The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 16

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

The weather outside is frightful, but the bets are so delightful as Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk NFL Week 16. Together they discuss an underdog spot for Mike Tomlin, the Carolina Panthers in a foxhole, and yet another perplexing game for the New York Jets. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more.  And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume  #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know.

Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcasts presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school.

Absolutely. A redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo.

Well, then you got it. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow.

Then after that game seven, Marquis keep coming to him. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional

better, Simon, hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Well, it's going to be an interesting show because I know where you and I are leaning and I know some stats from Evan Abrams, who continues to be asked to sign jerseys by our fans at our live events. People are going up to Evan asking him to sign their NFL legit regulation jerseys and put their favorite stats in Sharpie on the jerseys. So Evan, illuminating in his great article that he posts on Wednesdays on actionnetwork.com and the Action Network app, download it, illuminating the upside down year it has been for betters like us, Simon, who historically have cashed in betting against the favorites, fading the public, betting home underdogs, of which we have plenty to choose from this week, some stats from Evan. Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year, most profitable season since 2009. It's the fourth least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history.

Might explain some of our challenges. We like to fade the public. Teams getting over 60% of the spread bets have gone 57% against the spread this year. Again, we like to fade the public. Home underdogs are 42% against the spread, which would be the second least profitable season since 1990. What do we do, Simon? We bet home dogs and we fade the public. No wonder we're having one in four weeks and just having misery every single week coming out on the edge on these five games we're picking.

Road favorites last week went seven and no straight up and are 34 and 8, 81% since week 9. So there are six home dogs this week. Simon, you and I are curious about all of them, more than curious with a couple of them. Today is our NFL week 16 Best Betts episode. Simon and I will narrow down our five picks in the favorites, $100,000 pro football.

Come contest presented by Bet365. We'll get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John Big Balls, Better the Week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted money line underdog parlay. You can guarantee fucking tea. It's going to be two home dogs. And we'll talk about the underdog, Ron Robin. And so much more.

Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions seem to be made. As our volume podcast boss, Colin Cowder likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5.

Get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. at bet 365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. It's Thursday. Wise guys had been blowing up Simon's phone.

He already teased on it before we came on air what they think about some of the decisions. were making. Lines have been moving since we've been talking. Simon, let's do sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing?

Yeah, off the top, people want to know if you're all right, Chad. I had a couple calls about Chad take in Buffalo minus 14. They're just wondering if you're all right, making that your pick there with all these home dogs this week. So pretty easy week honestly, Chad. I think every pro I talked to for the part is on the home dogs. A couple guys I've talked to like the Eagles. It is really about the number there. I know a couple of guys that took a position on the Eagles when there was two and a half. And then when I went back to three this week, they took another position on it, which to me makes sense. It makes me a little confidence because I thought it was just going to be a shirt of

pros versus Joe's. But shaping up to be one that's not as heavily professional on the Washington side. where the other dogs like these home dogs, we're going to talk about it. Basically, the pros love every home dog this week. The only one I think people are hesitant on is that Bears number because it has moved down, right? I think if it was still seven or at seven and a half,

that would just be in the same exact conversation we're having right now. Let's dive into the favorites, though, with the pros of bet. I don't know if we're going to talk about it today, but that Chief's lines moved like crazy. So that was a line that... We're definitely going to talk about it today.

Okay, I'll save it then. That one that jumped out to me where it's like the books have left themselves open, so why to a middle here. So it's very telling that they're moving it to where they've at, they've moved it to now. So that's a game where yeah, we'll definitely need a breakdown.

A favorite that I mean you kind of liked that I've talked a couple of pros on the other side, the Colts. I mean, again, we're madly in love with it. It was just a favorite we floated out there. We kind of liked just about every pro I talked who likes the other side of that one. And again, we started out this week like in Miami,

most pros I've talked to like the 49 or so. Yep. They're all the same side as us, but it feels like for the most part, a lot of the home dogs be like this week, it seems like that's going to be the professional side this week. Yeah, I'm not surprised by that at all. Like the more I looked at the board, the more I dug into this,

and by the time we get to Wednesday afternoon, you know, opinions start to solidify a little bit. You start to see some of the practice reports. And like similar to what you, the feedback you've gotten, and I started to walk away from the dolphins. I was not feeling confident about the Colts. We're going to talk about the Bills game. I'm curious to know why they feel why they're against me.

They're not against you. They were just shocked that in a week of, like you just said, six or seven home dogs that you went with one of the biggest favorites on the board. You know, that's fair. That's also part of the challenge of doing a show on Tuesday, right? It's like you can only do so much on Monday. days when you're researching this stuff.

And you start to get more intel on Tuesday and more intel on Wednesday. I told him, I think you just had PTSD. You're a man that you're just every week, like we talk about, we've been taking these dogs. And we're just getting a shit kicked out of us. And the only one cover for us are our favorite, like betting favorites have just been good for us for these last school weeks. So that was my excuse for you to these people. I was just like, listen, Chad's been through the fucking ringer, man. He knows you should take Jets three and a half.

But in his mind, he's just like, fuck them. I'm just going to bills, and I won't be mad at myself if they don't cover. So that was my view of it. Well, look, you're not wrong. And we're going to get to the Jets three and a half because we did come back around on that. We're going to get to that soonest. First, let's talk about Kansas City, which is now with three and a half. Yeah.

And I'm putting this in here. I don't think we're going to play Houston at three and a half or Kansas City at three and a half in the contest. Mainly I want to reiterate that we bet Kansas City on Sunday night, Monday morning at plus two and a half. And then yesterday, because you are my BFF and you're good to me, you sent me a text to let me know that the Texans had moved to three and a half at Bet365. Because I told you in the shower on Tuesday morning, I was thinking this thing, which is now at two and a half, it's going to get to three. And if it gets a three and a half, we're going to have to middle

this. It was three and a half. I'm assuming you bet the Texans at three and a half. I've bet the Texans at three and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle. Yeah. And the most shocking part is we did our show Tuesday and Mahomes practiced and there was a couple of books that moved them back up to plus two and a half, the chiefs. And I was like, what do they know that I'm missing? Maybe you look gingerly in the practice. Maybe it wasn't moving right. And they were like, oh, we'll get ahead of it. And then, yeah, I went to bed and woke up to a frantic call in the middle of the night. It was like, just basically that number was moving the other way. And the chiefs were back. now to one. And then sure enough, you know, 80 or 9 a.m., I feel like it was back up on Wednesday.

