The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 16

Episode Date: December 23, 2024

The holiday season enters overdrive, but it's more than just sleigh bells, gingerbread and the moon shining on the breast of the new-fallen snow. This Sunday was about continued domination from favorites, the Raiders moving out of the league's basement, and an electrifying victory by the Washington Commanders. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter faithfully return to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 16, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Big D. Plus, we get their early looks at Week 17 matchups. And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit  Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from. some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, Famis? Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of you. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow.

Then after that game seven, Marquis come until he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man.

Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano. and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.

Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.

We will review the faves five picks. We put into the contest. We're going to dissect why we left some games out. We're going to preview the early lines we already like for a full week of NFL football in week 17. Games Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. I'm joined, as always, by my co-os, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter.

Hello, Soyman. Chad, how we doing? Dude. We are two and two on the day. We have the Cowboys plus four and a half tonight. This is the week where we look. looked in the face of the gambling gods and the trends of favorite dominating. And we said, screw you good teams with great quarterbacks.

We will not be intimidated. We didn't like every dog today. We did like some. After the early window, there had been on Sunday. There had been 10 NFL games played. So the Thursday, the Saturday, Sunday. Favorites had won eight of them, Simon. It's an unbelievable trend.

And while we did have a favorite in our top five today, somehow it's the only favorite that didn't cover. But we were on both underdogs that covered in the early window. This may be the most exciting post-games review we've ever had. Like two games we were at least sure of gave us all the reasons to feel unsure yet delivered. Two games we were least sure of. The one game we loved for every reason except for one did not go our way. For exactly the reason we feared, we're going to break that down. We're going to play a little clip that shows how much we were foreshadowing our fears.

Amazing, topsy-turvy, bet penult. early part of the day, we will get to it. Programming note for this upcoming week, holiday week, Christmas on Wednesday. Our live episode of the favorites on Tuesday is going to be at 11 a.m. Eastern. We're going to go early because Tuesday, afternoon, evening, we're getting into the Christmas Eve window. We want to make sure we put it out, well, people still may be traveling or have a chance to listen before they're preoccupied, you know, with their family. or watching football. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube.

For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. Now, new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites.

Deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used. on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or 1-800-bets-off in Iowa.

Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. You ready to roll? Simon, let's start with our early loss, early window loss. the Rams at the New York Jets. We had the Jets plus three and a half. Gifford, producer Gifford, are you ready? Because I want us to play a clip of our convo from Thursday.

Do you remember Simon? Do you remember that conversation? Do you remember our biggest fear about betting the Jets when we talked about it on Thursday? I do not. Gifford, are you ready to play this clip? You can tell me in the chat. He is ready. All right, here we go.

play it. This is the scary part by their very unqualified, ill-equipped head coach who knows less about clock management than just about anybody watching Red Zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's actually astonishing how bad he is at it. So if we get screwed in this game, this is why. I worry a little bit about Jeff Olbrook, just not understanding the basic construct of clock management. I don't know about you, Simon, but I put us losing that game squarely on the shoulders of Jeff Ulbrick and his asinine, idiotic go back to being a defensive coordinator or probably a linebacker's coach or maybe coaching high school football because he does not understand anything about the strategy of managing fourth downs, managing the clock at the NFL level.

An NFL coach has responsibility for two things on game day. That's it. Are you going forward and fourth down and how are you managing the clock? He makes the wrong call every single time. I'm referring to the first quarter, the Jets dominate the game. They look amazing. They look. Aaron Rogers is slinging it. Devante Adams is catching it. The Rams look exactly like we think they're going to look. They look a little bit out of sorts. They look like the team that had been overvalued. The Jets look like the team that is finally figuring it out in my head. I was thinking, oh my God, the Jets are probably going to do something so stupid like Woody Johnson's kids are going to decide they have to keep Aaron Rogers for next year. That's how well he was playing. They're up 6-0 because, of course, they scored a touchdown and missed the extra point. They had just intercepted Stafford, who was a wreck at this point. There's no reason to be aggressive in the game. You are dominating this game. You punt the ball if you're not going to get close to a first down and you make Stafford prove it. on their own 33, with eight minutes left in the second quarter,

they go forward on fourth and one, get stuffed, the Rams score a touchdown, it's back and forth the rest of the day. What was your thought on that particular play? Because in my head, I'm like, this guy's truly a fucking putts. Yeah, every call he made flipped the momentum. Like the Jets defense, not that they dominated the game,

but Stafford only had, what, 110, 115 pass? in yards like he didn't have a good day at all he wasn't like we talked about they were playing so well the jets and basically every point that the Rams had came off a Jets bad decision right it was either the head coach or Rogers and yeah like going for that fourth down on their own 30 was terrible not taking the three to go up six yeah was a terrible decision and obviously going for it at midfield once again and yet not getting it it's just like every everything that could have gone wrong and And then the Rogers, obviously, Rogers full-mable turnover. But yeah, they basically outplayed the Rams in that game,

but they just mentally gave away the game. Like they gave it away in so many different ways with those bad calls. You're right. It's brutal, but it was just like we talked about it, it's the other dogs, you bet today it's like you bet these teams in these good spots, but you obviously need luck and bounce to go your way. And we had a game today where every bounce went against us and we still somehow covered and that team went outright.

