The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 10

Episode Date: November 11, 2024

After wild games for both the Steelers and 49ers, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter settle in to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 10. Together they talk about a big victory for Buffalo, a last-second blocked field goal in Kansas City and so much more. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Houston. Plus, we get their early looks at NFL Week 11.  And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to The Clivert Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode. We will review our favorite five picks that we put into the. favorites contest. We will dissect why we left some games out. We will preview the early lines we already like for week 11. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hey, Chad. How are we doing?

Brother, there were points today where we were likely to be four and no. We were likely to be 0 and 4. We were likely to be two and two with the two teams that we lost, that we lost with. We were likely to be two and two with the two teams that we won with. As it stands, we are exactly two and two. Somehow today, Simon, the streak of favorites covering, road favorites covering, has come to an end. At least that was true in the early window today. Reminder, road favorites, road favorites heading into today's games had been 16 games over 500. They were one and three in the early window. The favorites were, road favorites.

The bad news, we faded the one team that won and we backed one of the teams that lost. Those are our two losses on the day. We'll get to all of that. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network. YouTube page as a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365.

And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet365. must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800 gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa.

Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. Let's start with the road favorite. We faded because when we chatted this morning to decide on our final picks, this was the one game. you were all of a sudden having second thoughts about, which completely threw me. Totally surprised me. I'm talking about the Indianapolis Colts plus four and a half

against the Buffalo Bills. That was the one road team that covered in the early window. Give me your thoughts and why all of a sudden you got antsy. Other than Josh Allen, Joe Flacko, but it was just Josh Allen. It was just the Josh Allen part of it where I was like, are we overthinking this one here? And clearly we did.

The bills make me want to, kick your heels up and throw your hands up and throw your head back and show on now. The better QB, even though it wasn't a great day for him, he was struggling. At one point, you know, if you took away that pick six, it would have been a 13, 10 game. The Colts would have had the ball. But he did throw that pick six. So 17, 13, Joe Flacco had to keep throwing the ball.

That was not a position we wanted to be. We wanted them to run the ball. And instead, they had to pass the ball because they were behind, basically from the getco. And, yeah, Chad, it's a period. Joe Flacko has turned into a pumpkin since he's become the starter. This is the Joe Flacco we all knew in love, who had retired. That couldn't get a job with any team in NFL. And then Cleveland gave him a job.

And he's been on a, he went on a crazy run. He's back to what he was before that crazy run. And that's unfortunate. Because it was a good number. And, you know, at four and a half, I like the spot as well. But at the simplest terms, the simplest base of it, it was just like, are we overthinking this betting against Josh Allen here? And yeah, we did.

We did that. So look, to put a finer point on it, I have a little bit of a different take on this game because it generally went. If we're taking out sort of the randomness of turnover, exactly as we thought it would go. The Colts dominated on the ground. When they weren't turning the ball over, they were the not better side,

but equal side in that game. There were two drives that mattered. Look, Jonathan Taylor, by the way, average 5.4 yards per carry, had more than 100 yards. Like, this team was grinding it. And don't forget, Joe Flacco throws the pick six. Then they're in the red zone.

he throws another interception. After that, they were still up 1310 in the first half. So to me, this game came down to Josh Allen, as you said, and it was in the back of my head while I was watching Josh Allen do Josh Allen things because on the second to last drive of the first half, Josh Allen throws a 34-yard bomb to Dawson Knox, and then next play runs at 13 yards for a touchdown. The Colts have to punt on the next drive, and here comes Josh Allen.

It's second and 10 from his 27. He's rolling right. His heels get clipped twice. Keeps his balance before he goes out of bounds. Classic Josh Allen flick, Mack Hollins, 44 yards. They get a field go. All of a sudden, they're up 20 to 13.

And like, it's still, the Colts were in it the whole time. It's 20 to 30. in the third quarter, they're driving fourth and inches. Joe Flacco gets sacked. You're right, it was Josh Allen. You're right, it was Joe Flacco. But if not for Josh Allen and Joe Flacco, we were right there.

You even mention you got strip sack too, Flacco. Like, he just, three turnovers, he just killed us. And we talk all the time. You bet ugly dogs. You cannot lose the turnover battle. And not that I knew that we were dead. when he threw that pick six, but I knew eventually Josh would figure it out. It took him a half, like you said, he was bad to start the game.

But once he gets in a groove, I mean, we joke all the time. This guy is top three, top two talent in the league for a reason. He's incredible. And yeah, definitely a bad bet. It's almost unfair what he can do. So good for the bills. Good for Matt Mitchell. Yeah, good for you, Matt Mitchell.

