The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Matt Stafford. Jalen Hurts. So many great NFL quarterbacks are in action this weekend, as Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to talk best bets, including opportunities for Jim Harbaugh fanatics, Eagles backers, and Baker Mayfield true believers.  Plus, we hear their boosted moneyline parlay courtesy of bet365, their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, and so much more. #Volume  #herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season.

And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game 7, Marquis keep coming to you. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love.

This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If a baby is giggling in the back seat, they're probably happy. If a baby is crying in the back seat, they're probably hungry. But if a baby is sleeping in the back seat, will you remember they're even there? When you're distracted, stressed, or not usually the one who drives them, the chances of

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When I did podcasts, I wear my sleep masks. I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me. That's right. The incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for

300 crimes? Yeah. We got two. I'm ready to go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live for my Tommy John home studio. And I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing? Dude.

Today is our NFL wildcard, best bets episode. We're going to do something a little bit different with today's show. Normally, we only look at sides for each game. Those are the most popular bets, and we do the contest that are tied to them. But there are fewer games. Our opinions on the sides we like haven't changed that much since Tuesday. We've gotten some new intel that lines are moving. So I think we're feeling more strongly about some games.

but we're adding any other bets that we like as well, which a couple people have emailed me about if we could add that. Hopefully that will give folks more to look for, more to root for, more to think about for this weekend. We will, of course, get into the Foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John. Big Balls, bet of the week. We'll discuss your biggest bets.

We'll do our boosted money line underdog parlay, so on and so on. Later on in the show today, Simon and I did have a chat. This was fantastic. I encourage everyone to listen with Daniel Winsberg, the Pride of North Dakota, Bow Bell's, North Dakota, population 300, and he lives outside of Bell Bells. He's the winner of our $40,000 first place prize in the favorites Pro Football Pickham contest, an absolute pleasure with a kicker surprise ending that could have Simon and I end up being

the most popular names in all of Bow Bell's North Carolina. Dakota. So please listen for that. He's great and he deserves the attention. Betts are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss, Colin Cowherd, likes to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $50, deposit $10, and place a bet for $5 to get $150. in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present

in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as always, on Thursdays, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. I especially like to hear how they're responding to me

in our Tuesday conversation. But whatever the case is, they feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Let's do sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring.

Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, it's a week of some disagreement chat. I think we already knew that coming into this. We loved the Chargers. So let's start with that one. We are firmly with Joe Public on that one. Basically, any pro I've talked to for the most part is on the other side.

And I kind of knew they're going to be because all the trends kind of favorite the Houston side. But I thought it would be more people basing off their models and just, you know, what they've watched. And I think they're just going to play this statistical numbers. And the fact that the percentages say, if long term, you bet Houston's exact spot, that's a winner long term. But Meenchat ain't here to do that. Mean chat are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half. So that feels like the biggest sharp trap of the week. It feels like they're walking into one and that everyone just pretty much patting each other on the ass and saying how smart each other are on Houston.

and, you know, could they cover it? Sure. Houston's been a team that's played close games all season. I don't fault for taking the three, but I just don't understand the logic not taking the two and a half on the charters. To me, that's the value. We will not be bullied, Simon. No, no.

So I'm excited to break that one down even more because I do have opinion on that total. Next game, shockingly, Chad, the pros I've talked to like the Ravens, which I am shocked by. I thought it would be Pittsburgh heavy. It's not as it obviously there are pros like me who just are taking that 10. Like how do you not take that plus 10 that was such a great number still feels like a gift. Even Beth 365 is still holding at 10 at their book. But when you talked a lot of these bookmakers, it's like the amount of money they have on the Ravens adding in professional money that's come in on the Ravens, especially early.

Like the Ravens open seven and a half. Like that was basically all the money they got early was just professional money. And pretty interesting hearing guys, though, still willing to take the Ravens at minus 9.5. And I just, I don't know. It feels like I'm taking crazy pills here. And I get where they're coming from, right? Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game since whatever it is, 2017, 2018. I understand that.

But I just can't believe these guys are this confident taking a double-digit favorite and against a divisional foe who they've struggled against. So, again, that's another game we're going to go through. You were on the professional side and this bill is one. I thought more pros were on Denver. It's split for sure, but it's more pros I've talked to, do like this bill's side. And it is going back to what we talked about with Evan,

or I guess we haven't yet, but just basically these quarterbacks making their first start. It's a real thing. We have the numbers that back it up. Like it's just different. The playoffs are simply just different. And now you factor in that this is a rookie making their first. start. And yeah, we had a little run there where, you know, Brock Purdy won his first start.

CJ last year, right, against Joe Flack on the Browns won his first start. So we have had a little come back the other way. That makes me even more confident in this going the other way because we are due for more of these first time quarterbacks to get losses here. So that was when I jumped out. I did not think pros would be on the bills, but they love the bills. We are on the public side chat. I think you already knew that our Eagles love is heavily public. I think I, you know, talk to a handful of guys that had bet the Eagles, but none of it with confidence. Everyone I've talked to thinks this is a trap game for this Eagles team and that, you know, too many people are discounting and counting out this Green Bay team that, I think you touch on a little bit, Chad, with LaFleur,

they're just such a well-coached team and he performed so well as an underdog. This is really a LaFleur spot. Like in this exact scenario, he tends to cover these numbers. So, you know, doesn't make me feel great. I got this at a minus six number. And I had a couple guys being like, you're fucking way off. That's a bad number. You should have trusted your original number of four.

And I just, I push back on that. I just think this Eagles team is just so good across the board. And they're fully healthy. Even watching J Allen Hertz in that practice the other day, it's like, you know, you would never know he was coming off two weeks of a concussion and not working out. Like, he just looks fully informed, ready to go. So I'm excited to break that one down. See if you're, if you're confident's way of it at all.

Like, you know, I still love the Eagles, but I'm probably going to invest a little bit more in Green Bay first quarter, Green Bay first half. So that'll be my little bit of a hedge where I trust the Eagles to really roll them in the second half. But I agree with the professionals that they think the Eagles might come out slow, a little sloppy against our Green Bay team that is going to be prepared and ready to play in this game. You know, here's a game that we love the professionals love Washington, Tampa Bay. We love Tampa. The pros love Tampa. Public loves commanders. that so I don't even need to dive into that too much. We'll break that down when we go through the games. Last one, not a shocker at all.

I mean, this is another side. We love Rams. The public loves, loves, loves Minnesota. I haven't talked to a single pro yet that has taken the Vikings side. And, you know, a couple guys I talked to who haven't bet this. Their view is, I can wait and maybe this number will flip and I can get this Vikings team as a dog and that's the position I want to be on. and I joke with them.

I'm on the complete same mindset from the other side where it's like I've been betting the one and a halfs on this ramps team, but I really have been loading up on teasers with them. Like this is my favorite teaser team, them and the bills. I know it's sacrilege to tease through zero long teasers, but I kind of don't really respect Wong teasers,

especially when it comes to playoff time. I feel like it's a little outdated. I've been teasing the Chargers through zero, up to three and a half. So I have a couple, them at three and a half. Rams up to seven and a half. I just love this number.

And that's a game where, yes, we know what's happening in California. Me and Chad, we think of all these people and all these guys' families who are being affected by these fires. And could that be a major issue for a lot of these Rams players who do have stuff going on outside the field and they have major distractions? Of course. But me and Chad, we can't handicap that. Like we're just going off the numbers here. So, yeah, for the most part, Chad, we're dead on with our love of the Bucks and the Rams. on the other games, it all sounds pretty split up between the professionals.

