The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

Episode Date: January 29, 2022

The dizzying highs and terrifying lows of another NFL season are drawing to a close, and Chad Millman of the Action Network once again welcomes pro bettor Simon Hunter to discuss all things betting across two premiere NFL playoff matchups this weekend as they narrow down their favorite bets.Together they finish their review of the Cincinnati Bengals visiting Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, and ultimately disagree on the best way to approach gambling on the game. Later they wrap up their San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams debate, agreeing on a side to bet in the late game. With the Super Bowl looming, now is the best time to buckle down, focus up and get your most informed bets of the season in before the yawning chasm of the NFL offseason swallows the sports world whole. So let's go out with a bang, and good luck this weekend! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Tested positive for COVID-19, you have options.

The active sick study is researching existing medications to learn if they may also help people with COVID feel better faster. The best part, you can participate from the comfort of your own home. We'll send medications to you and you'll take all. online surveys from your couch. Learn how you can quarantine and take part in much-needed COVID research all at the same time. Visit research from home.org.

That's research from home.org. The big game is finally here as we hit Super Sunday with the last game of the football season and Bet Online has you covered with more odds, lines, and props than ever before. Betonline.net remains the best spot for all your sports scores, podcasts and news this season. And it's not just football. Bet Online has up-to-the-minute info on pro and college hoops, NHL, boxing, UFC, along with live real-time updates of current games. Don't wait to take advantage of all the new amazing offers available for the 2022 season.

Bet Online, where the game starts. This episode is brought to you by DirectTV Stream. Introducing Direct TV Stream, the best of live TV and on-demand, which means you can watch your favorite sports, movies, and shows all in one place. So whether you want to catch the game live or watch the latest blockbook Buster, they've got you covered. And there's no annual contract. DirectTV stream.

Get your TV together at directtv.com. Requires high-speed internet and compatible device. Content varies by package and location, restriction supply. The Favorites podcast is presented by Fandual Sportsbook. There's no better place to bet the action than on Fandual Sportsbook during the football season. They're America's number one sportsbook with an easy-to-use app that's safe and secure. And when I win, I get paid out in as little as two. hours. And this season, Fandual Sportsbook is making betting easy for everyone with great

promos like risk-free bets, enhanced odds markets, same game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download the Fandual Sportsbook app to get started and sign up with promo code favorites so they know I sent you. You must be 21 or older and president, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. Gambling problem, call 1-800 next step or text, next step to 533442 in Arizona, 1-88-7-9-77, or visit c-cpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia. 1-800-270-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan.

called the Tennessee Red Line at 1-800-889-9-9 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It's Thursday. Numbers have been moving a little bit for the conference championship games in the AFC and the NFC between the Bengals and the Chiefs and the Rams and the Nel. Niners, certainly if numbers haven't been moving, opinions have been solidifying. We're going to break it all down.

Me and my BFF, my compadre, my companion, Mr. Professional Better, Simon Hunter. Yeah, it's always bittersweet, buddy. It's like, it's starting to set in now. We only got three games left. I love it. This is the best football, but it's, I'm going to miss it all. The other day, I was, I don't know, probably slicing or smashing an avocado. or, you know, getting some macadamia nuts in a bowl or whatever it is,

I thought to myself was a little bit winsome because I thought, there's not another Monday night football game until September. It's amazing how long we go without football. It is, but it's also amazing how long the season is. Like, I was looking at our shows. We started doing, like, I think in July, we started doing, like, divisions. And it's just crazy to think it's about to be February. It's crazy how football now, it's 12 months out of the year.

They're like, again, we joke, we're going to the offseason. Chad knows there really is no offseason for football. I was joking with Matt Mitchell. I have three phones. Who has three phones? Just football better is because just I got a phone for my life. I got a phone for other professionals. I have a phone now for runners.

It's like the way it is now, it's just crazy how much goes on in the off season. Like we talked last week about the draft. That's probably one of the bigger things going on with. pros are getting ready for the draft. So it's just never ending, buddy, but I'm going to miss the games for sure. Well, let's get to it, man. Normally we do sharp calls where we get some feedback from the other professional letters who have listened to the show on Tuesday and have called you and said they hate

what we're saying. They love what we're saying. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody saying, baby, what you do with? There's only two games. So instead of sort of going directly into sharp calls, let's just to see. assume everything is a sharp call. The first game, the Bengals and the Chiefs, this game is fascinating right now because it's sitting on seven. I bet the Bengals at seven and a half. There was one book as of this morning that still had seven and a half. Legal book, not Fandul, so I won't name it specifically.

