The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Conference Championships

Episode Date: January 27, 2025

The Super Bowl stage is now set, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking for a championship three-peat against the Philadelphia Eagles. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are elated with the results, cashing big futures tickets as well as sweeping their selections from earlier in the week. As producer Matt Mitchell picks up the broken pieces of his life and tries to move forward, the guys recap both conference championship contests and quickly preview a Super Bowl LIX matchup full of betting intrigue. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from. some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind,

and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear.

Listen to Sports Slice on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast, And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Live from our Tommy John Home Studios, I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night conference championship round episode. What a day of conference championship games.

It was. We will review the results. of our bets from the day, preview the early lines for the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Simon Hunter's Philadelphia Eagles. I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Chad, how we doing? Brother, your Philadelphia Eagles are in the Super Bowl, man. They are playing the Kansas City Chiefs. What an amazing game between the Bills and the Chiefs.

We will get to that. We will get to the Eagles commanders. We'll get to the early look at our Super Bowl take in a second. The Chiefs opened as one and a half point favorites. We loved the Eagles at minus six today. Never a sweat. Kind of. We love the Chiefs at minus one and a half and the money line.

That game was everything we were hoping it would be. We're having a really nice run here in the play. playoffs. We also both had huge, huge future bets involving the Chiefs and the Eagles. I had the matchup at 28 to 1. So this was a particularly enjoyable sweat. You have the Chiefs beating the Eagles at 55 to 1, but you got so many futures in this matchup that you're feeling pretty great. Just give me your first reaction to the Eagles being in the Super Bowl right now. So many emotions. You know it is, brother. It's like you can't believe it. You fall in love with your team, especially your home team.

And it's the best. It's really the best, and it's the best feeling because you know that nothing lasts forever. Like, you could just be the bottom of the league for the next 23 years, which a lot of diehard Eagles fans that are in their 50s and 60s. That's what most of their life was.

It's only been recent that the Eagles have been this type of team that, you know, can even make these type of run. So, yeah, pretty surreal. Being in the sports book, obviously it's Philadelphia dominant because of the area I live in, you know, literally was in the city at the books

and the amount of just grown men crying, that's the funniest feeling because you just know everyone, you know, we're all fans. We bet on these teams, but we also deep down, it's like, you know, your fan first is, you know,

the money, someone like me, I don't mind bent against it because it's like, it's part of my job, but the normal fan, the everyday worker, you know, that was, you know, everything for them.

So, yeah, I'm going to enjoy it because I know what's up ahead. I'm playing the Chiefs and I know that this could just be my Super Bowl. When the NFC in itself in the Padma Holmes there is a Super Bowl just because this man is so dominant. But yeah, right now, you know, sitting on a 50 burger, what the Eagles just did,

it's like I'm just going to enjoy it. Highest scoring game ever, most points ever scored by a team in the championship game and NFL history. So pretty special group of this team. Double nickel for the Philadelphia. Eagles. And let's also, like, feel so bad for Matt Mitchell. Like, I don't know if that's what losing regular looked like in his head.

that catch at the end was so much closer. We'll get to it. Let's line it up here. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder,

the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now, new Bet365 customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code, favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5. to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads,

totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary, a bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. Before we get to the games, this is really fun.

People love what we're about to do here. We have the new Bet365 Super Bowl prop contest. This is a tradition going back to when I started behind the bets at ESPN with bookmaker Bob Scootchy, the OGs of the podcast will remember this. If you're new to the show, it is such a fun contest. So what happens is we will ask you to send your custom bet live and ready to accept action on bet 365. You have a chance to get your Super Bowl prop up on Bet365's board. I put that in quotes.

You just got to follow some super rules. Okay. the bets must adhere to state gaming commission regulations. Every part of the bet must be settled on the field of play. No, will they show Taylor Swift on TV kind of stuff? It must be on the field of play in the box sport kind of stuff. The winning submissions always have a clever name. For example, last year the winner was,

will Brock Purdy score an octopus, the touchdown plus a two-point conversion? The prop was called the Brocktipus. Eight years ago for the Falcons Patriots, the winner was a prop about Matt Ryan, passing stats called the Millennium Falcon. The winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to come out of the show, talk to me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the Bet365 website. Email those submissions, podcasts at actionnetwork.com.