It was back up to three for the chiefs. And then by time, you know, we texted later in that day, it was up to three and a half of just about every book. So, yeah, honestly, we talked about this. It's like, once it's above three, especially with this chief's team, I want to be on the other side of it. So I was already going to try to play the middle when I was at three. Happy I was patient and waited, let it get the three and a half. And now it's, I mean, for anyone that bet the two and a half on the chiefs, you. you have to try to play the middle here. You can't just roll this value.

Like this is such a chief's line where time of time again we've seen land on three. Very telling about the sports books because of how much early money they got on the chiefs that they even put this at three and a half. Because they knew if they put this at three and a half, they're just going to get hammered by, not just professionals, but the public, right?

I think everyone's kind of in on the gig of this chief's team just doesn't blow out teams. Now, obviously, we saw what happened last week. but yeah it's it's just interesting that they've moved this to three and a half and now it's just sat there for coming up on 12, 13 hours here. So the books are telling you what they need right now. They need Houston money clearly. Yeah, I think it's going to get down to three. It's already juiced in that direction. I think if you want to get the three and a half and you're listening live, go get it because it's not going to last long. I hope it's there when listeners are

tuning in later today after the show's been posted. Mostly I told you that I talked to sportsbook guys and they were just like this is on Tuesday again they're like every teaser Every single teaser on Saturday is Chiefs up to eight and a half and the Ravens down to point five Like they just got slammed with that so that to me is just They already know they're kind of screwed because this is a standalone game on a Saturday But the fact that they're just leaving this at three and a half like like you just said it could go down the three by kick But they're in such a bad position right now it might you might be able to still get it on come Saturday. I think it's not a bad spot for the Texans. If you think about it at three and a half,

their defense have been playing better. Their pass rush is one of the best in the NFL, if not the best in the NFL. Mahomes is hobbled. And we really don't know what their offensive line can do. Last week, they were playing Joe Tunney at left tackle. Will he do it again? Will he perform him well. He looked great. Honestly, for a guy that never played it before, he looked really good. Freaking baller, right? Yeah.

And you also have to wonder, like, the Texans, you know, rush game has been so inconsistent. Every week with Joe Mixing, he's either getting 100 yards or he's less than 50 yards. Last week, he was less than 50 yards, right? 23 yards. Will they decide to just unleash C.J. Stroud? Let him throw against a depleted secondary. Like, we don't know. So it could be a good spot for this.

the Texans, but I'm very happy to let my middle just sort of linger and stew and simmer. It's so rare you get these opportunities. Yeah. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. So this game was at six and a half. We liked it at six and a half. It moved down to six. Got word yesterday that George Pickens on Wednesday did not practice.

T.J. Watt did practice. This line is now back at six and a half. I would still take the Steelers. I'd probably still be comfortable with them in the contest, mainly because of the historical nature of this series. And it's sort of a Tomlin spot. It's a Fayette Harbaugh spot as a relatively big favorite. As a dog of three or more versus the Ravens, Tomlin is 6 and 0, 13 and 2.

and two against the spread overall versus Harbaugh. You know, stats galore. The series overall, the last 20 years, the underdog is 23, 4, and 3 since 2015, 16, 2, and 1. Everything says it, and like, unlike the other trends where we, you know, sort of got caught last week with the Steelers and the Browns, or the Steelers and the Fating the Chiefs,

this one doesn't worry me as much. I don't know about you. No, it's it's my favorite bet every year, whenever the Ravens in Pittsburgh play. Like we talk about whoever's the dog, I put zero effort and research into the number. I simply log on, go to Evans page, look at the trends. It's like, this is one of the few games where you can just simply play the trends here. And it's all about who's the dog. The bigger the number, the better.

It's like you just talk about it. It gets even better the higher the number gets when these two teams match up. So, yeah, Lamar having an MVP season. It feels like the only team she struggled against her, Pittsburgh and the Eagles this season, right? And this is another bad matchup for him with this Pittsburgh team that they just, they just know how to play them. And they know how to make them on court for them. They know how to make them flustered.

And yeah, Chad, we might eventually get burned by it. But we're up. I think we're like Evan 10% of five and O betting against this exact spot. And like we always joke about that. Are we overthinking this? Is this too easy? And we always eventually put it in the contest because we eventually do get there. So it is another number where it's like.

Yes, we know Lamar's not going to go 0 in his career against this Pittsburgh team. But if me and Chad can go 8 and 2, bed in this exact spot over the lifetime of this for the next couple of years, that's huge for us. Like that's the dream scenario. So, yeah, we're sitting here 5 and 0, bet in this exact spot. Nothing's changed for me. It's all about playing the number. Have this way down. Like I have this closer to 4.5.

That's the only fear. It's the same thing as the Eagles last week where I might be overrated this Pittsburgh team too much. Maybe I haven't adjusted enough on the Pickens injury, but at six and a half, I feel like that insurance has already built in. Like we talked about last week, that game would have been totally different if there wasn't a couple of little turnovers here and there

and Tomlin played a little more aggressive. I can't see him being reluctant and hesitant back-to-back weeks with Tomlin. Like he knows he screwed up last week. So, yeah, give me a Pittsburgh team on a short week, pissed off, but against a Ravens team

that just absolutely blew out and dominated a Giants team that's feeling themselves. So yeah, we love the trends. We love the spot. So give me Pittsburgh plus six and a half. I love your confidence. I was afraid that you were going to come in and tell me you're a little bit anxious about playing the Steelers because of us getting sort of snake bit last week, playing the Steelers trend and fading the Chiefs, you know, as more than three-point favorite's trend.

So I'm so thrilled to hear this because I still love the Steelers here. Yeah. This is great. It's all about the number. I would like to know. we should check this. We've been doing this show. Is this our...

Sixth season. Is this our sixth season doing it together? But is it our fifth year with the contest or is it our sixth year with a contest? No, the six year with a contest? We'll have to figure that out. I wonder how many times we put the Steelers as dogs against the Ravens in the contest. And if we've been six and no with that play, if we're running, you know, because, you know, God willing, Simon, God willing, we get four more years of.

of the show and we can have a decades worth of data on playing the Steelers as dogs in the contest against the Ravens. Guess what? You mentioned the Jets. Took me a minute. But maybe on Tuesday I would have made this my exact decision. The good news is it's lingering out there. And now it is our big balls bed of the week.

Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. I don't know that there's been a better, more serendipitous match between tagline, sponsor, and inane segment.

Then Tommy John having the support to give us to bet the New York Jets as three, Three and a half point underdogs at home against Los Angeles Rams. We like this a lot on Tuesday when it was three and a half. We both bet it there. It has moved to three. I'll tell you, it looks like it's moving to two and a half. But I don't know about you, Simon.

I started to feel much better about this over the past 48 hours. Yeah, and mine's like the old school. The old school weight reason for me liking this. Again, the numbers back it up. I mean, Rogers obviously, he's been playing much better these last couple weeks, but the biggest thing I like about this was

it felt like a trap spot, right, for the public coming in on the Rams, and then you factor in the weather. Like, it's going to be, what, mid-20s in this game come Sunday? And this is, we're talking about Stafford here. Like, people forget because he's been out in L.A., we auto-fated Stafford

just about every time he left that giant, that Lions building, right? Anytime he went outdoors, we saw Stafford, it would always struggle. Again, he's a kid that put, in college ball played down in Georgia. He's just never been a cold weather quarterback. And I need to go through the trends with Evan here with him and outdoor games,

but it feels like this is kind of a good spot to fade him and this Los Angeles offense, especially like we talked about. They're just the public darling right now. So honestly, shock, look in the app, that there is even that amount of money coming in on the Jets. But I think it's what we talked about every week. These professionals are just going to keep hitting this side, whether it was a good number or a bad number. they believe in this team, their models believe in this team.

And yeah, three and a half contest-wise, Chad, I absolutely love it. Two and a half will truly take some big balls to put it in there. Because obviously, me and you have hammered this at three and a half, would it be shocked if this game lands on three? If the Jets somehow find a way to lose this game by Philo at the end, would not be shocked. But the number, everything about this just feels like a Jets outright win, upset, shocked the world type of game.

Yeah, look, we, We faded the Rams for two reasons here. And we talked about this on Tuesday. Two very sexy, big time wins. And this team now finds itself in first place in the NFC West, right? They are streaking as they tend to do the last couple of years. Like they find their footing in the second half of the year. It's why we generally hate betting against Matthew Stafford.

But they have not been the same team on the road that they've been at home this year. And like you just said, the jets have been okay the past couple weeks. Like they lost a game they should have won and covered against the dolphins. They covered a game they shouldn't have. In both cases, they were undone. This is the scary part by their very unqualified, ill-equipped head coach, who knows less about clock management than just about anybody watching Red Zone. on a Sunday afternoon.

It's actually astonishing how bad he is at it. Like those, these past two weeks, the spread and the jet success has been entirely determined by his horrible, inane, stupid clock management. So if we get screwed in this game, this is why. And it's why actually I didn't make it a massive bet this week is because I worry a little bit

about Jeff Ulbrook, just not understanding the basic construct of, clock management. And then this is an amazing statier from Evan. Stafford, four and seven straight up outdoors, 35 degrees or less. One in three under 30 degrees. So, I mean, I knew there was something back there. It was like, we used to, same kind of treat when we give the golf, but not extreme.

I just remember when every time Stafford went outdoors, he always struggled in the cold weather. And that could be partially why this number has moved so much, Chad, because people are just, it's, again, it's the old, old man take where it's like, you got the weather and you have the public perception, they usually love to hangar with these type of spots. So yeah, if, if you're lucky enough to still find a three, three and a half out there, I would definitely grab it now before this does go down to two and a half. I do worry a little bit that Rogers has looked so good because he's old and he's been in Florida. And everybody knows that when

you're old and you're in Florida during the winter, you're going to be more spry. So does he look better? Does he look the same? Does he look worse when he's playing at home in cold weather? Here's a good stat. Last 20 years. A team that's has a winning percentage of 50 to 60%, 50 to 59%. So, you know, teams that like are good-ish might be fighting for a playoff spot, but they're not so good that they can be dominant. And we're at the end of the season, the last three weeks of the season, facing a team below 500, a la the Rams and the Jets in this current matchup, 38% against the spread the past 20 years. And since 2022, just 9-18 and 1.

So I do like that we have the Jets in a good spot here. It's a home dog. Will our fidelity to the number in the spot be betrayed by the wackiness of this season? That is our question, Simon. We just don't know. But we're willing to dig in and play it. Dear listeners, it is the holiday season. So of course I'm sporting some Tommy John underwear right now.

They're incredible. Don't roast your chestnuts with cheap imitators. Folks, let your sugar plums dance with the comfort of Tommy John. See what me and thousands of five-star reviews are raving about and deliver those magical cringled tingles with the gift of Tommy John. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season? Pretty easy, chat. It's the gift that last.

There's still time to throw down feelings. with Tommy John and become the greatest gifter of all time, but time is running out. Go to Tommyjohn.com slash favorites right now for your last minute holiday gifts. 30% off just in time. Only at Tommy John.com slash favorites. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a. First people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. We could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest,

NL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms.

So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the Hipsons High School. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years. later. We're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're

recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey with all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? They had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar something here? Just take it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky. I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm

CJ Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron. heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs.

I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stopped by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too.

Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that Izaa, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country.

From My Heart Podcasts, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam.

I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Do you rate me? pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. Or freeze on. Let's get out. Freedom.

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You mentioned Washington three and a half, you know, at the Eagle or hosting the Eagles right now. Another home dog alert for us. I'm with the wise guys on this. Like we played it. This was Simon says, I believe. But the more like I think about it, the more anxious it makes me just because I love this Eagles defense so much. Like I haven't bought out of it. I'm on the commanders at three and a half.

But it does. it does make me a little anxious. Yeah, I mean, it's fair. The last time they played, the egos beat them up. They beat them like 27 to 18 or 26 to 18. So I get your hesitation. And my view of it is just how do that egos not have a letdown

after that Pittsburgh game? I mean, they're just feeling themselves so much. I mean, Jesus Christ, yelling at her, it's press conference. You would think this dude is averaging 300 yards per game, passing in three touchdowns. Like, he came in their flex and so. so hard for a game that was, yeah, it's very good, but it's like, this is what we expect out of

you. So, yeah, not a good look, but Gianna Hurts that. That was not good. Yeah, this, it really wasn't, and it was kind of, it was, to me, it was a little bit out of character for a guy who, like, generally is pretty quiet, like, self-confident, obviously, but just hasn't been in the place where he likes to sort of go after the media, blame the media, us against the media, you know, sort of that Aaron Rogers-esque approach. Yeah, and clearly it got to him, though, where it's like, we talked about this, though.

