The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 6

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

We've entered the heart of the NFL season, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they discuss a massive Detroit Lions matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, give some praise to the Carolina Panthers, give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs. Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me.

Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast, And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

On The Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor it.

It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion,

and my confadre, my BFF, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Good morning, Chad. How we doing? It's perfect. It's like kind of chilly in the Northeast. I get to layer.

I turned on the heat in my office today. I'm looking at these lines, and there is an abundance, an abundance of opportunity. Today is our NFL Week 6 Best Betts episode. where Simon and I narrow down our five picks in the favorites $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now. Favorites.com.com. We will get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John big balls bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line underdog parlay, the underdog round robin. So much more. Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving decisions need to be made.

As our volume podcast boss, Call and Coward, like to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers. Get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, or Indiana. Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800-gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as always on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation.

That's how influential. We are. The lines move based on our conversations and pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do. Sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring.

Somebody said, baby, what you do with? All right, Chad, we're off the top. We're against the pros and a lot of our picks. What could go wrong? They like the Ravens. And I mean, we can dive into that game more. We will for sure.

They might bullet me out of our Washington love, but. I'm hoping they do. Okay. So, yeah, it's the Joe Public Play. We talked about it, but I don't know. I just think the books, they haven't caught up to this Washington team. The professionals think they have and that this number should be seven and a half. And this Washington team is truly at the peak of their value right now.

So, again, you just said we're going to dive into that one. So I'm looking forward to that. we talked about the Chargers that Broncos game, the pros, they love the Broncos. It's not as split as you think it would be. It's not pros versus Joe's. It's actually the public and the pros on Denver and a couple of professionals are out there

taking this Chargers team. So that feels like it's going to be a couple of pros and the books against mainly the public, right, with that Denver number. Another game we talked about that we love, we knew this was going to be this way. We love the lines. The pros absolutely love this Dallas team.

And it reminded me a lot of what we loved about the Rams last week, right? The Rams got the three and a half, just like this Dallas number did. The professionals came in. Obviously heavy with the money. I bet this back down to three at most books. Well, I'll see how you feel about it, Chad. I haven't wavered. I still like this matchup for Detroit.

Yeah. I think what they're betting on is a lot of historical trends and the reason they're back in this Cowboys team. They think, I guess, the lines will be sluggish come off a buy. But I'm looking forward for us breaking that one down. You know, the Giants one, I talked about that. I love that game. The professionals love that.

They're classic spot of, you know, grab the three and a half now if you want, but I already talked about it. I could see this number going down if neighbors gets cleared. Hasn't got cleared yet, even though a couple of books are already showing threes. I'm hoping neighbors gets cleared today. And that's when I look like a genius for getting this number early. But right now, if you didn't get the three and a half on Tuesday, you could still get it right now.

Neighbors has not been cleared. So that number has not moved. And the last one, again, me and you both love, the pros love the Jets. This is a nice spot to bet the Jets. It's a good value on the number. So I'm sure that's a game we're going to break down as well. So at the start of it, I was a little nervous because they were on the other side of a lot of our picks, but we came back around there at the end.

So we'll see how this week goes for us, Joe. Yeah, it doesn't feel like they are, actually. And so there's two things we have a preponderance of this week that are all sort of thematic. Yeah. Home underdogs. A ton of home. underdogs. Evan, I don't know if you know if this is accurate. I heard Stucky say this on the podcast with Chris Rabon, the Action Network podcast on Thursday mornings. He said it might be the most home

underdogs in one week in NFL history. I'm not sure if he got that from you, Ev. Evan did write about it in his article, but it's moved because there's only nine home dogs now because there was 10, but the Tennessee flipped. So, Gotcha. Right. And I want to talk about that game. So there was 10, now there's 9. We talk about the public a lot.

Games in which the betting tickets are lopsided for one team, that is a key indicator that the public is on that side. A reminder that this season, the betting public, so when 51% or more of the tickets are on one side or the other, they are 2846 and 2, this season. I don't know what ATS percenters that is, if someone can throw that in the chat. But it is the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the past 20 years. And by the way, their best week was last week when they went six and eight.

And Simon and I happen to suffer the consequences of some of that. So when we talk about betting against the public, it is historically a good idea. It is definitely a good idea this year. we're going to get into it, starting with this very first game. And Simon, Washington and Baltimore, Baltimore is still six and a half. You are, and admittedly on the opposite side of the wise guys on this. You said that on Tuesday when you said you were into this game. This is great.

52% of the tickets are on Washington. 52% of the money is on Baltimore. It is a 100% pros Joe's split. I have not been able to come around to your side. And we had been looking to sell the commanders, right? How much higher can they fly? How much better can Jaden Daniels really be? Matchup-wise, this does play to the Raven strengths.

They're one of the most efficient early-down teams in the league, going against one of the worst early-down offenses. And we've said this before, like against the Chiefs, last season in the title game, which if the Ravens had just run the ball, they would have dominated that game. If they can do that, keep Jaden Daniels off the field historically.

Teams covering the spread by five points or more, like the commanders, only cover 43% of the time. So that's my Ravens take. I know you have commanders take here. so I don't know if I can help put you over the edge and being bullied. Can't because I got my man Evan here who's got some amazing numbers. If you look at just teams who are playing on seven days rest or less that played in overtime

and now they're playing against a team that hasn't played in overtime, they are just 42% against the spread. Guess who fits that description, this Ravens team? And there's a bunch of other stuff. that trends that point to this team here and this commander's team. I think you nailed it though. The fear here is when do we get off this boat? And it was same with last week.

It was like I knew that was the right spot to take watching against the Cleveland. But me and chat have done this long enough to know that eventually it's going to fall off. It's just how football is. You just can't be consistently great every week and everything goes so smooth. And what this kid is doing right now, Jane Daniels, that we've just, you know, I've never seen anything like it with a rookie being so confident in the podcast. Nobody has seen anything like it. It's literally precedent setting.

