The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 9

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

Gamblers all over the country are getting their bets down as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with their favorite plays across the NFL Week 9 slate. Together they discuss a gross matchup against the Carolina Panthers, give some praise to the Green Bay Packers, provide their weekly boosted underdog moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs. It's all fun and games as they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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get your podcast welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet 365 we are part of the volume podcast network i am chad milman of the action network i am live from my time and john home studio and i'm joined as always by my co-co-host my companion my compadre my bf professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Happy Halloween, Chad. I should mention to people who are listening. Simon is not going to sound like this the whole time.

Simon is wearing a scream mask in honor of Halloween. I'm so scared. I don't know if I'm more scared of the decisions we have to make today, what our big balls bed of the week is going to be, what our foxhole is going to be, that I stayed up so late watching the Dodgers. Yankees last night, that I was live betting the Bulls when they were 20 down and won my bet because I have so much confidence in this team. Today is our NFL week nine best bets episode.

Simon and I will narrow down our five picks in the favorites $100,000 pro football. Pickham contest presented by Bet365. Sign up now, favorites.com.com. We'll get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John, big balls, bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets. We're going to discuss our boosted money line underdog parlay, which you can get at Bet365. We'll talk about the underdog round robin and so much more. Betts are rolling in, lines are moving, decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss. Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.

As a reminder of the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers, get $200 in bonus bets when you bet. $25. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365. Most be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky.

gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. As always, on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines move based on our conversations and the pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you do it? Yeah, let's start for a game that me and Chad probably aren't going to talk about today, so we'll just go out of the way. People know the professionals love the Jets. I don't get it. Chad doesn't get it. Apparently the trends do point to it, though. After reading Evans article, it's like, okay, I can see why they like this spot.

There are some nice spots here to take this Jets team historically. This is a good spot to take them. I just don't think we've ever think we've seen something like this historically with this team. And I know that their record doesn't reflect who they are because of how bad their kicker has been. And they look like they listened to us last week, chat, or on a shit say on Tuesday. They got rid of their kicker finally. I think it's a little too late. I know Houston has a ton of injuries.

This got up to two and a half at one point. I don't know if you saw Houston get up two and a half. I had to take a piece of it once you got up two and a half. Now it's back down to one and a half. So you want to bet with the professionals tonight? They're not always right. but they do like the Jets but I am going to go against them on the Houston side. All right, let's get to the other games that actually matter.

Off the top, me and Chad talked about Tuesday, both liked it. We weren't really sure what to do with it though, just because the number had moved so much. You know, it's now down to one and a half for Cleveland. I don't know where you're at with this Cleveland team. I get why these guys are coming from. My whole pushback to them was you guys are all talking as if you're not the ones that got this at three and two and a half. Now me and Chad are coming in for the scraps at one and a half if we like the Browns. That was my only pushback.

I get why the professionals love the Browns here. They love the number. They think they're going to win outright. Totally get it. Their season's turned around. Chad, we'll go in, I guess, more. But you nailed it when you just said it's the Winston effect. That's my hesitation here.

Another game, me and you both love the professionals are against us on Miami Dolphins. But, yeah, I know. There's some strong dolphin money coming in. I just think they're betting or wrong, Chad. I just think they're betting it wrong. I really do. So I haven't changed my position on that. Still like the bills.

Still think that's a good spot for us. But shocked to find out that a lot of professionals like that other side. For games, we love that the pros love. Green Bay, no-brainer. That's when we'll dive way more into. Professionals love that. I still think it's going to be down to three. A couple of books have already gone to three.

Get to three and a half while you still can. I just think professional money, one short of love is giving the all, good, good to go today or tomorrow. This line will drop to three. Again, we haven't talked much about that maybe we will more today. Giants, the professionals actually liked Washington. It's a little split. It's not as clear cut as I thought I was going to be. It's interesting. Yeah, I think it's something we talked about where this Giants team is just very, it's just bad. We've talked this year, though, these bad teams and how bad they are. Daniel Jones doesn't

throw a touchdown at home. It is week nine. So I'm glad to hear this. We're going to, let's get to the next one. We're going to get into that more. Because the more research I did, the less I liked your opinion about the Giants. I know I'm a sucker. I love the Giants. Again, we both like.

I don't think we're going to put in our contest though, Tampa. I've heard some really smart groups of coming on Tampa. To me, that's a bet me and chat always make just because it's a huge number against the Chiefs. I don't think there's anything sharp about it, though. I can't get a good read on it. I got no interest putting this one in. Another one that maybe we'll talk a little bit about, just as, again, we're on opposite sides of it.

Professionals like the Ravens, I like Denver. Maybe you want to dive into that one more, but I think we're not missing the mark here that we're just playing the number because it's such a big number and it's that Ravens defense. Their view of it is this Ravens team is going to roll this Denver team,

that they're better, all of it. They believe in all of this Ravens hyping, especially even after reading Evan's article, There's trends say take the nine here with this Denver team. Not only Sean Payton, great is a big dog here. We talked about Lamar struggles, especially when it's above three and a half. He's just a different quarterback that usually play down to their competition levels. So, yeah, a lot to dive into, Chad.

Pretty split this week between us and the professionals. Well, that's interesting. And they touched on all the games and sort of the challenges I was having as I dug in deeper the past 48 hours, as I try to reimagine how we're framing our arguments here. Last week, week eight, public nine and six. Week before, 10 and four. Week before that, 10, 3, and 1. So after five weeks of getting crushed to the tune of the worst start in 20 years for the public,

they are now dominating the past three weeks. So, you know, we like to fade the public. It's gone okay for us in certain spots. Let's see how it rolls this week. First game up, Denver plus nine and a half at Baltimore. As I go through this, the reasons to back Denver, their defense is fierce amongst the league leaders in pressure rate, first in yards per attempt, passing, tied for fourth in yards per carry.