I told you, he gets more hate than most other quarterbacks, and it is because of the weapons he has around him, right? People just see the talent of the offensive line, the wide receivers, and obviously the running back, and they're just like, this team should be so much better. They're the two seed. They haven't lost in, you know, September. It's just, I think that's probably annoying the shit of him. It's like, man, if, you know, Sequin didn't have that bad drop against Atlanta, they're probably the one seed right now. I mean, they are the one seed right now. So, you know, I get where he's coming from, but I just thought it was a weird way to start

that press conference. So it was just, uh, just, like you just said, out of character for Jalen Hertz. But, um, yeah, Chad, this match up for me, it really is just about this number. in this type of match of these two teams play, right? We've seen it this season that obviously Washington, every game Washington plays is just a bizarre game. Either they're rolling, like absolutely dominating teams, or it's going to come down to the final second's last possession. And, you know, as much credit as I want to give to their defense,

because that's probably been the most shocking part about Washington this season is how good their defense has played where, you know, me you joked about, they were getting rid of basically all their best deliming. And still have found. the way to put it together, but, you know, again, like your hesitation, I totally understand it because, you know, they had a stretch there where they lost to Pittsburgh, they lost to the Eagles, they lost the Dowell. So now they have one two straight, right? They won against Tennessee, then had their biweek and they beat New Orleans. So we've seen it that they've beat up on these bad

teams, but, you know, I just view this game as then be able to play this one close, Chad. It's like a type of game that just because it's a divisional game here late in December, we're both fighting for playoff spots in the sense that, you know, Eagles still fighting for the one seed, Washington's still fighting to be a wild card team. It just feels like a game that's gonna be really close

and other than come down to three now. I get where you're at. Your hesitation, I had a little hesitation too because I found out so many professionals were on the other side. So yeah, if there's other dogs you'd rather put in there this week home dogs, I'd be fine with it.

It was just really about me trying to get ahead of the market just because the number had moved so much. I really did think it was going to be three come today's show. clear I was wrong. Should I went with the Jets or the Chiefs, as my Simon says, because that was definitely getting ahead of the line moving in those games.

Yeah, I didn't see you as being dug in on this as a contest play. To me, it was only about the Simon says and getting the three and a half. And on Tuesday, like, it was trending in that direction. It did get down to three. It just came back up to three and a half. And I think the difference here about the letdown is, we've said this all season. physical travels, right?

And Jalen Hertz can be up and down and all those kinds of things, but their defensive line is still going to be dominant. And their defensive backfield is still continuing to get better. I don't even think they've reached their peak yet. They're just so freaking good. You were at the game, though, that's when the Eagles played commanders. I was. I bought my tickets through game time, which will get some.

Yeah, another reason I love Washington is the Eagles, I mean, people think they blew them out. They scored 20 in the fourth. Like this was a really close game. And then it kind of got away from Washington at the very end. That's another reason why I like Washington where it's like it feels like they know to match up with this Eagles team.

But like the Eagles have done all season, they just wear you out with sake one. They wear you out. They look at that 10-minute drive against the Steelers was really so dominant. You couldn't turn away. It was a constant car crash. Like it broke one of the most unbreakable teams in football.

That's the Steelers. Like you expect them to get the stop. The commanders have not been very good in the fourth quarter this year. We saw it against the Saints just this past weekend. But, you know, from Evans article, three and 11 against the spread in the fourth quarter this year. That's tied for worst in the NFL. So I do worry we're going to get to a place where it's late in the season,

rookie quarterback, physical game. The Eagles are going to eagle. you know what I mean? It's fair. Arizona at Carolina, we leaned Carolina when it was four. Now it's four and a half. It's getting up to five.

I don't get it. Like the cars are one of those teams. I just mentioned it with the Rams where they're good-ish. They've sown promise, but they're not dominant. They're not the Eagles. They're not the Lions.

They're not even that second-tier sort of Packers team, there are a good team still figuring it out with an okay defense that is getting a little bit better and an inconsistent quarterback. These are the teams you fade in December. They're playing losing teams like 9, 18, and 1 against a spread since 2022 in this spot.

And Kyler like has all the Cliff Kingsbury in him when it comes to fading this guy as the season goes on. 26 and 14 against a spread September, October, 1721, and 2 in November or later. When he is over 500 and that game is played in November or later, he's 714 against a spread. I'm wondering if this is our foxhole because we still like the Panthers, I think, and this line keeps moving against us. I don't know if it goes in the contest, but I don't know if there's another. game where we so definitively have been on the other side. I can get in the context.

I mean, I've been betting it pretty heavy this week. And it was really all about the number and what you just said about Kyler. I just think that he's a tad overrated, but he's just been the type of guy that sucks people in after a good week and then kind of has a letdown game the following week, especially in this exact scenario where he's playing not a good team on the road as a big favorite. And I mean, you joke about it. Like when Kyler is a big dog on the road, we tend to back them. Like historically he's been really good as a dog on the road, but as a favorite, especially when it's above three, he tends to struggle.

And, you know, this season, you know, we've seen him have games. Like even that Minnesota game, they almost stole that game. Like he was on the road, could have stole that game, no doubt. They outplayed Minnesota. But that was another game, I felt like that was more about Minnesota than it was about Arizona. And it feels like going to the same spot here. It's like, all right, they just had this incredible big win against a very bad team. Now they're playing another bad team.

on the road, the public is coming in heavy, bend them up, even if some professionals are betting this one up and it's at the point now, especially that's above four and a half. It's like, how do we not get this one? It just feels like way too much disrespect this Carolina team, but my only fear is I'm blind to my love for this Panthers team.

Like, it's still a team that I could be overrating. As much I wanna say that this game is gonna be another cold weather game, I don't know how Bryce Young is gonna do in the cold weather either. Like this is not a guy who's played in the big, like that. He's an Alabama quarterback

that basically his whole career has pretty much been the warmth. And I hate bring it up, but it's a real thing. These quarterbacks with small hands in this cold weather, that is tough. Like your grip on the ball is different when it is cold like this. So a lot to think about here.