where in this game, there were still those opportunities for this Jets team, and they couldn't stop shooting themselves on the foot. Like even the opportunity was given to them, the ramps kept letting them hang around stay in the game to cover the number, and it all basically came down to Devante Adams turned the wrong way on a fourth down, or I think that might have been third down, midfield. Rodgers throws a bad spot. They don't get it on fourth down,

and then all of a sudden the ramps come down and score again. It's like, well, that bet's officially dead. So, yeah, brutal bet, brutal team in the Jets. I mean, I'm happy the season's almost over the playoffs, so we don't have to bet this Jets team anymore. So what you're referring to is this is a 9-6 game in the second quarter. And it's clearly a defensive battle where points are going to be at a premium. Anyone watching this game knows you just got to get as many points as you can.

because Stafford is struggling so much in this game. The only thing that's working for them is Kyron Williams. Fourth and four from their own 12, from the Rams 12, he decides to go for it. Jeff Ulbrick. This guy thinks he's like Dan Campbell only without the talent and without the strategic thought of when you should actually be going on fourth down. Even worse, I don't think it's him, Chad.

I think it's Roger. He's letting me make these decisions. It feels like every time it's Roger staying on the field, or waving guys off. And it's like, dude, do not let this crazy guy who might not even be here in about two weeks keep making all these decisions. Like obviously Rogers was to go with. The guy thinks he can complete it every time.

So I'm with you. It's like the man has no backbone. He kept making the wrong calls, not understanding the way the game was. And just how much momentum his team had, like you said. They just had so many opportunities that you would put staff for once again in a bad position to have to pass. And instead, you let him keep having the lead. lead where they can just keep running the ball and that's the best thing they had today.

I mean, you know, Williams was averaging over five yards of carry. Like, that's really their bread and butter today in this game. So the other play you're referring to is they were down 10 with two minutes, two seconds to go. It's fourth and four for midfield. They're going to go for it, as they should. In my head, I was already thinking, yeah, they'll get to the 20 with 115 left and it'll be fourth down and they'll just kick the field goal there. So like, what does it matter? Instead, it's fourth and four. They get a false start, of course, because they had so many penalties in critical situations.

They're pushed back nine yards. They go for the field goal. They miss it. Can you recall a coach that when you're handicapping, you've had to so aggressively consider his ineptitude when you are thinking about betting that game, you're making a number for that game. At this point, I feel like you have to take the Jets down further

because of his inability to assess what is happening right in front of him. Yeah, I mean, the Saints coach they fired this year was absolutely the worst ever, right? Historically, I think I haven't always told us that. Yeah. No, I was trying to think is that, what was the guy's name? Was it McDoo? I forget the name of the Giants coach, but he had a point where it was... Macadoo.

Macadoo. He hit a point where it was like anything. thing this guy was doing, I wanted to fade him. Like, he completely had lost the locker. I remember when he benched Eli Manning. Yeah. Regina Smith. Jump out.

Yeah. You know, that's a good call. Like this guy, even if it's Aaron Rogers, like, you should know enough that you're playing for, your coaching for next year. Maybe you're not going to be a head coach. But maybe if you show some semblance of backbone, some ability to manage it situation, some understanding of what is important in terms of the clock, going for it, all that. I don't think Aaron Rogers is saying, let's go for him, fourth and one from the 30.

I think that's Jeff Albrecht, deciding that they're going to do it. I mean, maybe we'll, I don't know if we'll ever find out, but I can't imagine Aaron Rogers is saying that. I can, but again, I might be thinking too much into because I'm watching his documentary right now, which I don't know if you are, and it is, it is eye-opening. Me and Aaron Rogers would be good friends. He is an absolute character. They're just, what a freaking train wreck.

I thought we had him a good spot. We did have him a good spot. Yeah, we should just, unfortunately, obviously, we can't take first half here, but that clearly was the move with that Jetteam. They didn't score a single point in the second half. Amazing. Arizona at Carolina, five and a half. Look, we love the Panthers, and Panthers in this spot.

We had high expectations for them. they totally dominated this game. At what point they were up 20 to 3. We were feeling really good. The Cardinals snuck back in it. All of a sudden they scored 14 straight as 2017. I was still feeling pretty good. Like we got a good number in the contest.

