The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 17

Episode Date: December 26, 2024

As the dust settles from two underwhelming Christmas matchups, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to talk NFL Week 17. Together they discuss an underdog spot for the Dallas Cowboys, the Chargers in a foxhole, and an intriguing spot for the Denver Broncos. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more.  And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is almost ready to crown a first place finisher! Be sure to submit picks this week by SATURDAY at 1pm ET, not Sunday! Earlier cut off time for this week only. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to make your picks today. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to the favorites of the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John Home Studio. I am joined, as always, by my co-s, my companion, my confidre, my BFF professional better, Simon. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad.

You have a nice holiday. Beautiful holiday. We celebrated the traditional Jewish Christmas. We went to a movie. we got Chinese food. It was semi-glorious because turns out I don't like Chinese food. And I'm eating the Chinese food

and I said to my wife, you know what? I just don't like it. Every year we get it and I don't like it. And she goes, every year you say it, why do you have to say it? And my son goes, yeah, don't yuck our yum dad.

The good news is no one gave me a cake, which I wouldn't have eaten because I'm like Patrick Mahomes. I'm like Derek Henry. I'm like Lamar Jackson. I'm in my playoff diet because I'm always in my playoff diet because sugar and carbs are the enemy. And we know this.

And I feel like Netflix should have had more forethought to not offer a cake to professional athletes who are so specific about their diet. What do you think of that? I don't mind it. I don't know how I feel still about. the Netflix experience. I don't about you, but it kind of throws off trying to flip between NFL and NBA, which I wasn't too big of a fan of. Like, it made it more of a hassle. And I noticed

the commercials on Netflix, like, you know, the two-minute drill. I think one team punted and they immediately went to another commercial after already doing a commercial at the two-minute mark. And it's like, oh, God, this is the part of capitalism. I hate. It's just getting way too aggressive. So I'm excited to see what the numbers are, Chad, because those are two bad games from I would say the general public's perspective, but I honestly enjoyed it. We saw two of the best quarterbacks just doing their thing,

dominating teams that, you know, they are playoff teams, or you can tell some teams are getting ready, ramping it up, heading into the playoffs. Other teams are just hanging on, right? Just limping into the playoffs because it's been such a long season.

So, yeah, pretty insane Christmas Day games. It was really telling. Yeah. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, when we were talking about this game, we basically said, are we buying this team that is getting better and is proving it with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, they are all of a sudden, they've been hanging on to get to 15 to 1, 15 and 1.

The last three games, they are legit. And it's hard to say that about a 15 and one team, but boy, now they get three weeks to get everybody healthy, to get the second round game at home, to have to have a that advantage. It is setting up so perfectly for them. And the Ravens, like, all of a sudden, their defense looks better. It had been getting better. The back half of that defense had been getting better and better. They were helped because, boy, we've been talking about C.J. Stroud looking terrible all year. They made him look like a rookie in week one. He could not hit passes. He was taking bad sacks, this Texans team, and the Steelers too, what happened was all four teams

did what we thought they were going to do and what they've been proving to do all year. They were exactly who their records in play showed they were. Exactly. Yeah, but it's also, I do think it's about what we talk about, the injuries. Like the Ravens, their whole offense is healthy. The Houston, you know, they've lost their two two receivers, they have a bunch of injuries on the offensive line. And like you said, a couple weeks ago, Joe Mixen has not looked right. Like he's just not had the same burst,

hitting the holes the same way. And that Pittsburgh game, I think it's a blessing, honestly, this last stretch here, because now I think they might avoid paying Russell Wilson legit money. Like there was a minute that they were about to give him, like, what, a three-year,

$100 million dollar contract. And, you know, they basically have hit a wall with him that he just, as good as he is, right? As he good as he looked, you can still see that he just makes these really bad mental errors that just catch up with him.

So yeah, it's a good time for people betting favorites, man. Like this is just the craziest time we're living in and you just blindly bet these favorites and they're just cash and no problem. Two more road favorites cashed yesterday. Steelers lost at home.

The Texans lost at home. The Ravens won easily. The Chiefs won easily. Let's get into it today. is our NFL week 17 best bets episode. Simon and I will narrow down our five picks for the favorites, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. We will also get into the foxhole, give out our Tommy John Big Balls,

bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line underdog parlay, the underdog, round robin, and so much more. Betts are rolling in, lines removing, decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss, Colin Coward likes to say, There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365 customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary a bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Before we get to sharp calls, another reminder, if you are participating in the favorites pick-um contest this week, your picks must be in by 1 p.m. on Saturday, not Sunday.

we're including the Saturday games. That means you must make your picks by 1 p.m. on Saturday. Get those picks in by Saturday, not Sunday for week 17. Good luck. All right. Wise guys always have an opinion of what we're talking about even over Christmas. They don't rest. Just another football week for them.

Lines are moving based on our conversations. We're going to hear what the sharps have to say. Simon, let's do it. Sharp calls. Hello. there I'm talking ring ring telephone ring somebody said baby what you do it's obviously I hit the book after our show on Tuesday but I didn't go any sports books yesterday didn't go up to the runner's house yesterday either like it I mean obviously there's too much going on let people have

some time off see their family I'm not a total psychopath so this is a little be this would be like a shorter version of it just in the sense of not that everyone's scared off because all these favorites are just been hitting. But there's no confidence behind these guys' bets right now, which is very interesting because there's a couple lines this week I really liked. I've stood out to me. And it doesn't seem like everyone's jumping on the same boat with us. The ones you nailed Chad, especially on Sunday, a lot of pros I've talked to really like the ramps. They like that side. A lot of pros I've talked to really like the Green Bay side. And we've seen that number at a couple of books flip to this point, which I can't lie to you, Chad, is making me like

Minnesota even more because it's just a team. Oh, no. Yeah, people just have have not believed in them all season. Like this is, this is not that shocking. And it's not a good game. I'm rushing a bet because I'm just hoping I get it too. Like, give me a plus two on the Vikings at home.

