The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Draft Best Bets

Episode Date: April 24, 2025

The NFL Draft is just hours away, and Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to provide their final bets before Round One begins. Today they are joined by colleagues Chris Raybon and Evan Abrams, who share their insights into what promises to be a tumultuous Thursday night affair. Plus, we hear about the latest specials at bet365 for the big night, a landing spot for Ashton Jeanty, and so much more. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined. As always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadry, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad, we made it, brother. We made it. And I needed it bad. I don't know if you know this, but it is the dark days in Philadelphia with Philadelphia sports right now. We don't have playoffs in hockey. We don't have playoffs in basketball. The Phillies have already been, there's seasons over.

It's only in April. The season's over for Philadelphia, Phillies. So I need this draft. I just need chaos too. So I'm so happy it's here, brother. We're four months away from the start of the season. This will at least hold us over for what? Two weeks, a little draft.

talk so I'm so happy it's here well look it'll be two weeks and then we also get um schedule release yeah and then we get win totals and then we get to start the real work of digging in because we'll know the rosters we'll know the draft picks we'll know the schemes we'll know it all brother what we're going to know today after we talk to our guests is so much more than we know right now Because the 15 minutes we were waiting to go on the air was insane, revelatory, prices are moving. There are rumors everywhere. There are mock tracks that are so contradictory to each other. Nobody knows anything.

We begin the 2025 NFL draft in Green Bay tonight. Today's show has our co-hosts of the Action Network podcast who have been leading that show's NFL draft coverage for the The past two months, two mainstays as guests on the favorites. Chris Rayvon, one of the best fantasy rankers in the history of fantasy rankers. You can also hear him every week on the Fantasy Flex with Sean Kerner, maybe his only equal when it comes to fantasy rankings. And Evan Abrams, a regular director of research. the man who signs authentic jerseys filled with stats

he spews on the show. We're going to get to him in a second. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place the bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets.

Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, total player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky, gambling problem called 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right. Simon, I want to start with you because we had McShay on the show about a week ago. And he mentioned something about Asked

and Gentie, the running back from Boise State, who everyone agrees is a singular talent, except for maybe Matthew Friedman, and his draft prospects have been rising. I know Raybon has a lot of thoughts on Gentie. I know Evan has been combing the catacombs for research on Genty. A lot of opinions about Gentie who seems to be of a pivot point in this draft. Give me and give the audience, our listeners, the intel that you started hearing after McShay came on the show and talked about Gentie. Yeah, I'll give tons of credit to McShay where he came on here. And again, my ears perked up because I had heard people talk a little bit about Genti going outside the top 10. And he was priced that way, right?

When he was on here, he was over under eight and a half, pick eight and a half. And the over, I believe, was like plus 150 at the time. So, you know, minus 200 on the under of eight and a half at that point. It was something around there. He came on here and talked about the possibility of him going to Patriots, which at the time was 16 to 1. Now it's 4 to 1, you know, a week later. So he was really ahead of the market. I took a large position on it just because I believed what he was saying.

I love the dentee talent. I think what really came down to what me and you talked about, just the fact that teams have overreacted, in my opinion, to what happened with the Eagles last year in Saquan. Teams thinks now they think they're running back away where it's just, it's never that easy, right? Chad, we always joke about that. It's not just one piece for most teams. That was a very unique situation.

But in the NFL, we've seen that these teams really do believe that. Now, you know, we're sitting here a week later. He might not go to Patriots, but all of a sudden the Jaguars or that fifth pick, the tradeout position, has become the hot bet. And he is now minus 250 to go, Genti, at pick five, is crazy to think that, you know, just a week ago, he wasn't even supposed to go in the top 10. Now it's big money, minus money, that he's going to be a pick five. And to me, I have two big things I need to happen that I bet on.