Really excited for him. Rucking our wounds before we come on the show. That was kind of, by the way, Matt Mitchell, like, I'm the producer. I don't ever make comments about your picks, but I knew that was a bad pick. Yeah. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Matt Mitchell. Really give us a lot of confidence before the show.

Let's go, Matt. All right. So one of the road favorites that we were all in on, we were so excited about, we're like, this is the spot. San Francisco at Tampa, five and a half when it opened, six and a half in the contest, Tampa coming off a physical overtime game in Kansas City traveling back. San Francisco getting Christian McCaffrey back. And this started out so perfectly for us, Simon. We were nailing it.

I mean, it did. It did. Well, you're talking about when they're up 10 nothing, 10.3? Yeah. Yeah, but it still, it never felt right. But you're right. At the end of the day, I mean, we're going to talk about blame this kicker, but the red zone struggles continued though. That's what it's just bumming me out. It's like they just can't complete these drives. They dominated Tampa in every way. I mean, Tampa, they're so good at making the plays when they need to.

That's the kind of team they are. If you let them hang into this game, they'll steal her from me. I mean, they almost did with the chiefs the week before. It's just they're really great at playing, making teams play down to their level and keeping a minute. But they also got crazy lucky. I mean, we had the muff kick. Like you said, they were dead.

And they muff that punt. And, um, you know, easy to, to open the second half. The, the, the, the, the, the bucks were down. And it went three and out to start the second half. They went three and out. Yeah. And the 49ers muffed the punt. And then all of a sudden, the bucks are back in the game.

And it's like, come on. Still though, doesn't matter at the end of the day. Fucking moody. Like this guy misses three kicks and just kills us. Like, it's just so brutal when we play these numbers, these favorites. and these key numbers and we don't get the lucky breaks where it's like, come on. Like this is the guy's worst career day. It's the happens to be the day we bet on him.

So yeah, I was bummed by the end of the day, we should have taken the five and the half and we didn't get the five and a half. We got greedy and thought we were smart on the book and took the six and a half. Right at the end of the day, the five and a half was probably the right number, right? Like he makes two of those kicks at least. They win by six. The five and a half was the right number. and we got greedy taking that six and a half.

Well, look, even if we had taken the five and a half, even with all that, don't forget, the Bucks had a fourth down in their own territory. They went for it. Nick Bosa is hanging on Baker Mayfield, literally hanging on the guy. It's one of the best defensive ends in all of football, one of the best defensive players in all of football. Baker Mayfield is such a fucking baller. he's stiff-arming the dude

bragging him as he rolls right and he completes a miraculous fourth down pass. If he doesn't do that there was enough time that even if the Niners had gained 10 yards they were going to have to kick a field goal. Like they were going to be conservative but the Bucks had enough

timeouts that you and I both had the five and a half I was still like crossing my fingers as Baker is about to go down but before he completes that pass and like that weird slow motion moment where your entire bet is in the balance, I was thinking in all those moments, it's like in a movie when everything goes slow motion. And like, you're flashing.

You're like, all right, this is going to be incomplete. This is how much time is left. This is like the 10,000 hours of betting. You know the situation. And I'm like, okay, we're going to get the ball back. We're going to have to kick a field goal. We'll be up by six. We're going to lose this contest, but at least we'll win the five and a half.

fucking Baker. Like not only completes that pass, but then there's like three straight penalties. The bucks tie it. I'm like, okay, great. 41 seconds left. Maybe we can get the six in overtime. And then Jake Moody finally does his job. Like that was excruciating.

That was an excruciating beat. It is. But like giving more love to Baker, he is shown me so much right now these last couple of weeks. Like to go toe to toe with the chiefs on the road, then come home, like you said, a short rest and just keep his team in it where he's just dragging these guys across the finish line. It's crazy. Like no Godwin, no Evans. No. Like you should just lay down and die in this matchup and he just didn't go away. It's pretty crazy that, not that Sam Donald's turned back into a pumpkin, but you know what I mean. Take away Jefferson and his other weapons and see how Sam Donald is on the Vikings now. And it's just Baker is not that. It's pretty crazy. He's like Baker might actually last year for the next five to eight years in this league, which is just crazy to think where he was at.

He was on three different teams in a year span. And now he's like a legit starter in this league. So yeah, brutal loss for Tampa. That's kind of game. They steal that one there. They could easily be a seventh seed for the playoffs. And now it feels like they're slowly fading away from this playoff race. I wonder if there was a poll of quarterbacks who were respected by players like where Baker would land.

