The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 8

Episode Date: October 24, 2024

There bets are rolling in as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite plays across the NFL Week 8 slate. Together they discuss a massive Cowboys matchup against the 49ers, give some praise to the Detroit Lions, provide their weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs. It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John Home Studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my B, if that professional better. Simon Hunter.

Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing, brother? Listen, I'm a professional. You are? I have not spoken since I fell asleep, watching the Bulls get blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans last night.

So I'm ready to roll. I hope it's not too painful for our listeners. Today is our NFL week eight best bets episode where Simon and I narrow down our five picks and the favorites $100,000 pro football pickum contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now with favorites. That action network.com. We will also get into the foxhole.

Give our Tommy John big balls, bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted money line underdog parlay. The underdog round robin and so much more. Betts are rolling in. lines or moving decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss. Colin Coward likes to say, because there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using a promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those

bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more whatever the moment it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or 1 800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during the season we want to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are the lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions.

Simon, let's do. Sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Yeah, let's run through it. I think the books and the professionals think this is going to be.

a bad week for the public that the public is about to walk into it after getting fat for two straight weeks Chad so off the top a game I love I don't know if Chad's come around yet the Rams you love them or are you still in yeah well I know listen I know

the wise guys are all over it I know you all over it everyone's been talking about it the plus three I'll probably bet it but I'm doing it because you're on it and everyone's saying I should be on it now because I have to Everyone, yeah, that was my number one big call after our show is just make sure people take the Rams listen to the show.

So I'm sure we'll talk a little bit more about that one. So just run through it real quick. They love the Rams. Love the Browns. Another game that we talk a little bit about. Love the Jags. Obviously the Colts. I've been shocked by this Colts line movement.

Have you? I mean, I am shocked that this is down now at five at a lot of books. Well, I'm not because it was my exact decision and I tend to move the lines. Yeah, but it's just crazy. It moved off the key number of six. So yeah, another game will obviously die more into if we're going to take down our contest. Miami, aside, we're not really on. Professionals actually love that side.

I'm on the opposite side of this one here. I like Atlanta. A lot of pros I've talked through really like the bucks in this bounce back spot. Kind of a desperate team, I guess. Another game as well that I'm a little decided on was the Bills and Seahawks. Seems like a lot of the professionals love the Bills. I guess I need to come around more than Amar Cooper is a big deal. to them and that they have gotten healthier on defense.

And this actually is a nice spy. I know Evan had a piece in his article about, you know, just the exact scenario of Josh Allen, these kind of spots. He's actually not too bad. So that's when I'm probably not on the right side, taking it to the Seahawk. So I kind of see their perspective on that one. Bears, maybe I'll convince Chad get the Bears in our contest,

the professional that we love, love the bears in this upcoming spot. And last two, Raiders, I don't know if I've got Chad's full confidence in this Raiders pick, but I still think at the 10, 10 and a half in the contest. It's very tempting. And obviously the last one, we both like the Dallas Cowboys. We've both seen them come down now from six and a half,

five and a half, four and a half. Now they're down to four at most books. So that lines do exactly what I thought was going to do. I think it should be three and a half. It seems like that's exactly where it's heading for that Sunday night matchup. So yeah, right now we're on the right side

of a lot of games that we really like. And then a couple sides that, you know, maybe I need to get a little more bullied to the other side because I just, I don't know. It's hard for me to really want it back, especially Miami at minus three and a half.

So yeah, interesting in perspective this week from a lot of the professionals. So betting against the public after a bad game, that's 61% since 2005. There are a couple scenarios in the games that we're going to talk about

that will cover that. But you mentioned the public getting fat. Week 7, 10 and 4 against the spread. Week 6, 10, 3, and 1 against the spread. That is a bounce back after the public had started in the first five weeks with its worst start against the spread, meaning public is 51% or more of the bets on one side. It had been the worst start for those games in our history of tracking these games.

The last two weeks, 27 and 1. So huge bounce back. Someone is due for a regression right now. Either the public is still catching up to get to even, or it is time for the public to get slaughtered. We have learned a lot this week, trying to unpack our challenges specifically for the contest. We've been leaning heavy into these ugly dogs,

these trend picks that tend to go against the public. We may still do that. At least now we know it's a weakness, right? So if we do it and we get caught, it's not our fault. It's really just the number is not, the ball not bouncing our way. Arizona plus three and a half at Miami, I've heard the same rumblings. The wise guys loving Miami, they're loving the return of Tua. They like the cards.

They're like betting against the cars traveling in this short week. For me, ultimately, this wasn't going to make it. Like, I bet the cards at three and a half. I bet it because of the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just wanted the hook with Kyler, who, by the way, as a road dog, second best against the spread mark in that spot since 2003, according to Evan, like, we're never going to get all the trends and matchups to line up.

But in this one, it doesn't feel like we really have anything other than the number. Yeah, I just, I'll probably end up on Miami just because I know these guys who are taking I'm here pretty sharp. And, you know, they have their reasons. And I think at three and a half, Arizona totally get it. But at three, I'll go with the Miami. And they're just, how much worse can it get for this team? Like this feels like this is it for them in their season. That's why it feels a little bit like Tua is rushing back here and that they know that if they don't win this one, it's basically over. Right. I mean, they're just, that'd be too big of a hole for them to get out of. So you're right.