I need Sanders to go top 10. That'd be very profitable for me because I've just been betting really high plus numbers. Just the case everyone hasn't been listening. You mean Shador Sanders. Shador Sanders, yes. and Genty to be a top five pick. Like as long as he goes under that six and a half, you know, if he slips past the Raiders,

I'm going to take a big negative on the day. It's really my largest position. And it's, you know, the type of thing where everyone takes position for different reasons. I mainly took a position just because every scout I talked to said he was their number three, number two prospect. Every single one I talk to, Chad. So if I'm getting that info and then someone like Todd McShay

comes on here and says what he says, what he says and then goes on a bunch of other big mainstream shows and start saying the same thing that what he's hearing is Gentie going top five. I feel very lucky that we got him in here early and I was able to bet it really before anyone else. And it's like that's the dream scenario. I told you I bet it the whole weekend. So when people ask about the draft and my betting style with it,

I do bet a lot of stuff, but I try to find one or two edges and just lean into it hard. Like really take a position on it. And then I get caught every now and then. I get caught every now and then. Like me, Chad knows those stories. Bryce Young, my worst call ever. I just, I never thought in any world he'd be the number one pick.

It does happen. So I'm not telling everyone to go out there for your life season here on Gentie being a top five pick. We all sit here and we talk with different people, but at the end of the day, like Chris and I'm sure Evan can attest to it, it's a guessing game down the day, right? We're playing off people's mock.

So I do feel confident, Chad, but you know the deal, brother. I didn't sleep last night. It's a lot of nerves because you're just, you're betting on the what if, not so much what you know. Raybun, you've been loving Gentie for a long time. You guys have been talking about this.

How do you feel about this movement? It is expected. I think I know me and Evan have been kind of talking about kind of taking, like looking at that top of the board. We didn't, there was so much uncertainty, even going back throughout the whole process, kind of take, what's the second most likely thing? I know Dan Back and I talked about

Gentie in March to the Jaguar. at, I think it was something ridiculous, like 50 to 1 or something. Like, they weren't, it was nowhere near what it is now. So I think one of the things with the draft, if, if you've been betting it, like, throughout the process, you're probably in a great spot right now, as Simon alluded to. But now is the time when you really, really, I think, want to fade the consensus. Like, it's not the time about an act of dent. But the reason he's there is he, as he should be, is because,

look at the tea leaves. This is a bad quarterback class. This is a bad draft class in general, according to most scouts. Teams don't have more than probably 10 to 15 first round grades on guys in this whole draft. So what you're seeing is the best players, the cream is rising to the top. And the best players are Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Ashton Jensi, in my opinion. Cam Ward, the Titans are just like, oh, man, Will Elvis on his knees. We can't do that again.

So we got, but Cam Ward's not, he's not the fourth best, you know, prospect in this class. Probably somebody like Mason Graham or something like that. So it's not surprising at all with Gentry rising. But I don't think now is the time you want to be investing in him. I think now is the time where you start hitting up these hype guys and kind of fading the hype of guys like banks who like nothing changed and he's all of a sudden you know like a mock mock him number six and now his over under is like number seven where it was what Evan was like in the 20s uh or it was 13 it was 13 just yesterday at plus money and now it's like seven and a half

at some book so you just got to kind of fade the hype now but jentz he is there because he's he's uh i think he's a top five prospect in this in a week class all right before we get to banks and we're talking about Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas, whose numbers are moving up and his odds are shrinking. Evan, I won, and we're going to get to that conversation. Before we came on the air, you started talking about what some books have been saying about their positioning and what they need tonight related to Gentie. Some of this is universal.

I've heard from a few different ones, but the quote is basically, they're hoping that Gentie falls out of the top five and everything else they'll figure out later. It just seems like everyone has invested in that, whether it's at four, at five, top five. I've even heard some people say, hey, let's take a shot at three. I just think what Raybon said, most talented players, one, two, three, Carter, Hunter, it's gentie at the top. So I just think in a class where the offensive skill position players, including the quarterbacks, are being questioned all over the place. He's just not being questioned.

He's one of the more talented running backs we've seen even enter the NFL. in the last few years. So I just think it's becoming a, what do I want to give up to move up to get him? Or just let someone take the Uber talented guy. So I think right now, if you're giving like gambling advice on this like hours before the draft, I don't think you can invest much into him.

Because again, even at 365 right now, under six and a half is like minus 550. There's just hard to even invest in those areas. And minus 250. Again, and even in the last 24 hours, that five slot, He's gone from 170 to 200 to 250. It just keeps moving up.

So it seems to be the consensus, honestly. Yeah, the movement on a lot of these players has been pretty insane. The other player where there's a ton of movement really on his draft position is Chador Sanders, quarterback from Colorado. Raybon, what have you seen and why do you think this is moving so much? So, yeah, to start the process, there was a time. Shador Sanders was expected to be the number one overall pick. Then he kind of settled in as the, you know, the consensus number two for a while.

