The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 18

Episode Date: January 2, 2025

A New Year for gamblers has arrived, just in time for the wackiest annual week of the NFL regular season. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to talk best bets for NFL Week 18. Together they discuss a number of opportunities for long-suffering underdogs to finally win outright, including a huge number on the Kansas City Chiefs. Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline underdog parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more.  And as a reminder, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is wrapping up! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners ending this weekend. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in.

I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsClace on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really

not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need. to listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal

but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put

on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I'm live. From my tummy John home studio, and I'm joined, as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional betor, Simon, Hunter.

Hello, Simon. Chad, is it a new year, new chat, or is it same old Chad? I love myself. Why would I want to change? I feel great. I feel optimistic. I feel like my New Year's resolution every year. I have one New Year's resolution.

Live up to my potential. It's all I'm going to try to do. Every day, try to do something to make sure I'm living to the fullest of my potential. And if you do that every day, then at the end of the year, you can look back and say you've achieved great things. It could be as a parent, as a spouse, as a career journey, as a health journey, whatever it is. So I don't want to change a thing. I'm fucking doing great.

How about you? It's good, man. I'm literally the total opposite of you. I've learned in life, if you don't try it all, that's the only way to succeed. So, yeah, God bless you, Chad. It's so funny how different we are. If you listed sort of your traits, how you approach life, how you see people, how you view the world, and the same things for me, people would think you're the old guy and I'm the young guy,

and that you've seen it all, you're world weary, that you're, world weary, that you, have a perspective that comes from years and years and decades of hard-fought experiences. And I'm just like the irrational optimist who hasn't been beaten down by the world yet. So we're perfect for one another, brother. Today is our NFL week 18 best bets episodes last best bets during the regular season. final time, Simon and I will narrow down our five picks for the favorites, $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. We will get into the foxhole.

We will give out our Tommy John big balls. Bet of the week, we're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line underdog, Parlay, the underdog, round robin, and so much more. Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as our volume podcast. boss. Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365 customers get $150

in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary, that Bet365 must be 21 or older. present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky, gambling problem called 1-800 gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Okay. It's my favorite segment. I saw someone the other day. Last week, someone said to me, you know what my favorite segment on the show is? Sharp calls. So as always, on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are,

responding to our Tuesday conversation, we are influential lines move off of these conversations. Pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody saying, baby, what you doing? Yeah, definitely a fun week with all the,

I feel like it's a week of just opinions, right? People making opinions and then kind of making movies. based off of the coaches' opinions, right? That's the other thing, too. It's like this week you're really locked in on all the stupid coaches' press conferences, and you're trying to read through the lines of what they're saying here.

And let's start on what sides of the pros on the opposite side of us. So Chad likes the Chargers, I like the Chargers. They love their Raiders. Like every private talk to loves the Raiders in the spot. And I'm not, I don't get it, Chad. So that's the game we have to break down because I really don't understand

what they're getting from this Raiders side and that they see the Chargers having a letdown here or not trying or maybe resting starters. Does Hardball strike you? Is that guy at all? I just do not get what they're reading here in this one. We've got intel on this, and this sounds like it's going to be a faxel.

Yeah, just one that really popped out to me, just how many guys I talked to that were on the other side of that one. For another game that I think that I talked about it on Tuesday that I really liked Minnesota and that I was going to probably most likely bet heavily on Minnesota, plus three. I've talked to a lot of pros that love Detroit. So that's a really fun split game. There's some really smart money on Detroit and for good reason, right? It's a proven team that's been there before and what's going to feel like a playoff game against Sam Donald. Like I get

their perspective that they think he's going to choke and they trust golf and they want to put their money behind a guy like golf like can't argue against it. Right. So that was another one I really jumped out for two games that I'm on the other side of for games they like that. We like, Chad, bangles. I know a game we're going to break down. You know, most guys I've talked through on the same side of us with the Bengals. Same goes for this Jaguars game. We love. It got up to plus five at a couple of books.

Now it's down to plus four and a half, plus four at a couple books. So it makes sense. The smart monies come in. And obviously, darling, I should have taken, should have listened to chat, should have made Simon says the Giants. I don't know a single pro right now that's on this Eagles team.

It just feels like the exact type of game where Eagles, not that they want to lose, but the coaches already come out and basically said that they're sitting a bunch of key starters and it's most likely going to be the third string quarterback playing in this game so yeah very very interesting how much money's coming to the giants they were plus three and a half before seriana came out and said he's sitting sayquan in a bunch of starters so that number now chat is down to two two and a half uh like i said i wish i had made it simon says and for the last one again me and you love, I don't know how much, actually I don't know how much dad loves.

I just love it. I love Tennessee. Every product talk to you loves Tennessee in this exact spot. So that's going to be Joe Public on Houston. Only professionals are going to bet Tennessee who are two and 14 against the spread. So makes sense when I'm talking to these guys why no one loves this Tennessee side. I freaking love it. A couple games you pinpointed here that I'm very excited to talk about.

definitely the Chargers, definitely Tennessee. And there's a couple others too that I want to get to. But it feels like there is a foxhole bet there that sometimes it's harder to figure these out. But I think we know which one it's going to be. We'll also do our big balls. Buffalo at New England. So this one has moved from three to two and a half. Very, the drama, and you talked about it the other day, about the Patriots and fans hating the Patriots.

and fans hating the Patriots. It's so interesting because there is a lot of speculation here in the Northeast and in New England about Gerard Mayo. Well, the Patriots walk away from Gerard Mayo after one year. The crafts personally anointed him as the Bill Belichick successor, while Bill Belichick was still the coach. Mike Vrabel is now available. Vrabel is beloved.

Vrable is a proven head coach who has had great results. We love Vrable as a coach, especially when he's an underdog. That to me is always the sign of a good coach is you can cover and you can win. So as an underdog, would they bounce Mayo for Vrable? Mayo this week has said, Drake May is starting. They're going to play to win. They have the number one pick. If they lose, line has moved to two and a half.

Yeah, I could get why Patriots fans be so pissed off. It's like, don't you see what we're trying to do here? I get why they're so mad about it. But that conversation about them not picking up variable just because relationships and what they believe in, you know, Mayo might be a good guy, all that. You know when you know, right? Like, you know when a guy is a legit coach and when they're not. And, you know, you can just tell about the players react to them.

