The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Coaching and The Masters with Kevin Clark

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

The NFL is evolving. The Draft is approaching. So too is "A Tradition Unlike Any Other." Here to discuss everything from Cam Ward's draft stock to best bets at The Masters is beloved ESPN media person...ality Kevin Clark, host of Omaha Productions' THIS IS FOOTBALL. He joins Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter for a lively conversation about changes taking place among NFL head coaches, plus all the latest happenings in Augusta. . #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?
Starting point is 00:00:09 Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.
Starting point is 00:00:27 We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from. some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:48 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it was good. y'all, you're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games.
Starting point is 00:01:04 This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to,
Starting point is 00:01:24 listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast, Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise,
Starting point is 00:01:43 breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
Starting point is 00:02:20 I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today, I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional writer, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. What a weekend we had, huh? Brother, listen, I know you're just. just rolling out of bed.
Starting point is 00:02:40 Because you were in Atlantic City playing poker in a tournament till all hours. I was in Florida, which I believe is the home state of our guest coming up this weekend at a wedding in Miami. And then I went to Palm Beach for the day for a project that I'm working on. In the wedding, this was like right out of a commercial. This was a wedding. A lot of people liked to gamble at this wedding.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Very high class affair in Miami. But it's a big gambling crowd. Really big gambling crowd. And at the wedding, of course, during the speeches and even when everyone was dancing during dinner, there were four or five different phones in between two different people showing first the Florida Auburn game and then the Duke Houston game and the number of people sweating that total for the Duke Houston game so many people had the under 137 and a half I think or over 36 and a half. It was landing right on that number. It was super exciting. Now, there's the best.
Starting point is 00:04:11 Those are the best, especially where if you're in on it and you hear loud moans across the crowd, you know everyone's looking at the same thing. It has nothing to do with the wedding. It's everyone just on their phone. It's so true, by the way. Those games. And this was, this was, there were a lot of gambling, uh, industry people at this wedding, including at my table were people representing, I think, three different sports books, as well as an original investor in action, like when it was just not even a company yet, and a guy who runs a venture fund that is focused on the betting space. So everybody had very specific needs. It was really, really funny. Yeah, I thought it was pretty interesting. The whole market's crashing, but all sports book stocks were
Starting point is 00:04:58 up because Duke lost. So that was a pretty interesting tell of that. That's how big of a deal it was for Duke to lose, these sports books and make some money off that college basketball. That's right. And guess what? We enter into another very special week for gamblers, an annual right of spring,
Starting point is 00:05:16 a tradition unlike any other. And last night for the finals, we saw Jim Nance as a fan of Houston, getting ready, priming his pipes for the Masters. It is Masters Week. Master's Tees off Thursday morning from Augusta, one of America's most hallowed sporting events, always one of the best, most popular sporting events
Starting point is 00:05:39 on the entire spring calendar, joining us to break it all down. He has become one of the most familiar faces in modern sports media. You could say he's like the archetype for modern sports media with the way he looks at sports, his focus on analytics, his focus on the,
Starting point is 00:05:58 athletes who come on his very popular podcast, how he's morphed and evolved as a media personality. He's the host of the very popular show. This is football. You'll see him all over ESPN airwaves, including on first take later this week. He is also a very passionate golf fan and appearing on ESPN's betcasts for golf. Welcome to the show. Kevin Clark. What an intro. Thank you. You good, right? Thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah, no, this is one of my favorite weeks of the year. I like that, and Chad, you and I've talked about this, I love the golf gambling space. So the fact that I get to go on this show, I'm going to, I'm going on ESPN, Ben, on Wednesday. Like, I just, everybody needs to hear my bad takes. This needed it to escape my golf group chats.
Starting point is 00:06:46 And now we just need to break contained and everybody has to hear it, including on some of these broadcasts going forward. Yeah, it's going to be ugly. There's no doubt about it. because there's no way when you're trying to pick from the field, you've got a good shot at being right. The odds tell us that it's almost impossible. Like, sure, you can pick Scotty Schaeffler. You can pick Rory McElroy. I'm seeing, like, Schaeffler's at plus 440.
Starting point is 00:07:11 McElroy is at 6 to 1. Moracca is about 14 to 1. Deschambeau was about 14 to 1. But, like, those are the lame picks. And so we're going to get to the good ones. in the show. We're also going to talk a lot of football. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365.
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Starting point is 00:08:07 Kevin, I just mentioned in the intro, you are a master of media. And to me, what's interesting about your career truly is how you have morphed from Beat Writer at the Journal, which, To me, by the way, has the best sports section in the country. I think the people who write for the Wall Street Journal do the most interesting stories. Robert O'Connell, to me, writing about the NBA, he gets every story that I'm interested in the moment. Like, I just think he's great. Explain the evolution for you from beat reporter to analytics guy, which is a lot of what you were doing at the journal and then at Ringer.
Starting point is 00:08:50 and then to broad football analyst. Yeah, so I was covering the dolphins when I was in college for a paper in Fort Lauderdale got hired when I was still in college by a friend of yours, Chad, Sam Walker. And I commuted my last semester in college from New York to Miami as much as I possibly could. I basically ran out of my diploma and then mail me a diploma anyway. Like I think I did the bear. I would basically email my press just like, listen, just give me a checklist here and I'll go through it. And somehow I have a diploma.
Starting point is 00:09:19 by the grace of God. And so I started covering the Knicks as a 22, 23-year-old. That was right before Carmelo Anthony came in. And then Carmel Anthony, obviously, Mania changed the tone of the beat. And what I realized was I'm with Frank Asola. I'm with Mark Berman. I'm with Alan Hahn.
Starting point is 00:09:37 And I've got sources, but not like them. And so I was such already an appreciator, that's a word of analytics. But what I was starting to do was say, hey, why don't I call up XYZ analytical person and say, hey, this is the best way for Amari and Carmelo to get together, that kind of thing.
Starting point is 00:09:56 And I was getting a ton of attention through that because, first of all, the team notices, you know, the coaching staff notices when you're doing this analogue stuff. This is 2011 when nobody's talking about this stuff. Nobody. I mean, you remember. Like, it was happening in baseball. It wasn't really happening in basketball.
Starting point is 00:10:11 And so if you say, like I remember I wrote a piece about how, you know, at one point, the guys they traded for Carmelo, if you just put them on one team, had more windchairs combined than the Carmelo team. Like, that was getting traction. And so I started to just go down that roll, that rabbit hole as much as I could and just figure out what guys are talking about. You end up getting sources within the organization because they care about athletics or
Starting point is 00:10:39 they want to tell you about it. And so for me, it was just like a natural. I always, like when I was in college and it's the Dolphins writer, I was number three guy. So you have to just figure out your lane. Like if you don't figure out your lane, A, you're not going to get in the paper. B, no one's going to read you. And so for me, I got into the analytics part of it because A, I liked it,
Starting point is 00:10:56 but B, it was just the way I could compete with Franco Sola and Mark Berman, who've had sources at MSG for 25 years. And so then you get into the NFL beat and it's the same thing. Nobody's talking about, I mean, I remember there was a guy who told me, this is 2012, that he was an early analytics guy in the NFL. And there were like five analytics guys in 2012. And that he had an office and he said to the coaching staff, he was like, hey, anytime you have a question, come in here, I can run any data set you need. I can tell you about play calling.