And then I think, you know, he worked out for some teams and started sliding a bit. But I just don't think that, again, so the way the draft works for people that aren't familiar is teams have their draft boards and they kind of rate their prospects by round. So they'll be like, all right. You know, we have 10 players with a first round grade. Now, there's 32 have to go in the first round,

but I think it's a situation where a lot of teams have a second round or even lower grade on a Shador Sanders. And so you're just seeing them fall. And I think it's interesting because if you look back at the last 10 years or so, quarterbacks that go in the first round, they only go to teams that they've done a top 30 workout. for. The only time that didn't happen in the first round was in the COVID year where I think he sent the taped workout in to the dolphins or something like that. So Shador, Dart, all these guys could

fall. I think Cam Ward is pretty safe, but I don't think Shador Sanders is a great fit in Pittsburgh. I know people are talking about the intangibles, but that's because everyone's just, it's, they're just looking at team needs where we don't really know the grades that these teams have on guys, but just reading between the lines, no one seems in a rush or no one seems kind of pressed to trade up. So that tells you what these, you know, what they feel about the quarterback class and just the class in general. No one's been able to trade, period, because everyone wants to trade back, because it's better to just take a bunch of shots because no one really likes anyone. So I should always just kind of included in that. I think, I think the

issue with him is arm strength. And that's it. That would be a real issue for Pittsburgh, which is why I don't think he goes 21. And if he doesn't go there, you might just see the second round play out like people thought a month ago or even a couple of weeks ago that the first round would play out where, you know,

Cleveland, it's between Cleveland and the Giants, you know, who gets Shador and who gets Jackson Dart? Because just the quarterbacks as a whole are kind of, kind of fall in. And if other guys are rising, I think it's just kind of fake hype to make up for the fact that, you know,

Shador was at one point expected to go number two. So now you're seeing like, oh, well, maybe Milro takes his place. They're like, it's like, no, just no one likes any of these guys. Cam Ward is the best quarterback and he's me. Like I heard a scout say Mason Rudolph. Mason Rudolph would be the number three quarterback in this class. So that tells you what, what people think about this quarterback class. Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in Shador, top 10.

how did you get there? Just because of the numbers, it was, most books yesterday moved to the 10 and a half at plus 300. I said, okay, I'll take a position. And then it goes to 14.

5 chat plus 300. Got to take another position, I guess. And then it gets up the 21. And it goes, okay, well, we're at this point now.

It's not as juiced up, right? I think the 21. 1.5 was minus 115 when I first saw it. So, you know, you're not getting that crazy value. Obviously with the plus number,

but still better just because, just because of how much is moved. I can easily be caught here, Chad, but my bet is simply on desperation. And, you know, these teams act confident and secure, but we've seen teams panic time and time again when this draft starts. And it is because so many of these guys are thinking future, right?

Like, if you're a GM, Sanders might extend you another year or two of a life because you got this young kid in there, right? You got the young quarterback, and it's all about potential. Like, this is someone that, you know, people I respect, have him great as their number one quarterback.

So when I see that, I'm just like, okay, all it takes is one team to love the kid. That's what I'm betting on. One team to love them, they finally take a position they move either to take them or they take them to the draft spot they have. So my view of this class is, like when I've talked to Scouts, Chad, it's been they love next year. So that's the biggest issue for this class right now is next year's class looks like a juggernaut. It looks like the year before, right?

Like you might have one, two, maybe even three legit QB1 all pros. Where this class, like Chris just said, we would all be shocked if KM Ward ends up being an all pro. I think he could be talented. I think he could be a pro bowler. But like we've heard the ceiling for him is like what people compare him to, Steve McNair. That would be insane if he could reach that potential. But the odds are so slim where the next year's class, there's feels like there's a couple of guys that have a lot more potential. So that's been interesting to me, Chad, talking to these different teams where it's like,

okay, the Browns, they do need a quarterback. Like Chris has said, they might be confident and just waiting to the second round, taking Milro. They might have a different grade than we all know on Sanders, right? They might have him below Dart and Milro. So that's what's so funerary about the betting market. It's like you're hearing so many teams super negative. Are you hearing any much positive, Chad, about Sanders?

No. And that's for a good reason, right? So that's why I love making these type of bets. I'm betting on that dark horse team that's just not saying a word, like the Atlanta Falcons last year, taking appendix when they did, right? No one saw it coming.