Oh my God, that would be a gift. A lot of guys agree with some of the Panthers, right? That number felt too high. Shockingly, I saw a couple of books touch eight and a half with it. Now a couple books are back down to seven and a half, which again, for a minute there I was like,

what am I missing here? Like, even that dog to me felt like a dog, me and you were going to be on no matter what this week. I'm glad it's come down because it was scaring me off. And then again, we debated. I thought way more people would be on New England. I don't think guys are willing to put up that much big money on this New England side. And it could just be because they are so bad and dogs just aren't hitting like they had,

they're used to, right? Like, to me, this number I thought would be down to three, three and a half come today. It's gone the other way. Like it's up to four and a half for a lot of books. So I think guys are just a little gun shy and they're more heavy into taking these favorites, especially it's a good week for teasers. Like we already talked about it. It's a week where you can take these numbers down against bad teams that,

sure, they might not cover this huge spread of eight, but they're going to cover two or three. Like they're going to cover those little numbers. So yeah, for dogs that guys agree with us on, we're Atlanta and Carolina. And we talked about it. We both bet it. Detroit got down to minus three. I know some smart money on the other side of it. But me and you talk about, I think they're misreading Dan Campbell.

Like he's talked about they're going to go all out and not sit and rest of this game. I think they're banking on them resting for this game. So yeah, very, very interesting game of, or weak, I should say, of just professionals taking favorites, not so much the dog. So it's finally going the other way. I think guys are finally been beaten down to this point, chat, I've just being like, man, it's just simpler to bet these favorites right now. They're just, you know, what we talked about, right?

The teams are more aggressive on going forward on fourth downs, and the shorting fields has really helped these favorites. So it's a unique, a unique season that continues to favorite the favorites. Well, guess what? We're going to kick it off right away. Something we never do. We'll discuss. It's our big balls, bed of the week.

Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games. Start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest right off the bat, the L.A. Chargers. They're minus four. and a half right now at New England. This was a history-making conversation on Tuesday. And this is what a weird year it is. It's the first time ever. You have not just warned me against an exact

decision. You outright vetoed it. But then in our chat this morning, I feel like you're as beaten down as I am on this. And I think yesterday even sort of confirmed that and then getting this validation from the professional betters, this is the first year we would ever even think about making a road favorite going cross-country in this spot against a massive trend against the luck rankings. First time we would make them a bit balls.

But I will say, you know, you said the numbers move from four to four and a half. I couldn't resist anymore and I gave myself a little gift yesterday, Christmas morning gift. And I betted it for a completely irrational splurge. We may be off. But I don't know.

I just love the Chargers here. Yeah, honestly, it was the same thing with Cleveland where I was like, it's going to be cold in the north. These teams coming from warm climates tend to struggle late in December in these exact scenarios, especially a team like the Chargers who play indoors. Once again, like we already talked about, it's going to mean the 50s and rainy. Like it's going to be warm in a lot of these North, North games. And it honestly came down to the coaching.

Chad. Like I just, I have more faith in this Chargers team be prepared for this game and less faith in an England team that basically felt like that was their Super Bowl last week against the bills and all the bounces went their way for the most part and they still couldn't win that game. And, you know, the only really bad play I could think of was the backward pass by Drake May but it's like, not that we expected, but it's like he's a rookie. He's going to make stupid little mistakes like that and the chargers are a team that that's all they do they just wait for you to make a mistake once you make it they capitalize and then it's basically over and we've seen it this season like you know we've i feel like done pretty well knowing when to be on the charges and when to

get off of them and i thought there was a spot to get off this chargers team but you know the more i've talked to people the more i've dove into it it's like all right chad's right i should have trusted my initial gut reaction of the summer's too low like i said my model had this at six so to me they're still showing value here and you know if we we come in here Sunday night and this is the game we do lose and it's like we're kicking ourselves because we knew it was a trap that would be brutal but like we talked about this year it's just been different this isn't that type of spot it doesn't matter what the books need doesn't matter that it's a good home dog um this number just feels too low to me on this on this side so that's why I do support taking the chargers

so we went through this on Tuesday too you just repeated almost verbatim. What I put in my notes to talk about today as to ultimately why I liked this game. I thought it would come down way too much because of how the paths played against the bills. That was the exact... We screwed that game up.

I don't think we're screwing this game up. They came out, Drake May won with his legs. He's been accurate. We know that he's going to do that. But it's different when the spread is 14 and a half than when it's four and so many of these games this year are coming down to the coaching decisions. Harba always makes the right one. He's a football savant. The way he played the end of that first half against the Broncos, that's what swung the game, right? Call on the

timeout, making them kick it, getting the penalty. Those things can only line up if he he's thinking about strategically, how am I going to manage every second of this game? And he just does that better than Gerard Mayo. I'm not saying Mayo won't do it one day. He might, he might. He had a good call with that fake punt last week against the bills, right? Like, why not? Be more aggressive, have a good time. But he's not the strategist that Jim Harba is yet. And so that's what it came down to for me when I kept looking at. I'm like, it just, it doesn't make sense. and we've been proven right and moved back up this morning.

I don't know about, I don't know about Mayo though, because I honestly have heard so many whispers about the variable story line coming, him coming back to England that we don't know what the vibes are in that locker room right now either, so it could all just be really negative for New England and maybe that's the part we're missing

that this Chargers team just going to roll this team in this week. Well, we hope so because it's our big balls, bed of the week. Simon, a new year is almost here. Together, we'll throw off the old, rusty shackles of 2024 and we put on the new, shiny, glistening shackles

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It's the gift at last. That's right. Right now you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites for the holidays and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com. slash favorites. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows, without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid.

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while he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, I said, you figure it out, quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Keith Gianmanca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else,

a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate. that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success.