I'm like, I've got to take the Bengals at this point. I'm even inclined to take the Bengals at seven. The more I'm thinking about it, the more it's shaping up like right spot, right matchup, right offense against the right defense to be able to keep this game close. Well, I saw that your old said employee, John, who works for said book you just talked about, put out there that over 60% of the money and 65% of the bets right now at that book is on the Bengals. So it could be, once again, we talked about the seven and a half. Maybe it's just because of that, but they haven't moved.

They're getting all that money, Chad, and they haven't moved. So talk to a bunch of pros. Of course, they love the dogs this weekend. Like I knew I knew coming into it that I was going to be on island again. We talked last week the pros loved the bills. They loved them. They really, really did. And I took big bets.

I sent out big bets for the bills. I sent out really big bets for the bucks too. They had a tough weekend last week, a lot of these pros. So I'm not as scary as I usually am when I'm talking to a really legit pros and they're like on the other side of me. I've talked to a couple that I like the chiefs as well. Like they kind of view it from the same point as me. It's like we have a once in a generation talent.

homes and he just does not let us down like in these positions at home doesn't let us down and i i really do believe again i don't want to shit on the bangles because it's been an unreal year like this is an incredible run but what are we doing here it's like they beat their car on short rest at home and their car could have tied the game slash one at the very end of that game they just be tennessee on the road against tennessee team that would they put up 19 points to be tennessee like a lot like again I keep talking about how things break your way. It's been great for the Bengals, and that's why I don't want to shit on them too hard

because I could see a way they could win this game. Again, they've already beaten this Chief's team, but me and Chad joked about during the season. That was at home, and they were getting every little call they needed. Like, oh, 30 and 15 PI on the Chiefs. Like, it just kept working out for them where the Chiefs just did nothing that second half. Again, they put up three points total in the second half against this Bengals defense. So a lot of pros I've talked to,

they think that the Bengals defense is better than people give them credit for. And that's all fine and good. But I told you last week, you really pissed me off when people talked about these defenses when it's like, it's my homes. It's not your defense that's going to win you these matchups against my homes. It's your offense. You need to outscore him and then somehow get a turnover against him.

So nothing's changed, buddy. Like, if you're giving me seven, I'm still going to take it. I get why you're taking the seven and a half. I know a bunch of other pros we've taken the seven and a half. But I am starting to feel more and more comfortable taking this chief's team knowing that so much bangle money is coming in. Like people are betting them. That's going to become a public dog.

It's like last week with the bills. If you were getting Mahomes, not with the public at home, you're probably getting good value on that line. Let me play massive devil's advocate. Because a lot of what you were talking about is Bengals winning. I don't need the Bengals to win. Seven and a half or seven just feels like a huge number, even with Patrick Mahomes.

because it's not like the chiefs have been blowing people out this year. And we know that their record when they've been big favorites over the past couple years has not been very good. And what we love about Mahomes, what scares us about Mahomes is when he's a short favorite betting against him like we did with the bills. But a big favorite in a game with a quarterback across the line who is pretty unfazed, who's got explosive playmakers going against a defense that we talk about as it's improved, talking about the chiefs, but they're not good.

They're not. Because Josh Allen just carved them up. Guy, they haven't been good all year. Whenever they've played a good team, if you look at Justin Herbert carving them up, look at Teddy fucking Bridgewater carving them up in that Broncos game. It hasn't been one of those things where. they're able to blow teams out. Do you remember the name of the backup for the Jets?

Yeah, he was that guy. He had like, yeah, that guy. Like the guy who everyone loved, he was like the current Warner for a week. I mean, if you're going to shit on the Chiefs defense,

like the Bengals over here ain't really, they didn't really set the world on fire in the season. Yeah, but that to me says, okay, then the play doesn't necessarily mean it's not a side play. It's probably an over.

I just think, I'm looking at this and thinking more and more, we're just going to be on opposite sides of this, I guess. Yeah, that's great, great for me. I don't know that it is. Although I do think it's very possible I took the Bengals plus seven in Scute Frulet. And I'm talking about, did I take the Chiefs? Yeah.