So I told you. My view of it is pretty simple. These professionals, they bet 10K against them when they were planning against Arizona. They've done 20K when it was against Cleveland. Now they're up to 30K. I mean, they're just going to keep up in the bet

because they know eventually it's going to hit for him. And I just, I don't agree with the logic. And I don't know. I just, I won't take Washington on the money line here because we know the Lamar stats against NFC, you're right, he's 21 and one straight up against the NFC.

That's a big deal, right? He's historically, even if he doesn't cover the big spreads, which mean you always love to fade Lamar in this spot. Like, this is where he does not cover. He does not cover. 7 and 18 is a spread of more than a field goal. Say that number again? 7 and 18 against the spread as a favorite of more than a field goal.

So you know we have to do long term. This is a bet you're supposed to make. Like this is a bet you're supposed to make on the commanders because long term it is a winner. Right, but there's so many trends that say long term, this is a bet on the Ravens. There's one thing you said last week that sort of hammered home why

that gives me a little pause, which is this Ravens defense at the end of the game tends to go soft, right? When teams have to pass against them, that is their greatest weakness. They are not a good past defense right now. And Jaden Daniels, the opportunity to have to be throwing the ball

if they're down by 13 points, they're down by 12 points, they're down by 10 points, they're down by 8 points, down by 7 points. All of a sudden, the back door is wide open. And as much as I think the Ravens are the right side, I don't want to bet on this defense against Jaden Daniels at the end of the game where the commanders can't win, but they can certainly get closer and nobody on that team is going to stop playing.

That's what worries me. But do I feel good enough about betting on a backdoor hope? Do you know what I mean? Yeah, I think we're all just, again, like I said, when you've done this long enough to know that this is just a fishy line. There's a couple of fishy lines this week, and this is one of them where it's like, I don't get why this number is so big.

I think they would be getting just as much action on Washington if this was four and a half than they would if it was six and a half. So that's what it's scary me a little bit, is the books are taking a position. Professionals are taking a position with the books. Long term, that's usually a nice spot to be. So unfortunately, it's probably not to be one of our five, but I don't know. I'm dug in here on Washington. I do like Washington at this number.

It's just all the other. outside noise and everything else is just giving me a lot hesitation here because we just know something's off about this number in this line and to me it's either the books are protecting knowing that if they had made this number shorter they'd be getting a lot more Washington money and maybe they're taking a position that way but yeah this is definitely one of the games that even if I don't have a lot of money on it's going to be one of the center TVs. Simon we have to do two things on this show today we have to give people a foxhole and we have to give people our Big Balls, Bed of the Week.

Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games. Start with great underwear. The sign over my shoulder says it all. And Tommy John makes the greatest. And what we are going to do today, right now,

with our big balls, we are going to tell people to do something that will require support. Because you and I are both in on the New England Patriots as seven-point underdogs at home against the Houston Texans. I like it for the spot.

I like it for the matchup. I like it for the number. I like it for the trends. It is our big balls bet of the week. Simon, I even checked the weather. It's going to be beautiful in New England. Let's roll. Are you with me?

I am, Chad. Historically, it's not ideal to bet rookies in their first start. But I think from your perspective and my perspective is this is when we want to fade this Houston team. They're on the road. CJ's a favorite. And not even just a short favorite. He's a seven point favorite in this matchup without Nico Collins. And maybe without Joe Mixing once again.

And like, to me, that's the big deal. deal here. The fear for us is New England's offense line is terrible and they've had some really serious injuries to that that, that should really benefit this Houston team attacking. But isn't this the quarterback you want behind a bad offensive line? Not Bruce Set, who's a statue back there. You want Drake May who can move and, you know, to me he's going to be a one or two read and pull the ball down and run the ball, which is honestly what I want with this team right now, New England. So I get people's hesitation here. I looked in our contest before we on here. It is six and a half.

So that's obviously a choice we'll have to make. I mean, maybe if we get lucky, you get seven and a half comes Sunday, if more money comes in on Houston. But, you know, I'm not going to let that scare me off here. I think you're right. Like, we have to play this spot, play this number. This isn't that terrible of a matchup for this New England team. The only pause for me, once again, is just they lost a lot of guys in the offensive line. And that should benefit this Houston team. But should they be a seven point favorite? I don't think so. I don't think Chad thinks that either.

I think this is way too much respect for a Houston team that this season, they're one of four against the spread. Like they're a team that the books have no, they can prop up and the public will come in heavy on them, and that's good for the book. So, yeah, I think we're getting an extra point and a half of value here, chats. I'll definitely take this number on New England. Well, look, Simon, if you want to fade the public,

this is the game to do it, because about 90% of the tickets are coming in on Houston. I want to remind people underdogs of six plus points are now 11 and 8 straight up and 16, 2 and 1 against the spread. Do you want to bet a public, bet against the public? Sorry, I just got something in my eye. Bet against the public after a bad game, you do. 61% against the spread to the team that had just played terribly since 2005.

That is the New England Patriots. I agree with you. At first I was a little bit worried about Drake May being the starter, but that offensive, because it feels like malpractice, to put in that guy behind that offensive line, which is terrible. But it's terrible whether the guys are injured or not. And I agree with you, what you're going to get from Drake May is someone who's a really good athlete who's going to be mobile and is going to move.

So it actually could counteract the pressure. Don't forget the Texans have the best pressure rate of any defensive line. line in the NFL. And DeNeil Hunter has the league best pressure rate of any defensive lineman at 29%. So it doesn't matter how bad this is. It might actually play to their advantage. And you mentioned CJ. CJ on the road this year is just a different player. His YPA, yards per attempt, and his touchdown rate are both way, way down. And now they have no Nico Collins, who has been the best wide receiver in the league. And as you said, Joe Mixon, He didn't practice yesterday.