So it's an interesting week for sure. Well, let's get into it. Let's start with that Chargers game. Right now, the number of Bet365 is Chargers minus three. The total is 42.5. There is a two and a half out there. It is available. I've hit the two and a half a couple times.

I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more. This was my exact decision. stats that I didn't mention on Tuesday. And again, I know, you know the wise guys, they have been leaning into the Texans. If you listen to Stucky and Raybon on the Action Network pod, they freaking love the Texans this weekend. Stroud finished 31st, C.J. Stroud finished 31st in EPA

and completion percentage over expectation. Okay? The Texans finished 31st in early down success rate ahead of just the Browns. We talked about the O line. C.J. Stroud pressured 28% of his dropbacks. That was second most in the league. And one of the reasons a lot of the analysts all season long, if you read anybody who was breaking down C.J. Straub.

Troubles. They were talking about his Achilles heel this year has been against defenses running two high safety schemes. Chargers do list nearly 60% of the time and shrouds YPA against this is 28th and his QB rating is 31st. So I still feel good about it. I am not expecting some kind of miraculous recovery that all of a sudden this team is going to be different than it was all throughout the season. Normally in the playoffs when teams lose, they lose because of the same things they did all season long, right? Isn't that always what happens? Like, you watch a playoff game and the things that had been bugaboos for teams throughout the year are the reasons why they can't convert, can't get over the top in the playoffs. The things that the

Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with. I don't get the love, Simon. I don't get the wise guy love for the Texans here at all. Well, again, a bunch of different things that I think they look into, especially if you're looking at the trends, is this is another tough road game, a tough spot for this Chargers team. And historically, when teams have played a bunch of road games in a row,

right, doesn't work out for them, right? heading to the playoffs. We've kind of seen it that Evan had amazing stats. Since 2003, teams that are on their third road games or later on any road trip, they're 45 and 71 straight up, so 39%. And these teams are 5 and 12 straight up

over the last three seasons, this exact spot. So that's kind of the logic, right? That they're like, okay. You know what I would like to know? I'd like to know, maybe Evan, you can figure this out and we can talk about it at the show. Teams that are on the third road game as a face.

I don't know what the sample sizes this is going to be. For Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, the coaches who I think are real difference makers. You know, you can throw in some John Harbaugh, other coaches who in these past 20 years have been real factors when it comes to power rating these teams. And I think this year it matters more than ever. and I just think that's going to put them in a better position to accumulate points in the exact spot where they need to. And just to close it out,

and basically a team, like the Chargers playing this exact spot, so three straight road games into the playoffs, they're 11 and 27 straight up. So they only went 29% of the time. So that's what I said on Tuesday, I was fine with me, Chad, betting that 30%. Like, again, it happens, obviously, that one out of three times,

So we're basically banking on that here, making this bet for the most part. But it really is all about kind of what you just touched on there. It's about this Chargers team. They're coaching. Herbert himself, like, I just have a ton of confidence, this guy, especially as a favorite on the road. Like, he's been really good to us as a favorite on the road. And usually when the books price him that way, it tends to go our way. And, you know, he's 7-1 against the spread in this exact spot, his last eight.

So it's like he clearly has done really well in this exact scenario, being on the road as a favorite. And, you know, it's interesting talking to pros, just why they're so confident in this Texan thing when you do push them, Chad, and you try to get them to really break it down, it feels like they're betting on a Texas team that doesn't exist anymore.

Those are the exact words. When you were saying they're betting on a Texas team, in my head I'm saying that doesn't exist. It's not the Texans team that they think they're betting. And I agree. team, what they're really good at on defense is pressuring the quarterback. The Chargers have two of the best tackles in the NFL and Joe Alt and Rishan Slater. So the one thing that they're great at and their secondary is so banged up.

They're down to third stringers across the board when you're talking about cornerbacks. Like, well, not stingly, obviously, but in other positions, they can stop the pressure because their tackles are so good. And I do see a word where they can cover this number just because. Because yes, if the moment's too big for Herbert and Houston's defense, who has played really well all season, we know how great of a coach, D'Amico Rines is, and how he just gets his defense fired up and ready to play in almost every game. That is their formula, right? Somehow keep this game ugly and close. But we've seen it. The Chargers team, they just don't play that.

They're never the ones that make the mistakes. And if you want to play ugly, they're happy to play it ugly. Like, they are more than happy to do that. But we've seen them kind of transition the second half of the season where, you know, Herbert's just gotten so much more comfortable with these wire receivers. And his receivers, you know, we can knock them for their drops. They have gotten better as it seems gone long here. And his connection with Ladd McConkey's grown as well.

So it's like it feels like these are two different teams that I don't think the professionals have given enough credit to this charges team, how they've improved and discrediting this Houston team that have lost so many key pieces to this team. So yeah, well, me and Chad, be killing ourselves as this lanes on two. If the charges win, but it's by two. and we've been choking all season how important two and a half is yes that's going to hurt but i have to trust the number here and think me me and you are getting a really good number and um if you're like me and you're kind of feeling like a little bit of a coward with this one just because

the pros are so heavy on houston tease it through zero like if you're getting charges three and a half there's no scenario no scenario i see houston winning by more than three if they do win this like that to me is by far the safest bet but you like to be a risk taker what me and chat are I don't know how you don't take this Chargers number here. And, you know, obviously I keep talking about this defense here. I love the under as well. Like this is, to me, another play on this game

where it's like, that's way too high of a total. I got it at 41. It was 43 and a half. It's been bed down to 42 and a half. Still, that's a key number. You're still getting great value on this number. So this is, there's a couple games I like the under in. This is towards the top of my list.

I really love this under. Yeah, I was going to say, I think I lean, when I want to talk about the total. So I lean that way as well. I think it'll be conservative. I think they're going to try to limit their own mistakes, potentially forcing some from Stroud.

And we'll know. And playoffs are weird. We'll be dead in a minute, chat, if this goes over. Like if it's 20 to 14, the first half, the right-ins on the wall. We're dead. But that's my view of this where it's like I can just see one offense or one of these teams showing up the other offense, just not being able to get it going.

Because like we said, these are two defense. that do know how to scheme it up and play well against teams. So, yeah, I do love this total. Pittsburgh is a nine-point underdog right now at Bet365 against the, no, nine and a half, I'm sorry, against the Ravens, the total 43 and a half. This was Simon says when it was at 10. It has moved to nine and a half. It's at 10 in some other places.

It was 10 at Bet365 this morning, and now it's back down. we do not officially know the status as A Flowers. He did not practice earlier this week. Ian Rappaport, the NFL Network, has reported that he is a long shot to play. Like, we talked on Tuesday. We were going to run through some of the trends for the Steelers. And it does worry me how well teams that are double-digit faves have performed in the wildcard round. But this is not the same.

same Steelers team, I think, that lost 3417 to the Steelers, that lost 3417 to the Ravens a few weeks ago. Reminder, under Tomlin, Steelers are six and one as a dog of more than three points versus the Ravens. That one loss was on the 21st of December. Over the last 20 years, underdog in this series, 74%. underdog 16 3 and 1 since 2015. Tomlin, 2116 straighted up 1915 against a spread versus John Harbaugh as a dog 133 and 2. Now you tell me how much you hate playing Lamar in the playoffs because you do. But I just think the Steelers defense is better than it was when they played on the 21st.