Starting point is 00:11:28 I can tell you about evaluation. I'm here. He said for months, months, he was ignored, completely ignored. No coach would engage with him. Nobody did any questions. And then one day, a position coach comes in and says, I have a question. And the guy perks up and he's like, all right, here comes the analytics breakthrough. And the coach goes, can you give us a question?
Starting point is 00:11:46 can you give us our record when we win the turnover battle, which is like the most like you could probably in the back of a newspaper somewhere. But that was their idea of analytics is like win-loss record when you win the turnover battle. And I realized there was a lot of untapped potential there where you have these guys who no one's paying attention to that understand the sport. And I never, football will never be like baseball and basketball where you can explain the entire sport through analytics. I still believe in toughness. I still believe in things like running the ball and they're running back position, all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:12:18 But like, I just realized there was, no one was writing about this stuff. And you can explain a lot of football through it. And so that's just how I did it. And then eventually I kind of branched out, started podcasting at the Ringer, did the Omaha ESPN thing a couple of years ago. And so really, it's all through the same vein, which is like going, going where it takes you, right? Right in the wave where it takes you, as Pearl Jam said. And it's kind of everything is case by case. Everything's the next step.
Starting point is 00:12:43 Okay. this podcasting is exploding, I'll do this. It was never some grand plan. It was just this makes sense. I'll go do this. Don't you think, though, and Simon, I'm curious about your take on this as well. Analytics to me in football has become so huge. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:02 It's getting harder and harder. While you say it doesn't have the same, I'm not sure if I'm quoting you correctly here, it can't be the same impact that baseball as it has on baseball or basketball because there are a lot of intangibles just about the way the game is played. But it certainly has increased fandom giving people a different entry point into the game. But do you think there are still edges to be found from an analytics point of view? Or has that all been sliced and diced in a way that is impossible to find a new angle? Simon, you go first since you've got to. think about this from a financial point of view yeah i would say that what we've been talking about
Starting point is 00:13:47 analyzing about all these teams adjusting to the fourth down that's been to me the biggest adjustment in this league where you know chat we would joke back in a day i feel like riverboat ron reverer was the one doing it with cam newton and it's like you know you think back to that that feels like a made-up story like what ron rivaire that old dinosaur was going for it on fourth down before everyone else you know, we saw a little bit with Belichick, but it really did feel like Doug Peterson winning that Super Bowl, kind of put it on a different level of all these other teams were just like, okay, let's stop ignoring the nerd in the corner. Let's talk to this guy because clearly the numbers do matter. And I'm just here, Kevin's view of it because I'm trying
Starting point is 00:14:28 to think back now to what first teams I remember doing it. Were the Ravens an early adapter? Like, who in your mind were the first teams to really embrace it and actually use a good tool? Well, you're right. For me, the conversation started after Belichick's failed fourth down, the Kevin Falk fourth and two, you know, catches it and goes short of the goal line. I remember talking to analysts guys and he said, that's when the debate started.
Starting point is 00:14:52 That's when you're bringing on guys to SportsCenter to explain why that was a good idea. Guys who had never been professors, analytics guys, Aaron Chats, guys who were never ever consulted on any of this stuff were all of a sudden on Sunday countdown explaining why it was good the following week. That started the conversation.
Starting point is 00:15:10 agree with the Doug Peterson changed something with his aggression. And then all of a sudden, the Ravens, where it's John Harbaugh, forward thinking, because he has Lamar Jackson, realizes that Lamar Jackson getting two yards is a really easy proposition. And I think from there it goes. I remember talking to Neal Hornsby, who founded Pro Football Focus. And I said, what in 20 years is going to be the bunt of football? Like, where are we going to look and be like, I can't believe they were giving up outs? And he was saying it's the fourth and two, fourth and three punt. That's not basically you're in your own red zone. Unless you're in your own. red zone, just go for it, right?
Starting point is 00:15:42 Unless it's fourth and 14 or whatever. And we're starting to see that now. The aggression there, whether that's the, you know, the tush push is basically automatic. Like, guys understand the short yardage stuff. They understand that getting two yards is really, really easy in this era. And passing the ball. And I doubt that's the one thing. What's funny about it is so I did a piece with Dan Campbell a couple years ago.
Starting point is 00:16:04 He goes four and fourth down all the time, as we know. And he said he likes analytics. He embraces analytics. but it's gut for him that he was with Sean Payton and he wanted to scare defenses. And when Sean Payton would go for it, he'd look over the other sideline and they're scrambling, they're tearing their headsets off, they're saying, we don't have the right personnel in. And he's like, I want to do that. And it's not about analytics.
Starting point is 00:16:27 It's about seeing the coach about to poop his pants. And then the other part of it, and this is something that both I've talked to Matt LaFlor and Dan Campbell about, it's not necessarily about getting three yards on fourth and two. It's we can take a shot on fourth down. That's part of it. It's like, what if we ran a play action pass that was actually 30 yards down field on fourth down? That adds an entirely new level. That's not Frankie Louvoo jumping over the goal line to try to stop the push.
Starting point is 00:16:55 We can score a 50-yard touchdown on this play. So I think the aggression, it's not just fourth down. It's the aggressiveness with which they attack fourth down has changed football. And I completely agree with what you're saying, Simon. But from an analytic standpoint, I think we don't, because it's such a secret sport, maybe baseball has this too. A lot of this is proprietary. So like when tracking data came into football, I had someone, an analytic source, let's call it,
Starting point is 00:17:23 who told me that there's a team that realized that their big defensive tackles who are 330 pounds exert almost all of the energy they exert running from sideline to play, running from sideline to play. So they realized that in substitution situations they should always run the ball to the far sideline of their opponent so that their defensive linemen are always getting tired. So it's stuff like
Starting point is 00:17:48 that. So you wouldn't think, oh like analytics is going to be this. No, no, no. Like you're finding these little edges and you're just saying, hey, maybe this will work. And maybe in the fourth quarter, we've made the defensive tackle, who's 320 pounds, run back and forth of the sideline, 17 times. Now he can't rush the passer. It's little things like. like that that I think are going to be revealed retroactively, kind of like with base,
Starting point is 00:18:11 but we didn't know what was going on with Moneyball until Michael Lewis wrote it, right? We're going to find out in 10 years, hey, this team was doing this. There's no way. I think they, I think someone referred to Hallie Roseman's analytics department with Alec Caliby as like a black box, you know, whatever, almost like the CIA. Like, they're probably doing stuff that would blow our minds. But because it's proprietary, we'll find out in 10 years when they say, hey, you know what we're doing for that team?