So again, he's a veteran, but he hasn't played in a few weeks. It's not looking good for him to be at full strength on Thursday. So I feel like this continues to be a good spot. And biggest luck rankings gap on the board, 25 places, 62% against the spread historically. Go, pets, go. Yeah, I think both of you, but we both know going into this why we might not cover it. It's just because Drake May is a rookie making his first start and he could do some really stupid shit. You know, a little birdie told me this, this move didn't come from the head coach or the coaching staff.

This came from ownership after watching that Miami game where, you know, if it was Drake May, I think they probably would have to be Miami in that game. Berset just played so bad that I think after watching, they're just going to have to make this change. because I do agree with most people saying that, well, their whole reason for not starting was their offensive line. They didn't want to ruin them, right? Because they had such a bad offensive line. Now the offensive line is even worse.

Now they're playing them. And I just told people it's the ownership. I think they're just sick of watching Bruce Set. And they're just like, you know what? We see three other rookies out there playing really well, winning games. We have to see what we have here in this kid. So I totally understand why they're putting Drake in at this point. I know the fans are like not really understanding what the move is.

I think it's just, it's watching all these other guys enjoy their new toys and you're just sitting there with Berset and you're just like, we can't just keep throwing this guy out here. This is just terrible football. You know who doesn't get swayed by public pressure? Chad Milman. And Simon Hunter, the co-host of the favorites podcast, which is why even after a not great start of the year, we're undaunted when we put in the New England Patriots as our big balls at the week, sponsored by Tommy John, which we know,

makes the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn, it truly has changed my life. I've never been happier with my undergarments. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better if you love Simon and I. If you love this show, you'll love Tommy John, get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced. games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the fourth. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life. mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross

double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day But just so y'all know I mean at this point Mark this is the second episode

where we've discussed crack So I'm starting to see that there's a through line We also have AIDS on the table right now So Thank you finishing that sentence I don't think there's a more important year for black people Really? Yeah

For me it's one of the most important years For black people in American history Listen to look back at it On the IHeart Radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcast Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross,

because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing,

growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app, Search learn the hard way and listen now. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted. this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like

Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the bar like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Oh, yeah. Get your ass up and down the guy. court and you're going to get the bomb. So listen to Point Game on the IHeartRadio

app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. This next game, I'm so bummed, Simon. India, Tennessee. Tennessee is now a two and a half point favorite. And on Tuesday, we wanted to put a pin in this one and see

what the sharp calls might have to say or how we felt after we dug in a little bit more. And yesterday, this line got up to one and a half in the afternoon. And like, I didn't pull the trigger because I kind of wanted to hear what you had to say about it. But I spent 25 minutes on the game and I had fallen in love with the Titans as home dogs. And I was ready to blow your mind with why we should do it.

And then late yesterday afternoon, it had been Tennessee plus one and a half, flipped to minus one. Now it's at minus two and a half. I don't know why. I don't know if this is Pittman. I don't know if this is because they think Anthony Richardson might play, who's he said he was devastated because I felt good about the Titans at plus one and a half.

Yeah, it's Anthony Richardson and I would be pretty terrified if I was a fan of the Colts and realization that Anthony Richardson is worth three and a half points less than Joe Flacco. That is rough. But that's what it has to be. To me, there's no other reason for that type of movement,

especially where, you know, I talked to a bookmaker. today. It's all Colts money right now. So that was where I was going to come around and be on your Tennessee side. I was just like, okay, this is clearly a trap being laid by the books. The professionals came in, they hit this number. The books moved it with them. It's still a lot of Colts money.

So I don't know, Chad. If this got the three, three and a half, I'd really be tempted to come back on the Colts just because this Tennessee team and Willevis is that bad. This Colts team, as much you want to knock Anthony Richardson that he's not as good as Joe Flackett, which I agree with, you know, his style of play in that offense when they cater around him, it's pretty damn good. Like he threw what the beginning of the season, he was winning close, ugly games. And he was keeping his team in these ugly games. So there might be a little bit of overreaction too much. I mean, at what point does the line move

too much on him coming in? That's what I'll wait on now, because I'm with Chad. I didn't understand this line when it opened. I wanted to be in the Colts. Tennessee was obviously to the right side. Now it's moved so much that I'll just wait, hope this gets the three and I'll throw a little bit on the Colts here,

but I'm happy this one won't be in R5 because I can't imagine me letting Chad talk, Chad talking me into taking Will Levis as one of our five here. And dude, my arguments were so good. Like, honest to God, yesterday afternoon I was working on this. It's the game I spent the most time out

because all of a sudden I was doing the work and looking at the numbers and seeing who was going to be playing and thinking about the bi-week and thinking about when have the cults done well and why have they done well and what have the circumstances been,

all those things that we think about. And I'm like, Titans are the side. And I was like so in, I'm kind of glad I didn't pull the trigger because now hearing you, I would have been more nervous, but I definitely felt like I was going to be able to convince you.

Like on the list, I made my prelimin, preliminary list yesterday, they were definitely like top six yesterday, the Titans, to me, at plus, you know, at a plus number. But I'm not even read your stat, your favorite stat about, you know, a team moving from a dog to a favorite on the line. Teams to open his underdogs and closes a favorite, historically struggled to cover that number, 71 and 100 against the spreads in 2019, 42%.

So the flip side of this is now all of a sudden. that makes the Colts decide. Yeah, and it's, again, the hesitation here. I mean, we'll talk about, there's a couple of games this week where the books are really taking up position on, but this is clearly one of them. Like, if you look at our app right now,

it's still all Colts, month. All cult, 90%. Yeah. It's ridiculous. Be careful out there, people. Yeah, I agree. Like, there's something. Something fishy.