You know it's going to be Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and Patrick Holmes, you know, and Lamar. But they also got to love Baker. I would not be surprised, even if he's not a top 10 quarterback in terms of talent. He's a guy that everybody wants to play with. Here's the question we have to ask ourselves. You're projecting a little bit about Tampa Bay now. What do we think of the Niners at this point? They are not a team that like can get into any rhythm yet and was today, okay, this is,

your first game back with McCaffrey, maybe you're being a little conservative. Kyle Shanahan said in the halftime interview, they're pulling back a little bit on his snaps because it was so hot. They didn't want to burn them out in that first game. But like, what do we think of the Niners right now? They're a tough team to get a read on just because the Red Zone struggles. And it's like, yeah, I want to fade them as these big favorites. But we know if they put together, they can roll teams by 21.

Like that's just the hard thing to say is what are we getting week to week? Because right now it isn't consistent and trying to figure it out isn't consistent. Like one week they're great and dominant like they were against that Cowboys team, right? They came on that second half when they were down 10-6th, scored 21 straight, right? Three drives, three touchdowns. And when their kick-up field goes like this and let teams hang in, we've seen this season, they've lost a lot of those games. Like they could have lost today.

If Baker makes that completion, not going to overtime. I mean, they probably win this game as crazy as that sounds. So, yeah, they're a tough team to get rid of. We'll talk about their line coming up, but I'm assuming they're going to be a big favor this upcoming week. It is a big, big number against Seattle. Touchdown favorite. We're going to get into that one for sure.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman. recommended it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories, that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

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Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, literally. But just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS. on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

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All right, let's talk about a couple games we won. Like, when we got to near halftime, I was convinced, all right, Pittsburgh's going to blow this. the Colts are going to cover. Jesus. The Niners are going to find their way. But this game with Pittsburgh kind of in the end, like ended up exactly the way we thought it would. We just had to get there.

We survived a failed fake punt from the Steelers 10 when they were winning. We survived a fumble by the Steelers on the commander's one yard line when they were about to go in for the go-ahead score. We survived Jaden Daniels multiple times. we were saved. This is why football was so great. A Russell Wilson moonball to the newly acquired

and vilified by Aaron Rogers, how lucky he got out of New York, Mike Williams, who made a Willie Mays over-the-shoulder catch for the game-winning touchdown. It was Chef's Kiss. Yeah, it was really fun. And, you know, of all the games you picked this week,

this is one that, like, both of us were a little hesitant about it because of the Jane Daniels factor, but I never really wavered. I loved it. But like you said, we both bet heavy on the three. I bet heavy on the three and the two and a half. And I think we were talking in the morning, it already moved a one to half or two. And it's like, should we fade this laid steam?

I remember not that you had cold feet about it, like you were just a little unsure of it. I did. It was like, it just felt like to me, Simon, like the rah-rah spot that we know we have to bet that feels a little bit cursed going to. against Jaden Daniels because everybody else was betting it too. We'll never know, will we? You know I'm a degenerate. But it really came down just to the number.

And the two and a half, I mean, once again, the two and a half, how important it is, it was going to land on it. Like if Daniels drove the field, got that fuel goal, it lands on two. And it's like, no worries. That's why we always talk about how this is the most important number of football. I really should try to make some money off this two and a half thing. I feel like we're the only ones that beat it to death. But it's such a key number now in football.

And, yeah, that's the definition of a Tomlin spot. And I'm with you that the, I never lost faith. Even when we were down, I never lost space, but the fumble at the one. And again, this is coming off all these missed kicks on the 49ers. I'm just like, oh, my God. Oh, my God. Are we really about to be one in three, or we should be three in one? And luckily, like you said, got the moon ball from Russell Wilson.

And Pittsburgh, I hate that I doubted them. I mean, I said it was a small bet to take their under before the season, but Tomlin got that over all those years with no quarterback, and we've seen what he can be now with just not even a great quarterback, but someone that at least can be consistent back there. And yeah, he put his neck off for Russell Wilson, and it's paid off. I mean, they're what, seven and two now? I've had to look at their record.

They're seven and two, Simon. That's crazy. Like they're a game away now from going over their win total. They're seven and two, and they're three and no straight up against the spread as a dog. and they're in first place in their division. Right. Yeah, it's crazy. You know, and obviously they've got a huge game coming up.