That's kind of what I'm banking on here. So, yeah, it's really fun where, like, you know, the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take Sanders at 50 to 1 because I could see in some crazy world, McVeigh loves him, we don't even know. So there's always teams like that. I'll do that, Chad, but it's like, do I have inside info? No, if I did people, we'd be going crazy on here right now.

But yeah, the Sanders chat, to me is interesting. It's all a negative the last two, three days before the draft zero positive, and that's very telling that there are teams out there that love them. They're just playing the game right now. How do we get here? None of this makes sense to me.

And it's so stupid. And these are billion-dollar franchises, right? These are not insignificant businesses that are flying under the radar. And these are decisions that have generational impacts on the success of these teams, the revenue these teams can drive,

the fandom of these teams, the profile of these teams. These are massive decisions. Shador Sanders, during the college football season, everybody's like, oh, this guy's going to be the number one pick. There wasn't even a question, right?

It was like consensus, he's the best, he's the guy we want. it's not like Cam Ward, who had a great year at Miami, was that different of a quarterback at Washington State. He just did it against, you could argue, nominally better competition. It's not like the ACC was so much better than the PAC 12. So why is this thing so fucking flawed? It is so stupid. The entire decision-making process to me, it just,

just feels like Evan, it just feels like we're throwing darts. How are we making any decisions here with any confidence? I think people started, and this is just my opinion, and you guys can disagree or agree, I think they started meeting with Shador, and that's what ended up happening. Like, I think people started to get like a one-on-one experience of talking through the playbook, talking through different things, maybe hearing what he had to say on some of these things. That's when this started to move. Like, no one's done almost anything on the field. No one's done almost anything to move anything, really, aside from having conversations with these players, looking at tape on these players and trying to make, let's call it,

$100 million decisions for billion dollar franchises, right? And I think he's moved from three and a half in terms of his draft position all the way up to 21 and a half. And at the moment, you've got, you know, maybe your top eight mock drafters, four or five of them completely out of the first round. Well, the other one is like, Pittsburgh, shrug emoji. and that's kind of what the other person has said, because at this point,

no one is saying, like Simon said, that they like him. It's all negative energy leading up to the draft, which is completely moving his number up. So, I mean, personally, today, what I would do to bet on it, I mean, I'd probably take a stab on that top 10, but right now the best odds is 3 to 1. So, I mean, maybe New Orleans at 10 to 1, and it all being just a smokescreen.

And, you know, we heard the car stuff yesterday, which was completely strange, completely odd. Like they have no answers. They won't have an answer before the draft. And now we say, well, they need a quarterback. So at 10 to 1, that would probably be the way I'd look at it. But you're right, Chad. I mean, it's really, really strange considering,

I think it's just movement off of conversations and kind of the GMs and coaches being played off a little bit. Like I just don't think they want the circus. I think this is all just all of the draft stuff. and the movement is media generated and prognostication generated. Like, I don't think that these teams are necessarily, you know, here, like, kind of, I don't think there's any, I don't think they're doing it wrong. I think, I think they probably knew the whole time where their draft board it was.

And then it wasn't until people really started laying things out. And everyone was kind of waiting for some domino to, like, oh, I wish there was a trade. So, like, we could kind of get some sense of, like, who's going to go where. literally guys are moving like halfway up and down the board off one mock draft and we're day of the draft day of the draft and dudes who I couldn't even name put out a mock like I'm not like you know what I mean like there's just too many of them but one guy it's not even like okay an overwhelming amount of mocks are doing this it's like okay well well this guy who does moxen like finished in the top 10 that one year but this guy here so we got to move

moving from 13 to 6. Like it's just no one knows anything. The teams knew all along, I think. But I think media, first of all, we're always going to be infatuated with quarterbacks. And when it's early in a process and, you know, you're kind of looking at, okay, well, quarterbacks at the top of the board,

to Simon's point, you're kind of betting on that desperation. But as we've gotten, I think, closer to the draft, I just think we're kind of seeing a lack of desperation in the actions. Like it's not just like, I don't think it's just like a teams, it's like a smoke screen. And, you know, I think the fact that no movement has been able to happen, no trades have been able to happen just tells you that teams don't have a lot of first-round grades and no one's really trying to trade up for anyone. Everyone's kind of comfortable where they are, just letting the board fall to them

because there's not really a lot of upside and less. the real reports have been Hunter and Gentie and Cam Ward. So it makes sense. The top quarterback who's probably in a tier above everyone else and then just top prospects. So I think the team's new all along, but it was just kind of the media. And the media hype drives it.