Something fishy, you know, something smell right. Something does smell right. Arizona at Green Bay. Green Bay, still a five-point favorite. I am shocked that there is no conversation about this game from professionals. There was, but it's split. It's like the line isn't really moving.

Like everything I said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me lean. Packers. Cardinals just won their biggest game of the year. Like the biggest difference is to me, the Cardinals are a very public dog. And that makes me feel better about the Packers right now. I don't have it up. I lost the tab, but the public number on this game real quickly, I'm getting to it, is, you know, 60% of the tickets are on the Cardinals, 63% of the money on the Cardinals.

So it feels like, at least from a public point of view, they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers even more. Yeah, and the professional bettors I talk to, it's split where the trend beters, people who just simply bet trends, they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of really good trends to this Cardinals team

and a lot of good trends, the fade Green Bay in this spot. But a lot of the professionals I talk through, they like what we like here with Green Bay, kind of in a nice spot against a Cardinals team that we expect to have a letdown game. But yeah, after reading Evans article, I got a little bit of pushback on that.

Kyler's actually not as bad as he think he would be in this spot historically. Teams after, you know, beating divisional games as a big underdog. Actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the road back-to-back weeks. but I don't know, Chad. There's something I can't shake here where it feels like we're still getting value.

And it's like, well, I still think this number should be closer to six and a half, seven. I still like it. If you still like it, if you want to put it in as one of our favorites, I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like, I bet this number. I bet Green Band in this spot. You know, to me, I get all the drama they have a wide receiver right now. They were still able to figure out how to move the ball downfield last week.

And if that means getting more touches to their tight end, LaFleur is happy to do that. Like, this man just knows how to game plan. and just how to attack defense's weaknesses. So you know where I stand with this Arizona team. I think they do have a really exciting offense. I just don't think they have the guys on defense to get stops. Like they've just been so bad.

And if like we talked about last week, the 49ers didn't lose their kicker, that was a totally different game. They looked like a totally different team in that second half where we haven't really seen that from multiple teams that have played Arizona. So yeah, this is a tough one of your chat. It's it is split.

I'm trying to find an angle on it that really makes me love this Green Bay team. At the end of the day, it's just, I just like the number. And that's the toughest part here. I know. I can't find, I can't find the thing. Well, I should hope in Edwin give me some good news on, on his trends, but it was all, it was all Arizona, man. It was all Arizona. And like, look, we go through a checklist on these things, right? We look for the home dogs. We look for games in which we think the book is going to shade one side or the other because of public perception of how a team played the week before. The Bengals are a perfect example of that.

I mean, not the Bengals. The Bengals are a perfect example of that. The commanders are a perfect example of that. The Cardinals are a good example of that. But then we're also looking at the matchups and we try to glean which side might have a true edge. And then we're looking at the trends. And like nothing says Packers other than to me.

the I test and this team. No, there are some numbers. Nothing, but I mean nothing overwhelming. That says to me one side or the other. This might make you feel better, though. The Cardinals have allowed, this is from our guy, Evan. The Cardinals have allowed opposing QBs to complete to combine 72.5% of their passes this season.

They're allowing 8.14 yards per attempt, the third highest ranked mark in NFL, their past defense is 30th and dropback per year. EPA and 32nd in dropback success rate. So this is really us saying, Jordan Love, this is a bet on you. Yes. Like this is really us betting on him to really dominate this Cardinals defense that has been atrocious against the past.

I think you just perfectly captured what I was trying to say in numbers when I said this is an eye test game to me. We've been seeing Jordan Love get a little bit better. And he wasn't perfect against the Rams. but he made the throws he needed to make. Now we're three weeks back from the injury. We're back at home against a defense that, you know, if you want to compare to the Vikings,

who was his first game back, is one of the best defenses in the NFL and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL and Brian Flores. He is not doing that this week against the Cardinals. And the Cardinals' offense is turnover prone against a very opportunistic Packers defense. So that's why.

And I think we are getting a little bit of a benefit in the number. Will it be on a final five? I don't know because we don't like to put too many favorites in. And I do think we both feel strongly about Detroit. But it certainly is in the mix for me. We still got to get a foxhole. We haven't gotten there yet. Tampa Bay at New Orleans.

Look, to me, this was a pass, the only reason I put it in is because now I feel like it's the Saints or nothing. Like this number has moved so much because of the Derrick Carr injury news. I'm actually not that afraid of betting on Spencer Rattler at home as a dog or betting against the bucks. Yeah. You know, on the road as now nearly four point favorites. Like, it just feels like too much to me. I know I regret not I'm making my assignment says I as soon as we got done the show I was just hammering that two and a half on that bucks number and I told people I was going to bet it they should bet it just in case derrick car was out but you're so right like now that it's three and a half I know we're supposed to take this kid and this saints team but man like when you really dive into it like the saints losing their center I didn't realize how big of a deal was going to be for them I think they're o and three since he's gone out yeah like they just have not been the same team since that offensive line got banged up and, you know, say what you want about Derek Carr. He's one of the best deep throwers of the ball this season.

Like he's been really good attacking deep downfield. And that's what their offense is, right? They kind of burn you with the run and then they hit you with the play action and go deep on you. I don't know if I have faith on a rookie to come in and run the style of offense. So, yeah, Chad's right. If you're out there and you want to take the three and a half, I get it. But I'm going to dig in. I'm going to take the bucks here, probably still at minus three and a half.

I just, I keep thinking about them trying to run the ball against Vita V. And it's just, I don't know how they establish a run with this Saints team. And, you know, say what you want about this Bucks team coming off that loss to Atlanta. I feel like they're going to be desperate here. And that's really when we've seen the Bucks be good, when they're really not desperate, but a little bit, right? Like when they're not counted out, this is when they're good. So Chad's right.