All great pressure points against a Lamar Jackson, who is very efficient in the pocket in a Derek Henry led run game. Baltimore, terrible. in the second half. That bodes well if you want to bet a dog at a big number. They're now giving up more than 17 points per game in the second half worst in the NFL. We know Bo Nix and the Broncos will be slinging it no matter how late in the game and what the score is. And we know, as you mentioned, Lamar is a favorite, big number, 29 and 35 in his career, 45% against the spread. I'm saying big number three or more. The reason we don't like Denver.

easy schedule Bo Nix is a wild card who can just as easily throw at least one pick six to destroy the calculus Denver's good against the Blitz Lamar is the best in the NFL against the Blitz

and there is the sentiment that the Ravens are like two or three mistakes cleaned up from figuring it out and destroying this team and like that's what I worry about They had a, like, that was a cheap backdoor cover that commanders had against the Ravens a few weeks ago.

If you didn't get, if you got the seven and a half, the Ravens won by seven because they gave up some, you know, a PI that put the commanders in field goal range. I could see that being the case here too. Like, I'm so split on this game, I do not want to put in the contest. I do not feel strongly about it. Yeah, I think it's just because of Bo and Nicks

that we're both little weary, Even though he is, what, three and no or four and oh this season, Evan? He's something, yeah, four and no. So, I mean, we can't knock it. The guy's performed really well in the road, and this team has as well. So maybe our skepticism isn't warranted, but we just, it's just a numbers thing, right? I don't get why this number is so large. And the books tend to know what they're doing when they set numbers like this.

But, man, this is a tough one to pass. And luckily we have other games we like more, but I'm, I'm gonna bet it. It's like the hot stove thing. I gotta touch you to make sure it's hot. That's how that's what I'm doing here with this this Denver team. It's like I know I know we shouldn't do it, but I kind of have to do it just because I'm so skeptical of this, the secondary for this Ravens team. And people out there, you don't need to, you don't need to take this one. You can wait and do in game best. Chad just laid it out for you how you should bet this, right? You should attack Denver in the second half. So, you know, if they're down 10 nothing at a half time or 14, three, maybe you'll get a better number and you can just take them to cover the second half like that that probably is the play for this contest though for what we do here i'm just going to take the number strip from the get go i'm going to go against the professionals here i'll take denver in this big number it's it's just to me it's too big if this was seven and a half maybe seven i could come around this raven's team the fact that it's cross seven and a half key number eight and a half key number and still at nine i'll be i'll be the joe public sucker

i'll take the nine well look the ravens in the first half has been sort of the sharp play this week. If you read anything on Action Network, if you listen to Stucky and Raybon on the Action Network podcast in their Sunday six-pack, Stucky chose the Ravens first half. A couple other stories on Action Network. They liked the Ravens First Half.

Evan probably has a ton of stats. I don't know if he'll do it in his segment later about the Ravens in first half. If not, you know, Ev, you can throw it in the chat and we'll bring them up here. But the Ravens in the first half with Harbaugh and with Lamar have really been you know,

unprecedentedly great. I think the number is probably about five if I had to guess. So Ravens in the first half might be a safer play. Not a safe play for the contest. I will tell you, normally I can make a list of like five or six games I feel good about

that we're going to put in the contest. I could not do that with this. Like I had two games. I'm like, yes, I feel great. By this morning, I maybe had three. but I didn't feel great about a lot of games. One of the games, like, I definitely started coming around to New England plus three and a half at Tennessee.

The trends back taking the paths. Do they? Teams off a blowout loss who are then favored at home only cover 42% of the time the following week the past 20 years. Interesting. Money and tickets both on the. Pats and this number hasn't budged. That worries me a little bit. Are we getting Will Levis at QB? Seems likely. Or are we getting Jacoby Brousette? Seems likely. But then there's this. And we've talked about this. A, the Titans stink. Like, they're tanking. They've traded away

every player of value. This week, it was Deonté Johnson. I'm not, I'm thinking about the Panthers. But the Titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The Titans just played the Lions. coming off a game against the Lions tend to crater the next game because it is such a physical game. We just saw it with the Vikings too. That is a hard road to travel and then be a home favorite of more than a field goal.

That feels like an opportunity for us. Yeah, we talked on Tuesday. This is a bizarre line. We knew it was going to be the public dog of the week because everyone's, you know, they're like us. They're looking at this saying, well, what in the world? What is this number?

why is it not just two and a half or three? You're going to give us the hook. If it's a trap, me and Chad will walk into it holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here? This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team is terrible. How can you not bet on the Patriots to win this game outright as well? It's just everything lines up where say what you want about this Patriots team and how bad they are.

We know how bad Bresset is. We know how bad the receivers are. I think they're leading the league in drops. They had before Jacoby-Mire, I mean, Drake Ney came in. They basically were at the 32nd in the league and passes 20 yards downfield. It's bad with the Brissette. I get it. But it's not as bad as everything that we just talked about Tennessee,

especially if it's Will Levis. This guy just makes so many dumb mistakes. And now he knows. I mean, how can you find a more desperate quarterback in this league if he starts this game, right? Like he just, he knows that he might only have one or two games left in his career. So I'm with you on it. Like I'm with you about the hesitation, though. We don't like that this number hasn't budged.

The books seem like they're setting something up here, but we could say that for every week this year, for the most part, with this Tennessee team. We already talked about, there's been a bunch of games. They were favorite at home against different teams or the number didn't look right to me and you,

and we avoided it. And that was a bad miss by us. We shouldn't have been avoiding betting against this Tennessee team. They've just been terrible all season. So I'm going to do my best, not to let us get scared off by this on Sunday if we still are getting three and a half. I think it's their defense.

I think people are looking at their defense, which has performed well, top 10 in many metrics. And I think it's sort of everyone keeps thinking, okay, their defense can do enough to stop an opposing offense. Even if you look at last week, right? They played the Lions, 52 points scored, but that's because of turnovers and special teams. Jared Goff had 85 yards passing. Like the Titans had more offensive production than the Lions did. So I think they just keep thinking, okay, every week, this team will be able to prove that they can stop somebody, but they don't play complimentary football. So every good play that the Titans make, every good series that the Titans have on defense gets given back and more in a net negative effect with what the offense does.

And so or special teams now. So I get it. I get it. It's a tough one. Like, I have it on my list of, like, Final Five. Me too. But I don't love it. And it makes me a little queasy.