Starting point is 00:18:36 X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y'alli I do want to give a little love, Chad, to one team that was ahead of the curve. The 1988 Dallas Carter Cowboys. Now, do you know who that is, Chad? Dallas Carter Cowboys were the team that beat, I think, was it Permian High School? Yeah. In Friday Night Lights, which, Simon, don't fucking challenge me. I love the challenge, you, yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:59 1980s sports writing, which is when I decided I wanted to be a sports writer, And Friday Night Lights was one of the books, so much so in fact that when Gene Hackman died a couple weekends ago, I watched Hoosiers. And the next movie that was served to me was the Billy Bob Thornton Friday Night Lights movie. So I just watched it like two weeks ago. Good man. Yeah, I always think back to that though. It's like, how did this guy in 1988 be ahead of NFL teams by what, 20 years? Like the fact that he was always going for two, never put.
Starting point is 00:19:36 punting, just literally relied on his guys and their athleticism being like, we're the best. We're going to show up here. And now, he was right. We just saw it in the NFL. Like, as an Eagles fan, I will never get over the fact that they punted or they kicked that field goal in that first drive with Jane Dinos with Washington, right? They drove that whole field. And for some reason, they went away from who they were. And we talk all the time.
Starting point is 00:19:58 It's like the coaches that stay true to who they are, right? They always stay going for it on the fourth down. Those are usually teams at the end of the year that's going to come out. So it just popped in we were talking about. It's like, how did this team in 1988 in high school be so far ahead of these college NFL teams? It is, it is funny how those things just start that way. I completely agree. And the one thing that's surprising to me, guys, it has not become mainstream.
Starting point is 00:20:20 Maybe it's getting there. But like, this whole thing of all coaches want to say is, I believe in my guys. We're aggressive. We're tough. And then they punt on fourth and one. You're acting like a coward. The way to enact belief in your guys is to say, we practice getting one. yard all the time, we can get this one yard. We're going to out-tuff you in the trenches and get this
Starting point is 00:20:40 one yard. I'm surprised that hasn't become more mainstream thought, a la Dan Campbell and some of these guys who are trying to do that. Well, that's what's interesting. When you talk about Campbell, you talk about Sean Payton, these guys who are traditionalists when it comes to coaching football, but are progressives when it comes to how they play call and the decisions they make. And to your point, it has nothing to do with the analytics. And that's what's fascinating to me is that there is this quality of football that you've alluded to,
Starting point is 00:21:13 the toughness, the intangibles that happens to play into the analytics. Right? Yeah. So that to me is amazing. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.
Starting point is 00:21:25 What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.
Starting point is 00:21:35 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?
Starting point is 00:21:59 Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast for people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Starting point is 00:22:21 Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funny. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Starting point is 00:24:04 Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The one thing that drives me nuts, and you just talked about this with LaFleur, teams that have a fourth and two, and they decide they're going to go for it. The Saints did this so many times last year with their car. They got a short-yard-s situation
Starting point is 00:24:27 and either in a high-leverage spot on third-down or fourth down, and instead of actually going for the first down, they create a play call where the only option is some over-the-shoulder fade against the sideline that has a very narrow window. A skinny post against cover two. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. What the fuck, Kevin?
Starting point is 00:24:45 Yeah. Why? Like, when you talk to coaches, like you have so many great coaches on your show. You have so many players on your show. You just said LaFleur likes to think about it. Do they think about it realistically? Is it an option?
Starting point is 00:24:58 Like, why are they doing this? I think that part of it, So when I talked to him, it was last year about this particular issue was the last year of Rogers. And you're thinking like Rogers, one of the most accurate quarterback's history. Now, that started dissipate. He had the thumb injury that year. He was banged up all year. I think he was frankly missing throws on fourth and two.
Starting point is 00:25:15 And it was actually extremely frustrating to watch as someone who picked them to win the Super Bowl that year. I picked the Packers in the Super Bowl like all the time. I don't know why. I still do it. I don't know why. I'm going to probably stop this year. I'm off. I'm off the train.
Starting point is 00:25:28 But I think it's kind of what we're talking about. but it's a belief. It's a confidence in saying, like, we can execute this. We practice this over and over and over again. So if I call my best play on fourth and three, it's going to work. And the problem is, is that if it doesn't work, I think there's a sense of panic more, more so. I think the quarterback's eyes dart around because it's not second down where you go,
Starting point is 00:25:49 all right, we're going to just dirt the ball and lived another day. I think there's a sense of if it starts to go, it really goes. And I wonder if maybe more, not conservative plays, but plays with more options. baked into it. Like, you know, we all play Madden or NCAA or whatever. On fourth down, I promise you, I call three routes that can all work. And I wonder sometimes why coaches don't do that. I completely agree with you.
Starting point is 00:26:14 So annoying. Just play Madden, guys. Yeah. You know what to do? Always run a drag and a post and something's going to hit, okay? Just call it like you would on a Tuesday afternoon and playing your baseball. That's really it. you've had Kevin O'Connell on the show.
Starting point is 00:26:32 Yeah. I love Kevin O'Connell. Me too. Going back a couple years, I always felt like he got shafted a little bit for a coach of the year when Brian Dayball got it. And Kevin O'Connell did the same exact thing that Brian Dayball did. And then this year he proved he's just consistently been a better coach by winning the way he did with Sam Darnold. Explain to our listeners some of the things that you learned from him about quarterbacking. So first of all, you want to talk about analytics?
Starting point is 00:27:04 Yeah. My guy is deep in the weeds on. So I didn't know the lore of this as I said it. So I'd mentioned that J.J. McCarthy over the middle of the field is one of the most efficient passers in football. He knew those stats, but he also knew that JJ McCarthy on the weighty downs, third and eight, third and nine, third and ten was one of the most efficient pastors in the history of football. And apparently I was told in my replies that that was like a basically a Vikings blogger who wrote a piece about about how good he was on wady downs.
Starting point is 00:27:36 And that Kevin O'Connell clearly read that and repeated some of those stats. So like you wouldn't talk about a guy who's ahead of the curve. How many coaches are reading their own teams and likes bloggers, right? Like that's that's different. Okay. That's different. And by the way, I think Cam Ward beat Richard McCarthy's records on third and long. But we won't get into that just yet.
Starting point is 00:27:56 But what I love about Kevin O'Connell is, and I'd heard him talk about this before, is that he doesn't, I think he views quarterback development very personally. If I don't help Sam Darnold, that's on me. And I think a lot of coaches, I'd say 25 coaches of the 32, say, eh, we got this guy, he's in his fourth year. I'm not really going to, we're going to mail it in. Like, truly, we're going to mail it. We're not going to give him any reps. I can try to develop him.