A game that I'm not going to force us into, but just don't be shocked people for this is one of our five come Sunday because it's like I can easily see myself, especially hitting the books tonight and tomorrow getting talked into it. Because I just know every problem I'm going to run into for the most part it's going to be on this panther's side it just feels like this is way too inflated a number way too much respect this panthers team i mean this cardinals team and too much disrespect

to a carolina team that was due for a bad game right we talked about that last week it was going to go the other way eventually right they had been playing so well for so many weeks in a row for such a young and experienced team at the end of the day though they still were competitive in that game against dallas but it really felt to bryce young right like when that game was close of kept turning a bullet, kept being short fields. Same thing here. Like, if we have a bad Bryce Young game, me and Chad will know right away that we're dead because this, this Panthers defense is just atrocious. So, yeah, this really is a bet on do we think Bryce Young's going to show up for us on this spot. All right. So this is going to be our foxhole because I don't disagree with you,

but we're definitely on the opposite side of the wise guys here. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. The one thing I will say to counter what you're saying about Bryce Young, the Cardinals don't have any pass rushers as good as Micah Parsons. And, you know, we're going to talk about Dallas in a little bit. But he has been dominant. And that was just the biggest factor in that game. Every time Red Zone flipped to it, Micah Parsons was sacking Bryce Young or forcing a fumble of Bryce Young.

So that was a big deal. I knew you were leaning Panthers. because the last few weeks, you have loved the Jags, and we have both loved the Panthers. And I slacked you this morning and said, what do we think of these games for our Moneyline underdog Round Robin? And you wanted me to take out the Jags and put in the Panthers. And I'm like, huh, that's interesting. So I knew there was going to be a lean here today.

Because if you're taking out the Jags for the Panthers, you're falling madly. deeply in love. It's also about the value too. Like Panthers are plus 190 plus 180. I think of Jags are like minus 102. You love the Panthers. I do. Do we want to spend any time on Tennessee indie?

I don't think we're going to put this in the contest. I just thought it was interesting. You know, Mason Rudolph is now officially the quarterback. We didn't know that on Tuesday. And I don't want to lay money on Anthony Richardson as a favorite. And I don't really have faith. I don't think Mason Rudolph is even worth the point that the line moved. He's not that good either.

So I'm not feeling strongly about this game. That's fair. It feels like a game that we're going to kick ourselves if the Colts are up, 14 head into the fourth. And it's like, man, have we missed all these weeks of just fading this Tennessee team? Because they have just been atrocious. Well, look, that's also the question. So Tennessee this year is 2 and 12 against a spread.

Yeah. Like one of the worst teams against the spread in NFL history. The worst mark since through 14 games since the 2016 Browns. But Anthony Richardson is on pace to have such a bad year completing passes that is only comps in terms of lowest completion percentage for the past quarter century. Tim Tebow and Achilles Smith. I'm old enough to have been a professional in the year 1999, 2000. So I remember the Achilles Smith year.

I remember Tim Tebow very specifically when I was running ESP in the magazine. We put him on the cover. Caused a lot of consternation because we made him look like he was praying. People thought it was a political. political statement. I miss those days.

Yeah, but you were like, simpler times. You were like 10 years old, not even. How long ago do you think Tebow played? I was. No, but for Akili Smith. I'm talking about 25 years ago. This is like how bad Anthony Richardson has been. He has taken some severe steps back since the benching and we thought he was getting better.

So just a whole lot of, we have so many ugly home underdogs we can ruin our weekend with. Do we really want to ruin it with Anthony Richardson? No, it's fair. I just, I'm honestly, I told you, I was more shocked about the love from the professionals putting heavy money on the Tennessee side. Like, I'm not talking a little money. Like, I know guys who are putting decent money into this spot.

And it's what I think you just talked about, though. Maybe it's just the doubt of Anthony Richardson and the lift they think Mason Rudolph somehow was going to bring to this Tennessee team because I do think one of their covers this season was by Mason Rudolph when he did step in. Well, look, he's a better quarterback than Will Levis, and he did great for the Steelers last year, but he also had the Steelers defense.

And if you remember last year, they were winning games because of turnovers by T.J. Watt that he was forcing, not because Mason Rudolph was any kind of hero. No, he'll forever be only known just for getting hit in the head by Miles Garrett with his helmet. That's right. Also simpler times. Detroit, minus six and a half at Chicago. So we've been talking about cold weather. We've been talking about quarterbacks.

In Chicago, in Chicago, it's going to be low 30s. The warmest it'll be is around kickoff at noon on Sunday in Chicago, about 31. It's never going to be above freezing. This is not a Jared Gough spot. So I understand why the wise guys have come in on the Bears at seven and a half and seven. However, I don't think it's going to matter for Jared Gough. We're not going to need him to do much. For the record, he's 18 and 8 against the spread off a loss.

He's seven and two in the division off of a loss against the spread. This Bears rush defense is so bad. We saw it again last week against the Vikings. Even without David Montgomery, Jamir Gibbs may get 200 yards. I'm not even exaggerating. Like, I watch so many of these Bears games, they cannot stop anybody in the running game.

And the Bears are so ill-prepared. Since Iber Flus was fired, they've given up 30 plus points in both of their games. In the first half of the past three games, they've gained a total of 163 yards. That's it. Like, I know people are betting the number. I hate the Bears here.

Hate them. I'd much rather bet the lines. I know. It sucks, though, because I wanted to find a way to take this Bears team, especially, you know, the slander for Caleb Williams this week. It's just an all time high.

I mean, I've seen that video of him on that bench, you know, rolling around an agony like a toddler about 20 times. And it's like, goddamn, people let the kid grow. He's just a kid. Like he's just going through it. It's someone that, you know, not that he's a silver spoon up his ass his whole life, but he's been a winner his whole life. And, you know, last year, yeah, it was hard to lose in the pack 12, but it's like, I think

he's quickly realizing like this is a whole different world and it doesn't end like in his mind he's like man I should be getting ready for the off season no you still got three more weeks of just playing against the toughest division on football so it's brutal for Caleb and you know like we talk about the coaching has just been so disappointing for the bears everything offensively defensively since the fire and they've just been terrible and you're right I'm probably overthinking it I should just take the value here I just can't believe the books are giving us six and a half another game that's like this is in every single teaser. Even me who knows it's a sucker bet has put the lines in every single teaser.