Damn it. It's all good. I know you get out there, you listen to your other shows, you hear other opinions. And it was just like last week, I had to beg you to take the 49ers on Saturday. That was different. I'm going to have to beg you again to take this number of chief. That was entirely different. that was entirely different because I didn't have a strong opinion on that one,

where I am developing an opinion. And by the way, it's only on the hook. At seven, I have less of an opinion. At seven and a half, I feel like that's just sort of the advantage. No, that's fair. Again, it's a, it's a key number, but I just think it's a sharp, like not a sharp trap, but it's just a trap. Like they're going to, the public loves Joe Burrow.

You're going to see Joe cool tweets all week how this guy's dominated teams above 500. since his college career and this is the run of Joe Burrow making it to the Super Bowl. I just don't want to shit on too much because I want this to happen. Like none of us want another Brady dynasty. Like in Mahomes, I love the Mahom's story, but yes, the better story is Joe Burrow moving on. I just think they're second year in. Like, who else is going to be betting minus seven and a half with this chief's team? It feels like very few of us will be taking that number just because it's more comfortable taking the seven and a half plus.

It's never fun where it's like, okay, now we need two scores. Again, that's the key number about seven and a half. That's two scores. That's just not a touchdown. So I can't fault you chat for being sucked in, but that's how the books do it. They get you with those numbers. You know, you say it as if like I'm being a sucker and I'm a square. The Bengals are 100% the square bet at seven and a half.

I'm talking about it as if it's a win. And there's a narrative. I'm only looking at the number, the hook, and the opportunity. I'm just saying it's going to be way different if they're down 20 at half time, not at home, if they're on the road at Arrowhead like they were last time. It's tough. That's a tough number to take. That's just why, like, I've had so many pros reach out to me.

It's like, I hear you. Like, it feels like this weekend's very easy. You take the seven and a half of the bangles and you take the three and a half of the 49ers. And it's my job to take a step back and be like, what are we really doing here? We've got to watch the line movement and that one book that we cannot mention. That's weird that they're getting a ton of money on this seven and a half. and they're just letting it sit there. Like, that is very weird because most books have moved it at this point

because they got the Bengals money. Now they're happy to take Chiefs money where this one book has just been sitting there all week just taking tons and tons and tons of Bengals money. Well, if the line keeps moving and it potentially moves off the six and the seven and it gets to six and a half, then I'll play the Chief six and a half and I'll get a middle. That'd be an amazing hit if you hit that middle. You know? or I'll bet it live.

There's ways to get out of this. Like right now, but to me, every scenario about this plays out with the Bengals having an opportunity to cover, they can be down 14 with a minute and a half left

and carve up the chief secondary and score that touchdown. It's just, this is not two like it was against the bills. It is seven and a half. There's too much in play for that number. The chiefs have to be winning by three touchdowns for this late in the fourth quarter

for this number not to be in play. That's what I'm trying to say to you is that like they're getting you. That this is like a kind of get you kind of number where they know what they're doing. These books know what they're doing. And like I look at this number and I can already tell it's, you probably have a less than 45% chance.

Even if I run the model of covering this number, just in the simple fact that it's too easy. If they're down 14, all you need is a touchdown, on chat and you're going to be covering against the Chiefs, which we know people watch last week, they saw this Chiefs defense give up a ton of yards. They remember the last time these two teams played and bro thrown all over the field. They know what they're doing, buddy. I'm telling you, they're sucking in.

The more I've talked to other pros, the more I've looked at this number, it just feels like such a trap. Live and learn. Well, guess what? You and I are going to be on opposite sides of this one. Good. We'll see how it goes. I'm going to make that my big ball is better than, Chiefs.

Oh, well, you probably should. Yeah, it feels like I'm going to be on island again with this Chiefs team. Like every pro is going to take the Bengals. The big balls bed of the week. Simon, we've never done this before. We've never differed on a big balls bed of the week. But you're on the Chiefs and I'm on the Bengals. It's not going to work out for you.

I just think the difference is I want to be on the Bengals at seven and a half. I'll take the Chiefs minus 10 if that makes you feel better. That's how confident I am in this Chief's number. Wow. Yeah. I think it's a bad number. This number just stinks to me. Like, again, you even have this power rated at like six or six and a half.

That's what I mean. I like, I just see what the book's doing here. It's a trap. Like, it's bad. If all of a sudden come this weekend, 80% of the money and 80% of tickets is on the chiefs, you've hit a home run chat.