Starting point is 00:28:24 and Kevin O'Connell sees it as his mission to take a Sam Donald, even though you're getting, James McCarthy could have started last year, but he wanted to develop Sam Donald. And the other thing I think is important is he thinks, and I think he lives it, don't overreact at any point. I think we do this all the time. Don't overreact to any point to the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:28:46 Don't overreact overreact over OTAs. Don't take stock after training camp. It's all a journey. And the only thing, he said the only thing you need to be thinking about, is what is this player's ceiling and what is the goal what is the path towards that ceiling everything else is a distraction almost right it's like the old nix sabin results or a distraction thing and what's what's funny is i was just talking about this with um with cam ward because i'm thinking about someone like anthony richardson where we know what a ceiling is he's one of the most athletic quarterbacks of all time
Starting point is 00:29:17 anthony richardt and you had to give him a runway of two or three years to reach that ceiling he gets hurt after a month of his rookie season everybody's trying to save their job in Indianapolis and all of a sudden he gets Spencer for Joe Flacco who by the way was did not steady the ship like I think that people thought that Joe Flacco oh yeah no get there and won't make mistakes no no he was bad
Starting point is 00:29:36 they were bad and yet Richardson is going to get failed by the entire Colts thing because they didn't they drafted a guy who was a project and didn't give the project time to develop into anything and I said this on my show a couple weeks ago have you guys ever heard the Paul D. Podesta
Starting point is 00:29:54 Analytics roller coaster analogy that he gave at a conference years ago? It's one of the best things I've ever heard. So they said, if you're Paul Deepeda, ask Paul Deepedesta, what do you want to ownership? He says, I don't know what I want an ownership, but I know what I don't want an ownership. It happens all the time in analytics,
Starting point is 00:30:08 which is acting like my child at the amusement park where they say, I want to get on the roller coaster. I want to get on the roller coaster, and then it starts to get really scary. And as soon as it gets scary, my daughter goes, I went off the roller coaster. Get me off this roller coaster. Stop the ride.
Starting point is 00:30:25 And with analytics, I think a lot of times, to go back to what DiPedesta was saying, a lot of times ownership is like, of course you want analytics. Of course you want analytics. Then we go, oh, by the way, we're going to trade the star player.
Starting point is 00:30:37 Oh, by the way, we're not going to have a point guard to start the year. Oh, by the way, you know, like all of these things that you have to do in order to get those results. The ownership goes,
Starting point is 00:30:45 well, we can't do that. We can't, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, we can't do that. And I kind of think the same thing is true of quarterback play. If you're drafting Anthony Richardson, what do you think is going to happen? The floor is very low.
Starting point is 00:30:58 And I think that a lot of times, like, did you expect him to be ready in September of his rookie year? Well, he would have gone first overall if that was the case. And so I think that when I look at someone like Kevin O'Connell, I look at a guy who's what the NFL needs for their quarterback development problem. He sees it personally. He wants to help these guys. he understands the timelines.
Starting point is 00:31:23 He understands what JJ McCarthy is going to need. And frankly, you know, unless you're a Chiefs fan or five other teams maybe, I'd want Kevin O'Connell coaching my team if I was a fan. Simon, I know you want to jump in. Let me follow up real quickly. Because that quarterback thing is interesting. And Simon, you loved Anthony New Richardson coming out of college.
Starting point is 00:31:47 Same. And to me, it makes me wonder, why don't people think differently about drafting quarterbacks? If nobody believe Shador Sanders would be a top flight prospect in a year where there were other quarterbacks who were coming out who were better,
Starting point is 00:32:10 why all of a sudden reach to draft him in the top ten? Do people really believe Cam Ward is as good a prospect as Caleb Williams, as Jaden Daniels. I do. I do, by the way. We can get to that. Okay, great. That's great.
Starting point is 00:32:27 But if not, it seems like if you were, obviously the premium is on a quarterback because it's the most important position. But that leads to a rational decision making and that leads to reaching. And people are so afraid of what the optics are going to be, they can't make the actual in a vacuum analytics. decision. That's fair. I'm the wrong guy, though, because I don't believe in the reaching for a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:32:57 It's such a unique position in this league that it's like, like, you're the Browns. If you think Sanders is a reach, it's why your organization is a bunch of losers and you've never had a good quarterback. It's like you're not in that position to say, well, that's a reach for an organization. It's, it's no, you see, right, there's especially old school scouts. They're looking for guys to have, you know, they do one or two things really well, like all pro level, and they can figure out the rest, right, match it together. Anthony Richardson is a great example of that, of just pure raw talent, played what,
Starting point is 00:33:29 13 games, 12 games in college, came out of 21, crazy young. You knew there was going to be a ton of bumps on the road. Their organization has been terrible at handling that, but also you hear rumors about him, is he in there all day, working all day, right? Does he come in early, leave late? Some things you hear, he's not that type of guy, which again, if you're not that guy in NFL, you're probably not going to last. Like, you just have to work so hard at the quarterback position. On the flip side, a guy like Jane Daniels who played for, what, five, six years in college came out incredibly polished, incredibly mature.
Starting point is 00:34:03 He didn't have those speed bumps, right? He came out. And I feel like after one or two games, he adjusted to the NFL. So I'm with you on that chat where it's like, it is tough with some of these teams because they're trying to over-evaluate these positions. But for my mindset, it's just like, you got to keep shooting. Like, Cam Ward, I love this kid's skill set. He's a bunch of little things he does, or I'm like, oh, this kid to easily be a stud in two or three years.
Starting point is 00:34:23 Or we can have this weird run we've been on, Chad, where C.J. Strout came out right away, legit playoff quarterback, changed this whole team's organization. The following year, Jane Daniels. So we've been on this run now of these quarterbacks coming out, way more mature that people give them credit for, just into the NFL fashion that people give them credit for. And again, that comes down to the analytics of these teams know exactly the best thing to do with these quarterbacks. The other teams don't, right? The other teams need a year to adjust.
Starting point is 00:34:49 So that's why I'm interested to see Jane Daniels's upcoming season. We saw CJ teams adjusted to him last year, even though they had a ton of injuries. What are the adjustments to Jane Daniels? Because right now, even breaking down his film chat, I don't see it. Like this kid, he's got it all. Like, if he can keep that mentality, he's going to be a problem next year. So I'm here, Kevin's view on it because he's in the same boat as me. Like he liked Anthony Richardson, but we both agree.