It does feel a little trappy. But not Foxhole. It's not our big balls better the week. Because our Big Balls Better the Week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games. Start with Great underwear. Tommy John makes the great.

our big balls better the week. New Orleans at Carolina. This one is up to seven and a half, Simon. It was at seven, and I think it's trending to eight. It was at seven when we spoke on Tuesday. We liked it then. The Saints minus seven and a half. Look, it's oddly a pros Joe's game with the public on the Panthers

and the money on the Saints. and like the money that has moved it to seven and a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on this game to have any kind of credible formula at all. It is by far the least bet game of any NFL game according to the number of tickets tracked in the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of tickets are on the Panthers. But here we are. We live in a world in which we have to choose between the Saints and the Panthers. we've decided to cast our lot with the Saints as more than touchdown favorites

with a on the road in the division all bad trends for us. A quarterback in Derrickard who is not just one of the worst in the NFL as a favorite. He is one step up from last as a favorite against the spread in the past 20 years. He's got a coach who was amongst the worst 10 coaches against the spread in the past 20 years. but we're doing it. And I feel fine. Yeah, you left out the best part. The Saints have lost six games in a row since starting to.

I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here. You know what? Yeah. This is, you're right. We slacked about it earlier and like I couldn't, I was giving you a couple options, like for big balls and this was on the list. And you chose this one. And I'm like, yeah, this makes sense.

This one takes balls. We're finally doing it, though. I'm so happy on this show. we're finally fade in this Carolina team. For our fans, for our listeners. You know we're fucked. That's what I was about to say. This is only going to end in one way,

and it's going to be us losing the season, 1-4-5. But we have to do it. Carolina is so bad. They've totally put it on the season. On the Saints, on their hand, this feels like their everything game, right? This is where they can maybe turn around the season.

They need this win desperately. They know if you lose this and you're two and seven, you are done. But if you can get the three and six, there's an outside chance, obviously they can somehow get to a wildcard, especially if they're getting healthy at the right time. So the biggest thing to us was just, if it was their car, I was going to be on this number just because he is the difference maker to that team. We've seen offensively, they just, they run differently when he's back there, right?

They can run what they want to do, which is run the ball with play action. Like that's what really made them so great those first two weeks. Here comes a Carolina team that struggles against a lot of what the Saints want to do offensively. So I'm not going to let this huge number scare me off. this panther team is that bad that this should be that high even though it is the Saints team and about time Chad about time we faded a team that is

one in what eight or one in seven against the spread this season so better late than never is what I always say so I'm happy we're finally getting on this this fade the Carolina Panthers train I feel like this is historic for us I don't know in the history of us being brothers

and arms we've ever baited a team in this spot. We've passed, we've decided we wouldn't touch it because we didn't want to tempt the bed in gods and do something that is so chalky, but it's not this week, but in sort of historical terms, we don't want to bet against this trend of a home dog. We don't want to bet against this trend

of the home dog in the division. It's one of those times we're just looking at the matchup. We're seeing Derek Carr, who's healthy and above, excuse me, an above average quarterback when he's healthy, playing against the defense that cannot get pressure, cannot cover, gets blown out by everybody. We're believing our eyes. We got a quarterback who really is as bad as we think he is.

this is the spot. Big Ball's Bed of the Week. New Orleans Saints. Our sponsor, Tommy John, makes a bet like this comfortable because it's the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. Totally changed my life. Change my perspective on what underwear should be. And also shirts, sweatpants and pajamas.

When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you love Tommy John. Get 25% off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I went and sat on the little ottoman in front of him. Hi, Dad. And just when I said that, my mom comes out of the kitchen. She says, I have some cookies and milk. This is a badass convict. Right. just finished five years.

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on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. This next game, this is a litmus test game to me. I've changed my mind on this game. Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past 48 hours. Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I walked into the Cincinnati bear trap last week and you try to talk me out of it,

called me a fool. I didn't do it. And I got screwed. All of Atlanta's defense. has come, Oliver Lennon's offense has come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk Cousins literally, eight touchdowns, a thousand yards against the Panthers and the Bucs. Like against any defense with a decent pass rush and people who can cover, they're a mediocre team. So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent pass rush?

Probably not. Micah Parsons still is not practiced by the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy. He wasn't close to getting back on the field. Cornerback, Duran Bland, was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys would better in coverage. Are they a team that is shown they have the ability to respond to adversity?

Not really. This is a split across the board. You know, we didn't talk about it in sharp calls. Like, I wanted to bet the kids. Cowboys on Tuesday. You kind of talked me out of it. If this game gets to three, I'd probably want to bet the Cowboys. I don't feel good enough to put it in the contest for sure. No. No, I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just a bad team. You know, last week we took him because we thought they had major injuries of the 49ers and we should have adjusted, right? When Kiddle and Debo came back,

that should have been our mark to move off it. We didn't take it serious. Then what happened? Kiddle had like the game of his life, right? He dominated that game and he kind of flipped it. They lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh. Once again, I'd make that bet 10 out of 10 times, especially this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky, right? Dack drove the field on a fourth down, completed this insane pass to his third receiver to beat us. Then they beat the Giants, you know, and kind of another fluky win, and then they opened the season by beating Cleveland. So they have three wins this season, easily could have one, maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team. They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting money on them,

right now that they gotta be feeling in the locker room and there's no adjustments to make. They can't stop the run and they can't run the football. There's nothing they can do, Chad. They're dead in the water. There is no adjustments to be made in all the players. It's just we knew coming to the season it was gonna be bad for them.

I didn't know it was gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just, it's terrible. So could they steal this game, Chad? Yeah, I think you nailed it. Like whoever is the ball last, I talked about us on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't bet it either.

It's like, I did bet Atlanta, I should say, but I wouldn't make this one of our, five because it's whoever is the ball last, I could see them winning this game, right? It's Cowboys, Dak, he's that good of a quarterback, him and Cedia that connection. They could drive the field. I mean, we had an opportunity against 49ers.

They could have drove the field and God, it's that upset win. It's like that's what we're going to have every week with this Cowboys team. They play Meteoroker teams, right? And that's what this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it.

