The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 7

Episode Date: October 17, 2024

The Chiefs and the 49ers are the game of the week in the NFL, as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they discuss a massive Detroit Lions matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, give some praise to the Tampa Bay Bucs, give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs. Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me.

Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,

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84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor it? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.

Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John remote studio here in my hotel room. and I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad, you picked a great time to head out west. It is cold on the East Coast. You know what, Simon? Since I've been in L.A., it has been gray and 65 degrees. So I'm struggling. It is not, you know, a bowl of cherries out here with my view of the ocean, just hobnobbing with celebs and going to fancy places for dinner. I am struggling right now, okay?

I mean, I'm sitting in a hotel room. I can barely control the AC. It's not easy. I would like a little bit of sympathy for myself. Today is our NFL Week 7 Best Betts episode where Simon and I narrow down our five picks in the favorites $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365.

Sign up now, Favorites. dot action network.com. We will also get into the foxhole, give out our Tommy John, big balls, bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line, underdog parlay, the underdog round robin, and so much more bets are rolling in, lines are moving. Decisions need to be made, as our volume podcast boss, Colin Coward likes to say. There's a sea of money out there.

As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and now new Bet365 customers. get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary a bet 365 must be 21 or older. And present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. terms, conditioned, restrictions apply. All right. As always, on Thursdays, during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are that influential. We know the lines are moving based on what we say.

And then the pros must tell us what they think. Of our opinion. Simon, let's do sharp calls. Hello. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do?

Yeah, we'll start right where the game we like. We like Cleveland. They got up to six and a half. It's back down to five and a half at a lot of books. Should have known this was going to come back down, but no one thought of Mario Cooper was worth over a point to the spread. So that was a bad overreaction by the books. Professionals come in and I know play professionals, I still like them at five and a half.

So as long as you can still find the six, which I would shop around for, I think that's where the pros kind of have broken on that one. So again, that's a game we're going to dive into pretty heavy coming up here. Surprisingly, a game I flipped on a lot of pros, a lot of guys I talk to, the Sharp guys. They love Green Bay. They love Green Bay at minus two and a half, so I know. Oh, my God. I like Houston.

I like Houston a plus three. I'm probably going to avoid it. Either take Green Bay to two and a half or just avoid it altogether. It just seems like most of the guys I talk do like the Green Bay side. The reason seems pretty sound. I think a lot of their think is the same with you. It's like this number should probably be three, three and a half. You're getting two and a half because there's so much respect and love in the general public right now to CJ.

The value definitely looks like it is on Green Bay there. So a game I was pretty wrong about. A game we nailed that the number had moved too much, the lines. That was plus two and a half. Shout to anyone that does early entries like I do in our contest. You were able to get the lines two and a half. That was nice to. I did I just put my picks in usually right when we get done our show on Tuesdays

I know our fans want us to do Thursday so that's why I didn't even hit chat up I was like we can't put them these in anyway but I knew that Detroit number was gonna move it was just insane that had gone up to two and a half that came crashing back down at one and a half so it's nice to know we're on the same side because I was scared I was like who's moving all this Minnesota money and I think me and you talk about it all the time like there's professional groups who they'll come in small on one side, the books will react thinking it's professional money taking that side

and then when they get the number they want, that's when they come in heavy. That was the classic Detroit case. Even when I open up the app, I'm sure you've seen it. It's like 90% of the money right now is on this Detroit team. That's a public and professional play there. Games, we'll go to the ones that people are split on. I really like the Giants plus three and a half.

I talked to playing professionals who had my same view of. If this gets a two and a half, how do you not take the Eagles? And a couple of them are just taking them at three. They don't think it's ever going to get the two and a half. So if you like the Eagles, go grab the minus three. I just don't think it's ever going to get down at two and a half. I don't think there's enough professional money coming in,

especially the unknown with neighbors. We've just seen that number now. And now Andrew Thomas. Like Andrew Thomas is massive, literally massive, but also a massive loss for the Giants. A game I love, Chiefs, pretty split, professionals I like it for you. There's pros like me that love the Chiefs. You can talk in Nizuam about how the Chief's team's got so many injuries while the 4-9ers are getting healthier at this point.

They have the offensive weapons, yada, yada, yada. At the end of the day, it's my homes as a dog. Like, you just, I'm not going to budge on my stance on taking my homes as a dog. It's just a long-term, profitable spot to take this guy. He just always covers in these type of scenarios. So that's been a lot of discourse on that one. That one's really split, yeah, between the professionals. And the last one, again,

game, we touched on a little bit. Again, another game I got lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday, Jets, minus one and a half. It's now moved up to two and a half. Not shocking at all because we talked about it. If Russell Wilson was going to become the starter, this was going to keep moving against this Pittsburgh team. It's looking more and more like that's going to happen here. And the last one is a game we talked about. We already knew this was a professional side, but it's the bucks, right? The bucks number got up to four and a half Sunday. It's been bet down to three and a half. Some books even touched three and then it went back up to three and a half and I think that's where it should be right. And I was hoping to get more info on Mike Evans.