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Denver Broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. I can't quit this one. It was like another one that was in consideration for big ball. It's another one that I gifted myself on Christmas day when it moved to three and a half. I took it at three and a half. It's since moved back down to three.

What are your thoughts here? I feel supportive of it just because of this inside defense. We talked about it on Tuesday a little bit of just, I don't think they're good enough to be giving up a hook to a team like Denver that can move the ball offensively. And even when Bo Nix makes stupid turnovers and mistakes, it doesn't slow him down. He just comes back out and keeps slinging it.

And Sean Payne kind of has that trust in him that. He'll keep letting him push the ball downfield. And defensively, I feel like that's an edge for this Denver team. They actually have a good defense that can rush the passer. And, you know, obviously Joe Burrow having an incredible season, but how many times have seen him kind of shoot himself on the foot in some point of the game? It's not his fault. It's just so much put on his shoulder.

And to me, that's why this game feels like it will be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one, right? They need to win one of the next two. Obviously, they want to win this one. but, you know, that number to me at three and a half is just so tempting. I can't really pass on it. So it's another game where it's like hard to like dogs this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense,

it feels like a good opportunity. And, yeah, matchup-wise, like really going through all the numbers are breaking it down, how this defensive line of Denver can match up against the offensive line of the Bengals. It's really going to work out for them just because Joe Burrow, honestly, he's one of the quarterbacks that does hold onto the ball. Like, he does take sacks. the other guys don't because he likes to push it downfield.

It's who Joe is. I think we're kind of starting to figure it out where, you know, for a while there we'd always blame his offensive line as the years have gone along here. It's like, well, a lot of these are self-inflicted wounds by Joe. Like he's just not taking the first open read. He wants to kind of test the limits and push it down field. So it's all about the number here.

Like you just said, it's shifting down to three to a lot of books. So at three and a half, especially contest-wise, I would play it. But if it was two and a half, would even think about playing it. just it's all about getting that hook to me because I do think the bangles will win it, but by more than a field goal, it feels like a stretch. I think I agree with everything you're saying.

You know, when we talked about this on Tuesday, I liked it because we've got a pass rush that can dominate the Bengals, especially if Mims and Brown are out. They were limited participants on Tuesday, haven't seen any updates. You know, today is sort of the key. key day. But we saw what Cleveland did against this Bengals team. They were all over the Bengals backfield. They made Joe Burrough look better because he had no choice but to look good when he's being rushed constantly. They had four sacks. They were in his grill. This Broncos

team is better in coverage than the Browns. They've got just as good a pass rush. And they've got an offense. Like the only reason the Bengals covered that game is because they were playing Dori and Thompson Robinson. So I stole this from Reba on the Action Network pod. Bo Nix against bad defenses, like below 50% in the league across a variety of metrics. 7 and 0 straight up and against the spread, 29 points per game, 13 touchdowns, two picks. Damn. That makes you, I knew you liked that. That makes you feel better about it, right? You know, so. That's good numbers. Yeah. And like, also, here's the biggest news to me.

We've seen this Broncos defense struggle the past few weeks against the Browns and then the Chargers when Raleigh Moss was out of the game, their cornerback. He was a full participant on Tuesday. I would expect he's playing this weekend. So it's more the reason, all the more reason to like it. The one thing I would say about the two and a half, and maybe Evan can help illuminate this over the next few minutes and we'll come to him in his segment. I think the two, two and a half, you're winning. just as often as the three, three and a half this season. So it's something to think about.

Big pros Joe's game. Pros have been all over the Broncos in this game. I put in Arizona at the Rams, even though it's at six and a half. We're not going to play this one. I think the number has moved so much. But I want to keep it in because we discussed it so much on Sunday and so much on Tuesday. I didn't want people to think. We forgot about it.

And then you mentioned it in sharp calls. Like it got up to seven yesterday before it came back down to six and a half. Do you feel strongly about this game at six and a half? That's what it'll be in the contest. I do like the Rams, but I do have other favorites I like more just because of what we talked about. I feel like the numbers move so much, you know, Connors might give it a go. Like that's a big deal for theirs. I mean, I know that was it two offensive alignment they put on the IR?

They lost after last week. I'd have to go back and look, but I think so. You know, if they're losing two offensive alignment and they're number one running back, how do we not love the Rams? Like, I know that they don't have the greatest defense, but given that level where it's all on Kyler, that tends to be the worst spot you can be in if you're Arizona. Just Kyler seems like he has not to live up to the moment this season.

And the fact that this Cardinals team, we could say the best game of Kyler's career, or I guess just this season, was against. this Rams team earlier this year, when Rams were all banged up, you know they know that. And they've been waiting for this opportunity. And, you know, icing on the cake is like, they win this, they win the division. So they get a mini-buy week next week.

That's a big deal. So, yeah, I love the Rams, but my worry chat is just the numbers move too much. So I agree with you on that. All right. So, well, it's kind of a back burner game. I just didn't want to leave it out. The next game, Las Vegas Raiders at the New Orleans. Saints. I'm falling more and more

in love with this as the Saints. I don't tell you. But doesn't this feel like the game where you 100% go in on the Saints? They just got blown out. The Raiders won in a game

that they clearly should have lost. Why isn't this game coming up more? This is a game in years past. We would not be hesitating. Zero hesitation. I agree with you about betting the number, but it's a game I have zero confidence in because I have no read on how Spencer Rattler is going to do and how he's going to be able to move the ball. And the flip side, I do kind of have a feeling how Vegas can move the ball. We've talked about they still have some of their studs offensively that they can move the ball and get it to.

