The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 3

Episode Date: September 23, 2024

What a Sunday across the NFL! Andy Dalton saves the the Carolina Panthers. The Rams shock the 49ers. The Vikings steamroll the Texans. And underdogs of 6 or more improve to 11-1 against the spread so ...far this season.   Back to recap all the thrills and chills are Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, who discuss another Steelers victory, a pathetic performance from the Tennessee Titans, a resurgent Bo Nix in Tampa, and so much more. Together they recap their contest selections, good and bad, and take accountability once again before Sunday Night Football kicks off. And In case you're new to the show, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway for a second season! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 00:00:47 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me.
Starting point is 00:01:06 Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,
Starting point is 00:01:20 creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford show on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford
Starting point is 00:01:32 and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picky here,
Starting point is 00:01:45 unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.
Starting point is 00:01:56 I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host Keer Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that doesn't.
Starting point is 00:02:28 not mean that you need to listen to learn the hard way on the iha radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet three six five we are part of the volume podcast network we are sweating the end of some games live from our tommy john home studios i am chad millman chief content officer of the action network this is our sunday night in which we review the Faves Fives Fives Picks. We put into the contest this morning. We dissect why we left some games out. Preview the early lines we already like for week four.
Starting point is 00:03:22 I'm joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre. The man who gave out the Rams with Dr. Nick Giffin on our afternoon. Bet what happens live, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. What a day, Chad. Dude, a miraculous day, a beautiful day. We're not out of the woods in any respect for our five picks. But at least like there was not a ton of anxiety with our picks.
Starting point is 00:03:53 We're going to get to that. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying it on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365. Customers can get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets.
Starting point is 00:04:24 Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet365 must be 21 or older. and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. All right. Here's a fun little stat that Evan Abrams has been tout in our week that he just put into the script for us. The Rams have won outright. Underdogs of six plus points, so six points or more, move to 11 and one against the spread, seven and five
Starting point is 00:05:11 straight up this season entering Monday night football. The Panthers covered as big dogs today, the Giants covered as big dogs today, the Broncos covered as big dogs today, the Giants, the Panthers covered as big dogs today, the Giants, the Panthers, the Broncos all. won outright, and now the Rams. Insane. He boldly blended the varied talents of his teammates. Like a skilled conductor, he directed them in a classic two-minute drill. Insane day.
Starting point is 00:05:47 What's amazing about this contest, Simon, is that we were on all these games, and yet somehow, instead of being 4-0 at the end of the day so far, just playing those games, we're two and one. We have the Falcons plus three and a half tonight against the Chiefs, the Jags, plus five and a half tomorrow, against the bills. If you believe listeners, viewers, you could beat our picks this season.
Starting point is 00:06:15 Be our guest. Let us pay you $40,000. Sign up for the contest. Favorites.actionnetwork.com. All right. Let's run through the games, starting with the loser. And I got to emphasize here, just one loser so far through Sunday.
Starting point is 00:06:34 I wish I could say we were undefeated, like I said up there at the top. Unfortunately, we never even considered taking our losing team out in all of these conversations. The good news was, Simon, this was a no-sweat day as far as the games we put into the contest. From the outset, the teams we picked, either controlled the game or they were never in it. starting with Tennessee minus two and a half against Green Bay. Listen, Matt LaFleur is just a genius. Since 1990, the list of coaches who are above 500 straight up as a dog with at least 17 games, Matt LaFleur, 20 and 15, and Mike Tomlin 50 and 49.
Starting point is 00:07:28 So we're going to break it down. I'm curious to know sort of your perspective on all of it. And I'll take a break from babbling for a second. Yeah, I mean, we did have a conversation. We talked about a couple other favorites. And that's what's fun but tough about this show, right? It's a partnership. We're both trying to find games we both like together.
Starting point is 00:07:51 And, you know, today you definitely planted your flag in Denver, where I like Denver, but you loved it. and you were spot on on that one. I love the Ravens, and I never could get you there. So we end up going to Tennessee, which is another game I love. So, yeah, Will Levis throwing a pick six and just being awful, that's life bet in Tennessee. They're a bad team right now. So like you said, that was brutal, especially in a day where that's our only miss.