Historically, I don't want to back the Bucks here. We like them when they're either a short favorite or a dog. neither of which they are here. So I'm good with passing on this one, but I get where you're coming from saying that's probably the spot to take New Orleans. I just, I can't get there. I just think they're a bad team right now. I'm a little surprised to hear you say that.

This feels so chalky of you. Chalk wins, baby. Not always, but certain spots. But yeah, I'm with you. I wanted to be on the Saints, but I don't think the number has moved enough for me to take them. God, that's fascinating. All right.

Have you watched Spencer Rattler? I watched him in college. I actually... There's a reason he was, whatever it was, a fifth round pick. Yeah, look, I mean, I felt, but I think back to those, that year when he was taking over at Oklahoma, and everyone thought he was win the Heisman. Yeah. And within four games, Caleb Williams was on the field, bringing him back against Texas, and all of a sudden, you know, he was 18 months away from winning the Heisman himself,

and then becoming probably will end up being the greatest quarterback in the history. history of football with the most excellent franchise at developing quarterbacks in the history of football. So I've always felt a little bit bad for Spencer Rattler and I watched a bunch of those South Carolina games. And he can sling it for sure. But he's got a little bit of a Taylor Heineckee vibe, right? Like he'll make these plays that will feel great. This is what I'm projecting. And then he's going to lose that game for us if we had bet it. You know what I mean? Chargers at Denver. This one deserves some conversation.

Yeah. I love this game for the Chargers on Tuesday. I think you did too. From a ticket and money. Just because we didn't understand the line. Like I told you, I had this line at one and a half. It was three. I was like, there's something I'm clearly missing here

with this Chargers team. Look, the Broncos are clearly the public dog. They're getting about 60% of the tickets. And the line has moved in their direction. It's gone from three to two and a half. Which I don't mind. I know that taking the Chargers goes against the home division dog trend

but there's also, I think, a sell high trend in the Chargers favor. The same one I mentioned with the commanders, these teams that have been covering by more than five points per game historically covered a 43% rate. So like, I like a lot of what I'm seeing for the Chargers, I do worry we're giving them a little bit too much credit for Joe Alt and

Rashan Slater. Coming back, we still don't know what's happening with Bosa. Denver's run game is actually better than the Chargers. We like to think about the Chargers as a run team, but their early down success as a run team has been better against common opponents. Bo Nix has been a better quarterback than Justin Herbert this year. I know that's hard to say, but I'm not as all in as I was on Tuesday. Well, it's just because of what we talk about. I've talked a bunch of professionals and they like Denver as well. And that's, I'm with you on that where it's like, I want to be with you guys. I want to be on Denver. This feels like this is their smart side. But you have this spidey senses like I do. There's something off about this number, something very telling that makes me want to take this

Chargers team and you know a couple books moved to the two and a half I bet it it's like okay now it's under three I might as well take the Chargers here I thought it'll keep going down now most of these books are back up to three so it's a little telling like clearly there's professional money out there that's driving this one this number back up to the three now look at the matchup I do want to give a ton of credit to Joe all like this kid coming I knew he was going to be really good watching his tape through the first three weeks before he got hurt, he was really good. Like, the way he handled Max Crosby as well

without help was incredible. Like his one-on-ones against him were so impressive for a first-year starter. To me, what I think, what I thought you thought on Tuesday is this offensive line can neutralize the strength of Denver right now, which is their front seven. Like, that to me has been the difference

this season for Denver is how good their front has been playing. But you can counter that with a really good offensive line and a great run blocking scheme, which we believe the Chargers have here, Chad. So I do think this is a nice, you know, sell high in the Denver's, by low on this Chargers team.

And if it is minus two and a half, maybe I'll be able to convince you, but I can see it's just not one of your favorite bets, which I totally understand. But yeah, this is another favorite, just like Green Bay. I'm dug in on here. Wow.

God, that's so fascinating. On Tuesday, on Tuesday, I was so dug in on Green Bay in the Chargers. And 48 hours later, I'm wavering. Because we ain't Ben favorites. We like Ben dogs. That's who we are. Right.

And on Tuesday, you were sort of not as dug in on either. Yeah, because I didn't get this line at first. I was just like, what are these guys seeing? But again, I've talked to enough bookmakers professionals

and I see the reasoning behind it. And sometimes, again, my model is just going to be wrong. That's what I was just, I was like, how's my model so off on this one? How is it off by point and a half? but yeah my only hesitation right now is still i don't really have concrete word on what's going on

with herbert and i've seen footage him in practice him moving around he looks all right but it's like it's practice right he's not really being pushed so that's that to me is the hesitation here where it's like would i much rather take detroit than this number hell yeah like i know exactly what detroit is i know even if it's minus three and a half i have more confidence than that than i do in the two and a half chargers here so that's my hesitation here's just the herbert news All right. All right. Well, let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas. Let's talk about how this number got up to three and a half. This was my exact decision. And I do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit. It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did bet it at three. I love it based on all the matchups and the fundamentals, especially. especially at the line of scrimmage, every advanced metric

you can think of. Run, block, win, rate, adjusted line yards. Whatever crap, the geeks are making up these days. Has the Lions O line, top two, top three in the NFL, if not first.

And every one of those metrics has the Cowboys' Run defense, rate as, I think the technical term, trash. So the lions are a more violent team. And football is violence. Yeah. And again, the reasoning for the pros, like when I was talking to guys, why do you like this Dallas side? I just don't think it's smart. Like they're saying Dan Campbell is unpredictable. This team relies so much, so much on their fourth down success rate. That's fluky game to game. There's no way around it really.

Ultimately, that falls on me. It's my fault. This Cowboys team is. is at the lowest point. This is a good by a low spot. I'm like, they just won on a, you know, a fourth and four drive against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. So I just said disagree with a lot of it. And this is a number that me and you might be totally wrong on.