And it's still driving this crazy movement. And we're hours out. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own.

podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys. remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,

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The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs' tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening. at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.

Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. McShay alluded to this last week. There really is no upside for any GM, any scout, any executive, to give anybody in the media who covers the draft any real information.

So it's all dependent upon us believing that somebody has a good enough relationship that they're getting directional content. They're never going to get real content. And more than likely, they're getting shitty content. And so, you know, Ray Bonn, you mentioned Kelvin Banks earlier in the show. This is a guy who, the tackle from Texas, was not listed anywhere as the top overall offensive line prospect. It has been Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell, Will Campbell.

all of a sudden, Evan, you can tell us the numbers. Kelvin Banks could be going as high as number six to the Raiders at this point. What has the movement been like for him? But he's a very good example of Raybon what you're talking about. Evan, give us the numbers. Yeah, it's been consistent movement, honestly. And each week, me and Raybon do the action podcast, Banks has been like the conversation every time because it's been steady. So he opened a 24 and a half.

Even just yesterday on Bet365, he was at 13.5. But ends up 13 and a half over plus 350, ends up moving to now 7.5 at over and even odds. So, I mean, at this point, we're just trying to, I don't want to call it randomly, but we're just selecting offensive tackles at this point to put into that. I've seen MEPA with that six lot. As soon as we heard Genting going five,

I think everyone is trying to figure out what the heck the Raiders are going to do. especially because it's a new Raiders, there's Brady involved, there's Kara. I just think we don't know this Raiders team. So I think trying to figure out what's going on there. But Banks, a ton of mock drafts, it Genty doesn't go five. I think he'll go six, I think. But if he goes five, I think Membu, Banks are both the possibilities there. But I think if I look at it right, I think Banks has been the biggest mover up out of almost anyone.

Second's probably McMillan, but right now it's Banks. The numbers are crazy. I sent a screenshot to Raybon and our producer Matt Mitchell last night. Banks was minus 1,200 to go top 10 at a certain book at that point. It's just the movement's insane. And nothing has happened. That's what's crazy. That's why I tell people should fit.

Like, Evan, you were talking about Banks being like the number two tackle at what, like 10 to one odds and greater than that. Like you were high on banks when he was still, people were still mocking him as a guard. Now all of a sudden, he's at the top tackle. Like, what? This is, nothing has happened. No one, he didn't block anyone. Like, what are we doing?

Well, this is what I love about the draft. And I do want to get to, Simon, you've laid out your positions. But Raybine and Evan, I want, I want you to recap positions for people. Shemar Stewart, defensive end from Texas A&M, you know, he's got four and a half career sacks in three seasons. but he tested as the best athlete at the combine. He's either Mike Mamula, who old heads will remember Mike Mamoula, who was a defensive end at Boston College who had done nothing, went to the combine and all of a sudden became a top 10 pick for the Philadelphia Eagles

because his athleticism so wowed every single scout there. Or, you know, the Wall Street Journal, which you guys know I love the sports section of the Wall Street Journal, they had a story this morning about Stuart where, you know, people are grading him as anything from Javan Curse, who was an athletic freak who played for the Titans to Miles Garrett, who is going to be in the Hall of Fame for the Cleveland Browns. But the guy didn't do anything in college. And the response you get is, well, it wasn't a scheme. It wasn't a system that was conducive to him doing anything. Why can anyone say that? And everyone accepts that.

without any pushback whatsoever. If the guy is that good of an athlete, in college football, what coach isn't building the system to take advantage of a guy who can dominate like that? You don't make a guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line. You make him the focal point of the defensive line.

This makes no sense to me. Simon, explain it to me. Because you're going from it from just one perspective, where it does work out that way, where you're taking the potential. And I get where you're coming from check, is there are, in my opinion, way more misses than hits. But when you do hit on the right type of potential,

it's like you got an all-time or all pro. Like my favorite ever always be the Jordan Maelotta. Like a guy played rugby was a nobody. The Eagles had them on their board. So we can get this kid in the seventh round. He's some Australian guy that plays rugby, he's 18, he's biggest shit, we'll turn him into a left tackle. Now he's probably number one, number two best left tackle.