And I know the Saints were unlucky last week. There were times where Spencer took off with the ball and you're like, that's the key to this offense. If you just run the ball, brother, like you can open up the. offense in so many ways. But eventually he went away from it. And again, they just, they're the only team this season, I believe, they got shut out this year. Like, they're the first team to not score a single point in the game this year. So I agree with you. Would love to be on the Saints chat. I would love to feel confident about it, but I just have a hard time putting my money on this team right now. I just have zero faith in the Saints offense. This season, just going back to the

Broncos and Bengals for a second. Teams that, well, actually, Evan, I'll ask you to explain this. I'm not quite sure I understand the minus one and a half, minus two, minus two and a half. He's got the records against the spread at each number. So I guess we'll talk, let's talk about a little bit in the segment when you come on

and we'll unpack it a little bit. I mean, that's fair. Going back to the Raiders and Saints for a second, it just feels like you bet the number. Like we're, you buy low, you sell high, the Raiders benefited from multiple Jags turnovers.

The Saints had the JV against the Packers and prime time against a team I think is better than Minnesota. Like the offense is not any better this week, but should they be dogs? And then teams off a blowout like the Saints, 65% against spread the past 20 years. happens more often than you think. Like, we're talking close to 100 games.

So, I don't know, it just feels like if we had more confidence and we hadn't been getting just hammered on quirky favorites this year, we wouldn't be hesitating. We'd be pulling the trigger and we'd be proud of it. I probably wouldn't just because there's just other better dogs this week. It's like, I don't, there's a couple of games right on there where I have a game that we've bet on that I have to have watch closely. I'm just like, God damn you, Chad.

That's what you feel like you're trying to do to me right now. It's like, I don't want to be watching this game. I don't want to have big money on this game. So, yeah, you're right. It's probably the right spot. It's another game, right? I'd rather just throw in a teaser. Give me seven and a half.

That's a nice big number for the Saints team. And that'll be my bet for this. I just have zero interest to bet this one straight. For the record, I gave myself a lot of pre-Henica Christmas Day gifts in the form of bets. Like the Ravens Texans under 51.5 live. The Chargers minus four. The Broncos plus three and a half. As confident as I am talking about the Saints,

I did not give myself a Christmas gift of the Saints at plus one yet. I'm just saying. I did get Carolina plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay and it's now at eight. This was my exact decision. Panther started the year 1 and 7 against a spread. It burned all of us. There's three and four since then. I think we've been on them all three times that they've won.

We're going back to the well again. I don't think there's a question here. The market just has not adjusted enough. We talked about sort of the spread differentials from the last time these two played. It's only a point and a half difference going back to Tampa. But come on. Let's go Panthers. Yeah, it's another game that, you know, probably should just take the over

because it's going to be a game that the Bucks are going to be able to move the ball anytime they want. With Bucky Irving, with what they have on the outside, with, you know, Baker tends to bounce back in these spots, they'll better to move the ball. But just even rewatching that game against the Cowboys, as well as Cooper Rush played, that just had guys open all over the field. Like, it just seems like this Tampa Secondary cannot keep up with opposing offenses

right now. And like we've talked about it, this, the comfort level of Carolina with Bryce Young right now is an all-time high. Like they are just so in sync between the play calling, even Adam feeling like, you know, this guy basically was sent to Carolina to die two years ago. And he's just such a stud, especially his trust level with Bryce Young. Like when he needs to on third down and a really tight window, that's who he's looking for. So I'm with you. Like I love this Panthers team. My only fear is just that I'm so in love with it.

This is another game where I took their money line again. Like I just love this matchup for this team. And the fact that it's still seven and a half and above, it's insane to me. Like you just said, way too much respect to a buck's team that we agree is good that they're going to be able to score and move the ball. But we know that the opening of this back door is going to be there. Even if we're down 21 or 17 in the first half, this bet will still not be dead. Like we're still going to be alive.

So I love that this number is still so big just because of what we talked about. It's just obviously clear disrespect to this. this Tampa Bay team. I mean, Bryce Young, 2.0. He's accurate. He's ballsy. He takes hits in the pocket, but he also gets out of the pocket, uses his legs.

He's been a revelation. And to his credit, you know, there's only two weeks left in the season. But Dave Canales finally did say he'll be our quartermaster for the rest of the season. He had been avoiding saying that, purposely avoiding avoiding saying that. But yeah, we love, we're book-inning the season. We love the Panthers. If they win these last two, we hit our over,

which would be an insane proposition if they can actually do it. Look, we're book-ending the season. We love the Panthers at the beginning. We're loving the Panthers at the end. They're finally the team we thought they would be. Simon, kudos to us, really, for having to wear with all to stick with the team, not back and down, not being afraid, going back in, even at the thread of a revolt from our listeners,

telling them what's good for them. That's what we'd do. Tennessee plus one at Jacksonville. This is another Chad game. The Titans are now 2 and 13 against a spread, tied for the worst records to start the season in the Super Bowl era, per our friend Evan. At this point, the only question is,

do you bet the regression or do you pass? I was convinced on Tuesday we bet the regression. A little bit less so today. I don't feel as good about it. Yeah, it's just another game where you're exactly the right, a normal year. Just like the Saints, this would be an easy bet, easy spot. They made a QB change, and no world was old love was going to put up 30 points last week. Like, that really was about how Mason Rudolph is that much better as a quarterback for this team.

So that to me is the biggest difference. The professionals, we talked Sunday night. They came in heavy on this one, right? It was two and a half, too. They hit it right away. Now it shouldn't sit now, just sitting at one. And most pros I talk to, they've hit this number. I feel like in the action app, it kind of backs that up.

So yeah, it's the professional side. Like you're right, that's where the pros are gonna be on. Tennessee, it's, again, there's other dogs I like better. Like, do we really like this better than Denver? Do we like this better than Atlanta? Do we like it better than Carolina? No. I don't.

Right. So that's the spot we're in here where it's like, me and Chad usually love betting these no, nobody believes us ugly dogs, but. We're just hesitant because they just, like, Tennessee is a great example. They have not been hitting like they should. And this is another spot where the number is good. We probably should take it, but I just have no urge to put my money on this type of team. What about teasing it?