Unfortunately, I haven't really heard much. I know it's a soft tissue injury that, you know, he might miss the game, but the line doesn't reflect that right now. So still very confident in our books bet, but that's, that's very public, Ravens heavy professionals around this Buccaneers team. Yeah, I've been checking injury reports from Mike Evans. I haven't seen anything yet. But look, we're going to get into all these games. I think some of the games that you mentioned are very interesting.

Obviously, the Steelers Jets, obviously the Chiefs and Niners. Those are marquee matchups from a betting perspective. Short numbers, going to be a lot of opinions. We talked about the public all season long, how it had been a dreadful year for the public. This season so far, 38, 49, and 3, 43% against the spread this season. Now, as we said, through five weeks, that was the worst start ever, the past 20 years. Now it's the fourth worst start through six weeks because the public went 10, 3, and 1 last week.

So you were so pressuring it last week, right? Like you said the public is due. we did add more daily, more chalky picks than normal to our phase five. Those were the games we actually won. So the question will be how aggressively are we leaning into the fading the public this week? How much will that regression that we expect factor into impacting the games we like? The first game, we touched on it on Tuesday. You didn't mention it in sharp calls, and you and I have not discussed it at all since then,

I did put Miami and Indy back in there because we leaned dolphins three and a half. It's now three. It's come down. I think it's come down because a lot of people, as soon as Anthony Richardson was, it was indicated that he would likely be the starter. People started betting on the dolphins. We didn't think it would be in our top five. I just left it on the list because there is such a pro-Joe discrepancy with the money on the dolphins and the tickets on the cold. Do you have any opinion on this game that you feel more strongly about it because Anthony Richardson is now expected to be the starter?

No. It's just a game I'm staying away from. It's like there's plenty of ugly dogs this week. And then there's some dogs that aren't that ugly that's like, I'd rather lose six figures on Detroit or the Chiefs than fucking with this Miami team again. It's like I can't be bothered with putting a lot of money on this one. And I'm hoping you weren't going to force me into putting this in the contest because you're right. The pros like this spot for Miami, but it's kind of the same thing for last week. These guys came in heavy as shit this group on the Tennessee Titans against the Colts because we all agree.

The Colts have a really bad defense and they have some questionable weapons on offense. And, you know, no Jonathan Taylor, Pittman's banged up. Like there's a lot to be negative about this Colts team. And I get why other professionals coming the other side of it. It's just, I just can't do it. I can't put heavy money on this Miami team right now. All right. That's fine.

Like, we've been burned. Like, I'm still a little bit hungover from that Jets loss and, like, that Giants loss. So we're going to have plenty of bad quarterbacks to bet on and plenty of ugly games to bet on. We don't need to force one. No, just get, and find better numbers, right? Like, it's three now. Most books, like, you kind of miss the three and a half right on Miami. Like, I wouldn't just take the three.

I'd try to get the three and a half. Seattle and Atlanta. We leaned Atlanta when it was two and a half. It's now three. I don't think, you know, like all the matchup, all the breakdowns. What's interesting to me, it makes me one Atlanta even more, the public loves, loves, loves Seattle. And even after all that, the line has still moved from two and a half to three.

Is there anything that says, we're considering Atlanta because at this point it's such a public fade? Or do we think Seattle is healthier? They're coming off a buy. Atlanta is getting so lucky. They could easily be 0 and 6, 1 in 5, 2 and 3, whatever it is. Instead, they are where they are because they've really gotten lucky. including, by the way, that Panthers game, which was much, much closer than the score indicates.

Yeah, this is the game that we talked about. I just let the number dictate my pick. I took Atlanta minus two and a half, and I said if it gets up to three and a half on Seahawks, if I had to made a bet yet, I would take that number. Like this just screams a game where the final, whoever's the ball last is going to win this by field goal, right? Like, I don't have confidence right now in either defense, but I have more confidence in this Atlanta defense in Seattle. It's just, Seattle's defense has just been so bad for so many weeks in a row. Anytime they play a good offense, they just get rolled right now. And, I mean, we both agree.

Atlanta's a really good offense right now. Like, it's humming. Even though they have injuries to the offensive line, they really haven't lost the beat. So I do. I like the match up for Atlanta. I'd still take them a minus two and a half, but you're right. It's going to get to a point where it's like, you know, if it's three and a half, that's going to be tempting to take Seattle.

It's going to be a nice. Nice value on a back door. I met a guy last night who's an investor and he, like that's what he does for a living, right? And we were talking about betting and he was talking about how minuscule the margin of error is when you are making a bet. And going from two and a half to three to three and a half and the value that people find at three and a half versus the value that people find at three and a half versus the value that people at two and a half. It truly is when you're betting, unlike anything else,

in equity markets because the band of sort of miscalculation is so much bigger than trying to nail a half a point when betting on a game. To see someone whose livelihood is in the investment space thinking about the narrow margins in betting. And here we are talking about three and a half.

I like one side, two and a half. I like the other. It's an extra point. You know what I mean? It's just because we've seen it all, though. That's why, like, we joked last week. We were freaking out about that Green Bay half a point, and it's like, didn't even matter in any which way.