Their schedule gets brutal from here on out. I mean, that was obviously no easy game either, but it's just that was a huge win. Like I said, that's, that win dictates if the commanders win that game, they could easily have won the NFC. They still can, obviously. They play the Eagles on Thursday. But Pittsburgh now, like you just said, they're in the driving position of their division now. that's just a huge win. They got Baltimore this week.

Obviously, they'll be home underdogs against the Ravens. We're going to talk about that one too. So the one thing I want to say about this is it was a weird game because it felt like we were dominating the whole game, except for a 16-play 91-yard drive by Jaden Daniels to end the first half, and then an opening drive to score a touchdown. That drive, like, and we talk all the time, He is so good, though.

Like, that drive was not vintage Payton Manning, but it felt like that. Like, this kid in a two-minute drill, it's something special. And it's just, when you watch, you just know. And it's like, I know I hate that he's in my favorite team's division, but as something that just loves football, it's like, man, I'm going to enjoy this for the next 10, 15 years. James Daniels is just something special to watch.

He is amazing. He's just so good. But that was a really sweet victory for us. Yay Steelers. Yeah, rah, rah. All right, Atlanta, New Orleans, New Orleans plus three and a half. Let's give it up for Saints interim head coach and special teams coach, Darren Rizzy. Because after the game, Darren Rizzi admitted that when he got to the stadium,

he went to use the crapper in the coach's locker room, the head coach's crapper, and he stopped it up. And the first thing he thought to himself was, this is going to be a crappy day. That's what he admitted post-game. And the truth is, we love an interim coach with a sense of humor who also covers.

Yeah, and, I mean, you just saw it. It was just, he was, I love first time head coaches, right? Because he's so emotional and silent. Every play, he's living and dying. I mean, every time they miss a kick, he was going berserk which cracked me up and it's like man I love there's still guys like this coaching like not the boring always kind of pissed off guy on the side like literally guy having

fun with real emotions but that was a total spot like that same team is so bad and they were so good in this game in so many different ways defensively they stepped up their car's deep ball was incredible and another play that I thought we were dead on was Kumar dropping that easy walk in touch the end of the game. Yeah. And all I can think of. Just like context, they had a third and one. They complete, they get a first down and it's over.

Alvin Kamara does not have anybody within 20 yards of him. And he, and he drops the ball. Just drops it. I thought, oh, fucking A. It's going to end 2420. Or it's going to go to overtime and we're going to lose 2620. No, I definitely felt the 2420. It's like, you just gave.

Kirk, the exact life he needed. The defense is tired. They'll be able to get it here. And now the defense really stepped up. I mean, I only give up 17 points of this high flying Atlanta team. And, you know, Robinson had an incredible game. I don't know if you catch a couple of his touchdowns, but yeah. He was sick.

Incredible. And, like, that was the main game I had on my main TV. You know, that was like my favorite bet today. Yeah. Convinced me. And it's like, you know, feeling good, right? They started out, Saints looking great. And then they're not doing anything.

second half. I think they only scored three points in the whole second half and we still held onto the cover. So really fun, sweat bet. We might take a week off from Ben the Saints team. You think? Because right now they're going to be three point home favorites against the Cleveland Browns. So it might actually not be a game we take off in which we have to bet the return of James Winston. That's true. To New Orleans in a revenge game for getting shuttled out of town. This was, a huge luck game, the biggest luck game board for the luck rankings. And it almost played out exactly like that. The Falcons missed multiple field goals. Talk about, you know, your fate being on the foot of kickers. That included Young Wai Koo missing the game tying kick with 630 left in the game.

We got a little bit back because of the Alvin Kamara drop. So it was a little bit equal. I wouldn't have mind of making it, though, because I told you, I was worried about that touchdown. So him making the field goals would have been nice because they would have just been up three. And I'd be like, okay. Like now we have Derek Carr taking those deep shots.

And if he misses, who cares? We still cover our number. But, yeah, I had a decent amount on their money line as well, especially in our money line around Robin. And I thought we would get there with the same. When they put up three in the second half, It's like I didn't feel like we deserved it or even had the chance to get it in there. But once again, their defense really stepped up that Saints team.

And we talk all the time. That's a difference of having a coach you like and you want to play hard for. And that felt like a game where the team played hard for that coach where there's some other games we could talk about if you want where it just felt like guys simply quit on their team and their coaches. Last stat for you. The Saints averaged 10.76 yards for passing attempt. That's crazy. That is insane.