They were missing a lot of guys in the secondary. We talked about Joey Porter going out of the middle of that game. That's when the tide started to turn, and they really needed to be perfect on offense, and they weren't. So I'm still good with the Steelers here at 10. Obviously, would rather have the 10 than 9 and a half. I'm surprised the wise guys are so confident about the Ravens. I think their confidence stems from the struggle of Russell Wilson down the stretch. And even that game you're talking about, if you go back to it, it's a 7-7.

game and they are driving the field Pittsburgh. They're into the red zone. Russell Wilson runs with the ball. And instead of sliding, he tries to get that extra one or two yards, gets popped and fumbles. That to me would flip that whole game. Like that gave all the momentum back to the Ravens. And then we know the issue, right?

They got two more injuries on the defense. You just talked about Joey Porter Jr. went out in that game. All of a sudden, it was just rolling. Like Lamar was into his zone. That's the key for Lamar. If he gets into his zone, into our rhythm, we're probably going to be. going to be cooked here, brother. Like, this guy is the two-time MVP. It might be three-time. Like, you know, we don't know. Should be three-time. Wow, really, you're one of those.

Oh, my God, totally. If you took the names off the list and did not know Lamar Jackson had won the past two, and you looked at the numbers, it's not even comparable. It really isn't. He was such a good quarterback this year, so much better statistically than Josh. Allen in so many ways. It's not even, it shouldn't even be a conversation. It really shouldn't. That's fair. Maybe it's kind of like Leo getting his Oscar, right?

That's how I feel with Josh now. And it's like he has earned the right to get this MVP in my view because of what he's done over his career in this amount of time. And I agree with you. Lamar, incredible season, everything like that. But I am one of those people. I'm kind of dug in on Josh. And I think he deserves it for the season he put together just because it's all about

expectations right and I I look back to the start of the year I just I'm just blown away with Josh Allen accomplished with this team that we thought had nothing left we're on the flip side of Lamar not that I'm saying I expected it but come on man the dude had you got Derek Henry that was a huge upgrade to this guy who was already MVP before getting the second third best running back of football but yeah for this game specifically you know we know the stats about Lamar right Lamar me and chat have talked at Naz me about this guy. He is probably my favorite quarterback to bet on in the regular season. He just is a cash cow. He is so good to me and chat. And we kind of have a rhythm with him. We know at this number,

you take them when it's under three, right? You take them when it's above three. Either fader, you just stay away. And, you know, we can't avoid the numbers that are out there for the playoffs. I know the fans get upset about it. They're like, you can't keep judging, right? Eventually, Peyton Manning got over the hump. I agree. You eventually will get over the hump. I just, just I'm not going to be betting on it. Like he burned me so hard last year where it was lined up perfectly for him and his team. He couldn't do it. And like he turned back into old Lamar.

And, you know, in the regular season, Lamar, 25 straight up in night games. Incredible. 25 straight up in night games he plays. Like that's an insane stat that he's 80%. In the playoffs, he's 0.2 in night games. And you'd be like, well, it's individual games. Okay.

He lost the bills on the road. 17 to 3 and then he lost at home 28 to 12 against that Titans team and that is if you go through the day like you said Chad double-digit favorites have performed really well 17-on-1 straight up that one loss is that Titans game so to me there is something with this Lamar stuff where it's like you can't overrate his struggles in the playoffs I know people want to keep brushing it by but it's like if you look at the list of two-time MVPs just about all of them have Super Bowl rings he's one of the few guys that, you know, just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs. So to me, this is the worst matchup you possibly could have got. He's

going against a divisional foe that has his number that plays really well against him. And I am very dug in on this. Like, I just love this Pittsburgh team now. The only reason I'm not hammering people being like, you have to take Pittsburgh's money line. You got to do it is just because of Tomlin's struggle in the playoffs. Like his team just has not been winning these playoff games. And that is, you know, you can say, well, he hasn't had the quarterback. and everything like that. I do agree with that. But some of it is on Tomlin.

He's just not had great decisions at the end of these playoff games. And, you know, I'm going to be betting it, but it's not going to be me and Chad's money line around Robin. We're not that crazy at this point. Or I should say our parlay we give out. So I do love it. I'm betting their money line. But to me, the smart safe bet here is taking the plus 10

if you can still get it on this Pittsburgh team. I just think that's way too much value on a game that's going to be close. and Chad, we know the deal here. If we get one or two of those magical Pittsburgh bounces, which we've lived off of, they could upset and win this game. Like if the momentum flips to them, Lamar is going to feel all that weight on him.

And that to me is something that is kind of the human element of it. It's something that I can't put into my model and we really can't put a number to it, but that's a real thing. Like if it's midway through the third quarter, Lamar has zero touchdowns in a pick, and he's down by, say, three or four points, he's going to be pressing.

There's no way he's not going to be pressing and try to push the ball downfield. Amrask, you just said it from the top of the show. Zay Flowers has missed two practices in a row at this point, and he's a long shot to playing this game. That's another thing that's not being talked about enough. So, yeah, I think you clear you can tell. I'm heavily invested.

I really like this Pittsburgh number. I'm on the number two. I don't buy the Lamar underperforming in the playoffs. So that data set for the O and two specifically, sometimes that just feels, it feels too small and circumstantial. And I feel like these players change and get more confident.

And I think if, and this is an interesting bet, the Ravens are great in the first half. If the Ravens do what they're supposed to do in the first half, I think then he will be in a good position. I also agree with you if they're struggling in the second half, some of that weight will come to bear. I'm not sure I buy the theory of anti-Lamar as much as I'm pro-spot, pro-stealers being better than they were when they played, you know,

a little less than a month ago. One of the hot bets for action is, and likely to me, a hot bet amongst regular betters, is Baltimore first half, which is six and a half. Lamar, the best first half quarterback in the NFL in the past 20 years. Steelers, the worst first half team against the spread in the NFL since

2021. Give a thought on the first half, the Raven's six and a half. Well, I'll give you more useless numbers while I'm still here then. Lamar and his career chat in a playoff game, he's never won a game where his team is giving up more than 13 points.

So, I mean, that's pretty alarming. Don't take it personally that I'm not into one of your stats. I am a hundred percent. I'm standing up for Evan. I'm standing up for Evan. But no, I just, I just, my whole point of just breaking down is that he's been choking

brother. Like guys want to deny it and be like, say what you just say. They're like, well, he can grow. He can change. All right, well, let's fucking see it. I'm going to bet against it because it's like I have no data to back up that he could, he has grown and changed. He dominates the regular season and then he falls apart and does nothing in the playoffs.

So we're, we're going to see it. Like these defenses know they're going to stack the box. They're going to make Lamar pass in this game. So yes, if Lamar doesn't get tight, we know he's the, we just said it. He's the second or first best quarterback in football right now. So first. I'm with you. I get it.

So yeah, that's just my viewpoint is, um, I think it is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that and my model backs it up. But the human level of it, I'm just thinking psychologically, he just seems like he gets flustered in the playoffs and that's panned out these last couple seasons. What do you think of the total? It's at 43 and a half. It moved down from 46. So it's a big move.