And that's just because me and you have been around long enough where it's like sometimes those half of points are a big deal, and they do matter. And we try not to react to it. But yeah, I told you, I'm a big believer in, yes, getting the best of the number is important, but it's also like you just want to be on the right side. So I try not to let it always dictate us where it's like if we like a side, like I just said, there were a bunch of good numbers.

Me and you could have locked it on Tuesday, but we can't do that to the fans of the show, right? That's why I didn't even bother texting. People want to listen here, hear us go through our picks today and make those picks. So how would I help anyone on this show if I'm telling you, well, I already got Detroit two and a half. so no bet for me. I already got the good best number. I'm on to the next one. So it does matter, but at the same time,

it's like if I thought Detroit, this number was going to come down to the two, I wouldn't give it out, but it's like, no, I think you still have a lot of value on Detroit a plus one and a half, so I still have no issue taking that number. As Scooch once said,

the right side is the winning side. Yeah. Yeah. That's what it comes down to. Green Bay. As Millman once said, Green Bay feels like the side here two and a half.

Sharp and angle man. Chad Milman is proud of himself. Clearly the sharps agree with what Milman is saying. God, I hope you're wrong now. It's like he's a professional. You know what? He just doesn't get appreciated the way that he should for his understanding of the sports betting markets.

Green Bay minus two and a half. There are a lot of books that have it at the rape. Houston, but we're talking about that three, six, five, It's at two and a half. Houston is the public dog. There's so much public love for Houston right now. It definitely makes me like Green Bay even more. Now that we've gotten, you know, some confirmation from my fellow sharps,

I feel even better about it. You're obviously not feeling great about it. You might even feel like you're being bullied into it. No, I agree with them that that's probably the right number. I just still have major questions about this Green Bay team. They're so dependent, defense. on turnovers. Like, that's the only thing I could think of is like, okay, maybe they'll get the young kid on the road here and get him to turnover. Because you're right, like the splits are different between him at home and him on the road. Like you said, it's all about the number at the end of the day. It's like, okay, two and a half. That's the good number. I trust the guys who are saying that. I'll take it. All right, Simon, I can't believe what I'm about to say. I'm in a hotel, so I can't go crazy. Why not? You'll never be there ever again. You never know. It is time for all.

Big balls Bed of the Week Presented by Tommy John If you've got the balls Tommy John has the support Great games start with great underwear And Tommy John makes the greatest My friend sack up

Because we are going With Cincinnati at Cleveland And we are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six You mentioned it in the sharp calls This line got Way too aggressive. It got up to six and a half while we were doing the show on Tuesday as Amari Cooper was traded.

We know we don't want to bet to Sean Watson. But this one is like a big, fat, hanging curveball that is tempting us. And we are either going to flail and look terrible and swing so hard we hurt our back and fall to our knees, or we are hitting this one so freaking far. out of the park that we are going to look like the courageous big balls betters that we are yeah i wish it was still six and a half right that was really nice that was a nice gift by the sports books there uh moving that by a full it was a minute like everyone you know it it wasn't it it's like it's like young love it just can't last i mean i saw a couple books touch seven so

it it got up there like they were obviously panic moving that number because so much money it was flooding. But terrible move. And we talked about this is a nice matchup defensively for Cleveland against this, you know, Cincinnati offense that obviously they want to push the ball through the air. I don't know if I'll be able to do that against Cleveland here. And then on the flip side, this should be a get right game finally for Watson. This is one of the worst defenses he's played this season.

He knows he's got to hear the noise right. I mean, they just trade his number one receiver. This team is basically just saying to him, Like we're semi giving up on the season here. You know, I love desperate teams in these type of scenarios. So we talk about we think we're getting a free point and a half of points just because of what happened last week. Yep.

Because it's the Brown, you can probably throw another point in there, right? This probably should be only three, three and a half in a divisional game like this is. So, yeah, a ton of free points of value here. We are betting on one of the worst teams on football and easily the worst quarterback right now in football, right? If you just look at the numbers, it's never. fun, always scary. Got to hold your nose. Trust the number and take the number here with Cleveland. Yeah. Also, Cleveland's getting better, right? Their offensive line is getting a little bit healthier.

Jack Conklin is back. You're a nice guy. That's a big deal. Nick Chubb is finally going to be back. That's a big deal. There are some pieces here that I think will make Deshaun Watson look a little bit better. I don't know if he'll play better, but maybe he's not staring at the rush right in front of him immediately and then taking off. Maybe he will feel a little bit more confident. Maybe they will run the ball a little bit more effectively. So there is an opportunity here to pounce on the browns in a big division rival game. And so, you know, like we have to fade the, public when they are coming in on the bangles as such a big road favorite as heavily as they are it's we got to do it yeah and just an overreaction too like okay i say the giants do cover that

three is this number really this high still i don't think so so there's a lot of things right now where it feels like it's an overreaction we're getting really good value on this cleveland team and um yeah the like i said matchups defensively and offensively this is as good as it gets for this Cleveland team. Our sponsor, Simon, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It's what makes us comfortable making a big balls bet of the week on the Cleveland Browns. The underwear has changed my life.