Like, you get through three, you get to seven. Like, do you tease it with the Saints? If it was one and a half, I would. Right now I'm looking at just one, so I wouldn't tease it just getting to seven. Because obviously people know pushes are no good in teasers. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Maybe on Sunday we play it for a little bit as just a regular bet. I don't think it's making the contest.

We still owe people a foxhole. Exec decision was the Panthers, big balls, as the Chargers, Simon says, was Atlanta. We owe a foxhole. I'm a little worried we won't find one because I know we're on the same side as the wise guys and a lot of these games coming up. Dallas at Philadelphia, eight and a half. It's come down.

But this one still makes no sense to me. We spoke about it on Tuesday. And Sunday night, it was seven and a half. We were taking the cowboys, it got up to eight that night. So we were taking seven and a half and eight. Sort of hedging against Jalen Hertz being out. Then the line blew up. It got up to 10.5 on Tuesday morning.

And there was still no news about Jalen Hertz. And now it's slowly been coming back down. 10, 9.5, 9, 8.5. Still no news about Jalen Hertz. Cannot find any news. You haven't heard anything. Fascinating subplot, Simon. I did message someone that works with the egos

and they're on the note today. and they basically just said that they'll know more info after today's practice, which obviously as we're recording right now, that has not happened. The scary thing is right now, Hertz has a concussion, and Kenny Pickett has ribs, and they basically signed Ian Book off their practice squad. So right now,

it's Taney McKee and Ian Books as their two quarterbacks. So if that's a scenario, yeah, obviously Me and Chad will just sit in our cowboy tickets and let that ride if that's what's coming this Sunday. But yeah, if we get any inkling of hurts, and I know the public will know because they'll see the line move just like we will, that's going to be the first way we know it's hurts again. If it does go right back up to 10.

But right now, like you said, it's coming down because of so much unknown. So I like the Eagles in the spot. This feels like a good spot for their defensive balance back at home. They match up really well against this Cowboys team. I believe the first time they played Eagles won 30 to 8 or 32 to 8, something like that. And, you know, it's just a defense that they are really good in press coverage of man-to-man. And we've seen with CD, if you can have really athletic young corners like the Eagles do, it's different than you can neutralize his speed, right?

And we saw last week, like a team like the bucks, they have no one like that. And that's why you can force feed a guy like him. And on top of that, you know, more I read about it, like CD's just basically playing with a bang, up shoulder and yeah um he re aggravated the last week getting tackled on it but finished the game but you could see that he didn't play but he played like two plays in the second half he wasn't a factor you could just see that he was basically not that he re-indred i shouldn't say that because we don't know but you could see that discomfort level had gone up such a level that he didn't even want to be out there taking hits and they kind of held him out so yeah we expected a let down from the cowboys

after that huge emotional win against that buck's team and you expected to bounce back from an eagle's team getting embarrassed and their defense is getting chewed out all week by Fangio but with the unknown of like we just talked with the unknown of Hertz I can't confidently give this out to people and listeners of the show so yeah it's it's a game that I'm I want to be on the Eagles but I am hesitant to give it out right now just because of all the information we don't have on Hertz yeah we definitely worry about the Eagles bounce back on defense we worry about Jalen all of a sudden being a go on Sunday we worry about Cooper Rush his critical So it live, it just moved a minus seven and a half.

Eagles. So it keeps dropping, which again, that's not great if you want to back the Eagles. But if you want to grab Cowboys now, like we've talked about, we've already done it. I mean, I'd grab eight and a half just in case. Yeah, but if you have the eight and you're getting nervous that Jalen Hertz is going to play and you want to buy out of the eight and you don't want to wait, you could also take the seven and a half, right? Like then you're getting to buy out of your bet, you know, maybe it'll go down.

Maybe you get the seven, who knows. But it's an interesting, interesting scenario for everybody. Very interesting. I also worry that the Cowboys injuries in a lot of spots are going to impact them more against a better team and that they just played their best game against the Bucks. They had just found out they weren't in the playoffs. They clearly like Mike McCarthy. they were going to go play hard in prime time.

They were hitting like it was a conference title game. That adds up, especially the following week when you've sort of come down emotionally a little bit. Yeah, but we talked too, though. That Cowboys game was not a perfect match for the Cowboys. It really was. Like everything they do well offensively, Buck struggled with.

And then defensively, we talk about their second team, the secondary has really good hands on the Cowboys. And, like, that affected Baker. Like, those type windows just weren't there for him. So, yeah, I'm just shocked as we're doing this live, that number moved down even more. Like, the Eagles haven't any of practice yet. So this is clearly professionals trying to get ahead of it,

get on that cowboy side. We're going to have to run through this again and choose a foxhole. It might have to be New Orleans. That's kind of what's in my head right now. Because I'm looking at the rest of the games, Green Bay at Minnesota is a huge move. I thought we were going to do. I honestly think we should just do Detroit for Foxhole.

I would do Detroit. I love it. I just don't know, are we in the Foxhole? You don't make me fucking bet the saints, Chad. Please, for the love of God. Are we in the foxhole, though? We'll get to it. We'll get to it.

Green Bay at Minnesota. I love Green Bay. You love Minnesota. The wise guys are with me. I'm a wise guy. I move numbers. The line is moved. They're also with you on the Steelers.

That didn't work out too well for them. I didn't bet the Steelers. You didn't bet the Chiefs, though. I didn't bet the Chiefs. I didn't bet the Steelers. I didn't do the sides. You don't see how that works? No, because I was on the total.

I lost either way. but I was on the total. You were on the Steelers. I was a wishy-washy non-opinion. I told you it was my biggest bet, and you didn't even touch it. You were just like, I want nothing to do with it. I want nothing to do with it.