Starting point is 00:08:18 Everything else really came through. That's a tough one. But at the end of the day, that's gambling. you know, I have no regrets with it, but yeah, I just, you know, going back looking at our picks, it's like, what could I have said to make it different? But I just don't think I would have said anything. So no matter what, we were probably going to be either three and one at this point or two and one. Yeah, to me, I felt like the only game we might have taken out was the Broncos. Because I got the sense the whole time you were not sort of in love with that pick. I think
Starting point is 00:08:55 really wanted a seven. No, I met it, but it was more, yeah, like, exactly. I was just like, I wish the number was up there. You wanted to know. You were always going to bet the game, and we'll get to that game in a sec. But, but you just wanted a better number. Yeah. I ended up buying the seven and, you know, regrettably paid a little extra on the juice.
Starting point is 00:09:15 But our theory with Green Bay, and this is going to be, I made a note already for Tuesday in our script, we got to talk about Green Bay what Green Bay is doing on defense and what a good coach Matt LaFleur is. Our theory was that Green Bay would not run the ball as well as did against the Colts. They did.
Starting point is 00:09:39 Our theory was that Malik Willis would not play well as well as he did against the Colts. He did. Our theory was that this Titans team was really just a couple of mistakes away from being 2 and 0. They're not. Our reality is that we knew we were stepping into it with Will Levis,
Starting point is 00:09:59 and the Packers ended up with nearly 200 yards rushing. They averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Malik Willis threw for more than 200 yards, ran for 73 yards. Levis has a nice looking stat line, like 2834, 262 touches. Also fumbled and had a pick six was sacked eight times. You get what you bet. I'm gonna say like he had nice stats, but you nailed it. It's like, I thought you'd have a good day.
Starting point is 00:10:29 I thought it was a good match for their team, but the defensive plan, whatever it was just awful. And I knew we were in trouble early in the game where they weren't spying Malik. And it's just like, why would you not do that of all things to do with this kid? Don't let him get comfortable running the ball because that's gonna give him, let him build confidence.
Starting point is 00:10:48 And like you just said, LaFleur, man, what can you say? The guy has been incredible, especially when he coaches, his team is an underdog. So, yeah, like you said, our one miss, it's what's so brutal, our one miss we end up putting the contest. And I just, there's no way I could have gone back and have known just because same thing we're going to talk about this upcoming week. They're 0 for 3 now, 0 for 3 against the spread,
Starting point is 00:11:13 this Titans team. Eventually the value will come the other way, but maybe me and you just stay away until they make a change of the QB position. So it's funny you mentioned that. I would say there was one point where Callahan, Brian Calhahn, the coach who has been sort of charmingly candid about his feelings for Willis. Yeah. During the week after cussing him out last week and then saying how much he basically, you know, in not so many words, kind of thought he was an idiot this week and became a great. conversation starter for everyone in the media. I actually wondered when will we see the Titans
Starting point is 00:11:57 backup quarterback. I was surprised we didn't. And then I remembered, I had to look it up. What it was, it was Mason Rudolph, who by the way was brilliant last year with the Steelers. So why not put them in? Like give your team a shot when they're playing so badly. I do wonder if there will be some kind of conversation in Tennessee now to get Mason Rudolph in, similar to Carolina, right? Like, get a guy. If you think your team might be close, get a guy in there who can do something with it. But Matt LaFleur, God, he is good. It just is.
Starting point is 00:12:40 I know. I love that you just spent about 10 minutes in this game, though. Let's keep it moving. All right. We're going to talk a lot more about Matlofloor. Here's one thing. One more thing else. You're gushing over Matt LaFleur right now.
Starting point is 00:12:51 It's like, all right, dude, you just beat up Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. And Chad's going, ape shit. The Packers are also, they are flying to the ball defensively under Jeff Halfley. They have as many picks in three games as they did all of last season. That's seven picks. Pretty good. Yeah. Pretty good.
Starting point is 00:13:11 All right. Let's talk about some winners. There we go. Denver plus six and a half of Tampa. No notes. As they say in Hollywood, no notes. Denver was nearly flawless. All of the luck trends that we like to talk about,
Starting point is 00:13:30 this was a 30-point luck gap, meaning the bucks have been one of the luckiest, the Broncos have been one of the least lucky. We can get into all of it. Tell me what you saw. Yeah, first reaction would be, we thought what Detroit would do what the Denver did, right? Attacked the secondary.
Starting point is 00:13:50 Like there were holes and openings in the secondary that you could attack and they were able to do it. But unlike the lines who kept stalling in the red zone, they shockingly didn't, right? Bow Knicks looked comfortable in the red zone, had a couple nice plays, you know, pulling the ball down and running it, which is what we want to see out of him, right? I'd rather see him take a sack in the red zone than him keep throwing those interceptions. And so the most surprising part was just how bad Baker played. He never looked comfortable. Denver's defense that are a great job against them.