The shirts have changed my life. The pajama bottoms have changed my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John. get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at tummyjohn.com slash favorites. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way,

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from the dumbest people you know Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Coutura podcast network available on the IHart Radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcasts It's all right Look we've talked about Detroit and Minnesota

We wanted more time to research this on Tuesday As we were doing that The line pushed up to two and a half Simon Like you said Immediately got some buyback I think it's interesting you should explain a little bit more like the scenario that you're talking about and you mentioned about how professional better is manipulate the lines

because it's worth an extra 30 second explanation because a lot of people don't understand it. So explain that a little bit. You know, we talk all the time. Two has become a very key number. And you saw a play out this week with this Vikings team. So a lot of books open them minus one. Sunday night, professional money comes in on the Vikings.

They get up to two, a little bit more money. Right? These professionals keep betting it. So again, it's not big money. It's like $1,000. That's how much these books will take on individual bets Sunday and Monday. Unless you really know them, maybe you get $10,000. They'll come in, put another couple thousand on it on Tuesday. Move it a little more, and the books will finally move it across that key number of two and a half.

And then basically, you know, it depends on many runners you have, but simultaneously you'll hit multiple books at the same time. Get the two and a halfs before all the books move it. Because basically, I mean, the truth is a lot of these books, they're moving their number off air. Like, professional betters aren't hitting, I mean, I'm not trying to call it these different books, but there's some books that, like, they ban you instantly. I mean, you are instantly banned, and they don't take big bets, especially from runners, professional betters, all that noise. They'll just move their number based off what other books are moving their numbers, right?

They're not even moving off other people's bets. So, yeah, the books that can't get the professional money, they know right away that they kind of fell into a little bit of a trap and that they might have moved the number too much. And, you know, we talked about it, right? Losing the number one, the end of football, or number two, I guess, behind T.J. Watt, in Hutchison should move the number. But did they move it too much? I think that's what the books did, right? They thought that, you know, they're getting ahead of it. The professionals were agreeing with them.

They were getting a good movement here, and it kind of came back on them where it's like, I think a lot of people like us are just really skeptical of this Vikings team still. And on the flip side, it's how, I mean, I've never been more confident in this lion's offense. I mean, they've just put up back-to-back 40-point games. Like it's all clicking right now. And, you know, even if their defense suffers here, I don't know how that affects their offense. Like they just, they are in full blown, run it down your throw. And if that doesn't work, they're going to be able to move it through the air.

I mean, that's just how dominant this team is right now. So I haven't wavered. I still like them despite them being probably the most public dog, right? I think they're getting all the money, all the bets right now in Detroit. And me and you talked about it, just don't think the books have caught up to them. And, you know, in my mind, this is just a little bit too much respect to a Vikings team that, not that their wins have been fluky, but a lot of things early in the season went their way with a lot of their games. between the turnovers and how well Brian Flores had this defensive play.

And then, you know, Sam Darnold. Like that was his first bad game of the year was that game in England. And, you know, maybe he got it right during this bi-week. But, okay, you just face the Jets defense. I mean you think are pretty good, but I think overall the Lions defense has probably been better this year. I don't think it's going to get any easier for him trying to pass the ball downfield against the Detroit defense.

So one thing I want to clear up for people is, is professional better is getting $1,000 down early in the week. If a professional better gets $1,000 down on a game early in the week, sometimes that is the equivalent of that same better, getting $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, or more later in the week. Because bookmakers, you say they're sort of moving on air. That basically means bookmakers are just moving the number without any bets coming in.

They're responding to what they're seeing from other operators and assuming those operators who might be more, client to take professional betterers money are getting money and so everyone's moving it's why lines all move at the same time but professional bookmakers also they book on faces and so if simon walks in or someone else walks in that they know as a professional better even if they're taking a what's called a nickel bet $500 or dime a thousand dollars they're going to move that number based on who the better is not on the money taken. And so that's why the money amount

doesn't really matter at that point in the season or that point in the week because it's about the better who's making the bet. And that's how the line can get manipulated or how the line can move the other way. As for the lions, co-signed everything.

Like, we have felt this for a couple of weeks. Their offensive line is so dominant. And there was definitely a change in the play calling to be more physical, to be more run-focused, to have Jared Goff play more within the system when he's amazing. And you're right. This doesn't impact the defense. The worst unit on the field will be the Vikings offense. And so how much will a diminished Vikings' defense have to overperform against a Vikings' offense that is really middle of the road, Right? And so now you've got a number one Vikings defense going against a dominant lion's

offense, but the offensive line is so good. Will it be able to control the Vikings pass rush, which is their strength because Brian Flores is so good at devising different blitz scheme. So yeah, they are a huge public dog. I hate it. Dan Campbell is great against the spread. Dan Campbell is great as an underdog. Five in O teams. I got this from Marine. Ray Brown listening to the six-pack. Five-and-o teams at home, 44% against the spread the past two decades. And then this was great from Raybon.