And I remember early in the year, he was just talking about them being the soft and not playing hard and different things like that, which again, wouldn't be a big deal, but he's saying it to the media. Like that was one of the more bizarre interviews. And, you know, anyone that loves football like we do, they know Vrable was a better coach. Come on now. The guy took a Ryan Tanehill corpse to be the one seat. Like that really happened in the AFC, which is just mind-blown. You look back on it. That's right. He was able to get that team to be a one seat. So, yeah, the question is, Chad, do we want to bet on Mitch Rubiskey here in our final five? That's, that's going to be end of end question.

because we know even with their backups and non-starters in there, I just trust the Bill's coaching staff, their scheme, what they can do more so than I trust New England. And this line warrants that, right? It makes sense that they're still a minus two and a half, minus two and a half, minus three favorite of most books. But yeah,

like this is another game where me and you obviously don't like betting favorites. This is not the line. Like there's a lot of dogs I just like this week. So I'll be on Buffalo, but it's not a game I'm forcing in there. I just think they're the better team. And I really wish someone would just explain to, you know, Mayo, that if you win this game, you could get fired. Like, I do think the noise would be turned up by the fame base.

I don't know if Kraft could avoid that because it's, it's inexcusable to start May here, in my opinion. Especially the hits he's been taking, like he got his bell run last week. And he came right back in. I think the first play he was in, he ran down the field, which is awesome. Like shows he's got a hard and he's a tough kid. but at the same time, what are we doing here? Like, are we really going to waste this kid in this type of game where I'm just so against it? So, yeah, from the betting side chat, two and a half, I'll bet the bills, but with very small confidence, we're betting Mitch Trubisky.

Yeah, the crafts have just lost a lot of credibility with fans over the last 24 months between the documentary in which it seemed like Bob Kraft was throwing Belichick under the boss, sticking with. With Mayo in this spot just could be another blow to the confidence of fans in the ownership group. Nothing's going to change. It's not like they're going to get rid of the team. But this is a real chance for them to make a substantial move to improve their organization, especially if the Patriots win this game and lose the first pick. Oh, my gosh. Houston and Tennessee.

For 17 weeks, Simon, we have avoided the Titans. it might be our greatest success. They have shown value against power rankings in nearly every game they've played. In 14 of those games, you alluded to this, they did not cover the spread. No matter what happens in this game, they will go down as the worst against the spread team since we've been tracking this. Maybe in NFL history, Evan can confirm that later in the show. they're currently 2 and 14.

In week 18, Simon, they are, our Simon says. And now we got word that the wise guys are all over the Titans. Give it to me.

Lay it on me. Yeah, and it is interesting when you're reading about what the Texans are going to do in this spot and who they are resting. Obviously, CJ's not playing this. A couple key starters. Nico Collins isn't playing.

A bunch of guys' winners not playing on the defense. When you go on the flip side for Tennessee Titans, everybody's playing. Like the coach, not that he scoffed at it, but he kind of laughed. It's like,

no, they're about to get whatever we said, a six-month vacation after this. Not direct quote from him, but basically gave us a slanted like a little look to the reporter being like, what will we, yeah,

exactly. What kind of stupid question is that? So we know the stats, right? Will Levis, two and nine against the spread. Mason Rudolph, 0 and 5 against the spread.

this season. So it doesn't matter what quarterback is playing. This team is just all around bad. But like we talked about, they're in this unique position of people don't understand how desperate teams get for a win. Like it's it's a different type of high, but it's a high that they crave, right? It's it's something that you just need it. Every week you lose, the world looks a little darker. Everything feels a little shittier. Everything sucks. And you just know, especially they talk to guys in this locker and why they've been trying so hard these last couple weeks because again they have not been playing for anything Tennessee but every week even though they've been losing they still play really hard I really think that is something like you

turn on the tape you can see it I mean their defense like you've been talking all season I know I laughed at it but their defense is like second or third and giving up yards the season least amount of yards like they've been really good at not teams not moving the ball against them the issues have been right just giving up touchdowns like they can't stop teams it seems like in the red zone so yeah this is what to me is all about the number there is one really public book out that there still had Tennessee at plus one and a half last night now even them have moved to minus one so even even at this point they've followed the professional money because I'm looking the action app right now all the tickets all the tickets are on Houston but the money is basically split right

it's it's slanted towards this Tennessee team so yeah would have we would have liked it if they were a dog yes we definitely mean chat hate lines that flip it just has never worked out for us for the most part. But in this one I feel confident that the smart money is coming on the right side. The money is moving the way it should. And this is another team Tennessee that, you know, if the Patriots win, they lose, they could get the one seed. These guys don't care. Like they're like, like, we just talked about the same thing in New England. Like they're, they're kind of going the idea of we just want to win. And I get it. That's that's part of football right. No one cares about the draft picks. They don't know if they'll be on the team next year. So this Tennessee team, I just, I can see them

trying really hard on the flip side with Houston. I just, I just, I just, I, I'm happy to bet against their second team. There's just a team that, to me, was already bad coming to this game. The whole vibe of Houston was bad. Now we're getting in their scrubs for the second team. So I like Tennessee in this matchup. Simon, goes back to what I said at the beginning of the show. People just want to live up to their potential.

They just want to try. They want to feel satisfied with the effort. They want to go to bed at night. Know that they gave it their all. and feel good that what they exercised during a week paid off in some capacity. And the Titans have just not felt that. And the Titans, from everything I've read, I've been digging in, you know, reading all that I can about coaching moves, GM moves, trying to get anything about some incentive for this

week. Seems very likely that the Titans are going to bring back their GM. They're going to bring back their coach. and they're going to try to find the quarterback that the three of them together can build this franchise as they're really thinking about they got a new stadium opening in two years.

How can they get better? They're going to give that team the opportunity and that executive team the opportunity to turn this thing around and get the right player. They don't have to worry about sort of tanking or not playing up to the best of their ability. I'm with you.

I'm with you. with you. Another one, Jacksonville at Indy, still no word on Anthony Richardson. So, uh, you know, would you see the reports about him? That he couldn't walk last week. Yeah, he couldn't walk a week ago. Yeah. Like, so, but they're still saying if he is healthy, he'll play. That's insane. But like, we, we lean jags. I think we feel strongly about it, more strongly about it this week or now than we did on Tuesday. to me it's more of a vibe than anything on the field, right? Jags have been trying hard.

They've been keeping games close. Mack Jones has been outperforming bad quarterbacks. They won. And the cult culturally just feel like they're a little bit lost. And I think that game took the wind out of them and is raising a lot of questions about, will Shane Stuyken still be there? What is their future a quarterback?

what is happening with their GM, who you mentioned the other day, Chris Ballard, has a reputation as a great GM, has not won the division in eight years, a division that has terrible teams year in and year out. This is not the NFC north of 2024. So they are locked into Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback. Draft position is not going to mean as much for them. Normally, based on last week's performance, we'd fade the Jags and want to bet the Colts, but I don't feel that way this week. No, and honestly, it's because it is the Colts that the Jags, they historically have matched up really well.