Starting point is 00:35:11 Like that ownership, the coaching staff, it feels like they've all failed him at this point. Well, with Richardson in particular, what if you taught him to be more of a professional instead of just giving up on him and I thought the marketing of the benching was really stupid you know it was like hey Shane Steichen is he going to be your quarterback in the future and Steichen was like oh well you know
Starting point is 00:35:31 I guess we'd love that yeah sure anything's possible you know like it was like when they benched this year it was like he was never coming back and you think about Bryce Young and obviously the Andy Dalton car accident played into this but like they still believed in Bryce Young and they still developed him
Starting point is 00:35:46 and they weren't going to give up on him. And Bryce Young, arguably was worse than Anthony Richardson ever was. It was just the Anthony Richardson tapped on his helmet to give up on a play or give up on a drive, which again, you teach him and you move on. There's not a lot of guys who were finished products.
Starting point is 00:36:00 You mentioned Jaden Daniels. He played forever in college. I call those guys Dr. Quarterbacks because Bo Nix and Michael Pennix and Jaden Daniels played 100 years and through, I think, a thousand, all of them threw a thousand more passes than JJ McCarthy. Like, it's it.
Starting point is 00:36:14 They were playing a different sport. They had a different developmental thing. with Ward I can tell you why I think he's like a franchise guy I could tell you a million things my two concerns
Starting point is 00:36:28 so he tries to make things happen a la Josh Allen which is a good thing what's the old thing you want to say you want to rein him in instead of kicking him on the butt basically and he will go for it and my concern is
Starting point is 00:36:43 if there's really bad turnover luck early or he's so comfortable in the pocket. He operates so, not casually, but so slowly he'll hang in there, which is a strength in college. You do it against Miles Garrett. It's a strip sack, right?
Starting point is 00:36:59 It's a scoop and score. So those are my two concerns. My concern is one bad month, and all of a sudden, ah, we're going to go see what we'll have us. You know, it's that kind of thing. I don't think that's going to happen. I'm just saying that what the organization needs to say
Starting point is 00:37:14 in the front end, they will. I think the Titans are really smart. Whoever drafts Cam Ward, and I'm going to assume it's going to be the Titans, barring a trade, needs to say, there's going to be plays. And there are only five of them at Miami, where he throws across his body because he's trying to win the game. And it is a really, really ugly series. And we got to say, you know what? That's just who he is.
Starting point is 00:37:39 The same thing the bill said about Josh Allen. That's who he is. We're going to try to tweak a little bit, but we're going to let him go. he fumbled on one play because he was trying to do too much. Okay, fine. He's going to get to January as our starter. And guess what? He's going to get to next January as our starter.
Starting point is 00:37:55 You almost, and I've thought this before, Pat Riley, I guess, before the heat, big three thing, came to Eric's bolstra and said, there is nothing you can do to get fired. There is nothing you can do. And there's going to be so much noise on, you know, hey, LeBron, you know, is leaking that he wants to bring in his own people. LeBron wasn't listening to the timeout. Doesn't matter. You're the coach. And with someone like Ward, where there's going to be bumps
Starting point is 00:38:24 on the road because of how aggressive he plays, the best thing to do is say, Cam, there is not a thing in the world that will get you bench. And it's that exact same thing they should have said to Anthony Richardson. And I love that too, where, like Chad's saying, it is random, right? No one really knows in the draft who's
Starting point is 00:38:40 going to be the guy when they're drafting quarterbacks. My favorite thing will always be, you don't know in many camps, but you know, come July, August, when everyone's in camp together, you can see, like, my favorites forever always be the Alex Smith story. Like, they're in Kansas City and they're, they're just getting there in August. Everyone's getting ready for the upcoming season. And even Alex Smith turned to his coach and was like, holy shit, this Patrick Mahomes kid
Starting point is 00:39:01 is the real deal. Like, there's certain guys coming to the league immediately. They're just so talented. It jumps off the board. And, you know, we've had a run here of these quarterbacks of, you know, just absolute game changes. Like, it's, it's been shocking how much good quarterback play we've had come into this league lately and you just mentioned a name that me and Chad love right we love the panthers and we love
Starting point is 00:39:20 talking about what they're going to do down there and you know the future of bryce young and someone that you know my whole knock on him was i just didn't see the ceiling like when anthony richison i saw the the ceiling of a josh allen type big body incredible arm freak athlete bryce young i just never saw what the ceiling was i know people were like well he could be a drew drew breeze type there's only one drew breeze in my lifetime like there's never been another type like that That's small with an incredible arm, deadly accuracy. But you saw flashes of that last year at the end of the season. I saw what people said when they talked about him.
Starting point is 00:39:53 I mean, you interviewed Dave Canales. What's his view coming on the season? What's the view right now of him? You know, this is, in my mind, a make or break season for him. Year three, if they don't do well, how do they not take a quarterback at this point? So I'd love to hear your view after talking their head coach. They believe in Bryce, obviously, going into this year. I think part of it, I think Bryce works really hard and is coachable.
Starting point is 00:40:14 And I think those are the two things. Even going into the season, I know some guys down there in Carolina, and they were saying, listen, it's not, I forget what the phrasing of someone down there in Carolina told me, but it's not about him becoming the next Drew Breeze. It's about him becoming the next Baker Mayfield.
Starting point is 00:40:29 You know, like the 13th, 12th best quarterback. I think that Alex Smith had a start to his career in San Francisco that was abysmal. And I've talked to Smith about this. It took him three years to get over his first start because of just how bad it was. I think that, I think if you are that bad when you come in, it probably means you're not going to be Mahomes. It probably means you're not going to be C.J. Stroud.
Starting point is 00:40:51 You can still be the 12th best quarterback in the NFL. You can still be Baker Mayfield. You can still be that level. I think that that's the most important thing for Carolina now. It was raising the floor and giving him those options. And when I talked to Canales, I said, what's the key to that thing? And he said, the key is meeting them in the middle and saying, if you work hard, I will reward you with routes that you like, concepts you like.
Starting point is 00:41:15 If you come to me and say, I can throw this route reliably over the middle, for instance, I will build a playbook around that so long as you give me proof of concept that you're going to work your butt off, you're going to get there, and you're going to hit that route every single time. That's it. The coaches do their jobs. The quarterback does their jobs. They both have a trust. Trust is the word that he used a million times.