But, yeah, there's threes out there if you do want the Cowboys, Chad. I am on Atlanta, but it's one of my smaller bets. I'm having a tough time with this one just as you just because we don't really trust either of these teams right now for a bunch of different reasons. So I'm with you. I'm happy to pass on this one for the contest.

You know, you mentioned DAC and CD, like, they're not even connecting emotionally. Do you what I mean? Like, it feels like there's something missing in what is supposed to be a simpatico relationship between the quarterback and the receiver, and I know it can be tempestuous at times, but they got to be in the same page and they don't seem to be. And I do think, Dak, we talked about this on Convits Me.

Kerner talked about it, you know, referring to Dak as mall Santa and giving out under his rushing props. He had negative one rushing yard. He looks not just immobile, but statuesque back there. You could see it a few times. I think at one point Collinsworth, when he was rolling out, Chris Collinsworth said he just looks like he doesn't have it. Something weird is going on there. And now they've given these guys, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars. I'll say this, though. I mean, clearly it's just tough. It's football. I mean, everyone knows the ball is going. But last week, C.D. had 13 catches on 17 targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns.

And then the week before that, he had 14 targets, we only had seven catches. So clearly, Dak knows the deal, though. is just force feeding this guy because of what we just talked about. Like he has no other real options. So I agree with you. It hasn't worked out, but it's just, this is life when you just have two players and nothing else, right? Like there's just only so much these two guys can do. And you're right.

They're both kind of cratering to the pressure, I guess. Miami at Buffalo, Buffalo minus six. This was my exact decision. Yeah. I loved it on Sunday night when it was at six. It was bad up to six and a half. It's come down the half point. That worries me.

You mentioned on sharp calls. there's some love for Miami. Yeah. Like, Josh Allen defies the trends. You know, in the NFL historically betting against the spread, you want to bet on the underdog in the division. That's not what you do with Josh Allen. Josh Allen is over 500.

He is an ROI positive bet against the spread as a favorite in the division. And then the Tua trends, to me, outweigh what people might be believing in sort of the development of the dolphins. Tua is two in ten straight up, three, eight and one against a spread, away from home versus winning teams in his NFL career. And to me, it really becomes like, Finn's offense versus Bill's defense. Even Tua has been out, you can't really sort of vest any confidence. in those. But the bill's rush offense has been top three in the league across the majority of metrics, superficial, advanced, whatever. And the fence tackling is amongst the league's worst. So trend-wise, match-up-wise, I could see the bills. This is a place they tend to dominate.

I'm still not worried about it. Nope. This is one of my bigger bets that we've tons of money on this bill's team. I hope professionals get better in this. Give me a five and a half. half, that'd be great. Yeah. I'm right there with you. Usually I don't love these spots, but Josh Allen's different. Him and this matchup is different as well, right? We talked about two on the road.

Now it's two on the road against a team above 500, which he struggles against in his career. It doesn't matter if it was his best season of his career or his worst season's career. He always struggles in this exact spot. So, you know, maybe they'll get lucky, Chad, but we know long term, this is a winning bet. So this is a bet that we're going to make this year. We'll make next year as long as we can until Miami, change.

who they are until Josh Allen falls off the cliff and he's nowhere near that cliff right now. Like this is arguably the best we've ever had, Josh Allen, especially in betting wise. Like he's just so locked in. Even, you know, we knew his pick was coming last week. He was so due. He's had incredible luck this season. That doesn't worry me at all. He could overcome two turnovers in this matchup just because I think we're going to get opportunities with Tua.

He just does not look comfortable. He's still doing the one-two Mississippi in his head and then getting rid of the ball because just so terrified to take a hit right now. So I love it. We got a Bill's team that's playing free. Josh Allen is really embracing the whole thing of there is no superstar in this team. I can get the ball to whoever I want. And at the end of the day, no one is going to be bitching at me.

He looks a completely different guy. Like a weight is truly off his shoulders. So, yeah, Bill is at home six points or maybe even five and a half for our contest, Chad. I love this to be one of our five. Josh Allen right now, odds on favorite to win. MVP in the NFL. Who knows? Like the way this team is playing,

I'm still banking on Jared Gough, but it would end up being Josh Allen. Yeah, I'd say Chad knows, but don't get mad at Chad. Chad knows if we flipped Jared Gough and Josh Allen. We know who the better quarterback is. It's just, you know, MVP, like we always say, it's really about that one seat.

So I still think there is value on your golf back because he could easily be the one seat. in. And, you know, it's as good as the bills have been, you know, it is tough to get that one seed, but they do have the division to do it. And so that, that to me is the biggest, the biggest thing, who's going to win this MVP is going to be, who's going to be that one seat, Chad? Well, honestly, that's why I made the bet, Simon, like I just looked at, you know, gaming it out. We know it's a quarterback award. Yeah. We know it usually goes to the quarterback whose team played the best over the course of the

season in a mostly dominant way. They'll lose two guys. games at the most, maybe three, and the bills had already lost a couple games. And the bills have to overtake the chiefs who are undefeated. So to me, this just felt like, you know, if I'm handicapping, which is what this is, it's handicapping that over the course of the season, the Lions would have a better chance to win their conference than have a better record with Jared Goff. And there'd be sentiment. Like, he'd have a great year. He's overcome so much. There'd just be people who want to back I mean, sometimes this is about a story. Los Angeles Chargers, now minus one and a half at Cleveland.

You brought it up on sharp calls. Yeah. Listen, man, I've dug so deep in this one. And this is when betting gets fun. Because I do feel like people are not giving enough credit to the Chargers or they are giving James and the Browns too much credit. They are literally banking on James and this offense being so much better than it was with Deshaun and everyone getting healthier on offense and defense. So they are reevaluating and re-rating the Browns.

But I do look at the Chargers D as a comp to the Ravens, who the Browns just beat miraculously, right? The Chargers are much better in coverage, much better in passing EPA, expected points allowed, equal in sack rate, better. better against the run in the box with six or fewer defenders. They've actually started passing the ball more the past couple of weeks, which means they are putting the ball in their best players' hands, Justin Herbert, who is not a turnover machine the way James is. I don't know that there's a real edge here. It's about what we think we are seeing and we're either jumping off the wave of the Browns

or we're going to keep riding it with, James and like, are we taking a stand here that we just don't believe James won't throw the ball into coverage and turn the ball over the way he should have against the Ravens if anyone in their defensive backfield could catch the ball? Yeah, I'm a sucker. I'm going to ride it. And I'm going to do the coward move, though. Like, I probably won't put this in our contest because I'm just going to throw this in a teaser.