We got five and a half. So the way the Panthers were playing and they were dominating on the ground, the Cardinals really couldn't stop them. I felt like we were going to chew clock and that we were going to have a chance to maybe trade points, trade field goals, whatever. Then it got a little wacky. Yeah.

At one point, Bryce Harper played exactly like the guy we've been betting it, right? Price Young. Bryce Young, I mean. I love that Bryce Harper's on your mind, though, chat. Bryce Harper might be better than half the quarterbacks in the NFL. On a critical short-yardage play, late in the second half, Bryce Young got hit so hard in the face.

And he side-armed a ball. they converted the first down. The perfect ball. Perfect ball getting smashed in the face. Like he was hit so hard. I thought he wouldn't get up. Like I just thought, I can't believe, again, we talk about it coming to year, how small he is. He just takes these insane hits.

And like you said, he gets up smiling. It's crazy. He was smiling after that. I swear to God, I thought to myself, it's so sad that he died on the field. But at least he died doing what he loves and keeping this game close. And maybe we still got a shot. with Andy Dalton. No, it's like that old, I forget,

I don't know if it was Bruce Lee, but it was basically like, the guys who were the best are like feathers who can take punches, right? You don't want to be punched like your metal. You want to be punched when like you're a feather. Like you can eat those hits. I don't know how he does it

because he should have been dead. Like you said, it was a 300 pound man, literally full speed leveling him when he was mid-throw. It was crazy. I still can't get over that. That's basically what that game came down to in a lot of ways. But no, but on the next, like on the next two or three plays,

he lost a perfect, accurate moonball over the outside shoulder to their receiver and they scored touchdown. They're up 30 to 20. Yeah. Was that more? Was that the more touchdown? Yeah.

Again, he had a lot of big time throws. But I mean, I honestly thought we were dead. I can't believe you didn't think we were dead when it came down to that overtime. No, you know when I thought it was dead? I wish we could do, since we're such a high production organization. nice job Matt Mitchell and Gifford on the on the adding the clip with

Ulbrick but in my notes I swear to God in my notes with about right after Kyle Murray scored I'm Kyler Murray scored and the score was 30 to 27 I wrote in my notes this is a nightmare scenario this game's going to overtime we're going to lose by six that's exactly what I wrote in my notes when he scored to make it 30 to 27. Like, I saw OT six, seven minutes out from it happening. Forget about when it went to OT. When we got that coin flip, I, like,

the thrill I had with Carolina winning that coin flip cannot be explained. Me too. And especially just because of what had happened to us in that late window, we went from being a pretty cruise two and one to all of some we're looking at O and three. And I was just like, this is literally our season in a nutshell. Like everything just goes wrong in these fourth quarters for us with these dogs.

And it's just been this year, it's just been a grind. Like our dogs, the only way dogs hit now is if they win outright, basically. They have to be perfect, nearly perfect. Yeah, and they're just these breaks have to keep going their way. Like, it's, it is crazy where you get these comfortable leads. And it's like, no, like you said, Carolina gets up big. And it's like, we can still do the gambling math and see how this could go the other way.

and we could still not cover, but yeah, a game that, not that people are trying to talk me off of it, but a lot of people I know were on the Cardinals and a lot of heavy money came in late and bumped that number up, like you just said to five and a half. Some books were at six at kickoff for that game. So, you know, that's one of those that's like a little scary

because it's moving against us and we're like already pot committed kind on Carolina. Like we didn't even talk about switching them out, right? No, we did. We did. Don't forget. We did talk about switching out. Carolina and Washington. I would say Washington, I would have understood, but like Carolina, once it was-

We talked about both in them. Yeah, for Detroit. Once you said though, five and a half, though, for Carolina, in my mind, there was no way of taking it out. But yeah, that would have been just a brutal beat to lose two. Again, the other time we covered two

when they lost in overtime because it was a field goal, but it was just like, man, they can't blow this game. Like they played so well, Brayshunk played so well. Yeah, again, tough times for dogs, Chad. Like two dogs we took had to win outright for us to basically cover the number. I have an idea for my next book.

And it's about sports betting. And gambler's math will be part of this book because the math that everybody does when they are trying to figure out not how they are going to win a game, how they are going to get fucked in a game is astonishing. And I wish, like, everybody who isn't Dave Sportsbetter knew that what everyone else in the room who is a Sports Better was doing in their head as they were watching any of these games. Because I, like, every scenario I was thinking, this is how we're going to get screwed here, this is how we're going to get screwed here, this is how we're going to get screwed here. And yet, with these two games, Carolina and now Washington, who we had at, I think, four and a half, right? Yeah, four and a half, because that number, money came steaming in on Philadelphia on Sunday morning.