Starting point is 00:14:21 And yeah, Jack, giving you your flowers. Like that's the kind of number where it's the dream, right? When you get a double digits, when you have a six and a half point dog, you're just like, I have no worries where, you know, we're going to talk about the Vikings. It's never really that far away because, you know, we're getting only a point in a half or two and a half. But when you have that six and a half, seven and a half kind of numbers late in these,
Starting point is 00:14:42 games, it's just like, you know, there was no way that we weren't going to cover that number in Denver. So looking at the matchup wise going forward for them, I think they learned a lot about, you know, having Bow Nix kind of just get outside the pocket more. I think that was really pretty, you know, pretty telling in that game that Sean Payton wanted to do that with him. So, yeah, once again, Denver's defense, that to me is probably the most shocking part, how well they played against that Bucks offense. Yeah, I thought they played really well. I thought there'd be more points scored in the game because Denver's defense has been good, not great, and because the reason we liked Denver so much was Vita Vaya's out.
Starting point is 00:15:23 Another defensive lineman is out. Their secondary is incredibly banged up, and everything the lines did wrong, Sean Payton did right this week with Bo Nix. Also, all of the luck trends, sort of the, the, you know, the, you. Regressions on turnovers, fourth down conversions, performance in the red zone, scoring touchdowns. All the things that they have suffered from or that have happened to them went their way this week. Like, here's my list of things the Broncos did that indicated sort of a luck turnaround. Bo Nicks first three plays, three for three, 59 yards, two plays, past plays of
Starting point is 00:16:11 20 plus yards, scored a rushing T.D. At the end of the drive, even after he had had to delay a game in the red zone. After picking off Baker Mayfield, the Broncos and Bo Nix fumbled. That fumble didn't count because the bucks were off-sides. They went for it on fourth and goal,
Starting point is 00:16:33 inches away, pitched it wide. The guy barely snuck into the end zone. like they even got a fumble by Tampa in the red zone this was just so enjoyable like it was so stress free i couldn't have been happier with this game i wished every game i wish this was the only game that i was watching the whole day yeah it's also we got lucky where you know people overreacted to a lot of these teams after two games right and i think bucks is one of those teams the saints a game we'd even talk about where you know i really like to and you never got there, but I got why the Saints were pretty damn scary through two games.
Starting point is 00:17:14 And I understood your hesitation with it. And I thought to myself, man, they can't be this good. They're just, they had to come back to Earth. I think just like the Saints, the Bucks, we saw Derek Carr come back to Earth and we saw Baker come back to Earth, right? Even if Baker had a good game, as a whole, that team, the Bucks have so many injuries to that defense. It was just like, man, if they can get the ball moving on Denver here, I just never thought
Starting point is 00:17:38 we would have a problem with the back in that side. And little did we know that just the Bucks, the whole team wasn't going to show up today, right? So like you said, I think it was, what, it was 17 nothing at one point or 14 nothing, whenever it was, I just said to myself, okay, Chad nailed this one. This number is never gonna be a sweat.
Starting point is 00:17:56 Here's the good news. We never have to bet the Broncos or Bonix again. We've been waiting for the exact right number and the exact right spot to take advantage of their number in an overinflation, undervalued spot. This was it. And by the way, you mentioned the Ravens, you mentioned the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:18:15 I do want to, like, get into those games. So we are going to get through the last game that we did bet and that we did win. Because I think the games that we left out are just as fascinating as the games that we put in. So I do want to get to a bunch of those games. Yeah. The last game that we bet today, and again, reminder, we got the Falcons tonight plus three and a half, the Jacks plus five and a half tomorrow in our favorites contest. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.
Starting point is 00:18:46 It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:19:11 A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
Starting point is 00:19:41 One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need. need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at a podcast. I'm Sam Jay.
Starting point is 00:20:28 And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here. unpack what went down and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.
Starting point is 00:20:56 Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. People. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,
Starting point is 00:21:32 We get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person
Starting point is 00:21:50 while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keer Gaines, we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast,
Starting point is 00:22:08 learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports.
Starting point is 00:22:32 And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We had Houston at Minnesota plus two and a half. You've been on this since Sunday. Like it was three and a half on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:22:57 Last night when we did the show, you bet it then. Kept betting it. You were on it today, Unconvince Me, 11 a.m. Eastern, watch it in YouTube in the Action Network app. This was your best bet of the day on sides, even when it got down to one and a half.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Here's something my son said to me while we were watching the game. I don't think there were any odds on anyone saying this in the world when this season started. Is Sam Darnold the MVP of the league right now? No.