I'm happy we're actually avoiding this game. I'm not upset avoiding Atlanta minus two and a half. It's a divisional game with a road fave, not a spot we would historically love. But again, this season, home dogs, three, nine and one. 38% past two seasons. Home divisional dogs. Home divisional dogs. No Godwin, no Mike Evans.

Kirk off of a loss, 40 and 26, fifth best of 280 quarterbacks since 2003. And lest you think we can't back a road public fave starting in the 23 season until this past week, road public favorite, 62% against the spread. Something is going on in the past two years that we're going to have to decide. But is it a trend? Is it a lack of parity? Like, what is happening here that we're going to have to unpack? I know wise guys like the Bucks.

I would be with you. I still like the Falcons. Yeah, I still like the Falcons, but there's another routine that we talked about, the Bears, I'd much rather take where it's like, that game I could see going a certain way where this game, we always talk about this. The NFC South, sometimes you really never know, right?

Like this game could easily just be Tampa runs it down Atlanta's throat. And, you know, they never get a go in Atlanta, right? And that's the fear here. That, to me, is what I'm looking at, where it's like there is a path for the bucks. We're on that other game. I just, I don't know how the bears don't cover it. And I can easily see the bears going up, right? I can see that once Daniels is officially out, I talked about.

I think that could get up three and a half. So they will get good line value on that game where this game, I'd be shocked at this point because there's so much professional money coming in. on this buck's side that this number ever gets up to three three and a half all right this next game Tennessee at Detroit they got down to 10 and a half I bet it at 10 and a half it's back at 11 it doesn't matter if you have one ass cheek and three toes I will beat your ass you said you had this power rated closer to 14 yeah since we spoke the Titans have basically admitted they're done they've traded their best wide receiver in d'andre hopkins they traded one of their starting

linebackers. Neither of those moves will help them hold a first-half lead which they've blown three times this year. They are still tied with Baltimore for giving up the second most

second half points this year. Jared Goff, 30 and 10 against the spread, indoors the past four seasons. The Lions 70% against the spread the past four seasons.

Best stretch since 1980. Incredible. We've put so much emphasis on historical trends and not enough on player, coach, matchup. I wanted this to be our big balls. You have overruled me because last week I got to choose the Browns and it did not go well for us. And by the way, I would have taken the Browns again this week.

but in our history, we have never taken an 11-point favorite as our big balls. Never. I can tell you a game. I can remember off the top of my head, and we used to be able to pick Thursday night games in our contest, we took the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as like a, I don't even know, might have been like a 13-point favorite on the road. And he had a last second touchdown for us to cover that number. So that's a number that just pops in my head of like, that was scarring for me.

I don't think we ever took a big favorite since then because it was just we needed so much luck. We're here. You're a freak for remand. That is that is your superpower. You have a rain man like ability to remember every single win and loss and moments like that. We talked about this though. This line's number to me felt too short. It makes you feel good that it's coming back up because it's like I couldn't believe there was groups coming in bed in this Tennessee side where it's like there's some of the other dollars.

I'd rather invest my money and I'm shocked that people are trying to move this line. And you're right. Now we're seeing up to 11 and a half too at a lot of books. So that actually makes me feel better because I'm with you. I bet it at 10 and a half, better than 11. It's like, okay, this number should not be going down. This should be going up and now it is. Matchup wise though, we love this matchup in so many different ways for Detroit.

We both said the only way they lose if they beat themselves. They just have so many different ways that beat you offensively. We know golf is due for a letdown week. Maybe they're looking ahead to next week, right, when they're playing Green Bay. And that could be another reason they don't put it all together here. But my motto likes this. I like this. Chad likes this.

Feels like it's unavoidable. We're going to have this Lions in our contest, huh? So I did do a little pre-show sneak peek at the lines in the contest. Lions were 11 and a half. Yeah, I'd be fine with that. That's a dead number, honestly. Well, it's interesting because there were other ones that, of course, they're going to win this game 21-10 and we'll be like, God damn it. And like, look, like we've talked about the Jags.

We've talked about the bears. We've talked about the Colts. Like there's a lot of lines that have moved aggressively against us as we first started talking about them even on Sunday. So I think it's going to be challenging. 11.5 is a tough one. Like we rarely have put that in the contest. But, you know, I'm glad we're on the same page at least. I thought like this morning when we were talking about the lions and I was all in on it

and you were hesitant, I thought it's because you just didn't like the game. No, I just don't think it takes balls. I'll be honest. Like this, I got no reservation taking this one. Why not? They've been good to us this year. And like we just said, this to me doesn't feel like the spot they let us down. I think it's next week that we see Detroit kind of wavering.

All right. Well, then guess what? It's time, Simon, for our big balls, bed of the week. Presented by Tommy John, if you've got the balls. Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. I pulled back a little bit. Yeah. I didn't want to. Thank God. We still got another half the show to do. I didn't want to blow it out. Yeah. All right. We're talking about the. Jacksonville Jaguars, look, the Jaguars were at, four and a half, got down to four. It's still at four at three, six, five, but it's three and a half in a lot of places. We were tempted by Green Bay, and you got a rare Sunday night sharp call saying we were on the

wrong side. I don't think that has ever happened, Ray and Man, you can tell me if I'm wrong. Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, guys love talking shit, so. But no professional has ever called you to wave you off after. Multiple, though. That was the more surprising part. It was a bunch of guys, right?