We're missing something here, but, you know, all the historical data that Detroit hasn't beat Cowboys and Dallas in forever and all these different stuff. It's like, I throw it out, exactly. I just don't view it that way. So I'm with Chad here. Give me the best. best offensive line, that's great at run blocking

against a suspect defensive line that doesn't have their best run stopping defenders. So the only thing I can think here, are we gonna get burned by a bad golf game? Because the last time we saw him, he was perfect. I think he was 18 for 18 in their last win. You know, coming off a biweek, does that get in his head? Does that get in the whole team's head, right?

Do they come out sluggish in this game against a team that, technically this is a short rest week, right? They're running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't get home to what, Monday morning to let their body start healing? It's just everything lines up to love this Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm hoping this is just like Washington, Cleveland last week, chat,

where the books are dead fucking wrong, hanging a three. Even if this is minus three and a half in contest, I feel like we're going to force this one in regardless. It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been this excited about the Lions. Talk about restoring the wrong. God, it's so interesting you say that because I don't look at Jared Gough as potentially having a down game was because he was perfect. I think he was perfect within the context of the offense.

It's not like he was 35 of 37 for 500 yards and six touchdowns because they were coming back, right? Like he was 18 of 18 and played a brilliant game working off of the game plan. And I think that to me is indicative of what the Lions have done, what Ben Johnson has done, what Dan Campbell has dictated be done as the head. coach of that team in terms of what their emphasis is going to be and honoring the fact that they have the best offensive line in football and they can control the line of scrimmage. And he wants to be physical. And it's similar to me like the thinking about the chargers. And that's why both of these feel strange to me, like why aren't other people seeing what I'm

seeing. But I'm glad you are. That makes me happy. You and I together like that. All right, so Detroit's in. I mean, Detroit's in. Yeah. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle. great.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for Raw. unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick you here. unpack what went down and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for Blank. Black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade

of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, We get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses.

Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person.

Join me, Keer Gang. is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah.

This is my best friend Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip, just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we take.

tailgate, are you soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey, with all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here? Just hit it. Oh, what are y'all doing?

Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. Can you move? I would buy it. Cut through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious.

Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You are. You are. I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.

Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Atlanta, Carolina. Here we go. Jesus fucking. I hate everyone. I hate everyone associated with the Carolina Panthers and bookmakers for posting this number. This number is at six. I stole some stats. Action Network has a weekly passer play column, right? And this was a stat in the passer play column this week.

Atlanta's three wins this season have combined nine points. And it's possible the Falcons could have and should have lost all of those games. Week two, game winning two-minute drive against the Eagles, When the Eagles had a 97.6% win probability with less than two minutes remaining. Game three, a game winning 56-yard field goal after the Saints had an 84.5% win probability with 41 seconds left. Week 5. Over time, win against the Bucks, when the Bucs had a 93% win probability. with 22 seconds left seriously.

Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the Carolina Panthers plus six. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Now, I have a stat that might make you feel a little better

from our guy, Evan. All right, Kirk Cousin's career after a straight up win. He's 31, 43, and 2 against the spread. So 42% after a straight up win. The second worst mark of 244 QB since 2003, ahead of only, Jay Cutler. Now, as a favorite of four points or more in that spot, Kirk Cousins, four and 14 against the spread.

Like, he's dog shit in this spot historically. And we're getting an inflated line. There's no one left, Chad. This is it. Me and you are it. We're the only people left. They're still betting Carolina this week. And to me, this is the exact spot.

we want to be in like what carolina is going to struggle with is a team that defensively has you know they can attack a young quarterback right there there's to me their greatest strength right now is their safety position like their safeties might be the best in football at deceiving quarterbacks giving them false reads not letting them be moved with the kb's eyes and um someone like any dalton can kind of neutralize that he's done and seen it all and you know this is historically a nice matchup for him. Then you add in fact that this is an outdoors game, which historically Kirk is better indoors and he is outdoors. And, you know, the fact that I'm looking at our action app right now, it's less than 8% of the bets, less than 7% of the money right now is on this Panthers team.

How do we not love this team to cover this game and just win straight up? Like to me, this is just everything about this game just screams upset. And you just read it though. The Atlanta team has been incredibly lucky and fortunate at the end of these games. And even if we don't win this one outright, I feel like we're going to cover it. Like it just feels like either we're going to backdoor with Atlanta or we'll get back doored by Atlanta

and we'll still cover this six. So I love this number. The fact that it hasn't budged all week, you know, I was hoping for our contest this was going to get up to six and a half. I don't know if it's going to get there. We might have to take five and a half, but I'm okay with that.

I just, I love this spot for this Carolina team. 93% of the tickets. on the Falcons, like you said. We got a team coming off a bad game. We got dogs of six plus points or more. We got division dogs. Historically, this is the only side to play. Here's my challenge to you that's giving me a little pause,

and it's why I couldn't go full throttle on Tuesday. The Panthers run blocking this season has been outstanding, right up there with the lines is sort of amongst the league's best. They lost two offensive linemen on Sunday against the Bears. That was huge for them. It changed the scope of that game.

And now we've got a team that can't get any pressure from its defensive line and a team that its only advantage was in run blocking. And I don't think they'll be as good at run blocking as they have been this season I do worry about their ability to move, and now I worry about their ability

to put any pressure on Kirk Cousins defensively, and Kirk Cousins with a clean pocket is pretty great. So that's my biggest concern. Like everything you're saying is right, but as a matchup, I worry that the Panthers will not be able to execute. No, I disagree with you. And they're one in four against the spread

and one of four this season. They suck. I mean, this is a bad team, but this is life bad and bad teams. You're just playing the numbers here. I know, it's tough. Getting this foxhole, Chad. Are we seriously talking about the Panthers and the Patriots

and with a couple more games to go that are so gross when we are having a dreadful season so far? Like, you've got to be freaking kidding me. We're one five and a week away from being 500. We're not that bad. That's true. That's true. All right.