Starting point is 00:23:35 But he is playing really good. I'll give him that. I mean, you can't hate on it where it's like, he has complete confidence the offense. And there was a couple throws in that game where big time throws, right? Like to the sideline, only his guy could catch it. Pretty impressive throws.
Starting point is 00:23:49 But I told you my main reason for liking that spot, it was definitely Brian Flores in that defense. And you saw immediately that, you know, CJ was not comfortable. Like just the different looks he can set up with that defense and the Vikings is, you know, to me, that's been the game changer this season.
Starting point is 00:24:06 As much as Sam Donald is as well. Like I'm not gonna, again, I'm not trying to knock Sam Donald. He's played so well here, but that defense really showed up. And you know, you talked about it. Like it's always a little scary when we give out these numbers on Sunday
Starting point is 00:24:21 and then I'm betting it all week and then we get to this point and you're right. It was all way down to one, one and a half and it's just like, okay, what at what point does this become the public chalky side? And luckily, a ton of money came in late that gave me a little confidence on that Houston team
Starting point is 00:24:36 where it's like, okay, at least there are people bet on the other side. And that was just another no-brainer, right? I think it was 14-0, nothing right from the get-go. And 14-0 with two turnovers as well, which is like pretty shocking for that Houston side. And once Sam kind of got into a groove, that offense was just clicking.
Starting point is 00:24:54 So even when he got banged up, he came back in and he still looked pretty good. That's one thing I'm definitely checking for is it sounds crazy, but definitely interested his injury report and what he's like going forward. But, you know, he played to end the game. And, you know, we said the same thing about Herbert last week. And then it popped up this week.
Starting point is 00:25:13 They didn't look right. So I wanted to bet. We'll talk again, the lines coming up. But they're a team I kind of like this upcoming week. And now with the unknown of Sam Darnow, what his injury might be. They're definitely a team I'm going to wait on, not bet right away. Sam Darnel's odds for MVP are 50 to 1 right now. his stats through three games,
Starting point is 00:25:37 657 passing yard, 68% completion rate, eight touchdowns, only two picks, a 97-yard touchdown pass wins against the Giants, Niners, and Texans. That's good. Why wouldn't you take a flyer on Sam,
Starting point is 00:25:54 Kevin O'Connell is locked in, and he deserves as much credit as Matt LaFleor. They might be the two best. coaches in the NFL right now. Matt LaFlorne, Kevin O'Connell, two best coaches in the NFL are in the same division as the Bears. And you nailed it. You nailed it this game. You've been saying it all week. You just said, Brian Flores, what he could do to this Texans defense in C.J. Stroud, which is exactly what they did. He had two picks, five sacks. They were only four to 14 on third down. They were playing, it seemed like they were playing behind the chains and definitely
Starting point is 00:26:32 they were trying to come from behind this entire game. Yeah. Like you nailed. Simon, you nailed this handicap. Just nailed it. That was good week.
Starting point is 00:26:47 You know what's even better? Simon. This was our Tommy John Big Balls Bed of the Week. There we go. I don't know if you know this or not, but ever since Tommy John started to sponsor.
Starting point is 00:27:02 the show, we are undefeated with our big balls bet of the week. Are we really? Yeah. Can you believe that? We're three in no with our big balls bet of the week. I went back and looked and it's true. We are three and oh. I think I feel so much more comfortable making these big balls bets.
Starting point is 00:27:26 We barely sweat these bets. Is that a coincidence? And we definitely didn't last week with Green Bay, so I guess you're right. I don't think it's a coincidence that ever since Tommy John started sponsoring it, we're more comfortable and less sweaty. All right, these are the games we left off the table. Panthers plus six and a half. I mean, we wanted to do it.
Starting point is 00:27:52 I feel like we did a disservice to our fans because we believed in Andy Dalton. We gave up the money line. What's that? We gave up the money line the round robin. Give away on the money line. We gave them the money line. We didn't put them in the contest. We believe this team was better than their performance.
Starting point is 00:28:08 It was a Bryce Young issue. I just promised the people we wouldn't do it. I just, they were, as much as we loved it, I just knew they didn't want to hear it. So it's just like, let's let them see it. And then they'll maybe believe it.
Starting point is 00:28:19 But I knew with a couple of psychopaths who arrived with us on our money line bets were like, they'll bet their money line with us. And hopefully they did because, you know, we gave out them and the Giants and that combo on the round Robin.