I thought this was a dead bet in the first quarter. Oh, yeah. They, like, they looked terrible. And this was the game we really talked about putting in. We talked about Carolina in Washington, but really it was Washington. Like, we felt most uncomfortable with this game. We both did all week. Like, it was your Simon says, but like it didn't really move in the direction we thought it was going to move.

No, and it's another week of like, the guys, I respect, old heads, you know, they're really loving that Eagles team. And we basically saw it for that first quarter, like you just said, I was like, holy shit, they were right. we just walked right into us they cannot stop berkeley like i had so many guys talking about this is a terrible matcher for barclay that quietly flipped they once hurts went out yeah they were able to stop barclay and you know a game in which me and chad got incredibly lucky kenny picket did not lay down and die that kid played pretty damn well in that game and showed up in pretty big moments and we basically just needed a ton of little breaks to go our way just because washington came out and not played their worst game obviously they put up over 30 points but five

turnovers you never come back from that with a rookie against the number one defense on football like you never have that so got basically everything we talked about came true with that Eagles team in that in that spot where you have this emotional high win against Pittsburgh you come in and the littlest thing went wrong with hurts going out again it's not like they're reacted they fell apart from it but it clearly messed up the mindset of the whole team altogether because that defense just didn't look right the rest of the game for the most part. Like they were flying to start the game

and then all of a sudden, it kind of shifted the mood of the whole team. And, you know, props to Kenny Pickett, I mean, he kept the Eagles in that game and gave us a sweat. But Jaden Daniels, you know, just locked up, rookie the year. Just a truly incredible performance where his running back, I think he fumbled twice, Robinson. He's throwing picks all over the place and he still took him down that final drive

in a touchdown we had to have. because, you know, like you just said, we were on a bad number. It was on five because of his stupid pick. And that, when he threw that pick and they went to five, I was like, oh, me and Chad are dead here. There's no way. He's going to drive the field with this amount of time.

And, yeah, basically, Devante Smith gave us the luckiest drop. And, again, the Eagles had had two losses this year on drops. The Sequeque won against Atlanta in this drop year. And it's like, me and Chad needed that, got really lucky it happened. But it was like the class of thing of, you know, it was eventually going to break away some of these. some of these games just because we had been so historically unlucky. So yeah, pretty insane that it all came down at Devante drop because I think when they

scored there might have been six seconds left and he would have caught that. It went to the, would have went to the two minute and it went first down. So they basically would have been over. They would have run it out at 3328. We talked about putting the lions in here and there was a moment, as always happens, back to back. Saquan scores on a 68-yard touchdown right. after James and Williams for the Lions catches an 80-yard bomb.

In that moment, I was having such regret. I'm like, I was just thinking, well, at least the Jets are dominating, and at least the Panthers are dominating. But like I was truly having such better as regret. Even with hurts out, they're down 21-7. I felt like we were always in it because Kenny Pickett played great in the end, but the reason Saquan didn't do anything

is because the commanders knew Kenny Pickett wasn't going to be able to do anything and they could just load the box and stop Saquan from getting any yardage whatsoever. And they still did everything they could to throw this game away. Between the two picks, Jaden had a fumble.

In the second half, AJ Brown drew 68 yards of pass interference penalties on Marshawn Latimore. That was as many yards almost as he had. in the first half receiving. Like, Kenny Pickett had two great plays, one of them on fourth and seven to AJ, but we got very lucky in that game. Even on the game-winning play, if you watch, you're going to go back and watch the film,

I know, on the game-winning play, see how early the commander's right tackle went. He was, like, I'd say 0.2 to 0.3 seconds before the snap. Like to the point where my kid sitting next to me goes, well, there's a flag. I'm like, what? He goes, the right tackle went early. I'm like, I know, but they didn't throw it. Like, it was so obvious. And I was surprised the announcers didn't say anything.

Because, like, it was so fundamentally clear. I thought we were just going to lose it on that. Yeah, and the refs, though, are all bizarre. Some of those calls against AJ were just obscene. Like, they literally, like, the Eagles basically drive the field for that, that whole kept calling holds. pass interference but yeah for me it's you know a game where we got lucky we played the number but we always talk about there's certain spots and that was just a bad spot for that eagle's team

and now they're in a position that you know they have some real decisions they make how bad this hurts concussion is because obviously he couldn't come back in this game so you know as an eagles fan i'm happy it's nothing to do with his body but we all know how hard it is to come back from concussions depending on the concussion right if this is a bad one he could be out of the to the playoffs. If it's not that big of a deal, like we'll know early in this week. Obviously come back this week. But yeah, we were never going to cover this number if it was Jaylon Hertz in the full game. No, totally not. New England at Buffalo. So, you know, eight favorites cover in the early window, including Michael Pennix and the huge favorites over the