It was just like we talked about last week, the Eagles and Cowboys. There's just certain teams that teams can match up really well against. And that same goes here for this Jack team that they've always, even when there's, you know, ups and downs of the quarterbacks or their quarterbacks hurt, they've always played really well against this Colts team and kept games close. And usually their games end up being shootouts, like especially when it's in an Indianapolis. So this to me is all about the number. Like this number is way too big, way too much respect. Even if it is Anthony Richardson, I could see it dropping because I just think the books

give more respect to Joe Flacco, but, you know, four and a half for way too many points for us to pass. I'm like, I love this number. I love this Jags team. And what we just talked about, like, I just, the vibes for this Jacks team just feels so much better. We're like them going in and winning this game, that makes more sense to me so much more than the Colts. winning this game. Colts, to me, like, they're, they're done. Like, half their team feels like they're already half foot out the door and they're ready to go on vacation. They're just disgusted with their front office. They're disgusted with the coaching. And, you know, that was one of the least prepared teams I've seen all season last week against that Giants team.

Like, even going back, watching the tape just defensively, Gus Bradley was just awful. Like, again, that's a man that's guaranteed to be let go on a different team next year. So, yeah, we're just simply playing the number of your Chad, like the matcher for this Jags team and just the way they've been down the stretcher. It's just the team that has not quit. Surprisingly, they've improved in some ways. And I know the dirty secrets kind of is out right now that Doug Peterson's basically gone and they're going to have the guy. I know you want Ben Johnston from lines and they're apparently going to give him just whatever he wants, which is really interesting to know, will he leave the division NFC North and go down there where it's like,

I don't know. Again, I understand it's all lined up perfectly for the bears where it's like you guys are getting a guy who knows the Detroit offense and how to take down the big bad wolf here in division him going to him going to the jags would be buried the bears the bears the bears just don't spend enough money or give him enough to do whatever he wants and he leaves to go to the jacksville just because if they're going to let him make decisions on the draft that's a big deal like first time head coach now he gets to make decisions on the draft as well so yeah for jackson we all know that these players they seem like they like Doug peterson one more one more game for Dougie.

Give me plus four and a half on this Jaguars team. Simon, I 100% believe that Ben Johnson is going to the Jags. I don't think the Bears have a shot right now. You know, I don't have any insight. But just knowing the Bears' history, knowing how the Bears manage the coaching interview process, knowing that they have not been able to overcome, knowing the coaches have not been able to overcome ownership issues

in multiple generations, other than Mike Dicca. Other than John Fox, was he the last one? Now, Lovie Smith took him to the Super Bowl. Yes, you're right. Lovy was great. And he got fired in the worst way, right? They had bad karma from that firing of Lovie. The Bears fired a coach who took him to the Super Bowl

and was 10 and 6. the year he was fired. So I think they've got executive staff dysfunction, right? Because we don't really know how involved Kevin Warren is going to be the new president, the president, in any of these decisions. They've always been cheap. You can go to the AFC South. If you like Trevor Lawrence, that's the one critical factor.

Ben Johnson has to like what he has in Trevor Lawrence, right? The Jags are invested in him. We don't think he's been that great. He has underperformed. But if you like him and think he can run your offense, you got a better chance in winning than you do in the NFC North over the next three to four years. And that's your horizon as a coach.

So I would not be surprised at all if he blew off the bears and went to Florida where it's warm and you don't pay taxes and, you know, you got a better shot. I don't have a porn hub, though. What's that? I don't know what you said. Before we get to Washington at Dallas. These are the final days of our favorites pickham contest.

Saturday games are not in the contest this week, but we've got D. Winsenberg in first place with 61 points and nine entries at 56 points or more. A dog fight to the finish. First place is 40 grand. Second is 10 grand. Third place is 5 grand. Cash prizes for the whole top 10.

Excited to crown a winner. It's not going to be us. hopefully we get the winner on the podcast. Whoever it is, the invite is open. Washington at Dallas. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, news?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend.

But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind.

Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves.

their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast. network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite

therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross,

because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing,

growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search learn the hard way and listen now. In Dallas on Tuesday, the line has moved in that direction. It's four and a half. Did you see the clip of Eagles fans cheering Jerry Jones in Philly last week? Yeah, yeah, ultimate troll job.

So good. And Jerry's just smiling, laughing, you know, just so funny. Just great to see Jerry owning it all. I think it's better than 50-50 Mike McCarthy stays if it's Jerry Jones's choice. He might leave because his contract is up and he can go look anywhere he wants to look. But fascinating subplot here, I do think there's been a sea change and sort of people believing McCarthy will stay if he has the option and Jerry Jones wants him to and he decides that's the best option for him. If he leaves, it might be because he wants to leave. I don't think that has an impact on this game.

I just thought it was interesting. Yeah, I saw Sheffey talked about how basically all of his assistance as well or deals are done. So he'd basically need to resign all the guys on his coaching staff. So, yeah, it's as an Eagles fan, I kind of want them to bring McCarthy back just because I fear the unknown that if they do get a guy like Vrabel, that would be disastrous for us. But, yeah, Jerry's in a weird spot. And this Cowboys team's in a weird spot where it's like, me and you both love it because of the number and the letdown we expect from Washington

in this exact game. But this is another game I'm betting with very little confidence just because my fear is, this Cowboys team is basically just on their last leg. Like they have guys who've had big injuries. They've come back and they've played through it at this point. But you can just tell that like even that Egos game, they were not into that game at all.

So this is going to be another game where the public is going to hammer the commanders. We'll see if they get lucky again, Chad, because this is again, another good number against a team that's overvalued in the commanders. And, you know, we've seen it all season. Like the fourth down variance for the commanders has just been absolutely insane. I think in that game, we bet. I don't know if they went three for three or two for two, but it felt like every time they needed a big play on fourth down, it happened for him.