Starting point is 00:28:29 was a pretty, pretty, pretty nice payout. Pretty, pretty good payout for the Panthers, the giants. I forgot who else was in the Ron Robin. Not the Parlay, but the Ron Robin. Does anyone remember? Vikings were in there. Vikings were in there. I think we have Atlanta left.
Starting point is 00:28:51 And I'm guessing we lost on Arizona. I think we might have had Arizona too. Yeah. We also felt like the Raiders had no business. being six and a half point favorites. Like, just weren't good enough. And then Gardner Minshue got replaced at the end of the game. Did he really?
Starting point is 00:29:09 Yeah. Yeah. Eden O'Connell came in. Eagles, you love them. I was skeptical. I feel like we were kind of both right. Because at the end of the day, they needed a miracle. Like, if two Saints players don't bump into each other,
Starting point is 00:29:28 with one of them trying to guard Dallas Goddard running across the middle with 75 seconds left, they don't get the ball to him on 3rd and 16, and he doesn't sprint down the sideline and put them in a position to score a touchdown. That was a miracle cover. Like you used up some of your good karma for the season on this. So the team that lost their number one receiver, their number two receiver, and their left tackle got lucky in that game, Chad. Is that what you're saying right now?
Starting point is 00:29:58 a little bit yeah I mean you're a Bears fan so you don't even know what good quarterback play looks like so I'm not gonna oh my god yeah I mean dude I was ready to go stick a bunch of four sales signs in Siriani's yard I mean the coach email practice in this game in so many different ways was just brutal but I the reason I couldn't believe you didn't want to do it was just like dude we were catching Dennis Allen after two wins in a row when not like you couldn't get more hyped and it was just like this guy is going to blow it in some way and they did i mean i can't believe they didn't win that game at home in that spot um yeah the eagle's defense came to play for
Starting point is 00:30:39 sure watching all that game like their run defense was really good jalen carter probably had his best game as an eagle um but the the barclay signing i mean wow yeah like even though you know he he let us down last last week this this game is really why he's such a special talent like everything he does he gets better as the games go along and i believe the saints hadn't given up like a hundred yard rushing at home in like three years and i think he put up 146 so um that that that was definitely the the right side um but i agree with you where you know i thought i don't know if the eagles didn't get three or we had a turnover in the red zone but all these things have happened where it's just like you know what people are right about jail and herds he's just loose with the ball he doesn't
Starting point is 00:31:29 protect it he plays sloppy but you know he had a big drive there at the end of the game that's just going to shut people up for another week so i don't think him or syriana out of the woods yet that's a big time win like that saint's team they had back-to-back putting up 40 points and they had chad scared which is just mind-blown because you hate dennis allen when i think of people who shit on dennis allen it's you uh so yeah we'll see going forward to saints team but i think all of us can take a deep breath and realize this is not the Rams from 2000, right? So I think we all can agree on that.
Starting point is 00:32:00 No, no. And I, my feeling on this was I was more worried about the Eagles without A.J. Brown. And this is another thing I want us to think about next week, especially the spot that the Eagles are going into. I don't think Dante Smith's going to play either.
Starting point is 00:32:18 I mean, he got hit by defensive lineman that probably has 200 pounds on him right into his head. Yeah, like Wayne Johnson has a concussion now. Devonty Smith has a concussion. This this team is not in great shape in addition to the mistakes, right? Like, it's not just the coaching malpractice. It's an undisciplined team. And they are shooting themselves in the foot. They are so talented when they are all healthy. And Siriani, like, unless they are blowing people out, you cannot count on this team
Starting point is 00:32:52 who necessarily win unless you've got two saints bumping into each other and they're playing against Dennis Allen. And even then, like, it was a miracle. Yeah, it's just, they're again, though, they're, what, a catch-away from Barclay
Starting point is 00:33:09 from being three and no right now and three really big wins to start the season. So it is tough where it's like, I agree with everything you're saying, but it's like they have so much talent that every week's going to be hard to take against them unless we're getting a decent amount of points.
Starting point is 00:33:22 So they're a team that that game right there kind of feels like they determined their season, right? If they would have lost that game, things could have got ugly pretty quick for Sierraina and that Eagles team. So that was a huge one for that Eagles team. Also, you might be able to credit me for the win. I may have jinxed the Saints because when they were about right before that third and 16 miracle play, I put in my notebook, New Orleans and Minutes. Minnesota, three and oh, who to thunk it. Oh, God.