That was what crazy? So what gives here? A lot. I think we talked about matchup-wise. This isn't that bad of a matcher for the Jaguars. Same thing with that Rams matchup against the Rams. Like surprisingly good matchup for two teams that people perceive as bad and that have had struggles this season.

And both those teams have suffered from just bad luck. And, you know, a couple things then bounce these teams ways. And I think the same thing goes with the Jaguars here. I talked about Tank Biggsby, I think it's a big deal. This is a guy who can just take it up the middle and, you know, just thump guys. He's like Marshaun Lynch type. And that's a weakness for Green Bay. Like you can run the ball on this team.

And Green Bay, this season has been very dependent defensively on turnovers. And I know we have a guy walking in here in Trevor Lawrence who does turn the ball over. But this year, if you go back and look, he's also had some really bad turnover luck that is regressed and should keep on regressing. So I just like this matchup for them. And Green Baywise, you know, I know we can get into the whole thing with the Florida heat, them going down there and then obviously another look ahead spot for them where they're playing Detroit next week. A lot to like about this matchup.

And then there was a couple of trends I thought was interesting from Evan about it's not that big of a deal skipping the by week coming back from England surprisingly. Like teams actually aren't that bad in those type of scenarios. So we talked about, though, the line to me should have been three and a half. We're about to hit that breaking point, right? Of it flipping to being value on Green Bay. So it's going to be unfortunate if it is three and a half in our contest. And that's what we get for always waiting to pick on Thursday.

Because I got cold six and a half on Tuesday in our contest. And I got the Jaguars four and a half. So we try to be honorable and wait here to put our picks in. And it looks like we're going to miss the line value on two of these games. So I'm hoping it's still four and a half. I hope people out there listening can still get the four because that's what I'd best. I have not touched anything, Jack's three and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just try to get the four.

The four is such a key number. I can't tell any times I've been saved by a push when it lands right on four. Yeah, it's definitely going to be at three and a half in the contest. I've checked. I've checked. So it's going to be a tough call for us. I'm not loving the Jags at three and a half. I feel like we're, and we talk about this all the time.

Don't let it scare you off, Chad. Well, how much does the line? matter in the contest. Like, it isn't that often. Right. But in a year in which the final point totals have been so close. Right. The variance, the percentage value of that half point just becomes that much bigger.

So I'm not loving the idea of having the Jags at three and a half. I wouldn't worry about that because when we talked about it, so far this season, I think we've had three games that were decided at two and a half where the hook did matter on the two and a half and then we've had two games that decided by the six and a half so we got the five and a half for the six and a half we either covered or we missed so I talked since you know two years ago I just don't think three is as important as it used to be so I wouldn't let it totally throw me off like I could still see us getting the three and a half in there I'm just talking strictly people

putting real money down here it's like get get the four Like that's long term. That's how you protect against that type of bullshit. This is a luck game. You mentioned luck. Is it? Yeah, it's the biggest luck game of the week favoring the Jags. For a reminder, we do the luck rankings.

Generally, 60% against the spread when there is a huge gap in luck. Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, Billy Ward, our analytics team, put this formula together. It separates the signals from the noise and can predict. regression when teams are likely to have more luck going their way and the bad luck not going their way or going against them anymore. The Packers are a great example of that. And you just mentioned it. They've been feasting on turnovers. But if you look at their underlying metrics and you've said this all year, their overall defense isn't that good. Like amongst the worst in the league in early down success rate. So the matchup, the way the line is moving is,

indicative of the underlying stats and expectations of some bad luck not going against the Jags anymore. So that's why it's their big balls. Big balls. Before the past two weeks, I would just tell the public this is like the definition of a trap, but they've just been stepping in a bunch of traps and they're not getting caught. So they're the ones laughing, but this is like everything I think of and you as well, like you're about to step in it. You think you got a good number? oh, they're giving even better number now at three and a half. Usually this is a weary sign where, you know, 90% of the bets, 90% of the money are coming on Green Bay and it's now moved through one key number.

That's a big deal. Simon, our sponsor, Tommy John, as bad as my voice sounds right now, I'm still super comfortable because I'm wearing Tommy Johns. That's not even a joke. It's a true story. It's the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. They've changed my life. when you're truly comfortable, you can bet better.

If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John. Get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. All right. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

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Indy at Houston, this was my exact decision. I bet it at six and a half. You better at six and a half. Sharp, sharp. It was, yeah, totally sharp. I'm sharp. It was my exact decision when it was at six, it's now down to, five, there are places where it's going to four and a half.

I don't like it as much now, given how much come down. I do still like the matchup. I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and how bad his completion percentages, and it is historically bad. He's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice, right? Yep. If we are looking back to what we talked about on Tuesday,

where we have been making sort of blind bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks, regardless of the coaching skill, all that. This actually fits the framework of what we like in a big underdog. We think we're getting value on the number, but they've got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit, which is their offensive line, which is the best run blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really good. play caller gets his top weapon back for his best unit.

So, like, I know Anthony Richardson, like, his comps are historically, Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, Jamarcus Russell. Like, that's the accuracy comp. Still like the cults. Yeah, and I always try not to be too hard on the kid because it's his ninth game in the pros. And, you know, we talked coming into it, he played 17 games total in his career. And it was just, you know, we were joking before the show about Bo Nix.