You know I love ref stats. Clay Martin is the ref. Road Underdogs with Clay Martin, 70% against the spread. So we're going with the lines. They'll be in the contest. Yeah, and one thing I'll say really quick, though, when you talked about Betters getting their bets down,

I talked about that. COVID, I mean, as horrible as it was, obviously, for many reasons. For betters, it's been great because you can wear masks now in these casinos, and that's been a game changer for a lot of people. And I mean, me and Chad talked about it ages ago. Like, when I go to the books, I go to work when everyone goes to sleep. Like when the main pit boss is leave, that's my time to shine, right? When the secondary unit's in there at night. And Chad knows, I mean, I talk about the tricks of the trade. You act drunk with a mask on.

You go in there. You act sloppy like you don't hear you're doing. You're just throwing money around on stupid bets. I've never in my entire life had anyone say no on a bet after midnight when I have a mask on acting like I'm a little intoxicated. But if you go in midday when the books are empty, no mask on and you're asking to put 10K down on the Browns, someone's going to come down to talk to you. But if you do that at three in the morning, no one's come down to talk to you. They're going to be like, what an idiot. Yeah, what happy to take this guy.

money on this Brown's bet so definitely if you're someone that's ever been banned or whatever they can't stop you from going in there and once they take your bet they've taken it they're gonna pay you out no matter what and they'll just give you the same speech that give me every time which is did you know you were banned here you're not supposed to be betting here and you just oh I didn't realize and that's how it is so they can not let you in it's a private business once you're in you make the bets they've taken the action they have to pay you out so that's just something to keep in mind people you don't even if you

you are banned from a book, that can't stop you from going until they catch you. At 10 a.m., the ticket taker turns around and gives it a quick. Approval. Approval, please. Yeah. One more stat. Short home favorites in the division of three points or less, 45% against the spread. The past 20 years, 42% since 2020. I put Carolina, Washington in here. Washington is an eight-point favorite. Again, Panthers are the play, every metric, every trend. it all says bet the Panthers. We will not be putting in this contest. I just want that on the record.

Carry on. Yeah, the Jay and Daniels comminers, they have some hard regression coming. I think they're nine for nine on fourth downs this year. It's just, it's impossible. We're not even, we've said all we have to say about the Panthers. We have, we have. We've given the people our opinion.

We're not going to torture anybody. We've already given the Browns. Let's move on. Las Vegas at the Los Angeles Raiders. This number has moved to full point since you pegged it, as Simon says, on Sunday. And like, to me,

this was about getting the best of the number when you said it and you were right. All the money and all the tickets on the Rams. I do want to say, like, I don't feel strongly we're going to put in the contest. I do lean Raiders at six and a half. I do think the score last week was so lopsided for so many regressible reasons

on the part of the Steelers that I do think you're getting a little bit more value. on the Raiders then probably is warranted given the RAMs situation. I agree with you. We'll take them, but my fears of all the teams right now that I've watched on film. There are a few teams that look like they quit in certain games. The Raiders have like two games that should they look like they've quit on the games.

And it's not like games are getting blown out. It's like pretty close games and they just kind of give up in the second half. So I'm with agreeance. Like this number is a good number. you should take this on the Raiders here, but, man, it's just so bad and so negative with this Raiders team. I feel more comfortable if I see them actually get out the gate and win one of these games and get a cover here. It's just hard to back them right now. It just feels like everything's so negative surrounding this team.

Game of the week, game of the season, Super Bowl rematch, Kansas City at San Francisco. San Francisco was a one-point favorite. Your assignment says on Tuesday, when this was at one and a half, take the Chiefs. And honestly, this line had not moved until, I think, late Wednesday night, early this morning, going back down from one and a half to one. And the chiefs are a massive public dog. So the fact the line had barely moved closer to pick says what I think what you indicated at the top of the show with Sharp Calls is that the books might be getting a lot of professional money on San Francisco. So I know we want to be on the Chiefs, and I feel the same exact way I did before the Super Bowl last year. The Niners roster is better.

The Niners have a better team. The Chiefs could easily be two and three. Listening to Stucky on the Action Network podcast, he made great points. Isaiah likely's toe could have been a loss when his toe was out of bounds on that game-tying catch. for the Ravens in week one. There was a PI call on a desperate heave by Patrick Mahomes in a game that the Chiefs ultimately beat the Bengals when the Bengals never should have let the Chiefs in that game.

They had a missed PI call when they were playing the Falcons that cost the Falcons the game. They have a lot of issues, right? No Pacheco, no Rishi Rice. They're not playing great. They're not moving the ball down the field. it's like this is the heart versus brain argument. Your brain says you got to take the Niners.

Your heart is saying, who the fuck bets against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog? Yeah, I think we all agree, though, that this 49ers team is better and they had better weapons and everything like that. But me and you are in total agreement that when it's in the fourth quarter, that's where the chiefs get you.

And if they can just keep this close, which I think they'll be able to, because we've seen it. this year. The 49ers just haven't been putting teams away. And that's kind of been their kryptonite this year. So we totally understand all the injuries that the Chiefs teams had. And we all knew that this was probably going to be a more public dog, right? Just because they are 5 and O. And Mahomes, you know, does usually cover these games. And I thought, me and you joked about it. It's like, how do you not put them in Detroit and a teaser? Like, again, both them across

seven and a half when they were both plus one and a half. Like, that's, that's too good to be true. So all this makes sense but at the end of the day it's just you said it it's like we can't not take Mahomes here it's just if he has the ball he's down by three in the fourth quarter I think we're at least going to overtime if not winning this game out right at the end

and you cannot say the same with Purdy and this 49ers offense I just you know as well as he's played it just feels like it's way too much on his shoulders right now and he's eventually going to get caught when he'd play against a really good defense And that's what we have here, right? A really good defense.