I think partially because he's A-Flowers, I think. Yeah. Maybe because people think he'll be tight. I would expect that it'll be a low-scoring game. You better hope. I just told you. I know. If his team allows more than 13 points,

he loses Lamar, apparently, in the playoffs. But my view of it is if we're taking Pittsburgh, we can't have it be a shootout. I have no confidence in Pittsburgh's offense in a shootout right now. like that. Russell Wilson, we joked about from week 10 and all those, you know, midweek throwing those 50-50 balls and then working out for him, that has not been there these last four or five weeks. And I think even Evan said it, right? He hasn't scored more than 17 points in these last couple weeks. So yeah, it's it's not a game that for us, we want it to be a shootout,

but I have no view on the total. Like I was going to bet the under, but I'm so invested in Pittsburgh. That's just my play. Well, look, it's the kind of correlation where it's a very low total with a very high spread. So in those circumstances, you tend to want to lean into the underdog because people expect it'll be a low scoring game and it's just harder to win by 10 points than a low scoring game. So I hope it goes out the way with it we wanted to. Hey, it's us to Jonas brothers and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting.

a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and Headwere writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between

songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our

podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have

Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Oh, yeah.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the parrot. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Scovel and me, Josh Dean,

for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not.

I say we invest and we see. Only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk.

Listen to crime lists on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month. Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. Jay, and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. When you hear the word healing, what does that mean for you?

What came right back to mine are the three P's that I live by. I'll go through the process of healing so that patience, that perseverance, and that prayer equals healing to me. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools,

real conversations, and the mindset shift. you need to move forward and thrive. You matter too. Your mental health is your responsibility, not your wife, not your partner, not your children, not the church, not the pastor, not the council. It's your responsibility. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it.

Listen to Just Here With Dr. Jay on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Simon, we're going to have the winner of the 100th, $1,000 favorites pickum contest. Come on the show today. Daniel Winsenberg from North Dakota. I'm so excited. How about you? I can't wait.

Let's get to them. It is truly one of our greatest thrills that we get to do. The Favorites Contest $100,000 giveaway, the grand prize winner. $40,000. And this guy, folks, had a miraculous run. He had more five and oh weeks, more undefeated weeks than he had losing weeks. If he had not even played the final week, he still would have won the contest. He beat out 15,000 people to win the $40,000.

He's North Dakota's finest. gambler, Daniel Winsenberg, welcome to the favorites, brother. Congratulations. Thank you. It's an honor to be on a show, and it was great, and I loved doing it and trying to figure out who's going to win or who at least cover. You live in Bow Bells, North Dakota. Bow Bells, North Dakota.

Dude, I looked on the map. Matt Mitchell sent it around to everybody. This place is tiny, tiny, tiny. My hometown has 300 people in it. I live 10 miles outside of that. And my graduating class had 10 kids in it. No. Yes.

I got to know, how does one have Wi-Fi? Do you have Starlink? How are you putting your Pixen every week? We do have Wi-Fi. And luckily, Dad works on phone. So it's not too bad. What do you do there? Are you a farmer?

That's exactly what I am. Yes. I lived here my whole life. My dad and my uncle farmed. And then I just kind of joined in. And now me and my dad farm together, my uncle retired. So that's the story. So we don't need people.

We just need a lot of farmland. And I have cows too. We do wheat, canola, derm, oats, flax, soybeans, peas. Try to little corn. We're not really in corn country, but. Oat, flax, and soybeans. You basically describe my entire diet. I think they're going to ask about daylight savings.

What's your view on that? That's the topic. We should be asking the farmer about should we change the clocks? Is that outdated? We need to go to the actual daylight savings time because right now it's getting too dark, too early. There you go. Yeah. All right.

So give me your gambling load on. How did you get into it? And why are you so good at it right now? And so much better than me and Simon. Yeah, teach us your ways. Because I farm, I spend a lot of time by myself or in a tractor or any equipment. So all day, every day, I just listen to podcasts. Our way I found you guys is I listen to cow herd all the time.

years ago when Chad was on with Cowherd. I just wanted more gambling podcast. So I found out you had your own. Started listening every week. And like I said, I just listened to sports podcasts all day. So between what my opinions are, see what I agree with, what I don't agree with. And then I don't know, kind of go from there, I guess. And then every Sunday, I'm still in the tractor.

I don't get to take off to watch football. So I take an iPad with and put the red zone on and kind of just listen. Don't have a lot of time to watch it. But always paying attention, I guess. I mean, that's the hard thing about being a farmer is the crops don't take a day off. The animals don't take a day off. Just because it's Sunday doesn't mean we take the day off ever, not during a busy season, which is pretty much from April to October.

All right. Well, since you may be the greatest gambler who's ever lived, according to your record, I'm looking at it right now. You had two weeks where you went two and three. One of them you got to drop. every other week was three and two, four and one or five and oh. The big story this year in sports betting is how frequently the favorites were covering. What was your strategy through the year with regard to favorites and making your picks every week?

Bet against bad quarterbacks. Will Levis against him every week. I mean, until he proved me wrong and he didn't. So I don't think like home field advantage meant anything this year. So I mean, even betting favorites, I was doing a lot of road favorites and it was paying out. I hated it. Road favorites seem to be cash in big time. I found out after week 10 that I was in the running for winning.

I think I was in second place after week 10. And then I hated it. I don't know how you guys do it. I ever so much stress on it. I had no money into it. That's crazy. Every week you're chasing a big prize and you know that you can't, you literally couldn't have a bad week, even though you didn't know that you could have had a bad week. You were that far

ahead. Week 14, my girlfriend planned a trip for us to go to Putticana, which is awesome, loved it. And I was more stressed about getting my picks in because I didn't know if I could get them in when I was in another country. Oh yeah. I was going to have Wi-Fi. If I was going to miss two weeks, we're on a beach, all-inclusive resort. And there's this little tiny sports bar on the corner of the lobby. And I made her go in there and watch football with me as I was trying to cover it. Luckily, we just went for the end of the late games, but we were still in there for like two hours. Turns out I ended up going five and O that week and picking the exact number of passing hours on Monday night. So it ended up working out pretty good. So it was a pretty good trip.

Have you put your, have you been in that kind of position before like as a gambler or any other scenario where you've had to carry that kind of stress? Not like this. Farming doesn't do that to you. No. There's a little bit more leeway doing that. I mean, you got to make great decisions. A lot of money involved in it, but it's not the stress like this, there were one bad week and you're out completely. When did you realize that you won it off? I knew for sure after the early games on Sunday, because I think I had a three-game lead, and the person in second, third, they were tied.

They couldn't have caught me. I mean, in gambling, I would not, not saying I win until the clock hit zero. Have you decided what you're doing with the money yet? Kind of. End up buying some cows the other day after I won. Good man. So some of the profits will go to that. And then my other idea is I got really big into sports memorabilia.

When I started this, my plan was I wanted an autograph jersey of all the Minnesota twins retired numbers. And I'm halfway through getting them. So part of it might go to buying the other half. I still need a Kirby Pucket, Harmon Killer Brew, and, oh, Kent Herbeck. By the way, let me see if I can remember. Ken Herbeck, 14? Yes.

Man, come on, Simon. Now, I do have one request, Daniel. Can you please name these cows after me and Chad? Yes. These are going to be known as either the favorites or the Action Network group. How many cows did you buy? Well, I bought 36 of them. So actually, you got a ton of acres.