And, you know, it's historical. The six six six six six rate they've had on fourth downs. It's just insane this season. So we know what this bet's going to come down to. It's going to come down to fourth downs again. It's just, it's just how it's been betting against this Washington team. If they capitalize,

me and chatter most likely are going to burn. But this is just a number that's way too big. Like I think I'd probably, if this was a fully healthy with C.D. Lamb, you know, again, obviously this is different if Dax playing, but if it's C.D. Lamb with Cooper Rush, okay, we make this, what, three, three and a. half yeah the point the point bump makes sense right there should be four four and a

half at this point but it's just a spot where it's it you know we've seen this circle data teams that are playing for playoff positions going against a team that you know way below 500 that have not been good this year they tend to cover in this week that's why we love betting these type of dogs and the final week of the season just historically we've seen it right teams kind of play up to the moment try to be the spoiler obviously they're not gonna knock watch it now the the the playoffs here but if they do them, you know, Washington now, let's go face Philly. That's a big deal. So pretty, pretty interesting

what the Cowboys might do here. Everything I've read, it seems like, you know, Michael Parsons is playing, all their starters are playing. Only guy really missing is going to be CD, obviously. Yeah, and this commander's defense is terrible. And I'm not afraid of betting Cooper Rush as a four and a half point dog in this spot, even without CD. He's just been an effective backup quarterback and the Eagles have been the one team that he really can't unlock, right? And you look at the other games and I think that the problem for this year is that his first game was against the Eagles and it was so bad that it depressed the market on the Cowboys. And I think a lot of people have missed the value because they're only thinking about that first Eagles game. And then he started to play a little

bit better and they had a run. And then this past week he hit the Eagles again. And now I think the commanders are overvalued because of what they did against the Falcons, but also what the Cowboys did against the Eagles, I still think you're getting pretty nice price on the Cowboys here. I don't know if it's going to be

in our final five, but I'm not as afraid of the Cowboys in the spot as you are, or the commanders, for that matter. I think their defense is pretty bad. And I just want to cut you off on Tennessee, that line's running now. So basically everywhere that I had them as a dog basically has them up to minus one and a half now.

Oh, wow. Yeah, the money's starting to come in now here on Tennessee. All right, Carolina at Atlanta. It's time to celebrate. Look, Carolina plus eight. We both love the Panthers on Tuesday. I would imagine we still love the Panthers. The lines move from eight and a half to eight.

We cannot quit the Panthers right now, Simon, to remind people of the stakes. If the Bucks win, they're in. The Bucks lose, then the Falcons win. They're in. The games are at 1 o'clock. There will be some scoreboard watching. If it's at any point, bucks are blowing out the Saints

and there's no chance the Falcons are going to get in. The tide in this game could change. We could find the back door. But generally, we just like Bryce Young. We're going to continue to back Bryce Young. Give us the Panthers. Yeah, we can't quote them. And honestly, my confidence in this one has been coming from the breakdown of Pennix.

And I know, again, it's only two games. It's a very small sample. I get that. But it's actually pretty interesting statistically how, you know, I might have overrated him a little bit after his first game and that he actually isn't that great of a passer right now. And he's still kind of working through things, which we expect, right? It's his second now. This will be his third start. So that's a lot of the confidence to me is that, you know, this is a huge spread.

for a guy like him and we saw in that Giants game right the heat they they were kind of losing not fine they couldn't find themselves and all of a sudden you know drew through a pick six and that kind of reset that whole game where okay once they got the lead again they can lean back onto the running so that'll be the key for me it's like can they stop robinson which no one has done in the last 10 weeks right like Robinson has bargainly been a top three running back now um this season and he's been dominant and we know me and chad know because we've been betting them all season Panthers cannot stop the run. Like their best-

100 yards rushing allowed in five straight weeks. Right. So again, it's because one of their best de-linmen got knocked down, either week one or week two. And it was like, okay, that's- for the season, yeah. Yeah, that's the end of their run defense right there. Like, that's the guy for them.

And that's the fear here. That's the reason me and chat are getting eight points here just because of that. It's, we hope, right, Sean, going to keep this in this, but this is really going to come down to stopping the run and putting this all in penics. Like you need to stack the box, make this kid beat you with his arm, just because like I said,

he's high variance in his throws. Like, he throws uncatchable balls, and, you know, I don't know if it looks weird to you, but seeing him throw left, it is different. Like we talk about time. That is a difference for these receivers

catching a left you throw than a righty throw, and it just looks different coming out of his hand to the receivers. So this to me just feels like an inflated line, especially because Carolina just got rolled, absolutely blown out the week before. and they've been good to us bouncing back.

Them burning me and Chad one last time would not be shocking to the least. No. But I just can't help myself. I believe in Bryce Young, believe in their offense. And I really do think we'll be either I have a chance to win this game outright

or an easily have a chance to back during this summer. It just feels way too big, way too much respect to this Atlanta team. I also don't worry about effort in this game. This is a team where they know the coach is going to be back. They're starting to get a pretty good sense of who their quarterback is. They've built momentum

him in the latter half of the year. Yeah. They don't want to end the year on a shitty game with a bad taste in their mouth. They want, I think it matters to win the last game of the year if you're a bad team and be able to see positivity and have confidence and feel like you have some kind of momentum. So I don't have a problem back in the Panthers here at all. It's going to suck. We're going to do it.

Chicago plus 10 at Green Bay. This line has moved up. You like the Bears on Tuesday at 9. It's gone up to 10. The Packers need to win, and they need the commanders to lose to move up from the 7th seed to the 6thies. So there will be some scoreboard watching. And there are some trends that back the bears here. This was one of the saddest things of all the things about the bears that make me sad.

ESPN this week did a survey of 111 NFL players of the heart of the heart of the hard. places to play in the NFL. One, two, and three were Kansas City, Seattle, and Minnesota, actually. Four was Philly, by the way. And Matt Mitchell, five was Buffalo. But the Bears, Soldier Field, tied for 31st. After the Oakland Coliseum. I know the games in Green Bay this week, but I'm thinking about the Bears.

How pathetic is that? TIEF for 31st after Oakland Coliseum, I'll remind you, they don't play NFL games in Oakland anymore. I mean, honestly, it's pretty shocking just because I always thought Chicago is just the toughest place to play because not only the weather is brutal, but you guys, even when you're terrible, you sell out

and the fans are loud. So that's interesting. Maybe they're not as loud as we perceive on TV. They ruined the stadium. When they built the new alien spaceship inside a soldier field, it ruined the acoustics. It's not as loud as it used to be.

And also, like, the team's just bad. It's been bad for so long. People leave games early. And if it's really, really cold, then people who have season tickets are selling their tickets at the end of the year. So you're getting, you know, randoms who sometimes are super fans. Sometimes it's a holiday gift. They're just taking their kids. Like, I know it because, like, I have so many friends who have season tickets or have had season tickets over the past of four.

40 years. So it's not as loud as you would think it is. Not like 85 when I was sitting in the 20-yard line against the Giants and the Rams during the playoffs. Those were the days. Take me back to 85, baby. Damn, I missed 85. Dude, Sean Gale. Oh, my God. It was just amazing. People were smoking cigarettes in the stadium still. Damn, those were the days. They were, like, they were passing me drinks and I was, you know, 15 years old. I put a little hair in your chest. You're right. I don't want to bet this one.