And shout out to Nick Giffon, by the way, who not only had this in luck rankings, also had the Cowboys Eagles Under in the Luck rankings, also had the Jaguars Vikings in the Luck rankings. Yeah, the under. Also had he talked about this on Convinced Me this morning. If you're not watching, you're missing because he had Derrick Carr under half an interception in this game. and had a great breakdown about how the Falcons can't get pressure. So when Carr isn't pressured, he's less likely than the league average to throw an interception. All right.

We just talked about some teams that really quit. And so that's going to be impacting how we think about them going forward. We have the Rams minus one and a half tomorrow night. Thank God. Our last game out was the Jets minus two and a half. You want to talk about that for a second? Swinging and a miss. That was a bad one.

And it's like, typical where like you always joke about you getting bullied, but I wish I could have dug in my feet on it, but I got where everyone was coming from and what their view was. And I should have trusted my instincts and thought this line should be three with Arizona. The books had hung a bad line.

Instead, I went against that. Thought I had made a bad read, that the professionals were smart on it. And they weren't. That is a team that has simply quit in every way. And Arizona, the Kyler experience, when he's on, he is on. Like in that game, I think at one point he was 20 for 21 passing. Like, he was really locked in.

He completed 17 straight passes, new Arizona Cardinals record. He might have completed more, but that's when I saw the record. No, he was really impressive. And, you know, we always joke. Like, you can tell a lot from the early in the game how two teams are. They drove the field, got two touchdowns. Jets drive the field, get two field goals. And like we always say, it's over from that point for it.

I think they eventually went up 21 to 6. And offensively, they could have done whatever they wanted Arizona. They just looked like such a better team. Defensively, we talked about it. Like they're a team of no names. I mean, they have booted Baker, obviously, but yeah, Gannon's really turned that defense around into his identity of, they give up yards, but they don't surrender to those touchdowns.

And they've kind of had that identity this whole season. So impressive, it's what, four straight wins for him now? the Cardinals and Kyler. So I keep waiting there for it to fall the other way, but it's not happening. This is a legit team they deserve to be winning the NFC West right now. Like they're the best team in that division, no doubt. Six and four.

Two things. One, anytime you say Buda Baker, he's one of the best defensive players in football. And this year he's sort of playing like it. I always feel whenever I hear my kid and I, whenever we're watching these games, we're always like, you know, So and so, college.

John Simpson, college. And we'll mention like the most random people to see if we can get it right. He said Buda Baker. And in my head, I'm like, Buda Baker, the way he plays, he should have gone to LSU or Alabama. I'll open it up to the YouTube chat as well as Evan to see if anyone can get the right college for Buda Baker. Speaking of teams, wow, someone just got it, Washington. It's right. Speaking of teams that quit, boy, those Dallas Cowboys,

thank God we didn't have a conversation about putting them in the contest. No, and I won't even tell people the other game you were trying to get in there because you were losing your goddamn mind. No, no, no, you're right. Don't even say it. Don't even say it. I was tempted by the Titans. All week we had avoided the Titans.

I was tempted by the Titans just because I was going to mention it was the one game that Nick Giffin and the Luck Rankings completely whiffed on. And all week, like, he had been hyping it in the Slack channel. I was saying, this is gross. We're not going to do it. He talked about it to convince me. We avoided it. I'm proud of us.

So good for that. You were like, I know it's gross. Let's just put it in. It's gross. But let's just stick it in there. It wasn't that cavalier. It was. It was more like, if we're going to take one out, you said,

If we're going to take one out, you'd rather put the jets in. I said, really? Over the Titans? And we ended up leaving it as it is with the Rams for tomorrow night. The one game that I feel like we missed on, and we just sort of were cowardly, even though we handicapped it perfectly, was the Broncos. We nailed it. Yeah, that was really fun.

I mean, we didn't even talk about that. That was by far the most insane game of the day. As much I want to take a victory lap on Dallas sucking and the Eagles winning. I don't want to punch down right now. Our producer Giff knows. He doesn't need it. He doesn't care. I don't think the Cowboys care right now.

They're just like, yeah, whatever. We'll get a good draft pick. Yeah, like, you know, Kansas City Chiefs, we joke all the time. They're gonna get caught by some team, but they just find a way. And what was it? Did they get, was Denver up 143 at one point?

Yeah. Okay, there was something like that. They were up, I can't remember what it was, they were definitely, yeah, it was 14 to 3, I think. They're beating the crap out of them. And somehow Spags makes the adjustments. Bo Nix, who I think he started the game, you know, thrown for 192 yards of two touchdowns at that point.