I know what you're saying, Chad, but I'm saying, Dad's drafted on potential where, like you're saying the first round, to me, I'm with you, that the risk isn't the same. You're taking a guy, a potential of the first round of that grade of risk. It is not the same, but these teams talk themselves into it, Chad, because they see these guys work out and they say, well, we have much better coaching. Like right there's not this kid's not wasting time going to class. He's going to be in here working putting the work in. We're like you're saying, it doesn't work that way.

So I'm with you. I hate it, but I get why they do it because for every, you know, four or five misses, the one team that does it on the one guy, it's, it's huge in football, right? It's game changing potential. So I'm with you. It's tough. But, you know, there's this draft class, like we're talking about here, Chris said it's a weak draft class.

To me, I love that. this draft class because they're they're all feels like the same type of level like you can get really good guys at pick 42 45 as these teams reaching right now a pick seven pick six so to me it's really interesting like we're talking about you're like will campbell some people chat don't even have him as a first rounder because of his arms like that's what I'm saying this is crazy that this can might go pick four and you have some scouts have a second round grade on them because of potential So yeah, this is going to be a crazy draft class. I can tell you that from just the get-go.

You get some great second-rounders in the first round this year. I think that's true, though. I think that's why the trading back is so interesting right now because I think other teams are looking at the board and saying themselves, okay, well, we can draft at 11 or 12 or 13, or we can try to double up and triple up and get more players. Because I do think it's a little bit level. Like, look at the defensive line.

You have like 7, 8, 9 defensive linemen who could be going in the first, first round. And I'm sure teams grades are all over the place. Like even Stewart is fifth or sixth if you look at order on some mock draft. So it's just about preference. I think a preference draft is a real good way to kind of cap it. And you're going to take more risks in a year like this. So Stewart, like listen, the top quarterback and in the second quarterback definitely, some teams I don't think have a top 50 grade on Stewart Sanders, Kat McMillan, the same thing was said about him. He's the consensus number one. one receiver. And then the minute they said that about him, the next day, all of a sudden,

teams in the top six are, are, are, are going to draft. That's a, that's complete damage control. Like, to your point about, you know, there's a lot of, the media is kind of being used as, you know, mouthpieces. So that's why I'm, I'm just kind of like, anti, you just got to kind of fade the consensus. And the earlier you start doing it in the process, the better positions you're going to have. But, um, oh man, this is just a great, a great draft for kind of going to against the grain because I think teams legit have like eight to 12 first round grades, if that. So it can go any which way.

All right. Well, I want to get into Raybon to what your thoughts are right now. I just say one more thing before I ask you that question is, if the Bears draft Shamar Stewart, I am going to freaking lose it because we know the bears need a defensive end. And if this is how they decide to spend their draft capital, I will freak out. Also, we're pouring one out.

RIP. Steve McMichael, 1985 Bears, legend. Raybon, give me your... I'm not supposed to say real quick, Chad, but that's our point, though, is you can get at the end of the second round. That's why, like, this class is so fun. Let's get Schmarer Stewart in the second round. Let's not get it at number 10.

That's all just say for your drafting style. Like, you not wanting to draft on someone that only gets four sacks in college, you don't want to draft that potential. There are more than half the GMs are legit your drafting style, Chad. So you're not an island there, right? So people might think Chad's being all. basis. He's not. Like, there's a lot of guys to think the exact same way, but there's always going to be that young punk, right? The new guy with this computer that's going to come in and be like,

no, the numbers say this and they say that. So, yeah, I just want to get both perspective that I agree with Chad, that I draft the same way. I would never draft someone that's not a football player first. That to me is the biggest thing. I want an athlete, all that, but I want a football player first. So I think Chad's the same way. Listen, Chad loves hitting home runs. Chad loves being a genius for finding a diamond in the rough. I'm looking at three people that I have hired over the course of my career who had no business doing any of the jobs that I hired them for. And it turns out they were genius, genius moves.

Home runs. But Chad knows that home runs are really hard to hit. And Chad knows that at the end of day, if you're building a team, you've got to have a lot of people who are really good at what they do and have proven. that they're really good at what they do. And have proven they can deliver at high numbers over an extended period of time if you're going to spend the money.