I classified you being on the Steelers. I was wrong. Don't take it personally. I was wrong. You were right. You made a lot of money on the game. I lost because I was on the total. But that's a game.

The pros were heavy, especially when the Chris Johnson news came out. They were heavy on the Steelers. And I just, I don't know. I get where people come from this Packers team, but especially now, I told you, now the numbers move even more. Like, I'm getting a plus number on the Vikings now. Yeah, well, I was going to say, like, the number is moved from Packers plus one and a half to now minus one. And it's been moving aggressively over the last 48 hours.

I did bet the Packers money line on Christmas Day. They were still slight dogs at the time. I guess my take, if we're talking about, like, comps, right? Why do I like the Packers more than the Vikings? Why would I feel more comfortable betting the Packers than I would say the Steelers? I just think the Packers are a really physical team. And we know their identity is run the ball with Josh Jacobs, limit turnovers, control the clock, Jordan Love makes the right throws at the right time in the right situation.

And I feel like Minnesota, you're saying it can sit. I feel like Minnesota consistently is getting lucky and lives and dies by Sam Darnold being able to evade in the pocket and then throw over the top of coverage that is breaking down. Or Kevin O'Connell puts him in a great spot and he can throw a rope across the field from the opposite hash on like second and 12. after another holding penalty or ineligible player downfield and sort of keep the chains moving. But that isn't sustainable to me. And then you look at their wins during their win streak. Close games that just as easily could have been losses

against the Bears, the Cardinals, Seattle. And then they were tied with Atlanta in the fourth quarter before Atlanta's turnovers completely put them out of the game. the game. To me, Green Bay has dominated in their past five games. No close games to inferior competition and a one field goal loss to Detroit. They beat the bears by one point. That's not in the past five games. Oh, okay. Okay. You got me there. You got me there. Their one loss is a field goal to Detroit. So I don't know. I just feel better about, you know, you can see teams getting better. I don't think Minnesota is necessarily getting better. I think they've played to the best of their

and had things go well their way. Can't refute any of that. We've talked about. I think they've been really lucky, but I also think that they have the coach of the year and a quarterback that is living up to the moment. Like we talked about, as much as we said,

they've been lucky, he's making big-time throws in really, really intense, tight situations down here. Like you said, they've been playing all season above their talent level. They have a nameless defense. They have Sam Darnold as their quarterback, and they are whatever, 13 and 2 at this point.

So my whole issue is that they are a team that when it's tight, they have one of the best teams in all football. And on the flip side with Green Bay, again, nothing against Jordan Love. But when he's played against good teams, he's not been great in those tight moments. And they have not played that many great teams this year, right? Like you just went through their whole schedule, other than Detroit, they've had a cakewalk these last couple of weeks. Like this to me is a true test for their defense, which I don't think is that good.

even coming to the year, I said, I don't care they made a coaching change to their defense. I don't think they had have the right pieces to it. So we're not doing the Saints. It's, please stop trying to do the Saints. Yeah, I just look at this as it's just a Green Bay team that the public is going to love everyone's all into. And I'm just, I'm kind of dug in here on the disrespect for this Vikings team. And like the number that now the number is flipped. It's making me even more confident.

It's like even the public now it feels like is on with the professional. on this Green Bay side. Just a ton of love for this team that, you know, I just don't think they, they have been tested right. They were testing that Detroit game, but even that Detroit game, they should have won that, right? Don't we, then we both agree on that? They were, felt like the better team against Detroit, but they just were not clutched at the end of the game. Like they gave away the game and kind of gave the opportunity to Detroit to win that. So that, that to me, Chad, just my fear here is that Minnesota, when it's close to the end, they're going to steal this one.

All right. You know, I think, that these will be two good games for Scoot Roulette. I can't wait to be on the opposite sides of it. We haven't had a, we haven't had a, oh, that's a good one. Do that. Yeah, it's fun. Yeah. We haven't had a game where we are head to head all season, I think.

We just did it on Christmas. You were on the Steelers. Guy. Come on. I was hardbrook. I opened up my action app. Christmas morning see if Chad was going to be back in me. Nope.

Wasn't there. No support. I couldn't get there. But, because I'm too afraid of my time. I was there for you on the bills last week. You couldn't be there for me on the Chiefs this week. I've been there with you on so many things. We got there with it.

How many times have we bet the fucking Jets this year? We love it. So many times. But we haven't been head to head on a game. Normally what's been happening. Normally what's been happening is like one of us will have an end. opinion and the other one will have a strong opinion and we will put that game in one of ours. This year we are head to head on Minnesota and Green Bay. I like it. Like it a lot. Atlanta at

Washington, this was your Simon says. Three factors. Can you remind people what your three factors were? I cannot. You like what you saw from Pennix? Makes sense. We like fading the commanders off their miracle win. Oh yeah. We don't think Washington's defense is very good. I agree with all that. So, yeah, Simon on Tuesday was spot on. But I also just think, like, the more I broke down the film on Pennix that I had underrated him a little bit, right?