The guy played, you know, feels like six years in college. I think in 2018, he was the SEC rookie or whatever was of the year, freshman of the year. And it's like, Richardson didn't have that, right? He just has not had the reps. And you've seen Bo Nix, even Jane Daniels, a guy who played, I feel like four years in college. Like, it's a big deal.

Like that kind of getting all this type of reps. So me and you know the deal with Richardson here. Like, we are going to be screaming his name. when it's third and three and he sails the ball over a wide open guy in the flat. Like that's the brutal part with him this season. You know, but we always talk about the math and the numbers

and this number was too high. I still think it's too high, so I wouldn't be terrified putting the contest. But again, it'd be nice to get the five and a half over the four and a half, but it's not that big of a deal for us, right? We're just as happy to get it in. But how do you not like this game for an upset?

Like this is just a Houston team that I think the public starting to realize a little bit that they're not that great. There are some holes of this team. And we've seen that since last year, defense has been playing CJ differently, right? It's not as been as easy as it was for the previous season for him offensively. And we talked the loss of Nico Collins to me in this matchup is the biggest deal.

This guy has destroyed the Scultz team the past two years when he plays against them. And even in those games, they were always close with Nico Collins. Now he's gone. And we're getting Jonathan Taylor back, which I think is such a huge deal against another weakness for Houston. Like a lot of these teams we talk about, they can be run on. So I'm with you, Chad. Like I, you know I feel about this.

I love the Colts. Not only to cover this game, but pull the upset off and win. So I haven't wavered, but I'm like you. It's like, man, we had six and a half in the contest, that would look so, so nice. So it is tough that the pros have just bet this down. Yeah, it's interesting. You know, I log my bets in the app.

And I like to check in the morning just as like a perverse, you know, makes me feel better to see how much better. Yeah, did I get the best of the number? And like the Colts plus six and a half is the first bet that's listed. And I keep seeing it go down. I'm like, I feel so good.

Even though it means nothing. Like, it. Well, it means people should be listening to a Sunday night show, right, brother? Exactly. That's what it means. Like, I see the bears plus one and a half. I'm like, oh my God, are you fucking kidding me?

That one was my favorite this week. Getting that at a plus one and a half. Jesus. It wasn't just up for a minute or two. It was up. I was betting it still won the morning. So it didn't flip until the next morning on Monday. So that was another great one.

Maybe you flipped it. Maybe. But one trend we have been able to count on. Home Division faves 45.7% against a spread since 2015. So another, that one like, we're bringing the trends in in the right way. They're complimenting. They're not driving. Baltimore, Cleveland.

Like, I threw this in because it's a big home dog. And we don't have any metrics right now telling us to back them. But I do wonder, are we going to get a dead cat bounce here? The Ravens are way overvalued. Coming off of a short week, Marlon Humphrey injured. Zay Flowers injured. They'll play. But the Brown's getting healthier, especially in the defensive backfield.

talk about selling high like the one question is did we miss the best of the number because we didn't get it at 10 but Lamar is a favorite of more than three has been terrible. Yep. So like I don't I don't hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did bet it at nine and a half. I didn't bet it at 10. Yeah, it's the key moving. Like that's what's tough. I bet this at 11, 11.

And a half. That's how high it got. And now it's all the way down to a lot of books. I'm seeing eight and a half now, Chad. So I like it, but this is exactly what you've talked about, brother. We're literally betting a bad team with a bad backup quarterback against arguably the best team of football right now. I hate myself. I hate myself.

Obviously, I like the Browns, but you just said we're 1 in this exact spot, the bouts, the bouts are not going on our way. So I think we should take the Browns. Obviously, it's a good number. And, you know, you mentioned all the injuries. The biggest one to me is we talked about why we want to fade. this Ravens team is a big favorite. The back door is always gonna be open. I mean, they just, I can't get over how bad their DC is.

Like, their defense should not be that big of a drop-off from last season. It just shows how important coaching is, right? Like, it's night and day. The Ravens defense, one of the best defenses in football last year. And now this year, I mean, they're giving up the most points in football, which is crazy when you have teams

like Carolina Panthers out there. So yeah, it's such a big number, chat. It's, if me and you talk ourselves, to bend it Sunday morning put in our contest. People do not be shocked, but I am so sorry ahead of time because this is exactly the exact game we talked about avoiding because we've just been burned by it.

You're so right. I hate myself for not even recognizing this. I spent the first 10 hours. That's what I mean. You shouldn't hate yourself. I've made a lot of money. I live a good life betting these type of game. So it's like it's going to come back around. The first 10 hours of my week

on Monday identifying and pinpointing on a problem because I'd like us to be thoughtful and I'd like us to improve and I would like us to just be good at this and be intellectually honest about what's going right and what's going wrong

and not just blindly bet the games we've always historically bet because we're supposed to do it and then I fall into the freaking trap falling to a freaking trap. Yeah. God, I hate myself. You know what I don't hate?

I don't hate taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You hate it. Yeah. I think you. you think I'm walking into a trap. No, no. Honestly, this game's a coin flip to me. To me, it's two teams that whoever wins this, I'd be like, okay, they don't suck. Because right now, my perspective of this team is that I don't think either of these teams are that good.