Starting point is 00:41:34 That's what ended up having with Bryce Young. Is they said, can you work to a point where you can do these things. well. And he's, yes, okay, fine. We'll both the playbook around that. All of a sudden, that's how you raise the floor. So to me, again, going back to the Kevin O'Connell thing, that's coaching. Geno Smith, Baker-Mayfield, Bryce Young. Those are the three
Starting point is 00:41:52 quarterbacks that Dave Canales has coached over the past, what, five years. And that's what you've done every single place. It's raise the floor with trust and with schemes and saying, only do what you do well. And I think that's the one thing. I think in the old football guys, there was a lot of, hey, we're going to draft
Starting point is 00:42:08 this quarterback and he's going on our system. And if you can't run our system, he's out of here. And I think that what it is now with the way the college is, it's like we're going to, so Brian Callahan as a Titans coach was on my show. He wasn't about Cam Ward. He's talking about Joe Burrow. Of course, he would never talk about Cam Ward. But he was saying that the one thing he tried to do with Burrow is make year one in Cincinnati
Starting point is 00:42:31 be your three at LSU. Make the concept so familiar that you're not sitting there trying to learn calculus. You're saying, oh, I can do this. And then if the bullets start flying and the speed of the game isn't what he thought or whatever, you can go, okay, you know what we're going to do, Joe? We're going to run the eight concepts that you ran exactly at LSU. And I think you can probably read into the fact that Brian Callahan has been revisiting his Joe Burrow notes. He's been rewatching the zooms he had with Joe Burrow because that was during COVID.
Starting point is 00:43:03 So we had it all recorded. That's all on his computer. So I think you can probably read into that with what they're going to do with the first overall pick. And I think you can probably read into the. the idea that they're going to take a lot of stuff from Cam Ward's offense. So that's a lot of RPO's. I mean, it's a lot of middle of the field stuff. There's probably going to be a lot of that, a lot of tight end usage.
Starting point is 00:43:22 A lot of that is probably going to be in Tennessee year one. And that's what a good coach does. That detail right there about him rewatching the Zooms, thinking about Joe Burrow in his third year at LSU, which could be the equivalent to Cam Ward in his first year at Washington State. Like, that is a great fucking deal, Kat. That is like that detail right there. That's fucking good. Who's to say, Cam Ward is the first overall pick?
Starting point is 00:43:54 I can only present the facts as they were presented to me. That somehow Brian Callahan is sitting around looking at the old zooms of Joe Burrell. So, of course, the number one overall pick will be Abdul-Carter, of course. Still, that is really... I'm joking. It's going to, it's 100% going to be worth. That's, this is football quality right there. Listeners want to make extra money daily from your sports betting?
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Starting point is 00:45:24 Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas, we invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
Starting point is 00:45:50 Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my life.
Starting point is 00:46:09 little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel.
Starting point is 00:46:38 help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself.
Starting point is 00:47:01 I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Genshin win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now,
Starting point is 00:47:23 and I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court-side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:47:49 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:48:12 As we said, the Masters is this week. Starts on Thursday. You've been doing the betcasts with ESPN for golf. How do you think about golf from the, analyzing the sport from a betting point of view? I don't been on football. And the reason I don't is because I bet every single tournament, golf tournament I can. And I know how mad I get at Zander Shoffley when he misses a nine-footer.
Starting point is 00:48:48 It costs me money. Okay, there he goes from T-8 to T-12, right? And I just couldn't imagine that being Bobby Wagner missing a tackle and costing me, you know, an NFC East Futures bet. And then a week later, Bobby Wagner is on my show and I'm just shooting daggers at him and saying, what the hell was that, Bobby? Like, I just know it, right? So there's a separation of church and state for me. It's not a moral separation.
Starting point is 00:49:14 It is a emotional personal separation. Ethical, journalistic. I just want to come to it as, um, ethics is the wrong word. It's more journalistic. I want to come to everything completely neutral. What's funny now, and I'm thinking I can name any names, but you can see who has what bets based on people's Twitter feeds during a game now where it's like these roughs are out of control and it's like okay buddy I know you had Florida relax okay that's so funny and and for me
Starting point is 00:49:44 I never want to be the guy who's who's analyzing a sport I'm paid to cover like that in any way other than than fairness and anything other than like I say if I had CJ Stroud to win an MVP this year as a futures bet Simon I would have interrupted you and said well no no you're wrong about C. The thing about C.J. Starr, like, I would have coming through that way. Now I'm coming through it. Only the prism of is C.J. Strat is I'm going to make a leap that he didn't make last year? Like, that's the way I want to do it. So for me, I love the analytics of golf. Like, that's the one thing. I saw Cousin style at the airport at the Super Bowl last year. And we're talking about gambling. I said, I love gambling on golf. And he said, what, I guess he's less into it. And he said, sell me on this for a second. And I said, well, imagine Patrick Mahomes played on a. different field every single week. And that some weeks it was 100 yards, some weeks it was 70 yards, but it was more width. And you had to figure out every single week whether or not this is going to help or hurt Mahomes' game.
Starting point is 00:50:43 And that you would look at Mahomes' last seven games and look at his ball flight and figure that out. And like, imagine just the different rabbit holes you'd go down. Because this is, golf is a sense of place more than anything. And you get to understand this stuff. And Augusta is the heightened version of all of this because it's the same stuff every year with a few changes. I guess the hurricane changed some of the tree layouts or whatever.
Starting point is 00:51:05 But it's ball strikers. And if you guys gamble on golf, you know, take ball strikers and figure the rest out later, that's a pretty reliable way to get a bunch of top tens and top 20s to hit. It's course history that matters a lot. And then there's all these things that are unique to Augusta. I saw Rick Gaiman had an awesome nugget on his podcast yesterday, I think, where he said that in his research, the guys who do the best at putting on Augusta, it's not until your sixth year, statistically, that you tend to figure it out.
Starting point is 00:51:33 You're six through ten playing Augusta are the years you peak as a putter, because it takes you that long to figure out the greens at Augusta. And so I don't think there's many places like this. I think that maybe I'm biased because it's one of the only sports that I really do bet on, but I think betting the masters is the best betting experience you can have. Maybe the NCAA tournament's more fun or more endorphins or whatever, or more stimulation. But like, this is unbelievable.
Starting point is 00:52:01 And what's funny about it for me, I was mentioned the ball strikers. What's always frustrating about the masters because I bet on ball strikers every single week and just go, hey, who's Tita Green, who's a pro-shot guy, what's been on that guy? It's always one of my guys who wins this, always.
Starting point is 00:52:16 But it may not be the guy I went all in on this week. Like, I owe the year Hideki won. I go all in on Hadeki like every other tournament. I happen to not go in on Hedekki that week. And I think I probably broke even. even that week or whatever. But it's like,
Starting point is 00:52:29 for real golf gamblers, this is, this is just heaven. And I just love sorting through all the info. So who are your, we're gonna, I want to go through. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:40 Your high end, your mid-tears. But before we get to start with your high end, like top of the leaderboard, top of the odds. Yeah. So I don't know what to do with the live guys, to be completely honest with you.
Starting point is 00:52:52 People keep telling me, there are, Lord help us. There are people saying, Sergio Garcia is live here. And I don't know what the hell. I don't know what are we doing? What are we doing on a live?
Starting point is 00:53:01 I don't know. Rom, people are talking about Cam Smith as someone. But for me, the two guys at the top of my card are Roy McElroy, obviously, plus 600 to win, minus 140 to be a top 10. I'll figure that out. And then Justin Thomas. He's 22 to 1 to win. For me, the Justin Thomas thing is simple.