I don't know what was wrong with you on Tuesday. I did bet this Chicago team, but no pros are on this game. I feel like most guys are avoiding this game for different games. And after reading Evans article gave me legit zero confidence in this Bears team. I think they're one in 10 straight up in their last 11 against this Green Bay team. And it's just, you know, like you said on Tuesday, that just, it's not even a rivalry anymore right it's just so one-sided um it's it's brutal so i might be eating these words come sunday and the bear shocked the world and do finally pull an upside off and i'm an idiot because

i didn't hammer this and stick my chest out on this one but um there's just other dogs i like better and you're right like the fear for me is that locker room for chicago is just totally out like they're just totally gone totally giving up on this team in this front office and they do know that this is not the coaching staff for next year so you're right there's there's there's really no other than personal incentives to play for this one. So, yeah, hate it all, all, everything coming out of Chicago right now is just so negative. I don't want to be putting money on this one. Reminder, bears have not won a road game on a Sunday since our friend Nick Falls did it for them in December of 21. All right. The game that we talked about earlier, sharp calls, New York Giants

plus two at Philly. Philly was fourth, toughest to play, Buffalo fifth. Sequin will not be playing. How do you feel about that? A wise man, once. said it best, Chad. Records can be broken. Banners hang forever. So yeah, do I want them to break the record so I can shove it down Giants face? Like yeah. I mean, it's been a great day. If you're just an ultimate hater of your division and talking shit to one another, it's been a fun week, especially on Reddit where, you know, Giants fans trying to make it's like, well, Eric Dickerson did it in 16 games. So it's not real a record. Well, I guess OJ did it in 14 games. Is that the real record?

Or Jim Brown, who did it in 10 games? Is that the real record? I mean, what are we doing here? So it's been a fun week of just trying to act like they're not pissed off for it. I don't know. Giants fans, they got to be down the worst of any fan base right now in football, especially after losing the number one pick last week. It was just, it's just been too good.

So, yeah, Sequin, I could see it in his eyes and the way he talked about it. He's bummed, right? He wants that legacy, like he said, that's something amazing to have attached to his last name. But as someone that knows that Seekwan's, ever had any playoff success, I think once he gets his first playoff win, that feeling will go away where he'll realize, like, dude, the ultimate goal here is to hang that banner. And, yeah, Eagles right now, I mean, I'm so we'll talk about it next week. Like, Hertz is still not even out a concussion protocol. Like, it's, it's bad if he's got a really bad concussion like that,

because that's just, those are the symptoms that just don't go away. Now he's two weeks in. So, yeah, between that, Sequin, you know, this Eagles team using this as a buy a week that's great. Giants just popped back up to plus three at a couple of really public books. So some smart money now is coming in on the Eagles here this morning, which is pretty surprising, but nothing changed in my position. I think the Giants, they're going to play hard. And the Eagles, you know, they're going to play the rookies, I guess, and a couple other guys. But for the most part, they're going to be sitting almost all their starters, especially across the offensive line. And we expect to be Tanner McKeea quarterback. Again, guy making his first start,

his career. I know he came in and did well against the Cowboys, but I feel like at that point, the Cowboys kind of had quit on that game. So yeah, we expect the Giants to keep shooting themselves in the foot, win this game, give themselves worse draft capo. But again, Evan had an amazing thing in his article about Brian Daibble. Like the guy has been money in these final weeks of the season. I believe he's 5 and 0 against the spread in the final two weeks of the season, right, Evan? So his teams play hard for him. He doesn't really care about draft position. He's got one thing in mind. win. So yeah, this match for the Eagles, I was really worried about they were going to play Sequin. But after Sierra Annis conversation yesterday, you know for a fact he's not playing,

guys like Lane Johnson's not playing. That's going to be a big deal, right? They're going to be wresting so many key starters. So yeah, just take the points here. I just think I get where the public's coming from. They're like, there's no way Giants went back-to-back weeks. I get it, but we always see these final weeks are just weird, right? These teams like the Eagles, the best statistical team of football, that is not going to be the same team on Sunday, right? They're not going to show anything defensively and they're not going to show anything offensively, right? They're just going to start preparing for the following week.

So I love this spot for this Giants team. I saw a clip of A.J. Brown, of Tanner McKee, realizing A.J. Brown had thrown the first touchdown pass into the stands. And he was handling it great. He's like, oh, that's too bad. and then AJ Brown, who felt so bad about it, ran over, told him that he got it back, said he was so sorry. Like, it was just, it was so genuine and authentic, like, how badly AJ Brown felt about it. I thought it was a great scene because, like, you get to see real connection and, like, how these players recognize what a big deal it is to throw a touchdown pass in the NFL.

and it doesn't matter if you're the first string, second string, third string, or the high profile, $100 million temperamental receiver, he recognized he screwed up and felt terrible for a guy who has a special moment and fixed it and then went over and apologize.

I thought it was just adorable. Yeah, it was hilarious. The guy who called the ball was like a very classic South Philly looking guy. Yes. He's like, I got you. I got you. Flux into him being like,

You guys are the heart and soul of this team. And then, of course, Big Don was the one that came over and got the ball. It just had all. So, yeah, very funny. That Don thing is, like, so easy to explain as a Philly phenomenon and hard to explain for anyone who doesn't follow sports or understand Philly sports culture. Yeah. There's nobody in the stands who have Big Don came over and said, give me the ball, wasn't

going to give Big Don the ball. You know what I mean? I just always think it's funny where you think about all the stuff we don't know about what Big Dom does. You know he's the guy showing up at 3M at the police station and get the guy out and drive him home. Like he just, he's a do-it-all guy. And I just love that he's become such a personality in Philly. I think he's the first guy that cops call. I think he's the first guy that anyone calls if there's anything going down and they need to fix something right away.

L.A. Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders. So this lines come down a little bit. You said the wise guys are liking the Raiders. Yeah. I get it. I get it. Jim Harbaugh. Well, I get like, you know, thinking, what are the Chargers playing for here?

They do have some seating to play for. They get the five seed if they win and the Steelers lose. So they will know, like, what they're playing for. By the time this game kicks off, it's one of the few games where seating will be, where the stakes will be determined and they won't have to scoreboard watch. But Harbaugh went on the Let's Go show with, you know, Jim Gray and Belichick said he was playing win the game. That's what I would fully expect from Jim Harbaugh. I would take that to mean he's not resting his starters. And if there are still stakes to be had, I don't mind betting the Chargers here.