Give me up to seven and a half with this Cleveland team because you said a lot of nice things by the Chargers. I don't think the Chargers are a good team. I think they've just benefited from having a really easy schedule. And this is what this team does, right? We talked to horrible identity. They just, they don't beat themselves. They let these other teams make the mistakes.

And even watching that Saints game, like, you know, I don't know if it was the first quarter, or maybe into the second quarter, it was like, how is this same team even keeping this close? They have a rotating door of rookie QBs right now at quarterback, and Herbert was keeping a minute. And then eventually, like we talked about Herbert, realized, oh, I'm a top five quarterback in this league.

I can make these throws. I just need to trust my guy. And he made big time throws in that game. So I get why you want to take the chargers. They're probably the more complete team. But I can't quit this Brownstein, especially knowing how desperate they are. Just the whole mood and momentum is shifted in this locker room now that it is James.

That's why I'm like Chad talking about. I'm taking a teaser, though, just because of James. Like it's, I just can't get it over the Kyle Hamilton drop. Like that's what we're going to get. had from James in this game. So that's why I don't want to make this one of our five. But for the people out there, I am going to make this a teaser bet with this team. You know, you can pair it with the Eagles, you can pair it with the Bengals, wherever you want to throw it in the other side. But I just look at this as a nice leg to it, giving them up to seven and a half,

just because we've seen this Chargers team, right? They like to keep these games close, especially against teams that are kind of the same level as they are. And, you know, this Brown's defense at home, I know they're not the same as they were last year. They're still pretty damn good overall. And they could still get after the quarterback. back. I think that, that to me is where I'm flipped a little bit. So yeah, I guess we disagree on this one, brother. Dude, it's so hard. Like, it feels trappy to bet the Chargers as the road favorite. You're going against what the Sharps are saying. We've seen the number come down. Yeah, it's three and a half. Now it's

done a one and a half. Yeah. And so, I don't know. If it keeps going down at some point, we might have to bet the Chargers as an underdog. And I don't know. I don't mind doing that. It just, something here feels off. Like, James is not a good bet.

He's just not. How dare you? It's just like people are high on the hog. He's not a good bet as a favorite, right, Evan? He's good as an underdog, not as a favorite. Just feels like we're missing an opportunity here. We don't have a foxhole yet.

We don't have a foxhole. I'm telling you right now, Washington and New York Giants, I'm glad the wise guys sort of walk you off from there. because it was silliness. Like, I know you want to back the Giants. I was against it on Tuesday. I think they are a dreadful team.

They are a dreadful team at home. They now lost Andrew Thomas, who was the only reason to even give any hope to this team. Tyrone Tracy, who's been their best offensive weapon, he's probably not playing because of concussion. Daniel Jones can't throw a touchdown in MetLife. There's severe turmoil in that locker room with Daniel Jones, taking the heat for going after players

and Daeball not defending him. It's got the New York Post in a goddamn tizzy. Like, I don't think there's any. The wise guys are right here. You take Washington and you don't take anybody. I guess. I'm a sucker. I'm a sucker for pain.

They can't tuck me off it. I'm dug in on the Giants, but this is the game I have not made a single bet on because of what Chad has talked about. Like, I don't know what the injuries are right now. This number is only going to go up. Like, it's three and a half at a couple of books. I'm seeing four now at a couple of.

books pop up as well. So it's like, okay, when is it, when does eventually get up the four and a half? Like that's when I'll come in on the other side. But everything you said is right. This team is terrible right now. They're dysfunctional and they're just brutal at home. Like Daniel Jones at home, I don't know what it is, but he is horrible playing against teams at home. And, you know, like you said, there's just nothing to want to build off of that. Like even last week at Pittsburgh game, it was right there for them to get. get the cover and everything like that and they just don't do it they've been that way this whole season they just disappointed in so many different ways so Pittsburgh the bangles like yeah it's such a

shame they're wasting a great year from their defense and there were pretty low expectations for their defense before the season began and I feel like their defense has really been been incredible great defensive line they've been really good in coverage much better than expected it's it's a shame they can't figure it out and like I hate your charges bet I'd rather sweat the chargers and sweat the giants, which I think at the end of the day is what I'm getting to with our contest, which is like, am I going to be able to sleep at night knowing I gave out the giants in our contest to our lovely fans? I wouldn't because I just would feel terrible because they are. Especially now when we're giving out the Saints, a seven and a half

point favorite on the road. I mean, we love chalk this week. I'll be honest. So yeah, I'm cool with not taking this one in there just because I'm going to force in that Packers bet, which is not the same obviously in any way but it's like okay at least you're giving me a ugly home divisional dog that I love and doesn't need to be this one it can I'm easily going to be the Green Bay instead we're going to get to Green Bay in a second and we still owe people a foxhole and we're kind of running out of room here we'll quickly go over the the Bears like I would still back the Bears kind of you're a sucker though you were sucked in on that on Tuesday yeah I know but I've I've changed my tune a little bit like

You were with me. You recognized as dogs that they were right side, but you couldn't get yourself. No, they were favorite of the time. I said, I would just stay away from it. And then they flipped to be a dog. I'm going to get there. I'm going to give you the out. You don't want to bet them because of the fallout, which I get.

Please don't make me bet this team. And it has not been pretty. Braxton Jones, their left tackle, like Caleb Williams was running for his life after he left the game. He is probably out. He did not practice on Wednesday. His backup, who was so bad. Williams basically couldn't get a pass off. He is likely out.