Matt Mitchell, do we have a podcasts? Sorry. Do we have deadline? Email podcasts at actionnetwork.com. Do we have a deadline of when people have to get these up? We have to submit to Bet365 for approval on Friday. So you'll have this episode in our Tuesday and Thursday episode, but make sure to get those in early enough.

I don't keep you submit 100 of them as long as they all adhere to the Gaming Commission rules. So get them in, we love them. It's a phenomenal contest. People go, like real people are going to bet on these. You're going to get real action on this, and it's super fun. All right. Eagles were six-point favorites.

They were our big balls bet of the week. It was a fascinating day-to-day, Simon. We pointed this out several times, and I talked about this on The Herd with Colin. the public was all over the underdog lower seeds on the road against the most dominant defense in the NFL and against the greatest quarterback other than Tom Brady who's ever lived. In this first game, preponderance of tickets on Jaden Daniels, which is why it sort of became our big balls bed of the week.

one of the key factors for us, we thought Jalen Carter against the interior of the commander's offensive line, especially without Sam Cosmy, was going to be a factor. He blew up the first play of the game against the replacement. But what a game this was.

I mean, there's so much to unpack here. Sequin, the way he audibled, Jalen audibled into that first play that he ran for 60 yards in a touchdown. My feeling about the Eagles is they left a lot of opportunities on the field and there was a moment where it felt like we were going to not lose this game but maybe not cover this game.

No, everyone loved Washington like you were saying, coming to this game and it's the Jason Kelsey song. No one likes us, no one likes us, we don't care, which is actually a Premier League song that Eagles fans just basically stole it their own. it's the truth. No one liked Eagles. Everyone was just betting the commanders.

They're trying to find reasons. I mean, we joked about that kind of regimen that straw as it was like, none of that stuff was logical. The only thing you kept going back to was, well, they have the better quarterback, which hard to argue about after watching that kid just playing that game. I mean, it is incredible how good Jane Daniels is. And, you know, that type of game where that opening drive, they go three for three on fourth downs.

and for some reason the coach kicks the fuel goal, I honestly breathed like a sigh of relief and it was just like, okay, they are a little scared here because that to me was a really shocking moment where it was, yeah, the eagle was exhausted on their first drive. Yeah. And he kicks the three.

Like you said, first play, touchdown Barclay. And basically, you know, like I said, I was at the book, I turned the guy next to you and it's like, this game, if they can't stop Barclay, they're basically what we talked about, they're dead. Like they're going to have to stock the box, which honestly is what the Eagles don't mind teams doing because they can go over top of them. And they haven't had to because the run game has been so strong. And yeah, that brutal beat, anyone that had his over prop, I think he finished with 118, three touchdowns.

Obviously goes under. But, you know, what we talked about kind of played out that Eagles, one of the best running teams in all football. Washington, one of the worst rushing defenses in football. You know, Eagles had seven rushing touchdowns in this game. Yeah. Again, not the show in Dallas Cowboys. Will Shipley had a rushing touchdown. Yeah, Dallas Cowboys had six rushing touchdowns all season.

The Eagles had seven in one game. And, you know, it's people talk about, you know, jailing hurts. They bad mouth them. And I've realized, like, I really did this other day that, I don't know if you remember the movie, shallow how, Chad? Yeah, yeah. Eagles fans are literally shallow how with our quarterback.

Like to us, he's a 10. To everyone else, they see a two or a three. But to us, he's an absolute 10 in every way. And it's like, he just wins. And in that game, you know, he had a couple big time throws. And it's just like, I get why people hate him. I get why they hit the Eagles, but it's like he's been to two Super Bowls. And people just disrespect his name as if Tua could be doing the same thing

for this Eagles team. And it's just, it's not logical. So yeah, I'm happy he showed out big. And it's like, I can't believe it, 55 points in a championship game against, you know, a divisional rival that I expect to be facing for the next five to 10 years. It's a great feeling.

And it played out exactly how we talked, Chad. So it feels good to know the fans got the over and they got the Eagles minus six. So let me ask you this. Because I have so many thoughts on Jalen Hertz. I thought he was having one of the best games I've seen him have. maybe since the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.