It's too easy. That's so funny. They're not going to lose. Like there's in what world do they lose this game? So of course, somehow Chicago Bears are going to find a way to upset this game. That's just how it usually is. But this year has been wonky. It's been great for the public.

So yeah, if you're someone like me, a sucker bet in this Detroit team in a teaser, hopefully that trend continues. So I'm with you, Chad. It's like if the Bears are seven and a half, maybe me and you would have it a serious conversation here. It's not. It's six and a half. I'll take Detroit in that number and I'll throw them in a teaser.

I don't know if this gets contest play. I mean, we're going to have a favorite in the contest. We've got to find a favorite. So it could find its way in. Well, the favorite's going to be Detroit or Buffalo. Oh, right. I forgot our Buffalo love. It just cracks me up.

Minus 14. We're going for it. We'll get to it in a minute. But walk me away from it. You know what I mean? I can't. I really can't. I mean, that's the scary part with like, when he was getting up to 14 and a half, this

Buffalo game, I was like, okay, at least a professional money's coming on the same side of us. Now it is back down to 14, which is like, not going to scare me off, but I do think it's interesting that guys are taking a position on this New England team where like, again, my model thinks is a good spot. Do the bills overlook them and have a let down game? I don't know. It feels like they're coming home and Josh Allen's playing for MVP and like this is the type

game, he just beats the shit out of this bad New England team. The only hesitation here is, do we get backdoor because the bills have so many injuries to that defense? And they're really playing, you know, with guys off the streets at this point. Like, I know they only have three or four guys they've sent to IR, but they just have guys banged up that might miss this game. That could be a big deal for them. So that's, that's the only hesitation for me. Well, hold on. Let me set up so Gifford can throw up his graphics. And we're going to go a little bit out of order here because we've transitioned into Buffalo. I want to get to Seattle and Minnesota. We'll do that after this one. But New England Buffalo was my exact decision. I feel like if it wasn't

the Jets, we would want to double up and make this big ball too. I agree with you. The bill's secondary is banged up. And we know Drake May likes to make things interesting in the second half. And I think we're both Drake May fans. Like we've seen a lot of moxie out of the guy. He makes good throws. He's not afraid to throw into coverage. He throws with accuracy. he runs well. Like he's got nothing on that team. He has zero help. And he has no help from the coaches either.

And like this week, Gerard Mayo throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about his play calling. Look, maybe I'm overthinking that part of it. But I do wonder, is this all of a sudden a radically different game from a play calling point of view because of the

sort of overt throwing under the bus by Gerad Mayo of Alex Van Pelt. To me that's one part of it. I'd like your reaction to that if I'm overthinking that part. Again, I don't know, I don't think there's a move to be made with them at this point. That's

a thing where it's like you know, as much praise as we're giving to Drake May, I'm going to go through it right here. He has thrown an interception every game since November 3rd. Yeah, yeah. He's still a rookie quarterback playing against a terrible offensive line with no discernible players, no discernible talent on the edges at receiver, at running back, like he's getting no help here. No. And it's, he's getting no help, but they're kind of letting him just go through all of that right now, right? They're not like pulling back the reins.

They're still letting them throw the ball downfield. And basically every time they play a good team, they just get absolutely rolled this New England team. So like that, again, there's another reason why I'm okay with you betting this number because you've just seen this season that, you know, when they play against some bad teams, they can stay in it. They can keep the games close.

But once they face a good, complete team, they seem to get rolled. And we know that we have major questions about the defense, But you have to think Sean McDermott going against a rookie QB, he's going to be able to throw some crazy exotic looks at him that's going to kind of have his head on a swivel. So again, Chad, I was trying to find a reason to get us off of this one just because it's rare that guys call up and talk about your bets to me.

It was just funny how many guys called up were just like, your buddy, Chad, all right, giving out a minus 14 favorite is his favorite bet. I was like, I think he's just going through it. We've done this before. We did this with Alliance. We have, but this is, again, this is a different scenario. that was like peak lines juggernaut. This is not peak bills.

Like this is a police team that's a little banged up. Yeah, but how is this not peak performance for the bills? Look at what they did. They, you know, against the Rams. You keep saying like them, like, dude, their defense is dish dog shit. It's all Josh Allen. Captain America. So that's the final factor for me is that this is Josh Allen.

win the MVP game. Me too. That's the only reason I'm like all in on this. Close it out. He's going for it. Yeah. It's a week where he can do what Lamar did last week. It's a week where the Ravens could have a hard time against the Steelers.

It's separation week. It's week 16. Lock this shit down. Win him the MVP because now all of a sudden there is talk. Wait a second. Should Lamar Jackson win the MVP? Look at how good he is. Look at how efficient he is.

Right? So this is the week. we're betting Josh Allen to win the MVP. This is how we're betting Josh Allen. The odds in Josh Allen to win an MVP, there's no value anymore. We think there might be some value in Josh Allen to win the MVP against the New England Patriots.

Yeah, because Josh, again, has to keep putting on video game numbers because they really do have a joke schedule here. I think they face the Patriots twice and the Jets once the season here. On the flip side, Lamar has a tough Pittsburgh game, then he has Houston. So it's like,

Lamar could flip this to his favorite, but I just don't think Josh Allen allows it. Like, this guy is just playing at the highest level we've ever seen. Oh, my God, I can't believe we're going to put this in the contest, but I think we are. I really do. Minnesota at Seattle, this game's at three. It was at three and a half.

I liked it a lot at three and a half. I bet it at three and a half. It's basically three everywhere. In fact, I think it'll go down to two and a half. The O line is banged up for Seattle. Gino is hobbled. We hope that he's going to play. They say he will, but if he's knocked out, we got Sam Howell.