So they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Montes' sweat did not practice on Wednesday either. I think he'll play. But they're also missing multiple defensive backs. The card's defense is truly terrible. But what's interesting to me is the bear's strength at full force is their ability to rush the passer and pass coverage. The card's strength offensively is Kyler.

in pure chaos. So the worse it is for him, when the defense is good and getting to him, the better he plays. All that makes me not want to bet the Bears anymore. Also, I agree with you, like, reading it this week, obsessing about it,

like, there is a lot of disappointment in the Bears locker room in how Iber Fluse not only handled the Hail Mary strategically, the lack of coaching that happened in the moment,

and how he responded to reporters after the game where I think a lot of folks felt like he threw the players under the bus and said they know what to do, they didn't do it. Like you box out, you mark a man. I think that was not taken kindly. And the fact that they gave the ball to a backup center

at the goal line instead of just running it as they should with two minutes left and fumbled it away and put them all under a much different kind. kind of strain. So to me, we're walking away from this game. I will not invest. Based off what you said, too, like I already liked the under in this matchup. It makes me like it even more now because you just said it, how are the bears going to move the ball offensively? And we've seen them struggle this year, Caleb, especially on the road this season. He's just been

different. His home and a way splits are very, very different. So that jumps out to me on the flip side too. I still think even with your guys injuries, you're a really good secondary. So I think Kyler, as good as he is in Scramble mode, they're not going to make it easy for them. I don't think they're going to have that many big plays. So, yeah, if you don't want to take a side in this one, I do like the under here of 44.5. There will not be a side in this one. We haven't done Foxhole yet. And I don't know that-I got one coming up if you want to talk about it.

All right. I do want to talk about it because in my list, I don't know that any of these would be it. We like the Rams at one and a half point. Interesting. Yeah. Wow. You are going hardcore on this team. because we liked him at one and a half.

Just because the professionals are on the other side, so I like that. I like that. We're going against the pros here in this one. So we liked it at one and a half on Sunday night. Rams is underdogs. It's flipped. We don't love betting on the team that it flipped towards. So now the Rams are the favorite.

That is a bad spot historically. True. Like the Seahawks have played terrible against the run this season. But like top 10 in total yards allowed. top 10 in yards per carry allowed, top 10 in EPA against the run. Everybody, like we know, Sean McVeigh is a run first coach. And Kyron Williams has been carrying the ball as a top five running back in the NFL. The question is, man, the road dog in this spot, 54% against the spread the past five seasons,

that's great since we've already bet the Rams at plus one and a half. you know, the home dog, 51%. So not like advantageous for Seattle in this spot. But I don't love like that we're betting against the flip. And like maybe that's, I should discount that. But dude, like I haven't heard one person say they like the Rams as favorites in this game. Like that is, if we're doing that, that is legit foxhole. It is. And I think it's, Evan had a great piece in his article about it. It's McVeigh off extended

rest. He's actually not been that good in his career. And same goes for Stafford. So I get the hesitation, right? This is to me our, even though we have a couple really public bets this week, this is the most public bet. Like the Seattle couldn't be any lower right now. They are just a bad team. And that's my biggest thing, your child, is they're a bad team. They're bad against good teams. And, you know, Gina Smith in his career, he's only three and nine. against the spread at home in Seattle. Like he's not performed well at all in Seattle. And people think it's different because my whole life,

I mean, my whole betting life, Seattle at home, especially with Russell Wilson, no brainer, easy bet, especially if they were an underdog. It's not been the same with Gino. And they're just, that whole peak care of identity is totally gone now. So I think the people need to adjust, the books need to adjust.

This line, if it was to, Chad, I probably would stay away from because you know how I obsessed with that key number. I think the value shifted back now to this ramps team. And I know we both got a plus one and a half. I got pennies down on that. Like my real big money bets that I bet on this ramps team have all come and

minus one, minus one and a half. So yeah, I just think the books haven't adjusted to Puka and Cooper Cup being back and how that's going to boost this run game in so many different ways. I mean, you saw last week, Puka blocking, he is so good because he's huge. I mean, this is a huge receiver on the outside who just can bully these small corners. So I just think both those guys. adds so much to the passing game and the rushing game. But yeah, this is definitely an island game for us,

well, this is us in the public. Like the professionals are on the other side. So to me, this is why I like making this one of the foxhole bets because it really is us jumping in against these pros here. You know what? I'm glad to hear you say this. Because I haven't seen anything to make me not like the Rams other than the trends.

I actually really like their young defense. I love the Rams as an organization. I think they draft well. I think McVeigh is a great coach. I think Les Need has done an incredible job, bringing talent and getting rid of guys at peak, you know, like the old Cowboys used to do. And I'm not afraid of it.

We're in the foxhole. We're on the Rams. We are against everybody on this. We are truly in a foxhole on this one. And this is a huge, huge, huge, wise, excuse me, it's choking me up. Huge, huge, wise guy play. All right, we're in the foxhole.

LA Rams minus one and a half. I don't want this to make us beholden to put him in the contest. That makes me a little nervous, but we're in the foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Okay. And I have other favorites I like more. I just, I really love this Rams team. And this, this to me is such a,

We're still, I feel like, getting good value on them just because the books haven't adjusted to what they are now, which is a healthier team. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

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Listen to Just Hill with Dr. Jay on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I went and sat on the little ottoman in front of him. Hi, Dad. And just when I said that, my mom comes out of the kitchen, and she says, I have some cookies and milk. This is this badass convict man.

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And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game.

We get a player's, perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night bases on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing.

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I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half. It's been getting closer and closer to three. nothing I've seen changes to meet my mind from putting use in the contest total projo split the Packers pass blocking is elite this season

so how will the lines get any pressure? I think that's still a real hole for them without Aidan Hutchinson weather could be a factor wind is in the 10 to 15 mile per hour range Jared golf has a bad ankle potentially rain

we're going to get to golf Matt LaFleur 24 and 11 as a dog, 69% in his career. We're selling peak lions. I don't mind getting off the lines. They've been so good to us. Like Jared Goff, outside in weather, he's generationally great inside.

Inside. Outside, not so much. And so this is the time. You got to go all in on the Packers here. Yeah, and just the you can say what you want, right, with Jordan Love being banged up, but we, I just talked about golf has banged up as well. He didn't practice yesterday. He's got a bad ankle. And, you know, this is the type of matchup where, yes, is it scary betting against this Detroit team for me and chat? Of course. We've just seen them just dominate everyone they've faced.