giants, which we never considered. And the Lions at six and a half, which we thought about. and the Bengals at seven and a half, which, excuse me, which grew even bigger as we got, I think it was close to 10 before kickoff. Only three, you know, only three dogs covered this whole weekend, right? Yeah, it's absurd. Well, it depends. It depends because anyways, we didn't choose any of those. We went all in on the Buffalo Bills, we, I mean me, to the point where even professional

about I was worried about my sanity. Because why wouldn't you best? that the best player in a home game in which he historically dominates and covers huge numbers against a really, really terrible team who's got offensive turmoil and a defense that hasn't been able to stop anybody all year. Oh, yeah. The bills couldn't stop anybody. Drake May looked like Josh Allen. Pats were five of eight on third downs. They were one for one on fourth down in the first half because they executed a fake punt from their own 22.

Like the pads gained seven and a half yards per play. It was a freaking debacle. Yeah, it's kind of game. It's the best, it's the dream if you bet the dog in it because like you just said, Drake May came out firing and he looked ready for this game where Josh Allen looked all out of sorts. Like we talked about it.

You know, we tried catching him against the Lions because we knew he was due for a bad game. They had done some of the historic. it scored 30 points or more in eight straight games eventually goes the other way it's just i mean he is superhuman but it's like you know a lot of we talked about a lot of the throws he was making they were bad decisions they were working out for him because he's just that talented in this game he just didn't get away with it right the bounces didn't go his way they're clearly the better team in every metric like when they when they wanted to turn it on they did turn it on you know defensively they

completely stopped everything that patriots had momentum wise i mean they were up yeah 14 early in the second quarter and they didn't score another point until the very last two minutes of the game. So that just shows like obviously the bill's defense, you know, it's a big worry. Everyone's talking about it. We know that they're not as terrible as they've looked against all these offenses last couple of weeks, but there is something to it. Like you talked earlier in that game, Drake May was moving up and down the field and they were running the ball down the bill's throat. So Josh Allen basically was the one that screwed us the end of this. Like their defense did enough they got us a defensive touchdown you figure josh allen's going to cover that number um you know

got a little banged up but it was just at the end of the day he just had an off night like even cook had a good game run on the ball like they really was all about josh own he just finally had a bad game so um yeah if he has another one lamar noise starts becoming a little more more real right it's it's it's going to get a little tighter here because he does have an easy scheduled end to here he's going to go New England to now he's playing the Jets to back to New England. So yeah, we'll see what the injury is for Josh Allen on his hand or if it's his elbow. But tough, tough bet that we lost this one, just especially because every favorite cover. Like we talked Detroit, you tried to talk me into Sinty.

I couldn't get there. That number went from seven and a half up to nine and a half by kickoff. They got crazy lucky to cover that number. I mean, every little thing. I think they had two or three Red Zonzie. don't turnovers, you know, a walk in touchdown, call back on a holding for the Browns. They go down and score a touchdown.

They didn't even need to score, right? They're trying to run the clock out. They jump off, he just throws a perfect ball to chase. So it's just been that kind of season, chat, where it's like, you know, we're not favorite bettors. We've been trying to do it. Even this week, I thought favorites were gonna get smoked. Like the public, they're just betting these money line

parlays of all these favorites, and they're just cashing every week. It's crazy, but they did it again. So yeah, hopefully the dog that we like tonight comes through. Again, it's a professional side. We've seen it get down to three and a half and a couple books now, this Cowboys line. So still feel confident about it,

but after seeing all these favorites today, Chad, it's like, I don't know what I'm looking at. It's just, it doesn't make sense. We're in a Twilight world right now. We're gonna talk about week 17 on the other side of this read. And I said before we came on the air, I feel like I'm reading hieroglyphics

because I don't know how to look at this sort of on Sunday night in the heat of the moment without taking a beat and really breaking some of it down and trying to think about this scenario. So I'm curious to get your take on some of these. I got two or three games that sort of like felt right, but I was also in my head just working so hard to figure out where's my bias and blind spot on favorite. So I'm going to give you a minute. You'll take a look at the lines. I'm going to do our read for Game Time.

Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States? I can. Game Time. That's right. It's our beloved sponsor. Game Time. I have a no joke. You're not going to believe this.

You know I am an avid user of all the products of our regular sponsors. Here's an example of how avid. So like last night, my young. younger son goes into New York City, goes into the city with a couple of his buddies, staying overnight at his grandmas. They're all going to stay there because she just moved into Manhattan. He calls me around 5.30 last night and he says that they all want to go to the Nets game at Barclays. They're playing the jazz in Brooklyn. I told them I'd buy the tickets for all them, but no more than 50 bucks each. While on FaceTime, he opened the GameTime app that's on his phone.