They figured him out and they shut it down. I don't think he scored another point the rest of the game, right? They won 16, 14. They did. Yeah, even on their worst day, which was today, like we talked about, they came off a short week overtime game. They looked sluggish. They looked tired.

they did not play well still play the full game and that's what's so special about this Chief's team and you know we joke all the time about that Brady run with that perfect team

and the pressure you feel that that team was not coming off of anything like this is a team coming off two Super Bowls now they're perfect nine and oh this Kansas City team

it is truly mental how special this team is and everything between the coaching and the players everything I know we're going to keep doing what we've been doing is we take Mahomes as a short favorite and we fade him as a big dog and I'm with you I'm pissed me to have it in there because it just it went right into we talked about with him he plays these ugly teams close and he beats up on the good teams like that's the thing about Mahomes it's it's bizarre like the 49ers they beat the crap out of them they put really good against the Ravens that game today they did not play good it was tough in every way the Denver is all over them and still they found a way and And yeah, you can say they got lucky, but that was a blocked field goal.

That's not luck. That's a coaching scheme. It's something they saw on tape and they attacked it. So, yeah, that was probably the most fun game. That was the game I definitely jumped out of my scene and shouted because I was like, holy shit, I can't believe they blocked that. Because I thought they were dead too, just like the announcer. So pretty crazy, Chiefs fans.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me. Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skisks. hits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picket here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you're just so you're not. But just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast,

Learn the Hardway with me, your host. and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations

with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it

and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust.

I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. When you listen to podcasts about AI and tech and the future of humanity, the hosts always act like they know what they're talking about, and they are experts at everything.

Here, the Nick Dick and Poll Show, we're not afraid to make mistakes. What Kugler did that I think was so unique. He's the writer-director. Who do you think he is? I don't know. You meet the president? You think Canada has a president. You think China has a president?

Does law a russet. God, I love that thing. I use it all the time. I wrap it in a blanket and sing to it at night. It's like the old Polish saying, not my monkeys, not my circus. Yep. It was a good one. I like that saying.

It is an actual Polish saying. Yeah. It is an actual Polish saying. Better version of Play Stupid Games, win stupid prizes. Yes. Which, by the way, wasn't Taylor Swift, who said that for the first time. I actually, I thought it was. I got that wrong.

Listen to the Nick Dick and Paul show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, well, let's use that to transition into the week 11 games. Reminders, Simon and I are two and two heading into Monday out of football. We're on the Rams at minus one and a half in the contest. The numbers moved up, obviously. Sharp and Shirek. And by the way, that ultimately was the factor. Like, we liked the number on the Rams at one and a half. It was two and a half in the contest this morning. So we decided to lock in that closing line value. Week 11, I don't even want to say the games I like because the game that I would. want to talk about is the game that you just mentioned. The Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, the Chiefs are one-point favorites. Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. Everything says, of course we want to take the bills. Yet we can't because we're going to have to take Patrick Mahomes as a one-point favorite on a now 15-game winning streak with a score differential in their undefeated

season so far of 56 points, which is the lowest score differential of any team that has ever started undefeated through this many games. It's why we bet against the Chiefs this past week

because they are not blowing teams out. But like, the fuck do we do here, Simon? This is easy bet. I am on Bet 316 in New Jersey, the line has flipped to plus one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number on the Chiefs. We talk about it.

You don't think when the homies is the dog, don't ever think it. You take the number. So I could have been talked into this with the bills were the dog. That's where the value would have been. The professionals are ever coming. They've already hit this number. It's plus one and a half right now for this Chief's team. Give it to me.

I mean, if I could put more than a thousand bucks on a teaser, this would be a huge teaser play for me. it's seven and a half on this chiefs team. But unfortunately, that's not gonna be happening for a next, at least two or three days. So I'll grab it early, this chief's one and a half. I'll grab as much as I can. Even if they keep going up, like we've seen it before, right, it was like that 49er scenario.

They got the two and a half by kickoff. So maybe I'll get a little greedy and wait. Maybe this more bills money will come in, but we don't overthink these spots. We take Mahomes the dog, even if we lose this game, long term, it's a winner. Yeah, I can't argue with it, even if they were a,

one point favorite, I still probably would have played the Chiefs. We know this Bill's team, though. That's another thing I was pissed off today. We talked about, you bet the bill is against bad teams and nothing to stand out more this year. They've just beat up on bad teams this year.

But we said they struggle against good teams. This year when they've played good competition, they've struggled against them. Trying hard not to ever think this one, because I am with you. I don't want it right away. I wanted to be on the bills because I thought we were going to get them as a dog.