You know, he was up and down last year. You went hammed that Pittsburgh game in December, but I get where you're coming from. Yeah, like, you know, and he was, when he was decisive, he was accurate, he was making good throws. But there were so many times, he is a heart attack in the pocket. If he is not getting it out quickly,

you know, he is running backwards, he's running in circles. and I thought Tom Brady did a really good job of pointing out many times where he didn't throw the ball when he had the guy a step open or an opportunity where you just got to let it go. And I want your take like as a fan and as someone who is a football expert, is that an issue? Why do you think he does that? Like, is it an Achilles heel? Am I looking too much into it? laugh at me. It's real. It's just, it's hard to take it serious where it's like, he's in the Super

Bowl, uh, you know. Yes, he's in the Super Bowl, but, but, but they left so much. My notes on the game where they kept leaving opportunities on the field. And when, when they were down, when they were up 3423 and Jake Daniels had the ball, you can't tell me that you felt like, that game was in the bag. It was not in the bag. If Austin Echler doesn't fumble, I am not really confident that the Eagles are going to be able to stop

Jaden Daniels on that drive. I was doing the gambler's math. I had the Eagles four and a half because we bet them right away last Sunday. I'm like, holy shit, I'm not even going to cover the four and a half after being up like 18 points because I had so much,

so little faith in the Eagles' ability to stop Jaden Daniels when he started to get on a roll if not for that fumble. I'm laughing because they scored 55 points and they didn't have a defensive touchdown or a special team touchdown. Yeah, they went on a role.

They went on a huge role. I know, but it's like... They went on a role because they dominated on the ground. Listen. You want perfection and you're just, you're barking up the wrong tree. That's just not, it's not real what you're looking for in life.

And especially here in football, brother. It's like, yeah, do I want Jalen Hertz to be 27 of 28 passing today? would have been pretty sweet, Chad. Didn't I say he had a great game? I said it was probably the best. I know, but you're saying, are you worried that he's not forcing it in there? It's like you haven't figured it out yet.

Jalen Hertz's his whole job is not to lose the game. That's has been his job this entire season. This is Sequan Barkley's team. And you talk to anyone in the Eagles, they tell you the same thing. He's the best athlete we have. He's generational. He's once in a lifetime type of guy.

And it's like, that's what this team is. Don't let Hurts beat you. Let the other team make the mistakes. they did. So yeah, Jane Daniels, you watched him today making all these big time throws. It's like, yeah, that's just not Hurts game. Harts is a second round pick. The guy has weaknesses, but he plays in the system. He's incredible. It's like you can fight, you can question it, but it's like the biggest stat that matters is wins. And there's a bunch of nerds out there say wins aren't QB stats. Have it. Have those people. Okay. Like enjoy not winning games

and having a QB like Justin Herbert. It's, I'm happy for you. Like live on and drink it in. I want a guy like Hertz that wins games. And he can, you know, in those tight moments, he makes big time throws and big time plays. Like that AJ Brown throw, everyone's balls like you, same thing you're talking about.

Everyone got tight. It went into your stomach. Like, oh my God, fourth down. Hertz is taking a shot down 30 yards downfield. We haven't seen that in what a month? Yeah. Throw the ball 30 yards downfield. So I'm with you, Chad.

It's never easy. But, yeah, as an Eagles fan, and some of that bet heavy on them today, I just laugh because it's like that was the perfect game they could play. Like Jane Daniels, like you said, he was so good. He finished, their team finishes with 23 points and that kid played really well in that game.

That's how dominant this Eagles team is. With 23 points. And I feel like his completion percentage might not have been above 55%. 60%, but yeah, I know what you're coming from. No, no, I think he was like, what was he, 27 to 45? Like it wasn't.

29 to 48. So, like, he's crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. He's amazing. But the Eagles defense, when they had to lock it down, they did. And I think I really can't wait to talk about this Chiefs game against the Eagles. And I'm so excited to break it down for two weeks. Like, we got a dream matchup here with a line that is one and a half, maybe moving to two in some places, because the juice is already in that direction.

Money line in some places was 120 and now it's up to 125. The prop for Sequin in the Super Bowl right now, the Russian prop, 112 and a half. Don't forget, now it's up to 114.5, Evan is reporting. Don't forget, we talked about this, you know, and you just said it coming off the top. The prop opened at 127.5 for the NFC title game, went up to 130 and a half, the highest Russian prop ever,

actually closed about 122 or 123 and a half, came down. So I don't mind, I don't mind 112.5 against the Chief's defense that is struggling against the run. Goodness gracious. Tell me before we go to the Chiefs, why are they going for the Tushbush from the two and a half yard line? Honestly, I'd have to see what situation you're talking about. To me, it's just about eating up clock in time. were like that you know they kept having to jump off sides and they just wasted an extra minute or two no but they did like that was they were going for the tush push from the two and a half yard line