Cincinnati at the New York Giants This was your Simon Says And you were spot on It's definitely trending towards three It's another home underdog Playing against a massive public favorite In the Bengals Like

I don't have the trends here But I do Clearly the market believes Your Simon says is accurate And we got to jump on the Giants Yeah and it was really honestly we talked about it. I was just, I really thought neighbors be cleared by now and this will move by half a

point because to me, that's what neighbors, neighbors is worth half a point to a full point to the spread for this Giants team. And right now I have a grade at two and a half that's with neighbors in this game. If neighbors doesn't play, I'll move this number back up to three, but I'm still having half a point of a key number

in this matchup against. I think we can both agree on a Cincinnati defense that's just fraudulent. Like they had to show up in that game, right? They just had to show up for one or two downs and they could not do it against Lamar. And that's what I can't shake here. I wanted to be with Chad.

I wanted to be on the Bengals because I've seen invested in their futures and I'm just like this is the perfect bounce back spot for them in their prime time game after that brutal loss. But I just think the Giants are too well coach and they've been playing too well to just be rolled over here. And even though I thought this was going to be more public, I thought more public money would come on the Giants, chat. just said it like this is all bangles money all the tickets are on the bangles as well so um

i would take the three and a half here and hold and just hope maybe that you know neighbors gets cleared and that would give me even more confidence here but if there is no neighbors tad i don't know if i want to force us to put this as one of our five because it's just to me that's Seattle game they got a little lucky to win that one without them right like a lot of things broke their way that offensively Seattle played terrible and you know Daniel Jones had my mind the best game I've seen him have since his

first start ever against the bucks which was like five six years ago so I love this Giants team I love how their defense matches up against this offense for the Cincinnati as well so yeah you can see I really like this spot for this team and yeah

this it's all about the numbers if this was two and a half I'd be happy to play Cincinnati here it's three and a half I'm going to take the value and play the Giants here. Well, look, as Evan has pointed out, this is the first weekend where the spreads aren't so, so tight, right? We've got a few games that are six plus points against the spread, but this has been an historically year for short numbers.

And I think heading into the week, the average spread was 4.2 points per game. those half points just on a percentage increase mean more when the numbers are shorter. So I get it. I'm a little anxious about this one for the contest, like you said, because of neighbors. We got a lot of games we can throw in there. Last game, also disgusting. Buffalo with the New York Jets. So now we know it's not going to be Robert Sala.

He was fired Tuesday morning right before we came on the air. We know that there's going to be a new play call. We know you want to bet on the team that is against the public after a bad game, the Jets. We know we want to bet on home dogs. We know we want to bet the Dead Cat Bounce, one of Stuckey's favorite trends, which is betting on the team that has a brand new coach. I'll be honest. This is a massive pro-Jose game, like 77% of the tickets on the bills. the money is split but trending in favor of the Jets

like it'll get to 50-50 pretty soon. So clearly it's a professional game. It was at two and a half. Has it moved back to two? No, it's still two and a half. So you can get two and a half. I kind of like this better than the Giants and the contest, to be honest. I don't know how you feel.

I don't. I like the Giants better, but that's fair. Just it's the Obviously the match Of this Jets defense is great They always play Josh Allen really well To me it's all the injuries to this Bill's team The bill's just have so many injuries to key players

You just see last week against Houston I could change their whole team Especially You know I don't know this Their offense is just I don't know what they are yet And you know through five weeks

you know, they had moments where Josh Allen looked incredible, right? Like the MVP we all know and love. And then you just see the hits piling up. And it's just like they're asking so much of their Superman to do. Like, when does this catch up to him? And this is not a matchup where you want to all be on Josh Allen's shoulders, right? This jet's defense, they tend to turn him over and they play him really tough. I mean, even going back to the last three years when Sala was there, they played really well.

I know he's gone now, but the scheme's still the same. The guy who's stepping in there is kind of like not his clone, but basically the same kind of guy. So, yeah, looking at this matchup, I already like the number. Now you're mixing in what you just said. They got rid of the head coach. They made a change the offensive coordinator. I think if this isn't allowed a fire under this Jets team's ass, then their season is over. Like this has to be the everything game.

They throw it all out there. So even talk about Josh Allen being banged up, right? that was another part of this. So we love, we love this number. We love this matchup. Our hardest thing is having to wait until Monday to know what our final five is. So that's the only thing that might keep this out from being one of our five. I know that's honestly.

I know this sounds stupid. But I got to travel on Monday. I like, I really won't be able to settle in for the game. Like, I don't, like when I get, I'm traveling to L.A.

I don't know if I can be awake when I, to watch the end of the game. Like, It's like, I don't know if my heart can take it. No, it's tough. But yeah, I love this one and I think Chad does too. So this is probably why this guy ended up on our money line round robin parley's. But yeah, we're literally betting on Josh Allen to lose three straight games,

which I thought was scared. And then Evan, nice Evan told us that actually happened last year. So don't be too scared off by Ben Josh Allen to lose three straight games. Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time. for the Moneyline Parlay. Well, listen, speaking of our Moneyline Parlay, each week we give out a two-team money-line underdog parlay,

and Bet365 boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages. And remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo where your Money Line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17. point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, better to bet 365. And the boosted money line parlay is Panthers, Jets.

Find the boost under either the Panthers or Jets game pages on Bet365. Also a favorites contest reminder. Everyone's lowest weekly score in the contest has officially been dropped. The updated total scores are now on the leaderboard. We are officially in a race for our $40,000 first place prize. Good luck to everyone. All right. Now we got to get into our money line underdog round robin. There will come a payday. Hallelujah. What a payday. There will come a payday someday. Someday. There will come a payday. There will come a payday. There will. There will come a payday.

Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday. Clearly, we're going to have the Panthers and the Jets. We should probably put in the Giants. Okay. Do we go with a pick, neither of us are on, but the public gloves in Denver money line? Okay.

Oh, man. I mean, I really want to go against the Ravens, but Lamar just doesn't lose those games. but that's a nice value on Washington plus 2.35. I'm surprised you're hesitating because I thought for sure you were going to put that in there. I would, but Evans Trends scare the shit at me. He's only lost one game in his career. But again, it was to the NFC East.

So maybe, yeah, maybe that's his krypton night in NFC East. So let's do it. Let's do it. Now you're reaching deep into the bag of hope to try to pull out your favorite gift. It's a tough week to find dog wins. Honestly, why don't we do the Colts? All right, let's do the Colts. Yeah.

All right. So the money line, round robin. That is going to be Panthers, Jets, Giants, Broncos, Colts. Simon. You can do you get a truette now? Are we skipping it again? No, no. It's in the script.

I'm going in order now. First, I need your biggest bets. Who, right now, my biggest bets are Detroit, chalk. Wow. Giants, not chalk. Jets, New England, and probably going to be Green Bay. I mean, like right now, my two biggest ones right now are the Cowboys, I mean, the Lions and the Giants, but I can see me adding more to the other positions

by Sunday. It's weird how those could be the exact five we end up putting in. It could be terrible for us. It's true. It's just like, if we were to look at it right now, I think it'd be hard to leave New England out. It'd be hard to leave the jets out, unfortunately. Like, we both feel really good about Detroit, you know?

Yeah. And I feel like I convinced you on Green Bay, and now you've convinced me two favorites and three underdogs. Like, very possible, that's where we end up landing. I'm not in a rush to put anything in right now. All I know is, whoever we leave out, it's definitely going to win. Yeah.

So listen, Scoot Trulette, you're three and two this year. Somehow I'm 0 and 5. What? I think I did the math, unless I did it wrong. Yeah, because you won. I'm almost positive you won week one with me. Oh, I did? All right.

All right. Great. I'm one in four. Not your year. But you get to choose Scutrullet because you are winning the season-long contest. All right. I'll be a scumbag. I'll take your pick.

I'll take Detroit minus three. You are a fucker. That is ruthless. All right. You know what I'm going to do? Yeah. At this point, I got nothing to lose.

It's true. Give me the paths plus seven. Love it. I mean, why not? Yeah. Scoot would be proud. You know what?

As Scooch says, when all hope is gone, all that's left is relief. It's true. And in Scoot, I've basically come to that. A scogeism brought back from the old school pod. Jesus.

That's high praise, man. I love it. All right. We've got our last word here with Evan Abrams, the director of research. Tell us something that'll make us happy, Evan. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

All right. Well, we're into bye season. So with by season comes me just telling you why Simon's picks are going to hit this week. But aside from that, let's just go with the Lions first. So teams off a buy versus a team not, which is very easy last 20 years. Those teams win 56.1% of games.

Awesome. When they're road neutral favorites, that actually goes up to 70% on the money line. Now that also includes the chargers this week. So a little bit of buyback there in terms of how you guys might feel. Okay. One more level to it, which I think actually Simon brought this up earlier

when talking about the game. So Dallas had that comeback last week. entering the fourth quarter losing and won outright as underdogs. When those teams are dogs again in their next game after that situation, exactly as I spoke, 31 and 71 straight up, 30%, 46, 56 against a spread, 45% last decade. Just tough to get over that and do it again. And then you're talking about short week as mentioned.

So a few factors would tell you to take the Lions. Now let's talk about the Giants and Bengals for a second. So I kind of wanted to focus on just Cincinnati in this spot. Lots of scoring, high totals-ish, volatility isn't a great thing for predictability and covering spread. So Cincinnati right now is the only team in the NFL scoring 28 plus and allowing 28 plus. Those teams through five games, just 37 and 48 against a spread, 43% last 20 years. When they're away from home, that falls to 40% against the spread.

When those teams are under 500, that falls to 38%. So just a good spot for the Giants in that one. And then I'll end here. This game really wasn't talked about a ton. You've got Chad's Bears. You've got the Jaguars who pretty much live in London. So I kind of wanted to give a few numbers on that game. So Caleb Williams, by my data, will be the six rookie quarterback to start an international game.

They didn't waive and won any. 0 and 5 straight up. O and 5 against a spread. Four of the five lost by 14 plus points. So a bit of a difficult spot in just a blanket term. Then you kind of look at Jacksonville side. Peterson's four and one straight up on neutral sites, obviously winning the Super Bowl, but he's three and one with the Eagles and Jags overseas.

Jags are actually themselves over 500 straight up in ATS and international games, which I didn't think was actually the truth till I looked at it. Trevor Lawrence, his fifth game overseas. He's three and one straight up at ATS against the number. He's actually scoring 22 points per game in those games. I'll go one step further before I get out of here. So this is Trevor and Doug's fifth international game. It's only Caleb and Iberflus's who.

first. Those coaches with two plus game experiences in that international game, four in one straight up. When the QB also has a two plus experience, they're two and oh straight up. Very small samples, but probably just tells you what you would know anyway, which is experiencing these short week, weird overseas when you go games kind of matters. I mean, taking it in. It's going to be hard to bet the bears this week. Yeah, that's what we're saying. You know you're supposed to bet the Jags here, but it is. is tough. It's a tough one. It's a really tough one. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365 customers get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using

promo code favorites deposit $10 in place to bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary at Bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap our NFL week 6, download

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Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app,

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I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen you. the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me.

I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional

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