon, what are your biggest bets right now? Minnesota, Miami right now, jump off the top. You know, if you could get the plus seven with Cleveland with me, like I had just been hammering that. As soon as we get done this call, I'm literally going to PA with my aunt from England. We're making a quick stop at a sports book,

giving her the whole experience when I'm carrying out a book bag full of cash. And I'm hitting that last book that still has a seven over in PA. So, yeah, heavy right now, Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami. Listen, the family that bets together, stays together. I want you to give your aunt a very hearty English hello. Hello, Auntie. Scootts roulette. Who is your Scoot roulette pick this week?

When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play! Scootch Roulette! Did you not win last week? I had Denver. Yes, you go first. But I think you had Green Bay. Yeah, yeah, but you're coming off.

You had won the week before. I'm just trying to keep it fair. I appreciate that. I'm going Cleveland. You son of a bitch. Yeah. As soon as I said it. All right, well, let's flip it then.

I'll take your Vikings. I'll go five and a half Vikings. I was trying to figure out what exactly is you going to say when I say I'm going with Cleveland? I thought you'd say like, you motherfucker. Listen, before we get out of here, we got to bring in director of research. Evan Abrams for the final word, you better make us feel good, Evan. The last word with Evan. We're finished talking.

We're going to start off talking about Mr. Enigma. That's what we're going to start off talking about. If you know what I'm talking about, then you know. If you've seen the Netflix documentary, of course, I'm talking about Aaron Rogers. He had said this week that he is reinventing, redoing his home in New Jersey. So it sounds like he's very comfortable at home enough and he's not comfortable in the road. And that's actually showed up in his stats this year.

So at home, his passer rating, 20 points higher than the road. His completion percentage, seven points higher. home versus road. He has 10 more 20 plus yard plays at home than he does on the road. On the road this year, Rogers' completion percentage over-expected is the worst of any quarterback in the NFL. Any quarterback, a whole league. And Rogers has three total covers this year. Opponents have only scored 33 total combined points in those games. So if Miami can put points on the board, I'm not exactly sure how the jets are going to stay there. Now, I'll give you this as well. So Sunday night, Miami was minus seven. Of course, now it's down to five and a half.

Here we go again. Every single week, the Jets are getting action. Only two games have seen action on the board as of this morning. The Jets and the Rams. Bills are down to three and a half. Jets are getting money again. I don't know what to do, but seems like we're just going through the same thing. And I got one more for you.

And this is right up your alley. You're going to love it because I knew what you guys were going to take today. We looked back at the Tuesday rundown. I was like, this one's a hammer. Trivia time. Guess the quarterback with the most turnover worthy throws this season. Any guesses? Kirk Cousins.

Nailed it. Cousins with- No way. I got it right. Two more than any other quarterback. The next closest would be Gino Smith. Now, he doesn't just have bad throws. He's also really crappy with pressure too.

Cousins has faced four teams with a four plus percent sack percentage. Now, that is opponent percentage of plays that ends a sack. Very simple. In those games, Owen 4 against a spread this year, the worst of his entire career. So off the surgery, off the injury, with the offensive line, just not dealing well with pressure, and he's throwing the ball of the other team. I don't know what to say other than, you know, he's facing Minnesota, which, you know,

not only the best defense in the league, but also a team with best blitz percentage, like second most pressures should be a fun day. I don't know how we got to this place that we love to six to five and a half to six and a half point favorites. But here we are. We're betting what we see, which is fading Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rogers and aged quarterbacks who come off Achilles injuries.

Thank you, Evan. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $100. to get $150 and bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365, must be 21 or older and present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800 gambler

or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night 730 p.m. Eastern to recap NFL Week 14 download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an

a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?

That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Capp. Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager.

And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite,

I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.