And they've been fortunate to play bad teams this season. And they beat up on bad teams, right? Both these teams have. And in my mind, obviously the Eagles are way more talented. You know, this Bengals team, defensively, they're horrible. Like if Seriani's true to his word and the Eagles commit to the run and they don't get down seven nothing and all of a sudden have Jalen Hurts just dropping back the rest of the game throwing the ball 50 times. I do think they'll cover this number and keep this close, especially at two and a half. But my thing is, Chad, if this got down at one and a half, I could take, I'll take Bengals within a contest.

If this is one and a half in contest, I'll take that because that's a good number. And this Eagles team, we talk all the time. Hertz as an underdog, especially on the road, he is just not good statistically. Like he does not win these type of games and you know Eagles defense might be starting two rookies against Joe Burrell in this passing offense Isn't that a huge bonus for this Bengals team like if if bro is going to carve up anyone this should be the type of team he'd carve up a young inexperienced team when he has two veteran wide receivers So I know we're coming from this bangles team. It's just my fear is this Bengals team is just a bad team like I get it you beat up on the giants the panthers and you know great but Now you're going to play a team that we perceive to be a legit playoff team. The ego should step up here and beat this team.

So that's just my hesitation here. Let me see if I can convince you because I actually, I might like this game as much as I like the Bears at plus one and a half. Wow. Like I've got the better quarterback, a really good kicker who drops bombs at less than a field goal. Joe Burrow, thanks to Evan. I know that Joe Burrow is 22, 6, and 1 when facing a team that just covered the Eagles. Overall, 63% against the spread in his career. 70% against the spread against teams that are over 500.

We've seen the public come in on the Eagles and this line has moved to two and a half. Plus, and I think this is big, we don't know the status of Dallas Goddard. He might not play because of a hamstring injury. Didn't practice yesterday. Jordan Mayelotta out. So that's terrible. I listened to Raybon and Stuckey on the Sunday six-pack this morning,

the Action Network podcast. Raybaud made the point that Fred Johnson, Jordan Milata's backup, allows a pressure rate of 22%. the average for left tackles, 6%. Like, and he's going to be going against Trey Hendrickson. Yeah, they'll have something counter to that, though.

They're no dummies. But I agree with you. It's not ideal, but I felt the same thing last week. Why didn't want to take the Eagles? It was like, I guess who has a way better D-Ly than the Cincinnati team, the Giants? And it was neutered because they could run the ball, and that's the key here.

That's what, I'm telling you, the key of this game is, if Saquan dominates this game, the Eagles are run away with it. This Bengals defense is that bad. But on the flip side, you just said, all those Joe Brough's spats are terrifying. Like, Joe should beat up on this team. But the problem is, we don't know where again week to week from Joe Bro, Chad. I mean, that's what this risk injury has been this season.

Some weeks, it looks like old Joe, he's throwing for 300 yards, you know, four touchdowns in a game. And then you have a follow-up week where he can't complete third-down passes, right? He just struggles because he has no control over the ball because he can't feel the ball. Like, apparently that's the issue with the grip on the ball with his wrist. So, you know, that's the pushback for me. But once again, Chad, if this is one and a half on Sunday, you're feeling good about it. I'll bet that number as well. I could be bullied and taken Cincinnati here because I do think it's all about the number in this matchup.

Like, you're right. The kicker is a big deal in this game. In the NBA, there's bully ball. On the favorites, there's bully bets. Buffalo and Seattle. I like, I don't, you mentioned it. I'm fine if we pass it. Yeah, let's pass it.

Okay. I don't know what to do with it either. I just know the professionals like, they like the bills and they like the bills of minus three. So if you want to take the bills of the pros, make sure you get the three before it goes with three and a half. The one thing I would say is then that to me says the professionals don't think Seattle is a very good team.

Yep. Because the bills are bullies. They beat up on the bad teams and then they get beat by the good teams. The good teams, the one outlier is the Jets, who probably are a good team. but they're poorly coached, bad attitude, make dumb mistakes. It was a game that builds.

And Josh Allen just, you know, he doesn't match up all against that defense. And that historically has been no case for him the last couple of years. But we already talked about Josh Allen's in God mode. No turnover is 15 touchdown. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

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I'm skipping Chargers Saints. think that'll ever make the contest with Chargers minus seven, which is the number I think you lean to. I don't have an opinion on it. Yeah, I'm on the Chargers, but that's fun. We can keep it moving. Because I think there's other games we know we're going to want to put in. Right. Chicago minus two and a half, so let's talk about it. Hungry Bears are Violent Bears. Jaden Daniels did not practice on Wednesday. We both bet the Bears at one and a half, even with the injury to Jaden Daniels. I don't love we're betting against the line flip.

42% betting against the line flip since 2019. But Caleb Williams has been doing special things, undefeated in the second half this year against the spread. Only other person is Patrick Mahomes. How bad? How bad will Washington be with Marcus Marriota? Like, you pointed it out on Tuesday, how terrible he is. They've had 12 punts this season.

the fewest since 1950. They've been perfect on fourth downs and nearly 50% on third downs. All of that changes without Jaden Daniel. So to me, I'm fine betting the Bears because I think we have to think about this not as a line flip, but as a new line with the Bears

is less than a field goal. Yeah, and the bookmakers are just like me where it's seven points of value from Jane Daniels to Marcus Marriota. So like the line flip to me makes total sense. They need to make that flip because anyone who has a model is going to see that this is just an offline. So sure, me and you might get caught. Maybe we're stepping into here back in this Bears team.