He clicked on the Nets Jazz game, went to the top deals that are featured in a row when you click on the game, top deals. We both, while we're looking at it, see the all-in price for $51 for three tickets, 51 each, clicks it, hits pay, it was done. Three clicks, he had the tickets. It was seamless and perfect. No joke. This is a real-world example. I'm going to open the GameTime app right now from my house here in Connecticut. we're probably going to go see a Yukon women's game this week, less than $35 to get in.

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What time is it? Game time! Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a new? name Hey Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Keith Giamonka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad. But secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy. But I felt so desperate that. I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like?

No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue.

Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives,

helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of

the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream.

Cream and chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the MyCultura podcast network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHart Podcast Presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend Janet. Hey.

And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey with all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar something here? Just take it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album?

Oh, I would. Come on. Could you believe? I would buy it. Cut through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drink. drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky I'm not a killer.

I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's the good for us passes. Our passes today. We didn't bet the Giants even though we like, we're like, should we really bet or skip a game in which is a rookie quarterback who's a touchdown plus favorite. Biggest favorite NFL history for first start for a rookie.

And he covered with no problem. We didn't bet he looked good. He didn't throw a touchdown pass covered. He still looked good. That is crazy to think. That's how bad Drew Locke is. He throws a really good ball. Well, look, there were two pick sixes.

We didn't bet the Titans. Everyone in the betting community was taking the bait. We did not take it. I know. They almost came close, man. That is. And shout out to bet three six five. I did, I bet on their site.

I did a money line parlay with the Colts. And they paid it out early. And I was just so happy when the All-Snat Titans comeback app. And I was like, oh, the Colts are going to blow this. And yeah, Anthony Richardson, with 11 completions, had a big, big third down throw. Oh, my God. So crazy. That was a crazy game.

Unfortunately, we just couldn't pick the right favorite. Yeah, that's what this week came down to do. Right. We'd have been three and one if we had picked the right one. We both love Detroit. But once again, the ball. books are fucking up where it's like the line was too easy it was six and a half all week and everyone in their grandmom was hammering that line Detroit it was 90% of the tickets 90% of the bets it was

like 20 to 1 the tickets to the money was on Detroit what are the books doing I don't get it what are they doing like they're just killing me because it's throwing me off where it's like that looked too good to be truly even we talked about this morning I was like I said you are we the suckers taking this Detroit like we always go against this. It felt too easy and nope, it is, it is that easy right now. That Bears team is just totally dysfunctional. Yeah, what we said like that Bears team, they're so unprepared to start the game that you really, you can't bet them. You know, it's just too, you can't because they don't have the coaching to get them ready for the game and they were out of it before the game

started. It was over. Week 17, uh, there were three games when I was looking through the action app at the early lines for next week when I was walking up to my office after the Bills game. Immediately, I looked at that Atlanta game plus five on the road at Washington. I don't know why. Maybe I'm a sucker because I felt like the commanders were terrible and Pennix was awesome. But maybe this is where it's a dead number and it's not the Eagles. And like maybe that's the favorite we play. I'm at a loss right now.

Do you have thoughts on that? I don't have an opinion on it, but I feel like you're probably right where that line does look fishy, where, you know, I'm assuming I'll have this model out at three, three and a half because I agree with you. I think he looked much better than I anticipated.

And this is a tough spot, though, rookie second start primetime game in Washington. But we expect Washington coming off that win to, you know, semi-a-elected. but they just survived the five turnover, so I don't know. I don't know how to really read that one, but interesting number to open out five for the books. Yeah, it's a real middle-man number there,

middle-of-the-ground number, middle-of-the-road, having a hard time with it. I looked at the Rams as favorites, four-point favorites against Arizona. This felt like, all right, like, now it's a point. I'm seeing it, Jesus Christ, I missed it already. So I was clearly on the right side there. Like the Rams is the favorites.

This is a nice spot for the Rams. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if Kyle was crying on the bench the end of that Carolina game, but they basically found out that their season's over. Yeah, they're done. And like here, now L.A. And Connor got hurt, I believe. Yeah.

And L.A. is in the driver's seat. So that looked like a good one for me. The last one that I was. I still don't mind it. As long as it's under six, but you're right. There's no rush to bet it now that's already been hit. Right.