I think I was a little too negative on him on the Sunday show. And you were ahead of it, right? I think you said, take it, whatever it was. It was a five or five and a half Atlanta when it opened. Yeah. Yeah, way too much respect for this Washington team. And my only real hesitation was, well, it is a rookie and a second star going on the road playing in a prime time game like that is a tough spot to be in but as you quickly

mentioned to me this is not your regular rookie this is a guy who's been played a lot of years in college playing in some really big games in college football and has lived up to those moments in college so that does translate to the NFL like we've seen these quarterbacks who have played in big time games I mean the the one that really stood out to me was Joe Brower right like he had all the hype in the world coming at LSU and you saw immediately this guy had the confidence because he had played in such big time game so this one another one that's just all about the number right and another game where I swore this would be three today just because

I did think the professional was coming heavy on this one it's not there like there's still some four and a halves popping out there that you can still get so yeah not not a slam dunk I thought was going to be but yeah love this matchup love this number for this team and just feels like a game that they could steal and went outright like it's a a watching team that's just going to be inflated like we talked about after last week and I still think the number is just way too high. Like you're still getting a great value on this number with this team. And the Achilles heel for that Falcons team was they had no pass rush. They've kind of had it turn around the later half of the season, right? They've gotten better at getting after the quarterback, whether that

scheme or just kind of figuring out the rhythm between the defenders because it was a new D-line, right? And they kind of had to figure out to play with each other. So yeah, this Atlanta team, it might be a spark they needed, right? That QB changed. That could be something they needed. And now the books haven't caught up to it because they don't adjust to this new, this new quarterback situation. So yeah, I like it. I feel like it. I feel like it. I feel like it. I think we're beating the book here on this one. Yeah, I like it too. And if we can still get the four and a half in the contest by all means. I love it. The thing is we're not going to get three and a half. We haven't looked at the contest lines yet. It hasn't gone below four. So we're going to get the

four and a half. Last game of the week, Detroit visiting San Francisco. We're going into the foxhole. This is going to be it. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Detroit got down to three yesterday. I bet it at three. I'm assuming you bet it at three.

My last Christmas Day gift. It was the last thing in my stocking. It's gone back up to three and a half. It's probably what the contest line is going to be. I guess I don't care that much. That's where we freaking thrive. You did it again. You always find a way to win.

Detroit wants to go in and dominate. I think San Francisco was trying to figure out what they're going to do. next year. Yeah, I told you, I was all really to me about what Dan Campbell was going to say. And if he came out and was honest and said, yeah, we're going to arrest guys. I would probably agree with the professionals who were betting this 49ers team and be like, okay, now I get why they're hammering this 49ers side. It went the other way. Campbell was basically saying like, no, we're not that type of team. I'm having everyone play. We plan on going up there and dominating and winning in San Francisco. So we're road warriors. All right, we're in rare air right now.

All right, we're all supposed to be here together, man. We're destined for this. Just stay the course. This 49ers team still feels like they're getting respect from the books from last year. And every week, even last week, right, they were, I think they opened as a two and a half point dog and they closed as a one and a half point favorite. Makes no sense. Yeah, but it's been like that all year that the people mainly professionals. Them and the jets, the whole freaking season.

Yeah, it's true, though. they just can't help themselves and that was very glaring like you just said the fact that this got down to three like that's some really really smart money moving that to three like that again we talk about time it's not that they have it every book they might hit one or two books and every book follows off of that movement that's how respected that money was that came in but as soon as that dan campbell interview happened it went right back up so um i think the books don't know what to do with it. They're they're they're kind of in between and you know obviously three was a gift. I'm glad we both got it but as long as this is below six I think we're getting a great number like

that's why again I don't know what I'm missing you. I have this as such a higher game because the only fear with Detroit right now is going up against good offense so that can move the ball on them right that's the fears they could they can be back doored by teams now because of the struggling defense they have but this ain't that like this is not that type of matchup and um you know, we've seen golf. We always jerked about him outdoors. That hasn't mattered yet this season either. Like they've been so dominant because of that run game

that sets up everything through the past game that, yeah, like Gibbs, this matchup for him is great. They have, I don't want to say Fred Warner slow, but he's got, he's been playing with major injuries. And we've seen their linebackers have struggled getting on the outside. That's what they want to do with Gibbs. Like that's just such, that's literally what they want to do with him,

and especially setting up the past. So yeah, this is another game, just like last week. I'm hoping we don't scare it off of because, you know, we talked about last weekend said Bears. It was basically 95% of the tickets, 95% of the money was on this team in the Lions. And it went from 7 to 6 and a half. So we were like, what's going on here? I mean, they won by what, double digits.

So I feel like it's the same thing here. They're trying to scare us off at Chad. We're in the foxhole. We will not be scared. Yeah, right now, 87% of the tickets, 96%. of money on the Lions. Yeah. I will not be afraid.

This is the year. We've been seeing it. There's a couple games that we like, that are road favorites. We're going to have to decide, are they both going to make it in? We're talking about the chargers and the Niners. You know, right now, I think they do.

If we're looking at the list, if we're taking one of them out, it's going to probably be for the Saints. So it's a very good chance that we end up with two road favorites in the contest. It's kind of year it's been. Yeah.

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your performance. podcast. What's up fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about Define the Odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard

guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get to flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers while he got the bar like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah. You figure it out real quick. Get your ass up. Get your ass up. and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate that I felt it was. the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No.

I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever, because everything that had

existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, hope from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man.

If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream of chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Pulturra podcast network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Each week, we give out a two-team moneyline underdog parlay, and Bet365 boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.

And remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo. where your money line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at bet 365. This week's boosted parley after a spirited debate in the chat during the show, which is what you might have heard when Simon said, no, we can't do the Saints. We're going with Carolina as an eight, eight and a half point dog, and Atlanta. All NFC South boosted parlay. Find the boost under either the Broncos or Falcons.

game pages on bet 365. Okay, our money-lined underdog round robin. Denver. Atlanta. Carolina. Minnesota. I know you want to put Minnesota in there.

New Orleans. Do you want to go New Orleans or should we go upside? I mean, it pains me to say this. Should we go upside of Dallas in case Hertz is out? And, you know, they might be playing Ian book. Like, this is, I'm just trying to find big value here. There's some good big dogs. Whatever you want to do, Simon, you clearly don't want to do, you clearly don't want to do

New Orleans. I mean, they're plus 100. Dallas is plus 270. Yeah, I get that. but we don't like New Orleans, we know that there's not going to be anyone in the field. So we know what we're getting into. It's like that scene in an airplane,

you know, a movie that only people my age remember where there's like a debate between two newscasters and he's like, Shane I, they bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say,

let them crash. That's kind of what we're doing when we bet on New Orleans. Oh, we could do New Orleans. And you love it. I'm dug in. We'll give one to chat, yeah. G-E-A-U-X, go Saints.