But we talk all the time. Divisional games are different. And that's when you really have to just trust the number. And, you know, they, I remember what was? Was it two, three weeks ago? They tried scaring off. We thought the Detroit number was way too easy against that Vikings team. What was it? Two and a half down to one and a half. Yeah.

Line didn't make sense. All of a sudden it came down to, you know, Minnesota had the ball. They were about to go up three with an extra going for two. And at one point it was landing right on one. And it was like, okay, either we're gonna get lucky with the cover here or we're gonna get this outright win by this Lions team. And it feels the same way here with Green Bay, where we're getting a great number with the hook on the three and a half.

And we both believe Green Bay can ease win this game. Like they are a good team. They're so well coached. You know this field's going to be extra wet. They're going to water this field right before tip off. And I just love this Green Bay team with this match. It was just like last week. Like I played the number against Green Bay because I thought they're in a look ahead spot that they were going to kind of play down to their competition. This is, they know this is basically for their season. The same thing as we backed to Colts last week against Houston. Like you get these divisional teams and these kind of matchups where you put the human element to it of these guys know like they know they need this for the division

there is an extra umph to that the extra effort and extra um motivation these type of spots so you know i'd grab like i said on tuesday i'd grab it now people i do think once everything is clear with jordan love this does go down a three and it stays there kick off it just feels like the professional side where the public is going to come in so heavy on the Detroit detroit team where they don't realize this is this is where you want to hop off for this week so um i don't say this i'm not saying this is a scheduled loss but there are kind of games like that right we always talk about teams aren't going to just lose one or two games the entire season that's those are really rare outliers those teams are you know either have been extremely lucky or like the you know 19 and o patrick team

that's just the most dominant team we've ever seen put it together so uh respected detroit we think they're a great team but this is such a spot for this green bay team yeah this is one of the games when I bet Jared Goff to be MVP, I expected him to lose. Right. You know, like he's banged up, it's outside, it's just sort of, he won't play another game outside the rest of the year unless you count the Cowboys, you know? Well, no, he's going to a soldier field. Oh, he's got to go to Soldier Field. Other than that, like outside against the Cowboys, if the, if the roof is open. But it doesn't really count. All right. Last game to discuss, Indie five and a half at Minnesota. Yeah. Joe,

Flacco was starting now. Joe Flacko. It's been really interesting. Since this was announced 48 hours ago, the analysis about Anthony Richardson across the punditry, social media, you know, column inches spilled on internet machines, it's been fascinating. Like so many people sort of decrying the idea that completion percentage is how you should be judging Anthony Richardson and then looking deeper and looking at the choices he makes when he doesn't complete a pass and the leverage position that he is putting his team in positively and the net

ROI if he completes a downfield pass and really great and interesting analysis that makes completion percentage not a great way to measure his development because it's terrible like the past 25 years I think Aquili Smith is the only guy with a worse completion percentage But Joe Flacco, despite like the brilliance we think he brings and, you know, he's not exactly, as he likes to say, elite. No. So are the Colts better off short and long term as an unabashed Richardson backer? Where do you stand on this? I hate it.

Like this is why I always say these teams, you can just be so screwed if you have the wrong owner. And this to me is an owner move. And we talk all the time in life, you never want to make a decision out of anger. And this was to me a decision made out of anger. Because if it was logic, the logical move would have been do this a week ago against Houston. Like that would have made more sense. Okay. The coaches make this change here because they want to see they can beat Houston here and steal this division.

They didn't. And, you know, when they interviewed Shane Stike and it seemed like even he was kind of alluding to, yeah, this ain't me. This is the owner making this decision here. So I feel bad for Colts fans. Like, Joel Flacco is not, they know this. He's not getting in the Promise Land. Is he really gonna beat Mahomes in the playoffs? Is he really gonna beat Lamar or Josh Allen in the playoffs?

No, he lost his CJ as a rookie last year in Houston. So I don't get it. Like to me, you need, you just needed Anthony Richard and get the reps like, you know, in a sick world, Daniel, Daniel Jones over here, you get 71 starts in NFL. This kid only gets nine or 10. And it's just, I hate that kind of stuff.

Like this kid has so much potential. We all knew it was gonna be rough, right? We knew coming out of college, this kid was just raw talent. And he had a great deep ball, but he couldn't complete a 10-yard pass. It's continued. And I get why they're pissed off about,

especially ownership, but it's like, that's all you have them take the reps. Like he needs these reps to kind of figure that stuff out and then work on that stuff in the off season. So bizarre move, but for our job's sake, like I wanted to be on the Vikings, because I thought Flores would have a huge mismatch against Anthony Richardson, that's out the window now.

Flacco, Flacco doesn't seen it all. So yeah, the value to me shifts to this Colts team. And the number to me, as I moved enough, it's gone down from six to five now. Yeah. I got this number of four, so right now I have a point of value on the Colts, so I would take this on the Colts, but I don't know what to do with it.

Like I can't imagine what the vibes are like in the locker room after this type of move where even the quarterback said, you know, he didn't really have much to say about it from this coach. And, you know, Pittman, the wire receiver saying he found out via social media. Like, it just seems very dysfunctional with this Colts team. So I'm happy to avoid this one, especially for our contest. But man, just a strange move for this Colts team.

I don't get what the end goal is. It's to get a wild card and that's that. Like, no, you want to be setting yourself up for five, 10 years down the road, not this that position situation. So, yeah, I felt, I feel bad for the Colts. I do too. And I love Shane Steik. know I think he's great.

I think he would have done wonders to continue to develop Anthony Richardson. Maybe that happens. I don't understand the move. I agree with you. I actually didn't rush to bet the Colts when the move was announced, even though the number ticked down from six to five and a half immediately. I do think that's where the value is, but I still think there's something intangible that can't be addressed here that makes me nervous about betting the Colts, especially against a Vikings

team that knows it needs, it can't lose three in a row. It needs a big game. So I agree with you. But the Colts live then. We talk about the script for the Vikings has been incredible this season. If they're up 10, nothing, go bet the Colts live. Go bet the Colts. Yeah. Because you get the Vikings in the second half, they're a different team. Different team. You get Sam Darnold unscripted, different conversation. Yep. boosted underdog money line parlay time each week. We give out a two-team money-line underdog. Parlay, Bet-365, boost the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend under both team game pages.