But no, the professionals or the public, whoever came in early is dictated. this happy to bet this chief's team a plus one and a half right now. I know the right side is the winning side. Shout out scooch, but the Colts were the right side

in that game. They cover that game if they don't have two interceptions, a fumble, and a forward to that ends in a sack. Oh, that's the... And by the way, and a touchdown to Josh Downs, their best

receiver that he drops that is a walk-in touchdown. I agree with Matt Mitchell, who says it's a ludicrous take. What does Matt Mitchell know? We also mentioned the Niners. Niners are seven-point favorites at home against Seattle. I don't know that I've seen enough from the Niners at this point to make them a seven-point favorite in the division against a team coming off a bye.

crazy it's crazy because even if they covered today said they did cover i would make this line like six and a half but they didn't cover it so it's like how do you not make this line five and half it's seven it opens at seven so i guess i'm a sucker i'm missing something here i'll take the seven right away like you just said who are this 49ers team to be getting that seven i know the seahawks have been bad and everything we we get it but like chad just said they're coming off a by in a divisional game that's a must win for the Seahawks team. They are so desperate. They know this is their season in this game.

So yeah, the seven, this has to come down. Is this really going to go up to seven and a half? Is this really going to keep going up? I don't think so. I think it's going to go down by Tuesday. So I'm with you on that one. I'll grab the seven now. The other game that interested me,

I know we just talked about it, I don't know how we don't take Cleveland plus three against New Orleans. It's in New Orleans. I know it's James, but I don't have a fear of that one. Like the come down for the Saints, it's still the Saints. It's still a team that just lost seven in a row. It's a team that had the perfect spot.

And still, by the way, needed a lot of luck to win this game. Like that defense that the Browns have is the epitome of the defense that gives Derrick Carr a hard time. if I can get the Cleveland Browns as an underdog with one more week of James prepping to take over, I'm okay with that. Yeah, I'm laughing because that week, I don't know how it helps James. Either we're going to get a good James Day

or getting a bad James Day. I mean, you know that bet, no. We'd have no idea what we're going to get out of them. But I agree with you that this is more to me just about playing the number. Yeah. I don't know if I'm going to bet this one for real this week because there's other games I do like a lot more.

And again, James, I still feel like me and you got away when I guess the Ravens. And it's like, I can't get over that. The Kyle Hamilton drop. Just always will pop in my head with him for the rest of the year where it's like, that's who he is. Like, that really is who he is. He's going to throw a bunch of amazing passes and then just one absolute meatball right to the defender that either they're going to catch it or they're going to go right through their hand.

So yeah, play the number. I'm already seeing a couple two and a halves pop up, Chad. So you're actually on the smart side round. This number is moving. So I would say, if you agree with me and Chad, definitely grab the three now because it's going down. What do we do with Pittsburgh and Baltimore? Pittsburgh is a three-point underdog at home. It's the rah-rah spot.

Baltimore is streaking right now. It feels like we're tempting fate. I know percentage-wise, we're supposed to keep betting the Steelers, but it does feel like we are tempting fate a little bit. And also, here's one thing that I think is really important. the Steelers have been much better when Alex Highsmith was playing he went out at the end of the commander's game and was walking

on one leg off the field the Steelers defensive end so I do think I'm not quite anxious to bet it until I know his status yeah I'm against total speculation but he looked like he stepped on Daniel's ankle and rolled his own ankle

yeah rare that's a quick turnaround so I'm with you on that That's definitely negative, but it's another game where you can, if you want, you can be patient. I'm going to grab the three now just in case of professional side to come in on Pittsburgh, but this is going to be a pros for us. Joe's. I mean, this is every year we do this. Every year we're in the exact spot.

Me and you have bet this number at three, three and a half on Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh at home against Lamar. And we've covered that number. So I know you're, I get what you're saying right now, but you're going to come around. This is no doubt this is going to be one of our picks, but it's all about the value. If this is two and a half, I have no issue now forcing this one in. At three and a half, it's too tempting to pass on that number, especially where we just know this, this Ravens team, you know, what, top two, number one, offense and football, terrible defense. They're just terrible. Like, Chase, I know he's special.

He looked like he was playing at different speed. And I know that it's youth as a game changer because, again, when the Eagles played against him, Mitchell shut him down. Like, when you have a young fast corner, it's different with Chase, though. though, he looks so much faster than this secondary. And now they might be without Kyle Hamilton on the Raven side. How do we not factor that in as well? That's an even bigger loss than anything one we can add into that. Like yeah, I'm trying not to overthink this one.