Starting point is 00:53:22 Top 15 and T to Green. So T to Green, strokes gained, which is basically just how well you hit the ball in so you get to the green. That last 36 rounds, he's in the top 15. Bertie or better percentage, he's number one. Par five. So if you guys know anybody got to par five, the whole rule, the rule of thumb is you just let the par fours happen, let the par threes happen.
Starting point is 00:53:44 You get really aggressive on par five's, really aggressive. Well, guess what? Justin Thomas is number one over the past 36 rounds in par five strokes gained. number eight in eagles around the green 12th and a three-putt avoidance which is important this this week he's in the top 10 so for me i'm betting rory because i think he's an amazing ball striker and i just think frankly i know this is not great gambling terminology i think he's due um i think he's better a couple of the golf analysts were saying he's getting better at course management he's hitting softer shots he's he's always gone full send and he's always hit it as hard as he could like like when
Starting point is 00:54:21 wore out on it. Like I do this every year. I'm like, you know what? This is the year. I'm just going to start grooving nine irons. I'm going to club up and just manage the course. And then I get out there and I'm like, what if I hit my driver 270? What?
Starting point is 00:54:33 I'm just going to, that's all I care about. And then you end up shooting 89 instead of the 80 because of it. Right. And Rory, it sounds like the past couple weeks, couple months has gotten a little better actually following that advice and having the softer shots. But to me, it's, it's, uh, it's Thomas and it's Rory. At this point, guys, I don't have really any top live guys on my card. I'm kind of going to miss it with Rahman Kepka because I've got the data.
Starting point is 00:55:02 I've got the strokes gain data. And there's evidence that suggests I'm wrong here. I just think playing on live is just a different deal. And I don't know. And we've seen obviously Bryson win last year. It's just hard for me to quantify that and say, I'm going to go all in, all on these guys in the way that is necessary to win at the Masters. And I wonder, like, with someone like Rory, you're not worried that he's broken
Starting point is 00:55:26 mentally just because it's been what? I mean, it's something that loved Rory because, you know, he's from Northern Ireland. You know, I know he's not the Biggs fan being British, but that's why I heard about him because I am a fan of being British of British golfers. And, you know, the fact that I'm trying to think is it, is it 2013, 24th, or 2015? It was the last time he won a major. We've seen him evolve. His whole life has changed so much since then. You're right. Like, feels like he's been playing his best golf. Do you have confidence in him, though, on that Sunday, if he has that lead,
Starting point is 00:55:57 it's got to be honest. After Pinehurst, that's another question. But to me, the biggest problem with the master is Simon was always Thursday. It was always, oh, he shot at 79. What the hell just happened? And then he eeks his way back in. I think he gets too juiced up for this.
Starting point is 00:56:12 That's why I was so encouraged to hear the reports of him managing the course well, whatever like you know Bill Walsh had a quote I go back to all the time which is there's no such thing as clutch there's just executing normally when everybody starts to lose their head right and there's another quote from Jimmy Johnson in Seth Wickersham's Belichick book about 24 out of the 30 teams are going to get out of your way in any given season just don't be one of those teams the problem that the master's guys is Rory loses his head and is one of the teams that gets out of the way
Starting point is 00:56:44 and they Kepka can look at Rory and go don't have for about this guy he's all juiced up you know, like that kind of thing. At some point, he's going to learn, and he's adjusted so many things, Simon, you know this and following him. He's played before. He's skipped before. He's given more rest. He's given more warm-up rounds.
Starting point is 00:57:01 He's tried so many different things. At some point, you just have to believe that he's a good enough player to break through at some point. You just have to believe it. And if you look at some of the form stuff, Rick Gaiman has some stuff. Data golf has some stuff. He's one of the hottest players in the world relative to his baseline, which is important. we saw we saw even though it was j jay spawn who by the way is on some of my cards this week um we saw him take care of business in the playoff at the players um i just feel like at some point
Starting point is 00:57:31 it's going to be his week i'm going to regret having not i've how many times are like bay hill have you not bet rory and he goes what the hell is this he's like juiced up and he's high-fiving everybody and you're like all right hope i hope hendricks denson hangs on meanwhile you lose all your money, right? It feels to me like a Rory week where you're, I always, with football teams in particular, I always say like, what's the reverse engineer? What in 10 years am I going to go, of course this team won the Super Bowl? Look at the roster. Look at the defensive tackles. Look at this guy on this contract. Like the Eagles this year. You're looking at the roster and you're going, in 2035, we're going to look back and be like, of course the team won the super. What the hell are we
Starting point is 00:58:10 thinking? The Rams are going to beat them or the commanders are going to beat them. With golf, I do the same, and I'm thinking, at some point, I'm going to look back in the 2025 Masters, and I think I'm going to be surprised Rory didn't win. I always want to bet those guys. You know, it's so funny, Simon, you mentioned that. So when I was in Palm Beach this weekend, I'm working on a new book, and part of the book is about the guy who invented the point spread. And his grandson lives in Palm Beach, and his grandson was a professional golfer, and is now a professional golf instructor. And so he was basically groomed to be a professional better.
Starting point is 00:58:50 Ultimately, he did not become a professional better. But a lot of the lessons, his grandfather, who, you know, was a master's students in math at the University of Chicago. And Kevin, he's basically the original quant. Like, he was making models in the 1930s using legal pads to do all the chicken scratch math. before there were algorithms he could use on a computer. But all he did, the guy I was with in Palm Beach this weekend, was talk about the mental elements of golf. You know, he loves golf, obviously, so much.
Starting point is 00:59:28 And the way he was talking about how everything is that, you know, three square inches of real estate in your head talking about the difference between his level of success and the level of success of people who are at the level that Rory is at. I feel like Rory can handle it. I think actually the breakdown probably helped get him into the right frame to overcome that the next time it happens. I completely agree with you.
Starting point is 01:00:03 I think that resilience can be learned. I think that, I mean, the mental part of it is what it is. I view so many of these guys, and I said this a million times before, but I view it like a FC quarterbacks where I actually said it to Brandon B in the other day, and they were reverse. But if you look at Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, they should win the Super Bowl every year. Every year.
Starting point is 01:00:32 They should win the Super Bowl every year. And they don't because of a little tiny thing, hey, this wide receiver two got hurt, this left tackle got hurt, the defense was good enough, whatever. there are 15 guys who strike the ball well enough to win every single week on tour. John Rom should win every single major. And not to be like the Janus LeBron thing. John Rom would win 50 majors if he was born in 1950, right? That's just kind of the way it goes.