Are we in the Foxhole? Are we in the Foxhole with the Bears? I'd love to be in the Foxhole and the Bears. That'd be really nice. I would love to be in a Foxhole with you and the Bears. Let's go. That would be my dream Foxhole. Me, you, and the Chicago freaking Bears.

we are in the Foxhole. You know me regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Just match-up-wise we've talked about. I love the way this defense can match up

against the Washington on offense. We know Washington was going to have a bunch of regression coming up, right? Their third down completion rate, it's impossible to sustain that. Being nine for nine on fourth downs, you just can't sustain that type of consistency for the whole season.

with a young, inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Daniels. Now, you say, well, Marriott's coming. That should be different. I really do think Jane DeLons is that much better than Marcus Marriota. That's why I'm so willing to say the line moves so much.

It's just night and day. That's not going out on a limb. It's not, but people professionally wise think it is where it's like they think Mariote can do a lot of the same stuff that he does, which is, you know, being a mobile quarterback. And I think that there's more to Jay and Daniels game right now

than Marcus Marius. So my view of this is just, Bears are smart, their coaching staff smart enough, they'll just stack the box and they'll force Marriott to pass the ball, right? The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler. Like you stop the run game, force Mario to pass, especially on third and eighths. Like that's, me and Chatt are going to make our money on third and eights against Marriota.

Like that's where we want to be, where he's got to pass the ball over 10 yards, and we're going to get either stupid pass or a tip pass, get some turnovers here with this bear secondary. That's been so good this season. And offensively, bears, I can't find the weakness in the matchup for them against this Washington team. Like Washington this year has been lucky that they've been up in so many leads because it's easy for them to pin their ears back and just rush the passer, right?

And that will not be the case here. I think the bears will be able to keep them off-bound, especially if this game's close. And the fact that it's still under three is the key to me. Like I just like that number a lot at two and a half. So yeah, people can tell, listen to this. This is one of my favorite chalkier sides of the week is this Bears matchup, especially coming off the bye week. I've been trying to figure out which chalky game,

which public game we're going to put in. I'm surprised that you are like this so much more than back in Joe Burrow. It's strange to me. One of those games is not going to make it into our final five. This is Joe Burrow in 2022. This is Joe Burrow in 2024.

The guy's the different quarterback. What I'm saying is one of these games will not make it into our final five. And on Sunday night, it will be a fascinating conversation. Fascinating. Matt Mitchell, do not let us forget to talk about the Bengals or the Bears on Sunday night. All right. Kansas City at Las Vegas plus nine and a half, the Raiders.

The autumn win is a raider. Pillaging just for fun. The games come down from 10. Look, Tuesday morning, we had three double-digit favorites. Now we're down to one. The Browns have come down. The Raiders have come down. We bet the Raiders. We bet him at plus 10. This is a massive pros Joe's split. We're doing this, Simon, in spite of the fact, even though Mahomes is only 48% against the spread as a favorite of more than three, nine, six and two the past two seasons. In spite of the fact, public road faves 61% against the spread the past two years. And don't forget 16 and two since it started

week five. In spite of the fact, home division dogs, three nine and one this year, 38% since the start of 23. Only 51% since 2020. None of those are good. Road teams, 61% against the spread this season. One in 16, we are in this exact spot this season. and in spite of the fact, the Chiefs just eliminated their biggest issue, which was getting a dependable receiver. In spite of the fact, Mahomes 11-7-1 against a spread against divisional opponents.

Like, I know this is one of our big dog plays. I like Cleveland more than I like the Raiders. That's fair. My eyes, it's the exact same. The same was last week with the Browns and the Giants. There's no difference to me. We're just playing the numbers here in the scenario and the situation. And just like those games, like last week, this week,

I like both matchups for these big ugly dogs. I like the matchup for the Raiders, not just defensively, all offensively. But I get to hesitation chat. We're back in a Raiders team that, you know, you said it last week. It was historical. No team has ever turned the ball over, whatever it was, four times. And just had all these awful things happen. They still cover the number just because of it.

their coach, kick their random field goal. So I get where you're coming from. This Raiders team, it's not for the fan of heart. And I get why we might end up pass on this one, just because it was 10 and a half in the contest, key number, now it's down to nine and a half in contest, which is a big deal to me. Like if we're not gonna get the best of the number,

especially with a dog shit team like this Raiders team, it's like, okay, I could be bullied off of it, but you being scared of Hopkins is one of the funnier things that's happened this week. You acting like, oh, I got a bad number. This number's gonna go up now, because Hopkins joined the team. It's like, in what world does Chad think Hopkins is moving this by even half a point?

I don't think it's moving it by half a point. You're acting like you got a bad number at 10 as if it was going to keep going up. And it's like, it's like, it's going to go down. I bet the number at 10. I'm glad I got it at 10. I'm thinking we got a bad number at 9 and a half or lower for the contest because you say we bet this number. But betting this number has not worked for us.