I think we should take the three now because I do see the professional money coming in. But people out there, they're just one better. They only bet one time a week. You can be patient because I could see this go up to three and a half because this just feels like such a public side of this Ravens team. It does. about that trend, Lamar three and under. It's usually an auto bet for me and Chad.

Just in this spot, it's not. You were talking about Jamar Chase, by the way. Like for a second, I'm like, Chase, who is he taught? And then I remember. Vinny Chase, I'm through us. Jamar Chase and the Bengals. All right, what other games are you looking at? Just, it's just like, okay, these games pop out.

We said we thought the Jets quit. The Jets right now are minus three against the Colts. How do you feel like rolling it back with Joe Flack? I feel fine. It's on my list. I almost felt like I was going to be ridiculed. I know, but I was kicked off the show if I mentioned taking the court. No, we're just betting numbers here.

So that's an early number I'll grab now just because that Jets team really looked like they quit on me. That coach looks totally lost. I was talking to Coward. I was doing his show on Thursday. And I told him the wise guys are on the Jets and he goes, no. He goes, why? And I gave him all the reasons. He goes, yeah, all those makes sense if they've got a coach who's good and a team of the pool.

But they don't. And you know what? He was 100%. He was. Damn. That's great. Okay, just ones that jump out to me, charges are minus two and a half at home against the Bengals Sunday night. Yep.

That's really interesting. That number is really interesting. I wrote it down. My first instinct was Cincinnati plus two. and a half. Wow. All right. My first instinct was charges because it's so the Bengals is so tempting. I thought that number would be a pick. So that's what I haven't modeled at. So that's again, another game where I'm just questioning my own model because it's like maybe I'm giving too much respect to this Bengals team because they have had some really close losses. But when

they play against really good teams other than the Ravens, they've kind of been rolled, right? Like the Eagles absolutely rolled them. So that's, that to me, just the number that popped out. Like, is this really gonna go up to three plus three they're gonna get so much bangles money against his chargers team so that's just an interesting number that jumped out to me i expect i expect t higgins that's fair if he is back that would change my opinion on but if this is two and a half and there's no teagans i i love this chargers like they match up really well not only offensively but defensively i think as well like their their front can attack this bangles front like we know that's the bangles weakness. They just can't block for him right now. So just an early line that jumped out to me.

Argers giving up a craptastic garbage time, backdoor over cover to the Tennessee Titans with 41 seconds left today. That was brutal. That was in that moment, my dog started whining because she wanted like a little chewy. And I was like, I can't. not do this with you right now. And my son was like, why are you being so mean to her? And I didn't want to be like, because I just lost this fucking total because Will Levis did the one thing he can't do for 59 fucking minutes. I know. I tried to keep myself together. I just said she's, I don't want to hear the whining right now. That's all I said. Before we go, just got to get your earlier read on it, because I'm betting, I already bet the Packers a minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like,

isn't this a huge smash spot for Green Bay? It could not be worse vibes for Chicago. It is. And now you have Green Bay coming in off a bye week. Dude, it is such bad vibes there. The fact the Bears hired the offensive coordinator they hired, they kept the coach, they have wasted a year of Caleb Williams. They have possibly wasted two years because next year he will have have to

to unlearn all the bad habits, rebuild chemistry with a team and a receiver core, and DJ Moore specifically, who has clearly lost faith in the guy, and he will have to not be trigger-happy because he is afraid that he is going to get his head taken off by teams like the New England Patriots who sacked him nine times today.

By the way, another excruciating beat. Sean Cuner gave out 29 and a half pass attempts under. Caleb got to 30 on the last play of the game. So it, like, this team is terrible. But six and a half is a lot of points in the division at home. That's my take. So I'm not ready to. I'm on the other side.

I'm taking Green Bay now because I think this is going to go up. Okay. I'm not saying I'm not going to want to eventually get there. I'm not in the same place you are. No, I get your hesitation. I get it. Yeah. Not there.

Because Jordan Love hasn't been amazing. He's been giving the ball up a lot. He's been banged up. He's thrown a lot of picks. So there's a lot of variance there and a big number in the division. All right. Exciting. Exciting stuff.

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Next episode, live Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel will cover the week 11 board, announce our week 10 contest winner. download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever your work. Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you.

Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman. help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the Fourth. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and basketball, college football journey or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only

deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraging. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a Podcast.

For 1979, that was a big moment for me. It was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapy. and hosts Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor.

It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.