Gino against a spread at home is a loser bet. Gino against good defense is a bad bet. I just liked it at three and a half because I thought Minnesota was inflated. But if we saw this at three and a half in the contest, how would you feel? I could probably get there just because, like we've talked about this, this Minnesota team is great if they've been and while they're playing. This is a letdown spot. They're on the road in Seattle. Then they're going to face Green Bay.

in the Detroit the next two weeks. So it's like the human element is how are they not looking ahead? They know what's ahead of them, right? Like they're in total control of the one seed. Even though they want to say they're not gonna overlook the Seattle team, you just gave a bunch of reasons why they might, right? Like it's a banged up last leg team in Seattle. And to me, the reason I love it is like it feels like we're buying really low

on the Seattle team now after last week. Most of me that bet them are gonna be really upset about that performance they put out against Green Bay. And I've talked about this statenasm. I mean, it's made me a lot of money this season, but I basically have just been blindly betting these NFC North teams when they go outside the division because they've just been beaten up

outside their division this season. So this is all about the number, Chad. Like you just said, this number might move too much to the point of like, are we all in Minnesota now? Is this two and a half in contest? Like that's the issue I have with this one. Where three and a half, totally support you. I think that was a good read by you on the Seattle team.

But we're getting a bang up O line. and it banged up Gina Smith against a team that loves to rush the passer. That's what the Vikings love to do. So again, there's other ugly dogs we like this week more. This is a very pros versus Joe spot, though. The pros are hitting the Seattle team hard. The public is thanking them. They are coming even heavier on the opposite side on this Vikings team.

So yeah, really, really fun, interesting game here. Maybe the wise guys, when they call you, they should be saying, Chad really nailed it with his analysis of Seattle. instead of worrying about my mental state choosing the bills because clearly I'm finding the right side, you know? Tampa Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it at four.

It's trending towards three and a half. Money is coming in on our side. Look, it has not been successful move for us this year to fade the better team when we think it has reached a peak in the market a la Minnesota. a la the Bucks. To me, I just think this Dallas defense is not getting enough credit

for how much better it's been since Micah Parsons came back, alluded to this a little bit with the Panthers, seven and a half sacks since he came back. They are three and one in the last four games. The only loss is that fluky Bengals game, which, if not for a mental, break down by one of their players, they probably win that game.

So I still like Dallas here. Yeah, and Dallas is another team that they seem to play to level their competition in the sense that and they've played bad teams. They usually play up to and they've done pretty well. And when they've played legit contenders, really good teams, they've been rolled and blown out this season.

Now we think Tampa is right in between there. Like they're a team that any given Sunday they could upset any team the NFC. They've shown it this season. I mean, they beat the Eagles in Detroit this season, which is just crazy to think about. But we've seen it time and time again with this Tampa team. They just have letdown games.

Like it's no, you know, it's not something we're making up in our minds. Like we've seen it now where they've had these big wins, these big road wins, and they come and they face teams, and they just have huge letdowns. And, you know, they've been really hot since their bi-week. They're 4-0, right? They've just been beating up on teams. And surprisingly, their only close game in that stretch was Carolina.

That side we took that Carolina should have won. They fumbled away though, right? So that was another spot of this team being a little lucky. So they beat up on a bad Vegas team, which the line was a lot closer than people realized. It sounds like an easy one now, but like people again were hesitant about this team. Same with last week against the charges, right? A lot of professionals I knew were coming in on the other side. Like they really liked to charge on that spot.

They went 40 to 17. how do they not have a letdown here against an overlooked Dallas team, right? Going on the road here, you know, we expect this to be a close game. Like you just said, Dallas has just been better than what

I feel like people are giving them credit for in the public perception right now. Like that game, we joked about, but that was a real thing with that Cincinnati game. Like they should have either won that game or at least that minimum covered that number. Yeah.

I believe it was five or five and a half. Same goes for here. And the books are smart moving this down because that, That was a bad number they hung. When it was four and a half four, that felt like that was way too high. This should be closer to three.

Still like the value of three and a half. It's just another game that like, if you wanted to put in the contest, I know we're leaning into something we've regretted this whole season, just betting these home dogs. But how is this line not have a ton of value on it? Like it's just way too inflated for a bucking that we've seen

that you can get pressure on Baker. Like they don't have a great O line. And he'll make mistakes. Yeah, and he'll make mistakes, right. And like, then you talked last episode, Was it Blan you talked about? Yeah. Right.

Like that's a big, big upgrade to that Dallas secondary. So it's just a lot of the points and tracks to us taking Dallas year. To me it was all about the number. If this was three, okay, I could finally talk ourselves out of it. The fact that you're still able to get three and a half four on this Cowboys team, it's just way too much value to pass on at that number. Yeah, I feel like we're looking at Pittsburgh, the Jets, Dallas, Buffalo. and then we're going to have to make a call.

You know, is it Washington? Is it Carolina? Well, I'm surprised you didn't bring up one game. What's that? The Giants Atlanta. So we're way ahead of the movement, which is like the best feeling the world, getting a plus 10 against a rookie.

I know obviously it's not on the road, but like, dude, Pennix is left-handed. They're flipping to a left-handed quarterback, middle of the week, in this game. I know the Giants are trying to tank and give up the ship. We already joked about how they were going to somehow steal this game. Now it's even more tempting.

Like, sure, this kid, tactics come in and just light the world on fire and completely roll this Giants team. But how do you not throw a little bit? I mean, again, we don't have to put this in contest because the number has moved, but like, this one just jumped out to me of like, wow, the books moved this a point in a half

when Kirk got taken out, which was pretty interesting. The fact they moved it that much. It's heading back in the other direction. It got down to eight and a half. I think it's back up to nine. I'm looking in the app. I'm looking online right now. No, I'm seeing eight and a half.

I see a couple nine's out there. Actually, I think bet three six five. Yeah, bed three six five is at nine right now. So yeah, it's just a game that jumped out to me. It was like it's, it's crazy. This is this kid's first start this late in the season. And basically a must win. Like this is like, this kid.

it first starts basically a playoff game like it's just crazy they're throwing him right to the fire like this but um like i said weeks ago when they should have made the move it didn't make sense why they're keeping going to kirk out there and i kept saying maybe we're not seeing what they're seen in practice which is pennix is simply not ready i have no idea i mean this organization is just such a train wreck and it's another one of those that's like it's being run from the owner right this is doesn't feel like this is being run by the gm or the head coach just feels like an owner move the owner came down after that embarrassing game against the Raiders and was like, put the kid in.

Like, I'm done watching Kirk. So I just, the vibes, everything about it with Atlanta, I just want to fade, fade, fade. Well, the statement they put out was so weird. What they said. It was like, this is a football decision. And it wasn't Rahim Morris either. It was sort of like the organization.