You guys are an American hero. This 40,000 is not going to quite cover all of them. But luckily, I needed them any. Anyway, this is just helping out. Are they cows that you're going to, like, do you milk those cows? Like, what are you dairy farm, beef farm? Beef farm. They'll have calves and then I'll sell the steers and then I'll probably keep the heifers

and then either get a bowl to breed them and then I'll sell them as bread heifers the next year or I'll just keep them for myself and just kind of keep having calves. Whichever cows you name Simon and Chad, let's not kill those cows. I'll keep those. Those cows live a happy, long life, just chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota. Congratulations on winning the favorites podcast, $100,000 pro football pick a gum contest. The cow king of North Dakota. I wish we had just tailed you the whole season, Daniel.

Congratulations on a huge. Thank you. You are the hero of the favorites contest. Congratulations. Thank you. Simon, we're going to have two cows named after us. If nothing else, it was worth doing the contest just for that. We basically bought ourselves two cows for $40,000.

And he's not going to kill him. He's going to let him live forever. Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine-point favorite. This was a, and the total is 47. This was a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half. one of the lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine, I think this morning at Bed 365.

So much freaking love for Bo Nix, so much fear of Sean Payton and what they can scheme against the Bill's defense that has struggled late in the year. Buffalo 30th in EPA per pass allowed since week 9, 32nd in passing success rate. I don't know. It's not like the Broncos defense is impervious to criticism. Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the Broncos play. Bo Nix has been much worse against zone than against man, which is what the bills predominantly play. I still like the bills here. It just feels like it's primed for a veteran quarterback makes all the right moves.

bow knicks at some point can't have his hand held by sean peyton in the most crucial moment of the game and like we saw against the bengals will make a bad mistake yeah and this will be all your credit if the bills do come this number because you're you're the one that really believes in it i'm i am the one that's like i wanted to be on Denver i feel like i'm being bullied because everyone i've talked to basically is the same as you they like the bills here so i just put the bills in a ton the teasers like you're giving me bills at minus two and a half that's an amazing number against a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road in the playoffs so um my fear is what you just talked about this bill's defense that's the fear like that feels like the back door will be always open and

you know if we get Josh Allen that we know and love and he just goes full kill mode and he puts up 40 points yeah they're covering that number they're going to absolutely roll this Denver team but The fear for me is just if he has one or two bad drives, right? If he just, you know, doesn't perform well or just lets this team get back in it, we've kind of seen this Bill's team. They let bad teams backdoor them. And now they're playing against an offense that is not bad. Like this is an offense that they know how to scheme it up for bone next.

They know how to get him out wide or out in the open to either run the ball or pass it on kind of simple reads. You know, the biggest thing for this Broncos team, they very are much so. Sean Payne's image of the Drew Breeze, right? The quick read three-yard pass. He really has embraced that. And, you know, that's the key with these young quarterbacks. If you can get them into third and four, third, and threes, it's so important compared to them being third and eight.

Like, you know, veteran quarterbacks can kind of get away of that stuff. Boenicks cannot. Even though, you know, the numbers might back up. He's been good pushing the ball down the field. We've seen when he struggles against these good defenses because he's in the long positions, right? And he tries to force a ball in terrible turnovers. Like he's still a rookie.

So yeah, I'm backing you here because you're my guy, and I do believe in this Bill's team. You know, it feels like, you know, it feels lined up this year for that Bill's Detroit Super Bowl, which, you know, everyone, if you're, you gotta be sick in the head if you don't want that, right? Like these two teams that have been through hell with their fan bases, it's lined up for them to make it. And this is the start of it.

Like Josh, Josh Allen has struggled win-loss record-wise in the playoffs where none of that, to me, is on him. Like you go back and you go through all those games. I feel like Josh Allen always put his team the best position to win and it was either the coaching or the defense that let him down a lot of those spots. And the hope obviously is this year it all comes together in the perfect year that he's put together and they figured it out. But it's the same old Bill's thing, right? They still have the weaknesses on the defenses. And I still have a little bit of questions

about their head coach. So yeah, like I'll back them here, but I'm already thinking about next week. I can't wait to really dive into next week Bill's matchup. So come on Bill's got to win this one. I have a lot invested in this one. And for Chad, we got a lot invested in this spread. The total in this game is 47. The luck rankings have this game as an under. Yeah. What scares me is Josh Allen just going off, you know? But even if he goes off, I think like even pros I've talked to, they've been hammering this under as well. I have no opinion on this total. But if you want another professional side, it is the under. I've seen a lot of books now, even before we hopped on here, moving down to 46 and a half. So smart money is coming in.

To me, when you mix in what it's going to be in Buffalo, how cold it will be, this could be the typical game chat where the bills win 40-0. I know it sounds crazy to even think about, but that's what like I would be scared too about Josh Allen going crazy, but I could see them rolling and then just the Broncos never getting off the bus. They're just totally outmatched, playing against probably one of the better teams they've played all season and they just kind of fall apart. So I get where you're coming from,

but professionals love the under. The luck under is something that always jumps out to us. We always talk totals with the luck rankings. So if you're looking for what smart money is doing right now, the smart money from people who respect right now is on the under. Green Bay at Philly. Philly is a four and a half point favorite right now. Totals 45 and a half.

Jalen Hertz practiced on, Wednesday. He is expected to play on Sunday. No surprise. You mentioned that you've watched the tape from practice. You thought he looked really good. The line has not moved since he practiced because it was already priced in. I'm telling you right now, based on what you said, and the fact that we love the Eagles here, it feels like we're in the foxhole on this one. You know, me regards to what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city.

I'm a foxhole guy. All right. I love it. Let's go. We are. You know? But like it's just sort of been hanging at four and a half since we spoke on Tuesday. The total has moved down for 47.

I would expect it to be a very slow start by both teams. But I just think the Eagles are so much better than people are even recognizing because this defense is dominant. Yeah. And I'm definitely trying to thread the needle here to take in Green Bay. first quarter and first half, but to me, that to me feels like the smart play because of what we talk about. Like these teams

kind of are what they are, right? Green Bay performs well in the first half. They're great on script. The Eagles, whatever may be the reason, even before his injury, Jalen Hurts just comes out slow. And we've seen that time to time again this season that they just do not perform well. And a lot of three and outs early on, right? Until he gets into a rhythm, this offense doesn't really move the ball well.

but yeah for my biggest bets of this game it's not even close like I'm heavily investing this Eagles team at three and a half at four at four and a half still been betting it even today I bet it again when I got up this morning and you know I'm just like you I'm shocked this Nebraska moves off Gailen Hertz practicing which either shows that some really smart monies on the other side on Green Bay or the books are waiting to get the clearance that he is out of concussion protocol that's what we're all waiting for because basically you have to do that practice like he did yesterday. yesterday and wake up symptom free today, right?

No headaches, no, you know, not feeling right, no headaches, any of that stuff. So, you know, as we are on the air right now, me and Chad, I have not seen a single thing online, no text, nothing that says otherwise. So we're going to keep going forward like Jane Earnsch is playing this game and he's all good. So yeah, for me, matchup wise, I mean, I don't know if you saw that. Basically, they put out the players all pro votes for the NFL season this season. And basically the way it works is players can vote for anybody but themselves and anyone on their team. So, you know, you can vote everyone obviously in the league. And it jumped out to me that, you know, the number one or I guess number two,

but he's still an all pro in their mind is Jalen Carter at the D-Line position. And the fact that, you know, Zach Braun, our linebackers got so much respect as well. It's like the Eagles have the defense. I think me and Chad and like everyone else are our biggest question mark right now is, is Jalen Hertz gonna show up in this game? Because I remember I gave you that stupid stat about Lamar's never won a game when his team goes up more than 13 points.