Starting point is 01:00:58 And so for me, the mental part of it is the entire thing. And I think Rory, Simon, might be getting better at that. I know those are famous last words. we probably, if you listen back to whatever your guest was on April 8th last year, was probably saying the same thing. But like at some point, he's too good not to break through. Do you have any mid-tier long shots that you're looking at? Well, so Shane Lowry, staying on the, staying on the Rory thing, just always going to ball strike
Starting point is 01:01:30 in the way that is just incredibly impressive. And let's see, seventh and T to green, eighth and three-putt avoidance, top 30 in part. par five's top 10 and eagles 22nd around the green so lowry's always going to be my card and then if i had to give a longer shot in this mid tier i'm going to go step straca um who i actually heard pat mayo just shouted him out and is on the straca train uh top five and t to green uh birdie or better top three par five top two like straca is the kind of guy that is if i had to guess he might be built for this. He might be built for this. And obviously, I don't think he has a ton. He was 16th the Masters last year looking at it now. Like, I would not be surprised for the sub-straika top five,
Starting point is 01:02:23 and I'm going to bet that. Jane Lowry, 35 to 1, Straca, 60 to 1. Yeah. Last question for you. If you had to give us, I know you don't bet on football, if you had to give us a Masters champion, Super Bowl champion, Parlay. Give it to us. All right. Geez. I'm pretty sure I'm pretty sure Justin Thomas is going to win.
Starting point is 01:02:54 I know we spent the time on Rory, but I'm pretty sure Justin Thomas is going to win, okay? That's my number one. Pretty sure. I'm pretty sure. You can take that to the bank. I'm going to go Thomas and the Ravens. Every year.
Starting point is 01:03:07 We got a believer, Chad. Ravens believer. I love it. I know, right? They've got so much better. As the season went along last year, I know what happened in the playoffs, but like they had a new D.C. I think I believe in Lamar in a way that maybe a lot of people don't. I'm going J.T. and the Baltimore Ravens.
Starting point is 01:03:27 Every year the Ravens are an auto future bet. Simon, I'm pretty sure the first time Kevin said Justin Thomas at 22 to 1, I saw you put your head down. And I feel like you were betting Justin Thomas. You know me well, Jeff. You know me well. I do want to say to our listeners, if you're like not feeling it right, the Northeast, it's cold right now. It's a little shitty out, Chad. I know you're going through the same thing. Yeah. If you're not in the master's mode, throw on Tiger 2019 on YouTube. It's like a 40-minute
Starting point is 01:03:57 cut up, somewhere an hour long. It will literally put you right back into the master's move. The guy watched it two days ago. I'm going to literally watch it again as we get off this call because it is, it's the best. We just talk about the mental side of the game. I miss the Tiger Red so much, but it just puts you in the right headset of the masters, the elegance, the weather. I think this weekend's can be perfect in the 70s, maybe a little rain on Friday, but it's the best.
Starting point is 01:04:22 The Masters really is the best golf tournament. Have you been, Chad? I've never been. And it's funny, the wedding I was at this weekend, a lot of people were going from Miami. They were sticking around and then just going to Augusta. A little life. I know.
Starting point is 01:04:38 It's one of the two events I've never been to that I'm dying. to go to Masters in Wimbledon, and it just kills me that I've never been. I'll tell a three second story. I don't care about Wimbledon. I care about the Masters deeply. And this time of year, it's hard for me to go. But when I was at the Ringer, my last contract at the Ringer, I had said, hey, can I do the golf majors?
Starting point is 01:04:58 And they said, sure, that sounds good. And so I was going to apply to a master's thing. And then my mom was getting honored by our college that Friday. And I couldn't miss the mom thing. And my mom doesn't understand golf at all. And so I didn't apply. And I was explaining to my mom. I was like, hey, I'm going to go to your event.
Starting point is 01:05:14 And I'm not going to go to math. She says, why don't you just call the Masters? She's a sports fan, but she didn't get the Master. She goes, just call the Masters and tell them you can be there Sunday. And I go, that sounds like a lifetime ban, mom. That sounds like I don't think you know who we're dealing with exactly. Hey, guys, I sorry, I have a thing. Can I just leave my ticket like Sunday morning?
Starting point is 01:05:34 I'll be there. I'll be there. I'll see you guys. And I was like, I'm going to go ahead and not call the Masters and tell them I'll be there Sunday, Mom. Moms are the best. You know, it's like, I just love. Just a lot of optimism. I was talking to my mom last night about,
Starting point is 01:05:52 I was just catching up with it. I hadn't spoken to her in the week. And I just got, I just landed back in Connecticut. And she's like, oh, how did it? How was the wedding? How was your, you know, your day with your guy and all that kind of stuff? I'm like, it's great. Then she says to me, hey, listen, in my book club,
Starting point is 01:06:08 there's a woman, her brother-in-law, he worked at ESPN for a long time. You think you know him? I'm like, what's his name? She goes, I'm not quite sure of his name. It sounds like Kimmel, but it's not. I'm like, well, is it Jimmy Kimmel? She goes, no, it's not Jimmy Kimmel.
Starting point is 01:06:25 But then she's explaining it to me. And I'm like, well, how old is the guy? She goes, he's about my age, so he's, you know, 77. I'm like, Mom, I'm not going to know the guy. Like, he's, I'm old, and he's 25 years older than me. And I don't even know when he was there. what he did, where he worked, and you don't know his name. But then she keeps trying to explain it and finally I said to her,
Starting point is 01:06:46 Ma, I don't know why we're still talking about this. I'm not going to know the guy. And she goes, I get it. Okay. I'm sorry, honey. Unfortunately, that is right when my 18-year-old walked into the room and then he laughed and walked out. And when I walked into the living room where he was sitting with my wife,
Starting point is 01:07:05 they were both talking about how much I couldn't stand talking to my mom. and it's like the exact opposite behavior of what I'm trying to model for my kids. So when we are old, our kids don't roll their eyes every time we call them and not want to talk to us. And all I did was walk into it because my mom trying to be lovely and trying to be kind and just trying to say, oh my God, isn't it cool? You worked at ESPN and this guy worked at ESPN and you might know him and this woman's in my book club. Instead, I acted like a dick and now I feel bad. Wow. Now you have to have lunch with this guy, this 77 year old.
Starting point is 01:07:38 I got to find it. It's my way to work to find this guy. Kevin Clark, this is football. That detail about Brian Callan and Joe Burrow, that's why people should listen to This is Football, which is about a good football podcast as there is. Good luck on first take this week. Good luck with the Betcast.
Starting point is 01:07:56 Good luck with everything at ESPN. You're awesome. You're revolutionary. You're a media archetype. Thanks for coming on the show. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. A new Bet365 customers. $150 and bonus bets when you bet $5.
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Starting point is 01:09:14 Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast.
Starting point is 01:09:23 Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know. Tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 01:09:40 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel. and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
Starting point is 01:10:03 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host Kia games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor?
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