and they got stopped they got lucky that there was some kind of i think off sides but that wasn't on purpose and then they had it at the one but multiple times it looked like they were tush pushing from two yards two and a half yards which to me was like the fuck are we doing here it makes sense yeah i the only one i question was they they they they they they from the two yard line when Sequin got him down there and I was like why do you not just give it to Sequin here you're not on the one you're on the two or the three why not give the sayquine instead you just said they they tush pushed yeah two or three times they got in but I think it's just they know they're gonna get a yard or two at a time they just eats up more clock so um yeah

again everyone's talking about easy the tush push is eagles got stopped on it a couple times in that game and same with Josh Allen today like that's why I love when people talk about banning it's like you can stop it you just have the game play and have the right the right time of players to do it so Yeah, pretty insane the fact that, you know, hurts three rushing touchdowns. And I know our guy, Chris Raybon, gave out Saquan three rushing touchdowns plus three, was it plus 350? Raybon gave it out. So, yeah, pretty insane hit by Chris on that Saquan three touchdowns.

Unbelievable game. Thrilled for the Eagles. Thrilled that we bet the Eagles. Thrilled that we got to talk about it all week and feel like, why are people on the commanders this doesn't make sense it feels like it's you know you get a lot of heat a lot of pros and it's just like they're like you guys are too dug in on your futures i'm like no this is like what the definition of being a pro is everyone's telling you you're wrong and you're on the favorites at home getting no respect with the books it really lined up so perfect that's why i love these type of

spots yeah like i i felt so happy to be on the side of the books and against the public and the better overall teams that were favorites at home. Like, you never get that. Normally you're like, all right, I got to take the shittier team that's getting the points. I think there's the value. Like, you never get the privilege of being on the better team that is the favorite because the public is enamored with these transcendent quarterbacks, including Josh Allen. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it

one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Buffalo, Kansas City. Kansas City closes a one and a half point favorite.

By the way, I think if this game kicks off half an hour later, they close at one. The money line moved from 125 down to 1,000, 15 before the game. The chiefs were our Simon says at one and a half. They were our exact decision on the money line. Arrowhead sounded so freaking loud through the TV. Did it not?

Yeah, it was crazy. I mean, going into it, like, I think Stuck had a good tweet about it. There's something the way CBS does it that's different than Fox. I don't know what it is, but they do have better coverage to get you more ramped up. Like, I really felt that in the coverage of the CBS compared to Fox. Again, maybe it's because it's nighttime. That helps too. And I'm with you. I was like so far up heading of that game.

I was so pumped. And this game, God, did it live up to the hype. It felt like in the first half, the bills were so tight, right? They like Josh Allen, that first series, two near interceptions. He had a fumble that he recovered himself. The way they lost control on that touchdown, where they had the personal foul. it just felt like they were really edgy and jittery. And I think that football, that fumbled by Mahomes, they were up, what was it, 10-3, something like that, 7-3,

and they were driving like the 23-yard line, and Mahomes pulled it out on the RPO and the bills recovered. I think that saved the game for them. It might end up being a blowout, if not for that. Because the chiefs were doing whatever they wanted to on offense in the first half. Yeah, it's the type of game when we need to watch two or three more times just because it felt like there was just so much going on in this game. And instant classic, obviously, it's the best feeling ever when you talk about modeling numbers and it comes right on the number you said it should be.

So I said if it was bills plus three, I would have been more than happy to take the plus three. And it wasn't we stuck to our numbers and fuck man, it's hard. Like it's hard to go against Josh Allen. And especially where what we talked about, there's a human element of this. Why everyone's sick of the chiefs. Like people are like, aren't you, you're happier but buddies won? The Chiefs. It's like, why would I like the Chiefs?

I hate the Chiefs. They were literally, I didn't sit for a year. I love the Chiefs. This is exactly what I'm rooting for. I want history. I want dominance. I want Patrick Mahomes to win 10 Super Bowls. I love watching him play.

I said to my kids sitting on the couch, like, I almost got sentimental. Dude, this is magical what we're watching. his ability to see the defense, read the defense, make decisions, and get the ball out of his hands in the smallest windows from the craziest angles. That play at the end of the game to Worthy, like, that was a miracle throw that he made. And it's just like, I hope they win every year that he's a quarterback. I just think it's amazing. Yeah, and it's why I basically told you before the year, if I wasn't putting any money on anyone else in the AFC, except the chiefs because I said exactly what you just said there.