Jalen Hertz has never won a playoff game where his defense has given up more than seven points, which sounds insane because he made it a Super Bowl, but that's how that season kind of broke for them, where they played against teams that, you know, the Giants weren't really that good that year and then they got to play a Brock Purdy

who they hurt in the first quarter and then, you know, the rest of his history. Obviously, I talk about all the time. He had the best game of his career that Super Bowl. He was incredible. He just ran into my home. So this team feels like they're still being a little underrated here and that if he was fully healthy coming to this game, this would be six because how can we not talk about how serious of those injuries were to this Green Bay team. Like they lost their number one deep threat receiver and their number one cornerback and now they're playing against one of the best offense in the football and

one of the best defense in the football. Like to me it's it's it's, it's, It's maybe I'm not giving up respect to LaFleur, and that's what the other pros I've talked to who are giving tons of respect to him and just trusting him with this number. It's like you get LaFleur as a big dog like this, a four and a half dog against an Eagles team that might be a little overrated in the public eye

because of all the numbers we just talked about, the fact that they were such a dominant defense and everything like that this regular season. But yeah, I feel pretty good about this Eagles team. And I look at this as a rare opportunity that if this Eagles team, you could still get them a plus 700 for Super Bowl. And I think right now the lines

might be the odds on favorite at plus 280 or plus 290. Do we really think there's that big of a difference between the Eagles and the lines? I don't. I do think this Eagles team match up really well for them. So it is interesting. The books are kind of not showing their hand, but they are a little bit. They believe

in this Eagles team, but not as much as I clearly do. And they're kind of hedging their bets here, thinking they're not going to be the key coming out of the East tier. So, or the NFC, I should say. So yeah, I'm, I'm interested in this game for that, just the biggest standpoint of how Hertz looks, but it's also a true test for this defense against the Lofloor offensive mine. Like this is the ultimate test for them against the guy who, you know, you're giving him a lot of time to face a defense for the second time around. You expect him to have this

kind of figure it out. But, you know, to me, this, this, this Green Bay Area team is underachieved all season. I made that joke with you, Chad. They won the same amount of divisional games as the Chicago Bears did this season. They went one in five. So this was a team that we joked about being the all-hyped team, they lived up to it, even through the Jordan Love injuries, Malik Willis coming in. Like, they somehow found a way and they got the raw deal of being, you know, 11-win team now being the seven-seed. So it wouldn't be, we don't be shocked if Green Bay pulls off the upset, but I would be shocked in the sense of this is probably the best Eagles team I've seen in my lifetime. And this would be a huge disappointment getting knocked

out at home in round one. Well, look, I do think that the Eagles are being a bit undervalued defensively. So much is made of Jalen Hertz and I think from a public perspective, too much is made of him having been in the concussion protocol and being out and not enough is made of just how dominant this defense is. I watched a lot of freaking Eagles games this year. I know you did too. You just wouldn't want to be playing this team. I agree with you about the Lions like I would not want to have to face the Eagles who are so good against the race. which is what the lions need to be great at to get their offense going, just looking ahead, handicapping a potential NFC title game.

LaFleur is the X factor here. You know, like we've talked about it. We don't like to bet against LaFleur, so I understand the four and a half. The betting on the Packers at plus three in the first half is another bet that a lot of people have been talking about also taking the under in the first half. The Eagles have generally been a bad team in the first half, especially bad in the first quarter. The opportunity for the Packers, because they will have been game planning, those first 15 and scripting, is better for them first quarter first half than it is over the extended game. So that's getting a lot of attention right now.

Betting the Packers a plus three. So I understand that one. Entirely, that is our Foxhole, which brings us to Simon, our big, big, but. Balls, Bed of the Week. Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games.

Start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, three point favorites over the Washington commanders. The total is 50, 50 and a half. Highest total of the weekend. You know, it's a game featuring two average downright bad defenses

with two explosive quarterbacks who are not immune to turnovers, yet we're going with the veteran game playing quarterback, playmaking quarterback, over the rookie playmaking quarterback. I think because we think that bucks are undervalued in this spot versus an overhyped team with a dynamic, dynamic playmaker in Jaden Daniels.

Yeah, and I get why the early money and some professional money is coming on the over. I do personally like Daniel, but it's simply, because it is over 50. It feels way too, way too high for a playoff game. I know the first time they played it was what, 3720 Tampa. So I get the perspective of, you know, this, I feel like people think this is going to be a shootout, but from my mindset, it's like the bucks can't have this be a shootout. They need to have a big Bucky Irving game. They need to lean on their

run. Keep, keep the limited snaps out of Jane Daniels hands because that's how he gets to. Like, he is the kind of guy that he is, you know, one of the more dangerous guys of the balls in his hand. The more opportunities you give him to be on the field, he's going to get you, especially this, like you said, this buck's defense. You know, Todd Bulls can do a lot of scheme and kind of give him unique looks that he might not be ready for, but eventually he'll get you, especially if he can wear your defense out, not only with his legs, but using his offensive weapons. So interesting that this is so high, you know, it's rare you see a 50, and especially when it's not, you know, a Lamar versus Josh Allen game like that makes more sense. Not a Janiel,

Jane Daniels versus Baker game, but that's how great these two offense have been this season. And what you just said, how average both these defenses have been. But, you know, I look at this Bucks team. And as the weeks go along, I just love it more and more just because I am in the sports books. I am talking to Joe Public in the line. We're all waiting to cash our tickets for make bets. And it is insane how much love and respect guys have for Jane Daniels and this commander's team. And they just want to bet them, right?

That's the fun, sexy side. And this Bakerside feels like, you know, this ugly, you know, no one wants to bet a type of team that just limped into the playoffs. And, you know, just like Chad, a lot of people don't respect the NFC South. I think that's a division that not. I don't know why you would say that. I've never done anything but love and support the NFC South. Great franchises, a lot of memories, great moments in NFL history.

People really rally around those brands. But it makes me even more sick when you do think about, you know, Poor Matt Mitchell and these Lions fans, they've been around forever. And Tampa's here, you know, what, a couple weeks and they already got two Super Bowls? That's the way it goes. Yeah, it's, I'm looking to it right now

and I just can't get over the fact that we're getting Baker and this veteran team, it's still at minus three against this commanders. It does feel like, I know we love this Chargers number and I do love it, especially at two and a half, but I really, really love this Buckstein. Like this, right now, other than this Pittsburgh line are probably, it's probably gonna be my biggest bet this week.

Like I've, pretty much all day, every day, I've been finding different books to get some money down on this, on this bucks line. And for the most part, I haven't been turned away too much from bookmakers because it's been pretty heavy commander's money. Like this is basically the public's favorite dog this week, which, you know, isn't shocking, right?

They're a fun, exciting team. Gina Danz is really fun. So I get where they're coming from and the fact that, you know, this could be a coin flip game, right? We'll know once it starts, but my view of it is just a rare opportunity to take on a veteran coach with a veteran quarterback who had playoff success together. You know, just last year, they rolled that Eagles team. Like, they know how to play in these exact situations, this exact scenario.