Like, you've literally nailed this number. But just watching the line movement, seeing the betting public's coming from, it's like, I feel like they're sucking me in because I know I want to take the bangles. I told you, I think it's a good number for the bang.

and it's like they know what they're doing. Like the public has shifted so much for some reason. They just don't like the chiefs team. Even though we just saw the chiefs doing something we've never seen before, the public's still betting this Bengals team just because they think they're getting such a good number. 87% of the money is on the Bengals. 64% of the bets are on the Chiefs.

That's not one book like you named. It's consensus. So you truly are on an island in this one. It's a good place to be with my homes, buddy. you'll learn baby you'll learn don't don't fucking talk to me that way I've been doing this for 20 fucking years

I've been in the game you're a Johnny come lately you were fucking 11 when I was doing this yeah but who has three cell phones and who has one chat I only need one because I'm not tied to so many people all right I own my time

I own my destiny you got to like you know you're working for people I don't work for fucking anybody. But I also have probably more underlings than you and you own a, you run a company. So it's a little different. As I just said, I just came out of a 22 budget meeting with our CFO and our CEO mapping out like, here's what we got to spend, blah, blah, blah. And at some point, they said something. And I said throughout my career, my only job, manage myself out.

find enough smart people that I become irrelevant. And if they got to fire me, they got to fire me. So I don't want the underlings. I am looking to get people like Matt Mitchell who are so good at their job that I don't even have to ask questions. They just tell me what they're doing. And I'm like, sounds like a good idea. I can confirm that this has been his strategy as I've witnessed it. Yes.

Sounds good to me. And we can just say real quick, we both like the over, right? I think we have to. Probably going to be five to one, six to one the money coming in on it. But Chad just touched on it. We don't think the Chief's defense is that good. And I don't think that Bengals defense is that good. So even if it's like last game, it's only got 40 points headed into the fourth quarter,

we might see another 30 points, 21 points in the fourth quarter. So I love these kind of overs. You're never really out of it. Yeah, this could get ugly. The NFL playoffs are in full gear and everyone can get in on the, action with a risk free bet on Fanduel's sportsbook. It doesn't matter if you are new to Fandual or already have an account. All customers get up to $10 back if your same game parlay doesn't win. Same game parley is let you combine multiple bets from one matchup for a big payout. You can combine

bets on the money line, point spread, player stats, and so much more. This Sunday, I'm considering the 49ers, the under, and Cam Acres rushing yards under. I love betting with Fandul because it has America's number one sportsbook app. It's safe and secure, and it's an official... Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, CliverTaylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need.

to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jette. And I'm Alex In.

English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Sports betting partner of the NFL already have an account. Just place your risk-free same game parlay on any conference championship games to qualify. New customers join today with promo code favorites to get your risk-free bet. Plus, if it's your first time betting,

Fandul, you can enjoy 30 to one odds on any team in the conference championships to win after using promo code favorites. You can turn a $5 bet into $150. That's promo code favorites on the Fandual Sportsbook app. Fandual, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. You must be 21 and over and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia, refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund, $10, restrictions apply. Gambling problem.

Call 1-800 Next-N-800 next step or text. Next step to 53342 in Arizona. 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia. 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat. in Connecticut, 1,800-2707-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-9 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. If you love to be remembered as the person who gives the best birthday gifts, I'm here to tell you that 1-800flowers.com is your ultimate birthday gifting destination.

1-800 flowers has thoughtful and artfully created options that are guaranteed to deliver the best birthday surprise. Shop thousands of unique gifts at 1-800flowers.com for exclusive offers and great values. To order today, visit 1-800flowers.com slash tune-in. That's 1-800flowers.com slash tune-in. What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too. Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this. We reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think.

Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. Look through your children's eyes to see the true magic of a forest. It's a storybook world for them. You look and see a tree. They see the wrinkled face of a wizard with arms outstretched to the sky. They see treasure and pebbles. They see a windy path that could lead to adventure.

And they see you. Their fearless guide is this fascinating world. Find a forest near you and start exploring at discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the ad council. All right. Let's talk about the Niners and the Rams. I am shocked, Simon. We talked about this on Tuesday.

This number is still hanging a fucking meatball out at three and a half. What are the books doing? What are the pros doing? Why is it not moving? I think we touched on it. Like pros, the pros are in on the Rams. A lot of them, the preseason bet them for the Super Bowl.

They bet them again the start of the playoffs. And they just like this team where there's a bunch of us that we bought into the 49ers head into the playoffs. We've bet them every round and we've taken their money line. And we're right there still with them. It's more interesting to me that the public is on the Rams as well. Where I don't know. I guess maybe Jimmy did look that bad against.