So, yeah, the chiefs running three tight-end sets and trying to make it work right now because they don't have any receivers. It's a little daunting to bet on it. But having Mahomes out plus number, it kind of eases the pain a little bit. So not going to overreact to it too much, just take the plus one and a half. I mean, do we really think this ends up in our contest? I'm not as convinced as you right now. About the Chiefs.

Yeah. It has to end at some point. Patrick Mahomes being able to do this and this team this year specifically not having the talent, not having the depth, being able to stay in these games and getting the lucky breaks they're getting. Like Patrick Mahomes getting you in the position to win the game or tie the game is one thing. Getting all the lucky breaks that they have been getting is entirely different. Like how can it keep happening? Because if you're really good, you put in the work, you put yourself in the right scenarios,

you make your own luck, Chad. Have you not learned that in life? So you can say that, but it's like... As always, the student becomes the teacher. You've learned nothing. You learn nothing from last year's playoff. They literally had the hardest road in NFL history to make it to the Super Bowl last year.

And they fucking did it somehow. And they took down an even better 4-9-Rs team than what we have here right now. So I'm with you. Like, there's a reason you should be nervous about this, but at the same time, it's like you just have to trust the number and trust Mahomes. Like he's just long term as a dog, he's going to be profitable for us for our entire lives. So yeah, if we don't win this one, all right, that sucks, but we know long term he's going to make us money betting him in this exact spot.

I mean, I think we're going to have about six games you want to put in, and this one is going to be on the fence. I really believe that. New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are now two-point dogs. It has ticked up since the Devante Adams news. But really, the real reason here is because of Russell Wilson practicing with the first team. And Adam Schaefter is saying that all signs are trending towards Russell Wilson, starting, which clearly is not the right decision.

But this is what makes the ticket and money split so interesting. The ticket's slightly more on the Steelers, the money decidedly on the Jets. As you said, the pros are on the Jets. like I feel actually okay with this in the contest. The things that worry me are the line flipping from Steelers to Jets. We know that historically, when that happened since 2019, the team that it flipped towards, that is now the favorite, 42% against the spread,

Tomlin is a home dog, the best coach as a home dog, the past 20 years, a generation. Let the greatest of all time look at your work. But look, the Steelers are missing. missing their center, Zach Frazier, top five center, according to pro football focus. They're missing their guard, James Daniels, top guard, according to pro football focus. So there are like factors here beyond Russell Wilson that make us lean jets. We all talk too much.

Sharp dudes can just see it. Yeah, but you're right. The numbers are moving a lot. Like I wouldn't mind locking this in, hopefully getting one to half in our contest because it is going up to two and a half of most books at this point. And, you know, it looks like I'll probably hit three by kickoff because it's going to be such a heavily publicly bet game. The Jets at this point. I agree with the line movement, though. Like, me, you talk about it.

I just, I think Russell Wilson's bad. And I don't think it's going to work out well for him being against a really good defensive front of the Jets that, yeah, they should have against their run, but they're pretty damn good against the pass. And their strength is their defensive tackles and the Steelers' weakness right now is that. In fact, they're missing, they're two of the best interior alignment in the NFL. So it's just, again, the lines are moving so much, I just want to grab it now because I think there is still value. But you're right. It's like you're nervous about that Chiefs game. This makes me nervous because it's like we're betting on one of the most dysfunctional franchises as a favorite that has a ton of drama going against a Tomlin team in what you're talking about.

It's like a rah-rah spot pretty much. Especially if it hits three, it really is. So a little nerve-wracking, but again, this is really a fade on Russell Wilson. I just, I think they're going to put him in there. He'll get demolish. And then next week we see Justin Fields once again. I don't know why they're doing it. It's so bizarre.

He's got into four and two. He's just, he's looked so well running the ball. And I know he doesn't been the best passer, but you need a running quarterback, especially behind such a bad offensive line. So I'm hoping you're taking advantage of a good number against a team that's in transition right now on this Pittsburgh team. A game that we both like, we can agree. I feel good it'll be in the contest. Tampa Bay plus three and a half.

This was my exact decision on Tuesday. I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked, secondary, 21st in the league in pass coverage, giving up 275 passing yards per game. By the way, that's 31st in the league. You're just ahead of the Jaguars. I like Vita Vaya as an obstacle for the Ravens. Ravens' rushing game. I think that's really important.

The things that worry me are the things that, look, not everything is a clear decision, right? These are all going to be 55 to 60 percent decisions. We acknowledge betting against Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not going to be any more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like, it's just what happens. And, like, it's infuriating because of his mobility

and because of his record against the NFC. And of course, we worry about Baker doing Baker things. But this is a pro Joe split. I'm sticking with the bucks. Yeah, and it's really, like you said, it's all about Vita V. If he can stop this whole Dare Canary run, that's the key.