It's like the reason why Road Favorites have been winning this year is usually because of good coaching and limited mistakes from their quarterback. That's what the Chargers have. It's why we liked him against the Patriots last week. I think you're getting a lot of love for the Raiders right now because they're on a two-game win streak. That doesn't phase me. If the Chargers have something to play for, and we'll know by the time we put our picks in, I like the Chargers. The Raiders, not that they just beat Jacksonville,

but they feel like they kind of got away with one there, right? There was like a last fourth quarter drive and they stole that game, and then they beat the Saints. Other than that, we've seen when they played any team that's semi-well-coached or outside the Chiefs, right? The Chiefs, their games were always weird against the Chiefs. We knew that. We took them against the Chiefs in that exact matchup,

but anyone else, you go through their schedule, they just get dominated. Like well-coached teams that are smart that have a good quarterback just dominate this Raiders team. That's exactly what we have here. Like when we talk coming to the season, I had doubts about Herbert being consistent for good reason. Even if he's been a little inconsistent, the second half, he's been great.

Like since he's come back, kind of healed from that injury, that ankle injury, especially his last couple weeks, you've really seen him be so confident and pushing the wall downfield, be totally in tune with this offense at this point. Like he looks so comfortable in this game. And I'm happy to know the Chargers hopefully will not be. sit in their starters because to me they should just keep the rhythm going on. Like yeah, they're a team that basically no one's going to believe for them in the playoffs, right? They're a year early at this point. That makes sense by people don't believe in them

because especially when we're talking about Lamar, Josh Allen and the Chiefs, it's like, okay, if it's Mahomes versus him in this exact scenario, we just think Mahomes gonna get the best them at the end of that game. But in these type of scenarios when he's playing bad teams, I just feel like Herbert shines and same with Harbaugh. So maybe this line movements because of what you just said. Maybe the pros who have been in Pittsburgh beating in CINCII. Maybe that's the thought here where it's just like they're combining these two because they're like, well, the Chargers will sit their starters because they have nothing to play for. But, you know, that's a decision. Me knew like you just said, we can make Sunday morning if we need to.

But I'm happy to lock this line in now because say they do get blown out Pittsburgh. Couldn't this line go up to six? I don't know. I just, I find it very interesting that it has moved so much. And yeah, I just, I love this Chargers team, especially when they're playing a bad key, a bad team, their coach is horrible. He's a psychopath. He's not going to take his foot off the gas. I just feel like they're going to go out there and try to whoop on this division foe. Jim Harbaugh is my New Year's Resolution spirit animal. I want to live up to the full, to my full potential. Jim Harbaugh says they're attacking week 18 with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. Don't gamble. Don't associate with gamblers.

avoid it like the plague. That's why I'm attacking this show. We didn't come into this show thinking, all right, it's week 18, can't really make any predictions. We digested it. Yeah. We did the work.

We watched the press conferences. Looked at the trends. We're coming in here. We're playing to win the week. We want to go five and out. We want to live up to our fullest potential every single week. We are the Jim Harbaugh-led Los Angeles Charters

of the favorites pick-ham contest podcasting world. You know me regards to what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. I want to talk about the Rams and Seattle. I did like him.

I liked Seattle at three on Tuesday. I did make it my executive decision. It's not been a great category for me this year. But I would like the full credit. at three. It moved to four during the show because I'm sharp and people hear what I'm saying and then they immediately start following me. It's now six and a half. Like, I'm not sure why the move happened so late. McVeigh had telegraphed. He was going to rest his starters. He had said it in his podcast earlier in the week. I talked about it on Tuesday. He said he was looking forward to

seeing Jimmy Garoppolo and Blake Corum play. So like, now he's confirmed it. I also mentioned and Gino has four million incentives that he's going for that are relatively easy to get. So we know he'll be playing. We like the Seahawks and playing for a new coach. They want to put good stuff on tape. They want to build momentum. It's up to six and a half now. We're not going to bet it put in the contest.

But it's amazing to me that it took so long for it to get that far. But I think you just nailed why it did because he basically confirmed it. and that's when you really saw the line shoot up to six, six and a half. Like when he came on and basically said, everyone's sitting, and I'm excited to see Jimmy be playing in this game. It's like, that was, to me, that was when the line really moved. Like, we were literally right when he had that press conference. Yeah, but isn't this about finding the edge, right?

Like, we had Intel and we had information, and McVeigh had sort of telegraph this when it was at three. Why were people waiting so long? That's when you want to bet, when you feel like you can get a sort of get a jump on the competition. Yeah, that's what I mean, though. Maybe they were just waiting from to really confirm it before they wanted to put on it. Cowards.

That's what I say. Powers. Yeah, I mean, it depends. When you're betting a certain amount of money, though, you want to be sure what you're betting on. So, yeah, this is a game where I'm happy we can avoid it now because it's moved too much. I honestly didn't want to have too much invested in this one just because, you know, Gino has not looked right since that knee injury. And that's the God honest truth.

Like he didn't look right the week before and, you know, at three, like you said, that to me was an amazing value and that was like a good number because it is him with starters going up against a backup of the Rams team. And we know how top heavy the Rams are as well. Like they're just like Houston. There are stars and scrub team. They're just a team of really good players and the bottom of it's really bad, right? They're really thin once you start going through the layers.

So the Rams here though, they are a young team. So I wouldn't be shocked if they do play a lot of the young starters on defense. But offensively, what I read, that's basically going to be the rookie running back and then, you know, backup quarterback and no Cooper, no Cooper Cup, no Pooka Naku. And it's like, you go down the line. It's like, okay, can Jimmy keep them in this game competitively? Sure. He can maybe keep this close. But do I see him winning this out right now?

So, yeah, I agree with your play at three at six and a half. That just feels way too rich to back the Seahawks team. By the way, I forgot to mention that the Los Angeles Chargers will be our foxhole bet. We are clearly on the opposite side. Otherwise, guys, more in that one than any other game this week. Los Angeles Chargers are the foxhole. Meanwhile, our big balls bet of the week. Presented by Tommy John.

If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great game start great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. That was me giving my big balls announcement to the fullest of my potential. Kansas City plus 10 and a half at Denver. It got up to 11 on Wednesday. There was a little bit of buyback. We're on the chiefs here.

I don't understand the chiefs at 16 and 1. I know who's playing and who's not, but they still have the best strategic, offensive mind in football, a quarterback who is not a 14-point difference from Patrick Mahomes in Carson Wentz, this is just too big of a number. It makes no sense to me whatsoever.