Green Bay, but it's like, so to Aaron Rogers. It's a lot to do with the weather, the conditions, like what they're playing with. Again, Green Bay's defense is pretty good. And I'm shocked that the public has just bought into Stafford. And I gave out a stat that it was teams that are 2 and O against teams during the regular season in the playoffs are 14 and 7. I looked it up. They are 3 and 5 on the road, and that said match up.

So if you're going off the, those little trends that does technically goes towards the Rams team. But the more film I break down about when these teams match up, it's just Shanehan really does have McVeigh's number, defensively and offensively. D'emico Ryan's, the last time they played, he really took away what the team wants to do in this Rams team, which is get the ball downfield to Cooper Cup and Odell. Like they like throwing it from 15 to 25. Like that's that's a Stafford's happy place.

And they ran a really nice zone against that. and it just didn't work. And I'm coming back and looking at this number and like Chad just said, why the hell is it still sitting on three and a half? Maybe they just need more, $49ers money because so much more money and tickets have coming on the Rams, but I don't get it either, buddy. It's like literally making me scared because I just think we're getting such a good number.

It's the same thing with that bang with seven and a half. It's like it's a really good number. But I love this one so much more this 49ers team because I can just see this being such a close, slug it out kind of game with these two teams, matchups so well with one another. They know exactly what each each team wants to do. Again, we've heard the stat. He's 6 and 0, Shane, their last six meetings against McVeigh. I'm getting three and a half. The public likes the Rams, the betting, the money, the pros like the Rams. Love it, Chad. Love, love, love, love the 49ers again in this position. I'll take their money

line just because I do believe they'll win, but the three and a half, that's the bet right there. Like, that's such a good key number. Hoping we would get the four, like maybe more big money would come in on this Rams team, but it hasn't happened yet. So, you know, if you've already grabbed the three and a half, just wait. Maybe you'll be able to get that four if more money this weekend comes in on this number because I do believe this is the second game. So by kickoff, it could be up to you four for this 49ers team. Yeah, it's fascinating. I mean, the truth, there's a lot of the logic you're giving me about the Niners applies to the Bengals. The only thing we have here is a significantly larger set of data by which to examine this game.

And everything you said about McVeigh and Shanahan is true. The stats all bear it out. This is a team that against each other, I would say home field is probably worth zero. So in reality, the Rams maybe should be power rated as one, if anything, right? So automatically you're getting two and a half points of value. Shanahan, as we discussed, 18 and 10 is a road dog, 7 and 3 against the spread against McVey, 4 and 0 as a dog against McVey the past two seasons, 6 and 0 the past three seasons, won all five games, when he's been a dog, the past three seasons, Jimmy G, this is great.

I took this from Stucky on the Action Network podcast. 15 and 4 is a dog, 14 and 5 straight up as a dog. best winning percentage of any QB in the Super Bowl era as a dog. And this is a question that I think applies to the Bengals and also applies to Jimmy Jee. At what point does their ability to sort of win on flute plays or win by things that are outside consistency or that are sort of variants that you can't account for become something that you have to account for?

The Bengals keep winning these odd games. based on freak things because Joe Burrow at the end of the game finds a way to get to Jemar Chase and put them in a position to keep it close. Jimmy G keeps winning in these odd games because he finds a way to make the right play or gets put in a position to make the right play at the right time. That's not something you can account for in a model. It's just something you have to account for as the individual. People don't give enough respect to Mahomes.

Like this is just different. This game, Jimmy G. versus Stafford's way different than Joe Burrow versus Mahomes. It's like, was it last year the bills went to go play against the Chiefs and they lost, what was it, was a 38 to 20 in that AFC title game last year. It's like there's something about the first time getting like, we saw how Josh Allen was in that playoff game. No fear.

That dude literally had zero fear in that game this year against that Chiefs team. It's because he had been there. He had done that. Joe Bro ain't ever been there. He ain't ever done that. It's like a perfect storm where they got the nice matchups. He had to play Derek Carr at home, played a sloppy game, but did just enough, got his car confidence built that he went to that Tennessee game, got the shit kicked out of them, and was able to put up 19 points and win.