Starting point is 00:33:58 I did it for you. Yeah, not so fast. Lee Corso. Yeah. Colts minus one and a half. I liked it the whole week. You were suspect. I actually think we were both right on this one, too.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Like, even though. Yeah, thank God we didn't bet that game. Oh, my God. Even though Caleb Williams, like, consistently confused Colts defensive backs for Bears' receivers, this game was seven to three. until the last plays of the third quarter, it was 14 to 9 with five minutes left in the game. The Bears even had a shot like in the final couple of minutes.
Starting point is 00:34:33 The Colts did exactly what we said they were going to do, right? Yeah. We're going to run the ball against a middling bears rush defense. They gained 150 yards. They had multiple explosive runs, including a long Jonathan Taylor run. So, like, I feel like, this is similar to the cult to the saints and the eagles and that
Starting point is 00:34:57 I wanted to bet it end up being the right side. You were skeptical. You were probably right as well. I'm really glad we didn't put it in the contest. Yeah, I would say, though, if you're a bearish fan, the things to be excited about is whenever you do get rid of this offensive coordinator, there is so many things that build off with Caleb Williams. Like there are little things he does.
Starting point is 00:35:22 you were just like, man, this kid is so incredibly talented. But whatever offense you guys are running, I just hate it. I just, I've watched too much barriers. I care to even admit to this point through three games. But yeah, the Colts team, Anthony Richardson, I think we talked a little bit about going to the year where it's just like this kid just needs game reps. It's going to be a lot of ugly, but there's going to be some good in there.
Starting point is 00:35:46 And that pick he threw into the end zone was just atrocious. Like it's just it's something you don't really see in the pros, how bad it was, where it's like there was three guys in front of the ball and he threw it right to your guy. Man, that was just so bad. So the Colts team going forward, Chad, I don't know. I'm not going to bet them as confident as I am. I think it's talking about our situations and the different matchups where. Yes. You know, some teams will match up well for them.
Starting point is 00:36:11 But we talk going into this game, their secondary is really suspect. And I think Caleb almost threw for 400 yards against them. Like I think it was like 380 what he put up. which I mean you've watched him as well like that's that's an insane amount for even him so um yeah that that one's right like wasn't even one of my bigger bets but i remember early in the week we were talking about and it's just like yeah you're right the the Colts were owing to back against the wall it's just like the ramps today right you back these teams that are super desperate and they usually find a way and um they they certainly found a way and it's just the bears can stop shooting themselves
Starting point is 00:36:47 on the foot the only bright side i wrote to my buddies and uh our Bears text chain that is like so apoplectic and upset and talking about the offensive coordinator. I told everybody it happened to be on one of Caleb Williams picks in the second half, it was his 32nd pass of the game. And that's when I told everybody that for our betting investment club, I had bet a parlay of DJ Moore over 62 and a half receiving yards, which you gave out on Convinced Me,
Starting point is 00:37:26 which he got on a Hail Mary deflection at the end of the first half where he ended up being down at the one and the Bears didn't score, but it got him to 77 yards in the first half. And Caleb Williams over 31.5 passing attempts thanks to Dr. Nick, your co-host on Bet What Happens Live today.
Starting point is 00:37:44 So we did win that parlay. Maybe all the happier. Even though we didn't win the game, we did win a nice little parley. Fall taller. Go ahead. I was just say, if you haven't listened to me and chat and check that commenced me, you are really missing out, right?
Starting point is 00:37:59 Sean Kerner, one of the other pickers on the show, he had a 60-0 streak heading into that Sunday show. Yes. And, you know, today, Chris Raybon, I believe he's 6-0 on his picks in the app. So he went 3-0 in the show. I went 3-0 on the show. And, you know, we're through three weeks here. The worst week I've had on that,
Starting point is 00:38:18 my worst picks on that show are 3-1. So, you know, week one, I went three and one, week two, went three in row. And it's looking like week three, I'm going to go three and one again if Atlanta doesn't come through for us tonight. So, yeah, that convinced me show. It was just been money this year. And, you know, like you already talked about, we bet dogs and unders. It's been a great year for dogs and unders. Tell me again, why didn't you, why you didn't make me pick Baltimore?
Starting point is 00:38:46 I mean, you were being soft about it, Chad. Let's be honest. You're just like, I gave you all these stats from Evan that were just insane. It was just like, it's Lamar against the NFCs, 20 and 1, straight up. All we needed to do was straight up win, and it was money in the bank. But your hesitation was, I don't trust Baltimore's defense, which doesn't look too crazy every time we talk about. They just let them come all the way back, right?