No, and it's going to be the most public dog of the week, right? Because I think everyone's in agreement with us of, this line's way too big and I think they originally moved it this high because there were whispers that Carson Wentz was going to sit in this game too that they didn't want to risk injuring him either and they were going to play their third string

and then Andy came out yesterday and said no it's it's Carson the weirdest thing is that it hasn't moved like it went down from a couple books out of 11 yeah it went to 10 and a half but I thought this would be 8 and a half eight after the announcement it was Carson you're right it's like

is he really 14 15 points worse than Mahomes It feels like it's a bit dramatic, especially when, you know, we've come to realize, as special as Mahomes is, you know, especially, you can't duplicate how he's so confident and great in the pocket, everything like that. But we talk, it's, and you're reading the scheme is something that's very, very, very, very important to this team. And, you know, obviously Mahomes have the numbers this year because they basically would

just run the ball the whole second half and just ball control teams. I don't even think he made, I'd have to look, but I'm pretty sure he missed the Pro Bowl, right? You didn't make the Pro Bowl. Right. And it's like, you know, guy comes off two Super Bowls, goes 15-01, but he doesn't have the stats because their team is just so smart. He knows they don't need to force balls downfield. They can just run the second half, and I'll never have the stats to make the pro-ball.

And, you know, that's just part of it. It's a team sport. That's why we love football, right? It's the ultimate team sport. So, yeah, this is a line that me and Chad love, going to have them the money line around Robin. This is just the best part of the final week of the season. Like a team like this that no one's going to believe in can kind of shock the world.

here but unfortunately people do believe this one like I said this is going to be the most public dog most likely the week because I think everyone's just like me and chat they're all just like best team of football over 10 points take that best team like I'm with them like it's very caveman very simple don't overthink this one just take the points with this and I'd be shocked shocked if this doesn't go below 10 before kickoff I just can't see what professional is putting real money on this Denver team at this big of a favorite with a rookie quarterback which essentially is another playoff game. Like this is a legit playoff game. It might not be to the Chiefs and yeah, they're playing backups here, but, you know, Andy Joked, it's fun playing spoiler. If they can play spoiler

here, he's going to try to do it. So I love this number for this Chiefs team. Shocked, shocked, I tell you, that is our Tommy John. Big Balls Better the Week. Simon, it's a whole new year, 2025. I don't know if you know this, but one year ago, my life was total chaos. And it was only after months of searching that I came to realize the source of this chaos, inferior, low quality underwear. Flippant resolutions come and go, but the choice to permanently transform your life for the better can start right this second. And with a special sale for our listeners, Tommy John is standing by to make that transformation

happen with thousands of transformative five-star reviews, everyone can see Tommy John will help put you on a path to becoming a whole new person for the long year ahead. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John in the year 2025? It's the gift that last. Right now you can shop Tommy John.com slash favorites for the holidays and get 25% off. your first order save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential. title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slice Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't really really.

that we are in possession of the thing, and we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth,

or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway.

Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Okay. Last one on the board, Minnesota plus three now at Bet365 at Detroit. You liked Minnesota on Tuesday. You had good reasons for doing it. I don't want to bet this game just because I want Detroit to win so badly. I'd rather just pass, miss the edge on Minnesota, than bet against the Lions.

You mentioned sharp calls, wise guys like Detroit. Yeah. My feeling here is just, this is a team that is impossible not to love. You get so few windows in the NFL to live up to your potential. And I think the Lions have that shot right now. Very good chance. Aaron Glenn is gone next year. He's done as well as he can with 30.

and four stringers and guys off the street. Likely Ben Johnson is gone. Not that they're not replaceable. But this transformation, the entire country has been behind this team turning it around. And I just, look, I'm a sentimental guy. I'm rooting for these three coaches and this team to win the Super Bowl together, reach the height. everyone can go off to their own separate ways,

graduate into something else, but I want them to achieve it together. I want them to win the number one seed. I want them to rest. I want them to get their defensive players back. I don't want to bet this game because if the right side is Minnesota, I don't want to be right.

And you're very nice to say that them losing their assistant, you know, coaches won't matter, but it will. Like it's, we've seen it time and time again. I mean, I lived it as an Eagles fan. Like, we went and won the Super Bowl.

Yeah, that's right. We lost our OC and our DC, and we basically just went into hell. Well, I don't know what you're talking about. You won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles and Doug Peterson. You lost the Super Bowl and then lost your coordinators. I can't remember who the coordinators were when Doug Peterson was the coach. No, your favorite guy is coaching the Colts.

No, but that's when they lost. with Siriani. You lost Gannon and Stuyken. And, you know, the silver line and hope is the Eagles were the first team in NFL history to have a whole different coaching staff and make a Super Bowl between five years. So, like, it can happen. You can't lose your coaching staff and get back there within five years. I mean, it's happened before, but a circle data shows us.

It's like it's a big deal losing these key pieces as coaches. And, you know, not that the lines are going to be desperate, but they, have to know this. Like it's, now that I'm thinking about, though, they've drafted so well that maybe they can't combat it, but it's like, this is the year, it's all lined up. You have a really great defensive mind that, you know, you have

no, you should have no defense. Like, it's incredible what they have done, even winning all these games down the stretch here because, you know, they have lost so many pieces here. And, you know, you're right, Chad. It's like, I get your emotion in this bet.

You know, who doesn't want to see Detroit win this be the one seed that's their best pass but I just think at this point to me Minnesota is the better team you can get three right now at bet three six five and we already talked about like if you have like I do I have a bunch of futures tied to this Detroit team winning this division you have to hedge like this is such a unique great opportunity to hedge on a Vikings team that to me is the better team right now and they're the dog and you know as much as want to respect home field advantage there we talked about this year there is no real home field advantage right like that's kind of gone out the door especially when there's two teams like this

that can move the ball like the the offense here is going to be the difference and we've seen that right the total is the biggest total like evan was saying since what is the 2021 it's it's insane how this total is so 57 and a half you you not want to take it it makes makes i i get it like if you want to take a step back anyone out there doesn't want to take this but to me you've have a game that's going to be a shootout, you almost always take the points. Like unless, you know, you're really committed to this Detroit team, go money line then. Like, don't, don't mess around the two and a half because I, I talk about time how important I think two and a half is. And you even go back and look at the first time they played. Me and Chad survived that Detroit bet, right? We did handicap her

right, but it was madness. There was like a strip sack touchdown at the end of the game. All of a sudden Detroit had to drive the field again and get another touchdown. And then it was just pure madness. And that's what I think this game is going to be. Like, you're never going to feel comfortable. I can't see this being a blowout on either side. I would be shocked if Detroit blew out the Vikings or the Vikings blow out Detroit. It would honestly be shocking. But I just think the fact that you have a team on short rest already banged up.

I mean, they've just had a grueling long season here, plenty against a Minnesota team that, you know, not that they're going to be fresh in this game, but like, you know, they dominated their last game against Green Bay. They basically took the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. and had a little sweat there, but I just think it aligns up perfectly this Minnesota team. So yeah, I'm clearly on Pock committed. I love them at plus

three Minnesota. And, you know, at two and a half, if Chad doesn't put him in a contest, I get it. Like, I'm more confident at three, three and a half with this Minnesota team than I am at two and a half, but yeah, this is the dream scenario for the NFL. Two 14 and two teams fight for the one seat. It doesn't get much better than this.