Chad understands these things. Samar Stewart. Shamar Stewart. Chad would not be making Samar Stewart first round pick. Ray Bonn, give me your best bets right now. Okay, so we're doing this, you know, all the day to draft. So a bunch of over-unders are kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've been attacking today.

So I'll run through some pretty quick. Calvin Banks Jr. over pick seven and a half at even money. He's still probably the consensus across all marks. He's still at 13. But I think 10 is probably a much more realistic, even if you want to bind to the hype. But it's all hype. Then I got Ted McMillan over pick 12 and a half at plus 160. I think he's at best probably a 50.

50 shot to go to the Cowboys. We don't even know if they prefer him to Golden. And I think the stuff about the Jags and the Raiders, that was all just damage control after you had, and like, mock drafters saying they had, they had low grades on him and you had teams,

reportedly teams saying they barely had him crack in the top 50. So I think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson. under pick 24 and a half. I think that the slide has been too crazy. I mean, he was going in the top 10 at some points. And nothing's really changed,

but all of a sudden, you know, now he's like, he's not even going to crack the top 24th. I think that's crazy. And then Milro overpick 38 and a half. I mean, we're talking about the QB2 falling out of the first round.

I think it's more of a indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that, like Anthony Richardson light is going to dart up people's draft board. So fade in him. And one more, Ameca of Buka, this one probably makes me the most nervous, but over picked 26 and a half at plus 122

or over picked 29 and a half at plus 215. I just, most times I've seen him mocked have been like picked 30, 31, 32, or just out of the first round completely because I, there's still a lot of potential to kind of jockey for that jockeying for a position with the quarterback situations. And there's still, I think, more defensive players that there's going to be runs on positions, you know, like corner and edge rush kind of coming to an end where teams are going to feel comfortable kind of waiting on him. So like him to not crack the top 30 either.

I think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions are a bit inflated in this, in this draft, top to bottom in the first round. Ev, I want to get your latest as well, but let me ask the group right now. Based on what we're hearing about Sanders, what you just said about Milro,

Raybon, like if the number two rated passer isn't even may fall out of the first round, what do we think of under two and a half quarterbacks taken in the first round? I'm a fan. It's probably just not the best

way to attack it because there is the possibility that, you know, they, like, just if one team trades up, then another team might have to trade up just to make sure because New Orleans is looming. But, yeah, I think it's probably more likely than not that it's round two is what we thought round one was going to be and no one moves like anywhere. The interesting thing is I think, I was just saying, I think Raymond hit on that, though. I've been betting this draft with him for like over a month now. And I don't think I've touched that market of the two and a half quarterbacks.

Because I think there's just different ways to play it. But if I had to bet it, I'd probably say under two and a half. Just going through some of my bets, though. I've been betting SEC players over 14 and a half for a while now. It's under 2 to 1. Under 1 to 2, so it's minus 1.95, minus 190. I don't have to go through all the players. But I do think 15 is the record.

It would tie the record. And I see at least 15, 16 getting in there. So that's one bet I like. I was with Raybon on Banks. Listen, I've got banks top 10 at like 7 to 1, 6 to 1. So at this point, over 7.5 is it going to be the way that I'm at least going to get back into the market to play it the other way a little bit. Some first round bets I like. So I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now.

I got him at minus 230, minus 250. He's up to like 350 in some places. But there is a book out there that'll let you like parlay first round picks. So I think there's at least an ability to put him in a parlay to potentially do something. The other one I like is Chavon Revell. He was 3 to 1 yesterday to get in the first round, quarterback. It's now plus 180. I think anything above like plus 150 range is still something I would consider.

And the other one I keep betting and listen, I don't know because the odds keep coming down, but I'm still a fan is Hampton to be the second running back. I just have him over Henderson in almost every scenario. It's down to like minus 250. I've seen minus 230. I still think at 20 at Denver. and even if they both fall to the end of the first round or second round, I still see Hampton as a better option.

So right now, those are probably the ones I would consider. I will say this. Yesterday, I took some dart throws on McMillan at 9 and McMillan at 10. Complete dart throws. 18 to 1 at 9, 25 to 1 at 10. They are both now 16 to 1 and under. So him kind of falling or being, I know the trade up is kind of crazy at this point, but in those slots seem to be getting some momentum.