So, yeah, let me fade this overhyped commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three. You know, I reviewed the show from Tuesday a little bit, and I think it sort of went over my head. in the moment how much you loved the Bucks. And now you're being so clear about it. It is a very good matchup. And the Bucs love to blitz. Jaden Daniels not nearly as effective against the Blitz. The total at 50 and a half,

I like the under two. One of the main reasons I like it is because Baker, obviously, we know, is a turnover machine. He's going to throw an interception at some point. But Jaden also, like, a few more fumbles than you'd like, only through nine picks, seven picks in the last seven weeks of the season. So, like, he was so accurate and picked free in the first half of the year, but started to show a little bit at the end of the year.

And those turnovers are just drive killers, right? And, like, a lot of times they are happening in the opponent's half of the field. So then all of a sudden, instead of getting that touchdown or field goal, the other team is getting the ball and they're going on a long drive, eats up more clock, no points out of the drive that was headed into good direction. So I don't mind the under here at all. Either 50 and a half especially feels extraordinarily high.

And we've seen it though that like even the Cowboys, you can say is not that good of a run team. They were pretty much running it down, this commander's team throat. And, you know, Bejan Robinson, just a week before that, having his way, Sequin having his way. So, you know, I know Buckey, Irving is not putting the same sentence as those other guys for I get it you know he's the kind of

new to the league and he's not that type of talent but if you really break down the numbers and look at what bucky's done this season he is a top 10 running back in my opinion like this guy is a workhorse and that to me is going to be the game plan for the for the bucks like for everything i read from their beatwriters and you know i wish i had source on the inside i unfortunately don't i don't really have any connections down there in Tampa but it feels like the way guys are talking about it's like going to be a heavy bucky irving game and they're going to be a heavy bucky irving game and they're going to lean on that run and just keeping the ball at Jane Daniel's hand. And what you just talk about, they need to protect Baker from himself sometimes, right?

Like, Baker can't help himself a turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs. Like, that's going to cost you. So that's another reason why I like this under so much is it just feels like it's going to be a run-heavy game from this Bucks team. Simon, here at the favorites, we know that feedback is a gift. And we're getting loads of feedback about my Tommy John reads. our listeners keep hearing me talk about my downstairs, talking about my lowers. The reactions are

mixed. That is the one thing about feedback. But one thing they all agree on, I'm very comfortable. Some might agree too comfortable. But that's what happens when you're decked out in Tommy. John, you unlock a level of comfort so overpowering. You can barely control what you say into a microphone. And with a special sale for our listeners, you too can achieve this level of comfort. And with thousands of five-star reviews, you don't need to take my word for it. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025? Because comfort is king. That's right.

And right now, you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites and get 25% off your first order, save 25% at Tommyjohn.com. slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a podcast. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with the name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about. what we should call it.

Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Swigley. Michael and friends on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, point game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,

he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court licking his fingers while he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the pair. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny Will Farrell joins Rory Scovel and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes

committed by people also named Will Farrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not.

I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused. But this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his, own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to crime lists on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you

get your podcast. It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month. Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. Jay, and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. When you hear the word healing, what does that mean? for you. What came right back to mine are the three P's that I live by. I'll go through the process of healing so that patience, that perseverance, and that prayer equals healing to me. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools, real conversations, and the mindset shifts you need to move forward and thrive. You matter too. Your mental health

is your responsibility, not your wife, not your partner, not your children, not the church, not the pastor, not the counsel, is your responsibility. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it. Listen to Just Here With Dr. Jay on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Last game on the board, Minnesota visiting the L.A. Rams, the line has moved from two and a half to one and a half. It finally budged a little bit last night, early this morning. Wise guys definitely coming in on the Rams. The number is down to. to one, it's down to half in some places. Total is 48.

I think at the end of the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford. We're getting him at a dog at home, as a dog at home. Yeah, and it's another game that I've taken the under on. It's all about what my mindset is and my game script mind of. This feels like a type of game that is going to be run heavy for this Rams team. And we've kind of seen it now with this blind foyer's defense. That's how you can attack them.

Like you really can attack them through the run because the way he kind of plays their style of defense. And, you know, we joked about it. Like Williams is one of the best running backs in football, especially when you get down in the red zone. The guy's a scoring machine. And Stafford, to me, since that, you know, Lions game, or was it bills? I always keep mixing it up. I believe it was the bills that they beat. He put up whatever it was, 44, 42 points against that team.

Since then, the offense has not been the same, right? They've been struggling. They've just kind of been a different team. And I can't lie to you, Chad. I don't know what I'm going to get here from Stafford. Like it's been different. Maybe he has, you got a major injury I don't know about. And maybe that week off really helped that injury.

He'll bounce back. And this is the perfect situation for him, Pooka and Cooper Cup. Like this is a great match for them against the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. But I think it comes back to that Evanstadt, right, about quarterbacks making their first start. Like this is Sam Donald's first. start and we saw last week in a game where he had the weight of the world the future of his career on him he crumbled he did he melted in that game even when i went back and watched it he missed so many opportunities and so many throws that he's just been nailing all season like we

talked about he's had one of the best seasons you know ever put together by a viking's quarterback like he really was the perfect general for that offense and you know COC had ultimate confidence in And like the place you draw up, it was like, okay, you got to take this hit here, but you're going to get a touchdown or a free release on one of your receivers here. Like if you can just hang in the pocket, let the route develop, it's going to be there. He just was not hitting that last week. And you saw that. He got flustered, right, after you got a couple of hits to the mouth.

Isn't that what the Rams are going to do here? Aren't they just going to bring a ton of pressure and be like, okay, it worked last week. Let's see if he figured it out in a week or if this is what he is, if he is going to struggle against it because early in the year, he was great against the blitz. And it was alarmed and seeing how bad he was last week. So yeah, this is a game where me and you could get burned, Chad. We could be overreacting to last week and say I'm drawn on the struggles and underreacting to Matthew Stafford in this ramps team down the stretch here,

that they have not been the same offense. But to me, this is really about trusting the numbers and the trends that everything points to this ramps team. And you're still getting great value as them as a dog. Like I have them as over a one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a half in a couple books out there. And I know it sounds like a big. big deal, but every point matters in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So, yeah, to me, plus one and a half,

I still love the value on this Rams team. And yeah, I'm going to be betting that man and the under here. So this is a luck over. A lot of expected regression to more scoring for both teams, who obviously we saw the Vikings not score very much in week 18 against the Lions. And the Rams have been scoring less and less since that game against the bills. So Dr. Nick and crew like this as a luck over. Simon, you're fading Dr. Nick. How does that make you feel? It's not good.

Maybe I'll do the cheat that Dr. Nick does. I'll just do the first half. I'll go first half over. Coward. Yeah, right. All right. So the Rams for some reason are the game that I feel the least confident about. I like the number.

I like them much more as a dog than a favorite. But essentially, if you're betting them at one and a half, you're saying you expect them to win the game. And I do, but I still look at this and like, of all these, I feel best about, I think, the bucks and the chargers and worst about the Rams and the Bills. It's fair. And I told you, though, if you're feeling a little cowardly,

Throw them in a teaser, brother. Getting the Rams and Bills are the perfect teaser. So if I, that's what I'm feeling, that's what I'm going to do. That's what I, that's what I'm going to do. All right. Each week we give out a two team, uh, money line dog parlay. This week, it's a little bit different, uh, just because there's fewer dog options to really consider that 365 is going to boost the odds and highlight this money line

parlay to their site all weekend under both promo pages. Remember, both games are eligible for bet three, six, 5's early payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked as a win. If either team takes a 17-point lead, even if they end up losing, if you want to bet this, better to bet 365. This week's boosted parlay is going to be the Rams and the Bucks. Find the boost under either the Rams or Bucks game pages on Bet365. I don't know if we can do a Moneyline underdog round Robin.