Like, he's been so incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a big run, it feels like he gets it for him. And he's flipped a couple of games, it seems like, this season for this team. So that's the big one, and then like you talked about it. If Mike Evans is back, him and Godwin against his secondary, that's Chef's Kiss. It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively. Especially Baker, you know, as bad as he played against that Saints team with those turnovers,

he had those moments of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's so good. When he needs to pull it down and run the ball, he's been doing it this season. Like when things break down, he's got no issue running the ball. So we like backing Lamar, and it's only when it's under three. I mean, you talk about that trend. When it's under three, I think he's, what, 24 and 7 at this point against the spread? When it's above it, we do want to fade them. And, you know, last week ended up as being a push of the plus seven of the commanders.

But you see why. It's like they're, even in the Marshall career, you know, they usually, they used to blow teams out, but we've seen the last two years, games usually get a little tight. They get a little close towards the end. They really haven't been closing teams out like they used to them. That's why they went out and got Derek Henry to try to change that. And just has not worked out for them this year, right? Like every game for the most part for them is very damn close. So, you know, this is another game meaning you are just trust the number, right, Chad?

It's like plus three and a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog. I'm not a divisional dog, but a home dog that's like still a little underrated to the general public. And I don't think me and you would be shocked if they pull up the upset and give Lamarie's second career a loss to an NFC team. Right now, I believe he's 21 and 1 against the NFC. Pretty crazy. All right. The last game that we want to talk about is the chargers at Arizona.

You talked about Arizona. You're totally off the Giants. You don't like the Giants at all? I hate them. Without Andrew Thomas, like, I already think that offense is terrible. That offense at home is terrible. Eagles are on Milata. That's true, but the Eagles also are a little bit better than the Giants.

And like Andrew Thomas, I just like, I worry about what this team is going to do. That's fair. To me, that is like, look, you know offensive line is everything to me when I'm thinking about evaluating this team, these teams. It's why I love the Lions so much. It's why I have a little more confidence about the Browns this week. You're missing the only all-pro player on your team. And Malik neighbors, possibly. Who on the Eagles Passhaal scares you?

A 37-year-old Brandon Graham? I don't know. I'm just down on this Eagles team right now, but I get where you're coming from. But yeah, if people want to know where I'm still up, if you get the three and a half, take the three and a half. Let's talk about the charters and the car. for a second because you really like this game and you I acknowledge that we had to play it.

It's so tempting. But like I don't feel strongly about it. It feels like me either. Yeah, me either. So like if you're not feeling and I'm not feeling it, we got a list here of six. Well, it's just I, obviously I'd much rather take the bucks. If we're going to take one dog on this money night slate, I feel way more confident. And I like the number better.

Right. We're getting a great key number. But there was a minute there that it touched three for this car. Cardinals team and I was like, holy shit. This is three and a half. We're going to have two Monday night, three and a half dogs in our contest now. I was like, couldn't be beside myself. But luckily, it's come back down.

But the Cardinals have to be the right side. Like then, you know, we understand that they were going to struggle in that Green Bay game. But it's like, I told you, it's such a throwaway game with all the sloppiness and the turnovers in that rain. And then the flip side of this Chargers team, you know, Herbert played really well against. that Broncos team, but we've seen this year he's been inconsistent. And a lot of what they've done so well this year is run the ball. And that to me is why it's like, okay, I'm with you. I'm not rushing to go bet this Arizona team because their defense has just been so bad

for so many weeks in a row right now. Like I have pretty good handle and read on this team. Like, again, they've had injuries as well Arizona's defense. But man, they're so bad. It's really hard to have confidence of betting this team when it's not a plus three. So Arizona, if you got the plus three, that's great. If not, I wouldn't bet this one yet. I'd wait for it to maybe get back up the plus three by kickoff.

All right. It's really going to come down to the Packers minus two and a half, Cleveland plus six, Detroit plus one and a half, Tampa Bay plus three and a half. I think we're going to have a battle for the last spot between Kansas City plus one and a half and the Jets minus two. I think it's going to be really, really, really. interesting. Favorites contest, reminder, everyone's lowest weekly score in the contest has

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all night and he will run through a brick roll. Each week, we give out a two-team moneyline dog parlay, bet three-six-five, boosts the odds, highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages. Remember, both games are eligible for bet-365's early payout promo where you get your, where your money line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17-point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at bet-365. This week's boosted parlay. Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions.

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Simon, I got some opinions. Let's hear it. Well, of course we'll do the Chiefs, and of course we'll do Detroit. Chalkiest dogs, got to do them. Hello, Detroit. Hello, Detroit. Should we do the Bucks? Okay, I like that. That's fun.

Got to go Browns. I was going to say, how you feel about the Browns? Yeah, I mean, I have zero faith, but we have to go. That's such a huge number. It's a plus 200. Yeah. Give me one more. This last one was tough because there's just a bunch of ugly ones I like.