I have some specials, but we can talk about that in a second. Those are direct from Bet365. But right now, again, a lot has moved, but those are probably the bets. Simon, anything to add other than what we've discussed? Yeah, I would say from the beginning of the show, what Chris said about, you know, all this crazy movements off people's very late mock drafts of the last couple of days. embrace it. Like they're talking about the banks play,

go against the norm. And that quarterback movement to me is incredibly interesting, Chad, because it was up to what, minus 350, the over on quarterbacks in the first round. So that is either they're moving that off air or someone incredibly smart

with a lot of money and knows what's going on in the league took a position, the books respected and moved off it. Now, more often not in the draft, Chad, they move off air. I'm probably going to be patient.

I'm going to hope the public keeps filing. I'm probably going to bet the over two and a half, and I'll probably bet the over three and a half, just because I know next year's draft class is really strong with the quarterbacks, but we've seen these teams trade back into the first round to get the quarterback just because of the fifth year option, right? Like, you know, how many times have we seen that happen?

I'll bank on that, but I do agree where it's like, we're going to know pretty quick, right? If Sanders falls the 21, Chad, I'm probably going to eat that bet. That's probably a dead bet because if Pittsburgh or any of these teams pass on him and he falls out of the first, I'm going to need to get really lucky on Dart and Millrow to hit this bet. So it really is a bet where I'm, like I said in the beginning of the show, I'm heavy on betting on Sanders, heavy on Gentia.

I need a little bit of luck with Sanders here because every move I've made, it's gone against me. It just keeps going down. So, yeah, the people to know, I know Chris will say something here. That might be way off on Sanders. No, what I was going to say is another position that I'm kind of really strong on is Sanders not to go to Pittsburgh. I think even people that are mocking him there, and that's what a lot of the books are kind of moving off to Simon's point. They're just saying like Pittsburgh just needs a quarterback and we don't know what else to do. So we're mocking him there, right?

Yeah. He just makes the least sense from a skill perspective given the receivers they have. And I know now they're talking about trading pickin, so who knows. But I think that it's very, again, he didn't work out for them. It just doesn't happen that teams end up going with a quarterback who they didn't do any pre-draft work with. And on top of that, Pittsburgh could have a deal with Aaron Rogers in place. And they just don't want to tip their hand. And Aaron Rogers doesn't want to deal with like, you know, more camp and media questions and stuff and picking those questions.

And so they might, who knows. But I just don't, I think that's a great way to fade some of like this in a smart way. It's like, giants plus 650. You could get as high to draft standards. And the Browns, you could still get it plus five here. If Pittsburgh passes on him, the second round might literally just be what we thought the first round was going to be for most of the process, where it's the Browns or the Giants. And one of them takes dart and one of them takes standards.

And I think that's a really smart way to attack it. because I just do not think that Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense for Shador. With that thought process, Milro probably slides as well, which is why the 38 and a half that you posted, I think is interesting because if you believe that they slide, he's going to slide as well. Yeah, I'm hearing stuff about Shuck. We're here.

And, like, Milro teams have probably second, third round grade on him. But, yeah, like, if you just look at the draft order, who's really trying to trade up for him even in that? Like, it just doesn't, And none of this quarterbacks are usually just inflated. There's the one odd year where sometimes a bunch of quarterbacks go, but generally speaking, and books can choose who they post.

And like, you don't see overrunners on like Conrally or guys like fringe first rounders that you could, that would kind of take the place of some of these inflated guys. So just don't get quarter of a height. You would agree that, Chris, there's so many teams you wouldn't be shocked. Like the Jets taking Sanders at seven.

Oh, yeah. Wouldn't shock you just because there are a desperate. a team with a crazy owner. So like there's a lot of that where it's like there are teams who need quarterbacks. Justin Fields, he's not the answer to the Jets future, right? So I do think that part's interesting. There was a bunch of dark horse teams who don't even know about that could just, you know,

take one of these quarterbacks. Guys, in less than 24 hours, we're going to know the answers. Unless they're going to be geniuses. We might not know. Yeah, Shador, we may not know. But yes. You might not know. If you have to know anything about any quarterback who you talked about it.

If Chajor hasn't been drafted, we'll know a lot more than we did right now. That's fair. As a reminder, Steelers just moved to minus 150 to take Sanders. So that number's moving. That number's moving. That number's moving. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. New Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5.

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