Like his, that's not going to happen. Mahomes ain't throwing three picks. Like, it's just a lot of stuff is broken for this Bengals team where I think it catches up to him where this 49ers team feels like the Giants team of old. They had, they have more sustainable things. They have the front four like the Giants had that can put pressure on the quarterback. They have the weapon in Debo like they had with Plaxico or the running game with Jacobs, that Giants team. It's like there's little things that relate where that old school Giants team, which is you win with your front four, you have a quarterback that you don't ask to do too much, but it can be clutch in big moments. And coming into the playoffs, the reason I like the 49 year so much was that win against the Rams.

That was a clutch drive and win by Jimmy. Jimmy was down 2417, less than two minutes to go. I think they're on their 10-yard line. He fucking drove that field on the road against that Rams team to make the playoffs. And like, I want to shit on Jimmy because Jimmy is what he is. He's inconsistent. He's not going to win you the games. But he's also been this quarterback that in big, big moments,

he's able to put his team in position to win the game. Like he put Debo in that third and seven spot to run that ball up the right and get that first down. Like, he just puts teams in the right position and gives them the right confidence. So yeah, I get what you're saying, though, Chad. That's why we keep talking about that Bengals game. I can't fault you for liking that back door. It's like, that's a huge number. We've seen this chief defense.

give up plays touchdowns in seconds. Like, Jermar Chase can make the right route. He could take it all the way down the field. And you're right with like a minute to go. They could be down by six or down by seven, like, and cover that number. So that's why I'm not going to fault you that one, but this one, the Rams, I don't see the logic in taking this Rams number, taking the minus three and a half. It's a bad number.

The Rams are a good team, but they just don't match up well against this four-niners team. Like some teams just match up really well. So I hate fading a lot of pros, but there's a couple games at this point. and kind of guys love what they love. So guys love their Rams. I make this line minus two. Rams, I have them winning by my system, but I don't think they're going to win.

I do believe in this 49ers team to cover and win. I'm with you. Simon says, bet the Niners plus three and a half. That was our call on Tuesday. No reason to change it today. Go. Go for the gold.

Go for the gold. Bet the Niners plus three and a half. Oh, this is going to be interesting. Because come Sunday, you and I are not going to have the same record. records. Like, I'm going to be on the Bengals. You're going to be on the Chiefs. We're both going to be on the Niners. Worse case, we're both one and one. Nothing changed for me on the total either. I don't know about you. I still, I like the under. I think it's moved down again.

It's down to, it's down to 46, but still like it. Still like the under. Both these teams will just know these, both these offenses so well. I could just see it being kind of a field goal, close matchup kind of game. That's why like we talk about, I think three and a half is such an important number. It just feels like a. field goal game. But again, if they touched all the way down to 43, 44, I'll start looking over because there's some key numbers. But right now, like the under. All right. So we've decided that our big balls better the week is really just Simon's big balls better the week. It's going to be the chiefs. The flip side is the big balls better the week could be the Bengals plus seven and a half

because we're like going against each other on that. So depending on who you believe in more, depending on whose logic and argument you believed in more on this podcast, you, the listener, your big balls, bad of the week is either the Bengals or the Chiefs. Putting kids against their parents, Chad. How can you do this to our fans? I know. I feel terrible. People have to choose.

All right, Simon, we've done it. We've done all we can do today. We'll be back on Tuesday and we'll know who was right, who was wrong about the Bengals. and the Chiefs, we will have this conversation on Sunday on Convinced Me at Action Network HQ previewing the conference title games 11 a.m. Eastern, you, Chris Rabon, Sean Croner, Dan Ravel, Samantha Pavetti on the news desk. It's all she wrote today, huh? Am I seeing anything? Matt Mitchell, and I'm missing anything? Nailed it. No, you just mentioned that it's difficult to choose between your children in terms of picking a favorite. I mean, every parent knows that that's not true. But beyond that,

Clean show. I didn't say it's difficult to choose your favorite child. I say it's difficult to choose who you're going to go with as a parent. I mean, if there was only one life vest, I feel like we all know which one it would be. But hey, listen, that's just splitting hairs. Why do I feel like you're not going to choose me? Between the two of you, it's Chad, because you'd be so much easier to carry to safety. That's true.

I float, though. I'm Bob. All right. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network downloaded on Spotify, Alka Podcast where you can also rate, review. Give us five stars. Say whatever you want. We don't care. We'll read the meanest ones on air. Until Tuesday. Love you.

Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this Valentine's with 1-800flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries, gourmet treats, and more. Surprise your Valentine with 1-800flowers.com. Right now, get the 18-stem enchanted rose medley for $39.99, or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put it. on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a hear, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild...

It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw unfilts of college. conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.