Mine is the part of loving this guy. It was more so of this is historical. We're seeing something so special, so unique. The fact they can keep all these players, all their coaches on that staff. It's very unique group. And if they get you at home in the playoffs, they're going to get you.

It's incredible. And it really is a chess match. Like, you know, the bills, they totally flipped that game at one point, right? They basically got the touchdown before half, get the three and out they needed to start the second half, or not three and out, but they punted the Chiefs. They go right down and score again.

Chiefs next possession, they punted again. And it was like, oh, this is happening. This is lining up for the bills. But no, they just wait. They wait. That fourth down play, you know, I get Bill's fans being pissed. I mean, you could go either way on that one that, you know, Josh Allen got that first down, did he not?

But Josh Allen didn't get it. Mahomes got the ball. Like you just said, knows what he needs to do, right? and what he needs to do is he runs the ball in the playoffs. That's the biggest difference we've seen in his career. There's something they do, Andy reading him, they talk about. Like that design run for that last touchdown. Yeah. Vintage, vintage, Andrew Reed, smart play call,

bills and see it coming because why would they? They've never run that play this season. I guarantee you, we can go back and look. They didn't run that play lead blocker, Travis Kelsey. So, yeah, it's the whole reason we bet them. We loved it. We loved our spot, our position on it. And yeah, it's like you just said,

It's history. Like, we've never seen anything like it. And anytime you think, oh, someone's finally got him, like, before you jumped on here, we were talking before everyone else got on it, it's like, Josh Allen had the ball down three. I saw it. I could see it happen to him driving the field, getting the touchdown. And that's how you beat Mahomes. That's how you have to do.

You can't tie him there. You can't kick the three there because you're going to somehow lose that game. You had to drive the field, get the touchdown. Like, they just couldn't do it. Well, they did it here tonight. telling you, that one had some sting on it. Yeah, heartbreak, obviously, for Bill's fans. But yeah, if you're a Chiefs better, someone like us,

it's the best feeling because you just keep trusting the process. You trust the numbers, not only the models, but the trends, right? The trends were all over this Chief's team in this spot. It's just, it's a unique spot. It's my home's at home below 40 degrees. It's just automatic, basically, from here on out. So I'm glad we learned our lesson, Chad, last year, because we went against them.

got burned in that Ravens game. And since then, we've just been on this Chiefs team. They've been paying us big time in this playoff run. Andy Reid knew what he was in for when he went forward on fourth and one from their 39 midway through the second quarter. I love to call. That ended with the Xavier Worthy touchdown, by the way. Let's give some shoutouts. Unconvince me, obviously you had the Chiefs minus one and a half and you had the Eagles minus six.

Sean Croner had Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. If you listen to the six-pack with Stucky and Raybon, the Action Network podcast, Raybon on that show gave out the Eagles to have more punts than the commanders, that cashed. He gave out, as you said, Sequin three plus touchdowns, that cashed. It's been a banner playoffs for Action Network analysts. It really has. Like it was a tough season, but the playoffs have been phenomenal.

Hopefully people have been paying attention. The bills had six, by my count, turnover worthy plays that they kept the ball on. They had those two near picks from Allen, three fumbles from Allen, all of which he recovered, and the one by Ray Davis. And it was all going their way.

I mean, they scored two fourth-down touchdowns. Like you talk about, their fumbles bounced their way, right? Josh Allen picked it up. I think their rookie running back Davis fumbled, bounced right to him. Like they definitely had bounces going their way in that game. So I almost feel like, you know,

let's give a minute to that fourth down call. I almost, and also on a previous fourth down, same drive, Josh Allen fumbled the ball and recovered it. It almost felt like karma. There had to be, if we're thinking and speaking mathematically,

there was regression on that fourth down play, right? Even though it was a judgment call by the officials, not every single thing, not every fumble, not every fourth down was going to go the bill's way. No, definitely. But like I said, though, they felt like the team of destiny,

this bill's team, that they were finally going to do it. And they were getting the bounces, and, you know, the chiefs weren't getting those tic-tack calls that they're used to, right? It felt like, you know, a lot of the calls were not going their way. And the Eagles game, it felt like every call was going the Eagles way.