The last one on my. radar was Green Bay as a one and a half point dog at Minnesota. I think Minnesota is getting lucky right now. I think Green Bay, I look at that team. I don't know why I think they're so good, but if I can get Green Bay as a dog at any point, I want to take them. Interesting. Yeah, I was, I was ready to jump off the Green Bay train because I'm probably going to end up taking them tomorrow night. We have convinced me so I don't want to give away too much because we're doing the show tomorrow. People should check it out on YouTube. But yeah, this Packers team, they're going to be everyone betting on right, because I think people have your mind. So the Vikings, that to me

was a scheduled loss and they still somehow stole it there at the end. Like San Donald getting destroyed, eating up, throwing absolutely dimes down the sideline to Justin Jefferson. Like that the statian Ancillor read that there's been two quarterbacks in NFL history to go to a new team and win the more than 13 games in their first season. And Peyton Manning with Denver and then Steve McNair, his first year with the Ravens in 06. It was like, holy shit. This is truly a wacko world we're living in right now, Sam Donald.

But you know what's interesting about him? There's things that they're doing on offense that are brilliant. There's also things that they're doing because his arm is so freaking strong. Like he is throwing these outs across the field from the opposite. at hash on a rope. And these are 15-yard outs. They're not these short five-yard outs that so many guys throw now

that they can do because his arm is so good. Like that is, he's throwing 50 yards in the air for 15-yard gains. It's pretty astonishing. Yeah, I mean, obviously, Kevin O'Connell deserves him because of the year, but this, even some of this stuff, he's probably just in the back of line.

Like, I never would have expected this with this kid. Oh, of course. We talked about the time. You know, cats grin or whatever. Yeah. Did you see, when they were reading that stat, you just said on the air, he was walking across and he was clapping and he was like almost smirking. He was like, got away with that one.

Yeah, and it's just a real predicament that they put the Vikings in now because, you know, Sam Donald, this is the dream for him when he was coming out of college. We all knew he had the arm talent. He was a 21-year-old at the time who were like, okay, if he gets wrong, reps can figure it out. He could be a stud in this league. And he went through years of just psychological warfare. Like this guy basically got caught on camera saying

that he was seeing ghost and couldn't live it down for I don't even know what was that, five years, six years. And his confidence level right now, I mean, there's only one person more confident about Sam Darnard's Colin Cowherd. Like those two guys are peak right now, because it's insane what we've seen from him this season. Like even in my wildest,

streams I could never have seen this season come from. So that's my fear right now with this number chat is that Green Bay will be the public side. And I think people have the same entirety view of this Vikings team keep getting caught. I'm the other way where I'm like, this has everything, everything about this has lined up for them to be the one scene and then losing in their first round or the second round whenever they play. The bucks or the Eagles or somebody. Because it's like you said, their luck right now and the one score games has just been insane. Every one score game, they somehow find a way to win. Whether it's overtime or, you know, the last minute drive by Sam Donald and then making the stop defensively.

Like, it's just been all clicking for this Vikings team. And it's, it really is crazy at this point. So I can't get there with you with Green Bay right now. I'm a little spooked about this Viking team. I had the Seahawks plus three and a half and from early in the week. And I loved this game for the Seahawks at plus three and a half. Another game, the books moved at two and a half for a day and a half. Got slaughtered.

Yeah, exactly. And that's why we didn't talk about it for the contest. Like you didn't love it because it moved and we were both worried about Gino Smith. And so once it had gone off the three and a half. But in the end, I'm like, oh shit, Gino's going to throw a pick six here like an easy one. I'm going to lose this fucking bet. All right. So who are you looking at?

I'm grabbing Cowboys right now at seven and a half. I don't know what the deal is with Hertz. I don't know how banged up you is. If there's going to be Kenny Pickett, if they're going to be cautious here. We just talked about it. I don't know what the Eagles are playing for. at this point. Like, yes, they want to win this game, but, you know, we've seen time and time again this rivalry, like even when the Cowboys are playing their backups, they play hard in this

one. So it's just really picking the number. It's seven and a half. Me and Chad hope what happens tonight does happen where the Cowboys either went out right or cover the number, this will definitely be six and a half. And then if it's obviously, can you pick it, who knows? Could be four and a half if it's kind of picket and keep dropping. So this is just a number I'm going to grab now just because it's a key number and there's just so much up in the air. And I just want to emphasize, like, that's what people need to do.

We took the Chiefs last week at two and a half, not knowing what was going on with Mahomes, and it turned out to be he was playing and they went going away, and we had the plus two and a half from early in the week when there was uncertainty. Yeah, so that's just what I'm grabbing now. Again, I don't want to hit these games too much

just because we're going through it. I'm just going to convince me, but in a normal year, I would be hammering the Steelers on Christmas. They are right now a plus two dog. So that's another thing. I don't know what to do where it's like the simple person, the dumb guy is, well, it's Mahomes under three. And you always take Mahomes under three.