And remember, both games are eligible for Bet365's early payout promo, where your money-line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17-point lead, even if they lose. If you want to bet this, better to bet 365. This week's boosted parlay is the New England Patriots, and no surprise, Green Bay Packers. Find the boost under either Patriots or Packers game pages on DET 365. Simon, our Moneyline underdog round robin. We'll come a payday.

Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday, someday. There will come a payday. Hallelujah. What a payday. I think we'll have the Pats in there. Correct. I think we'll have the Packers in there.

Yep. I'm tempted by it. I know you say you can't see the Vikings losing three in a row, but crazy things have happened, right? And you're getting plus 185 right now in the Colts. I feel like that's a pretty good value. I don't mind that. I don't mind the Colts, the Packers, the Pats.

I think we had in there, the Browns. Browns are plus 100. So yeah, technically we can get them in there. I don't mind that. Browns, and then we need one more. I mean,

I hate them. I know I just shit on them and I'm on Atlanta, but don't we have to do the Cowboys? Like, that's a coin flip game. Those are the type of underdogs we take. Yeah.

To me, it was actually Cowboys or Seattle. That's fair. But I don't want to jinx our opportunity here. No, don't do it. I got way too much on the Rams. I don't want to bring a grenade into our own foxhole. They won't do it.

to me. You know, so underdog, money line, round robin, parley, Colts, Packers, Pat's, Browns, Cowboys. Give me your biggest bets right now. Definitely Green Bay, Rams, you know, bills, those three off the top.

And then secondary, I'll probably go Saints, Patriots, and then I know it's sickening, but I'm going to end up on the Giants pretty heavy. So for my three biggest ones, definitely Packers, Rams, and the bills. I know a little chalky this week, people, but that's just how it is. I really can't believe you're going to be that aggressive on the giant. I know, I'm sicko.

It's just, at what point, this is number moved too much. That's the issue with this number here. It's, I think it should be three. It's all up to four now, Chad. This is the life of a sad man. Give me your Scoot Roulette. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. Scute Roulette, six and two in the season, people, we stay hot. I want to steal Chad's pick a Green Bay so bad because I know that's probably what he wants to do. But I'm going to give my guy a layup. I'll let him take Green Bay.

I'll take the Buffalo Bills minus six. Oh my God. You are a gift because I actually wanted to choose. I was going to do Green Bay or Buffalo. And I knew you were going to do one or the other. Yeah. So I was ready for both. I would have taken both.

But you know what? Green Bay is a great one. You're a gift. You give every day to me. All right. It's time to bring in our director of research. Evan. Let's get smarter. Final word. Let's get a little bit smarter, Evan.

Make us feel good. Also, give us those Harbaugh, Lamar Jackson, first half stats. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. As the tone of reality of this show, let me clean up two things, and then let me go into exactly what we're talking about here. You guys are talking about Richardson. So I just quickly look this up.

So Richardson has 23 starts combined college and pros. Stroud already has 25 in the pros. So if you want to make a comparison, there. Richardson just needs more time. But also, he threw 24 touchdown passes in his college career. That was the fewest by any first round quarterback since 2001. His completion percentage of 54% was the lowest by a first round quarterback since Jake Locker in 2011. Let's all just not assume this wasn't a shock. We kind of knew this walking in. So it is what it is. Let's move on there. Baltimore first half to answer your question. So that is first half is up to six for Baltimore

now. 262 quarterbacks last 20 years. Number one in first half, ATS is like, Lamar. Number two, Flacco. So Harbaugh, that's doing great. He's 59% first half ATS, best of many head coach. So that's, that's the stuff out of the way. Let me talk about a few picks you guys like here. So let's start with Buffalo. So when I'm doing a little bit of research, I wanted to try and pinpoint where Josh Allen might have the opportunity to blow out his opponents, since we talk about that stat of his wins and winning by a large margin. So who knows what we're going to actually be getting out of the Dolphins offense, because we've talked about this two and not two of the number. are just kind of jumbled. What we do know is more predictable is their defense. So they're allowing 123 yards per game on the ground, which is middle of the pack in the NFL. But when Josh Allen faces defense is allowing 120 plus where Allen is favored, he is 28 and three straight up, winning by 14.8 points per game. He is 18, 11, and 2 against a spread covering by 7 points per game. So seems like you know what? I feel so good about that because what is the stat that I pinpointed? I pinpointed the Dolphins rush defense and like, I feel great now.

I feel fucking great. Well, check for Evan, number one. All right. Number two, Packers, how can we not talk about this? I'm just going to give one clear system play that I think you almost just need to follow here. So teams covering 80% of their games, which is the Lions, who are a road favorite, 53, 89, and 3, 37% against a spread since 2010. And that moves to 32% ATS in division games. It's a clear play on Green Bay, one play one way or the other. And then the thing that's kind of going around everywhere,

LaFour is great as a dog. But when he's getting three points or more, he is 18 and four against the spread. No way. 20 and two when that throws into a six point teaser. So it's the right number, go that direction. And then I'll end with one more, which is Tampa. So the, odd thing with Tampa, kind of like with Miami, is the numbers don't matter as much anymore without Godwin and Evans. So if you like Tampa, there's really three options. A, their defense shows up and keeps it close. B, Baker balls out without Evans and Godwin, probably not the option. Or C, Baker finds the back door. So what I looked up with Mahomes, he is 28, 31 and 3 against a spread as a six point favor. When his opponent is averaging 250 plus passing yards when he's a

six-point favorite. He's just three, eight, and one against the spread. Now, in those three covers, he's won by 39, 18, and 35. So could he blow out Tampa and cover the game? Sure. Maybe an option you might want to look at. You like Tampa to cover? Cool. But if you take KC to win by 20 or 30, to win by 30 is 11 to 1. So maybe there's a few ways to play a little on both sides, but the numbers say take Tampa, especially if Baker can find his group without his receivers. Alt spread on the Kansas City Chiefs. That is nice, Evan. That is tasty.

Well done. See, Simon, don't we feel better right now? I do. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and now new Bet365 customers get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older in presence in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana,

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