Like, they're a home team. They were definitely getting their refs on the home side. Did not feel like that way in the Chief Spills game. That felt like a pretty clean game, both sides. You know, again, the Josh Allen thing I can't get over is he's out there with freaking Mack Hollins making this dude, you know, making these big time catches and these insane moments. And it's like, it's just incredible what Josh Allen's done.

with the bunch of just trash. And, you know, him and James Cook. That's just something. Yeah, it's just something incredible to build off of like that run, Cook had and that fourth down. You know, like they said, the top tier is Derek Henry and Sequin. And then right below that are guys like Cook. Like just absolute game changers, incredible running back.

And yeah, like we say all the time, brutal for Bill's fans. I know they don't want to hear. We probably have two, two Bill's fans even left listening to this show after being against us all week on the Chiefs. But you know, you got Josh Allen every year. Like I said, this is to me one of the worst teams he's going to have.

You had 70 million dead cap space. You know, there's just so much to work with going forward. But, you know, Joe Brady, the fact he's turning down jobs right now, it's going to be all good, Bill's fans. But obviously, oh, and four in the playoffs against Mahomes, it's brutal. You're winning in a lifetime generational talents running into the Michael Jordan of the sport. It is brutal.

I get the hurt right now coming from the girls. This is a, you know, it's Carl Malone and the John Stockton and the youth hugged as and like, you're so good. You can't I get by this. Just the misfortune of being a generationally great quarterback playing against a historically great quarterback. All right. The look ahead lines for the Chiefs and the Eagles is one and a half, one and a half, Kansas City minus one and a half. That is what it opened at. As I said, this thing was moving before we even came out in the air.

I bet it at one and a half. I also bet the chiefs on the money line at minus 120. The line now at Bet365 is minus two. We're not going to go into the deepest, deepest breakdown, but what are your initial thoughts? Yeah, like you just said, If you want to know what the pros are going and what models are going to have this ad,

I said it last week. I had the Chiefs favorite. So you want to grab Chiefs minus one and a half now? I got no issue with it if that's your position. But yeah, I have so much I need to dive into here and really break down. And, you know, obviously we all know the deal. Eagles are the better team.

They're going to be a model as a better team than most people. It's just Mojom's is different. This Chief's team is different. And computers just don't understand it. And that's the toughest part here where it's like you kind of need to really dig into a lot of stuff that's not normal to dig into. And, you know, I'm looking forward to a lot of phone calls here because it's going to be really insane breaking this down with a lot of guys this week just because it's so opinion-based. And we knew that this number was probably going to move.

I'm shocked to see it's already moving to two already. So pretty interesting that respected people are already taking their money, not taking out of it. Like we say at the time, you're not cashing that ticket for cash. You're cashing it and rolling it over. So not shocking. You know, we talked about. We really love and respect to this Chiefs team. I bet heavy on them in this spot.

I'm not going to take out that cash. I'm going to roll it over, most likely, on the Chiefs. So, yeah, if you want to take that side, take it. I'm not in a rush because it feels like by the time I get off this call, I'm going to miss the one and a half. So, yeah, I'm excited to break this one down. It's going to be a fun two weeks here coming up. So you haven't bet the Chiefs minus one and a half yet?

No, because you know the deal. I told you. I got 5K to win over 300K. Yeah. Like I got, I have such an insane position and, you know, like my phone has just been blown up nonstop because not only did our, you know, our show do well. My clients, my bosses, like everyone, we're all living the dream right now. Like my two, my two futures were Eagles and Chiefs both hit NFC title bets, AFC title bets, both cashed. And yeah, the future market right now, you know, it's rare chat. We're going to come on here and give out 55 to 1 in August that hit. So. And 28 to 1s. My man. So yeah, it's it's a nice spot to be in right now. So that's why I'm not rushing, brother. Like if I didn't have a position on it, I'm with you, I probably would be rushing. I can be patient here because I do want to really dive into this one. And I'm just saying to the fans this show, if you didn't grab the plus 200, grab the minus one and a half right now if you want to.

All right. We will talk a lot more about this game over the next few weeks. We will have our rotation where Simon and I are going to break this down. We will also have our regular props breakdown, all the good stuff that we look to and love for Super Bowl week. This was our final Sunday night episode of the season. What a freaking season. Thanks to everybody for joining us. What I loved about this season is our audience were always bigger on the days we got crushed. The sick bastards. On the days when we did okay, nobody wanted to hear us talk about when we did well, but they loved hearing it when we had to come on in pure misery. But we appreciate every single person who came on with us on Sundays.

Our next episode is live on Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel will be the first of our four Super Bowl episodes. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods. Wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, we lose five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

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