I'm so excited to watch this game. It's like, I love football. It's going to be a great. It's going to be a great game. All right, well, we'll review. We'll put in our picks after the show. We're going to want to get some numbers

before they move even more. People will be able to track that. We'll finalize them on Sunday morning. Each week, we give out a two-team money line underdog parlor. Bet365 boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all week and long under both game pages. Both games are eligible for Bet365's early. payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win.

If that team takes a 17-point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet, there's better to bet 365. This week's boosted parlay, jags and giants. That's right. That's what we're asking. Can't imagine. Can't imagine what the trading analyst at Boot 365 will boost that one to find the boost under the Jags or Giants game pages on Bet365.

Simon, our money line underdog round robin. We'll come a payday, hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday, someday. There will come a payday. Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday. I would say we want to do the chiefs, Panthers, giants, jags.

I remember you liked cowboys, right? And if you want to take the cowboys out and go with Minnesota, I support it. All right. do that because I know how much you love Minnesota. I hate like when you're so locked in and I'm clearly being emotional about it. I'm locked in but I'm scared. I think anyone's scared betting against this Detroit team. I mean, Mann Campbell just dominates in this exact scenario. What is he having? Is he seven and no in night games with golf against the spread? I think it's something like that or it's against the Vikings too. Gough hasn't lost against the spread against a Viking. It's not good,

it's every trend I read from Evan. I was like, God damn it. But I can't help myself. I forget it. then let's go with the underdog round robin is going to be Kansas City, Jags, Giants, Cowboys, Oh, Carolina. Carolina, Jags, Cowboys, Giants. Carolina, Jags, Cowboys, Giants, Kansas City. All right. Jesus, that was. Scootrelette.

Scoot, well, we got to do your biggest bets, then I want to do Scoot Roulette. Biggest bets so far. I hit the Cincinnati one early. I've not bet in much since. That definitely is one of my bigger bets. Jaguars, Giants, probably going to end up with Minnesota's one of my bigger bets, especially if it stays at three.

So, yeah, I would say those three really jump out for Sunday. Wow, that's truly disgusting. That's going to be it. You're going to have terrible... I mean, I didn't mention Tennessee because I just know no one's going to follow that one. But, yeah, I'm heavy on Tennessee as well. Oh, my God. You're going to have such an excruciating Sunday.

If you were drinking last Sunday, forget about this Sunday. day. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scoot Chruillette. Scoot Chulette. Last week, you were on Minnesota. I was on Green Bay, our first head-to-head of the year. Very upsetting for me. Who would you like to pick in Scrooch Rulet? I mean, do you want to double down and take Detroit Night Tick, Minnesota, or are you just scared off now? No, I'll do it. You will?

Yeah, why not? You're a sick dog. Yeah, give me Minnesota then. Whatever are you getting? You get two and a half, I get plus three? Sure. All right. I like that. I like that one. Now it gives me like a reason to be invested without actually having to be invested as a contest pick. Before we get to Evan Abrams, if you are participating, no, this is not accurate. This should have come out. We're all good. Everything's good. Let's get to Evan Abrams. Before we get out of here, our director of research, you can get the final word. Make us feel good about something. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

Well, yeah, I mean, if we're betting the Giants, Titans, and Jaguars, I'm not sure how much I can help there. But I will give you a few pieces of fun information here. The one thing you guys did say about Carson Wentz, which I looked up, so 10 and a half would actually be his largest spread in any game played, 93 starts. He did it against Lamar in 22. So, yeah, even a big number for him in his heyday and his post days. And the interesting thing on Sunday night football,

so Vikings 14 wins, a win total was six and a half. If they get one more win at 15, this would be the most over expectations any team has ever finished since realignment in 2002. So Vikings had a six and a half win total in the past, which is insane. But I'll give you two trends since it is week 18.

We kind of have a lot of this information on teams to bet and fade at the end of the year. So historically it's been profitable to fade teams who need to win at the end of the regular season. It's a great note from Stucky that we've been updating year to year. So since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season, 60% against the spread. Now, for week 18, that is the Saints getting about 14 in the bucks. The Panthers getting eight or nine in Atlanta.

And the Jets at about one, one and a half or two against the dolphins, all three of those other teams need to win. And then here's an even broader one, which I found in BetLabs, which I found was interesting. So in addition, teams with a win percentage between 40% and 60%, week 16 or later, 27 and 72 against the spread, 27% when they are against opponents with an 8 to 25% worse win percentage. So basically in those last two to three weeks of the regular season, you want to be betting these bad teams against good teams. They're failing to cover the spread by 3.8 points per game. This week, that is, the Colts against the Jaguars, the dolphins against those jets, the Falcons against those Panthers, and the Bucks against the Saints.

Same type of games, same type of system. But this is just year in and year out. These teams like the Colts last week against the Giants kind of find themselves not coming through when people expect them to. And then I'll end here. We talked a lot about the tight. So yes, Chad, to answer your question from earlier, two and 14 ATS, they're just the only team ever to lose 14 games against a spread in a season. So that will continue no matter what.

But the funny thing is this. So they were favored actually last week. They closed it minus one with some late action. So they're about to close its favorites in back-to-back weeks. And I found this one. So ending the year bad, only a few teams have had a four-plus game ATS losing streak and an ATS win percentage of 25% or worse in week 17 or later, which is exactly what you're getting with the Titans.

The only two teams before that were the Bucks in 22 who actually beat the Panthers and famously in 2021, the Jaguars who upset the Colts and kept them out of the playoffs. The other funny thing is it's actually also the Browns this week. The Browns are, I don't know, I didn't even realize this until I look it up. The Browns are four and 12 against a spread this year. They failed to get the spread in four or five straight games entering this one. So they're pretty much on in the same course as Tennessee. They've been really bad kind of unexpectedly starting DTR these last few weeks.

And then I'll leave you with this. So Simon mentioned it with Dable, but I found this interesting. Best coaches against the spread, week 17 and 18 in our Betlabs database since 2003. Tomlin, 14 and 7, ATS. Dan Campbell, 7 and 1. And again, Brian Dable at 5 and 0. The other good ones were McDermott and Peterson, who I know you guys are on a few. of those coaches and teams this week. So maybe that'll turn out on the positive side.

Feel great. You know what I feel like, Simon? Feel like we're going to live up to our potential in a week 18. Do you feel that way too? Always. Good. I'm glad. Of that, we are like minds. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 and bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spread, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet three, six, five must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem

called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap NFL week 18 and look ahead to the playoffs. Got some wild card lines that'll be out by then. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler.

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