What are you going to do? Steelers, Rams, commanders, Texans, Broncos, like... No, it's definitely the week you do the favorites.

I've had a couple fans reach out that thing that they've been saying like, you know, since week 10 and 11 they've just been going the other way because our money line

on Robbins obviously have been dead on arrival. Dogs have just not been winning out right. So, I mean, if you want to go the other way, chat, it's a fun week to do the favorites.

Like you take the Eagles money line, take the Bucs money line, take the Rams in there, chargers. Like, if you want to stay away from the high ones,

like the Ravens and the bills, I still feel pretty good about those ones he just gave out. Obviously, you know, we only love one road team really this week, and that's the Chargers. But this week actually tends to be pretty good for the dogs, right? Historically, I don't know if Evan has the numbers on it, but it feels like normally dogs do cover on Wild Card weekend. Like this is usually a good weekend for them.

So money lines not so much, but if you are just throwing them into around Robin and taking the number, that's fine too. Well, then I'm really thrilled that I'm going all in on the chargers and the bucks and the bills. I'm super excited about that. And when we bring Evan on, he's going to make me feel even worse. What are your biggest bets right now about bucks and Steelers? Bucks and Steelers, definitely.

And then obviously, teasers, I just been doing a ton of teasers. Rams, I told you, when the Chargers got down to two and a half, I fucked along. I went through the zero, took the charge of up to plus three and a half, and, yeah, bills down to two and a half. It just feels like that's a gift. So, yeah, those are definitely my biggest bets right now, just straight bets, Tampa and Pittsburgh on their numbers. When all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. Who should we go with for Scooch Rulette into the playoffs?

You get the first choice since you were the season-long winner. Thanks Oh God I love them all I guess I will go with I got to do it I got to go with my boy Baker I'll take Baker minus stuff

I kind of want to take Tampa darn you all right you're taking Tampa then I guess I'm going to go with the Chargers there you go I have to I have to

all right before we get out of here let's bring in director of research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. Honestly, I have so much to kind of catch up here on

because you've asked me a bunch of questions. So I'm going to attempt to go through a bunch of different things here and you guys can stop me down whenever you want. So you were talking about like Josh, Lamar, and Hertz. Obviously all three at home this weekend. Interesting enough, I kind of grouped them together because they all are kind of looking for still that Super Bowl, win all trying to get there. Obviously, Hertz has been there. They are as a group eight and five

straight up at home in the playoffs, but one and seven away from home, which means nothing for this weekend, but also says that they just can't get that big one to get there. I found that kind of interesting. The second one I wanted to bring to you, as Simon just alluded to, since 2017, underdogs 52 and 34 in the playoffs against a spread 61%. 17% ROI, but wild card round. They're actually 24 and 12, 67% even better. 30% ROI. So yeah, underdogs have had an advantage in this round. Let's keep going with another one Simon mentioned here.

So we talked about the first playoff starts. Teams making quarterbacks making a first playoff start against a quarterback with experience. 19 and 37 against the spread, 19 and 38 straight up since 2002. And basically the same numbers on the road, 11 and 21 straight up. So that's Boe Nix, Jane Daniels and Sam Darnold this week. weekend. Let me go to what Chad mentioned. So Chargers with this third straight road game. So, yes, teams having their third consecutive road game are 39% straight up since 2003. But it is important to note favorites are 24 and 11 in that spot, including three and one in the playoffs. Now, Chad,

I took you right. That is right. Nope, nope, we're good. We're going to leave it there. We're going to leave You said to cut you off. I feel like we're good. Go ahead. Say what you want to say. I will just say this. What you want to say. You were talking about good coaches.

So I look at it from like probably two points of view. I just took every coach who's won a Super Bowl of the list. They're 21 and 18 straight up in the spot as a road favorite third game or later. So above 500, I think it proves your point. We can move on from there. I think an interesting aspect that you guys mentioned talking about. Having is great a confirmation bias. He is fucking best.

I really spend the entire show trying to make sure you guys look smarter at the end. So let's just keep going with that. So Zay Flowers, I think his impact on the field is worth discussing here. So 24.1% of the Ravens target share this year, which is almost 10% higher than the second player on the team, which would be Mark Andrews. And I think the biggest adjustment Lamar might have to go through if Flowers isn't on the field. He has 89 first read or design targets just for Flowers. this year. That's 40 more than the other guy, Mark Andrews, on the team. So without flowers, I just think he's going to have to adjust his first and second reads a little bit. So that could be

interesting. I did look this up. So Tomlin, Owen five straight up in the playoffs as a dog of three or more. He is the only coach with five losses and no win since 2000 in that spot. So what about against a spread in that spot? I can look in a second. But the nine and a half is huge for him. But I have that in my article so I can follow up. Let's keep going here for a second. You guys mentioned Pittsburgh and Baltimore and Baltimore having a lead. This one absolutely blew me away. So historically, it's been difficult for Baltimore to hold the lead against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, the Ravens are two and seven straight up against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game. They are two and five straight up when leading by seven plus points,

which is just unbelievable to me. So the narrative of them getting ahead and holding it, hasn't been great before, but obviously different quarterbacks, different situations. I will give you two more here. So you guys like the Eagles and something that I was kind of surprised by. So under Nick Siriani, Philly is 24 and 2 straight up, 17, 7 and 2 against the spread as a home favorite when leading by 7 plus points at any point in the game. So really not giving away the lead at all. And when that opponent is above 500 in that spot, Sireani is 14 and 0 straight up and 12 and 2 against the spread. So getting a lead shouldn't be an issue in this one, at least not historically.

And then I know you guys like the Rams. So this is just one spot. And the Rams are the only team in this spot this week. So teams that become smaller underdogs. So basically open plus four, close plus three are actually 45 and 20, 69% against the spread over the last 20 years in the playoffs, including 55 and 12 in a six point teaser. That is just the Rams right now, as every other line has held.

steady or gotten higher. I got to say that's some of your best stuff of the season. Wow. I'm peaking. Right time here. This is perfect. Loved it. While I'm reading the ad read for Bet365, see if you can find out how Tomlin is against

the spread in those five games that we just discussed. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150. and bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo good favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5. Get $150 in bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio. Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky, gambling problem.

Call 1-800-gambler or 1-800-gambler. 800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. I'm waiting to see in the chat of Evan. O'4 and 1 against a spread, I apologize. Oh my God. Failing to cover the spread

by six points per game. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night after the Packers Eagles game to recap the first four wild card games. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your

pods. Rate, review, subscribe. We lose five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just. contributed to it out. We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions

because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs.

We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love.

This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, Rory and I welcome a very special guest. When I did a podcast, I wear my sleep mask. I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me,

That's right, the incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for 300 crimes? Yeah. We've got two. I'm ready to go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. If a baby is giggling in the back seat, they're probably happy. If a baby is crying in the back seat, they're probably probably.

hungry. But if a baby is sleeping in the back seat, will you remember they're even there? When you're distracted, stressed, or not usually the one who drives them, the chances of forgetting them in the back seat are much higher. It can happen to anyone. Parked cars get hot fast and can be deadly. So get in the habit of checking the back seat when you leave. The message from NHTSA and the ad council.