And it's like this guy has been money with the favorites this year. So it's tough for me to fight through that one. That's when we're going to break down. I'll see more. Well, look, here's one thing I will say. and I said this unconvinced me this morning before we went on air, what kind of world are we living in? Where you can't even count on fading Mahomes as a more than three-point favorite,

which you have normally been able to do when he's won two weeks in a row as a more than three-point favorite. And you can't count on betting on Mike Tomlin as a underdog, especially as a big dog in this Raven Steelers rivalry. And he's lost two weeks in a row as a plus four and a half, plus five and a half, plus six and a half dog. So now we've got rock meeting the hard place next week where you were dying to bet on my homes at under three. I'm taking, that's what I was about to say, though. I took the two.

You did? Yeah, because my whole thought process is it is in my homes, under three. And we talked about that Russell Wilson might have turned back into a pumpkin because we He hasn't had George Pickens. What if he has George Pickens this week? That could be the difference. But he has just made such poor decisions where they were thriving because he was being smart, protecting the ball and not putting them in a bad.

position and that's you just put them in such bad positions like I still can't believe you didn't cover that number it just totally went sideways they're about to go up 14-7 against the Ravens he has that bad fumble and then after that he's just chasing the rest of the game and that's that's not we want to rust to be so again bizarre number to hang by the books you know another game that just jumps out of you know just a bizarre number the books are hanging here early you can get bangles minus three against Denver on Saturday. day at home. So I saw that

and I thought they were sucking us in? What is that three? I looked at that and I'm like, I feel like they're playing us because Joe Burrow is so unworldly right now. He's locked in.

And so they're looking they're like their defense is so bad. Yeah, the worst. I feel like there's a big difference between what Sean Payton will do with Bo Nix, who has played well against poor as defenses versus what Stefansky can do with

Dorian Thompson Robinson. So I just felt like they were inflating that a little bit more than they should. I felt like they were trying to suck me in. That's fair. It was just another game that jumped out to me where it's like these lines are interesting they're hanging here because you're right. Gut instinct is just to bet this.

I could see it being three and a half and us being on Denver. You're right. I won't have to rush to this one. But that was definitely a favor that opened up that called my attention. Here's another one. We just talked about Josh Allen might be a little banged up. Jets are plus 10. I know it's too raw right now. Oh, God. I'm just going to grab it just because it is plus 10. Like that's a huge number for a Josh Allen that might be a little banged up. But like this, him having back to back, bad games, that I'm not betting on. So that's, that's issue where it's like, I'm not going to force us to put this one in.

It's just about playing this number just in case Josh Allen is banged up. He has a brace on his finger or his elbow, whatever, another team that it might be all locked up for this game. The Chiefs might be Pittsburgh, Chad, and they might not really be playing for anything at that point. So there's just another number I'm going to play like the Cowboys just in case it does move. If anyone can find a way to screw it up, it's Aaron Rogers and Jeff Over. That's fair. Anyone else? Was that it? No, because there's like favorites I like that like I'm going to say for our show. I'm just worried I'm just adjusting too much here but Detroit's minus three and a half against the 49ers.

The 49ers look like they quit year ago. Usually I would fade them on that number, but that's just a bad line. And Miami's right now is minus six against Cleveland. I kind of want to take Cleveland there, but I feel like I'm getting sucked in once again where it's like, no, go Miami. But it's just it might be cold as hell in Cleveland. And now it's two at a six point favorite on the road in cold as Cleveland. How about I take that number right now? I looked. I didn't, I didn't think about Detroit because it felt like, because that game's in San Francisco, right? Yeah.

Yeah. It felt like someone's trying to fuck me on that. It always feels that way. Yeah, the Miami. That's what I thought of that day was six and a half. Right, but that's the problem is like we're looking at favorites and the book is posting these numbers knowing that they're sucking us in and it doesn't matter because they keep losing and we keep ignoring them.

and the public keeps winning. The public favorites today were the bills, who of course we faded and we took, and the Bengals who covered and the third team was Detroit. I looked at Miami minus six. I'm like, yeah, I'm going to want to play Miami against Cleveland. And then I'm like, well, shoot, it's two in the cold. And now we're just overthinking it. So look, there's a lot to unpack.

I think the best idea is take the Rams, take Dallas plus seven, and a half because we don't know what happened with hers like get the good number i like your idea for kansas city minus two but it makes me a little nervous um but we'll break it down more on uh tuesday at 11 a m eastern early show for christmas eve as a reminder the favorites podcast is presented by bet 365 and now new bet 365 customers get a hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars sign up using promo code favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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YouTube channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, lose five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong

way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?

That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to deep cover the family man. On the eye heart, Art Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From My Heart Podcasts, Saigon. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart.

This is for Vietnam. They're pouring patril all over here. Freedom for Vietnam! There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.