And betting this number for the past two years has been a. bad number. So it's not an automatic at less than 10 for me to say, yes, this has to be in the contest. And when you think about the Browns, like at least the Browns have a dominant defensive end. They have an all-pro cornerback in Denzo Ward. They have like an offensive line that is getting healthier. They have a better coach than the Raiders have. So those are the factors that to me are making me lean browns more than Raiders. No, I get it. You're a great salesman.

But at the end of the day, both these teams are bad. They're both playing with what we presume to be backup quarterbacks. And it's just there is truly to me no difference. It's just, I just bet the numbers. Chad's scared of it, but it's like, this is what I do. So it's like, yeah, the losses suck. But I still look at it that it's just been bad luck and bad bounces. So it's like I try not to have to react to it too much.

Yeah, if you don't want to put this rating, is winning. You'd rather take the Browns. I like the Browns as well. So it's like I'm not going to fight you off that one. My whole point of the best of the number is saying that 10 and a half is a big deal and that we're not getting 10.5 is the reason why I wouldn't put the Raiders in now. But would I still bet them at 9 and a half? Yeah, I still would take them a nine and a half. It's just not as confident as I was as I was on Tuesday. I love when you patronize me during the show. Well, just because sometimes you say things, I'm just like, this guy is out of his mind. This guy is out of his mind.

All right. Let's get to a game. that we agree with. Dallas at San Francisco. We like Dallas at plus four. It was at five and a half on Sunday. It was four and a half when you made it, Simon says. This is a true Joe pro split. Cowboys off a buy from a sort of atmosphere point of view.

Couldn't be worse for them right now. Not only was Jerry Jones a couple weeks ago trying to, to threaten Cowboys Broadcasters because they were asking him hard questions. This week, he's calling out Mike McCarthy's play calling. A coach, he could have fired after they were blown out at home in the playoffs, but decided to keep.

A coach who he didn't support by signing anybody of any value in the off season, we're still backing him. Because San Francisco, I don't know who they're putting on the field. And so we like the Cowboys. Yeah, and we know the numbers on DAC. Dack has struggled as a dog, but luckily, I haven't had some great stuff in there about McCarthy off of Bioweak.

And same with Dak on extended rest. They've actually performed really well when they have extra time to prepare for these teams. And, you know, we all know the stats, right? This 49th thing without, you know, Debo and without Ayuk and without Christian McCaffrey. Like, we just, we talked about it, right? They're going to struggle in the red zone. That to me will be the difference in this game. That's why this spread feels too big.

That's why I think the Cowboys would keep it close because say what you want about Dak, he gets them down there. He's for the most part, he'll finish a lot of these drives. And a lot of their losses kind of become because of their defense, right? Not better to get stops.

Here, I think the battle to get stops. Like, as banged up as they are defensively, you can't tell me the 49ers are going to be okay offensively. Like the injuries have to catch up to them. We've seen they have, right? They're three and four at this point. So it just feels like a number. another spot that I'm going to take the dog.

I'm going to take the dog to win outright. Like I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So once again, a number that I'm hoping we get four and a half in contest. If it is three and a half, I don't mind it. That's what I think the number should be. I still think there's value there. So this is a classic case of, man, this team makes you a scary to bet on this Cowboys team because they've been so bad this year.

But we just have to trust the number and trust this spot, right, Chad? I do. I trust this number. I trust the quarterback. I am worried about the Niners and their injuries. Raybon had a great stat on the show that he did this morning. Per Raybon, a third of Purrty's targets, yards, and touchdowns were with Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Ayyuk.

If you don't have Debo, that number goes up to 50%. So at some point, you're right. it just catches up with you. If you've got none of your weapons. And Kittle was banged up. So we'll be on the Cowboys. Cowboys will be in the contest. I think we got a really interesting list going here between the Cowboys.

I'm just glad we have a couple of favorites we like because that's been our Achilles Hill this season to me. Like, so it's good. We have some favorites. We're going to force them. We like the Bears. We like the Lions.

We slash I like CINC, but we also like Dallas. We also like Indy. We also like Jacksonville. We like Cleveland. We like the Raiders. It's going to be fun. It's going to be fun. Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart of the lone star state is a galaxy of extraordinary football players.

They are the Dallas Cowboys. Each week, we give out a two-team money line underdog parlay bet three, six-five, boosts the odds and highlights it on their site. weekend under both game pages. Remember, both games are eligible for the Bet365 early payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win if that team takes a 17 point lead, even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at Bet365. The boosted parlay, no surprise if you've been listening, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, go to those game pages at Bet365. have to find the boosted parlay go to the colts go to the cowboys you'll find the boost. All right Simon our money line underdog round robin.

We'll come a payday hallelujah what a payday there will come a payday someday someday there will come a payday hallelujah what a payday there will come a payday someday I have some ideas You ready? Yes, sir. Well, I'm not putting the Panthers on there. I'll tell you right now. No. But I did put the Patriots.

I put the Browns. I like the Browns. I don't like the Patriots. All right. I put the Colts. Love it. I put the Cowboys. Love it.

Jaguars. Interesting. Okay. Jags. Raiders. Raiders. Okay. No.

I was going to say for the last one, Should we go with the bucks? No, I had Raiders, actually. You did? Yeah. I love the payout. If that and the Browns hit, that alone would cover the Round Robin. So I do love the payout.