What would it be a soccer decision? I hate when fucking people say that. It's a football decision. It was so, it was so sort of weird and like, you know, real politic kind of thing. So your instincts might be right on that. All right, well, I put it on the list. I don't know.

I feel like we're going to have, we'll have a good spirited debate about it. There is no debate, though, Simon, about this next sponsor. Can you name the best ticketing app in the United States? Game time. That's right.

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Game Time. Hey, it's us the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? we created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. O'Dano and our podcast point game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,

he has to really guard guys like Nas Reed. he has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night bases on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Farrell's big money players and IHeart podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later. We're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. Wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? They had a bogo. Well, then you got it.

Clar's up here. Just hit it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious.

Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh. Oh.

Oh. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country. From IHeart Podcast, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam?

I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Do you rate me? They're pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches.

I'm on a landmine. Four free time. Let's get out. Freedom from Vietnam. Cigod, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict. Sting here's madness. The world should hear about this. There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to bring to

burnouts everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Each week we give out a two-team moneyline underdog parlay, bet 365 will boost the odds and highlighted on their site all weekend under both game pages. Remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo. Your money line pick gets marked as a win if either team takes a 17-point lead, even if those teams go on to lose.

If you want to bet this, bet it at 365. This week's boosted parlay, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys. That's right, folks. That is plus 725. That's how crazy the folks at Bet 365 think we are. They're boosting this money line parlay

of the Jets and the Cowboys to 725. Find the boost under either the Jets or Cowboys game pages on Bet 365. We'll come a payday. Hallelujah. What a payday. There will Come a payday someday, someday.

There will come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday. Our money line underdog round robin. Dallas Cowboys, no surprise. New York Jets, no surprise. Seattle, San Francisco, and the Carolina Panthers. So San Francisco is a favorite now.

We have to take them out. Can I get you there for the episode with Washington? Sure. I could do it. I had Washington on my list. I think they're a live dog here. So that'd be a fun one. Yeah.

Do it. It's in. Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Washington commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line.

Underdog Ron Robin. Give me your biggest bets right now. Oh, man. Definitely Jets three and a half. Definitely Washington three and a half. Obviously, people know the chiefs, I was hammering that when it was plus money.

Now, like obviously I'm going to pull back, probably try to hit the middle um we'll see how that chief's games go i mean if it if it goes as we expect to do if it lanes and i do middle that Pittsburgh might end up being one of my bigger bets as well like that's a type of type of situation if i'm in the book i know people are like oh professionals don't do this i'm telling you professionals do this whole of time we just take that ticket right to the window and just throw it on to the next game it's just you're playing with chips it's not real money in my mind so um that's definitely a spot where it's like if i hit

that middle i'm going to be tempted to load up on this this Pittsburgh number because it is so big. Yeah, it's a tough one. So, yeah, for me, it's a dog-heavy week, Chad. Like, usually I've been trying to force him a favorite, and I really don't have a favorite I really love this week. I'll be honest. Other than Buffalo.

Before we get out of here, let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams. We talk about him constantly on the show. He's going to have the final word. He's going to make us feel even better about betting all these home dogs that we keep losing on. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. I'm going to try here. But we're going to start with the easy one, right?

So Raven Steelers. We've talked a tonne about the series stats. And yeah, they all favor the dog. But I think Lamar versus Tomlin is worth some time here as well. So Lamar is one in four straight up and 0 and 5 against the spread versus Tomlin. But look inside the number. So Lamar's passer rating of 66.7 versus Pittsburgh, his lowest versus any opponent by almost 10 full points. All right.

So he has five passing touchdowns and eight picks versus Pittsburgh. he doesn't have a negative touchdown to interception ratio against any other NFL team. In four or five starts, Lamar is under seven yards per attempt. And even looking at the Ravens this season, Ravens have five losses this year, four of them versus top seven pass rushes according to PFF and Pittsburgh's first. So it's just a bad matchup. Now, this is where I was going to actually use, Chad, the stat that you used of mine on the bad teams versus good teams.

But it's a great stat. Go back into the pod. listen to it. I'm going to talk a little bit about the Jets pick that you guys like. So the Jets offense has been better now. Scored 21 points or more in four straight games. But to me, this is about different numbers if you like the Jets. So to me, it's a defense that's been bad. Obviously, since Sala left 31st and EPA per play, 30th and success rate. But I think Rogers and the cold, it's a good angle there. So I got two more for you. Todd Bowles, Sunday night football against the Cowboys. Bowles has coached 17 games as a road favorite. When the home team scores 14 points or more,

he's 5 and 0 against a spread. When the home team scores less, more than 14 points, he's 3, 8, and 1 against a spread, losing six of those games outright. The Cowboys team total in that game is 22 and a half. So obviously they're expecting some points, which seems like a little bit of a big favorite for him. And I'll leave you with this one, and I added it because you guys had so much back and forth on Bill's Patriots. So if bills do get up early, say they lead seven nothing. Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3 and 27 straight up and 4, 25, and 1 against a spread when trailing by 7 points or more at any point in the game. Worst marks in the NFL. Even this year, they're 0 and 8 straight up, 1 and 7 against a spread, losing six of those eight games by double digits.

So the bet to me is just start fast, get Drake in a hole, and Josh will take care of the rest. Amen, brother. That's how we see it too, Evan. We love Buffalo. We are all Matt Mitchell's this weekend. If the bill's covered by 14, I'm not going to eat like wings with, you know, surgical gloves because I'm not a crazy person like Matt Mitchell. But maybe I'd have a spoonful of ice cream. Well, real quick, yeah, we got to do Scrooch roulette. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. I'll go with Pittsburgh plus six and a half. After hearing those Evan stats, how can I not? All right.

Well, guess what? I'm taking the New York Jets. What number? Can I get him at three and a half, please? We'll give it to you. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365.

And now, new Bet365 customers get $150 and bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit. $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa.

Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network. YouTube page Sunday night, 730, Eastern to Recap NFL Week 16. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7. at 1-800 Gambler. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin.

And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care. where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions.

Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of you. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow.

Then after that game 7, Marquis come until he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the I Heart Radio. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcasts presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne.

Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. A redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. This is a podcast.

We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.