Starting point is 00:39:13 They're up 28 to 6. The game ended 28 to 5. So when you're reasoning for it, it is valid. Like they don't really have an identity on defense. But my reason to you was they might have one of the worst run defenses of football and one of the worst run games of football offensively, Dallas. Like that's a big issue this season. We saw it today.
Starting point is 00:39:33 I mean, the Ravens could get as anything they wanted running the ball, especially with Derek Henry. So, yeah, that was my scuttrellette pick, never in doubt until that very end there. But, yeah, it's tough we missed on it. Your hesitation was valid. I was just like, I can't see this team being 0 and 3 against the spread in 0 and 3 straight up to start the season that Ravens team. They were unlucky in their first two games. So great to see them bounce back even though they don't have a starting kicker on their team.
Starting point is 00:40:03 Justin Tucker, another miss today. I can't take it. Yeah. No, it's crazy how they just age like that, kickers. It's insane what has happened to him. Do you think we would have replaced Tennessee with the Ravens? Like was that what we were going to do? Yeah, because we were talking about replacing a favorite
Starting point is 00:40:21 because I knew there was no chance you were going to take Denver out. And I wasn't really pushing it either because it was just like, we're getting a good number of the contest. It wasn't five and a half anymore. It was up to six and a half. So it's like, we'll keep that. Vikings was no doubt or two and a half. Maybe the only hesitation I had today when I woke up was our Jaguars pick,
Starting point is 00:40:39 just thinking about it. But I don't think I ever would try to make you switch it out just because I've already bet it so much this week. So, yeah, like I said all the time, that it's hard we need to try to be both on the same side and it's rare that i can convince you that sunday morning aside you don't love your hesitation on the ravens like i said was valid that that defense going forward that's going to be the reason we're a little scary to take them if the number is not right right but we talk yeah lamar under three points so if he's less than three
Starting point is 00:41:05 point favorite now he's 23 and seven against the spread in his career it's damn good it's it's really that's why i remember i took him scroch cliquette you're like oh my god you're taking the chalk It's just like, chalk sometimes wins. And that was one of those sometimes that wins. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Starting point is 00:41:33 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:41:57 Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.
Starting point is 00:42:31 The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:42:55 Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:43:11 Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Then you're finishing that sentence.
Starting point is 00:43:40 Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.
Starting point is 00:44:08 I'm talking, Tript Fantine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Starting point is 00:44:35 Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway.
Starting point is 00:44:51 Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became, one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports.
Starting point is 00:45:14 And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, let's talk about week four lines here. Bears are one-point favorites at home. You like in that spot against the Rams?
Starting point is 00:45:43 I don't hate it. No, you should like it. That is, I'm with you. I would not bet it yet. I do think we might be able to get a plus number. What do you think? I know, I agree, especially with the Rams where they come back. They came back today, but there is a big difference between coming back against division
Starting point is 00:45:59 rival who you are so familiar with at home and then going on the road. Like, think about last week the Rams got blown out by the Cardinals in the same way the week before they had played so well. This is geared for a letdown and the bears are in a position to overachieve learning from mistakes, planning against a team that is so beat up. Like, we don't know who's going to be on the field. And it's actually a great matchup for your defense against the Rams team. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:46:34 So I saw that and I immediately thought, oh, yeah, I like the bear. I'm going to throw a little bit on just in just in case you're right in the professional with you coming on the Bears, but I just, I can see the public hammering this Rams team now. They just, everyone hates this Bears team. I just think everyone's totally off them at this point. So I think we might be getting a good number on that. The other game that jumped out at me, don't laugh at me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:01 Green Bay is a very short home favorite against Minnesota. Yeah, honestly, I bet it just because I bet it before the games today, just in case Jordan and Love did come back. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah. So I like that too for early bet. Yeah, even though that is tough throwing Jordan Lovin against his Vikings defense because they're going to be bringing the heat on his ass.
Starting point is 00:47:27 There's no doubt they're going to make him test that leg. But I think you're right. I'm going to grab it now just because this is a key number of two. Look at that. You think I'm right. I got two games that I'm looking at and you're like, oh, yeah. You know what? You know what I like, though.
Starting point is 00:47:40 Just betting these ugly home favorites. Probably. Wait. I'm going to give you a chalk bet that I made right away before we even came on the air. Okay, tell me. Cowboys, minus five and a half, Thursday night football in the Meadowlands. Don't they beat the Giants by 30 points every time they play? Interesting.