Let's do it. Who are your biggest bets right now, buddy? I mean, honestly, I've been pretty lacking just because of the holiday. I would say Detroit, I went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus three and a half, I've honestly bet it up. I'm feeling very chalky with that one. Panthers, as you know,

no eight eight and a half whatever i could get my hands on i was betting that um now that we're here i feel like i'm going to be heavy on teasers this week like eagles taking the eagles down taking buffalo down taking the colts down i really like all those favorites just just to win those games and um it just feels like that kind of weak we've hit that point now i mean i haven't already talked about it basically dogs are only winning outright 25% maybe even less right now since it was like week eight or seven. So it's been brutal, brutal if you're a dog better. But if you're someone that loves doing teasers, they've been hitting. Like the chalk has just been hitting. So not as heavy on the dogs this week as I usually am. Been leading more towards the favorites in week 17.

All right. Before we get to Evan, reminder, if you're participating in the favorites pickum contest, your picks must be in by 1 p.m. on Saturday, not Sunday. All Saturday games are in the contest this week. Everybody must make picks by 1 p.m. on Saturday. Get those picks in. One p.m. Saturday, not Sunday for Week 17. We've mentioned him so much. It's time to finally have him on the show. Evan Abrams. Take us through it. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. Well, Chad, I'm still waiting to try to figure out exactly what we were discussing earlier, but I can give you some information. Basically, what I wanted to know was are dogs of plus two or plus two and a half covering as frequently this season as dogs of plus

three or three and a half because that is becoming so much more of a key number. And I want to know if we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not considering games that get to two and a half because we don't want to play anything below three, and that might not be the right answer anymore. Got it. I looked up the favorites part, so I'll just invert it. So it looks like teams to close plus two and plus two and a half are 16 and 19 against the spread.

Teams to close plus three and plus three and a half. Here's some fun math. 25, 31, and three against the spread. Wow. So both are loser numbers. Both are loser numbers right now. The biggest, the thing I thought was interesting, and I did it from a favorites point of view, misunderstanding a little bit, but it looks like a minus two for favorites, minus three and a half have been above 500. The only number below 500 has been minus two and a half, which Simon seems to talk about all the time. But it has been a loser from the favorites point of view this year, 11 and 14. Wait, but you just said favorites. So everything I gave you was underdard. Right. But if minus two and a half is a... Minus two went eight and two against the spread this year. So teams to close minus two, eight and two ATS.

Minus two and a half, 11 and 14. I see. So if you add them up, it's still two, two and a half as a loser for the dogs, but two has been a winner. Yeah, correct. For obviously a small sample size and a single season. So interesting. Okay.

All right. Let's keep rolling here. So picking your games this week to try to give you a little, bit of a boost, some, you know, confidence was interesting looking at the scripts from Tuesday, but I think I did all right here. So we're going to start with Denver. So you mentioned the great Bo Nix stat earlier that Raybon gave you. I got one more for you. So Cincinnati's defense are sacking opponent QBs about 2.8%, which is bottom third of the league. This year, Bo Nix, 8&0, ATS versus defenses with an opposing sat percentage of 4% or less. He is 2 and 4 ATS with a number

above that 4% with a little more pressure. It's a great stat, Evan. Great stat. Yeah, it just rolls exactly into it. I thought that was perfect. So that worked out well. That worked that well. Simon's leaning in.

He feels so good about that. Honestly, I'm about to go hammered Denver now after here. Because I already liked it. We need to bet on a dog. We need so bad. All right. This one was a little bit more tough. So you like the Saints this week.

I looked up this stat and then I'll throw two trends at you, which kind of fall right and white. line, but you asked if, like, the Raiders should be favorites in this game as kind of like a question. Here's a great one. So the Raiders are coming off a game where they are, where they broke a 10 game straight up losing streak. They would be the first team since December of 1968 to be favored in a game after

breaking a 10 plus game straight up losing streak within the same season. So in this situation, when the team out of nowhere wins a game shockingly, they usually just fall back to where they are. They don't end up as a road favorite in this situation. which is exactly what the rate is are sitting in. So maybe the line is wrong. And then you've kind of mentioned this before. So teams after getting shut out, 30 and 15 against the spread at 67% last decade.

And then teams with a win percentage below 40% who just lost by 30 plus 90 and 66, 58% since 2003. So yeah, like the Saints are the right historical side here. You're just picking two garbage cans, you know, flying down the river and hoping that one of them goes faster than the other. Okay, last one, Bryce Young. I looked into this because I think we all kind of believe what you guys have been preaching. So here's his improvement. So he's been using his legs lately. In his first three starts, and remember, O and 3 ATS and that, eight scrambles, 34 yards.

Week 9 on, which has been this hot streak for him, 22 scrambles, 190 yards, and three touchdowns. He's also been much more accurate, especially downfield. So in his first three starts, he had a negative completion percentage over-expected. Now, that is based off depth of throw, which is how the stat gets correlated. That was second worst in the NFL in the first eight weeks. Week nine on, he's now top of the league in that stat, top half of the league in that stat. And then finally, his catchable ball percentage, which just gives the offense more of a chance, is up almost five full percentage points.

And his turnover-worthy throws down 2.6% between those two periods. So honestly, Bryce Young playing better and it's showing up in the stats because Carolina now six and one ATS in their last seven games. Best mark in the NFL over that span. And they started the year, O and three ATS. So sometimes quarterback play doesn't exactly show up in the results. It's front and center here, guys. You know who else has a high catchable ball percentage? Tommy John.

Simon, I'm feeling better and better. I can't wait to put the Saints in our top five. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bed 316. and now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary, bet 365.

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