All right, so let's do the Raiders. Okay. Raiders, Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Jags, are our Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. Before we get to Simon's biggest bets, get excited. we're releasing a very short bonus episode of the podcast. Saturday morning, we sat down with comedian, producer, writer, gambler, popular New York sports fan, Kid Mero. It was a riot. Simon and I didn't want it to end.

It's true. Be sure to check it out. We promise you'll like it. Simon, give me your biggest bets. Sure. Cowboys, as people know, love them, bears. People know, love it. I was the Colts, but now this number's moved so much.

I wouldn't chase it as much as I was. This was going to be one of my bigger ones. Now that it's down below six, I still like it. It's just not going to be one of my biggest bets. Still love Jaguars a plus four. If that number stays there, going into Sunday, no doubt about it. And then the final one, of course, the Los Angeles Rams. Wow.

All right. So a lot of people be listening to this after the Thursday night game, but that's big. Scooch, Roulette, you're five and two. have a commanding three-game lead. Who's your Scoot Roulette? When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Scooch Roulette. Man, I have so many games I love.

You know what? I'm trying to just get it over with. Get the 6 and 2 tonight. Give me the Rams plus 3. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals. You fool. That's your Scoutrelet pick, Chad. Come on.

Oh, before we move on to my guy, Evan, people Sunday morning me and Chad do a show on YouTube or in the action app called Convince Me just like this show it's free this season I think last week I went I went 3 and 0 my bonus bet it so I was 4 and 0 I'm 14 and 7 on the season so 67% for the season on my picks all free go so else else is 67% for the season Chris Raybon so you have two guys on the same show we're giving out free winners every Sunday wake up, launch our fucking show and make money. I cannot believe our numbers aren't even bigger than this show.

It's just free money in Sunday morning. What are you people doing? So yeah, we've been really hot. It's been really fun. Check us out Sunday morning. Convince me. All the stuff, none of the fluff, the only pregame show. It focuses on the good stuff.

All right. It's time to bring in our director of research. Evan Abrams. Make us feel good, buddy. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. Yeah, I wanted to take over for you multiple times during this show, Chad. I feel bad, but we're going to get there for you.

Let me tell you something. It doesn't hurt at all. That's good to know. It just hurts the listeners. It makes us feel better, at least on this. All right, so our Betlabs database here at the Action Network goes back to 2003 in the NFL. So my trivia question at the moment is, who is the most profitable coach against the spread on extended rest?

Good for you guys. It is Mike McCarthy, 25, 18, and 3 with the Packers. even better with Dallas, 13 and 5 against the spread with Dallas. When he's an underdog and extended rest, 14, 6, and 1. So I can understand why you guys are interested in that Dallas, San Francisco spot. Talking about your bears for a second, this is just going to be plain and simple. And I think I've actually used this one on this show before. But teams off a buy versus a team not.

Just plain and simple. And this number is pretty short still is 56.1% straight up since that 2003 number. That's over 600 game sample size. If the team off the buy is above 500, 35 and 15 straight up 70% since 2020. So pretty decent spot for those bears. Now, you had mentioned the Colts, and I know that number's gotten a little out of whack

in terms of the number we would bet it at, but it's worth noting Nico Collins and his importance to this Houston offense. So Texans are 5 and 12 straight up in games. He either doesn't play or has one target or fewer. And then you look inside the numbers, in weeks one through five, Nico led the NFL in receiving yards by over 100, and his first read designed target mark of 36 was tied for six most at that point in the NFL.

So Stroud was looking to him almost all the time. Now, talk about Stroud for a half second here. Weeks one through five, he was 14th in EPA per play and 15th in completion percentage over-expected. Last two weeks, that's down to 26th in EPA per play and 24th CPOE. So just a different quarterback without his target there. Now, finally, I will go to the Cleveland Browns. Truly a bad low, sell high spot here. Deshaun Watson's injury, kind of hard to overstate how bad he was.

So his passing success rate was 33.3% through seven games. That was the 16th worst mark of any QB in the last 30 years. Of those 16 quarterbacks, his 8.4 yards gain per completion, was tied for the worst. with Bobby Hoyne of the Eagles in 1998. That was just the level of quarterback play Cleveland was going through. And also, to no surprise, Cleveland became the fourth team since 2000 to start their first seven games without scoring 20 points. Chad, college football and NFL, Cleveland is still the only team not to score 20 points

in a game this year. So it just, the offense was unreal. That is mind-boggling. Mind-boggling. UCLA was on that list before they did it like a week or so ago. here comes James Winston. You went into the medical tent at one point, came back out. Where was the pain, James?

Yeah, just pain. It was pain everywhere. So we got to keep on pushing through and being resilient. And all you know about James is going to chuck it downfield. Since 2022, his A-dot average depth of target is 11.6, second of 78 qualifying quarterbacks. Deshawns was 7.8. That's a difference of four yards downfield that James is going to chuck the ball. And yes, there's one note on Baltimore before I get out of here.

They've won four straight, scoring 30 plus in each. Teams on those streaks, just 43% ATS last 20 years. It's a tough spot, but it's the right one. So Ravens by 30, I guess. I don't know. Yeah, but Evan, that same trend, 30 plus four straight wins, applies to the Detroit Lions. One in one.

It'll be fine. I like your spirit, buddy. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick you here, unpack what we're. and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.

Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the Fourth. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey. or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw,

unfilts of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Game. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.