Just pure value base, Vegas plus 250 seems pretty tempting. How do you feel about that one? I don't mind it at all. Moneyline, underdog, Ron Robin. It's going to be the Chiefs. It's going to be Detroit. It's going to be the bucks. It's going to be the Browns.

It's going to be Vegas. Yeah. Oh, we did miss the foxhole. Shoot. I mean, it's got to be Detroit, right? How was it foxholy? Like everybody, like the wise guys like Detroit. Not all of them.

That's why this number, this isn't as all, all in. It was more about Detroit up to two and a half. That's where it was like. Okay. That was the professional heavy side. All right. Let's go with Detroit as the foxhole then. Because we know we're going to.

The only other one I could think of was the Jets, but like, is that really that foxhole either? You know? No, it's not. Kansas City feels more foxholy potentially to me. I love that you're so wary of this Kansas City. From a professional perspective, then, you know, then... Yeah, it does feel like you're doing something wrong there with that one. I do agree.

So, but let's go with Detroit. We know we're going to put Detroit in the contest. Let's make it the Foxhole. That's true. Good catch, Matt Mitchell. Way to produce, buddy. This is the tightest this 2004 team has been. We found something special, man.

I felt it's like we're in here together. Nobody's coming out of that circle, man. That's exactly where you want to be right now, all right? your biggest bets as we stand here Thursday definitely Detroit definitely Chiefs like as you say right now those are two ones I've hit jets I've hit pretty heavy bucks I'm waiting on because I'm still waiting on the Mike Evans information and you know Cleveland I wish I could have got more down the six and a half which I was right like I didn't really get that much so yeah sitting right now it's pretty

chalky honestly it's like I'm pretty heavy on lines at two and a half but pretty have on them at two. Same with the Chiefs, pretty heavy at one and a half. I could see by kickoff, you know, bucks, jets, browns, I'll make that, you know, list. You want to do Scooch Roulette? I want to do Scooch Roulette.

I mean, you're going to go first because you're crushing me right now. So go first. Choose the game that I want to choose because I know you're going to take my pick. So go ahead. Who would Chad want to take? I mean, I don't want to do bucks. I don't know if that's your pick. I might just keep going my

Detroit lines. That's what I want to take. All right, I'll give them to you then. All right, thank you. Listen, my job is to coach what's here, and I'm going to coach a hell out of them. I'll go Kansas City Chiefs. What? You are a baller.

That's amazing. All right, let's get Evan to tell us something. Save us, Evan. Save us, make us feel better. Evan Abrams, All right, let's get Evan to tell us something. Save us, Evan. Oh, God.

Save us, make us feel better. Evan Abrams, director of research. Talk to us. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. It's hilarious that Chad was one way on Kansas City. Simon just brought it all the way back, and I'm going to start with Kansas City

because we figured you guys were going there anyway. Here's maybe an angle you haven't heard, so I kind of put a few things together here. So last decade, Andy Reid has been a dog off a bye four times. Four and O straight up, four and O against a spread. In his career, that, Chad. Say it again one more time, Evan. It's four and oh, no straight up and against a spread, but that's just the last decade. So in his career, he's seven and two straight up and eight and one against a number. Oh my God, terrible. But his two losses, if you think the other

side's difficult, his two losses are to Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Real difficult there. Here's the one that I thought was just ridiculous. So Kansas City has gone 16 straight regular season games without winning the turnover margin. They're 11 and 5 in those games. So they win no matter what, and maybe if you get lucky, they get a few turnovers in this one. All right, let's go to Tampa Bay. To me, this bet is all about the number, strictly. Even after a 12-0 ATS run for road favorites the last two weeks, road favorites of three and a half or more are still just 45% since 2020.

Here's the fun one. Lamar is five and nine as a road favorite of three and a half or more since 2020. Here are the worst five quarterbacks ATS in that spot in that span. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. This is not an easy spot for anybody. So play the number here. And then I wasn't going to do this, but I'll give you one quick thing on Buffalo because I thought you guys early in the week were maybe leaning on laying the number. It's gotten up to nine, nine and a half. But it's worth repeating. We've said it on the show before. Allen has 72 wins in his career. 51 or 70% of those have all been

by seven points or more. When the line six or more, he's actually been in that spot 42 times. And of those 42, he's only lost eight. In that scenario, he usually does push the number up. And I tweeted this early in the week, Will Levis, 158 quarterbacks have started 10 games in the last 20 years. He's 2 and 12 against his second half spread. So even if it's close at the half, he is 2 and 12 second half ATS in his career. And outside of Monday night football where he's 2 and 0, he is 0 in 12 second half ATS. So even if it's close, you should be able to find a way to get a pick six there, guys.

I mean, those are great. Evan and I think the tragedy is really that Will Levis has had two games on Monday Night Football. That's also true. I think it's beating the Dolphins. I think it's a dolphin at this point in his career. It's bills or nothing like bills by a million. Sorry Matt Mitchell. We might have just mushed it, but it is what it is. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $200 and bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus. bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more.

Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or 180 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next exciting episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap NFL

Week 7, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feed back as a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800. Gambler. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygle and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app. or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey,

or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clivert Show on the I. hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important. year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kier Games.

This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.