Starting point is 00:47:59 This is the only team DAC beats up. So this number of look ahead was minus seven. After the loss and the Giants win, it's moved under a key number now. So I hate it because it's so chalky and it's a standalone island game. But I'm just going to grab it now because I think it goes back above the 6th, Jett. So this is just grabbing the number before it moves. No way this will be our big balls, Simon says, any of that most likely. But I'm going to grab it now.
Starting point is 00:48:26 I love this Cowboys in this bounceback spot. They've lost two games in a row, both at home, both embarrassing. This is the type of spot where they go on the row and they just beat the absolute shit of the Giants. They're not that good of a team. They played Deshaun Watson today, which is the reason they look so good. I think you said they had eight sacks or something like that. So yeah, this is a nice spot for the Cowboys to get right. And just a typical letdown spot for this Giants team.
Starting point is 00:48:56 Any other games? I have one more game that I'm spying a little bit, just a little bit. The only other game that really jumped out, and it's just in case our Jaguars bet comes through, it's the Ravens a minus two and a half. I just gave you that. I just gave you a little morest that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:20 It's interesting to me, I was leaning the other way. The bills. No. I was looking at the Jags as four and a half point dogs on the road against the Texans thinking that number is going to get smaller
Starting point is 00:49:35 if our Jags bet. I like that thought. That's what I liked. Yeah, I'll be honest though. If the Jags cover and do well against the bills, you expect them to let down. Yeah, I'm going to hammer Houston at home in this kind of spot.
Starting point is 00:49:50 So I get what you're coming from. That actually actually interesting side, but I can't touch it. I honestly am glad you to bring up. I think you're going to try to get me on Denver here right away. It's seven and a half. No. That's how I feel about it where it's just like,
Starting point is 00:50:07 man, is that tempting? They know us, though. They know it pretty well where it's like, If this was six and a half, seven and a half, I wouldn't touch it, but it's seven and a half. I'm just like, should I take Denver here? But you're right. You're right. What did I say?
Starting point is 00:50:19 What did I say? That was the exact right spot this week. We never have to bet the Broncos again as long as we live. We are done. We are done. We can go back to betting the Panthers every week. So I'll tell people right now, though, another really sharp side that I'm not going to bet right now because I think I'll get better value on as the week goes along.
Starting point is 00:50:39 The bucks are plus two right now. against the Eagles. So this is Eagles on a back-to-back road after a huge emotional win against the States, playing against a Bucks team that just got embarrassed, I'm blown out. I mean, all the money's gonna come on in the Eagles, right? So I'm gonna wait, see if I can get above
Starting point is 00:50:57 a key number of plus two and a half, plus three. But that's actually a really nice spot for the Eagles to have a letdown. So yeah, people don't be mad, but the Bucks, I can already tell that's gonna be a side me and chat are most likely gonna end up on it's just they have had the Eagles number the last couple of years and I know you can be like well in the playoffs that was like the Eagles were just a totally different team and it was a
Starting point is 00:51:22 season I totally get that position I honestly think it's the coaching match with Todd Bowles has just done well against Siriana he kind of knows what the Eagles want to do so that's a number that I didn't want to give out on the show yet but it's something I want people to be aware of that like if this does get up to three no you should grab it right away because I'm definitely going to grab it when it gets there. Well, look, we just don't know what this Eagles team is going to have. That's what I mean. They're so banged up.
Starting point is 00:51:48 Yeah. Like, we just don't know at this point. All right. So the early lines that we're sort of touching on, bears minus one. Definitely bears. Pat, what's that? Definitely bears. Packers minus two.
Starting point is 00:52:01 You mentioned Cowboys minus five and a half at the Meadowlands on Thursday night football. That's my biggest, like, early bet right now. We're hedging right now like Baltimore, two and a half, Jags plus four and a half. I'm interested in Jags, you're interested in Baltimore, depending on the outcome of the game on Monday night. And we're not betting it yet. We're hoping the number goes higher. We're hoping the number goes up to two and a half three, the bucks as underdogs against the Eagles. All right.
Starting point is 00:52:36 As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and now new Bet365 customers get $200 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet365 must be 21 or older and present in. Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live on Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel and in the Action Network app. We'll cover the whole
Starting point is 00:53:35 NFL week four, board and announce our week three contest winner. You can still win weekly prizes in the contest. Favorites. That action network.com. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your Paws. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want.
Starting point is 00:53:54 Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is available 24-7 at 1-800 Gambler. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Starting point is 00:54:18 Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:54:37 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 00:55:01 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:55:22 Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:55:45 A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
Starting point is 00:56:14 podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.
Starting point is 00:56:44 Listen and learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.